Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Publication Year within 5 Years Publication Year within 10 Years

401. The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding

Author:
Oli Brown and Nicolucci-Altman-Giuliana
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The term ‘White Paper’ is typically used in government circles to denote a publicly available, balanced document designed to help readers make decisions. This white paper seeks to encourage debate and discussion over the challenges, opportunities, and possibilities for environmental peacebuilding in conflict-affected states and societies. The paper and compendium are the product of a global conversation about the future of environmental peacebuilding and they draw from extensive academic work and practical experience. This white paper is inspired by many voices. Though concise, the white paper hopes to emphasize the growing assortment of approaches, ideas and visions for the future of environmental peacebuilding. The white paper is divided into four parts. The first gathers perspectives on the global context of environmental peacebuilding. The second points to some of the key challenges to environmental peacebuilding practice, while part three highlights important opportunities to harness the environment for peace. The fourth presents an agenda for the future of environmental peacebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Environment, International Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

402. Peace and Security 2025

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The exact nature of the peace and security environment of 2025 is, of course, unknown, but we have information available to us today and yesterday’s experience to guide us in our attempts to imagine what the key features of that environment might be. This teaches us that surprises will continue to happen. Our attempt to identify what 2025 will look like could simply stop here, and we could approach the next few years day by day and month by month, establish our strategic plans, and constantly adjust them in response to new circumstances as they arise. However, we can go a step further and use strategic foresight to help us creatively and systematically explore how that future may unfold and consider collectively the alternatives available to us for dealing with what happens and its implications. This publication takes the latter approach by asking the authors to determine a vision for particular global regions and realistically and concretely assess how we can achieve this vision (Part I), and present suggestions for how we as professionals in the peace and security domain can collaborate to respond as effectively as possible to the challenges of the next few years (Part II). In that sense, the analysis and suggestions presented here balance realism about the challenges ahead with a proactive and constructive perspective on how best to confront them. It is with this in mind that the subheading of this publication is “disrupted visions and resilient approaches”.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

403. Delay, Detect, Defend: Preparing for a Future in which Thousands Can Release New Pandemics

Author:
Kevin M. Esvelt
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The world is demonstrably vulnerable to the introduction of a single pandemic virus with a comparatively low case fatality rate. The deliberate and simultaneous release of many pandemic viruses across travel hubs could threaten the stability of civilisation. Current trends suggest that within a decade, tens of thousands of skilled individuals will be able to access the information required for them to single-handedly cause new pandemics. Safeguarding civilisation from the catastrophic misuse of biotechnology requires delaying the development and misuse of pandemic-class agents while building systems capable of reliably detecting threats and preventing nearly all infections.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

404. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Sanctions Landscape

Author:
Ali Ahmadi
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will accelerate the global trend towards increasing great power competition that pits the existing West-anchored world order against others, especially Russia and China. This new era will have significant implications for the global sanctions landscape as sanctions that have been effective in harming countries with smaller economies are increasingly focused on larger economic powers that are integrated into the global economy. This will carry a far greater risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the sanctions weapon, because larger economies like that of China have a greater capacity to overcome technology export restrictions and the US dollar’s centrality in global finance. While sanctions campaigns often seek to coerce the target state into policy modification, sanctions may be increasingly used for the purpose of economic containment by attempting to retard the long-term economic development of states. This may result in open-ended sanctions campaigns that will generate a new era of geoeconomics where sanctions risk factors become key to the design of business relationships and supply chains. The use of financial sanctions against larger economies will exacerbate already existing trends of de-banking and a decline in corresponding banking relationships. Technology sanctions and export controls will be increasingly central as sanction-imposing countries in the West seek to leverage their superiority in key emerging technologies against those they perceive to be their adversaries.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

405. COP26’s Dilemma: Sustainability vs Food Security?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Ironically, amidst the push to “phase down” coal reliance, the world is seeing a “coal crunch” of rising coal/energy prices, with serious implications on fertilisers and food. Countries pursuing sustainability initiatives ignore these trade-offs at their own peril.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Food, Food Security, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

406. Planetary Health: Managing Competing Tensions

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
After more than two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, wars present a stark reminder of how difficult it is to stay committed to environmental causes when crises arise.
Topic:
Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

407. Food Insecurity Beyond Borders: Untangling the Complex Impacts of Ukraine War on Global Food Security

Author:
Jose Montesclaros and Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Conflict has historically influenced food insecurity within countries. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is of a different nature, as it is worsening food insecurity in other countries too, thereby undermining global food security. This NTS insight untangles the dynamics of conflict-induced food insecurity beyond borders amid the ongoing war. Today’s conflict poses an unprecedented challenge to global food security given its timing, with countries inheriting fiscal challenges from previous bouts with the COVID-19 pandemic; concurrent disruptions to food and energy supply chains; and worsening climate threats to agriculture. Should the war be protracted, the world risks further instability through cost-of-living crises and food price crises. World leaders should therefore carefully weigh these risks, as they deliberate their stances in putting an end to the war.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

408. Urban Resilience: A 21ˢᵗ Century Challenge

Author:
S. Nanthini
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Cities are now home to more than half the global population. As the urban population continues to increase amid the intensification of the effects of climate change, urban disasters are set to affect more people than ever before. As such, strategies to build urban resilience are quickly becoming an urgent matter of global concern.
Topic:
Climate Change, Urban, Population Growth, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

409. Human Development and Mental Health: New Approaches and Metrics Needed

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The latest UN study reiterated the importance of mental wellbeing and psychological resilience in human development and security. A change in approach and metrics is necessary to improve tackling of mental health issues while simultaneously managing contemporary challenges such as climate change, conflict prevention, and protection of the environment.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Health, International Cooperation, United Nations, Mental Health, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

410. International Currency Instability and Food Security: Time to Rebuild “Real Food Economies”?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Debt-distressed countries are handicapped in riding the rising costs of imported food and farming inputs amidst monetary policy shifts internationally. It is timely to rebuild “real food economies” to improve food availability and affordability, hence averting food crises and ensuing political and social instability.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

411. Is Doughnut Economics a Means Towards Achieving Planetary Health?

Author:
Jonathan Ramakrishna
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
With the advent of climate change, the global focus is no longer lingering alone on climate change mitigation and has shifted towards climate adaptation as well. The 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of restricting the average temperature rise in the 21st century to well below two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels is increasing unlikely, given the inaction of states and the global lack of progress in meeting Paris Agreement goals. As nations scramble to meet Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and effectively design climate policies, the global crisis has given rise to a new domain, Planetary Health. Planetary Health, an interdisciplinary field, is described as a solutions-focused discipline which aims to analyse, mitigate, and resolve human disruption to Earth’s natural systems in the new Anthropocene epoch. The Anthropocene epoch, on the other hand, is established as a geological climate where human activity is drastically altering earth’s systems to an extent that will be reflected in fossil records. Planetary Health inextricably links human health to the health of the planet and illustrates the interdependency of the two, and this relationship has been substantiated by findings which concur that countries with higher ecological threats concurrently experience greater social vulnerability. When climate-induced disasters occur due to human action, there are subsequent consequences on food, water, energy, and human security. The consequences are disproportionately felt by vulnerable communities in states that lack resources and capabilities to address the consequent impacts on human security, and climate instability is a driving force behind political instability. Thus, there is cause for concern not only for the planet’s health but also for human health as the environment’s health continues to dwindle in the Anthropocene Epoch. As such, the concept of Planetary Health is a response to threatened climate security and human security.
Topic:
Economics, Health, International Cooperation, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

412. Cybersecurity in the Humanitarian Sector: New Challenges and Solutions

Author:
Christopher Chen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
On 3 November 2022, the International Committee of the Red Cross released its report, “Digitalising the Red Cross, Red Crescent and Red Crystal Emblems: Benefits, Risks and Possible Solutions.” It was in response to cyber intrusions the movement faces. As the humanitarian sector integrates digital technologies into its operations, it faces significant cyber risks. How should the sector navigate this increasingly complex space?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, NGOs, Humanitarian Crisis, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

413. Countering Disinformation and Misinformation in Humanitarian Relief Work

Author:
S. Nanthini
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Humanitarian organisations are trying to adjust to the rapid transformation of information and communication technology. The rise in disinformation and misinformation poses significant challenges to the sharing of accurate information in times of need. Humanitarian organisations must invest more in efforts to adapt to the realities of the information landscape today.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Crisis, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

414. A Study on the Effects of Multinational Production on Global and Domestic Value Chains Following Trade Restructuring and Corresponding International Economic Policies

Author:
Myoung Shik Choi and Hun Dae Lee
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Emphasizing foreign affiliates amid stagnant global value-chained trade, this study provides important evidence for measurable policies which should be taken dependent on the level of GVCs integration in shaping international trade flows and multinational production activity. The recent decreased share of value-added exports within gross exports represents characteristics of a wider value chained network. It is common not only for firms to increase their economic activities globally but also for oversea affiliates to operate as the linchpin between the international and domestic parts of value chains. Our findings suggest that foreign affiliate activity strengthens domestic value chains, thereby leading to the outcome of further growth in the host country, while domestic affiliate activity abroad strengthens global value chains which spur growth in the broader world economy. Based on empirical discussions centered on participating in GVCs, OECD high-income countries significantly integrated into GVCs will benefit from upgrading their GVCs policies such as capturing value-added in exports and building new technology or innovation. There is also a need to continue enforcing the domestic linkages of MNE affiliates, which contributes to growth and employment as they contract and cooperate with domestic firms. In addition, low-income countries not fully integrated into GVCs in the Asia-Pacific region may need to secure entry into existing GVCs with trade liberalization, while middle-income countries which have secured entry into GVCs may focus on enhancing competitiveness by increasing productivity and developing regional economic integration through forums like APEC.
Topic:
Multinational Corporations, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Industry, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

415. Exchange Rate Predictability Based on Market Sentiments

Author:
Hyo Sang Kim, Eunjung Kang, Yuri Kim, Seongman Moon, and Huisu Jang
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
It is well-known that exchange rates are difficult to forecast using observed macro-fundamental variables. This discrepancy between economic theory and empirical results is called the Meese and Rogoff puzzle. The purpose of this study is to address this puzzle from a new approach. Rather than pursuing a linkage between macro-fundamentals and exchange rates, we focus on the market sentiment index as a factor that could possibly enhance exchange rate predictability. The analysis folds into three phases. First, we conducted an assessment of the traditional exchange rate predictability model, as well as the augmented traditional model incorporating the market sentiment index. Second, we predicted the exchange rate by applying the market sentiment index, based on the contrarian opinion investment strategy commonly used by foreign exchange dealers. Finally, we analyzed if the machine learning model incorporating both economic fundamentals and market sentiment index could enhance the predictability of the exchange rate.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:
Global Focus

416. Embedding Reintegration Assistance for Returning Migrants in the Local Context: The Role of Referrals

Author:
Ravenna Sohst and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The objectives of European reintegration programs for migrants returning to their countries of origin have expanded in recent years. Reintegration assistance, instead of being delivered as standardized support packages, is increasingly being designed to take into account the multiple dimensions of returnees’ reintegration—economic, social, and psychosocial—and the context of the communities in which they settle. As these programs become more complex, it has also become clear that no one service provider can offer all of the various services necessary to meet returnees’ diverse needs and profiles. One way to broaden the range of supports available to returning migrants and embed reintegration assistance into the local context is to refer returnees to local actors, including government agencies and civil-society organizations. Such referrals, particularly when combined with capacity-building assistance for local partners, can help connect returnees with tailored, long-term support. Yet, there is no consensus across reintegration programs as to how referral mechanisms should be organized, what types of services referral partners should deliver, the level of budget support different actors need, and how their work should be monitored. This policy brief explores the role of referrals in reintegration programming, offering a typology of approaches taken across programs to date. It also discusses common challenges, emerging good practices, and promising next steps to improve the local embeddedness of reintegration assistance.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Governance, Integration, Deportation, Reintegration, Immigration Policy, and Illegal Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

417. Reassessing Recruitment Costs in a Changing World of Labor Migration

Author:
Kate Hooper
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Recent years have seen national governments, multilateral organizations, civil society, and private-sector groups take steps to promote the fair and ethical recruitment of migrant workers, including efforts to reduce or eliminate recruitment costs. High recruitment costs can result in workers taking on a financial burden that can only be serviced through high-interest loans or debt bondage, placing them in a more vulnerable position and curtailing the income they can then save or send to loved ones via remittances. Still, progress to address recruitment costs has been uneven to date, and the pandemic has been a major setback. The public-health crisis has seen some existing costs rise or fluctuate wildly and new ones emerge (e.g., fees associated with COVID-19 testing and quarantine), with particularly pronounced effects in low- and middle-skilled sectors and informal employment. This has put working abroad out of reach for some would-be migrants while exposing others who travel abroad for work to new risks. This policy brief explores how the pandemic has affected costs for migrant workers at every stage of their journey, with a focus on new public-health measures and other additional expenses. It also reflects on what these developments mean for future efforts to promote fair and ethical recruitment. The brief is the first publication resulting from a multiyear research partnership between MPI and the SDC’s Thematic Section Migration and Forced Displacement to support the development of global solutions for migration-related challenges.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, Labor Issues, Governance, Employment, Economy, COVID-19, Recruitment, Immigration Policy, and Recession
Political Geography:
Global Focus

418. Digital Health Credentials and COVID-19: Can Vaccine and Testing Requirements Restart Global Mobility?

Author:
Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, rising vaccination levels and widespread testing in many countries are giving governments and the public increasing confidence in international travel. A central part of efforts to restart mobility are digital health credentials, which verify a person’s vaccination, testing, and/or recovery status. These credentials help to minimize the risk of travelers carrying the virus, and unlike paper credentials that must be manually inspected in airports and at borders, digital credentials can be automatically verified. But even as digital health credentials are becoming increasingly common, gaps in international coordination and technical integration issues between different credential systems remain. As a result, migrants and travelers moving between—and at times within—countries must navigate a complex maze of digital systems. This report examines the implications of digital health credentials for international travel and for immigrants’ and travelers’ access to domestic services and venues that also use such credentials. It also explores the implications for specific groups: tourists and business travelers, students, labor migrants, asylum seekers and refugees, and unauthorized migrants. Finally, it offers policy recommendations to facilitate mobility and minimize risks for people on the move.
Topic:
Health, Immigration, Border Control, Employment, Mobility, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

419. The Future of Remote Work: Digital Nomads and the Implications for Immigration Systems

Author:
Kate Hooper and Meghan Benton
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The pandemic spurred a rapid shift in working practices. In the decades leading up to the COVID-19 crisis, technological advances had allowed a growing number of people with jobs not tied to a specific location to work remotely, particularly in high-income countries with robust technological infrastructure. But the social-distancing and lockdown measures implemented in early 2020 accelerated this trend, with many people working remotely for the first time and some “digital nomads” seeking to do so internationally. These changes in the world of work have important ramifications for immigration systems worldwide, most of which are poorly attuned to remote work arrangements. Finding ways to adapt immigration policies to keep pace with remote work trends is likely to remain important even as the public-health threat recedes in many places, as there are signs that many employers will continue to demonstrate far greater flexibility about where their employees work—both as a means to streamline operations and to attract and retain workers who are increasingly demanding the option to work remotely. This report examines the challenges that remote workers and their employers face when navigating immigration systems, and analyzes opportunities to introduce greater flexibility into immigration, employment, and tax policies to accommodate the rapid rise of nontraditional working arrangements. In the immigration sphere, it identifies options for adapting existing immigration pathways to accommodate remote work and discusses the new digital nomad visas that have sprung up in countries around the world.
Topic:
Migration, Employment, Immigration Policy, Remote Work, and Digital Nomads
Political Geography:
Global Focus

420. Rebooting the Asylum System? The Role of Digital Tools in International Protection

Author:
Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the way asylum systems use technology. After the initial pause on asylum processing in many countries, officials have turned to digital tools to revive these systems—and increasingly, to reimagine how they work. From the further digitalization of identification and security-check processes to chatbots that help asylum seekers register their protection claims and interviews conducted remotely via video call, such tools have permeated every corner of migration, asylum, and border management systems. This is particularly the case in Europe, where the 2015–16 migration and refugee crisis kickstarted a first round of growth in this area. With digital tools here to stay, the time is ripe to examine what impact their use has on people and processes, and how digitalization may interact with other developments in the international protection field. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—catalogues the use of digital tools in protection systems in Europe and elsewhere, and reflects on what the ramifications could be for humanitarian protection in the years to come. “Digitalization in and of itself is no universal cure,” the author writes, “and depending on how such efforts are carried out, they could obstruct the asylum process and violate asylum seekers’ rights as easily as they could facilitate or protect them.” This report highlights both the potential benefits of the increasing use of digital technology in different stages of asylum processes as well as key challenges and risks that need to be addressed, including concerns about data privacy, opaque decision-making, and how technology changes the nature of human communication.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Border Control, Refugees, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

421. Financing Responses to Climate Migration: The Unique Role of Multilateral Development Banks

Author:
Lawrence Huang, Ravenna Sohst, and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
As climate change increasingly contributes to migration and displacement in many parts of the world, there is a pressing need for measures that build resilience and prevent displacement as well as those that help climate-affected people move to safety and support receiving communities. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are critical, if sometimes overlooked, players because of their ability to invest in large-scale projects that contribute to sustainable development, primarily in low- and middle-income countries. This report explores the unique role of MDBs in the climate finance landscape and highlights opportunities for migration, humanitarian, and other key actors to partner with them on projects that effectively target climate-related migration and displacement. After reviewing the evidence on the complex linkages between climate and mobility, the report examines MDBs’ climate-related work to date, challenges they face to scaling up these efforts, and strategies to begin to address hurdles. These recommendations include learning from past MDB investments that have touched on climate migration, funding data collection or sharing to strengthen understanding of climate migration trends, and developing partnerships to support policy and project development, financing, and implementation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Migration, Finance, and Banks
Political Geography:
Global Focus

422. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Author:
Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
Topic:
NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

423. Proposing a Relative Enforcement Mechanism for the Treaty on Business and Human Rights

Author:
Muhammad Asif Khan
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Review of Human Rights
Institution:
Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:
An Intergovernmental Working Group is established by the Human Rights Council to adopt a treaty on Business and Human Rights. According to the draft treaty the enforcement mechanism relies on a treaty body working through a reporting-based mechanism. In this article the enforcement mechanism of the treaty is analysed through the progressive model of accountability presented by Gupta and Van Asselt. It also takes further the analysis based on the progressive model by Nadia Bernaz of the enforceability measures adopted within the treaty. The enforceability of the treaty is further discussed in this article and a relative enforcement mechanism is proposed. The proposal includes structural changes within the treaty body and inclusion of the role of non-state entities for more efficient enforcement.
Topic:
Human Rights, Treaties and Agreements, Business, and Enforcement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

424. Strengthening a Transnational Semiconductor Industry

Author:
James Lewis
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
If data is the new oil, it could be said that chips are the new steel—a fundamental component of national power similar to the foundational role steel production played in the industrial age. As such, semiconductor chips are a natural focus for government intervention and support to accelerate growth and build secure supply chains. The specific goals for U.S. semiconductor policy are to increase reliability and trust in supply, reinforce all elements of chip-making capacity, and reduce China’s role in the supply chain. Chip production is based on complex, globally distributed, specialized supply chains involving many stages in production, including specialized materials, production equipment, design and related software, fabrication, testing, and packaging. In some stages of production, labor costs are important; in others, it is capital costs because a cutting-edge fabrication plant, or fab, can cost more than $12 billion. Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Japan, Singapore, and China are the leading chip-producing nations. There are also important facilities (often subsidiaries of a leading producer) in Europe, Southeast Asia, South America, and Israel. This global distribution has led some to push for greater production in the United States, but trying to “reshore” a global supply chain spread across many countries would be counterproductive if the goal is a reliable and more productive supply chain. The problem is China, not global production. The politics of the chip industry are generally favorable to the United States. One leading producer, South Korea, is a treaty ally and faces less risk of disruption from China than does Taiwan. Another leading producer, Japan, is one of the most important U.S. security partners and, with the United States, dominates the production of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). ASML, another leading producer of SME, based in the Netherlands, is also an important ally. Singapore, while it would prefer not to be caught in a battle between giants, is also a dependable partner. These countries share democratic values and in many instances are treaty allies. The global distribution of chip-making in countries friendly to the United States is an advantage.
Topic:
Science and Technology, transnationalism, Emerging Technology, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

425. Donor Funding Models for Innovation: A Review

Author:
Conor M. Savoy
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Donors have rhetorically supported the importance of innovation in global development, but the level of resources committed has seldom matched the level of this rhetoric. There are clear barriers to expanding funding for the innovation ecosystem: (1) innovation remains under-resourced, and models that are providing clear results are not properly supported; (2) pathways to scale remain limited because of the total funding available; and (3) the risk appetite of donors remains too conservative to properly support and scale innovation. Recent impact evaluations suggest that innovations supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Development Innovation Ventures (DIV) and the Global Innovation Fund (GIF) have yielded impressive returns. But more importantly, innovation also leverages scarce funding resources and engages with locally based partners.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Innovation, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

426. Diversifying Supply Chains: The Role of Development Assistance and Other Official Finance

Author:
Conor M. Savoy and Sundar R. Ramanujam
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The Issue: The international political economy has undergone significant transformation since March 2020, profoundly impacting global supply chains and bringing to light the risks supply chains pose to economic development around the world. This brief explores some of these risks in detail and lays out the role foreign assistance can play in de-risking and diversifying supply chains by building capacity in new partner countries.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

427. Allied Smart Cities

Author:
Matthew Goodman, Akhil Thadani, and Matthew Wayland
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Population growth and rapid urbanization are reshaping global networks and driving demand for digital infrastructure beyond advanced economies. These trends are accelerating U.S.-China commercial competition in third markets, where governments must decide which communication and technology governance systems to adopt. Developing a high-standard smart city model can help to successfully rejuvenate domestic infrastructure, close the global digital divide, and promote democratic values in digital infrastructure.
Topic:
Urban, Cities, Sustainability, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

428. Indispensable: NATO’s Framework Nations Concept beyond Madrid

Author:
Sean Monaghan and Ed Arnold
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
s NATO’s leaders gather in Madrid this month to unveil the alliance’s eighth strategic concept at a crucial time for European security, they should take inspiration from earlier concepts. In 2014, NATO launched its Framework Nations Concept at the Wales summit to enhance collective defense through multinational cooperation. The idea is built on the basic principles established in NATO’s first strategic concept in 1949. Beyond Madrid, allied leaders should agree to develop the Framework Nations Concept in three ways
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

429. The Digital Literacy Imperative

Author:
Romina Bandura and Elena I. Mendez Leal
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Reading, writing, and numeracy: these are foundational skills people learn at school and continue using throughout their lifetimes. But as societies evolve and technology progresses, the learning needs and demands of one generation change for the next. Curriculums in educational institutions must keep up with these changes to reflect the new realities. They do so by removing outdated content, incorporating new disciplines, and innovating with new educational tools and techniques. While previous American generations learned Latin and shorthand, current generations learn Spanish or French and practice typing. In many public schools across the United States, cursive handwriting is no longer taught. Children now practice writing and typing using new technology such as tablets and computers, not typewriters. In advanced countries, educational equipment such as blackboards, chalkboards, and even whiteboards have been replaced with high-tech tools such as Promethean boards. While numeracy and basic literacy are still fundamental to learning, digital literacy has emerged as another critical life skill and is now, per the World Economic Forum, part of the twenty-first-century toolkit (see Figure 1). Beyond basic literacy, digital skills have become indispensable for every global citizen, whether to communicate, find employment, receive comprehensive education, or socialize. More than 90 percent of professional roles in across sectors in Europe require a basic level of digital knowledge and understanding. This need has become even more evident during the Covid-19 pandemic, making it more urgent for countries to embrace digital technologies and their associated skills.
Topic:
Education, Science and Technology, Digitalization, and Digital Literacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

430. Making Hydrogen Hubs a Success

Author:
Joseph Majkut, Jane Nakano, and Mathias Zacarias
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In a low-carbon world, low-emissions hydrogen will be useful as an energy carrier and when end uses are too hard or expensive to electrify. Thus, hydrogen plays a key role in modeled scenarios of a decarbonized future. Notably, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net-zero Scenario has called for hydrogen from low-carbon sources to make up 10 percent of final energy consumption worldwide by 2050. This large scale of projected consumption means that standing up an industry to make, process, and use low-carbon hydrogen is one part of a needed response for many countries, including the United States. In the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the U.S. Congress authorized the creation of Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs (H2Hubs) to address the multiple challenges facing this nascent industry. In the United States, there is presently little production of low-emissions hydrogen, few users, and almost no linkages between them. To solve these challenges, the legislation calls for each H2Hub to establish “a network of clean hydrogen producers, potential clean hydrogen consumers, and connective infrastructure located in close proximity” to demonstrate the production, processing, storage, transportation, and use of clean hydrogen. Under the legislation, hydrogen is considered clean if less than two kilograms of carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted for every kilogram of hydrogen produced. The production of such low-emissions hydrogen is the key requirement of the H2Hubs program, which also needs to demonstrate the production of clean hydrogen from different sources, including fossil fuel feedstocks, renewables, and nuclear power. H2Hubs will also need to demonstrate the use of hydrogen in power generation, industry, heating, and transportation. The legislation also calls for H2Hubs to be an engine of economic growth and investment in the regions where the hubs are located. Beyond the formal requirements for technical demonstration, the only other instruction from Congress is that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) “shall give priority to regional clean hydrogen hubs that are likely to create opportunities for skilled training and long-term employment to the greatest number of residents in the region.” In a June 2022 announcement on the program, the DOE highlighted how the economic goals of the program are part of the IIJA and President Biden’s agenda, including by “enhancing U.S. competitiveness in the world, creating good jobs, and ensuring stronger access to these economic benefits for underserved communities.” The H2Hubs program offers $8 billion in investment for a nascent industry that could both help the United States reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lead the way in a growing part of the global energy industry, creating jobs and economic benefits at home. As communities, states, and consortia compete for H2Hubs grants, they can design hubs for technical and economic success. And the DOE can build upon existing experience instituting Energy Innovation Hubs to build ecosystems of innovation at a large scale. In spring 2022, the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program hosted several workshops to explore how best practices in regional economic development and innovation policy could help inform the design and administration of H2Hubs. The program also considered how hub models are being used around the world to foster investment in clean-hydrogen production and create market demand for it. This report is a product of those workshops and research that preceded and followed them.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Electricity, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:
Global Focus

431. Addressing the Continuing Phenomenon of Enforced Disappearances

Author:
Diane Webber and Khaola Sherani
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
An enforced disappearance is the “arrest, detention, abduction or any other form of deprivation of liberty” by state agents or their proxies, followed by a refusal to acknowledge or disclose the fate of a seized individual. Unlike arbitrary detention, which may also involve arrest and inhumane treatment, enforced disappearances frequently leave families with no information as to the victim’s whereabouts or status. In many cases, it is ultimately revealed that the victim was killed rather than detained. Enforced disappearances violate multiple human rights, including the right to security and dignity of person; the right not to be subjected to torture or other cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment; the right to liberty; the right to humane conditions of detention; the right to a legal personality; the right to a fair trial; the right to a family life; and the right to life. The phenomenon of enforced disappearances first emerged as a state practice during the Nazi era but became widespread under the military regimes in Latin America during the 1960s. The Commission for Historical Clarification in Guatemala found that from the mid-1960s until the 1996 peace agreement, security forces and “death squads” carried out approximately 45,000 enforced disappearances against anti-government forces and suspected opponents, including members of Mayan communities. The governments of Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru developed a transnational cooperation mechanism called “Operation Condor” to share intelligence about political dissidents for the purposes of carrying out transnational enforced disappearances. The practice of enforced disappearances was soon taken up by governments in other parts of the world, as well. In Sri Lanka, for example, Amnesty International estimates that there have been “at least 60,000 and as many as 100,000 cases of enforced disappearance” since the 1980s. The problem persists today, occurring at a large scale in many countries in the context of both armed conflicts and repressive, unaccountable regimes. The Syrian Network for Human Rights reported that from 2011 to 2021, the Syrian regime carried out 102,000 disappearances to suppress dissent during the civil war. Meanwhile, China’s Residential Surveillance at a Designated Location (RSDL) decree empowers authorities to detain foreign or Chinese nationals for a period of six months without disclosing their location. A Spain-based rights group, Safeguard Defenders, claims that between 27,000 and 57,000 people have gone through China’s RSDL system since 2013, citing data from the Supreme People’s Court and the testimony of survivors and lawyers. Altogether, the United Nations Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances (UN Working Group) has recorded more than 59,000 cases of enforced disappearances across 110 countries since 1980, including 651 new cases originating in 30 countries in its most recent annual report. More than 46,000 cases remain unresolved. The international community was slow to respond to the growing problem of enforced disappearances, initially addressing the problem only as part of broader “ad hoc working groups” on human rights issues in countries like Chile and Cyprus. It was not until 1992 that the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Declaration on the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance, which condemned acts of enforced disappearance as violations of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and called on states to prevent, eradicate, and punish acts of enforced disappearance under criminal law. The international legal regime has since expanded: in 1996, the Inter-American Convention on Forced Disappearance of Persons (Inter-American Convention) entered into force, and in December 2010, the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance (Enforced Disappearance Convention) came into force. Enforced disappearances can also now be prosecuted as a crime against humanity under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Criminal Court (ICC), Humanitarian Crisis, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Global Focus

432. Creating a New Energy Strategy for a Post Ukraine War World

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Paul Cormarie
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
There is every reason for the U.S. to focus on the dangers of climate change and the need to change the sources of its energy supplies to reduce carbon emissions. The new Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed on August 16, 2022, is an important step toward achieving these goals. At the same time, the U.S. needs to work with its European strategic partners to permanently reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas exports and work with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea to ensure that they will not confront a similar threat in the future from China.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

433. Hard Choices in a Ransomware Attack

Author:
Emily Harding and Harshana Ghoorhoo
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Ransomware attacks started as a novelty but have now become a clear and present danger to entities of every size and function. The number of ransomware attacks and the price of demanded ransoms have escalated steeply since 2018. Legislation and policy have not kept up. Policymakers have sought to shape the incentive structure for victims to incentivize defense and disincentivize ransom payments. While they are sympathetic to businesses who fall victim to these attacks, which can sometimes be existentially threatening, few policymakers (or their staff) have ever experienced the shock of an attack firsthand and, as a result, are searching with incomplete information for the right combination of carrots and sticks that will help victims and hurt attackers. This report aims to put the reader in the shoes of the victim—the shocking, powerless moment of realization of a ransomware attack. It walks through a set of decisions that victim must make on their worst day and in the weeks to follow. How well an entity succeeds in navigating that peril depends on decisions made well before an attack, so the report also makes recommendations for both government and industry on how to encourage preparation and simple defensive steps.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

434. Gender Equity to Improve Immunization Services

Author:
Katherine E. Bliss and Alicia Carbaugh
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of a strong health workforce to outbreak response, as well as of vaccine delivery to prevent further outbreaks. Women and men providing care, transporting supplies, analyzing data, and delivering vaccines to patients and their families have all contributed to pandemic-related activities while maintaining a focus on routine health programs. Women comprise an estimated two-thirds of the formal health workforce worldwide—and a high percentage of the unpaid health workforce as well. Yet gender inequities, including those related to training, compensation, and professional advancement, limit opportunities for female health workers to perform their duties and develop professionally, with implications for quality of care and health outcomes. By prioritizing gender equity within their own health workforces; gathering data on gender dynamics within the immunization programs they support; and supporting initiatives to train, retain, and advance the careers of female immunization workers, donor governments—including the United States, working with bilateral and multilateral partners—can strengthen quality of care, improve global immunization coverage, and reinforce health security in the long run.
Topic:
Governance, Medicine, Equality, Immunization, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

435. Transforming Health Crises with Pandemic Therapies Image

Author:
Katherine E. Bliss and J. Stephen Morrison
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security convened a working group on Covid-19 therapies in the fall of 2021 to develop policy recommendations aimed at strengthening U.S. leadership and global action to ensure development of, access to, and uptake of Covid-19 therapies worldwide. Drawing on insights gleaned through private meetings and roundtable discussions with pharmaceutical manufacturers, government officials, representatives of multilateral organizations, and nongovernmental organizations, and building on points raised in an interim report published in July 2022.
Topic:
Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

436. How Much Have the Oil Supermajors Contributed to Climate Change?

Author:
Jiarui Chen, Perrine Toledano, and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In the 40-year period 1980–2019, annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, including flaring, increased by more than 80%, and total emissions from those sources represented approximately 83% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (also including cement production and land-use change) without accounting for sinks. Understanding the carbon footprint of countries and companies along the oil value chain is fundamental to outlining paths to reduced reliance on fossil fuels. However, academic analyses of carbon footprints are limited by the lack of a reliable dataset and carbon accounting method that would allow comparisons across countries and companies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Footprint
Political Geography:
Global Focus

437. Allocation of Climate-Related Risks in Investor–State Mining Contracts

Author:
Martin Dietrich Brauch, Perrine Toledano, and Cody Aceveda
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
As the effects of climate change continue to worsen, mining projects, the communities surrounding them, and their host states are increasingly at risk of being affected by environmental disasters, with devastating social and economic consequences. Risk allocation provisions included in investor–state mining contracts, often considered boilerplate and replicated in agreements without careful consideration or negotiation, could potentially help the parties assign responsibilities between themselves and limit their losses in those cases. However, traditional risk allocation clauses within existing mining contracts, formulated before the world acknowledged the severity of climate change, do not adequately allocate climate-related risks and impacts between states and companies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

438. Investment Incentives: A Survey of Policies and Approaches for Sustainable Investment

Author:
Lisa Johnson and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In order to effectively harness public funds and leverage them to support sustainable development, governments have to be strategic in their use of capital. This means ensuring that government funds are used to help compensate for market failures that lead to the underproduction of public goods. It also means ensuring that government funds are not used to provide redundant support for private actors and subsidize environmentally or socially harmful activities. To achieve these policy objectives, governments need to be careful and deliberate in their use of investment incentives. Investment incentives, which may be defined (broadly) as nonmarket advantages used to influence the behavior of an economic actor, can represent significant costs to governments. These costs have the potential to generate various public benefits such as increased employment, development and dissemination of environmentally and socially sound technology, and other positive externalities. However, investment incentives are not often tailored or implemented in ways that ensure they produce the desired outcomes, or they do so at public costs that are less than their public benefits. Investment incentives have the potential to advance sustainable development but can also be misused, undermining their goals, and wasting public funds. This report provides an overview of investment incentives, their policy implications, and strategies for understanding and managing their costs and benefits.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Investment, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

439. Regulating the International Digital Economy, with Trade and Innovation in Mind

Author:
Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The international digital economy is growing rapidly, and the fragmented governance framework is struggling to keep pace. Global entities such as the World Trade Organization and regional trade agreements offer a patchwork approach to governance. This paper illustrates the importance of governance in relation to private-sector innovation and recommends next steps to enhance governance, close gaps and promote further innovation. Better definition and international alignment of the framework for governance of digital trade and data could lead to greater privacy, trust and security.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

440. A Future Built on Data: Data Strategies, Competitive Advantage and Trust

Author:
Susal Ariel Aarsonson
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In the twenty-first century, data became the subject of national strategy. This paper examines these visions and strategies to better understand what policy makers hope to achieve. Data is different from other inputs: it is plentiful, easy to use and can be utilized and shared by many different people without being used up. Moreover, data can be simultaneously a commercial asset and a public good. Various types of data can be analyzed to create new products and services or to mitigate complex “wicked” problems that transcend generations and nations (a public good function). However, an economy built on data analysis also brings problems — firms and governments can manipulate or misuse personal data, and in so doing undermine human autonomy and human rights. Given the complicated nature of data and its various types (for example, personal, proprietary, public, and so on), a growing number of governments have decided to outline how they see data’s role in the economy and polity. While it is too early to evaluate the effectiveness of these strategies, policy makers increasingly recognize that if they want to build their country’s future on data, they must also focus on trust.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Data, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

441. Rudiments of a Space Security Policy Framework

Author:
Richard J. Chasdi
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The commercial space industry is taking off, with a growing number of private companies sending people into orbit. Along with this growth in demand from businesses and consumers is the need for more space security and policy approaches to address the potential risks of space exploration. The Moon is currently the main target of future space missions because of its resources and its strategic location to support missions to Mars. International law can help mitigate threats, such as resource depletion on the Moon, which could lead to conflicts among stakeholders on Earth.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Space, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

442. A Digital Loonie among Many Digital Currencies: Prospects and Outlook

Author:
Pierre L. Siklos
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Global interest in digitalization is growing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and driving central banks to introduce retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The successful rollout of retail CBDCs will depend on each country’s institutional capacity and the scope of international cooperation and regulation. Retail CBDCs are unlikely to replace domestic currencies but instead complement notes and coins in circulation, offering greater convenience and lower transactions costs.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Currency, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

443. The First Space-Cyber War and the Need for New Regimes and Policies

Author:
Eytan Tepper
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Many dubbed the Gulf War of 1991 the “first space war” due to the US Armed Forces’ extensive use of satellites. The cyberwar in Ukraine, although it is mostly playing out in the shadows, may be remembered as the first space-cyber war. This policy brief makes the case that states should adopt national policies to defend against threats to space-based assets and applications, such as communications satellites, that are both vital to national security and economic security and increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. It is time to explore and identify principles for responsible space-cyber behaviour that would represent a broad multilateral consensus. Identifying these principles may not prevent space-cyber hostilities but could provide “rules of the game.” States would also benefit from encouraging a space-cyber security industry that, beyond protecting against space-cyber threats, has the potential to be a significant growth engine.
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Space, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

444. A Two-Track Approach for Trustworthy AI

Author:
Michel Girard
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Standards and certification programs are developed to support new trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI) legislation. Recent developments point to the emergence of a two-track approach. One track would focus on the certification of AI applications embedded in tangible products using objective criteria through established conformity assessment bodies. Regarding AI interacting with humans and used in delivering services, there is a need to create a new track. This track is needed to verify and validate compliance against subjective criteria, values and ethics, seen by many as an integral part of what constitutes trustworthy AI. The practice of “assurance as a service” can be adapted to verify and validate conformance to upcoming trustworthy AI standards. This policy brief provides an update on key legislative and policy developments framing trustworthy AI. It sketches possible approaches for the certification, verification and validation of AI embedded in products and in services and looks at recent proposals regarding the creation of a new chartered profession to deliver assurance services to achieve trustworthy AI.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, Emerging Technology, and Trust
Political Geography:
Global Focus

445. Thinking through the Event: Alain Badiou versus Michael Hardt & Antonio Negr

Author:
Semra Akay
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article offers how the concept of the event is approached by two opposing post-Marxist thinkers - Alain Badiou, Michael Hardt & Antonio Negri. Since the beginning of the modern era, many events, which could be significant or not, have occurred, such as the French Revolution, the Paris Commune, the Chinese Cultural Revolution, the Zapatista movements, the Arab Spring, anti-globalisation movements, indigenous movements, agricultural movements and the contemporary global protests that have emerged in many parts of the world over the past few decades. They all have affected world politics in some ways. Hence, there are many ways to think about these events or conceptualise these events in distinctive ways. This article compares the approaches of Badiou, who has still been known for his commitment to Maoism, and Hardt & Negri, who established a postmodern relationship between biopolitics, capitalism and empire. The paper emphasises that although both Badiou and Hard & Negri believe that events bring up new possibilities, the event rarely occurs throughout history for the former. For the latter, global capitalism gives rise to the events. The paper stands with Hardt and Negri’s formulation as their perceptions enable us to perceive the novelties, potentialities, and creativeness of social uprisings that have become prevalent in the contemporary world.
Topic:
Political Theory, Social Movement, Intellectual History, and Philosophy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

446. Advancing SVRI’s Work on VAC and CSA to Strategically Contribute to the Field

Author:
Ayesha Mago, Anik Gevers, and Elizabeth Dartnall
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:
The SVRI is a global south based, women-run organisation, focusing on supporting practitioner research partnerships for evidence-building around the issue of violence against women (VAW) and violence against children (VAC), committed to building a gender equitable world, where we can all live free from violence driven by gender inequality. Through our strategic plan we contribute to regional and global evidence building on what works to end violence against women and violence against children, with a focus on low and middle income countries (LMICs) where the burden of gendered violence is greatest, yet where the least resources are available for research and evidence based response and prevention efforts.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, Violence, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

447. To Prevent the Collapse of Biodiversity, the World Needs a New Planetary Politics

Author:
Stewart Patrick
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The planet is in the midst of an environmental emergency, and the world is only tinkering at the margins. Humanity’s addiction to fossil fuels and voracious appetite for natural resources are accelerating climate change and degrading ecosystems on land and sea, threatening the integrity of the biosphere and thus the survival of our own species. Given these risks, it is shocking that the multilateral system has failed to respond more forcefully. Belatedly, the United States, the EU, the UK, and some other advanced market democracies have adopted more aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets, but their ability to deliver is suspect, while critical emerging economies like China and India have resisted accelerating their own decarbonization.1 Even more concerning, existing multilateral commitments, including on climate change, fail to address the other half of the planet’s ecological crisis: collapsing biodiversity, which the leaders of the Group of 7 nations rightly call an “equally important existential threat.”
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Multilateralism, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

448. Reducing Pernicious Polarization: A Comparative Historical Analysis of Depolarization

Author:
Jennifer McCoy, Benjamin Press, Murat Somer, and Ozlem Tuncel
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global rise of political polarization has fueled concerns about its detrimental impact on politics and society. From an increase in political violence to a decrease in the quality of democracy and governance, the threats posed by pernicious polarization—the division of society into two mutually antagonistic political camps—are diverse and acute. Determining how to reduce these tensions is therefore an urgent challenge. Using data on political polarization from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set, this working paper assesses various instances of depolarization around the globe since 1900 and analyzes their long-term sustainability. Polarization is increasing worldwide. When broken down by region, V-Dem data suggest that every region except Oceania has seen polarization levels rise since 2005. Africa has had the smallest increase during this period, although it has long had high levels of polarization. Rising polarization in Europe is being driven by deepening political divisions in Eastern and Central Europe, Southern Europe, and the Balkans. In the Western Hemisphere, the largest democracies—Brazil, Mexico, and the United States—are all experiencing extreme levels of polarization. East Asia’s polarization levels have traditionally been low, though increasing political tensions in places like South Korea and Taiwan are driving up the region’s score. And in South Asia, India’s polarization has skyrocketed since 2014. Jennifer McCoy Jennifer McCoy is a nonresident scholar in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, where she focuses on political polarization and democratic resilience in the U.S. and around the world. To better understand the various paths by which polarized societies might overcome or reduce their political divisions, this working paper examines perniciously polarized countries that have successfully depolarized, at least for a time. Through a quantitative analysis of the V-Dem data set, this study identifies 105 episodes from 1900 to 2020 where countries were able to reduce polarization from pernicious levels for at least five years. These 105 episodes represent roughly half of the total episodes of pernicious polarization during the time period, thus indicating a fairly robust capacity of countries to depolarize. If considered in terms of country experiences rather than episodes (because many countries have experienced multiple episodes in a cycle of polarization and depolarization), then the data indicate that two-thirds of the 178 countries for which V-Dem provides polarization data have experienced one or more episodes of pernicious polarization, but only thirty-five countries (20 percent) have failed to experience any depolarization to below-pernicious levels. Given this apparent capacity among the majority of the world’s countries to depolarize from pernicious levels at least some of the time, this analysis seeks to identify the contexts and sustainability of those experiences and to encourage further research into their causal mechanisms and outcomes for democracies. The analysis offers a preliminary discussion of the potential meaning and normative implications of depolarization as a concept and policy goal. It then uses qualitative analysis to identify patterns in the contexts of various depolarization cases and gauge the sustainability of these trends. Most of these depolarization episodes were associated with dramatic changes in a country’s political life. An analysis of contextual factors showed that almost three-quarters of the cases came after major systemic shocks: a foreign intervention, independence struggle, violent conflict, or regime change (primarily in a democratizing direction). In the remainder of cases, countries depolarized within a given regime structure, whether democratic or autocratic. Tellingly, the authors identified no cases of depolarization from pernicious levels among liberal democracies. This is because very few countries classified as full liberal democracies have ever reached pernicious levels; the United States stands out today as the only wealthy Western democracy with persistent levels of pernicious polarization. Just under half of all depolarizing cases were able to sustain depolarization for a decade or longer. In a second sizeable group of cases, countries managed polarization to some degree, either living with chronic near-pernicious levels after depolarizing, or else repolarizing to near-pernicious levels within ten years. Finally, 15 percent of the cases returned to pernicious levels within the first decade. Troublingly, when the authors analyzed the entire time period from 1900 to 2020, nearly half of the countries that had sustained depolarization or managed polarization for at least a decade later returned to pernicious levels of polarization. These outcomes illustrate the difficulty of sustaining low levels of polarization, and they indicate that a cyclical pattern of polarization, depolarization, and repolarization may be a characteristic feature of political life in many places. Only a fraction (14 percent) of cases resulted in sustained depolarization over the long term.The mechanisms and strategies that enable such sustained depolarization in democracies will be the subject of future research. But given the small number of democracies (eleven) able to accomplish this feat amid the larger pattern of cyclical polarization and depolarization, it will be crucial to also understand strategies of managing polarization at moderately high levels while avoiding democratic erosion, government dysfunction, or returns to pernicious polarization and potential violence.
Topic:
Politics, History, Polarization, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

449. Governance for Resilience: How Can States Prepare for the Next Crisis?

Author:
Frances Brown
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The pandemic has presented policymakers with daunting, interlinked, and often unprecedented challenges. From health emergencies that also upend economies to trade disruptions that also pose new multilateral diplomatic dilemmas, the pandemic has generated challenges that seem exceptional in both scale and degree of interconnection. Although the coronavirus pandemic has generated a dizzying series of harsh social, political, and economic firsts, such dilemmas will not be the last. Trend lines around a series of domestic and multinational governance issues, including climate change, migration, rising geopolitical tensions, and citizen alienation from governing institutions, suggest that complex, interlinked crises will be features of the future. While national and multilateral policymakers should work to alleviate the drivers of such crises, they must also strive to prepare their countries to adapt and recover from complex shocks. In short, they must try to build resilience. The need for resilience will be especially acute in developing and fragile states. These countries will need to respond to compounding shocks across multiple domains, without the head start that their developed-world counterparts enjoy. Equally, donors and policymakers from the Global North must also elevate resilience and adaptation as key components of their approaches to supporting fragile states. This call to bolster countries’ resilience is hardly new. Even before the pandemic, the policy arena featured increasing calls for resilience; now, the chorus has become almost deafening. Recent seminal policy and analytic documents—including the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s flagship report,1 the UK’s Integrated Review,2 and the U.S. Interim National Security Strategy3—have underscored that states’ resilience and capacity for adaptation will be key to their future success in the geopolitical arena. In donors’ peacebuilding and development policies, high-level emphasis on resilience has also swelled over the past few years, including in official communications from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,4 the United States government,5 and the European Union.6 In some development practitioner and civil society circles, the need for resilience is so frequently invoked that it sometimes borders on cliché.7 The increasingly ubiquitous recommendation to “bolster resilience” is valuable for at least two related reasons. First, it offers a more specific strategic objective than conversations around “state fragility” writ large, which have often been too broad to generate concrete policy responses. Second, recent, failed international statebuilding projects have underscored that state fragility is not to be “fixed”—instead, it is to be managed and mitigated.8 The emphasis on resilience thus marks a helpful shift away from maximalist policy framing and toward a more attainable one. But concrete insights on how developing or fragile countries actually achieve resilience are less clear and less common. Given the broad consensus that state fragility is deeply linked to governance, for many policymakers, good governance is central. To be sure, many other factors beyond governance—including demographic, geographic, military, and economic ones—affect a state’s resilience. But a country’s governance and political institutions generally undergird all other dynamics in determining how effectively that state can bounce back from setbacks. What exactly does the concept of “good governance for resilience” entail in practice? This paper surveys the evidence. Below, it reviews the governance-related characteristics and capabilities that affect a country’s resilience. For the purposes of this paper, resilience at the national level can be understood as a country’s capacity to respond to, adapt to, and grow from stresses and shocks.9 Resilience focuses on bolstering the overall performance of a system in the face of unpredictable and often interconnected hazards, making it different from risk management, which relates to specific hazards.10 A country’s resilience depends on the internal characteristics that allow for states and their institutions to navigate a variety of disruptions.11 An overarching insight from the evidence is that governance for resilience is complex and often multidirectional. Several characteristics, such as decentralization, have an ambiguous effect on resilience: they enable a country to withstand some setbacks but leave it more vulnerable in other ways. Still other characteristics—including whether a country is a democracy or an authoritarian political system—do not appear have a clear-cut effect on resilience. In contrast, a few governance “super-factors”—such as control of corruption, societal trust, and high quality political leadership—are exceptionally powerful in enabling a country to augment its resilience through multiple pathways. Finally, this paper considers the broader implications of governance for resilience as a policy agenda. The framing of bolstering countries’ resilience is a valuable one, but it also raises several vexing trade-offs and dilemmas. In particular, it prompts the question of whose resilience, in specific, it refers to, since resilience of state institutions does not always mean resilience of all parts of the population. Looking ahead, the policy refrain of “building resilience” in fragile and developing states, appealing though it is, should be refined to encompass these thorny realities.
Topic:
Governance, Crisis Management, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

450. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. This paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Populism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

451. A CERN Model for Studying the Information Environment

Author:
Alicia Wanless and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the Second World War, European science was suffering. Scientists were leaving Europe in pursuit of safety and work opportunities, among other reasons. To stem the exodus and unite the community around a vision of science for peace, in 1949, a transatlantic group of scholars proposed the creation of a world-class physics research facility in Europe.1 The grand vision was for this center to unlock the mysteries of the universe. Their white paper laid the foundation for the European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN), which today supports fundamental research in physics across an international community of more than 10,000 scientists from twenty-three member states and more than seventy other nations.2 Together, researchers at CERN built cutting-edge instruments to observe dozens of subatomic particles for the first time. And along the way they invented the World Wide Web, which was originally conceived as a tool to empower CERN’s distributed teams. Such large-scale collaboration is once again needed to connect scholars, policymakers, and practitioners internationally and to accelerate research, this time to unlock the mysteries of the information environment. Democracies around the world are grappling with how to safeguard democratic values against online abuse, the proliferation of illiberal and xenophobic narratives, malign interference, and a host of other challenges related to a rapidly evolving information environment. What are the conditions within the information environment that can foster democratic societies and encourage active citizen participation? Sadly, the evidence needed to guide policymaking and social action in this domain is sorely lacking. Researchers, governments, and civil society must come together to help. This paper explores how CERN can serve as a model for developing the Institute for Research on the Information Environment (IRIE).3 By connecting disciplines and providing shared engineering resources and capacity-building across the world’s democracies, IRIE will scale up applied research to enable evidence-based policymaking and implementation. Where CERN “exists to understand the mystery of nature for the benefit of humankind,” IRIE will exist to understand the mystery of the information environment for the benefit of democracies and their citizens.4 While the laws of physics change slowly, the conditions within the information environment are little understood and changing rapidly through the addition of new technology. Additionally, studying the information environment will require analysis of personal and at times sensitive data of internet users, increasing the need for international collaboration. As CERN did by inventing new collaboration tools, IRIE will leverage those same technologies to unlock the collective genius of researchers and practitioners from a variety of fields to strengthen democracy, alongside interested citizens who contribute their own data and expertise. While there are obvious differences between the field of physics and those emerging to study the information environment, aspects of CERN’s development can guide the creation of IRIE, an institution that can uniquely address the growing needs of researchers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Research, Collaboration, Information, and CERN
Political Geography:
Global Focus

452. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle - a Lethal Weapon of Tomorrow for Terrorists

Author:
Aleksander Olech
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Terrorism has been used as a form of combat for centuries. Over the years, the tools used by terrorists have evolved. While attacks with cold weapons still take place, nowadays terrorists also use explosives, machine guns, guided missiles and increasingly often drones. The present growth of the arms market has led to terrorist groups being heavily militarized, as they can successfully acquire modern weapons and subsequently use them in their attacks. This state of affairs has directly affected the security of states and societies, and subsequently became a principal subject of discussion on international security forums. Contemporary global terrorist threats also harness artificial intelligence that supports weaponized robots, missiles, as well as clusters of killer drones. This narrative arose a few years ago, indicating that terrorists may have a vastly greater array of options at their disposal because they may cooperate with some states that would back them up. The chance for terrorist organisations to gain access to artificial intelligence technologies only increased due to the global competition surrounding it. Due to this potential spreading, terrorists will have a chance to operate weapons supported by AI. These events then merge into a deeply concerning scenario which conceivably may have to be confronted. The threat of terrorist organisations possessing and using swarms of drones does not seem to be very distant.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons, Drones, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

453. Anticorruption Guidance for Partners of State-Owned Enterprises

Author:
Alexandra Gillies and Tom Shipley
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Drawing on broad stakeholder consultations, corruption case analysis and reviews of existing best practices, this guidance proposes concrete measures that international oil, gas a mining companies should adopt to reduce corruption risks in their work with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the oil, gas and mining industries. It also recommends measures SOEs can take to strengthen their anticorruption safeguards. The guidance for private-sector companies has five parts: Conducting due diligence on SOEs; Avoiding high-risk agents; Responding to political exposure; Safeguarding payments; Protecting joint ventures from corruption. The final section identifies corresponding recommendations for SOEs in each of these five areas.
Topic:
Corruption, Natural Resources, Business, Risk, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Global Focus

454. New Producer Contract Terms and Uncertainty: Lessons From the Recent Past

Author:
Patrick Heller, Perrine Toledano, David Mihalyi, and Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The petroleum industry is volatile, and governments in “new producer” countries have operated at a significant information disadvantage when negotiating with international oil companies. This challenge is growing today; new producer countries face intensifying questions around whether to offer fiscal incentives to maintain investment in the face of 1) the pandemic-induced volatility in oil prices and 2) long-term questions about the future of the industry in the face of the climate crisis and the global energy transition. This confluence of short-term and long-term uncertainty is prompting a reexamination of the narrative that once took hold in many new producer countries. The traditional story was one of linear progression from being non-producers to small levels of production to ultimately having oil and gas become a major economic contributor over the long term. This notion of progression was associated with a commonly held theory: After a country’s first major discovery, the geological risk that wells will be dry was expected to decrease. Countries could therefore shift from a position of having to grant tax breaks (and other concessions) to international investors, to taking a tougher stance in laws and negotiations for new projects going forward. In this paper we examine whether this theory has been borne out in practice and make recommendations to support new producers in their navigation of the uncertainty associated with the energy transition. Among the eight “new producer” countries, for which we analyzed a total of 26 contracts signed before and 25 contracts signed after discovery events (all occurring between 2001 and 2014), the evidence is mixed.
Topic:
Gas, Transparency, Contracts, Monitoring, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

455. The Social Side of Climate Change Adaptation: Reducing Conflict Risk

Author:
Farah Hegazi and Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
In developing countries, the effects of climate change interact with factors such as underdevelopment, high dependence on natural resource-based livelihoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginalization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent conflict. Along with sustainable development and climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation is another key entry point for addressing climate-related security risks. However, key social factors that could positively influence adaptation outcomes and ultimately mitigate climate-related security risks are often overlooked. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into the importance of social capital for facilitating climate change adaptation and preventing and resolving natural resource-related communal conflict in developing countries. The policy brief recommends: (a) improving trust between communities and governments through collaborative processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices; and (b) increasing knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms.
Topic:
Climate Change, Conflict, Risk, Social Capital, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

456. Post-shipment On-site Inspections and Stockpile Management Assistance: Bridging Gaps

Author:
Giovanna Maletta and Mike Lewis
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Post-shipment on-site inspections and international assistance in physical security and stockpile management (PSSM) have different scopes and objectives. On-site inspections allow exporting states to check exported military materiel to ensure that the importer is complying with its commitments, while PSSM assistance aims to improve states’ weapons and ammunition management systems. However, both instruments allow foreign specialists to visit a state’s weapons and ammunition storage facilities and enable information gathering to assess their integrity and identify possible diversion risks. This SIPRI Policy Brief highlights how building informal linkages between these instruments, especially with regard to states and actors that conduct inspections and are involved in funding or implementing PSSM assistance, could contribute towards establishing more comprehensive forms of post-shipment cooperation. In addition, applying lessons learned from PSSM assistance in terms of gaining access to states’ facilities, cooperating with the beneficiary importing states, and identifying limitations and opportunities associated with the use of tracking technologies could help to address some of the challenges encountered when conducting on-site inspections. PSSM assistance programmes could also include modules to raise awareness about on-site inspections and be a source of expertise that could assist states when implementing these controls.
Topic:
Security, Weapons, Peace, and Ammunition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

457. Post-shipment On-site Inspections: Multilateral Steps for Debating and Enabling Their Adoption and Use

Author:
Giovanna Maletta, Mark Bromley, and Lauriane Héau
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Among the key tools that states that export arms and military equipment can adopt to help to prevent and mitigate the diversion of military materiel are post-shipment on-site inspections. These inspections involve the exporting state requiring and conducting physical checks on previously authorized and transferred military materiel on the territory of the importing state. In the past decade a growing number of states have adopted and implemented this policy tool. In addition, some multilateral bodies and instruments—including forums connected to the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty, the European Union and the United Nations—have been used to exchange views on the use of post-shipment on-site inspections and to develop related good practice guidelines. The wider use of post-shipment on-site inspections could help to prevent diversion of military materiel and reduce the human suffering that this generates, but several barriers and challenges appear to be blocking their broader adoption. This SIPRI Policy Paper reviews these barriers and challenges, and summarizes the steps that have been taken at the national level to address them. The paper then examines the steps that have been taken and that could be taken at the multilateral level to expand discussion about post-shipment on-site inspections and help to support those states that are considering adopting this policy tool. For each step, the policy paper presents a series of recommendations that could be taken forward by states, research institutes, or the executives or secretariats of relevant multilateral instruments or bodies.
Topic:
Weapons, Multilateralism, Exports, and Inspection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

458. Revisiting ‘Minimal Nuclear Deterrence’: Laying the Ground for Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The prospects for nuclear arms control appear dim following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead of continued reliance on nuclear deterrence, the resulting new awareness of nuclear risks should inform bold nuclear disarmament measures in the long term. Drawing on previous debates on ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, this paper argues that nuclear deterrence is possible at low numbers, and hence reliance on nuclear deterrence is not an obstacle to significant progress in nuclear disarmament. In particular, there is scope for reducing the vast Russian and United States nuclear arsenals, which risk planetary-scale destruction and stand in the way of multilateral nuclear disarmament. At the same time, recent military-technological evolution has raised the bar for minimal nuclear deterrence by questioning the survivability of nuclear forces. In addition to making recommendations on how to address such strategic challenges, the paper addresses some conceptual dilemmas traditionally associated with minimal nuclear deterrence.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Multilateralism, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

459. Chronic Crisis Financing? Fifty Years of Humanitarian Aid and Future Prospects

Author:
Gary Milante and Jannie Lilja
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This study maps trends of humanitarian funding in the context of total aid at the country level between 1969 and 2019 and estimates how these trends will change in the future. Historical trends show that the composition of aid has changed significantly in the last two decades: the humanitarian share of total aid to countries has increased from approximately 5 per cent in the 1990s to 23 per cent in 2019. Humanitarian aid was originally intended to respond to short-term emergencies, however, most of today’s humanitarian financing goes to protracted situations. Today many countries receive high levels of humanitarian assistance for a decade or longer, referred to in this paper as ‘chronic’ crises. More than half of total global humanitarian assistance (59 per cent) in the decade 2010–19 went to chronic crises, typically synonymous with conflict-affected, fragile and refugee-hosting settings. These chronic crises have become more prevalent since 1995. Conservative forecasts suggest that 71 per cent of humanitarian assistance over the next decade will continue to go to countries receiving high levels of assistance today. The study concludes with open questions to policymakers regarding the use of the humanitarian financing instrument. In chronic crisis settings, the strategic balance between humanitarian, development and peacebuilding financing and the interplay between these financing streams deserves attention.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, Resilience, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

460. Gender Dimensions of Climate Insecurity

Author:
Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Gender is a traditionally under researched dimension in scholarship on climate and security. However, as recent research has noted, it is a variable that cannot only shape how different groups of individuals are affected by climate-related security risks. Gendered norms and power structures can also increase or mitigate the likelihood of climate-related security risks. This SIPRI Insights contributes to the growing body of research on gender, climate and security by analysing the gender dimensions of the four pathways of climate insecurity featured in past SIPRI studies: (a) livelihood deterioration, (b) migration and changing mobility, (c) tactical considerations of armed groups and (d) elite exploitation and resource mismanagement. It reviews literature to highlight how gender can influence resilience and risk for different groups of men and women within the pathways. Where relevant, it also discusses how gender may serve as an instigating factor for the respective pathways. The paper stresses the need to critically understand the different and interlinked experiences of diverse groups of men and women in the pathway contexts and to ensure equal leadership and participation of all affected groups in addressing climate-related security risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Risk, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

461. Pathways for Reducing Military Spending in Post-civil Conflict Settings

Author:
Alexandra Marksteiner and Diego Lopes da Silva
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
High military spending is a common and consequential legacy of civil conflict. Reducing military spending can yield valuable economic gains and further contribute to the recovery of post-civil conflict societies. However, little is known about the conditions that enable military spending reductions in a conflict’s aftermath. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security tackles this issue and provides a comparison of post-civil conflict conditions and military burden—military spending as a share of gross domestic product—outcomes. It builds on a comparative analysis of 19 post-civil conflict episodes between 1970 and 2020, as well as three detailed case studies, to identify common pathways to post-civil conflict military burden reductions. This research finds that reductions in military burden usually follow peace agreements that encompass trustworthy and legitimate verification mechanisms, the strengthening of institutional means to resolve grievances, and improvements in relations with neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Finance, Military Spending, Resilience, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

462. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Models, and Predictability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

463. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Academia, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

464. After the Allocation: What Role for the Special Drawing Rights System?

Author:
Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, and Steffen Murau
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In August 2021, the IMF made a new SDR allocation to help ease pandemic-induced financial strains in the Global South. This paper assesses the potential of the SDR system to address debt- related problems in global finance. We analyze the SDR system as a web of interlocking balance sheets whose members can use SDR holdings—the system’s tradable assets—for conversion into usable currency as a perpetual low-interest loan or to make payments to each other. Using original IMF data, we study how the system has been practically used since 1990. Though widely perceived as a solution in search of a problem in the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the SDR system provides three mechanisms through which IMF members borrow and lend usable currency to each other, with different strings attached: first, transactions by agreement; second, the IMF’s core lending facilities for which the SDR system offers additional resources; and third, IMF-sponsored Trusts which seek to harness the SDR system for development purposes and are the basis for the current idea of ‘voluntary channeling’. Overall, given the SDR system’s idiosyncratic accounting rules, the new allocation can improve the liquidity position of a country and offer some limited avenues for sovereign debt restructuring but comes with new interest and exchange rate risks. Voluntary channeling cannot happen without a wealth transfer, neither the SDR allocation nor the use of Trusts can overcome this problem. Still, Trusts can be a useful instrument to help with debt forgiveness and to ensure that borrowed funds are used for their intended purpose.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

465. An Economic Defense of Multiple Antitrust Goals: Reversing Income Inequality and Promoting Political Democracy

Author:
Mark Glick
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Two recent papers by prominent antitrust scholars argue that a revived antitrust movement can help reverse the dramatic rise in economic inequality and the erosion of political democracy in the United States. Both papers rely on the legislative history of the key antitrust statutes to support their case. Not surprisingly, their recommendations have been met with alarm in some quarters and with skepticism in others. Such proposals by antitrust reformers are often contrasted with the Consumer Welfare Standard that pervades antitrust policy today. The Consumer Welfare Standard suffers from several defects: (1) It employs a narrow, unworkable measure of welfare; (2) It excludes important sources of welfare based on the assumption that antitrust seeks only to maximize wealth; (3) It assumes a constant and equal individual marginal utility of money; and (4) It is often combined with extraneous ideological goals. Even with these defects, however, if applied consistent with its theoretical underpinnings, the consideration of the transfer of labor rents resulting from a merger or dominant firm conduct is supported by the Consumer Welfare Standard. Moreover, even when only consumers (and not producers) are deemed relevant, the welfare of labor still should consistently be considered part of consumer welfare. In contrast, fostering political democracy—a prominent traditional antitrust goal that was jettisoned by the Chicago School—falls outside the Consumer Welfare Standard in any of its constructs. To undergird such important broader goals requires that the Consumer Welfare Standard be replaced with the General Welfare Standard. The General Welfare Standard consists of modern welfare economics modified to accommodate objective analyses of human welfare and purged of inconsistencies.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Income Inequality, and Antitrust Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus

466. Government Deficits and Interest Rates: A Keynesian View

Author:
Brett Palatiello and Philip Pilkington
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We test the neoclassical loanable funds model which postulates that, ceteris paribus, government borrowing increases the long-term rate of interest. The empirical literature exploring such a connection remains largely mixed. We clarify the conflicting results by deploying an ARDL model to decompose the relationship in the United States into long and short-run effects across multiple measures of the government deficit and long-term interest rate. We find a tendency for changes in the deficit to increase long-term interest rates in the short run but the effect is reversed in the long run. We argue that these results are consistent with John Maynard Keynes’ view of the long-term rate as being heavily influenced by monetary policy, central bank credibility and market convention.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Economic Theory, Keynes, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

467. Setting the Record Straight on the Libertarian South African Economist W. H. Hutt and James M. Buchanan

Author:
William Darity Jr., M'Balou Camara, and Nancy MacLean
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In their stormy response to Nancy MacLean’s book Democracy in Chains, some academics on the libertarian right have conducted a concerted defense of Nobel Laureate James Buchanan’s credentials as an anti-racist, or at least a non-racist. An odd component of their argument is a claim of innocence by association: the peripatetic South African economist and Mont Pelerin Society founding member William Harold Hutt was against apartheid; Buchanan was a friend and supporter of Hutt; therefore, Buchanan could not have been abetting segregationists with his support for public funding of segregationist private schools. At the core of this chain of argument is the inference that Hutt’s opposition to apartheid proves that Hutt himself was committed to racial equality. However, just as there were white supremacists who opposed slavery in the United States, we demonstrate Hutt was a white supremacist who opposed apartheid in South Africa. We document how Hutt embraced notions of black inferiority, even in The Economics of the Colour Bar, his most ferocious attack on apartheid. Whether or not innocence by association is a sound defense of anyone’s ideology or conduct, Hutt, himself, was not innocent of white supremacy.
Topic:
Economics, Discrimination, Racism, and Libertarianism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

468. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Reliance on established macroeconomic thinking is not of much use in trying to understand what to do in response to the constellation of forces driving up inflation in these times of COVID-19 and war. This paper attempts to reduce the heat and turn up the light in the debate on the return of high inflation and looming stagflation—by providing evidence-based answers to the main (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation: is the increased inflation due to (global) supply and/or demand factors? Is the inflation in the US exceptional or are other OECD and emerging economies experiencing similar inflationary pressures? Is the increase in inflation permanent or transitory? Can the Fed safely bring down inflation? Is fiscal policy the underlying cause of inflation? Are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down? And what will happen to inflation in the longer run, when the US and other economies will face the impacts of global warming?
Topic:
Economics, War, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

469. Working Paper Permanent Scars: The Effects of Wages on Productivity

Author:
Claudia Fontanari and Antonella Palumbo
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper explores how stagnating real wages may have contributed to the slowdown of US productivity. Through shift-share analysis, we find that after a sharp change in distribution against wages, some historically high-productivity sectors (like manufacturing) switched towards slower productivity growth. This supports our hypothesis that the anemic growth of productivity may be partly due to the trend toward massive use of cheap labor. Our estimation of Sylos Labini’s productivity equation confirms the existence of two direct effects of wages, one acting through the incentive to mechanization and the other through the incentive to reorganize labor use. We also show that labor ‘weakness’ may exert a further negative effect on labor productivity. On the whole, we find that a persistent regime of low wages may determine very negative long-term consequences on the economy.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Theory, and Wages
Political Geography:
Global Focus

470. Monetary Policy for the Climate? A Money View Perspective on Green Central Banking

Author:
Jakob Vestergaard
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Central banks can potentially influence the investment decisions of private financial institutions, which in turn will create incentives towards green technology adoption and development of lower emission business models. This paper examines how monetary policies can be deployed to promote a greening of finance. To guide the efforts, the paper mobilizes the Money View literature. This enables a comparative assessment of different monetary policy options. The main finding is that a promising way forward for green monetary policy is to adopt a strategy of expanding collateral eligibility through positive screening and widening haircut spreads to change relative incentives in favor of green over brown assets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

471. The Role of Public REITs in Financialization and Industry Restructuring

Author:
Rosemary Batt, Eileen Appelbaum, and Tamar Katz
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are important but little studied financial actors that control over $3.5 trillion in gross assets and over 500,000 properties in the U.S. Yet they have been largely ignored because tax rules define them as ‘passive investors.’ The evidence in this report shows that they are actually financial actors that aggressively buy up property assets and manage them to extract wealth at taxpayers’ expense. This study identifies the powerful impact that REITs, as owners of the real estate that houses productive enterprises, have had on operating companies and on the US economy more generally. It draws on case study evidence from markets where REITs have a major presence – nursing homes, hospitals, and hotels. The tax treatment of REITs has facilitated a growing and worrying influence on health care markets in particular at taxpayer expense.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Finance, Tax Systems, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

472. Navigating the Crises in European Energy

Author:
Michael Grubb
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The energy crisis engulfing Europe is a crisis of both gas and electricity markets, with huge cost impacts on consumers across all European countries. In Britain, half of typical household energy expenditure arises from electricity. This paper examines how the cost of gas-powered generation feeds through to electricity bills, on the principle of marginal cost pricing, setting the price for most of the time though it accounts for only about 40% of GB generation. Combined with the steep decline in wind and solar costs over the past decade, this has resulted in an unprecedented degree of ‘cost inversion’ in the electricity system. We offer estimates of the increase of revenues across the wholesale market, and outline five principles for reform for addressing the combined challenges of energy costs and accelerating low-carbon transition.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

473. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War: The Plight of the Developing Economies

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Reliance on established macroeconomic thinking is not of much use in trying to understand what to do in response to the constellation of forces driving up inflation and slowing down growth in these times of COVID-19 and war. This paper attempts to reduce the heat and turn up the light in the debate on the return of high inflation and looming stagflation—by providing evidence-based answers to key (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation: How close are the parallels between the current conjuncture and the 1970s? What are the differences? Does what is currently happening already amount to stagflation? Can central bankers engineer a ‘soft landing’ of their economies or are we already poised for a deep (global) recession? What are the likely spill- over effects of monetary tightening in the US on the emerging economies? What, if anything, can we learn from the monetary and fiscal policy experiences and policy mistakes of the 1970s? And, finally, are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down?
Topic:
Economics, War, Conflict, Inflation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

474. Negotiations in international procurement management: the case of Bank BIC internationalization project within the CPSC space

Author:
José Abel Moma
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
This research paper identifies the instrumental role of the integrative perspective in international procurement negotiations and evaluates how, in the specific case of BPN’s purchase by BIC, the long-term relationship approach provided the maximization of opportunities in international relations. The research applied a qualitative method that explored the case of BIC internationalization project within the CPSC (Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries) space and resorted to techniques of documentary observation, collected through interviews, official statements and communications. The study demonstrates that BIC strategy gave rise to subsequent negotiations with the same international partner, under conditions of a more cooperative perspective. Findings validate the relevance of an integrative perspective, but suggest that it is instrumental to competitive purposes and demonstrates that the entry into action of business economic actors is not unrelated to a strong involvement of States, through their governments
Topic:
International Relations, Negotiation, Banks, Management, Procurement, and Internationalization
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

475. Spheres of Influence in a Multipolar World

Author:
Andrew Latham
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
Throughout the modern era, great powers have routinely staked out geographic zones within which they have limited the autonomy of weaker states—often as buffer zones between themselves and potential adversaries or rival empires. Since the nineteenth century, these geopolitical spaces have typically been referred to as spheres of influence. The specific configuration of such spheres depends largely on the distribution of power in the international system. During moments of multi-polarity, multiple great powers will attempt to assert spheres of influence; during the Cold War era of bipolarity, the international order was defined by two superpower-dominated spheres; during the post-Cold War moment of unipolarity, the U.S. alone was able to assert a sphere of influence. Given this, it was inevitable that the return of multipolarity from the 2010s on would result in the crystallization of a new, multipolar, configuration of spheres of influence—one involving multiple great powers each asserting their own sphere. The relevant question now, therefore, is not if the transition to a world of multiple spheres of influence will take place (given the structural changes at the level of international order, it most certainly will), but how Washington should manage this development in ways that are both realistic and conducive to U.S. interests. The most realistic answer to this how question is to adopt a differentiated strategy that recognizes that, while the U.S. will not be able to prevent spheres of influence as a feature of international order tout court, it may be able to thwart specific spheres in certain specific circumstances.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Multipolarity, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

476. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin

477. Decrypting Crypto: Cryptocurrencies and the Quantum Computer Threat

Author:
Arthur Herman and Daley Pagano
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Cryptocurrencies are increasingly embedded in the global financial and economic mainstream. One reason is that its security encryption, distributed ledger technology, or blockchain, is largely impervious to conventional cyber-attack or theft. However, thanks to Shor’s algorithm, cryptocurrencies will be exceptionally vulnerable to a future quantum computing attack. What makes crypto vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm is elliptic-curve cryptography, which applies to all distributed ledger technology. Based on our research, the overall cost of a major hack and devaluation of Bitcoin alone would equal $3 trillion plus. Fortunately, solutions already exist: post-quantum cryptography and quantum computing. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay. However, supporting crypto security with post-quantum cryptography or quantum cryptography will enable cryptocurrencies to remain a mainstay of the global financial system for many decades to come.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, Cryptocurrencies, Information Technology, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

478. Imperial Preference

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
When the economy is globalised but decisions on policy are made in national capitals, states can choose to cooperate and run the global economy in their collective interest, even as they remain economic competitors. Or they can try to fence off their share of the market and force all others out – and economic competition quickly turns into geopolitical rivalry. Is this what will mark the 21st century?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Global Focus

479. Balancing Conventional and Hybrid Threats in (Future) State Competition

Author:
Pieter Balcaen and Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Much attention has been drawn in latest years to the increasing challenges posed by ‘hybrid threats’, and the question how to deter them. The events in Ukraine have prompted NATO allies to accelerate the expansion of their military capabilities to deter further Russian aggression, resulting in an increased political will to reinforce conventional deterrence. While we are certainly in favour of strengthening a long neglected defence, this paper aims to point out some pitfalls in policymaking, associated with the blindly adapting of the (future) force generation process to the events in Ukraine. The course of the conflict, and the consequences that stem from it should prompt us to reflect more thoroughly on the security challenges Western countries are most likely to face.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Hybrid Threats, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

480. Transparency in multilateral climate governance: Ranking countries by the Climate Transparency Adherence Index

Author:
Romain Weikmans and Antto Vihma
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Reporting and review arrangements are often portrayed as vital for keeping countries informed about each other’s climate intentions and actions. They are set in order to enhance accountability and mutual trust, ultimately securing more ambitious climate actions. This Briefing Paper provides an updated analysis of state engagement with the recent reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The analysis shows that the performance of countries continues to vary greatly. The full data of the research is available to be requested from the authors. Understanding current trends of engagement with reporting is crucial for informing the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement. Indeed, the Agreement calls for an “Enhanced Transparency Framework” to be implemented by 2024. This represents a major ramping up of transparency obligations, especially for developing countries. Significant challenges lie ahead in the implementation of ever more stringent transparency requirements. Political reluctance to report on national climate actions (or lack thereof) to multilateral institutions such as the UNFCCC is a likely obstacle to the functioning of the new transparency framework. Technical obstacles may also limit the disclosure of information.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Multilateralism, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

481. Western financial warfare and Russia’s de-dollarization strategy: How sanctions on Russia might reshape the global financial system

Author:
Maria Shagina
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since 2014, Russia’s de-dollarization plan has been guided by security and geopolitical considerations. By dumping the US dollar from its foreign currency reserves, Russia diverted from the traditional approach where liquidity and the credibility of the issuer determine the choice of currency. In 2022, Russia has doubled down on its efforts to de-dollarize the economy. What started as de-dollarization in 2014, transformed into full-blown rouble-ization in 2022. Following the dynamic of an emerging multipolar world order, the global financial system is also gravitating towards fragmentation and currency multipolarity. The overuse of sanctions could strengthen revisionist countries’ desire to increasingly conduct their trade in non-dollar currencies in an attempt to avoid US oversight. If current trends continue, the de-dollarization effort could gain ground and undermine the primacy of the US dollar.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Sanctions, Finance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Global Focus

482. Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction as a Radical Departure: New Paradigm for Analyzing Capitalism

Author:
Leonardo Burlamaqui
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The paper’s core contribution is a reinterpretation of Schumpeter’s development theory, through the "creative destruction paradigm" provided in Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (CSD). By linking the core propositions of the latter with the brilliant, but underdeveloped, innovations from The Theory of Economic Development (TED) and some largely ignored historical and institutional insights provided in Business Cycles (BC), the seeds of a new analytical framework emerge. One which is completely out of balance, centered on finance, entrepreneurial action, uncertainty, institutions, and competition by means of innovation.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Capitalism, Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

483. Polanyi, Market Fundamentalism, and the Institutional Structure of Capitalism

Author:
Leonardo Burlamaqui
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The basic proposition of this paper is that the so-called "new economic sociology", which is rooted in key ideas of Karl Polanyi, is an indispensable "tool" for two tasks: a) it provides us with a powerful critique of market fundamentalism, and b) it allows us to analyze the economic performance of contemporary capitalism by accessing the working of its institutional structure. From an analytical perspective, the paper suggests that Polanyian Economic Sociology is an essential complement to both the Schumpeterian and the Post-Keynesian perspectives in economics. This is especially so when it comes to the discussion of "socioeconomic stability" and, more precisely, as Keynes himself stated in the General Theory: to explain why capitalist economies manifest themselves in different ways and degrees, in spite of encompassing inherent elements of instability and unpredictability.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Sociology, and Capitalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

484. Energy in a World in Transition: Challenges, Opportunities and Perspectives

Author:
Jorge Camargo, Pedro Malan, Winston Fritsch, Clarissa Lins, and Alessandra Amaral
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
The Energy Transition process is complex and multifaceted, with substantial impacts on the energy industries’ business models. In order to contribute with a greater understanding of this trend, CEBRI, in partnership with BMA, organized a collection of articles that analyzes the main implications of this process, which is well positioned to be one of the major drivers of economic transformation in this historic period. Published in English and Portuguese, the collection is structured around the theme “Energy in a World in Transition”, and assesses a global process from a Brazilian perspective. The first edition, published in June, included important reflections on the future of Brazilian energy.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Industry, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

485. The OSCE and a 21st century spirit of Helsinki: Opportunities to shift security back to the people

Author:
Bradley Reynolds and Johanna Ketola
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A common understanding of the OSCE and the security it seeks to promote has been in decline since 2008. The war in Ukraine and renewed Russian invasion in February 2022 have led many to ask how to sustain the OSCE going forward. One consideration is to temporarily remodel the OSCE as a ‘consensus minus one’ organization to exclude Russia from decision-making. This would allow the institutional set-up and characteristics of a liberal world order institution to be maintained. Another perspective is the return to a Cold War conference model, which would facilitate dialogue with Russia and its allies despite Moscow’s active dismantling of the OSCE and its principles. The immediate future for the OSCE looks dim. Ahead of the 50th anniversary of the Helsinki Final Act in 2025 and in preparation for the Finnish OSCE Chairpersonship, this Briefing Paper argues that the perspectives of civil society may help retain a key tenet of the OSCE process and help reimagine a new Helsinki spirit. An expanded, interdimensional Moscow Mechanism may offer a via media between the two perspectives and continue to incorporate civil society perspectives into the operational work of the OSCE.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, International Cooperation, and Liberal Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

486. Re-securitizing climate: From ‘climate security’ to ‘ecology of peace’?

Author:
Emma Hakala and Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
One implication of the war in Ukraine is that collective solutions to climate security will be ever more difficult to forge. Earlier hopes for cooperation were focused on the ‘securitization’ of climate change – that is, presenting it as an issue for security policy. The expectation was that the security implications of climate change would be recognized as a shared threat and dealt with through multilateral cooperation under UN leadership. The securitization of climate change took place at the same time as a decline in liberalism and multilateralism in international politics. The rise of conflictual and disintegrative tendencies in international relations creates a dangerous geopolitical context for climate change. Climate security is part of great-power politics. Recognizing this requires a deep rethinking of how cooperation can be achieved if this issue cannot be decoupled from geopolitical gridlocks. Climate and environment issues should be ‘re-securitized’, for example, by further embedding them into the few existing multilateral regimes, such as the Paris Agreement and the UN Convention on Biodiversity.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

487. Digital resilience beyond data localisation: National approaches to global challenges

Author:
Markus Holmgren
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Data localisation refers to the technologies and policies aimed at ensuring localised data hosting and localised data routing instead of utilising offshore server and processing centres. Data localisation is often suggested as a solution to global challenges stemming from the increasing dependence of societies on data and digital technologies, as well as the fear of an external actor leveraging this dependence for power political purposes. Data localisation does not, however, reduce key technological dependencies. The goal of digital resilience should be to ensure the security and continuity of data and infrastructure software, and to secure access to critical digital services irrespective of their location. Instead of data localisation measures, international cooperation should be deepened and digital traffic should have overseeing systems similar to those that have been in place for land, air, and maritime traffic for decades. EU member states would benefit greatly from the creation of a unified auditing and standardisation process within the European single market. At the same time, tighter ties with US digital service providers would improve digital resilience.
Topic:
Local, Resilience, Data, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

488. Large-Scale Land Deals and Social Conflict: Evidence and Policy Implications

Author:
Alexander De Juan, Daniel Geissel, Jann Lay, and Rebecca Lohmann
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
How do large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) increase the risk of conflict, and what kind of policies can mitigate this effect? We address these questions with a systematic and poli-cy-oriented synthesis of prior research. First, we suggest a simple conceptual framework linking LSLAs to social conflict through relative deprivation. Second, we present empirical evidence on the associations between land investments and social conflict, drawing on pre-existing quantitative and qualitative studies as well as on own descriptive analyses and case studies. Taken together, this evidence suggests that conflicts accompany a sub-stantive share of LSLAs (10 to 20 percent). Specifically, contentious dynamics often start with violations of community interests, which spur largely peaceful community protests that trigger coercion and violence at the hands of armed actors associated with national governments and investors. Third, we develop a set of policy recommendations in high-lighting the need for thorough regulatory frameworks, meaningful consultation, and full transparency.
Topic:
Reform, Regulation, Conflict, Transparency, Land, and Community
Political Geography:
Global Focus

489. Sustaining Civic Space in Times of COVID-19: Global Trends

Author:
Jasmin Lorch, Monika Onken, and Janjira Sombatpoonsiri
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In this paper we challenge the conventional wisdom that COVID-19 and related legal restrictions invariably reinforce a global trend of shrinking civic space. We argue that the legal guarantee of civil liberties is not the sole factor configuring civic space. Instead, civic space is best understood as being configured by three interacting components: 1) the legal guarantee (or restriction) of civil liberties, that is, rights-based space; 2) socio-economic needs that configure needs-induced space; and, 3) civil society activism. During the pandemic needs-induced space for civil society has emerged both from the health crisis and because restrictive government responses have had severe socio-economic side effects on people’s livelihoods. These socio-economic conditions, along with civic discontent over restrictions on civil liberties, have driven civil society engagement in the form of both relief and advocacy/protest activism. Along with the structural condition of needs-induced space, this civil society activism has worked to sustain civic space.
Topic:
Civil Society, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Lockdown Policies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

490. The return of inflation: Can we protect real incomes?

Author:
Manos Matsaganis and Sotiria Theodoropoulou
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
High inflation, virtually unknown in advanced economies since the 1980s, has made a comeback. In this policy paper, we first explain where inflation comes from, and describe how the policy context for dealing with it was shaped after Keynesian demand management proved unable to defeat stagflation. We then critically examine the various policy options. Generally speaking, policy makers may attempt to (i) contain inflation by raising interest rates or, more directly, by controlling prices, (ii) alleviate the impact of inflation on household budgets through price subsidies or income transfers, and (iii) protect workers’ real incomes via wage indexation and social pacts. We conclude by assessing the merits, costs, and distributional implications of each option in turn.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, and Income
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

491. Policy Options for an Equitable Re-globalization

Author:
Constantine Michalopoulos
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Developing countries made impressive gains in reducing poverty and global income inequality in the past half century, many riding the wave of globalization. But the dozen years that followed the 2008 financial crisis witnessed a deterioration of global commitments to a more equitable economic order made in the early years of the 21st century. The pandemic undermined development prospects, intensified pre-existing anti-globalization sentiments, and raised questions about the effectiveness of the international institutions within which developing countries achieved great progress. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created a major geopolitical split and contributed to large increases in energy and food prices with disastrous results for developing countries, many of which were just recovering from the increased poverty created by the pandemic. This paper sets out an agenda for what I call a more equitable re-globalization. This has several parts: addressing climate change, providing economic assistance to help reduce poverty in low income countries, strengthening the social safety net, limiting the power of MNCs, and reestablishing an effective multilateral trading system. The potential calamities of future pandemics and the threats posed by climate change require countries to submerge narrow national political objectives and develop a collaborative global multilateral approach. The last part of the paper discusses the steps the international community must take to revitalize multilateralism to enable it to cope with global challenges effectively and equitably.
Topic:
Globalization, Poverty, Income Inequality, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

492. Artificial Intelligence and Arms Control

Author:
Paul Scharre and Megan Lamberth
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) pose immense opportunity for militaries around the world. With this rising potential for AI-enabled military systems, some activists are sounding the alarm, calling for restrictions or outright bans on some AI-enabled weapon systems.1 Conversely, skeptics of AI arms control argue that as a general-purpose technology developed in the civilian context, AI will be exceptionally hard to control.2 AI is an enabling technology with countless nonmilitary applications; this factor differentiates it from many other military technologies, such as landmines or missiles.3 Because of its widespread availability, an absolute ban on all military applications of AI is likely infeasible. There is, however, a potential for prohibiting or regulating specific use cases. The international community has, at times, banned or regulated weapons with varying degrees of success. In some cases, such as the ban on permanently blinding lasers, arms control has worked remarkably well to date. In other cases, however, such as attempted limits on unrestricted submarine warfare or aerial bombardment of cities, states failed to achieve lasting restraint in war. States’ motivations for controlling or regulating weapons vary. States may seek to limit the diffusion of a weapon that is particularly disruptive to political or social stability, contributes to excessive civilian casualties, or causes inhumane injury to combatants. This paper examines the potential for arms control for military applications of AI by exploring historical cases of attempted arms control, analyzing both successes and failures. The first part of the paper explores existing academic literature related to why some arms control measures succeed while others fail. The paper then proposes several criteria that influence the success of arms control.4 Finally, it analyzes the potential for AI arms control and suggests next steps for policymakers. Detailed historical cases of attempted arms control—from ancient prohibitions to modern agreements—can be found in appendix A in the pdf available for download. For a summary table of historical attempts at arms control, see appendix B. History teaches us that policymakers, scholars, and members of civil society can take concrete steps today to improve the chances of successful AI arms control in the future. These include taking policy actions to shape the way the technology evolves and increasing dialogue at all levels to better understand how AI applications may be used in warfare. Any AI arms control will be challenging. There may be cases, however, where arms control is possible under the right conditions, and small steps today could help lay the groundwork for future successes.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Artificial Intelligence, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

493. Risk-Limiting Audits: A Guide for Election Observation Efforts

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The risk-limiting audit (RLA) is a statistical technique for limiting the risk of certifying an incorrect election outcome — that is, the risk that the apparent winner did not in fact receive the most votes. A random sample of paper ballots is visually checked by auditors, and the results are compared with the outcome reported by the tabulator/scanner equipment. If there is sufficiently strong statistical evidence based on this sample that the reported outcome was correct, the audit stops and the tabulated result is confirmed. If evidence from the sample is inconclusive, another sample is drawn, potentially progressing all the way to a full hand recount. The RLA thus either confirms the reported outcome or corrects it.
Topic:
Elections, Election watch, Election Observation, and Audit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

494. May 2022 Issue

Author:
Gary A. Ackerman, Zachary Kallenborn, Philipp C. Bleek, Paul Cruickshank, Audrey Kurth Cronin, and Jaime Yassif
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With more than a million Americans dead from COVID-19 and the pandemic associated directly or indirectly with around 15 million deaths globally by the end of 2021 according to World Health Organization estimates, it is essential to reassess the global biological threat landscape, including the possibility that bioterrorists or other bad actors might seek to exploit advances in biotechnology to engineer a future pandemic. In a joint effort, the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point have assembled some of the best and brightest thinkers in the counterterrorism, policy, and scientific communities around the world for their perspectives and analysis on the evolution of the biological threat picture. The result is a two-volume set of special issues, with the second volume being published this month. In the feature article, Gary Ackerman, Zachary Kallenborn, and Philipp Bleek present a bioterrorism classification schema to evaluate the pandemic’s impact on bioterrorism. They assess that “when it comes to bioterrorism, the pandemic probably has not moved the needle much. Although COVID-19 might encourage apocalyptic cults, some radical environmentalists, some extreme right-wing groups, and some Islamist extremist groups toward biological weapons, most other terrorist groups are more likely to be discouraged. The pandemic has bolstered some terrorists’ bio-related capabilities but in at most modest ways. At the same time, lessons from the COVID-19 experience may both help reduce the consequences of a future attack and heighten perceptions of bioterrorism risk.” Our interview is with Shmuel Shapira, who served as Director General of the Israel Institute for Biological Research between 2013 and 2021. Audrey Kurth Cronin argues that “the most significant new risks of [biological] attacks come largely from insider threats by knowledgeable scientists with questionable motives, proxy actors backed by adversarial states, or even those experimenting with new biotechnologies irresponsibly.” She writes that “the old threats of bioterrorism remain, but they are joined by new ones that are falling between the seams of biology and other disciplines, especially engineering, data science, and computer science, and especially at the intersection between molecular biology and artificial intelligence.” Jaime Yassif argues it is vital to “take action to safeguard the life sciences to prevent biotechnology catastrophe, in addition to bolstering law enforcement and intelligence capabilities to more effectively anticipate and prevent bioterrorism and other biological threats.” She writes: “In biosecurity, there is no single solution or intervention that can eliminate all risk. That is why a layered defense is needed, in which multiple interventions in aggregate add up to substantial risk reduction.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Counter-terrorism, COVID-19, Biotechnology, and Bioterrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Global Focus

495. April 2022 Issue

Author:
Stephen Hummel, F. John Burpo, Jeremy Hershfield, Andrew Kick, and Kevin J. O'Donovan
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed nearly one million American lives. It has upended many more and produced disastrous consequences around the world. But it could have been even more catastrophic had Western nations and companies not developed highly effective vaccines. As the world hopefully begins to emerge from the pandemic, it is important to reassess the global biological threat landscape, including the possibility that bioterrorists or other bad actors might seek to exploit advances in biotechnology to engineer a future pandemic. In a joint effort, the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point have assembled some of the best and brightest thinkers in the counterterrorism, policy, and scientific communities around the world for their perspectives and analysis on the evolution of the biological threat picture. The result is a two-volume set of special issues, with the second volume being published next month. The feature article of this volume anticipates how bioterrorists may exploit tunable viral agents in a new age of bioterrorism. The article is authored by Major Stephen Hummel and Colonel F. John Burpo with Lieutenant Colonel Jeremy Hershfield, Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Kick, Kevin O’Donovan, and Colonel Jason Barnhill. They write: “Components of a disease such as transmissibility, lethality, and the infectious window can potentially be modified for desired tactical, operational, or strategic effects. While this capability is currently beyond the skills and knowledge of the biology enthusiast, a trained individual would possess such skills and knowledge, though they may lack the necessary material and infrastructure support. Hence, it is necessary to develop and maintain capabilities that can respond to a variety of pathogens and possible effects.” This issue features an interview with Lawrence Kerr, who until his retirement from government service earlier this year was the Director of the Office of Pandemics and Emerging Threats in the Office of Global Affairs at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. We also interview Brad Ringeisen, the Executive Director of the Innovative Genomics Institute. Before his retirement from government service in July 2020, Dr. Ringeisen served as the Director of the Biological Technologies Office at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Filippa Lentzos, Gregory Koblentz, and Joseph Rodgers argue “the biological risk landscape is rapidly evolving and presents significant new challenges to preventing the accidental, reckless, or malicious misuse of biology. At the same time, oversight systems to ensure that life sciences research is conducted safely, securely, and responsibly are falling behind. An urgent overhaul to realign biorisk management with contemporary risks is needed.”
Topic:
Health, Counter-terrorism, Risk, Pandemic, and Bioterrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

496. They melted down our tanks, we are creating the strongest power in the region – militarist narratives serving the purpose of state capturing

Author:
Luka Steric
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In this publication, BCSP researcher Luka Šterić analyzes how are the militarist narratives used for the legitimising in public the capturing of the state. Defence system capturing is done in various ways. The authorities are using the procurement of armament from different parties to achieve foreign policy goals in order to reduce the external pressure on the authoritarian regime. Insisting on military neutrality and foreign policy balancing, Serbia is trying to keep access to both the Eastern and Western armament markets. Also, through non-transparent contracts, individuals and companies close to the government opulently profit at the expense of the military industry, as well as through exporting weapons oftentimes conducted in contravention of both domestic and international law and norms. However, the focus of this analysis shall be on the militarist narratives constructed by the authorities to legitimise in public the capturing of the state and its defence system. In this publication, we shall present three major militarist narratives used by the authorities to capture the state: the narrative of the personal power of the “commander-in-chief“, the narrative of non-transparent armament in order to defend the country from the external enemy and the narrative of discrediting criticism and political opponents on topics of defence. The narrative of efficient personal power in the defence system has got a dual function. On the one hand, building the cult of a leader as the only guarantor of the state’s success, thus the Army’s success, justifies the non-constitutional concentration of power in the hands of the President. On the other hand, it normalises the military hierarchy as the most efficient model for civilian authorities’ structure, too, whereby the institutional and other mechanisms of government control are discredited. The narrative about the external enemy and the necessity of armament serves to justify the reduced transparency and scandals related to the defence system. The narrative about the inept and non-patriotic former government is used for settling the political accounts with political opponents, as well as for suppression of any criticism against the regime regarding the topics of defence.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

497. Fostering constructive relations Approaches to trust-building in peacebuilding interventions

Author:
Viktoria Budde and Karoline Eichhoff
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The international community is currently facing a dilemma: although building trust between representatives of state institutions and the population is one of the fundamental components of cooperation between donors and recipient countries of support services in the security sector, we are observing worldwide that trust in state institutions fades. Confidence-building initiatives between citizens and, for example, the police and the military obviously do not always contribute to improvement. Therefore, basic assumptions about the role of trust and how trust-building works in conflict societies must be questioned.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Conflict, Social Order, and Trust
Political Geography:
Global Focus

498. Mediating the political transformation of non-state armed groups Workshop report

Author:
Berghof Foundation
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
Together with the United Nations DPO DDR section, our team working to improve international support to transformation processes of non-state armed groups after wars and conflicts, organised a workshop with international experts in Berlin.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

499. Exploring Short-term Solutions to the Global Gas Crisis

Author:
Jun Arima, Hiroshi Hashimoto, Hussein Moghaddam, Yudo Dwinanda Priadi, and Alloysius Joko Purwanto
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This brief explores short-term solutions for stabilising the global gas market so that the world can continue to recover amidst the Russia–Ukraine geopolitical crisis. The proposed solutions consist of (i) across-the-board ramping up of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production; (ii) supporting countries with idle capacities or delayed gas projects in regaining their capacity to produce and export gas, especially to the regions most in need; (iii) an emergency plan initiated by the G20 group to ‘reroute’ LNG cargoes to the world’s regions most in need with low purchasing power; (iv) optimising LNG cargo destinations by taking advantage of specific contractual agreements; (v) issuing statements that can help stabilise the short-term gas market; (vi) intensifying discussions on formulating potential short-term measures to mitigate excessive volatility in prices; and (vii) urgently establishing a universally accessible, real-time information platform on natural gas trade.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

500. Impact of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): A Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Simulation

Author:
Ken Itakura
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study estimates the potential economic effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by using a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates the global supply chains (GSCs) structure, also referred as the global value chains (GVCs). The tariff reduction schedules for the RCEP agreement are incorporated in addition to other large FTAs, such as the CPTPP. Second, the structure of GSCs is included in the CGE model to take into account the importance of trade in intermediate goods and services. This study implements the RCEP simulation scenarios for tariff reductions, services trade liberalization, logistic improvements, and investment commitments. Results show that the real GDP of RCEP members increases by $675 billion in total, of which ASEAN grows by $160 billion
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus