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81. Iran and the Israel-Hamas War

Author:
Alistair Taylor and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode, MEI's Editor in Chief Alistair Taylor talks to Iran Program Director Alex Vatanka about Iran and the Israel-Hamas war. As fighting rages in Gaza and the prospects for regional escalation continue to mount, Iran will remain a critical actor to watch. It is not only Israel’s main regional foe but also the leading provider of military aid and training for Hamas. Given the centrality of Iran in this latest Middle Eastern war, understanding how Tehran views the conflict and its endgame will be critical.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hamas, Armed Conflict, Escalation, Military Aid, Regional Politics, and October 7
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

82. The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea

Author:
Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea, author Shadi Hamid explores what he describes as the ‘democratic dilemma,’ the U.S. desire for democracy in theory but not in practice. Hamid cites the rise of Islamist parties during a wave of democratic elections across the Middle East, which he argues produced outcomes the U.S. was not intending, such as the empowerment of Hamas in Gaza following the 2006 Palestinian elections. Reviewing the lessons learned from the past two decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Hamid proposes ‘democratic minimalism’ as a new approach to democracy promotion. Instead of viewing democracy as a tool to usher in liberalism, economic development, and cultural progress, Hamid argues that democracy as an end in of itself should be prioritized over other liberal values. Please join us at the Middle East Institute for an in-person discussion with author Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers, Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the strategy of U.S. democracy promotion abroad, the consequences of the democratic push in the early twenty-first century and the future shape of governance systems globally. Gönül Tol, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Turkey Program, will moderate the discussion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Islamism, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

83. In the Middle East, Biden Is on the Razor’s Edge

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
US President Joe Biden is walking on thin ice while he attempts to deal with the most serious crisis in the Middle East since the ill-conceived US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Biden has orientated his administration’s action along three tracks: supporting Israel; protecting as many Palestinian civilians as possible while also resuscitating the defunct Middle East peace process; and preventing the conflict from extending to the wider region.[1] The problem is, reconciling these three priorities may be impossible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civilians, Hamas, Protection, and October 7
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

84. Saudi Arabia’s Balancing Game: The Palestinian Cause and Regional Leadership

Author:
Giulia Daga and Luigi Simonelli
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the hours following Hamas’s violent attack on Israel of 7 October, the Saudi authorities called for “an immediate de-escalation”, while noting that they had previously warned against the outcomes of “the continued occupation and depriving Palestinians of their legitimate rights and the repeated systematic provocations against their sanctities”.[1] In a more recent declaration, the Saudi Foreign Minister has reiterated the country’s “categorical rejection of calls for the forced displacement of the Palestinian people from Gaza, and its condemnation of the continued targeting of defenceless civilians there”.[2] Reportedly, the heavy retaliation measures adopted by Israel, whose bombing campaign against Gaza has been one of the most intense of this century,[3] also including the apparent use of white phosphorus,[4] resulted in the halt of the normalisation process between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which should have followed suit on the 2020 Abraham Accords. Only a few weeks before, on 20 September, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had announced on US television that “every day, we get closer” to an agreement with Israel.[5] A few days later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reiterated the same optimism in front of the United Nations General Assembly general debate, insisting that the Palestinians should not be given “a veto over new peace treaties with Arab states”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Regional Power, and October 7
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

85. Critical Crossroads: Tunisia’s Choice between a Comprehensive EU Partnership and Economic Collapse

Author:
Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
ince the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Tunisian authorities reached in October 2022 a staff-level agreement to support Tunisia’s economic policies, Tunisian President Kais Saied has been standing at the Rubicon. Lacking a vision to revive the Tunisian economy, President Saied has opted for a strategy of diversion and scapegoating. By blowing on the embers of xenophobia among his supporters and more recently by stoking the flames in the Middle East, he continues to deflect attention to conceal his economic short-sightedness and claims autonomy from foreign – mainly European – aid, in the name of sovereignty. This posture has now trapped him in his own rhetoric at a time when the Tunisian economy struggles without signs of recovery or resilience in a challenging regional and global landscape. Time is ticking, the situation remains grim, and the country may miss another opportunity to resume economic growth.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, European Union, Partnerships, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Italy, and Tunisia

86. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf

Author:
Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

87. Shifting Paradigms for Israel-Palestine: Why the EU Must Answer the Wake-Up Call Now

Author:
Akram Ezzamouri and Miriam Zenobio
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Three months ago, the most far-right government in the history of Israel was sworn in by the Knesset under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Kahanist leader of Jewish Power and former convict for racist incitement, has been appointed the head of the newly created Ministry of National Security.[1] Additionally, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the settler-based Religious Zionism party, has been given major control over the administration of the occupied West Bank as the head of the Finance Ministry.[2] The new government has spurred a nationwide mobilisation in Israel, as many criticise the proposed judicial reform aimed at curtailing the Supreme Court’s power to exercise judicial review of legislation, giving the government control over judicial appointments and granting the Knesset the power to override the Court’s rulings. After weeks of protests – mainly attended by secular liberal Jewish Israelis[3] – the reform has been put on hold as part of a coalition agreement which includes the establishment of a National Guard led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and tasked with handling “Arab unrest”, thus anticipating even more state-sanctioned violence on Palestinians.[4] In fact, the number of Palestinians killed in 2023 is already set to surpass last year’s data, with at least 95 deaths since January.[5] This record in violence has been characterised by near-daily raids carried out by the Israeli military across the occupied West Bank, particularly in Jenin, Nablus and Jericho, aiming at curbing the resurgence of Palestinian armed resistance to the occupation.[6] In the same time span, at least 16 Israelis have been killed.[7]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, European Union, and Occupation
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

88. Starr Forum: Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the US-Iran Conflict

Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Why does the rift between the US and Iran persist? A new book by CIS scholars sheds new light on this longstanding conflict.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

89. The Russian-Iran Partnership in a Multipolar World

Author:
Clément Therme
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The strengthening of the partnership between Russia and Iran depends on overlapping security interests; bilaterally, regionally and on the world stage. Tehran has pursued a regional policy program that is largely in line with Russia’s interests, whether these relate to Syria (from 2011), the Caucasus, Central Asia, or Afghanistan (since 1991). This security dimension was already one of the foundations of the bilateral relationship in the post-Cold War-period. It has now appeared in regional dealings between Tehran and Moscow. In addition, the decline of US international predominance, which has been apparent since the 2000s, has allowed Russia and Iran to develop a shared ideological discourse in opposition to “Western values”. Beyond this shared ideological basis, Tehran has developed a true “Realpolitik” whereby it relies on Russian foreign policy to relieve US pressure on Iran that is aimed at regime change or, at the very least, a change in the behavior of the Islamic Republic. In other words, in seeking to preserve intact the main ideological tenets of its regime, Tehran has added a new dimension to its relationship with Moscow. Since 1991, this relationship has become a matter of survival for a regime that faces both popular opposition at home and external pressure from Washington: pressure that increased during the Trump administration of 2017-2021.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, and Middle East

90. THE DAY AFTER: Anticipating trouble in the event of a US withdrawal from Syria

Author:
Jomana Qaddour
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With approximately nine hundred troops in northeastern and southeastern Syria, the United States ostensibly aims to prevent the reemergence of the Islamic State group (IS). The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, initiated by the Trump administration and completed by the Biden administration, was followed by the rapid collapse of the pro-Western government of Afghanistan and its replacement by the Taliban. This has led to questions about what will happen if and when US forces withdraw from northeastern Syria. A new issue brief by Atlantic Council’s Senior Fellow Jomana Qaddour examines the social, political, and economic implications and the challenges to US presence in Syria. While the US military presence remains limited in number, this report also underscores how aggregate US influence is much more potent than a force number of nine hundred suggests. US troop presence has enhanced counterterrorism operations, obstructed IS and Iranian smuggling routes, and facilitated humanitarian aid and economic benefits to a population in Syria that would be languishing under even more dire conditions. It can be argued that it has also limited local violence and halted a resurgence of public IS activities. According to the most recent Syria policy review, US presence is limited to the goal of counterterrorism operations, which implies that it is a conditions-based, not calendar-based deployment. Those conditions should include local Syrian forces that can reasonably deny IS a safe haven from which to plot terrorist attacks against the United States and its allies. It is well known that the Assad regime is not likely to provide the necessary capability to assure the United States and its allies that it can prevent IS’s return. In reality, there is little room to positively read the reassertion of Syrian government control over northeastern Syria; and withdrawal from Syria would be a serious gamble for US national security concerns in Syria and the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Islamic State, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

91. Saudi Arabia’s Engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:
Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
During the last few decades Saudi Arabia had exercised a role of a regional coordinator between various Middle Eastern states and between them and the USA. Twice in the past it had put on the table a peace initiative that was aimed at finding an acceptable solution for Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and both times these initiatives didn’t take off for various reasons. The reality of the Arab spring and Iran domination, as well as the rise of the crown-prince Muhammad Bin-Salman and Abraham accords had radically altered the regional dynamic, and during the last few years Saudi Arabia moved closer to Israel, especially since it became more preoccupied with Iranian threat and domestic reforms. How can Saudi Arabia facilitate peace or contribute for peace-making between Israel and Palestinians, openly or behind the scenes, and what needs to happen first to allow this scenario?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

92. Palestinian Expectations from The Biden Administration

Author:
Rawan AbuJulia
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The United States’ (US) foreign policy trend of intervention in the Middle East has long been accepted as a truism in international relations and politics. For decades, the US has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to peace in the Middle East and has made commendable efforts to mediate the Israel-Palestine conflict. While Washington-Palestinian relations experienced tension during Trump presidency, the victory of Biden left the Palestinians upbeat. Today, one year into Biden’s tenure, the Palestinians continue to hold mixed expectations of the Biden administration’s ability to advance the peace process. This paper attempts, in particular, to analyze the Palestinians’ expectations of the of the Biden Administration, as articulated by high officials and leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): a legitimate authority representing the Palestinian people recognized by Israel in 1993.[1] An approach that aims to understand Palestinian expectations can yield major benefits: it can contribute to making progress toward better conflict resolution, help advance the peace process, and likely revive the two-state solution. In fact, ignoring Palestinian expectations might lead to misunderstanding, miscommunication and could perhaps interrupt or even thwart the peace process entirely. To identify these expectations, this paper relies on Palestinian and international news sources, along with open governmental data published by the US government and the Palestinian Authority. This paper is divided into four sections. The first section presents the efforts that different US administrations made to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The second section summarizes President Trump’s policy towards the Palestinians, highlighting actions that provoked strong condemnation by the Palestinians. The third section presents President Biden’s policy toward the Palestinians in the first year of his administration, emphasizing the main differences between Biden and Trump’s decisions. The fourth and final part presents the overarching Palestinian expectations from the Biden administration.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Media, News Analysis, Peace, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

93. Ontological Insecurity, Anxiety, and Hubris: An Affective Account of Turkey-KRG Relations

Author:
Özlem Kayhan Pusane and Asli Ilgit
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Given Iraqi Kurds’ special place in Turkey’s ‘biographical narrative’, Turkey-Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) relations are not simply strategic or economic but also highly affectively charged. These relations involve emotional encounters filled with anxiety, pride, anger, and disappointment that generate concerns for not only Turkey’s physical security but also its ontological security. This paper traces the emotional context of Turkey- KRG relationship. It suggests that a combination of Turkey’s deep-rooted ‘anxiety’ and ‘hubris’ toward the Iraqi Kurds prevented the emergence of a close partnership between these two actors and fostered merely a ‘fragile rapprochement’ since 2008.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Identity
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Kurdistan

94. The Security Ghost of the January 25th Revolution in al-Sisi Regime’s Policy toward Gaza

Author:
Shaimaa Magued
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This study argues that al-Sisi regime has been haunted by the January 25 uprisings as a potential recurrent threat to the state survival during the formulation of national and foreign politics. In the aim of boosting its international legitimacy before Western allies, especially the US, the regime has capitalized on political instabilities in Gaza as a means to ensure its security grip on power without incurring foreign allies’ critics for human rights violations. How did al-Sisi regime mobilize Gaza as a means for bolstering its international credibility before Western bailers and shunning off the January 25 security ghost? In answering this question, this study refers to haunted politics in foreign policy-making as an informative perspective about the impact of traumatic events on ruling regimes’ interpretation of incidents, convocation of memories, recreation of meanings, and subjugation of citizens. Unlike Mubarak’s limited support for the Palestinian cause and Morsi’s exclusive ties with Hamas, al-Sisi adopted a balanced approach toward Gaza in the aim of counterbalancing the US reservations over the regime’s human rights violations since 2013.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Revolution, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

95. Israeli Apartheid and the West’s Dwindling Moral Credibility

Author:
Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Amidst spiralling tensions on the European continent, East-West animosities have returned to dominate daily news cycles. Predictably, this has revived rhetoric on competing political systems and norms, giving rise to a flurry of reporting contrasting Western democracy’s support for the “rules-based international order” vs an informal “alliance of autocracies” led by Russia and China which embrace military might or economic and political blackmail in “a bid to make the world safe for dictatorship”, as recently opinionated the Washington Post.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, International Law, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, and Mediterranean

96. All eyes on Ankara: A scenario exercise focused on the 2023 elections

Author:
Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over the years, foreign policy has become a source of tension in the European Union’s relationship with Turkey. Although the EU has repeatedly disapproved of Ankara’s (military) interventions in Syria, Libya and Iraq as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the South Caucasus, it has so far not been able to counterbalance Ankara’s actions. In that light, Turkey’s 2023 elections serve as a crucial moment. Seen through the lens of two theoretical scenarios – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance win the elections, versus Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections – this policy brief provides an insight into the instruments the EU has at its disposal to influence and/or respond to Ankara’s potential future foreign policy. It shows that while neither scenario will be hassle-free, the EU has most room to manoeuvre and can make best use of its instruments, ranging from diplomatic engagement to military cooperation, in a situation where Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections in 2023.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

97. The Saudi-Emirati axis and the preservation of regional order

Author:
Gertjan Hoetjes
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Arab uprisings of 2011 spurred the emergence of a Saudi-Emirati axis that sought to mitigate and – where possible – eliminate challenges posed by what these countries perceive as the so-called ‘triple threat’ to the regional order of the Middle East and North Africa: Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and violent extremist groups. Using a variety of foreign policy instruments - including military intervention and strategic outreach, funding allies and proxies as well as supporting religious networks and media outlets – the axis substantially shaped or influenced the domestic and regional events that occurred in the wake of the Arab uprisings. Broadly speaking, the Saudis and Emiratis have been successful in maintaining a monarchical/authoritarian pole in the region’s political order in their quest for domination. They have succeeded in doing so mainly through the use of soft power (finance, religious influence and media framing) in relation to weaker ‘client’ states in the region such as Bahrain, Jordan and Morocco. Their military interventions have generally not achieved their intended objectives and Saudi as well as Emirati shortcomings have been on full display in Yemen, Libya and Syria. While both countries were unable to prevent the emergence of a more multipolar regional order that includes Turkey and Iran, they have effectively helped smother popular calls for political renewal. Growing regional geopolitical competition has, however, not gone hand in hand with growing domestic turmoil. The vast financial reserves, increasing hard power and substantial reservoirs of soft power of both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates ensures that they will continue to act as defenders of the monarchical status quo of the Gulf region and its web of client states in the foreseeable future, even as competition between both partners increases at the same time.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

98. President Biden's Visit to the Middle East: Recommendations for Israel

Author:
Tamir Hayman and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
President Biden’s forthcoming trip to Israel, intended to emphasize the US commitment to Israel’s security, brings with it a golden opportunity for Jerusalem on issues such as Iran, the campaign between wars, and Saudi Arabia – also on the Biden itinerary, where the President will attempt to achieve immediate economic gains
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

99. Macron Put Down, France in Crisis: Implications for Israel

Author:
Remi Daniel
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
As a result of the recent elections in France, President Macron no longer enjoys a majority in parliament, and it remains unclear how he will be able to continue to lead his country. This unusual situation points to a severe political crisis that will require the various actors to adopt or devise new political methods. Beyond the internal significance for France, what are the implications for Israel?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Leadership, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France

100. US Relations with Arab Gulf States: A Passing Crisis?

Author:
Yoel Guzansky and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
After US–Saudi relations deteriorated when Biden entered the White House, relations between the two countries have recently improved, with reports of a possible visit by the US president to Riyadh. What are the reasons for the rapprochement trend, and how can it affect Israel?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations