Political Geography: China / Journal:

2301. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018. First, investment growth has shown negative growth recently. Judging from the notional fixed-asset investment, the year-on-year growth in the first 11 months of 2017 was 7.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than in the same period of 2016. Due to the significant increase in producer price index (PPI) growth in 2017, the drop in real investment growth in 2017 is quite worrying. The real investment growth rate in the first three quarters of 2017 dropped to 2.2 percent year-on-year, while in the same period of 2016, this figure was 9.5 percent year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the real investment rate in the third quarter of 2017 fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year, the first time that negative growth has been recorded in more than a decade.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2302. Country-Risk Rating of Overseas Investment from China (2018)

Author:: CROIC-IWEP
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: China's outbound direct investment hit a new high in 2016, reaching $196.15 billion, making the country the world's second-largest overseas investor. The volume of its outbound direct investment increased by 34.7% year-on-year in 2016 and accounted for 13.5% of the world's total — the first time it exceeded 10%. Since 2003, when the Ministry of Commerce joined hands with the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to start releasing authoritative investment data annually, China's outbound direct investment has kept increasing for 14 consecutive years. From 2002 to 2016, the annual average growth of its outbound direct investment reached 35.8%. In 2016, China's outbound direct investment once again exceeded the foreign direct investment it received, making it a net capital exporter for two consecutive years. Meanwhile, its outbound direct investment stock hit $1.35739 trillion at the end of 2016, the 6th largest in the world, two notches up compared with in 2015. In 2016, China had the most overseas M&A deals in history in terms of both number and value of M&A deals. In the future, China is expected to bring out more of its investment potentials and build a win-win cooperative relationship with other countries following its economic transition and upgrading, rising competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in overseas markets and steady advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2303. A United Nations with Chinese characteristics?

Author:: Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Frans-Paul van der Putten, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: As China’s role as a major power in international affairs is growing, the Chinese government is becoming more active and more inﬂuential in the United Nations (UN). This is likely to have – or, in the eyes of some, already has – a significant impact on the UN’s (future) functioning. Growing Chinese inﬂuence is important for all UN members, and particularly so for Western countries, including the Netherlands, which strives to maintain and strengthen the international legal order as a principal foreign policy aim. This report by Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Frans-Paul van der Putten, with contributions from Etienne Béchard, Louise van Schaik and Vishwesh Sundar, aims to provide a better understanding of the process currently underway. It does so, first, by analysing how and in which direction China’s involvement in the UN is evolving. Next, the discussion turns to the question of how China’s growing involvement is relevant to the setting and the developing of norms and standards within the UN. Finally, the authors explore where European countries and China have common interests, and where their interests are conﬂicting through presenting three case studies in three thematic areas, namely human rights, development finance and climate change.
Topic:: Diplomacy, United Nations, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Netherlands

2304. Domestic Constraints on South Korean Foreign Policy

Author:: Scott A. Snyder, Geun Lee, You Young Kim, and Jiyoon Kim
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Despite becoming influential on the world scene, South Korea remains a relatively weak country surrounded by larger, more powerful neigh- bors. This contrast between its global rank as a top-twenty economy and its regional status as the weakest country in Northeast Asia (with the exception of North Korea) poses a paradox for South Korean for- eign policy strategists. Despite successes addressing nontraditional security challenges in areas such as international development, global health, and UN peacekeeping, South Korea is limited in its capacity to act on regional security threats. South Korea has historically been a victim of geopolitical rivalries among contenders for regional hegemony in East Asia. But the coun- try’s rise in influence provides a glimmer of hope that it can break from its historical role by using its expanded capabilities as leverage to shape its strategic environment. The pressing dilemma for South Korean strategic thinkers is how to do so. As the regional security environment becomes more tense, South Korea’s strategic options are characterized by constraint, given potentially conflicting great-power rivalries and Pyongyang’s efforts to pursue asymmetric nuclear or cyber capabilities at Seoul’s expense. South Korea’s relative weakness puts a premium on its ability to achieve the internal political unity necessary to maximize its influence in foreign policy. Students of Korean history will recall that domestic factionalism among political elites was a chronic factor that hamstrung Korea’s dynastic leadership and contributed to its weakness in dealing with outside forces.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

2305. Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:: Council on Foreign Relations
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Emerging challenges to international order require cooperation between the United States and China, two countries that share a common interest in preventing the world from becoming more dangerous and disorderly. U.S.-China relations are becoming more strained and antagonistic, however, and the prospects for cooperation appear to be receding. To explore whether there are still grounds for cooperation on issues of common concern between the two countries, in March 2018 the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations convened a group of fifteen experts from the United States and China for the workshop “Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-China Cooperation.” CPA partnered with Peking University’s School of International Studies in Beijing for the workshop and also met with experts at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing and the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies in Shanghai. During the workshop, President Donald J. Trump announced plans to impose about $60 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports. While trade was a major topic of discussion, it was by no means the only area discussed. Workshop participants assessed conflicting views of the sources of global disorder and examined areas of global governance such as international trade, development, the environment, and the future of various multilateral institutions. They also discussed the most pressing security challenges in East and Southwest Asia. Participants highlighted the need for a greater understanding between the United States and China on the evolving international order. No major transnational problems will be solved without some cooperation between the two powers. It is therefore imperative that the two countries avoid a further deterioration of the relationship and instead identify areas of potential cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, and Social Order
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and North America

2306. The U.S.-Southeast Asia Relationship: Responding to China’s Rise

Author:: Council on Foreign Relations
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Although the Barack Obama administration rhetorically made Southeast Asia a centerpiece of its “rebalance to Asia” strategy, the administration still largely focused on the Middle East and Europe, and Southeast Asia remained a low U.S. policy priority. The Obama administration did try to boost U.S. economic ties with Southeast Asia in 2016 by forging the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but that trade deal was broadly unpopular in the United States. The following year, the Donald J. Trump administration ended U.S. participation in the TPP, and it also suggested launching punitive economic measures against Southeast Asian states currently running trade surpluses with the United States. Many Southeast Asian leaders now worry that Washington has no clear security or economic strategy for the region, other than applying pressure on Beijing to respect freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. In this perceived void of U.S. leadership and strategy, workshop participants assessed how Southeast Asia might change as China becomes an increasingly dominant regional security and economic actor. They also discussed the future of U.S. strategic and economic relationships with important partners in the region, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Participants further considered how China might use its growing leverage in Southeast Asia, and whether Beijing’s tactics could backfire. Finally, several workshop participants posited that the United States, China, and Southeast Asian states could cooperate on at least some nontraditional security issues, such as combating piracy and terrorism.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

2307. "Growing Pains in the Chinese Social Security System"-The 8th Annual N.T. Wang Distinguished Lecture

Author:: Hanming Fang and Yi Zhang
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Video from the February 20, 2018 N.T. Wang Distinguished Lecture "Growing Pains in the Chinese Social Security System," presented by Hanming Fang, Class of 1965 Term Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Moderated by Shang-Jin Wei, the N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy at Columbia Business School. Introduced by Xiaobo Lu, Professor of Political Science, Barnard College. Co-sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute of Columbia University and the Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business at Columbia Business School.
Topic:: Governance, Domestic Politics, and Social Security
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2308. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the Context of the Chinese Grand Strategy

Author:: Tommaso Rossotti
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Being the most populous country and the second biggest economy in the world, the People’s Republic of China is under every aspect one of the most important players in today’s international system. As every great power, China acts rationally in its foreign relations, and, doing so, it follows what has been labelled as a “Grand Strategy”. The aim of this paper is to analyse Chinese Grand Strategy in a practical perspective; in particular, it will be discussed how the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) fits in Beijing foreign policy and in its Grand Strategy. The paper moves from a working definition of Grand Strategy, to suddenly analyse how and if the different aims and goals of the SCO are aligned with China’s interests and long-term objectives.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2309. Transforming the Rice Value Chain: A Whole-of-Society Approach?

Author:: Jose Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The International Rice Congress (IRC) 2018 held in Singapore, 15-17 October 2018, provided new insights and refreshing ideas on how the rice value chain has been transforming. It also underscored the need for a Whole-of-Society approach to secure enough rice for all in 2050.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food Security, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: China, India, Philippines, and Singapore

2310. Social Media Celebrities and Neoliberal Body Politics in China

Author:: Anett Dippner
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:: Since 2015, a new category of media stars came to public awareness and sparked a controversial discussion in China: Internet Celebrities (Wanghong). “Wanghongs” build their fame and fandom mostly on their eyecatching and hyperfeminine appearance which they are presenting extensively on Social Media platforms to gain public attention and acquire followers and fans. The stereotypical so-called “Internet Celebrity face” (Wanghong lian) became the most discussed buzz word of the year 2016 and led to a society-wide discussion about new beauty ideals and the growing popularity of cosmetic surgery, the objectification and commercialization of the body, as well as the increasing importance of an appropriate appearance for the individual’s social and economic success since the 2000s. For tracing these questions, the article analyses the development and characteristics of this new group of celebrities and locates them in the booming “Beauty Economy”. By literally selling their beautiful face, Wanghongs convert symbolic capital through e-commerce and online advertising into real economic advantages. The utilitarization of “body capital” heats up the public discourse about yanzhi (value of a pretty face) in China’s status-conscious society. With an analysis of the so called “Internet Celebrities” phenomenon this paper looks behind the sparkling Social Media façade and reveals the social and economic conditions that led to this new ideology of beauty as capital in China.
Topic:: Mass Media, Internet, Social Media, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2311. The Chinese People’s Republic Investment Engagement in Belarus and Ukraine after 2010

Author:: Patrycja Rutkowska and Adam Adamczyk
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to present and compare China’s economic, political and military involvement in Ukraine and Belarus, with particular emphasis on their role in the global expansion of the PRC. China after the opening of the economy to the world in the early 1980s, immediately became one of the most important elements of the global economy. The article will attempt an analysis of Chinese investments on the Dnieper, but also the political and military aspects of this cooperation.
Topic:: Politics, Economy, Investment, and Army
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Asia, and Belarus

2312. Toward gender equity and women’s empowerment

Author:: Jean-Philippe Platteau
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: There are three main channels of women’s empowerment: legal or policy reforms, outside economic opportunities, and collective action. Legal (or policy) reforms are generally based on statutory laws that enact rules to be followed or prohibit certain practices. External economic opportunities for women represent alternative activities and places of working and living. Collective action brings women together to advance their collective interests.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Discrimination, Equality, and Empowerment
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Africa, China, Europe, Turkey, India, Asia, and Senegal

2313. Inequality dynamics in China: Income growth for the poor, but more for the rich

Author:: Shi Li and Terry Sicular
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In the late 1970s, China embarked on a major programme of economic transition and reform. Since then, China’s economy has been transformed from a socialist planned economy to a predominately market economy characterized by a combination of state, private, and mixed forms of ownership. Over the past forty years, household incomes have risen six-fold, poverty has declined dramatically, and in recent years a new class of ultra-rich has emerged. These developments have naturally led to questions about inequality trends in China.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Reform, Income Inequality, and Welfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2314. The Challenge of the South China Sea: Congressional Engagement and the U.S. Policy Response

Author:: James M. Scott
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Maritime territorial disputes in Asia are increasingly contentious, with competing claims and confrontations among numerous states of the region carrying significant implications for the relations among the countries of the region, between the U.S. and the region, and for the broader US-China relationship. This analysis examines the politics of the U.S. approach to the challenge, focusing on the role of Congress as a factor shaping the U.S. response. After establishing an analytical framework that directs attention to legislative-executive interactions and the domestic political/institutional context, it assesses the consequences of this context for U.S. policies and approaches to the problem. The analysis reveals the sequence and dynamics of congressional engagement, by which members moved from indirect and non-legislative approaches to direct and legislative approaches to narrow the boundaries and the shape the direction of US foreign policy. It concludes by addressing the implications for the U.S. approach and the relationships among the key parties.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Maritime
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and South China Sea

2315. Chinese Concepts and Relational International Politics FacebookLinkedInTwitterMendeleyEmail

Author:: Emilian Kavalski
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The rise of China troubles the taken-for-granted epistemological and ontological constitution of International Relations (IR) theory. The Greek term ‘theoria’ implied travelling to foreign locales with the aim of gaining illumination that can then simultaneously inform and transform the ‘home’ of the traveler. Yet, instead of travelling, IR theory engages in silencing. This paper undertakes an interpretative journey of China’s IR concepts. In particular, it looks at the notion of guanxi – one of the two terms that goes into the Chinese phrase for International Relations (guoji guanxi). The contention is that ‘relationality’ renders a more accurate translation of guanxi in English. In the process, the paper uncovers the practices of ‘international relationality’ as an opportunity to redefine the ‘international’ as a co-dependent space where two or more actors (despite their divergences) can interface into a dialogical community.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Academia
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2316. Russia-India relations: Long-term obstacles remain despite sectoral achievements

Author:: Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Despite concrete achievements in energy and military-technical cooperation, long-term trends, such as Russia’s growing dependence on China, India’s tilt towards the US, and tense Sino-Indian relations are not conducive to closer strategic cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, India, and Asia

2317. Europe’s connectivity strategy and the challenge of China: Rivalry, reciprocity, or both?

Author:: Bart Gaens
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The EU’s new strategy for connecting Europe and Asia, implicitly a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is an important first step in promoting European priorities in terms of connectivity. However, uncertainties, including those surrounding the financial implications, remain.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

2318. The Sino-Russian and US-Russian relationships: Current developments and future trends

Author:: Marcin Kaczmarski, Mark Katz, and Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The great-power system has been in constant change since the end of the Cold War. The US became the hegemonic power, and under its shelter, the European Union was able to transform into a European-wide political body. Soon, a group of leading regional powers started to question the universalist aspirations of the Western-led international order. Two members of this club in particular were not satisfied with the role of a regional hegemon and had more global ambitions. China has already become the largest trading nation globally, and Chinese foreign policy has assumed an assertive tone. China has both the potential to challenge US hegemony, as well as the political will to use it. Russia’s project to achieve a global great-power status, on the other hand, is inspired by its historical identity and its alleged humiliation by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia longs for recognition of its great-power status in particular from the US. This report focuses on relations between China and Russia on the one hand and the US and Russia on the other. It analyses the current developments and future trends in these relationships, as well as their implications for the EU.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America

2319. Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy: What does it mean for the European Union?

Author:: Nanae Baldauff
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Not so long ago Japan seemed to be left out on the diplomatic stage, notably when it decided not to join China’s newly established Asian Investment and Infrastructure Bank (AIIB) in 2015. But while no one can deny China’s impressive global outreach under the banner of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Japan has not been sitting idly by. Quite the contrary, Japan is playing a leading role in shaping the concept of free and open Indo-Pacific region, and has positioned itself as an important political actor that upholds the rule of law under its Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP). As China becomes more and more assertive economically and militarily, strengthening ties with Japan becomes all the more important for the European Union (EU). As a strategic partner of Japan, the EU more than ever needs to work with Japan in upholding the liberal international order.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Investment
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

2320. The EU and China: Modest Signs of Convergence?

Author:: Gustaaf Geeraets
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Against a background in which the United States is increasingly drawing into question its commitments to free trade and the global commons, the challenge for the EU and China is to deal with a global governance system that is evolving from a multilateral system centred around the US into a more diffuse system resting on the three strong trading poles: China, the EU and the US.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Governance, European Union, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America

2321. Sending in the Cavalry: The Growing Militarization of Counterterrorism in Southeast Asia

Author:: See Seng Tan
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: Philippines, which lasted from May to October 2017, constitutes a watershed moment in the evolution of the terrorist threat in Southeast Asia. Pro–Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants threatened to turn Marawi into “the Mosul of Southeast Asia,” with their astounding ability to operate large groups capable of controlling territory and exposing the inadequacy of the region’s security services. Although member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had pondered the question of possible participation by their armed forces in counterterrorism well before the Battle, it is undeniable that Marawi has become the catalyst behind the regional drive to militarize counterterrorism efforts in Southeast Asia. Cooperative frameworks furnished by ASEAN have since taken on added significance, especially the defense-oriented arrangements that bring together the defense establishments and armed forces of the ASEAN countries as well as those of external powers including China, India, Japan, and the United States. The growing militarization of counterterrorism efforts will neither be easy nor straightforward, given longstanding regional sensitivities and the potentially diversive ramifications that excessive securitization could have for democratic life within ASEAN countries.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, Philippines, North America, United States of America, and ASEAN

2322. War’s Future: The Risks and Rewards of Grey-Zone Conflict and Hybrid Warfare

Author:: David Carment
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Today’s geopolitical conflicts, especially among great powers, involve a desire to fundamentally revise the order of alliances as well as solidify new norms of conduct. The purpose of our paper is to delineate two distinct phenomena in international affairs – hybrid warfare, which emphasizes the tactical level and grey-zone conflicts, which incorporates a long-term strategic dimension into international disputes. We argue that hybrid warfare can be a tactical subset of grey-zone conflict deployed under certain conditions and in varying degrees. We examine four case studies: China’s application of ‘unrestricted warfare’, Russia’s strategy of ‘hybrid balancing’, ‘regional hybridism’ practiced by Israel and ‘restricted hybridism’ applied by Canada/NATO globally. We conclude that the solution to challenges from Russia and China is not a military one but a political and collective one based on baseline requirements for building resilience. Israel, on the other hand, is largely uninterested in the revision of order of alliances and will continue to utilize its tactical advantage vis-à-vis regional neighbors to achieve victories in short conflicts. We conclude that NATO (and Canada) should work more closely with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the European Union to effectively extend security guarantees to its members. In doing so Canada and likeminded countries will involve the costs of engaging in hybrid warfare and the subsequent erosion of democratic accountability.
Topic:: NATO, War, Geopolitics, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Canada, Israel, and Asia

2323. The Security Dimension of a China Free Trade Agreement: Balancing Benefits and Risk

Author:: Gordon Houlden
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: In 2017, Canada engaged in several rounds of exploratory discussions for a potential free trade agreement (FTA) with the People’s Republic of China. It seemed probable that this exploratory phase would be followed by the opening of formal rounds of negotiations, to be announced during Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit to China in December 2017. An FTA appeared to be a priority for Trudeau since his government came into office in 2015 (Global Affairs Canada, 2017a; Lu, 2017; PMO, 2017); however, such negotiations were put on hold indefinitely, ostensibly due to irreconcilable differences on gender and labour issues. Despite this setback, it is likely that the Canadian government will continue to explore this option in the coming years, particularly with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in jeopardy. While there are many potential benefits of a Canada-China free trade agreement (CCFTA), there are also significant national security implications that will deserve particular attention. The security dimension will be the focus of this paper. Prospective CCFTA negotiations with China would be both complex and time consuming, in part due to the wide divergences between the Canadian and Chinese economies, as well as differences between Canadian and Chinese administrative and legal systems. Negotiations could therefore take several years to conclude, and might not be finished until well after the 2019 federal election. It took a full decade to sign and ratify the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), although it appears that the most difficult portion of the negotiations was wrapped up in the final two years. It is unlikely that a CCFTA will move as slowly as the Australian FTA did, in part because of the established Australian precedent and because of China’s increasing familiarity with FTA negotiations that involve advanced economies. For this reason, Canada would benefit from approaching a CCFTA after Australia, but before many other Western countries. Chinese and Canadian negotiators will be consumed with elaborating the principles of each side’s responsive FTA approaches, as well as the myriad of details involving thousands of products and services that a CCFTA’s provisions would affect. Canadian negotiators will seek a high-quality FTA that covers a large percentage of our export and import products with China, as well as an agreement that covers all key sectors and industries. There is also likely to be a Canadian focus on addressing China’s use of non-tariff barriers to trade which currently inhibit Canadian firms from taking full advantage of the massive China market. Such measures include the Chinese Ministry of Health’s 2013 changes to food safety standards which required all imported food products to list detailed nutritional components in Chinese. Procedural barriers such as this represent a significant hurdle for Canadian firms, and cause uncertainty among international exporters that want to break into the Chinese domestic market. In theory, the centralized Chinese economy lacks the regional complexity of the Canadian federal state, characterized by sub-national units, but in reality, China’s provinces and municipalities can, and often do, impose barriers to foreign imports, often to protect market share for local substantive industries. To date, China has FTAs with only a handful of developed countries. Australia, Korea, Switzerland, Iceland, Singapore and New Zealand currently have bilateral FTAs with China, and several others, such as Norway and Israel, are in FTA negotiations. China is also floating ideas for FTAs with developing countries, including India. China is far more trade-dependent than the United States, although by comparison China is not nearly as trade-dependent as Canada is.1 The balance of trade is currently in China’s favour: China exports US$46 billion to Canada, versus the US$16 billion that it imports from Canada (MIT, 2016a). However, it is important to note that China’s exports to Canada account for only 2.2 per cent of China’s total merchandise exports (MIT, 2016b).
Topic:: Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, and United States of America

2324. The Dragon and Great Power Rivalry at the Top of the World: China’s Hawkish, Revisionist Voices Within Mainstream Discourse on Arctic Affairs

Author:: David Curtis Wright
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: This paper discusses China’s Arctic policy white paper, covers China’s appreciation of the region’s strategic value, and samples scholarly articles across the wide spectrum of opinion and policy recommendation regarding China’s participation in Arctic affairs. It describes the articles, offers translated segments from them, and refers readers who want to read more about the articles and more extensive translated passages from them to the Appendix, where they are included in fuller form. This paper’s main contention and conclusion is that the military and strategic dimensions of China’s interests in the Arctic are part and parcel of mainstream Chinese discourse on the Arctic today. One important motivation behind China’s burgeoning interest and engagement in Arctic affairs is the eventual utilisation of the region as strategic space from which to threaten the security of North America. China’s activities in the Arctic bear close, careful, and continuous scrutiny. It is imperative that Canada not succumb to the siren song of complacency and inaction regarding China’s ambitions in the Arctic region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and Arctic

2325. Finding "Win-Win": China's Arctic Policy and What It Means for Canada

Author:: Adam Lajeunesse
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: China is a “Near Arctic State” with national interests in Arctic resources, shipping lanes, and regional governance. That was the message delivered to the world in China’s new Arctic policy (China 2018). The philosophy espoused in the Chinese White Paper is one of cooperation and mutual profit – what the Chinese have dubbed “win-win” polar partnerships. These partnerships have been expanding in recent years. Tens of billions of dollars in Chinese capital has flowed into oil and gas projects in Siberia and the Russian Arctic offshore, new shipping routes are being tested, and state-owned mining companies have acquired rich mineral deposits in Greenland and – to a lesser extent – Canada. These resources, and the sea lanes that connect them, have been labelled the “Polar Silk Road,” a maritime trade and shipping route supported by Chinese infrastructure spending (theoretically) running through the Northwest Passage and other circumpolar channels. China’s increasingly confident posture in the North represents real opportunities – and challenges – for Canada. Managed properly, Chinese money can support the decades old Canadian dream of developing the Northwest Passage as a useable sea route, decreasing shipping costs, supporting development and improving the quality of life for Arctic residents. Managed incorrectly, Chinese activity might leave the Asian power with a degree of de facto control over the Arctic, damaging Canadian sovereignty and imperiling the country’s ability to manage this increasingly important region on Canadian terms. This new White Paper is as clear a signal as can be sent that China is coming into the Arctic with long-term strategic ambitions. Canada should not fear this development, but it must be prepared for it.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, and Arctic

2326. Energy, Trade and Geopolitics In Asia: The Implications for Canada

Author:: Jeff Kucharski
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada’s growing interest in trade with countries in the Indo-Pacific region corresponds with an ominous growth in geopolitical instability and insecurity in that part of the globe. With Indo-Pacific hunger for oil expected to soar – especially in China, where demand will translate to 80 per cent of imports in 10 years – Canada needs to develop policies to deal with the region’s turbulent realities. The Indo-Pacific comprises countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia, and includes such unstable and unpredictable players as North Korea and Pakistan, both of which have nuclear weapons and long-simmering border tensions. India is an emerging economic and military rival to China. In the next 20 years, China and India are expected to lead the global demand for gas as coal consumption continues to decline, and Canada has a stake in this prosperous future. Along with territorial squabbles in the region, Canada will have to deal with complex issues such as terrorism, human trafficking, transnational crime, piracy and cyber-crime, as well as the struggle for global dominance between China and the U.S. One key area for potential conflict is China’s recent construction and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea. The Canadian government’s new military strategy, Strong, Secure, Engaged does little more than make a plea for peace and the rule of law in the South China Sea. However, more trade crosses the Pacific Ocean from Canada than crosses the Atlantic. And with Canada signing on to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the region’s troubles will need to be resolved by more than good intentions on paper. Canada must shift more diplomatic, security and military resources to the Indo- Pacific; otherwise, its efforts will be spread too thinly to be effective in the region. Trade, especially through a major route like the Strait of Malacca, could easily be disrupted by any one of a number of disputes, such as a conflict between China and Taiwan or if historic resentments boil over among competing territorial claimants in the region. Thus, Canada needs to step up and reaffirm its security commitments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a partner in the region. Participating in maritime exercises and Freedom of Navigation (FON) operations would also help to reinforce to countries in the region the importance of abiding by international law. Meanwhile, Canada should set aside for now any intentions to negotiate a free trade agreement with China. China does not share some of Canada’s key trade and security goals and its aggressive behaviour in the South and East China Seas clearly signal that now is not the time to talk about a trade pact. China must demonstrate that it is willing to take a more cooperative approach to resolving trade and security issues in the Indo-Pacific and to support and respect the rule of law in the region. Canada has the potential to become a reliable, stable source of energy for Indo-Pacific countries. There is also an opportunity for provinces such as Alberta to strike their own strategic deals to provide energy resources to countries in that region, in return for trade and investment benefits. However, while investing at home in the necessary infrastructure and export capability to expand its role, Canada must also strive to bring its own unique approach to enhancing regional and energy security in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, and North America

2327. Canada’s Progressive Trade Agenda and a Free Trade Agreement with China: Are They Incompatible?

Author:: Hugh Stephens
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The “non-market” clause in the just-concluded update of NAFTA, now known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) would appear to limit Canada’s options in terms of negotiating a free trade agreement with China at the present time (given the de facto U.S. veto over a Canada-China agreement that it provides), yet Prime Minister Trudeau has already reaffirmed Canada’s intention to pursue closer economic ties with China despite this apparent limitation. If negotiations proceed, negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) with China will be very different from negotiating one with a country that shares Canada’s Western values. However, a trade agreement with China makes good economic sense, and while there are some unique obstacles to reaching such an agreement owing to differing views of progressive trade, these are not insurmountable. In fact, Canada can use the same models in negotiating with China that it has used with Western countries. Such an approach combines trade goals with respecting Chinese cultural and political differences, particularly those that fall into the category of progressivism. This category includes labour rights, Indigenous and gender issues, and governance. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has been focused on progressive elements in trade deals, while China has made it clear it is not interested in including them in any such pact. Concluding an agreement would mean that China and Canada must both recognize the political requirements and dynamics on the opposite side of the negotiating table, while seeking common ground diplomatically. Side agreements such as those that exist in the original NAFTA and in the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) are one way to work with the two countries’ differences. Many of the provisions in a side agreement are not binding and thus not subject to the agreement’s dispute settlement mechanism or trade sanctions. Instead, they are more aspirational and sometimes lay out a process for civil society groups to raise issues and help the thinking on those issues evolve, rather than simply holding the parties accountable for breaches. Canada is rightly concerned about Chinese stances on human rights, labour, environmental and gender issues. However, instead of including these issues in the main document on trade, they can be dealt with as shared interests between the two countries. Establishing separate but parallel mechanisms to deal with these issues would be a practical way to make progress. Focusing on micro, small and medium-sized businesses as one Chapter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) did, could be another successful approach. Women own many of these businesses in developing countries, so such a focus would make a substantial contribution to their welfare. None of this means Canada should kowtow to China or look the other way on important values and issues. Side agreements and special focuses have formed parts of agreements with other countries that already share Canada’s Western values. This type of give-and-take is present even when Canada negotiates with countries that are not polar opposites. No country’s interests are exactly the same as those of any other and it’s unrealistic to expect unanimity on every issue. Language and firm commitments on progressive issues are still evolving in many of Canada’s free trade agreements, including the USMCA. It would be unreasonable to hope that everything can be achieved in an agreement with China on the first go-around. Rather, viewing a trade agreement with China as a work-in-progress means controversial elements can be brought into the negotiations and language used that reflects the understanding that these issues are evolving. It will require creative thinking, flexibility and joint commitment to find a solution, but—assuming that the USMCA does not rule out Canada-China negotiations toward a trade agreement— it should be possible to find sufficient common ground without having to resort to obfuscation and “creative ambiguity”.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, NAFTA, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, and North America

2328. China-Israel Relations: Growing Cooperation Amidst Conflicting Interests

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: In the past decade, relations between Israel and China have become closer, following a decision in Jerusalem to diversify and expand Israel’s ties with emerging powers and countries that do not belong to the European Union and are less identified with the American coalition. The visit to Israel by China’s vice president is evidence of the warming of relations between the two countries.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2329. Not Quite that Close: Israel’s Policy towards China

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s strategy toward China doesn’t conflict with American interests; rather, it serves and reinforces them. Partnering with Beijing can help stabilize the Middle East. Partnering with Asian nations threatened by Beijing can help build a counterbalance to Chinese power.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Economic Cooperation, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2330. The Future of Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of the Rise of China

Author:: Dr. R. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There are numerous analyses about China and its future, as well as about Chinese engagement with Latin America. This report examines, in detail, how the growth of China, with its power and role in the global economy, is likely to transform Latin America and the Caribbean through economic, political, and other forms of engagement with the region. The report considers multiple scenarios regarding the future of China, the resolution of its security challenges, and possible departures from its current trajectory. It focuses primarily on the question of what Latin America and the Caribbean will look like if China succeeds in its ongoing economic and political engagement in the region. Compared to scenario-oriented analyses, this report does not attempt to predict the detailed political ebbs and flows of the region. Instead, it examines economic sectors to understand how the region will be transformed through its intimate economic relationship with China and its part in a global process in which Chinese companies continue to expand their presence in the region. While the report also looks at military issues and the likely evolution of Latin America’s relationship with the United States, it finds equally dramatic implications for China’s willingness to use its soft power in the region. While this report does not claim that China has nefarious objectives to politically dominate the region, or usurp the United States as a superpower, it does find evidence that the logical extension of China’s current expansion plans threatens to relegate the region to a future of limited economic opportunity and personal liberty. This is seen in China’s actions to pursue its development interests, dominate the most lucrative parts of global value chains, and expand China’s power with a questionable level of respect for Western concepts of universal laws, rights, and freedoms. As China continues in the pursuit of these goals, compromised elites serve the transfer of wealth and resources from the Latin American region and other "Belt and Road" region to the new imperial center.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

2331. Technological Competition and China

Author:: James A. Lewis
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Napoleon’s famous quotation about a sleeping giant moving the world when it awoke seems prescient, but a closer examination presents a more complex story. China’s rise is often accompanied by corresponding predictions of inevitable conflict and U.S. decline. These predictions are simplistic and rest on assumptions of China’s economic and political trajectory that may not be valid. In the near term, competition is unavoidable, and the more important challenge comes from China’s efforts to “return to the center of the world stage” and the means China uses to attain this at a time when the United States is reassessing its global role. The United States and China are in a growing competition, perhaps verging on conflict, but it is not a nineteenth century competition between empires for control of territory and resources. Unlike great power competition in previous centuries, the focal point is not military strength or territorial expansion. This conflict is over control of the modern levers of power—global rules and institutions, standards, trade, and technology. The ability to create new technologies, particularly digital technologies (given their importance for politics, security, and economic growth) have become key factors in the U.S.-China relationship, which is marked by close commercial cooperation and deep governmental distrust. This disparity creates unavoidable tensions. The link between technology, innovation, national security, and international power is now widely recognized. When Vladimir Putin says that the country that leads in artificial intelligence (AI) “will be the ruler of the world,” it is hyperbole, but hyperbole that confirms that political leaders recognize that the ability to innovate is a potent source of national power. In the digital age, national security and national power have different requirements shaped by technological change and cyberspace. Innovation has become a central element of its international influence.1 This is not new—the U.S.-Soviet space race was a contest of the ability of different systems to produce new technologies, but those were unique government programs. Technological competition today is as much between companies as states. A country’s ability to innovate and produce advanced technologies provides economic strength, military power, and an intangible benefit of perceived leadership. Both China and the United States have advantages and disadvantages in this contest, and while it is usual to focus on quantitative aspects—such as the number of engineers or patents and spending on research and development (R&D)—these are not the key determinants of technological competition between states. This competition is a contest of ideas on governance for investment, innovation, and the internet. The internet and global connectivity not only reshape the environment for competition but also create political and market forces that both nations find difficult to control.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2332. The Article II Mandate: Forging a Stronger Economic Alliance between the United States and Japan

Author:: Matthew P. Goodman, Ann Listerud, and Daniel Remler
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The alliance between the United States and Japan has been a force for peace and prosperity around the world for nearly 60 years. Economics has been at the heart of the U.S.–Japan alliance from the outset: Article II of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security mandates that the two allies “seek to eliminate conflict in their international economic policies and … encourage economic collaboration between them.” Nowhere are U.S. and Japanese strategic interests more closely aligned than in the Indo-Pacific region. Both Washington and Tokyo seek to ensure regional security and stability, expand trade and other economic opportunities, and support universal democratic norms. The two countries have worked constructively together for many decades to shape regional economic rules and norms through institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regionalism, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2333. China and Russia in global governance: Long-term obstacles to cooperation

Author:: Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia and China play dissimilar roles in global governance and define their interests in this sphere in divergent ways. While the two states agree on certain international principles and norms, their engagement with global governance differs significantly. These differences pose the most serious long-term obstacle to closer cooperation between Moscow and Beijing
Topic:: International Affairs and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and China

2334. Xi Jinping thought and China’s future foreign policy: Multipolarity with Chinese characteristics

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Xi Jinping Thought is aimed at guiding China both domestically and internationally. The goal is China’s national rejuvenation, which will break the global dominance of Western civilization. The revival must allegedly be led by a strong ideology guided by a strong and charismatic leader: Xi Jinping. Based on the ancient Chinese ideal of “great unity under Heaven”, Xi’s long-term goal for China is the creation of a “community of a common destiny for Mankind”. So far, this idea has no concrete manifestations on the global scale. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China is building a regional community of common destiny in Central and Southeast Asia. This is both an indirect challenge to the existing “Western” system, and a step in delineating China’s sphere of influence.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

2335. China: Champion of (Which) Globalisation?

Author:: Alessia Amighini
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: This year marks the 40th anniversary of China’s reforms and opening up. In four decades, China has learned how to grasp the benefits of globalisation and has become a world economic champion. As the world’s second-largest economy, today China is no longer the factory of the world but an industrial power aiming at the forefront of major hightech sectors, in direct competition with Europe and the US. In sharp contrast with Trump’s scepticism on multilateralism, President Xi has renewed his commitment to growing an open global economy. But how does globalisation with Chinese characteristic look like? Is Beijing offering more risks or more opportunities to both mature and emerging economies? To what extent is China willing to comply with international rules and standards? Is Beijing trying set its own global rules and institutions? Is the world destined to a new model of economic globalisation detached from political and cultural openness?
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

2336. The United States, China, and Southeast Asia: Can ASEAN Find a New Strategic Equilibrium?

Author:: Kevin Rudd
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: U.S.-China relations have now entered into a new structural phase. Officially, the Americans describe this as a change from 40 years of “strategic engagement” to a new period of “strategic competition.” The precise definition of strategic competition, as an operational rather than a declaratory strategy, has yet to fully emerge. But we would be foolish not to recognize that there has been a fundamental systemic shift in U.S. sentiment toward China
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China

2337. Financing Green Growth

Author:: Gregor Semieniuk and Mariana Mazzucato
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper surveys the current state of financing green growth in the energy sector, based on the insight that there are different qualities of finance. In past transformational changes in other sectors, public monies played a key role across the innovation landscape. Public financing was central also in a number of past national energy transitions, as reviewed here for Iceland (from fossil to geothermal energy), Norway (from mainly non-electricity energy to hydroelectricity), France (from oil to nuclear) and the United States (from conventional to shale gas). In the current transition to low-carbon energy supplies, there is much public activity, most directed and concerted in China, but also reasons to doubt it is enough and applied in the right places to be able to finance the transition to a low carbon sector on time scales consistent with current climate change mitigation targets. A discussion of opportunities and challenges to a more central role for public financing concludes, drawing also on insights from the recent mission-oriented innovation literature.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Finance, Green Technology, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, France, North America, Iceland, and United States of America

2338. American Radical Economists in Mao’s China: From Hopes to Disillusionment

Author:: Isabella M. Weber and Gregor Semieniuk
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: American radical economists in the 1960s perceived China under Maoism as an important experiment in creating a new society, aspects of which they hoped could serve as a model for the developing world. But the knowledge of ‘actually existing Maoism’ was very limited due to the mutual isolation between China and the US. This paper analyses the First Friendship Delegation of American Radical Political Economists (FFDARPE) to the People’s Republic of China in 1972, consisting mainly of Union for Radical Political Economics (URPE) members, which was the first visit of a group of American economists to China since 1949. Based on interviews with trip participants as well as archival and published material, this paper studies what we can learn about the engagement with Maoism by American radical economists from their dialogues with Chinese hosts, from their on-the-ground observations, and their reflection upon return. We show how the visitors’ own ideas conflicted and intersected with their perception of the Maoist practice on gender relations; workers’ management and life in the communes. We also shed light on the diverging conceptions of the role for economic expertise between URPE and late Maoism. As the first in-depth study on the FFDARPE we provide rich empirical insights into an ice-breaking event in the larger process of normalization in the Sino- U.S relations, that ultimately led to the disillusionment of the Left with China.
Topic:: Radicalization, Capitalism, Economic Theory, Transition, and Socialism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2339. The Mainstream Economics Interpretation of the Local State and Central-Local Relations in Post-Mao China: a Critical Review

Author:: Alexandre De Podesta Gomes
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Decentralization and the role of local governments have long been touted as key factors in the Chinese economic miracle. This paper intends to critically assess the chief theories advanced by mainstream economics in its attempt to make sense of these aspects of China’s growth story. Firstly the theoretical underpinnings of fiscal federalism, new institutional economics, and market-preserving federalism approaches will be presented, as these theories offer the bedrock for most of the applied insights in which China is framed through the lenses of the central-local relations debate. Secondly, the idea of ‘market-preserving federalism, Chinese-style’ will be critically appraised, highlighting its shortcomings. Thirdly, the paper proceeds by bringing in the mainstream response to these problems, relying on the notion of political incentives and career concerns faced by local cadres. It will be argued that the continual adherence to some core tenets dear to the new institutional economics literature in all previous explanations prevents this broad camp of knowledge to properly grasp the complex dynamics of China’s decentralization drive and the role of local governments in the process. Finally, and in closing, an alternative approach will be offered.
Topic:: Economics, Local, Decentralization, and Federalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2340. Endowment Structure, Industry Dynamics and Vertical Production Structure in China-Theory and Evidence

Author:: Jim H. Shen, Leilei Shen, and Jun Zhang
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper proposes a theoretical model and shows that the comparative advantage of China’s factor endowment allows firms specializing in the midstream stage to gain at least as much as firms that specialize in the two ends of the supply chain (capital-intensive stage and labour- intensive stage) in terms of labour productivity and profitability, if and only if they have at least as much viability and use intermediate level of capital intensity. The empirical results are consistent with the theory’s predictions. Our findings on China’s industry supply chain production patterns provide a new angle on the division of gains in the vertical production network driven by the endowment structure. This could have far-reaching implications for the industrial development of other middle-income countries.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Capital, and Production
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2341. Do Not Fall for the Hype on U.S.-China Natural Gas Trade

Author:: Melanie Hart, Luke Bassett, and Blaine Johnson
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s obsession with fossil fuel exports plays into Beijing’s grand strategy to become the next high-tech superpower.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Gas, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2342. Social Stability and Resource Allocation within Business Groups

Author:: Haikun Zhu
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Using datasets on transactions within business groups and social sentiment in China, I show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) use internal funds to address social unrest, complying with the government’s political goals. I use plausibly unexpected shocks to regional stability to analyze the response of SOEs to these events. I find that the government, as the controlling shareholder, adopts a carrot-and-stick approach. The government offers a “carrot” by injecting funds into SOEs located in the affected areas, which are then used to generate benefits to the public, such as larger labor payments and additional capital expenditures. However, if there are severe political conflicts that threaten its authority, the government applies a “stick” by withdrawing resources. The SOEs channel seems effective because local sentiment recovers around shocks when SOEs offer more benefits. Additional tests show that the SOEs channel is significant in economic magnitude compared to fiscal redistribution. As a result of the transfer, SOEs lose value after shocks, but firms in the region improve their performance later. This paper provides new evidence on how the intra-group allocation of resources incorporates political objectives, and has socioeconomic impact.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Business, Capital, and Social Stability
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2343. Complementarity and dependency in the Energy sector and the transition to a low-carbon economy

Author:: Clarissa Lins, Izabella Teixeira, Adilson de Oliveira, Ricardo Besada, and Zhou Xizhou
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: At its sixth meeting, CEBRI’s China Analysis Group Meeting promoted a wide-ranging debate on the opportunities and challenges emerging for China and Brazil by the new geopolitics of carbon and the ongoing energy transition – characterized, among other trends, by falling costs of renewable sources and by the rise of natural gas as a strategic transition fuel. In this context, participants highlighted the merger between the agendas of energy security and sustainable development worldwide, with implications for both policymaking and investment priorities – since the energy sector accounts for approximately a third of total greenhouse gas emissions globally.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Economy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

2344. Beyond the trade war: Made in China 2025, innovation and the 4.0 industrial revolution

Author:: Tatiana Rosito, Joren Selleslaghs, Margaret Myers, Mariano Laplane, and Yan Li
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: At its seventh meeting, CEBRI’s China Analysis Group Meeting promoted insightful discussions on the characteristics of Chinese policymaking in science and technology, with particular emphasis on the formulation, implementation and global implications of the Made in China 2025 Plan. As such, in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, discussions encompassed the global trend towards digitization and informatization in manufacturing, as reflected in Chinese efforts towards upgrading its industry. Ultimately, this would respond to the Chinese goal of advancing to higher stages in global technological value chains and ensuring self-sufficiency in high-tech sectors.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Trade, and Industry
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2345. China in Latin America

Author:: Tatiana Rosito, Benjamin Creutzfeldt, Chang Yunbo, Enrique Dussel Peters, and Renato Baumann
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: At its eighth meeting, CEBRI’s China Analysis Group Meeting held a constructive dialogue about the different aspects of China’s presence in Latin America, and the risks and benefits involved. Overall, participants noted that Chinese engagement in the region through trade and investments is closely related to the reproduction of a geopolitical model aimed at promoting access to natural resources. Another important stream of activities include infrastructure investments and projects, mostly through engineering and construction services. Although there could be a potential for investments to help diversify the relationship, they have mostly reinforced existing asymmetries in the trade structure between China and Latin America.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

2346. The Belt and Road Initiative: views from Brazil and other partners

Author:: Anna Jaguaribe, Benoni Belli, Tatiana Rosito, Carsten Hasbach, and Tobias Dennehy
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: At its ninth meeting, CEBRI’s China Analysis Group promoted insightful exchanges among varied stakeholders concerning the implications of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Speakers focused on analyzing its strategic significance for China and the opportunities established for different actors involved, including partner countries and multinational companies operating in fields related to infrastructure. In light of the BRI’s impressive figures – encompassing over 90 countries, around 50% of global GDP and 70% of the world's population – participants explored the Initiative’s meaning beyond infrastructure investments and connectivity, stressing its geopolitical nature and the central role in the Chinese ambition to shape the future of globalization and the global order.
Topic:: Globalization, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, and South America

2347. Good Foreign Policy Makes for Good Domestic Policy//Una Buena Política Exterior Contribuye a Una Buena Política Interior

Author:: COMEXI
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI)
Abstract:: The electoral results of July 1st 2018 bring an extraordinary opportunity to rethink Mexico’s foreign strategy in order to position the country in accordance with its domestic goals and its international reality, considering the means that the country has at its disposal to increase its appeal and competitiveness on the international stage. Mexico has several comparative advantages that can be leveraged—and, at the same time, reinforced—in the international arena. These include the country’s geographic position (bridging the Atlantic and the Pacific), demographics (with an average age of 28 years), language (Spanish is the second-most spoken language in the world), energy resources, 12 trade agreements with 46 countries, economic and political stability, and a denuclearized, interstate Zone of Peace free of religious conflict. The next Mexican administration will face an unusually complex international environment that will force it to give special priority to its foreign policy. Challenges that arise in the international arena could affect national stability, undermine Mexico’s room for maneuver, and impact its development goals. Therefore, having a clear, relevant, and viable strategy that addresses the fundamental interests of the Mexican people and that also has enough clout on the international stage, is crucial. / Ante los resultados electorales del pasado primero de julio, se abre una extraordinaria oportunidad para repensar la estrategia mexicana hacia el exterior que posicione a México en un espacio congruente con sus objetivos internos y su realidad internacional. Todo ello en el contexto de las herramientas que tiene a su disposición para aumentar su atractivo y competitividad en el escenario internacional. México posee diversas ventajas comparativas que pueden ser aprovechadas —y, al mismo tiempo, dinamizadas— en el entorno internacional. Por mencionar algunas: la localización geográfica, puente entre el Atlántico y el Pacífico; la demografía, con una edad de población promedio de 28 años; el idioma, el español es el segundo idioma más hablado en el mundo; los recursos energéticos; una red de 12 tratados comerciales con 46 países; estabilidad económica y política; y una zona de paz interestatal, desnuclearizada, y sin conflictos religiosos. El próximo gobierno de México enfrentará un escenario internacional inusualmente complejo que le obligará a otorgar un grado de prioridad muy destacado a su política exterior. Los desafíos provenientes del ámbito internacional podrían afectar la estabilidad nacional, socavar sus márgenes de maniobra e incidir sobre sus metas de desarrollo, por lo que resulta crucial contar con una estrategia precisa, pertinente, y de ejecución viable, que responda a los intereses esenciales de la nación mexicana, y que alcance la contundencia necesaria en el ámbito internacional.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Elections, European Union, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, North America, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and United States of America

2348. Rhetoric and Reality of Doklam Incident

Author:: Jigme Phuntsho
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:: Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:: Doklam standoff which took place between the armies of India and China was a major clash between the two Asian giants. The incident lasted from 18 June to 28 August 2017. For the first time, Bhutan was involved in a conflict between its two neighbours. Exchange of fiery rhetoric characterized the incident, besides unprecedented scale of military drills on both sides of the border, and speculations of an imminent war. The standoff was resolved for now, but the issues related to border dispute continue to emerge, raising the concern for a similar face-off at any time. This article discusses the events that unfolded in the course of the Doklam standoff based on online news articles and a few reports posted on the internet.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Bhutan

2349. CAN ECONOMIC SANCTION ACTIVITY IMPROVE HUMAN RIGHTS PRACTICES?

Author:: K. Chad Clay
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Governments often use economic sanctions for the expressed reason of curbing poor human rights practices by targeted states. However, previous research on the topic (e.g. Peksen 2009; Wood 2008) has found that the imposition of economic sanctions is regularly followed by increases in the use of torture, extrajudicial killing, political imprisonment, and enforced disappearance (also known as physical integrity rights abuses) by the targeted government, even when the sanctions are imposed over the target’s human rights practices. This raises a question: if sanctions produce worse human rights outcomes in the states targeted with them, why do governments continue to use them to try to improve human rights? There are many possible answers to that question, but in my recent article at the Journal of Global Security Studies, I focus on two in particular. First, while the imposition of economic sanctions may very well lead to increased abuse in targeted states, the threat of human rights-related economic sanctions may lead to improvements in the targeted government’s human rights practices (e.g. Drezner 2003; Lacy and Niou 2004). Second, targeted states may not be the only, or even the most important, audience for the signal sent by sanction activity (Baldwin 1985). As such, by showing observing leaders around the world that there is a possible additional cost associated with human rights abuse, rights-related sanction activity may cause some governments that were not targeted with sanctions to think twice before engaging in rights violations.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: China, Burundi, and Global Focus

2350. ALL STICK, NO CARROTS: THE SHORTSIGHTED GEOPOLITICS OF THE IRAN SANCTIONS

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The Trump administration, having withdrawn the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action last May, is threatening US trading partners over doing business with Iran and attempting to freeze Iran out of global oil markets. The attempted freeze-out began with the re-imposition of US sanctions against Iran and businesses operating there, and the Trump administration set November 4 as the target date for US allies to zero out their purchases of Iranian crude. With some arm-twisting, NATO allies like Turkey and Asian security partners South Korea and India have agreed to curb Iranian imports, though it will be difficult for India to zero out its Iranian imports. Fearful of being caught up by US sanctions, major European firms like Total, Allianz, and Maersk have begun winding down operations in Iran in advance of the November 4 deadline. This whole episode reflects a fundamental misunderstanding, on the part of the Trump administration, of both the conditions under which sanctions can hope to be successful in winning policy concessions and the geopolitical realities of pursuing said course of action.
Topic:: NATO, Oil, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, India, and United States of America

2351. WHO WILL MANAGE THE TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN RIGHTS AND SECURITY ON THE INTERNET?

Author:: Deborah Avant
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Despite much focus on China and Russia, the Internet’s future is being shaped by a more varied set of relationships. In a recent example, Microsoft employees issued an open letter asking the company not to bid on the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) contract to build cloud services for the Department of Defense. The employees complain that the JEDI contract may violate Microsoft values: to “empower everyone on the planet to do more”. It is unclear just what Microsoft would be doing (cloud services can refer to everything from infrastructure to platforms to software—and the security to support each), but employees worry that their efforts could be used to harm others.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Internet, and Civil Liberties
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

2352. Chinese Views of Korean History in the Cold War Era

Author:: Jin Linbo
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This chapter draws a rough sketch of the evolution of Chinese views on Korean history in the Cold War era in three parts. The first focuses on the formulation of Chinese views of the Korean War in 1950 and the mainstream assessment of the war after Sino-South Korean diplomatic normalization in 1992. The second focuses on China’s attitudes and policies toward the two Koreas in the Cold War years. The third deals with the changes and limits of perceptions on Korean history after diplomatic normalization and their impact on bilateral relations between Beijing and Seoul. For centuries many Chinese have firmly believed that the relationship between China and the Korean Peninsula is like that between lips and teeth, they are not only close to but also dependent upon each other. If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold. From the middle of nineteenth century, the geopolitical proximity and interdependence between the two have become the determining factors in formulating Chinese perceptions towards Korea. Since then the national security concerns symbolized by the sense of lips and teeth had been frequently stressed by some Chinese intellectuals and officials when both China and Korea were exposed to the growing imperialist expansion and geopolitical competition in East Asia. In order to maintain the traditional tributary relationship between China and Korea, China fought the first Sino-Japanese War in 1894-95. Although it was miserably defeated, and Korea was consequently annexed to the Japanese empire in 1910, the Chinese sense of lips and teeth remained undiminished. Rather, it was further strengthened among ordinary Chinese when the Cold War began and especially when the Korean War broke out in 1950. After the end of World War II, China faced a new situation on the peninsula. Korea was liberated from Japanese rule but soon divided into the Soviet backed socialist North Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and the U.S. backed capitalist South Korea, the Republic of Korea (ROK). As a newly established socialist country, China naturally allied itself with the Soviet Union and viewed the DPRK as a close friend while regarding the United States and ROK as hated foes. The intensified Cold War confrontation between the two camps and two Koreas triggered the outbreak of the Korean War. In order to safeguard its own political, ideological, and security interests, China quickly got involved in the war by sending the Chinese People’s Volunteer Army (CPVA) to fight together with its DPRK friend against their common enemies. The war ended with a cease-fire armistice and created a friend and foe Cold War framework, which the new China was compelled to face even beyond the Cold War era. Under these circumstances, the majority of Chinese held the view that it was the capitalist enemy rather than the socialist friend who started the Korean War with a view to overthrowing not only the socialist government in Pyongyang but also the similar one in Beijing. Therefore, it was against this background that China’s attitudes and policies toward the two Koreas in the post-Korean War era were doomed to be ideologydriven and DPRK sympathetic.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

2353. Chinese Views of Korean History in the Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries

Author:: Kirk W. Larsen
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: In July 2014, Ambassador Qiu Guohong in preparation for Xi Jinping’s visit to Seoul stated that the “relationship between South Korea and China couldn’t be any better.”1 Among the many reasons for this—economic, geostrategic, cultural—was a shared sense of history. China and Korea, officials and commentators in both nations claimed, were close because of their agreement regarding the significance of their experiences as victims of foreign, particularly Japanese, imperialism in the 19th and 20th centuries. History, that constellation of memories, stories, and notions about the past, has often been deployed to reinforce conceptions of identity, to support certain courses of action, and to demarcate between the in-group and the other. But history is ever malleable and protean. Not only do individuals, institutions, and ideas change but so does the understanding of them. When one draws on the past, one inevitably focuses on a limited set of events or narratives that best serve one’s interests—to the exclusion of potentially equally valid candidates. Their utility can vary over time; one need only think of how figures such as Zheng He or Confucius have been imagined and re-imagined over the last century. This has been the case with the history of relations between China and Korea from the latenineteenth to the mid-twentieth centuries. For many Chinese, Korea has served first as a subject of contestation as China’s position in Korea was challenged by both Western and Japanese powers. Then, when it became increasingly clear that China (or the Qing Empire) was losing this contest, Korea became an omen of China’s own fate absent significant course changes. As Japan’s growing empire engulfed Korea and subsequently threatened parts of China, resistance served to bring China and Korea closer; many in China celebrated what they saw as courageous resistance to Japan—such as when An Chunggun assassinated Ito Hirobumi in 1909. Shared status as victims of Japanese imperialism in an age of “humiliation” brought the two closer, and the mutually shared memory of “humiliation” has been deployed by contemporary Chinese and South Korean leaders—Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye—to foster greater levels of cooperation. However, past conceptions of China, Korea, and the Sino-Korean relationship have sometimes ranged far afield from the cherished tropes of humiliation and the struggle for independence. Even seemingly universally agreed upon symbols, such as An’s heroic 1909 assassination, find themselves subject to changing interpretations such as recent emphasis by some on his pan-Asian vision of Sino-Korean-Japanese cooperation rather than his bold anti-Japanese act. As interests and priorities change, so does the utility of any particular historical narrative.
Topic:: International Relations, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

2354. Chinese Views of Korean History to the Late 19th Century

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: In the tradition of imperial China and communism, Chinese publications see history as a morality tale. In the case of Korean history to the late decades of the nineteenth century there are essentially three actors: virtuous China, evil Japan, and variable Korea. There are three critical periods which receive the bulk of attention: the 7th century, the late 16th century trailing into the 17th century change of dynasty in China, and the last decades of the 19th century. The narrative advances the notion of competing visions of regional order, contrasting Chinese and Japanese frameworks and examining Korean policies in light of the choices made between these options. Official Chinese narratives couch today’s opportunities in historical context. A battle rages between socialism and capitalism, offering China a unique prospect to tip the balance. This is not only a present-day challenge; it is a struggle over consciousness of history—a campaign against “historical nihilism” that disagrees with orthodoxy in support of communist party legitimacy and the rectitude of Chinese civilization. A speech given by Xi Jinping in July 2010 at the Central Party School and only recently made available leaves no doubt about the tight censorship imposed on publications about history. South Korea’s history is especially sensitive as the poster-child for the benevolence of the imperial Chinese regional order, the battleground for the key war fought by China to maintain its surroundings against capitalist encroachment, and a chief testing grounds for the rejuvenation of China against U.S. hegemonism and Western civilization. Premodern history is an inseparable part of this agenda.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Imperialism, History, and Narrative
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Korea

2355. Chinese Views of Korean History

Author:: KEI
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The way Chinese officials and writers view the history of Korea—from ancient times to the post- Cold War developments in South Korea—matters for at least three reasons. It is a commentary on Chinese national identity since Korea bears importantly on multiple dimensions of how that identity has recently been constructed. It is likewise a window on how Chinese view the order they seek to forge in East Asia, linking it to the earlier Sinocentric order. Finally, Chinese views of Korea’s history offer valuable insight into China’s vision of the future of the Korean Peninsula and its relationship to China. It is commonplace to regard historical narrative as a lens on views of the present and plans for future policies, but this is even more the case for a country with the tradition of Confucian historiography with its extraordinary stress on correct thinking about the past, and communist historiography redolent with socialist realism insistent on a zero-sum understanding of the past. We read in Chinese historical writings on Korea a morality tale with undoubted relevance to how China constructs both its identity and its international relations. The Korean Peninsula has significance for Chinese national identity beyond that of any foreign country except Russia and the United States with the possible exception of Japan. It is where ideology was honed as China sent the PLA to prevent the fall of North Korea after Mao had given his blessing along with Stalin to the North’s attack on the South. As ideology has grown again in importance, the significance of North Korea’s socialist pedigree and shared origins in the crucible of revolution against imperialism has risen. In the historical dimension of national identity, China’s leaders in the 1990s weighed allowing candor about the origins of the Korean War at a time when de-ideologization was fitfully taking place and there was no established narrative on history. Some saw sensitivity to North Korean reactions as the key to why China did not go further, but the resistance inside China proved more tenacious than they assumed. Historical purity toward Japan intensified apart from a short-lived interval with “new thinking” in 2003. With South Korea on the frontlines in China’s quest for demonization of Japan over history, its own history became a test case for the national identity gap between it and China. The history of Korea is so interwoven with that of China and it can reveal much about recent views.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, and Identity
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Korea

2356. South Korea’s Strategic Approach to China (or Lack of It)

Author:: Chung Jae Ho
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Pertinent literature abounds on how East Asian states have struggled to position themselves vis-à-vis a rising China over the past two decades. Due to its geographical proximity and cultural similarities with China, as well as its strategic importance to both the United States and China, South Korea’s tightrope-walking has been more pronounced than anyone else’s.1 Given the crucial strategic issues regarding U.S.-China relations and the North Korean conundrum, how the Seoul-Beijing relationship is to evolve undoubtedly constitutes a key variable in regional security dynamics. This chapter asks what is Seoul’s recipe for dealing with a China that is becoming more “assertive,” examining its changing strategic and diplomatic stance over the years of the Park Geun-hye administration and the first year of the Moon Jae-in government. Of the six sections, the first offers a brief overview of the complex relationship since diplomatic normalization in 1992. The second outlines key features of an era of overoptimism during the first three years of the Park administration (2013-15). The third delves into the issue of THAAD (terminal high-altitude area defense) deployment and how that utterly shattered the Park-Xi honeymoon in 2016. The fourth offers a discussion on China’s narrowly-focused sanctions during 2016-17. The fifth is devoted to the first year of the Moon administration, focusing on envoy politics, the “three-noes controversy,” and Moon’s state visit to China. The final section provides concluding assessments of the factors critical in shaping Moon’s policy toward China and where the room for mending relations remains.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Strategic Planning, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

2357. Is the Belt and Road Initiative a Chinese-style Regionalism?

Author:: Tu Xinquan
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: In the last two decades, bilateral and regional trade agreements (RTAs) have been considered a primary force to advance the world trading system because the Doha Development Agenda of the WTO has stagnated since its launch in 2001. The continuous expansion of the European Union and the American-led NAFTA and TPP as well as bilateral FTAs between the United States and EU and their partners best exemplified this phenomenon. However, such an approach is facing serious challenges from rising anti-globalization sentiment originating in the EU and United States in recent years. In June 2016, the United Kingdom decided to exit the EU as a result of a referendum. This is the first time a EU member chose to leave. On January 23, 2017, at the start of his presidency, Donald Trump signed as his first executive order the withdrawal from TPP, which his predecessor spent years concluding with 11 partners. These two consecutive dramatic actions of the previous and current world leaders shocked the globe. Next to the WTO, regionalism is seen as the second-best choice in promoting globalization. Now, two regional initiatives led by developed countries are facing a serious backlash. The world is concerned that this means the end and a reversal of globalization. Since its WTO accession in 2001, China has also been actively negotiating FTAs with its neighbors as well as some remote partners such as Iceland and New Zealand. While its WTO accession package was praised for its ambition and courage, it is difficult to defend Chinese FTAs as comparable to those of developed countries in terms of market access and institutional changes. One explanation for that is China has made very high-level multilateral commitments. Another one is China is not in such a comfortable strategic and economic position as the United States in negotiating FTAs with either developed or developing countries. The former want to obtain more market access concessions and institutional reforms from China, while the latter are afraid to expose their domestic industries to China’s overwhelming competitiveness in manufacturing. In addition, the Chinese government seems more confident in its own institutions and unwilling to change them due to outside pressure, especially after the 2008 global financial crisis. President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during his state visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia in September and October 2013, which soon was made a top national priority and even included in the Constitution of the Communist Party of China at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Nadege Rolland labels this China’s Grand Strategy1 and the organizing foreign policy concept in the Xi Jinping era.2 One key feature of BRI in comparison with RTAs is that BRI focuses more on improving physical connectivity rather than reducing institutional barriers. The logic of physical connectivity is undoubtedly powerful, especially for developing countries with poor infrastructure. The impact of more and better international links on the regional landscape could be huge, not only by boosting trade and commerce but also by easing flows of energy and other resources, stimulating technological innovation, influencing culture and politics, and shaping strategic choices. Given the fact that RTAs are facing serious difficulties, the BRI looks like an attractive and feasible alternative to promote regional economic integration and globalization. However, there are also plenty of uncertainties and ambiguities surrounding the BRI, particularly due to China’s centrality as well as its direction of economic and strategic development. Hence, this chapter explores BRI characteristics in promoting regional economic integration and whether it could become an alternative approach to regionalism and globalization for China as well as the world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2358. The Chinese Perception of the U.S.-China-ROK Triangle

Author:: Yun Sun
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Since being applied to U.S.-Soviet-China trilateral relations after the Sino-American rapprochement in the early 1970s, the notion/theory of “strategic triangles” has been widely used to examine many trilateral relations. The model of “U.S.-China plus one” is popular among students of U.S.-China relations and, consequently, the policy community has witnessed an increasing amount of scholarship on triangles among U.S.-China-India, U.S.-China-Japan, U.S.-China-Russia, and even U.S.-China-Taiwan. Unsurprisingly, this begs the question whether a strategic triangle could be construed and constructed among the United States, China, and South Korea. Generally speaking, despite the trilateral nature of U.S.-China-ROK relations, the Chinese policy community rarely subscribes to the existence of a strategic triangle among the U.S., China, and South Korea. This is not necessarily because South Korea does not carry the same strategic weight as the two great powers, but more importantly is because China does not see South Korea as possessing the strategic autonomy to act as an independent player in the trilateral relations. Although arguably such autonomy might exist in economic and trade relations, on key political and security issues, the Chinese see South Korea as invariably constrained by the U.S.-ROK military alliance and unable to form its own independent national security policy. In writing about the post-Cold War period with an emphasis on geopolitics, Chinese authors do not often treat South Korean policy or Sino-ROK relations as autonomous. Given the great weight given to the U.S. role, it is important, therefore, to take a triangular approach in assessing these writings centered on South Korea. I do so first explaining in more detail why the “strategic triangle” framework does not apply, then examining views on how this triangle has evolved in a period of rising Chinese power relative to U.S. power and fluctuating U.S.-ROK relations as the leadership in Seoul changed hands, and finally returning to the triangular theme to grasp how this shapes China’s understanding of Seoul’s policies with emphasis on the ongoing Moon Jae-in era.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

2359. Sri Lanka/China politics: Deep water

Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Sri Lanka

2360. China politics: Quick view – Top judge says judicial independence not suitable for China

Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2361. China politics: The new Davos man

Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2362. China politics: Quick View - New commission for integrated military, civilian development

Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2363. Asia politics: Democracy Index 2016: Asia's upward momentum stalls

Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Mongolia, Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Nepal, Australia, Timor-Leste, Singapore, Thailand, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji

2364. China politics: Deciphering the Trump team's China policy

Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2365. China politics: Call the mayor!

Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2366. China/Hong Kong politics: Trembling tycoons

Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Hong Kong

2367. US/China/Taiwan politics: Quick View - Trump affirms One China policy

Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Taiwan

2368. China politics: An illiberal dose

Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2369. China/North Korea politics: Shock and ore

Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and North Korea

2370. China politics: Journeys to the west

Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2371. China politics: The constrained dictator

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2372. Vietnam/China politics: Quick View - Protests against Chinese cruise ships in the South China Sea

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Vietnam

2373. China politics: Annual “two sessions” legislative meeting concludes

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2374. China politics: Code red

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2375. China economy: Clamshell phoneys

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2376. China politics: Buying love

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2377. US/Asia politics: US recalibrates Asian engagement under Trump administration

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Taiwan, South Korea, North Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Nepal, Australia, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong, Laos, Myanmar, Brunei, and Papua New Guinea

2378. Asia politics: Quick View - China’s premier visits Australasia

Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China, Australia, and New Zealand

2379. US/China politics: Quick View - Xi Jinping has reasons to be confident ahead of US visit

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: United States and China

2380. China politics: The loyal family

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2381. China/Hong Kong politics: The dragon head's dilemma

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Hong Kong

2382. China/USA politics: After meeting Xi, Trump softens China stance

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: United States and China

2383. Asia politics: Waiting for the Chinese storm to pass

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and North Korea

2384. US/Asia/China politics: Disorder under heaven

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: United States and China

2385. China: Key figures

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Key players to watch
Political Geography:: China

2386. China: Political and institutional effectiveness

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: China