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4721. Populism on the rise. Democracies under challenge?

Author:
Alberto Martinelli
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s Republican presidential nomination and the Brexit have shocked and somehow caught by surprise the entire world. A growing sense of concern or even alarm is now spreading across Western countries and is putting traditional democratic processes to the test. In particular, when looking at the political landscape in Europe, populism may turn out to be an unprecedented game-changer. Populists parties came to power in Poland and Hungary, they are in coalition governments in Switzerland and Finland, top the polls in France and the Netherlands, and their support is at record highs in Sweden. Not to mention the recent rise of Alternative für Deutschland in Germany and the successful story of Syriza, Podemos and of the FSM in Southern Europe. The Report explores the rise of populism in Europe and the US by analyzing its root causes, the rationale behind its success, its impact on traditional political parties and, more broadly, on Western democracies. It also draws some policy recommendations to tackle this widespread challenge.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

4722. The Caliphate’s Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic State’s Foreign Fighter Paper Trail

Author:
Brian Dodwell, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report contains an analysis of over 4,600 unique Islamic State personnel records that were produced by the group primarily between early 2013 and late 2014. The importance of this data for understanding the Islamic State and, in particular, the foreign fighter flow, cannot be overstated. To put it simply, it is the largest cache of primary source documents produced by the Islamic State available in the open-source as of this date. These particular documents were acquired by NBC News from an Islamic State defector and subsequently provided to the CTC (and other entities). This report provides a window into the organization’s global workforce, revealing information about foreign fighters’ countries of origin, citizenship, points of entry into Syria, marital status, skills and previous occupations, education levels, religious knowledge, fighting role preferences in the group, and previous jihadist experience. In addition to analyzing the data at the macro-level, the report also highlights numerous anecdotes of individual fighters. Taken together, the analysis in this report reveals an organization that is attempting to vet new members, manage talent effectively within the organization, and deal with an incredibly diverse pool of recruits.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Recruitment, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Syria, and Southeast Asia

4723. Doku Umarov, Founder of the Caucasus Emirate: From Secularism to Jihadism (Jihadi Bios Project)

Author:
Michael Fredholm
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The CTC is pleased to launch the publication of papers as part of a series devoted to the study of jihadist biographies. The purpose of this project is to contribute to the knowledge of the evolution of the jihadist landscape by exploring it through the lens of the worldviews and experiences of actors who have shaped it. While some states and organizations, wittingly or unwittingly, contributed to the growth of the jihadist enterprise, it may be argued that modern jihadism, as it continues to unfold, is also the product of individuals, who made it into the global phenomenon that it is. As we study the biographies of jihadis, we are faced with a world crowded with different and differing worldviews. Beneath the banner of jihad that seemingly unites jihadis worldwide is a world marked not just by cooperation between groups and individuals, but also by competition and divisions. Some of the jihadis who occupy that world are characterized by a commitment to idealistic goals, by acumen, skills, and agility; others are driven by sectarianism, criminal disposition, and opportunism; while others manifest an odd combination of all. That is why the actions emanating from the jihadist landscape are the results of an amalgam of strategy, sophisticated planning and targeting, randomness, and juvenile enthusiasm. It is for these reasons and more that the complexity of the jihadist landscape requires different layers of analyses and a rigorous and patient approach to the subject. In short, the study of jihadism is about both the “forest” and the “trees;” and this series of biographies is a study of the “trees” as they are situated in the broader “forest.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Secularism, Jihad, and Biography
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

4724. Remotely Piloted Innovation: Terrorism, Drones and Supportive Technology

Author:
Don Rassler
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In early October 2016, the group that calls itself the Islamic State killed two Kurdish soldiers with an explosive device hidden inside a drone. While terrorist groups have long had a fascination with drones and experimented with their use, the incident was a first for a terror group, and it potentially represents the leading edge of a wave of similar incidents that could follow in the months, years and decades ahead. Much has been made of the threat of terror use of drones, but little empirical and historical work has been done to support our understanding of this phenomenon and its evolution. This report seeks to address this gap by providing a review of, and framework to situate, cases in which terrorist entities have either shown a substantive interest in drones or have used them. It evaluates both individual use cases and the activity of groups that have used drones frequently enough to constitute their having a “program.” These cases are then complemented by a review of the creative ways that private citizens have used drones, in order to provide decisionmakers with a firmer baseline of both demonstrated terror capability and what lies within the immediate realm of possibility, given what has already been achieved by others. This report also includes an overview of new technologies that are likely to further complicate the scope of this developing threat.
Topic:
Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Drones, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, and Colombia

4725. Forced population movements as a current ethical dilemma and the possibilities of collective action

Author:
C. Akça Ataç
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The spirit of our times has been increasingly determined by refugee crisis and asylum institutions. If one could read the ongoing economic, political, environmental and demographic crises correctly, a refugee crisis would not have been treated as unexpected, unfortunate singular coincidence. A comprehensive, non-proscriptive approach with a collective, multilevel engagement must urgently be generated by the international community to create an all-encompassing legal consciousness. This paper seeks to delve into the question of the current refugee crisis from an historical point of view and recount the progress of the international refugee regime. In doing that it will also discuss the possibility of the launch of a collective action by the international community in the present. Refugee history is not progressive; it has not linearly proceeded towards comprehensive solutions. There are ruptures, retreats, changes of attitude -from positive to negative, from negative to inaction. Despite the growing global governance with the participation of international and non-governmental organizations, states are still the major actors in the refugee regime. The dominant role of the states in managing the refugee crisis creates an ethical dilemma, as is the case in every normative context state is involved. This paper, therefore, will finally assess the ethical dilemma unveiled by the recent EU-Turkey refugee deal.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Population, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

4726. Regional Financial Integration in East Asia Against the Backdrop of Recent European Experiences

Author:
Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper discusses recent trends in regional financial integration in East Asia and current efforts of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries to foster regional financial integration against the backdrop of three decades of experience with financial integration in Europe. It reviews the two major crisis episodes of the recent European financial history to illustrate the risks associated with comprehensive capital account liberalisation and financial integration without commensurate supervisory structures. The paper highlights the importance of targeted macroprudential policies and the development of an adequate region- wide regulatory and supervisory framework to reduce the risks associated with regional – and hence international – financial integration.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Finance, Financial Stability, and Financial Integrity
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

4727. The Process Behind Turkey’s Proposed Extradition of Fethullah Gülen

Author:
Michael Werz and Max Hoffman
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
It is hard to overstate the gravity of what happened in Turkey during the failed July 15 coup attempt. More than 270 people were killed and thousands wounded in clashes related to the attempted overthrow of the elected government. Tanks and armored vehicles rumbled through the streets of Istanbul and Ankara; soldiers fired into civilian crowds; and rogue F-16 jets and military helicopters bombed and strafed targets in Ankara, including the parliament, the intelligence ministry, and the presidential palace. This litany of atrocities is now familiar to those covering Turkey but should provoke no less soul-searching. There has been a troubling tendency in some Western quarters to respond glibly to Turkey’s trauma, but it is worth considering how the United States government and public would react in the wake of such a crisis. The outpouring of anger and emotion from Turks of all political backgrounds is natural. Without question, those behind the coup attempt must be brought to justice and face trial. As the coup attempt unfolded through the night of July 15, Turkish officials quickly pointed to Fethullah Gülen and his followers—generally referred to collectively as Gülenists or the Hizmet movement—as the driving force behind the overthrow plot. Gülen, an Islamic scholar and U.S. permanent resident, has been living in a compound in rural Pennsylvania since his self-imposed exile from Turkey in 1999, granting few interviews and rarely seeing outside visitors. Gülen’s movement has set up schools in hundreds of countries—including the United States—and established cultural exchange programs, business associations, and media outlets. The exact personal relationship of Gülen to many of these bodies and his degree of direct control over them is not clear. Gülen and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are former political allies, and members of the Gülen movement helped populate the state bureaucracy following the 2002 election victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. For a decade, the AKP and the Gülenists cooperated and, indeed, the movement was an integral part of the burgeoning AKP political, media, academic, and business establishment. The alliance helped both the AKP and the Gülen movement, allowing them to erode the control of traditional military and secular elites in Turkey; there is strong evidence that Gülenists in the police and judiciary collaborated with the AKP government to purge military officers and secular rivals in two massive—and manufactured—cases against supposed coup plotters in 2008 and 2010. But Gülenist prosecutors turned on the AKP in December 2013, opening major corruption cases against senior party leaders and their families. Gülenists are believed to have leaked—or, Erdoğan supporters say, manufactured—tapes implicating Erdoğan and his family in widespread corruption, possibly in a bid to swing upcoming elections. Erdoğan and the AKP decried the corruption cases as a coup attempt and declared open political war with the Gülen movement, seizing businesses and closing media outlets and schools associated with the movement. The Turkish demand for Gülen’s extradition, then, is not new and is part of a long-running political fight. But Turkish officials and the public are absolutely convinced of Gülen’s personal complicity in the coup attempt, and the request for his extradition is a primary element of Turkey’s response to the crisis. Despite the gravity of the wider issues surrounding the coup attempt for Turkish politics and society, this brief is primarily focused on the narrower question of Gülen’s potential extradition, the process by which such extraditions are pursued under the treaty between Turkey and the United States that governs extradition, and the political ramifications for U.S. policy and relations with Turkey.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Coup, Judiciary, and Extradition
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4728. Orbán’s Hungary

Author:
William Danvers
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
The recent U.S. presidential election caught much of the world by surprise and raised a number of questions about how the new administration will govern. Was the rhetoric on the campaign trail a harbinger of things to come, was it a divisive campaign strategy to get elected, or a bit of both? Either way, there is reason for concern and dismay. Taking a closer look at the Trump campaign, there are parallels to the right-wing national populist political movements in Europe. The recent transformation of Hungarian politics—in particular, the metamorphosis of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, leader of the ruling Fidesz Party—offers a cautionary tale of what can happen when a right-wing national populist leader gets elected. Unfortunately, Orbán, who has been invited to Washington by President-elect Donald Trump,1 is only one part of a larger right-wing national populist phenomenon that has taken root in Europe. For example, he is an inspiration for Jarosław Kacszyński, head of the Polish Law and Justice Party, or PiS, which now controls Poland’s government.2 The PiS, taking a page out of Orbán’s playbook, has been trying to consolidate its power by doing such things as attacking Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal, its highest court.3 The idea behind this and related moves in Hungary and Poland is to ensure that once the party is in power, it will remain there by rigging the system to make sure its leaders can get specific programs enacted and create a more favorable electoral climate.
Topic:
Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Leadership, Populism, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

4729. Advancing Climate-Compatible Infrastructure Through the G-20

Author:
Gwynne Taraska, Peter Ogden, Nancy Alexander, and Howard Marano
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
To date, 17 G-20 countries—which account for 67 percent of global greenhouse gas pollution—have officially joined the Paris Agreement, bringing the pact into effect sooner than anyone expected.1 If they follow through with their commitments to reduce emissions, it will represent unprecedented progress in the global effort to curb climate change. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, meanwhile, has suggested a number of actions, including dismantling the Clean Power Plan and pledging to “cancel” the Paris Agreement, that would drive the United States—and potentially other countries—in the opposite direction.2 In light of this, the G-20 summit in July 2017 provides an important opportunity for committed major powers to resist backsliding by any and all G-20 countries—and even to make some progress in meeting the climate challenge. To its credit, the German government, which officially assumed the G-20 presidency in December 2016, has taken steps that position the summit well for just such an effort. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her three “pillar” objectives for the summit, she explicitly identified climate change as a priority. These pillars include fostering global economic stability; making the global economy viable for the future, including through the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; and establishing the G-20 as a “community of responsibility,” including by promoting a compact with Africa that would address infrastructure investment, among other topics.3
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, G20, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

4730. Moscow on the Potomac

Author:
CAP National Security and International Policy
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
On October 16, 2016, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson issued an extraordinary statement, indicating that the “U.S. Intelligence Community is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from U.S. persons and institutions, including from U.S. political organizations.”1 The release of this hacked information was all directed at the Democratic presidential campaign and its affiliates, with no hacked information leaked regarding the campaign of the Republican presidential nominee, and now president-elect, Donald Trump. These senior U.S. intelligence officials pointed out that Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, had used similar tactics across Europe and Eurasia to bolster right-wing nationalist parties and that “[t]hese thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process.” Director Michael Rogers, head of the National Security Agency, noted, “There shouldn’t be any doubt in anybody’s minds, this was not something that was done casually, this was not something that was done by chance, this was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily. This was a conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect.”2
Topic:
Security, Corruption, National Security, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America