Political Geography: United States / Topic: Economics

101. Economic Statecraft: American Economic Power and the New Face of Financial Warfare

Author:: Elizabeth Rosenberg and Zachary K. Goldman
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States has long relied on its economic power to protect and advance its interests abroad. In an increasingly integrated international financial system, the U.S. economy and capital markets remain the largest in the world by almost every measure. This status affords the United States an important global leadership position and the ability to shape foreign policy outcomes with economic tools. The structure of the international trade and financial system, in which many significant banking and energy transactions as well as currency reserves are denominated in U.S. dollars, reinforces the central role of the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States

102. Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization: A Primer

Author:: Phillip Carter and Katherine Kidder
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Military, Veterans, and Society Program Director Phillip Carter and Research Associate Katherine Kidder examine the growth of military compensation in the post-Cold War era, from 1990 to 2015, as well as the social contract America has with its All-Volunteer Force, and the ways in which monetary compensation should be considered as part of a broader talent management strategy for the armed forces. The policy brief presents an opportunity for the nation to assess its social contract with the All-Volunteer Force and adjust (if necessary) to meet the national interest and sustain its most critical national security asset.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Labor Issues, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: United States

103. IN3 - Incubating a New Spain through the Promotion of Entrepreneurship

Author:: James Costos
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: Helping entrepreneurs grow their businesses and achieve their full potential is in the interest of anyone who wants to foster prosperity worldwide— that’s why it’s an Obama administration priority. Growth anywhere does some good everywhere, and the fact is that entrepreneurs create jobs and drive economic growth both at home and abroad. In the United States, 40 percent of our $17 trillion economy is generated by companies that did not even exist 20 years ago. Two-thirds of our 65 months of consecutive job growth is driven by small businesses. The owners of those businesses—28 million and growing—employ over half of America’s workforce.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, Social Stratification, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States and Spain

104. Brazil and the United States: Renewed Momentum in a Natural Partnership

Author:: Liliana Ayalde
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: It is impossible to comprehend Brazil without understanding the dimensions of this continent-sized country, which occupies a land mass larger than that of the lower 48 of the United States. Brazil’s land border, which it shares with ten South American neighbors, is five times larger than the border between the United States and Mexico. Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world in terms of population. (For context, Indonesia is fourth.) It has abundant natural resources of every kind, including the world’s largest reserves of fresh water. It is home to two-thirds of the iconic Amazon, the globe’s largest tropical rainforest. It is the second largest economy in the Western Hemisphere and, depending on one’s calculus, the seventh or eighth largest economy in the world. The State of Sao Paulo alone has an economy larger than that of Argentina. Brazil has more cities with a population of over one million people than the United States. It is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural goods after the United States. It derives 75 percent of its energy needs from hydro-electric sources—some of the cleanest energy platforms among large nations—and its current production of oil and gas make it among the top ten energy producers in the world. Brazil could become an even larger global producer with the development of its pre-salt oil reserves. With Embraer, Brazil has the world’s third largest aviation company after Boeing and Airbus, and in Gerdau, the top producer of long steel in the Americas. And this is just an illustrative sampling. One needs to keep in mind these basic facts about Brazil to help put surface events, including today’s headlines, in perspective.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States and Brazil

105. Thomas Piketty's Capital and the Developing World

Author:: Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a tour de force—a compelling and accessible read that presents an eloquent and convincing warning about the future of capitalism.* Capitalism, Piketty argues, suffers from an inherent tendency to generate an explosive spiral of increasing inequality of wealth and income. This inegalitarian dynamic of capitalism is not due to textbook failures of capitalist markets (for example, natural monopolies) or failures of economic institutions (such as the failure to regulate these monopolies), but to the way capitalism fundamentally works. Unless the spiral is controlled by far more progressive taxation than is now the norm, the political fallout could undermine the viability of the successful “social state” (p. 471) in the advanced economies, putting the democratic state itself at risk.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, and France

106. Bracing for Cold Peace. US-Russia Relations after Ukraine

Author:: Ondrej Ditrych
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The crisis in Ukraine has turned the tables of the post-Cold War relationship between the United States and Russia. The ongoing transformation can result in a number of outcomes, which can be conceived in terms of scenarios of normalisation, escalation and 'cold peace' - the latter two scenarios being much more probable than the first. NATO ought to shore up its defences in Central and Eastern Europe while Washington and its allies engage in a comprehensive political strategy of 'new containment'. This means combining political and economic stabilisation of the transatlantic area with credible offers of benefits to partners in the East and pragmatic relations with Russia which are neither instrumentalised (as was the case with the 'reset') nor naïvely conceived as a 'partnership'.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, Cold War, and Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, and Ukraine

107. Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change

Author:: Edmund S. Phelps
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In his most recent tome, Edmund Phelps, the 2006 Nobel Laureate in Economic Science, addresses a topic crucial to successful national capitalist systems: the dynamics of the innovation process. Phelps develops his thesis around three main themes: In part one, he explains the development of the modern economies as they form the core of early—19th century societies in the West; in part two, he explores the lure of socialism and corporatism as competing systems to modern capitalism; and, in part three, he reviews post-1960s evidence of decline in dynamism in Western capitalist countries.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

108. Internationalization of the Renminbi: Developments, Problems and Influences

Author:: Ming Zhang
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Due to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the Chinese government began to promote renminbi (RMB) internationalization in order to raise its international status, decrease reliance on the US dollar (USD) and advance domestic structural reform. RMB internationalization has achieved progress not only in cross-border trade settlement, but also in the offshore RMB markets. However, the rampant cross-border arbitrage and the relatively slow development of RMB invoicing compared to RMB settlement are becoming increasingly problematic. RMB internationalization has exerted significant influence on not only the Chinese economy but also other emerging market economies. RMB internationalization complicates domestic monetary policy, exacerbates the currency mismatch on China's international balance sheet and increases both the scale and volatility of short-term capital flows. It offers emerging economies another alternative for pricing domestic currency and investing foreign exchange reserves. Its overall impact on the international monetary system's stability will depend on how the capital account is liberalized and the consistency and transparency of Chinese monetary policy. This paper concludes with five recommendations for Chinese policy makers to promote RMB internationalization in a sustainable way that is conducive to international stability.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: United States and China

109. Israel and the United States: Six Decades of US-Israeli Relations

Author:: Priya Singh
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: Robert O. Freedman\'s edited volume, Israel and the United States: Six Decades of U.S.-Israeli Relations, is a compilation of an interesting assortment of essays by Israeli and American scholars from various fields, contending with different aspects of a complicated and multilayered relationship that comprises not only diplomatic and economic links, but also religious, legal, military and strategic connections as well as common beliefs. The first section of the book articulates the political ties between the United States and Israel since 1948. It contends with U.S.-Israeli diplomatic relations, an enquiry of the progression of the pro-Israeli lobby in the United States, and an analysis of the evolution of U.S. public attitudes toward Israel. David Makovsky\'s essay, which deals with the U.S. and the Arab–Israeli conflict, emphasizes that the U.S.\'s relationship with Israel and the Arab world is not a zero-sum game and that the United States can maintain good ties with both sides. The essay reiterates that Israel has been an asset for the United States rather than a liability, which has been suggested by the likes of John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt. Robert Freedman, in contending with the policies of George Bush and Barack Obama towards the Arab-Israeli conflict, brings to the fore the similarities in their approaches as well as the significant differences, with the former pursuing an episodic approach while the latter has adopted a more continuous line. In his essay on the pro-Israeli lobby in the United States, Dov Waxman discusses the ruptures and fissures that have emerged within the lobby and concludes that there is no single organization that can persuasively claim to exemplify the vast majority of American Jews; as such, its clout/influence is expected to wane. Amnon Cavari\'s essay deconstructs the shifting trends in American support for Israel, contending that a decline in support among college-educated Americans along with an upsurge in support among evangelical Christians could weaken bipartisan backing for Israel.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Israel

110. Comparing Transnational IPR Policy: Closing the Gap in Canada's Patenting Regime

Author:: Samah Rahman and Shashanth Shetty
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Canada is lagging behind in research and development (R&D) commercialization, ranking fifteenth in the World Economic Forum’s 2015 Global Competitiveness Report. One of the most important contributing factors to the gap between R&D and competitiveness is that new entrepreneurs lack the monetary and informational resources to access intellectual property (IP) legal expertise. The authors of this brief argue that the Canadian government’s strategies have been ineffective, and its current policy initiatives have failed to consider the importance of disseminating IP legal knowledge directly to innovators. It is recommended that the government look to the models used by the United States and South Korea to mobilize IP legal knowledge within the entrepreneurial community. This can be achieved by establishing a national IP legal clinic at the university level — as well as increasing funding for existing programs and creating a virtual clinic — and including an IP rights application course in select university programs, targeting innovators who will require IP legal advice in the future.
Topic:: Economics and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, and South Korea

111. Quantity Theory of Money Redux? Will Inflation Be the Legacy of Quantitative Easing?

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Since the onset of the Federal Reserve's unconventional program of large scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing (QE), some economists and financial practitioners have feared that the consequent buildup of the Fed's balance sheet could lead to a large expansion of the money supply, and that such an increase could cause a sharp rise in inflation. So far fears about induced inflation have not been validated. This Policy Brief examines the basis for the original concerns about inflation in terms of the classic quantity theory of money, which holds that inflation occurs when the money supply expands more rapidly than warranted by increases in real production. The Brief first reviews the US experience and shows that whereas rapid money growth might have been a plausible explanation of inflation in the 1960s through the early 1980s, subsequent data have not supported such an explanation. It then shows that the quantity theory of money has not really been put to the test after the Great Recession, because a sharp increase in banks' excess reserves and corresponding sharp decline in the "money multiplier" has meant that the rise in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has not translated into increased money available to the public in the usual fashion. The most likely aftermath of quantitative easing remains one of benign price behavior. However, if nascent inflationary conditions materialize, the Federal Reserve will need to manage adroitly the large amounts of banks' excess reserves that have accumulated as a consequence of QE in order to limit inflationary pressures.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Federal Reserve
Political Geography:: United States

112. Reshoring by US Firms: What Do the Data Say?

Author:: Lindsay Oldenski
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Reshoring—when firms shift manufacturing production back to the United States—has been getting a great deal of publicity lately. Oldenski examines the most recent data on the global operations of US firms and concludes that although some companies have reversed their previous offshoring decisions, there is no evidence of a widespread reshoring trend. But this should not be considered a defeat for US competitiveness. US multinationals continue to move operations offshore, but they also continue to grow stronger, producing more in their US operations and adding more to total US exports. The structure of US manufacturing has changed, but the ability to adapt to the changing nature of global business has been and will continue to be crucial to the continued growth of US manufacturing.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

113. Chinese Investment and CFIUS: Time for an Updated (and Revised) Perspective

Author:: Theodore Moran
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For more than a decade, China has complained about what it maintains has been a pattern of erratic and politicized treatment of Chinese investors when they attempt to acquire US companies. The Chinese want the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to be more open and transparent in its rulings and to not discriminate against Chinese firms. The United States is not likely to accede to these demands in any formal or legal manner. Moran proposes practical steps to address the concerns of Chinese investors without diluting CFIUS procedures. He provides a national security threat assessment filter, which allows Chinese investors—like investors of all nationalities—to determine when their proposed acquisitions might pose a genuine threat and when any such threat is simply not plausible. He also suggests that first-time Chinese investors seek expert counsel to overcome the secrecy surrounding CFIUS objections to figure out how to proceed with problematic acquisitions.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States

114. Innovative Clusters & New Work: A Case Study of TaskRabbit

Author:: Emily Isaac
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: In the past five years, San Francisco has become home to dozens of new online and mobile “service networking” companies that claim to be “revolutionizing” the way work gets done. Making up what has come to be known as the “platform economy,” these technology companies provide the platforms for online and mobile marketplaces in which users can buy and sell their goods and services. Together, these “platform economy” companies make up a concentrated innovative cluster in the San Francisco Bay Area, and, more specifically, San Francisco proper. One of the sharing economy’s pioneers and largest success stories, TaskRabbit Inc. allows users to outsource small jobs and tasks to local contractors—or, in company lingo, neighborhood “Taskers.” Launched out of Boston in 2008, TaskRabbit is just one of many tech startups that have left Boston for the San Francisco Bay Area. Since relocating to San Francisco, the company has received $37.5 million in venture funding, is available in 20 cities, and reportedly has 1.25 million users and over 25,000 Taskers. Indeed, TaskRabbit exemplifies the immeasurable benefits of strategically locating a firm in an industry cluster.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Communications, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States

115. The Myth of Dynastic Wealth: The Rich Get Poorer

Author:: Robert Arnott, William Bernstein, and Lillian Wu
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century rocketed to the top of the best-seller lists the moment it was published in 2013, and remained there for months. While this feat is quite remarkable for a weighty tome on economics, it’s no mystery why Piketty’s magnum opus created such a sensation; it is clearly articulated, is accessible to the non-economist, and contains a trove of historical insights. We believe Piketty’s core message is provably flawed on several levels, as a result of fundamental and avoidable errorsin his basic assumptions. 1 He begins with the sensible presumption that the return on invested capital, r, exceeds macroeconomic growth, g, as must be true in any healthy economy. But from this near-tautology, he moves on to presume that wealthy families will grow ever richer over future generations, leading to a society dominated by unearned, hereditary wealth.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

116. Central Bank Stress Tests: Mad, Bad, and Dangerous

Author:: Kevin Dowd
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: One of the most important aspects of the remarkable transformation of central banking following the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis is the growth of regulatory stress tests for the larger banks. The relevant regulator—typically the central bank—uses these to determine the ability of the banks to withstand stress, and uses the results of the tests to assess the overall financial health of the banking system. A key purpose of the stress tests is to reassure the public that the banking system is sound.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

117. The Conservatarian Manifesto: Libertarians, Conservatives, and the Fight for the Right’s Future

Author:: Ilya Shapiro
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: It’s altogether fitting that a book throwing down the gauntlet for a libertarian-conservative fusion in the 2010s has emerged from an author linked to the same magazine as the progenitor of the original fusionism of a half-century earlier. I only recently met Charlie Cooke—though we’ve exchanged many tweets—and never had the chance to meet Frank Meyer—though I’m heavily involved with the Federalist Society, which his son Eugene has long led—butI have no doubt that the two would get on swimmingly. And it comes as no surprise that both cut their writing chops at National Review, which many assume is a stodgy journal of urtraditionalist redoubt when in fact it has produced some of the most innovative reformist ideas in the conservative movement. Or, should I say, that it has featured ideas from the full range of center-right thought, along with various manifestations of entertainingly untraditional personal style.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

118. An Assessment of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Jeffrey Schott, Eujiin Jung, and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Of all the free trade agreements (FTAs) concluded by Korea with its major trading partners since the turn of the century, the Korea-China FTA may be the largest in trade terms. It is, however, far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment policies. Korea and China agreed to liberalize a large share of bilateral trade within 20 years, but both sides incorporated extensive exceptions to basic tariff reforms and deferred important market access negotiations on services and investment for several years. Political interests trumped economic objectives, and the negotiated outcome cut too many corners to achieve such a comprehensive result. The limited outcome in the Korea-China talks has two clear implications for economic integration among the northeast Asian countries. First, prospects for the ongoing China-Japan-Korea talks will be limited and unlikely to exceed the Korea-China outcome. Second, Korea and Japan need to strengthen their bilateral leg of the northeast Asian trilateral and the best way is by negotiating a deal in the context of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

119. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2015

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The latest semiannual fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) estimates find that the US dollar is now overvalued by about 10 percent, comparable to levels in 2008 through early 2010 and again in 2011. Unlike then, the current strong dollar does not reflect a weak renminbi kept undervalued by major exchange rate intervention by China. Instead, China's current account surplus has fallen sharply relative to GDP, and its recent intervention has been to prevent excessive depreciation rather than to prevent appreciation. Additionally, declines in the real effective exchange rates (REERs) for major emerging-market economies and resource-based advanced economies, driven by falling commodity prices in recent months, have strengthened the dollar. Recent increases in the REERs for the euro area and Japan have removed their modest undervaluation identified in the last FEERs estimates in May, and the Chinese renminbi remains consistent with its FEER. The dollar's rise by nearly 15 percent in real effective terms over the past two years could impose a drag of nearly one-half percent annually on US demand growth over the next five years. As the Federal Reserve moves to normalize US monetary policy, it may need to consider a gentler rise in interest rates than it might otherwise have pursued, both to temper possible further strengthening of the dollar in response to higher interest rates and to help offset the demand compression from falling net export
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and GDP
Political Geography:: United States and China

120. Recent Declines in Labor's Share in US Income: A Preliminary Neoclassical Account

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the US economy has been plagued by sluggish wage growth and rising income inequality. The debate over inequality in the 1980s and 1990s focused on the growing disparity between the earnings of skilled and unskilled workers and the earnings of the super-rich. Growing inequality between capital and labor income has now been added to these concerns. Remarkably, the growth in real GDP per worker over the decade of the 2000s, which averaged 1.7 percent annually, was actually more rapid than in the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s, yet in the 2000s workers saw almost no increase in their take-home pay. Consistent with this gap between labor productivity and wage growth was a pronounced decline in the share of US national income earned by workers. As labor's share has declined, the share of capital has risen and has been especially concentrated in corporate profits. As profits are far less equally distributed than wages, this increase has contributed to rising income inequality. There are several plausible reasons for this development—globalization, automation, weak bargaining power of labor, political capture, higher markups—but the natural starting point for explaining factor income shares is the neoclassical theory of the functional distribution of income enumerated by John Hicks and Joan Robinson in the 1930s. In this framework there are two possible explanations for labor's recent declining share. The first is that capital and labor are gross substitutes, and the second is that capital and labor are gross complements. Several papers have explained the recent decline in labor's share in income by claiming that capital has been substituted for labor. Lawrence puts forward the alternative "gross complements" explanation for the declining US labor share. He shows that despite a rise in measured capital-labor ratios, labor-augmenting technical change in the United States has been sufficiently rapid that effective capital-labor ratios have actually fallen in the sectors and industries that account for the largest portion of the declining labor share in income since 1980. In combination with estimates that corroborate the consensus in the literature that the elasticity of substitution is less than 1, these declines in the effective capital-labor ratio can account for much of the recent fall in labor's share in US income at both the aggregate and industry level. Paradoxically, these results also suggest that increased capital formation, ideally achieved through a progressive consumption tax, would raise labor's share in income.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States

121. Creating Korea's Future Economy: Innovation, Growth, and Korea-US Economic Relations

Author:: Sean P. Connell
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Korean government's "creative economy" agenda reflects growing consensus that Korea's future growth and prosperity depends on its ability to become a global leader in developing and commercializing innovative new products, services, and business models. To succeed, the Korean government must address regulatory, structural, educational, and cultural obstacles that have constrained Korea's ability to fully utilize its innovative capacities. This new emphasis on innovation brings Korea into closer alignment with the United States, which has long focused on innovation in its growth strategies. Moreover, it comes during the early stages of implementation of the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), which intersects with important areas of Korea's innovation framework policies. Policymakers, businesses, and researchers in both countries should examine potential new opportunities to increase cooperation around initiatives aimed at fostering innovation and growth, both within the bilateral context and at a global level.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States

122. Why Puerto Rico's Economy Matters for U.S. Security

Author:: Jose J. Villamil
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Puerto Rico's economic situation circa 1950 was vastly different than today's. In the 1940s through the first half of the 60s, the island experienced a sustained boom, with annual growth rates on the order of 7 percent; the island was hailed as a model for developing countries. It instituted major reforms in government, economic and social programs, and the health sector. Puerto Rico, in coordination with the U.S. federal government, hosted thousands of observers from around the world who came to Puerto Rico to learn about its successful development model.
Topic:: Crime, Economics, Narcotics Trafficking, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

123. Recalcitrance and initiative: US hegemony and regional powers in Asia and Europe after World War II

Author:: Arthur A. Stein
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that US power and preferences following World War II led to bilateralism in Asia and multilateralism in Western Europe. It argues that the challenges facing the United States in both regions were similar, as were US policies meant to address them. With some lag, the United States supported the economic recovery of the regional powers it had defeated (Germany and Japan), saw the restoration of regional trade as a prerequisite, sought military bases to assure postwar security, and envisioned rearming its former foes as part of its security strategy. The outcomes in the two regions reï¬‚ected the preferences and reservations of regional actors. The critical differences between the regions were structural. The existence of middle powers was critical in Europe, the return of colonial powers to Asia precluded regional arrangements in the short term, and geostrategic differences shaped the requisites for regional security.
Topic:: Economics and War
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Asia

124. Rethinking the National Export Initiative

Author:: Caroline Freund
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: As the United States struggled with unemployment and other effects of the Great Recession in January 2010, President Barack Obama set the goal of doubling exports within five years and creating 2 million new export-related jobs. Four years later, however, exports are less than halfway toward that goal and the rate of export growth is slowing. More worrisome, the administration's strategy failed to boost average export growth from historical levels, despite the robust recovery in international trade after the collapse of 2009. The National Export Initiative (NEI) has come up short.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: United States

125. Monetary Policy with Abundant Liquidity: A New Operating Framework for the Federal Reserve

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon and Brian Sack
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The dramatic increase in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet since 2009 has attracted the attention of economists, pundits, and ordinary citizens. The amount of assets held by the Fed recently crossed $4 trillion and will likely continue to rise to a peak of about $4.5 trillion. This run-up in asset holdings has resulted from the Fed's large-scale asset purchase programs, which were intended to support economic growth. However, a side-effect of these asset purchases is the creation of unprecedented amounts of liquidity in the financial system.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States

126. Income Inequality Developments in the Great Recession

Author:: Tomas Hellebrandt
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Great Recession, which cost tens of millions of jobs, a collapse of asset values around the world, and threatened the global financial system, has generated renewed concern over the long-standing issue of the fairness of the distribution of wealth and income in many societies. Economic inequality has increased in the United States and many other advanced economies over the past 20 to 30 years. This trend generated less worry in the boom years, when unemployment rates were low and cheap credit enabled consumers to borrow and maintain higher standards of living, masking the impact of growing income disparity on consumption patterns and perceptions of well-being.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Ireland

127. Addressing Currency Manipulation Through Trade Agreements

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: A bipartisan majority in both Houses of Congress is insisting that the United States include a provision in future trade agreements that would bar currency manipulation. A letter from 60 senators to Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew and United States Trade Representative (USTR) Michael From an on September 23, 2013, called for "strong and enforceable foreign currency manipulation disciplines" in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) while 230 members of the House of Representatives told President Barack Obama on June 6, 2013, that "it is imperative that (the TPP) address currency manipulation.to create a level playing field for American businesses and prevent more US jobs from being shipped overseas." The trade promotion authority (TPA) legislation proposed by congressional trade leaders on January 9, 2014, establishes the avoidance of currency manipulation as a "principal US negotiating objective" in its future trade agreements.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States

128. Making Labor Market Reforms Work for Everyone: Lessons from Germany

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Mark Twain once wrote an essay about the difficulties of learning what he called "The Awful German Language." Similar barriers to comprehension seem to plague those trying to explain recent German economic performance. By most measures, Germany has the best functioning labor market among large economies in the West, with levels of employment reaching those in the United States at the end of the turbo-charged 1990s. A debate has stirred, however, about whether this success has come with a price—specifically, whether Germany's domestic structural reforms have lowered living standards for Germany's low income workers and worsened income inequality and whether Germany is fortuitously and perhaps selfishly riding a wave of strong foreign demand for German exports.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Germany

129. Latin America's tourism boom — Evangelicalism in Brazil.

Author:: Olivia Ruggles-Brise
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Latin America's travel and tourism industry took a hit during the 2008–2009 recession. International arrivals slowed and tourists had less money to spend. But over the longer term, tourism has been a success story—and forecasts suggest continued growth. That should surprise no one. Latin America's sheer diversity in scenic beauty, cuisine and cultures has combined with an increasingly sophisticated domestic industry to cater to every kind of traveler. Since 2006, tourism's direct contribution to GDP in Latin America has grown by 7 percent in real terms—more than double the world average—to reach an estimated $134 billion in 2011. This figure, which is projected to rise to $224 billion in 2022, includes revenue generated by tourism-oriented services such as hotels and airlines, as well as restaurant and leisure industries that cater to tourists. Forecasts for this year suggest tourism's direct contributions will grow by 6.5 percent, behind only Northeast and South Asia (6.7 percent).
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Brazil, and Latin America

130. ASEAN Centrality and the ASEAN-US Economic Relationship

Author:: Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: ASEAN has become a focal point of the rapidly changing economic architecture of the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN members are increasingly stable and politically confident, and constitute an emerging economic powerhouse. The region is dynamic, with 600 million citizens and a gross domestic product (GDP) that exceeds $2 trillion and is expected to grow 6 percent annually for the next two decades. (The Appendix at the end of this paper reports detailed output and trade projections to 2025.) Through deeper internal integration via the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and external initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ASEAN is becoming a driving force in regional cooperation and a much-courted economic partner. The AEC and the RCEP projects are globally significant: the AEC could generate powerful demonstration effects for other developing regions, and the RCEP could become an important building bloc of the multilateral trading system.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States, East Asia, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

131. Global Trends of Multi-Factor Productivity

Author:: Jeong Yeon Lee
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Multi-factor productivity (MFP) compares the growth of gross domestic product with the growth of combined capital and labor inputs. The growth rate of MFP assumes theoretical significance because it represents the slope of the steady-state growth path, and hence is a major determinant of the long-term growth trend. This paper offers the balanced panel of the estimated growth rates of MFP for 24 OECD countries over 1986-2011. Based on the estimates of MFP growth, a number of notable trends in productivity growth are identified for the entire OECD area as well as three major economies – the United States, the Eurozone and Japan – within the OECD.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Europe

132. Scaling Clean Energy: Lessons Learned and New Approaches

Author:: Roger Ballentine and Andy Karsner
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: We are still in the early stages of a transformation of the U.S. electricity sector into a cleaner, more flexible, more resilient, and more dynamic system. The early history of investment in and adoption of clean energy technologies and practices has been mixed. The venture capital model has proven to be inadequate for scaling up clean energy, and anticipated policy developments have been slow to be realized. The sector-reshaping impact of unconventional gas, uneven capitalization of clean energy companies, and the mixed signals of government policymakers have slowed the march to a more distributed energy economy rooted in the greater use of renewables, the more efficient use of energy, and the optimization of information technologies in the energy sector.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

133. Supporting The Internet as a Platform for International Trade

Author:: Joshua Meltzer
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This paper is about the potential of the Internet as a platform for international trade. A traditional understanding of the impact of the Internet on commerce is derived from the dot.com experience of the 1990s, where Internet companies such as Pets.com and Amazon sold goods online. Since then, the impact of the Internet on commerce has grown and changed. Certainly, the ability to sell goods online remains important. However, the key development is that the Internet is no longer only a digital storefront. Instead, the Internet as described in this working paper is a platform for businesses to sell to customers domestically and overseas, and is a business input that increases productivity and the ability of businesses to compete. Understanding the Internet as a platform for trade highlights its broad economic potential. It emphasizes how the commercial opportunities are no longer limited to Internet companies, but are now available for businesses in all sectors of the economy, from manufacturing to services. Moreover, the global nature of the Internet means that these opportunities are no longer limited to domestic markets, but are embraced wherever Internet access is available.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Europe

134. Do Trends in U.S. Inequality Matter for Norms of Global Governance? Concepts and Empirics for Debate

Author:: Carol Graham
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The United States has long been viewed as the "land of opportunity," where those who work hard get ahead. Belief in this feature of American national identity has persisted even though inequality has been rising for de¬cades. In recent years, the trend toward extremes of income and wealth has accelerated significantly, owing to demographic shifts, the skills bias of the economy and fiscal policy. From 1997 to 2007, the share of income accru¬ing to the top 1 percent of U.S. households increased by 13.5 percentage points, which is equivalent to shifting $1.1 trillion in total annual income to this group - more than the total income of the bottom 40 percent of households. The precise impact of inequality on individual well-being remains controversial, partly because of the complex nature of the metrics needed to gauge it accurately, but also because why it matters depends on what it signals. If inequality is perceived to be the result of just reward for individual effort, then it can be a constructive signal of future opportunities. However, if it is perceived to be the result of an unfair system that rewards a privileged few, inequality can undermine incentives to work hard and invest in the future. In this sense, current U.S. trends have been largely destructive. Economic mobility, for example, has declined in recent decades and is now lower than in many other industrialized countries. There is also a strong intergenerational income correlation (about 0.5) in the U.S.; children of parents who earn 50 percent more than the average are likely to earn 25 percent above the average of their generation. In a world in which individuals' fates are increasingly linked and effective gover¬nance depends on some kind of consensus on social and distributive justice norms, growing income differentials in one country - especially one that has long served as a beacon of economic opportunity - can affect behavior elsewhere, both in terms of investments in education and the labor market and the propensity to protest. More generally, declining economic mobility in the U.S. could undermine confidence in the principles of market econo¬mies and democratic governance that America has espoused for decades - principles that are fundamental to many countries' development strategies.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States and Germany

135. Strategic Recalibration: Framework for a 21st-Century National Security Strategy'

Author:: Bruce W. Jentleson
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The release of the Obama administration's 2014 National Security Strategy comes amidst increasing criticism of its strategic savvy. Some are rank partisan, some Monday-morning quarterbacking. Some, though, reflect the intensifying debate over the optimal U.S. foreign policy strategy for our contemporary era.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

136. Boxing with Elephants: Can Canada Punch above Its Weight in Global Financial Governance?

Author:: James M. Boughton
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Canadians have long harboured a desire to "punch above their weight" in international diplomacy, an aspiration justified by Canada's position in the world both geographically and culturally. This paper examines one aspect of that effort: Canada's role in international financial governance, particularly within the International Monetary Fund. The key issue for the future is whether Canada will continue to have the capacity and the will to take leading positions and actions in the face of increasing competition from the rapidly growing emerging market countries.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and Canada

137. The China-United States BIT negotiations: A Chinese perspective

Author:: Sheng Zhang
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The China-US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) negotiations have attracted attention due to the relative size and weight of both economies. Despite broad consensus about the importance of such a treaty, there is considerable debate about its shape and content. The debate is reflected in two recent Columbia FDI Perspectives. Donnelly argued that a China-US BIT should be modeled on the US Model BIT without "splitting the difference between Chinese and US positions", and that the possibility of meaningful BIT negotiations are "really up to China at this point".
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Colombia

138. Andrew Selee on the road ahead for Mexico and the U.S. and Saskia Sassen reviews Moisés Naím's redefinition of power relations.

Author:: Saskia Sassen, Andrew Selee, and Moses Naim
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead by Shannon O'Neil BY ANDREW SELEE Click here to view a video interview with Shannon O'Neil. No relationship in the Western Hemisphere is more critical for the United States than its relationship with Mexico. U.S. security is closely tied to Mexico's ability (and willingness) to strengthen its legal and judicial system, and to Mexico's economic potential. And conversely, an improving American economy will have an outsized impact on Mexico's future development. In Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead, Shannon K. O'Neil, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, provides both a readable recent history of Mexico and a cogent argument for why U.S. policymakers, business leaders and citizens should care about the future of their southern neighbor. In one of her more compelling passages, she imagines what it would be like if Mexico's economy were to take off as Spain's did in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:: Corruption and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

139. U.S. seaport expansion — Dual-language instruction in the U.S. — Capital controls in the region

Author:: Kurt J. Nagle
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Infrastructure: U.S. Seaport Expansion BY KURT J. NAGLE U.S. seaports are in an enhancement and expansion mode. While the widening of the Panama Canal may serve as the catalyst for some of the anticipated $9.2 billion in annual facilities investment in the foreseeable future, this is only part of the story. Several other factors are propelling this huge investment of private capital into U.S. ports. One is the rebounding domestic economy: the value of U.S. exports has risen 70 percent and imports have increased by 53 percent since the first half of 2009. Another driver is the increasing overseas demand for U.S. exports, particularly among the growing middle class in Latin America and parts of Asia. In fact, in the next decade, total U.S. exports are projected to surpass imports for the first time in a generation. Yet another consideration is that manufacturing operations are returning to North America, a development known as “nearsourcing.” With rising labor costs overseas, a narrowing labor differential at home and long transit times to market, a Michigan-based AlixPartners survey conducted in 2012 found that 9 percent of manufacturing executives have already taken steps to “near-source” their operations, and 33 percent plan to do so within the next three years.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, California, and North America

140. Celebrating Germany in Brazil — Dominica hosts the World Creole Festival — Tackling Mexico City's traffic jams —10 Things to Do in Antigua

Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Prost, Brazil! Grab a stein-full of caipirinha and stroll down to Ipanema beach in your lederhosen—it's Germany-Brazil Year in Brazil. The yearlong festival, aimed at deepening German-Brazilian relations, kicked off in May with the opening of the German-Brazilian Economic Forum in São Paulo. “Brazil is one of the most successful new centers of power in the world,” says Guido Westerwelle, Germany's foreign minister. “We want to intensify cooperation with Brazil, not only economically but also culturally.” It's no surprise that Brazil, the sixth-largest economy in the world, has caught the attention of Europe's financial powerhouse. Brazil is Germany's most important trading partner in Latin America, accounting for $14.2 billion in imports in 2012. With some 1,600 German companies in Brazil providing 250,000 jobs and 17 percent of industrial GDP, it's an economic relationship that clearly has mutual benefits.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:: United States, New York, Europe, Brazil, Germany, and Mexico

141. John Carey on Latin American populism — Adriana La Rotta on the narco years in Colombia — Nancy Pérez on Central American migrants

Author:: John Carey, Adriana La Rotta, and Nancy Perez
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Latin American Populism in the Twenty-First Century edited by Carlos de la Torre and Cynthia J. Arnson BY JOHN M. CAREY Legend has it that on his deathbed, Juan Domingo Perón, the former President of Argentina, uttered a curse condemning any would-be biographer to dedicate his or her career to defining populism. Or perhaps the curse was issued on the lost page of the late Brazilian President Getúlio Vargas' suicide note, or slipped in among the bills in an envelope passed surreptitiously by Alberto Fujimori to some Peruvian legislator, or whispered by the recently deceased Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez into the ear of his successor, Nicolás Maduro. No matter. Whoever first uttered the curse, it worked: political scientists studying the region have wrestled and been obsessed with the concept for decades. We want to write about populism. Indeed, we need to write about it, because populism is among the most important and persistent phenomena in modern Latin American politics. But because the populist label has been applied to such a broad array of phenomena, we are condemned to define it before we can embark on any serious analysis. Academic exactitude being what it is, this leads first to extended consideration of what others have held populism to be, followed by a self-perpetuating and seemingly inescapable cycle of judgment, distinction and justification.
Topic:: Economics and Migration
Political Geography:: United States, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, and Central America

142. Second Revolution on Euromaidan: What Next for Ukraine?

Author:: Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The rapid succession of events in Ukraine is impressive but the story is far from over: the state faces an economic crisis and the risk of default; pro-Russian separatism in Crimea threatens the territorial integrity of the country. How should the new government deal with these old challenges and what role could be envisaged for the EU and the US to assist Ukraine in this difficult moment of its statehood? The main objective of the Ukrainian government should be to stand united to overcome the monumental economic, social and political crisis. The EU and the US should encourage coalition-building initiatives to achieve this end. As for the separatist claims, Kiev needs to be more proactive in accommodating minority rights, while the EU should boost people-to-people contacts and promote cooperation between western and eastern Ukrainian civil society. In order to encourage long-lasting political and social reforms, the EU should begin to talk about Ukraine's membership perspective. On the international level, the West should acknowledge that Russia is part of the problem, but also an indispensable part of the solution. Securing Ukraine's integration within the EU, but maintaining the neutrality of its security posture may be a possible way out.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States and Ukraine

143. Comparing the Incidence of Taxes and Social Spending in Brazil and the United States

Author:: Nora Lustig, Timothy Smeeding, Sean Higgins, and Whitney Ruble
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: We perform the first comprehensive fiscal incidence analyses in Brazil and the US, including direct cash and food transfers, targeted housing and heating subsidies, public spending on education and health, and personal income, payroll, corporate income, property, and expenditure taxes. In both countries, primary spending is close to 40 percent of GDP. The US achieves higher redistribution through direct taxes and transfers, primarily due to underutilization of the personal income tax in Brazil and the fact that Brazil's highly progressive cash and food transfer programs are small while larger transfer programs are less progressive. However, when health and non-tertiary education spending are added to income using the government cost approach, the two countries achieve similar levels of redistribution. This result may be a reflection of better-off households in Brazil opting out of public services due to quality concerns rather than a result of government effort to make spending more equitable.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Food
Political Geography:: United States and Brazil

144. Does Development Reduce Migration?

Author:: Michael Clemens
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The most basic economic theory suggests that rising incomes in developing countries will deter emigration from those countries, an idea that captivates policymakers in international aid and trade diplomacy. A lengthy literature and recent data suggest something quite different: that over the course of a "mobility transition", emigration generally rises with economic development until countries reach upper-middle income, and only thereafter falls. This note quantifies the shape of the mobility transition in every decade since 1960. It then briefly surveys 45 years of research, which has yielded six classes of theory to explain the mobility transition and numerous tests of its existence and characteristics in both macro- and micro-level data. The note concludes by suggesting five questions that require further study.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Social Stratification, Social Movement, and Developing World
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, and Mexico

145. The Health Financing Transition: A Conceptual Framework and Empirical Evidence

Author:: William Savedoff and Victoria Fan
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Almost every country exhibits two important health financing trends: health spending per person rises and the share of out-of-pocket spending on health services declines. We describe these trends as a "health financing transition" to provide a conceptual framework for understanding health markets and public policy. Using data over 1995-2009 from 126 countries, we examine the various explanations for changes in health spending and its composition with regressions in levels and first differences. We estimate that the income elasticity of health spending is about 0.7, consistent with recent comparable studies. Our analysis also shows a significant trend in health spending - rising about 1 percent annually - which is associated with a combination of changing technology and medical practices, cost pressures and institutions that finance and manage healthcare. The out-of-pocket share of total health spending is not related to income, but is influenced by a country's capacity to raise general revenues. These results support the existence of a health financing transition and characterize how public policy influences these trends.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Health, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States

146. The EU's Use of 'Targeted' Sanctions: Evaluating effectiveness

Author:: Clara Portela
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This study analyses the use by the European Union of the novel concept of 'targeted sanctions' in the framework of its Common Foreign and Security Policy. It examines two sets of sanctions regimes featuring different degrees of efficacy: in Myanmar and Zimbabwe, the EU wielded measures in support of human rights and democracy objectives in the absence of a United Nations mandate, while it supplemented UN sanctions to stop nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea. The study highlights a number of facilitators of, or hindrances to, the efficacy of sanctions, such as the degree of support by regional powers or the presence of UN legitimation. It concludes that the EU sanctions regimes could be optimised by using more robust measures, designing them on the basis of ex ante assessments, enabling faster upgrades, monitoring their impact and adjusting them regularly and improving outreach efforts.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, United Nations, and Zimbabwe

147. Launching a New Chapter in U.S.-Africa Relations

Author:: Richard Downie and Jennifer G. Cooke
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Africa's changing economic landscape is prompting a shift in how U.S. policymakers view the continent. High growth rates, new technologies, and a rapidly expanding consumer class are driving greater global competition for investment and access to potential export markets, and the United States is recognizing that it will need to step up its game to remain relevant and influential in an increasingly crowded and competitive environment. This will mean placing a stronger emphasis on strengthening trade and investment ties and encouraging U.S. companies to take fuller advantage of expanding opportunities. Playing up these opportunities will not only serve long-term U.S. commercial interests in Africa but will serve U.S. development and diplomatic objectives as well. U.S. investments, done right, can have long-term development impacts in Africa, through technology and knowledge transfer, training, systems development, and partnerships. And a new, more optimistic engagement with Africa's citizens and entrepreneurs will have strong resonance with the continent's up-and-coming generation, creating links based on enduring mutual interest.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and United States

148. A New Development Agenda

Author:: Daniel F. Runde and Scott Miller
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The link between economic development and state security has been well established but is still too often overlooked. Former secretary of defense Robert Gates argued in support of development efforts as a form of “preventative diplomacy,” preventing the conditions where violent crises occur that may require more aggressive intervention. For example, rising food prices in Egypt have been cited as a major instigator for the protests that overthrew Hosni Mubarak. That does not mean that Mubarak could have stayed in power if only food were more affordable, but higher levels of economic development and the concurrent factors that encourage it could have made the transition more stable and less violent.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States

149. U.S.-Russia Health Engagement

Author:: Judyth L. Twigg
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the last few years, Russia's relationship with the United States has traveled a swift and seemingly deliberate arc from partner to pariah. The current turmoil in Ukraine and near-certain resulting isolation of Russia culminate several years' worth of deteriorating ties. The Edward Snowden mess, disagreements over Syria and Iran, dismay over the eroding human rights environment in Russia, and now Russian annexation of Crimea have led the previously heralded "reset" to an unceremonious end. What are the implications of these and related developments for U.S.-Russia collaboration in medicine and public health? Should avenues of partnership remain open, even in such a frosty political context? Should the international community support Russia's health sector when ample resources exist within Russia itself? Is it even possible anymore?
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and North America

150. India's Nonperforming Assets: A Lurking Crisis

Author:: Rasika Gynedi
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Asset quality in India's banks has deteriorated sharply and if not tackled promptly poses a systemic risk to the banking system—and by extension the Indian economy. A high proportion of nonperforming assets (NPAs) steadily erodes the capital base of a bank, impinging on the ability of banks to raise fresh capital and continue lending for investment activities. Indeed, the spillover impact from banking crises to the real economy is all too familiar, evinced by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. However, despite this risk, the issue is not garnering sufficient attention outside the banking industry.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, South Asia, and India

151. Afghanistan after the Drawdown

Author:: Gerald F. Hyman
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In his 2013 State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama announced that by the end of 2014 "our war in Afghanistan will be over" and, a month earlier, that "by the end of next year, 2014, the transition will be complete—Afghans will have full responsibility for their security, and this war will come to a responsible end." The military transition, successful or not, is in full swing. Of course the war will not come to an end in 2014, responsible or otherwise. Even if the military drawdown goes as planned, "America's commitment to a unified and sovereign Afghanistan will endure, but the nature of our commitment will change," the president said. On the military side, our enduring commitment will focus on training, equipping, and funding the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and "some counterterrorism efforts that allow us to pursue remnants of al Qaeda and their affiliates," presumably the Taliban. As the United States draws down, so too will the remaining coalition countries of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) under North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) command.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

152. Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy

Author:: Bruce Jones, David Steven, and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: On December 16, 2013, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's powerful former intelligence chief, gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. He was speaking out after a turbulent four months in Middle East and Persian Gulf diplomacy, diplomacy that culminated in an interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers. Prince Turki, long a close friend to the United States, used the interview to blast American policy. He was critical of U.S. strategy in the region as a whole, but particularly vehement about leaving Saudi Arabia out of the loop as the United States engaged in secret bilateral diplomacy with Iran. "How can you build trust when you keep secrets from what are supposed to be your closest allies?" he fumed.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Asia

153. IMF Reform Is Waiting on the United States

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The vital role played by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in stabilizing the world economy and financial system is in serious jeopardy. The failure in mid-January by the US Congress to approve IMF reform legislation that had been pending for more than three years did not simply bring to a screeching halt a decade of slow progress reforming the governance of the Fund to make it more representative, legitimate, and therefore effective. Congress's balking on this issue also did substantial, actual damage to the US reputation around the world, as the leaders of many countries called into question Washington's ability to deliver on promises made in international economic agreements.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

154. Governance Transfer in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

Author:: Francesco Duina
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:: While NAFTA itself does not contain any provisions for governance transfer, its two side agreements (NAALC, NAAEC) prescribe standards in the realm of human rights (labor, environment), the rule of law, and good governance and create a number of instruments for their (indirect) promotion. Through technical assistance, fora for dialogue and exchange, monitoring, and complaints procedures that can result in monetary sanctions, the side agreements aim at promoting the effective enforcement of national law rather than regional standards. These provisions reflect the same concerns in the United States and Canada that lead to the conclusion of the two side agreements in the first place: creating conditions for fair competition in light of Mexico's failure to effectively enforce national laws, resulting in de facto lower labor and environmental standards and thus lower costs compared to the northern neighbours. Beyond formal governance transfer, NAFTA has had an impact on domestic governance reforms in Mexico since the early 1990s as it was used as leverage in both international negotiations and Mexican domestic politics.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, America, Canada, North America, and Mexico

155. Celebrating Afro-Peruvian culture through dance — Bringing essential services to Detroit — Creating a global market for Guatemalan weavers — Bringing education to Chile's Indigenous people

Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Arts Innovator: Luis Antonio Vilchez, Peru Watch a video of Luis Antonio Vilchez dancing in Times Square below. Passing through New York's Times Square one winter day in 2010, Lima native Luis Antonio Vilchez noticed a group of street percussionists playing a familiar Afro-Peruvian rhythm—and immediately decided to join them. Soon, a large crowd gathered as Vilchez, wearing a button-down shirt and a winter coat, burst into a dance performance that was so impressive even the drummers watched in awe. The same kind of impromptu creativity dominates Adú Proyecto Universal (Adú Universal Project), a nonprofit arts organization Vilchez founded four years ago to re-imagine Peruvian identity through dance, theater and percussion. Financed by money the group earns from its performances, Adú (which means “friend” in limeña slang) encourages its 20 members—all dancers—to combine different dance and music genres, crossing back and forth between tradition and modernity.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and New York

156. America's Mega-Regional Trade Diplomacy: Comparing TTP and TTIP

Author:: Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The United States is currently negotiating two massive regional economic agreements, one with 11 Asian and Pacific Rim countries and the other with the 28-member European Union. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) herald a substantial shift in US foreign economic policy as Washington turns its focus from the stalemated Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations and scattered bilateral trade agreements to 'mega-regional' trade diplomacy. As the only party to both negotiations, Washington seeks to leverage issues in one to advance its interests in the other, while reinvigorating US global leadership.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Washington, and Asia

157. Curtailing the Subsidy War Within the United States

Author:: Edward Alden and Rebecca Strauss
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Each year, U.S. state and local governments spend tens of billions of dollars to lure or retain business investment. The subsidies waste scarce taxpayer dollars that could better be used to strengthen public services such as education and infrastructure, or to lower overall tax burdens to create a more favorable investment climate. No state wants to dole out such subsidies, but most fear losing jobs to competing states if they refuse. States should take steps to curb subsidies, beginning with greater disclosure and cost-benefit analyses, and building up to a multistate agreement that creates strong disincentives for continuing subsidies. Existing international arrangements provide models and tools for achieving this.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States and North America

158. Maximizing the Impact of Aid to Pakistan: Leverage Reform and Local Capacity

Author:: Richard Albright
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The effectiveness of U.S. civilian assistance to Pakistan depends on sustained funding commitments from the United States and sustained commitment to economic and institutional reform from Pakistan. Weak public institutions and poor governance have greatly impeded Pakistan's development. U.S. assistance should focus on strengthening institutions systemically. Direct assistance to the Pakistani government—through financing that supports specific reform programs and policy initiatives and cash-on-delivery mechanisms that offer assistance after agreed performance criteria are met—could incentivize Pakistani public institutions to improve service delivery. Pakistan's devolution of authority to the provinces offers an opportunity for well-targeted and cost-effective initiatives to incentivize improvements in provincial public service delivery in such areas as basic education, health and policing.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Reform
Political Geography:: Pakistan and United States

159. Western Pessimism, Asian Optimism: Three Perspectives on Global Governance

Author:: Sir Richard Jolly
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: As of 2007 the world economy has been caught in the worst crisis since the 1930s. Yet after two years of only partly successful efforts to mobilize and coordinate global action of financial control and stimulus, ending with the G-20 meeting of March 2009, responsibility for corrective economic initiatives has essentially been left to individual countries, supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU). Moreover, such support has been usually conditional on countries following financial policies of tough austerity. The United States took some actions to stimulate its economy, but by many accounts these were insufficient. Most of Europe has not even attempted stimulus measures and has been in a period of economic stagnation, with falling real incomes among the poorest parts of the population. Although some signs of “recovery” have been heralded in 2013 and 2014, growth has mostly been measured from a lower base. There is little evidence of broad-based economic recovery, let alone improvements in the situation of the poor or even of the middle-income groups.
Topic:: Economics and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Asia

160. Iran-US Relations in the Light of the Nuclear Negotiations

Author:: Kayhan Barzegar
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The nuclear negotiations between Iran and EU3+3 have provided the grounds for establishing direct talks between Iran and the United States, subsequently creating a positive prospect for solving the Iranian nuclear standoff after a decade of negotiations. The effect of economic sanctions and political change in Iran have made it possible to bring an important foreign policy issue into domestic politics discourses. The fact that the nuclear negotiations put Iran in a position comparable to the other world powers strengthened a sense of movement towards a win-win situation among Iranian political forces. All of this created a relative political consensus among Iran's ruling elites regarding the need to initiate direct talks with the United States in order to solve the Iranian nuclear standoff. The nuclear programme is also linked with the regional equation, the result of which has been the emergence of a new kind pragmatism in the conduct of Iranian regional policy in hope of revising Iran's place in US Middle East policy.
Topic:: Economics and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

161. Pakistan and Afghanistan: International Indicators of Progress

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It is unclear that the United States has any current assessments and strategy to deal with either these governance or economic issues. If it does, it has provided no transparency as to what these plans are, and has failed to develop any effective public measures of the effectiveness of its civil aid programs after more than 10 years of effort, and in spite of the fact that the civil dimension of counterinsurgency efforts is at least as important as the military efforts. It is also important to note that World Bank and UN reporting show the same lack of progress in governance, economics, and human development in Pakistan as in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and World Bank
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

162. Opportunities in the Development of Pakistan's Private Sector

Author:: Sadika Hameed
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Relations between the United States and Pakistan have begun to improve after several years of heightened tensions. Yet many challenges remain. Among them is how to improve Pakistan's economy. Its economic crisis is one of the main sources of its internal tensions, but multiple opportunities exist to improve its economic performance. The policy debate in the United States, however, is still dominated by a focus on terrorism and extremism. While Pakistan's stability is a natural concern for the United States, focusing primarily on security issues limits the options for improving stability.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:: Pakistan and United States

163. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:: Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul in July 2014 shows how the relations between China and South Korea have taken center stage in North- East Asia. Both countries are building up a growing strategic partnership, as a result of emerging cross-interests in the region and robust trade relations. This dynamic underlines the dilemma Seoul faces in maintaining a strong military alliance with the United States, while turning increasingly toward China as its core partner for both its economic development and its North Korea policy.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Northeast Asia

164. Theorising the use of private military and security companies: a synthetic perspective

Author:: Andreas Kruck
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Relations and Development
Institution:: Central and East European International Studies Association
Abstract:: This article seeks to systematise and advance the theoretical debate on the causes and conditions for the privatisation of security. Drawing on previous research on private military and security companies (PMSCs) and theories from International Relations and Comparative Politics, it reconstructs functionalist, political-instrumentalist and ideationist explanations for why and under what conditions even 'strong' and democratic Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development states (extensively) use PMSCs. An analysis of inter-temporal and cross-national (United States, British, German and French) patterns of security privatisation indicates that all the three theoretical models point out causes and conditions that are relevant for a comprehensive explanation, but none is sufficient alone. Therefore, the article uses both the models and the empirical evidence to propose a synthetic perspective, which treats different explanatory conditions and logics as complementary, rather than rival. Going beyond the atheoretical conclusion that a multitude of disconnected factors are in some way relevant for a comprehensive explanation of security privatisation, I develop a thin and a thick synthesis that rely on a domain-of-application approach and sequencing, respectively. The thin synthesis spells out how different explanatory factors operate in specific domains, whereas the thick synthesis elaborates how different conditions and mechanisms apply to different phases of security privatisation and how they interrelate.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Germany

165. North America Time for a New Focus

Author:: Shannon K. O'Neil
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: North America was once called the New World. The people, their ideas, and the resources of the continent shaped the histories of the Old World—East and West. Today, North America is home to almost five hundred million people living in three vibrant democracies. If the three North American countries deepen their integration and cooperation, they have the potential to again shape world affairs for gen-erations to come.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and America

166. Speaking a Common Language with Latin America: Economics

Author:: Jose W. Fernandez
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: United States-Latin American relations have often suffered from a disconnect. While we stress security issues, the region's leaders speak of poverty reduction and trade. They resent being seen as afterthoughts to U.S. policies focused elsewhere. As a result, the region is sporadically open to new suitors, such as Spanish investors 15 years ago, or the Chinese today.
Topic:: Economics and Poverty
Political Geography:: United States, China, Latin America, and Spain

167. Bringing the European Union Back on the Agenda of Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Özge Zi̇hni̇oğlu
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The EU has been successfully exercising its conditionality as a key aspect of its enlargement strategy since the 1990s. However, with no accession prospect in sight and the perceived lack of credibility and consistency of the EU's conditionality, Turkey's already unequal partnership with Europe has been thrown further off balance. This article argues that this is not the case, as the EU retains its leverage over Turkey, even in the absence of factors that are known as central to the successful implementation of the EU's conditionality. This article suggests two main reasons. First, despite the rhetoric on the interdependence of Turkish and the EU economy, this interdependence is not on equal footing and the Turkish economy is heavily dependent on the EU. Second, there is rising concern in Turkey over free trade talks between the EU and the United States, with its potential impact on the Turkish economy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Turkey

168. Wages and Labor Market Slack: Making the Dual Mandate Operational

Author:: Adam S. Posen and David G. Blanchflower
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In this paper we examine the impact of rises in inactivity on wages in the US economy and find evidence of a statistically significant negative effect. These nonparticipants exert additional downward pressure on wages over and above the impact of the unemployment rate itself. This pattern holds across recent decades in the US data, and the relationship strengthens in recent years when variation in participation increases. We also examine the impact of long-term unemployment on wages and find it has no different effect from that of short-term unemployment. Our analysis provides strong empirical support, we argue, for the assessment that continuing labor market slack is a key reason for the persistent shortfall in inflation relative to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent inflation goal. Further, we suggest our results point towards using wage inflation as an additional intermediate target for monetary policy by the FOMC.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

169. TSG IntelBrief: The U.S.-India Relationship Reinvigorated

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's September visit to the United States allowed for the "soft reset" of a strategic partnership that has been in search of greater focus in recent years The smiles and handshakes served to ease the anxieties that had been building on both sides and had contributed to increased squabbling in the bilateral relationship Mutual frustrations are likely to continue in areas such as intellectual property rights and multilateral trade negotiations, where there has been no reconciliation in the two countries' largely incompatible points of view The U.S. and India share clearly convergent interests in both combating Islamist militancy and in balancing against a rising China Although the partnership's full potential is far from realized, these two geostrategic issues are sufficient to keep the trajectory positive and to sustain widely-held hopes that ties between the world's two largest democracies will continue to deepen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, South Asia, and India

170. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership:European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability

Author:: Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration. Furthermore, recent literature has pointed out several problems in the most influential assessment of the TTIP's effects. Projections by different institutions have been shown to rely on the same Computable General Equilibrium model that has proven inadequate as a tool for trade policy analysis. In this paper we assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. We project that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. We also project an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP. Evaluated with the United Nations model, TTIP appears to favor economic dis-integration, rather than integration, in Europe. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on TTIP.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and United Nations

171. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen

Author:: Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria

172. 2014 Financial Security Summit: Rapporteur's Report

Author:: Colby Farber
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: The 2014 Financial Security Summit examined how policymakers, the financial services industry, advocates, and academics can advance new policies and products to make it easier for households to build financial security and to reinvigorate the American Dream.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

173. Fragmentation and Concentration in the New Digital Environment

Author:: Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: In 1987, back at the dawn of the Internet age, two studies were published that provided perceptive looks at the evolution of electronic networks and the impact that they would likely have on the way business is conducted in the U.S. and globally. Both studies concluded that rapidly evolving information technologies were helping to break down old hierarchical business structures in favor of new, more decentralized models of economic activity.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: United States

174. Why Bail-In Securities Are Fool's Gold

Author:: Avinash D. Persaud
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Bailouts and bail-ins of failing financial institutions have been hotly disputed in the global financial crisis of the last five years. At the height of the crisis, several failing banks were bailed out with taxpayer money so they could service their debts, but as public outrage mounts, policymakers are increasingly looking at bailing in these institutions before using taxpayer funds. Bail-ins, also called haircuts, require the troubled institution's creditors to write off some of the debt or agree to a restructuring of the debt, which reduces their holdings. The public has demanded the imposition of these costs on creditors and bond - holders, arguing that if bad lending as well as bad borrowing went unpunished it would be encouraged. Additionally, the yawning fiscal deficits that have followed bailouts have led to unpopular fiscal retrenchment.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

175. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2014

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This semiannual review finds that most of the major international currencies, including the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, UK pound sterling, and Chinese renminbi, remain close to their fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). The new estimates find this result despite numerous significant exchange rate movements associated with increased volatility in international financial markets at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014, and despite a major reduction in the price of oil. The principal cases of exchange rate misalignment continue to be the undervalued currencies of Singapore, Taiwan, and to a lesser extent Sweden and Switzerland, and the overvalued currencies of Turkey, New Zealand, South Africa, and to a lesser extent Australia and Brazil. Even so, the medium-term current account deficit for the United States is already at the outer limit in the FEERs methodology (3 percent of GDP), and if the combination of intensified quantitative easing in Japan and the euro area with the end to quantitative easing in the United States were to cause sizable further appreciation of the dollar, an excessive US imbalance could begin to emerge.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Japan, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, and New Zealand

176. Let Bygones Be Bygones: The Case for India's Inclusion in APEC

Author:: Kevin Carmichael
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will miss the 2014 Beijing APEC summit. His former spokesman says it does not matter. "[I]t's safe to say that Canada won't lose out by skipping this particular summit, at this particular time, for this particular reason," Andrew McDougall (2014) wrote in an opinion article posted on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's (CBC's) website on November. In early October, a US State Department official told an audience in Washington, DC that Beijing was shaping up to be a "good" summit, in part because US President Barack Obama was planning to attend after missing the previous two APEC leaders' meetings (Wang 2014).
Topic:: Economics and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, India, and Asia

177. The 2014 Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

Author:: Domenico Lombardi, Barry Carin, and David Kempthorne
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The annual CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance assesses progress in four dimensions of international economic governance: macroeconomic and financial cooperation; cooperation on financial regulation; cooperation on trade; and cooperation on climate change. Governance related to these dimensions is scored on the following progress scale: 0%-19% represents "major regression"; 20%-39% represents "some regression"; 40%-59% indicates "minimal progress"; 60%-79% characterizes progress; and 80%-100% represents "major progress." Recognizing the difficulty of making objective judgments given the complexity of the issues, the results are offered as a range of subjective opinions from CIGI experts with diverse backgrounds.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

178. China's Goals in the G20: Expectation, Strategy and Agenda

Author:: Alex He
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The G20 has emerged as the lynchpin of China's involvement in global economic governance. It remains the only economic institutional setting where the country can operate on par with major Western powers. China has a strong interest in maintaining the status of the G20 as the premier forum for economic cooperation, and a vested interest in ensuring that the G20 does not degrade into yet another “talk shop” of multilateral diplomacy. However, the Chinese leadership's current approach to the G20 is not driven by a desire to position the country as a leading agenda setter. Instead, China's main policy priority is ensuring that the country is treated as an equal and respected partner. China recognizes that in many ways it is still in a comparatively weak position and does not have the institutional capabilities and talents needed to operate in global financial and economic institutions such as the G20.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and China

179. Legalization Programs and the Integration of Unauthorized Immigrants: A Comparison of S. 744 and IRCA

Author:: María E Enchautegui
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Experiences under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) may prove to be a poor guide for understanding how smoothly today's unauthorized immigrants will integrate into the economy under reform proposals such as the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S. 744). While IRCA provided a relatively quick path to legal permanent resident status, S. 744 proposes a decade long process with much attendant uncertainty. This and other provisions in S. 744 may adversely affect immigrants' integration and economic mobility.
Topic:: Economics and Immigration
Political Geography:: United States

180. Egypt's Arms Deal with Russia: Potential Strategic Costs

Author:: David Schenker and Eric Trager
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Cairo's possible purchase of advanced weapons systems from Russia could become another irritant in U.S.-Egyptian relations.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Ukraine, Middle East, and Egypt

181. Jordan's Energy Balancing Act

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A deal to buy Israeli natural gas can help mitigate the kingdom's energy shortage and steer Amman away from problematic nuclear plans, but it risks stirring domestic opposition. In February, two private Jordanian firms signed a contract with a private U.S.-Israeli consortium to import natural gas from Israel's giant Tamar field, located under the bed of the Mediterranean Sea fifty miles offshore from Haifa. The Arab Potash Company and the Jordan Bromine Company -- both partially owned by the Jordanian government -- will pay Houston-based Noble Energy and its partners $500 million over the course of fifteen years to supply a power plant at Jordanian industrial facilities by the Dead Sea. At just $33 million per year, the deal is not financially significant, but it may set a huge precedent in terms of fostering regional economic cooperation and establishing a framework for Jordanian energy security. The political challenges are significant, however, particularly following the March 10 shooting of a Jordanian man at an Israeli-controlled West Bank crossing point.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

182. Iran Seeks to Untangle UN Sanctions

Author:: Steven Ditto
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Islamic Republic has added to its nuclear negotiating team a law professor who has extensive experience making Iran's case in international disputes. On April 9, Iran and the P5+1 (Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States, plus Germany) concluded the latest two-day round of talks on a nuclear deal, setting the next round for May 13. Earlier in the week, on April 7, Iranian media reported the appointment of Dr. Jamshid Momtaz as head of a "legal advisory group" to the Iranian negotiating team. A French-educated expert on sanctions, disarmament, and UN procedure, Momtaz has represented the Iranian government in some of its highest-profile international legal proceedings, including in claims against the U.S. government at the Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ). Momtaz's familiarity with the United Nations, his extensive practice in Europe, and his proven history of leveraging complex legal arguments to advance Iran's international interests indicate that in these latest rounds of P5+1 talks Tehran is likely looking for unconventional ways to "address" and "bring a satisfactory conclusion to" the UN Security Council resolutions against it, as called for in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) agreed to in Geneva last November.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Iran, and France

183. "Don't poke the Russian bear": Turkish policy in the Ukrainian crisis

Author:: Balkan Devlen
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: From the start of the Ukrainian crisis Turkey kept a low profile and adopted a strategy best described as "don't poke the Russian bear". Russia is a major Turkish trading partner and Turkey relies heavily on Russian natural gas for its energy needs, while Turkish prime minister Erdogan has also been dealing with serious domestic challenges in the last year. Therefore, due to both external and internal factors, Turkey will avoid confronting Russia directly and will pass the buck to the U.S. and EU. In the short to medium term there are three plausible scenarios under which Turkey will change its current policy. They include the oppression of Crimean Tatars by the Russian authorities; military confrontation in the Black Sea between Russia and NATO; or a more unified, tougher stance against Russia by the West. In the long term Turkey most likely will revert to its traditional role of balancing Russia by strengthening its ties with the West, while reducing its energy dependence on Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Asia

184. Locked In or Left Out? Transatlantic Trade Beyond Brussels and Washington

Author:: Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Many countries are interested in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that Brussels and Washington are negotiating. But the United States and the European Union (EU) began talks without devising a way to involve their main trade partners. This approach, understandable given the complexity of the negotiations, could produce a bilateral agreement that is difficult to multilateralize. To influence the negotiations, third countries interested in eventually joining TTIP should pursue an agenda centered on the accession mechanism, the elimination of nontariff barriers, and dispute settlement.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

185. Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China

Author:: Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington's primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevitable. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosperity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Washington, and Asia

186. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: A critical perspective

Author:: Rainer Geiger
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Launched in July 2013 by the European Union and the United States, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) represents an important effort to reach a comprehensive economic agreement between two major trading partners. As has been pointed out, the project offers great opportunities for liberalizing trade and investment and regulatory convergence. Its level of ambition implies high risks, but despite negotiators' initial optimism, its success is far from certain.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

187. Keeping the Peace in the Pacific: The Next Steps in American Policy

Author:: John Lee and Charles Horner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: U.S. administrations and officials are consistently caught flat-footed by the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over disputed territories in the East China and South China Seas. This assertiveness is strident, yet controlled. Beijing's objectives in the region, with respect to maritime issues in particular, have been apparent for several decades. While the United States is well aware of the PRC's "talk and take" approach—speaking the language of negotiation while extending de facto control over disputed areas—U.S. policy has been tactical and responsive rather than strategic and preemptive, thus allowing China to control the pace and nature of escalation in executing talk and take.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

188. Guatemalans returning home from the U.S. face unemployment, a maze of red tape—and social stigma. (slideshow available)

Author:: Michael McDonald
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Dispatches: Guatemalan Migrants BY Michael Mcdonald Guatemalans returning home from the U.S. face unemployment, a maze of red tape—and social stigma. (slideshow available) Read a sidebar about voluntary return migration. Read a sidebar about the stigma that return migrants face. View a slideshow of return migrants in Guatemala below. Fidelino Gómez remembers fondly the years he spent in Iowa, where his middle child was born. Standing outside his one-room wood home in his native Guatemala, Gómez, 34, thumbs through pictures he took of the Mississippi River, snowy Midwest winters and gatherings with family and friends. He recalls easier times. “We lived well,” Gómez says under the searing sun. “We could feed our children, pay our bills, and we still had money left over.” From 2004 to 2008, Gómez and his wife María earned roughly $7 an hour working at Agriprocessors Inc., a slaughterhouse and meatpacking plant in Postville, Iowa. The money was more than they ever imagined as subsistence farmers back home. But the family's dream was cut short when United States immigration officials raided the plant in May 2008, arresting hundreds of undocumented Guatemalan workers and deporting them. Now, like more than 100 other families deported after the Postville raid, they struggle to eke out a living back in the economically depressed farming village San José Calderas, some 40 miles (64 km) west of Guatemala City. They grow corn and beans to feed their loved ones and do odd jobs, scraping by on the equivalent of between $15 and $30 per month.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: United States and Guatemala

189. The Hard Reality for International Climate Agreements in the United States

Author:: Bill Brownell and Scott Stone
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The release of the second installment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report on March 31, 2014, provoked the usual calls for urgent and immediate action in response to climate change, including in particular at the international level in the form of a new climate treaty built upon domestic regulatory regimes. Irrespective of whether these calls for action are overly strident or carefully measured, the law plays a central role. In almost any discussion, the breadth and stringency of national and sub-national regulations and the extent to which a treaty can make them “legally binding” assumes paramount importance. But this emphasis on law is misplaced, because it runs headlong into the hard reality that would confront any international climate agreement in the US Senate. And given the soaring use of coal around the world, it also draws attention and resources away from far more achievable opportunities to develop and deploy advanced coal technologies that would allow the world's most abundant, accessible, and affordable energy resource to meet critical energy needs in balance with each country's environmental, economic, and security priorities.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: United States and North America

190. NATO's Framework Nations: Capabilities for an Unpredictable World

Author:: Franklin D. Kramer
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As the Ukraine crisis demonstrates, in an unpredictable world, military capabilities can be a critical factor. The longstanding goals of the United States and its NATO allies have been to create a Europe whole and free, and globally to support such goals through collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. Ukraine raises the issue of how best to accomplish those ends. As part of the Ukraine response, there have been and will continue to be diplomatic, economic, and energy efforts. However, one key element will be to create more effective integrated capabilities that will support NATO's military tasks, and thus the values and goals that NATO represents.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Ukraine, and North America

191. Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement and the Future of European and Asian Energy

Author:: Pinar Dost-Niyego and Orhan Taner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

192. Companions in Competitiveness: How France and the United States Can Help Each Other Succeed in the Twenty-first Century

Author:: Nicholas Dungan
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Competitiveness encompasses all the factors that will serve to make a society, an economy, and a country successful in the globalized world of the twenty-first century. France and the United States rank among the most competitive countries overall, but both have seen their position decline in recent years in key attributes of competitiveness.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and France

193. The Quality of Official Development Assistance 2014

Author:: Nancy Birdsall, Homi Kharas, and Nabil Hashmi
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The Quality of Official Development Assistance (QuODA) measures donors' performance on 31 indicators of aid quality to which donors have made commitments. The indicators are grouped into four dimensions associated with effective aid: maximizing efficiency, fostering institutions, reducing the burden on partner countries, and transparency and learning. The 2014 edition finds that donors are overall becoming more transparent and better at fostering partner country institutions but that there has been little progress at maximizing efficiency or reducing the burden on partner countries. The World Bank's concessional lending arm, the International Development Association (IDA), performs very well in QuODA, ranking in the top 10 of 31 donors on all four dimensions. The United States ranks in the bottom half of all donors on three of the four dimensions of aid quality and last on reducing the burden on partner countries. The United Kingdom ranks in the top third on three of four dimensions of aid quality and scores particularly well on transparency and learning. The Global Fund ranks in the bottom third on fostering institutions but ranks in the top third on the other three dimensions of aid quality, including the top spot in maximizing efficiency.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States and United Kingdom

194. US Policies toward Liquefied Natural Gas and Oil Exports: An Update

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Cathleen Cimino
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Unconventional extraction methods, namely horizontal drilling and fracking, are transforming global energy production, consumption, and trade. Th e extraction of large amounts of oil and gas from shale formations has led to an unprecedented surge of domestic production in the United States. Th e US Department of Energy (DOE) is now processing more than 40 applications from domestic producers to export liquefi ed natural gas (LNG). While experts still disagree about the magnitude and duration of the energy boom, we are at the "dawn of a US oil and gas renaissance" (Houser and Mohan 2014).
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States and North America

195. Economic Statecraft Redux: Improving the U.S. State Department's Effectiveness in International Economic Policy

Author:: Robert A. Pollard and Gregory N. Hicks
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: At a time when economics has become a more central feature of international relations, the United States needs to raise its game in international economic policy to sustain global leadership. Yet the U.S. government is not well organized at present to meet this challenge.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

196. Power Shift and Renminbi Internationalization: Recommendations for the G20

Author:: Raluca Diana Ardelean and Mengun Zhang
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China has gained substantial economic power in recent years, becoming the second-largest trading nation after the United States and the largest goods-trading nation since 2012 (Eichengreen 2014). It is also currently the largest source of savings and the largest potential source of capital for international investment (ibid.). Measured by GDP, China is now the second-largest economy in the world (see Figure 1), and the World Bank surmises it is likely to surpass the United States in 2014 (World Bank 2014). Because of China's growing economic importance, a shift in power is reasonably assumed. As its economic power grows, internationalization of the RMB has become a key policy goal for China, especially after the 2008 financial crisis (Zhang 2009; Park 2010; China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC] 2014). This goal demonstrates China's desire for better integration and representation in the international economic community and signals its willingness to perform internal financial reforms and take more responsibility in global economic affairs.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

197. Anthony Spanakos looks at Venezuela befoAnthony Spanakos looks at Venezuela before Chávez — Roger-Mark De Souza examines Indigenous rights and Amazon oil conflicts — Johanna Mendelson Forman on new approaches to regional security.

Author:: Johanna Mendelson, Anthony Spanakos, and Roger-Mark De Souza
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Venezuela Before Chávez: Anatomy of an Economic Collapse by Ricardo Hausmann and Francisco R. Rodríguez BY ANTHONY SPANAKOS During the 1970s, Venezuela was the richest country in Latin America. With the region's highest growth rates and the lowest levels of inequality, it was also one of the most stable democracies in the Americas. But starting in the early 1980s, things fell apart. The nation endured three coup attempts and one presidential impeachment. Per capita growth plunged, and mass protests became the norm. What happened? Venezuela Before Chávez: Anatomy of an Economic Collapse, edited by Ricardo Hausmann and Francisco R. Rodríguez, offers some intriguing answers. Pointedly departing from much of the current research (and political discussion) on Venezuela, which focuses on the 14-year presidency (1999–2013) of late President Hugo Chávez, the editors have assembled a distinguished group of experts with the aim not only of exploring, as they put it, the “enigma” of Venezuela's pre-Chávez collapse, but to explain why some countries go through such turbulence. The unexpected outcomes in Venezuela are used by the authors to challenge hypotheses that rely on big data analysis to explain economic collapse. While the explanation behind Chávez' rise to power may draw attention, as Venezuela continues to be rocked by internal conflict following his death, it is the book's second aim that makes it stand out as an important work of scholarship.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: United States

198. ASSYMETRIC WARFARE: EXPERIENCES, PERSPECTIVES, INKLING AND CHALLENGES WITH A FOCUS ON ZIMBABWE

Author:: Raymond Mharapara, Lucky Bassie Bangidza, and Steven Gwekwere
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The world has become dependent on interdependence and globalization because the processes that promote worldwide exchanges of national and cultural resources are generating further interdependence of economic and cultural activities (Robertson 2000). Therefore, one can state that religion and culture are no longer only important ingredients of civilization , but potential causes of division and isolation. A good example is that only a few Muslim governments overtly supported Saddam Hussein, many Arab States privately cheered him on, and he was highly popular among large sections of Arab populaces. When invoking parallels and using them as strong rallying points, Muslims contrasted Western actions against Iraq with the West's failure to protect Bosnia against Serbs and also to impose sanctions on Israel for violating UN resolutions (Huntington 2006, 447). As a result, differences in power and struggles for military, economic and institutional power are now sources of conflict between the West and other civilisations. Consequently, it could be assumed that fundamental economic reforms give rise to necessary political transformation.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Zimbabwe

199. What Drove the Mid-2000s' Explosiveness in Alternative Energy Stock Prices? Evidence from US, European and Global Indices

Author:: Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Philipp Kaufmann
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Soaring prices in European alternative energy stocks and their subsequent tumble have attracted attention from both investors and academics. This paper extends recent research to an international setting and analyzes whether the explosive price behaviour of the mid-2000s was driven by rising crude oil prices and an overall bullish market sentiment. Inflation-adjusted US alternative energy stock prices do not exhibit signs of explosiveness. By contrast, we find strong evidence of explosive price behaviour for European and global sector indices, even after controlling for a set of explanatory variables. Interestingly, while the sector indices plunged with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, idiosyncratic components continued to rise and did not start to decline until after world equity markets had already begun to recover in 2009. This finding suggests a substantial revaluation of alternative energy stock prices in light of intensifying sector competition and shrinking sales margins, and casts some doubts on the existence of a speculative bubble. Nevertheless, this paper observes temporary episodes of explosiveness between 2005 and 2007 followed by rapid collapses, indicating the presence of some irrational exuberance among investors.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

200. The Northwest Territories and Arctic Maritime Development in the Beaufort Area

Author:: John Higginbotham and Marina Grosu
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The Arctic is facing remarkable climatic and oceanic change that is triggering unprecedented opportunities and challenges for Arctic nations, as well as for countries that do not have Arctic territory but are eager to engage and invest in the region. For Canada and the United States, the Beaufort basin offers unique opportunities for Alaska and Canada's Arctic territories.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, North America, and Arctic

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS