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1. Global Terrorism Index 2023

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains almost 66,000 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2022. In 2022, deaths from terrorism fell by nine per cent to 6,701 deaths and is now 38 per cent lower than at its peak in 2015. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the number of incidents, with attacks declining by almost 28 per cent from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022. However, if Afghanistan was removed from the index, terrorism deaths would have increased by four per cent. Afghanistan remained the country most impacted by terrorism for the fourth consecutive year, despite attacks and deaths falling by 75 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. The GTI does not include acts of state repression and violence by state actors and, as such, acts committed by the Taliban are no longer included in the scope of the report since they took control of the government.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

2. INFORMING GLOBAL HEALTH DIPLOMACY: EXAMINING HEALTH AND PEACE THROUGH THE LENS OF THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE

Author:
Tomislav Mestrovic, Driton Kuqi, and Goran Bandov
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
In this study, we aimed to examine the interconnectedness of health and peace, recognizing its significance within global health diplomacy, international relations, and human rights. For that purpose, we used the results from previous and ongoing Global Burden of Disease studies, which represent a comprehensive systematic appraisal of health problems and risks affecting populations worldwide. This paper could use its methodological underpinnings to analyze the impact of war, conflict, and terrorism on mortality and overall human health. In 2000, war and conflict were responsible for an estimated 310,000 deaths globally, compared to 2019, when this number decreased to 69,000. Recent findings reinforced the association between war, conflict, and increased all-cause mortality. Interpersonal violence also significantly contributed to human health loss resulting from disrupted peace. In Europe, disability-adjusted life years due to injury – including those caused by conflict – declined between 2000 and 2019. As we prioritize global health, peace-building initiatives, and global health diplomacy, big data will increasingly play a substantial role in accurately predicting and describing the health effects related to conflicts.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Terrorism, Conflict, Peace, and Disease
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. The global terrorist threat forecast in 2023

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The article presents three significant developments in the global terrorism landscape: Far-right terrorism, the growth of al Qaeda, with Taliban patronage from Afghanistan, and the persistence of the Islamic State as the most dominant threat in the world despite the successive decapitation of its leadership The article notes the importance in this context of political Islam and the spread of "jihadist" doctrines both from the Gulf and from conflict zones supplanting traditional and local Islam. The article also notes the potential impact of the radical environmental movement and the growing problem of the use of violence by other radical groups.
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Far Right, and Political Islam
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, and Global Focus

4. El terrorismo no se compagina con el nihilismo

Author:
Eduardo Hodge Dupré
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article discusses an idea that has been promoted by several scholars in recent decades, namely the possible relationship between terrorism and nihilism. The hypothesis to be tested is that the most active terrorist groups of recent times are on the opposite side of Nietzsche's postulates: if nihilism is the negation and senselessness of all that exists, terrorists act on the basis of clear motives and fundamental meaning. Such violence was seen as a rational way for certain people to reach their goals. To test this assumption, three types of terrorism are considered: Islamist, ideological-secular and narco-terrorist
Topic:
Terrorism, Narcotics Trafficking, Ideology, Islamism, and Nihilism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Book Review: Joseph McQuade, A Genealogy of Terrorism: Colonial Law and the Origins of an Idea (Cambridge University Press, 2021) & Alice Martini, The UN and Counter-Terrorism: Global Hegemonies, Power and Identities (Routledge, 2021)

Author:
Tuncer Beyribey
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Since the mid-2000s, scholars have been using critical theory, poststructuralism, feminism/ queer theory, and postcolonialism to critique the hegemonic narrative of terrorism. They analyze how terrorism discourse (re)produces global hierarchies and power relations. This involves archeological and genealogical research, assessing the formation of the terrorism discourse by analyzing how the peculiar Western discourse has become hegemonic. By incorporating postcolonial and genealogical studies into critical terrorism studies, McQuade and Martini attempt to explain this process in their respective works. Their books are complementary in that they allow readers to trace the historical development of the concept of terrorism from British India to its ubiquity in international institutions. Although they cover different historical periods, it is still possible to see how the concept of terrorism has been used in both of those historical periods – during British colonialism in India in McQuade’s book and after the 1980s in Martini’s book – to normalize discriminatory practices against (post)colonial societies.
Topic:
Terrorism, United Nations, History, Hegemony, and Book Review
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. The Technology of Terror: from Dynamite to the Metaverse

Author:
Christina Schori Liang
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Non-state actors have always been interested in obtaining and mastering innovative weapons. According to “lethal empowerment theory”, new technologies will be rapidly adopted and adapted by violent non-state actors when they are accessible, cheap, simple to use, transportable, concealable, and effective. Terrorists are interested in weapons that are useful in a wide range of contexts – “that magnify effects, are symbolically resonant and can be given to unexpected uses.” It is thus important to be vigilant in analysing how actors will leverage and innovate new technologies for malicious purposes, in order to confront the “unknown unknowns” and not repeat the mistakes based on a “failure of imagination”, as highlighted in the 9/11 Commission Report.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Governance, Social Media, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Author:
Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
Topic:
NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

8. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle - a Lethal Weapon of Tomorrow for Terrorists

Author:
Aleksander Olech
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Terrorism has been used as a form of combat for centuries. Over the years, the tools used by terrorists have evolved. While attacks with cold weapons still take place, nowadays terrorists also use explosives, machine guns, guided missiles and increasingly often drones. The present growth of the arms market has led to terrorist groups being heavily militarized, as they can successfully acquire modern weapons and subsequently use them in their attacks. This state of affairs has directly affected the security of states and societies, and subsequently became a principal subject of discussion on international security forums. Contemporary global terrorist threats also harness artificial intelligence that supports weaponized robots, missiles, as well as clusters of killer drones. This narrative arose a few years ago, indicating that terrorists may have a vastly greater array of options at their disposal because they may cooperate with some states that would back them up. The chance for terrorist organisations to gain access to artificial intelligence technologies only increased due to the global competition surrounding it. Due to this potential spreading, terrorists will have a chance to operate weapons supported by AI. These events then merge into a deeply concerning scenario which conceivably may have to be confronted. The threat of terrorist organisations possessing and using swarms of drones does not seem to be very distant.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons, Drones, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Psychological Determinants of Individual Radicalisation

Author:
Elzbieta Posluszna
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The paper aims to define the psychological foundations of lone wolf activism. The analysis that facilitated attaining this goal was based on the Nietzschean concept of resentment theory of compensatory revaluating values that explain the relationships between inferiority and fundamentalism, fanaticism, and ideologically motivated violence. Based on a phenomenological examination of the phenomenon, the author demonstrates that lone wolf activism is founded on two psychologically and sociologically determined successive processes. The first one occurs when a sense of personal inferiority becomes the source of an envy-based hostile attitude toward the world. Later on, this feeling, due to personality defence mechanisms, which bring about the falsification of “primary desires” and the generation of “secondary desires”, transforms into fundamentalism. The second process takes place when, as the result of fundamentalist legitimisation that arise on the level of social rivalry, given fundamentalism is destituted, resulting in fanaticism. The author believes that the knowledge of both processes is necessary to recognise and combat the terrorist activity of lone ideologically motivated individuals.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, Psychology, Legitimacy, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Selected Problems of Security Control in Civil Aviation Based on Own Empirical Research

Author:
Gabriel Nowacki and Bohdan Paszukow
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The paper refers to the evolution of methods, new technologies, and devices in security control processes in light of civil aviation requirements, procedures, and increased flow of passengers. The research problem has been defined as follows: How shall the international airport security controls function in the context of regulatory and operational conditions and current and future threats? In reference to the problem, the research hypothesis was defined as follows: Security control in civil aviation consists of screening persons and detecting prohibited articles and mainly depends on the professional competence of security staff and the proper selection and maintenance of electronic assistive devices. Professional competences refer to personnel’s knowledge, experience, qualification, monitoring, operational supervision, and quality control as part of their tasks. The development of new technologies requires the appropriate selection, commensurate with risk analysis, of electronic assistive devices, including equipment, methods, technical means, and their maintenance in a proper technical condition. The paper presents the results of empirical research conducted amongst experienced aviation security forums. Because of its complexity and unpredictability, this problem still leaves a wide margin for improvement and efficiency. The following research methods were used to solve the research problem: theoretical methods and empirical methods: diagnostic survey and expert interview.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and Aviation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. The Terrorism of Tomorrow is Already Here

Author:
Phil Gurski
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Many experts who track global developments in terrorism over time are familiar with the work of American political scientist David Rapoport. The UCLA professor emeritus is best known for what he dubbed the “wave theory of terrorism.” This comprehensive overview of terrorist movements spanning 150 years posits that there have been four such “waves” — or shifts in motivation, techniques, and outcomes — of terrorist activity since the latter half of the nineteenth century...
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Policy Journal by Women of Color: WCAPS Pipeline Fellows Publication

Author:
Adenikè Adegbidi, Beza Gebremariam, Caroline Mendoza, Clémence Kouamé, and Desiree Raymond
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:
The WCAPS Pipeline Fellowship Program provides an opportunity for college and university students, as well as young adults and early career professionals, to develop a broad understanding of the different dimensions of peace, security, and foreign policy through engagement with WCAPS members, to include young, mid-career and senior level women and men. Oftentimes, the WCAPS Pipeline Fellowship program serves as an introduction to these career paths for young women of color and allows them to seamlessly integrate into the WCAPS community and beyond, thus creating the pipeline we aimed for. The program started locally in Washington D.C. and has since expanded to include participants from across the globe. This most recent cohort had participants from four continents. This dynamic group of women learned about a variety of topics to include Redefining National Security (RNS), emotional intelligence, Women Peace and Security (WPS), and international law as it relates to peacebuilding. WCAPS is very proud to present the policy papers these young women wrote, following months of rigorous research, coordination, and collaboration.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Migration, Race, Terrorism, United Nations, Water, Peacekeeping, Women, Food Security, Refugees, Conflict, Representation, Peace, Gender, and Femicide
Political Geography:
Latin America and Global Focus

13. Intelligent terrorism as a security threat to critical infrastructure

Author:
Ossi Heino
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper considers terrorism as potentially ‘intelligent’, as a threat capable of abusing the critical infrastructures of societies and the related methods for knowledge production. Respectively, it sees critical infrastructures as attractive mediums for terrorist influence. The paper describes the contrast between the logic of providing security and certainty for critical infrastructures and the threat of terrorism, which is evolving in terms of its systemic capacities and intelligence. The way security is provided within critical infrastructures and the way intelligent terrorism could operate seem to separate from each other, thereby creating vulnerability. The paper seeks to enhance the conceptual understanding of this question by describing and closing the gap created by the intellectual separation. By doing so, the article will shed light on the conceptual dimension of the (in)security that has gone unnoticed in the interface between critical infrastructures and terrorism. It outlines the aforementioned dilemma and provides conceptual understanding that makes it easier to grasp and communicate further. The paper shows that the intellectual separation has weakened the possibilities for theoretically understanding and practically recognising terrorism as a phenomenon that is becoming systemically more conscious, more intelligent and potentially increasingly capable in a form of violence that exploits the basic structures of societies and the related knowledge methods for its own purposes. As a conclusion, the paper stresses the importance of profoundly critical tools. Such tools are often perceived as being undesirable or even counter-productive in figuring out the mechanism through the very means utilised in providing for security.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, and Rationality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Children at Risk of Statelessness in the Fight against Terrorism

Author:
Lavina Spieb and Louise Pyne-Jones
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
The departure of ‘foreign fighters’ to join terrorist groups in armed conflicts abroad has led many countries to adopt a policy of citizenship deprivation. This paper demonstrates that citizenship deprivation measures do not have the desired effect for national security, while increasing the risk of statelessness for the children of ‘foreign fighters’. Citizenship deprivation laws in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK and the Netherlands are discussed, in order to view them against international obligations. It concludes that current citizenship deprivation measures are mostly problematic regarding the prohibition of arbitrary citizenship deprivation, the principle of non-discrimination and relevant children’s rights.
Topic:
Terrorism, Children, Citizenship, and Child Soldiers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Raising awareness about the increased threat of the criminal and terrorist use of cryptocurrencies

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:
Criminal and terrorist organisations are increasingly using cryptocurrencies, thus leading to emerging threats in the cyberspace. Money-laundering, tax evasion, ransomware extortion, trading in illicit goods and services, purchasing of child sexual abuse material and terrorist financing are concerning criminal and terrorist activities involving the use of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and Monero are the most used cryptocurrencies among both criminals and terrorists, however other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Dash and Ethereum are being growingly used in criminal and terrorist financial activities. The anonymity/pseudo-anonymity and security characterising cryptocurrencies can challenge law enforcement investigative efforts aimed at countering criminal and terrorist activities. There has not been a widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies by terrorist and criminals yet, however this is likely to change in the next future.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Cryptocurrencies, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. El manifiesto terrorista como instrumento de análisis del proceso de radicalización: el caso de la extremaderecha

Author:
Josep Baques, Mario Toboso, and Carles Ortola
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
En los últimos años se han sucedido diversos atentados terroristas protagonizados por individuos que se suelen vincular a la “extremaderecha”. En realidad, los atentados dan al gunaspistas, enfunciónde cuáles sean sus objetivos. Pero lo que más información aporta son los manifiestos que algunos de esos terroristas nos han dejado. Apartirde esa premisa, este artículo desarrolla un análisis de los contenidos de varios dee llos, planteando hasta qué punto puede hablarse de que existe una ideología detrás de los mismos; hasta qué punto esa ideología es la misma en todos los casos; y hasta qué punto se corresponde con tesis de extremaderechao, más bien, se aproximan más a otras de corte fascista. Tras ese análisis, y atendiendo a los marcos teóticos empleados se puede responder afirmativamente a los dos primeras preguntas, mientras que la tercera respuesta delata la presencia de importante componentes de fascismo en los proyectos de sociedad anhelados por esos terroristas.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, Far Right, and Racism
Political Geography:
Spain and Global Focus

17. Global Terrorism Index 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the ninth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). The report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last decade. The calculation of the GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, hostages, and injuries from terrorism, weighted over a five-year period. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains over 60,500 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2021.
Topic:
Terrorism, Ideology, COVID-19, and Ecology
Political Geography:
North Africa, Morocco, Sahel, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

18. Global Peace Index 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 16th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2022 GPI, the report includes an analysis of the military conflict in Ukraine. It covers likely increases in military spending, new and emerging uses of technology in the war, its impact on food prices and global shipping routes. The report also contains a deeper analysis on violent demonstrations around the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Military Spending, Conflict, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. The Causes and Consequences of Refugee Flows: A Contemporary Re-Analysis

Author:
Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
The world faces a forcible displacement crisis. Across the world, tens of millions of individuals have been forced from their homes and across international boundaries. The causes and consequences of refugee flows are, therefore, the subjects of significant social science inquiry. Unfortunately, historical lack of reliable data on actual refugee flows has significantly limited empirical inferences on these topics. Using data newly released by the United Nations on annual dyadic flows, we replicate twenty-seven studies published in economics and political science journals on the causes and consequences of these flows. We extend fourteen of these. We find that some of the causes of flows described in the literature are less substantively and/or statistically significant than previously reported while others are more. Generally, with some exceptions, we find that previously reported effects of refugees on security conditions are attenuated, suggesting that the literature’s predominant focus on refugees as sources of violent instability may be overstated.
Topic:
Civil War, Terrorism, and Violence
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

20. Fault Lines in Civilizations and Right-Wing Extremism: Germany's Experiment with Domestic Responsibility Vs. International Obligation

Author:
Stefy Joseph and Rhea Anthony
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The first decade of the twenty-first century had, very spontaneously, associated right-wing terrorism mostly with Islamic extremist terrorism. However, events from the second decade of the same century seem to provide a deviation in such a narrative. This is mostly due to the rise in crimes committed by far-right groups that are not Islamist (Blackbourn et al, 2019). Scholars have drawn in particular on the work of Ehud Sprinzak, who describes right-wing terrorism as a particular form of terrorism that is distinctly characterized by split delegitimization. These terrorist groups lead off by developing antagonism and conducting acts of violence against groups that they deem to be ‘illegitimate’ - groups that do not belong to their milieu of humanity. Violent confrontations and threatening the state are secondary; however, once assured that the government in power is being negligent in fulfilling the demands of the ‘legitimate’, they begin to reject the government and flout the laws. They, thus function on a dual process of delegitimization that first delegitimizes the unaccepted aggregate and later delegitimizes the government.
Topic:
Terrorism, Conflict, Violence, Militant Islam, and Radical Right
Political Geography:
Global Focus

21. Thriving on Uncertainty: COVID-19-Related Opportunities for Terrorist Groups

Author:
Abdelhak Bassou and Youssef Tobi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a cataclysmic impact on all aspects of the functioning of our world. The relevance of the possibility of the spread of a global virus with the spread of terrorism is not immediately obvious as it is difficult for a direct causal link to be scientifically established. However, taking into consideration how state responses and pre-existing socioeconomic grievances can be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic can lead to innovative findings on how terrorist groups have adapted and conducted their activities during the pandemic. Analysing how the response of states impacts socioeconomic grievances and how it interacts with terrorist activities, the authors have found that the pandemic has impacted the operational and ideological frameworks of terrorist groups in multiple ways. COVID-19 was interpreted as an opportunity to spread extremist propaganda and ideology. The pandemic was presented as an act of God, punishing the ungodly and weakening enemy governments. In terms of propaganda, this virus was presented as a soldier of Allah and was used for online recruitment strategies. Concerning the operational front, poor state responses to the pandemic may have reinforced the legitimacy of terrorist groups among populations as they were continuously used as arguments advancing the agenda of these groups in their areas of intervention. In the first chapter, poor state responses and their interactions with terrorists’ activity was analysed especially in the Sahel region where the longstanding fragilities of states have been exacerbated by the pandemic. However, at this stage, a clear correlation between COVID-19 and the increase of terrorist activity is yet to be established. This property of COVID-19 as a crisis intensifier is a strong argument in the last chapter focusing on the Maghreb region: taking into account the various databases and academic viewpoints, this chapter examines the link between the growing popular discontent of the populations of Maghreb countries and the surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. As in the Sahel region, a potent and clear connection between COVID-19 and a possible increase of terrorist activities was contested. The role of state responses and their effect on the surge of terrorist activity was also addressed, especially in the second chapter of this study: for instance, when examining the changing recruitment strategies of terrorist groups in the Mashreq region, strengthening the resilience of the state and society was the viable strategy for countering violent extremism. For the European Union (EU) to achieve this endeavour, this study argues that the EU’s efforts need to work on remediating the vulnerability of fragile groups within societies and to consider the core governance fragilities leading to the surge of terrorist activities in the regions covered, namely the Sahel, the Mashreq and the Maghreb.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. The Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2021

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The pandemic year 2021 is likely to witness an overall decline in global terrorism. While the threat grew in conflict zones, it diminished off-the-battlefields. However, threat groups worldwide are expanding in cyber space during the pandemic. From Indonesia to Pakistan, Muslim majority countries, Arabization and Islamization of Muslim communities during the pandemic is disrupting national cohesion. To prevent, counter and respond to the recent developments of key terrorist organizations, governmental and non-governmental partners should understand the threat. The intelligence services, law enforcement authorities and military forces should move from counter terrorism cooperation to collaboration and partnership. Working with community, academic and private sector partners, governments should build the higher strategic and ground level operational and tactical capabilities.
Topic:
Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Global Focus

23. Post-Covid Security Landscape: A Conversation with Raffaelo Pantucci

Author:
Raffaello Pantucci
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Fletcher Security Review (FSR): Thank you for joining FSR today. To begin, what challenges do you believe countries or security practitioners will face in preventing terrorism or countering violent terrorism in a postCOVID-19 world? Raffaelo Pantucci (RP): There are going to be a lot of challenges. The difficulty with trying to make judgments about what is going to happen in a post-COVID world is that we are not in the post-COVID world yet. We are still in the midst of the pandemic, so a lot of this work and assumptions that we look into are based on assessments of what we think could happen. I think a number of things will happen. First, I think we are going to see real pressure on security forces’ resources. On the one hand, kinetic security forces—police and intelligence services—probably will not suffer too much. But the real dilemma will come with some of the upstream funding. Money is being used to try to stop people from being drawn to violent groups in the first place. Countering violent extremism projects will face immense challenges since it is very hard to understand and make direct causal links between the issues the programs are addressing and the ultimate threats. We are going to see a push on budgets and that will result in cuts for security forces. These will have an impact in different ways in different places. Unfortunately, terrorist threats are global. You can have a good grip on your threat matrix, but it has links across borders which are beyond your control. This creates a potential risk if a country you are connected to does not have a grip on their security and are under the same sort of budgetary pressures, then it is possible you will see a negative knockon effect.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Interview, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Reputation Building as a Strategy for Terror Group Survival

Author:
Efe Tokdemir
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this paper I investigate terror groups' survival. The fate of terrorists hinges heavily on the power the terror group derives from its reputation. The reputation, which depends on policies and actions the group takes within their constituency, determines the degree to which each group can find recruits, resources, and support for its cause. I contend that terror groups investing on positive or negative reputation within their constituency— the people they claim to represent==are likely to survive longer. Yet, I argue, building a positive reputation has a greater impact on a group’s staying power given that this attracts loyal and committed supporters. Conversely, groups with no clearly defined reputation-building policies undergo an organizational change. I find support for my expectations by testing my arguments over all domestic terror groups active between 1980 and 2011 using the RTG and GTD databases. The findings reveal that once a terrorist group is formed, it is exceedingly difficult to obliterate it so long as it follows a clear reputational strategy to achieve their goals.
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, Group Survival, and Reputation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. PTSS Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest Workshop: The Impact of the COVID–19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counterterrorism

Author:
James K. Wither
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
This paper presents the findings of a George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) Counterterrorism (CT) Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest (COI) workshop held on January 20-21, 2021. The objectives of the workshop were as follows: Analyze the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on terrorism and CT nationally and internationally. Identify the extent to which the pandemic has created vulnerabilities that terrorists have been able to exploit to mount attacks and/or attract new recruits. Explore the extent to which the pandemic might make societies more vulnerable to terrorism and irregular warfare in the longer term and the reasons why this could happen. Formulate policy recommendations for the global counterterrorism community from the perspective of GCMC CT Alumni. The virtual workshop was structured around four panels, each with two alumni panelists with practical or academic expertise on the selected topics. GCMC CT faculty acted as panel moderators. The panels examined the impact of the pandemic on terrorist financing as well as terrorism and CT in the Middle East, the Americas, and the Sahel in Africa. Thirty selected global alumni took part in the workshop and raised additional questions and comments after the formal panel sessions. Initially, planning for the COI took place in spring 2020, when it was wrongly assumed that the worst of the pandemic would be over by 2021 and assessments of its impact would, therefore, be relatively conclusive. However, given the continued threat posed by COVID-19, with countries around the world still suffering from its impact, the assessments below must be regarded as interim. Therefore, the workshop made no specific policy recommendations. Marshall Center CT faculty members, along with their colleagues at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), have researched the impact of the pandemic on terrorism since March 2020.1 The COI followed a survey of alumni on the impact of the pandemic on terrorism and CT conducted in October 2020.2 Over four hundred military and civilian counterterrorism practitioners responded to the survey from Europe, North and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Unsurprisingly, many of the conclusions from the recent workshop are similar to impact statements in the earlier survey.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Counterterrorism Yearbook 2021

Author:
Leanne Close and Daria Impiombato
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
ASPI is delighted to release its 5th edition of the Counterterrorism (CT) yearbook, edited by Leanne Close, APM and Daria Impiombato. The 2021 yearbook provides a comprehensive picture of the current global terrorism landscape. The yearbook's 29 authors found Covid-19—a key theme in most chapters—to have had an impact on global terrorism. However, pervasive online social media platforms have played a more significant role, increasing terrorists’ ability to radicalise and incite individuals to commit terrorist acts, as well as encouraging financial support to terrorist groups. The yearbook begins with an overview of current trends and the terrorism landscape in 2020 identified in the 8th Global Terrorism Index (GTI) produced by Australia’s Institute for Economics and Peace. As well as analysis of the impacts of Covid-19 on terrorist threats globally, several key themes emerge from the yearbook’s chapters, consistent with the trends identified in the GTI. These include the impact of social media and technology on terrorist events and radicalisation, and a nexus between terrorism and organised crime. One concerning example highlights the impact of natural disasters on violent extremism, with a study of 167 countries over 30 years from 1970, which found that an increase in deaths from natural disasters resulted in an increase in terrorism-related deaths and attacks in the following two years. Strong examples of prevention and strategies to counter violent extremism are outlined in the yearbook, providing governments and CT practitioners with contemporary analysis of current and emerging challenges and offering key policy recommendations to combat radicalisation, violent extremism and terrorism in all its forms.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Economic Value of Peace 2021: Measuring the global economic impact of violence and conflict

Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The comprehensive methodology includes 18 indicators covering the direct and indirect costs of violence, and the expenditures to contain and prevent violence. The model also includes a multiplier for the direct costs to account for the additional economic activity resulting from a redirection of these costs to more productive pursuits. The economic impact of violence provides an empirical basis to better understand the economic benefits resulting from improvements in peace. Estimates are provided for 163 countries and independent territories, covering over 99.5 per cent of the global population. It uses the best available data to calculate the overall impact. However, not all categories of violence have reliable data, therefore preventing their inclusion in the model. Some examples of costs excluded from the model are counter-terrorism and intelligence agency expenditures, insurance costs, lost business opportunities and family violence. As such, the estimates presented in this report are considered highly conservative. In 2019, the economic impact of violence decreased by $64 billion from the previous year. This was the equivalent of a 0.4 per cent decrease and was largely driven by reductions in Armed Conflict. This fall predominantly occurred in the Middle East and North Africa region and was driven by fewer terror attacks, conflict deaths, and population displacement costs. This is a continued reversal of previous periods where between 2012 and 2017, the global economic impact of violence rose by 12.2 per cent to peak at $14.8 trillion. This is the second consecutive year of improvement.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, Peacekeeping, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. Naming Terror: Impact of Proscription on Negotiations with Non-State Armed Groups

Author:
Flavia Eichmann
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This article explores what impact terrorist blacklists have on negotiated solutions to armed conflicts involving listed non-state armed groups. Even though conflicts that involve non-state armed groups do not usually end through these groups’ military defeat, governments around the globe tend to adopt hard-security approaches with regard to inner-state conflicts. Especially when groups resort to terrorist tactics, governments tend to be reluctant to engage peacefully with these actors and instead commonly rely on terrorist blacklists in order to delegitimize and restrict groups’ activities. While these blacklists are effective in criminalizing the operations of these groups, they can also severely impede peaceful dialogue and thus negatively impact the resolution of conflicts. Especially the work of NGOs and third-party peace practitioners is greatly constrained by criminalizing any form of interaction with listed groups. Additionally, in the absence of a universal definition of what constitutes a terrorist group, lists vary from country to country and the criteria for groups and individuals to get listed are often extremely vague. Furthermore, most lists fail to re-evaluate the proscribed groups on a regular basis and delisting procedures lack transparency. This article finds that blacklists severely disincentivize peaceful engagement with non-state armed groups and thus calls for a revision of contemporary proscription regimes in order to shift the focus of counterterrorism approaches towards viewing peaceful dialogue as a first option and not a last resort.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

29. The Terrorist Lists: An Examination of the U.S. Government’s Counterterrorism Designations Efforts

Author:
Seth Loertscher, Daniel Milton, Bryan C. Price, and Cynthia Loertscher
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
After the attacks of September 2001, the U.S. government grappled with ways to apply all aspects of its national power against the terrorist groups it found itself combating militarily. On the diplomatic and financial fronts, much of this increased effort revolved around the sanctioning and designating of terrorist groups and individual terrorist actors, resulting in a drastic increase of the number of individuals and groups which were branded with the term “terrorist.” Yet despite the application of these tools for almost 20 years, or longer in some cases, little work has been done to understand the impact of these programs. This report examines two sanctioning efforts the U.S. government has employed against terrorist actors: the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list and the designation of individuals as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) under the authority granted by Executive Order 13224. Although the specific purposes of each of these programs differ from one another, ultimately both represent a non-kinetic approach to counterterrorism that relies on the application of diplomatic and/or financial statecraft. The examination of each of these programs in this report has two general goals. The first is to provide an overview of the program and descriptive statistics regarding its implementation. The second is to provide some form of assessment regarding the impact that these programs have on terrorist groups and individuals. In accomplishing these two goals, the authors relied exclusively on open-source information collected by researchers at the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC). This report attempts to provide a deeper understanding of the impacts of these tools, in addition to highlighting some of the structural limitations and gaps in the application of counterterrorism sanctions.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Boko Haram, Hamas, and Abu Sayyaf
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Global Focus, and United States of America

30. Small Groups, Big Weapons: The Nexus of Emerging Technologies and Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism

Author:
Stephen Hummel and F. John Burpo
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Historically, only nation-states have had the capacity and resources to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD) due to the significant capital, infrastructure, and intellectual capacity required to develop and maintain a WMD program. In recent years, however, this paradigm has been shifting, particularly for non-state actors. The commercialization of emerging technologies is reducing the financial, intellectual, and material barriers required for WMD development and employment. This report surveys three emerging technologies—synthetic biology, additive manufacturing (commonly known as 3D printing), and unmanned aerial systems—and examines the nexus of each with nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons agent proliferation. It examines how non-state actors might use these emerging technologies to overcome traditional barriers against the development and employment of WMD. This product, a joint collaboration of the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point, is a timely primer for policymakers, scientists, and security specialists concerned with the impact of emerging technologies on WMD development and terrorists’ capabilities broadly.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Weapons, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. March 2020 Issue

Author:
Blyth Crawford, Florence Keen, Raffaello Pantucci, Colin P. Clarke, Lorenzo Vidino, Jon Lewis, Andrew Mines, and Christopher Anzalone
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Far-right terror is going global, propelled to a significant degree by an online ecosystem of extremists posting in English. Since 2018, attackers have targeted synagogues in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; the towns of Poway, California, and Halle, Germany; mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand; and a Walmart in El Paso, Texas. In this month’s feature article, Blyth Crawford and Florence Keen examine the February 19, 2020, far-right terrorist attack that targeted shisha bar customers in the German town of Hanau and led to the death of nine victims. They write that the influences on the deceased Hanau attacker Tobias Rathjen were “a combination of traditional far-right, race-based, and anti-immigration narratives, alongside several more obscure conspiracy theories.” They argue that a common denominator between the Hanau attack and the aforementioned attacks in the United States, New Zealand, and Germany “is the perpetrators’ shared adherence to the ‘Great Replacement’ conspiracy narrative … which perceives the cultural and biological integrity of the white race to be endangered by increased levels of (non-white) immigration and the stagnation of white birth rates.” In our ongoing “A View from the CT Foxhole” series, Raffaello Pantucci interviews Jonathan Evans, who served as the Director General of the U.K. Security Service MI5 between 2007 and 2013. Colin Clarke examines the issues raised by the December 6, 2019, terrorist attack by the Saudi Air Force Officer Mohammed Alshamrani, which killed three U.S. Navy sailors at Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida. He writes, “In early February 2020, al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for the attack. It is not clear yet whether the group had a direct role in the attack, but if it did, it would make the shooting the first deadly terrorist attack on U.S. soil since 9/11 directed by a foreign terrorist organization.” By analyzing “all related-court cases since 2013,” Lorenzo Vidino, Jon Lewis, and Andrew Mines find that “save for a few exceptions, the vast majority of U.S.-based Islamic State supporters left a remarkably small financial footprint. Most, in fact, simply relied on personal savings to pay the small costs required for their activities.” Christopher Anzalone examines al-Shabaab’s PSYOPS (psychological operations) messaging, which he argues “takes advantage of the lack of transparency in certain instances from its opponents, including some governments, and the demand by the international news media for details from on the ground, with the group framing itself as a reliable source of on-the-ground information.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Media, Islamic State, Violence, Far Right, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

32. September 2020 Issue

Author:
Daniel Milton, Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi, Michael Brian Jenkins, and Mohammed Hafez
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the September issue, it is revealed for the first time that the Islamic State’s new leader, publicly identified by the U.S. government as Amir Muhammad Sa’id ‘Abd-al-Rahman al-Mawla, was detained by U.S. forces in Iraq in 2008 and interrogated. The Combating Terrorism Center has made available on its website three of his declassified interrogation reports, and these are analyzed in a feature article by Daniel Milton and Muhammad al-`Ubaydi, who caution that claims made by al-Mawla while in custody are very difficult to verify. Based on their assessment of the three documents and their research, they conclude that “key assumptions about al-Mawla, notably his Turkmen ethnicity and early involvement in the insurgency in Iraq, may not be accurate. Moreover, statements made by al-Mawla, while doubtless trying to minimize his own commitment to ISI [the Islamic State of Iraq], suggest that his commitment may have been borne less of zeal than of serendipity. If true, this would suggest that something certainly changed in al-Mawla, as his later reputation suggests someone who ruthlessly pursued his ideology, even to carrying out genocide against its enemies. The TIRs [tactical interrogation reports] also show that al-Mawla, who, according to the timeline that he himself provided, appears to have quickly risen in the organization’s ranks in part because of his religious training, knew much about ISI and was willing to divulge many of these details during his interrogation, potentially implicating and resulting in the death of at least one high-ranking ISI figure.” The Combating Terrorism Center convened a panel of leading scholars and analysts to further discuss the three documents. Cole Bunzel, Haroro Ingram, Gina Ligon, and Craig Whiteside provided their takeaways, including on whether the revelations may hurt al-Mawla’s standing within the group. In the other cover article, Brian Michael Jenkins considers the future role of the U.S. armed forces in counterterrorism, in a sweeping examination of the changing strategic, budgetary and threat environment. He writes: “Dividing the military into near-peer warfare and counterterrorism camps makes little sense. Future wars will require U.S. commanders to orchestrate capabilities to counter an array of conventional and unconventional modes of conflict, including terrorism.” Finally, as the global civil war between the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida intensifies, Mohammed Hafez outlines how a recent ‘documentary’ released by the Islamic State’s Yemeni branch has made clearer than ever before the areas of disagreement between the groups.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Populism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Middle East, Global Focus, and United States of America

33. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 03: COVID-19 and Terrorism

Author:
Raffaello Pantucci, Abdul Basit, Kyler Ong, Nur Aziemah Azman, V. Arianti, and Muh Taufiqurrohman
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has redefined almost all spheres of modern life. While states around the world are redeploying their financial resources, energies and military capabilities to cope with the challenge of the coronavirus, terrorist groups across the ideological spectrum have positioned themselves to exploit the gaps created by these policy re-adjustments. Terrorist groups are milking people’s fears amid confusion and uncertainty to promote their extremist propagandas. The rearrangement of global imperatives will push counter-terrorism and extremism down the priority list of the international community. Anticipating these policy changes, existing counter-terrorism frameworks and alliances should be revisited to devise cost-effective and innovative strategies to ensure continuity of the fight against terrorist groups. With these considerations in mind, this special issue of the Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features four articles that identify and assess important security risks around COVID-19, given its far-reaching social, economic and geopolitical impact. In the first article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that COVID-19 will have a deep-seated and prolonged impact across government activity, both in terms of the categorisation of risks, as well as the resources available to tackle other issues. Perceptions of risk around terrorist threats may shift, with states grappling with stark economic, social and political challenges. At the same time, security threats continue to evolve, and may even worsen. According to the author, some of the tools developed to deal with the pandemic can potentially be useful in tracking terrorist threats. However, resource constraints will require states, on a global scale, to think far more dynamically about how to adequately buffer much-needed security blankets both within and beyond their borders. In the second article, Abdul Basit outlines the opportunities and potential implications that COVID-19 has created for terrorist groups across the ideological divide. According to the author, terrorist groups have exploited the virus outbreak to spread racial hatred, doomsday and end-of-times narratives. Among jihadist groups, IS has taken a more totalitarian view of the coronavirus pandemic, while Al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Taliban have used it as a PR exercise to gain political legitimacy. Far-right groups in the West have spun it to promote native nationalism, border restoration and anti-immigration policies. Terrorist groups have increased their social media propaganda to radicalise and recruit vulnerable individuals. At the same time, these groups have urged their supporters to carry out lone-wolf attacks and use the coronavirus as a bioweapon. In the post-COVID-19 world, revisiting existing counter-terrorism frameworks to devise more adaptable and cost-effective strategies would be needed to continue the fight against terrorism. In the next article, V. Arianti and Muh Taufiqurrohman observe that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a varied impact on Indonesia’s security landscape. On the one hand, it has emboldened IS-affiliated Indonesian militant groups to step up calls for attacks, with the government seen as weakened amidst a worsening domestic health crisis. On the other, ongoing indoctrination and recruitment activities of militant groups have also faced disruptions. According to the authors, counter-terrorism strategies will need to be reoriented as circumstances evolve, particularly in dealing with the arrest of militants and the subsequent processes of their prosecution and incarceration. Finally, Kyler Ong and Nur Aziemah Azman examine the calls to action by far-right extremists and the Islamic State (IS), which reveals varying degrees of organisational coherence in the respective movements. According to the authors, such variations influence these two groups’ preferred techniques, tactics and procedures adopted in seeking to exploit the health crisis. For its part, IS has a more organised hierarchical structure, even if it has increasingly granted autonomy to its affiliates to plan and execute attacks. In comparison, the absence of a central authority, or command structure in the far-right, can lead to a fragmentation of interests. These factors invariably create uncertainties in how, when and where extremists of both ilk may seek to operationalise an attack.
Topic:
Security, Government, Health, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

34. The COVID-19 Pandemic: A Preliminary Assessment of the Impact on Terrorism in Western States

Author:
James K. Wither
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The paper analyzes the terrorism threat against western states during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and, in particular, whether the crisis has created particular vulnerabilities that terrorists could exploit both to mount attacks and attract new recruits. The paper also explores the extent to which the pandemic might make western societies more vulnerable to terrorism in the longer term. Salafi-jihadist and far-right extremists have greeted the COVID-19 crisis with enthusiasm, viewing its impact on the West as both vindicating and advancing their ideologies and objectives. However, despite the calls for attacks on social media, the pandemic’s lockdowns, increased surveillance, travel restrictions, and the heavy police and military presence on the ground have created a challenging environment for terrorist operations. The security services have been drawn directly into the campaign against the corona virus. This has diverted resources and assets away from counterterrorism duties in the short term, which might create potential opportunities for terrorists. As a result of the pandemic, governments will need to review national security priorities in the longer term. This is likely to result in a much greater emphasis on domestic and international public health issues. Counterterrorism may not retain its post 9/11 position in the hierarchy of western national security priorities.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. The COVID-19 Pandemic: Counterterrorism Practitioners’ Assessments

Author:
James Wither and Richard Masek
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020 arguably created the greatest global security challenge since 1945. Faced with this unanticipated threat, scholars and practitioners from the security and counterterrorism fields have struggled to understand and assess the impact of the pandemic on global and domestic terrorism.1 Many terrorist groups and individual extremists reacted with enthusiasm to the pandemic. Salafi-jihadist and far-right extremists, in particular, claimed that the pandemic vindicated their very different ideological standpoints and called for attacks while affected states were at their most vulnerable. However, outside of areas already impacted by armed conflict like the Sahel, there has not been a rise in terrorist attacks during the pandemic. Terrorists of all kinds have stepped up their propaganda, hoping to influence anxious people largely confined to their homes by lockdowns and compelled to spend more time on the Internet and social media. However, the extent to which terrorists have successfully attracted new converts to their cause or active recruits during the crisis still remains uncertain. The pandemic has also raised the specter of bio-terrorism, as there were fears that terrorists might try to use COVID–19 as a biological weapon. Early in the crisis, some extremists used the internet to encourage infected individuals to spread the virus in public places, but there is little evidence of such activities being carried out. As regards more sophisticated attacks, some terrorist groups in the past have aspired to employ bio-terrorism, but the necessary weapons have always proved too difficult for terrorists to successfully develop or deliver. Despite the calls for attacks on social media, the pandemic’s lockdowns, increased surveillance, the ban on gatherings, and travel restrictions, coupled with a heavy police and military presence on the ground in some cities have created a challenging environment for terrorist operations. But as governments continue to focus their efforts on combating the virus, normal security protocols may be reduced or abandoned. In most countries, the security services have been drawn directly into efforts to counter the pandemic and to an extent have been affected by social distancing and other restrictions employed to combat the virus. There are also concerns that international cooperation to combat terrorism will be reduced as countries focus more narrowly on domestic priorities. Many governments have resorted to emergency legislation to allow the police to enforce lockdowns and social isolation. This is normal behavior for autocratic governments, but unprecedented in liberal democracies, at least during peacetime. Repressive legislation allows intrusive surveillance, detention, and prevents freedom of assembly and movement. Although traditionally there has been no direct link between poverty and terrorism, socio-economic hardships caused by the pandemic are also likely to be severe, especially in the developing world. Government repression is a common trigger for acts of terrorism as it can turn already aggrieved citizens into violent extremists. To date, the COVID–19 pandemic has highlighted governments’ lack of preparedness, social inequalities and macro-economic failings. It would be premature, however, to conclude that the coronavirus crisis will inspire new forms of anti-state terrorism or turn largely non-violent anti-globalization and environmentalist groups into violent extremists. In the longer term, it remains to be seen whether counterterrorism will retain the priority it has been given since 9/11 in terms of financial, technical, and manpower resources. Public health as a national security priority may command a much greater share of resources than ever before. Given the impact of the COVID–19 pandemic on public finances, budget cuts to the security services may be more severe than after the financial crisis in 2008-2009, which could create new vulnerabilities for terrorist groups to exploit. The aim of this report is to provide further insights into the issues outlined above by providing data on the preliminary impact of COVID–19 supplied by over 400 military and civilian counterterrorism professionals surveyed by the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies’ (GCMC) Program in Terrorism and Security Studies (PTSS) faculty team.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Terrorism, Counter-terrorism and Violent Extremism

Author:
Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on terrorism, counter-terrorism and violent extremism written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of terrorism, counter-terrorism and violent extremism.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Women
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. War, Terrorism, and Catastrophe in Cyber Insurance: Understanding and Reforming Exclusions

Author:
Jon Bateman
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber insurance is a promising way to contain the havoc cyber attacks wreak, but endless lawsuits hamper its effectiveness. Reforms and new solutions are sorely needed. Insurance is one of the most promising tools for addressing pervasive cyber insecurity. A robust market for insuring cyber incidents could, among other things, financially incentivize organizations to adopt better cyber hygiene—thereby reducing cyber risk for society as a whole. But cyber insurance is not yet mature enough to fulfill its potential, partly due to uncertainty about what kinds of cyber risks are, or can be, insured. Uncertainties in cyber insurance came to a head in 2017, when the Russian government conducted a cyber attack of unprecedented scale. Data-destroying malware called NotPetya infected hundreds of organizations in dozens of countries, including major multinational companies, causing an estimated $10 billion in losses.1 NotPetya showed that cyber risk was greater than previously recognized, with higher potential for “aggregation”—the accumulation of losses across many insurance policies from a single incident or several correlated events. NotPetya also exposed a serious ambiguity in how insurance policies treat state-sponsored cyber incidents. Some property and casualty insurers declined to pay NotPetya-related claims, instead invoking their war exclusions—long-standing clauses that deny coverage for “hostile or warlike action in time of peace and war” perpetrated by states or their agents.2 War exclusions date back to the 1700s, but they had never before been applied to cyber incidents. This novel use of the war exclusion, still being litigated, has raised doubts about whether adequate or reliable coverage exists for state-sponsored cyber incidents. Some observers have asked whether such incidents are insurable at all, given the potential for aggregated cyber losses even more catastrophic than those of NotPetya.3 And while the war exclusion has attracted the most attention, another exclusion—for terrorism—presents similar challenges to cyber claims.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Cybersecurity, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. Key Lessons for Global Counter-Insurgency from the Fight against Boko Haram

Author:
Andrew Hankins
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Whilst the number of insurgencies has steadily increased since the end of the 1990s, today they constitute the majority of all globally monitored conflicts.1 Insurgencies, defined as “organized subversion and violence to seize, nullify, or challenge political control of a region”2 have consequently become a key focus for conflict analysts, with counter-insurgency (COIN) operations now a central tenant within the education of modern professional armed forces.3 COIN itself consists of a “combination of measures undertaken by a government, sometimes with […] multinational partner support, to defeat an insurgency”.4 These missions have been primarily conducted by Western forces, which this article defines as those belonging to the European Union, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom or the United States of America – as not only are these states in line with what is traditionally considered Western society, but are well documented as leaders of Western COIN operations.5 However, non-Western COIN operations now constitute the majority of global COIN operations. One such example is the ongoing operation against the Islamist group known as Boko Haram, in the Lake Chad Basin.6 Despite the fact that Boko Haram continues to operate today, between 2011 and 2019 the Nigerian Joint Task Force (NJTF), as part of the Lake Chad Basin Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), successfully reduced both the ability and reach of Boko Haram. This was achieved by adopting the widely accepted best practices of COIN: a regional focus, a political strategy and a population-centric security focus.7 This article explores each of these strategies, analysing them through a theoretical lens, before outlining the mission’s shortcomings and finally considering the lessons that can be learnt and contrasting them with Western COIN missions in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Kenya.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39. Global Terrorism Index 2020: Measuring the impact of terrorism

Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and other sources. Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2019. In 2019, deaths from terrorism fell for the fifth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The total number of deaths fell by 15.5 per cent to 13,826. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the impact of terrorism, with 103 countries recording an improvement on their GTI score, compared to 35 that recorded a deterioration. The full GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, injuries, and property damage from terrorism, over a five-year period. The largest fall in the impact of terrorism occurred in Afghanistan, which recorded 1,654 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 22.4 per cent decrease from the prior year. However, Afghanistan remains the country most impacted by terrorism, after overtaking Iraq in 2018.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Global Focus

40. Preparing the Global Counterterrorism Forum for the Next Decade

Author:
Eric Rosand
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In the two decades since the 9/11 attacks, terrorist networks have become more global and interconnected even as they remain locally tethered. The transnational and localized nature of the threat underscores the continued importance of international cooperation in all aspects of a response. This report explores the work of the Global Counterterrorism Forum, launched in 2011 to energize such cooperation, and how best to position it for an effective and far-reaching future.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41. The Fight Against Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

Author:
Jeremy Lin
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) fulfills a critical role in international financial governance as the global standards-setter for antimoney laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). Money laundering and terrorist-financing challenges are evolving, particularly as AML/CFT regimes in developed countries become more robust and illicit financial flows move deeper into primarily cash-based informal economies. Recent political maneuvering by FATF member states to influence the organization’s decisions and global AML/CFT standards-setting has demonstrated that the FATF and AML/CFT policymaking are vulnerable to individual state interests and that the organization’s political independence needs to be strengthened. To more effectively address the above challenges, the FATF should establish an independent oversight function, provide clearer guidance and technical support to countries with deficient AML/CFT regimes, and expand the diversity of its membership.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Monetary Policy, Governance, and Financial Crimes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Intelligence and Terrorism: The Impact of Terrorism on the Counter- Terrorism Roles and Architecture of Intelligence Agencies

Author:
D. Chen
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
Counter-terrorism (CT) has since 9/11 become a leading component of intelligence work, alongside mainstays like political analysis and counterintelligence. The emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and new dimensions like extreme right wing (XRW) threats are placing heavy demands on intelligence. This paper addresses three questions. Firstly, whether and how intelligence agencies perform CT roles that go beyond disseminating information. Secondly, whether and how intelligence agencies are involved in CT policymaking. Thirdly, how countries have adapted their intelligence architectures for CT. The research comprised four interviews with senior practitioners and academics, alongside literature surveys. The research focused on the UK, US, Germany and France. Organisational theory was used to frame the analysis as existing intelligence theories were inadequate. The findings showed that intelligence agencies do play CT roles beyond providing information. They include investigating and neutralising terrorists, negotiating hostage releases, discreetly engaging foreign countries on CT, and collaborating with the private sector to build CT capability. However, intelligence agencies are reluctant to engage in CT policymaking out of concern that they might lose credibility if their reporting is politicised or a policy they back fails. The research on intelligence architecture showed that the US’s reforms, which were the most sweeping of the countries analysed, were in response to environmental pressures post-9/11 and increased the level of bureaucracy in the intelligence community (IC). The UK’s reforms were reactive but less extensive than the US’s, while Germany’s reforms were proactively initiated and aimed at bolstering CT coordination. The research highlighted that the key environmental influences on CT intelligence work going forward include technology, resource constraints and the legal environment. Day-to-day, intelligence agencies will continue to grapple with issues like how analytical practices can be bolstered to mitigate the risk of politicisation. More research is needed to develop new theoretical frameworks on CT intelligence, update perspectives on the intelligence-policy relationship, and explore applying organisational theory to intelligence work.
Topic:
Intelligence, Politics, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. Does the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Help or Hinder Financial Inclusion? A Study of FATF Mutual Evaluation Reports

Author:
Michael Pisa
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As the organization responsible for setting international standards on anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has encouraged countries to design measures that protect the integrity of the financial system and support financial inclusion. But it has also received criticism that poor implementation of its standards can undermine financial access. One of the FATF’s main tools for compelling effective use of its standards is the mutual evaluation process, which relies on peer reviews to assess countries’ level of compliance with the FATF Recommendations. We explore whether these reviews have been conducted in a way that helps or hinders national efforts to promote financial inclusion by reviewing the 33 developing country mutual evaluations that took place between 2015-2018. Overall, these findings suggest that assessment teams have conducted mutual evaluations in a way that supports efforts to promote financial inclusion and the flexible use of simplified measures. There is, however, inconsistency in how assessors treat risks emanating from financial exclusion, which suggests the need for a more systematic approach to evaluating these risks.
Topic:
Development, Terrorism, Finance, and Financial Integrity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. Global Governance of Terrorism and Transnational Organized Crimes: Challenges and Complexities | Terrörizm ve Ulusötesi Organize Suçların Küresel Yönetişimi: Zorluklar ve Karmaşıklıklar

Author:
Halil Peçe
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
In recent years, with the globalising world, countries are trying to obtain too many military equipment such as nuclear weapons, continental rockets, and high-tech armours. On the other hand, every service is becoming more private which used to belong to the government in history. After the cold war era, security details such as border security, presidential protection, abroad activities, intelligence, and security strategy are provided by private organisations. This study tries to explain what is ‘cold war? , what is a private military company? What is the change for the private military industry after cold war?’ | Küreselleşme nedeniyle artık bir yerel sorundan bahsetmek zor olmaktadır. Bunun yanında, teknolojik gelişmeler erişim kolaylığı ve sosyal medya gibi yeni imkânlar sunmaktadır. Bütün bunlar göz önüne alındığında, terörist gruplar daha önce görülmemiş bir kolaylıkla propaganda yapıp, takipçilerini yönlendirebilmektedirler. 11 Eylül saldırılarından bu yana, terörizm tartışmaları ve çalışmaları üzerine yoğunlaşma devam etmektedir. Terörizme karşı tek taraflı çabalar meşruiyet eksikliği ve meselelere çözüm bağlamında uzlaşma olmaması dolayısıyla küresel yönetişimi daha karmaşık hale getirmektedir. Güncel küresel meselelerin daha iyi anlaşılabilmesi adına terör ve sınır aşırı organize suçların etraflıca analiz edilmesi gerekmektedir. Oluşabilecek otorite boşluklarına çözüm üretme adına uluslararası örgütler harekete geçmek zorundadır. Aksi halde, yeni terörist örgütlerin tartışmalı bölgelerden ortaya çıkacak ve sınır aşırı organize suçlar dolayısıyla elde edilen gelirlerin bu örgütlerin eylemlerini finanse edecektir. Her ne kadar Birleşmiş Milletlerin küresel problemlere çözüm üretmesi gereken kurum olduğu düşünülse de, BM organlarının terörizm ve sınır aşan suçlar özelinde etkili olduğunu söylemek zor olacaktır. Bunun ötesinde, terörizm tanımının ne olduğu noktasında netliğin olmaması, egemen devletlere çıkarlarına göre bir terörizm tanımı yapmalarına imkân sağlamaktadır. Genellikle devletler çözümün parçası olmak yerine problemin bir parçası olma eğilimindedirler. Böylece, küresel yönetişim çatışmaların çözüme kavuşması noktasında ciddi zorluklarla karşılaşmaktadır. Bu çalışma bu zorluklar üzerine odaklanmaktadır.
Topic:
Terrorism, United Nations, Governance, Transnational Actors, and 9/11
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Refugees Without Refuge: Turning Refugees Into Terrorists

Author:
Anjum Gupta, Elizabeth Foydel, and Dorothy Harbeck
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
This panel was part of the "Casting Terror: Intersection of Race and Security Law in a Post 9-11 World" symposium focusing on the intersection of islamophobia and refugee and national security law.
Topic:
National Security, Race, Terrorism, Law, Refugees, Islamophobia, and Asylum
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

46. Horror or Hype: The Challenge of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Terrorism

Author:
Lasha Giorgidze and James K. Wither
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) materials attract the attention of terrorists motivated to inflict mass casualties and create mass panic. CBRN includes a wide array of materials, some of them very difficult to acquire, although others are of a dual-use nature. Dualuse materials can be used to construct CBRN weapons, but also have licit civilian applications. Though not all CBRN weapons are weapons of mass destruction, they can still cause massive disruption and fear in a targeted society. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the potential threat from terrorists’ use of CBRN weapons. It discusses the technical opportunities and constraints of each type of weapon and presents relevant historical and contemporary examples and case studies involving terrorist use of CBRN. The paper also assesses the contemporary threat. It examines how CBRN-related information is shared via terrorist propaganda on the internet and messaging applications, why terrorists might be motivated to use CBRN materials, and the constraints on their ambitions.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Internet, Biological Weapons, Chemical Weapons, and Radiological Weapons
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. Modern aspects of the development of security in air transport under the conditions of air terrorism

Author:
Daniel Michalski and Adam Radomyski
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Objectives: The authors determined the following aim of this article: identifying threats generated by air terrorism as well as characterizing the forms, methods, and manners. Methods: Authors used theoretical methods of research. The article presents research findings with regard to the organization and operation of security systems in civil air transport. At the article, the authors focused on air terrorism and security system in the airport. Results: The presented results of the study are not limited only to the theoretical aspects of terrorism. Authors also characterize organizational and technical undertakings that have already been implemented into security systems in aviation by national and intergovernmental institutions, responsible for its protection. Conclusions: Regardless of the form of air terrorism and applied means, an important issue is a fact that every attempt to intercept an aerial asset is attractive for terrorists, due to the fact that each time it causes not only damage or destruction of the machine itself and the death of passengers, but it is also a real threat to airport infrastructure, installations and urban residents. In addition, the events are accompanied by high-profile media coverage.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Transportation, and Airports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. The basic health care system in a crisis situation after the use of weapons of mass destruction

Author:
Mateusz Kuczabski
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Weapons of mass destruction pose a threat that all health care institutions should be prepared for. Every health care centre can be an essential part of the joint system of response when a critical situation occurs. Although, since 1945, no nuclear weapon has been employed in any armed conflict, cases of both chemical and radiological weapon use have been reported. Taking into account the analysts’ opinion that the 21st century has begun a super-terrorism era (Alexander and Hoenig 2001, p. 7) and, hence, the increased interest of terrorist organisations in acquiring mass destruction weapons, it is difficult to point out the location of a possible attack. A terrorist attack with the use of weapons of mass destruction may happen in any place, both urban and rural. According to the strategy adopted in the event of a critical situation resulting from such attack, the heavily injured should be transported to hospitals located in the closest location of the incident at the proper stage of evacuation. The problem is, however, to prepare a sufficient number of places for all victims of an attack and to provide them with professional medical care. In this context, it seems justified to consider the role and capabilities of the basic (primary) health care, as the most popular element of the health care system that has the resources to operate in a critical situation, and as the institution protecting citizens’ lives and health, i.e. the national safety attributes.
Topic:
Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Health Care Policy, Weapons, Crisis Management, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

49. Chemical weapons as potential tools in terrorist attacks – risks and preventive action

Author:
Andrzej Czop
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This publication looks at shopping malls as a specific category of public facilities. It includes a diagnosis of their safety, pointing to specific irregularities and negligence that threaten them with exposure to possible terrorist attacks. The current international situation is examined, including the crisis that arose as a result of uncontrolled mass migration, which implied an increased threat from Islamic terrorism, which Europe has not yet learned to effectively respond to. A particularly dangerous instrument that can be used by modern terrorists is the chemical weapon. We give examples of its use in acts of terror. The research indicates that a high level of security for public facilities such as large commercial outlets, which accumulate a large number of customers in their premises, is a very important issue. The use of chemical weapons in shopping malls could lead to significant loss of civilian life, as civilians would be a defenceless target. The research process carried out by the author finally drew the conclusion that the current level of security for large-format retail centres does not provide optimal protection in the event of a chemical weapon attack. Therefore, implementing the articles recommendations should positively affect the diagnosed situation and have a significant impact on the improvement of the safety standards in public buildings such as shopping malls.
Topic:
Terrorism, Chemical Weapons, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Vulnerability analysis in critical infrastructures: A methodology

Author:
António Ferreira
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Vulnerability assessment is a crucial aspect for the development of methodologies to define the levels of protection in critical infrastructures. Throughout this research, we discussed the concept of vulnerability and methodologies and processes for its assessment in critical infrastructures due to a terrorist threat. The research focused on the development of an analysis model, exploring a multi-criteria decision method, in order to limit the risks to the maximum extent possible. Through a qualitative research methodology, in which we applied an analysis model based on the Threat and Infrastructure dimensions and their respective factors, we verified that the vulnerability of a critical infrastructure consists in the probability of the success of an attack, conducted by a threat - properly identifi ed, characterised, analysed and categorised - against an infrastructure with certain characteristics, which value is defi ned by the user and aggressor’s point of view. The construction of an algorithmic model for vulnerability assessment, complemented by tools to support the calculations and records, allows, through a rational, scientific and algebraic process, a qualitative analysis of factors to be transformed into measurable and quantifi able values, whose algebraic operation integrates them into a final result that expresses, as a percentage, the degree of vulnerability of a critical infrastructure facing a terrorist threat.
Topic:
Terrorism, Infrastructure, Methodology, Vulnerability, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

51. Global Terrorism Index 2019: Measuring the impact of terrorism

Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and other sources. Data for the GTD is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents for the period 1970 to 2017. Deaths from terrorism fell for the fourth consecutive year, after peaking in 2014. The decline in deaths corresponds with the military successes against ISIL and Boko Haram, with the total number of deaths falling by 15.2 per cent between 2017 and 2018 to 15,952. The largest fall occurred in Iraq, which recorded 3,217 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 75 per cent decrease from the prior year. For the first time since 2003, Iraq is no longer the country most impacted by terrorism.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, ISIS, ISIL, Violence, War on Terror, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

52. Securing Borders Against Traveling Terrorists: Challenges, Best Practices, and Recommendations

Author:
Tom Welsh
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Ten alumni of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia Pacific Center’s (DKI APCSS) Comprehensive Security Responses to Terrorism (CSRT) course and fourteen alumni of the George C. Marshall European Center’s (“Marshall Center”) Program on Terrorism and Security Studies (PTSS) course participated in a first-of-its-kind collaborative CT-COI in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany to discuss and exchange ideas, share best practices, and make recommendations for securing national borders against traveling terrorists. Participants heard from eleven alumni representing nine countries and FRONTEX on current border security challenges and how these challenges are being addressed. The COI concluded with the following observations and recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Borders
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. Terrorism: Two Faces of Women

Author:
Lea-Grace B. Salcedo
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Societal support for both terrorist groups and state-led counterterrorism efforts is dependent upon the extent to which the populace believes that these organizations reflect the societies in which they operate. The composition of the society as well as the society’s ability to address grievances and meet the expectations of the populace are of key importance when it comes to the integration of women into both types of organizations. In the past, women have primarily played support roles to men but increasingly, especially in recent years, they have also served in nontraditional roles in both terrorist organizations and the security sector.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Women, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

54. Women and Terrorism

Author:
Jamille Bigio and Rachel Vogelstein
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Extremist groups rely upon women to gain strategic advantage, recruiting them as facilitators and martyrs while also benefiting from their subjugation. Yet U.S. policymakers overlook the roles that women play in violent extremism—including as perpetrators, mitigators, and victims—and rarely enlist their participation in efforts to combat radicalization. This omission puts the United States at a disadvantage in its efforts to prevent terrorism globally and within its borders. Women fuel extremists’ continued influence by advancing their ideology online and by indoctrinating their families. New technology allows for more sophisticated outreach, directly targeting messages to radicalize and recruit women. It also provides a platform on which female extremists thrive by expanding their recruitment reach and taking on greater operational roles in the virtual sphere. The failure of counterterrorist efforts to understand the ways in which women radicalize, support, and perpetrate violence cedes the benefit of their involvement to extremist groups.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Women
Political Geography:
Global Focus

55. The Business Case for Terrorism

Author:
Stanley McChrystal and Ellen Chapin
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Two of the deadliest and most notorious terrorist organizations, al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State (IS), have boasted many of the same structures and utilized tactics common to organizations in the business world. While AQ (having existed and thrived longer) has gradually built a global network of operatives, IS has focused on rapid expansion. Circumstances have forced the two organizations to compete for influence, resources, and success. In this, article we will reconceptualize terrorist groups as business organizations and explore how such organizations can best be countered, based on insights from the business world.
Topic:
Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

56. The Trends in Islamic Extremism: Factors Affecting the Future Threat

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It is far from clear that Al Qaida or ISIS can ever be fully defeated. The ISIS “caliphate” may be largely broken up, but substantial elements of both movements remain. New movements may emerge, and other movements may grow, and the demographic trends of Muslim-majority countries are a powerful warning that extremism may be a threat for decades to come.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Global Focus

57. Imperfect Proxies: The Pros and Perils of Partnering with Non-State Actors for CT

Author:
Brian Katz
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Islamic State’s march across Syria and Iraq in 2014 and ensuing expansion via global affiliates posed a vexing challenge for the United States and key allies. The Islamic State sought not only to seize, govern, and defend territory as part of its so-called caliphate, but also to leverage these safe havens to build transnational terrorist networks. Countering the Islamic State would thus require large-scale ground operations to conquer the Islamic State proto-states and defeat its military forces, but the need to do so urgently and expeditiously to prevent external terrorist attacks. But who would conduct such a ground campaign? The Islamic State ’s expansion coincided with a shift in U.S. and allied military strategy: the adoption of the “by, with, and through” model for major counterterrorism (CT) operations. Rather than committing large numbers of ground forces, Western strategy would center on training, advising, and assisting host-nation militaries to serve as the main combat element. With small numbers of special operations forces (SOF) and key enablers such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and close air support, Western powers could bolster the battlefield effectiveness of local forces while limiting their own troop commitments. A national army like the Iraqi Security Forces was a natural host-nation partner. But what if there is no state with whom to partner? This paper will examine the recent history of partnering with non-state actors for CT operations where the United States and allies were unable or unwilling to work “by, with, and through” the host-nation.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. The post-caliphate Salafi-jihadi environment

Author:
Isaac Kfir
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
In 2019, the global Salafi-jihadi architecture is very different from the one that emerged in September 2001, when transnational terrorism burst on to the international scene, or July 2014, when ISIL controlled more than 34,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq and thousands of young men and women were flocking to be part of its ‘caliphate’.
Topic:
Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus