Political Geography: Global Focus / Publication Year: within 5 Years / Topic:

201. Stepping Up Our Climate Diplomacy

Author:: Charles Ray
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: At the opening of the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on November 7, 2022, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the representatives of the countries attending that they faced a choice: work together to cut greenhouse gas emissions or condemn the planet to climate catastrophe. “Humanity has a choice,” Guterres said. “Cooperate or perish. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.” Guterres called for the world’s richest and poorest countries to work together to speed up the transition from fossil fuels, and for the wealthy to help with funding to enable poor countries reduce emissions and deal with the negative impacts that they have already suffered due to climate change. “The two largest economies—the United States and China—have a particular responsibility to join efforts to make this pact a reality,” he went on to say. Left unsaid, but understood by most, is that China and the U.S. are also the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases. While the U.S. and much of the rest of the world are still preoccupied with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rampant inflation, energy shortages, and the fallout from the Covid pandemic, the existential problem of climate change cannot be ignored.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and United States of America

202. How Climate Diplomacy is a Pillar of Efforts to Address Climate Change

Author:: Robert Blake
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: People around the world are experiencing first-hand the growing impacts of climate change – more frequent and destructive hurricanes in Florida and the U.S. Gulf coast; devastating floods in Pakistan; accelerated melting of glaciers in the poles and mountain ranges around the world, to name just a few. The science confirms these trends, but the world is still not doing enough to combat climate change. In this article, I will describe where we are in global efforts to limit global warming; the important role of the private sector in those efforts; the vital role U.S. and other diplomats are playing to catalyze action; and how we might better institutionalize climate diplomacy at the State Department.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: Global Focus

203. The Role of US Diplomacy in a Changing World

Author:: David Satterfield
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In the 1933 movie Dinner at Eight, Jean Harlow’s character notes to her society grande dame hostess that she had read an author who asserted technology would soon take the place of every profession. The hostess eyes her platinum blonde guest and responds with the classic line “My dear, that’s something you need never worry about.” And neither do we in our line of work. There is an enduring critical role for diplomacy—personal and institutional—in a world that is always changing. Today’s diplomacy is facilitated by technology in terms of access to information and communication within Washington, from Washington agencies, between DC and overseas posts, and among our missions to an extent unimaginable when I entered the Foreign Service in 1980. The days of the airgram are long past, of waiting for encrypted teletype messages to be deciphered and printed, of mastering Wang computers and the art of producing documents on daisy wheel printers—and good riddance to all!
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

204. The World After the War: Rebuilding an International Order After the Conflict in Ukraine – A DACOR Conference

Author:: Keith McCormick
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The DACOR Bacon House Foundation’s annual conference, held October 6 in its historic mansion near the White House, explored ‘The World After the War: Rebuilding an International Order After the Conflict in Ukraine.’ Instead of focusing on the war itself, its panelists tried to think ahead to what comes next. A period of chaos like the 1930s? The restoration of the current international order? Or some new system that will have to accommodate the interests of a range of countries including Russia, China, and the so-called Global South? The following summary is drawn from both the presentations and the question-and-answer sessions. In accordance with DACOR’s Chatham House rule, this summary does not identify the views of individual speakers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

205. Grayzone Aggression: The Need for Deterrence by Denia

Author:: Elisabeth Braw
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Cyber deterrence needs to rely on a combination of deterrence by punishment of select attacks and deterrence by denial. By definition, punishment means that deterrence has failed, but given that it’s impossible to deter all cyber attacks and intrusions, Western governments with offensive cyber capabilities could retaliate against specific cyber attackers. The harm done to targets of such retaliation and the arbitrary nature of how they’re selected for punishment would increase the cost in most cyber attackers’ cost-benefit analysis. The public also expects the government to avenge, particularly egregious cyber attacks.
Topic:: Security, Cybersecurity, Deterrence, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

206. Outer Space, Information Warfare, and the Truth

Author:: Gabrielle Lim and Joan Donovan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Despite the distance, outer space and Earth are linked. However, our increasing dependence on space-based assets makes parsing the multitude of challenges and tradeoffs more difficult. Amidst talks of great power competition, space weapons, and commercialization there are equally pressing issues concerning production of knowledge, truth, and accountability. Though these topics sometimes overlap with national security (as with arms treaties or interstate war), they also affect the broad concept of human security—the wellbeing and safety of individuals and communities. As states and international organizations consider what to do to ensure the sustainable development and use of outer space, concerns should go well beyond simply reducing the level of debris, whether asteroids should be mined, or what qualifies as a space weapon.
Topic:: Security, Development, Strategic Competition, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Space

207. Plurilateral Controls and a New Export Control Regime are Needed to Make Export Controls More Effective and Less Counterproductive

Author:: Kevin Wolf
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: If the first rule of export control regulation is to define clearly the problem to be solved, the second, with some exceptions, is to ensure that the rule is both effective and not counterproductive. By “effective,” I mean that the rule actually stops or hinders the end users of concern from getting the items at issue from any source. My reference to “not counterproductive” means ensuring that foreign competitors of U.S. companies do not gain outsized advantages in markets to which U.S. firms no longer have access thanks to export controls. The income gained in these instances could allow the foreign competitors to out-innovate, out-compete, or even displace entirely the U.S. company. The exceptions pertain to situations where the U.S. should impose a unilateral control to express objection to and not otherwise support human rights violations or move quickly when the issue to be addressed is urgent, particularly if there is a threat to the warfighter. In both cases, the point remains that the eventual adoption of multilateral or plurilateral controls will make them more effective.
Topic:: Regulation, Exports, Unilateralism, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

208. Druk (2020) Movie as an Example of Authentic Way of Being: A Heideggerian Approach

Author:: Meltem İşler Sevindi and Atilla Akalın
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Heidegger's philosophical project is generally seen as atheoretical and anti-logical because he remarked on the subjective conditions of knowledge and the everydayness of human behaviors. To him, Dasein's everyday reasoning is coercively and inevitably framed by the present-at-hand modes of understanding. Heidegger alerts us about the possible origins of present-at-hand modes of everyday experience. One of them is Das Man that, is associated with a categorical otherness for Heidegger. It can be regarded as an origin of the primordial scheme of experiences for Dasein that takes those experiences for granted as an axiological ground for their lives in the World. Heidegger sees that process as an inauthentic condition for Dasein's fundamental character. Everyday reasoning generates a variety of present-at-hand instruments to understand and interpret the World and Dasein itself; thus, Dasein moves between Das Man and authentic modes. With a Heideggerian approach, this article observes how the characters in the film Druk take themselves out of Das Man and go into the authentic mode and how they do this through alcohol. The primary data source is Druk and the four teacher characters in the film. In the movie, alcohol is not a ready-to-hand object but a tool motivating its users and pushing them to perform. It is an example equivalent to the Heideggerian analogy of the hammer. The movie is a well-fitting example of the Heideggerian position with the story of four teachers who experiment with having a certain amount of alcohol in their blood to achieve a better version of themselves.
Topic:: Film, Philosophy, Alcohol, and Martin Heidegger
Political Geography:: Global Focus

209. Theoretical Reviewing Of Overlapping Consensus In The Context Of Abortion Debate

Author:: Ayla Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the late modern era, modern constitutions have been trying to keep both group rights as minority rights and individual rights. But, in some cases, it is still ambiguous if an action or a phenomenon must refer to individual rights or group rights. Abortion discussions, with regard to political rights, are one example of these ambiguous cases. In this context, whereas Liberal view tends to regard abortion as individual rights of a woman, Communitarian view can be against it by pointing out the right to life and this case may lead to a kind of liberal constitutional crises. This article gains importance as such constitutional crises still emerge even nowadays. John Rawls’s theory of overlapping consensus in Political Liberalism tries to solve these political conflicts that emerged in liberal constitutions by prioritizing public reason. This article conceptionally aims to examine Rawls’s theory in terms of prioritization and value relativity in abortion discussions. The method of article is hermeneutics. In order to extend the universe of the discussion, some important thinkers such as Immanuel Kant, Isaiah Berlin and John Gray, who have related studies on the topic, were included. In conclusion, it is asserted that Rawl’s theory is weak both practically and theoretically as to the principle of utilitarianism violates the rights of communitarians.
Topic:: Constitution, Political Science, Pluralism, Consensus, Abortion, Individual Rights, and Group Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

210. Mali Suçlarla Mücadelede Mali İstihbaratın Rolünün Değerlendirilmesi

Author:: Hüseyin Akkaya
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Günümüzde mali suçların önlenmesi ve tespit edilmesi, ülkelerin en önemli konularının başında yer almaktadır. Bu konu aynı zamanda mali istihbarat birimlerinin de temel mücadele mekanizmasını oluşturmaktadır. Mali suçların doğası gereği sınıraşan nitelikte olması beraberinde bu suçlarla mücadele açısından bir takım zorluklar ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bu zorluklardan bir tanesi mali suçların ekonomik olarak ölçülmesinin imkânsız olmasıdır. Bu zorlukların ortadan kaldırılmasında en önemli etkenlerin başında mali istihbarat ve uluslararası işbirliği gelmektedir. Mali istihbarat, mali suçlarla mücadele edilmesinde ve suçun önlenmesinde etkili ve verimli bir şekilde mali istihbarat birimlerine yardımcı olmaktadır. Mali istihbarat, mali suçlarla mücadelede mali istihbarat birimlerinin verilerden yola çıkarak oluşturduğu analiz ve tipolojilerden meydana gelmektedir. Mali suçlarla mücadelede mali istihbaratın doğruluğu ve ortaya çıkacak olan finansal zekâ, suçun önlenmesi ve işlenmesi durumunda çözüme kavuşturulması için gereken en önemli olgu olarak kabul edilmektedir. Mali suçlarla mücadele eden pek çok uluslararası kurum bulunmaktadır. Başta FATF ve EGMONT Grup genel çerçevede mali suç faaliyetlerine ve mali istihbarat birimlerine yönelik çalışmalar sürdürmektedir. Bunun yanı sıra yerel olarak faaliyet gösteren ülke mali istihbarat birimleri tarafından da mali suçlarla mücadele edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali suç türlerinin nelerden oluştuğunu belirtmek, mali istihbarat birimi kavramının üzerinde durmak ve mali istihbaratın mali suçlarla mücadeledeki rolünü incelemektir. Mali suçlarla mücadele edilirken mali istihbaratın rolünün değerlendirilmesi üzerine oluşturulan bu çalışma ile mali suçların durumu değerlendirilecektir.
Topic:: Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Financial Crimes, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Global Focus

211. Cyber-Nuclear Weapons: Impact on the Modern Warfare Landscape

Author:: Shabana Fayyaz and Baqir Malik
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The popular trends of information technologies have created a virtual world around the globe with the domain of cyberspace, which offers plenty of opportunities and challenges. In the last few years, several events have been described in terms of cyber warfare or the use of cyber weapons, leading to critical international security concerns. At the same time, there is little research on the definitions and power of what constitutes a cyber weapon and how it can be profiled. In the age of globalization and with the dynamic digital environment a new way of strategy and thinking is developing to introduce the new weapons, which has challenged the strategic environment around the globe and changing the concept of warfare in 21st century. The present article is to develop a preliminary hypothesis for to identifying the power of cyber weapon and how it relates with the nuclear weapon to examining the changing landscape of modern warfare. The comparative analysis of cyber weapons and nuclear weapons will help to understand the exact nature of cyber weapons with comparison of nuclear weapons to conclude which one is more preferable and dangerous in modern warfare techniques. The paper is divided into three sections. First part is brief introduction of genesis of cyber weapons, nature, evolution and its different types. The second part is comparison of cyber weapons to the nuclear weapons based on diverse characteristics (developing of weapons, security, arsenal, uses, target etc.). The third part is an analysis cyber weapon vis-a-vis nuclear weapon on the impact level. The paper conclude that the development of cyber-nuclear weapons has significantly altered the nature of contemporary warfare techniques. As technology continues to advance, the use of a cyber weapons has becomes increasingly likely, which could result in devastating consequences. It is important for nations to develop effective cybersecurity measures and maintain a strong nuclear deterrence strategy to prevent such scenarios from occurring.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Cybersecurity, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

212. The Core Constituents in the Process of National Integration: A Thematic Study

Author:: Gohar Ali Iftikhar
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The process of history has unveiled that the composition of human society is an outcome of diverse historical processes and experiences. It leads to the formation of identities ranging from personal, collective, social and cultural identities. In this retrospect, the progress of national integration has been materialised. The phenomena of national integration are common; however, its understanding, interpretation and manifestation levels differ. Every society, community and nation has defined and defied it in its pertinent context. The present study is a thematic work on the process of national integration focusing on the core constituents which had played a decisive role. It seeks to explore how core constituents became the driving force of national integration and how different countries applied it. Furthermore, the study attempts to describe and analyse thematic patterns in the context of National Integration.
Topic:: History, Integration, Society, National Integration, and Constituents
Political Geography:: Global Focus

213. Causes and Effects of Water and Environmental Pollution: A Way Forward

Author:: Tahira Mumtaz, Ammara Tariq Cheema, and Rabia
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Pollution is not a new marvel, yet it is still one of the world's most prominent human issues, with its driving reasons for sickness and demise. Human activities through urbanization, industrialization, and mining are major factors of worldwide Pollution. Both advanced and developing states share this impulse, even though cognizance and flexibility in advanced states primarily affect the security of their current situation. Although worldwide attention regarding Pollution, the effect is as yet felt because of its drawn-out adverse consequences. All kinds of pollution are discussed in this study. The majority of researchers emphasize the study of water pollution. The fundamental changes it makes to humans, animals, plants, soil, and the environment as a whole are what give it significance. The study discusses water pollution caused by dumping solid, carbon-based, and liquid materials into lakes and waterways that comprise toxic chemicals like lead, mercury, and metals. One of the most significant kinds of pollution from nuclear activity is harmful pollution, which occurs when materials flow into the water and become toxic and polluting substances. The majority of factories do not use pesticides and fertilizers to industrial drainage regulations, so the waste reaches the water. Additionally, home waste outflows contribute to water pollution. In addition, it focuses on the most significant causes of groundwater pollution and the stages of its usage and distillation, highlighting hygiene sources as the most significant sources of water pollution.
Topic:: Environment, Water, Urbanization, Pollution, and Contamination
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Global Focus

214. Security Paradigm in the Age of Mass Surveillance

Author:: Gulshan Majeed and Muhammad Naveed Sial
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In this age of social media and technological advancement, people are more connected than ever. People are connected to each other, to their physician, grocery and clothing store. They are shopping online and sending personal and intimate messages. People are being tracked wherever they go simply from their phones. These are the foot prints which they are leaving. The foot prints through CCTV cameras, their social media and their internet searches. Spy agencies use these foot prints for profiling and to keep citizens safe from antisocial elements. There is a draw back of these measures as they cost citizens of their fundamental right of privacy and most importantly, the breach of trust. Analytical approach has been employed to identify the risks involved into mass surveillance and data breach of the citizens. Right activists believe that this data is at risk and it might go into the hands of terrorists, populist far-right or authoritarian governments who in turn might use this data to target political opponents. In this fast-changing environment, national security paradigm is shifting in these recent times.
Topic:: National Security, Cybersecurity, Social Media, Populism, Surveillance, Data, Civil Liberties, and Edward Snowden
Political Geography:: Global Focus

215. A Framework for Action for the Responsibility to Protect: A Resource for States

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: The Responsibility to Protect populations from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing has emerged as an important global principle since the adoption of the UN World Summit Outcome Document in 2005. Since the conception of R2P, individual states and regional organizations, the UN, civil society, and experts around the world have worked to establish what implementation of R2P and the prevention of mass atrocity crimes means in practice. The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and the Asia-Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect have developed a guide for states on steps to take to protect populations from atrocity crimes, at home and abroad. “A Framework for Action for the Responsibility to Protect: A Resource for States” consolidates and builds upon existing expertise from published works and best practice from states, regional organizations and the UN on how to prevent and respond to atrocity crimes. We encourage all states to utilize this framework to assess gaps and identify opportunities to address atrocity risks in their own countries, as well as to understand options available for responding to risks in their region and around the world.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

216. Future Bioterror and Biowarfare Threats for NATO's Armed Forces until 2030

Author:: Dominik Juling
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The article argues that advances in biotechnology and other transformations of the threat environment will increase the risk for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces of being confronted with a biological, particularly a genetically modified, weapon by 2030.
Topic:: NATO, Armed Forces, Biological Weapons, Bioterrorism, and Biowarfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. Colonel John Boyd's Thoughts on Disruption A Useful Effects Spiral from Uncertainty to Chaos

Author:: Brian R. Price
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: A close examination of John R. Boyd’s concept of disruption as recorded in his 1987 presentation, “An Organic Design for Command and Control.” This article draws attention to a series of disruptive actions Boyd lists, including uncertainty, doubt, mistrust, confusion, disorder, fear, panic, and chaos, noting that the list begins with the mildest effect but that it progresses regularly toward collapse and chaos. The author argues that Boyd was specific in listing these effects in order and notes that this cycle could be developed into a useful effects spiral, which, once understood, can be catalyzed to enhance enemy disruption in a Joint all-domain operations (JADO) environment. In the postscript, this article argues that officers seeking to operate in a multi- or all-domain environment can benefit from a broad educational base to unlock creativity in approaching wicked problem sets. This creativity, when coupled with concepts like the effects spiral, can enhance traditional maneuver and combat, triggering an opponent’s collapse without the need for annihilation.
Topic:: Education, Military Affairs, Psychological Warfare, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:: Global Focus

218. Future Warfare and Responsibility Management in the AI-based Military Decision-making Process

Author:: Alessandro Nalin and Paolo Tripodi
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology for military use is growing fast. As a result, autonomous weapon systems have been able to erode humans’ decision-making power. Once such weapons have been deployed, humans will not be able to change or abort their targets. Although autonomous weapons have a significant decision-making power, currently they are not able to make ethical choices. This article focuses on the ethical implications of AI integration in the military decision-making process and how the characteristics of AI systems with machine learning (ML) capabilities might interact with human decision-making protocols. The authors suggest that in the future, such machines might be able to make ethical decisions that resemble those made by humans. A detailed and precise classification of AI systems, based on strict technical, ethical, and cultural parameters would be critical to identify which weapon is suitable and the most ethical for a given mission.
Topic:: Ethics, Weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

219. PART II: Whale Songs of Wars Not Yet Waged: The Demise of Natural-Born Killers through Human-Machine Teamings Yet to Come

Author:: Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Current human-machine dynamics in security affairs positions the human operator in the loop with artificial intelligence to conduct decisions and actions. As technological advancements in AI cognition, speed, and weapon sophistication increase, human operators are increasingly being shifted to an on the loop where AI takes more responsibility in warfare and defense decisions, whether tactical or even strategic. Human operators are also falling off the loop, trailing enhanced AI systems as the biological and physical limits because humans are not the same for artificial intelligence in narrow applications. Those likely will expand toward general AI in the coming decades, presenting significant strategic, organizational, and even existential concerns. Further, how natural humans respond and engage with increasingly advanced, even superintelligent AI as well as a singularity event will feature disruptive, transformative impacts on security affairs and even at a philosophical level discerning what war is.
Topic:: Science and Technology, War, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:: Global Focus

220. PART I: The Singleton Paradox On the Future of Human-Machine Teaming and Potential Disruption of War Itself

Author:: Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Technological innovation has historically been applied in war and security affairs as a new tool or means to accomplish clear political or societal goals. The rise of artificial intelligence posits a new, uncharted way forward that may be entirely unlike previous arms races and advancements in warfare, including nuclear weapons and quantum technology. This article introduces the concept of a singleton as a future artificial intelligent entity that could assume central decision making for entire organizations and even societies. In turn, this presents what is termed a “singleton paradox” for security affairs, foreign policy, and military organizations. An AI singleton could usher in a revolutionary new world free of war and conflict for all of human civilization or trigger a catastrophic new war between those with a functioning singleton entity against those attempting to develop one, along with myriad other risks, opportunities, and emergent consequences.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Machine Learning, Transhumanism, and War Studies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

221. Paradigm Shifts in Macrosociology

Author:: Renate Mayntz
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: This paper looks at changes in macrosociological paradigms for social development that traditionally stretch from the primitive society through the stratified medieval society to the image of a functionally differentiated modern society. Changing the perspective from a systems theoretical view of societies to an actor perspective, I focus on populations of individual actors and organizations as collective actors. Over recent decades, important structural changes in the nature of populations and of organizations have taken place in the Western world. The most important relate to economic globalization and financial internationalization. An increasingly flexible population and narrowly goal-specific organizations produce a situation of societal instability that appears to characterize the present, though its causes reach back half a century.
Topic:: Development, Conflict, Integration, and Financial Globalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

222. Top Wealth and Its Historical Origins: An Analysis of Germany’s Largest Privately Held Fortunes in 2019

Author:: Daria Tisch and Emma Ischinsky
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: Rising wealth inequality is both a topic in recent policy discussion and in the social sciences. Despite the general interest in wealth concentration, we know only little about the largest privately held fortunes. To help fill this gap we analyze the historical origins of Germany’s 1,032 largest fortunes in 2019. In particular, we identify the share of entrenched fortunes – fortunes which date back to the beginning of the twentieth century – and ask to what extent they differ from more recently established ones. Furthermore, we examine in an exploratory way if entrenched fortunes are connected to fortunes with more recent origins through family lines. We use a journalistic rich list published by the manager magazin in 2019, which we link with both rich lists from 1912/1914 and Wikidata. We find that about eight percent of today’s fortunes can be traced back to fortunes held by the same families in 1913. Regression analyses show that entrenched fortunes rank on average higher on the rich list than the remaining ones. Descriptive network analyses indicate that some of today’s largest fortunes are intertwined through marital lines, hinting at social closure at the top. Our findings indicate that the accumulation and perpetuation of fortunes over many generations is an important feature of top wealth in Germany.
Topic:: Inequality, Family, Elites, Wealth, Inheritance, and Network Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

223. Towards a Global Framework for a Public Good to Reduce Information and Labour Market Gaps

Author:: Paula Szenkman, Estefania Lotitto, Augustin Chiarella, and Maria Agustina Lacunza
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:: The Fourth Industrial Revolution is forcing countries to face difficult challenges in responding to their workforce’s new skills requirements. Workers, particularly in developing countries, are lagging in terms of technological diffusion and the adoption of new skills. A key obstacle in addressing the skills mismatch is the lack of updated statistics that incorporate the latest changes in the labour market and the new skills demanded. This Brief recommends that the G20 develop a global framework to reduce information and labour market gaps. The proposed global framework would feature a digital platform with up-to-date data and information, which is disaggregated by the demanded skills. Such a platform would better inform workers, students, and companies about educational trends, employment needs, and training strategies. It would provide guidelines for the generation of a sound information system and encourage the production of easily accessible and customised information.
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, G20, Skills, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

224. Themes of COP28

Author:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: MEI's Climate and Water Program discusses the top issues within the themes of COP28's agenda. For more info on COP28 and climate issues in the MENA region, follow MEI's Spotlight on COP28.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Water, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

225. Climate Financing

Author:: Mohammed Mahmoud
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Director of MEI’s Climate and Water Program Mohammed Mahmoud speaks to energy and sustainable infrastructure expert Lucia Fuselli on the role of climate financing - a critical component of initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and bolstering climate resilience.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Water, Infrastructure, Climate Finance, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

226. Equitable Investment: Dei Budget Recommendations for Nonprofits

Author:: Tamera Allen
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: In the realm of nonprofit organizations, fostering diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) isn't just a moral imperative—it's also a strategic necessity. A dedicated DEI budget is crucial to fueling initiatives that go beyond rhetoric and truly drive positive change. By allocating resources specifically to DEI efforts, nonprofits signal their commitment to addressing systemic inequalities, promoting representation, and creating an environment where all voices are heard and valued. This budget empowers organizations to implement training, outreach, and awareness campaigns, ultimately strengthening their capacity to serve their communities more effectively and equitably. However, it can be difficult to know where to start when contemplating a DEI budget. What resources does one need to allocate toward? What is imperative to include in a prospective budget? How far reaching should the budget be? This resource aims to delve beyond the compelling reasons why DEI budgeting is not just a moral imperative but a strategic necessity for non-profit organizations and provide guidance on how to implement DEI into their organizational budgets.
Topic:: Non-profits, Budgeting, Diversity, Equity, and and Inclusion (DEI)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. Opaque and Pervasive: Microaggressions in Peace and Security

Author:: Karla Mastracchio
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: This is the final report of a multi-year project that analyzes microaggressions in language used across peace and security communities of practice. Our intent is to understand their strategic impact in those professional settings. This project would not have been possible without the invaluable contributions across the WCAPS staff who graciously provided their time and professional expertise to further these discussions. We wish to also extend sincere thanks to each member of the WCAPS community and the wider peace and security field who participated and gave thoughtful feedback. Words matter and the linguistic and performative choices we make in our everyday lives impact not only our ability to maneuver in professional spaces but also affect the way we collectively communicate on a much larger scale.
Topic:: Security, Peace, and Microaggression
Political Geography:: Global Focus

228. Building Climate Resilience in Urban Informal Settlements through Data Co-production

Author:: Giulia Sofia Sarno
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Climate change is worsening the number, frequency and duration of natural hazards across the globe, making disaster risk reduction and resilience building among the most pressing challenges ahead. According to UN-Habitat, informal settlements are where the impacts of climate change are the most acute in urban areas and strengthening resilience in these neighbourhoods represents a very complex yet urgent challenge.[1] Today, urban areas are home to 56 per cent of the world’s population and this figure is projected to increase to 60 per cent by 2030 and 68 per cent by 2050, with 90 per cent of the growth by 2050 expected to occur in less developed economies.[2] In these countries, population growth and displacement (including climate-driven migrations) will lead to rapid and unplanned urbanisation forcing a growing number of people into informal settlements. Currently, one billion people live in informal settlements, mostly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and this figure is expected to grow to 3 billion in 2050.[3]
Topic:: Climate Change, Crisis Management, Informal Settlement, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

229. Managing the financial impact of cybersecurity incidents

Author:: Zsolt Bederna and Tamás Szádeczky
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The complex relationships of economic actors and the high dependency on information and communication technologies make it necessary for all relevant entities to develop protection. This protection should include preventive and reactive controls in a risk-proportionate manner in relation to the business value protected. We aimed to develop a solution to support cybersecurity-related business decisions with financial analytics. The risk-based approach helps management find the optimum solution with minimal costs, where protection prevents some incidents from occurring, while the risks associated with other incidents are accepted in an informed way. The security industry developed a number of apparatuses to find the optimum security controls that enforced the fiscal aspects, which typically contain solutions used in planning. However, the actual expenditure often differs from the planned budget for several reasons, one of which is the occurrence of security incidents. We used the common methodology toolset for financial analysis (NPV, NFV, risk assessment). We developed novel metrics based on these that can be used in cybersecurity management. Within the framework thus defined, the article discusses the economic context of the effects of incidents involving Meta (previously Facebook) services from 2016 to 2020. This paper introduces the ‘Effect of incidents’ metric to measure the impact of unplanned incidents’ on actual expenditure compared to the planned budget and the ‘Incidence of incident recognition’ metric to measure deviations of an incident’s impact as perceived by owners relative to the effect on the value of the assets. The paper also proves the applicability of those metrics using the example of Meta.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

230. Trojan spoofing: A threat to critical infrastructure

Author:: Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This article explores the phenomenon of location spoofing—where the spoofer is able to “teleport” systems in and out of defined locations, either for the purpose of infiltration into no-go zones or for the “teleportation” out of real, defined zones in the physical world. The research relied on a qualitative methodology, utilising academic research findings, media reports, hacker demonstrations, and secondary data from these sources, to situate the spoofing threat in the context of international security. This conceptual, argumentative essay finds that signal spoofing, the methods of which can be followed via online scripts, allows users the ability to overcome geographically defined territorial restrictions. This, as this article finds, allows violent actors to weaponise systems, such as unmanned aerial systems, potentially leading to the escalation of political tensions in extreme but unfortunately ever-frequent episodes. The article concludes that, while Trojan spoofing (in particular) poses a real and an existential threat to international security, it is only a sum-of-all parts in considering other threats to critical functions in society. If geofences are used as a single point of security to protect assets against hostile actors, managers need to be aware of the vulnerability of intrusion and the resulting geopolitical consequences.
Topic:: International Security, Cybersecurity, Information Warfare, Military, GPS, and Deception
Political Geography:: Global Focus

231. Leadership in police work applied to critical contexts: An integrative review and scientific mapping using VOSviewer and Google Trends tools

Author:: Lucius Paulo de Carvalho, Ana Paula Grillo Rodrigues, and Marcello Beckert Zappellini
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to identify cutting-edge studies on the phenomenon of leadership applied to police work, especially in critical contexts, based on an integrative literature review. The integrative review made it possible to survey publications on the subject in the Scopus, Web of Science, Ebsco Host, ScienceDirect, Core, and SciELO databases. Scientific mapping is complemented with the use of VOSviewer and Google Trends tools. The integrative review resulted in 15 studies that fit the research strategy, bringing different leadership approaches, such as instrumental, transformational, charismatic, consultative, ethical, authentic, military, destructive, and laissez-faire, through qualitative and/or quantitative studies. For bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer, the research corpus was expanded to 63 articles, admitting documents that studied leadership with firefighters, military personnel, and police officers. The analysis showed almost no co-authorship link between the 129 authors. The co-occurrence analysis of keywords reveals that leadership strongly links with law enforcement, police, management, crisis management, emergency management, and decision-making, establishing a close relationship between these concepts and a semantic map that underlies the field of study. The analysis of trends by Google Trends in the science category indicates the stability of interest in the topic of leadership in the world. However, the theme of police leadership produced results close to zero. The findings reveal that few studies address leadership in police organisations, and even fewer if critical, dangerous contexts are examined. The trends analysed indicate that worldwide scientific interest in the subject remains low and the theme must be further explored.
Topic:: Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Police
Political Geography:: Global Focus

232. Logistics outsourcing for armed forces: The mobilisation of civilian transportation vehicles

Author:: Nebojsa V. Nikolic
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: One aspect of the total defence concept involves the temporary requisition of civilian transportation vehicles to meet the increased logistical demands of a wartime army. These vehicles are selected and managed in peacetime, mobilised at the onset of the war, used by military units throughout the war, and returned to their original owners afterwards. This paper presents a model for the reception process of such civilian vehicles during mobilisation. In practice, however, reception processes are not without challenges. Under the time constraints of mobilisation, issues may arise, including inappropriate reception, missed deadlines, and compromised operational readiness. To investigate these issues, the study employs conceptual modelling, supplemented by insights from professional experience. The main contributions of this paper include a conceptual model of the mobilisation process, a framework for maintaining records of mobilised assets, and a focus on previously underexplored mobilisation issues. Proper reception of mobilised vehicles significantly affects the transportation capability and operational readiness of military units as well as the accuracy of the post-conflict return process. Implementation of the proposed solutions requires careful consideration due to interdependencies with other aspects of the mobilisation process, such as doctrinal arrangements, administrative systems, mobilisation procedures as well as the quality and regularity of both professional and reservist military training.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Military Service, Logistics, Outsourcing, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

233. Mapping the Cloud: Big Tech Taking the Sky by Storm

Author:: Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Here I map Big Tech clouds focusing on the making of asymmetric relations with the different type of involved organizations. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba are cloud hegemons that control every inch of their clouds. The cloud is the main means of adoption of digital technologies. As such, developers and other firms offering their services on Big Tech clouds accept the rules of a game predefined by those few giants. They even need to get enabling credentials offered by another type of subordinate actor: the companies offering trainings to get mandatory certificates for joining the cloud as providers. At the other end, customers transition to the cloud often guided and hiring the services of outsourced sales forces. After presenting all these actors and their interplay, I focus on AI as a service to explain the negative effects of such a migration at the level of organizational learning and innovation. Customers’ technological subordination and reduced learning by doing, using and interacting in the cloud has triggered mitigation strategies but only large players can afford them.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Big Tech, Corporations, Cloud Computing, and Digital Learning
Political Geography:: Global Focus

234. Rentiership and Intellectual Monopoly in Contemporary Capitalism: Conceptual Challenges and Empirical Possibilities

Author:: Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The concepts of rentiership and intellectual monopoly have gained increased prominence in discussions about the transformation of global capitalism in recent years. However, there have been few if any attempts to construct measures for rentiership and intellectual monopoly using firm-level financial data. The absence of such work, we argue, is symptomatic of conceptual challenges in delineating what precisely qualifies as rent, intellectual or otherwise. In place of static conceptions of rent and intellectual monopoly, we develop a dynamic framework for analyzing the processes of rentierization and intellectual monopolization and apply this framework to the analysis of the transformation of non-financial firms in the United States since the 1950s. We find that the timing and intensity of rentierization and intellectual monopolization differs significantly across sector and firm size and is heavily mediated by the uneven ramifications of government policy across companies and industries. Overall, our framework illuminates the variegated landscape of corporate power in the US, and offers a useful guide for critically interrogating rentierization and intellectual monopolization in other contexts.
Topic:: Political Economy, Capitalism, Monopoly, and Rentiership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

235. Same End By Different Means: Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta’s Strategies to Organize Their Frontier AI Innovation Systems

Author:: Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: I combine quantitative methodologies and in-depth interviews to analyse United States Big Tech different strategies to organize and profit from their AI corporate innovation systems (CIS). I propose 1) “frenemies” for Microsoft, because even Chinese organizations and direct competitors integrate its CIS. 2) “University” for Google, whose AI strategy included leaving DeepMind autonomous to explore more fundamental AI but appropriation mechanisms are not translating into a clear business advantage. 3) “Secrecy” for Amazon, given its large concern with secrecty and profiting from AI. 4) And “application-centred” for Facebook; its AI CIS is the narrowest, mostly attached to its platforms.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Big Tech, and Corporations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

236. The International Monetary Fund and Neonatal Mortality Rates, 1985-2018

Author:: Shih-Yen Pan, Michael Ash, Bridget Diana, Lawrence King, Joseph Lavallee, Ta Minh Quan, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In 2015, 193 nations committed to UN Sustainable Development Goal 3·2, which aims to reduce child mortality rates by 2030. Despite progress, challenges remain, especially in low- and middle-income countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs may influence these outcomes through structural adjustments which prioritise macroeconomic stability over public spending. In this study, we examine the impact of IMF interventions on neonatal mortality, addressing concerns about existing analyzes with a novel statistical approach.
Topic:: Political Economy, History, Sustainable Development Goals, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Infant Mortality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

237. Exchange Rate Arrangements: Fix, Float, or Manage?

Author:: Nathaniel Cline, Carlos Schönerwald da Silva, and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The paper tries to provide a concise summary of the main debates on exchange rate arrangements. It a simple taxonomy of exchange rate arrangements, fixed, flexible and managed, and a brief analysis of the main debates about their advantages and disadvantages. It emphasizes the different policy objectives of mainstream and heterodox schools of thought, suggesting that they tend to be more relevant than the specific defense of one particular exchange rate arrangement. In that sense, there are divergences on their preferences within schools of thought. The paper also discusses the causes of currency crises and the role of the dollar in the international monetary system.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Crisis Management, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

238. Structural Changes and Dominance of Finance in Contemporary Capitalism

Author:: Sunanda Sen
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Structural changes in economies as have taken place in in majority of economies in terms of the sector-wise contribution to their aggregate output as well as employment include a rising share of the services sector, often exceeding one-half of the GDP. Services include, in addition to other activities, the high value financial activities, having weights disproportionately large. Thus the rising share of services to the GDP implies simultaneous rise in share of financial activities to the GDP as well. Analyses in literature explain structural changes by relative profitability as prime mover of changes, similar to financialisation of economies. In this a circuitous link between socio- political and economic-forces and the changing weight (power relations) can be observed. With capitalism taking a multi-layered structure, the path of finance to dominance may be along a variety of trajectories including vertical shifts from real to financial activities. The quantitative strength of finance is reinforced by socio political forces as alliances. The path may face a crisis led by fundamental uncertainty where agents are ignorant of the future, and the path keeps changing by actions of agents themselves. With knowledge unattainable, ‘conventions’ help agents, as Keynes held, the calming of nerves, forming collectively a “conventional process of expectation formation”. This forms a major theoretical innovation of Keynes which brings in expectation formation and decision making by agents based on custom, habit, tradition, instinct as relevant in a model of human agency faced with fundamental uncertainty.
Topic:: Political Economy, GDP, Employment, Capitalism, Finance, and Keynes
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. Optimal Inflation Targeting With Anchoring

Author:: Thomas Michl
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper presents an alternative foundation to the standard quadratic loss function characterizing central bank inflation policy. The alternative treats high employment as a social benefit. In recognition of the inherent asymmetry of the output gap, two self-imposed constraints provide guardrails that rule out excess unemployment and opportunistic reflation. The loss function includes a novel reverse discounting mechanism that penalizes the bank for more sustained inflation gaps that could undermine confidence in the central bank’s target. In the absence of anchoring, the central bank is obliged to use economic slack to accomplish a disinflation but the presence of anchoring creates greater policy flexibility freeing it from the tyranny of the sacrifice ratio. The central bank’s optimal policy differs dramatically from the standard Taylor Rule recommendation in choosing policy plans with higher employment, in its willingness to overshoot inflation targets, and in avoiding excess unemployment, all while observing the discipline needed for successful inflation targeting.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

240. The Crisis of Capitalism, the Noun

Author:: Nancy Folbre
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper explores the challenges that feminist theory, stratification economics, and intersectionality pose to the characterization of capitalism as a unitary system. Attention to the structural basis for inequalities based on gender and race weakens traditional Marxian concepts of exploitation based on the appropriation of surplus value. On the other hand, the continuing relevance of many forms of collective conflict heightens appreciation of the ways in which capitalist institutions discourage the forms of cooperation necessary to address both ecological threats and shortfalls in care provision.
Topic:: Economics, Race, Capitalism, Intersectionality, Gender, and Feminist Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

241. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequality

Author:: Aaron Medlin and Gerald Epstein
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This study analyzes the impact of conventional expansionary monetary policy on wealth inequality in the United States from 1976 to 2012. We use the local projections instrumental variable (LP-IV) approach for our estimation method and employ two monetary shock series to identify the causal effect. High-frequency data is obtained on the distribution of real net wealth and the Gini index from two new sources: Realtime Inequality and the Federal Reserve’s Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA). We find that expansionary monetary policy has positive and persistent effects on wealth inequality over the medium term, in contrast to previous research. Specifically, an expansionary policy of 100 basis points cut in the policy rate increases the share of wealth for the top 10 and 1 percent and reduces the share for the bottom 50 and middle 40 percent of the distribution. Overall, wealth inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, increases around 0.005 on the Gini scale (between 0 and 1) with Realtime data and around 0.015 using DFA data. We also find that the effect size of expansionary policy on inequality varies over prior decades; the effects between 1976 and 1980 are smaller and transient relative to the periods since. We also find that expansionary policy increases wealth inequality regardless of the business cycle. However, its effects are more substantial during economic expansions. Lastly, we estimate the historical contribution of monetary policy to the variation in wealth distribution and find that it does account for significant variations in wealth distribution during certain periods of recent U.S. history.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Economic Inequality, and Wealth Distribution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

242. HIV, Hepatitis & Drug Policy Reform

Author:: Global Commission On Drug Policy
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Commission On Drug Policy
Abstract:: This report, “HIV, Hepatitis & Drug Policy Reform” follows the Global Commission’s thematic reports on “The War on Drugs and HIV/AIDS” (2012) and “The Negative Impact of the War on Drugs on Public Health: The Hidden Hepatitis C Epidemic” (2013). Despite a decade-old call for urgent action, current drug control efforts fail, with HIV and hepatitis prevalence persisting among drug users. In 2023, approximately 354 million people around the world are currently living with hepatitis B or C. People who use drugs, especially people who inject drugs, are at a higher risk for blood- borne HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C. Although there has been some success — for example, the scale-up of antiretroviral treatments that reduced HIV related deaths to their lowest in almost three decades — progress has been uneven and people who use drugs are still left behind. This must change. Prohibition and criminalization of drug use hinder HIV and hepatitis prevention, escalating risks and obstructing treatment. People who use drugs face disproportionate incarceration, abusive policing, and stigma. Inadequate resources are dedicated to proven harm reduction options while billions are spent on punitive law enforcement measures. Achievable UN targets for ending these epidemics by 2030 exist, but a crucial course correction demands political will to embrace a new approach to drugs. The time to act is now.
Topic:: HIV/AIDS, Reform, Drugs, Public Health, and Hepatitis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

243. Financing Women, Peace and Security: A Review of WPS National Action Plans from 2005 to 2022

Author:: Our Secure Future
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: This publication is a policy brief accompanying an upcoming in-depth report on financing Women, Peace and Security (WPS) National Action Plans (NAP). This brief provides an overview of WPS NAPs, as well as the current state of funding for WPS NAP implementation, and a breakdown of this data by region. Stay tuned for the upcoming report to learn more about financing WPS NAPs. Key Findings: • As of early 2023, 31 countries out of 101 have estimated the amount of money required to implement WPS NAP activities. Available information does not illuminate whether these funds are secured. • More than 50 WPS NAPs out of 101 mention that a budget is needed to implement WPS activities, but do not include specification of funding. • The majority of WPS NAPs with budget estimates identify responsible parties for activity implementation, including ministries and/or government institutions, predominantly related to foreign affairs and gender equality.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Budget, Women, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

244. Framework to Decolonize Child & Youth Philanthropy

Author:: DA Global
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Elevate Children Funders Group
Abstract:: In 2022, ECFG commissioned Degan Ali and her team to lead us through a decolonizing grantmaking journey that included learning webinars, collective learning and reflection, the identification of promising practices, and the development of a framework that funders could use to elevate equitable grantmaking. After developing an understanding of our network’s needs and goals, our decolonizing philanthropy working group engaged in deep partnership design with DA Global to create The Decolonizing Child and Youth Philanthropy Framework. This framework recognizes that our members and partners are at different stages of their journey in tackling colonialism within their organizations and grantmaking. While there are universally relevant lessons gained from existing decolonization efforts in the philanthropic and charity sectors, this framework is designed to support the different types, sizes and needs of the funders who belong to this group. This is not a magic solution, but a tool in our decolonizing child and youth philanthropy toolbox. This tool is intentionally focused on supporting those who have embarked on a change process within their organizations, those who want to make additional adjustments, and those who are grappling with how to get started.
Topic:: Children, Youth, Decolonization, and Philanthropy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

245. Global Resources Report: A Francophone Perspective

Author:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:: We are pleased to present this special brief for the Global Resources Report: Government and Philanthropic Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities, with a Francophone perspective. The Global Resources Report is a comprehensive report on the state of funding by foundations, corporations, NGO intermediaries, and government and multilateral agencies for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) issues. The Global Resources Report has published four biennial editions to date, analyzing data from the years 2013 to 2020. Such remarkable research work allows us to release this special report, which aims to document the funding specifically awarded to LGBTI communities in Francophone countries or territories, showing comprehensive data across eight years. This edition covers 1,002 grants awarded by 84 foundations, intermediary NGOs, corporations, and 10 donor governments, and multilateral agencies. The report details the distribution of LGBTI funding by geography, issue, population focus, and donor type.
Topic:: Civil Society, LGBT+, Philanthropy, Funding, and Resources
Political Geography:: Global Focus

246. Reflexive Solidarity: Toward a Broadening of What It Means to be “Scientific” in Global IR Knowledge

Author:: Yong-Soo Eun
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article shows that the problem of “West-centrism” in the study of International Relations (IR) is synonymous with the problem of the dominance of positivism, a particular version of science that originated in the modern West. How can we open up this double parochialism in IR? The article calls for reflexive solidarity as a way out. This indicates that on-going Global IR projects need to revamp their geography-orientated approaches and instead seek solidarity with other marginalised scholars irrespective of their geographical locations or geocultural backgrounds to build wide avenues in which not only positivist (i.e., causal-explanatory) inferences but also normative theorising and ethnographically attuned approaches are all accepted as different but equally scientific ways of knowing in IR. As a useful way of going about this reflexive solidarity, this article suggests autobiography.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Solidarity, and Reflexivity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

247. Globalizing IR: Can Regionalism offer a path for other Sub-Disciplines?

Author:: Hakan Mehmetcik and Hasan Hakses
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Global International Relations (IR) research promotes more spaces for a broader spectrum of histories, insights, and theoretical perspectives beyond the conventional dominant Western ones in the IR discipline. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight that the study of Regionalism has a significant role in supporting the initiative of ‘globalizing IR’ by representing a sub-discipline that is open to new ideas, theories and methods, especially those emanating from non-Western contexts. As such, Regionalism is one of the sub-disciplines of IR and International Political Economy (IPE) with a tremendous potential to showcase global-IR trends. This article utilizes a bibliometric analysis as a proxy for mapping out the diverse and complex intellectual structure of Regionalism as a sub-discipline of IR. Our findings indicate that the remarkable rise in the total number of contributions from non-Western scholars to the Regionalism literature in the last decade suggests that unlike the theory generating mainstream studies Regionalism studies have become dominated by non-European/non-Western contexts.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Regionalism, and Bibliometric Analysis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

248. Methodological Nationalism in International Relations: A Quantitative Assessment of Academia in Turkey (2015-2019)

Author:: Mustafa Onur Tetik
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article seeks to expand the discussion on Methodological Nationalism (MN)within the discipline of International Relations (IR), to contribute to MN literature from the perspective of IR studies and to evaluate the prevalence of MN in the field by the quantification of selected works. To achieve these goals, the article, firstly, recapitulates the general MN literature and critically evaluates this discussion in IR. Later, it identifies the forms of MN as they appear in IR with two faces: Level of analysis (nation-as-arena) and unit of analysis (nation-as-actor). Secondly, the article proposes a method to assess the prevalence of MN through quantification. Finally, the article applies its method to IR works to address the question of how widespread MN is in academia in Turkey. The findings demonstrate the proportional pervasiveness of MN within the IR community of Turkey, which is part of the “periphery” in the discipline. The findings also let us draw some hypothetical conclusions.
Topic:: International Relations, Nationalism, Quantitative, Academia, and Methodology
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

249. Assessing military cyber maturity: strategy, institutions and capability

Author:: Greg Austin and Jason Blessing
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Few governments have reached an enduring consensus on just how quickly and how deeply reforms to their military cyber forces must be made. While consensus points have been reached, these are usually tested within a short period of time by international circumstances and technological trends. The main dilemma is whether military cyber strategies and capabilities need more than routine development as just one more element of military power, or whether they warrant radical development pathways and a higher priority than others. One of the most profound influences on the evolution of a country’s military cyber forces and strategies is politics. This paper offers insights into how the governance and organisational factors of domestic politics facilitate or inhibit the dissemination of cyber concepts and capabilities throughout military forces beyond the main signals or cyber intelligence agency. There are at least three reasons to analyse military cyber maturity. The countries currently pursuing such capabilities are not satisfied with the development levels in policy and strategy they have so far reached. There is increasing potential for crippling cyber attacks on key elements of military capability or supporting infrastructure. And no country has yet succeeded in the broad dissemination of cyber capabilities through its armed forces in ways that leading military planners would like. Few governments have reached an enduring consensus on just how quickly and how deeply reforms in the armed forces must be made to satisfy national security needs. While consensus points have been reached, these are usually tested within a short period of time by inter-national circumstances and technological trends. The main dilemma is whether military cyber strategies and capabilities need more than routine development as just one more element of military power, akin to artillery or submarines; or whether they are sufficiently transformative of military power to warrant radical development pathways and a higher priority than others. This paper provides an impact matrix which can be used by governments, their armed forces and research analysts to understand the ways in which military cyber reforms can be facilitated or inhibited by governance and organisational processes.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. Military ambitions and competition in space: the role of alliances

Author:: Greg Austin, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, and Tim Wright
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Emerging trends in space ambitions and capabilities of major state actors have given renewed urgency to efforts by NATO and other coalitions to build stronger alliance relations to secure shared interests in space. This report reviews the military ambitions, operations and capabilities of leading and aspiring space powers in order to assess their likely impact on alliances, partnerships or other national-security coalitions. China wants to overtake Russia as a space power by 2035 and become at least a co-equal with the United States by 2045. For its part, Russia is determined to maintain its standing as a space power. Both are testing the boundaries of the existing order in space through various actions, including weapons testing, and both are keen to demonstrate that they now have the capabilities to attack adversary space assets. Partly in response to this, in 2020 the US declared its intention to radically reshape the operating environment of space to better meet its interests, while its allies and partners have announced new space ambitions as well. India and Japan are setting new strategic goals for space policy in response to China’s threatening behaviour. France is positioning itself to climb higher up the ladder of military space power, while the United Kingdom and Germany have set new aspirations for economic gain and further influence on the diplomatic aspects of space. In this environment, military alliances have become more prominent in shaping space policy. The US has stepped up its engagement with other governments, either through existing alliances or new partnerships, to secure its interests. China and Russia, which have few allies of relevance, except perhaps each other, are concentrating on constraining the effectiveness of the United States’ alliances. The three space powers harbour renewed fears of technological surprise by their rivals, and this makes sharing research on space warfare among allies more important than ever. For example, testing of the most visible space weapons, direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, is escalating – and this is now only one of more than 20 forms of attack on space assets being tested or already in place. But there remain questions about how to achieve scale and military effect using all these methods for wartime operations, including kinetic ASAT weapons: would China or Russia be able to launch successful attacks against the entire military satellite fleet of the US (all 173 units) in the opening stages of a war? Assuming they could not, what proportion of the fleet would have to be disabled for the attack to have a positive military or strategic effect for the attacker?
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Space, Strategic Competition, and Territory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

251. Internal Control in Intelligence Services

Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: First, a lack of effective internal control prevents external oversight bodies, such as parliamentary committees, from fulfilling their role effectively. Intelligence service managers play a crucial role in facilitating scrutiny by oversight bodies not only by ensuring that major infractions are reported to the appropriate authority, but also by creating an environment that encourages cooperation with oversight bodies. Second, while transparency is essential to maintaining democratic control of government, intelligence services require a significant degree of secrecy to be effective. Consequently, intelligence services are subject to highly restricted oversight, unlike other public institutions. Effective internal control is therefore essential to rectify this inherent (and unavoidable) imbalance by ensuring that the day-to-day work of intelligence services is carried out in accordance with the law and with respect for human rights. Third, to avoid undue influence and ensure independent, objective analysis, intelligence services must retain a degree of autonomy from the executive. Executive control over intelligence services is therefore sometimes less pronounced, meaning that effective internal control is vital to ensuring intelligence services act within the rule of law. For the above reasons, intelligence services should be subject to both effective oversight and internal control. This Thematic Brief addresses the latter by examining internal control systems used in Euro-Atlantic countries.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

252. Accountability Keywords

Author:: Jonathan Fox
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: ‘What counts’ as accountability, and who decides? Accountability is often treated as a magic bullet, an all-purpose solution to a very wide range of problems—from corrupt politicians or the quality of public service provision to persistent injustice and impunity. The concept has become shorthand to refer to diverse efforts to address problems with the exercise of power. In practice, the accountability idea is malleable, ambiguous — and contested. This working paper unpacks diverse understandings of accountability ideas, using the ‘keywords’ approach. This tradition takes everyday big ideas whose meanings are often taken for granted and makes their subtexts explicit. The proposition here is that ambiguous or contested language can either constrain or enable possible strategies for promoting accountability. After all, different potential coalition partners may use the same term with different meanings—or may use different terms to communicate the same idea. Indeed, the concept’s fundamental ambiguity is a major reason why it can be difficult to communicate ideas about accountability across disciplines, cultures, and languages. The goal here is to inform efforts to find common ground between diverse potential constituencies for accountable governance. This analysis is informed by dialogue with advocates and reformers from many countries and sectors, many of whom share their ideas in blogposts on the Accountability Keywords website (see also #AccountabilityKeyword on social media). Both the working paper and blogposts reflect on accountability-related words and sayings that resonate with popular cultures, to get a better handle on what sticks. The format of the working paper is nonlinear, designed so that readers can go right to the keywords that spark their interest: The introduction maps the landscape of accountability keywords. Section 2 addresses what counts as accountability? Section 3 identifies big concepts that overlap with accountability but are not synonyms- such as good governance, democracy, responsiveness and responsibility. Section 4 shows the relevance of accountability adjectives by spelling out different ways in which the idea is understood. Section 5 unpacks widely used, emblematic keywords in the field. Section 6 considers more specialized keywords, focusing on examples that serve as shorthand for big ideas within specific communities of practice. Section 7 brings together a range of widely-used accountability sayings, from the ancient to the recently-invented—illustrating the enduring and diverse nature of accountability claims. Section 8 makes a series of propositions for discussion.
Topic:: Corruption, Accountability, and Keywords
Political Geography:: Global Focus

253. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Decolonizing International Development

Author:: Tamara White, Aisha White, Gabrielle B. Gueye, Daniet Moges, and Eliza Gueye
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: This series explores a handful of scenarios where colonial legacies surface in international development and humanitarian aid work, from staffing and institution building to food aid and global tourism. Exploring these topics and seeking to deconstruct the systems and structures that impede success in development and humanitarian efforts is critically important in ensuring that we ultimately meet global goals and restore integrity to our sector. Many believe international development and humanitarian aid are irreconcilable and that this work is an extension of colonialism, but our constituency believes that there is hope in transforming the sector and shifting power to those who should rightfully own this work and reap the benefits of development.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Tourism, Culture, Neoliberalism, Decolonization, Institutions, COVID-19, and Food Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

254. From Passive Owners to Planet Savers? Asset Managers, Carbon Majors and the Limits of Sustainable Finance

Author:: Joseph Baines and Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This article examines the role of the Big Three asset management firms — BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street — in corporate environmental governance. Specifically, it charts the Big Three’s relationships with the public–owned Carbon Majors: a small group of fossil fuels, cement and mining companies responsible for the bulk of industrial greenhouse gas emissions. It finds that the Big Three much more often than not oppose rather than support shareholder resolutions aimed at improving environmental governance. Notably, this is even the case with the Big Three’s environmental, social and governance funds. A more fine–gained analysis shows that the combined voting decisions of the Big Three are more likely to lead to the failure than to the success of environmental resolutions and that, whether they succeed or fail, these resolutions tend to be narrow in scope and piecemeal in nature. Based on these findings, the article raises serious doubts about the Big Three’s credentials as environmental stewards.
Topic:: Environment, Finance, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Corporate Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

255. Financial eschatology and the libidinal economy of leverage

Author:: Amin Samman and Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Apocalyptic thinking has a long religious and political tradition, but what place does it occupy within the temporal universe of contemporary capitalism? In this essay, we use the figure of the eschaton to draw out the loaded and ambiguous character of the future as it emerges through the condition of indebtedness. This entails a departure from political economy accounts of capitalist futurity, which stress the structural logic of financial speculation, in favour of an existential account that begins instead with the cosmology of money and debt. We argue that finance capital’s fixation on the future has produced a very specific form of apocalyptic imagination, characteristic of financial society and built on a libidinal economy of leverage. Rather than offering an ecstatic end to the global process of financialization, financial eschatologies bind the contemporary subject to debt and indebtedness to the very end: an endless apocalypse, premised on the ends of finance itself.
Topic:: Debt, Finance, Money, Eschatology, Futurity, Leverage, and Libidinal Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

256. Shared Human Values and the Great Powers’ Competition: Trends in the Evolution of the International Relations System

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: Unless we change and improve the quality of the international relations system (IRS) – the political toolbox for building a community with a shared future for mankind, for more effective global governance and for a more balanced global partnership for development, we shall miss the historic chance and still open window of opportunity to reach these lofty goals. How to shape such a better functioning IRS? What are its invariant characteristics in the second decade of the 21st century?
Topic:: International Relations, Governance, International Relations Theory, Strategic Competition, and Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

257. The Development Response to Kleptocracy and Strategic Corruption

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Kleptocracies do not stop at their own borders. The same actors, networks, tactics, and resources that they wield to prevent democracy and rule of law from sprouting at home are also repurposed for foreign aggression. While cronies, oligarchs, and lesser operatives do get rich in the process, “strategic corruption” is chiefly a geopolitical weapon directed by autocratic regimes to secretly undermine the sovereignty of other countries. The three most common manifestations of strategic corruption vary on a spectrum of how directly and boldly they violate sovereignty and subvert democratic processes. Starting with the most indirect and chronic form of strategic corruption, Russia and China invest “corrosive capital” throughout Eastern Europe and the Belt and Road Initiative, respectively. They use corrupt patronage networks and opaque business dealings to spread their kleptocratic model of authoritarian governance. Those corrupt investments are usually also supported by tactics of “malign influence,” like when a minister or politician receives bribes or economic threats until they censor their political speech, advance a foreign policy initiative, or otherwise subordinate the legitimate sovereign interests entrusted to them by their own people in favor of the interests of a foreign power. Finally, the most direct and acute form of strategic corruption involves financial methods of election interference and other tactics of corrupting democratic processes. Often funded with the proceeds of kleptocracy, election interference through covert political financing has become the bailiwick of Kremlin-directed oligarchs. Separate from those three manifestations of strategic corruption—corrosive capital, malign influence, and election interference—China and Russia try to hide their dirty money and malign activities by pressuring foreign journalists into silence through surveillance, thuggery, and lawsuits. Western foreign assistance has not yet offered a coherent response to kleptocracy and strategic corruption, but that is starting to change under the Biden administration. Building resilience to this transnational threat through foreign aid will require four new approaches that are more political and coordinated than traditional development assistance. First, aid should be informed by local political analysis. More important and less used than technical reviews of laws and institutions, political analysis should center anti-corruption efforts around known corrupt activity. That starts by asking sensitive questions about which individuals, institutions, and sectors are the most corrupt, how extensively their networks of wealth and power span, and which corrupt figures must be held accountable to thoroughly purge grand corruption. Second, aid should be responsive to political shifts, scaling up and down, respectively, in response to windows of opportunity for anti-corruption reform and times of backsliding toward kleptocracy. Third, aid responses to kleptocracy should be coordinated at the regional and global levels, similarly to how grand corruption operates across borders through transnational networks of actors and tools. Fourth, anti-corruption programming should be deeply integrated across the traditional sectors of assistance, particularly health, infrastructure, energy, climate, and security. Some of these new approaches are already being prioritized under the Biden administration’s new strategy to combat corruption, particularly coordinating across tools and sectors to fight transnational corruption. But operationalizing this mission will be no small endeavor, given that anti-corruption assistance is delivered through a notoriously technocratic and apolitical bureaucracy built during the Cold War to aid socioeconomic development in individual countries steadily over decades. But getting this right offers the key to defending democracies from autocratic aggression, showing how democracy can deliver, and even helping bring foreign policy and domestic politics into alignment for the first time in a generation.
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Finance, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus

258. Theorizing The State and Its Autonomy in Western IR: A Comparative Analysis of Realist and Historical Sociological Approaches.

Author:: Alper Kaliber
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This article examines how the state, its core characteristics, domestic and international agential capacities are conceptualized by the realist paradigms of IR and Weberian Historical Sociology (WHS) as its critique. In doing this, the study seeks to address the pitfalls and deficiencies of the realist conception of the state and unravel limitations and strengths of WHS to remedy these Realist deficiencies to reach a more sophisticated theory of the state. It also calls for a serious engagement between WHS and post-positivist IR to theorise the historically and politically constructed nature of state identity and to transcend the internal/international divide characterising the Realist epistemology
Topic:: Weberian Historical Sociology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

259. Theorizing The State and Its Autonomy in Western IR: A Comparative Analysis of Realist and Historical Sociological Approaches

Author:: Alper Kaliber
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This article examines how the state, its core characteristics, domestic and international agential capacities are conceptualized by the realist paradigms of IR and Weberian Historical Sociology (WHS) as its critique. In doing this, the study seeks to address the pitfalls and deficiencies of the realist conception of the state and unravel limitations and strengths of WHS to remedy these Realist deficiencies to reach a more sophisticated theory of the state. It also calls for a serious engagement between WHS and post-positivist IR to theorise the historically and politically constructed nature of state identity and to transcend the internal/international divide characterising the Realist epistemology.
Topic:: International Relations, Realism, State, Autonomy, and Weberian Historical Sociology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

260. New Rules, Same Practice? Analysing UN Development System Reform Effects at the Country Level

Author:: Silke Weinlich, Max Otto Baumann, Maria Cassens-Sasse, Rebecca Hadank-Rauch, Franziska Leibbrandt, Marie Pardey, Manuel Simon, and Anina Strey
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: With its unique multilateral assets, the United Nations Development System (UNDS) should be playing a key role in assisting governments and other stakeholders with their implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. But this requires change. Despite improvements in recent decades, too often the UNDS has continued to act as a loose assemblage of competing entities, undermining its effective support for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) implementation. It is against that backdrop that the UNDS has been undergoing an extensive reform – that was decided on in 2018 and has been implemented since 2019 – to provide more coherent, integrated support in line with requirements of the 2030 Agenda to United Nations (UN) programme countries. What effects have the reforms yielded at the country level? This paper presents the main findings, conclusions and recommendations from our research on UNDS reform implementation. It does so with a focus on reform-induced changes towards what we call a strengthened, collective offer at the country level. Overall, our research shows that reform implementation is moving the needle on the quality of the collective offer. In particular, with regard to its institutional element, we observed that the reform has fostered change in how UN country teams work together that is in line with what the 2030 Agenda demands. Institutional changes allow for increased cross-organisational and cross-sectoral coordination, which could potentially lead to increased policy coherence. But while we see substantial progress, it remains incomplete, fragile and subject to structural limitations. A more critical picture emerges with regard to change in the substantive component of the collective offer in the areas of SDG integration, cross-border work and normative approaches. While there were positive examples, we found little evidence of a systematic repositioning in these areas. The adjustment of the UNDS to the 2030 Agenda does not (yet) meet the expectations derived from the UN’s own reform ambition.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Reform, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

261. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from State-Owned Enterprises: A Preliminary Inventory

Author:: Alex Clark and Philippe Benoit
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in the production of goods and services across many of the world’s largest economies, particularly in electricity generation, oil and gas, and heavy industry. SOEs (defined in this report as companies for which 50 percent or more of voting shares are held by a government) are also major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The governments that control these SOEs are also signatories to the Paris Agreement on climate change. State ownership provides these governments with a major direct point of control over the climate and energy outcomes of these companies, both in terms of reducing emissions and directing future investment into low-carbon technologies and infrastructure. Improving the measurement of SOEs’ contribution to both national and global-level emissions provides important information to help understand to what extent SOEs should be targeted and to design strategies to maximize their potential role in the broader energy transition. This report provides an accounting of direct emissions associated with SOEs globally. It is challenging to comprehensively identify every SOE, as the total is estimated at well over 100,000. In addition, most identified SOEs do not disclose their emissions nor are estimates of these emissions available in the public domain. Despite these limitations, data compiled for this report covering almost 300 major SOEs suggest that SOEs globally are responsible for at least 7.49 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) annually in direct (Scope 1) emissions. While the true scale of SOE-related emissions is likely to be substantially higher, particularly when accounting for national oil companies and iron and steel manufacturers that do not currently report their emissions, this figure is over 1 GtCO2e greater than various previous estimates, and larger than the total annual emissions of any country except China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

262. Tallying Updated NDCs to Gauge Emissions Reductions in 2030 and Progress toward Net Zero

Author:: James Glynn, Kristin Smith, Melissa Lott, Lilly Yejin Lee, Jordan Shenhar, and Pekun Bakare
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The Paris Agreement included two particularly crucial innovations for supporting greenhouse gas emissions reductions: a voluntary, bottom-up nationally determined contribution (NDC) and a ratchet mechanism. The latter change meant that, in the run-up to the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Glasgow last fall, countries prepared updated NDCs—specific commitments to reduce emissions by 2030—that outlined their increased ambition. After the adoption of the Glasgow Climate Pact, many observers have focused on what these NDCs, as well as countries’ pledges to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by certain dates, could mean for the world’s ability to limit global temperature rise to well below 2° Celsius—the central goal of the Paris Agreement. But another critical question remains: how would these targets and ambitions drive near-term emissions reductions. Understanding the answer can provide insights to investors, utilities, or others with decision time horizons of 10–15 years and that wish to align with net-zero ambitions. This report, part of the energy systems modeling program at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, aims to assess the alignment between updated NDCs and current net-zero pledges for policy makers and industry leaders to gain insight into their own national and corporate decarbonization outlooks. It considers all classes of NDCs, including: 1) percentage reduction in emissions relative to a historical base year level, 2) percentage reduction compared to a 2030 business-as-usual scenario, and 3) reduction in emissions intensity of gross domestic product. It presents an estimate of the percentage reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 2015 to 2030 for all commitments outlined in NDCs for countries that also have a net-zero target. Overall, this analysis finds that the NDCs of economies with 2050 net-zero pledges would lead to a 27 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, relative to 2015. However, countries with post-2050 net-zero pledges are projected to increase their emissions by 10 percent between 2015 and 2030, lowering the net global emission reduction to 9 percent over this period.
Topic:: Environment, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

263. Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices

Author:: Christof Ruhl
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Sanctions against the Russian Federation are developing so fast that it is hard to keep track of them and even harder to see a consistent narrative as events unfold. But there is one. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of energy and commodities. A persistent balance of payment surplus is the source of its financial strength, in terms of both current income and the financial assets previously accumulated by “fortress Russia.” Oil, gas, and coal exports constitute the most valuable revenue streams and are therefore prime targets of sanctions policy.[1] The problem is that energy sanctions will backfire badly if they lead to price increases large enough to derail the economic performance of sanctioning countries.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

264. Hydrogen: A Hot Commodity Lacking Sufficient Statistics

Author:: Anne-Sophie Corbeau
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Hydrogen has become one of the most debated topics in the energy industry. As an energy vector,[1] hydrogen has been touted as a possible path to decarbonize energy sectors that are considered difficult to electrify, such as heavy-duty transport. While hydrogen expansion faces challenges associated with introducing it into new sectors and decreasing the cost of green (or low-emission) hydrogen, major economies such as China, the EU, and the United States have been looking to integrate its use into their decarbonization strategies.[2] Demand for hydrogen could more than quintuple in a global net-zero-carbon-emissions scenario.[3] Given that hydrogen’s role is expected to increase significantly over the coming decade and expand into new sections of the energy system, it is essential to have more clarity on its current and future demand profile. The energy community is used to relying on statistics for more traditional fuels such as oil or natural gas; they enable analysts and investors to follow market developments, identify trends, and anticipate investment needs and opportunities. For policy makers, they can help to measure progress toward decarbonization objectives or against targets set within their hydrogen strategies as well as help them compare their activity with other countries’ developments. Understanding demand, production, and trade through data transparency is also a key element in energy security.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Global Focus

265. Commitment to Control Weaponised Artificial Intelligence: A Step Forward for the OSCE and European Security

Author:: Anna Nadibaidze
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Recent technological and political developments in OSCE participating States suggest a strong interest in pursuing, testing and using weaponised AI and weapons systems with increasingly autonomous features controlled by algorithms. In May 2021 Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had begun producing combat robots “capable of fighting on their own”,1 while the French Army is planning to introduce robotic systems by 2040.2 The United Kingdom (UK) government has stated its objective of achieving “a leading role in critical and emerging technologies”3 and has established a Defence Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy Unit to better understand them.4 In the United States, the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence has urged the government “not [to] be a witness to the AI revolution in military affairs”.5 The global discussion about autonomous weapons systems is often framed in a futuristic way and focuses on lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) – colloquially called “killer robots” – or the “AI arms race”. But weaponised AI is already a reality of European security. Thus far participating States have been reluctant to utilise the OSCE platform to address the risks caused by the increasing autonomy of weapons systems. Building on this issue, this essay intends to address the following questions: (1) how does the lack of regulation of weaponised AI affect security and stability in Europe? and (2) what role can the OSCE play in mitigating the risks related to weaponised AI?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

266. Blockchain Technology: An Innovative Policy Tool for Enhancing Conventional Arms Control and Verification

Author:: Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Blockchain has the potential to revolutionise our societies by radically transforming multiple sectors ranging from financial services to health care, and from international trade to logistics.1 Governments, businesses, research centres, and international organisations are becoming increasingly interested in this cutting-edge technology because it can be utilised to provide a decentralised system for data management with high levels of transparency, reliability, and security.2 Recently, inter- governmental organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and the OSCE have emphasised the relevance of blockchain, which can be utilised to improve international security.3 Blockchain has already proved that it can effectively enhance human security. For instance, the World Food Programme has pioneered a blockchain-based humanitarian aid programme to support refugees in Jordan with the use of cryptocurrencies.4 Similarly, the International Committee of the Red Cross has developed a distributed ledger technology (DLT)-based local trading system in Kenya to help fragile communities.5 In 2015 the UN International Children’s Emergency Fund even launched “Unicoin” – its own cryptocurrency – which children from poor families can exchange for goods. Although researchers have been exploring the impact of this technology on multiple fields, the implications of blockchain-based systems for CAC are still under-explored. This paper aims to fill this research gap by demonstrating that blockchain can play a crucial role in enhancing CAC monitoring and verification. It argues that blockchain offers a positive behavioural model and has advantageous practical implications for conventional arms control. The analysis is guided by the following research questions: (1) what psychological impact does blockchain have on confidence building? and (2) how do smart contracts enhance CAC?
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, and Blockchain
Political Geography:: Global Focus

267. Government Internet Shutdowns Are Changing. How Should Citizens and Democracies Respond?

Author:: Steven Feldstein
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Governments worldwide continue to deploy internet shutdowns and network disruptions to quell mass protests, forestall election losses, reinforce military coups, or cut off conflict areas from the outside world. Data from the past few years show that incidences of global shutdowns have remained steadily high: 196 documented incidents in 2018, 213 incidents in 2019, and 155 in 2020. The first five months of 2021 recorded fifty shutdown incidents.1 Government-instigated internet shutdowns largely took place in relation to five event types: mass demonstrations, military operations and coups, elections, communal violence and religious holidays, and school exams. As Clément Voule, the United Nations special rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association, pointedly observes: “Shutdowns are lasting longer, becoming harder to detect and targeting particular social media and messaging applications and specific localities and communities.”2 Events in Russia have put a finer point on internet shutdown trends. On March 4, 2022, Roskomnadzor, the Russian internet regulator, announced that it would block Facebook and Twitter and would ban new uploads to TikTok.3 On March 14, it added Instagram to the banned list.4 Russian authorities have also restricted access to a slew of news websites, including the BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Voice of America. Roskomnadzor claimed these measures were enacted in response to new limits imposed by platforms on Russian propaganda outlets—accusing Facebook of “discrimination.”5 The Kremlin’s crackdown is an ominous signal about where the shutdown struggle is headed in authoritarian countries. Despite these bleak trends, there is a growing international consensus—at least among liberal democracies—that protecting internet access is integrally linked to freedoms of expression and association and forms a crucial part of the global democracy and human rights agenda. This paper picks up on this emerging norm and probes several key questions: What can citizens do to evade authoritarian controls and regain internet access? How can democratic governments support these efforts and push back against governments that shut down and block the internet? The short answer is that there is a multitude of responses available to democracies and civil society organizations to push back against internet blackouts and network disruptions. Democracies can exert meaningful pressure against repressive governments to ease internet blocks, and citizens are able to exercise creative options to circumvent internet controls. The paper walks through different tools available to citizens to evade internet controls. It examines where internet shutdown trends are headed and incentives for particular regimes to adopt new modes of censorship. It then presents a multifaceted strategy for democracies, civil society organizations, and technology developers and companies to counter internet shutdowns.
Topic:: Government, Science and Technology, Democracy, and Internet
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

268. Tracking Funding for VAW Research In LMICS

Author:: Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: Violence against women (VAW) is a global phenomenon that undermines the fundamental human rights of women, causes irreparable physical and emotional harm, even death, and impacts individuals and communities. While the prevalence of VAW has been widely acknowledged - with the introduction of international and country- specific condemnations and law reform - the question is whether the investment into addressing VAW and understanding what works and what doesn’t matches its severity and ubiquity. Existing literature indicates that, despite the prevalence of VAW, it is often deprioritised as a funding issue (Equality Institute, 2019). Furthermore, where funding is being provided, research and programmes addressing VAW are disproportionately funded, conceptualised and carried out by institutions in high-income countries (HICs) (Amarante, et al 2021; Olufadewa et al 2021; Chersich et al 2016). This ultimately means that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), who are largely donor dependent, are beholden to wealthier countries, with a resultant scarcity of knowledge production from and for LMICs in addressing country-specific VAW issues. Moreover, little consideration appears to be given to both the importance of and the investment in research as essential to addressing VAW. To effectively prevent and respond to VAW, dedicated qualitative and quantitative research is required to understand the phenomenon, building an evidence-base to underlie efficacious interventions. The research funding ecosystem for research and development is highly inequitable, favouring HIC based researchers and this situation is not helped by the fact that investments in research and development by LMICs governments are low (Erondu et al, 2021). The question is then, does the status of funding for research on VAW mirror the status of funding for research and development in LMICs more broadly? This study thus seeks to provide an overview of the funding flows allocated towards research in the field of VAW in LMICs from key donors as well as national governments. In doing so, the study underscores the inequitable distribution of resources and the lack of prioritisation of VAW - and research in particular - as a funding issue.
Topic:: Gender Based Violence, Violence, Sexual Violence, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

269. Funding Ethically: Better Funding for Violence Against Women and Violence Against Children Research in Lower and Middle Income Countries

Author:: Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) has, over the last 12 months, been involved in several processes that address the issue of more and better funding for research on violence against women in all their diversity and violence against all children in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). For SVRI, ‘better’ funding for research is grounded in feminist principles, acknowledges, and addresses power dynamics, involves honest, transformative relationships between donors and grantees and creates accessible and equitable processes that support priority driven research in LMICs conducted by LMIC researchers. Throughout 2020 we co-facilitated in a participatory process that culminated in the launch of the global shared research agenda (GSRA), which will be used to advocate for more resources to be put towards building the knowledge base and addressing key research gaps in the field of violence against women (VAW). Simultaneous work is being carried out to identify streams of funding that can be utilised to resource this research agenda and analyse key issues with existing funding mechanisms. These two pieces of work deal with what needs to be funded and where the money is for this.1 We hope the guidance note for funders on ethical and coordinated funding for research on VAW and violence against children (VAC) in LMICs - will be a contribution to advocacy on how resources need to be allocated.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, Violence, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

270. Primer on International Investment Treaties and Investor-State Dispute Settlement

Author:: Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: What is Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)? FDI occurs when an individual or corporation in one country (“home state”) sets up or buys all or a significant part of a company that is incorporated in a different country (“host state”). Companies invest abroad to access land-based resources including mining, more affordable labour for instance in manufacturing, and new markets, among other reasons. Many countries seek to attract FDI in order to realize benefits in the form of tax revenues, technology transfer, jobs, and other economic linkages. The images below illustrate the concept of FDI, as well as some of the sectors and industries into which it flows.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

271. Unlocking the Power of Reformers to Achieve Better Progress on Extractives Governance

Author:: Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: This project arose out of conversations over the past few years between CCSI staff and high-level officials in extractive industry (EI) ministries in Africa, the Cauca- sus, and Latin America. After describing the need for an array of genuine reforms in the governance of their re- spective countries’ energy and mining sectors, these of- ficials expressed their frustration at the resistance they encountered from within their own government when pushing for reform. These pressures come from above and below.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Reform, Sustainability, and Progressivism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

272. PLUS Politics: Tackling the EIA Impact Gap

Author:: Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Oil, gas, and mining projects can be profoundly disruptive to lives and livelihoods and damaging to air, water, soil, and vegetation. Evidence of this abounds across the world, from the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Mexico to Brumadinho, Brazil, and Porgera, Papua New Guinea. Understanding and addressing the social and environmental repercussions of EI development projects is crucial for avoiding or effectively managing such negative outcomes and fostering sustainable development. To date, environmental impact assessment (EIA) processes have been the cornerstone of efforts to identify and address social and environmental impacts of proposed development projects, including extractive industry projects and associated infrastructure. In practice, however, crucial aspects of these processes — the production of EIAs, consultations around the findings and implications of reports, and the actual use of the content of reports to inform key project decisions — are at times considerably distorted by power and incentive dynamics rooted in the political economy of a given context. The result is too often watered-down “box-ticking” exercises in which the impact of the EIA process on actual social and environmental protection can be greatly reduced. Technocratic approaches that emphasize best practices and capacity will not improve the performance of EIA processes on their own. Politically savvy approaches are needed to address the political challenges associated with EIAs, as even the most technically sound and capacitated EIA processes can be derailed by political factors. This brief is based on a longer chapter on the topic produced for a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) publication on development corridors.1 It aims to present the gaps between various aspects of the theory and practice of EIAs, explore some of the ways in which political factors may be contributing to these gaps, and suggest how future work on social and environmental protection and management might better account for political context in hopes of achieving greater impact.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Mining
Political Geography:: Global Focus

273. Retail Central Bank Digital Currency: Has Its Time Come?

Author:: Pierre L. Siklos
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: As central banks around the world prepare to launch central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), this paper looks at issues surrounding a retail version of CBDCs that would complement notes and coins for consumers. To build the public’s trust in this type of digital currency, concerns such as loss of privacy and security of financial transactions must first be addressed. In addition to these concerns, CBDCs carry the potential risks of overburdening central banks and disrupting cross-border transactions. These and other challenges can be overcome by ensuring the right regulatory and supervisory measures are in place before CBDCs take hold.
Topic:: Regulation, Finance, Central Bank, Banking, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

274. The Causes and Consequences of Refugee Flows: A Contemporary Re-Analysis

Author:: Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: The world faces a forcible displacement crisis. Across the world, tens of millions of individuals have been forced from their homes and across international boundaries. The causes and consequences of refugee flows are, therefore, the subjects of significant social science inquiry. Unfortunately, historical lack of reliable data on actual refugee flows has significantly limited empirical inferences on these topics. Using data newly released by the United Nations on annual dyadic flows, we replicate twenty-seven studies published in economics and political science journals on the causes and consequences of these flows. We extend fourteen of these. We find that some of the causes of flows described in the literature are less substantively and/or statistically significant than previously reported while others are more. Generally, with some exceptions, we find that previously reported effects of refugees on security conditions are attenuated, suggesting that the literature’s predominant focus on refugees as sources of violent instability may be overstated.
Topic:: Civil War, Terrorism, and Violence
Political Geography:: United States and Global Focus

275. Creating an Enabling Environment for Sustainable Water Infrastructure Financing

Author:: Conor M. Savoy and Janina Staguhn
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Water presents a significant global development challenge as crises over resources and access to clean water are becoming more extreme due to climate change. To reach the most disadvantaged communities in rural areas, adequate infrastructure is going to be integral. It is estimated that water infrastructure will require an additional $22.5 trillion by 2050, and to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, financing would need to triple to $114 billion per year. As with other forms of infrastructure, water requires more than simply building reservoirs, pipes, and holding tanks. For true sustainable infrastructure, donors and local governments should also invest in support to maintain infrastructure and create a regulatory environment that enables continued improvement. To successfully finance water infrastructure, there must be an understanding of what the current financing landscape looks like and how the United States, its Group of Seven (G7) allies, and multilateral partners should prioritize financing, especially on a local level.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, Water, Infrastructure, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

276. Making Energy Resilient: State Strategies, Progress, and Opportunities

Author:: Morgan Higman
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Amidst energy transitions and the rising impacts of climate change, resilience is a growing part of state energy strategies. But there is relatively little consolidated information describing what states are doing to build adaptive capacities in the power sector. This report fills this gap. It examines how resilience is addressed in planning and policy resources from a selection of representative states. These resources describe anticipated hazards and vulnerabilities, use-cases for emerging clean energy technologies, and broader efforts to create new resilience institutions and authorities. Though resilience garners considerable policy attention, most state initiatives are not guided by well-defined performance goals or measures or a plan that provides an overarching vision for grid resilience. This paper highlights challenges in these areas and describes new, innovative, and replicable approaches to promote more complete and robust resilience strategies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Governance, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Global Focus

277. Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention: Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:: Mollie Zapata
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: This report compiles essays from several leading experts who participated in the seminar series. We asked them to reflect on one or more key themes and offer recommendations for research and/or policy initiatives that could help current and future leaders address mass atrocities. The collection of essays comprises diverse perspectives and spans reflections on everything from technical approaches to forecasting to practical recommendations on communicating risk to the overall efficacy of forecasting projects. Quscondy-Mohamed Abdulshafi provides recommendations for how mass atrocity monitoring and preventive interventions can make use of social media-generated big data and artificial intelligence (AI), and suggests the need for a strategic collaboration between social media companies and mass atrocity research institutions. Chiara De Franco discusses warning as persuasion, including the importance of clarity and specificity in the content of the warnings, the relationship between the warners and those expected to act on the warning, and the importance of developing a warning strategy that fits into the “swirl of intelligence” continuously confronting policy makers. Håvard Hegre outlines and weighs the benefits of different prediction targets. He argues that the field should move towards “continuous multi-period incidence” (CMPI) targets to avoid arbitrary coding thresholds, enable models to better use available information, and allow for a more nuanced approach to uncertainty in evaluating and describing results. Victor Okorie addresses the role of researchers in situations where atrocity risk is present, and describes the ethical and logistical challenges of those seeking to conduct research where gatekeepers and conditions demand loyalty to the state. In such circumstances, Okorie argues that researchers are obligated to take on an activist role, portray both victims and perpetrators, and strive for objectivity and reflexivity. Clionadh Raleigh questions the assumption of many early warning and prediction models that more accurate, timely warnings will result in the prevention of conflict. She argues that global models attempt to create consistency across cases where none actually exists, and that projects' focus on catastrophic events misses the need for response to low-level threats. She recommends a revised approach to early warning focused on studying each unique environment. Paul Slovic provides an overview of three psychological mechanisms that impede the impact and effectiveness of early warnings: psychic numbing, pseudoinefficacy, and the prominence effect. He concludes with recommendations for those who have been (or may become) victims of atrocity crimes, government officials, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the public.
Topic:: Political Violence, Social Media, Risk, Atrocities, and Monitoring
Political Geography:: Global Focus

278. Boom-bust Cycles Revisited: The Role of Credit Supply

Author:: Hyo Sang Kim, Sangyup Choi, and Yuri Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study investigates the impacts of credit supply on economic growth and financial crisis. Excess credit supply can make the economy and financial markets more vulnerable. While credit supply can drive economic growth by reallocating resources, it can also make the economy and financial markets more fragile. Asset prices sharply fall when deleveraging occurs in the case of a negative shock to the financial or real sector in a system where credit is excessively supplied. Furthermore, economic activity might be substantially reduced, extending the length and breadth of the recession.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, and Credit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

279. Changes, Challenges and Implications of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Directions in the Post Pandemic Era

Author:: Sungbae An
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: COVID-19 has changed the way of our lives since it started emerging as a pandemic early 2020. The global experience leave a trauma, and eventually work as a main driver to reconsider and improve our system. The need for change becomes even bigger as the pandemic continues beyond initial expectations. With that, we are now entering the era of the great transformation. The brief focuses on examining the policy environment changed by the COVID-19 pandemic and analyzing the points to be considered when implementing future fiscal and monetary policies.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economy, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

280. COVID-19 and Global Value Chain

Author:: Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The ongoing spread of COVID-19 has increased biological risks from infectious diseases and limits the movement of human and material resources. Various evidence supports that there is a significant correlation between COVID-19 and the globalized production network. This study aims to analyze the changes in the global value chain structure “before and after” the spread of COVID-19 and derive government-level countermeasures and policy tasks using quantitative data, empirical analysis, case study, and corporate survey.
Topic:: Economy, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Korea and Global Focus

281. Impacts of New International Tax System on Multinational Firms’ FDI

Author:: Sangjun Yea
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In this study, I present a theoretical model to quantitatively assess the economics impact of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2, especially focusing on the changes in the FDI patterns of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Pillar 1 offsets the incentives of MNEs' profits-shifting for tax-planning purposes, thereby reducing the inbound FDI into the countries with low corporate income tax rates. Pillar 2 burdens MNEs with 'top-up' taxes attributed from the subsidiaries in low tax countries. As the profits after tax (PAT) of MNEs shrink at the global level, innovation and R&D investment for new products will decrease, and as a result, global FDI flows will hamper.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

282. Immigrants and COVID-19 Travel Restrictions

Author:: Young-ook Jang
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study attempts to examine the impact of the presence of foreign workers on COVID-19 related border closures. In the countries that are highly dependent on foreign workers, there have been difficulties in supplying labor due to entry restrictions and border closure during the COVID-19 pandemic. The empirical analysis shows that the entry restrictions were passively imposed where the share of immigrant is high. This trend was observed more conspicuously in high-income countries where various policy combinations could be used in addition to entry restrictions. The cost of entry restrictions could be alleviated by placing other measures which are deemed more efficient, including 3T (test, trace/isolate, treatment) strategy and Special Entry Procedure. It is necessary to develop policies to minimize negative effects on immigration and immigrants, while controlling epidemic waves at the same time.
Topic:: Immigration, COVID-19, Travel, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

283. The Winding Road to Marrakech: Lessons from the European Negotiations of the Global Compact for Migration

Author:: Lena Kainz and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: In the summer of 2018, negotiations of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration suddenly became front-page news, drawing far more attention than nonbinding UN agreements before it. The compact’s proponents argued it would help address transnational issues related to migration, while its opponents alleged it posed a threat to state sovereignty and would lead to an increase in migration to Western countries. Although the European Union was initially one of the driving forces behind the pact, as public demonstrations multiplied, these divisions culminated in the fall of the Belgian government and nine EU Member States voting against the compact or abstaining. This report from MPI's Transatlantic Council on Migration explores how the compact negotiations triggered a multilayered institutional and political crisis in the European Union. It charts how the pact became a proxy for broader debates about how external migration policy is decided within the European Union, especially when doing so touches on multiple policy areas, and about democratic accountability in handling nonbinding international agreements. This analysis, which draws in part on interviews with policymakers from EU institutions and Member States, offers lessons learned for public communications about migration policy and assesses the implications of these events for the European Union’s external migration policy, including its implementation of the compact and role in multilateral migration matters.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Governance, European Union, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

284. Coming Together or Coming Apart? A New Phase of International Cooperation on Migration

Author:: Demetrios G. Papademetriou, Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, and Kate Hooper
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The global context for international cooperation on migration has shifted in unanticipated ways since the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration was adopted in December 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, upended the migration status quo. Beginning in March 2020, countries introduced border closures or restrictions that essentially paused most forms of mobility, with significant consequences for migrants, their countries of origin, and destination countries—from stranded populations and reduced remittances, to labor shortages in key industries. While many governments’ responses to the pandemic have been unilateral and inward-looking, these challenges have underscored the importance of pursuing greater coordination on migration and mobility at the bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. Drawing on three meetings of MPI’s Transatlantic Council on Migration, this Council Statement explores the rationale for deeper cooperation on migration, the obstacles impeding it, and ways forward. It reflects on the trajectory of the Global Compact and its implementation to date, and strategies for reinvigorating international cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Governance, Law, COVID-19, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

285. Spring 2022 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:: Casey VanSise and Alan McPherson
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Strategic Visions
Institution:: Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:: News from the Director . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Spring 2022 Colloquium . . . . . . . . 2 Columnist Trudy Rubin at CENFAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Spring 2022 Prizes . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 First CENFAD Emerging Scholar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Thanks to the Davis Fellow . . . . . . 4 News from the CENFAD Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Note from the Davis Fellow . . . . . . . . 9 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Robert “Bob” Vitalis . . . . . . . 11 Dr. Elizabeth R. Varon . . . . . . . . . 15 Dr. Matthew Specter . . . . . . . . . . 19 Dr. Miguel La Serna . . . . . . . . . . 25 Dr. Paul Adler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Short Essay: “The Stable Republic of Brazil,” by Dr. Philip Evanson . . . . . 35 Book Reviews Her Cold War: Women in the U.S. Military, 1945-1980, reviewed by Ariel Natalo-Lifton . . . . . . . . . . . 40 American Exceptionalism: A New History of an Old Idea, reviewed by Graydon Dennison . . . . . . . . . 46
Topic:: Economy, History, Interview, COVID-19, Strategic Interests, and Military
Political Geography:: Brazil, Global Focus, and United States of America

286. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL

Author:: David A. Lake
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
Topic:: NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America

287. On the Horizon Vol. 4: A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation of Nuclear Professionals

Author:: Reja Younis
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2021 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates such as the future of arms control and deterrence, emerging technologies, SSBN vulnerability, public opinion, cyber norms, and the role of regional dynamics including China and India in nuclear security.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

288. Opportunities for Increased Multilateral Engagement with B3W

Author:: Conor M. Savoy and Shannon McKeown
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As the world continues to rapidly digitize and grapples with the short- and long-term impacts of climate change, new forms of innovative and resilient infrastructure are increasingly necessary. The estimated $3.3 trillion annual gap in infrastructure investment cannot be paid for with official development assistance (ODA) alone but will require significant private sector financing and local government resources. A coordinated, multi-stakeholder effort that includes governments, the private sector, and civil society is needed to leverage all available resources and funding to address these challenges as well as implement the UN quality infrastructure agenda.2 G7 countries—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—have recognized the need for a global infrastructure plan that responds to the problems of today and proactively plans for the issues of tomorrow. In June 2021, the G7 unveiled the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, which seeks to leverage the private sector for $40 trillion in infrastructure investment by 2035 under the initiative’s four pillars: (1) healthcare, (2) gender equality and equity, (3) climate and environment, and (4) digital technology. The initiative also includes several economic and trade provisions to promote greater connectivity and allow countries to benefit from this investment. The B3W strategy is designed to be inclusive and rely upon input from a whole spectrum of local organizations, donors, and recipient countries to define an infrastructure strategy, projects, and implementation priorities. The guiding principles of B3W include value-driven high standards, transparency, climate-compatible projects, private sector investment, and a commitment to multilateralism. B3W shares standards with and builds upon two previous initiatives: the Blue Dot Network (BDN) and the Better Utilization of Investment Leading to Development (BUILD) Act. BDN is a U.S.-led effort that certifies infrastructure projects against robust criteria and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. The BUILD Act is a bipartisan bill that created the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (USDFC) to introduce private sector investment in low- and lower-middle-income countries. These two initiatives have thankfully laid the groundwork for B3W’s objectives and principles. Given the initiative’s infrastructure focus, B3W is being positioned as an affirmative alternative to other state-directed infrastructure financing models, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Its emphasis on good governance, consideration of environmental and social impacts, and adherence to transparency is meant to draw a stark contrast with other models that involve more questionable labor and environmental standards, alleged corruption, and murky debt financing. B3W has an opportunity to distinguish itself as an important alternative through high standards and the buy-in of multilateral partners and stakeholders. The United States can be the driving force of this engagement through its unique ties to the UN system, including being the largest member country donor. Partnering with specialized UN agencies, committees, and related entities that work in the various B3W pillars will (1) make B3W more of a legitimate initiative with a greater global collaboration; (2) better position B3W projects to succeed with the right resources, networks, and capital; and (3) fill the knowledge and resource gap from the private sector.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Multilateralism, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

289. Reducing Methane Emissions from Global Gas

Author:: Ben Cahill
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Cutting methane emissions from oil and gas will help slow the pace of global warming, and methane is firmly on the international climate agenda. But how will progress on methane rules and regulations spread beyond Europe and North America, especially to regions where state utilities and national oil companies (NOCs) play a prominent role? And how can global gas trade—especially the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector—evolve in ways that lower methane emissions? This report outlines recent global, national, and sub-national efforts to curtail methane emissions from oil and gas. It analyzes how demand for cleaner, or “differentiated,” gas might develop, delving into the drivers for buyers and others in the gas ecosystem. It concludes with policy recommendations and suggested engagement strategies with global gas players.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

290. Patents, Pandemics, and the Private Sector: The Battle Over Public Health Norms During COVID-19

Author:: Vartika Neeraj
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the influence that private pharmaceutical companies and philanthropic foundations have on global health governance. Private actors have been able to maintain the norm of intellectual property rights, despite opposition from developing countries and growing opposition from powerful actors in developed countries. This article examines how private actors have wielded their material resources, expert authority, and discursive powers to overrule the wishes of governments. It concludes by exploring the public health consequences of their growing hold on international governance and offers some policy recommendations to mitigate distorted public health outcomes.
Topic:: International Relations, Intellectual Property/Copyright, International Development, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

291. The Future of Digital Evidence Authentication at the International Criminal Court

Author:: Chelsea Quilling
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: In the digital age, new technologies and advancements in computing power have transformed the nature of potentially relevant evidence of atrocities evaluated in international criminal law. The International Criminal Court is presently underprepared to meet the challenges of authenticating digital evidence. This paper outlines the challenges and dangers of the ICC’s current approach to digital evidence authentication and verification, explores the debate among scholars over the analysis of scientific evidence as an analogous problem, and identifies policy recommendations for improving the Court’s capacity and capability to authenticate digital evidence.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Law, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: Global Focus

292. Multilateral Trade Arrangements and Climate Provisions

Author:: Emily Benson, Sparsha Janardhan, and William Alan Reinsch
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This new paper from the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business assesses sectoral standards bodies, evaluates environmental provisions in trade agreements, and explores opportunities for addressing climate concerns in newer trade arrangements, such as the recent announcement to negotiate a deal on green steel and aluminum between the European Union and the United States. As this paper seeks to demonstrate, binding agreements with clear enforcement mechanisms are best suited for ensuring that parties meet their climate change obligations as outlined in various bilateral or multilateral agreements. Since concluding agreements that are both binding and have clear enforcement capabilities are not always possible or politically desirable, pursuing a mixed approach—one based on best practices from a diverse set of trade architectures—may be the most viable approach that produces the most tangible outcomes. This paper evaluates climate provisions in trade architectures and makes recommendations for including climate provisions, including sectoral standards, in trade arrangements in a way that encourages increased multilateral collaboration in a WTO-compliant manner.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

293. Convergence and Divergence: Multilateral Trade and Climate Agendas

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: If the international community wants to make meaningful progress ahead of the 2030 deadline—which critics argue is still too late to avert global catastrophe—major global players should work together to reduce emissions at home and abroad. This paper discusses the politics of climate policy in the United States and how it is influenced by relationships with the European Union and China. It analyzes these international relationships through specific policies, namely subsidies, and assesses their reduction or removal in some cases and their reallocations in others. It also evaluates the politics and policy implications of carbon border adjustments, including their compliance with existing WTO rules. These trade policies allude to domestic industrial policies and how they can be adjusted to better combat climate change while complying with existing trade rules. In outlining policy options for the United States’ trade agenda, including how the European Union and China factor into these options, the paper assesses the probability that certain climate policies will ultimately materialize. The paper argues that unilateralism is insufficient and counterproductive in both trade and climate and that only through multilateral, legally compliant policy convergence can countries stave off environmental and economic collapse.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Multilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

294. Decarbonizing Aluminum: Rolling Out a More Sustainable Sector

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As the effects of climate change intensify, countries and industries alike are seeking new ways to decarbonize to meet emissions targets, avoid carbon border tariffs, and reduce energy costs. Today, energy use in industry is the number one contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, decarbonization of heavy industry would have a direct and immediate impact on reducing GHG emissions and slowing climate change. Aluminum is the second most used metal in the world. Its applications are numerous and fundamental, from electrical transmission to defense and construction. Aluminum is also a key input in other goods that help reduce emissions, such as electric vehicles and energy-efficient buildings, meaning that decarbonizing aluminum can help industries that are playing a critical role in global climate efforts. This paper evaluates global progress on sectoral emissions reductions and assesses policies governments can pursue to accelerate decarbonization of the aluminum sector. The aluminum industry consists of three component segments: upstream aluminum, downstream aluminum, and recycled aluminum. The upstream aluminum sector is responsible for the sourcing of raw material components from mined bauxite that is then refined into alumina and smelted into aluminum. Aluminum production is usually accomplished in two phases. In the first stage, bauxite ore is refined to obtain aluminum oxide through the Bayer process. The Hall-Heroult process of smelting the aluminum oxide to release pure aluminum comprises the second stage. Upstream production of aluminum involves the mining of bauxite and refining it into alumina. The downstream segment refers to the production of semi-fabricated aluminum products and their use in a wide range of sectors, from manufacturing and automobiles to construction and consumer products. Aluminum not only offers durability, but also is lightweight and infinitely recyclable, meaning it has clear environmental benefits compared to other similar inputs, such as steel or plastic. While aluminum does offer some environmental benefits, producing it is carbon intensive. Aluminum production processes have changed very little since the 1800s, and many countries continue to rely on coal to produce the electricity required for aluminum production. Globally, the aluminum sector contributes roughly 2 percent of GHG emissions—equivalent to about 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet demand for aluminum is expected to increase by 50 to 80 percent by 2050. In 2019, the aluminum industry consumed 6 percent of all global coal-fired electricity, exceeding the total amount of coal-fired electricity generated in Europe. That same year, coal-fired electricity used in aluminum electrolysis produced 636 million tons of C02 emissions, or 58 percent of the sector’s carbon footprint. On average, 72 percent of GHG emissions from primary production of aluminum are from electricity, meaning greater use of renewable energy in aluminum production could significantly decrease the sector’s carbon output. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global CO2 emissions need to decrease by 45 percent by 2030 in order to keep global warming below the 1.5 degree threshold. By accelerating the deployment of renewables and designing policies that encourage and support the decarbonization of heavy industry, the private and public sectors can play key roles in helping to reduce carbon emissions, while also continuing to grow the global economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

295. Creating Accountability for Global Cyber Norms

Author:: James A. Lewis
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The year 2021 saw all UN member states agree in the Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on a framework for responsible state behavior in cyberspace, based on norms developed in the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) in 2015.1 The OEWG formalized global agreement on the 2015 norms. This consensus agreement means that the framework for responsible state behavior is now politically binding for all member states. Global agreement on the obligations for responsible state behavior is a substantial step forward in building international cybersecurity in a rules-based environment. Unfortunately, international experience since 2015 has shown that agreement on norms, even when politically binding, is by itself not enough to ensure their observation or create stability in cyberspace. This has shifted discussion from what norms are needed to how to build accountability and what to do when norms are ignored. While the norms agreed to by all member states will ultimately reinforce international stability, to make progress, it will be necessary to develop a collective diplomatic strategy to improve the observation of norms and increase accountability when they are ignored. A strategy of sustained engagement and the imposition of consequences is necessary for norms to have effect. Our assumption is that accountability for malicious cyber actions can only be strengthened if there are consequences for a state’s decision not to observe norms. If nothing else, a failure to take action in response to transgressions seems to only encourage opponents. An immediate task is to define the conditions for collective action. There has been an initial and informal agreement among like-minded democratic nations that accountability requires the imposition of consequences for a failure to observe norms, but several issues must be addressed. These include agreement on standards for attribution of the source of a malicious action and agreement on a proportional, lawful, and effective response. A collective approach is essential if efforts to create accountability are to succeed, and any response to a cyber incident will require political heft and sustained engagement.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Cybersecurity, Accountability, Transparency, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

296. Design to Live: Everyday Inventions from a Refugee Camp

Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Panel discussion with experts :: Part of the Myron Weiner Seminar Series on International Migration Panelists: Azra Akšamija, an artist and architectural historian, is Director and Founder of the MIT Future Heritage Lab (FHL) and Associate Professor in the MIT Department of Architecture and the Program in Art, Culture, and Technology. Raafat Majzoub, an architect, artist, and writer, is Director of The Khan: The Arab Association for Prototyping Cultural Practices and Editor-in-Chief of the Dongola Architecture Series. Melina Philippou, an architect and urbanist, is Program Director of the MIT Future Heritage Lab, founder of Trapezui: Marble Objecthoods and Associate at the Department of City Planning, Ministry of Interior in Cyprus. Moderator: John Tirman is the executive director and a principal research scientist at MIT's Center for International Studies. Tirman is author, or coauthor and editor, of fourteen books on international affairs, including, Dream Chasers: Immigration and the American Backlash (MIT Press, 2015) and The Deaths of Others: The Fate of Civilians in America’s Wars (Oxford University Press, 2011). About the book, Design to Live: Everyday Inventions from a Refugee Camp: The power of art and design to create a life worth living: designs, inventions, and artworks from the Azraq Refugee Camp in Jordan. This book shows how refugees use art and design to transform their living environments, restoring humanity within circumstances that seem aimed at depriving them of it. Featuring more than twenty projects created by Syrian refugees at the Azraq Refugee Camp in Jordan, Design to Live offers a new way of understanding design as a subversive worldmaking practice and as tool for reclaiming agency in conditions of forced displacement. The projects—including a vertical garden, an arrangement necessitated by regulations that forbid planting on the ground; a front hall, fashioned to protect privacy; a baby swing, made from recycled school desks; and a chess set, carved from broomsticks—showcase the discrepancy between standardized humanitarian design and the real sociocultural needs of refugees.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

297. Starr Forum: Governing the Unpredictable: Disasters, the State, and Futures

Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: The main emphasis is the State's (mostly US, but some international angles) role in disaster management and the discrepancies between perception, legal frameworks, expectations and aspirations, as well as what that means moving into an anthropocenic era of more frequent, perhaps constant, crisis.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Statehood
Political Geography:: Global Focus

298. Fact Sheet: Global Demonstrations Against the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Sam Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Following the Russian invasion, a wave of demonstrations in solidarity with Ukraine spread around the world. Between 24 February and 4 March, ACLED records more than 1,800 demonstrations in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression globally. During this time, demonstrations were reported across at least 93 countries and territories (see map below). Nearly all of these demonstrations — over 99% — were peaceful (i.e. protesters engaged in neither violence nor destructive activity).
Topic:: Solidarity, Conflict, Demonstrations, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus

299. The Military Use of Small Satellites in Orbit

Author:: Mariel Borowitz
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The number of small satellites in orbit has increased rapidly over the last decade, and the growth of this sector is expected to accelerate even more in coming years. Small satellites offer unique economic opportunities, due to their shorter development time, their lower cost as well as their manufacturing in assembly line style processes. Many small satellite applications envision systems comprised of constellations of hundreds or thousands of satellites, which offer a number of advantages, such as the increase in temporal resolution, or revisit rate, as well as formation flying. Military users can take advantage of commercial systems for military purposes - leveraging existing capability without the need to develop new systems internally. Militaries must look for ways to harness these trends to their advantage, both by making use of commercial offerings, and by examining military-specific opportunities. Military leaders envision a time when battlefield imagery could be requested and received by commanders on the ground and used for real-time decision-making. The U.S. Army's Project Convergence experimented with this capability in October 2020.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Satellite, and Military
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

300. Shift to renewable energy could be a mixed blessing for mineral exporters

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The world’s transition to sustainable energy systems has suddenly become a boon to countries rich in critical minerals used in clean energy technologies like rechargeable batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. Among these critical minerals are aluminum, coltan, copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, rare earths, lithium, tantalum, and cobalt. Given that these minerals are key to building sustainable energy systems, vital for ensuring military might, and often extremely valuable, will countries with large, exportable endowments of these minerals fall prey to the resource curse? Hendrix says these countries may find their newfound wealth to be a mixed blessing. The size of the markets for these resources and their marginal production costs suggest that they do not have the potential to generate massive rents the way that oil and gas production have. Given that these rents are the source of many ills—authoritarianism, reduced investment in human capital, poor human rights records—this is good news. But because several of these minerals can be mined artisanally, they may lead to governance challenges related to armed conflict. Their status as strategic resources will invite major power meddling and interventions—but only if mineral-rich economies are forced to align themselves and access to their resources with a major power, like the United States or China. The 20th century’s scramble to secure oil resources led to cursed dynamics in oil-rich societies, but historical precedent is not destiny. Mineral-rich countries may avoid the resource curse, especially if they develop diverse investment and trading relationships to balance major power interests in their mineral wealth and embrace industry- and civil society–led good governance initiatives around mineral resources.
Topic:: Economy, Exports, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS