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3181. Jerusalem is the Test of US leadership in the Middle East

Author:
Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Arab League’s Chairman, Ahmed Abul Gheit, has warned President Trump that recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital would do a disservice to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as well as ignite violence in the Middle-East. Given the absence of a peace process and given the abundance of violence in the Middle-East, Mr. Aboul-Gheit’s warning does not even pass the laughing test. Far from inflaming the region, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital would actually send a sobering message to the Arab world: that the time of historical denial is over, and that Israel is being retributed for being the only country in the region that protects the holy sites of all faiths.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Religion, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

3182. Trump’s Commendable Defiance on Jerusalem

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Palestinians and the Europeans brought Trump’s Jerusalem declaration on themselves by running an ugly campaign of denialism and denigration against Israel. Their brazen persistence in delegitimizing the Jewish People’s historic roots and rights in Jerusalem led to this defiant and ultimately honorable result: a re-assertion of reality.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Diaspora, Territorial Disputes, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, North America, and United States of America

3183. Skeptical of the Saudis

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should not bear-hug the problematic Saudis, nor fall prey to over-enthusiastic fantasies. Don’t assume that MBS is the answer to Israel’s prayers in facing-down Iran. Don’t expect overt Saudi peace overtures to Israel, and beware inevitable demands for down-payments to the Palestinians as the up-front price for lukewarm Saudi openness to Israel.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Spring, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

3184. Greeting Vice President Pence

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
After recognizing Jerusalem, America’s next move should be banishing the EU from regional diplomacy.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, European Union, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, North America, and United States of America

3185. Countdown to a Conflict

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The increasing rocket fire from Gaza at Israel reflects a tragic reality in which neither Israel nor the Palestinians want a confrontation, but both sides may be helpless to stop it. Meanwhile, the Islamic world will not really support the Palestinians.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

3186. In Middle East, Pence must address realities of Iranian encroachment

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
If the United States wants to disengage from the Middle East it should do so with a bang. The address for such a forceful demonstration is clear: the Iranian nuclear program.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

3187. Erdogan’s Israel Obsession

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
While Israel cannot let Turkish President Erdogan’s attacks slide, its response must differentiate between Turkish society and its popular but problematic leader.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

3188. İbrahim Fazıl Pelin’in Hayatı ve İlm-İ İktisad Dersleri Kitabı Üzerine

Author:
Kenan Göçer and Cem Çetin
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Mülkiye Mektebi’nin maliye hocalarından İbrahim Fazıl Pelin (1886-1944), iktisat ve maliye dersleri vermiş ve bu alanda ders notları dâhil hayli kitap yazmıştır. Çağdaşı Mehmed Cavid Bey ile pek çok ortak noktaya sahip oluşu dikkat çekmektedir. Selaniklidir, iktisatçıdır ve liberal iktisadi görüşlere sahiptir. İstanbul Üniversitesi’nde hocalık yaptığı sırada, Hukuk Mektebi birinci sınıf öğrencileri için hazırlanan İlm-i İktisad Dersleri, 1914 tarihinde kitap olarak yayınlanmıştır. Kitap ile ders notları arası bir yerde duran eserin başlangıç kısımları, iktisadi düşünce tarihine ayrılmıştır. Bugün için bile pek tanınmayan Fransız ve İngiliz iktisatçılara yapılan atıflar ve ayrıntılı bilgilerle zenginleşmiş kitabın akıcı bir üslûba sahip olduğu aşikârdır.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Science and Technology, and History
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3189. Türkiye Ekonomisi: Bardağın Dolu Tarafına Bakmak

Author:
M. Kemal Aydın
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Tarihsel analizler, Türkiye Ekonomisinin en temel sorununun dış açık olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kalkınma girişimlerini kesintiye uğratan bu sorunu aşmak için 1980’li yılların başında ithal ikameci büyüme modeli terk edilerek ihracata dönük büyüme modeli benimsenmiştir. 1980’li yılların sonuna doğru bu modelin sürdürülebilir olmadığının görülmesi üzerine, 1990’lı yılların başından itibaren yüksek faiz ve düşük kur beklentisine odaklı kısa vadeli sermaye girişlerinin [portföy yatırımları] uyaracağı tüketim talebine dayandırılmış yeni bir büyüme modeli hayata geçirilmiştir. Ne var ki bu model, iktisadi yapının kırılganlığını artırarak 1994, 2000 ve 2001 yıllarında ağır finansal krizler yaşanmasına sebep olmuştur. 2001 Krizi’nin ardından mali disiplin, sıkı para politikası ve bankacılık reformu temelinde kurgulanmış bir program izlenerek yeni bir büyüme dalgası yakalanmıştır. Bu dönemde enflasyonun denetim altına alındığı, bütçeden yapılan faiz ödemelerin azaldığı, devletin borçlanma gereğinin ve toplam borç yükünün hafiflediği görülmektedir. Diğer taraftan 2005’den itibaren doğrudan yatırım girişlerinin keskin bir biçimde artmaya başlaması ile birlikte dış açık’ın finansmanında kısa vadeli sermaye girişlerine duyulan ihtiyaç azalmıştır. Bütün bu gelişmeler sayesinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, 2008’de vuku bulan Küresel Finans Krizi’ni minimum hasar ile atlatmayı başarmıştır. Bu krizin bir sonucu olarak 2008 ve 2009 yıllarında hafif bir sarsıntı geçiren Türkiye Ekonomisi [işsizlik ve dış açık sorunlarını henüz çözememiş olmakla birlikte] 2010’dan itibaren hızlı bir biçimde toparlanmıştır.
Topic:
Government, Financial Crisis, Budget, and Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3190. Türkiye'de Terör ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım: Saklı Eşbütünleşme ve Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkisi.

Author:
Mehmet Zeki Ak and Veysel Inal
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de terörizm ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasındaki ilişkiler eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleriyle, 1980-2015 dönemi için incelenmiştir. Seriler arasındaki ilişkiler, mevcut literatür-den farklı olarak önce Hatemi-J ve Irandoust (2012) tarafından geliştirilen, saklı eşbütünleşme yaklaşımıyla incelenmiştir. Bu analiz sonucunda terörizm ve doğrudan yatırımlar arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Daha sonra, seriler arasındaki asimetrik neden-sellik ilişkileri Hatemi-J (2012) yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Bu analiz sonucunda ise literatürdeki mevcut çalışmaların bulgularına ters düşecek biçimde terör eylemleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bütün bu bulgular birlikte değerlendirildiğinde, Türkiye özelinde terörist saldırıların doğrudan yabancı yatırım davranışlarını etkilemediği sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.
Topic:
Terrorism, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3191. Nuclear Infrastructure and Proliferation Risks of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Egypt

Author:
Sarah Burkhard, Erica Wenig, David Albright, and Andrea Stricker
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Apart from Saudi Arabia, which our Institute views as currently the largest proliferation risk in the Middle East, three key neighbors of Iran also warrant intensive study as to their nuclear capabilities and plans, safeguards and obstacles to proliferation, and future proliferation risks. After Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and Egypt are seen by the Institute as states in the Middle East most poised to seek advanced nuclear capabilities in response to a resurgent nuclear Iran, or as the limitations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) conclude or otherwise end. Egypt has the most experience of the three in working with nuclear materials and facilities under efforts dating back decades. Turkey may pose the greatest risk as far as surprise proliferation given the state of political affairs in that country and growing impulse of President Erdogan to consolidate power. The UAE, which was the first Middle Eastern country to adopt a so-called “gold standard” of renouncing enrichment and reprocessing, will be a country to watch for reversing course on its pledge. Each of these countries has varying security concerns with regard to Iran, and each has nuanced domestic goals that could propel proliferation attempts. A common recommendation for all three countries is that the United States and its allies should seek strong defensive relationships with those countries potentially affected by the end of JCPOA limits; others include the United States should work to prevent the spread of enrichment and reprocessing capabilities in the region and use national intelligence and diplomatic capabilities to detect and work to reverse proliferation if it emerges. A summary of findings on each country follows, with a technical look at their emerging nuclear capabilities and plans, the security context with regard to Iran, status of their safeguards and obstacles to proliferation, and recommendations for preventing the spread of advanced nuclear capabilities in the region.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Infrastructure, Nuclear Power, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

3192. Strengthening the Counter-Illicit Nuclear Trade Regime in the Face of New Threats: A Two-Year Review of Proliferation Threats Associated with the Middle East

Author:
David Albright, Andrea Stricker, Sarah Burkhard, and Erica Wenig
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
The United States’ and associated global export control regime is losing ground due to several global events and trends underway in the United States and the Middle East. The developments at home and abroad are reducing controls and oversight over the flow of commodities vital to the development of nuclear weapons. Unless these trends are reversed, U.S. efforts to stem and stop nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and elsewhere will weaken. Events contributing to this greater proliferation danger include: 1) relaxed U.S. export control regulations and greater emphasis on global trade with streamlined exchange of intellectual property and commodities, including nuclear commodities; 2) on-going questions over the strong regulation of sensitive trade to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs; and 3) the expected actions of additional states to obtain nuclear capabilities to counterbalance Iran. This report provides findings from four studies that were part of a two-year Institute for Science and International Security review which identified threats to the United States’ and interconnected global export control regime and actions to take now to mitigate damages. The review found that U.S. policy goals should include strong efforts to restrict the flow of sensitive technologies to the Middle East where proliferation and security concerns are currently high. This includes examining its own export control reforms and repairing new or ongoing deficiencies that contribute to the spread of sensitive military or other technologies. It should work to negotiate or otherwise impose the extension of limitations on Iran’s nuclear program in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), since the legitimization of Iran’s advanced nuclear program exacerbates proliferation concerns. It should counter illicit nuclear and missile trade in the Middle East and elsewhere, which could support nuclear weapons development. The United States should affirm its strong defensive commitment to allies such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and Egypt, while working against their development or import of advanced fuel cycle capabilities. The United States should also support the implementation of strong controls and transparency measures in the Middle East to ensure that burgeoning civilian nuclear programs remain peaceful, such as commitments not to enrich or reprocess, implementation of the Additional Protocol, and provision of secure, lifetime fuel supplies for nuclear reactors. It should monitor via national intelligence capabilities any concerning research or imports by Middle East nations that could signify proliferation intentions, and use all available diplomatic or coercive means to prevent additional nuclear proliferation. Finally, the United States and its allies should work to reduce Middle East security tensions and develop threat reduction efforts more broadly.
Topic:
Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, Trade, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Middle East

3193. Cobalt 60 Sources in Mosul: Recovery and Lessons for the Future

Author:
Institute for Science and International Security
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Two years ago, in the summer of 2015, the Institute decided to investigate whether Daesh controlled dangerous radioactive material in Iraq or Syria. The result of a few months of study by Sarah Burkhard, a young scientist, and other staff surprised us all. Their investigations found that there were apparently two sources of radioactive cobalt in Mosul that posed a risk of being used in a radiological dispersal device. We could not know if Daesh was aware of these sources and their potential, or had already taken possession of them. We produced a confidential research study that we used to alert the United States and other friendly governments of the situation as we knew it, most of which were also monitoring the situation. At the same time, we decided not to publish any of our results. As we learned more, we updated our study, which remains a confidential report due to its sensitivity. We are very relieved that these two, older albeit still dangerous, cobalt 60 sources were not found and used by Daesh. They were recovered intact recently. We want to thank in particular Joby Warrick at The Washington Post, who we had alerted early on for assistance in researching the fate of these sources. He understood the importance of digging into this story while delaying its publication until the radioactive sources were in safe hands. He and his colleagues at The Washington Post recently added greatly to this important story.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Mosul

3194. The plight of Palestinian refugees in Syria in the camps south of Damascus

Author:
Metwaly Abo Naser
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
After they took refuge in Syria after the 1948 war, Palestinians refugees were treated in the same way as other Syrian citizens. Permitted to fully participate in the economic and social life of Syrian society, they had the same civic and economic rights and duties as Syrians, except that they could neither be nominated for political office nor participate in elections. This helped them to feel that they were part of Syrian society, despite their refugee status and active role in the global Palestinian liberation struggle against the Israeli occupation of their homeland. At the start of the anti-government movement in Syria, when the peaceful uprising against the Assad regime turned into an armed conflict, the inhabitants of most Palestinian refugee camps tried to remain neutral. But as the conflict grew more violent and regional alliances changed, the disparities and significant differences between the Palestinian factions, especially between Hamas and Fatah, led to divisions in their positions vis-à-vis the Assad regime. These divisions were enhanced by the reduction of the role of the Palestinian diaspora in the struggle against the Israeli occupation and the new relevance of the geographic location of Palestinian refugee camps in the growing Syrian conflict. This was particularly true for the camps south of Damascus, because they separated the area west of Damascus from East Ghouta, both of which were opposition strongholds. These divisions resulted in the camps becoming targets in the armed conflict, leading to their bombardment and blockade, and the displacement of many of their residents to Lebanon, Turkey, Europe, and other locations both inside and outside Syria.
Topic:
Refugee Issues, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

3195. Dilemmas and experiences of international support for inclusive peacebuilding

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The issue of inclusive peacebuilding has moved up the international agenda in recent years. There is now unprecedented policy-level commitment among the international community to promote inclusion in conflict-affected contexts; growing evidence of the importance of inclusion for sustainable peace and development; emerging lessons on best approaches for promoting inclusion; and a recognition among international actors of the need to learn from past weaknesses in this area. This report examines the current policy context for providing international support to inclusive peacebuilding. It identifies how international actors can strengthen their efforts to promote inclusion by learning from previous experience and drawing on new knowledge and approaches. It goes on to look at how international actors have supported inclusion in three very different conflict-affected contexts, Afghanistan, Somalia and Nepal, and asks how international actors have engaged on issues of inclusion in these contexts, what factors shaped this engagement, and what the results have been.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Nepal, and Somalia

3196. Economic Freedom and Mass Migration: Evidence from Israel

Author:
Benjamen Powell
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The economic case for free immigration is nearly identical to the case for free trade. They both rely on a greater division of labor based on comparative advantage to ensure that allowing the free movement of goods and services or the free movement of people results in greater global wealth. Estimates of the global gains that could be achieved by the global adoption of an open immigration policy are massive, ranging from 50 to 150 percent of world GDP (Clemens 2011). Even a migration of just 5 percent of the world’s poor to wealthier countries would boost world GDP by more than could be gained by completely eliminating all remaining trade barriers to goods, services, and capital flows (Clemens 2011).
Topic:
Economics and Immigration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

3197. Jihad in Russian

Author:
Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
While Russia’s military involvement in the war in Syria has received great attention, less focus has been directed at the foreign fighters from Russia and other post-Soviet states who have joined the Islamic State and other Jihadist groups. The emergence of these Jihadists has been a gradual process, which began in the 1990s, and it has now led to a situation where an estimated 7,000 Russians and 3,000 Central Asians are fighting in Syria. These figures present a challenge for the various states fighting the Jihadist groups, but they pose a much greater problem for the Russian and other national authorities, who will have to handle the fighters, when they return home.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

3198. Migrants, Housewives, Warriors or Sex Slaves: AQ’s and the Islamic State’s Perspectives on Women

Author:
Andrea Sjøberg Aasgaard
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Why do young Muslim women from the whole world join the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq, despite the fact that the group is notorious for conducting terrible sexual violations against women? Through comparing how al-Qaeda (AQ) and IS are positioning women in their ideological literature, this article sheds light on IS’ appeal to women. This is interesting, as AQ in a historical perspective only attracted a handful of European women to physically join the group. The comparison highlights that AQ and IS position women in different ways: as housewives, migrants, warriors and sex slaves. Both groups’ ideologies agree that a woman’s primarily role is to be a housewife and mother, and exclude in principle women from the battlefield. However, only IS is emphasizing that Muslim women have a right and duty to migrate to its territory. Through using ideological arguments in its literature, IS convinces its supporters that it is a religious duty to enslave women the group defines as idolaters. For this reason, IS’ brutality against non-Muslim women will not discourage its female supporters from joining the group.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Migration, Sex Trafficking, Islamic State, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

3199. NATO, Cooperative Security, and the Middle East – Status and Prospects

Author:
Hakan Akbulut
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This report consists of three parts: The first part offers a brief introduction into the topic of NATO partnerships in general and ICI more specifically. The second part compiles three papers presented at the workshop on the preferences, perspectives, and policies of Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) relating to cooperation with NATO. The third part summarizes the presentations of all workshop participants and accompanying discussions without making any explicit attributions as the event was held under Chatham House Rule. All speakers participated in the workshop in a personal capacity and expressed exclusively their personal views and assessment. Moreover, as this summary incorporates all different views expressed, a participant will unlikely endorse all arguments to be found herein.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Bahrain, Oman, and UAE

3200. Islamic State Enters Al-Qaeda’s Old Hotbed: Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Mona Kanal Sheikh
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The Islamic State (IS) movement has opened a new chapter in the Afpak region, changing the landscape of militant movements in the area. This article looks at the patterns of rivalry and collaboration between the Islamic State on one side and Al-Qaeda and Taliban-related movements on the other. It also surveys the way Al-Qaeda has developed during the past years where most of the international attention has been devoted to the formation of IS in Iraq/Syria, and shows that Al-Qaeda is still active, though it has become more locally oriented. Finally, the article looks at the prospects for the further expansion of IS especially in Pakistan where, on one side, a range of sectarian anti-Shia movements that resonate with parts of the IS agenda while, on the other side, there is no ideological tradition for embracing the kind of caliphate-jihadism that the IS advocates.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria