Number of results to display per page
Search Results
772. A Call for a Unified Theoretical Approach to the Study of Migration: Network Analysis of International Migration System
- Author:
- Kristin Vandenbelt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The field of migration studies has long suffered from a weak theoretical base upon which to ground its work. This article proposes a new theoretical approach – network analysis of international migration systems – to serve as a unifying theory for the study of migration. This new approach seeks to combine the best elements of the compatible approaches of network theory and the migration systems. This will also allow scholars to engage in theoretically informed concept formation and variable identification, allowing for an interdisciplinary cumulation of knowledge, thereby allowing scholars to predict future migration flows and assist in making meaningful migration policy.
- Topic:
- Migration and International Relations Theory
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
773. The Economic Impact of Political Instability and Mass Civil Protest
- Author:
- Samer Matta, Michael Bleaney, and Simon Appleton
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- An extensive literature has examined the economic effects of non-violent political instability events. Nonetheless, the issue of whether economies react differently over time to such events remains largely unexplored. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability, we estimate the output effect of 38 regime crises in the period 1970-2011. A crucial factor is whether crises are accompanied by mass civil protest. In the crises accompanied by mass civil protest, there is typically an immediate fall in output which is never recovered in the subsequent five years. In crises unaccompanied by protest, there are usually no significant effects. Furthermore, this paper provides new evidence that regime crises (with and without mass civil protest) have heterogeneous (country-specific) effects on output per capita.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Regime Change, Political stability, Economic Growth, Protests, Economic Policy, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
774. Thinking Outside the Container: A Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Trade Flows
- Author:
- Vincent Stamer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Global container ship movements may reliably predict global trade flows. Aggregating both movements at sea and port call events produces a wealth of explanatory variables. The machine learning algorithm partial least squares can map these explanatory time series to unilateral imports and exports, as well as bilateral trade flows. Applying out-of-sample and time series methods on monthly trade data of 75 countries, this paper shows that the new shipping indicator outperforms benchmark models for the vast majority of countries. This holds true for predictions for the current and subsequent month even if one limits the analysis to data during the first half of the month. This makes the indicator available at least as early as other leading indicators.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Trade, Shipping, and Machine Learning
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
775. Restructuring Sovereign Bonds: Holdouts, Haircuts and the Effectiveness of CACs
- Author:
- Chuck Fang, Julian Schumacher, and Christoph Trebesch
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Sovereign debt crises are difficult to solve. This paper studies the “holdout problem”, meaning the risk that creditors refuse to participate in a debt restructuring. We document a large variation in holdout rates, based on a comprehensive new dataset of 23 bond restructurings with external creditors since 1994. We then study the determinants of holdouts and find that the size of creditor losses (haircuts) is among the best predictors at the bond level. In a restructuring, bonds with higher haircuts see higher holdout rates, and the same is true for small bonds and those issued under foreign law. Collective action clauses (CACs) are effective in reducing holdout risks. However, classic CACs, with bond-by-bond voting, are not sufficient to assure high participation rates. Only the strongest form of CACs, with single-limb aggregate voting, minimizes the holdout problem according to our simulations. The results help to inform theory as well as current policy initiatives on reforming sovereign bond markets.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, Law, and Credit
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
776. Climate Change and International Migration: The Role of Foreign Aid
- Author:
- Dennis Wesselbaum, Michael D. Smith, and Shannon N. Minehan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Global migration flows have increased over the last couple decades. Climate change is a key driver of these flows and will become more important in the future. Foreign aid programs, often intended to manage or even reduce these flows, are typically not large enough and lead to more rather than less migration.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, Environment, Migration, Foreign Aid, Displacement, Multilateralism, Peace, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
777. "Is the Internet Trying to Kill Us?" And other Technology Security Unknowns In the New Roaring Twenties
- Author:
- Miles Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Machines are poised to transform life as we know it... and America isn’t ready. A hundred years ago, machines remade the world. Society in the 1920s was transformed by a proliferation of cars, radios, movies, and airplanes, dramatically altering the way we lived, worked, and played. We did not know it then, but the sweeping technology revolution was poised to change the way we fought, too. The 1930s saw a revolution in military affairs as warfare became deadlier and faster-paced, a foreseeable consequence of the previous decade’s innovations.278 This nevertheless caught many nations by surprise, such as those affected by the German blitzkrieg. We are entering a New Roaring Twenties, and again we are unprepared for how it will affect national security in the decades to come. Make no mistake: today’s innovations will be tomorrow’s economic drivers, which is why we should be actively investing in the bleeding-edge tech of the future. But we must also be vigilant about how such developments will affect our security at home and reshape international conflict, or else risk a reordering of the global balance of power. This article previews several emerging technology dilemmas, what’s being done about them, and why—in some cases—it’s already too late.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
778. Data Science Teams: Evolution of the Full-Contact Sport
- Author:
- Colleen McCue and Brandon Daigle
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- No one today questions whether data science can confer competitive advantage to organizations effectively adopting these capabilities. Considerable attention has been paid to technology, talent, and training as organizations attempt to build data science programs in an effort to convert aspiration to practice; moving from simply counting and reporting what happened to datainformed prediction and prescription. As understanding of the various and specific data science roles has evolved, talent development, management, and leadership are emerging as new frontiers. Organizations now work to create data science capacity where effective and responsible use of advanced analytics makes the whole truly more than a sum of the parts. Organizations increasingly recognize data science as a “must have” capability and are scrambling to recruit and hire data science talent. Data literacy programs are also proliferating given growing empirical research demonstrating the importance of upskilling across the organization in order to optimize data science talent and efforts. At the same time, the community is moving away from the data science “unicorn” concept in favor of a data science ecosystem. This is built through aggregation and assembly of complementary data science skill sets in support of meaningful, scalable, and sustainable breadth and depth of capacity. The challenge many organizations now face is how to organize and manage this disparate yet complementary talent? While the data science Venn Diagram has become ubiquitous, recent analysis suggests we are actually looking at something with far greater complexity and depth– more akin to a data science “tapestry” where unique data science capabilities and roles are intricately interwoven across the enterprise.297 Although aesthetically appealing, the tapestry construct is inherently static. Experience increasingly suggests that fixed data science resource allocation constructs are inflexible and even brittle; breaking in response to rapid evolution or change. Moreover, fixed or otherwise inflexible organizational constructs may have limited capacity to adjust on the fly to address unanticipated challenges and opportunity alike. What is needed, therefore, is data science capacity that is relatively fluid, agile and dynamic. It should be able to rapidly pivot in response to changing conditions, including unforeseen shortcomings or failures, while also setting the conditions to fully capitalize on unexpected windfalls in support of true competitive advantage. With this evolving understanding of high-performing data teams, we propose that analytically competitive organizations actually operationalize data science as something closer to a full-contact team sport where no one rides the bench.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Leadership, Data, and Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
779. "Systemic Risks": A Conversation on Nuclear Technology and Deterrence with Dr. Vipin Narang
- Author:
- Dylan Land
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Fletcher Security Review (FSR): What do you perceive as the greatest threat to global nuclear security? Where do you see the greatest potential for the outbreak of nuclear war? Vipin Narang (VN): Rather than focusing on regions, I see three trends which I think we should be concerned about. One is the return of a great power arms race, and a lot of this was exacerbated in the Trump administration. Even as we head into the Biden administration—which extended the New START Treaty with Russia for five years—Russia and China are modernizing their nuclear forces at breakneck speed. They are worried primarily about U.S. missile defenses, which at this point are unconstrained. The United States has a variety of missile defense systems at the regional level which work pretty well, as well as the national missile defense system, which doesn’t…yet. You will often hear that the national missile defense system does not work very well and that is true—the success rate is around 60 percent in simulated tests. It may be difficult to ever get it to work perfectly or even well, but it is the prospect that the United States might get it to work that really drives modernization efforts in Russia and China.....
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Risk, Deterrence, and Interview
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Global Focus, and United States of America
780. Transitions in Global Health Diplomacy: Views of Donors During the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Cynthia Buckley, Ralph Clem, and Erik Herron
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Sickening and killing people worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting national and international economies and creating enormous human suffering. Current and future geopolitical implications are substantial, requiring long term attention by national security policymakers in the United States and elsewhere.245 Central among these foreign policy concerns is the capacity of states across the globe to deliver health care (and other services) to their populations and the role of health and human security in promoting national security.246 Prior to the pandemic, interest in Global Health Diplomacy (GHD) as a foreign policy tool was growing, reflecting the recognition of border crossing health concerns and the effectiveness of health-focused development aid. Health assistance provided through GHD enables improvements in the quality of life, expansion of infrastructure, and strong donor-recipient ties, each of which can contribute to recipient state capacity. Emerging impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic increase the importance of international health assistance.247 The value of health assistance in generating grassroots aid recognition, thereby capturing “hearts and minds,” is a potent means of building international recognition of both a state’s humanitarian mission and building a positive reputation in recipient state public opinion. In the American context, the four years of the Trump administration were marked by a decline in American bilateral and multilateral engagement in terms of GHD, specifically its stated intention to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO).248 Importantly, this coincided with a period of rising efforts in this area by China and Russia. These changes highlight the importance of understanding how changes in GHD participation emerge and enable stronger linkages between GHD studies and global rivalries (more common in the field of International Relations).249 We set out to explore how transitioning patterns of GHD engagement inform the positioning priorities of the United States, Russia, China, and multinational organizations such as the European Union. How have the acute health, economic, and in some cases political crises of the global COVID-19 pandemic altered donor engagement in GHD? What are the effects of changes in the perceptions of their engagement in recipient states? We incorporate data from three strategically important post-Soviet countries—Estonia, Ukraine, and the Republic of Georgia—to illustrate how major players in GHD are viewed on the ground. Situated on a long arc from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and beyond to the Caucasus, these states neighbor Russia proper. Proximity to Russia itself implies a core national security problem: Moscow has actively undermined the territorial integrity of Georgia and Ukraine, seizing parts of both via kinetic warfare while causing massive infrastructure damage (including healthcare infrastructure), thousands of deaths, and the internal displacement of millions.250 Estonia has been the target of cyberattacks emanating from Russia, and all three countries must cope with relentless disinformation campaigns intended to destabilize their governments and societies. These three cases provide insights into how citizens in recipient states view GHD engagement in a time of crisis.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Pandemic, COVID-19, Donors, and Global Health
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus