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21. Amérique latine. Political Outlook 2012

Author:
Mélanie Albaret, Hélène Combes, Olivier Compagnon, Olivier Dabène, Lorenza Belinda Fontana, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Charles-André Goulet, Nordin Lazreg, Kevin Parthenay, Gustavo Pastor, Thomas Posado, Darío Rodriguez, Camila Minerva Rodriguez Tavárez, and Jérôme Sgard
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Le Political Outlook 2012 de l’Amérique latine est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site internet www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clefs de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes. Des informations complémentaires à cette publication sont disponibles sur le site.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Markets, Political Economy, Politics, History, Finance, Regional Integration, and Memory
Political Geography:
South America, Cuba, Latin America, Bolivia, and El Salvador

22. The Catholic Church, Elections and Democracy In Colombia, 1830–1930

Author:
Eduardo Posada-Carbó
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
By focusing on its electoral role, this paper revises some of the prevailing views regarding the Catholic Church's impact on the politics of Colombia between 1830 and 1930. To this aim, the paper offers a brief general overview of the Church during the period, in an attempt to locate its sources of power. Then, I look at the place the religious cleavage had in the formation of the party system that emerged in the republic by the mid-nineteenth century. Next, I examine the various ways in which the Church was involved in the electoral process both before and after the emergence of the party system. Finally, the concluding section considers the wider implications that such involvement might have represented for the history of democracy in Colombia. Overall, the paper addresses the following questions: What had the historical role of the Catholic Church been in the politics of Colombia since independence? How did the Church—the hierarchy, the clergy and the laity—relate to the electoral history and partisan divisions of the country? And to what extent did the involvement of the Church in electioneering enhance or hinder the process of democratization over this century?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

23. Elections in Latin America 2009–2011: A Comparative Analysis

Author:
Manuel Alcántara
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper addresses from a comparative perspective the national elections (legislative and presidential) held between 2009 and 2011 in seventeen Latin American countries. There are five key issues that guide this analysis: the institutional conditions of electoral competition, the electoral offer, election results, party systems, and post-electoral executive-legislative relations. The political consequences of these electoral processes—except perhaps in the cases of Honduras and Nicaragua, where some minor negative trends have arisen—reveal a pattern of apparent normality and political alternation, with a change in the presidential elite and winning proposals that were articulated via institutions. The paper concludes by outlining how countries in the region have successfully overcome challenges of a varying nature and importance, that until recently generated a degree of uncertainty in their respective political systems.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America, Nicaragua, and Honduras

24. Networked Justice: Judges, the Diffusion of Ideas, and Legal Reform Movements in Mexico

Author:
Matthew C. Ingram
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Existing research shows that the ideas of judges matter for judicial behavior both on the bench (decision making) and off the bench (lobbying and mobilization for institutional change). Yet there is little empirical evidence regarding the content and distribution of these ideas and even less evidence and fewer theoretical propositions regarding the manner in which ideas transfer or diffuse among judges. Addressing these empirical and theoretical gaps, I survey judges in the Mexican state of Michoacán and apply techniques of network analysis. The project makes four main contributions: (1) original data on the attitudes of judges regarding prominent institutional and jurisprudential changes shaping the legal landscape in Mexico; (2) egocentric data on network structure for the sampled judges; (3) sociocentric data on network structure at the level of judicial district, state supreme court, and entire state generated by aggregating the egocentric data; and (4) a mixed-methods analysis of the causal relationship between network features and judicial attitudes, drawing on egocentric methods, sociocentric methods, and personal interviews with focal individuals. Complementing literatures on political socialization, policy diffusion, and complex systems, the analysis clarifies our understanding of the role of judicial networks in strengthening democracy and the rule of law.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Political Economy, Governance, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

25. Political Unrest in Venezuela

Author:
Patrick D. Duddy
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young and energetic governor of the state of Miranda–– who enjoys multiparty support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent than earlier challengers.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

26. The Road to Universal Social Protection: How Costa Rica Informs Theory Juliana

Author:
Juliana Martínez Franzoni and Diego Sánchez-Ancochea
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
How are universal social programs built in countries on the periphery, where resources are more limited and initial inequalities higher than any ever seen in OECD countries? Historically it has been very difficult, and even those countries that committed themselves to serious welfare efforts did so with stratified, rather than universal, transfers and services. Yet there have been some exceptions, and Costa Rica ranks among the most successful. The bottom-up expansion of social security, along income/class rather than occupational lines, was very important in the creation of a basic floor of benefits among the low and low-middle salaried population. Gradually, the middle and upper-middle groups were later on brought on board as well, in sharp contrast with the rest of the region where social insurance was shaped for and according to the preferences of various middle-class groups.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Latin America

27. Sexual Violence and Justice in Postconflict Peru

Author:
Jelke Boesten and Melissa Fisher
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Wartime sexual violence in Peru is linked to peacetime gender inequality, which is strongly influenced by inequalities based on race and class. These inequalities perpetuate the exclusion of victim-survivors of sexual and gender-based violence in the country's current postconflict transitional justice period, subject victim-survivors to postconflict violence, and reinforce tolerance for sexual violence in peacetime. If the international community and the Peruvian government recognize and address these inequalities, then Peru may witness a reduction in sexual and gender-based violence. Wartime rape can involve a range of acts, motivations, meanings, perpetrators, and victims. Peruvian legal and social definitions of sexual violence need to be inclusive of such variations and recognize that the internal conflict produced victim-survivors among women, men, and children. Domestic institutions should stop dismissing rape as a common crime and start prosecuting rape in war as a crime against humanity, as Peru formally recognized when it signed the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Building on existing legislation would send signals to the international community and to victim-survivors of the war that Peru takes its citizens\' rights in both war and peace seriously. Sexual violence precedes and survives conflict, which creates a continuum of violence. National policies framed within an understanding of this continuum would be better able to guide international, nongovernmental, and community-based organizations operating in Peru regarding programs that address intimate partner and family violence. Such programs are essential for breaking cycles of violence. Reparations and criminal justice are tools of redress that recognize suffering, resilience, and citizenship. While Peru is currently using these tools, they do not seem to apply to victim-survivors of sexual and gender-based violence. An inclusive politics of justice would break through this historical marginalization.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

28. Dangerous Uncertainty ahead of Venezuela Elections

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Uncertainty over President Hugo Chávez's health adds to Venezuela's fragility in the run-up to October's presidential election. Amid deep polarisation, his illness overshadows the campaign, while the personalised nature of his rule, weakened institutions, and high levels of criminal violence bode ill for stability even beyond the polls. Brazen violation of the constitution would probably require army support, which not even the president can bank on; regional powers, too, would eye such action warily. But with much at stake, upheaval, even a violent political crisis, remain dangerous possibilities. Political leaders should condemn violence and pledge publicly to respect the constitution – whatever lies ahead. Venezuela's partners in the region should press for international observation and signal clearly they will not condone unconstitutional acts.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Economy, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

29. A Note on the Middle Class in Latin America

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) database provides information about the carbon dioxide emissions, electricity production, corporate ownership, and location of more than 60,000 power plants in over 200 countries. Originally launched in 2007, CARMA is provided freely to the public at www.carma.org and remains the only comprehensive data source of its kind. This paper documents the methodology underpinning CARMA v3.0, released in July, 2012. Comparison of CARMA model output with reported data highlights the general difficulty of precisely predicting annual electricity generation for a given plant and year. Estimating the rate at which a plant emits CO2 (per unit of electricity generated) generally faces fewer obstacles. Ultimately, greater disclosure of plant-specific data is needed to overcome these limitations, particularly in major emitting countries like China, Russia, and Japan. For any given plant in CARMA v3.0, it is estimated that the reported value is within 20 percent of the actual value in 85 percent of cases for CO2 intensity, 75 percent for annual CO2 emissions, and 45 percent for annual electricity generation. CARMA's prediction models are shown to offer significantly better estimates than more naïve approaches to estimating plant-specific performance.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, America, and Latin America

30. Challenges to Democracy Promotion: The Case of Bolivia

Author:
Jonas Wolff
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Bolivia offers a critical, but atypical, case for international democracy promotion. The ongoing political transformation initiated by President Evo Morales constitutes one of the few experiences in the world of a serious effort to build a democracy different from the existing Western liberal models. And this presents a significant challenge to democracy promotion efforts.
Topic:
Democratization and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Bolivia