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1. Saudi Arabia: The New Power Structure

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
King Salman has confirmed his reputation as a religious conservative through the reappointment of traditionalist clerics However he has also made some effort to streamline the Saudi government Recent changes have given considerable power to two men from the next generation: King Salman's son and his nephew The result may be good for hard security measures, but less certain for the soft measures necessary for Saudi Arabia to weather the storm.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

2. Agriculture and rural development for inclusive growth and food security in Morocco

Author:
Hafez Ghanem
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Morocco has so far been a success story in the Arab world. It has followed a gradual approach to political reforms and democratization, which led to the adoption of a new constitution and the holding of free parliamentary elections in 2011. At the same time, economic growth averaged 4.5 percent between 2000 and 2010, reached 5.0 percent in 2011, 2.7 percent in 2012, and 4.4 percent in 2013. That is, Morocco has avoided the political upheavals and economic meltdowns that plagued other Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs). Maintaining this record of success will require continued political and economic reforms.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Arabia and Morocco

3. Designing Youth Employment Policies in Egypt

Author:
Akira Murata
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The paper uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit job preferences among youth, and analyzes survey data collected from engineering students at 10 universities in six cities in Egypt during the period of July through October 2013. For a comparative analysis, the survey was also conducted at eight universities in five cities in Indonesia, which is one of the nations in Asia with a Muslim-majority population that faces the same demographic issue. The findings of this research will contribute to building a foundation for designing youth employment policies in Egypt. The most obvious findings to emerge from this study are that: the public-private sector wage differentials must be narrowed; better benefits must accompany private sector employment (particularly support for continuing education, upgrading qualifications, and health insurance); and good IT infrastructure matters. Taken together, these steps could significantly contribute to an increase in the rates of a private sector employment among young Egyptian job seekers, even in the case of continued high public sector wages.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Africa, America, and Arabia

4. Improving Regional and Rural Development for Inclusive Growth in Egypt

Author:
Hafez Ghanem
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper examines how economic growth in Egypt can be made more inclusive through a focus on rural development and reducing regional disparities. Nearly all of the extremely poor in Egypt live in rural areas and 83 percent of them live in Upper Egypt. The youth in those rural areas feel particularly excluded.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Arabia

5. Egypt's Solvency Crisis

Author:
Steven A. Cook
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Egypt is experiencing a deep economic crisis. The country's foreign currency r e serves are less than half of what they were before the January 2011 uprising, threatening Egypt's ability to pay for food and fuel. Egypt's budget deficit is 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and its overall debt, which is the result of accumulated deficits, is more than the country's economic output. In this difficult economic climate, roughly 4 5 percent of Egyptians live on less than two dollars per day. Inflation, which reached as high as 12.97 percent after the July 2013 military coup, is currently at 11.4 percent. Tourism revenue—traditionally a primary source of foreign currency along with Suez Canal tolls and remittances from Egyptians working abroad—is less than half of what it was in the last full year before the uprising. Foreign direct investment has dried up outside the energy sector. Unemployment remains high at 13.4 percent. Among the unemployed, 71 percent are between fifteen and twenty-nine years old. This economic weakness makes it politically difficult to address the problems that contribute to a potential solvency crisis because the necessary reforms will impose hardship on a population that is already experiencing economic pain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Regime Change, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

6. Paving the Way for Micro-, Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Southern Mediterranean

Author:
Rym Ayadi and Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Arab Spring, which took root in Tunisia and Egypt in the beginning of 2011 and gradually spread to other countries in the southern Mediterranean, highlighted the importance of private-sector development, job creation, improved governance and a more equitable distribution of economic opportunities. The developments led to domestic and international demands on the governments in the region to implement the reforms needed to enhance business and investment conditions, modernise their economies and support the development of enterprises.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Social Movement, and Reform
Political Geography:
Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

7. Shifting IMF Policies since the Arab Uprisings

Author:
Bessma Momani and Dustyn Lanz
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In response to the Arab uprisings in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, the IMF has changed its perspective on the social outcomes of its economic policy advice. The Fund now explicitly advocates inclusive growth, reduced inequality and increased attention to, and spending on, health and education services. Although this is a welcome transition, there is still room for improvement. In particular, the Fund could strengthen its commitment to the social dimensions of public policy by delivering more specific, tangible policy advice for countries to achieve inclusive growth, reduce inequality and improve health and education outcomes. More diverse expertise, achieved through wider recruitment of staff, would help the IMF achieve these goals.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

8. Baghdad-KRG Negotiations: Closer Than Ever to a Fair Deal

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Baghdad's promising offer on oil exports and revenues could provide vital breathing room to build a permanent revenue-sharing law, and Washington should encourage the Iraqi Kurds to sign on. On February 16, the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will hold another round of negotiations on oil exports and revenue sharing, the fifth such meeting since December 25. With passage of Iraq's 2014 budget delayed by the talks, all parties have a strong interest in striking a deal. Fortunately, such an agreement now stands a better chance of sticking than ever before.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Ethnic Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Arabia

9. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen

Author:
Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria

10. Jordan's Energy Balancing Act

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A deal to buy Israeli natural gas can help mitigate the kingdom's energy shortage and steer Amman away from problematic nuclear plans, but it risks stirring domestic opposition. In February, two private Jordanian firms signed a contract with a private U.S.-Israeli consortium to import natural gas from Israel's giant Tamar field, located under the bed of the Mediterranean Sea fifty miles offshore from Haifa. The Arab Potash Company and the Jordan Bromine Company -- both partially owned by the Jordanian government -- will pay Houston-based Noble Energy and its partners $500 million over the course of fifteen years to supply a power plant at Jordanian industrial facilities by the Dead Sea. At just $33 million per year, the deal is not financially significant, but it may set a huge precedent in terms of fostering regional economic cooperation and establishing a framework for Jordanian energy security. The political challenges are significant, however, particularly following the March 10 shooting of a Jordanian man at an Israeli-controlled West Bank crossing point.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

11. The Economic Consequences of the Arab Spring

Author:
Mohsin Khan
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The popular uprisings that swept the Middle East in early 2011 dramatically altered the political landscape of the region with the overthrow of autocratic regimes in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen. These uprisings gave hope to citizens that this was the beginning of a long-overdue process of democratic transition in the Arab world. The monarchies of Jordan and Morocco also went through profound political changes, even though the rulers maintained their power. While the promise of democracy in the Arab transition countries was seen as the driving force in the uprisings, economic issues were an equally important factor. The explosive combination of undemocratic regimes, corruption, high unemployment, and widening income and wealth inequalities all created the conditions for the uprisings. The citizens of these countries thus expected governments to simultaneously address their political and economic demands.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia

12. Egypt's Labor Dilemma

Author:
Mustansir Barma
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
“Bread, freedom, and social justice,” is the familiar slogan chanted across the Middle East and North Africa since the Arab uprisings erupted in December 2010. Labor issues fit into this trifecta: bread is a symbol of earning a decent living, freedom is tied to worker rights such as assembly and industrial action, and social justice is linked to dignity derived from employment and better working conditions. Egyptian workers remain frustrated about the lack of progress in achieving the labor rights that are fundamental to this rallying cry.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, and Food
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

13. Russian Support for Assad's Regime: Is There a Red Line?

Author:
Nikolay Kozhanov
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Russian government sincerely believes that Assad's removal from power would trigger the expansion of jihadism and instability in the Caucasus and southern Russia. Moscow is deeply concerned about the rise of Islamists in the Middle East, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia's efforts to support the most radical factions in Syria. At the same time, the obvious absence of the ideological background behind current Russian-Syrian relations makes them a trade item. Thus, official guarantees that the jihadists will not export their revolution elsewhere accompanied by promises to preserve some Russian economic positions in post-Assad Syria will probably create the necessary ground for the emergence of a compromise stance on Syria (including the issue of foreign intervention).
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Arabia, and Syria

14. Common Strategies for Women in Transition Countries

Author:
Steven E. Steiner
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Ongoing dialogues and forums on nations in transition reinforce the commonality of challenges related to women's rights and roles in society, especially leadership in government. Women leaders in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Arab Spring countries face major challenges, including heightened insecurity and the risk of women's rights being rolled back significantly. Steps to address these challenges are to build coalitions across internal divides, engage male religious leaders and other men to support women's rights, reach out to youth, develop gender-based budgeting, and underscore the importance of women's economic empowerment. Keys to progress in these areas include obtaining grassroots support and taking a long-term strategic focus in international programs.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Government, Labor Issues, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Arabia

15. The equity market will climb a wall of worry

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The equity market has had a tough few months due to a combination of concerns, including fears that a US-led attack on Syria might lead to a wider Middle East conflict and threaten oil supplies. Of greater concern for equities are worries that a turn in the US monetary policy cycle could eventually kill off the US recovery. However with valuation not looking like a barrier to further gains, this four-and-a-half year equity bull market will in all likelihood climb the wall of worry and set another new high before the year is out.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

16. Attack on Syria: the danger is in escalation

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
It is now looking all but certain that the United States will launch some form of attack on Syria. What is unclear is the severity and duration of the attack. Leaving aside the political ramifications, the immediate economic effects are likely to be limited (and are mostly already factored in). Opposing impacts on inflation and activity means that changes to central bank policy could be postponed. A prolonged campaign could have wider ramifications, not least if there is a risk of a geographical widening of the conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

17. The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region. Political dynamics and the current levels of, however, are only part of the story.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

18. The 'Arab Spring' and South China Sea Tensions: Analyzing China's Drive to Energy Security

Author:
Henelito A. Sevilla
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has brought significant changes to the political landscape in many Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries since early 2011. It has also affected the geo strategic and economic interests of powerful emerging Asian states, especially China and other net-energy consuming countries. One immediate result of the Arab Spring is its highly disrupted impact (a ' Black Swan') on the production and supply of crude oil to the economies in Asia due to their high degree of reliance on hydrocarbon from the Middle East. Chinese reactions to Arab Spring have fed tensions between itself and the countries with which it shares the South China Sea, most importantly the Philippines and Vietnam. This paper demonstrates that the black swan effect of the Arab Spring is manifested in the renewal of a geo-strategic competition in the South China Sea as China is re-asserting its historical claims over the control of the area and of its possible hydrocarbon reserves.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

19. The domestic challenges in the Saudi energy market and their regional and geopolitical implications

Author:
Eckart Woertz
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia's domestic energy consumption is skyrocketing. The growth of electricity demand is particularly strong and shows a high degree of seasonality due to the need for air conditioning in the hot summer months. Demand drivers are population growth, industrial development and a subsidy regime that encourages wasteful consumption. Saudi Arabia now faces a natural gas shortage and is seeking alternative energy sources like nuclear power and renewables in order to reduce the common practice of using fuel oil, crude oil and diesel in power stations. If unchecked, domestic energy demand will threaten oil export capacity and could compromise Saudi Arabia's role as swing producer in global oil markets. However, a reform of the subsidy regime is politically sensitive, because citizens regard subsidies as an entitlement. The government is reluctant to touch subsidies in order to avoid the kind of political unrest that has occurred elsewhere in the wake of the Arab Spring.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

20. Mauritania and Newly Emerging Economies in Africa Turkey and China

Author:
Fouad Farhaoui
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
Pre and post-independence policies have yielded volatile problems for African States. North African states, in particular, have seen disintegration between their Arab, Berber, and Black ethnic groups.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Turkey, and Arabia