Political Geography: Asia / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Economics

201. The Networking Strategy of Contemporary Chinese Diplomacy

Author:: Jai Chul Heo
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: China is actively building Network Power in economic and traditional security and non-traditional security areas, while in some cases maximizing its own interests by using the Network Power already formed. In particular, China is building Collective Power at a rapid pace in significant areas. China also actively participated in existing networks and established Positional Power by preoccupying important positions. However, China’s Network Power still seems to have a long way to go in terms of Programming Power to build new systems, unlike Collective or Positional Power. What is notable in the process of analyzing China’s Network Power is that competition between the U.S. and China is fierce over Network Power.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

202. Belt and Road Initiatives: China and South Korea's Economic Ties with South Asia and Nepal

Author:: Bama Dev Sigdel
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The main objective of this article is to assess the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in terms of economic interrelations between Asian countries mainly China, Korea, India and Nepal. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the most ambitious economic strategies in modern times that alters the economic, political and social relationship between Eastern and Western societies. It not only improves transport networks and facilitates trade, but also raises GDP of many economies. For China, BRI manifests its intention to become the next global power through bigger market access and economic opportunities. Although South Asia is less developed economically, it has high strategic utility for the BRI, which has drawn attention from China to deepen its relations in the region. On the other hand, South Korea has also emerged as a soft power in Asia. It has been playing a significant role in Asia by contributing the majority of its aid, i.e., 35 per cent in Asian economies and a major share of its FDI, i.e., 34.1 per cent. With the rapidly increasing growth of South Korea, it also has a growing relationship with ASEAN and other South Asian economies such as India to reduce its dependence on traditional trade allies. Moreover, for least developed economies like Nepal, the BRI can bring improved infrastructure, needed technology, managerial talents and greater connectivity to the world. South Korea can yield higher benefits through its relation with South Asia and especially Nepal through expansion of export and market access, access to cheap workable manpower to cope with its rising aging population, and less dependence on traditional allies through its investment in South Asian region.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Nepal

203. North Korean Phone Money: Airtime Transfers as a Precursor to Mobile Payment System

Author:: Yonho Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: More than one in five North Koreans have cell phones, and increasingly rely on them to conduct financial transactions. Many of these transactions involve trading cell phone airtime, or “phone money,” for goods and services, and even for offering bribes. This report examines the potential for airtime trading to evolve into a formal mobile money system, which could enhance market activity and stability while providing opportunities for the country to engage with the international community.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

204. China’s Impact on Conflict Dynamics in the Red Sea Arena

Author:: USIP China-Red Sea Arena Senior Study Group
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Red Sea arena—which this report defines as the eastern and western shores of the Red Sea, from the Arabian Peninsula to Egypt and the Horn of Africa, and the strategic waterways that run between, including the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal—has long been a center of political turbulence, regional rivalries, and geopolitical interest. Historic political transitions currently underway in Sudan and Ethiopia, burgeoning economic investments amid fragility and debt in the Horn, continued conflict and humanitarian crisis in Yemen, Middle Eastern rivalries and their impact on regional conflict dynamics, and the growing presence of China have further heightened geopolitical interest in this arena. This report focuses on China’s influence and activities in the region and its relationships with twelve Red Sea arena states: Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Red Sea

205. Myanmar’s Casino Cities: The Role of China and Transnational Criminal Networks

Author:: Jason Tower and Priscilla Clapp
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Seeking to profit from China's lucrative but illegal gambling market, a shady web of actors has begun building resort cities in Myanmar’s Karen State to cater to Chinese gamblers. This report casts light on the actors behind Myanmar’s illegal gambling sector, their linkages to Chinese government entities and to Myanmar's armed groups and military, and how their actions could upend Myanmar’s prospects for peace.
Topic:: Crime, Economics, Transnational Actors, Gambling, and Peace
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

206. Strategic Implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Author:: James Schwemlein
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Great power politics is resurgent in South Asia today. China’s growing military ambition in the region is matched in financial terms by its Belt and Road Initiative, the largest and most advanced component of which is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. What remains unclear is how the United States should navigate the new dynamic. This report, which is based on research and consultations with experts worldwide, addresses the question of how the India-Pakistan rivalry will play into the emerging great power competition.
Topic:: Economics, Power Politics, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

207. China, 5G, and Dominance of the Global “Infosphere”

Author:: WIlliam Schneider
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Modern consumer society has rapidly evolved from domination by “things” to domination by information. Once upon a time, for example, a car was an object for personal transportation in which anything more than basic information about speed and fuel level came from and through the driver. Now, the automobile itself provides and processes information with which drivers interact at a much richer level. Back-up cameras, blind spot and lane drift warning lights, hands-free wireless telephony, and GPS have transformed the driving experience fundamentally, even ahead of the truly revolutionary era of self-driving cars. A large and growing fraction of the world’s day-to-day life of individuals, objects, and institutions will be indelibly stored with an electronic “footprint.” The intelligence value of this information from a national security perspective exclusively accessed through a modern communications system dominated by China – 5G – is immense and profoundly threatening. The new dominance of information is simultaneously bewildering and promising. Moreover, as rapid as the pace of development has been over the past decade, it will soon quicken—with broad implications for almost every aspect of human life. An important aspect of this shift has been the convergence of rapidly developing and mutually reinforcing technologies into an infosphere that will incorporate almost all information-based communications and data services in the global information infrastructure. Not coincidentally, an integrated infosphere meets aspirations held by the People’s Republic of China to dominate and control the global information infrastructure. Beijing’s investments in 5G reflect an understanding that this technology is the gateway to control the world’s information infrastructure and growing realm of 5G-dependent technologies. A Chinese-dominated infosphere is, in fact, the “digital road” component of its Belt-and-Road-Infrastructure (BRI). While U.S. policymakers have yet to fully grasp the implications of this emerging infosphere, the components below reflect the enabling dimensions that support China’s effort to dominate the global information infrastructure.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Internet, 5G, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

208. The Cornerstone and the Linchpin: Securing America’s Northeast Asian Alliances

Author:: Patrick M. Cronin
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: During an era in which strategic gravity is shifting to Asia, the United States cannot be careless in tending to its alliances with Japan and South Korea (the Republic of Korea, or ROK). The three countries face persistent threats from North Korea and from China’s semi-transparent bid for regional hegemony. Meanwhile, rocky relations between Tokyo and Seoul are jeopardizing vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. The latest disagreement between America’s premier allies raises new questions about alliance strategy, commitment, and burden-sharing. These fissures have become exacerbated as the U.S. pressures allies to increase their contributions to regional security and reciprocal trade. [...] This report seeks to explain why the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliance are still a vital means of achieving overlapping strategic interests. At the same time, it also argues that keeping these alliances fit for purpose requires radical change rather than business as usual. Both a rapidly changing security environment and growing intra-alliance squabbling pose dangers that require U.S. leadership. This report concludes with specific ideas for advancing bilateral and trilateral cooperation in the coming months and years, without trying to achieve too much too quickly.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

209. Words and Their Silos: Commercial, Governmental, and Academic Support for Japanese Literature and Writing Overseas

Author:: Anne McKnight
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This paper connects in a preliminary way realms of analysis and data regarding practices of disseminating Japanese literature and writing translated in English and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)–located languages since about 2000. The assumption is that translations from different languages have been consistently silo’ed – separated and allowed to accumulate and dynamically evolve. I outline a history of the de-linking of ‘writing’ from ‘literature’ as well as language study itself, which has led to both a withdrawal and an explosion of funding since about 1990. I note secondary effects of re-concentration in English and European languages, a flourishing of small-press activity and writing on food (Jonathan Gold) and self-help (Kondo Marie), and a focus on the ‘authorised translator’ model in both English and ASEAN languages following a tendency to standardise copyright law. Second, I introduce some histories and distinctive practices that could model support for translators. Last, I discuss economies of both money and prestige in different practices, and offer some suggestions based on interviews with an eye to supporting translators so that all languages have a hand in creative practice, and English-language–based translators can collaborate with translators in other languages.
Topic:: Economics, Culture, Literature, and Language
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

210. Grading China's Belt and Road

Author:: Daniel Kliman, Rush Doshi, Kristine Lee, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Since its launch in 2013, what China calls “One Belt, One Road” has emerged as the corner-stone of Beijing’s economic statecraft. Under the umbrella of the Belt and Road, Beijing seeks to promote a more connected world brought together by a web of Chinese-funded physical and digital infrastructure. The infrastructure needs in Asia and beyond are significant, but the Belt and Road is more than just an economic initiative; it is a central tool for advancing China’s geo-political ambitions. Through the economic activities bundled under the Belt and Road, Beijing is pursuing a vision of the 21st century defined by great power spheres of influence, state-directed economic interactions, and creeping authoritarianism. As Beijing prepares to host the second Belt and Road Forum in late April 2019, countries that once welcomed Chinese investment have become increasingly vocal about the downsides. This report is intended to serve as a resource for governments, corporations, journalists, and civil society groups now re-evaluating the costs and benefits of Belt and Road projects. Building on previous research by the Center for a New American Security and other institutions,2 this report provides a high-level overview of the primary challenges associated with China’s Belt and Road. It explores these challenges in the context of 10 cases that have received little high-profile attention and identifies future concerns generated by the Belt and Road’s growing digital focus. Lastly, the report puts forward a checklist for evaluating future infrastructure projects involving China.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Infrastructure, Authoritarianism, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

211. People’s Republic of the United Nations: China’s Emerging Revisionism in International Organizations

Author:: Kristine Lee and Alexander Sullivan
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: China is increasingly using its economic, political, and institutional power to change the global governance system from within. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under President Xi Jinping has become more proactive in injecting its ideological concepts into international statements of consensus and harnessing the programmatic dimensions of global governance to advance its own foreign policy strategies, such as “One Belt, One Road.”1 These efforts demand the attention of the United States, its allies and partners, and civil society. If unchecked, they will hasten the export of some of the most harmful aspects of China’s political system, including corruption, mass surveillance, and the repression of individual and collective rights. This report examines China’s approach to seven organs and functions of the United Nations (U.N.): the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the Human Rights Council, Peacekeeping Operations, Accreditation for Non-Governmental Organizations, the International Telecommunication Union, UNESCO, and the Office of Drugs and Crime.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, Politics, United Nations, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

212. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Geo-political Implications, Regional Constraints and Benefits of CPEC

Author:: Umar Farooq and Asma Shakir Khawaja
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The article is intended to find out the geopolitical implications, regional constraints and benefits of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Researcher reviewed both published research articles and books to find out geopolitical implication, regional constraints and benefits of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. For this purpose, researcher also reviewed newspapers articles and published reports by government and non-governmental stakeholders working on CPEC. Review of the articles and reports indicated that CPEC had enormous benefits not only for China and Pakistan but also for the whole region. But different internal and external stakeholders are not in favor of successful completion of this project. Extremism, sense of deprivation, lack of political consensus, political instability are some of the internal constraints. On the other hand, Afghanistan, India, Iran, UAE and USA are posing constraints to halt the successful completion of CPEC.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Iran, South Asia, India, Asia, Punjab, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America

213. China’s Territorial Claim at South China Sea: A Strategic Competition with USA and its Implications

Author:: Kanwal Hayat and Rehana Saeed Hashmi
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China claims South China Sea as its sovereign domain where it possesses the right to intervene militarily and economically. However, USA considers South China Sea as a common global passage where rule of law and freedom of navigation should prevail.These diverging viewpoints coexist in a wobbly peace environment where both US and China want their own version of international law to be applied and have occasionally resorted to minor armed conflicts over this issue. Every state claiming authority over South China Sea is willing to use coercion in order to get what they want, however, the extent of how far they are willing to go is not clear. This is resulting in a show of gunboat diplomacy involving maritime force of influential states that strives to manipulate the policy makers of the relevant nations (Costlow, 2012). The paper will focus on the situation in the South China Sea. South China Sea is not only claimed by China but various other Asian nations. Does this territorial strife possess the power to turn the region into a war zone? Being one of the most active trade routes in the world having complicated geography and the diverging regional and international interests makes it very sensitive area. China being the emerging economic giant gives competition to the USA in many spheres. Although America has no territorial claim in the South China Sea, it has strategic and economic interests. Where China wants a complete hegemonic control of the area, USA wants to find a way where free unchecked trade could be the future for all.Accompanied with numerous other South Asian nations claiming various portions of the region, a constant tension exists in the region.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Oceans

214. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): A MultiDimensional Plan 2017-2030 and Its Characteristics

Author:: A. Z. Hilali
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a set of projects under China‟s Belt and Road initiative, marks a new era of economic ties in a bilateral relationship between the two traditional friends. The multi-dimensional project will not only reform Pakistan economy but it will serve for people‟s prosperity and will help to revive the country economy of both countries. The visions of project partners are clear and the goals of the short term, mid-term and long-term plans of CPEC have been identified. So, the CPEC is not just a transit route for China and Pakistan‟s exports but it will transform Pakistan‟s economy and overcome its problems such as unemployment, energy, underdevelopment, and overall external economic dependency by building capacity in all necessary sectors. Therefore, CPEC could promote economic development and growth which will open new avenues and investment to the country which is based on shared partnership of cooperation, mutual benefits and sustainability. Thus, the CPEC is a grand porgramme and will deliver the economic gains to both China-Pakistan and it can be executed more efficiently and in a balanced way to serve the interests of both the countries. The project of CPEC is also important to China‟s energy and strategic security with reference to South China Sea and other regional and global players. Thus, CPEC could bring economic avenues to Pakistan and can improve regional economic and trade activities for greater development and prosperity. It has perceived that the project will not only foster socio-economic development but it will also reduce the level of political humidity and will be source of peace and harmony between the traditional adversaries. It has also assumed that regional economic integration through CPEC could be a harbinger to resolve the political differences by economic cooperation and regional economic connection could make 21st century the Asian century setting aside the perennial political issues to start a new beginning. Thus, in a longer perspective the CPEC can foster an economic community in the entire region of Asia and beyond if its vision is materialized in its true sense. The time will prove that the CPEC reap its fruits and will be advantages for not only Pakistan and China but for the entire region.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Power Politics, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, and Punjab

215. From the EMS to the EMU and...to China

Author:: Joseph Halevi
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a process that separated monetary from fiscal policies by giving priority to the centralization of the former. Instead of repeating the well known critiques levelled against the EMU – for which readers are referred to the unsurpassed treatment by Stiglitz, the essay highlights the splintering of Europe in the way in which it has unfolded during the 1990s and in the first decade of the present millennium. In particular the early economic and political origins of the terminal crisis of Italy are located between the late 1980s and the 1990s. France is shown to belong increasingly to the so-called European periphery by virtue of a weakening industrial structure and persistent balance of payments deficits. The paper argues that France regains its central role by political means and through its weight as an active nuclear military power centered on maintaining its imperial interests and posture especially in Africa. The first decade of the present millennium is portrayed as the period in which a distinct German economic area had been formed in the midst of Europe with a strong drive to the east with an increasingly powerful gravitational pull towards the People’s Republic of China.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Political Economy, History, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, Asia, Germany, and Global Focus

216. Labor Laws and Manufacturing Performance in India: How Priors Trump Evidence and Progress Gets Stalled

Author:: Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Strong labor protections for ordinary workers are often portrayed as a ‘luxury developing countries cannot afford’. No study has been more influential in propagating this perversity trope in the context of the Indian economy than the QJE article of Besley and Burgess (2004). Their article provides econometric evidence that pro-worker regulation resulted in lower output, employment, investment and productivity in India’s registered manufacturing sector. This paper reviews existing critiques of Besley and Burgess (2004), which highlight conceptual and measurement errors and uncover econometric weaknesses. The paper takes a step beyond these: it reports a failure to replicate Besley and Burgess’ findings and demonstrate the nonrobustness of their results. My deconstruction is not only about the econometrics, however. I show that Besley and Burgess’ findings are not just inconsistent with their theoretical priors, but also internally contradictory and empirically implausible, taxing any person’s capacity for belief. The paper, written by two ‘useful economists’, exhibits a gratuitous empiricism in which priors trump evidence. On all counts, it fails the test of being useful to the purpose of ‘evidence-based’ public policy advice.mp Evidence and Progress Gets Stalled
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:: India and Asia

217. Demand-Driven Youth Training Programs: Experimental Evidence from Mongolia

Author:: José Galdo, Bayarmaa Dalkhjavd, Altantsetseg Batchuluun, Soyolmaa Batbekh, and Maria Laura Alzúa
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Because of its high incidence and potential threat to social cohesion, youth unemployment is a global concern. This study uses a randomized controlled trial to analyze the effectiveness of a demand-driven vocational training program for disadvantaged youth in Mongolia. Mongolia, a transitional country whose economic structure shifted from a communist, centrally planned economy to a free-market economy over a relatively short period, offers a new setting in which to test the effectiveness of standard active labor market policies. This study reports positive and statistically significant short-term effects of vocational training on monthly earnings, skills matching, and self-employment. Substantial heterogeneity emerges as relatively older, richer, and better-educated individuals drive these positive effects. A second intervention that randomly assigns participants to receive repetitive weekly newsletters with information on market returns to vocational training shows positive impacts on the length of exposure to and successful completion of the program. These positive effects, however, are only observed at the intensive margin and do not lead to higher employment or earnings outcomes.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

218. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and Its Implications for U.S.-ASEAN Economic Governance Architecture

Author:: Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: During his visit to Asia in November 2017, President Donald Trump announced his vision of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” as the U.S. approach to the region. The Department of State unveiled in detail the economic elements of the Indo-Pacific strategy in April 2018. These economic policies were reiterated by Vice President Mike Pence at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Papua New Guinea in November 2018. For instance, Pence maintained that Washington plans to “make bilateral trade agreements with any Indo-Pacific nation that wants to be our partner and that will abide by the principles of fair and reciprocal trade,” promote private sector investment, and assist regional states on sustainable infrastructure development. On December 31, Trump signed into law the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) passed by the U.S. Congress earlier that month. ARIA further advances the strategy by mandating the executive branch to “develop a long-term strategic vision and a comprehensive, multifaceted, and principled United States policy for the Indo-Pacific region.” Moreover, the text authorizes $1.5 billion to “the Department of State, United States Agency for International Development [USAID], and, as appropriate, the Department of Defense . . . for each of the fiscal years 2019 through 2023, which shall be used” to achieve several objectives including ensuring “the regulatory environments for trade, infrastructure, and investment in partner countries are transparent, open, and free of corruption.” Against this backdrop, this chapter examines the effects of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy on the future of U.S.-ASEAN economic governance architecture. “Strategy” refers to “the collection of plans and policies that comprise the state’s deliberate effort to harness political, military, diplomatic, and economic tools together to advance that state’s national interest.” Such a study is warranted for a few reasons. First, the jury is still out on the degree to which this strategy would align or clash with different approaches and policies supported by Southeast Asian governments. Clashes of ideas and policies can result in not only failed implementation of the U.S. strategy but also competing economic initiatives which could undermine the future of U.S.-ASEAN trade and investment ties. Therefore, this research is aimed at: 1) assessing how the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy would interact with Southeast Asian nations’ policies to shape the future development of regional economic architectures, and 2) forging policy recommendations for the U.S. and ASEAN governments on how they could jointly pursue regional economic institution-building. The questions I explore include: 1) What are the economic components of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy? 2) How will this strategy and Southeast Asian countries’ economic agendas/policies interact to shape the future advancement of regional economic architecture? and 3) What should American and ASEAN governments do to foster cooperation and lessen conflict among their different policies regarding economic regionalism? The chapter is organized as follows. The next part discusses the economic components of the Indo-Pacific strategy under the Trump administration. The second section examines the interactions between this strategy and the economic agendas of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to highlight the areas of complementarities and clashes. The last section provides policy recommendations for American and Southeast Asian governments to augment synergies and ameliorate clashes among their policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Governance, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

219. Redefining U.S.-Japan Trade Relations Under Trump

Author:: Shihoko Goto
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Trump administration has had no qualms about going against conventional U.S. policy norms and long-established rules of engagement. Thinking outside of the box has not been without its merits; it has certainly led to much-needed reassessment of practices that could benefit from change. The greatest risk of such change, however, is when policy shifts are sudden, unexpected, and unexplained, especially with long-established partner nations. In the two years since President Donald Trump took office, the single biggest challenge for key U.S. allies has been to scramble to adapt to those drastic changes. That, in turn, has led them to reexamine and even alter their own longer-term strategies. For Japan, the pressure to adapt to such changes has been particularly intense, given its continued dependence on the United States for security in an increasingly unstable region on the one hand, and its reliance on robust trade relations with the world’s largest economy on the other. At the midway point of the Trump administration, Japan has actually emerged stronger over the past two years, at least on the trade front. Against the odds and defying expectations, it has succeeded in strengthening its position as a stabilizing force amid ongoing uncertainties in global trade rules. Yet, its success so far does not mean that the latter half of Trump’s tenure will be smooth sailing for Tokyo. In fact, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s balancing act of managing robust relations with the United States while ensuring Japan’s own economic interests may prove to be more difficult. The challenge is to further the gains it has made as an economic stabilizer, even as that outcome will redefine its broader role as a champion of the liberal international order, which has been put on shakier ground.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and United States of America

220. The Trump Economic Impact on East Asia after Two Years: The Case of South Korea

Author:: Yoon Yeo-joon
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The U.S.-South Korea relationship has traditionally been characterized as a security alliance, meeting the interests of both countries for a stable Korean Peninsula. Economically, Korea was a major recipient of U.S. development assistance after the Korean War. The U.S. also provided non-reciprocal preferential trade treatment, which played an important role in Korea’s economic development. After Korea’s unprecedented economic development, the economic relationship between the two countries progressed from mere donor-recipient relations. The U.S.-Korea economic partnership culminated in the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement (KORUS FTA), which came into effect in 2012. During the past 70 years, the U.S. has become the second most important export destination and the third most important importer for Korea. Korea has also risen to be the sixth largest trading partner for the U.S. During these years, Korea has also benefited from common values shared with the U.S., such as democracy, rule of law, and an open and free market economy. Two years into the Trump administration, the U.S.-Korea economic relationship is facing another turning point. Trump is a game changer, trying to alter the global trading system and its relation to China. Korea has been only partially affected by his grand scheme so far. However, Trump specifically blamed the KORUS FTA as a major contributing factor to the U.S.’ huge trade deficit and domestic job losses in manufacturing. As a result, the KORUS FTA was amended. Various protectionist measures, such as Section 201 tariffs on washing machines and solar panels as well as Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, could have a substantial impact on Korea. Rising protectionism in the U.S. is a grave concern for Korea considering the significance of the U.S. to the Korean economy. This chapter explores U.S.-Korea economic relations two years into the Trump administration—too short a time to make definitive statements such as whether the relationship has deteriorated or not. The chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the economic relations between Korea and the U.S., focusing on trade and investment. Section 3 covers the KORUS FTA renegotiations, which were recently settled. It includes what was decided and the implications for the Korean economy. Section 4 summarizes the protectionist measures that the Trump administration has imposed and how these measures would impact Korea, adding a simple empirical analysis that investigates whether the U.S. trade balance with Korea improved over the two years. Section 5 concludes the chapter.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

221. U.S.-China Economic Relations Under the Trump Administration at the 2-Year Mark

Author:: Peter Harrell
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Since entering office in 2017, President Trump has upended longstanding tenets of U.S. trade policy and launched the most aggressive set of new U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions since at least the Reagan administration in the 1980s. Actions include renegotiating the U.S.-Korea FTA (KORUS) and NAFTA, using “Section 232” of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to impose tariffs on most steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. in a bid to support U.S. smelters, using “Section 301” of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs on approximately half of U.S. imports from China, and threatening to use Section 232 to impose tariffs reportedly up to 25% on U.S. imports of automobiles. The administration’s aggressive stance on trade has upended diplomatic relationships and prompted multinational companies to re-consider aspects of their global supply chains. It has also brought retaliation, including Chinese tariffs on most Chinese imports of U.S. goods. European countries and other U.S. allies affected by Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs have also retaliated with tariffs of their own against imports of U.S. goods, with many of the retaliatory tariffs targeting perceived politically important constituencies in the U.S., such as U.S. whisky distillers, who are heavily concentrated in the home state of Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. But Trump’s aggressive trade policies also began to deliver some successes in 2018, including a successful renegotiation of NAFTA, now renamed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), a renegotiated Korea-U.S. FTA, and at least some willingness by European and Japanese officials to discuss greater market access for U.S. products. While many major U.S. importers and trade associations have complained about the tariffs, the tariffs continue to draw support from several of the key constituency groups that they are intended to assist, such as the U.S. steel industry. While U.S. tariffs against imports from allies are seemingly driven largely by the Trump administration’s general protectionist bent, Trump’s trade actions against China reflect a broader set of concerns that is more widely supported by members of the United States congress and American experts outside of government. These include both longstanding U.S. concerns over Chinese trade practices and market access barriers, and growing U.S. geopolitical competition with China—what the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, released in December 2017, refers to as the return of “great power competition.” These geopolitical concerns have been central to the administration’s recent aggressive efforts to block the deployment of Huawei telecommunications technologies in new “5G” mobile communications networks around the world, and in the administration’s increasingly vociferous opposition to China’s “Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI). And because of increased U.S.-China geopolitical competition, U.S. use of targeted trade controls, investment restrictions, potential targeted sanctions, and other measures against China, will likely continue even if, as is widely expected, Trump and President Xi reach a broad agreement on many trade issues in the coming months and reduce some of the tariffs that are currently in place.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

222. China’s 2020 Economic Agenda: Maintaining Stability Amid Flux

Author:: Yun Jiang and Adam Ni
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: China’s top annual economic policy gathering, the Central Economic Work Conference (中央经济工作会议, Zhongyang jingji gongzuo huiyi), or CEWC, was held between December 10 and 12 in Beijing. This year’s CEWC focused on the theme of “achieving developmental progress on the basis of first ensuring stability” (稳字当头, 稳中求进 / wen zi dangtou, wen zhong qiu jin) (Xinhua, December 12)—thereby continuing a theme stressed during the meeting of the National People’s Congress in March of this year (China Brief, March 22). Given increasing economic risks and political challenges, both domestic and international, the party-state’s focus on the supremacy of stability is unsurprising. Importantly, the CEWC reiterates that the goal of achieving a “moderately prosperous society” (小康社会, xiaokang shehui) by the end of 2020 is “a priority among priorities” (重中之重, zhong zhong zhi zhong). This article examines the key outcomes of the 2019 CEWC, which set the overall direction of China’s economic policy agenda for 2020. In doing so, we highlight a central underlying tension: on the one hand, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to keep a steady ship at a time of economic and strategic flux; on the other, maintaining strong economic growth requires ambitious developmental goals and economic reform imperatives, which have added pressure for bold policy actions. How well Chinese policymakers can navigate this tension in 2020 has important ramifications for both China’s national development and the CCP’s political legitimacy.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, Legitimacy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China and Asia

223. What North Korea’s Push for Economic Development Means for Human Rights

Author:: Bradley O. Babson
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since his first-annual New Year’s speech in 2012 setting North Korea’s policy priorities, Kim Jong Un has emphasized his commitment to economic development, notably promising his people that they will never have to tighten their belts again. The Byunjin policy of equally prioritizing economic development and security through nuclear and missile programs reflects Kim’s desire to assure regime stability by delivering broad-based economic development while establishing a security environment that deters external threats and potential domestic unrest. While United States policy has used sanctions and other pressures to stymie Kim’s ambitions, the Kim regime has nonetheless modestly furthered economic development and significantly advanced security through its nuclear and missile testing programs.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, Human Rights, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

224. East Asia's Decoupling

Author:: Roland Rajah
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: East Asia is no longer reliant on US or Western markets to fuel its growth, giving it more room to manage amid global trade tensions. Heightened global trade tensions and the US desire to ‘decouple’ from the Chinese economy for national security reasons pose significant risks to East Asia’s export-driven growth model. However, the latest data suggests East Asia is no longer so dependent on exporting to the West, with China in particular eclipsing the United States as the leading source of ‘final demand’ for the rest of the region’s exports. This gives East Asia much greater room to manoeuvre, as regional integration is now a more viable platform for growth while US decoupling efforts will likely struggle to find traction in the region.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, and Exports
Political Geography:: China, East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

225. Global E-Commerce Talks Stumble on Data Issues, Privacy, and More

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyaou (Lucy) Lu
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In early 2019, several important members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) submitted noteworthy proposals in a realm of international commerce that has evolved faster than rules to govern it: e-commerce or digital trade. While countries agree on less controversial subjects like banning unsolicited commercial electronic messages, the three leading WTO members—China, the European Union, and the United States—have big differences in their approaches to more challenging issues: data flows, data localization, privacy invasions by data collectors, transfer of source code, imposition of customs duties and internet taxes, and internet censorship. Their differing viewpoints lead Hufbauer and Lu to conclude that the prospect of reaching a high-level WTO e-commerce agreement is not promising. To reach an agreement, either most of the contentious issues must be dropped or the number of participating countries must be sharply reduced. A WTO accord, even of low ambition, would have value if only to establish basic digital norms on matters such as banning unsolicited commercial messages and protecting online consumers from fraudulent practices. A more ambitious accord covering the controversial issues should be negotiated in bilateral and/or plurilateral/regional pacts rather than in the WTO.
Topic:: Economics, World Trade Organization, Finance, Privacy, and Data
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and European Union

226. WTO'ing a Resolution to the China Subsidy Problem

Author:: Chad P. Bown and Jennifer A. Hillman
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The United States, the European Union, and Japan have begun a trilateral process to confront the Chinese economic model, including its use of industrial subsidies and deployment of state-owned enterprises. This paper seeks to identify the main areas of tension and to assess the legal-economic challenges to constructing new rules to address the underlying conflict. It first provides a brief history of subsidy disciplines in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the World Trade Organization (WTO) predating any concerns introduced by China. It then describes contemporary economic problems with China’s approach to subsidies, their impact, and the apparent ineffectiveness of the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures to address them. Finally, it calls for increased efforts to measure and pinpoint the source of the problems—in a manner analogous to how the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development took on agricultural subsidies in the 1980s—before providing a legal-economic assessment of proposals for reforms to notifications, evidence, remedies, enforcement, and the definition of a subsidy.
Topic:: Economics, World Trade Organization, Tariffs, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and European Union

227. US-China Trade War: Both Countries Lose, World Markets Adjust, Others Gain

Author:: Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The terms of the US-China trade war change often, but the tariff escalations have inflicted documented economic damage on both countries. Expanding the conflict will only increase the damage and reverberate across the world economy. This Policy Brief uses a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy to analyze three scenarios that could unfold in coming months. The first scenario is the current situation (as of June 2019). Two additional scenarios assume implementation of proposed US tariffs and Chinese responses. The models project the situation after the two countries and the rest of the world adjust across a time horizon of three to five years. For the United States, higher tariffs raise prices and reduce demand for consumers and producers. For China, the tariffs raise the prices of consumer goods but have less direct impact on producers, because the Chinese have exempted some intermediate inputs. US exports and imports decline under all three scenarios. But China can successfully divert its exports away from the United States and escape maximum economic damage.
Topic:: Economics, Global Markets, Finance, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

228. Chinese Investments in the US and EU Are Declining—for Similar Reasons

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For years China has been one of the world’s most rapidly growing sources of outward foreign direct investment. Since peaking in 2016, however, Chinese outward investments, primarily to the United States but also the European Union, have declined dramatically, especially in response to changes in China’s domestic rules on capital outflows and in the face of rising nationalism in the United States. Concerns about growing Chinese influence in other economies, the ascendant role of an authoritarian government in Beijing, and the possible security implications of Chinese dominance in the high-technology sector have put Chinese outward investments under intense international scrutiny. This Policy Brief analyzes the most recent trends in Chinese investments in the United States and the European Union and reviews recent political and regulatory changes both have adopted toward Chinese inward investments. It also explores the emerging transatlantic difference in the regulatory response to the Chinese information technology firm Huawei. Concerned about national security and as part of the ongoing broader trade friction with China, the United States has cracked down far harder on the company than the European Union.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

229. Fiscal Policy Options for Japan

Author:: Olivier Blanchard and Takashi Tashiro
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For many years, the Japanese government has promised an eventual return to primary budget surpluses, but it has not delivered on these promises. Its latest goal is to return to primary balance by 2025. Blanchard and Tashiro, however, argue that, in the current economic environment in Japan, primary deficits may be needed for a long time, because they may be the best tool to sustain demand and output, alleviate the burden on monetary policy, and increase future output. What primary deficits are used for, however, is equally important, and the Japanese government should put them to better use. The authors recommend that, given Japan’s aging population, the government should spend on measures aimed at increasing fertility—and by implication population and output growth—which are likely to more than pay for themselves.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

230. The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict after 40 Years of Special Protection

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2018, the United States suddenly increased tariffs on nearly 50 percent of its imports from China. China immediately retaliated with tariffs on more than 70 percent of imports from the United States. This paper assesses what happened in 2018 and attempts to explain why. It first constructs a new measure of special tariff protection to put the sheer scope and coverage of the 2018 actions into historical context. It then uses the lens provided by the 2018 special tariffs to explain the key sources of economic and policy friction between the two countries. This includes whether China’s state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies, as well as China’s development strategy and system of forcibly acquiring foreign technology, were imposing increasingly large costs on trading partners. Finally, it also examines whether the US strategy to provoke a crisis—which may result in a severely weakened World Trade Organization—was deliberate and out of frustration with the institution itself.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Donald Trump, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

231. Economic Relations between Russia and South Korea in the New Northern Policy

Author:: Liudmila Zakharova
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The New Northern Policy, proclaimed by the South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Vladivostok in September 2017, is designed to boost economic cooperation between Russia and South Korea. However, two years after a special presidential committee was created to plan and coordinate joint economic efforts, few results have been achieved. Bilateral trade has continued to increase with limited change to its structure: Russia mostly sends its mineral resources to South Korea and receives industrial products in return. New ROK investment in the Russian Far East has yet to occur, despite South Korea’s efforts to assist its businesses in finding profitable Russian projects. Seoul tried to convince Moscow that concluding a free trade agreement in the near future is necessary for intensified cooperation, but Russia prefers a more gradual approach to trade liberalization. InterKorean rapprochement in 2018 laid a foundation for further progress in the implementation of multilateral economic projects involving Russia if the international sanctions against North Korea were to be eased. Therefore, bilateral relations between Russia and the ROK can also be viewed from the perspective of promoting regional cooperation with North Korean participation.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

232. Finding an Advocate: The Role of the Private Sector in Korea-Japan Relations

Author:: Jiwon Nam and Kristin Vekasi
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Tensions between South Korea and Japan are frustratingly persistent. Despite the shared interests of both countries, such as economic development in Southeast Asia, and keeping a robust alliance with the United States, South Korea and Japan maintain a bellicose relationship because of unresolved historical misunderstandings and territorial disputes. Inconsistent diplomatic policies and lack of strong leaders have made it difficult to prevent unnecessary hostility between South Korea and Japan. Fear of losing support has prevented politicians from pursuing friendly policies towards each other. Businesspeople, too, have been reluctant to pursue friendly policies towards each other, because of preconceived risks of being targeted for backlash. An examination of economic data shows these risks are minimal, and political tensions do not affect business or consumer behavior. Current efforts from both Korean and Japanese business organizations to improve cooperation include student exchange programs, recruitment processes, and public diplomacy. We urge the business community to advocate more to improve bilateral relations. Economic relations alone are insufficient to handle the task of improving a difficult relationship; there is also a need for leadership. In South Korea-Japan relations, the business community should step in and provide that role.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Business, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, Korea, and United States of America

233. From Failed Economic Interfaces to Political Levers: Assessing China-South Korea Competition and Cooperation Scenarios on North Korean Special Economic Zones

Author:: Théo Clément
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: While North Korea has developed Special Economic Zones for several decades now, these zones have attracted little attention from foreign investors, due to a mix of lack of economic reforms in the DPRK, the tense geopolitical situation, and China’s peculiar economic engagement towards North Korea. With the denuclearization process and North-South dialogue moving forward, this situation could change as South Korea’s announced policy of economic engagement with the North could provide Pyongyang the opportunity to play Beijing against Seoul to maximize its interests and attract foreign investment in Special Economic Zones from partners keen to maintain close ties with the DPRK.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Investment, Trade, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

234. EU Trade Policy amid the China-US Clash: Caught in the Cross-Fire?

Author:: Felipe González and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's rapid rise and unique economic system and the increasingly aggressive and disruptive US trade policy are posing an unprecedented threat to the global rules-based trading and economic system. The European Union has critical interests at stake in the current escalation, even as it has so far been comparatively spared from US trade policy belligerence and China's reactions. In this context, the European Union should adopt an independent and proactive stance, building on recent efforts and going beyond them. The European Union, even more than the United States or China, has a strategic interest in the preservation of the global rules-based order embodied by the World Trade Organization (WTO). It must play a leading role in steering WTO reform and modernization, working closely with broadly aligned third countries such as Japan and other players. It should expand its outreach beyond its immediate negotiating counterparts in both the United States and China, and leading European officials at both the EU and member state levels should work at better understanding China. While strengthening its domestic policy instruments to address new challenges, such as the screening of foreign direct investment for security purposes, the European Union must also resist its own temptations of protectionism and economic nationalism. In support of these objectives, the European Union should prepare itself for difficult decisions, which may involve revising some of its current red lines in international trade negotiations. Conversely, the European Union should stand firm on principles such as refusing one-sided agreements and rejecting abusive recourse to national security arguments in trade policies. The European Parliament, in working with the European Council and the European Commission, will have a critical role to play in steering the European Union through these challenging times.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Trade Wars, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and European Union

235. Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the "First White President"

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2016, the United States elected an avowedly protectionist president. This paper uses US county-level electoral data to examine this outcome. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the reestablishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

236. The United Kingdom's Belt and Road Initiative strategy after Brexit: Background Report

Author:: Benjamin Barton
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:: As China and President Xi Jinping signature foreign policy programme, the BRI has become in a very short space of the time one of the world’s largest and most active international infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping, in a significant manner, to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development and upgrades in emerging markets – a trend that is unlikely to slow anytime time soon, especially given the initiative’s current importance to the Chinese government. For the British government (from here onwards ‘government’), although the UK is unlikely to be a prime destination for BRI projects (for now), the BRI stakes are high. Not only do BRI projects impact the economic wellbeing of a number of countries of strategic importance to the UK, but the government cannot remain passive in the emerging geopolitical context of infrastructure development and financing rivalry. In addition, in light of its relative post-Brexit geopolitical isolation, the government needs to adopt a firm and unequivocal political stance in dealing with its Chinese counterpart should the UK itself become the recipient of BRI projects.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, and Asia

237. The state of China-European Union economic relations

Author:: Uri Dadush, Marta Dominguez-Jimenez, and Tianlang Gao
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: China and the European Union have an extensive and growing economic relationship. The relationship is problematic because of the distortions caused by China’s state capitalist system and the diversity of interests within the EU’s incomplete federation. More can be done to capture the untapped trade and investment opportunities that exist between the parties. China’s size and dynamism, and its recent shift from an export-led to a domestic demand-led growth model, mean that these opportunities are likely to grow with time. As the Chinese economy matures, provided appropriate policy steps are taken, it is likely to become a less disruptive force in world markets than during its extraordinary breakout period.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, European Union, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

238. How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China’s ties with Russia, indicate that China seems to have become more of a competitor to the European Union on Russia’s market. Competition over investment and lending is more limited, but the situation could change rapidly with China and Russia giving clear signs of a stronger than ever strategic partnership.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Investment, and Exports
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

239. China’s Future Development: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:: James A. Dorn
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: 1978 has been erratic, with many interruptions along the way. The end result, however, has been eye opening: the Middle Kingdom has become the world’s largest trading nation, the second largest economy, and more than 500 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty as economic liberalization removed barriers to trade. One of the enduring lessons from China’s rise as an economic giant is that once people are given greater economic freedom, more autonomy, and stronger property rights, they will have a better chance of creating a harmonious and prosperous society (see Dorn 2019). Nevertheless, China faces major challenges to its future development. There is still no genuine rule of law that effectively limits the power of government, no independent judiciary to enforce the rights promised in the nation’s constitution, no free market for ideas that is essential for innovation and for avoiding major policy errors, no competitive political system that fosters a diversity of views, and a large state sector that stifles private initiative and breeds corruption. China’s slowing growth rate, its increasing debt burden, environmental problems, and the increasing tension in U.S.-China relations compound the challenges facing Beijing.
Topic:: Development, Economics, History, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

240. Assessing China’s Financial Reform: Changing Roles of the Repressive Financial Policies

Author:: Yiping Huang and Tingting Ge
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: When China began economic reform in 1978, it had only one financial institution, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which, at that time, served as both the central bank and a commercial bank and accounted for 93 percent of the country’s total financial assets. This was primarily because, in a centrally planned economy, transfer of funds was arranged by the state and there was little demand for financial intermediation. Once economic reform started, the authorities moved very quickly to establish a very large number of financial institutions and to create various financial markets. Forty years later, China is already an important player in the global financial system, including in the banking sector, direct investment, and bond and equity markets. However, government intervention in the financial system remains widespread and serious. The PBOC still guides commercial banks’ setting of deposit and lending rates through “window guidance,” although the final restriction on deposit rates was removed in 2015. Industry and other policies still play important roles influencing allocation of financial resources by banks and capital markets. The PBOC intervenes in the foreign exchange markets from time to time, through directly buying or selling foreign exchanges, setting the central parity, and determining the daily trading band. The regulators tightly manage cross-border capital flows, and the state still controls majority shares of most large financial institutions.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, Reform, Financial Markets, and Banks
Political Geography:: China and Asia

241. Restructuring Public Finances in Yemen

Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Even before the current conflict, Yemen’s public finances suffered from an overdependence on energy exports, one of the lowest tax collection rates in the world, and chronic budget and balance of payments deficits. The government’s consistent operating deficits were funded through domestic debt instruments – drawing investment away from the private sector – borrowing from its own central bank, and foreign loans. Meanwhile, current (or recurring) expenditures dominated government spending relative to capital investments, indicating the state’s poor track record in development initiatives.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Tax Systems, Exports, Economic Development, and Capital Controls
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

242. Inflated Beyond Fiscal Capacity: The Need to Reform the Public Sector Wage Bill

Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This policy brief addresses the issue of Yemen’s bloated public sector. Due to decades of corruption and patronage appointments, among other factors, public sector salaries were already a source of fiscal stress prior to the ongoing war. Previous efforts to downsize the public sector, notably those supported by the World Bank, produced few tangible results, as this brief outlines. During the conflict, the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the armed Houthi movement have added to the public sector payroll — particularly in the military and security apparatus — as the economy has contracted. Amid consistently large budget deficits, the inflated public sector wage bill is fiscally unsustainable and threatens to undermine economic recovery and future stability in Yemen.
Topic:: Economics, World Bank, Budget, Inflation, Public Sector, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

243. Priorities for Private Sector Recovery in Yemen: Reforming the Business and Investment Climate

Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The business and investment climate for private sector actors in Yemen has long been challenging. The current conflict has expanded and magnified these changes such that today Yemen is last or near last in a host of global business competitiveness indexes. Many businesses across the country have closed and moved their capital elsewhere, while many of those that remain open have had to make drastic cuts to their workforces. However, relative to the public sector – which has seen the near collapse of most government institutions – the private sector has shown a far greater degree of resilience. Businesses have stepped in to replace absent government services in many areas, allowing access to basic commodities and providing livelihoods for millions of Yemenis.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Economic Development, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

244. Transitional Government in Post-Conflict Yemen

Author:: Rafat Al-Akhali, Osamah Al-Rawhani, and Anthony Biswell
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This policy brief offers recommendations to maximize the effectiveness of governance in post-conflict Yemen – whatever the composition or structure of the government. It presents three case studies on government models previously introduced in Yemen, Tunisia and Lebanon after periods of instability. These case studies offer useful lessons on the challenges, risks and opportunities of forming transitional governments in post-conflict contexts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Government, Peacekeeping, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

245. The Repercussions of War on Women in the Yemeni Workforce

Author:: Hannah Patchett and Dr. Fawziah Al-Ammar
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This policy brief sheds light on how the ongoing conflict in Yemen has affected women’s participation in the workforce. It finds that the protracted conflict has, on the one hand, pushed more women into the workforce and new labor markets, in some cases into professions previously dominated by men. While some women have established new enterprises, often home-based businesses, others have engaged in poorly paid physical work in response to the economic crisis and the loss of male breadwinners. On the other hand, the war has imposed new constraints on an already low women’s participation rate. This policy brief recommends that micro-economic initiatives to bring women into the workforce must be accompanied by long-term efforts to address socio-economic structures that have historically constrained women’s access to the workforce. Interventions must be guided by local consultations with women and men from all demographics, and must promote work that is fairly paid and provides security and social protection. Quota systems could ensure that women play an active role in recovery and reconstruction efforts; women must also be engaged at all decision-making levels in peace building efforts and in post-conflict Yemen.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Women, Microeconomics, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

246. Reconstruction and Recovery in Yemen: Recommendations from the Development Champions

Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Nearly five years of conflict in Yemen have created a humanitarian catastrophe that has brought the country to the brink of famine. The economy has collapsed and fighting has ravaged the country’s infrastructure. The reconstruction and recovery of Yemen will demand rebuilding the economy, restoring state institutions and infrastructure and repairing the social fabric. As yet, no official, donor-led, comprehensive reconstruction process is underway. The Development Champions emphasize that reconstruction and recovery efforts must begin immediately, even while the conflict is ongoing. Urgent humanitarian interventions should be linked to Yemen’s long-term economic recovery. The reconstruction of Yemen should aim to transform the country, and not only to restore the status quo ante. Yemenis and local institutions must be involved in this process from the planning stages to ensure legitimacy and local ownership; ultimately, local actors will be responsible for implementing these plans. With these factors in mind, the Development Champions held in-depth discussions to develop recommendations and guidelines to ensure the reconstruction and recovery of Yemen is a comprehensive, effective process that has a long-term positive impact. This policy paper presents those recommendations. They include measures to link immediate humanitarian interventions to Yemen’s long-term economic recovery; mechanisms to address fiscal challenges and enhance social protection; guidelines to create new jobs, rebuild infrastructure and strengthen the rule of law; and strategies to enhance local governance and local inclusion in the reconstruction process.
Topic:: Economics and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

247. Economic Confidence Building Measures – Civil Servant Salaries

Author:: Mansour Ali Al Bashiri
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: In December 2018, 23 of Yemen’s leading socioeconomic experts convened in Amman during the Fourth Development Champions Forum to discuss economic confidence-building measures in the peace process in Yemen. The discussions at the Forum, which is part of the Rethinking Yemen’s Economy initiative, touched on a number of economic mechanisms that could be implemented to build confidence. These included supporting the Central Bank as an independent institution that serves all of Yemen; ensuring the deposit of public revenues in all governorates at the Central Bank headquarters in Aden; and opening ports and ensuring the free movement of goods, humanitarian aid and people between governorates. The Forum focused on the payment of salaries and pensions to all civil servants due to the critical importance of the issue; this policy brief presents the outcomes of this discussion. As a key step to simultaneously address the humanitarian crisis in Yemen and build confidence between the parties engaged in the peace process, the Development Champions recommend that the Yemeni government resumes salary payments to all civil servants working in the administrative apparatus of the state registered in the Ministry of Civil Service database of 2014 across Yemen, prioritizing payments to education and health workers. The Yemeni government should also continue to provide liquidity to guarantee the payment of pensions to all public sector retirees. Meanwhile, Ansar Allah should allow all state revenues in areas under their control to be deposited into the accounts specified by the Central Bank of Yemen temporarily headquartered in Aden, and all parties should work toward the restoration of the Central Bank as a national institution that serves all of Yemen. The Development Champions call on regional and international donors to cover any funding gap to support the payment of salaries and pensions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

248. Priorities for Government Policy in Yemen

Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This policy brief outlines recommendations for the immediate priorities of the Government of Yemen, both to achieve quick wins and to prepare the ground for medium and long-term success. These recommendations are the outcomes of in-depth discussions held during the fourth Development Champions Forum convened on December 8-11, 2018, in Amman, Jordan. They are designed to offer Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed and his cabinet a set of practical measures to help the government build on the momentum and increased visibility it achieved in the final quarter of 2018. The immediate priorities recommended by the Development Champions include steps to support the stabilization of the local currency. an area in which tangible progress has already been made. The Champions also urge the government to regularize the payment of public sector salaries and pensions. Another immediate priority for the government should be to take steps to stabilize and transform Aden, the Champions suggest, based on the shared consensus that the southern coastal city could become a model for the rest of Yemen. The Champions emphasized that developing Aden would depend on improving the level of security across the governorate. While recognizing that the government faces immediate challenges that demand attention in Aden and across the country, the Development Champions urge the government to plan and implement procedures to prepare for the country’s medium and long-term future. These strategies should address the root causes of Yemen’s socio-economic instability, and not just its symptoms. Among the most important actions to prepare for long-term priorities is the expansion of the roles and responsibilities of local government authorities, the Champions concluded. During the conflict, decision-making authority has filtered down to the local level and become far more decentralized. The government should build on this new reality to reconfigure the state and its relationship with local government authorities.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Public Sector, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

249. The Case for Kaesong: Fostering Korean Peace through Economic Ties

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Kaesong Industrial Complex, closed since 2016, was the most successful joint economic venture undertaken by North and South Korea. Reopening the manufacturing zone, with improvements to efficiency and worker protections, could help broker wider cooperation and sustain peace talks on the peninsula. What’s new? In 2016, South Korea shuttered the Kaesong Industrial Complex, breaking a modest but productive connection between the two Koreas. Crisis Group’s analysis sheds new light on the economic performance of firms operating at the Complex, demonstrating that the benefits for the South were greater than previously understood. Why does it matter? Beyond helping restart the stalled peace process, a deal to reopen the Complex in exchange for a proportionate step toward denuclearisation by North Korea could produce mutual economic benefits that help sustain South Korean support for talks and encourage Pyongyang’s commitment to peaceful relations. What should be done? As part of any deal to reopen the Complex, Seoul and Pyongyang should take steps to address problems that previously kept it from reaching its potential. The more efficiently, profitably and fairly it works, the better the Complex can help foster and maintain stable, peaceful relations between the Koreas.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

250. Insights into China’s Developing Country Status

Author:: Tao Ma
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: As the international status of China as a rising power has been growing rapidly in the past 40 years, along with remarkable achievements in economic growth, China’s developing country status has been questioned by some Western developed countries. In January 2019, the US submitted to the WTO General Council the proposal An Undifferentiated WTO: Self-Declared Development Status Risks Institutional Irrelevance (WT/GC/W/757), presenting data arguing that China and some other developing countries had advanced to such an extent that they should be limited from being eligible for special and differential treatment and should give up their developing country status. During the WTO General Council meeting at the end of February, China and other developing countries hotly debated this issue with the US. China insisted that developing countries were confronted with mounting external tensions and their legitimate rights and interests in some international organizations and agreements had been constantly challenged. Against this background, it is critical to clarify China’s ongoing status as a developing country. Only after the real divide between China and developed countries has been clarified can China’s status as a developing country be secured.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

251. Resurgent Asia: Diversity in Development

Author:: Deepak Nayyar
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In 1820, Asia accounted for two-thirds of world population and over half of world income. The subsequent decline of Asia was attributable to its integration with a world economy shaped by colonialism and driven by imperialism. By 1970, Asia was the poorest continent in the world, marginal except for its large population. Its demographic and social indicators, among the worst anywhere, epitomized its underdevelopment. A deep pessimism about Asia’s economic prospects, voiced by Gunnar Myrdal in Asian Drama, was widespread at the time.
Topic:: Economics, History, Economic Growth, and Economic Transformation
Political Geography:: Asia

252. The Economic Impact of Huawei in Japan

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Since opening its first office in Japan in 2005, Huawei has played a significant role in developing Japan's digital infrastructure. Working collaboratively with local manufacturers and innovators, the company has developed a suite of innovations that tailor technology solutions to the Japanese context. Huawei also delivers long-term benefits to Japan's productive potential, through its investment in Japanese research and development and the training it provides to its employees and the wider Japanese workforce. This report, commissioned by Huawei, seeks to quantify the company's "total economic impact" across Japan, through its direct operations and the "knock-on effects" it creates in Japanese supply chains and the wider economy. We find that in 2018, Huawei sustained a JPY 766 billion contribution to Japan's GDP, supported 46,400 Japanese jobs and generated JPY 208 billion in tax revenues.
Topic:: Economics, Tax Systems, Innovation, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

253. Global Energy in Transition: How the EU Should Navigate New Realities and Risks

Author:: Andreas Goldthau
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Global energy demand is shifting to Southeast Asia. This new trade flow is altering market power because it not only follows natural economic development, but also results from strategic trade and investment policies that promote national interests. In this context, the EU needs to account for the geo-economic side effects of the new European Green Deal.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, European Union, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

254. China’s Export Success: Due to Unfair Practices or Fair Competition?

Author:: Rolf Langhammer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Compared with previous ratings, China’s trade policy today is more positively acknowledged. Yet, China can still be criticised in particular because of its non-transparent subsidy policy, the privileged role of state-owned enterprises, the heavy hand of the state in general, the sluggish enforcement of intellectual property rights, and the prevalence of non-tariff barriers. Yet, it cannot be ignored that Chinese entrepreneurship mentality is highly developed outside state interference in world markets. Especially, in the digital economy, high motivation and a large pool of human skills act as drivers of innovations, so far mainly process innovations. The trade war with the US hurts China and is responded by China with asymmetrical retaliation. The more Chinese exports to the US in total are affected, the more costs will have to be borne by US consumers as options to shift to alternative suppliers become weaker. What President Trump would see as a “good” deal for the US is unclear. It can be thus presumed that the trade war will continue into 2020 and that it is in fact a tech war. The EU is affected as EU companies produce in China for the US market and in the US for the Chinese market. While it might gain from trade diversion effects in the short run, the negative effects on investment due to uncertainty weigh more heavily. The EU is tempted to negotiate a free trade agreement with China but rightly refuses to start negotiations before China is prepared to conclude an agreement on investment. The EU should not see China and the US on equidistance. Workable relations with the US are much more important. To conclude, China’s trade policy has improved relative to Western standards but still warrants further steps towards much less state influence. Yet, its global competiveness especially in the state-of-the-art digital economy is high and is owed to a strong entrepreneurial mentality.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Asia, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

255. State-owned Enterprises and the Trade Wars

Author:: Przemysław Kowalski
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Do state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state capitalism create unfair competition in international markets? Empirical evidence surveyed in this brief suggests that from the turn of the century, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) indeed started competing increasingly with private firms, trading across borders and establishing themselves abroad through foreign direct investment. Some SOEs benefited from government-granted advantages unavailable to their private peers. International legal disputes involving SOEs have multiplied, and discussions of new trade and investment policy initiatives aiming to discipline SOEs have emerged. However, opinions differ as to what are the best policy approaches. The OECD Guidelines on SOEs would go a long way towards maintaining an international level playing field, but these are not mandatory and therefore unevenly implemented. WTO law gives countries freedom in managing their SOEs and focuses instead on disciplining government actions which may distort competition in international markets, irrespective of their ownership status. Some recent preferential trading agreements (PTAs) have included new SOE-specific disciplines that may influence future policy developments. On-going concerns about the allegedly unfair trade practices in emerging market economies with large state sectors, most notably China, are likely to strengthen the pressure for a closer scrutiny of SOEs and a development of new national and international disciplines. Improved transparency and disclosure are likely to be a common denominator of these new initiatives.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia

256. Tensions in U.S.-Korea Economic Relations

Author:: Troy Stangarone
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Following a relatively successful period for U.S.-South Korea economic relations under the Bush and Obama administrations, Washington and Seoul have entered a new period of economic tension in the Trump administration. Unlike prior U.S. presidents, who placed a priority on negotiating fair rules in the United States’ economic relationships, President Trump has prioritized outcomes. As a result, one of his administration’s earliest moves was to renegotiate the KORUS Free Trade Agreement. While the results of the renegotiation were modest, they may help to expand the sale of American automobiles in the Republic of Korea in the long-run. The largest outcome of the negotiations may be to protect the Ford Motor Company from South Korean competition in the U.S. market as the company transitions to sales focused on light trucks. While the renegotiation has eased tensions for the moment, the prospect of economic engagement with North Korea, the Trump administration’s continued use of national security to erect trade barriers, and the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles could result in growing tensions in the relationship.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Free Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

257. Trade linkages and firm value: evidence from the 2018 US-China "trade war"

Author:: Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Sibo Liu, and Heiwai Tang
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the "Trade War" between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks in the short time window around the announcement date. We also find that firms' indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcement. These findings suggest that the structure of US-China trade is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that engendered Trump's "Trade War" against China.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Global Political Economy, Trade Wars, and Exports
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

258. The Mainstream Economics Interpretation of the Local State and Central-Local Relations in Post-Mao China: a Critical Review

Author:: Alexandre De Podesta Gomes
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Decentralization and the role of local governments have long been touted as key factors in the Chinese economic miracle. This paper intends to critically assess the chief theories advanced by mainstream economics in its attempt to make sense of these aspects of China’s growth story. Firstly the theoretical underpinnings of fiscal federalism, new institutional economics, and market-preserving federalism approaches will be presented, as these theories offer the bedrock for most of the applied insights in which China is framed through the lenses of the central-local relations debate. Secondly, the idea of ‘market-preserving federalism, Chinese-style’ will be critically appraised, highlighting its shortcomings. Thirdly, the paper proceeds by bringing in the mainstream response to these problems, relying on the notion of political incentives and career concerns faced by local cadres. It will be argued that the continual adherence to some core tenets dear to the new institutional economics literature in all previous explanations prevents this broad camp of knowledge to properly grasp the complex dynamics of China’s decentralization drive and the role of local governments in the process. Finally, and in closing, an alternative approach will be offered.
Topic:: Economics, Local, Decentralization, and Federalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

259. Social Stability and Resource Allocation within Business Groups

Author:: Haikun Zhu
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Using datasets on transactions within business groups and social sentiment in China, I show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) use internal funds to address social unrest, complying with the government’s political goals. I use plausibly unexpected shocks to regional stability to analyze the response of SOEs to these events. I find that the government, as the controlling shareholder, adopts a carrot-and-stick approach. The government offers a “carrot” by injecting funds into SOEs located in the affected areas, which are then used to generate benefits to the public, such as larger labor payments and additional capital expenditures. However, if there are severe political conflicts that threaten its authority, the government applies a “stick” by withdrawing resources. The SOEs channel seems effective because local sentiment recovers around shocks when SOEs offer more benefits. Additional tests show that the SOEs channel is significant in economic magnitude compared to fiscal redistribution. As a result of the transfer, SOEs lose value after shocks, but firms in the region improve their performance later. This paper provides new evidence on how the intra-group allocation of resources incorporates political objectives, and has socioeconomic impact.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Business, Capital, and Social Stability
Political Geography:: China and Asia

260. PeSCo – Anything There for European Defence?

Author:: Sandro Knezović
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The European strategic landscape has changed dramatically over the course of the last decade. The post-Cold War mantra about the obsolescence of conventional threats in the wider European space proved to be short-sighted with developments at its eastern �lanks, while security dysfunctions in the MENA region and their immanent consequences for the safety of European citizens have loaded a heavy burden on compromise-building and decision-making in the �ield of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) of the EU. Furthermore, the approach of the new US administration to European security and the strategic consequences of Brexit have changed the wider framework in which security of 'the Old Continent' is to be determined, hence stimulating European leaders to rethink European security in a strive for strategic autonomy of their own. The very ambitiously phrased EU Global Strategy that came out in June 2016, served as both catalyst and umbrella document for such an endeavour. However, in order to achieve measurable progress in responding to contemporary security challenges, it was clear that the EU needs to develop a structural way for member states to do jointly what they were not capable of doing at the national level. This is so especially in the environment in which China, Russia and Saudi Arabia are championing the defence spending, right after the US, while European states are signi�icantly trailing behind. The fact that the EU collectively is the second largest military investor and yet far from being among the dominant military powers only emphasises the burning issue of ef�iciency of military spending and the level of interoperability among member states’ armies. High-level fragmentation of the European defence market and the fact that defence industries are kept in national clusters is clearly contributing to that. The reality on the ground is obviously challenging traditional methods of co-operation that operate mainly in ‘national boxes’ and calling for a paradigm change in the wider policy context of CSDP. However, it remains to be seen to which extent will this new security environment actually be able to push the European defence policy context over the strict national boundaries.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

261. North Korea’s Military Strategy, 2018

Author:: Chun In-bum
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: As the focus shifted from North Korea’s military advances in 2017 to its diplomatic offensive in 2018, we should not lose sight of the strategic thinking behind gaining the maximum time to develop the capacity to extend its military threat. At present North Korea needs time to perfect its nuclear strike capability. It has been very successful in developing missile capabilities, but it needs additional time to achieve its goals. Starting with high-level North-South talks on March 5, 2018, the DPRK has just gained what it needs most: time. Whenever the first talks begin with the United States and the DPRK, there should be no surprise if the DPRK comes with an improved capability to threaten the alliance. Thus, for an extended period in 2018, as diplomacy proceeds, we should expect a subdued North Korean approach: not flaunting its nuclear weapons and missiles, while striving to boost capabilities for the struggle ahead. In the seven years since Kim Jong-un officially inherited the leadership of the DPRK, his stated policy has been byungjin ( 병진, 竝進), the pursuit of both economic and military development. In conjunction with purges and efforts to eliminate rivals, byungjin may, in part, derive from Kim’s efforts at the outset of his tenure to consolidate political power. Through it, Kim displayed moderate economic flexibility, thereby gaining favor with the North Korean people through facilitating an improvement in living standards. It is tempting to see byungjin as a sign of the regime’s weakness, or as an indication of moderation, either of which would prompt the eventual collapse of the Kim regime. Correspondingly, one might see it as a reflection of Kim’s immaturity, inexperience, and lack of political and strategic acumen. These viewpoints reflect mirror imaging more than a sophisticated understanding of North Korea. Byungjin may be more of a political device and a strategic communications element of a grand strategy, as opposed to the regime’s strategy. It may be a significant instrument in the regime’s effort to maintain elite cohesion and focus the energies of the North Korean people toward productive pursuits that likewise add to the regime’s legitimacy and staying power. It by no means suggests any diminishing of the priority of making advances in nuclear and missile development in order to pose a more serious threat. Since taking power, Kim’s regime has fired close to one hundred missiles of wide variety and range compared to thirty-one for his father and grandfather combined. He has also conducted four nuclear tests, boasting of a thermal nuclear capability. During his 2018 New Year’s address, Kim Jong-un proclaimed that the DPRK had perfected its nuclear and intercontinental missile capabilities, supporting North Korea’s constitutional claim to be a nuclear power. Despite an upsurge in diplomacy after this address, we should keep our eyes on its military advances.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Security, Military Strategy, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, and Korea

262. North Korea’s Economic Strategy, 2018

Author:: William B. Brown
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: This chapter takes the perspective of North Korea’s leadership as it confronts difficult economic problems in the remaining months of 2018. The major current and potential issues are listed and prioritized. Short and longer-term remedies are presented, each with trade-offs that affect other economic and policy issues. Given the absence of direct reporting from North Korea, the issues and debates presented are speculative, designed to give the reader a more comprehensive understanding of North Korea’s current problems than is ordinarily presented in western media. Kim Jong-un’s recent diplomatic offensive, reaching out to South Korea, China, and the United States is, in this view, suggestive of these internal economic troubles in addition to the nuclear security issues. The troubles are both short-term—the collapse in trade with China in just the past few months—and long-term, the slow-motion collapse of the communist country’s “command” economy. And much more than in the past, the problems relate to the regime’s unusual and dangerous monetary system, money being a normal issue for most governments but a relatively new one for this still partially rationed, or planned, oriented system. The leadership may have little choice but to let the domestic economy move further from the plan—allowing decentralized market and private activities more sway—than ever before. This would help cushion the central government from losses due to the sanctions and open the door to a much more prosperous future. Without major moves in this direction, inflation and unemployment may cascade into social crisis. It should be noted, that the recent Assembly Meetings, which annually focus on the economy, gave little official indication of policy changes, only a sense of digging in further to protect the regime from outside forces. But just a week later, Kim may have telegraphed an upcoming sea change when, in his address to the Party Central Committee plenum, that he is instituting a new Party Line, socialist economic construction, as the total focus of the Party and the country. Major changes, if they are to occur, will likely come after the upcoming important summits with South Korea and the U.S.1 There is little doubt that the economy in 2018 is in very poor condition, delivering one of the worst productivity rates—productivity in terms of labor and of capital—in the world, but it is important to recognize that this is due not to natural circumstances but to decisions the government has made over the years, and trade-offs it has already made. This suggests that astute government policy can create solutions and restore growth. Remedies of the sort expressed here, for example in liquidating, that is selling or leasing state assets to private buyers, raising fixed prices for state delivered electricity and for water and other utilities, and giving large pay raises to the millions of state workers who now rely on rations, while culling their numbers, would require difficult economic and social trade-offs; one might say there is no free lunch for Kim and his regime although no doubt they are looking for one, even in these summits. The chapter discusses just what kinds of decisions might be made and the likely consequences. Negotiations being set with South Korea and with the United States, and likely more discussions with China, may weigh heavily in how far Pyongyang will be willing to go in these respects. In my view the regime will be looking for: outright aid, payments for pushing back the nuclear weapons program, and premature relief from sanctions, which would only give the regime time to avoid the hard choices needed to permanently fix the broken economic system.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Sanctions, Services, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, and Korea

263. The Game for Regional Hegemony: China's OBOR and India's Strategic Response

Author:: Anshuman Rahul
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The OBOR initiative of China often termed as ‘Modern-day Silk Road’ is based on President Xi Jinping’s epic vision to make ‘China Great Again’ by reviving the Silk Route of ancient times. This initiative aims to engage Eurasia economically by creating a network of infrastructure. In this regard, the article attempts to understand the geo-politics behind India’s refusal to join OBOR and strategic response to counter the most appealing economic engagement of the present era but considered to be a debt-trap by India.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

264. Economic Regionalism is Key to Openness and Growth: An ASEAN Perspective

Author:: Sanchita Basu Das
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are involved in several regional economic arrangements, not only their own ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), but also those in a bigger geographic area, such as the ASEAN+1 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). A subset of these countries are partaking of Asia-Pacific deals, namely the latest Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Some are pursuing bilateral deals in pursuit of deeper economic cooperation. Finally, all ASEAN countries are members of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which although not labelled a trade agreement, is concerned with trade-related measures including transport infrastructure, policy coordination, economic connectivity through trade and investment, customs modernization, financial cooperation, and people-to-people linkages. A common feature of all these trade agreements is that they are not just focused on removing restrictions on trade, i.e. lowering import tariffs and quotas, but are much more comprehensive and include issues like trade in services, investment, labor, intellectual property rights, regulatory standards, and health and safety rules. All of these agreements deal with cooperation measures beyond national borders and can be called deep economic cooperation. They go beyond the WTO framework and are often labeled “new regionalism,” understood as state-led projects in the context of global developments. The extent of deepness varies, mainly depending on the participating countries’ development stage and the economic competitiveness of domestic sectors. What do the ASEAN countries aim to achieve? Theory has elucidated that governments have motives ranging from politics to economics when entering an economic cooperation arrangement. The political motives could be confidence building, i.e. if an international relationship was blemished by a history of conflict, economic cooperation can introduce a process of confidence building.3 For smaller countries, it could be seen as a means to increase bargaining power with the international community. Countries often see economic cooperation as a means to hasten their domestic economic reforms so as to increase attractiveness to foreign investors.4 Governments could follow a regionalism exercise also to defend domestic interests that are threatened by regionalism elsewhere. As for the economic motives, countries prefer cooperation among a limited number of players as it enables continued protection in a bigger geographical space and shuns producers from non-members. This enables them to exclude “politically sensitive,” noncompetitive domestic sectors completely from trade liberalization. Finally, regional economic arrangements are essential for creating economies of scale for producers and offering a larger market for consumers, which increases attractiveness to potential investors. This chapter elaborates on ASEAN’s perspective on economic regionalism in the Asia-Pacific. It examines key initiatives that ASEAN countries are currently negotiating or implementing in their national economies, discusses economic and strategic motives, and views the future of regionalism from an ASEAN perspective. It concludes that although the ASEAN countries are facing some uncertainties in their pursuit of economic regionalism, they will continue to support the endeavor as it serves their economic structure of openness. The countries have realized the benefits of economic integration in terms of confidence building of investors, thereby bolstering economic growth.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Growth, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

265. Advancing the Regional Trade Order in East Asia with a Less Engaged United States

Author:: Korea Economic Institute of America
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election and immediate pullout from the TPP, a scramble ensued over how to proceed with constructing a regional trade order centered on East Asia. For China this brought closer scrutiny of its pursuit of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the case of Japan, questions followed about what to do with the residue of TPP. Others, notably countries in Southeast Asia, were left contemplating the balance between eastern exclusive regionalism and the western presence in regionalism. In the background were efforts in South Asia aimed at advancing economic integration with East Asia. A kind of free-for-all was in progress without the moorings that had been lost after the paradigm of competition between a U.S.-led TPP and a China hub-and-spokes BRI no longer was guiding the strategic calculations of Asian countries. Then, in March 2018 came Trump’s disruptive tariffs, threatening to set a trade war in motion. Four chapters explore the challenge of advancing a regional trade order in East Asia in the new circumstances of 2017-18. Tu Xinquan in Chapter 10 questions whether BRI is a path toward regionalism, delving deeply into the Chinese strategy for BRI. T.J. Pempel follows in Chapter 11 by exploring Japan’s thinking about TPP and the process of refocusing on TPP- 11 following the U.S. withdrawal. Chapter 12 by Sanchita Basu Das offers a hopeful ASEAN perspective on economic regionalism. Finally, in Chapter 13 Pradumna Bickram Rana traces thinking about re-energizing economic integration between South Asia and East Asia. With no finality to the RCEP talks and the recently concluded TPP-11 pact still taking shape and Trump’s “America First” trade policy casting a dark shadow, we aim to capture signs of a new trade order at a time of flux.
Topic:: Economics, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, China, East Asia, Asia, and Korea

266. Making Korea Grow Again: Rebalancing the Moon Jae-in Economic Agenda

Author:: Choong Yong Ahn
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea has taken a two-pronged approach to ensure urgently needed job creation and inclusive growth. Although measures towards each set of economic policies have been implemented since Moon took office in May 2017, what’s often referred to as “incomeled growth” has been prioritized over innovative growth. The income-led growth model is largely driven by domestic consumption through pro-labor distributional policies including a wage hike to raise the disposable income of low- and middleincome individuals, thereby triggering equity with growth. Focused more on the supply side, the innovative growth model encourages startups to create jobs and innovate. It is a great challenge for Korea to pursue growth and equity through both sets of policies. After a year in office, the Moon administration’s economic agenda, often referred to as J-nomics, has not fully produced the intended policy objectives in terms of job creation and growth. To mitigate a declining potential growth rate and pursue robust and inclusive growth, the twin policies need to be rebalanced, reprioritized, and interconnected in a mutually reinforcing manner to empower the private sector to play a bigger role. As a mid-sized open economy, Korea requires global market competitiveness on the supply side to create decent jobs by buoying entrepreneurship and innovation. Structural reforms in the labor market combined with deregulations necessary for the advent of disruptive 4th-industrial-revolution technologies must be expedited. Furthermore, a new business ecosystem in which win-win collaborations between globally-oriented conglomerates and small businesses must be encouraged to replace a zero-sum business culture.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Global Markets, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Korea

267. The Economic Importance of the KORUS FTA: A Case Study of the Korean Beef Market After Renegotiations

Author:: Jin Kyo Suh
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Beef trade was a major sticking point between the United States and South Korea in ratifying the KORUS FTA. The outcome of the renegotiations that led to the March 2018 agreement in principle did not impact sections pertaining to beef in the agreement, though looking at how beef trade would have been affected should the talks have failed highlights the importance of the agreement to both countries, but particularly the United States. This paper estimates the demand for imported beef in South Korea by source and product by using the production version of the Rotterdam demand system and assesses what the potential impact of U.S. withdrawal from the KORUS FTA would have been on beef trade between the U.S. and South Korea. The results suggest U.S. withdrawal from the KORUS FTA would have resulted in a considerable increase in Australian beef exports to South Korea, largely at the expense of U.S. beef. This is because there is significant price competition between beef imports from the United States and Australia. Furthermore, Korean consumers substitute American beef for Australian beef when the relative price of U.S. beef rises.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Exports, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, Korea, and United States of America

268. The Benefits of Regional Integration for Pakistan and Central Asian Republics

Author:: Sarwat Rauf
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Regional cooperation can give power to the small states and in order to get economic development, states usually prefer to enter in political and economic alliances. This paper examines the efforts of Pakistan and China to upgrade their regional cooperation through connectivity. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important branch of Chinese mega project, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which intended to link South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Europe and Africa by using land and sea routes. The main argument is that CPEC will bring comprehensive changes in the economy of Pakistan and it would be beneficial for neighboring countries particularly CARs. CPEC has steered several other economic projects such as signing of Central Asia-South Asia (CASA-1000) envisages cooperation between two regions. Similarly, groundbreaking ceremony of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Pipeline (TAPI) reflects revamping of relations between states. The paper is set out in the perspective of available harmonious grounds for Pakistan and CARs. It also examines the various facets of the utility of CPEC for China, Pakistan and CARs
Topic:: Economics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

269. Corruption in Yemen’s War Economy

Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Corruption, or the abuse of power for private gain, has been deeply entrenched in the Yemeni political economy for decades. Over the course of the ongoing conflict, however, as the war has fragmented and regionalized the country, state capture in Yemen has become far more complex. In the war economy, patronage networks are now emerging among previously marginal or unknown figures. The financial involvement of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has extended patronage across national borders. Alleged collusion between Houthi-affiliated importers and officials allied with the internationally recognized Yemeni government indicates patronage networks that potentially cross the frontlines of the war themselves. As greater numbers and a wider variety of actors profit from illicit activity in the war economy, vested economic interests in continued conflict become more entrenched. If state capture is among the main drivers of Yemen’s war economy, then post-conflict recovery must include a strong anti-corruption agenda. Policymakers must begin planning to address corruption as a part of a potential post-conflict strategy. Given the multi-faceted pervasiveness of corruption in Yemen, any anti-corruption agenda must aim to understand the complex configuration of patronage networks in Yemen, to be introduced gradually, and to get the buy-in of as wide a group of Yemenis as possible. Without these basic building blocks, more specific policy changes such as encouraging transparency or reducing conflicts of interest may founder. Corruption has become deeply entrenched in Yemen; any post-conflict anti-corruption agenda must be great in scope and long-term in vision.
Topic:: Corruption, Economics, Government, War, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

270. EU, China Have Common Interests to Cope With US Protectionism” - Analyst

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Abstract:: The Chinese government has announced plans to implement retaliatory duties on $34 billion worth of US goods following the introduction of similar measures by Washington. Sputnik has discussed the issue of the looming trade war with Qingyi Su, Senior Research Fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
Topic:: Economics, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

271. Who Can Win the Possible China-US Trade War?

Author:: Li Chunding
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This paper uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China-US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China-US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

272. Country-Risk Rating of Overseas Investment from China (2018)

Author:: CROIC-IWEP
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: China's outbound direct investment hit a new high in 2016, reaching $196.15 billion, making the country the world's second-largest overseas investor. The volume of its outbound direct investment increased by 34.7% year-on-year in 2016 and accounted for 13.5% of the world's total — the first time it exceeded 10%. Since 2003, when the Ministry of Commerce joined hands with the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to start releasing authoritative investment data annually, China's outbound direct investment has kept increasing for 14 consecutive years. From 2002 to 2016, the annual average growth of its outbound direct investment reached 35.8%. In 2016, China's outbound direct investment once again exceeded the foreign direct investment it received, making it a net capital exporter for two consecutive years. Meanwhile, its outbound direct investment stock hit $1.35739 trillion at the end of 2016, the 6th largest in the world, two notches up compared with in 2015. In 2016, China had the most overseas M&A deals in history in terms of both number and value of M&A deals. In the future, China is expected to bring out more of its investment potentials and build a win-win cooperative relationship with other countries following its economic transition and upgrading, rising competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in overseas markets and steady advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

273. Inequality dynamics in China: Income growth for the poor, but more for the rich

Author:: Shi Li and Terry Sicular
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In the late 1970s, China embarked on a major programme of economic transition and reform. Since then, China’s economy has been transformed from a socialist planned economy to a predominately market economy characterized by a combination of state, private, and mixed forms of ownership. Over the past forty years, household incomes have risen six-fold, poverty has declined dramatically, and in recent years a new class of ultra-rich has emerged. These developments have naturally led to questions about inequality trends in China.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Reform, Income Inequality, and Welfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

274. The Future of Business: Shaping Inclusive Growth in South-East Asia

Author:: Shubert Ciencia and Alex Maitland
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: South-East Asia has seen remarkable economic growth over recent decades but also faces serious challenges, especially growing levels of inequality. Solutions are emerging, and the region’s leaders have agreed that inclusive growth is the way forward. Inclusive economies need inclusive businesses. Although at an early stage, we’re witnessing the potential for business to deliver the solutions. This discussion paper reviews the issues faced in the region, how business can be part of the solution through a spectrum of approaches, ways in which social enterprise models can be supported to thrive, and makes recommendations for the region’s businesses.
Topic:: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Innovation, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

275. The United Nations Development Programme and the Two Koreas

Author:: Gabriel Jonsson
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This paper examines the United Nations Development Programme’s role in South and North Korea’s economic development. The UNDP is not only the UN’s lead agency for economic and social development, it is one of the few UN organizations to have worked with both countries in traditional bilateral arrangements, as well as a in multilateral initiative. Operating in South Korea from 1963 to 2009, the UNDP contributed to the nation’s economic development by complimenting the government’s policies. However, its role was minor compared to the government’s own actions. Nonetheless, South Korea has served on the UNDP board four times since its UN admission in 1991, raising the country’s diplomatic standing. After North Korea joined the UNDP in 1979, the organization’s work in the country focused on improving food production and supporting industrial development. These activities helped improve the economic crisis since the 1990s. In the 1990s, the UNDP provided humanitarian assistance and scholarships to develop human resources. Pyongyang officials restricted the UNDP’s work throughout the time it was active in North Korea. These violations led the UNDP to suspend operations in 2007. Since the early 1990s, the UNDP has supported the Tumen River Area Development Program, the only initiative that involved the two Koreas, as well as China, Russia and Mongolia. Although the UNDP facilitated initial contacts, it was unable to overcome longstanding animosities and disagreements. The successor Greater Tumen Initiative continues to languish.
Topic:: Economics, Government, United Nations, and United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United Nations

276. Chinese and Indian Competition in Space Heats Up

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: At the height of the Cold War the United States and the Soviet Union used money and weapons to build satellite states; today China and India are using satellites in space to win influence and secure their geo-political and economic interests. They see each other as competition in the global satellite launch business. So how do the Indian and Chinese space programs compare? In which areas is competition likely to be most intense?
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Space
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Sri Lanka

277. China Pakistan Economic Corridor – A geo-economic masterstroke of China

Author:: Inayat Kalim
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Development of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with all its associated projects, favorably influences the geo-strategic and geo-economic prospects of China. Geo-strategic location of Gwadar further facilitates China to capture transit trade with Central Asia, Afghanistan and the Middle East and influence this regional accessibility with a viable and secured corridor for further expansion of regional economic cooperation. Since the emergence of China as an energy importer in late 90s, it has adopted a „go out‟ strategy to secure energy assets through procurement and long term energy investment in the energy rich countries, mostly in the Persian Gulf states and convert historical routes into a modern grid of energy pipelines, roads and railways for its energy supplies. The strategy aims at using financial means such as building new seaports, infrastructure development and military and hydrocarbon cooperation between regional countries to establish an artery for ensuring uninterrupted crude oil supply to its territory. This Chinese approach has been referred by many intellects around the globe as the revitalization of the Silk Road Strategy to link China with surrounding regions to generate immense economic dividends.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, and Punjab

278. The Peripheral Protagonist: The Curious Case of the Missing Trans-Himalayan Trader

Author:: Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: It is intriguing that despite a liberal economic narrative of borders as bridges, the transHimalayan trader has remained a rather forlorn and forgotten metaphor. This absence has however neither been voluntary nor anticipated but instead can be traced to fundamental flaws in India’s subregional discourse with its bias toward state-led formal institution building. Far from being marginal, the trans-Himalayan trader was in fact the central protagonist, as can be seen from a reading of the social and economic history of India’s borderlands. While this is not an attempt to read back into history a larger-than-life role for the border actor, it is a cue for India’s subregional discourse to imaginatively re-engage with the expertise and rich form of social capital that the transborder trader represents.
Topic:: Economics, History, Borders, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and Himalayas

279. Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia

Author:: Ansgar Belke, Irina Dubova, and Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper explores the extent to which changes to long-term interest rates in major advanced economies have influenced long-term government bond yields in Emerging Asia. To gauge long-term interest spillover effects, the paper uses VAR variance decompositions with high frequency data. Our results reveal that sovereign bond yields in Emerging Asia responded significantly to changes to US and Eurozone bond yields, although the magnitudes were heterogeneous across countries. The size of spillovers varied over time. The pattern of these variations can partially be explained by the implementation of different unconventional monetary policy measures in advanced countries.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, and Bonds
Political Geography:: Asia

280. Progress and Implications of the China-Korea FTA

Author:: Li Si-qi, Tu Xin-quan, and Liu Bin
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The article focuses on the China-Korea FTA, analyzing the background of China-Korea bilateral economic relations, the characteristics of the China-Korea FTA and more importantly, the implications and future prospect of this free trade pact. So far, the China-Korea FTA is considered to be the most comprehensive compared with China's previous FTAs and may be the largest in trade terms among all the FTAs concluded by Korea and China, playing a positive role in advancing economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. However, with lots of exceptions to tariff elimination and market access, as well as a 20-year transition period, the present version of the China-Korea FTA is far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment rules. The recent bilateral diplomatic tensions due to the decision of deploying the THAAD missile system by the Korean government may also jeopardize bilateral economic ties between China and Korea, and further increase uncertainties of the China-Korea FTA. It remains to be seen whether the Chinese and Korean governments will handle this issue smoothly under the present sensitive political atmosphere and achieve substantial progress in follow-up FTA negotiations on services and investment.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

281. Korea's Economic Relations with Japan

Author:: Kim Gyu-Pan
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Korea's economic relations with Japan, which were re-established as a result of the diplomatic normalization between the two countries in 1965, have transformed from dependent to interdependent. The extraordinary economic growth that Korea accomplished during the post-war period was largely due to intermediate goods imported from Japan, and technical cooperation and joint ventures with Japanese enterprises. However, in the 21st century, the dependence of Korean firms on Japanese technology has somewhat declined as global enterprises have appeared in Korea. In contrast to the post-war economic boom, Japanese companies now prefer to cooperate with their Korean counterparts, resulting in joint business ventures between Korean and Japanese firms being continuously developed. This reversal in the economic ties between Korea and Japan can be attributed to several reasons including: the rise of China; Japan's two lost decades; and Korea's push for domestic structural reform as well as economic globalization after the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997. Nonetheless, the issue of Korea's trade imbalance with Japan, which was established during the post-war period, still remains thereby serving as a serious impediment to FTA negotiations between Korea and Japan as well as Korea's TPP negotiations.
Topic:: Economics, History, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

282. Present Conditions of North Korean Industry and Possible Reconstruction Plans

Author:: Lim Soo-ho and Hong Seok-ki
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Since the collapse of industry during the 'Arduous March' (1995-1997), Pyongyang has continuously launched reconstruction plans but has failed to see a rebound. The key is to restore industrial linkages; however, the DPRK allocated a majority of state investment to the defense industry under the 'Military First Economic Policy.' As long as the 'strategic sector' retains priority, a sound outcome seems to be out of reach. In reality, North Korea's comparative advantage lies on labor-intensive business, with abundant labor forces at a low cost. After unification, such industries will have bright prospects with technology and capital not only from South Korea, but also from China and Japan. The economic integration scenario of the two Koreas -- whether radical or gradual -- will decide industrial policies for the upper half of the peninsula in the post-unification era.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, History, Reconstruction, and Industry
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

283. Korean Firms' Sustainability Practices and Their Role in the Green Economy

Author:: Younsung Kim
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Companies in industrialized nations have embraced environmental protection and sustainability as part of their international competitive strategies. The trend toward proactive environmental management has also grown in Korean firms, as consumers, investors, local policy networks, and the Lee Myung-bak administration’s green growth policy initiatives have provided an impetus for the greening of South Korean firms. However, despite heightened firm interest in environmental responsibility, there is little understanding of which types of sustainable activities Korean firms have implemented. Analyzing sustainability reports from 30 large Korean firms, this study finds that Korean firms are more likely to employ lower-order sustainability practices that can help prevent pollution and modify existing processes and products to reduce environmental impact. However, their focus on innovating clean technologies seems to be limited. To transition to a low-carbon, green economy, the Korean government should consider green growth policies that foster firms’ investments in higher-order sustainability strategies and scale up corporate sustainability more broadly in the Korean business community.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Korea

284. China's Future and the Determining Role of the Market for Ideas

Author:: Ning Wang
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The ultimate success of China’s search for economic prosperity, cultural renaissance, and a “peaceful rise” depends, in large part, on whether a free market for ideas can reemerge and flourish in China. The concept of the “market for ideas” (sixian shichang) was first introduced to a Chinese audience by Ronald Coase and myself in How China Became Capitalist (Coase and Wang 2012, see also Coase 1974). It quickly won acceptance among academics and the media. China is the only leading economy where the production and communication of ideas remains under strict state control. Universities, the primary venue where new ideas are produced, are run by the state. Newspapers, radio and TV stations, and publishers are all controlled by the state; ideas unwelcome by the state have a hard time to see the light of day. Because the freedom to supply ideas, choose ideas, and criticize ideas is severely limited, the creativity of the Chinese people is underutilized and their innovative potential undertapped.
Topic:: Economics, History, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:: China and Asia

285. The Framework for a U.S.-Japan Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Derek M. Scissors and Dan Blumenthal
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: The United States and Japan can create a bilateral free trade and investment agreement that both sides will sign and ratify. While the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) initially appeared to qualify as the new approach the U.S., Japan, and East Asia needed. It failed to sufficiently promote free markets and address concerns to generate enough support from traditional protectionist opponents in the United States. Nonetheless, the TPP did clarify the value of a directly relatied initiative: a U.S.-Japan bilateral agreement. This monograph serves to provide a framework for a U.S.-Japan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and offers an outline for what such an agreement should look like in order to work both economically and in terms of domestic politics.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Domestic Politics, Investment, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

286. Will We Derail US Freight Rolling Stock Production?

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: US freight railcar manufacturers contribute $6.5 billion to U.S. GDP and support nearly 65,000 jobs. However, increased global competition and evidence suggesting unfair business practices puts this contribution at risk. Oxford Economics conducted an original study that evaluates the practices of Chinese state-owned enterprises' (SOE) push into the U.S. market and the potential risks to domestic manufacturers and domestic supply chains. The study focuses primarily on U.S. freight railcar production and includes consequences from a similar experience in Australia's freight railcar production, when faced with the entrance of Chinese SOEs.
Topic:: Economics, Hegemony, State Actors, and Transportation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Australia, Australia/Pacific, North America, and United States of America

287. Reinforcing U.S.-ROK Economic Relations through a Better Understanding of the KORUS FTA

Author:: Suh Jin Kyo
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has made it clear that he intends to follow through on his protectionist campaign promises. On his first day in office, he formally removed the United States from the TPP. Trump has also informed congressional leaders of his intent to renegotiate NAFTA, the biggest trade deal ever signed by Washington. If a draft letter being circulated by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is approved by Congress, formal negotiations with Canada and Mexico could start later this year. Additionally, the president signed an executive order for USTR and the Department of Commerce to lead a comprehensive study of unfair trade practices of major trading partners. The result could provide the economic and political justifications needed to take bold and legally defensible actions. The administration also launched an investigation into the national security risks that may arise from a global oversupply of aluminum and steel. There are clear indications it may look to restrict aluminum and steel imports before long. Trump is now targeting the KORUS FTA. He has threatened to terminate the five-year-old trade deal, which, he claims, has been devastating for the American economy, unless Korea gives the United States better terms, citing the arrangement’s simpler process of termination relative to NAFTA.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

288. Intro | U.S.-ROK Economic Relations Left Uncertain Amid Leadership Changes

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: While the other parts of this book bring China fully into the coverage—diplomacy, national identities, and sanctions—here we narrow the focus on U.S.-ROK relations with an eye to the current uncertainty about the future of the KORUS FTA, the five-year old bilateral trade agreement. Donald Trump has assumed the presidency critical of trade imbalances in goods, including assertions about the negative impact of the FTA with South Korea. It appears that the U.S. side will insist on renegotiating the agreement. In order to assess what this could mean, we take a close look at what the impact of KORUS has been and at how the debate in Washington has been unfolding under Trump’s watch. The three chapters were written in the early spring of 2017; so they could capture only the initial impact of Trump at a time when South Korean leadership was paralyzed between impeachment and the election of a new president without any serious bilateral engagement over economic issues. Yet, as tensions over economics are expected to rise, our objective is to inform the discussion with relevant economic background and with awareness of what Trump has been saying and how it may shape the political debate.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

289. China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: China’s increasingly significant economic and security interests in the Middle East have several impacts. It affects not only its energy security but also its regional posture, relations with regional powers as well as the United States, and efforts to pacify nationalist and Islamist Uighurs in its north-western province of Xinjiang. Those interests are considerably enhanced by China’s One Belt, One Road initiative that seeks to patch together a Eurasian land mass through inter-linked infrastructure, investment and expanded trade relations. Protecting its mushrooming interests is forcing China to realign its policies and relationships in the region. As it takes stock of the Middle East and North Africa’s volatility and tumultuous, often violent political transitions, China feels the pressure to acknowledge that it no longer can remain aloof to the Middle East and North Africa’s multiple conflicts. China’s long-standing insistence on non-interference in the domestic affairs of others, refusal to envision a foreign military presence and its perseverance that its primary focus is the development of mutually beneficial economic and commercial relations, increasingly falls short of what it needs to do to safeguard its vital interests. Increasingly, China will have to become a regional player in competitive cooperation with the United States, the dominant external actor in the region for the foreseeable future. The pressure to revisit long-standing foreign and defence policy principles is also driven by the fact that China’s key interests in the Middle East and North Africa have expanded significantly beyond the narrow focus of energy despite its dependence on the region for half 1 China has signalled its gradual recognition of these new realities with the publication in January 2016 of an Arab Policy Paper, the country’s first articulation of a policy towards the Middle East and North Africa. But, rather than spelling out specific policies, the paper reiterated the generalities of China’s core focus in its relations with the Arab world: economics, energy, counter-terrorism, security, technical cooperation and its One Belt, One Road initiative. Ultimately however, China will have to develop a strategic vision that outlines foreign and defence policies it needs to put in place to protect its expanding strategic, geopolitical, economic, and commercial interests in the Middle East and North Africa; its role and place in the region as a rising superpower in the region; and its relationship and cooperation with the United States in managing, if not resolving conflict.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Imperialism, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

290. Export Crops and Civil Conflict

Author:: Joseph Felter and Benjamin Crost
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Many governments and international experts consider a move towards high-value export crops, such as fruits and vegetables, as an important opportunity for economic growth and poverty reduction. Little is known, however, about the effects of export crops in fragile and conflict- affected countries. We exploit movements in world market prices combined with geographic variation in crop intensity to provide evidence that increases in the value of a major export crop exacerbate conflict violence in the Philippines. We further show that this effect is concentrated in areas with low baseline insurgent control. In areas with high insurgent control, a rise in crop value leads to a decrease in violence but a further expansion of rebel-controlled territory. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents gain strength from extorting agricultural exporters and that insurgent strength has a non-monotonic effect on conflict violence because strong insurgent groups can establish local monopolies of violence.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Violence, and Exports
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

291. Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Asia could be described as the world’s great construction site, and is already the focus of a scramble for infrastructure projects. Among countries competing for investments are not only China with its Silk Road initiative, but also Korea, Japan, India and ASEAN, which have prepared their own infrastructural strategies. The plethora of initiatives may have a positive impact on Asia, offering diverse solutions to the infrastructural bottleneck and reforms of existing institutions and modes of assistance. But there is also the risk that fierce competition may result in unprofitable projects, while economic slowdown could cause a decline in funding. For Europe these initiatives create opportunities to take part in new projects, but the EU should be aware that the projects will be implemented mainly in Asia and by Asian countries.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Reform
Political Geography:: Asia

292. At the Crossroads: The TPP, AIIB, and Japan's Foreign Economic Strategy

Author:: Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In 2015, two mega-initiatives took shape that will affect economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region: the US-promoted Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Although they address different needs, both are expected to have profound effects on Asia's economic governance in the near future, and will shape economic norms in the Asia Pacific and beyond. Japan has joined the TPP but stayed out of the AIIB, decisions that might seem counterintuitive considering its history of resisting trade liberalization and of promoting infrastructure investment. Is Japan simply favoring its US ally over rival China? Or is it that Japan's position on the TPP and AIIB aligns with its own economic priorities, and enhances its geo-economic advantage? With a US-China competition over economic ideas and regional strategies, Japan occupies a unique position that may allow it to influence the direction of Asia-Pacific economic governance, which is now being battled out by the two "titans."
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China and Asia

293. Are Distortions Good for Development? Structural Transformations and Cotton in Uzbekistan

Author:: Lorena Lombardozzi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Agriculture is at the origin of all economic activities and thus obtains a notable position in growth theory. The contribution of primary sector to long-term economic development has given space to asymmetrical positions. In the current context of globalized markets and downsized states, Uzbekistan is incontestably an exceptional case-study, applying distortive measures to its economy, and to agricultural sector in particular, to actively shape its comparative advantages. With reference to the cotton sector taxation in Uzbekistan, this analysis proposes to shed light on the implications of the main theoretical arguments around distortions. It will investigate the “circular cumulative and interactive process” produced and how it is being a driver of structural transformation, to exploit economies of scale and transfer capital investments for heavy industry, concluding that distortion can actually be instrumental for development.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Rural, and Crops
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan

294. Understanding the Recent trend of Income Inequality in China

Author:: Juzhong Zhuang and Shi Li
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper examines underlying factors that could explain the decline in income inequality in China since 2008 and inquires whether the decline indicates China‘s income inequality has peaked following the Kuznets hypothesis. The paper first identifies four key drivers of rising income inequality in China since the mid-1980: rising skill premium, declining share of labor income, increasing spatial inequality, and widening inequality in the distribution of wealth. It then provides evidence that the reversal of these drivers, with the exception of wealth inequality, could partly explains the decline in income inequality since 2008. The paper argues that since part of the reversal of these drivers is policy-induced, it is important that the policy actions continue for income inequality to decline further. The paper further argues that a critical factor underlying the Kuznets hypothesis is that taxation and transfers play a bigger role in income redistribution as a country becomes more developed, while their role is still limited in China, the future path of China‘s income inequality may not be one-directional, and may stay high before personal income tax plays a bigger role.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Income Inequality, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: China and Asia

295. Developing or Under-Developing? Implications of CHina's "Going Out" for Late Development

Author:: Dic Lo
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Since the turn of the century, China’s influence on world development has increased enormously. This paper seeks to analyse major attributes of the influence of China’s “going out”, centring on the argument that the influence has been in the main conducive to the rest of the developing world. Specifically, this paper offers a critique of relevant, popular theses such as “China’s neoliberalization crowds out world development”, “China under-cuts the conditions of the world’s working class”, and “China exhibits a tendency towards imperialism”, etc. It is argued that, in the context of a neoliberal world economy that is increasingly speculation-oriented, China’s production-oriented activities can be seen as an important countervailing force. Whether this China influence is to continue to be conducive to world development in the future, or to turn to become detrimental, depends critically on the broader political-economic context.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Hegemony, Trade, and Influence
Political Geography:: China and Asia

296. The Changing Pattern of China's Economic Relations with Southeast Asia

Author:: Anne Booth
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper examines the debates which have arisen in the ten countries of ASEAN about the impact of growing trade and investment ties with China, both before and after the full implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement in 2010. It examines the changes which have taken place in the country composition of trade and investment flows within the ASEAN countries, and between the ASEAN countries, China, and the rest of the world. The evidence indicates that while merchandise trade values have increased between China and ASEAN since 2010, the increase has not been as rapid as some predicted. But China is now running a substantial trade surplus with the ASEAN countries; the value of exports from China to ASEAN exceed the value of imports to China from the ASEAN countries. This surplus could lead to frictions in the future. Investment flows from China to ASEAN are still small in relation to flows into ASEAN from the rest of the world.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Hegemony, and Trade
Political Geography:: China and Asia

297. One Million Opportunities: The Impact of Mobile Internet on the Economy of Southeast Asia

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This study investigated the economic and social impact of mobile internet technology across the economies of South East Asia. In-house econometric research established the relationship between mobile internet penetration and key enablers of supply side growth including productivity and labour force participation. These results were applied to a group of economies in South East Asia to quantify the economic benefits of observed and forecast future increases in mobile internet penetration. Overall, increased mobile internet penetration is forecast to create an extra $58.1 billion in GDP and one million new job opportunities by 2020.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Internet
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

298. The Political Economy of Industrial Policy

Author:: Vinod K Aggarwal and Sonia Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:: Does the new IP debate fundamentally change the rationale for intervention? Are the new tools of intervention radically different from those we have seen before? Is the new IP easier to implement than import substitution industrialization that marked the economic policies of most developing countries from the 1950s to the early 1980s? And what constraints are countries likely to face if they try to pursue IP? By reviewing both the old and new claims about IP, and by focusing in particular on the political economy of IP, the goal of this paper is to provide analytical survey of the current lay of the land with respect to our understanding of the benefits and pitfalls in the pursuit of IP.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, and Industry
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

299. Commitment Concerns

Author:: Sheldon Simon
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: US relations with Southeast Asia encompassed all three pillars of its rebalance to Asia: military presence, multilateral diplomacy, and economic engagement. Militarily, the freedom of navigation voyage of the USS Lassen past China’s artificial islands occurred while the Department of Defense announced a $425 million five-year military aid program for Southeast Asian states and the White House committed an additional $259 million in military support for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Diplomatic engagements included visits to the region by the president, the secretaries of state and defense, and a number of senior aides to attend multilateral meetings. Commitment to the economic pillar led to the conclusion of negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. If ratified by the signatories, the TPP would be the most comprehensive trade and investment arrangement in the world, though a number of obstacles in many of the countries do not portend a quick or easy confirmation.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

300. A Full Year of “Acting East”

Author:: Satu Limaye
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: India-East Asia relations during 2015 offered a perspective on the first full year of India “Acting East.” India took important steps to shore up ties with several Asia-Pacific countries while also creating new relationships. While India-East Asia relations saw no ground-breaking developments, Prime Minister Modi continues to emphasize the political and strategic dimensions of India’s East Asia outreach – particularly in the maritime domain. An official review of India’s foreign relations released in late December provided a perspective on the priority that the Modi administration has been giving to East Asia.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: India, East Asia, and Asia

« Previous
Next »
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS