Political Geography: Global Focus / Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 3 Years

1. Global IR Research Programme: From Perplexities to Progressions

Author:: Deepshikha Shahi
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Our basic expectations vis-à-vis ‘the international’ have turned our phenomenal existence into two seemingly irreconcilable cognitive prisons: ‘one world’ with homogenizing propensities (dominated by the West) and ‘many worlds’ with heterogenizing predispositions (embodied by the non-West). Every so often, these cognitive prisons—oscillating between the extreme homogenizing propensities of the West and heterogenizing predispositions of the non-West— become obstacles in implementing effective global partnerships that are required to tackle the challenges thrown by global crisis-situations, e.g., the likelihoods of world war, financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, and the like. The agenda of the ‘Global IR research programme’ has emerged to demolish these cognitive prisons. To this end, this agenda finds rational support from multiple auxiliary theories that derive stimulus from hitherto denigrated knowledge-forms thriving in different corners of the world: e.g., Tianxia (all-under-heaven) from China, Advaita (non-duality) from India, and Mu No Basho (place of nothingness) from Japan. Nevertheless, the conditioned reflexes of many IR researchers compel them to receive the emergent knowledge-forms by correlating their ‘source’ and ‘scope’: generally, the knowledge-forms having their source in the West are granted a global scope, whereas the knowledge-forms having their source in the non-West are given a local scope; it is often suspected that the local non-Western knowledge-forms cannot grasp the larger global scenario. Philosophically, these conditioned reflexes emanate from Kantian dualism, which forms disconnected opposites of phenomena-noumena, science-metaphysics, West–non-West etc. This article reveals how the Global IR research programme—inspired by the Chinese, Indian and Japanese cosmovisions—strives to demolish the cognitive prisons of ‘one world versus many worlds’, thereby ensuring the prospective progressions of this research programme.
Topic:: International Relations and Research
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, and Global Focus

2. Are We There Yet? A Global Investigation of Knowledge Inclusion in International Relations Theory Curricula

Author:: Jacqui Ala
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: It is now rather well established that most International Relations (IR) theories are predicated on Western knowledges. This potentially limits their analytical capacity to explain international relations beyond Western ideological values or interests. However, in recent years there has been a substantial increase in scholarship not only critiquing the Western centric nature of International Relations theory but also exploring the contributions that knowledges from the global South make to the field of IR theory. Thus, the status quo is shifting, albeit slowly. Nevertheless, the impact as well as the implication of this shift toward knowledge plurality for the IR theory curricula has not been paid adequate attention. Consequently, this article investigates whether the demand for knowledge plurality in the realm of IR theory research has made inroads into the arena of pedagogy resulting in the generation of knowledge plural IR theory curricula. Moreover, it examines the different choices and interpretations made by educators in endeavouring to create knowledge plural IR theory curricula in various global contexts. Further, it endeavours to discern the factors that have informed and/or shaped respondents’ curricula and pedagogical choices pertaining to the selection, structuring and transmission of IR knowledge at tertiary education institutions in different geographical contexts. Ultimately, it reflects on the implications of the increase in knowledge plural curricula for the development of greater knowledge plurality within the discipline.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Decolonization, Knowledge Systems, and Curriculum
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders

Author:: Hasan Basri Barit
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In the last decade, there has been a growing interest in Global International Relations (IR), which calls for a non-Western approach to IR, an endeavor that has produced several books and articles. One recent such work is Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders by Ayşe Zarakol in 2022. This book differs from other studies on Global IR with its alternative narrative based on the Chingissid world order, which challenges Eurocentrism from an Asian angle with the help of the IR terminology that we use today.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Book Review, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

4. Disentangling Government Responses: How Do We Know When Accountability Work Is Gaining Traction?

Author:: Jonathan Fox, Brendan Halloran, Alta Fölscher, and Rosie McGee
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Advocacy for public accountability aims to produce certain reactions from government officials or service providers. However, the reactions can be many and diverse, and it is not always clear to advocates how to interpret them and decide on next steps—whether to intensify efforts or back off; continue the same strategy or make adjustments. This paper presents a framework to help accountability advocates and practitioners interpret government reactions to their efforts and move forward appropriately. The framework arises from learning and reflection in the context of the International Budget Partnership (IBP)’s Strengthening Public Accountability with Results and Knowledge (SPARK) program. SPARK seeks to bolster the collective agency of marginalized communities and coalitions to advance democratic and equitable fiscal governance systems that channel public resources to services that address the priority needs of these historically excluded groups.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Accountability, and Financial Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5. The Invisible Leverage of the Top 1 Percent: Absentee Debtors and Their Hedge Funds

Author:: Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The existing literature on finance, debt and inequality depicts economic elites as a creditor class. According to a popular thesis, over the past four decades, the rich and ultra-rich households in the top 1 percent have experienced a saving glut (excess income), which they have invested in the debts of the poor and their governments. While it is undeniable that the rich have expanded their income share at the expenses of the poor, to refer to them as ‘creditors’ or ‘lenders’ is a misrepresentation of how they actually expand their wealth and income shares by financial means. For it conceals the fact that a great deal of their investments is leveraged, that is, carried out with borrowed money. This article shows that the debts generated by individuals and households in the top 1 percent easily surpass those of all other households and even exceed those of the most indebted states in the world. However, these debts are hard to estimate, and indeed they are not accounted for in statistics on household debt. This is because households in the top 1 percent do not borrow from banks, like normal households do, but they are instead absentee debtors who borrow through the hedge funds, private equity firms, personal investment trusts, and big banks of which they are dominant shareholders and ultimate beneficiaries. To gain an insight into their invisible leverage, the article looks at how much hedge funds borrow, and why their leverage matters.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, Inequality, Finance, Elites, Hedge Funds, and Leverage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

6. Good Intentions, Better Outcomes: Shifting the Debate About Social Protection and Informality

Author:: James Heintz and Jayati Ghosh
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The introduction of social protections for individuals engaged in paid employment frequently comes up against arguments that such measures would have an adverse impact on employment, reduce access to formal jobs, and result in greater informality. The argument is that, while well intentioned, such policies distort labor markets and generate significant economic costs that either leave some workers worse off than they would have been in the absence of such protection, or the interventions become a drag on overall economic performance, encumbering the process of development. In what follows we critically evaluate such arguments and provide responses to the claim that social protections lead to higher informality. We also consider the challenges involved in providing social protection to different types of workers, including not only those employed by others but specifically the self-employed and unpaid workers.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. IMF Standby Agreements and Inequality: The Role of Informality

Author:: Ceyhun Elgin and Adem Elveren
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In this paper we investigate the response of two inequality metrics to different IMF programs. To this end, we use a relatively large annual (unbalanced) cross-country panel dataset that includes the Gini index and the Estimated Household Income Inequality as the two relevant inequality metrics and covers the period from 1950 to 2016 in an annual basis for 159 countries. Our empirical analysis indicates that in countries where the informal sector size (as percentage of GDP) is relatively larger, the extent of income inequality increases after different IMF programs, but particularly so after standby arrangements. However, we also show that the opposite is true, when informal sector size is small, i.e., inequality declines after different IMF programs.
Topic:: Political Economy, Inequality, IMF, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Transnational Cooperation -- An Explorative Collection

Author:: Stephan Klingebiel and Sven Grimm
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The present collection of short papers is an experimental, explorative and introspective German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) project on international and transnational cooperation for development and sustainability. It is the product of internal brainstorming discussions at IDOS in mid-2022 that aspired to conduct a preliminary, exemplary mapping of the use of “transnational lenses” and their understandings across various work strands at the institute. This might lead to new questions in our work, or it might simply be an attempt to look at our topics of interest with a different perspective.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Transnational Actors, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. International Relations in Search of an Antidote

Author:: Ali L. Karaosmanoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This essay is based on the author’s long-time observation of the International Relations discipline and the repeated crises it has experienced. The piece identifies ‘event-drivenness’ as the structural reason behind these crises, in other words, the course of the discipline naturally follows global IR events and, depending on how transformative these events are, when responding to them, is more likely to fall into an existential crisis—with the most recent one being potentially fatal. By discussing in detail the a) science-statecraft relationship; b) scholar-practitioner disconnect; c) distortion of theories by scholars and practitioners; d) paradoxical relationship between rationality and irrationality; and e) theory-practice disconnect, the essay seeks to operationalize these crisisgenerated processes when responding to major events. In order to show these crisis generation processes in detail, it uses the theories of political realism and, to a lesser degree, classical liberalism, as case reflections. As a possible solution to the reciprocal condescension between scholarship (theory-making) and statecraft (practice), the essay proposes a “Clausewitzian” modus vivendi that aims at creating a culture of synthesis between the presumed producers and consumers of IR knowledge.
Topic:: International Relations, Academia, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. The Monroe Doctrine as the Will and Idea of the United States of America

Author:: Boris Martynov
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: On February 24, 2022, international relations entered a whole new stage of development affecting, albeit to varying degrees, practically all states, with no end in sight. On September 7, 2022, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world was experiencing “fundamental transformations.” Such transformations generally require several years to be completed. By the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, two highly important signs of a new situation have become absolutely clear: a crisis of the old institutions of global governance and the new rising and developing centers of power. At the same time, the opinion that the new is just the “well-forgotten old” is confirmed. This is especially true of the US and its policies.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, Governance, Law, Psychology, Identity, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America

11. Advancing Equity: Mentorship in Peace and Security

Author:: Kimberly Gillies
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: In this report, we synthesize findings from original interviews and extensive research into what makes an effective DEI strategy, the impact of mentorship —particularly on people of color—and how to elevate equity-focused mentoring within the fields of peace, security, and foreign policy. We close with a recommendation to CRAVE mentoring opportunities by founding, joining, or supporting initiatives that: create opportunity for cross-identity contact; establish responsibility structures; cultivate social accountability for involvement; are voluntary; and engage participants in their evolution.
Topic:: Security, Women, Diversity, Peace, Inclusion, Equity, People of Color (POC), and Mentorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

12. Local Voices, Global Action: Transnational Organizing in Apparel Supply Chains

Author:: Judy Gearhart
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: This working paper discusses transnational organizing in apparel supply chains. It learns from labor rights advocates in the global South who are building social movements, advocating for national reforms, and promoting new forms of accountability in the apparel industry. In particular, the paper examines how the Bangladesh Center for Worker Solidarity (BCWS) and Cambodia’s Center for Alliance of Labor and Human Rights (CENTRAL) have each played a critical role in advancing new agreements and monitoring their implementation. They have increasingly influenced and become leaders in the Clean Clothes Campaign Network. Based on multiple interviews with CENTRAL’s Tola Moeun and BCWS’s Kalpona Akter, the paper traces how they have worked with international allies to expose flaws in supply chain monitoring in the apparel industry. It discusses how they worked with independent trade unions to build grassroots campaigns that often preceded or inspired international campaigns. At the same time as Moeun and Akter came under threat for their national advocacy, they engaged international allies and became experts on trade policy and global supply chains. They are now not only leading proponents of enforceable, multiparty agreements between multinational corporations (MNCs) and independent trade unions, but also advocates for more effective mandatory human rights due diligence laws (MHRDD). Balancing this international advocacy with organizing for national policy reforms is a strategy made all the more necessary by the context of shrinking civic space in Bangladesh and Cambodia. Many companies are seeking to strengthen their human rights due diligence in supplier countries and to engage stakeholders in that process. At this time, the perspectives and experience of BCWS and CENTRAL help identify what is needed to advance more worker-centered approaches. Three sets of lessons emerge about what is needed to sustain transnational supply chain advocacy movements. Firstly, movement-building and trust are vital ingredients in effective supply chain advocacy. Secondly, it is important for human rights due diligence processes to take into account risks to worker rights. Thirdly, strengthening worker voice in global supply chains requires more effective scrutiny and regulation of MNCs.
Topic:: Reform, Accountability, Industry, Labor Rights, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. The Postcolonial Vortex

Author:: Photis Lysandrou and Yvonne Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The subject of this paper is the contemporary postcolonial condition. Its central argument is that this condition is one of perpetual entrapment in circular motion as any progression registered by postcolonial countries by participating in the global capitalist system as independent states is continually offset by a backward-pulling regression arising out of their subordinate position in that system. This entrapment in 'proregression', to abbreviate the progression-regression nexus, is not in itself a new experience for postcolonial countries. What is new is the primary mechanism that perpetuates proregression: where in the previous eras of colonialism and neo-colonialism that primary mechanism rested on the force of authority, in the current postcolonial era it rests on the force of gravity. It is testimony to the strength of this force that even those emerging capitalist countries that have never been the subject of external control in the colonial era are now also caught in the predicament of proregression. However, the fact that the postcolonial countries have previous experience of proregression makes their present experience going forward even more acute. It is as if their history is caught in an endless series of overlapping cycles, as each mode of progression on a higher plane of development is countered by a mode of regression on an equivalent plane of development. In short, it is as if their whole history is caught in a vortex.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Political Theory, and Capitalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14. Rethinking Monopoly as a Power Relation: The Shift from Market to Intellectual Monopoly

Author:: Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The critical literature on monopolies, from monopoly capital to recent contributions, focuses on the organization that concentrates either market power, capital or property rights. I complement this literature by conceptualizing monopolies as a power relation, which enables me to integrate different ways in which the term is used, from capitalists’ monopoly over the means of production to intellectual monopolization. As I explain here, some firms have developed greater capacities to systematically monopolize intangibles that are essential for organizing labour beyond their owned assets and for controlling demand. Coupled with institutional, political and technological changes, larger absorptive and management capacities to produce and capture knowledge and information resulted in firms’ technological differentiation. The systematic winners of the innovation race hold persistent intellectual monopolies while other firms become subordinate due to their lack of technical autonomy. From this perspective, (intellectual) monopoly power is essential for understanding the distribution of value in capitalism.
Topic:: Political Economy, Labor Issues, Capitalism, Monopoly, Capital, Power Relations, and Value Capture
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Sellers’ Inflation, Profits, and Conflict: Why Can Large Firms Hike Prices in an Emergency?

Author:: Isabella Weber and Evan Wasner
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bottlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers’ inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. Policy should aim to contain price hikes at the impulse stage to prevent inflation from the onset.
Topic:: Political Economy, Inflation, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16. How Does Globalisation Affect Social Cohesion?

Author:: Kasper Vrolijk
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper explores the effects of globalisation on social cohesion outcomes and the underlying mechanisms. A framework for reviewing the literature is offered, in which labour earnings, household expenditures and firm productivity are identified as the main channels through which economic globalisation affects cohesion, trust and pro-social behaviour. Evidence points towards substantial losses in cohesion following negative globalisation changes, altering cohesion through absolute and relative changes in employment and expenditure (and people’s perception thereof). However, evidence is thin and inconsistent; studies are limited to effects of trade (and not foreign direct investment), cover some dimensions of cohesion but not others, and often evaluate the effect of negative trade events on cohesion (while trade and foreign direct investment may offer gains to workers, households and firms, which boosts cohesion). From the available evidence, it is determined that when setting policy, it is important to address relative losses from globalisation (between groups), incorporate economic costs of social repercussions, and take on market distortions and underlying cyclical or secular trends that may amplify the effects of globalisation on cohesion.
Topic:: Globalization, Economy, Trade, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. (R)evolution? Exploring the Potential of Post-Development Approaches for Reforming Development Cooperation

Author:: Patrick Köllner
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The concept and mainstream approaches of development cooperation (DC) have been criticised since the early beginning of their existence. Post-development (PD) scholars have been criticising international DC since 1990 for both its Western perspective and the lack of reflection on asymmetrical power structures. Since also today DC has to face a variety of criticisms, we perceive PD approaches as a starting point for efforts towards change. We asked (1) to what extent and how elements of post-development approaches are reflected in the current policy initiatives of international DC, and (2) what potential do PD approaches have to reform DC. We analysed three examples: German feminist development policy (FemDP) as a relatively new idea of transformation, the locally led development approach as a long-standing concept and Global Public Investment (GPI) as an approach towards a new concept of international cooperation. By means of a content analysis, four commonly used PD elements were selected and slightly adapted to examine whether and how the three policy initiatives acknowledge PD aspects in order to reform DC: (1) the concept of alternatives to development, (2) pluralism of knowledge and power dynamics, (3) user-centred approaches and a critical stance towards the established scientific discourse and (4) the promotion of grassroots movements and local ownership. We discovered a variation in the use of the different PD elements. Although aspects related to power relations, post-colonial structures and knowledge management are prominent in all three initiatives, elements such as grassroots movements are given less consideration in all three cases. Even though FemDP does not focus on an alternative to development, as defined by PD approaches, it puts a strong emphasis on a transformative approach when it comes to its user-centred empowerment and tackles power imbalances by approaching decolonisation. Subsequently, the efforts of German Development Minister Svenja Schulze do not just describe a rhetorical reorientation but involve actual transformative efforts. However, further implementation efforts need to be analysed. The locally led development approach seems to be a suitable springboard for the inclusion of local knowledge and grassroots movements. Whereas the approach mostly uses descriptions of change as a means to reach its objectives, the GPI concept in particular uses PD elements as a reformative approach, as per the PD definition, putting the objective of the transformation of international public finance in international cooperation at its centre. Valuing PD approaches, we conclude that they do influence public initiatives in one way or another. In the future, if inner-systemic change should become an option, we see the greatest added value when PD scholars succeed in underpinning their approaches with instruments that can be used as tools in DC practice.
Topic:: Development, Public Investment, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

18. Tax Expenditures in OECD Countries: Findings from the Global Tax Expenditures Database

Author:: Martin Beznoska
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Global Tax Expenditures Database (https://GTED.net/) collects national reports on tax expenditures for 101 countries for the period from 1990 to the present. Based on these data, the development of tax expenditures in the 38 OECD countries between 1999 and today is examined. A look at the data shows that even in countries with high GDP and comprehensive tax coverage, reporting is often incomplete. For a subset of 16 OECD countries for which (relatively) continuous reporting over the period is available, we look at the development of tax benefits for households and firms. We can show that data availability improves over time. For the development of business tax expenditures, a weakly significant positive trend can be identified in terms of tax revenues foregone, driven mainly by the Netherlands and Ireland. Both countries are known for wanting to strengthen their business location through generous tax expenditures for businesses. Tax expenditures for private households, which are on average higher than the level of tax expenditures for businesses in the countries under review, do not show any significant time trend, even though they were increasingly used to relieve the burden on private households and businesses during the financial crisis of 2008/09. In order to compare tax expenditures between countries and to better assess their effectiveness, regular reporting at the national level, transparent definitions and ideally uniform standards would be helpful. Regular monitoring by a commission of experts could contribute to the consistency and comparability.
Topic:: Development, Business, Tax Systems, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus

19. U.S. and Global Approaches to Financing Long-Term Care: Understanding the Patchwork

Author:: Celli Horstman, Evan D. Gumas, and Gretchen Jacobson
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: Most United States adults age 65 and older will need long-term care toward the end of their lives.1 Long-term care, provided in the home, community, or in institutional settings like a nursing home, includes medical care as well as personal, nonmedical care for people who are unable to perform activities of daily living, like cooking or bathing. Some services also may support social needs for those unable to perform what are known as instrumental activities of daily living, such as shopping or medication management. In 2018, more than 5 million people in the United States used home health care, including adult day care or home health agency services, and nearly 4 million people resided in nursing homes or residential care communities.2 Despite the widespread need for long-term care, the U.S. has no national program to cover the costs of long-term care. While certain states have implemented their own programs, the resulting patchwork of funding has left many Americans with no sustainable way to pay for the services they require. Other developed countries have comprehensive, national long-term care financing systems featuring broad eligibility and high levels of financial support. In this brief, we analyze data from multiple sources on long-term care costs in the U.S., as well as spending data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), to better understand long-term care financing strategies in 12 high-income countries. In addition to these data, we synthesized initiatives to long-term care funding in these 12 countries. (For details, see “How We Conducted This Study.”) Since the U.S. does not have a national funding strategy, we also focused on individual state approaches. International and U.S. state approaches may provide insights to policymakers seeking to advance comprehensive long-term care funding.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Inequality, and Social Services
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. The Future of Neutrality

Author:: Pascal Lottaz
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Neutrality is a naturally occurring phenomenon. There have always been actors on the world stage that have remained outside the conflicts of others, be they countries, religious institutions or international organisations (IOs). Even during the two world wars and the first Cold War (i.e. the US and its allies versus the USSR and its allies), some actors managed to avoid the battlefields or claimed a position separate from the various alliance systems. Despite the beliefs of some commentators that neutrality is coming to an end, there is no indication that world politics is actually about to change dramatically enough to eradicate the reasons and logic for neutrality. In fact, the least conductive international environment for neutrality – unipolarity – seems to be ending. What could be called the “New Cold War” (the West-aligned countries versus Russia in Europe and versus China in Asia) and the emerging multipolar world will likely produce the dynamics leading to more neutrality as a counter-reaction to the new great power rivalry. We should expect neutrality and neutralism – i.e. political movements demanding the adoption of neutrality policies – to strengthen. Nevertheless, neutrality is shifting. It is moving from Europe to other regions of the world, and, in the process, will likely also change conceptually. This Policy Brief will first describe the nature of neutrality and the three basic motivations for actors to opt for its policies. It then discusses the challenges any neutrality policy faces and will conclude by providing concrete recommendations for policymakers seeking to maintain neutrality vis-à-vis either hot or cold conflicts.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Neutrality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. Using Targeted Sanctions to Help Prevent Mass Atrocities: Results from Interviews with Experienced Practitioners

Author:: Tallan Donine, Kyra Fox, Daniel Solomon, Alex Vandermaas-Peeler, and Lawerence Woocher
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The Simon-Skjodt Center’s “lessons learned” project aims to understand better how policy makers, across all levels of government, can take effective action to prevent mass atrocity crimes and protect civilian populations in situations where they face serious threats of group-targeted, systematic violence. We have sought to identify, distill, and organize insights on a range of policy tools—ranging from “naming and shaming” to sanctions to prosecutions—which are sometimes used to help prevent or respond to mass atrocities. To complement our review of the empirical research literature on the use of targeted sanctions, we conducted interviews with people who had substantial policy or operational experience working in the US government on targeted sanctions prior to 2021. The premise for the interviews is that experienced practitioners have important insights about when and how targeted sanctions can be most effective in helping prevent mass atrocities.3 While one can find many ideas about how to use targeted sanctions most effectively, none that we are aware of are: (1) focused specifically on the use of targeted sanctions for mass atrocity prevention and (2) based on the collective perspectives of a set of experienced practitioners. This report summarizes the results of the interviews with experienced targeted sanctions practitioners. Details on the methods employed and the interview respondents are presented in appendices.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Social Media Platforms, the Risks of Mass Atrocities, and Opportunities for Atrocity Prevention: 2023 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:: Tallan Donine
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On January 19 and 24, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum brought together a diverse group of scholars, representatives of social media companies, practitioners, and policy makers for two 90-minute virtual convenings to discuss social media platforms, the risks of mass atrocities, and opportunities for atrocity prevention. Motivations for this seminar included (1) taking stock of knowledge about the relationship between social media, mass atrocities, and atrocity prevention; (2) generating new ideas for future research or practice on this topic; and (3) exploring how the Simon-Skjodt Center can play a constructive role in this area. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key observations raised during both discussions under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution and does not necessarily represent the views of all participants. The first session focused on exploring the interaction between social media platforms and risks of mass atrocities. Guiding questions included: • How might social media platforms contribute to risk factors associated with mass atrocities? • How might perpetrators use social media platforms to enact mass atrocities? • How might the relationship between social media platforms and mass atrocities change in the future? The second session focused on social media platforms and the prevention of mass atrocities. Guiding questions included: • How do technology firms and others understand the risks that social media platforms may inadvertently contribute to the commission of mass atrocities? • What steps have firms taken to date to address these risks? • What new or different actions can social media companies take to design and manage their platforms in ways that would help reduce risks of mass atrocities? • What type of regulation of social media platforms would most effectively balance interests in civil liberties and violence prevention?
Topic:: Genocide, Social Media, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Social Media, Mass Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention: 2023 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:: Daniel Solomon and Tallan Donine
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: In 2018, anti-Muslim extremists in Sri Lanka organized a series of attacks against Muslim civilians throughout the country (Taub and Fisher 2018). Extremist leaders used a misleading viral video to stoke fears that the country’s Muslim minority was organizing a campaign to sterilize the majority Sinhalese population en masse. The video circulated widely on Facebook, and participants in the violence also set up private WhatsApp groups to coordinate the violence. This is just one example of a disturbing pattern that is increasingly under the spotlight: social media seeming to fuel violence, including large-scale and deliberate attacks on civilians based on their identity. These examples have become widespread in recent years, with attacks on the Rohingya community in Burma, the Muslim community in India, and multiple marginalized groups in Ethiopia and elsewhere following a similar trajectory. Influential users appeared to use social media in these cases to dehumanize their targets, recruit participants, and coordinate violence. Amid public outcry social media firms have begun to develop or revise some policies to limit the spread of harmful content. In the Sri Lanka case, Meta—which operates both Facebook and WhatsApp— acknowledged and apologized for the platforms’ role in the violence (Facebook 2020), issued a series of human rights impact assessments of its role, and stated it would implement policies to address associated human rights concerns from its products, with applications to other high-risk contexts (Sissons 2020). Across social media companies, responses to concerns about “offline harm” have largely focused on content moderation, modifying algorithms that promote different kinds of content, and restricting access to certain users. Many advocates argue that actions to date have not gone far enough, asserting that stronger action—including government regulation—is necessary to prevent social media from contributing to violence, including mass atrocities. Social media use will only continue to rise, especially in countries at high risk of new mass atrocities. Beyond select cases, however, there is insufficient research about the specific relationship between social media platforms and the onset and escalation of mass atrocities—or how social media companies and government actors might limit these platforms’ potential negative effects. The goal of this paper is to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between social media technologies and the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, policy documents, and public statements by social media companies, the paper surveys current knowledge and identifies important gaps in understanding about (1) how social media platforms have contributed to the risk and occurrence of mass atrocities in the past and how they might do so in the future;1 and (2) strategies to help prevent social media from fueling mass atrocities.
Topic:: Social Media, Facebook, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: India, Sri Lanka, and Global Focus

24. Catch-up and Leapfrog Strategies for Developing Countries: Making a Case for a Social Spring

Author:: Leonardo Paz Neves
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There is an ongoing consensus that we are on the brink, if not already started, of a major technological revolution. The Fourth Industrial Revolution has a wider and deeper transformative power. It could be considered a major paradigm shift of our time. Its importance is characterized by a wave of innovation in many fields, yet it is not compartmentalized in silos of technological advancements and product innovation. Each of those breakthroughs ripples in many other spheres as productive, labor, social, economic, health, etc. And in every transition, every transformation, new opportunity arrives. In paradigm shifts like these, ‘Windows of Opportunity’ are opened. Perez and Soete (1988) studied the entry phase, which developing countries should use in their development strategies to catch-up with industrialized countries, arguing that from time to time, the entry barriers recede, creating a window of opportunity for those developing countries. Taking advantage of these windows of opportunity is fundamentally conditioned to the ‘social capability’ of these lagging countries (Abramovitz 1995). There is because, in the moments in which the edge based in tech experience is not a determinant factor and the entry barriers recede, latecomers have a better chance in catching-up. But, they will only be able to compete with the leading economies if certain social conditions are met. With fewer development pol-icy options, these countries will have to go be-yond the classic developmental approach to succeed in leapfrogging and take the lead. Thus, while forging their path towards devel-opment, developing countries should try to take their own past experience and reassess it from a different perspective.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economic Development, and Opportunity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Covid-19 Crisis and Shifts in the Corporate Competitive Landscape: Comparisons with Previous Economic Crises

Author:: Sang-Ha Yoon, Yaein Baek, Wontae Han, Yoonsoo Lee, and Daisoon Kim
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In terms of economic fluctuations, it is well recognized that the effects of an economic crisis have a detrimental impact on the entry, growth, decline, and exit of firms. In addition, the magnitude of the impact varies both within and between industries depending on the size and other characteristics of the firm. The economy is going through significant changes due to the emergence of new industries and the decline or disappearance of current ones. This study looks at how big economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis have affected businesses and industries. After completing a study at several levels of top international corporations, larger domestic enterprises, and domestic small and medium-sized businesses, it attempts to draw policy implications. First, it is necessary to foster and support top-tier companies to defend against global economic fluctuations and strengthen international competitiveness. In particular, the institution in charge of competition policies domestically and the institution that helps companies improve their competitiveness are different and the focus of policies is distinctive, so comprehensive attention and perspective of policymakers are needed. Second, it is urgent to respond to new issues related to competition policy in the domestic market. The behavior of emerging big tech and platform companies is different from monopoly companies in the past, so consumer welfare is not impaired, but it burdens nearby and other market participants. Therefore, a view that deviates from the focus on monopoly pricing is also essential for competition policy. Third, measures to support global corporate growth and countermeasures against changes in the industrial landscape should be prepared. Investment and R&D expansion at the corporate level is essential for corporate growth, and measures are needed to boost investment in recently emerging intangible assets. In addition, it is important to revitalize the movement of economic resources to cope with changes in the inter-industry landscape accompanied by the crisis. Fourth, policies to revitalize start-ups and closures are required. The decline in new companies' market entry and exit rates is a symtom of an aging economy contributing to the overall decrease in productivity. Therefore, enhancing the revitalization of the corporate ecosystem and expanding the size of enterprises are essential to enhance the dynamics of the economy. Fifth, it is necessary to find an appropriate combination of government roles in times of crisis. In particular, it is important to grasp the detailed status of economic stabilization policies in relation to SMEs, and at the same time, clear judgments on the appropriate size of support measures, the period of support, and the timing of collection are urgently needed.
Topic:: Economics, COVID-19, Corporations, Economic Crisis, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. Analysis on the Determinants of Labor Share and Its Policy Implications

Author:: Yaein Baek, Minsoo Han, Wongi Kim, and Hyunsuk Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There has been a significant decline in the global labor share, leading to numerous studies about the cause of this drop. The labor share is used as one of the main indicators of inequality because a decrease in the labor share can lead to aggravation of income inequality. This is because low-skilled workers can be greatly affected by such a decline in the labor share and the main source of in-come for the low-income class, including the self-employed, is labor income. Among various indicators of inequality, this study analyzes the determinants of the change in labor share. Technological changes such as adoption of robots, advancements in information and communications technology (ICT) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) are expected to change the labor market. Hence, this study analyzes the impact of technological changes on labor share and suggests policy responses.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America

28. External Processing: A Tool to Expand Protection or Further Restrict Territorial Asylum?

Author:: Pauline de Oliveira and Nicholas Feith Tan
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Access to territorial asylum is under significant pressure in many corners of the world. Pushbacks at borders as well as pandemic-era mobility restrictions have prevented many asylum seekers from reaching their destinations. And new and ongoing crises, including those in Afghanistan and Ukraine, have highlighted the need to offer protection closer to where vulnerable populations live, and for high-income countries to find ways to share responsibilities with the low- and middle-income countries that host the overwhelming majority of people in need of international protection. This has led to renewed interest in external processing, which involves conducting part or all of the asylum procedure outside a destination country’s territory. Notably, even as countries such as Australia and the United Kingdom have adopted policies to offshore asylum processing to countries such as Papua New Guinea and Rwanda in hopes of deterring spontaneous arrivals, there is growing interest in using external processing in ways that complement existing territorial asylum and expand, rather than restrict, protection opportunities. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—highlights the opportunities that external processing offers as well as the challenges to its implementation and the risks it could pose to territorial asylum. It explores three categories of external processing policies implemented or proposed to date: humanitarian visas, emergency evacuations, and external processing centers. The report also identifies key conditions that must be present for external processing to occur in a protection-sensitive manner.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Refugees, Asylum, Visa, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Australia, Rwanda, Papua New Guinea, and Global Focus

29. POWER, NOT PEACE: THE ACHILLES’ HEEL OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES

Author:: Timothy D. Sisk
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The row between International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over potential Russian and Belarussian athlete participation at Paris 2024 exposes the Achilles’ Heel of the Olympic Games: the peace-promising celebrations are inescapably ensnared in nation-state power politics. The IOC announced on January 25 a proposal to facilitate participation in the 2024 Olympic Games for individual athletes from Russia (and close ally Belarus) individually and neutrally in the Paris games. The statement reversed an IOC Executive Board decision from February 28, 2022, to impose more sweeping participation sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion.
Topic:: Sports, Olympics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

30. Mitigating Global Fragmentation in Digital Trade Governance: A Case Study

Author:: Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Digital trade is growing rapidly, and regulators are trying to keep up. Concerns about privacy, consumer protection and national security demand regulatory attention, but too much regulation risks stifling digital trade. Current-generation trade agreements need to find the right balance between regulatory and liberal approaches to e-commerce. This paper looks at how five leading digital economies (Canada, the European Union, Japan, Singapore and the United States) are using regional trade agreements to address concerns while enhancing trade.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

31. Building Trust in AI: A Landscape Analysis of Government AI Programs

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: As countries around the world expand their use of artificial intelligence (AI), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has developed the most comprehensive website on AI policy, the OECD.AI Policy Observatory. Although the website covers public policies on AI, the author of this paper found that many governments failed to evaluate or report on their AI initiatives. This lack of reporting is a missed opportunity for policy makers to learn from their programs (the author found that less than one percent of the programs listed on the OECD.AI website had been evaluated). In addition, the author found discrepancies between what governments said they were doing on the OECD.AI website and what they reported on their own websites. In some cases, there was no evidence of government actions; in other cases, links to government sites did not work. Evaluations of AI policies are important because they help governments demonstrate how they are building trust in both AI and AI governance and that policy makers are accountable to their fellow citizens.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Trust, and Trust-building
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. Could a Global “Wicked Problems Agency” Incentivize Data Sharing?

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Global data sharing could help solve “wicked” problems (problems such as climate change, terrorism and global poverty that no one knows how to solve without creating further problems). There is no one or best way to address wicked problems because they have many different causes and manifest in different contexts. By mixing vast troves of data, policy makers and researchers may find new insights and strategies to address these complex problems. National and international government agencies and large corporations generally control the use of such data, and the world has made little progress in encouraging cross-sectoral and international data sharing. This paper proposes a new international cloud-based organization, the "Wicked Problems Agency," to catalyze both data sharing and data analysis in the interest of mitigating wicked problems. This organization would work to prod societal entities — firms, individuals, civil society groups and governments — to share and analyze various types of data. The Wicked Problems Agency could provide a practical example of how data sharing can yield both economic and public good benefits.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Data, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

33. Why Does the Global Spyware Industry Continue to Thrive? Trends, Explanations, and Responses

Author:: Steven Feldstein and Brian (Chun Hey) Kot
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The global spyware and digital forensics industry continues to grow despite public backlash following an array of surveillance scandals, many linked to NSO Group’s Pegasus program. This paper explores the resilience of the commercial spyware market and offers ideas about how to limit the spread of invasive cyber surveillance tools. It highlights several factors driving the industry, including elevated demand for intrusion technology from government clients and private customers, as well as inconsistent political will from democratic governments to crack down on these technologies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Surveillance, Industry, Forensic Science, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Phase-based Tactical Analysis of Online Operations

Author:: Ben Nimmo and Eric Hutchins
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The online threatscape in 2023 is characterized by an unprecedented variety of actors, types of operation, and threat response teams. Threat actors range from intelligence agencies and troll farms to child-abuse networks. Abuses range from hacking to scams, election interference to harassment. Responders include platform trust-and-safety teams, government agencies, open-source researchers, and others. As yet, these responding entities lack a shared model to analyze, describe, compare, and disrupt the tactics of malicious online operations. Yet the nature of online activity—assuming the targets are human—is such that there are significant commonalities between these abuse types: widely different actors may follow the same chain of steps. By conducting a phase-based analysis of different violations, it is possible to isolate the links in the chain within a unified model, where breaking any single link can disrupt at least part of the operation, and breaking many links—“completing the kill chain”—can disrupt it comprehensively. Using this model will allow investigators to analyze individual operations and identify the earliest moments at which they can be detected and disrupted. It will also enable them to compare multiple operations across a far wider range of threats than has been possible so far, to identify common patterns and weaknesses in the operation. Finally, it will allow different investigative teams across industry, civil society, and government to share and compare their insights into operations and threat actors according to a common taxonomy, giving each a better understanding of each threat and a better chance of detecting and disrupting it.
Topic:: Security, Internet, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35. ACLED Year in Review Global Disorder in 2022

Author:: Timothy Lay
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated the war to a level that dwarfed all other conflicts in 2022, both in the sheer scale of violence and its deadliness. It also obscured a significant overall deterioration of the security situation in most other regions worldwide. Driven by heightened levels of conflict in both new and longstanding hotspots, political violence increased substantially over the course of the year. While 2022 saw some positive developments – including a significant reduction in total violent events in places like Afghanistan and Yemen after years of war – these gains only represent qualified improvements. Despite the aggregate decline in events in Afghanistan and Yemen, for example, they remain home to two of the most complex and severe conflict environments in the world. Globally, political violence targeting civilians became not only more common but also more deadly in 2022, underscoring the fact that it is civilian communities that are increasingly shouldering the burden of rising conflict levels around the world.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Civilians, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Yemen, and Global Focus

36. Collective screening

Author:: Vincent Anesi and Peter Buisseret
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We study a dynamic principal-agent model in which the principal is a group whose members hold heterogeneous and evolving values from an agreement with the agent. Learning about the agent’s private information reduces the principals’ conflicts over their joint offer, mitigating a principal’s losses if she is not decisive over future offers. As a consequence, a principal in a group prefers to screen the agent more aggressively than a single principal. We study the dynamics of the principals’ collective choice, and obtain conditions under which decisive members of the group successively trade away their decision-making authority, leading inexorably to the concentration of negotiation power in the hands of a single principal.
Topic:: Economics, Political Science, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. Can the World Trade Organization be saved? Should it?

Author:: Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Heads of state, trade ministers, and academics have repeatedly called for reforming the World Trade Organization (WTO), the institution charged with the stewardship of the global trading system. The durability and worth of the WTO are being increasingly questioned despite the fact that by almost all objective measures, it has been a great success, with world trade growing much faster than global GDP over the last 75 years. However, past success does not guarantee future performance. This Policy Brief examines the institution’s most serious defects and the multitude of challenges it faces. It suggests the institution needs to evolve to reach broad-based international trade agreements, adding much needed new rules to the world trade rulebook and developing effective means to settle disputes that would render the rules of the system enforceable once again.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. The international tax agreement of 2021: Why it’s needed, what it does, and what comes next?

Author:: Kimberly Clausing
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2021, more than 135 jurisdictions agreed on transformative new international tax rules that would establish a minimum tax rate of 15 percent on multinational corporate income regardless of where it was reported. In December 2022, the European Union unanimously moved forward to implement this minimum tax, and other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom, are also either implementing the tax or taking substantial steps toward implementation. In tandem, the United States should also reform its international tax system and adopt a stronger minimum tax. While the future of the international agreement is uncertain, it has important implications for the ability of governments worldwide to create tax systems that are administrable, fair, and efficient. The agreement also demonstrates important guiding principles for the future of multilateral cooperation on global collective action problems, including efforts to protect public health from future pandemics, address nuclear proliferation, and resolve territorial conflicts. US progress on international tax reform would enhance much needed international cooperation on these issues.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Reform, European Union, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

39. Multilateral development banks are key to unlocking low-carbon investments in developing economies

Author:: Steven Fries
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Over the next three decades, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), and especially middle-income countries, are projected to account for much of the growth in global economic activity and energy use. While a decisive move to low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency would advance both their development goals and a stable climate, the countries have yet to fully tap this opportunity. The multilateral development banks (MDBs) are in a unique position to help lower barriers to low-carbon investments in EMDEs and unlock these sustainable development opportunities. Their differentiating governance, financial and technical capabilities, and financing instruments would enable MDBs to support the necessary business environment and energy reforms and to cofinance low-carbon and energy efficiency investments alongside other investors to reduce and manage risks.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Multilateralism, Investment, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. Carbon border adjustments, climate clubs, and subsidy races when climate policies vary

Author:: Kimberly Clausing and Catherine Wolfram
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Jurisdictions adopt heterogeneous climate policies that vary in terms of both ambition and policy approach, with some jurisdictions pricing carbon and others subsidizing clean production. We distinguish two types of policy spillovers associated with diverse policy approaches to climate change. First, when countries have different levels of climate ambition, free riders will benefit at the expense of more committed countries. Second, when countries pursue different approaches, carbon-intensive producers within cost-imposing jurisdictions will be at a relative competitive disadvantage compared with producers in subsidizing jurisdictions. Carbon border adjustments and climate clubs are attempts to respond to these policy spillovers, but when countries have divergent policy approaches, one policy alone will not be able to address both types of spillovers. We also consider the policy dynamics that result from carbon border adjustments and climate clubs; both have the potential to encourage upward harmonization of climate policy, but they come with risks. Further, the pressures of international competition in the presence of divergent climate policy approaches may result in subsidy races, which come with their own potential risks and benefits.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, and Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. Saving the WTO from the national security exception

Author:: Warren Maruyama and Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For any member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) not making alternative arrangements, enforceability of the rules of the global trading system, a distinguishing feature of the WTO, ceased to exist on December 11, 2019, because the United States blocked appointments to the Appellate Body of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism. A major obstacle to the United States accepting any resolution of this impasse—thus permitting dispute settlement to once again be binding on all WTO members—is settling the issue of whether claims of national security to legitimize trade measures are reviewable. This is a red line for the United States, which argues this claim is nonreviewable. In the emerging area of great power competition, the United States is unlikely to accept a return to fully effective WTO dispute settlement absent a compromise that finds determinations of national security nonjusticiable. This paper offers a compromise: There would be no adjudication of whether a trade measure was justified under the WTO’s national security exception, but those WTO members adversely affected would have an immediate right to rebalance trade concessions themselves by imposing retaliatory trade measures against the WTO member invoking the exception.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, National Security, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. Non-economic loss and damage: closing the knowledge gap

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: Climate-related loss and damage is escalating, with many countries experiencing new forms of climate impact, of increasing intensity. The focus until now has been on calculating the economic repercussions of climate risk. Its wider impacts and resulting hidden costs of climate change — such as loss of cultural heritage — are less understood and harder to quantify. This knowledge gap on non-economic loss and damage, which is largely due to limited coordination around research and sparse evidence originating from the global South, urgently needs addressing. This briefing proposes a comprehensive approach for building the evidence base on non-economic loss and damage, particularly the creation of a Loss and Damage Research Observatory. This online platform will lay the foundations for a collaborative South–South–North community of practitioners, ultimately leading to informed policy on this critical area of climate action.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Displacement, Conservation, Indigenous, Resilience, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Structural transformation and international trade: Evidence from the China shock

Author:: Clément Nedoncelle and Julien Wolfersberger
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: How does international trade affect structural transformation in developing countries? We use data on sectoral allocation of labour and value-added in 46 developing economies over the period 1995–2017 and exploit for identification plausibly exogenous variation in manufacturing imports from China. We find that the so-called ‘China shock’ largely slows down the transformation of low- and middle-income economies out of agriculture. In our main specification industrialization decreases by 0.49 per cent on average for each additional per cent of manufacturing imports from China. It highlights a competition effect where exposure to Chinese imports is largely detrimental to structural transformation. These results hold across geographical regions, with a difference in Sub-Saharan Africa, where international trade causes an increase in the size of the services sector.
Topic:: Development, Economies, Trade, Industrialization, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Digital de-industrialization, global value chains, and structural transformation: Empirical evidence from low- and middle-income countries

Author:: Karishma Banga, Pankhury Harbansh, and Surendar Singh
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Digitalization and shifting patterns of globalization are fast changing the rules of the game for countries embarking on a path of industrialization. In this study, we empirically examine the impact of digitalization and global value chains on structural transformation using a crosscountry panel of 51 economies in the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database for the period 1990–2018. The analysis is based on a novel cross-country panel combining information from the Economic Transformation Database with the UNCTAD EORA data set, World Development Indicators, and Penn World Tables. Structural transformation is examined through changes across three variables: changes in manufacturing labour productivity, manufacturing employment share, and country-level structural change. To address issues related to endogeneity and country fixed effects, we use methodologies of fixed effects with instrumental variables and the two-step system GMM estimator. Results indicate that digitalization has a positive impact on structural change and manufacturing labour productivity but a negative impact on manufacturing employment share, indicating a reallocation of labour from the agricultural sector into services. Overall global value chain participation, and particularly forward participation, has a positive impact on structural change and manufacturing labour productivity.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Industrialization, Global Value Chains, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Sanction-busting through tax havens

Author:: Kerim Can Kavakli, Giovanna Marcolongo, and Diego Zambiasi
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Financial sanctions, which aim to economically hurt a target by restricting its access to financial assets and markets, require the ability to identify who owns an asset. Although experts have long claimed that offshore financial centres that offer secrecy (‘tax havens’) undermine sanctions by hiding ownership information, so far data limitations have prevented a rigorous test of this claim. We overcome this constraint using data from the Bank of International Settlements and the Offshore Leaks Database and conduct the first systematic analysis of the role that tax havens play in financial sanction evasion. Our main finding is that sanction targets reduce their funds in sanctioning countries while increasing their funds in tax havens. This displacement effect is stronger when the sanction coalition includes the United States or comprises more FATF or OECD members. Lastly, whether a tax haven is in the sanctioning coalition does not seem to make a difference. These findings confirm that target countries evade sanctions by moving large portions of their funds from sanctioning countries to tax havens. More broadly, our paper highlights a novel and geostrategically important role of tax havens in global finance.
Topic:: Sanctions, Financial Markets, Leaks, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:: Global Focus

46. More information, better knowledge? The effects of information campaigns on aid beneficiaries’ knowledge of aid projects

Author:: Alexander De Juan, Paul Hofman, and Carlo Koos
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Aid beneficiaries know very little about development interventions in their own communities. This lack of transparency and information is likely to reduce beneficiaries’ ability and willingness to become active in local development. It may also dampen intended aid effects on beneficiaries’ political and social attitudes. Can targeted information campaigns strengthen beneficiaries’ understanding of aid projects? We test the effects of two types of interventions: the provision of information only and the combination of information and feedback opportunities. We embed these interventions in a panel survey in rural Mali. Our information treatment is highly customized to specific local aid projects in respondents’ locations and corresponds to beneficiaries’ ex-ante information demands. Nonetheless, two months after the campaign, we find only small treatment effects on respondents’ project-specific knowledge (type, location) and no effects on their procedural knowledge (selection mechanisms). Only people with favourable ex-ante views of the state’s rule adherence and self-identified non-beneficiaries tend to update their views on procedural knowledge. Finally, we find that the combined information and feedback treatment has an effect on respondents’ subjective knowledge, which we interpret as promising mechanisms for engaging and identifying with aid projects.
Topic:: Fragile States, Development Aid, and Information
Political Geography:: Global Focus

47. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:: Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:: Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. Assessment of institutional set-up of results measurement and reporting systems for non-sovereign operations in development finance institutions

Author:: Patrick Mabuza, Francis H. Kemeze, Oluwatoba J. Omotilewa, Mamadou Bah, and Btissam Benkerroum
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Development finance institutions (DFIs) foster sustainable development through financing, advisory services, and technical assistance. They complement public investments in developing and underserved markets to unlock development opportunities and deliver development results. Whereas DFIs’ missions are known among practitioners, their development achievements are often less understood. Consequently, DFIs have developed different results measurement and reporting systems to document the impacts of their interventions. This includes recent efforts to harmonize development impact indicators for results measurement and reporting. However, less is known about methodologies used in development outcomes assessments, or institutional set-ups for measuring and reporting these outcomes. This hampers knowledge on what works or does not work from a development finance perspective, preventing feedback mechanisms for DFIs to learn from prior interventions, mitigate risks, and ultimately improve subsequent interventions. Using a newly developed integration index score of hard versus soft integration of results measurement and reporting systems, and primary and secondary data from eleven such systems within DFIs, this study examines the set-up and effectiveness of different results reporting systems and mechanisms currently in place in DFIs. Findings reveal that although all interviewed DFIs measure anticipated (ex-ante) and ex-post development outcomes, only 27 per cent operate a fully integrated results measurement and reporting system that permits a 360- degree feedback loop for development effectiveness.
Topic:: Development, Finance, and Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

49. Building resilience knowledge for sustainable development: Insights from development studies

Author:: Albert Sanghoon Park
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper explores how the concept of resilience has been used in development studies. Set amidst the rise of resilience in sustainable development, it offers insights for scholars and policy-makers, alike. Sampling 419 resilience-oriented journal articles from 2017–22, it uses Kuhnian paradigms to analyse development knowledge production. This produces three key findings. First is the absence of a coherent resilience paradigm (with shared definitions, problems, and methods) in development studies. Second is its use, instead, by pre-existing paradigms as a theoretical add-on to better address complexity and/or as a new buzzword to repackage prior arguments. Third are latent possibilities for resilience as both a rallying call and siren song in sustainable development. Here, resilience discourses open vital space for development cooperation and climate action. However, its outcomes will depend on whether we can first understand precisely what we talk about when we talk about resilience.
Topic:: Development, Politics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

50. Gender and poverty as a feminist foreign policy priority

Author:: Joanne Crawford
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: This issues paper is dedicated to the late Sylvia Chant, who named household-level measurement as a barrier to evidence related to the ‘feminization of poverty.’ Her work underpinned the commitment of the author and International Women‘s Development Agency (IWDA) to change the way that poverty is measured so that its gendered dimensions are visible. As IWDA worked with othersi to create an alternative quantitative measure of poverty, Chant’s focus on the “feminization of responsibility and obligation – women’s increasing liability for dealing with poverty (responsibility), and their progressively less choice other than to do so (obligation)” ii informed the inclusion of voice, unpaid work and time use as dimensions of gendersensitive measurement of multidimensional poverty.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Poverty, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

51. Energy investment in a time of inflation

Author:: Charles Lichfield and Joseph Webster
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: High rates of inflation across the world are forcing central banks to reluctantly tighten monetary policy despite accompanying recession risks. Moreover, restricted credit access could jeopardize energy investments, particularly for capital-intensive clean energy projects, potentially rendering the world more vulnerable energy to price shocks, which are a significant contributor to the current crisis. This paper briefly considers the macroeconomic drivers of inflation in late 2022, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties around energy supply, supply-chain resets, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, before examining the persistent energy underinvestment of the past decade and how this has left markets exposed to varying degrees. As such, this paper also considers how private capital can accelerate cleaner energy adoption, suited to different markets’ unique conditions and needs. Borrowing costs will rise, but this doesn’t have to bring the transition to a standstill. With the Great Moderation of low volatility, interest rates, and inflation perhaps a relic of the past, assets offering inflation protection, such as infrastructure, may become increasingly attractive to investors. There is a fear that global inflation will sharply curtail energy investment into emerging markets. The fear is justified. Higher interest rates in developed markets mean higher rates of return which will lure emerging markets investors back to the US and Europe. Still, it’s not all bad news for emerging markets. Quasi-state actors like Pension and Sovereign Welfare funds are interested in very long term, high-yield projects—two criteria to which emerging market energy infrastructure correspond. Disruptions to interest rates and inflation, triggered in part by energy underinvestment, will cause disparate impacts in different markets. Inflation is not, perhaps, everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon. Energy investment faltered from 2014 to 2020, despite low interest rates. Meanwhile, aggregate supply shocks—first due to COVID, then from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—have pressured energy production and prices, raising inflation and necessitating interest rate hikes. The consequences of persistent energy underinvestment are now becoming apparent. The need for new energy infrastructure cannot be met without private investment. This was the case when inflation was lower; it is even more important now.
Topic:: Environment, Markets, Oil, Governance, Gas, Economy, Investment, Inflation, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

52. The impacts on the change of training architecture for UN Peacekeeping Operations in Brazil

Author:: Edson Ramon Lima Pereira dos Santos and Mariana Pimenta Oliveira Baccarini
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article seeks to analyze how norms and procedures created in International Organizations spread to member states. More specifically, the analysis focuses on how changes in the training architecture for UN peace operations, driven by the Brahimi report, caused institutional and procedural changes on the administrative, political and military spheres in Brazil. Combining official documents and analytical literature, through process tracing, we find that the main causal mechanism observed was emulation, given Brazil’s desire to adapt to use the capacity building as a tool for international action.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Public Policy, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Global Focus

53. Navigating R2P Between Norm and Practice

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The idea that states are responsible for the protection of their own people is a powerful normative and transformative one, but is far from complete or conclusive
Topic:: Security, Governance, Police, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

54. Democratizing International Relations

Author:: Antonio de Aguiar Patriota
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali deserves to be remembered for his defense of the application of democratic principles to the international order. Today, the multipolarity of the contemporary world can help further Botrous-Ghali’s vision
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, United Nations, Democracy, Multilateralism, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55. Political Analysis of the Purchase and technology Transfer Process for Gropen Fighters

Author:: Francisco Porto Junior and Marco Antonio Alves
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to present a descriptive study from a qualitative perspective through a bibliographical analysis, according to Coutinho (2014), which aims to discuss the political process of purchase and Technology Transfer (TT) of GRIPEN NG fighters. For this, we resort to the study of the decision-making process involving interrelationships between the main actors, consensus, interests and values. The goals is to present some reflections about the results of the political game that had taken place during the FHC, Lula and Dilma governments, to verify their relationship with the neoliberal political-social project and its actors in the international sphere. As a guide for this study, questions are presented, which must be answered throughout the text referring to political actors: Who were these actors? How did political actors act? What are the reasons for their actions?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

56. The East Mediterranean Gas Forum: Convergence of Regional and Energy Security Concerns

Author:: Stefy Joseph and Aneeta Thomas Peedikayil
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: As energy insecurity remains an imminent characteristic of energy security, it can simultaneously influence the securitization of non-energy referent objects in other sectors (Adamides and Odysseas 2015). This leads one to examine the geopolitical underpinnings behind the formation of the EMGF which by and large has affected the region as a whole. Egypt, the region’s star player has always played a fundamental role in harbouring relations based on energy and regional security and hence its relations with Greece, Cyprus, Israel, France, Italy and the EU needs examination in the wake of the establishment of the EMGF. The EMGF has been kept as the central pillar in understanding the international political economy behind the energy and regional security convergences by the above-mentioned member states. The objective behind undertaking this study has been to point out the inadequacies in establishing the EMGF which has inevitably shaped the geopolitics of the region.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57. Enhancing the Benefits of Human Mobility through Development Interventions

Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: During each academic year, the Committee sponsors a seminar series on international migration, The Myron Weiner Seminar Series on International Migration, held at MIT's Center for International Studies. The seminars explore factors affecting international population movements and their impact upon sending and receiving countries and relations among them.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Displacement, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58. Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries

Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Robert E.B. Lucas is Professor of Economics at Boston University. His research has focused largely, though not exclusively, on developing countries. Most of the contributions are empirical with a few theory papers, encompassing international and internal migration, employment and human resources, income distribution and inter-generational inequality, international trade and industry, sharecropping, and the environment. His publications include seven books, the most recent of which are Migration and Development: The Role for Development Aid (2019) and Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries (2021).
Topic:: Development, Migration, Governance, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:: Global Focus

59. State Upgrading in Global Value Chains and Production Networks: A Conceptual Note

Author:: Andries Bezuidenhout and Søren Jeppesen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Despite the contribution and influence of the Global Value Chains (GVCs) and Global Production Networks (GPNs) perspectives on our understanding of processes of economic and social development, the understanding of the role of the state within in this framework has some limitations. Based on an assessment of perspectives on the role of the state within GVCs/GPNs, we propose that there is a need to supplement these existing understandings of the state with an analysis of ‘state upgrading’. Recognizing state upgrading as a distinct process, but related to economic and social upgrading, provides an opportunity to analyze in more detail the dynamic exchange between state institutions and GVCs/GPNs. This allows for the development of an enhanced understanding of what the substantive dimensions of the role of the state within GVCs/GPNs consists of. We suggest that such dimensions should include ‘state representational upgrading’ and ‘state institutional upgrading’. We further propose to extent the analysis to what we term the ‘upgrading nexus’ – describing the dynamic interaction between the three types of upgrading in relation to the main actors in GVCs/GPNs (the private sector/industry, the civil society/labor, and the state). With such an approach, we imply an analytical understanding of how economic, social, and state upgrading in GVCs/GPNs are either mutually reinforcing, or potentially mutually undermining. Our aim is to suggest a way of analytically addressing the role of the state within GVCs/GPNs to supplement and refine existing approaches, not to propose to develop an original theory of the state.
Topic:: Economy, Business, Networks, Institutions, Global Value Chains, Production, and State Upgrading
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. Climate Change Mitigation for Late Industrialisers: The Role of Technology Intensity in Manufacturing

Author:: Elvis Korku Avenyo and Fiona Tregenna
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Many developing countries now have a renewed focus on industrialisation and industrial policy. This is based on the recognition that industrialisation is a key driver of long-term economic progress and is the central route to improve the well-being of citizens in developing countries (Chenery, 1955; Tregenna, 2016; United Nations Industrial Development Organization [UNIDO], 2016). At the same time, the climate crisis poses an existential threat to the global economy and to humanity and has emerged as a challenge to the industrial development prospects and pathways of developing countries. This is because industrialisation is an important contributor to global warming, specifically to anthropogenic emissions of cardon dioxide (CO2.) (Adom et al., 2012; Han & Chatterjee, 1997). Late industrialisers thus face a dual challenge: industrialising while mitigating climate change (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017). Hence, there is now a degree of tension as to how late industrialisers can achieve long-term economic development under paths involving heavy or intensive industrialisation, while mitigating emissions and environmental damage more broadly. An emerging discourse recognises the critical need for developing countries to push towards industrial development that, while generating growth in productivity and jobs, is also environmentally sustainable. This is especially important, as poorer countries are particularly vulnerable to the immediate effects of the climate crisis (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017). Thus, transforming towards sustainable production systems and green industrial policies offers developing countries opportunities to industrialise in an environmentally sustainable way while contributing to job creation and economic prosperity (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017; Rodrik, 2014). However, the high ‘green premia’ and new access barriers to the ‘green’ energy technologies from advanced economies directly threaten this potential sustainable industrial development pathway in developing countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Industrialization, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

61. Centralization in National High-Performance Sports Systems: Reasons, Processes, Dimensions, Characteristics, and Open Questions

Author:: Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:: Centralization provides for the bundling of tasks that are relevant to the achievement of an institution's goals. Centralization is discussed in almost all areas of life: For example, in politics (more centralized structures in France vs. more decentralized structures in Germany), in economics (centrally planned organization as in the former COMECON-Countries), decentralized decision-making at the individual level in market economies), and at the corporate level. Objects of centralization can be, for example, decision-making processes, products, personnel and customer groups. In some cases, the aim is to centralize (only) certain objects, while other activities are to remain decentralized, for example. In some cases, centralization in some areas virtually necessitates decentralization in others: For example, centralization by product usually leads to decentralization by sales area. Synergy effects, specialization advantages and, ultimately, cost degression effects are cited as benefits or advantages of more centralization; duplication of work and infrastructure can be avoided. Decision-making processes can be accelerated and simplified – subordinate or geographically distant units do not participate in the decision-making process. Unified concepts and strategies can be better enforced. “Density effects" must also be taken into account: There often are positive spill-over effects between people with related activities, for example, due to imitation and learning effects, but also due to the exchange of experience, which leads to an increase in the productivity of those involved. However, the decentralization tendencies that have emerged as a result of the Corona pandemic, for example through homeworking, partly question this finding. One of the disadvantages of centralization is that large centralized companies have high demands on information and decision-making systems because the experience, problems and ideas for solutions that arise decentrally have to reach the decisionmakers and therefore often (but not always) react more slowly to external changes. Less consideration may be given to regional peculiarities. Due to the standardization usually associated with centralization the scope for adaptation to specific circumstances may be lost. Centralization can increase the distance of decision-makers from "grassroots" concerns. The non-central units can suffer from devaluation, delegitimization, and demotivation, possibly associated with a long-term decrease of activities. The restricted competition of ideas can lead to a long-term decline in competitiveness, since the reduced competencies of the decentralized employees can inhibit their individual performance development. Centralization leads to a greater burden on central decisionmakers because the quantity and complexity of decisions increase. Individuals affected by centralization (in a different location) may experience family relocation problems and additional financial problems. The Corona pandemic and the current China discussion have brought additional arguments into the discussion with contagion risks for (too) many and (too) strong dependencies/blackmail possibilities on centralized procurement. And Ukraine's energy supply, which is based on relatively few large nuclear power plants, illustrates the possible increased susceptibility of certain centralized structures to crises.
Topic:: Sports, Economic Policy, Olympics, and Centralization
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

62. Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains

Author:: Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Over the past three years, global supply chains have experienced problems on an unprecedented scale. Given the rising political tensions and changes in the perception of the role of the economy in international rivalries, a return to international economic relations based on globalisation and trade liberalisation is highly unlikely. Instead, we will witness a necessary strengthening of supply chains, both at the individual business and national levels. For Western economies, the main challenge will be the reduction of related costs.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Economy, Business, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

63. Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.
Topic:: Climate Change, Human Rights, International Law, Courts, and Litigation
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

64. Is the Pursuit of Nukes Driven by Leaders or Systems?

Author:: So Yeon (Ellen) Park
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Nuclear weapons are widely regarded as one of the most lethal aspects of military arsenals ever created. As such, international relations and security experts have long been concerned about their proliferation. To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, both policymakers and academic researchers have focused on what are commonly thought to be the primary drivers of proliferation: security concerns and domestic politics and economies. This brief examines another important driver: the role of national leaders themselves. Based on a study of 1,400 leaders in office between 1945 and 2000, author Ellen Park shows that leader personality and experience drive decisions about whether—or not—to pursue nuclear weapons, a finding that holds true across countries (rather than being limited to a few unique cases). Put simply, the pursuit of nuclear weapons is systematically influenced by certain attributes of leaders, such as college major, socioeconomic background, and military and international experience. To predict when and where the spread of nuclear and other emerging technologies will emerge next, policymakers should promote interdisciplinary dialogue to cultivate leader profiles and expand their use.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

65. Action for Peacekeeping Plus (A4P+): An Update on Monitoring and Implementation after Two Years

Author:: Daniel Forti
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN secretary-general launched Action for Peacekeeping Plus (A4P+) in March 2021, three years after introducing the Action for Peacekeeping (A4P) initiative. A4P+ was conceptualized as a two-year implementation strategy for A4P that prioritizes urgent challenges facing UN peacekeeping. To monitor progress toward achieving these priorities, the UN has developed the A4P+ Plan and the A4P+ Monitoring Framework with specific results, deliverables, and indicators. To date, the UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO) has published two reports assessing the implementation of A4P+ and the impact of these efforts on UN peacekeeping operations. This issue brief takes stock of the monitoring and implementation of A4P+ over the past two years. It begins by explaining the A4P+ priorities and tracing their emergence out of the A4P initiative and Declaration of Shared Commitments. It then discusses highlights from the A4P+ Plan and the two progress reports published as of March 2023 and examines the benefits and limitations of current approaches to monitoring and implementing A4P+. The paper concludes that moving forward, UN officials will need to balance ambitious goals for progress with realistic expectations about what peacekeeping operations can achieve, and when. The UN will also have to decide whether to extend the current set of A4P+ priorities beyond 2023. Ultimately, while A4P+ can help grease the machinery of UN peacekeeping, its long-term impact will depend on member states delivering on their existing political, operational, and financial commitments.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Monitoring
Political Geography:: Global Focus

66. Accountability for Crimes against Peacekeepers

Author:: Agathe Sarfati
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since 1948, more than 1,000 UN personnel have been killed in malicious acts while serving in UN peacekeeping operations. Since 2013, the vast majority of fatalities have taken place in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). To address this trend, the UN Secretariat and member states have increasingly focused on strengthening the policy framework on accountability to peacekeepers. They have also increasingly focused specifically on how to pursue justice for peacekeepers who have been victims of attacks. This paper focuses on advancing justice for crimes against peacekeepers as one aspect of the overall effort to enhance accountability to peacekeepers. It provides an overview of the role of UN peacekeeping operations in investigating and prosecuting crimes against peacekeepers and the UN’s growing focus on advancing and prioritizing accountability for these crimes. It then examines case studies of criminal cases supported by the UN missions in CAR (MINUSCA), Mali (MINUSMA), and the DRC (MONUSCO) in their respective host states and provides an overview of cross-cutting challenges they have faced. The paper concludes with recommendations to help the UN Secretariat, peacekeeping operations, the Security Council, and other member states accelerate the investigation and prosecution of crimes against peacekeepers in a consistent and balanced manner: The UN Secretariat should maintain a comprehensive approach to accountability, develop a common definition of crimes against peacekeepers, ensure that host states adhere to human rights standards when engaging with those accused of crimes against peacekeepers, and improve internal and external coordination in this area. UN missions should pursue a comprehensive approach to accountability, continue to support host-state investigations and prosecutions of those accused of crimes against peacekeepers, advocate for host-state authorities to pursue accountability, and ensure sustained documentation of and follow-up on cases. The Security Council should reinforce peacekeeping mandates to build the host state’s capacity to pursue accountability and encourage legal clarity on the nature of crimes against peacekeepers. UN member states should use the group of friends to offer new ideas on ways to promote accountability and use the Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations to discuss ways to improve coordination in this area.
Topic:: Crime, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

67. Peacekeeping in Nonpermissive Environments: Assessing Troop-Contributing Countries’ Perspectives on Capabilities and Mindsets

Author:: Fiifi Edu-Afful
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Many peacekeepers are deployed in areas where ongoing armed conflicts or other situations of violence, including attacks against peacekeepers, have constrained their capacity to implement their mandate and protect themselves. This has led some troop-contributing countries (TCCs) to raise concerns about the high-risk environments to which their troops are deployed. One of the most critical issues when deploying troops to nonpermissive environments is ensuring they have the right capabilities and mindset. This paper interrogates TCCs’ perspectives on capabilities and mindsets and explores their implications for peacekeeping policy and practice. The goal is not only to deepen understanding of the UN’s progress on implementing the A4P+ priorities but, more importantly, to assess the state of play of peacekeeping in nonpermissive environments, drawing on the diverse perspectives of TCCs. The paper concludes by considering how capabilities and mindsets relate to accountability for and accountability of peacekeepers. Failure to properly train, equip, and support troops being deployed to nonpermissive environments raises questions about whether the UN and TCCs are accountable to peacekeepers. Likewise, it is unclear to what extent peacekeepers should be held accountable for their performance when they have not been provided the proper equipment, training, and mindset.
Topic:: Environment, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

68. Forced Marriage by Non-state Armed Groups: Frequency, Forms, and Impact

Author:: Phoebe Donnelly and Emily Myers
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Many non-state armed groups use forced marriage during armed conflict. This practice has been documented across all geographic regions, in every decade since the 1940s, and across armed groups with many different ideologies. Yet while policymakers, scholars, and practitioners recognize forced marriage as an important form of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), there are no frameworks for conceptualizing the frequency and range of forms of forced marriage that occur in conflict. To fill that gap, this paper introduces an original dataset tracking forced marriage in armed conflict and uses the data and illustrative examples to divide forced marriage in armed conflict into three types: member–member forced marriage, member–civilian forced marriage, and civilian–civilian forced marriage. This dataset can be a tool for policymakers and practitioners to understand the impacts of forced marriage in armed conflict and better design prevention strategies and survivor-centered responses. The report concludes with an overview of existing policy, legal, and programmatic responses to forced marriage in conflict settings, including by non-state armed groups, and provides recommendations for how these responses can better address this complex phenomenon: Data collection: Disaggregate data on CRSV by the form of violence (when possible), avoid linking sexual slavery and forced marriage, and gather more data on the unique needs of survivors of forced marriage. Criminal accountability: Continue prosecuting forced marriage as a distinct crime against humanity and promote the inclusion of forced marriage as a distinct crime against humanity during negotiations on the treaty on crimes against humanity. Sanctions: Continue to include information on CRSV in the reports of sanctions monitoring committees, ensure that sanctions listing criteria are applied against perpetrators of forced marriage, and ensure that every panel of experts includes at least one member with expertise on gender issues or CRSV. Reintegration: Factor the different types of forced marriage into the design of reintegration programs and provide support that considers the unique needs of individuals exiting forced marriage.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Women, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Forced Marriage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

69. Financing Loss and Damage at Scale: Toward a Mosaic Approach

Author:: Michael Franczak
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The historic decision on loss and damage (L&D) at the 2022 UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) calls for a new fund and funding arrangements focused on addressing L&D. It also tasks a Transitional Committee to prepare recommendations on the new fund and funding arrangements for adoption at the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai. This decision reflects a recognition that existing funding arrangements are grossly inadequate to address the escalating scale of L&D. Addressing L&D will require both enhancing these existing arrangements and creating a new fund and funding arrangements, forming a mosaic of solutions across countries, institutions, and markets. This paper aims to aid the Transitional Committee and other stakeholders by providing an initial sketch of that mosaic. First, it examines existing arrangements, modalities, and sources of funding for addressing L&D from UN humanitarian agencies, multilateral development banks and international financial institutions, and insurance and bond markets. Second, it proposes reforms to existing arrangements that would address key finance gaps and bottlenecks. Third, it identifies elements of a new L&D fund that would complement existing arrangements and make use of innovative finance (including levies and bond issuances) to operate at scale. With roughly six months left until COP28, the Transitional Committee will need to work efficiently to achieve its mandate, which includes determining the fund’s institutional arrangements, modalities, structure, governance, sources of funding, and coordination and complementarity with existing funding arrangements. To this end, the paper recommends that it should: Begin securing financing before COP28, particularly innovative financing, which takes longer to secure than traditional donor contributions; Consult with the private sector to determine its role, including in the use of insurance mechanisms and risk pools, frontloading, and connections between L&D and jobs; Determine the form and role of triggers, including for slow-onset events; Consider how to address noneconomic losses, including displacement and forced migration; and Identify the actions, mechanisms, and institutions required to operationalize the fund, including an internal or external coordination mechanism.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, United Nations, and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

70. The UN’s Response to the COVID-19 Infodemic

Author:: Gabriel Delsol and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by a related “infodemic.” This infodemic emerged as widespread demand for information about the public health emergency was met with large volumes of false and misleading information. Many of the national and international institutions leading the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the UN, quickly recognized that they also needed to respond to the infodemic. This led to a quick, broad-based response by a broad array of UN agencies and partners. To date, however, there has been no systematic mapping or assessment of the range of initiatives across the UN system. To begin filling that gap, this paper provides an overview of the UN system’s response to the COVID-19 infodemic across four areas: monitoring harmful information related to COVID-19; dispelling false information and providing authoritative information; building information resilience; and setting the agenda. It then assesses some of the successes and challenges of the response across four areas: external partnerships, including with governments, civil society, academia, and social media companies; coordination within the UN system; financial, human, and technological capacity; and impact assessment. The report concludes that the UN’s infodemic response finds itself at a pivotal point: Due to donor fatigue around COVID-19, funding for the infodemic response is falling even while the need for a robust infrastructure to address infodemics and other information disorders may be increasing. UN entities working to address the infodemic and other information disorders should therefore consider the following: Engaging in a consultative process to develop a shared understanding of the infodemic by defining its specific harms in relation to each of their mandates; Sustaining and building capacity to counter infodemics and other information disorders, both in communications departments and in other sections working on infodemic management; Adopting a more standardized, system-wide approach to the use of new technologies and engagement with technology platforms; and Continuing to strengthen long-term information resilience by building the capacity of governments to manage infodemics and supporting strong, independent media.
Topic:: Health, Science and Technology, United Nations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

71. Enhancing Resilience in a Chaotic World: The Role of Infrastructure

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Global infrastructure is at a crossroads. Sustainability and climate-resilience imperatives, new geopolitical headwinds, technology and connectivity issues, as well as the ongoing reconfiguration of global value chains, all call for a rethink in how infrastructure is designed, built and maintained. Leading world economic powers are envisaging new infrastructure plans that could fit in new trade and industrial strategies, with the ultimate goal to increase sustainability, economic competitiveness and resilience. Meanwhile, the use of digital technologies entails new risks for the security of critical infrastructure. How are global value chains changing, and how does this affect infrastructure? How could more resilient infrastructure transform economies? How to enhance the quality and sustainability of new and existing infrastructure? And how to safeguard security in critical infrastructure?
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Economy, Sustainability, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

72. Section 232 reloaded: the false promise of the transatlantic ‘climate club’ for steel and aluminium

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In using the removal of Section 232 ‘national security’ tariffs on steel and aluminium imports as a bargaining chip, the United States demands that the European Union engage in negotiations on “global steel and aluminium arrangements to restore market-oriented conditions and address carbon intensity”. The US demand has reportedly been inspired by a blueprint that would establish an international institutional arrangement – labelled a ‘climate club’ – which would externalise market-access restrictions afforded by US Section 232 tariffs to the customs borders of club members. While the declared objective is to incentivise non-members to adopt low-carbon steel (and aluminium) production methods the US blueprint suffers from various design flaws including inefficient incentives, WTO inconsistency and incompatibility with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed US scheme is severely compromised by the plethora of policy objectives it pursues, which go far beyond the goal of incentivising industrial decarbonisation in third countries, including secondary (ie protectionism) and tertiary (ie global power competition with China) objectives. The initial negotiation proposal submitted by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to European Commission trade negotiators incorporates many if not all the problematic elements of this blueprint, setting the US on a collision course with the negotiation proposal put forward by the European Commission. This paper concludes that the adoption of the scheme proposed by USTR would result in a step backwards for international climate and trade cooperation, whereas not adopting the EU proposal would make for a missed opportunity. Given the sharply diverging negotiation positions and associated respective domestic constraints on both sides, however, policymakers should start to engage stakeholders now to manage expectations towards a low-ambition negotiation result, if any.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Economy, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

73. A new measure of aggregate trade restrictions: cyclical drivers and macro effects

Author:: Julia Estefania-Flores, Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper presents a new measure of aggregate trade restrictions (MATR) using data from the International Monetary Fund’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but is more comprehensive in terms of country and time coverage. It is available for an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries during 1949-2019. We use MATR to re-examine how trade restrictiveness varies with the business cycle, and how the macroeconomy looks in the aftermath of changes in trade restrictiveness. For the sample as a whole, MATR is typically a-cyclical but this average finding is heterogeneous across income groups: aggregate trade restrictions are a-cyclical in advanced economies but are counter-cyclical in emerging market and developing economies, especially in response to increases in unemployment. As to macroeconomic effects, increases in MATR are robustly associated with declines in GDP and in labour productivity (as well as being adverse for a range of other macroeconomic indicators).
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Economy, Multilateralism, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

74. Employer perspectives on employee work location: collaboration, culture and control

Author:: Diane Mulcahy and Tatiana Andreeva
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This paper discusses employers’ experience of working fully remotely during the pandemic, and their approaches to returning to the office following the pandemic. We chose to focus on the point of view of the employer since it is relatively less explored; much more is available and written on the views and opinions of employees about remote work and return to office. To understand the employer’s perspective, we reviewed existing research evidence, and carried out eleven structured interviews with corporate leaders about their experiences with remote, in-office and hybrid work. Our literature review suggests that remote work does not have negative effects on performance. Similarly, the small sample of employers we interviewed experienced very strong company and employee performance while operating their businesses fully remotely. All employers we interviewed are implementing a hybrid return-to-office policy, although the specifics of the policies are different for each company. No employer was returning to full in-office work. We focused our literature review and interviews on the impact of remote work on employee collaboration, firm culture and manager control, which we call ‘the 3 Cs’. We found that leaders maintain a belief that employee collaboration is negatively impacted by remote work, but the evidence to support this assumption is mixed. Firm culture is often cited by employers as an important rationale for bringing employees back to the office, but the research evidence and our interviewees suggest that the notion of culture is vague and the idea that better culture is supported by in-office work is not supported by any data. Finally, the shift to remote work caused corporate leaders and front-line managers to worry about effectively managing employees they couldn’t see every day. We found that companies did not widely begin implementing employee monitoring systems in lieu of onsite management. Our interviews suggest that much learning remains to transition managers and leaders to effectively managing remote or hybrid employees and teams.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Employment, Innovation, Labor Market, and Remote Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

75. Artificial intelligence adoption in the public sector: a case study

Author:: Laura Nurski
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This case study illustrates the drivers of and barriers to artificial intelligence adoption by organisations, and acceptance of AI by workers in the public sector. Several factors were crucial in the successful adoption of a human-centred approach to AI, including a fast discovery phase that involved workers (or end users) in the development early on, and aligning human resources, information technology and business processes. Subsidy support mechanisms were also specifically targeted and acquired to support the adoption. However, making AI support available to workers proved insufficient to ensure its widespread usage throughout the organisation. The slow adaptation of existing work processes and legacy IT systems was a barrier to the optimal usage of the technology. Moreover, the usefulness of the technology depended on both the task routineness and worker experience, thereby necessitating a rethinking of the work division between technology and workers, and between junior and senior workers. Successful human-centred roll-out of AI in Europe will therefore depend on the availability of, or investments in, complementary intangible organisational capital. Very little is currently known about these investments.
Topic:: Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Public Sector, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Inclusion, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

76. The hidden inequalities of digitalisation in the post-pandemic context

Author:: Cristiano Cadagnone and Maria Savona
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Digitalisation has a ‘hidden’ impact on employment, particularly on the invisible conditions of some jobs, as perceived by workers, that are relatively less explored in the literature and that could represent a substantial social cost, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We start by summarising a few main challenges of digitalisation, with a focus on the additional challenges brought about by the pandemic, the rise of platforms and alternative work arrangements, and the current attempts to regulate these. We then discuss the hidden aspects of inequality linked to the unmeasured side effects of digitalisation. Mental health in particular should be taken into account, particularly in the post-pandemic context, which has led to a significant amount of working from home. Also, the reduction of tasks previously done in the workplace in favour of remote working might limit social interactions, creativity and innovation potential. We conclude by suggesting areas for policy interventions.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economy, Automation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

77. Decentralised finance: good technology, bad finance

Author:: Maria Demertzis and Catarina Martins
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The emergence of cryptocurrencies/crypto assets has allowed the provision of a new form of financial services, including payments and loans, known as decentralised finance (DeFi). Crypto assets currently represent only about 1 percent of total global financial assets and it is unlikely, in its current form, that DeFi will become a substitute for the traditional financial system, for three reasons. First, while decentralisation is very innovative, in practice the technology required to replace the role of intermediary is slow and costly in terms of energy use. This has led some crypto networks to adopt more centralised solutions to the problem of verification. Second, the automaticity behind the transactions does not allow for any legal recourse. If something goes wrong, there is no way to stop or reverse a transaction once it has been initiated. It is very difficult to imagine DeFi scaling up without the ability to challenge outcomes. Third, and perhaps most importantly, DeFi is for the most part self-referential. Crypto assets are exchanged for other crypto assets without being employed in activities that stimulate economic growth by creating jobs or facilitating investment. It is not likely for DeFi to grow enough to replace traditional finance unless it helps growth. Nevertheless, the technology that enables DeFi and crypto assets, distributed ledger technology (DLT), is very innovative and has managed to remove the intermediary without compromising the safety and finality of financial transactions. Hence, it is likely that the technology behind crypto assets and DeFi will feed into the mainstream and offer efficiency gains.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Regulation, Finance, Digitalization, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

78. A model for a participative approach to digital competition regulation

Author:: Christophe Carugati
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Digital competition regulations often put in place participative approaches to ensure competition in digital markets. The participative approach aims to involve regulated firms, stakeholders and regulators in the design of compliance measures. The approach is particularly relevant in complex and fast-evolving digital markets, where whole industries often depend on the behaviours of the regulated firms. The participative approach enables stakeholders and regulated firms to design compliance measures that are optimal for all because they ensure legal certainty for regulated firms, save time for regulators and take into account the views of stakeholders. However, the participative approach is subject to regulatory capture. The regulated firms and stakeholders might try to promote their interests to the regulator. This could result in endless discussions at best, and the adoption of inappropriate solutions following intense lobbying at worst. A governance model is necessary to ensure that the participative approach works without risks of regulatory capture. The model should define clearly each participant's role, duties and rights. There should be: 1) equal and transparent access of all stakeholders to the dialogue; 2) the presentation of tangible and evidence-based solutions from stakeholders and regulated firms; 3) public decisions from the regulator that contain assessments of the proposed solutions, with guidance to clarify rules; and 4) compliance measures proposed by the regulated firm in line with the guidance. The model should provide an assessment framework for the proposed solutions to identify the most effective. The assessment should rely on the principle of proportionality to assess whether the proposed compliance measure is proportionate, to ensure the effectiveness of the regulation. Finally, the model should safeguard against regulatory capture thanks to transparency rules and external monitoring.
Topic:: Regulation, Digital Economy, Innovation, Stakeholders, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

79. Climate versus trade? Reconciling international subsidy rules with industrial decarbonisation

Author:: David Kleimann
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast environmental subsidies that may be required for the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are starting to generate international trade and political frictions between the world’s largest economies. This puts (supra-)national industrial decarbonisation efforts on a collision course with international subsidies rules and national countervailing duty (ie anti-foreign subsidy) laws and regulations. International cooperation will be essential to defuse such tensions before they escalate and impede effective climate policy rollouts, and before they lead to economic countermeasures that create new barriers to trade in environmental goods. This requires agreement on permissible environmental subsidy practices that minimise distortions. Meanwhile, it will be crucial to provide financial transfers to assist poorer economies with industrial decarbonisation at the same time as those poorer economies are suffering from the cross-border negative economic impacts of otherwise net-global-welfare enhancing environmental subsidies paid out by wealthy countries. Various forums can host the technical and political negotiations necessary to set the parameters of net global-welfare enhancing subsidies. These include the G7, the G20, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Trade Organisation’s Trade and Environment Committee and WTO Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions, and the Coalition of Trade Ministers on Climate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Political Economy, Trade, Carbon Emissions, Subsidies, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

80. How best to ensure international digital competition cooperation

Author:: Christophe Carugati
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Large digital firms pose similar competition issues worldwide, such as promoting their own services over those of rivals, or imposing unfair terms and conditions. Competition authorities have opened several antitrust investigations and policymakers have proposed digital competition regulations to tackle these issues. G7 competition authorities have called for several years for international cooperation on digital markets. They want competition cases and laws around the world that are consistent and work together. However, the question of how this can be done remains. A toolbox for international cooperation in competition enforcement already exists, but it does not provide for cooperation in competition policy and has shortcomings in relation to competition enforcement. Current and proposed legislation targets the largest digital firms to tackle the characteristics of digital markets, such as multi-sidedness, and the same or very similar behaviours, such as self-preferencing. Legislation in different jurisdictions addresses these issues with similar rules. While there is some convergence, some rules diverge in substance and some are at high risk of divergence in interpretation. Inconsistency is thus likely to arise from a divergence of interpretation rather than substance. The solution would be to ensure a coherent approach to competition in digital markets. This could be done by developing a framework based on four elements: (1) adoption of common legal phases for future digital competition laws to ensure clarity; (2) adoption of a common legal interpretation through guidance drafted by international forums, such as the International Competition Network (ICN); (3) adoption of common technical requirements developed in the context of ICN technical workshops, when the rules require it; and (4) the implementation of an international monitoring committee within the ICN to evaluate whether competition authorities and courts enforce the rules consistently. The impact of the framework might be limited because of the non-binding nature of the approach, and the focus on specific competition-related legislation, excluding laws that can also address the issues, such as civil law. Countries can overcome these limitations if they are willing to cooperate to ensure a consistent approach.
Topic:: Markets, Digital Economy, Digital Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

81. The Political Economy of Anti‐bribery Enforcement

Author:: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: A level playing field for firm competition is a fundamental requirement for any market to maximize its potential and achieve productive efficiency. When government favors a set of firms or individuals over others, distortions arise that reverberate throughout entire industries, affecting sales, production, innovation, and more. This is not to say that barriers to firms may not sometimes naturally arise, but if a finger is placed on the scale by government to allow certain firms to gain some unerodable advantage, this can have large implications on allocation and overall economic development.
Topic:: Corruption, Political Economy, Law Enforcement, Accountability, and Bribery
Political Geography:: Global Focus

82. Disease Mix and How Economic Freedom Matters for Health Outcomes

Author:: Vincent Geloso, Kelly Hyde, and Ilia Murtazashvili
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: We investigate the institutional foundations of public health. We argue that a key distinction in analysis of disease is between diseases of commerce (diseases associated with movement of people and with affluence) and diseases of poverty (primarily noncommunicable diseases that depend on wealth and income). We show that the mix of disease – the ratio of communicable diseases and those associated with longevity to diseases of poverty – increases in economically free countries. We argue that increasing burdens of diseases of commerce reflects the quality of institutions, as those diseases are better than living shorter, brutish lives where diseases of poverty claim many lives. This analysis also highlights an institutional trade‐off: economically free institutions reduce certain types of disease while contributing to others.
Topic:: Health, Infectious Diseases, Economy, Institutions, and Public Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

83. The Impact of Regulation on Innovation

Author:: Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, and John Van Reenen
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: There is considerable research on the economic impacts of regulations but relatively few studies about their impact on technological innovation. Moreover, most analyses focus on the costs and benefits of regulation at a point in time, rather than on its effects over time. Yet potential effects on economic growth are likely to be much more pronounced in the long run. Many scholars have been concerned that slower growth in countries with heavy labor regulations could be due to firms’ reluctance to innovate given the burden of red tape. For example, the slower growth of Southern European countries and parts of Latin America have often been blamed on onerous labor laws.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Regulation, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

84. The Future of the WTO: Multilateral or Plurilateral?

Author:: James Bacchus
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Since its 1947 inception as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has generally practiced an all‐or‐nothing approach to multilateral negotiations in which the consensus of all WTO members was for trade liberalization. Although this approach worked throughout the second half of the 20th century, its shortcomings were laid bare by the failure of the Doha Development Agenda and the inability of WTO members to achieve further broad, multilateral trade liberalization. Today, amid heightened animosity toward additional trade liberalization, prospects for the traditional consensus‐based approach seem dimmer than ever.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, Multilateralism, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

85. Global Inequality in Well‐Being Has Decreased across Many Dimensions: Introducing the Inequality of Human Progress Index

Author:: Chelsea Follett and Vincent Geloso
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The world has seen dramatic, global human progress across a broad range of indicators in recent decades, but have those gains been widely shared? The Inequality of Human Progress Index (IHPI) measures relative gaps in global development. It surveys international inequality across a greater number of dimensions than any prior index. By analyzing inequality in a multidimensional way, the IHPI takes inequality more seriously than those indexes that focus on income inequality alone. The IHPI considers material well‐being and seven additional metrics: lifespan, infant mortality, adequate nutrition, environmental safety, access to opportunity (as measured by education), access to information (as measured by internet access), and political freedom. Across all but two of those dimensions, the world has become more equal since 1990. Globalization and market liberalization over the past few decades have not only raised absolute living standards but also reduced overall inequality.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Economy, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Global Focus

86. Skilled Immigration, Task Allocation, and the Innovation of Firms

Author:: Anna Maria Mayda, Gianluca Orefice, and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Immigration continues to be a hotly debated topic in several destination countries. Policy and academic discussions have focused on different types of immigration, depending on the host country. While research is voluminous on the United States and countries with skill‐points‐based immigration systems, the discussion in Europe has mostly centered on lesser‐skilled migrants and political refugees, as they represent the largest proportion of arrivals. However, Europe has been receiving skilled migrants in increasing numbers. For example, in France, the share of college‐educated immigrants is 23 percent— lower than in the United States, Canada, or the UK—but it increased by 11 percentage points between 1995 and 2010.
Topic:: Immigration, Economy, Innovation, and Skills
Political Geography:: Global Focus

87. Self‐Service Bans and Gasoline Prices: The Effect of Allowing Consumers to Pump Their Own Gas

Author:: Vitor Melo
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Billions of people live in countries that ban self‐service fueling at gasoline stations, including some of the world’s largest countries by population, including China, India, and Brazil, among many others. The impact of these bans is largely understudied despite their prevalence presumably because this policy is often implemented at the national level and because there have been no policy changes in these countries that allow for an assessment of these bans on gasoline prices.
Topic:: Gas, Regulation, Economy, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

88. Chips, subsidies, security, and great power competition

Author:: John Edwards
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Government subsidies to industry in leading economies are large and growing, with potentially deep, wide-ranging, and unpredictable consequences for the world. It is not clear what rules, if any, will apply in this new era of industry competition, nor whether the measures will be effective in denying frontier technology to rival economies. The impacts of industry subsidies and export controls, including for countries such as Australia, hang on their implementation — beneficial in so far as they speed tech innovation, but detrimental if they split the global economy into competing blocs.
Topic:: Security, Economy, Subsidies, Competition, and Microchips
Political Geography:: Australia and Global Focus

89. Redressing environmental harm? A 'corporate sovereignty' problem

Author:: Stefano Porfido
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: The transition towards a low-carbon economy is an epoch-defining goal. However, this transition develops following traditional patterns of business that are intrinsically environmentally harmful as they rest upon profit-oriented strategies of commodifying natural resources. By taking the anthropological notion of "corporate sovereignty", this contribution discusses the unsustainability of private corporates' property a-like structures of power over natural resources and frames them within forms of economic governmentality. The paper concludes by stressing the need for a cultural change to occur to back the transition towards a novel model of sustainable business, i.e. of "business within the Heart's limits".
Topic:: Environment, Sovereignty, Natural Resources, Carbon Emissions, and Corporations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

90. Emergent Agency in a Time of COVID-19: Research report

Author:: Flippo Artuso, Katrina Barnes, Duncan Green, and Irene Guijt
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic was an unprecedented event in the modern era. Earlier studies demonstrated how ‘critical junctures’, which comprise major historical events and emergencies, often play an essential role in social change. This paper seeks to explore whether the COVID-19 pandemic would prove to be a similar pivotal moment, and what lessons and insights we could gather for positive social change. The research set out to find key insights on how individuals, communities, and organizations in civil society were responding to the pandemic in low-income populations at the intersection of multiple inequalities. These lessons could inform how donors, governments and NGOs might reshape their efforts to reduce emerging or deepening inequalities, and how civil society organisations and community-based organisations could amplify their positive impacts. Over 18 months, from September 2020 to March 2022, the ‘Emergent Agency’ research convened a global conversation between activists, development practitioners, researchers, and academics to better understand the phenomena that were taking place in response to the pandemic. The research collected more than 200 case studies and held a series of webinars and conversations in thematic clusters to uncover what these responses could teach us. The research project was enabled with funding from The Atlantic Fellows for Social and Economic Equity programme (AFSEE) of the London School of Economics.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

91. From Stunt to Substance: An assessment of IMF engagement with civil society

Author:: Nabil Abdo, Nadia Daar, and Alex Ray
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is doling out billions of dollars, influencing economies around the world through its finance, and through the policies it expects governments to implement in return for the funds. But who has a say in those decisions? This paper presents case study research from Pakistan, Tunisia, Egypt, Ecuador, Argentina, Zambia and Ghana to assess the extent and meaningfulness of IMF engagement with civil society. With findings on power, motivations, impact and the importance of civic space considerations, the paper makes the case for significantly improved engagement, and recommends how to do so systematically, meaningfully and safely.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, International Cooperation, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

92. Small States and the War in Ukraine

Author:: Anders Wivel
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The War in Ukraine signals a return to the sphere of influence politics and great powers’ use of military instruments against their weaker neighbors. The consequences for small states are negative. Although some small states will find new opportunities for hedging and brinkmanship, most small states will see their chances of shaping international agendas reduced as they increasingly focus on defensive aims. To meet these challenges small states must work together to promote their shared interests: 1) A modus vivendi between the great power, which minimizes the risk of great power war as well as the annexation and invasion of smaller states, 2) a rule-based international order; 3) a relaunch the United Nations as the central arena for debates on international society among sovereign states.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Superpower
Political Geography:: Global Focus

93. West Vs. Non-West: A New Cold War?

Author:: Greg Simons
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: There is a noticeable and growing evolution of the global geopolitical balance of power and influence in the 21st century’s system of international relations. The current hegemon, the unipolar United States, and the political system of Western liberalism that supports it, is under great strain and is in a state of relative decline. The challenger is a non-Western-centric multipolar order, which consists of a wide variety of countries spanning the globe, including what is referred to as the Global South. This ‘crisis’ of the Western order has prompted a tangible and informational response from the U.S. and its system, to defend their privileged hegemony and to deter the rise of alternative systems of power and influence in international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Cold War, Hegemony, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

94. Military recruitment and conscription in the 21st century

Author:: Sanna Strand
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Military and security scholars have long argued for a trend in military recruitment policy and practice away from conscripted forces based on compulsory service towards professional forces based on voluntary service. Against the backdrop of dramatic societal changes and a new geopolitical order emerging after the end of the Cold War, the republican tradition of forcing young men to serve the nation in arms in exchange for citizenship not only seemed “out of date” (Haltiner 1998); mass armies composed of conscripted soldiers appeared increasingly redundant. Yet, in recent years, several countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltic Sea region have reintroduced compulsory national service systems as a repose to Russian military aggressions. We have also seen an upswing in presumably out-dated republican ideals; with France reintroducing a limited service scheme to improve national integration and cohesion (Gheciu 2020) and Qatar, Kuwait & the UAE all announcing male conscription as a means to foster a collective of productive and patriotic citizens (Barany 2018). These recent developments have led prominent voices to declare a “return” (Braw 2017) or “comeback” (The Economist 2021) of conscription.
Topic:: Politics, Geopolitics, Conscription, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

95. No end in sight to the global sprint towards digital sovereignty in 2023 (and beyond)

Author:: Katarina Vehovar
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Even a cursory glance at headlines in Foreign Affairs – “How AI Makes Dictators More Dangerous”, “The Insidious Cyberthreat” and “The Autocrat in Your iPhone” - suggests that 2022 was not the best year for cyber optimists who profess a belief in technology’s democratising power (González 2022). Digital authoritarian systems and “spin dictatorships” continue relying just as much on information manipulation as coercion to consolidate their power (Guriev 2022). Meanwhile, concerns over the use of sophisticated mercenary surveillance systems and invasive AI technology in democracies are also mounting (Deibert 2022).
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Cyberspace, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Global Focus

96. Facing the next public health emergency: How do we know how (un)prepared we are?

Author:: Christian Haddad and Hugh Schmidt
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: In the realm of political preparedness, numerous benchmarks, metrics, and best practice models have emerged as integral sites in the ongoing debate. Taking the Global Health Security Index as a specific example, this paper delves into the advantages and disadvantages of such global security rankings. This analysis aims to explore the potential uses and drawbacks of employing metrics to evaluate and modify (inter-)national preparedness plans. Situating this discussion within the broader context of the escalating significance of crisis preparedness and management, particularly in the face of acute disruptions to vital infrastructures and the immense costs they entail, as well as their adverse impact on public health and societal safety. However, the findings of this analysis reveal a notable political and strategic risk associated with an excessive reliance on these metrics. It is important to recognize that these metrics not only rely on robust scientific methodologies but also rest upon selective assumptions about the world and the definition of threats. The case of the Global Health Security Index serves as an example, as the assumptions underpinning these metrics have proven inaccurate in the face of an actual pandemic. Consequently, overconfidence and misguided approaches to crisis preparedness have ensued. Additionally, this work offers a concise historical overview of preparedness thinking, outlines the field of Global Health Security, presents the existing metrics employed, and critically reflects on these tools. While metrics provide valuable insights, they should be approached with caution and an awareness of their limitations. By adopting a critical lens and recognizing the political dimensions inherent in these metrics, policymakers can make more informed decisions and develop more effective preparedness plans in an ever-evolving world of crises.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Public Health, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. Green Hydrogen Industrial Value Chains: Geopolitical and Market Implications

Author:: Nicola De Blasio and Laima Eicke
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The global transition to a low-carbon economy and adopting the needed clean energy technologies at scale will significantly impact existing value chains1 and transform production-to-consumption lifecycles. Regulatory and business models will need to rapidly evolve to manage the resulting substantial cost challenges and dramatic shifts in stakeholder interactions while continuing to create value. Green hydrogen2 is likely to play a pivotal role in a carbon-free future, as its adoption will enable the decarbonization of energy-intensive industrial processes whose emissions are hard to abate through simple electrification—such as steel and cement production. However, to take advantage of the economic opportunities created by its adoption at scale, countries will need to rethink the roles they could play in a new energy landscape and define strategic industrial policies accordingly. Our research3 shows how successful industrial policies must reflect a country’s potential value chain positioning in future green hydrogen markets and elucidates macro geopolitical trends that could reshape international relations as countries compete for industrial leadership, market shares, and opportunities for job creation.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Carbon Emissions, Value Chains, Hydrogen, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

98. Modelling Nuclear W Modelling Nuclear Weapon E eapon Effects in W ects in Wargaming Using Monte gaming Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Author:: Tyler Guetzke
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:: The United States Army’s interpretation of nuclear weapon effects needs change and modernization. Wargaming exercises are commonplace in today’s military, however, despite the growing threat of non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW), little has been done to inform battlefield commanders on their true effects. Our research seeks to develop a tool for commanders to easily interpret quantifiable effects of a NSNW. Utilizing Monte Carlo simulation, we are developing a new methodology to analyze NSNW effects. Our model allows a commander to calculate the expected unit strength following a NSNW strike which will aid in their operational decision making ability. The Monte Carlo simulation method for analyzing nuclear effects offers a novel approach to account for variation while giving the commander an analytically interpretable output as descriptive statistics that avoids probabilities.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Command and Control
Political Geography:: Global Focus

99. How non-state armed groups engage in environmental protection

Author:: Jairo Munive and Finn Stepputant
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Non-state Armed Groups have a mixed - and mostly negative - impact on the environment, but there are ways in which NSAG’s engagement can have positive effects on the environment during and after armed conflict. The adoption of the UN principles for the protection of the environment in relation to armed conflict can provide an avenue for constructive engagement.
Topic:: Environment, United Nations, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

100. Governing Outer Space – legal issues mounting at the final frontier

Author:: Hjalte Osborn Frandsen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In 2022, the private space firm SpaceX successfully launched 61 rockets, adding hundreds of satellites to its burgeoning, globe-spanning mega-constellation. SpaceX´s Starlink-project now comprises more than 3,000 satellites. For comparison, the European Space Agency launched six rockets in 2022 and operates less than 50 satellites in total. In the span of a few years, private space companies have dethroned nation states as the dominant actors in outer space. Today the vast majority of satellites are owned and controlled by commercial companies. During the first months of the Russian assault on Ukraine, several commercial space companies stepped in to provide vital satellite images and space-based Internet in support of the Ukrainian defense. This exemplifies the three currently dominant trends of human space activities: expansion, securitization and privatization. The global space industry is undergoing the most fundamental and swift changes since the original space race ended when Neil Armstrong placed the first boot marks on the moon in 1969. The rapid changes raise a number of serious governance issues in areas such as national security, environmental protection and the rule of law in outer space. Denmark, Europe and the international community at large all have an acute interest in insisting on space being a global commons in which conduct can and should be regulated to benefit all of humanity – not just a few profit-seeking billionaire-owned space companies. Developments in the space industry are fast and accelerating. As with other global governance issues, like climate and cyber issues, achieving global accord on new regulations for space activities will be difficult and time-consuming, so prudent policymakers should get started right away.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, Law, and Space
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS