Political Geography: Middle East / Topic:

401. Access to Healthcare: A right not a luxury

Author:: Sasha Hilani
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The past couple of years have been detrimental to Lebanon and to all those who reside there, particularly the LGBTQIA+ community. In 2021, the national suicide prevention hotline received approximately 1,100 calls per month, twice the amount in 2020. The deep crises Lebanon is going through have led to increased cases of mental health issues, especially among marginalized and vulnerable groups, particularly the LGBTQIA+ community. This policy brief examines the challenges that LGBTQIA+ individuals face when accessing mental health services and recommends approaches to ensure more equitable and facilitated access.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Discrimination, and LGBT+
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

402. Unfarmed Now, Uninhabited When? Agriculture and climate change in Iraq

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Small-scale farmers in Iraq are among the most affected groups in Iraq by climate change and water scarcity. With the reduction of rainfall and soaring temperature, agricultural production is dropping, and farmers’ ability to cope is hindered. Affected farmers are exhausted and feel that they are left alone in the face of crisis. Many farmers are leaving their lands and looking for better opportunities away from their land and the urban areas. Duty bearers need to mobilize resources and political well to support farmers and the agricultural sector through a national strategy with clear vision on the current needs and comprehensive forecast of the impacts of climate change. While agriculture is at the heart of Iraq’s past and present, its position in the country’s future is at risk.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Food, and Farming
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

403. Uncovering the Potential: The role of informal actors in solid waste management in Jordan

Author:: Farah Abu Safe, Hannah Patchett, and Raya Taher
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Salvaging resources from waste containers and landfills, waste pickers are the main suppliers to the recycling sector in Jordan, yet they often live in poverty and are exposed to multiple risks. The Jordanian government seeks to integrate waste pickers into formal waste management processes, but progress has been slow. Based on interviews with formal and informal actors in the waste sector, this study provides an overview of waste pickers’ socioeconomic conditions and operations and explores pathways for their integration that could support the recycling sector’s potential to create jobs, alleviate poverty and protect the environment.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Waste, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

404. Analyzing Voter Turnout in Lebanon: Political Change in Times of Crisis

Author:: Dana Abed, Rihab Sawaya, and Nadim Tabbal
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In May 2022, Lebanon is hosting its first parliamentary elections since the popular uprising of October 2019, when massive protests took place to denounce the current ruling elites. This research looks at voter turnout and behavior on the eve of the elections and examines the will for political change. It argues that in the current Lebanese context, there needs to be further political awareness-raising, and campaigns should be more inclusive of women and the queer community. Independent campaigns should focus on developing strong governing capacities that voters can trust, and create further space for civic and political engagement on the local and national levels.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

405. WPA in Afghanistan: Betrayal and Renewal

Author:: Farkhondeh Akbari
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021 unraveled significant achievements of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda in Afghanistan over the last two decades.1 Every western donor present in the country pushed the WPS agenda over the past two decades of their engagement in Afghanistan. The previous Government of Afghanistan adopted a National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security in 2015. They made concerted efforts to implement the NAP by promoting women’s participation in the peace process, the parliament, in government and the security sector, and to protect women and girls from gender-based violence and other violations of their human rights.
Topic:: Human Rights, Governance, Taliban, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

406. Making Sense of Risky Haredi Behaviors in Israel During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Ferit Belder
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Covid-19 not only posed a threat to the bodies of individuals or their mental health but also disrupted routines that are re-producing certain communities every day. This is particularly the case for communities with already securitized identities such as the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) society in Israel. Its authentic narrative, routines and practices that had been sustained thanks to their decades-long autonomy within the state, faced a substantial challenge when the state-led pandemic measures arrived in Haredi towns. This article seeks to explain the Haredi non-compliance with certain pandemic instructions like closing religious and educational centers, through the conceptual lens of an ontological security approach. It argues that the ontological security concerns of the Haredi leadership hampered them from fully complying with the state-led pandemic measures, even at the expense of risking the lives of individual Haredim.
Topic:: Public Health, Autonomy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

407. Ontological Insecurity, Anxiety, and Hubris: An Affective Account of Turkey-KRG Relations

Author:: Özlem Kayhan Pusane and Asli Ilgit
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Given Iraqi Kurds’ special place in Turkey’s ‘biographical narrative’, Turkey-Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) relations are not simply strategic or economic but also highly affectively charged. These relations involve emotional encounters filled with anxiety, pride, anger, and disappointment that generate concerns for not only Turkey’s physical security but also its ontological security. This paper traces the emotional context of Turkey- KRG relationship. It suggests that a combination of Turkey’s deep-rooted ‘anxiety’ and ‘hubris’ toward the Iraqi Kurds prevented the emergence of a close partnership between these two actors and fostered merely a ‘fragile rapprochement’ since 2008.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Identity
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Kurdistan

408. Turkey as Normative Power: Connections with the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Spring

Author:: Beatrix Futak-Campbell and Hylke de Sauvage Nolting
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The debate on normative power has mainly been focused on the European Union. This is partly owing to the fact that its conception is very Euro/Western centric. Yet, it is assumed that the concept is applicable to other actors. The aim of this paper therefore is to examine Turkey and whether its actions embody normative power in Syria and Egypt during the Arab Spring. It applies de Zutter’s four-step methodology of identifying normative power. The result is mixed. In the case of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey tried to be a normative power but failed, due to a lack of recognition. In the case of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey was perceived as a normative power due to the combination of its Islamic identity, adherence to democracy, and the role of religion in its society. The implications of this are significant, since this paper demonstrates that normative power can travel outside of its Euro/Western centric context. At the same time, it also demonstrates that the norms are different and context specific.
Topic:: Religion, Social Movement, Arab Spring, Norms, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Egypt

409. The Security Ghost of the January 25th Revolution in al-Sisi Regime’s Policy toward Gaza

Author:: Shaimaa Magued
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: This study argues that al-Sisi regime has been haunted by the January 25 uprisings as a potential recurrent threat to the state survival during the formulation of national and foreign politics. In the aim of boosting its international legitimacy before Western allies, especially the US, the regime has capitalized on political instabilities in Gaza as a means to ensure its security grip on power without incurring foreign allies’ critics for human rights violations. How did al-Sisi regime mobilize Gaza as a means for bolstering its international credibility before Western bailers and shunning off the January 25 security ghost? In answering this question, this study refers to haunted politics in foreign policy-making as an informative perspective about the impact of traumatic events on ruling regimes’ interpretation of incidents, convocation of memories, recreation of meanings, and subjugation of citizens. Unlike Mubarak’s limited support for the Palestinian cause and Morsi’s exclusive ties with Hamas, al-Sisi adopted a balanced approach toward Gaza in the aim of counterbalancing the US reservations over the regime’s human rights violations since 2013.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Revolution, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

410. Beyond Statelessness: 'Unchilding' and the Health of Palestinian Children in Jerusalem

Author:: Osama Tanous, Bram Wispelwey, and Rania Muhareb
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Understanding the key determinants of health of Palestinian children in occupied East Jerusalem is enhanced by analyzing Jerusalem as a settler colonial frontier. Structural racism, prolonged occupation, and settler colonialism shape the social and political determinants of health in Jerusalem, generating ill health and insecurity for Palestinian children who are rendered stateless in their own city. They are “unchilded” and, in fact, treated like enemies of the settler state. Colonial violence penetrates their family stability, homes, classrooms, and targets their bodies and health. In providing a thorough analysis of the lived experience of indigenous Palestinian children in Jerusalem, a broadened understanding of the effects of statelessness on their health can begin to take shape.
Topic:: Health, Territorial Disputes, Children, Citizenship, Displacement, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

411. Undocumented Children in Iran

Author:: Zahra Abtahi, Keyvan Zamani, and Miriam Potocky
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Children are among the most vulnerable groups to suffer the consequences of a lack of documentation. A lack of legal documentation identifying citizenship precludes children from rights and privileges accorded to their documented peers. While a lack of documentation is usuallythe result ofimmigrants or asylum seekers enteringanother country without legal documentation or not renewingtheir visas after entry, it may also occur when a female national of a country cannot pass her nationality to her child because she is married to a non-national without valid documentation. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of March 2021, equality between men and women relating totheconferral of nationality upon children has not yet been attained in 25 countries worldwide, including Iran.1Thiscommentaryaims to provide brief explanationsof the legal procedures regarding nationality in Iran, the different undocumented groupsandthelegal advocacy to address the issue of lack of documentation, in light of new progress addressingthe inequality in conferring nationality between men and women.
Topic:: Law, Children, Stateless Population, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

412. Comment on the Zhao Case: Can a ‘Victory for Human Rights’ in the Netherlands Benefit Children at Risk of Statelessness in the Middle East and North Africa?

Author:: Thomas McGee and Yoana Kuzmova
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Zhao establishes a significant precedent, but it remains to be seen how easily the outcome can be translated into victories elsewhere. In practical terms, the universal application of the decision may be hampered by the limitations of the legal and institutional landscape in the MENA.This issueneeds to be pushed to challenge violations of the same right:a nationality forall children,at birth,everywhere in the world.
Topic:: Human Rights, Law, Citizenship, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and MENA

413. Politicking in Doha: But will the Syrian opposition shift to more pragmatic diplomacy?

Author:: Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) and the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) are in dire need of internal renewal and a new political strategy given the deadlock of UN-led peace negotiations. A forthcoming opposition gathering on 4 February in Doha with more than 80 Syrian opposition leaders, activists and academics might offer an opportunity to do so. However, the event’s public face is Riyad Hijab, who is no longer part of the SOC and is seen as pursuing an internal leadership takeover. It is likely that the event will be part of a series that seeks to create a new centre of opposition without creating a new opposition body. Yet, neither Hijab’s internal politicking nor possible legitimacy/efficiency gains from implementation of a parallel SOC internal reform plan will generate a new political strategy for the opposition. This requires creative and pragmatic diplomacy that focuses on, for example, negotiating crossline arrangements between all conflict parties that improve local security and facilitate travel, trade and aid to improve the desperate situation of the Syrian people — in line with the UN’s call for a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE). The habits of dialogue and compromise that can gradually develop in this manner could be leveraged at a later stage to address the more complex issues of power sharing and reconstruction once an appropriate window of opportunity has opened up.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Syrian War, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Doha

414. All eyes on Ankara: A scenario exercise focused on the 2023 elections

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the years, foreign policy has become a source of tension in the European Union’s relationship with Turkey. Although the EU has repeatedly disapproved of Ankara’s (military) interventions in Syria, Libya and Iraq as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the South Caucasus, it has so far not been able to counterbalance Ankara’s actions. In that light, Turkey’s 2023 elections serve as a crucial moment. Seen through the lens of two theoretical scenarios – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance win the elections, versus Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections – this policy brief provides an insight into the instruments the EU has at its disposal to influence and/or respond to Ankara’s potential future foreign policy. It shows that while neither scenario will be hassle-free, the EU has most room to manoeuvre and can make best use of its instruments, ranging from diplomatic engagement to military cooperation, in a situation where Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections in 2023.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

415. A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022

Author:: Nancy Ezzeddine and Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In the four years since its territorial defeat, Islamic State (IS) has proved to be resilient as it continues to mount attacks across Iraq. Analysis of IS activity from September 2021 to February 2022 (six months) shows that the geography, type and targets of IS attacks remained broadly similar to the year preceding this period. The volume of IS attacks increased but this mostly took the form of small-scale and local incidents. By and large, the group seems to be stable and shows neither decline nor growth. It operates nimbly and is mostly active in the arc between Sinjar and Baghdad. Counter-terrorism (CT) operations decreased in volume over the same period but are nevertheless keeping IS in check. However, as CT operations are mostly tactical affairs that remain inadequately coordinated and low on intelligence in some aspects, they have not been able to eliminate IS capacity to mount major operations, or to remove it from entire areas. Broadly speaking, IS attacks and CT operations are in a state of equilibrium. As Iraqi CT efforts emphasise security interventions over socio-political remedies, conditions for IS survival, as well as future revival, remain relatively favourable.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

416. Lost in transition: The Muslim Brotherhood in 2022

Author:: Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Hamstrung by decades of repression, mistrust and a lack of governance experience, Muslim Brotherhood-linked parties were ultimately unable to navigate the post-2011 tensions between the need to deliver on the popular demands of the Arab uprisings and maintain ideological coherence. Similarly, they struggled to retain their revolutionary credentials and at the same time compromise with ruling elites in order to govern. While this was always a tall order, the consequence has been that decline and crisis followed the organisation’s initial ascent between 2011 and 2013. The Muslim Brotherhood gradually lost its ideological influence over parties it had inspired following the 2013 military takeover against Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. From this year onwards, growing repression, marginalisation and factionalism accelerated the movement’s decline. The arrest and exile of leading Muslim Brotherhood individuals created a leadership void and opened up space for internal strife. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood is a shadow of its former self and in crisis. In parallel to the decline of the Muslim Brotherhood, the legitimacy and relevance of jihadism, political Salafism and Iran’s model of religious rule also appear to have weakened, respectively due to the ‘defeat’ of Islamic State, Saudi modernisation and the poor to mediocre governance provided by Tehran’s partners. This raises the question what major religiously inspired sources of political renewal and mobilisation remain across the Middle East and North Africa that are capable of offering credible prospects for better governance.
Topic:: Governance, Islamism, Legitimacy, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

417. The Saudi-Emirati axis and the preservation of regional order

Author:: Gertjan Hoetjes
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Arab uprisings of 2011 spurred the emergence of a Saudi-Emirati axis that sought to mitigate and – where possible – eliminate challenges posed by what these countries perceive as the so-called ‘triple threat’ to the regional order of the Middle East and North Africa: Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and violent extremist groups. Using a variety of foreign policy instruments - including military intervention and strategic outreach, funding allies and proxies as well as supporting religious networks and media outlets – the axis substantially shaped or influenced the domestic and regional events that occurred in the wake of the Arab uprisings. Broadly speaking, the Saudis and Emiratis have been successful in maintaining a monarchical/authoritarian pole in the region’s political order in their quest for domination. They have succeeded in doing so mainly through the use of soft power (finance, religious influence and media framing) in relation to weaker ‘client’ states in the region such as Bahrain, Jordan and Morocco. Their military interventions have generally not achieved their intended objectives and Saudi as well as Emirati shortcomings have been on full display in Yemen, Libya and Syria. While both countries were unable to prevent the emergence of a more multipolar regional order that includes Turkey and Iran, they have effectively helped smother popular calls for political renewal. Growing regional geopolitical competition has, however, not gone hand in hand with growing domestic turmoil. The vast financial reserves, increasing hard power and substantial reservoirs of soft power of both Saudi Arabia and the Emirates ensures that they will continue to act as defenders of the monarchical status quo of the Gulf region and its web of client states in the foreseeable future, even as competition between both partners increases at the same time.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

418. A new conflict management strategy for Syria: Creating a Safe, Calm and Neutral Environment

Author:: Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The search for peace in Syria faces a deep crisis. The battlefield has reached a stalemate, the Constitutional Committee never emerged from its cul-de-sac, and the UN’s ‘step-for-step’ approach suffers from flawed conceptual underpinnings as well as a lukewarm reception. Meanwhile, Syria remains divided into three areas that risk drifting further apart amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions. This reality on the ground should serve as a marker for recalibrating Western policy on Syria beyond the current focus on sanctions, accountability, and humanitarian aid. Western policy makers – mostly those from the US, European Union and Turkey – must base a much-needed new conflict management strategy on three ‘ground truths’: 1) the conflict is largely frozen and Syria is likely to remain divided into competing areas of control that are supported, or overseen, by external powers for the foreseeable future; 2) questions of national legitimacy and power sharing are not currently solvable and must be temporarily put on the back burner; c) diplomatic efforts to stabilise Syria and prevent partition are likely to be more effective when they focus on restoring practical connectivity between the different areas of control in terms of flows of people, goods and trade/aid/investment, as well as education. Such a strategy can take shape by operationalising the UN-sanctioned concept of a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE) via a clear set of principles for engagement, a detailed stakeholder/interest mapping of the various conflict parties, and a focus on pragmatic measures to improve daily conditions. The objective of such a strategy is to enable a durable return to relatively normal life for Syrians still living in the country, and to create linkages between the country’s war-torn parts that can open windows of opportunity in the longer term for a political process reflecting the intention of UNSCR 2254.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Syrian War, Peace, and Conflict Management
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

419. How To Talk About Migration in Africa: Classic Hurdles and Six Recommendations for European Policymakers

Author:: Victoria Rietig and Alia Fakhry
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Europeans are entering a decisive period for their relationship with African countries, on migration and beyond. Efforts to strengthen cooperation abound, but many migration initiatives are plagued by frustrations on both sides. So how to break through this vicious cycle and improve the unhealthy relationship? This paper analyzes trends in African migration policies and puts forward six recommendations for European policymakers and experts about how to prepare for their next encounter with their African counterparts – be it a friendly and informal chat or a negotiation.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

420. Labor and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Dina Bishara, Ian Hartshorn, Marc Lynch, Samar Abdelmageed, and Ashley Anderson
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Economic grievances were at the heart of the Arab uprisings which erupted a decade ago. The centrality of those grievances and the workers articulating them has led to a growing research community focused on organized labor in the Middle East and North Africa. In April 2021, Dina Bishara and Ian Hartshorn convened a virtual workshop through Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations bringing together a wide range of scholars writing in the area. POMEPS then invited those participants, as well as others who had not presented papers, to participate in a follow-on workshop to continue the discussion in September 2021. The papers in this collection are one of the fruits of this increasingly robust scholarly network.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Labor Issues, Employment, Regulation, Arab Spring, Youth, Protests, Unions, Higher Education, COVID-19, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Activism
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Gulf Nations

421. Environmental Politics in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Jeannie Sowers, Marc Lynch, Taraf Abu Hamdan, Ekin Kurtiç, and Kali Rubaii
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: In February 2022, POMEPS convened a virtual workshop bringing together interdisciplinary contributions from anthropology, public health, political science, history, and human geography. Their geographic scope includes Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Kuwait, and other Gulf countries. The papers grapple with the complexity and diversity of environmental politics and issues across the Middle East. In doing so, they contribute to important trends that have emerged in international and comparative environmental politics more broadly. Many of the papers highlight the importance of field-based research in producing insightful analyses, and all raise important and innovative questions that should inform future research in this area.
Topic:: Environment, Politics, History, Political Science, Anthropology, Public Health, and Human Geography
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, North Africa, Lebanon, Jordan, Morocco, and Gulf Nations

422. COVID-19 in the MENA: Two Years On

Author:: Marc Lynch, Vahid Abedini, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Meliha Benli Altunisik, and Mona Ali
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Early in the pandemic, POMEPS convened an online workshop with a diverse group of scholars working across the MENA region to discuss the initial impacts and to think through possible trajectories. That workshop resulted in POMEPS Studies 39, which included twenty-one essays ranging across the MENA region. Several major themes ran across those essays. We collectively expected regimes to securitize the pandemic, using the excuse of lockdowns to crack down on a protest wave that had reached multiple countries in 2019 and to further entrench authoritarian rule. We expected variation in state capacity to be a critical variable in terms of the ability of states to effectively respond to the pandemic. And several essays anticipated soft power international competition, as great powers used vaccine diplomacy to sway public attitudes their way. Two years on, how did those predictions hold up? In April 2022, POMEPS convened a follow-up workshop with some of the same scholars and a number of new contributors to assess how well those early projections panned out, and to assess the actual impacts of COVID on the region after two years. We are delighted to now publish the results of that workshop and ongoing conversations among a diverse group of scholars of the region.
Topic:: Civil Society, Health, Politics, Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Economy, Solidarity, Soft Power, Violence, Public Health, Students, COVID-19, Securitization, Gender, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and United Arab Emirates

423. Proceed with Caution: Israeli Research Collaboration with China

Author:: Casey Babb
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: For Israel, warming relations with China has, in large part, been driven by pragmatic and enticing economic prospects, with policies focused on seizing the economic opportunity. For Xi and the Chinese Communist Party, the rationale for strengthening relations with Israel has been equally pragmatic, if of a different nature. China has long sought access to Israel’s vaunted innovation and technology sector – one of the most advanced in the world. For these reasons, China-Israel relations have accelerated dramatically, in areas ranging from trade in goods, to investment deals, to diplomatic relations, and beyond. However, over the last few years, and partly in response to mounting US pressure on Israel to reconsider its relations with China, there has been a noticeable cooling of economic activity between the two countries. That being said, if Israel wants to solidify its relationship with the US while limiting the gateways China could conceivably use to access or acquire the country’s technology and innovation in certain dual-use domains, it must also ensure the country’s research, intellectual property, and expert knowledge in these areas is sufficiently protected.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

424. Islamic Republic or Islamic Monarchy? The Possible Transfer of Power in Iran to the Supreme Leader's Son

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In recent weeks, public debate in Iran has resumed regarding the possibility of transferring power after the death of the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to his son Mojtaba. In the background of this debate is criticism of the idea of cultivating Mojtaba as a possible successor, sounded by the leader of the reformist opposition, Mir-Hossein Mousavi; a report on the promotion of Mojtaba to a high religious status with the rank of ayatollah; and an expression of support for his possible appointment as leader from one of the Friday prayer leaders. The possibility of the transfer of power to Khamenei's son has already evoked severe public criticism on the ground that it contravenes the fundamental principles of the Islamic Revolution. At this point, it is too early to assess whether this scenario is indeed considered seriously. However, in the absence of a suitable consensus candidate to succeed Khamenei, it cannot be ruled out that the death of the current Supreme Leader may pave the way for a transition to an alternative governing model, including dynastic rule.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

425. Chaos in the Palestinian Authority: From Counter-Terrorism to Reconstruction

Author:: Orit Perlov and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent months have seen a steep rise in the use of live fire in the Palestinian cities in the West Bank against IDF forces, as well as in the number of shooting incidents and other attacks. Behind the shootings are primarily young Palestinians, including Fatah operatives, and this phenomenon reflects the chaos within the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli security response, which focuses on counter-terrorism and widespread arrests of suspects, generates a self-sustaining cycle of escalation and heightens the motivation among young Palestinians to enlist in the fight against the Israeli security forces. The danger is that as a result of the chaos, the PA will cease to function as a responsible, stable, and effective entity that encourages calm and is an authoritative address for communication with Israel. To curb this trend and give the PA an opportunity (perhaps its last) to regain control of the northern West Bank and stop the deterioration, reconstruction measures should be pursued vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority, and external collaboration and support should be recruited for the effort, primarily from Jordan and the Gulf states.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

426. Difficulties in the Negotiations with Iran: Implications for Israel

Author:: Eldad Shavit and Sima Shine
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran's demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the crisis and achievement of an agreement; continued stagnation, i.e., lowintensity talks; or the collapse of the negotiations. The worst scenario for Israel is a continuation of the current situation, in which Iran could in a short time accumulate enough fissile material for weapons-grade enrichment for several nuclear facilities, while the temptation of a nuclear breakout increases. Thus, Israel should immediately formulate a new strategy regarding Iran. The government should conduct a discreet dialogue with the US administration and focus on proposals that seek to advance Israel’s military and strategic needs, including consolidating covert and effective cooperation with the countries of the region under the auspices of the United States.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

427. The Bus Attack in the Jordan Valley: The Ethos of Resistance Increasingly Shapes the Palestinian Campaign

Author:: Kobi Michael
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israel's current mode of operation against the escalation of attacks in the West Bank provides fertile ground for the intensification of the Palestinian ethos of resistance. From the perspective of the armed Palestinian operatives, the cost of the violent friction with IDF forces is not overly high. Symbols of national struggle are born each day and the sense of capability and expectations of the armed struggle are intensifying in the hearts and collective consciousness of the younger generation and provide motivation to join the struggle. But Israel's management of the conflict in the format of "mowing the grass” is reaching the limit of its effectiveness and could even lead to a largescale violent outbreak while it addresses isolated trees and not the forest, which is the real strategic challenge before it.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Resistance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

428. War or Peace? Turkish Moves in Syria

Author:: Gallia Lindenstrauss and Carmit Valensi
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent increased attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria by Turkey and the Syrian rebel groups its supports raise the question whether Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to carry out his threat of May 2022 to begin another major ground operation against the Kurds. On the other hand, conciliatory statements regarding the Assad regime have been sounded recently in Turkey, and there has been discussion of the possibility of normalizing relations between the two countries after over a decade of hostility and competition. These two processes appear to be contradictory, given that the Syrian regime opposes existing Turkish control of Syrian territories, and does not wish to see this control broadened. On the other hand, this may be a calculated Turkish move that aims to show the Turkish public a concerted multi-faceted effort to confront both the Kurdish underground and the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Discussion of events in northern Syria and the web of Syrian and Turkish interests can be used to assess the question, which trend will prevail in Turkish-Syrian relations: normalization or escalation?
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Homeland Security, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

429. The American Withdrawal from Afghanistan, One Year Later

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed UAV of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was hiding in Kabul, has also contributed to the organization's weakness and put it on the defensive. For the US administration and from a long-term perspective, the withdrawal was the right step, which did not harm the United States' superpower standing and even enabled greater attention and resources for coping with the main challenges currently posed by China and Russia.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

430. The Israeli Economy in an Uncertain Global Environment

Author:: Tomer Fadlon and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Economic uncertainty has increased in recent months following the macroeconomic figures published by the major economies. The return of inflation, the supply chain crisis, and the war in Ukraine are leaving their mark on the global economy and arouse concern among both politicians and central banks. In contrast to most of the world's countries, Israel seems like an island of economic stability: inflation is relatively low, and while Western countries are posting negative growth, second-quarter growth in Israel exceeded the expectations. Yet despite the positive data, the slowdown among Israel's main trading partners is expected to affect the local economy, which will have to contend with a challenging economic environment in the coming months.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inflation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

431. Normalization between Turkey and Israel: Will it Last?

Author:: Gallia Lindenstrauss and Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The decision by Turkey and Israel to normalize their relations stems from several processes that brought the Turkish side to push for normalization and the Israeli side to respond affirmatively. Yet alongside the serious motivations of the two sides to continue this process, there are issues that could become obstacles. Among them are the developments between Israel and the Palestinians, Turkey-US relations, the dynamics of Turkey's integration in processes related to the Abraham Accords, and the nature of future Israeli plans regarding gas exports. Nonetheless, coping with challenges related to these issues will be easier with senior diplomatic representation present in both countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

432. To What Extent is Israel Prepared for the Growing Threat of UAVs?

Author:: Eden Kaduri, Liran Antebi, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The threat of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has recently figured in the headlines, following UAVs launched by Hezbollah in July 2022 aimed at the Israel natural gas platform in the Karish field, reports of a Hamas project to develop UAVs, a UAV attack against the American al-Tanf base in Syria, and reports that Russia has purchased Iranian UAVs. Such an arsenal in hostile hands constitutes a mounting threat to Israel. Assuming that UAVs, especially offensive ones, will join any high-trajectory fire against Israel, new thinking about the ways of dealing with the threat in the spheres of doctrine, development, and operations is needed. Technological and operational solutions for both the more conventional threat and a scenario of massive UAV attacks in combination with high-trajectory barrages are required. Inter alia, there should be greater reliance on lasers as a cheap solution with much higher output than the current solutions. In addition, preparations should be made for handling extreme scenarios, however unlikely.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

433. Two are Better than One: The Role of Qatar and Egypt in Gaza

Author:: Yoel Guansky and Ofir Winter
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The cooperation between Cairo and Doha has grown stronger – a development that until recently seemed nearly impossible. What lies behind the surprising rapprochement, how did it contribute to the swift conclusion of the recent campaign in Gaza, and what are the challenges and opportunities for Israel in light of the new situation?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, and Qatar

434. The State Comptroller’s Report on Cities with Mixed Jewish and Arab Populations in May 2021

Author:: Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In May 2021, 520 sites were damaged when tensions peaked between the Jewish and Arab populations in Israel. The State Comptroller issued a special report on these events, focusing on the Police, the Border Police, and the country’s municipal systems. Based on the report, this article proposes policy recommendations to reduce the possibility of a revived conflagration
Topic:: Urban, Cities, Pluralism, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

435. Non-Enforcement of the Law on Appropriate Representation in Israel: Implications for Social Resilience

Author:: Itzik Izhak Dessie and Shlomo Black
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Diversity in the public sector that reflects the diversity of a national population is a moral, ethical, social, and legal obligation. However, not one of the target groups in Israel is appropriately represented in the civil service, and in some government ministries and auxiliary units these populations are not represented at all. Israel must change its approach and increase its enforcement of measures to achieve the required diversity, in order to enable equal opportunity for all.
Topic:: Law Enforcement, Police, Resilience, and Social Control
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

436. The Abraham Accords, Two Years On: Impressive Progress, Multiple Challenges, and Promising Potential

Author:: Meir Ben-Shabbat and David Aaronson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Broad economic relations, high-level policy meetings, and developing tourism ties: two years after the historic Abraham Accords were signed, the relations between Israel and the four states have flowered. At the same time, the potential of these relations is far from realized, the challenges remain, and Jerusalem should commit itself to strengthen the Accords – and even to expand them
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

437. Saudi Arabia and Israel: Normalization at a Snail’s Pace

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the Abraham Accords were signed, and particularly with Biden’s visit to the region, some have argued that Saudi Arabia will be the next country to normalize relations with Israel. However, complete normalization is far from imminent. What are the reasons for this, and how should Israel act toward the Saudi kingdom?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

438. The Rift in Fatah, which Threatens Security Stability, is a Challenge – and Not Only for Israel

Author:: Ali Al-Awar and Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Charges of corruption, inadequate public support, and the lack of central control – the Fatah organization, led by Abu Mazen, suffers from difficult and unprecedented problems that threaten security stability in the West Bank and might lead to a scenario in which Hamas takes control of the Palestinian Authority. Israel should act to balance the precarious situation in the territories and strengthen the status of the Chairman of the PA
Topic:: Security, Leadership, Strategic Stability, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

439. Gazan Workers in Israel: Implications for Employment Regulations

Author:: Haggy Etkes and Wifag Adnan
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: New arrangements for the employment of Gazan workers in Israel in construction and agriculture began on August 1. This article presents the findings of a study on employment of Gazans in Israel: it demonstrates the rise in income among Gazans who work in Israel, while showing the difficulty related to regulation for workers employed in the manufacturing and service industries, which did not receive permits to employ Gazans
Topic:: Labor Issues, Regulation, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

440. Operation Breaking Dawn: Following the Successful Entry, an Exit Strategy is Required

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After two days of successful fighting by Israel against Islamic Jihad, with a string of impressive achievements, the principal risk now is that Hamas will decide to emerge from the sidelines and join the campaign. This turn of events would necessarily lengthen the campaign and widen its scope. Therefore, Israel should try to end the operation, while it retains the upper hand
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

441. Stateliness, IDF style

Author:: Meir Elran and Asa Kasher
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The Spirt of the IDF,” the IDF ethical code formulated twenty years ago, was updated recently with a new fundamental value: “stateliness” (mamlachtiyut, in Hebrew). What did Chief of Staff Kochavi intend with his addition of the term, and how can this value be best instilled among IDF soldiers and the general public?
Topic:: Military Strategy, Ethics, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

442. China below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology

Author:: Assaf Orion and Shira Efron
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The statements issued by President Biden during his visit to the Middle East include little mention of China. However, close reading reveals that between the lines, China is quite present in the agreements reached by the President and Israel and Saudi Arabia. The dialogue on technology cooperation announced by Jerusalem and Washington, which is related directly to the Great Power competition, signals a new stage in partnership between the countries: Israel alongside the United States, even if not against China
Topic:: Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

443. The Iranian-Russian-Turkish Summit in Tehran

Author:: Raz Zimmt, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, and Arkady Mil-Man
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The three-way summit between Presidents Raisi, Putin, and Erdogan intended to present a unified front against the Western axis, which imposes various levels of sanctions on the three states. But despite the cordial photos and warm handshakes, there are serious disputes between Tehran, Moscow, and Ankara. They are rivals no less than they are partners, and it is doubtful whether their meeting will lead to any substantive gains
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

444. Cyber Challenges and Foreign Influence in the Upcoming Knesset Elections

Author:: David Siman-Tov, Tamir Hayman, and Amos Hervitz
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: In advance of the forthcoming Knesset elections, there are heightened efforts to obstruct foreign interference. Yet while most preventive activity focuses on technological attacks on the voting process and information systems relevant to the campaign, the efforts to grapple with malign influence on internal political discourse through the spread of fake news, verbal incitement, and more are insufficient. What should Israel do to confront the threat in the most effective fashion?
Topic:: Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

445. Tehran Heightens the Pressure as it Strives to Thwart a Regional Air Defense System

Author:: Tamir Hayman and Sima Shine
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The heightened discussion of a “regional air defense alliance” was met by increased Iranian activity to block any such measure, including explicit threats that in turn prompted rejection of the idea by senior Gulf figures. It appears that at this stage, relations between Israel and the Gulf states that remain below the radar are preferable to grandiose public statements that do match the reality on the ground
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Missile Defense, Air Force, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

446. Resolving the Gas Dispute with Lebanon: First Exhaust Diplomatic Efforts

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Hezbollah’s launch of UAVs at the Karish gas field was a cognitive action directed at Israel and the Lebanese, and sparked much public criticism in the Lebanese political establishment, which is eager to reach an arrangement on the gas issue. At this stage, Israel is right not to react to the UAVs militarily, and should continue to try to exhaust the diplomatic route with its northern neighbor to demarcate the maritime border, while recognizing that the Shiite organization will attempt again to challenge the balance of deterrence
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

447. Five Good Years for the Campaign between Wars in Syria: What Comes Next?

Author:: Carmit Velensi and Eden Kaduri
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israeli Air Force jets, according to foreign sources, have struck targets in Syria for over five years, in order to reduce Iran’s entrenchment in the theater. Despite their impressive achievements, these attacks are not enough to curtail the threat from the northern border to any significant degree. Israel would do well to formulate a new strategy vis-à-vis Syria, tailored to the changing reality – and the sooner this begins, the better
Topic:: Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

448. Hezbollah Challenges Israel: Time to Rethink the Policy of Restraint

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Israel is deterred, and as long as it does not respond to Hezbollah’s launch of UAVS at the drilling rig in the Karish gas field, Nasrallah, backed by Iran, will continue to test the limits of Israel’s restraint. Sometimes it is necessary to play different, surprising cards in order to return to previous rules of the game. Therefore, Israel should respond in the air campaign and attack the Hezbollah-operated air defense systems in Lebanon, even at the risk of escalation, which at the present time is likely to be limited
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Violence, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

449. An Israeli National Guard?

Author:: Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The establishment of the Israeli Guard was announced recently, based on lessons learned from the May 2021 clashes between Arab and Jewish Israelis. Comprising police officers and volunteers, the new body’s main purpose will be to provide the Border Police with much-needed reinforcement. This is an essential, welcome measure, no less important than the quantitative and qualitative additions to the regular police. Yet no less essential is the establishment of a genuine National Guard, which will be able to provide effective assistance in all emergency situations and mass disasters
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

450. President Biden's Visit to the Middle East: Recommendations for Israel

Author:: Tamir Hayman and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: President Biden’s forthcoming trip to Israel, intended to emphasize the US commitment to Israel’s security, brings with it a golden opportunity for Jerusalem on issues such as Iran, the campaign between wars, and Saudi Arabia – also on the Biden itinerary, where the President will attempt to achieve immediate economic gains
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

451. Macron Put Down, France in Crisis: Implications for Israel

Author:: Remi Daniel
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: As a result of the recent elections in France, President Macron no longer enjoys a majority in parliament, and it remains unclear how he will be able to continue to lead his country. This unusual situation points to a severe political crisis that will require the various actors to adopt or devise new political methods. Beyond the internal significance for France, what are the implications for Israel?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Leadership, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France

452. Hezbollah’s Political Challenges following the Elections in Lebanon

Author:: Orna Mizrahi
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the Hezbollah camp was weakened in last month’s Lebanese parliamentary elections, the opposition is weak and divided. Meantime, Hezbollah maintains its status and influence, seeking to play a significant role in the next government. Nasrallah, determined to retain the organization’s independent military power, continues to try to strengthen Hezbollah’s image as a responsible national actor whose main concern is to ease Lebanon’s plight – and defend Lebanon against Israel
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Elections, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

453. The Iranian Nuclear Program Advances, with only a Slim Chance of Restoring Nuclear Agreement

Author:: Sima Shine and Ephraim Asculai
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the nuclear talks in Vienna were renewed over a year ago, a return to the deal is not on the horizon, and the regime of the ayatollahs has increased the pace of its violations of the deal, which will make it even harder for the parties to reach understandings. The coming weeks will be critical, and at this point the world powers, as well as Israel, must prepare for a reality where there is no agreement, accompanied by troubling Iranian progress on its nuclear program
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

454. Improving the Palestinian Authority’s Fiscal Outlook

Author:: Haggy Erkes and Esteban F. Klor
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Recent reports by the IMF and the World Bank emphasized the dismal fiscal situation of the Palestinian Authority, and recommended boosting foreign aid and implementing structural spending reforms. This article proposes an additional policy: a tax on work permits for Palestinians working in the Israeli econony. This measure stands to reduce the Palestinian deficit by one third, and offset some of the adverse effects of employment in Israel.
Topic:: Economics, Leadership, Fiscal Policy, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

455. The Gulf States and the Palestinian Authority: On the Brink of Change?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Kobi Michael
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The Palestinian Authority leadership seeks to ease the tensions between the PA and the UAE and Bahrain – tensions that escalated after the Abraham Accords were signed. Should Israel be concerned about the expected rapprochement, or should it rather try to take advantage of the opportunities that might ensue?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gulf Nations

456. The Unavoidable Campaign to Destroy the Jenin Terrorist Hub

Author:: Kobi Michael and Ori Wertman
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the current wave of terror, the IDF has focused its efforts specifically on the old-new terror capital of Jenin, which, while having had some success in thwarting attacks, has not eradicated the extensive terrorist system in the city and has contributed to the erosion of Israeli deterrence. Is it time to reconsider the course?
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

457. Growing Disagreements between President Raisi and his Conservative Rivals

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Lacking knowledge and experience”: recent weeks have seen growing criticism of Iranian President Raisi, primarily regarding his failure to deal with the country’s severe economic crisis. Political criticism is neither new nor rare in the Islamic Republic, but it is now emerging from within Raisi’s conservative camp, less than a year after his government was formed
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

458. US Relations with Arab Gulf States: A Passing Crisis?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After US–Saudi relations deteriorated when Biden entered the White House, relations between the two countries have recently improved, with reports of a possible visit by the US president to Riyadh. What are the reasons for the rapprochement trend, and how can it affect Israel?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

459. The Cognitive War between Israel and Hamas: Implications and Recommendations

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer and David Siman-Tov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Hamas has been working for the past year, and more specifically in the current wave of terrorism, to present itself as a powerful organization that succeeds in defeating Israel – even when things do not correspond to the situation on the ground. Israel repeatedly falls into the pit that Hamas has dug, failing to reflect the relations of the military forces before both the Palestinian and Israeli public. How can we win the game of cognition?
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

460. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations

Author:: Morr Link
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

461. Undocumented Palestinian workers in Israel: Did the Israeli COVID-19 Policy Boost their Employment?

Author:: Haggy Etkes and Wifag Adnan
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Three of the terrorist attacks that occurred in recent weeks in Israel were carried out by undocumented workers – a phenomenon that has grown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. How did the pandemic lead to a rise in the number of undocumented workers and how can the phenomenon be reduced?
Topic:: Labor Issues, Pandemic, COVID-19, Migrant Workers, and Undocumented Population
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

462. Demonstrations in Iran in Protest of the Sharp Rise in Prices of Basic Goods

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: At least three people were killed and dozens were injured and arrested in protests that erupted in southwestern Iran due to a controversial move by the government in Tehran. Until now, the scope of the protest is very limited and does not threaten the regime’s stability, but it is additional evidence of the severe economic crisis, which can be added to the long list of challenges facing President Raisi
Topic:: Economics, Protests, Demonstrations, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

463. Iraq-Gulf Relations: An Anchor for Stability and Restraining Iranian Involvement in the Region?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Yaron Schneider
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: While weathering a political crisis, Iraq is now at a crossroads regarding the future of the state. In tandem, neighboring Sunni states, led by Saudi Arabia, are moving closer to Baghdad. What are the reasons for this development, and how is it likely to affect the Middle East, Iran’s expansion in the area, and Israel?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Economic Stability, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

464. The Struggle for De Facto Sovereignty over the Temple Mount

Author:: Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: 19 Israelis were murdered in the terrorist attacks that occurred around the month of Ramadan, and once again al-Aqsa and the Temple Mount were the cause inciting the terrorists. Israel has yet to internalize that a campaign is underway for sovereignty over al-Aqsa. How should Israel act in advance of what are expected to be highly charged weeks ahead?
Topic:: Religion, Sovereignty, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

465. The Upcoming Elections in Lebanon: Dubious Possibilities for Change

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Orit Perlov
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: For the first time since the public protests and collapse of the economy, Lebanon will hold elections for its 128 parliamentary seats. Yet despite the desire for change in the political system and the concerns of Hezbollah and its allies as to their standing, it is doubtful whether the elections will lead to significant change in the Land of the Cedars
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

466. One Month after the Start of the Escalation: The Fog Dissipates

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The escalation that began even before Ramadan has exacted a painful toll in Israel, and Hamas has indeed earned some achievements and improved its status. However, thus far events have not led to the organization’s desired outcome: mass demonstrations on several fronts, with the participation of Arabs from Israel, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Does Israel recognize the new challenges that Hamas attempts to pose? And what can be done now so that next year, when once again Passover and Ramadan coincide, this escalation does not recur?
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hamas, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

467. The Gulf Countries and Turkey: (Re-)Drawing the Map of Alliances in the Middle East

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After a decade of hostility, and against the background of Turkey’s weak economic situation and Iran’s expanded regional presence, there is a significant improvement in the relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. What opportunities might this change bring for the region, and how might this affect Israel’s relations with Turkey and with the Gulf countries?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

468. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel

Author:: Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

469. Seven Years Later: Is the War in Yemen Nearly Over?

Author:: Yoel Guzansky and Inbal Nissim-Louvton
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: After seven years of war in Yemen and more than 400,000 people killed, there are signs of dramatic developments that might lead to a turning point, with important implications for the region – and for Israel
Topic:: Security, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

470. Stalemate in Talks with Iran on a Return to the Nuclear Agreement

Author:: Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

471. A Multi-Front Terror Campaign: How Should Israel Respond?

Author:: Kobi Michael and Udi Dekel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: There is a tendency to see the recent terror attacks in Israel as a new wave of terror, destined, like any wave, to ebb following its limited duration. Alternatively, recent events might challenge this paradigm and reflect a multi-theater campaign led by Hamas, in cooperation with Islamic Jihad and with Iranian support. How should Israel act in face of the current situation?
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

472. Nonetheless, We Need to Maneuver

Author:: Gal Perl Finkel
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “Defeat the enemy, defeat it quickly, in such a way that at the end of the day no one will ask who won and who lost.” These words of the former chief of staff continue to resonate today, and when voices emerge, arguing that the ground option should be a last resort, it is important to emphasize – only a combination of firepower, a defense system, and smart ground maneuvering can achieve a clear victory, one that we have not seen in a long time ago
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

473. With Ramadan Approaching, the Fear of Escalation

Author:: Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The recent terrorist attacks are a tangible illustration of the growing concern in the security establishment and among the public of possible escalation approaching and during Ramadan. Israel has a few possible ways to act to lower the flames, including political and security moves that can be taken by virtue of improved ties with states in the region
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, ISIS, Conflict, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

474. MF Dollars for Dictators? The Allocation of SDR to Moderate and Isolated Countries

Author:: Haggy Etkes
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: “The International Monetary Fund assisted radical regimes, including the Russian government and the Taliban in Afghanistan”: This claim was made given the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF to states in the region. Is there truth to this charge?
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East

475. The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: The Palestinians and the Crisis in Ukraine

Author:: Noa Shusterman
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Palestinians – unlike most of the world – have remained silent and not demonstrated any solidarity with the Ukrainian people. What lies behind this posture, and how might the focus on the war in Eastern Europe influence the Palestinian issue?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Palestinian Authority, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

476. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries

Author:: Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East

477. The Second Republic of Iran: Is Iran Moving toward a Constitutional Change?

Author:: Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: An initiative to replace the presidential system with a parliamentary system is once again on the agenda of the Islamic Republic, and this time enjoys support among conservatives as well as in the reformist-pragmatic camp – all for their respective reasons. Is there any viable possibility of this constitutional change in Iran?
Topic:: Governance, Constitution, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

478. Egypt and Israel: Renewable Energies for Peace

Author:: Ofir Winter
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: Egypt’s intense preparations for the international climate conference that it will host in Sharm el-Sheikh were evident at the World Youth Forum that met there this past January. Many of the conference sessions were devoted to the climate issue, which is currently challenging the international system in general, and Egypt in particular. Cairo’s goal to serve as a regional hub for gas and renewable energies presents an opportunity for increased cooperation between Egypt and Israel – particularly at a time that Europe is confronted with the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

479. A Rising and Falling Alarm: A Strategy for a Joint Exercise in the Home Front Command

Author:: Liron Donnell
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The incoming chief of staff of the Home Front Command responds to an article by INSS researcher Meir Elran. She contends that contrary to the claim that the national home front exercise held this past November realized only part of its potential, the exercise in fact met all of its goals and saw many solid achievements. Moreover, the criticism of the event addressed issues that cannot be resolved in a single exercise
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

480. Hezbollah's Efforts to Restore its Domestic Standing: The Israeli Card

Author:: Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:: The launch of a drone into Israeli territory this past February was yet another offensive cognitive activity by Hezbollah, intended to mask its deteriorating situation – in the domestic arena, stemming from the growing criticism of the organization in advance of the coming elections, scheduled for May, and vis-à-vis Israel, given its difficulty to maintain the “deterrence equation” that it defined. Jerusalem should expect additional acts of this sort, while preparing for a future situation in which the attacks become a security threat
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

481. The Yemen War in Numbers: Saudi Escalation and U.S. Complicity

Author:: Annelle Sheline
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Yemen’s humanitarian crisis demonstrates the consequences and risks of the American decision to enable Saudi and Emirati military action against Yemen. This decision reflects a flawed calculus: the belief that by supporting Arab security partners, the U.S. can prevent them from moving into China’s or Russia’s orbit. As recent events have demonstrated, America’s partners in the Middle East are hedging despite the Biden administration’s extensive support: For example, when the U.N. Security Council voted in February to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UAE abstained. America’s Gulf partners hope to strengthen their relationships with Moscow and Beijing while continuing to reap the benefits of Washington’s largesse. • American involvement in supporting Saudi-led military action against the Houthis in Yemen, rather than helping to resolve the conflict as the Biden administration claims, is prolonging and escalating the violence. By continuing to support Saudi and Emirati aggression, the U.S. not only deepens its complicity in the slaughter of Yemen’s civilian population; it also risks getting dragged into more active participation in the war on behalf of these two Arab security partners. • Biden committed to ending support for offensive operations in Yemen. His administration alleges that the support America provides to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is merely defensive. Yet by selling weapons it designates as defensive, as well as servicing contracts for spare parts and maintenance for the Saudi air force, the U.S. actively helps the coalition wage its war. Further, this position ignores the billions of dollars in offensive weapons the U.S. previously sold to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which they continue to use on Yemen. The administration asserts that the U.S. must help Saudi Arabia and the UAE defend against transborder attacks; yet the data show that Houthi transborder attacks pose a minor threat to the Saudis and Emiratis, especially compared with the scale of their attacks on Yemen. • Instead of escalating U.S. involvement in defending the Saudis and Emiratis from the consequences of their aggression, the Biden administration should suspend all arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE until they end their military intervention in Yemen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

482. Ending Primacy to End U.S. Wars

Author:: Daniel Bessner
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • If America’s decision-makers are to learn from the Iraq War (2003–11), they must recognize it not as an aberration or an isolated mistake, but as a direct consequence of the U.S. search for primacy in the Middle East. The Iraq War was overdetermined in that tensions between the U.S. and Iraq were rooted fundamentally in Iraq’s perceived challenge to U.S. regional dominance. Consequently, in the “unipolar moment,” a U.S. effort to change the regime in Baghdad was bound to occur after some spark, such as the September 11 attacks, set it in motion. • Today, a similar desire to sustain dominance in Asia places the U.S. on a collision course with China. To avoid war with China, policy elites must reconceive their commitment to primacy and recognize that the United States will not be able to dictate terms in its relations with others in an emergent multipolar world. • Some competition between the United States and China is probably inevitable. But this competition does not present an existential threat to the U.S. and therefore must not be allowed to prevent necessary cooperation to address the major threats of the 21st century: inequality, population movements, pandemics, and climate change.
Topic:: War, History, Hegemony, Military Intervention, and Gulf War
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

483. Toward a Paradigm Shift in Humanitarian Response: Centering Women and Girls in Integrated Health and Protection Services in Syria

Author:: Amany Qaddour
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: While regional instability and upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa may have foreshadowed the complexity and longevity of the crisis that would unfold in Syria in 2011, few anticipated it would exceed ten years, amounting to 6.8 million refugees across the world and 14.6 million people in need of hu- manitarian assistance within the country.1 The crisis has been defined by mass displacements, with large swaths of the population uprooted from their homes and forced to reside in camps and precarious housing; sieges in Aleppo City and Eastern Ghouta; chemical weapons attacks in Khan Shaykhoun and Douma; infectious disease outbreaks, including polio and cholera; food insecurity, notably among children and infants; a rise in persons with disabilities; persecution of aid workers; and both systematic and indiscriminate aerial bombardment of civilian infrastructure—namely hospitals, schools, and marketplaces.
Topic:: Health, Women, Syrian War, Girls, Humanitarian Response, and Protection
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

484. Overcoming Barriers to Poverty Alleviation in the Arab Region

Author:: Khalid Abu-Ismail and Vladimir Hlasny
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Many Arab countries have been living beyond their means. Following years of high spending without developing a solid revenue base or adequate emergency reserves, public debt levels have skyrocketed, and governments’ balance sheets have struggled to cope with waves of crises and their required responses. Private debt levels have also grown amid chronic economic stagnation, worsening cur- rent account deficits, and absent effective public assistance during recent crises.
Topic:: Poverty, Inequality, Economy, Protection, and Income
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa

485. Afghanistan Under Taliban: A new Regime Poses a Threat to International Stability

Author:: Valeri Modebadze
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The purpose of this study was to see whether the Taliban regime poses a threat to the international community. The research primarily examined the threats that the formation of a theocratic regime in Afghanistan poses to neighboring countries and the international community. With regards to research methods, a document analysis method was used to obtain valid information and to analyze and describe the complex situation in Afghanistan. A wide array of documents and scholarly articles were analyzed to obtain reliable and objective information. This research revealed that the Taliban has not changed at all and still rules Afghanistan with medieval methods and strategies. Since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the economic situation has deteriorated considerably and people face severe hardship. Therefore, hundreds of thousands of Afghans want to leave their homeland and migrate to the West. The Taliban violates constantly human rights and discriminates against women, ethnic and religious minorities. The Taliban has transformed Afghanistan into a narco-state. Neighboring countries fear that Afghanistan might become a hotbed of terrorism and extremism again.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, Taliban, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

486. Scope and Limitations of Soft Power Diplomacy: A Quantitative Analysis of Afghans' Perceptions about India

Author:: Mohammad Reyaz and Sabir Ahamed
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Before the Taliban came back to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, India and Afghanistan had cordial bilateral relations and were often described as great friends. Since 2002, India had helped build several infrastructure projects as part of its promised development assistance program of over $2 billion (later increased to $3 billion). Considering India’s investments in Afghanistan, the goodwill it enjoyed among common Afghans was understandable. However, it would be wrong to imply that these unique, multifaceted bilateral relations between the two countries were simply due to India's helping hand. This research paper is one of its kind attempt to explain the perceptions Afghans had about India based on the field survey done in Afghanistan in 2019. Using responses of over 321 Afghan participants, the paper attempts to quantitatively analyze the goodwill and positive vibes that India enticed among Afghans. However, many Afghans felt that India did not do enough during the crisis in August 2021. Based on the survey and the general perceptions of Afghans in the aftermath of the return of the Taliban, this paper argues that the soft power investments in Afghanistan helped India in its nation-branding, making it attractive and creating goodwill. However, New Delhi lacked the will to act smartly and hence did not get the desired strategic influences due to ‘soft power behavior’.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, India, and Asia

487. Iran's Nuclear Policy: Nature, Ambition, and Strategy

Author:: Violet B. Eneyo, Jihad Talib, Frank Mbeh Attah, and Eric Etim Offiong
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons represent the biggest danger to humanity. During the Cold War, the US and USSR provided ‘umbrella protection’ to convince allies not to acquire nuclear weapons. Most ‘newly’ independent nations never had such security during the Cold War since they were not part of a power bloc. During the Iran-Iraq conflict (1980-1988), the Islamic Republic of Iran was attacked with chemical weapons. Since Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian exile organization, exposed Iran's hidden nuclear program in 2002, the topic has gained worldwide attention. Iran's nuclear agenda has produced a worldwide catastrophe despite its NPT membership. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful and respects Islamic values. Most US politicians and academics consider Iran a rough nation with political and strategic concerns, including regional hegemony, human rights, terrorism, WMD proliferation, and military operations beyond the border. This study examines Iran's nuclear policies to demonstrate its essence, goal, and strategy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Chemical Weapons, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

488. The Legal Role of Government in Protecting Cultural Heritage and Archaeological Sites in the War-Affected Countries: The Case of Iraq and Syria

Author:: Rukhsar Ahmad
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Conserving cultural heritage and archaeological sites have become a serious national concern in the Middle East for the war-affected countries, including Iraq and Syria. Because looting and violence have caused massive destruction of cultural heritage and archaeological sites, this study aimed to analyze the legal background concerning the protection of cultural heritage and archaeological sites in the context of Iraq and Syria during 2014 with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This study used the content analysis method and cross-country analyses for Iraq and Syria. The study is guided by two main questions: What is the government's legal role in protecting cultural heritage and archaeological sites? Are there any legal authorities in Iraq and Syria to protect cultural heritage and archaeological sites during war and conflict? In the end, this paper suggests that protecting cultural heritage is the legal responsibility of government which is supposed to be enforced in the legal foundation of the state as a national sovereign power.
Topic:: War, Governance, Culture, Legal Theory, Heritage, and Archaeology
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

489. A Saudi-Pakistani Reset: Business as Usual?

Author:: Joshua Albin Cheyaden
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: “Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are back on track,” declared ʿAli ʿAwadh ʿAsseri, a former Saudi ambassador to Pakistan, following Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s state visit to Riyadh in May 2021.[1] Khan’s visit ended a two-year diplomatic rift that had marred a close relationship spanning seven decades.[2] The Pakistani Prime Minister’s visit reopened vital channels of communication that had been shut for almost a year and signaled a “reset” in Saudi-Pakistani relations.[3] The rift between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia began in 2019 and peaked in 2020, while the year 2021 was marked by calls for a reset in their relations.[4] Saudi Arabia’s deepening ties with India remain at the heart of the Saudi-Pakistani split, and they are unlikely to change despite any presumptive diplomatic reset between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s increasing engagement with India as a key energy client is just one aspect of a broader transformation the Kingdom is experiencing under Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.[5] At the same time, Pakistan is in a deep economic crisis and is looking for foreign investment in major infrastructure projects to generate employment in the country.[6] In 2021, Pakistan declared its intention to pursue a foreign policy guided by its focus on economic security over its geopolitical interests.[7] Therefore, the long-term prospects for the Saudi-Pakistani reset depends on Pakistan’s ability to accept Saudi Arabia’s more even-handed India-Pakistan policy and the Saudis’ willingness to invest in an economic partnership with Pakistan.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Saudi Arabia

490. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America

491. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – Part I

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on September 15, 2020. On the same day, Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations.” Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have progressed speedily, with many more issue-specific agreements signed and economic relations with the Emirates burgeoning. The Negev Conference on March 28, 2022, which was attended by the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. This paper will address recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. that impact the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in relations between the two states.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE

492. Is there anything new in Mansour Abbas’ declaration concerning the “Jewish State”?

Author:: Arik Rudnitzky
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The current issue of Bayan includes two articles that discuss the ideological and political characteristics of the Ra’am party, which is the political arm of the Islamic Movement, headed by Mansour Abbas. Dr. Arik Rudnitzky's article examines the declaration by Abbas regarding the Jewish State from a historical point of view.
Topic:: Politics, History, Ideology, Arabs, and Mansour Abbas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

493. “The New Way”: The Key to Understanding Ra’am’s Strategy

Author:: Michael Milshtein
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The current issue of Bayan includes two articles that discuss the ideological and political characteristics of the Ra’am party, which is the political arm of the Islamic Movement, headed by Mansour Abbas. Dr. Michael Milshtein's article analyses Ra’am’s political strategy, which is referred to as “The New Way”.
Topic:: Politics, Ideology, Islamism, Political Parties, and Mansour Abbas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

494. First year of the coalition: The situation of the Arab parties and the balance of power between them

Author:: Rany Hasan
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The current issue of Bayan is being published more than a year after the Knesset elections. For the first time in Arab politics in Israel, one party (United Arab List, Ra'am) joined the government coalition while another party (Joint Arab List) stays in the opposition. In his article, Rany Hasan examines the dynamics and relations between the two parties in recent years, and the balance of power between them, one year after the elections.
Topic:: Politics, Minorities, Elections, Political Parties, and Arabs
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

495. Understanding political violence in Jerusalem

Author:: Eran Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The current issue of Bayan is being published a few months after the tension in Jerusalem surrounding the Holy Esplanade / al-Aqsa Mosque. In his article, Dr. Eran Tzidkiyahu examines the roots of the religious and national tension on the Holy Esplanade in Jerusalem from a historical perspective and surveys the waves of violence between Jews and Palestinians during the last hundred years.
Topic:: Political Violence, Religion, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

496. Solemeini’s Revenge from Cyberspace: A Blatant Escalation

Author:: Moshe Kwiat
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of BeeHive, Moshe Kwiat analyzes the cyber attacks and social media campaigns targeting Israel in the anniversary of Qasem Suleimani’s death.
Topic:: Social Media, Qassem Soleimani, Cyberspace, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

497. Fear and awe on the way to Baalbek

Author:: Moran Levanoni
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of BeeHive Moran Levanoni explores the political and social impact of the Lebanese TV series “Al-Hayba”.
Topic:: Politics, Media, Drugs, and Society
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

498. The Distinction between Anti-Semitism & Anti-Zionism in the Eyes of American Muslim Preachers

Author:: Elad Ben David
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Bee Hive, Elad Ben David explores the views on Judaism and Zionism among Muslim preachers in the United States.
Topic:: Islam, Social Media, Judaism, Zionism, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

499. Hizballah’s Narrative in the Service of Legitimizing Military Action

Author:: Shay Jovany
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In August issue of Beehive, Shay Jovany analyzes the online narrative regarding the "Karish" gas field dispute as developed by Hizballah.
Topic:: Gas, Social Media, Hezbollah, Disputes, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

500. Syria’s Wheat Crisis

Author:: Jesse Weinberg
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In September issue of Beehive, Jesse Weinberg analyses the food crisis in Syria.
Topic:: Agriculture, Social Media, Syrian War, Food Crisis, and Wheat
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS