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42. Reflections on Vietnam and the Iraq War
- Author:
- Daniel Ellsberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- I'm often asked whether there aren't big differences between the Iraq War and Vietnam. And I'm always quick to say, of course, there are differences. In Iraq, it's a dry heat. And the language that none of our troops or diplomats speak is Arabic rather than Vietnamese.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Human Rights, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Vietnam, and Arabia
43. Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible. Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect. The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
44. The Key to Arab Reform: Moderate Islamists
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Before any significant political reform can take place in the Arab world, the United States and Europe need to begin engaging moderate Islamists, an action less thorny than it might seem because Islamists have embraced democratic procedures and have shown a strong commitment to the rule of law. For a long time Arab regimes have frightened the United States and Europe into supporting regimes' repressive measures toward Islamist movements by invoking the nightmare of anti-Western fanatics taking power through the ballot box. However, today's moderate Islamists—while illiberal in many important respects—no longer match the nightmare. Excluding them from the political sphere weakens the chances of democratic reform and increases the likelihood that eventually they will resort to violence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Arabia
45. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
46. Legalism Sans Frontières?: U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World
- Author:
- David M. Mednicoff
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- THE PROBLEM OF KNOWLEDGE IN RULE-OF-LAW PROMOTION, above all the basic question of whether Western rule-of-law aid programs are on the right track to help build the rule of law in recipient countries, is especially acute in the Arab world. Arab states generally share two features that render external rule-of-law aid particularly difficult—long-standing nondemocratic governments, and legal systems that graft Ottoman, European, and contemporary sources onto Islamic norms. We cannot presume that U.S. common-law practitioners can build the rule of law by transporting or transplanting their technocratic techniques into such different legal soil. Indeed, the very idea that people in Arab societies would be receptive to American guidance in legal reform is dubious in the current climate of broad, popular mistrust of the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Arabia, and Arab Countries
47. Saudi Arabia's Debate on Women Driving Masks a Deeper Divide
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- During the last several months, the question of whether women in Saudi Arabia should be allowed to drive has become a lively topic of debate within the kingdom. Support for the issue has come from the newly enthroned King Abdullah; the most prominent opponent is the long-serving interior minister, Prince Nayef. The men are viewed as political rivals frequently at odds over a range of policies. Increasingly, women driving seems a metaphor for the series of security, economic, and educational challenges facing the kingdom—and therefore a tempting policy opportunity for the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Gender Issues, Government, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
48. What Happened to the Iraqi Marsh Arabs and their Land?
- Author:
- Hanne Kirstine Adriansen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of the 2003 war against Iraq, the newspapers are full of stories about the monstrosities of Saddam Hussein's regime. One example is the destruction of the Iraqi marshlands leading to severe consequences for the human and wildlife population. While the responsibility for the atrocity against the Marsh Arabs is Saddam Hussein's, the desiccation of the marsh environment can be ascribed to a number of the hydro-political decisions made in the catchment area of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. Based on an analysis of the discourses of the destruction, it is demonstrated how these have changed after the war and are used in the battle to legitimise the war. This has led to a simplified image of the marshes and the Marsh Arab way of life. As the paper shows, a more complex approach towards the processes leading to this human and environmental disaster is required, if repatriation and rehabilitation of the area are to stand a chance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Environment, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Arabia
49. The Saudi Security Apparatus: Military and Security Services - Challenges and Developments
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Nawaf Obaid
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- Both Saudi Arabia's security situation, and the Saudi security apparatus, are undergoing major changes. Saudi Arabia no longer faces a major threat from Iraq, but must deal with the growing risk that Iran will become a nuclear power. This confronts Saudi Arabia with hard strategic choices as to whether to ignore Iran's efforts to proliferate, seek US military assistance in deterring Iran and possibly in some form of missile defense, or to acquire more modern missiles and its own weapons of mass destruction.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia
50. Integrating Democracy Promotion Into U.S. Middle East Policy
- Author:
- Michele Dunne
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- BETWEEN 2002 AND 2004, THE UNITED STATES ACCORDED new prominence to political and economic reform and democratization as policy goals in the Middle East. Continuing that trend and translating rhetoric into effective strategies both depend on whether reform and democratization become fully integrated into the U.S. policy agenda in the region. Can the United States promote change at the risk of instability in the region while it remains dependent on petroleum from Arab countries? Can it pursue Arab–Israeli peace and democratization at the same time? Can the United States still secure needed military and counterterrorism cooperation if it antagonizes friendly regimes by promoting democratization as well? Is it feasible for the United States to promote democratization effectively amid widespread grievances against the war in Iraq and serious questions about U.S. human rights practices there and in Afghanistan?
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia