Political Geography: Middle East / Topic: Conflict Resolution

1. Is There a Way Forward for Political Resolution in Yemen?

Author:: Fatima Abo Alasrar and Ibrahim Jalal
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Director of MEI's Arabian Peninsula Program Gerald Feierstein speaks to MEI Non-Resident Scholars Fatima Abo Alasrar & Ibrahim Jalal on a host of current events in Yemen. What have been the takeaways from U.S. Special Envoy Timothy Lenderking's recent visit to the country - and what are the current trends in the Saudi-Houthi dialogue?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Politics, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

2. A new conflict management strategy for Syria: Creating a Safe, Calm and Neutral Environment

Author:: Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The search for peace in Syria faces a deep crisis. The battlefield has reached a stalemate, the Constitutional Committee never emerged from its cul-de-sac, and the UN’s ‘step-for-step’ approach suffers from flawed conceptual underpinnings as well as a lukewarm reception. Meanwhile, Syria remains divided into three areas that risk drifting further apart amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions. This reality on the ground should serve as a marker for recalibrating Western policy on Syria beyond the current focus on sanctions, accountability, and humanitarian aid. Western policy makers – mostly those from the US, European Union and Turkey – must base a much-needed new conflict management strategy on three ‘ground truths’: 1) the conflict is largely frozen and Syria is likely to remain divided into competing areas of control that are supported, or overseen, by external powers for the foreseeable future; 2) questions of national legitimacy and power sharing are not currently solvable and must be temporarily put on the back burner; c) diplomatic efforts to stabilise Syria and prevent partition are likely to be more effective when they focus on restoring practical connectivity between the different areas of control in terms of flows of people, goods and trade/aid/investment, as well as education. Such a strategy can take shape by operationalising the UN-sanctioned concept of a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE) via a clear set of principles for engagement, a detailed stakeholder/interest mapping of the various conflict parties, and a focus on pragmatic measures to improve daily conditions. The objective of such a strategy is to enable a durable return to relatively normal life for Syrians still living in the country, and to create linkages between the country’s war-torn parts that can open windows of opportunity in the longer term for a political process reflecting the intention of UNSCR 2254.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Peace, and Conflict Management
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3. Yemen After Eight Years of Civil War

Author:: Gerald Feierstein, Fatima Abo Alasrar, and Ibrahim Jalal
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Now in the fifth month of a ceasefire, what are the prospects for a negotiated end to the Yemeni Civil War, and the beginning of a sustained peace? MEI Distinguished Sr. Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy and Director of the Arabian Peninsula program Gerald Feierstein discusses these questions with two outstanding scholars who have followed and written extensively about Yemen over the years. Fatima Abo Alasrar is a nonresident scholar at MEI and a Senior Analyst for the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies. Ibrahim Jalal is a Yemeni security, conflict, and defense researcher in the UK, an Erasmus Scholar, and a co-founding member of The Security Distillery think tank.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

4. Addressing Needs, Promoting Peace: A Proposal for an International Incentives Package for Israeli-Palestinian Peace

Author:: Lior Lehrs, Moien Odeh, Nimrod Goren, and Huda Abu Arqoub
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: peace processes and have the potential to contribute to the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution. A team of Israeli and Palestinian policy experts developed a joint proposal for an international package of incentives for peace. The proposal defines the central needs of the parties that the incentives package must address, focusing on security, recognition and legitimacy, religious rights, economic prosperity and domestic needs. It examines which international actors can be relevant in addressing those needs and should be part of an international incentives package, elaborating on the potential role of the US, the EU, and the Arab and the Muslim world. The proposal also discusses when and how a package of incentives should be introduced and delivered, and what should be the international mechanism required to promote it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, European Union, Peace, and Incentives
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

5. Greece, Cyprus, and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: For decades, the US operated as the central mediator between Israel and the Palestinians. However, after decades of stalled negotiations, it is likely that future peacemaking efforts will be multilateral, reliant on an orchestra of international actors who can support specific processes that, in concert, could encourage Israelis and Palestinians to reapproach one another. This piece examines the role of Greece and Cyprus, two regional actors whose strategic relationship with Israel has strengthened over the last decade, could help advance peace. Though secondary players in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there are concrete ways that both states – if invited by the central parties – could contribute to a more conducive environment for cooperation and dialogue.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Affairs, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, and Cyprus

6. Morocco and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: Einat Levi, Roee Kibrik, and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: By dint of its position in the Arab and Muslim arena, Morocco is strongly committed to the Palestinian issue and the safeguarding of Jerusalem’s Muslim holy sites. Throughout its history, Morocco has served at times as a mediator between Israel and the Arab world and mobilized to help Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking within the framework of the Oslo process. Morocco has adopted a largely neutral foreign policy as a state seeking stability in the Middle East and North Africa and willing to help mediate regional conflicts. These efforts are notable in both the Palestinian arena and in the broader Middle Eastern and North African one. Israel takes a positive view of ties with Morocco, backed by the support of the large Moroccan Jewish diaspora living in Israel. Palestinian views of Morocco’s policy are mixed. Along with a positive perception based on recognition of Morocco’s commitment to the Palestinian issue, measured criticism is also being heard over its decision to advance normalization with Israel. Attitudes toward the normalization process are complex, including both criticism and support for the move. Morocco cannot set in motion and orchestrate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but it can help by providing conciliation and mediation and broad legitimacy for a consensual arrangement on Jerusalem’s holy sites.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Negotiation, Peace, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Morocco

7. Seeing in the Dark: Real-Time Monitoring in Humanitarian Crises

Author:: Daniel Maxwell, Erin Lentz, Kamau Wanjohi, Daniel Molla, Matthew Day, Peter Hailey, Christopher Newton, and Anna Colom
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Humanitarian information systems typically provide analysis to predict crisis, assess needs, direct program resources, and assess short- to medium-term effects of programs. But much of this information is “chunky”—a single estimate of “needs,” for example, can be expected to direct resources and programming for up to a full year (IASC 2020). A single early warning scenario might be expected to provide information about potential hazards and the exposure of population to the ill-effects of that hazard for three to four months. And almost by definition, early warning analyses are grounded in known and likely hazards, “population in need” (PIN) figures are based on the impacts of known shocks, and program resources are (or should be) allocated on the basis of known and projected PIN figures. There have long been questions about the timeliness of humanitarian information and especially about the extent to which information initiates appropriate and timely actions (Buchanan-Smith and Davies 1995; Bailey 2012; Lentz et al. 2020). And there have always been concerns that circumstances can change in shorter time periods than standard humanitarian analysis procedures can pick up, so interest in real-time monitoring (RTM) as a component of humanitarian information systems has increased for at least the past decade or so (FSNAU 2015).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Food Security, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Nutrition
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Somalia, Malawi, South Sudan, and Africa

8. Focussing European Cooperation with the Middle East and North Africa on Social Contracts

Author:: Mark Furness and Markus Loewe
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: 2021 is proving to be a key year for cooperation between Europe and its neighbours in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. As the European Union (EU) launches its new multiannual budget, the COVID-19 pandemic has demanded a rethink of the political, economic and social priorities that the EU and its member states should pursue with MENA countries. Europe’s potential for positive influence on state–society relations in MENA countries has yet to be realised. The latest European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) South Communication, published in February 2021, promises a “new agenda” for cooperation with MENA countries. It does not, however, address conflicts between its own objectives, especially between liberal–democratic political and economic reforms, accountable government and respect for human rights on the one hand, and restrictive trade practices, migration management and security cooperation on the other. Furthermore, there is little bilateral policy coordination among EU member states. Focussing cooperation on social contracts would help overcome such conflicts, which are inherent in cooperation targeting short- to medium-term goals, such as migration management, resilience and private investment. In authoritarian contexts, these measures tend to strengthen the state at the expense of society, and thereby increase prospects for conflict, rather than the stability they promise. The social contract perspective is long-term. Social contracts rely on the state’s delivery of the “3 Ps”: protection (of citizens), provision (of economic and social services) and participation (in decision-making). The social contract provides an analytical tool and a set of organising principles for joint EU and member state priorities and activities. The social contract lens shows how the 3 Ps work together as a framework for social cohesion, peaceful relations and political stability. In practical terms, its use would help improve the effectiveness, coherence and coordination of EU and member state cooperation with MENA countries. Some EU member states prefer to focus on trade and economic cooperation, some on political reform and human rights, and others on migration management. If all take a more long-term perspective, they will realise that sustainable social contracts in MENA countries are good for all of their aims. All European actions should support reforms in MENA countries that aim to make social contracts more acceptable to the contracting parties – governments and social groups. Ideally, such reforms result from negotiations of social contracts between parties on equal terms. In practice, how¬ever, the negotiation power of social groups is often limited – one reason why Europe should ensure that its programmes strengthen societies at least as much as governments. This paper discusses four key cooperation areas which are potential drivers of change for social contracts: • Conflict resolution, peacebuilding and reconstruction; • Post-COVID-19 recovery: health and social protection; • Participation at local, regional and national levels; and • Mutually beneficial migration and mobility. The EU and its member states, by working together on the 3 Ps in these four areas, can influence positive change in the MENA region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Migration, Regional Cooperation, European Union, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

9. Wanted: A Peacemaker Who Can Deliver – The Yemen Review, May 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Governance, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10. Eastern Yemen’s Tribal Model for Containing Conflict

Author:: Ahmed Nagi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The tribes of Mahra, a part of eastern Yemen that borders Oman, adhere to a code of conduct that has helped the area’s inhabitants mediate disputes and contain conflict at key points in the region’s history. This has ensured a degree of stability for Mahra even in times of war. Today, as the war in Yemen continues, the region is the site of a power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Oman. The Mahri code of conduct has enabled the region to escape the worst excesses of the war and to limit Saudi influence there. Though often overlooked, the Mahri approach could offer lessons in defusing tensions between the warring parties elsewhere in conflict-ridden Yemen.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Tribes
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

11. Recommendations for Israel’s New Foreign Minister: Initial Policy Messages

Author:: Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Roee Kibrik, Lior Lehrs, Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, and Ksenia Svetlova
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: srael’s new foreign minister should lead a process of fixing Israel’s foreign policy. This paper presents recommendations for messages he can convey and actions he can take to improve Israel’s regional relations with Arab states, the Palestinians and Europe. It is based on deliberations by a Mitvim Institute task team.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Jordan

12. The Trump-Iran Showdown: A Conflict Resolution Perspective

Author:: Richard E. Rubenstein and Oakley Thomas Hill
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Why would Trump run the risk of a war by assassinating Iran’s most effective general? Conventional Realist explanations do not answer the question adequately. The imperial strategy and the American Empire’s decline points toward a more convincing (and alarming) explanation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

13. A Plan to End the War in Syria: Competing with Russia in the Levant

Author:: Aaron Stein
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The United States has an interest in allowing the Russian Federation to “win” an outright victory in Syria, so long as it secures from Moscow an agreement that is favorable to the Syrian Kurds, builds in negative consequences for an external actor targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces, and establishes a “deconflict plus”-type mechanism to continue to target Islamic State- and Al Qaeda-linked individuals in Syria. A forward-looking policy that the incoming Biden administration could consider is to deprioritize the nascent threat of the Islamic State as a key factor in driving U.S. national security strategy, and instead focus more intently on long-term competition with great powers. This approach would seek to shape how Moscow spends finite defense dollars—at a time of expected global defense cuts stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic—in ways that are advantageous to the United States. It also would seek to limit the cost of the U.S. presence in Syria—to include secondary and opportunity costs not accounted for in a basic cost breakdown of the U.S. war against the Islamic State. This approach is not without risk, particularly from a nascent Islamic State insurgency in Russian-controlled territory, but seeks to match U.S. strategic priorities with action and to impose upon a long-term competitor the costs of victory for its intervention in Syria.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, Syrian War, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

14. A Proposal for a Stability Mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Countries

Author:: Rabah Arezki and Aitor Erce
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—face the dual shock of a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus and a persistent collapse in oil prices. Because of the dual shock, the growth downgrade for the GCC as a whole is 7.5 percentage points in 2020 (World Bank, 2020). This can be considered as the cost of the dual shock—Arezki and others, 2020. But there is wide uncertainty about the estimate, which could be even higher. GCC countries must act collectively and boldly today to reduce the risk of an economic depression. A delayed and tenuous response may force authorities to spend even more in the future to, among other things, rescue cash-strapped members, as non-performing loans and bankruptcies become widespread (Ari et al., 2020). A powerful joint mechanism to cushion the blow, and ensure solidarity and stability of the GCC is warranted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Political stability, Conflict, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:: Middle East

15. Challenges and opportunities for conflict resolution with Salafi jihadi armed groups

Author:: Veronique Dudouet and Karin Göldner-Ebenthal
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: This policy brief highlights recommendations for evidence-based policy making on pathways to conflict de-escalation with Salafi jihadi armed groups. It proposes a more nuanced public discussion of the topic. This brief draws mainly on the research report “Dialogue with Salafi jihadi armed groups: Challenges and opportunities for conflict de-escalation” which concludes a two-year research project based on case studies in Somalia, Syria and Mali.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Syria, Somalia, and Mali

16. Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya

Author:: Ben Fishman and Charles Thépaut
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue. On January 19, international leaders will convene in Berlin to discuss a way out of the nine-month civil war between the so-called “Libyan National Army” led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The Germans led several months of preparatory efforts at the request of UN envoy Ghassan Salame, but had been reluctant to choose a specific date until they were assured that the event stood a reasonable chance of producing practical steps to improve the situation on the ground and jumpstart the UN’s stalled negotiation efforts between the LNA and GNA. Chancellor Angela Merkel finally took that step after several key developments unfolded earlier this month, including a January 8 ceasefire proposal by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Putin’s subsequent failed attempt to have each side sign a more permanent ceasefire agreement in Moscow on January 13 (the GNA signed but Haftar balked, though most of the fighting has paused for the moment). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been averse to engage on Libya during his tenure, but he is expected to attend the Berlin conference alongside National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. Accordingly, the event gives the United States a chance to play a much-needed role on several fronts: namely, pressuring the foreign actors who have perpetuated the war and violated the arms embargo; working with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia to codify a ceasefire at the UN Security Council; and backing Salame’s efforts to reinvigorate the Libyan national dialogue, which Haftar preempted by attacking Tripoli last April despite European support to Salame. Since 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a legitimate transitional government despite three national elections and the creation of at least four legislative bodies. Challenges to the 2014 election results eventually led to rival governments in the east and west, and the division solidified when Haftar started the first civil war with support from his allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. That war halted in 2015, but several years’ worth of domestic and international efforts failed to bring Sarraj and Haftar to an enduring resolution.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Conference
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Germany, North Africa, United Arab Emirates, Berlin, and United States of America

17. Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role. The Kremlin is now openly treating Libya as another focal point of its Middle East activities. After years of U.S. neglect, the country has turned into a proxy war playground, and President Vladimir Putin is vying to become the chief power broker. Earlier this month, he tried (but failed) to get Khalifa Haftar to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow with Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Putin also participated in the January 19 Berlin conference aimed at getting the parties back on the path toward a political solution. And though the prospects for such a deal remain uncertain, Moscow’s involvement in Libya will continue either way.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Geopolitics, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

18. What Is the Endgame in Syria?

Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: World Politics Review
Abstract:: What does victory on President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal terms look like? How has the rise and fall of the Islamic State changed Syria’s political map? How will U.S. President Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northeastern Syria and the subsequent Turkish invasion of the area change the situation?And what about reconstruction, let alone reconciliation? This WPR report provides a comprehensive look at those questions and several others that will determine what’s to come in Syria, with impacts far beyond the Middle East.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Proxy War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

19. Egyptian Mediation in Gaza is a Strategic Asset by its Own Right

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is in Israel’s interest to solidify the Egyptian role in Gaza, in the context of “conflict management” as a governing policy concept. Egyptian participation in the efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza serves as an important component in the vital Egypt-Israel relationship. It also helps erode Hamas’ pretensions of Jihad.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Peace, Hamas, Strategic Stability, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

20. The Israel-Jordan Treaty at 25

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is a crucial accord, but needs attention and maintenance.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Jordan

21. Unintended Consequences of State-building Projects in Contested States: The EU in Palestine

Author:: Dimitris Bouris
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The existing literature on state-building has focused mainly on post-conflict cases and ‘conventional’ examples of statehood, without taking into consideration the particularities of states that remain internally and/or externally contested. The EU’s engagement in Palestinian state-building through the deployment of EUPOL COPPS and EUBAM Rafah has generated various types of unintended consequences: anticipated and unanticipated, positive and negative, desirable and undesirable, some of which fulfill and some of which frustrate the initial intention. These have important reverberations for the EU’s conflict resolution strategies in Israel and Palestine, the most important being the strengthening of power imbalances and the enforcement of the status quo.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, State, State Building, and Police
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Palestine, and European Union

22. Divided and Divisive: Europeans, Israel and Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:: Muriel Asseburg, Nimrod Goren, Nicolai von Ondarza, Eyal Ronen, and Muriel Asseburg
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Over the last 40 years, since the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty (that alluded to but did not solve the Palestinian question) and the European Community’s 1980 Venice Declaration, Europe has been seeking ways to help advance Israeli-Palestinian peace. The task was not an easy one, mostly due to United States of America (US) dominance of peace negotiations and negative Israeli attitudes towards Europe as a mediator. Thus, while Europeans were key in shaping international language on the conflict, they have remained in the back seat when it comes to shaping dynamics on the ground. Since the collapse in 2014 of the John Kerry initiative to advance the peace process, the task has become even more difficult for the Europeans. Realities on the ground, such as a right-wing government in Israel lacking interest in advancing a peace process, expanded settlement construction, as well as the internal Palestinian split and governance deficiencies in the Palestinian Authority, make the two-state solution ever more difficult to achieve. In addition, Israel’s leadership has worked to weaken and divide the EU in order to limit its role on the issue. In this endeavor, it has profited from different interests and priorities among EU Member States as reflected in discussions and decision-making processes regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These trends have increasingly intensified in recent years, and it is the goal of this publication to analyze them, assess their impact on European capacities and policies, and devise recommendations to tackle and perhaps even reverse them. The publication includes three analytical chapters focusing on internal European dynamics, on Israel’s foreign policy towards the EU, and on EU policy-making regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict/peace process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

23. The Zombie Returns: Middle East Peace Plan Would Create Palestinian Bantustan

Author:: Edward Marks
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The Trump Administration Middle East Plan appears to call for a Palestinian “Bantustan” (maybe two with Gaza) and legally enforced separation of communities based on ethnic grounds. It is difficult to believe that this resurrection from the discredited past could be acceptable to anyone but its authors, who appear to be completely oblivious to the history of South Africa. That includes Netanyahu, who has obviously been fully engaged in the plan’s development. However the plan will be unacceptable to everyone else, including Saudi Arabia and other Arab governments who have been flirting with Israel and the US in an informal anti-Iranian alliance. The plan would certainly exacerbate – if that is possible – the relationship between Israel and the Palestinians. The Kushner Plan would be like throwing oil on a fire; it will end badly for everyone concerned.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Apartheid, Development, Diplomacy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, United States of America, West Bank, and Golan Heights

24. Famine Early Warning and Information Systems in Conflict Settings: Challenges for Humanitarian Metrics and Response

Author:: Daniel Maxwell
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Attention to the growing number of people caught in crises characterized by extreme and often protracted levels of food insecurity, malnutrition, and mortality is increasing. The information systems that track these conditions and inform humanitarian decision-making have expanded substantially in the past two decades and in many cases have reached a degree of unprecedented sophistication. These famine early warning systems have become increasingly sophisticated in the past decade, but they still tend to be based on several assumptions that are important to understand. This paper briefly describes existing famine early warning systems and outlines some of the assumptions on which they are based— both in theory and in practice. Then it gives four brief case studies of recent famine or “famine-like” events and pieces together the formal analysis process with an attempt to reconstruct events on the ground from a conflict analysis perspective—highlighting the extent to which the formal famine analysis did or did not deal with conflict analyses and the political kryptonite around the discussion of “intent.” It closes with a summary of gaps in the current system and an assessment of the risks of trying to address those gaps through famine EWS or alternative means.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Kenya, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Ethiopia

25. End U.S. Military Support for the Saudi-Led War in Yemen

Author:: Enea Gjoza and Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The Yemeni Civil War is in its fourth year, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and their allies are not close to a victory over the Houthi rebels.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Military Spending, Military Intervention, and Peace
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa

26. Exiting Afghanistan: Ending America's Longest War

Author:: Benjamin H. Friedman
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The war in Afghanistan—now America’s longest at nearly 18 years—quickly achieved its initial aims: (1) to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and (2) to punish the Taliban government that gave it haven. However, Washington extended the mission to a long and futile effort of building up the Afghan state to defeat the subsequent Taliban insurgency.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

27. Spring 2019 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:: Ruben Safrastyan
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:: Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:: TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST 1. LILIT HARUTYUNYAN PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMPS IN LEBANON: GOVERNANCE AND VIOLENCE .............................................................................. 5 2. LEVON HOVSEPYAN DIMINISHING INSTITUTIONAL AUTONOMY OF TURKISH ARMED FORCES: IS POLITICIZATION AND TRANSFORMATION OF ITS INSTITUTIONAL IDENTITY ON THE WAY? ............................................................................................. 20 3. ARAKS PASHAYAN SAUDI ARABIA ON THE ROAD TO MODERNIZATION: REALITY OR MYTH?. .................................................................................... 34 SMALL STATES BETWEEN GREAT POWERS 4. MAXIMILIAN OHLE, RICHARD J. COOK, ZHAOYING HAN & RYSBEK MAMAZHANOV CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE: WHAT IS BISHKEK’S HEDGING STRATAGEM? ................................................................................ 45 5. BENIAMIN MAILYAN IMPERATIVES OF GEORGIAN DIPLOMACY AND THE COOPERATION OF TBILISI AND BEIJING ................................. 63 CONFLICT RESOLUTION 6. YULONG DAI STRATEGIES ON TERRITORIAL ACQUISITION- A CASE STUDY ON THE PEDRA BRANCA DISPUTE ........................................... 76 4 7. NAREK SUKIASYAN TERRITORIAL AUTONOMY AND SECESSION AS STRATEGIES OF CONFLICT MANAGEMENT: CASE OF NAGORNO KARABAKH .................................................................................... 90 FIELD PROJECT RESULTS 8. BEATA BOEHM THE UN “SOCIAL RECONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME” IN UNPA SECTOR WEST, CROATIA ............................................... 104 BOOK REVIEW MATTHEW CROSSTON CHINA'S ONE BELT, ONE ROAD INITIATIVE AND ARMENIA by MHER SAHAKYAN ................................................................................ 126
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, United Nations, Governance, Armed Forces, Violence, Modernization, and Palestinians
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, Saudi Arabia, Georgia, Lebanon, and Nagorno-Karabakh

28. In Praise of Conflict Management

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Amidst violent events, it is easy to be tempted to seek decisive “solutions” to the Palestinian problem(s) – in both the PA areas and in Gaza – through drastic military action, or through equally dramatic concessions. But given the lessons of recent history, as well as the unpredictable nature of regional events, it makes sense to adhere to “conflict management” and piecemeal arrangements. This is not as a cowardly choice by hapless political and military leaders, but as a rational choice in irrational circumstances; even more so when the Iranian challenge looms larger than ever on Israel’s immediate horizons. Patience has its own merits.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

29. Palestine and the Arab–Israeli Conflict: 100 Years of Regional Relevance and International Failure

Author:: Karim Makdisi
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper asserts that the Arab–Israeli conflict, and in particular the question of Palestine, has been the major issue of regional concern across the Middle East for over a century. It claims that the failure to resolve the question of Palestine will continue to impact on the region’s stability and its geopolitical dynamics and to shape popular opinion while limiting Arab leaders’ options. It first situates the Arab–Israeli conflict as a core regional issue in historical context – which is crucial for understanding where we are today – before critically reviewing the Oslo “peace process” and its failure to deliver a just and sustainable peace within the framework of a “two-state solution”. It suggests that this failure has resulted in the ramping up of lingering regional problems (e.g. southern Lebanon, the Golan Heights, refugees and in Palestine itself) and the rise of new challenges and frameworks (e.g. the Resistance Axis and the BDS movement). It concludes that the time has come for the international community – including the European Union, which has contributed to the failure of the two-state solution – to consider alternative paradigms and actions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Refugees, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

30. The Kurds in a Volatile Middle East

Author:: Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The Kurds challenge the self-perceptions of the nation-states in which they reside: Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq; and they have played a crucial role in combatting Islamic State. This study analyzes the rivalry and interdependence among the four parts of Kurdistan as well as the dynamics of their relations with regional countries and the international community. With the entire region in a state of flux, will the Kurds fulfill their dream for a state or autonomous existence of their own?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Self Determination, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East

31. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

32. The Women in Daesh: Deconstructing Complex Gender Dynamics in Daesh Recruitment Propaganda

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Since its inception, Daesh has been successfully recruiting women across national and ideological lines to assume key positions in advancing the organization’s objectives. According to recent estimates, out of 31,000 fighters within Daesh territories, almost one-fifth, roughly 6,200, are women. Yet, to date, research and policy focus on women’s involvement in Daesh has been scant. Several media accounts that have covered female participation tend to be alarmingly reductionist in their description of the roles women play in Daesh. These reports primarily categorize women as either passive victims, “Jihadi brides,” or subsidiary supporters of male guardians with negligible influence. This approach not only ignores the multiplicity of roles played by women to expand Daesh’s ideological and operational agenda, but also oversimplifies the motivations behind their decisions to join Daesh. Just like their male counterparts, women are complex human beings with conflicting aspirations, ideological leanings, and life struggles that inform the choices they make.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

33. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: During the reporting period, elements of an Astana de-escalation plan were enacted while pro-government forces advanced in Hama and the Eastern Ghouta region of Damascus. Opposition infighting in Eastern Ghouta and Idleb appears to have stopped for the time being. Fighting in and around Daraa city remained high this week, and both opposition and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continued to take territory from ISIS.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Civil War
Political Geography:: Middle East

34. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: During the reporting period, opposition forces advanced once more against ISIS fighters in the southeastern desert of Syria, opposition forces fought with one another once again in the Eastern Ghouta area of rural Damascus, and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continued to advance against ISIS in Tabqa city west of Raqqa. Additionally, pro-government forces advanced against feuding opposition forces in Eastern Damascus, and international and pro-government forces were deployed within YPG-held territory following recent exchanges of fire between Turkey and Kurdish forces.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Middle East

35. Post-Conflict Re-Construction in MENA: Previous Experiences and Stakeholder's Inclusive Involvement in the Future Reconstruction of Libya, Syria and Iraq

Author:: Amaia Goenaga
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and Casa Árabe, with the collaboration of ICEX (Spain Trade and Investment), organised in 2016 an international conference entitled "Post-conflict re-construction in MENA: Previous experiences and stakeholders’ inclusive involvement in the future reconstruction of Libya, Syria and Iraq". The aim was to tackle the different aspects and challenges related to reconstruction in post-conflict countries in the region. Given the dimension and complexity of the subject, the conference was structured in a double meeting, bringing together stakeholders, academics and experts. The first one took place in Barcelona on the 11 April 2016 and the second one on the 19 September 2016 in Madrid. This document gathers and assesses the main conclusions and recommendations reached in both meetings. Thus issues tackled have been grouped into five main lines of discussion, which are divided into epigraphs devoted to some key concrete issues:
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention
Political Geography:: Middle East

36. Normalisation in Ankara-Baghdad Relations: A New Era?

Author:: Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The Iraqi and Turkish leadership have restored direct contact, thus providing an opportunity for dialogue. However, the extent to which this can lead to a sustainable normalisation process and furthermore to a deepening of their relationship is highly questionable. This policy brief argues that the main problem lies with the fact that a win-win scenario of overlapping or complementary interests does not seem to be driving the leaderships’ actions. Instead, it is ad hoc developments external to their bilateral relationship that have a positive effect for the time being, such as the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey, and subsequently a concerted attempt between Russia, Turkey and Iran to stabilise the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

37. How Can the International Community Promote Libya's Stability and Security?

Author:: Wafa Bughaighis, Ben Fishman, Nigel Lea, Jason Pack, and Jonathan Winer
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Libya occupies a sensitive position for the security of Arab and European neighbors, including many U.S. allies, and in managing the region’s destabilizing migration flows. The country’s fractious politics and armed insurgencies are depriving Libyans of security, basic services, and economic stability, and leave the country vulnerable to jihadi terrorism. The United Nations has proposed a road map for rethinking the embattled government of national accord and binding Libya’s rival parliaments and militia commander Khalifa Haftar into negotiation of a consensus path forward. The Middle East Institute (MEI) presented a two-panel symposium to examine opportunities for the United States and international community to advance Libya's security and mobilize to meet the humanitarian challenges. This is the first of the two panels.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Migration, United Nations, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

38. "From Extremism to Inclusion": Aziz Abu Sarah, Nat Geo Explorer, Co-Founder of Mejdi Tours

Author:: Aziz Abu Sarah
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:: The 4th IPCRI forum for 2016 focused on: "From Extremism to Inclusion" How hardliners joined the peace process in Northern Ireland
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Northern Ireland

39. Afghanistan's Uncertain Future: Fragmented Realities and Geopolitical Fault Lines

Author:: Olli Ruohomäki and Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Despite the complexity Afghanistan entails, it is possible to outline the main contours of the fragmented reality and geopolitical fault lines that inform the situation on the ground. It is with this in mind that this Briefing Paper examines the cur- rent state of affairs in Afghanistan with a focus on the highly contentious politics, precarious security situation and the role of the difficult neighbourhood. The paper concludes with reflections regarding the prospects for peace, which do not appear promising.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Taliban, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

40. How to Secure Mosul Lessons from 2008—2014

Author:: Michael Knights and Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: IN EARLY 2017, Iraqi security forces (ISF) are likely to liberate Mosul from Islamic State control. But given the dramatic comebacks staged by the Islamic State and its predecessors in the city in 2004, 2007, and 2014, one can justifiably ask what will stop IS or a similar movement from lying low, regenerating, and wiping away the costly gains of the current war. This paper aims to fill an important gap in the literature on Mosul, the capital of Ninawa province, by looking closely at the underexplored issue of security arrangements for the city after its liberation, in particular how security forces should be structured and controlled to prevent an IS recurrence. Though “big picture” political deals over Mosul’s future may ultimately be decisive, the first priority of the Iraqi-international coalition is to secure Mosul. As John Paul Vann, a U.S. military advisor in Vietnam, noted decades ago: “Security may be ten percent of the problem, or it may be ninety percent, but whichever it is, it’s the first ten percent or the first ninety percent. Without security, nothing else we do will last.”
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, International Security, Reconstruction, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

41. The Libyan Political Agreement: Time for a Reset

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The December 2015 Libyan Political Agreement, signed in Skhirat, Morocco, has re- configured more than contributed to resolving internal strife. A year ago, the conflict was between rival parliaments and their associated governments; today it is mainly between accord supporters and opponents, each with defectors from the original camps and heavily armed. The accord’s roadmap, the idea that a caretaker government accommodating the two parliaments and their allies could establish a new political order and reintegrate militias, can no longer be implemented without change. New negotiations involving especially key security actors not at Skhirat are needed to give a unity government more balanced underpinning.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Peacekeeping, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Libya

42. ORIGINAL ENGLISH TRANSLATION OF THE 2015 GADI EISENKOT IDF STRATEGY

Author:: Ahmad Samih Khalidi
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:: ONE OF THE MANY REASONS for the humbling of the mighty Israel Defense Forces (IDF) during the 2006 Lebanon War was an Israeli combat doctrine named Systemic Operational Design, better known by its perhaps aptly abbreviated acronym SOD.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East

43. The Future of the Middle East

Author:: Dlawer Ala’Aldeen
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The Middle East is still in flux and will remain so for some time, it will possibly be another decade before the ultimate power balance is reached. Policy makers of Iraq and the KRI who wish to pursue paths of their own design, must look carefully at the trends in power dynamics and the policies of the global and regional powers before designing their strategies.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

44. Could the Trump Administration Mean a New Beginning for the Kurds?

Author:: Zachary Gallant
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The shift of United States (US) foreign policy from a heavy international focus with traditional alliances over the past century to the anti-globalist administration promised by President-elect Donald Trump will necessarily upset longstanding regional relations in the Middle East and North Africa. This Policy Paper discusses some of the Trump administration’s most likely foreign policy advisers and their positions on Kurdish self-governance, as well as those of some previous policymakers whose legacies he will be unable to escape.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

45. The Reconstruction of Islamic State-Liberated Areas

Author:: Irene Costantini
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Nearly thirteen years since the beginning of one of the largest programmes for post-conflict reconstruction, Iraq finds itself again in need of international financial assistance, but the conditions are hardly the same. This time the role of the international community should be matched by the Iraqi political leadership taking responsibility for the country and all of its population.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

46. The Day After: Governing the KRI

Author:: Dylan O’Driscoll
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The fight against the Islamic State (IS) has caused a ‘rallying around the flag’ effect amongst Iraqi Kurds. Once IS is defeated key political and economic issues long neglected in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI) will come to the fore. Thus, it is imperative they are addressed now, as failure to make inroads will have dire consequences for the KRI.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Middle East

47. Trump’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Four Key Issues

Author:: Dave van Zoonen
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Donald Trump, the next President of the United States, will soon be confronted with the difficulty of translating campaign rhetoric regarding his foreign policy in the Middle East into policy and positive outcomes. He is thus likely to be forced to make significant concessions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

48. Yet Another Complication in Nineveh: Retaking Tal Afar

Author:: Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Hashd al-Shaabi launched an offensive on Tal Afar on 29 October; the looming recapture of Tal Afar prompted a strong reaction from Turkey, which maintains ties to the Turkmen population there. Tal Afar is thus yet another flashpoint of competing interests between Ankara, Erbil, Baghdad, and Tehran and can possibly further destabilise the situation in Nineveh.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

49. Competing Interests in Shingal: Yazidis Caught Between Millstones

Author:: Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Nearly two years since the north side of Shingal was liberated from the Islamic State, most of the Yazidi population is still displaced. Yazidis are trapped between millstones of the competition of exogenous actors, such as the KDP, the PKK-linked forces, and Baghdad, over the control of the strategically important disputed territory of Shingal.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

50. A Development-Oriented Stabilisation Policy for Mosul

Author:: Irene Costantini
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The Islamic State (IS) has not only surprised everyone with its cruelty but also by proving to be one of the world’s richest terrorist organisations. Now that its economic gains are draining due to military setbacks and financial strains, IS-held territories are increasingly struggling through economic hurdles – the challenge ahead is to link military interventions against IS with concrete economic plans.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

51. The Future of Mosul: Before, During, and After the Liberation

Author:: Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The post-conflict planning following the 2003 invasion of Iraq was weak at best and as a result many elements were at play that led to the marginalisation and political disenfranchisement of the Sunni community. Consequently, radical entities, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), exploited local dynamics to take up a position within society in the Sunni areas of Iraq. It is important that the current fight against IS in Iraq avoids this pattern at all costs; if the liberation is devoid of long-term planning it will likely result in the resurfacing of a number of issues responsible for the rise of IS in Iraq in the first place. Lessons must be learnt from the mistakes of post-Saddam planning and these must not be repeated post-IS. There needs to be a multifaceted approach to the preparation for the liberation of Mosul that goes well beyond the military dimension.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

52. Palestine : de l’Etat introuvable à la nation en déroute. A quoi servent les dirigeants palestiniens ? (Palestine: From an untraceable State to an impossible nation. What purpose do Palestinian leaders serve?)

Author:: Laetitia Bucaille
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Today, the creation of a Palestinian state appears to be a distant possibility: the international community rejected to manage the issue, and the leadership in these territories weakened because of its divisions, revealing their inability to advance. Both the political and the territorial partition between the Gaza strip, governed by the Hamas and the West Bank, under Palestinian authority in line with Fatah, reveal a profound crisis that questions the very contours of Palestinian politics. It also shows that Hamas’ integration in the political game made it impossible to pursue the security subcontacting system. Maintaining the system avoids reconstructing the Palestinian political community, and makes it difficult to develop a strategy that moves towards sovereignty. Since October 2015, the popular and pacific resistance project has been shelved by the return of the violence against Israeli civilians. The Palestinian leadership counts on internationalization of the cause, which has shown mediocre results. Will the replacement of Mahmoud Abbas by his competitors permit to leave the rut?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Politics, Sovereignty, War, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and State
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

53. Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War

Author:: Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: The unemployed are often inculpated in the production of violence during conflict. A simple yet common argument describes these individuals as disaffected and inclined to perpetrate affectively motivated violence. A second holds that they are drawn to violent political organizations for lack of better outside options. Yet, evidence in support of a general positive relationship between unemployment and violence during conflict is not established. Drawing from a large body of psychological research, I argue that a basic but important relationship has been overlooked: Loss of employment, rather than rendering individuals angry, increases feelings of depression, anxiety, helplessness, and belief in the power of others. Members of this segment of society are more likely than most to reject the use of violence. Drawing on previously unreleased data from a major, multi-million dollar survey effort carried out during the Iraq war, I uncover evidence that psychological findings carry to conflict settings: unemployed Iraqis were consistently less optimistic than other citizens; displayed diminished perceptions of efficacy; and were much less likely to support the use of violence against Coalition forces.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Labor Issues, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, and Quantitative
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

54. An Intensified Approach to Combatting the Islamic State

Author:: Michele Flournoy and Richard Fontaine
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: In the 11 months since President Barack Obama committed the United States to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the group has expanded its international reach, metastasized to form offshoots across multiple regions, and increased its perceived momentum. Although U.S. government officials cite a reduction in the overall size of the group’s sanctuary in Iraq and Syria and the killing of thousands of ISIS fighters, the fall of Ramadi and much of Anbar province to the Islamic State served as a wakeup call that current efforts to counter ISIS are not adequate to the task.2 Meanwhile, the threat posed by the terrorist group to Americans at home and abroad appears to be growing as ISIS-inspired individuals conduct attacks targeting Westerners around the globe, including here in the United States.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

55. Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-term Security and Political Goals

Author:: Nathaniel Myers
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Facing serious crises in the Middle East and beyond, Washington is again turning to foreign aid to help advance urgent short-term security and political priorities. This so-called hard aid entails goals and challenges that are distinct from traditional development and humanitarian aid programs, but Washington is relying on existing aid systems and structures to pursue such work in crisis countries like Syria and Yemen. While this ad hoc approach is administratively and politically convenient, it reduces strategic effectiveness and undercuts long-term development efforts. Both legislative and executive action should be taken to redress these failings.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

56. Identity in the Pre-Modern Middle East

Author:: Berkey Jonathan P.
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: We live in an age of identity politics. We define ourselves by one or more objective measures: measures of race, ethnicity, gender, politics, religion, sexual orientation, to name just a few. Those measures then define who we are to others. They determine our place in society, the communities with which we identify, our attitudes towards others and other communities. The politics of identity are fraught, and they interact in ways that both liberate and confine. On the one hand we prize diversity. On the whole, this is a good thing, since it reflects a larger transformation in American life. Like it or not, the fact is that we are becoming, have become, a “multi-cultural society.” No matter what terms we use to define diversity—racial, ethnic, religious, sexual, gender, whatever—we are more diverse now than we have ever been, and we are destined to grow more so. Multi-culturalism is not an option; it is the future. The only question is how, and how well, we are going to deal with it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East

57. Development Challenges and Tools in Conflict Environments

Author:: Todd Diamond
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: For at least a generation, conflict resolution has been predominantly the domain of international development practitioners seeking to use their skills and tools to avert war and reduce the suffering of civilian populations. More recently, the U.S. military added similar exercises to its planning efforts, primarily for the strategic purpose of reducing its own potential future deployments around the world. Working occasionally in parallel and at other times seemingly at cross-purposes, the military, donors and non-governmental organizations have begrudgingly come to accept that in any given crisis each can play a role. The nature and extent of each actor’s role depends on the circumstances and the severity of the situation. As the military concludes the longest war in U.S. history in Afghanistan, and as pressure mounts to intervene in additional conflicts in the Middle East, it is worth examining what role development can play in reducing that pressure, who should be responsible for providing that assistance, and what form it should take. In most cases, whether in a pre-conflict environment, an active conflict, or a post-conflict phase, development agencies and their partners are well placed to provide warnings and respond to civilian crises, though not without coordinating and collaborating in certain instances with their military counterparts...
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Military Affairs, Conflict, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

58. TSG IntelBrief: Foreign Fighters in Syria: A Growing Threat

Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The number of foreign fighters is high, 12,000 and counting, and the spread of countries they come from covers much of the globe. Two recent events involving foreign fighters show the radicalizing influence of the war. With the support to bolster Syria's more secular rebel forces at times inconsistent and tepid, the lack of an alternative has accelerated a natural gravitation towards extremist elements. It will be hard to know which returnees pose a threat, and harder still to deal with them. Given that the number of foreign fighters already exceeds those that went to Afghanistan, government resources will be severely strained to monitor all returnees and will have to rely on the help of local communities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Syria

59. TSG IntelBrief: : Foreign Fighters from North Africa in Syria and Iraq

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: No region has seen more of its people travel to fight in Syria than North Africa; more than 3,000 Tunisians have traveled there as of last April, and more than 1,500 Moroccans This is a repeat of a decade ago when large numbers of North Africans traveled to Iraq to fight there as well, in proportions far above those of neighboring countries A significant number of recent North African fighters have conducted suicide bombings in both Iraq and Syria, highlighting that the deadly ideological message of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and other extremist groups is finding purchase in North Africa The reasons for this export of extremists include incomplete political reforms that have failed to redress serious societal issues, persistent high youth unemployment, and a failure to cope with the apparent high levels of disaffection, despair, and anger that drive people to choose violent extremism.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria

60. TSG IntelBrief:: The Bomb-Proof Finances of the Islamic State

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Attacking the finances of the so-called Islamic State (IS) with limited collateral damage will be orders of magnitude more difficult than attacking its military factions The group has thoroughly embedded itself into local and regional economies in Syria and Iraq, and damaging its finances while not devastating civilian populations will be as difficult as it is necessary IS oil revenues might be the easiest to disrupt but such action comes with significant collateral economic damage, while taxes, tolls, extortion, and food sales generate more income while remaining highly resistant to external forces In the areas under its control, IS has been providing social services as well as delivering levels of fuel, electricity, and food to populations utterly without recourse, meaning the group needs to be replaced and not simply removed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

61. TSG IntelBrief: Turkey Steps In: A Good Thing?

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The Turkish parliament's vote to authorize the deployment of military forces in Syria and Iraq provided a legal and official framework for such action It may appear to be a positive step in degrading and destroying the putative Islamic State (IS), however, the parliament in its vote used the broader term "terrorist organizations," thus the landscape for Turkey, Syria-Iraq, and regional states and interests remains exceptionally complex Though there is nearly universal and implacable opposition to IS among all actors in Syria and Iraq, Turkey's future role-depending on steps taken-could aggravate tensions not only with Arab Gulf states and Kurdish elements in Syria and Iraq, but Iran, Russia, and the Iraqi government Turkey's desire to create a buffer zone on the Syrian side of its common border remains one of the most sensitive issues Amid reports of increased IS pressure on Kobani, Kurdish PKK has insinuated Turkey will be to blame-not IS-for creating conditions for the refugee crisis, and threatens to resume opposition activity in Turkey. The Turkish parliament's vote Thursday to authorize use of its army and military facilities in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) may appear at first look to be a positive step for the broader coalition. The measures-to be determined-are in addition to any financial, diplomatic, humanitarian, and support activities for the anti-IS coalition. However, parliament's vote did not entail Turkey's officially joining the coalition. After the recent deal-details yet to be revealed-to bring home over 40 hostages IS had taken from Turkey's consulate in Mosul, Iraq, in June 2014, pressure increased for Turkey to take military steps in the anti-IS fight. A factor increasing the possibility of military action is Turkish special operations forces' guarding the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a Turkish enclave in Syria reported to be increasingly surrounded by IS. Though there is almost universal animus toward IS in the region, there is also nearly uniform resistance to Turkey's perceived unilateral military involvement in Syria and Iraq, outside the framework of the anti-IS coalition. Turkey's next moves may cause more conflict than benefit in the anti-IS fight. Indeed, the political landscape for Turkey's moves at home and abroad remains extraordinarily complex.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

62. Mediating Transition in Yemen: Achievements and Lessons

Author:: Steven A. Zyck
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Yemen remains the only site of an Arab Spring uprising that has ended in a negotiated agreement and a structured, internationally supported transition process. As Jamal Benomar, the United Nations Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen, stated, “Yemen was definitely heading towards a Syria-type scenario” before international actors, including the United Nations (UN), helped to shepherd a complex transition process, which continues at the time of writing. Benomar, with support from a wide array of stakeholders, helped avert an escalating conflict in Yemen by stepping in to offer the good offices of the UN secretarygeneral without waiting for the UN Security Council or the embattled Yemeni regime to demand UN action. Benomar's interventions— including bringing Yemen's major political parties together amid the uprising—helped ensure that the country did not devolve into civil war when President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down after thirty-three years in power. That is, the UN opened a space for dialogue where none had previously been considered possible.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Treaties and Agreements, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

63. Toward a Lasting Ceasefire in Gaza

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: More than seven weeks after the most devastating war yet waged in Gaza, its underlying causes remain unresolved. Hamas did not achieve an end to Gaza's closure; Israel did not attain the demilitarisation of the Strip or Hamas. The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) remains unrepresentative and its credibility continues to fade. Fatah's popularity has sunk while Hamas's has increased to levels unseen since its 2006 electoral victory. Small steps toward reconciliation between Hamas and the PLO have been taken, but they are very distant from the end goal of a unified, representative Palestinian leadership. But in reconciliation lies the only hope of achieving a sustainable ceasefire and, more broadly, of bringing Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank under one authority.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

64. After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Arab Spring had a military dimension in both its targets—regimes with a military background—and its outcomes. Where the armed forces in their entirety or partially sided with the protesters regime change succeeded; where they did not, it failed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

65. Action Research in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel

Author:: Kate Bowen
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel (OPTI) is one of four Oxfam country projects delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict - affected and fragile contexts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

66. Fostering Community Change in the West Bank

Author:: Louie Fooks
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel (OPTI) is one of four Oxfam country programmes delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by DFID from 2011 to 20 16 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict-affected and fragile contexts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Political Economy, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

67. Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The peace process to end the 30-year-old insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) against Turkey's government is at a turning point. It will either collapse as the sides squander years of work, or it will accelerate as they commit to real convergences. Both act as if they can still play for time – the government to win one more election, the PKK to further build up quasi-state structures in the country's predominantly- Kurdish south east. But despite a worrying upsurge in hostilities, they currently face few insuperable obstacles at home and have two strong leaders who can still see the process through. Without first achieving peace, they cannot cooperate in fighting their common enemy, the jihadi threat, particularly from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Increasing ceasefire violations, urban unrest and Islamist extremism spilling over into Turkey from regional conflicts underline the cost of delays. Both sides must put aside external pretexts and domestic inertia to compromise on the chief problem, the Turkey-PKK conflict inside Turkey.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

68. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: An Accident of History

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The following IntelBrief is excerpted from The Soufan Group's recent long-form report on The Islamic State, which takes an in-depth look at the extremist group's operations across Iraq and Syria. From late 2011 up to today, The Islamic State has shown itself both tactically and strategically adept. After years of surviving as a persistently violent criminal/terrorist gang able to mount multiple synchronized attacks in urban areas in Iraq but little more, it achieved unparalleled gains when the collapse of government in northern and eastern Syria allowed it to expand across the border. At the same time, the sectarian approach of then-Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki had made the Sunni minority in Iraq ready to support any group that appeared to have the potential to reverse its increasing marginalization. It's accurate to say the group would still exist-but in nothing like its current form-had only one of those two catastrophes-Syria and Maliki-occurred; that both played out as they did made what has happened seem an almost inevitable accident of history.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

69. Bringing Back the Palestinian Refugee Question

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Palestinian refugee question, like the refugees themselves, has been politically marginalised and demoted on the diplomatic agenda. Yet, whenever the diplomatic process comes out of its current hiatus, the Palestinian leadership will be able to negotiate and sell a deal only if it wins the support or at least acquiescence of refugees – because if it does not, it will not bring along the rest of the Palestinian population. Refugees currently feel alienated from the Palestinian Authority (PA), which they regard with suspicion; doubt the intentions of Palestinian negotiators, whom they do not believe represent their interests; and, as one of the more impoverished Palestinian groups, resent the class structure that the PA and its economic policies have produced. As a result of their isolation, refugees in the West Bank and Gaza are making demands for services and representation that are reinforcing emerging divisions within Palestinian society and politics. There arguably are ways to address refugee needs, both diplomatic and practical, that are not mutually exclusive with core Israeli interests. This report examines what could be done on the Palestinian side to mitigate the risk that the Palestinian refugee question derails a future negotiation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Refugee Issues, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

70. What Are the Prospects for Success of the Peace Talks on Syria?

Author:: Tiziana Trotta
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The United Nations Peace Conference on Syria is due to take place on 22nd January in Geneva. The Syrian Government and opposition will meet for the first time since the outbreak of the conflict in March 2011. Nevertheless, there are very few prospects of finding a satisfactory solution to end the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Islam, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

71. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democratic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organized by EuroMesco, the European Institute of the Meditereanan (IMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), wit the support of the Spanish agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a program to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Meditereanan countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation process and regional transformations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

72. South Asia Regional Dynamics and Strategic Concerns

Author:: Robert D. Lamb, Sadika Hameed, and Kathryn Mixon
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States has a number of interests and values at stake in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, or "South Asia" for the purposes of this analysis. But it also has a broader set of such concerns at stake regionally (in the greater Middle East, Eurasia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia)—and, of course, globally as well. Any long- term policy or strategy frame- work for South Asia needs to be built around the global and regional concerns that are most likely to persist across multiple changes in U.S. political leadership regardless of political party.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, and India

73. Iraq in Crisis

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As events in late December 2013 and early 2014 have made brutally clear, Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war. It is burdened by a long history of war, internal power struggles, and failed governance. Is also a nation whose failed leadership is now creating a steady increase in the sectarian divisions between Shi'ite and Sunni, and the ethnic divisions between Arab and Kurd.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, and Arabia

74. Cybersecurity and Stability in the Gulf

Author:: James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Gulf has become a flashpoint for cyber conflict. Cyberspace has become an arena for covert struggle, with the United States, Israel and other nations on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other. Iran has far outpaced the GCC states in developing its cyber capabilities, both for monitoring internal dissent and deploying hackers to disrupt or attack foreign targets. Several such attacks over the past two years were likely either directed or permitted by Iranian state authorities. Even if Iran holds back from offensive actions as nuclear talks progress, the growth in Iranian capabilities remains a potential security threat for other Gulf states. The GCC countries have begun to develop their defensive capabilities, but they will need to expand their defenses and collaborate more effectively to deter future threats.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

75. The Failure of the Security Paradigm in Syria: The human security perspective

Author:: Ari Kerkkänen
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Few would dispute the assertion that human security has failed in Syria. Authoritarian regimes in the Arab world have had well-documented deficits in human security emerging from coercive internal politics, a lack of respect for human rights such as freedom of expression, and limited freedom from fear and want. The concept of human security has developed mainly within the domain of UN development policy, but it has also made headway in security policy, being advocated as one approach in international crisis management and peacekeeping. Less attention has been paid to its adaptability in forming the basis for the internal security policy of any given state. The main argument of this paper is that human security principles can be the cornerstones of state security, potentially preventing, mitigating, and remedying security issues within a state that could lead to societal upheaval. The argument is presented by outlining some major developments in the history of modern Syria up to its present state of civil war. The paper shows that the security paradigm exercised in Syria has led to a double failure in which human insecurity has resulted in turmoil for ordinary people and has shattered the authoritarian governance. The paper suggests that the rebuilding of security sectors must be based on the principles of human security, not only in Syria but also in the Arab world at large.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

76. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

77. Jordan: The Geopolitical Service Provider

Author:: Emmanuel Comolet
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Jordan is in the eye of the Arab cyclone. It remains stable while surrounded by chaotic political situations in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the Sinai Peninsula. Jordan has not experienced the massive demonstrations aimed at regime change that have been seen elsewhere in the region, and its relative stability has enabled it to cash in on the geo-political services it provides. These services include: hosting refugees from Palestine, Iraq or Syria; remaining a reliable ally for many international powers; featuring a strong army that plays a stabilizing role in the region; serving as an intermediary when neighboring countries need a host or a dealmaker; and providing qualified Jordanian workers to fill open vacancies for companies and countries, especially in the Gulf. The current stability in Jordan matches well its historic capacity to resist and adapt to shocks. However, the contemporary situation of the labor market reveals that the weaknesses observed in the countries having experienced revolutions (e.g., Tunisia and Egypt) are also present in Jordan; labor market participation is low with very few women active, and the unemployment rate of educated young people is worrisome. Both the number of Jordanians working abroad and the number of migrant workers in Jordan show the discrepancy between demand and supply of labor in Jordan. This could become problematic, since the economic situation has been worsening, notably with fewer public jobs available. Hence there is a need for international donors to keep supporting Jordan in a difficult regional environment, for the government of Jordan to wittily manage the balance between Transjordanians and West Bankers in the near future and for new workers to alter their expectations in searching for opportunities outside the public sector.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia

78. The Flawed Strategic Debate on Syria

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Dating from Bashar al-Asad's first suppression of mass demonstrations in April 2011, the war in Syria is now 3 years old, has killed more than 130,000 Syrians, and displaced nine million Syrians, two million as refugees into neighboring countries. Foreign intervention has increasingly shaped the course of the fighting and will continue to have substantial regional consequences. The complexity of this bitter, nominally internal struggle has dampened American enthusiasm for joining the fray or even paying much attention to Syria, notwithstanding the chemical weapon attacks on Gouta, east of Damascus, last August, which captured the attention of the American people, media, and policy community. With an international taboo broken and a Presidential redline crossed, public debate spiked in August-September 2013 over U.S. interests in Syria and the limits on what we will do to secure them. Debate did not result in a consensus for action.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

79. The Roots of Crisis in Northern Lebanon

Author:: Raphaël Lefèvre
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Syria's civil war is having a dramatic impact on its neighbors, particularly Lebanon. The spillover is glaring in the northern city of Tripoli, where street violence is rising, sectarianism is at unprecedented levels, and Sunni extremism is flourishing. This instability threatens to spread to other areas of the country. Yet, Lebanon's problems have as much to do with domestic dynamics as with the unrest in Syria. Lebanese policymakers must address a number of issues that have long been ignored.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

80. Choreographies of Shared Sacred Sites: Religion, Politics, and Conflict Resolution

Author:: Elazar Barkan and Barkey Karen
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: This anthology explores the dynamics of shared religious sites in Turkey, the Balkans, Palestine/Israel, Cyprus, and Algeria, indicating where local and national stakeholders maneuver between competition and cooperation, coexistence and conflict. Contributors probe the notion of coexistence and the logic that underlies centuries of "sharing," exploring when and why sharing gets interrupted--or not--by conflict, and the policy consequences. These essays map the choreographies of shared sacred spaces within the framework of state-society relations, juxtaposing a site's political and religious features and exploring whether sharing or contestation is primarily religious or politically motivated. Although religion and politics are intertwined phenomena, the contributors to this volume understand the category of "religion" and the "political" as devices meant to distinguish between the theological and confessional aspects of religion and the political goals of groups. Their comparative approach better represents the transition in some cases of sites into places of hatred and violence, while in other instances they remain noncontroversial. The essays clearly delineate the religious and political factors that contribute to the context and causality of conflict at these sites and draw on history and anthropology to shed light on the often rapid switch from relative tolerance to distress to peace and calm.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, International Affairs, and Culture
Political Geography:: Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa
Publication Identifier:: 9780231169943
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

81. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

82. The civil defence-civilian protection nexus in the Occupied Palestinian Territory

Author:: Riina Isotalo
Publication Date:: 01-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This report investigates the civil defence-civilian protection interface in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). Findings show that international support to Palestinian civilians' safety is divided along the lines of civilian protection and civil defence. There are also striking differences between the Gaza administration's and the Palestinian Authority's (PA) approach to the interface of civilian protection and civil defence. The former has an explicitly gendered view and integrates internal and external threats to safety. At present, the PA is committed to the Hyogo Framework of Action and its approach reflects the international aid policy approach. However, gendered examples suggest that the cultural value basis of civil defence is not very different in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Interviews with officials from West Bank municipalities show varying levels of awareness of civil defence law and national strategy, and variations in municipalities' existing civil defence practices in the West Bank. Existing plans and policy documents focus on natural hazards and appear to be gender blind, which, in the light of past experiences in the OPT and elsewhere, may increase violence against women in emergency situations. The report concludes that the encouragement of communitybased emergency preparedness by the PA and the international community reflects the privatisation of important segments of safety and protection to families and households.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Civil Society, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Gaza

83. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The report shows that Iran's current missile and rocket forces help compensate for its lack of effective air power and allow it to pose a threat to its neighbors and US forces that could affect their willingness to strike on Iran if Iran uses its capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf or against any of its neighbors. At another level, Iran's steady increase in the number, range, and capability of its rocket and missile forces has increased the level of tension in the Gulf, and in other regional states like Turkey, Jordan, and Israel. Iran has also shown that it will transfer long-range rockets to “friendly” or “proxy” forces like the Hezbollah and Hamas. At a far more threatening level, Iran has acquired virtually every element of a nuclear breakout capability except the fissile material needed to make a weapon. This threat has already led to a growing “war of sanctions,” and Israeli and US threats of preventive strikes. At the same time, the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programs cannot be separated from the threat posed by Iran's growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf and along all of its borders. It is far from clear that negotiations and sanctions can succeed in limiting Iran's ability to acquire nuclear weapons and deploy nuclear-armed missiles. At the same time, the report shows that military options offer uncertain alternatives. Both Israel and the US have repeatedly stated that they are planning and ready for military options that could include preventive strikes on at least Iran's nuclear facilities and, and that US strikes might cover a much wider range of missile facilities and other targets. A preventive war might trigger a direct military confrontation or conflict in the Gulf with little warning. It might also lead to at least symbolic Iranian missile strikes on US basing facilities, GCC targets or Israel. At the same time, it could lead to much more serious covert and proxy operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, the rest of the Gulf, and other areas.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

84. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Byran Gold
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Iran almost certainly recognizes that US conventional superiority would give the US and its Gulf allies the upper hand in a serious conventional conflict where they could use the full spectrum of their abilities to attack a range of Iranian military targets. As a result, Iran is linking the steady expansion of its asymmetric forces to new uses of its conventional forces, and is building up its missile and nuclear capabilities, in part to deter retaliation against its use of asymmetric warfare, and in part to pose a major challenge to US and allied conventional superiority If the US is to successfully neutralize this complex mix of threats that can be used in so many different ways and at some many different levels of escalation, it must continuously adapt its forward deployed and power projection forces to deal Iranian efforts to improve its capability conduct a battle of attrition in the Gulf or near it, and deal with contingencies like Iran's use of free floating mines, unattributable attacks, and any other form of asymmetric warfare than threatens friendly Gulf states and the flow of world energy exports from the region. The US, must also work with its Gulf partners and other allies to deter and defend against very different types of conflict and be prepared to face sharp limits on the amount of force it can use. US success depends on building up the capabilities of its strategic partners in the Arab Gulf, as well as improving its cooperation with more traditional partners like Britain and France.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

85. Ambiguous endings: Middle East regional security in the wake of the Arab Uprisings and the Syrian civil war

Author:: Helle Malmvig
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Middle East regional security order is under rapid transformation. The Arab Uprisings and the Syrian War are changing not only the relationship between state and societies, but also some of the region's core norms and historical divisions. This report analyses key changes in regional security order the Middle East in the period after 2010. It identifies five key issues where regional order is changing: State-society relations Relations with the West and foreign policy posturing The impact of the Iran-Syria –Hezbollah Axis (the Resistance Front) and radical-moderate divide The Sunni-Shia rift and the rise of identity politics The Saudi-Qatar rivaling, and the role of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Qatar

86. A Turkish Perspective on Security Issues in the Mediterranean

Author:: Şadi Ergüvenç
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The Mediterranean is where the atmosphere of mutual distrust, fear and polarization prevail. Arab Israeli dispute and Turkish Greek differences over the Aegean and Cyprus impede efforts for developing mutual confidence and co operation. Recently, economic and financial crises and the “Arab Risings” have brought along more reasons for concern. Islamophobia and racism versus Islamic jihadism increase the risk of confrontation. Turkey together with Spain appeals for an “Alliance of Civilizations” and exploits its double identity, European and Muslim, through a proactive and multilateral poli cy for finding peaceful solutions to chronic regional solutions. Greece and Greek Cypriot governments should refrain from unilateral attempts to declare maritime borders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

87. Cooperation from Crisis? Regional Responses to Humanitarian Emergencies

Author:: Walter Kemp, Jérémie Labbé, and Lilianne Fan
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: As the situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, could the humanitarian crisis afflicting the country and its neighbors provide an entryway for regional cooperation? This policy paper examines how regional responses to humanitarian crises have succeeded or failed to meet humanitarian objectives in order to inform approaches to contemporary crises. It also assesses whether such regional responses contributed to strengthening regional integration and cooperation, paving the way for increased regional stability and an improved capacity to respond to emergencies. The report explores two different humanitarian crises: the war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s and Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008. Examining the ways in which countries in each region and regional organizations addressed humanitarian needs, it draws a number of lessons that could be applied in contemporary crises: Regional ownership over the response is crucial, but not necessarily spontaneous. External actors can usefully contribute through a balanced mix of pressure and technical support. Preexisting regional organizations can provide a valuable institutional framework on which to build the response. An approach that focuses on the specific needs of the most vulnerable individuals can help to depoliticize discussions while strengthening trust among regional stakeholders. Complementary policy-level and expert-level processes can equip the response with both political commitment and regular working relationships for addressing tangible needs.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Yugoslavia, Syria, and Myanmar

88. Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform

Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Negotiations underway since late 2012 between Turkey's government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) are stalling. A ceasefire announced on 23 March 2013 remains precarious, as maximalist rhetoric gains renewed traction on both sides. While the PKK should be doing more to persuade Ankara that it wants a compromise peace, the government has a critical responsibility to fully address the longstanding democratic grievances of Turkey's Kurds. One reason it frequently gives for its hesitation is fear of a nationalist backlash. In fact, the peace process has already demonstrated how willing mainstream Turks would be to accept steps towards democratisation. A much bigger risk for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), as it heads into a two-year cycle of local, presidential and parliamentary elections, would be if the three-decade-old conflict plunges into a new cycle of violence.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Peace Studies, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

89. Somalia Redux? Assessing the New Somali Federal Government

Author:: Matt Bryden
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Somalia marked a milestone in September 2012 with the establishment of a new federal government that has since won the support and recognition of the international community. After more than 20 years of conflict, crisis, and statelessness and 12 years of ineffectual transitional authorities, the Somali federal government (SFG) has been widely welcomed as Somalia's first “post-transition” government. It has been greeted with such a groundswell of optimism that many observers, including British Prime Minister David Cameron, have drawn parallels with the “Arab Spring” that has transformed parts of the Middle East. It is tempting to imagine that Somalia is finally on the path to recovery.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Arabia, and Somalia

90. Yemen and U.S. Security

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman, Robert M. Shelala II, and Omar Mohamed
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Yemen is the most troubled state in the Arabian Peninsula. It remains in a low - level state of civil war, and is deeply divided on a sectarian, tribal, and regional level. A largely Shi'ite Houthi rebellion still affects much of the northwest border area and has serious influence in the capital of Sana and along parts of the Red Sea coast. Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) poses a threat in central Yemen, along with other elements of violent Sunni extremism, there are serious tensions between the northern and southern parts of Yemen, and power struggles continue between key elements of the military ruling elite in the capital and outside it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

91. Great Expectations: Iran's New President and the Nuclear Talks

Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In a region that recently has produced virtually nothing but bad news, Hassan Rouhani's 4 August swearing in as Iran's president offers a rare and welcome glimmer of hope. There are still far more questions than answers: about the extent of his authority; his views on his country's nuclear program, with which he long has been associated; and the West's ability to display requisite flexibility and patience. But, although both sides can be expected to show caution, now is the time to put more ambitious proposals on the table, complement the multilateral talks with a bilateral U.S.-Iranian channel and expand the dialogue to encompass regional security issues.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

92. Make or Break: Iraq's Sunnis and the State

Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The question of Sunni Arab participation in Iraq's political order that has plagued the transition since its inception is as acute and explosive as ever. Quickly marginalised by an ethno-sectarian apportionment that confined them to minority status in a system dominated by Shiites and Kurds, most community members first shunned the new dispensation then fought it. Having gradually turned from insurgency to tentative political involvement, their wager produced only nominal representation, while reinforcing feelings of injustice and discrimination. Today, with frustration at a boil, unprecedented Sunni-Shiite polarisation in the region and deadly car bombings surging across the country since the start of Ramadan in July, a revived sectarian civil war is a serious risk. To avoid it, the government should negotiate local ceasefires with Sunni officials, find ways to more fairly integrate Sunni Arabs in the political process and cooperate with local actors to build an effective security regime along the Syrian border.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Political Economy, Terrorism, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

93. Oil, Conflict, and U.S. National Interests

Author:: Jeff D. Colgan
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Although the threat of “resource wars” over possession of oil reserves is often exaggerated, the sum total of the political effects generated by the oil industry makes oil a leading cause of war. Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been connected to one or more oil-related causal mechanisms. No other commodity has had such an impact on international security.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

94. Transitional Justice for Syria

Author:: Nicholas Rostow
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Transitional justice is the provision of justice in the transition from one form of government, often perceived as illegitimate, unjust, and tyrannical, or an anarchic society, to one that observes the rule of law and administers justice. It also is about choices: how to allocate scarce prosecutorial, judicial, police, and prison resources. The goal is to make the rule of law ordinary. A 2004 report of the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General on the rule of law and transitional justice in conflict and postconflict societies observed that most examples of transitional justice involved states emerging from civil war or widespread civil unrest such that government became impossible.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria

95. The Reluctant Sectarianism of Foreign States in the Syrian Conflict

Author:: Thomas Pierret
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Syrian conflict's internal dynamics have reshuffled regional alignments alongside unprecedentedly clear-cut sectarian dividing lines; this has often occurred against the preferences of regional state actors−including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign states have generally adopted expedient policies that followed sectarian patterns for lack of alternatives. Iran bears significant responsibility for exacerbating the conflict's sectarian character at the regional level. There is no such “diplomatic shortcut” to regional appeasement; it is the domestic Syrian deadlock that must be broken in order to alleviate sectarian tensions across the Middle East, not the opposite.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

96. Syria's Sectarian Ripples across the Gulf

Author:: Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Like the Iraq war and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon's 2006 war, Syria's internecine conflict has enabled the Gulf's ruling families, media commentators, clerics, parliamentarians, and activists to invoke and amplify Sunni-Shia identities, often for goals that are rooted in local power politics. By-products of the mounting sectarian tension include the fraying of reform cooperation among sects and regions, and pressure on the Gulf's formal political institutions. Traditional and social media have served to amplify the most polarizing voices as well as provide reform activists new means for cross-sectarian communication that circumvent governmental efforts to control or block such activities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

97. Sunni-Shia Relations After the Iraq War

Author:: Fanar Haddad
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In Iraq, as elsewhere in the Middle East, the social, political, and technological changes of the 21st century are giving birth to a new sectarian landscape. The three most consequential drivers behind the change in sectarian relations have been the political change in Iraq of 2003; the near simultaneous spread of new media and social networking in the Arab world; and – perhaps as a consequence of the first two – the ongoing search for alternatives to familiar but moribund forms of authoritarianism, as demonstrated most dramatically by the “Arab Spring.” 2003 highlighted the uncomfortable fact that there were multiple, indeed contradictory, visions of what it meant to be an Iraqi and by extension what it meant to be a part of the Arab world. New media, social networking, user-generated websites, and private satellite channels helped to make Iraq's accelerated sectarianization contagious. The mainstreaming of sectarian polemics has increased the relevance of religious, doctrinal, and dogmatic differences in views regarding the sectarian “other,” a particularly dangerous development.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

98. Sectarianism in Lebanon and Syria: The Dynamics of Mutual Spill-Over

Author:: Joseph Bahout
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: When the Arab revolutions reached Syria, the Sunni-Shia cleavage in Lebanon was already well in the making. Syria's turmoil only added fuel to an existing fire in Lebanon. Syria's crisis is intensifying Sunni-Shia tensions in Lebanon on two levels, symbolic and identity-based on the one hand, and geopolitical or interest based, on the other hand. The shift toward identity-based or symbolic forms of sectarianism can probably be explained by the existential character the struggle in the Levant is taking, whereby both “communities,” however imagined or over-constructed, are coming to perceive themselves as defending not only their share of resources or power, but their very survival. Lebanon's minority communities – including Christian and Druze – are increasingly anxious about the changing regional environment. Lebanon and Syria must face the difficult equation of sectarian diversity and national unity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

99. The Syrian Conflict's Impact on Lebanese Politics

Author:: Melani Cammett
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Syrian crisis has had a negative impact on Lebanon's political scene, including the dynamics among political factions within and across the country's major sectarian communities. The political fragmentation of the Sunni community has implications for the growing trend toward political violence triggered by the Syrian conflict. The rise of challengers and the decline of centralized authority within the Sunni community further increase the probability of violence perpetrated by in-group factions. Despite the pressures from the Syrian conflict, mounting sectarian tensions will not inexorably spark another all-out civil war. If Lebanon does not move past the current political deadlock and stagnation, the spillover from the Syrian crisis stands to undermine the country's stability in the longer term.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

100. The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon. Local and Regional Rationales for Hezbollah's Involvement in Syria

Author:: Charles-Brian Biondi
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the conflict, Syria has been the playground for several actors, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Iran, defending their domestic interests or fighting for regional influence. The conflict entered a new phase in June 2013 with the direct involvement of Hezbollah, which sent troops to help al-Assad's regime fighting the armed insurrection. This event has had significant repercussions not only for the Syrian conflict itself but also for Lebanon. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the reasons that have led Hezbollah to engage openly in the Syrian conflict and what the consequences of such a decision could be, both for the country's and the party's future. The author argues that the party's involvement in the conflict is primarily a primordial necessity as the current Syrian regime is one of Hezbollah's strongest allies in the region without being a vital one. Thus the loss of the Syrian regime has the potential to pose new difficulties to the movement but would not necessarily imply its destruction.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Intelligence, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS