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461. The Afghan National Police in 2015 and Beyond

Author:
Michelle Hughes
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Afghan National Police (ANP) has made remarkable progress, but the challenges are urgent, and critical capabilities remain underdeveloped. Within the framework of the minister of interior's own Strategic Vision, opportunities will arise to close some of the capacity gaps in the coming years. Helping the ANP shift from a wartime footing to a contextually appropriate community policing model, and advancing professionalism within the ministry and the operating forces, is critical to sustainability. If a national police force is going to succeed, the linkage between policing and governance must be recognized and strengthened. Managing the expanding array of ANP donors and their activities poses a unique challenge that has yet to be addressed. It is an executive challenge for the Ministry of Interior and a coordination challenge for the international community. For both, it will require a long-term approach. To facilitate effective evidence-based operations (EvBO) and strengthen the relationship between the ANP and the communities it serves, U.S.-funded activities that build capacity for justice and governance need to be more closely aligned with ANP development.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

462. Trends in world military expenditure, 2013

Author:
Sam Perlo-Freeman and Carina Solmirano
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Global military expenditure fell in 2013, by 1.9 per cent in real terms, to reach $1747 billion. This was the second consecutive year in which spending fell, and the rate of decrease was higher than the 0.4 per cent fall in 2012.
Topic:
Security and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

463. Beyond Safe Land: Why security of land tenure is crucial for the Philippines' post-Haiyan recovery

Author:
Daniel Fitzpatrick and Caroline Compton
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Following the devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, the Philippines authorities pledged to 'build back better' – a vision designed to ensure that affected communities were stronger and more resilient in the face of future storms. Significant efforts and some important steps have been taken by various authorities to begin fulfilling that vision.
Topic:
Security and Environment
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

464. Five Long-Term Challenges for NATO beyond the Ukraine Crisis

Author:
Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Moscow's aggression against Ukraine has truly been a “game changer” for the Atlantic Alliance. Its implications for NATO's further evolution can hardly be over-estimated and after the likely shoot-down of a Malaysian civil aircraft over Ukrainian territory, controlled by pro-Russian rebels, the situation is even more unpredictable. Even if the catastrophe has put heavy political pressure on President Putin to reduce Russian involvement in Ukraine, Moscow is still not likely to revert the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. As a result, the crisis will dominate the international security debate for a long time to come. Thus, signs of resolve directed at Russia, measures to reassure the NATO members in Eastern Europe and indications of further cooperation with Ukraine will rank very high on the agenda of the NATO summit in Wales in September 2014. With the draw-down of the operation in Afghanistan, some Allies tend to see NATO's future role as primarily to preserve the territorial integrity of its member states. Hence, they argue in favour of a “back to basics” approach with an Alliance concentrated on its defence mission, according to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Malaysia, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow

465. NATO Enlargement and Russia: Die-Hard Myths and Real Dilemmas

Author:
Michael Ruhle
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The crisis in Ukraine, which culminated in Russia's annexation of the Crimea, marks a new low in NATO-Russia relations. While this relationship had been deteriorating for quite some time, Moscow's role in the Ukraine crisis revealed a geopolitical agenda that caught many observers by surprise. In the course of just a few weeks Russia clearly emerged as a revisionist power, behaving in a manner reminiscent of the "predatory nation-states from the 19th century" and changing borders by force in order to deny a neighbouring country the choice to determine its own alignments.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow

466. Cold War Déjà Vu? NATO, Russia and the Ukraine Crisis

Author:
Roger McDermott, Brooke Smith-Windsor, and Heidi Reisinger
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Russia's behaviour in the Ukrainian crisis has been described by some as giving rise to “the most dangerous situation in East-West relations since the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968.” For one, NATO's recently retired Supreme Allied Commander has called for immediate action in response. This could include, for example, bringing the NATO Response Force – a sea, air, land, special forces capability – to a higher state of alert, and sailing NATO maritime forces into the Black Sea.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

467. Ukraine's Euromaidan: Questions from the (R)evolution

Author:
Hanna Shelest
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The pictures of Kyiv on fire in early 2014 have attracted attention of the world's media, with Molotov cocktails, barricades and injured journalists making headlines. This is in sharp contrast to the previous two months, when hundreds of thousands of people were coming every Sunday to the main square – Maidan Nezalezhnosti – in peaceful protest.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Social Movement
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

468. Does Russia Matter? Purely Political Relations Are Not Enough in Operational Times

Author:
Heidi Reisinger
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
On 27 January 2014, the NATO Defense College Research Division hosted its Russia Roundtable, where international experts from various research institutions meet senior practitioners from the International Staff and International Military Staff from NATO HQ.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

469. The Future of American Landpower: Does Forward Presence Still Matter? The Case of the Army in the Pacific

Author:
John R. Deni
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The time has come for a reappraisal of the U.S. Army's forward presence in East Asia, given the significantly changed strategic context and the extraordinarily high, recurring costs of deploying U.S. Army forces from the 50 states for increasingly important security cooperation activities across the Indo-Asia-Pacific theater. For economic, political, diplomatic, and military reasons, the Indo-Asia-Pacific theater continues to grow in importance to the United States. As part of a broad, interagency, multifaceted approach, the U.S. military plays a critical role in the rebalancing effort now underway. The U.S. Army in particular has a special role to play in bolstering the defense of allies and the deterrence of aggression, promoting regional security and stability, and ameliorating the growing U.S.-China security dilemma.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

470. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:
Mr Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
President Xi Jinping's July 2014 visit to Seoul indicates that the strategic partnership between China and the Republic of Korea is moving forward against a backdrop of growing power competition and instability in the region. Both Seoul and Beijing have strong interest in close cooperation: Beijing wants to prevent a full-fledged trilateral alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea aimed at containing China's rising power Seoul needs Chinese support in its efforts to reach out to Pyongyang and work towards future reunification.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Beijing, Asia, and South Korea

471. Disasters and Dividends: An Asia-Pacific Strategy for Canada

Author:
Jesse MacLean, Andrew McCauley, and Emily Newcombe
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Canada has demonstrated a strong interest in strengthening economic partnerships across the Asia-Pacific, having recently expanded its diplomatic presence in the region through the establishment of a mission to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and reaffirmed its desire to join such forums as the East Asia Summit. While Canadian officials routinely find themselves simply passing through Asian capitals, Canada's market share in the Asia-Pacific is below potential and Canada lags behind in comprehensive trade agreements signed with the region's states (Dobson 2012). As Canada seeks to expand trade ties in the Asia-Pacific, its active engagement must come not only through sustained presence in economic forums, but also through tangible investment in the region's security architecture.
Topic:
Security, Disaster Relief, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Canada and Asia

472. Federated Defense in Asia

Author:
Michael J. Green, Kathleen H. Hicks, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States has long emphasized the desirability of working with allies and partners to meet pressing security challenges. Indeed, many of our most vexing security concerns—from terrorism to cyber attacks—are best met with concerted multilateral responses. At a time when the United States and many of its allies and partners are reluctant to increase defense and security spending, working together is paramount. This is perhaps most evident in Asia, where present and potential future threats to security and prosperity are high and shared interests are substantial.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Intelligence
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

473. Indian perspectives on the Ukrainian crisis and Russia's annexation of Crimea

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The statement by India's national security adviser on March 6th 2014 referring to "legitimate" Russian interest in Ukraine was unsurprisingly criticised in the West, but appreciated in Russia. Most observers missed other important elements in the statement: reference to Ukraine's internal issues; recognition that both Russian and other interests were involved; and emphasis on a peaceful settlement, reconciliation and negotiation. Debate on the Ukrainian crisis has been largely absent in India due to preoccupation with national elections, widespread consensus that Russia is a dependable "friend of India", and sneaking admiration of President Putin for his "decisiveness" in promoting Russia's interests and open defiance of the West. While China and Pakistan have deployed historical/ethno-cultural arguments to dispute Indian sovereignty over territories that India considers its own, India has consistently rejected claims to alter the territorial status quo on grounds of kinship across sovereign borders.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, India, and Asia

474. Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement and the Future of European and Asian Energy

Author:
Pinar Dost-Niyego and Orhan Taner
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

475. India and Pakistan: The Opportunity Cost of Conflict

Author:
Shuja Nawaz and Mohan Guruswamy
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
India and Pakistan, born out of a single British-ruled entity in 1947, have continued an implacable rivalry marked by periodic wars and hostilities as well as through proxies. This unending conflict has led them to invest heavily in their militaries and even to choose nuclear weaponry as a deterrence on the part of Pakistan toward India and on India's part toward both Pakistan and China. Although there have been occasional moves toward confidence building measures and most recently toward more open borders for trade, deep mistrust and suspicion mark this sibling rivalry. Their mutual fears have fuelled an arms race, even though increasingly civil society actors now appear to favor rapprochement and some sort of an entente. The question is whether these new trends will help diminish the military spending on both sides.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

476. Risks of Intelligence Pathologies in South Korea

Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A failure of intelligence on the Korean peninsula-the site of the world's highest concentration of military personnel with a history of fraught, sometimes violent, sabre-rattling-could have catastrophic consequences. Yet the South Korean intelligence community has revealed its susceptibility to three types of pathologies-intelligence failure, the politicisation of intelligence, and intervention in domestic politics by intelligence agencies-which bring into stark relief the potential for grievous miscalculation and policy distortions when addressing the threat from North Korea. Moves by intelligence agencies to recover or bolster their reputations by compromising sensitive information have compounded the problem. Efforts are needed to reform the South's intelligence capacities, principally by depoliticising its agencies and ensuring adequate legislative and judicial oversight. Lawmakers and bureaucrats also need to fulfil their responsibilities to protect classified information and refrain from leaking sensitive intelligence for short-term personal political gains.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Sinai Peninsula

477. Before "DarkSeoul" Becomes "DestroySeoul"

Author:
Ye Ra Kim
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Growing dependence on ever evolving information technology and continuous occurrence of cyber- attacks against nations demonstrate the need for solid security strategy in cyberspace. South Korea, a country keen to explore benefits brought by the Internet, has suffered a heavy blow from a series of North Korea's cyber-attacks in the past. This paper analyzes the 2013 March 20 cyber-attack against South Korea in detail and sheds light on the fast developing cyber capabilities of North Korea. The severity of the March 20 attack which simultaneously targeted major banks and broadcasters in the country spread panic through South Korea. The malware used in the attack was later nicknamed "DarkSeoul" because of the repetitive use of the term in the malware programming source. The attack illustrates the changing nature of the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, reflecting the need for a new concept of national security in which cyberforce plays a critical role.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

478. The impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia's security

Author:
Patrick Nopens
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
ISAF's withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or "dingwei". Russia's Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China's dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

479. ASEAN Food Security: Towards a More Comprehensive Framework

Author:
Barry Desker, Mely Caballero-Anthony, and Paul Teng
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This Policy Brief is based on the Issues Paper on ASEAN Food Security: Towards a More Comprehensive Framework. The key message is that food security is a priority agenda for the AEC, and the issues to be addressed are: (1) current impediments to agricultural trade and food production; (2) standardisation mechanisms and regulatory frameworks; (3) disjunctions between regional arrangements and domestic policies; (4) public-private partnerships; and (5) crucial indicators for food security robustness.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, and Farming
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

480. Extremism as Mainstream: Implications for Women, Development & Security in the MENA/Asia Region

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
In 2013, ICAN, in partnership with the MIT Center for International Studies and the Association for Women’s Rights in Development (AWID), hosted a two-day roundtable to better understand rising religious extremism from a gendered and grounds-up perspective, highlighting the essential yet often overlooked implications for women and the efforts of civil society on the ground. The meeting included civil society practitioners, scholars and journalists with expertise from Canada, Pakistan, Malaysia, Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, the United States, and Iran. The roundtable addressed a range of questions. The statements and perspectives included here reflect views shared during the roundtable, and related research and analysis by ICAN. While this brief cannot do justice to the depth and complexity of the discussions, it is intended as a catalyst to widen the space for discussion, research, policy and practice among international and national level scholars and practitioners.
Topic:
Security, Development, Violent Extremism, and Women
Political Geography:
Middle East, Asia, and North Africa