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302. China and Afghanistan: China's Interests, Stances, and Perspectives
- Author:
- Huasheng Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- China holds clear, coherent, but relatively low-profile positions on Afghanistan. While staying largely with the mainstream of the international community on the issue of Afghanistan, China maintains an independent policy that reflects the peculiarities of Chinese interests, concerns, and priorities in Afghanistan. China has multiple interests in Afghanistan; however, domestic concerns about the security and stability of the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang overwhelm all others. China maintains normal and good relations with the Afghan government, takes active part in the country's economic rebuilding, and provides Afghanistan financial aid and other assistance. China supports the international community in its efforts in Afghanistan, but stays away from direct military involvement. China refrains from criticizing America's involvement in the war in Afghan- istan, but it doubts the war's efficacy, and China refuses to join the American Northern Distribu- tion Network (NDN) to Afghanistan. China dislikes the Taliban because of its close relations with the “East Turkistan” organization—a Uyghur separatist group—but China deals with the Taliban cautiously, trying to avoid direct conflict. China favors an Afghanistan governed by Afghans and hopes that the “Kabul process”—the transition to greater Afghan responsibility and ownership in both security and civilian areas—will have a successful end. At the same time, China also prepares for unexpected outcomes.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, China, and Asia
303. Country Forecast: Global outlook
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Middle East
304. Refining the Story of the Financial Crises in Europe and the USA
- Author:
- Murat Yülek and Anthony Randazzo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- A significant amount of research has already been made about the financial crisis. But a midterm primer is nevertheless necessary; it is critical to assess the nature of the crises to ensure that the proper lessons are learned. This article aims to present a history on the causes of the financial crisis that first emerged in the U.S. in 2007. Then it will analyze the roots of the current state of the economic crisis in Europe and the U.S. It will also assess the effects of the crises on the European and American economies. Consequently, a range of topics are discussed in the article, some of which have received deeper treatment elsewhere in economic literature, but have not been pieced together to provide a coherent past and present picture of the situation. The article concludes briefly on how this story relates to today's economic environment and the next steps that need to be taken going forward.
- Topic:
- Economics and History
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
305. Turkey Between Environmental Protection and Energy Security : A Regional Perspective
- Author:
- Çiğdem Üstün
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The debate on the future of the Turkish-American partnership has puzzled scholars in recent years due to its constant fluctuations. In the first year of the Obama administration, the parties tried to heal relations with high level exchanges and a new conceptual framework to define the relationship. However, in 2010 the discord between the US and Turkey on major policy issues, including Iran and relations with Israel, once again strained bilateral relations. With the Arab Spring, the pendulum swung once again. Since the eruption of the people's movement in different parts of the Middle East, Turkey and the US have acted in coordination, and taken similar positions in debates in international forums. The Obama administration announced a new Asia- Pacific strategy, which will entail the concentration of its diplomatic, military, and economic resources to build partnerships and curb emerging threats in this region. This new doctrine may have a major impact on US relations with Turkey by opening up new opportunities for cooperation and new necessities to deepen the partnership.
- Topic:
- Security and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific
306. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights
- Author:
- Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia
307. "Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns"
- Author:
- Patrick Johnston
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Targeting of militant leaders is central to many states' national security strategies, but does it work? What should policymakers expect when armed forces capture or kill militant leaders? Is leadership decapitation more likely to succeed or fail under certain conditions? These questions have never been more pressing than after the May 2011 killing of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. As relevant as these questions are to current U.S. policy and strategy, they are also fundamental questions of asymmetric warfare. They matter because almost all policies of "high-value" targeting require difficult judgments concerning both the potential consequences and the opportunity costs of targeting militant leaders. The decision to target enemy leaders requires that policymakers adjudicate among numerous difficult, and potentially contradictory, choices. Leadership targeting strategies affect how states allocate scarce military, intelligence, and economic resources; how they construct their counterinsurgency or counterterrorism postures; and how interested foreign and domestic audiences react to their behavior.
- Topic:
- Economics and Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- United States
308. Energizing Rio+20: How the United States Can Promote Sustainable Energy for All at the 2012 Earth Summit
- Author:
- Nigel Purvis and Abigail Jones
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Worldwide, about 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity (one in five people), while unreliable electricity networks serve another 1 billion people. Roughly 2.7 billion—about 40 percent of the global population—lack access to clean cooking fuels. Instead, dirty, sometimes scarce and expensive fuels such as kerosene, candles, wood, animal waste, and crop residues power the lives of the energy poor, who pay disproportionately high costs and receive very poor quality in return. More than 95 percent of the energy poor are either in sub-Saharan Africa or developing Asia, while 84 percent are in rural areas—the same regions that are the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Asia
309. U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership
- Author:
- Stephen J. Hadley, Steven A. Cook, and Madeleine Albright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Among the most important developments in international affairs of the past decade is the emergence of Turkey as a rising regional and global power. Turkey has long been an important country as a stalwart member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspirant to European Union (EU) membership, and an important link between the West and the East. Yet the changes in Turkey over the past decade have been so dramatic—with far-reaching political and economic reforms, significant social reforms, and an active foreign policy—that the country is virtually unrecognizable to longtime Turkey watchers. Today Turkey is more democratic, prosperous, and politically influential than it was five, ten, and fifteen years ago.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East
310. State-controlled entities control nearly US$ 2 trillion in foreign assets
- Author:
- Karl P. Sauvant and Jonathan Strauss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Developing country sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as players in the world foreign direct investment (FDI) market have received considerable attention. While outward FDI from emerging markets has indeed risen dramatically, that by SWFs has been negligible: their outward FDI stock is around US$ 100 billion (compared to a world FDI stock of US$ 20 trillion in 2010).
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Law, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
311. Beyond Federalism: Estimating and Explaining the Territorial Structure of Government
- Author:
- Liesbet Hooghe and Gary Marks
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- This paper suggests that the basic distinction between federal and unitary government has limited as well as served our understanding of government. The notion that variation in the structure of government is a difference of kind rather than degree has straight-jacketed attempts to estimate the authority of intermediate government. One result has been the claim that a country\'s footprint, not its population, is decisive for government. Analyzing data for 39 countries since 1950, and comparing our own findings with those of alternative measurements, we find evidence for the causal effect of population. This can be theorized in terms of a trade-off between responsiveness to soft information and per capita economies in public good provision.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States
312. The Quest for Political Reform in Azerbaijan: What Role for the Transatlantic Community?
- Author:
- Anar Valiyev
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As Azerbaijan celebrates its 20th anniversary of independence, democratic development remains a key challenge facing the country. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan successfully coped with immediate problems such as poverty reduction and economic and political stability, the need to reform the public administration and decentralize governance has become particularly urgent. The main problems, however, remain the same: low public trust in institutions, the absence of a democratic political culture and the lack of bridging social capital. In this regard, the assistance of the Transatlantic Community is necessary. The European Union and the United States should pursue a developmental approach to democracy promotion in Azerbaijan, which has higher chances to succeed than a more explicitly political approach, considering the weak institutional capacity in the country.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Poverty, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Azerbaijan
313. How to Promote International Religious Freedom
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- President Obama's 2009 Cairo speech and Secretary Clinton's 2012 speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace persuasively argued for policies that promote international religious freedom (IRF), including links to national security, economic development, and democracy promotion, and as an antidote to religious extremism and terrorism. Unfortunately, current IRF policy--in place since 1998 and largely built around the threat of economic sanctions which no administration has been willing to use--is not up to the challenges or the opportunities that President Obama and Secretary Clinton so eloquently identified. To correct that, the White House needs to embrace a leadership role, building an infrastructure and providing the necessary resources for a reinvigorated policy of new tools and strategies to thrive. The need is pressing.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Economics, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
314. How to Protect and Expand Internet Freedom
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- The rapid development of the Internet presents profound opportunities and challenges for U.S. interests around the world, particularly around the promotion and protection of human rights. The Internet is the steward of our economic, social, and political activity, but clearly the Internet itself is not the advocate for its possibilities: governments are. How the U.S. government organizes itself and collaborates with the businesses in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector to create policies and priorities for the Internet will set the foundation of whether the Information Age will be a success story for human rights.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Science and Technology, International Affairs, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- United States
315. Integration of Low-Skilled Immigrants to the United-States and Work-Family Balance
- Author:
- Magali Girard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- The role played by immigrants in the American economy is well documented and, to a lesser extent, the effect of the migration experience on the families of immigrants. However, little is known of the connections between work and family when it comes to immigrants, especially immigrants in low-skilled jobs, whether it is the effect of labour market experiences on the family or the effect of family patterns on integration into the labour market. Yet, the issue of balancing personal life with professional responsibilities is of growing interest among scholars and policy makers, given the increasing participation of women in the labour market, the increase in non-standard work and the high proportion of immigrants in these work arrangements.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- United States
316. Managing Migration and Integration: Europe and the US
- Author:
- Philip Martin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Most Americans and Europeans in opinion polls say that governments are doing a poor job of selecting wanted newcomers, preventing the entry and stay of unwanted foreigners, and integrating settled immigrants and their children. This seminar reviewed the evidence, asking about the economic and socio-political integration of low-skilled immigrants and their children.
- Topic:
- Economics, Migration, Immigration, Governance, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
317. Reshaping the Security Order in Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Alain Guidetti
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The international strategic landscape is evolving at an unprecedented pace. The widespread assumption is that the global balance of power is shifting from the West to the East (and the South), as a consequence of the convergence of two variables: the sustained economic growth of China and Asia over recent decades, and the Western economic downturn since the 2008 global financial crisis. Though interpretations differ on the meaning and magnitude of this power shift, the prevailing assumption is that it reflects the weakness, and for some the relative decline, of the US and the West against Asia's and primarily China's strong rise. The implications of these developments across the Asia-Pacific are deep and have already led to growing strategic competition between Beijing and Washington for preeminence over the Asia-Pacific and new uncertainties over global and regional governance.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Beijing, Asia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
318. Irak 2012
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- Termination of the US military presence in Iraq at the end of 2011, bring some problems for Iraq on military, domestic politics and economic area. Just a few months later US military withdrawal, escalating political tension began to delimitate coalition government built on a fragile structure and at the same time has led to emergence of some struggles with in the country. Discourses or expectations of many Iraqi leaders that Iraq will be saved from the problems which he faced and even new independent era will start with the year of 2012 have been turned upside down because of violence and political instability occurring at the beginning of this new independent era. Bombings, political and military strife between ethnic groups, struggle between national government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and particularly worsening of Iraq-Turkey relations forced Baghdad government to waste large part of its energy on these issues. In addition to this, natural resources having strategic importance for economic developments and Iraq's future stand out as a shaping factor of Iraq's foreign and domestic politics.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
319. What's Wrong with Dodd-Frank 1502? Conflict Minerals, Civilian Livelihoods, and the Unintended Consequences of Western Advocacy
- Author:
- Laura E. Seay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Although its provisions have yet to be implemented, section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is already having a profound effect on the Congolese mining sector. Nicknamed “Obama's Law” by the Congolese, section 1502 has created a de facto ban on Congolese mineral exports, put anywhere from tens of thousands up to 2 million Congolese miners out of work in the eastern Congo, and, despite ending most of the trade in Congolese conflict minerals, done little to improve the security situation or the daily lives of most Congolese. In this report, Laura Seay traces the development of section 1502 with respect to the pursuit of a conflict minerals-based strategy by U.S. advocates, examines the effects of the legislation, and recommends new courses of action to move forward in a way that both promotes accountability and transparency and allows Congolese artisanal miners to earn a living.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Democratic Republic of the Congo
320. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions
- Author:
- Shanker A. Singham
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil
321. A new economic nationalism? Lessons from the PotashCorp decision in Canada
- Author:
- Sandy Walker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- In its World Investment Report 2011, UNCTAD reported that liberalizing investment policy measures taken globally in 2010 outnumbered restrictive measures. Without the benefit of statistics, investors might have drawn the opposite conclusion, witnessing what appears to be a rising tide of national resistance to foreign takeovers: the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board's rejection of a takeover of the Australian Securities Exchange by the Singapore Exchange, Italian concern over a French company's takeover of dairy giant Parmalat and the US Government's requirement that Chinese company Huawei divest certain assets it had acquired from 3Leaf.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Canada, Australia, and Singapore
322. The Consolidation of the Anglo-Saxon/European Consensus on Price Stability. From International Coordination to a Rule-Based Monetary Regime
- Author:
- Arie Krampf
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- During the 1990s, a consensus consolidated among policy makers and economists worldwide regarding the desirability of very low inflation targeting. So far, this process has been explained on the basis of a domestic- functional thesis, according to which commitment to very low inflation provides local economic gains with no costs. In this paper, I present an alternative explanation, according to which the global norm of very low inflation targeting was consolidated as a political solution to the problem of exchange rate misalignment and volatility. I argue that policy makers in Germany and the US believed that convergence of monetary policies and inflation rates, in addition to liberalization of financial markets, will stabilize exchange rates without the need for direct coordination. The paper employs the theory of liberal intergovernmentalism as a benchmark to explain the choice of the European and the G-5/7 countries to establish a low-inflation rule-based international monetary regime. The paper concludes that the regime of very low inflation targeting was consolidated as a politically viable solution to a political problem rather than as an economic best practice. Furthermore, it concludes that the norm of very low inflation targeting was a “corer solution” that neglected the problem of exchange rate stability.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
323. Presidential Economic Advisers Forum 2012
- Author:
- R. Glenn Hubbard and Jeffrey Liebman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum event will feature debate-style dialogue between R. Glenn Hubbard, senior economic adviser to Governor Romney and Jeffrey Liebman, senior economic adviser to President Obama, as they speak on economic policies proposed by the Republican and Democratic candidates for the presidency. Columbia faculty members Sharyn O'Halloran, Joseph Stiglitz, and Michael Woodford will serve as panelists for the discussion, with Chrystia Freeland, Global Editor-at-Large at Thomson Reuters, as moderator.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Politics, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
324. Independence day: A special report on North America's oil and gas boom
- Author:
- Martin Adams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- The bulk of the world's proven oil reserves are concentrated in places that are hostile to the West, unstable or a combination of the two. Since the US is the world's largest importer of oil, concerns about energy security have long simmered in Washington. On top of this, global oil prices have hit new highs in recent years and remained persistently strong. This adds to anxieties about the security of energy supplies and places a burden on the US economy. Partly as a result of elevated prices, however, something new—and, arguably, revolutionary—has happened.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
325. Forging a New Strategic Partnership between Canada and Mexico
- Author:
- Perrin Beatty and Andrés Rozental
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Both Canada and Mexico are recovering well from the global economic recession of 2008-2009, but must work harder to make their bilateral relationship work to their mutual benefit. Bilateral trade and investment have grown steadily from very low pre-North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) levels, but there remains enormous, untapped potential, particularly in Mexico. Student, tourist, investor and temporary worker exchanges are enhancing familiarity with each other, but unhelpful stereotypes remain common. New investment and trade opportunities should flow from the new Mexican administration's commitment to open up the energy sector to foreign participation. The assessment and recommendations contained in this special report point to the benefit of efforts that will intensify bilateral partnerships, not only in their own right, but also in strengthening the two countries' ability to deal more effectively with the United States in pursuing matters of mutual concern.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
326. Canada-US Arctic Marine Corridors and Resource Development
- Author:
- James Manicom, John Higginbotham, and Andrea Charron
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The shrinking Arctic ice cap is creating unprecedented geophysical change in the circumpolar region, a trend that is very likely to continue. Together, this “great melt” and the delineation of extended national economic zones afford increased access to economic resources in the Arctic Ocean. Intense activities in commercial, investment, diplomatic, legal, scientific and academic sectors abound in the new Arctic, but the region's long-term significance is only gradually penetrating North American public consciousness. Media reports such as the recent, virtually ice-free trans-polar transit of a Chinese icebreaker through the Russian Northern Sea Route, or the transit of the Northwest Passage by a large cruise ship, are only the tip of the proverbial economic iceberg. In preparing for the commercialization of the Arctic Ocean, Canada and the United States, as major nations bordering the Arctic, face enormous opportunities in protecting economic and environmental interests; however, a number of challenges impede the fulfillment of this vision.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Canada, and North America
327. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances and Generational Accounts: A 2012 Update
- Author:
- Jagadeesh Gokhale
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Official federal budget accounts are constructed exclusively in terms of current cash flows – receipts from taxes and fees and outlays on purchases and transfers. But cash-flows do not reveal economically relevant information about who benefits and who loses from government policies. Cash flows also do not reveal how changes in government's policies redistribute resources within and across generations, including reducing the tax burden on today's generations and increasing it on future ones. Because most government transact ions are targeted by age and gender, the federal government can bring about large resource transfers across generations. Intergenerational resource transfers will grow larger as the composition of budget receipts and expenditures changes with relatively faster growth of age-and-gender-related social insurance program. Intergenerational redistributions across generations through federal government operations could substantially affect different generations' economic expectations and choices and exert powerful long-term effects on economic outcomes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Health, Human Welfare, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
328. Central Banks: Reform or Abolish?
- Author:
- Gerald P. O'Driscoll Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Advocates of central bank reform must examine why central banks emerged and what forces sustain them. They did not arise in an institutional vacuum, and will not be reformed in an institutional vacuum. The historical origins of central banks explain how they came into existence. The forces sustaining and feeding their growth may differ from those explaining their origin.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
329. The Misuse of Top 1 Percent Income Shares as a Measure of Inequality
- Author:
- Alan Reynolds
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- This paper confirms recent studies which find little or no sustained increase in the inequality of disposable income for the U.S. population as a whole over the past 20 years, even though estimates of the top 1 percent's share of pretax, pretransfer (market) income spiked upward in 1986-88, 1997-2000 and 2003-2007.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Markets, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- United States
330. A Global Trust for Rule of Law
- Author:
- Mark P. Lagon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The rule of law is critical for people to have a meaningful opportunity to thrive. Still, for billions of people around the world today, the rule of law exists on paper but not in practice. Even though a theme for the United Nations General Assembly High-Level Panel in fall 2012 is rule of law, various UN programs devoted to rule of law have not had a transformative impact. Traditional intergovernmental institutions will never offer enough to achieve systemic change. To supplement them and achieve what they alone cannot, the United States should take the lead to forge a more nimble partnership with public, private, and nonprofit sectors and establish a Global Trust for Rule of Law (“Global Trust”). Similar to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (“Global Fund”), a diverse board of donor states, philanthropists, rule of law experts, and civil society representatives would run this Global Trust. Its purpose would be to build developing nations' capacity to implement rule of law and unleash the potential of marginalized groups worldwide, promoting not only human dignity but, crucially, global economic growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, International Law, Non-Governmental Organization, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States
331. ASEAN's Future and Asian Integration
- Author:
- Joshua Kurlantzick
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In a region largely bereft of regional organizations and long divided by the Cold War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been the most significant multilateral group for the past forty-five years. Since the end of the Cold War, ASEAN has grown increasingly influential. While much of the West and most emerging markets continue to suffer because of the 2008 global recession, the leading ASEAN economies have recovered and are thriving. Perhaps most important, ASEAN has helped prevent interstate conflicts in Southeast Asia, despite several brewing territorial disputes in the region.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
332. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership
- Author:
- Tural Ahmadov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Asia
333. How Can Trade Policy Help America Compete?
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- America deserves credit for not having succumbed to the global financial crisis by repeating the protectionist mistakes of the 1930s. Nonetheless, since 2007, although lip service has been paid to boosting US exports, its trade policy accomplishments have been modest. This is unfortunate because active trade policies can promote American living standards and facilitate America's return to full employment and sustained growth. These policies can also help to create a global trade order that advances American interests. This policy brief argues that the United States needs new initiatives that discipline foreign practices, increase access to foreign markets, revitalize the World Trade Organization (WTO), improve the administrative and regulatory environment for trade, and assist workers and communities adversely affected by change.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
334. Combating Widespread Currency Manipulation
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Widespread currency manipulation, mainly in developing and newly industrialized economies, is the most important development of the past decade in international financial markets. In an attempt to hold down the values of their currencies, governments are distorting capital flows by around $1.5 trillion per year. The result is a net drain on aggregate demand in the United States and the euro area by an amount roughly equal to the large output gaps in the United States and the euro area. In other words, millions more Americans and Europeans would be employed if other countries did not manipulate their currencies and instead achieved sustainable growth through higher domestic demand.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
335. Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup of official assets—mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets—keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year as a result. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs due to this foreign currency manipulation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States
336. Restoring Fiscal Equilibrium in the United States
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Halfway through this presidential election year, there is great uncertainty about how, when, and even whether the United States will restore fiscal sustainability. As shown by the near-default because of the impasse over the debt ceiling in July 2011, the two parties have been in sharp opposition on this issue. The Republicans have insisted that adjustment be accomplished by spending cuts rather than tax increases. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican congressmen and 41 Republican senators have signed the Grover Norquist pledge to oppose any attempt to raise marginal tax rates or reduce deductions without implementing offsetting tax reductions. In contrast, Democratic lawmakers have tended to emphasize the maintenance of social and entitlement programs and expressed a willingness to restore higher tax rates if necessary.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
337. Right Idea, Wrong Direction: Obama's Corporate Tax Reform Proposals
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The need for US corporate tax reform is blindingly obvious. Conservatives contend that the top corporate tax rate— whether measured in statutory or effective terms—is the second highest in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Liberals argue that the US corporate tax system is riddled with complex “loopholes,” enabling many firms—whether incorporated or not—to pay less than their fair share.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
338. US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In his 2012 State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that "over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires." The tire tariff case, decided by the president in September 2009, exemplifies his efforts to get China to "play by the rules" and serves as a plank in his larger platform of insourcing jobs to America.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and America
339. Projecting China's Current Account Surplus
- Author:
- William R. Cline
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
340. Transactions: A New Look at Services Sector Foreign Direct Investment in Asia
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In this paper Kirkegaard presents new micro-level data consisting of individual greenfield investment projects and mergers and acquisitions as a source for detailed analysis of services sector cross-border investment flows among the Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional membership in Asia. The new transactional foreign direct investment (FDI) data are methodologically distinct from traditional BPM5-compliant FDI data but found to yield generally comparable aggregates, when compared with the latest available International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from the Comprehensive Direct Investment Survey for the ADB regional membership. The services sectors are found to receive considerably larger amounts of foreign investment, when compared with the Asian region's manufacturing and raw materials sectors. OECD countries account for roughly three-quarters of total recorded inward services sector FDI of about $2 trillion, relatively evenly split between the United States, the EU-27, and regional OECD-level-income countries. The presence of sizable regional "upward flowing" services sector investments into OECD-level-income economies is verified. Kirkegaard draws preliminary policy conclusions based on the new transactional FDI data results concerning prospects for regional services sector liberalization, threshold income levels for inward services sector FDI, upward-flowing regional services FDI, and preferred modes of services sector investments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, and Asia
341. The Dollar and Its Discontents
- Author:
- Olivier Jeanne
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Has the US dollar delivered the benefit that the rest of the world is expecting from its holdings of international liquidity? US government debt has been liquid and safe, and it is supplied in sufficient quantity. But it has given a low return to the countries that accumulated the most reserves, especially when those returns are measured in terms of the countries' own consumption. Jeanne argues that countries that accumulate the most reserves should expect a low return in terms of their own consumption and that international monetary reform can do little to change that fact.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
342. A China – US bilateral investment treaty: A template for a multilateral framework for investment?
- Author:
- Karl P. Sauvant and Huiping Chen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- China is the largest foreign direct investment (FDI) host and home country among emerging markets, the United States among developed countries. As host countries, both seek to maintain policy space to pursue their own legitimate public policy objectives; as home countries, both seek to protect their investors' outward FDI. The development of their bilateral investment treaties (BITs) over the past decade reflects this: Chinese BITs have become more protective of investors, US ones more respectful of host country interests. If agreement is reached between both, it would provide a template for future investment agreements.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Treaties and Agreements, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
343. The Money Laundry: Regulating Criminal Finance in the Global Economy
- Author:
- Ethan Wagner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The Money Laundry: Regulating Criminal Finance in the Global EconomyJ.C. Sharman(Ithaca: Cornell University Press), 224 pages.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
344. Lessons Learned from AIDS 2012
- Author:
- Suzanne Brundage and J. Stephen Morrison
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- From July 22 to July 27, 2012, Washington, D.C., was host to the International AIDS Conference, the biannual Super Bowl of global health and the preeminent forum for reviewing the science, policy, programs, and politics in the fight against HIV/AIDS.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Health Care Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
345. US electorate in figures
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The US presidential election in November promises to be closely fought - and exceptionally raucous. Unprecedented amounts of money will be spent during the campaign, much of it on 'attack ads'. Here are five statistics to help sort out the issues from the noise.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, America, and Washington
346. The Sorry State of U.S. Economic Statecraft
- Author:
- Andrew K. Davenport
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of International Security Affairs
- Institution:
- Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
- Abstract:
- Currently, America isn't seriously using economic warfare against our enemies. Here's how we can.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
347. Boatloads of Growth: Recapturing America's Share of Asia-Pacific Trade
- Author:
- Ed Gerwin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- By 2020, the Asia-Pacific's $10 trillion import market will present vast opportunities to support U.S. economic growth and wider prosperity for America's Middle Class. But, over the past decade, the U.S. share of key Asia-Pacific markets has actually plummeted–by over 40%. Retaking America's share of these rapidly expanding economies—beginning with trade deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)—could pay huge dividends: over a half trillion dollars in additional U.S. exports, supporting millions of good American jobs.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Asia
348. The Economy Is Slowing, But Perhaps Not For Long
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Slow, slower, and may be even stop. That's a quick summary of how Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke sees the US economy. The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% last year, 1.9% in the first quarter of this year, "and available indicators point to a still-smaller gain in the second quarter" he advised congress last week. Household spending is slowing down because "confidence remains relatively low" (at its lowest level since December); numerous factors (a supply overhang, unavailability of credit) "impede growth" in the housing sector; manufacturing production has slowed; business investment has "decelerated"; there is "further weakness ahead" for investment demand; and "reduction in the unemployment rate seems likely to be frustratingly slow."
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
349. Fear Athens Less and Washington More
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- There comes a tide in the affairs of men And the one sweeping from Greece, across Europe and into the United States is washing away support for austerity, in some cases reinforcing opposition to it, largely from the Left. President Obama is delighted at this support for his refusal to cut spending in the face of mounting deficits, and the Republicans are feeling beleaguered at what they see as the disinterment of the body of works of John Maynard Keynes. No longer must the President sit at G8 meetings (in this weekend's case, G7 since Vladimir Putin finds it necessary to stay at home to deal with an unpleasant spate of dissent) and hear only the voice of Germany's iron Chancellor, Angela Merkel, extolling the virtues of thrift, austerity and balanced budgets. Now he has France's new socialist President, François Hollande, to preach the virtues of spending, "the indispensable stimulation of the economy", and, even better, high taxes-- up to 75% on incomes in excess of $1.35 million per year, which makes the team of Buffett and Obama mere pikers at the soak-the-rich game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed the administration's delight at Hollande's "different political approach Different voices may be louder on growth than they have been It's been our view that there needed to be adjustments to austerity, so that there could be growth, both for economic reasons and for political reasons President Obama and our economic team have been saying for some time that growth had to factor into a European recovery." Take that, Mrs. Merkel and all you Republicans who want to cut entitlement spending and retain the Bush tax cuts that benefit "millionaires and billionaires", Obama shorthand for families earning more than $250,000 per year.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Budget
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, Greece, and France
350. How Safe Is the U.S. Safe Haven?
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- This version of the glorious sonnet composed by Emma Lazarus in 1883, and later engraved on a bronze plaque installed on the Statue of Liberty, calling the world's huddled masses to our shores, captures what it means these days to be a safe haven. Just as America proved to be such a safe haven for immigrants in the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, it is now seen as a safe haven for wealth attempting to escape Europe's tax collectors and financial chaos and recession in Europe, and for foreign central banks newly enamored of the dollar.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Immigration, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Germany
351. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
352. Inheriting Recessions
- Author:
- Tim Kane
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Three of the last six U.S. presidents have inherited a recessionary economy: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Let's define "inheriting a recession" as meaning that on the date a president is sworn into office, the economy is technically still in recession or enters one within a few months. Most economists would agree that presidents have little short-term control over the economy, but that their fiscal policies can be implemented quickly and affect macroeconomic performance after the first year. Reagan, inaugurated in January 1981, actually endured a double-dip recession-one that had been raging since early 1980 and a second that hit in July 1981-but the economy experienced a strong and sustained recovery that began in November 1982 during his second year in the White House. Bush was inaugurated in January 2001, and the economy entered recession just weeks later. Obama entered office in January 2009, like Reagan, after the United States had been in recession for a full year.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
353. Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership
- Author:
- Sean R. Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In looking at twenty years of independence in the former Soviet region of Central Asia, Kazakhstan stands out in most respects as a stable oasis in a desert of uncertainty. It is the wealthiest country in Central Asia. It has not suffered any serious conflict since gaining independence, and the development of its economy, financial sector, and private sector has been steadily moving forward as has its engagement with the global economy. It is little wonder, therefore, that the most stable and fruitful bilateral partnership for the United States in the region over the past twenty years has been with the Republic of Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan relations have never experienced a significant crisis, and there has been ongoing cooperation between the two countries in a variety of areas, including nuclear non-proliferation, economic development, and energy extraction.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan
354. The United States and the Global Future
- Author:
- Banning Garrett, James B. Steinberg, David Ignatius, and Uri Dadush
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- How will the US economy evolve over the next twenty years and what might be the impact of various US economic scenarios on the global system? Will the United States have a Japan-like decade or two of anemic growth? If so, would this lead the United States to reduce its foreign involvement and commitments, become more protectionist, and focus on its internal problems? Or will the United States solve its fiscal and debt problems, reinvigorate growth and innovation, and return to sustainable economic growth? Would this underpin a renewed commitment to active US global leadership in mobilizing international cooperation to manage security, economic growth, and global challenges?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
355. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The National Intelligence Council in its new report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, argues that the historic moment the Obama Administration now confronts “recalls past transition points–such as 1815, 1919, 1945, and 1989–when the path forward was not clear-cut and the world faced the possibility of different global futures.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, Politics, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Atlantic Ocean
356. A Northern Tiger? Canada's Economic and Fiscal Renaissance and its Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Jeremy A. Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- As the United States struggles to find a politically acceptable and economically sensible solution to its severe fiscal crisis, hidden in plain sight just North of the 49th parallel is an example that ought to be considered more carefully. Quietly, but steadily, under governments of all political stripes, Canada has profoundly re-structured its economy, gotten its fiscal house in order, created a competitive business tax environment, and come into its own as a strong economic player in North America and beyond.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Canada
357. The Freedom Savings Credit: A Practical Step to Build Americans' Household Balance Sheets
- Author:
- Lisa Mensah, Raymond O'Mara III, Colby Farber, and Robert Weinberger
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The imbalance of too much debt and not enough assets fuels financial insecurity in many American households. Building Americans' household balance sheets should start with making savings and asset-building incentives more efficient and equitable. Although millions of working Americans currently receive little or no tax incentive to save, modest reforms to our tax code have the potential to dramatically improve their financial futures. The Aspen Institute Initiative on Financial Security (Aspen IFS) proposes the Freedom Savings Credit to create a more equitable and economically efficient savings system that will benefit millions of American households and the nation as a whole.
- Topic:
- Security, Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
358. Economic patriotism: Dealing with Chinese direct investment in the United States
- Author:
- Sophie Meunier
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- China is investing throughout the world, in industries from automobiles to zinc. In the US, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) accounted for only 0.25% of total FDI stock in 2010,but it is likely to increase as China diversifies its holdings and seeks to obtain technology, managerial know-how and easier access to US consumers. As these investments multiply, we expect a few cases to attract negative attention in the media and political arena. Chinese companies are predominately state-controlled, raising the specter that they act to fulfill strategic, rather than profit maximizing, goals. China is also an ideological rival, causing irrational concern that Chinese investment in the US may act as a Trojan Horse of Chinese values and politics --fueled by rational concerns about subsidies, piracy, and economic espionage.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
359. US Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Grow - But Face Competition
- Author:
- Michael McConnell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- ASEAN countries have long been an important international market for US agricultural exports. The United States, in 2011, exported almost $9.6 billion of agricultural products to ASEAN, making it the sixth-largest export destination for US farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses—behind Japan ($14 billion) and just behind the European Union ($9.6 billion), but well ahead of South Korea ($7 billion). Moreover, the value of agricultural trade between the United States and ASEAN almost doubled between 2007 and 2011, with the top four ASEAN markets in 2011 for the United States being Indonesia ($2.8 billion), the Philippines ($2.1 billion), Vietnam ($1.7 billion), and Thailand ($1.3 billion). With a population of 614 million and strong economic growth, it is expected that ASEAN will continue to be an important market for US agricultural products. However, the United States is likely to face increasing competition, particularly from China, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, East Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand
360. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Asia
361. Taiwan: Crisis Deferred, But Maybe Not For Long
- Author:
- Denny Roy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Taiwan's elections on January 14, which for the first time combined polls for the presidency and the legislature, displayed further positive evolution in Taiwan's now well-established democracy. The results also precluded an immediate disruption in relations between Taiwan and the PRC, which is good news in Washington. In Beijing's view, however, the goal is not stability across the Taiwan Strait, but unification. Chinese impatience might weigh more heavily on President Ma Ying-jeou, and by extension on the United States, during Ma's second term.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia
362. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?
- Author:
- Dieter Ernst
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
363. The Negative Effects of Minimum Wage Laws
- Author:
- Mark Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The federal government has imposed a minimum wage since 1938, and nearly all the states impose their own minimum wages. These laws prevent employers from paying wages below a mandated level. While the aim is to help workers, decades of economic research show that minimum wages usually end up harming workers and the broader economy. Minimum wages particularly stifle job opportunities for low-skill workers, youth, and minorities, which are the groups that policymakers are often trying to help with these policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
364. The Great Streetcar Conspiracy
- Author:
- Randal O'Toole
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Streetcars are the latest urban planning fad, stimulated partly by the Obama administration's preference for funding transportation projects that promote "livability" (meaning living without automobiles) rather than mobility or cost-effective transportation. Toward that end, the administration wants to eliminate cost-effectiveness requirements for federal transportation grants, instead allowing non-cost-effective grants for projects promoting so-called livability. In anticipation of this change, numerous cities are preparing to apply for federal funds to build streetcar lines.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Government, Political Economy, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States
365. Competition in Currency: The Potential for Private Money
- Author:
- Thomas L. Hogan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Privately issued money can benefit consumers in many ways, particularly in the areas of value stability and product variety. Decentralized currency production can benefit consumers by reducing inflation and increasing economic stability. Unlike a central bank, competing private banks must attract customers by providing innovative products, restricting the quantity of notes issued, and limiting the riskiness of their investing activities. Although the Federal Reserve currently has a de facto monopoly on the provision of currency in the United States, this was not always the case. Throughout most of U.S. history, private banks issued their own banknotes as currency. This practice continues today in a few countries and could be reinstituted in the United States with minimal changes to the banking system.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
366. Questioning Homeownership as a Public Policy Goal
- Author:
- Morris A. Davis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- For decades U.S. housing policy has focused on promoting homeownership. In this study, I show that the set of policies designed to further homeownership has been ineffective and expensive and that homeownership as a public policy goal is not well supported.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Markets, and Urbanization
- Political Geography:
- United States
367. Ending Congestion by Refinancing Highways
- Author:
- Randal O'Toole
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Although gasoline taxes have long been the main source of funding for building, maintaining, and operating America's network of highways, roads, and streets, the tax is at best an imperfect user fee. As such, Congress and the states should take action to transition from gas taxes to more efficient vehicle-mile fees.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Communications, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United States
368. The American Welfare State: How We Spend Nearly $1 Trillion a Year Fighting Poverty—And Fail
- Author:
- Michael Tanner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- News that the poverty rate has risen to 15.1 percent of Americans, the highest level in nearly a decade, has set off a predictable round of calls for increased government spending on social welfare programs. Yet this year the federal government will spend more than $668 billion on at least 126 different programs to fight poverty. And that does not even begin to count welfare spending by state and local governments, which adds $284 billion to that figure. In total, the United States spends nearly $1 trillion every year to fight poverty. That amounts to $20,610 for every poor person in America, or $61,830 per poor family of three.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
369. What Made the Financial Crisis Systemic?
- Author:
- Patric H. Hendershott and Kevin Villani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The current narrative regarding the 2008 systemic financial system collapse is that numerous seemingly unrelated events occurred in unregulated or underregulated markets, requiring widespread bailouts of actors across the financial spectrum, from mortgage borrowers to investors in money market funds. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, created by the U.S. Congress to investigate the causes of the crisis, promotes this politically convenient narrative, and the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act operationalizes it by completing the progressive extension of federal protection and regulation of banking and finance that began in the 1930s so that it now covers virtually all financial activities, including hedge funds and proprietary trading. The Dodd-Frank Act further charges the newly created Financial Stability Oversight Council, made up of politicians, bureaucrats, and university professors, with preventing a subsequent systemic crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
370. EIU: Global outlook summary
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- The global economy remains in precarious shape. Europe's debt crisis rages on, and although the euro appears to have survived its most recent test in the form of the Greek election on June 17th, austerity and financial-market uncertainty are depressing economic activity in Europe and, by extension, in much of the rest of the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to expect global GDP growth to slow in 2012, and while our forecasts for the G3 economies—the US, euro zone and China—are essentially unchanged this month, we have cut our projections for Brazil and India.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil
371. Entrepreneurship in Postconflict Zones
- Author:
- Gayle Tzemach Lemmon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Economic development is a critical component of promoting stability and U.S. security interests, particularly in conflict and postconflict zones. Reviving institutions and rebuilding an economic base are among the first priorities after fighting ends and reconstruction begins. According to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), negative economic shocks of just 5 percent can increase the risk of a civil war by as much as 50 percent in fragile environments. Additionally, donor assistance, which can account for 20 percent to as much as 97 percent of a country's GDP, is unsustainable in the long term. Building local business capacity and supporting homegrown entrepreneurs can help curb this risk. Research from Iraq has found that labor-generating reconstruction programs can reduce violence during insurgencies, with a 10 percent increase in labor-related spending associated with a 10 percent decrease in violence. And as Shari Berenbach, director of the Office of Microenterprise Development at USAID, argues, the development of “private enterprise is an important stabilizing force,” particularly for countries suffering from the political uncertainty and civil unrest that often characterizes the postconflict period.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States
372. When Duty Calls: A Pragmatic Standard of Humanitarian Intervention
- Author:
- Robert A. Pape
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- On March 18, 2011, President Barack Obama announced the U.S. government's commitment to an international military intervention in Libya, declaring, "We're protecting innocent civilians within Libya" from Muammar Qaddafi's forces to prevent "a humanitarian crisis." Within days, an international coalition of Western and Arab states launched air strikes that halted the Libyan government forces' offensive against the rebel stronghold of Benghazi and the roughly 2 million people living in the eastern region of the country. Within weeks, major international economic resources began ºowing to rebel-controlled areas to help strengthen their ability to remain independent from Qaddafi's control. Within months, Qaddafi's grip on the western portions of the country crumbled. Now, many policymakers and scholars recognize the Libyan mission as a significant success for international humanitarian intervention according to the main yardstick of saving many lives with no loss of life among the interveners.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Libya
373. The FY2013 Defense Budget, the Threat of Defense Cuts and Sequestration and the Strategy-Reality Gap
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert M. Shelala II
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of "independence," including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP -- in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, Government, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq
374. Interim Report-Planning for a Deep Defense Drawdown—Part I
- Author:
- Clark A. Murdock
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- As the defense budget is reduced in the coming years, the Department of Defense (DoD) will be confronted with not one but two budgetary threats: it will face not only fewer defense dollars but also a weakening defense dollar in terms of purchasing power. This weaker defense dollar, driven by the internal cost inflation of personnel, operations and maintenance (O), and acquisition accounts in particular, threatens to hollow out the defense budget from within. -
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
375. U.S. Department of Defense Services Contract Spending and the Supporting Industrial Base, 2000-2011
- Author:
- David J. Berteau, Guy Ben-Ari, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman, and David Morrow
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Spending by the Department of Defense (DoD) on services contracts, which range from clerical and administrative work to vehicle maintenance to research and development (R), has been largely neglected by past studies of DoD spending trends. Yet DoD spending on services contract actions amounted to just under $200 billion in 2011, more than 50 percent of total DoD contract spending and nearly a third of the entire DoD budget. Both the executive branch and Congress have implemented policies to improve acquisitions of services, but the impacts of their efforts remain uncertain without a clear, concise analysis of past spending. And the then Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, Dr. Ashton Carter, has stated that: “Most of our services acquires, unlike weapons-system acquires, are amateurs… I intend to help them get better at it” (Speech at the Heritage Foundation, April 20, 2011).
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, Government, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
376. From Strength to Empowerment: The Next Generation of U.S.-Malaysia Relations
- Author:
- Murray Hiebert, Ernest Z. Bower, Elina Noor, Mahani Zainal Abidin, Gregory Poling, and Tham Siew Yean
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Relations between the United States and Malaysia are at an all-time high. Since President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Najib Razak entered office in 2009, both countries' governments have committed to a new beginning and moved to establish closer ties through increased political, economic, and people-to-people cooperation.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Malaysia
377. The US Cost of the Afghan War: FY2002-FY2013: Cost in Military Operating Expenditures and Aid, and Prospects for "Transition."
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is surprisingly difficult to get a meaningful estimate of the total cost of the Afghan conflict, total spending on Afghan forces and total spending on various forms of aid. More data are available on US efforts – which have dominated military and aid spending, but even these data present serious problems in reliability, consistency, and definition. Moreover, it is only since FY2012 that the US provided an integrated request for funding for the war as part of its annual budget request. The data for the period before FY2009 are accurate pictures of the Department of Defense request, but there is only a CRS estimate of total spending the previous years.
- Topic:
- Economics and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
378. Turkey and Saudi Arabia: Newly Discovered Partners?
- Author:
- Muhittin Ataman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- When we consider Saudi Arabian large population, territories and natural resources, it is obvious that it will continue to preserve its geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-cultural importance in future. The assumption of King Abdullah as the ruler of the country provided an opportunity to restructure the country's foreign policy. The new king began to follow a more pragmatic, rational, interdependent, multilateral and multidimensional foreign policy. He pursues an active foreign policy required to be less dependent on a single state (the United States) and on a single product (oil).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Political Economy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
379. Libertarian Roots of the Tea Party
- Author:
- David Kirby and Emily McClintock Ekins
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Many people on the left still dismiss the tea party as the same old religious right, but the evidence says they are wrong. The tea party has strong libertarian roots and is a functionally libertarian influence on the Republican Party.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Politics, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
380. Regulation, Market Structure, and Role of the Credit Rating Agencies
- Author:
- Mark A. Calabria and Emily McClintock Ekins
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- During the financial crisis of 2008, the financial markets would have been better served if the credit rating agency industry had been more competitive. We present evidence that suggests the Securities and Exchange Commission's designation of Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs) inadvertently created a de facto oligopoly, which primarily propped up three firms: Moody's, S, and Fitch. We also explain the rationale behind the NRSRO designation given to credit rating agencies (CRAs) and demonstrate that it was not intended to be an oligopolistic mechanism or to reduce investor due diligence, but rather was intended to protect consumers. Although CRAs were indirectly constrained by their reputation among investors, the lack of competition allowed for greater market complacency. Government regulatory use of credit ratings inflated the market demand for NRSRO ratings, despite the decreasing informational value of credit ratings. It is unlikely that this sort of regulatory framework could result in anything except misaligned incentives among economic actors and distorted market information that provides inaccurate signals to investors and other financial actors. Given the importance of our capital infrastructure and the power of credit rating agencies in our financial markets, and despite the good intentions of the uses of the NRSRO designation, it is not worth the cost and should be abolished. Regulators should work to eliminate regulatory reliance on credit ratings for financial safety and soundness. These regulatory reforms will, in turn, reduce CRA oligopolistic power and the artificial demand for their ratings.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
381. Corporate Welfare in the Federal Budget
- Author:
- Tad DeHaven
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Rising federal spending and huge deficits are pushing the nation toward a financial and economic crisis. Policymakers should find and eliminate wasteful, damaging, and unneeded programs in the federal budget. One good way to save money would be to cut subsidies to businesses. Corporate welfare in the federal budget costs taxpayers almost $100 billion a year.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
382. Prospects for Global Growth in 2012
- Author:
- Onur Bayramoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The current concern among many is that what we are faced today is not a usual crisis that is part of the economic cycle, but an era of great stagnation with low growth and high unemployment, not witnessed since the Great Depression of the 1930's. One wonders which country will drive global growth while major actors such as the European Union are now financial casinos, the United States is continuously losing its dynamism, Japan is struggling under demographical problems, and the emerging markets are still too small and volatile. Once again, policy makers acknowledge that the problems of growth are global and systematic; such that if one faces an issue, all of them get contaminated. However, they still seek for solutions in mercantilist national policies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
383. By Invitation, Mostly: the International Politics of the US Security Presence, China, and the South China Sea
- Author:
- Christopher Freise
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Much attention has been devoted to the Obama Administration's “Pacific Pivot” and the vocal reassertion of an upgraded security, economic, and diplomatic presence in East Asia by the United States. Commentators have ascribed various rationales to these efforts, including speculation that this is part of a “containment” strategy towards China, a reaction to the US presidential election cycle, or, more benignly, an effort to forestall concerns of American withdrawal from the region. These explanations have some elements of truth, but also fall short of fully describing or understanding the strategic rationale behind these moves.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
384. Global Oil Production is Surging: Implications for Prices, Geopolitics, and the Environment
- Author:
- Leonardo Maugeri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Oil Production Growth is Global. Global oil output capacity is likely to grow from 93 million barrels per day today to 110 million barrels per day by 2020—the largest increase in a single decade since the 1980s. The surge in oil production capacity will occur almost everywhere, with the largest increases in Iraq, the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Venezuela. United States Will Experience Unprecedented Output. Technological advances will increase the production of “unconventional” oil in the United States, which is in the midst of a shale boom. The Bakken/Three Forks formation in North Dakota alone has as much untapped shale/tight oil as a Persian Gulf country. Oil Prices May Collapse. If oil prices remain at or above $70 per barrel, investments will sustain the 20 percent increase in oil production capacity by 2020. However, world demand is sluggish due to the lagging economy and focus on energy efficiency. If these trends continue, we could see a significant dip—or even a temporary collapse—of oil prices. Shifting Market Has Geopolitical Consequences. While the Western Hemisphere could become oil self-sufficient by 2020, Iraq's oil output will also substantially increase as it stabilizes. China may escalate its competitive and political influence in the Persian Gulf and other oil-producing hotspots, including Canada, Venezuela, and possibly the United States. Oil Boom Must Trigger Environmental Action. Enforcement of environmental regulation and major investment in emission-reducing technologies must accompany the development of unconventional oil. Without this balance between industry and environmental interests, new oil production projects will be stymied or delayed.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Oil, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States
385. A Matter of Transparency: The Top One Percent in the Americas
- Author:
- Nora Lustig
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- It's time to measure the income share of Latin America's super-rich.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, Argentina, and Latin America
386. Political Representation, Policy Inclusion
- Author:
- Richard André, Ryan Berger, Nina Agrawal, and Wilda Escarfuller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- Do more Indigenous and Afro-descendant representatives in national congresses make a difference?
- Topic:
- Economics and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Peru
387. Extreme Weather, Extreme Prices: The costs of feeding a warming world
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Climate change is making extreme weather – like droughts, floods and heat waves – much more likely. As the 2012 drought in the US shows, extreme weather means extreme food prices. Our failure to slash greenhouse gas emissions presents a future of greater food price volatility, with severe consequences for the precarious lives and livelihoods of people in poverty.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, and Food
- Political Geography:
- United States
388. The Afghan War: Creating the Economic Conditions and Civil-Military Aid Efforts Needed For Transition
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Sean T. Mann, and Bryan Gold
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In a little over two years the US and its allies plan to hand over security and other responsibilities to the Afghan government as part of a process labeled “Transition.” Afghanistan is still at war and will probably be at war long after 2014. The political, governance, and economic dimensions of this Transition, however, will be as important as any developments in the fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
389. The FY2013 Defense Budget, Deficits, Cost-Escalation, and Sequestration
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert Shelala II
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US may not face peer threats in the near to mid term, but it faces a wide variety of lesser threats that make maintaining effective military forces, foreign aid, and other national security programs a vital national security interest. The US does need to reshape its national security planning and strategy to do a far better job of allocating resources to meet these threats. It needs to abandon theoretical and conceptual exercises in strategy that do not focus on detailed force plans, manpower plans, procurement plans, and budgets; and use its resources more wisely. The US still dominates world military spending, but it must recognize that maintaining the US economy is a vital national security interest in a world where the growth and development of other nations and regions means that the relative share the US has in the global economy will decline steadily over time, even under the best circumstances. At the same time, US dependence on the security and stability of the global economy will continue to grow indefinitely in the future. Talk of any form of “independence,” including freedom from energy imports, is a dangerous myth. The US cannot maintain and grow its economy without strong military forces and effective diplomatic and aid efforts. US military and national security spending already places a far lower burden on the US economy than during the peaceful periods of the Cold War, and existing spending plans will lower that burden in the future. National security spending is now averaging between 4% and 5% of the GDP – in spite of the fact the US has been fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – versus 6-7% during the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Asia
390. Economic Effects of Reductions in Defense Outlays
- Author:
- Benjamin Zycher
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- This study examines the prospective economic effects of a reduction below the current baseline in defense outlays of $100 billion per year over 10 years.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States
391. Unleashing Competition in EU Business Services
- Author:
- Henk L.M. Kox
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- In most EU member states, the business services industry has booked no productivity growth during the last two decades. The industry's performance in the other member states was weaker than that of its US counterparts. Exploring what may be causing this productivity stagnation, this policy brief reports that weak competition has contributed to the continuing malaise in European business services. The study analyzed the persistence (over time) of firm-level inefficiencies. The evidence further suggests that competition between small firms and large firms in business services is weak. Markets for business services work best in countries with flexible regulation on employment change and with low regulatory costs for firms that start up or close down a business. Countries that are more open to foreign competition perform better in terms of competitive selection and productivity.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
392. Multilateral Political Missions and Preventive Diplomacy
- Author:
- Richard Gowan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Multilateral political missions—teams of primarily civilian experts deployed by international and regional organizations with medium- to long-term mandates—play an overlooked role in preventing conflicts in fragile states. Their roles range from addressing long-term tensions to facilitating agreements to quelling escalating violence. More than six thousand personnel are deployed in political missions worldwide. The United Nations and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe oversee the majority of these missions. Although many political missions deal with active conflicts or post conflict situations, some have contributed to conflict prevention in countries ranging from Estonia to Guinea. In the right circumstances, multilateral missions can provide expertise and impartial assistance that national diplomats—whether ambassadors or special envoys—cannot. The activities of political missions include short-term preventive diplomacy, the promotion of the rule of law, and the provision of advice on socioeconomic issues. Some are also involved in monitoring human rights and the implementation of political agreements. Others have regional mandates allowing them to address multiple potential conflicts. A political mission's role differs depending on how far a potential conflict has evolved. In cases where latent tensions threaten long-term stability, a mission can focus on social and legal mechanisms to reduce the risk of escalation. Where a conflict is already escalating, a mission can become directly involved in mediating a peaceful resolution. Even where a conflict tips into full-scale war, a political mission may assist in mitigating violence or keeping political channels open. To strengthen political missions, the United States and its partners should work with the UN Secretariat to revise the rules governing the planning, funding, and start-up processes for political missions and overhaul U.N. personnel rules to make recruiting civilian experts easier. They should also encourage regional organizations to invest more in this type of conflict management tool.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Law, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States
393. Delivering on US Climate Finance Commitments
- Author:
- Trevor Houser and Jason Selfe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- At the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen in 2009 and Cancun in 2010, the United States joined other developed countries in pledging to mobilize $100 billion in public and private sector funding to help developing countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a warmer world. With a challenging US fiscal outlook and the failure of cap-and-trade legislation in the US Congress, America's ability to meet this pledge is increasingly in doubt. This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses the politics of a range of potential US sources of climate finance. It finds that raising new public funds for climate finance will be extremely challenging in the current fiscal environment and that many of the politically attractive alternatives are not realistically available absent a domestic cap-and-trade program or other regime for pricing carbon. Washington's best hope is to use limited public funds to leverage private sector investment through bilateral credit agencies and multilateral development banks.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, and United Nations
394. North Korea's State-Loyalty Advantage
- Author:
- B. R. Myers
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Although North Korea's northern border remains easy to cross, and North Koreans are now well aware of the prosperity enjoyed south of the demilitarized zone, Kim Jong Il continues to rule over a stable and supportive population. Kim enjoys mass support due to his perceived success in strengthening the race and humiliating its enemies. Thanks in part to decades of skillful propaganda, North Koreans generally equate the race with their state, so that ethno-nationalism and state-loyalty are mutually enforcing. In this respect North Korea enjoys an important advantage over its rival, for in the Republic of Korea ethno-nationalism militates against support for a state that is perceived as having betrayed the race. South Koreans' “good race, bad state” attitude is reflected in widespread sympathy for the people of the North and in ambivalent feelings toward the United States and Japan, which are regarded as friends of the republic but enemies of the race. But North Korea cannot survive forever on the public perception of state legitimacy alone. The more it loses its economic distinctiveness vis-à-vis the rival state, the more the Kim regime must compensate with triumphs on the military and nuclear fronts. Another act of aggression against the Republic of Korea may well take place in the months ahead, not only to divert North Korean public attention from the failures of the consumer-oriented “Strong and Prosperous Country” campaign, but also to strengthen the appeasement-minded South Korean opposition in the run-up to the presidential election in 2012.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and North Korea
395. Needing to Be Noticed: Understanding the Market in an Attention Economy
- Author:
- Anthony Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- For this paper, I have decided to step through the proscenium and appeal directly across the “fourth wall” to whatever readers this piece may attract, in the hopes that someone among you will be able to help me figure out the answers to a set of questions with which I have been wrestling for several years. For fun, let's call this paper an exercise in crowd-sourcing.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States
396. A Generalized Fact and Model of Long-Run Economic Growth: Kaldor Fact as a Special Case
- Author:
- Daniel Danxia Xie
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between economic growth and labor's share in national income, based on a comprehensive panel data set for 123 countries from 1950 to 2004. Xie's primary finding is that labor's share follows a cubic relationship with real GDP per capita over the long process of development. At the beginning of the modern economic growth process, the share of labor in national income first decreases until an initial threshold is reached. After that, labor's share keeps increasing until the country's GDP per capita reaches a second threshold before falling again. Xie argues that these dynamics apply not only to the less developed countries in the postwar years, but also to the advanced countries like the United States and the United Kingdom during their early economic take-offs, starting in the late 18th and 19th century, respectively. Finally, he proposes a two-sector constant elasticity of substitution (CES)-type growth model and simulate the model to replicate and explain the possible mechanism behind such a nonlinear pattern of movements in labor's share.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Kingdom
397. Too Big to Fail: The Transatlantic Debate
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein and Nicolas Véron
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Although the United States and the European Union were both seriously impacted by the financial crisis of 2007, resulting policy debates and regulatory responses have differed considerably on the two sides of the Atlantic. In this paper the authors examine the debates on the problem posed by "too big to fail" financial institutions. They identify variations in historical experiences, financial system structures, and political institutions that help one understand the differences of approaches between the United States, EU member states, and the EU institutions in addressing this problem. The authors then turn to possible remedies and how they may be differentially implemented in America and Europe. They conclude on which policy developments are likely in the near future.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
398. Brazil and the United States: The Need for Strategic Engagement
- Author:
- Luigi R. Einaudi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Washington's identification of Brazil with Latin America and the Third World hampers its appreciation of Brazil's power and importance to the United States. It is true that Brazil is geographically part of Latin America, and it is also true that Brazil, a founder of the Group of 77, was, with India, among the original leaders of the “Third World.” But Brazil is Brazil—as large and every bit as unique as the United States or China. Brazil, for many years the seat of the Portuguese empire, is the world's largest Portuguese-speaking country. It never had the large settled Amerindian populations that became a repressed underclass in the Andes and Mesoamerica; Brazilians today are as diverse as their North American cousins but growing faster.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Brazil, and Latin America
399. A construção da sociedade do trabalho no Brasil: uma investigação sobre a persistência secular das desigualdades
- Author:
- Paulo Sotero
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Americas Quarterly
- Institution:
- Council of the Americas
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Brazil
400. The Post-Washington Consensus: Development after the Crisis
- Author:
- Francis Fukuyama and Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- A clear shift in the development agenda is underway. Traditionally, an agenda generated in the developed world was implemented in—and, indeed, often imposed on—the developing world. The United States, Europe, and Japan will continue to be significant sources of economic resources and ideas, but the emerging markets will become significant players. Countries such as Brazil, China, India, and South Africa will be both donors and recipients of resources for development and of best practices for how to use them. In fact, development has never been something that the rich bestowed on the poor but rather something the poor achieved for themselves. It appears that the Western powers are finally waking up to this truth in light of a financial crisis that, for them, is by no means over.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, India, South Africa, and Brazil