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1. First Nations, LNG Canada, and the Politics of Anti-Pipeline Protests

Author:
Will Greaves
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
In October 2018, LNG Canada – a C$40 billion joint venture supported by some of the largest multinational corporations in the world, including Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and the Korean Gas Corporation – was approved by its investors, and a new chapter in Canadian political economy began. The project consists of a coastal liquefied natural gas terminal at Kitimat, British Columbia, which is fed by a 670-kilometre pipeline from the shale gas-producing region in the province’s northeast interior. It is the largest private-sector and natural resource investment in Canadian history, in a country where resource extraction still contributes more than 17 per cent of GDP. Moreover, LNG Canada is the cornerstone of the B.C. NDP government’s economic policy, promising to provide 10,000 jobs during construction and up to 950 permanent jobs once the project is fully operational. It will also create $5 billion in additional provincial GDP per year and $23 billion in new revenues over the project’s life, while spurring the growth of a new natural resource industry.1 Predicted economic benefits in the rest of Canada will total $2 billion per year and approximately $500 million in new federal revenues. These benefits will be in addition to an increase in the value of all Canadian liquefied natural gas exports of between $519 million and $5.8 billion per year, depending on market prices.2 Thus, it is not surprising that the federal government is also strongly supportive, and that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was seated next to B.C. Premier John Horgan when the agreement was signed.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Post Colonialism, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Canada

2. A Canadian Primer to the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan

Author:
Colin Robertson
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
On Friday, June 28, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hosts the leaders of the 19 major economic nations and the European Union in Osaka, Japan. As G20 finance ministers noted after their meeting earlier this month “growth remains low and risks remain tilted to the downside. Most importantly, trade and geopolitical tensions have intensified.” Created in the wake of the 2007-2008 “Great Recession”, the G20 is economic multilateralism at work, an insurance policy to prevent globalization going off the rails. This 14th G20 summit is the culmination of a year-long series of ministerial meetings, hosted throughout Japan.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Canada

3. NAFTA Termination: Legal Process in Canada and Mexico

Author:
Tetyana Payosova, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Euijin Jung
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The mechanics of US withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have been widely explored, with an emerging consensus among legal experts that President Donald Trump does have the authority to pull out of the accord. This Policy Brief examines the legal procedures in Canada and Mexico in the event that either country decides to withdraw or terminate NAFTA. Relative to the United States, Canada and Mexico have clearer legal procedures. To terminate NAFTA in Canada, the Department of International Trade would send the notice to withdrawal upon approval by the Cabinet and the Order in Council. In Mexico, the president can notify withdrawal from NAFTA under Article 2205, following Senate approval. To raise tariffs to the MFN level, Canada requires amendment of federal statutes that requires passage in both chambers of the Parliament through regular procedures. To raise its tariffs, Mexico requires a bill to amend federal legislation that has the approval of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada and Mexico

4. What Should Canada’s Aims be in Any Renegotiation of NAFTA?

Author:
Sarah Goldfeder
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
On Jan. 23, the first Monday after being sworn in as president of the United States, Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum that laid the groundwork for exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP was the elegant solution to a host of hold-over irritants from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as well as a way to address wholly new issues of trade and commerce. In the wake of this decision, Trump also promised a wholesale reworking of NAFTA, in which everything would be on the table. In the days since, the Trump trade team has been off to a rocky start. Finally, after months of discussion, the notification incumbent for use of the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) was provided to Congressional leaders on May 18, 2017. Mexico has taken it all in stride, as it took almost immediate advantage of the blusterous U.S. rhetoric to outline its demands for any NAFTA discussion. Canada meanwhile plays the sphinx, open about its willingness to negotiate, but not much else. The U.S. may find that it’s less ready for this round of negotiations than it wanted to be, but its partners are well placed to unite and drive a hard bargain.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Canada and Global Focus

5. Canada' s Trade Minister Is Ready to Make a Difference at the WTO

Author:
François-Philippe Champagne
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
There is an inverse relationship between the number of kilometres François-Philippe Champagne travels and the amount of attention he receives. Canada’s trade minister was in Morocco over the Canadian Thanksgiving weekend for a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting, and in Mexico less than a week later for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s first official visit to the country.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Canada

6. Evaluating the Need for Pipelines: A False Narrative for the Canadian Economy

Author:
Jeff Rubin
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The claim that additional pipeline capacity to tidewater will unlock significantly higher prices for bitumen is not corroborated by either past or current market conditions. Recent international commitments to reduce global carbon emissions over the next three decades will significantly reduce the size of future oil markets. Only the lowest-cost producers will remain commercially viable while high-cost producers will be forced to exit the market. The National Energy Board should consider a rapidly decarbonizing global economy when assessing the need and commercial viability of further pipelines in the country and use Western Canadian Select as the price benchmark when evaluating the economic viability of any new oil sands projects. Pension plans need to stress test their long-term investments in the oil sands in the context of a decarbonizing global economy.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada

7. Issues in Bringing Canadian Fintech to the International Stage

Author:
James Hinton, Domenico Lombardi, and Joanna Wajda
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Given financial technology’s (fintech’s) priority on the global stage, and the Canadian federal budget’s focus on innovation and the middle class, now is the time for Canada to assess its position and develop a national strategy on fintech. The aim of this policy brief is to provide a general description of the fintech industry in Canada, and to describe and draw attention to two complementary aspects of developing a fintech strategy for Canada: first, encouraging domestic fintech innovation — through open data and payment systems — and second, encouraging international expansion — through international agreements among regulators and comprehensive intellectual property strategies. For Canada to be a contender in fintech, Canadian policy makers need to target both domestic growth and international expansion of the sector. In addition to increasing the availability of funding, removing regulatory uncertainty and taking the lead on a national fintech strategy, policy makers should assess the merits of access to data and payments systems for stimulating domestic fintech growth. Increased patent generation and ownership, greater integration of Canadian technology in standards and international agreements with regulators will allow Canadian fintechs to build on their success internationally. The Hamburg G20 Summit on July 7-8, 2017, presents an opportunity to become more informed about the potential financial stability implications from countries already pursuing national fintech strategies.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada

8. Calling a Spade a Spade: Canada's Use of Sanctions

Author:
Andrea Charron
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Canada’s use of sanctions is little studied which means the full scope and effect of this tool are not appreciated. Until 2006, Canada applied sanctions in support of the United Nations almost exclusively. Since then, Canada has also applied discretionary sanctions in support of allies such as the European Union and United States’ measures in addition to those required by the UN Security Council. Lacking extraterritorial reach and with this new tendency to layer sanctions (applying UN and additional measures) requires the navigation of multiple pieces of Canadian legislation. Banks and private companies, which are largely responsible for giving effect to Canada’s sanctions, must navigate this legislation. This has ensnared a few Canadians in the process with little evidence that Canada’s application of sanctions is compelling its targets (people, companies, and states) to change their behaviour. Canada’s application of sanctions is a signal of its desire to support multilateral, collective security efforts – nothing more or less.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada

9. A Primer to the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS)

Author:
Colin Robertson
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
On Wednesday, June 29th, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will host US President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto for the tenth North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS). All three leaders want this meeting to succeed. For President Obama, it will advance his climate agenda continentally and help to cement his legacy in managing good neighbourhood relations. Climate also rates high in President Peña Nieto’s agenda, along with improving access for Mexican goods and mobility for Mexicans within North America. In terms of Canada-Mexico relations, President Peña Nieto expects Prime Minister Trudeau to announce the lifting of the obnoxious Canadian visa requirement. For Prime Minister Trudeau, making his debut as host of a multilateral summit, it is another demonstration that ‘Canada is back’. He must reset the Mexican relationship by announcing the long-promised lifting of the visa. He will get to know Enrique Peña Nieto better (they met briefly at November’s G20 summit and they were friendly ‘rivals’ for ‘APEC ‘hottie’ at the subsequent Manila summit). The summit represents another opportunity for ‘face-time’ with Barack Obama with whom he has quickly established a strong personal friendship and to reciprocate the hospitality of the White House meetings and state dinner in March. The North American summit comes within a week of the Brexit referendum. It will offer an opportunity for the three leaders to demonstrate a different kind of continental integration – less centralized, less bureaucratic – but still successful in mutually advancing economic prosperity that reinforces the sovereignty of each member.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Canada

10. Canada and Saudi Arabia: A deeply flawed but necessary partnership

Author:
Thomas Juneau
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The proposed $15 billion sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia has brought significant attention – mostly negative – to Canada’s partnership with the Arabian Peninsula kingdom. Much of this criticism is valid: the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia is abysmal, and Canada and its allies incur costs by being associated with Riyadh’s poor foreign policy choices. But to stop the analysis here and call for the cancelling of the deal fails to take into account the strategic rationale underlying the relationship with Saudi Arabia. Despite its many flaws, the partnership between Saudi Arabia and West, and therefore Canada, remains necessary; rejecting it and turning Saudi Arabia into a rival would make things worse. An important implication is that the best way forward with regards to the LAV deal is to collectively hold our nose, uphold the agreement, and move on.
Topic:
International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada and Saudi Arabia