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102. The Syrian People's Slow-motion Revolution
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Syrian uprising has defied conventional expectations and patterns established elsewhere in the region from the outset. It happened, first of all, and to many that in itself was surprising enough. The regime was not alone in believing in a form of Syrian exceptionalism that would shield it from serious popular unrest. Once the uprising began, it did not develop quickly, as in Egypt or Tunisia. Although it did not remain peaceful, it did not descend into a violent civil war, as in Libya, or sectarian affair, as in Bahrain. To this day, the outcome remains in doubt. Demonstrations have been growing in impressive fashion but have yet to attain critical mass. Regime support has been declining as the security services' brutality has intensified, but many constituents still prefer the status quo to an uncertain and potentially chaotic future. What is clear, however, is the degree to which a wide array of social groups, many once pillars of the regime, have turned against it and how relations between state and society have been forever altered.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
103. Polish Development Cooperation: A Turning Point
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The current Polish Development Cooperation system has been under gradual construction since 2004. Fortunately, recent reforms have raised the probability it eventually will evolve as a strong and important tool for Poland's external relations. Moreover, these positive changes are taking place at a very crucial moment in history when unprecedented turmoil in the Arab world has exposed the weaknesses of the European development policy and while Poland is holding the presidency of the EU Council. The convergence of these factors further strengthens the need for a swift finalization of improvements in its development cooperation system if Poland wants to play a more critical role internationally and prove its usefulness in assisting other countries to meet their political and economic aspirations. A development policy that is better-resourced and more balanced (geographically and thematically) would provide Poland with a credible tool of soft power and would strengthen the brand of Polish solidarity.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Arabia
104. Turkey and Democratization in the Arab World: Between an Inspiration and a Model
- Author:
- Karol Kujawa
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For several months, we have witnessed rapid change in the countries of North Africa. Researchers and politicians have raised questions about the future of Arab countries once the revolution has run its course. Will the new authorities attempt to build a theocratic state or will they follow the example of Turkey and implement democratic reforms? The latter choice is becoming increasingly popular in the Arab world. This article will address the key questions that come up in connection with Turkey and Arab countries, including: the source of Turkey's popularity in the Arab world, what do they have in common, what divides them and, finally, whether Turkey could become a model for Arab countries.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, Asia, and Arabia
105. The Egyptian Revolution and its Aftermath
- Author:
- Mohamed Elagati (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- There is a great similarity between the Egyptian and Tunisian political changes at the beginning of 2011. Not only were there similarities between the two economies—imbalanced development and investment indicators and increasing rates of inflation and unemployment—but also in a symbolic sense in the reaction of citizens to the harsh living conditions. The very same week that a young Tunisian man, Mohamed Bou Azeezi, set himself on fire to object to the municipality's confiscation of the goods he was selling, Egyptian Hamdy Al-Senoosi lighted himself on fire as well, objecting to the confiscation of his “tuctuc”. Many analysts point to differences in the political system: In Egypt, there was allowed some space for political practices, while in Tunisia there existed a very repressive environment to the extent that human rights activists called Zine El Abidine Ben Ali “The Arab Pinochet.” That repression led to the explosion of public outrage in Tunisia. The Tunisian system is a typical authoritarian one while the former Egyptian system was a model of “electoral authoritarianism,” allowing some space of political movement via a sort of “pluralism” (even if it was a facade), a somewhat independent judiciary (even if it was subject to political pressures), something akin to freedom of expression (even if owners of media channels could not cross certain lines) and seats in parliament for the opposition (even if the majority always went to the main party).
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
106. Salafis and Sufis in Egypt
- Author:
- Jonathan Brown
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As expected, Egypt's first parliamentary election after the overthrow of longtime leader Hosni Mubarak confirmed the popularity and organizational strength of the Muslim Brotherhood and Freedom and Justice Party, which won 77 of the 156 parliamentary seats contested in the first electoral round. Surprisingly, it also revealed the unexpected strength of the Salafi alliance, dominated by the al-Nour party, which secured 33 seats. Much to the discomfort of secular Egyptians and Western governments, Islamist parties now dominate the Egyptian political scene.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Syria
107. Egypt's Parliamentary Elections: The Political Implications of Electoral Transition
- Author:
- Daniel Tavana
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This policy brief analyzes Egypt's electoral framework in light of legal and political changes following the popular revolt that overthrew Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. Over the course of a three and a half month period, Egyptians will elect representatives to lower and upper houses of Parliament: the People's Assembly and the Shura Council, respectively. Once both houses convene in March 2012, a 100-member constituent assembly will be selected to draft a new constitution.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
108. Tunisia's National Constituent Assembly: Current Politics and Next Steps
- Author:
- Duncan Pickard
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The paper is intended for all policy analysts interested in Tunisia, but it could be especially helpful for members of the NCA and the legal advisory committee, chaired by Yadh Ben Achour, that was recently established to advise the NCA on constitutional law and drafting procedure. The National Constituent Assembly of Tunisia (NCA) will act as the constitutional convention and transitional legislature of Tunisia and was elected on 23 October 2011.1 Decree No. 582, released on 20 May 2011, extends a one-year mandate to the NCA to write a new constitution for the republic. This commitment was also reflected in a September 18 agreement signed by Tunisia's largest political parties. Drawing from recent cases and academic literature, this paper explores key procedural questions that will confront the NCA in its first month in office.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia
109. Shaky Foundations: An Assessment of the UN's Rule Of Law Support Agenda
- Author:
- Bruce Jones and Camino Kavanagh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- As we began the process of drafting this review, citizens across the Middle East and North Africa took to the streets to demand an end to the abusive practices of the security services, more representative and responsive government institutions, the protection of their rights, greater access to economic opportunity, participation in decision-making, and access to justice. They began demanding, in short, the rule of law.
- Topic:
- Security, Cold War, Democratization, International Cooperation, Post Colonialism, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
110. Revolution in the Arab World: The Long View
- Author:
- William Zartman, Laleh Khalili, Jillian Schwedler, and Gamal Eid
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- In January and February 2011, populist uprisings toppled the authoritarian governments of Tunisia and Egypt, and similar revolts began to emerge in other Arab states, including Bahrain, Libya, Morocco, Syria, and Yemen. An article in the 18 March 2011 issue of the Chronicle Review by Ursula Lindsey, "The Suddenly New Study of Egypt," addressed how these events had turned the study of persistent authoritarianism in the Arab world on its head. No longer, for example, could scholars point to how Egyptians and other Arabs tend to engage in one of two extremes: political apathy or political violence. Lindsey also suggested that scholars shift their focus away from the power of elites to the strength of ordinary people and grass-roots movements, or retool their scholarship to allow for, in the case of Egypt, more emphasis on groups other than the Muslim Brotherhood as significant sources of opposition.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
111. Extending Libya's Transitional Period: Capitalizing on the Constitutional Moment
- Author:
- Jason Gluck
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The National Transitional Council (NTC) new Constitutional Declaration is a critical development in Libya's transition to democracy. But while most features of the document are very positive, the relatively short timeline for the transition may create significant challenges.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and North Africa
112. Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East
- Author:
- Mark Sedra
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The events of the Arab Spring are a unique and unprecedented opportunity for democratic political change for the Middle East and North Africa, but the political transitions in that region remain fragile. The United States and other external actors can help the new democratic regimes by supporting their efforts at security sector reform (SSR).
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
113. Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of “big-man” politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa's governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semi-authoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Arabia, Nigeria, and Zambia
114. Arab Monarchies: Chance for Reform, Yet Unmet
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Marwan Muasher
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Contrary to what ongoing protests across the Middle East and North Africa might imply, monarchs and ruling families in the Arab world still enjoy an extraordinary degree of legitimacy in the eyes of their people. Most citizens of Arab monarchies want to see changes within their ruling governments, not complete regime change. This in turn affords those rulers an opportunity to embark on a path of far-reaching political reform without losing their thrones—all the while gaining acclaim at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
115. From Inspiration to Aspiration: Turkey in the New Middle East
- Author:
- Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- With democratic change struggling to take root in the Arab world even after the fall of several autocratic regimes, the question naturally arises whether Turkey can serve as a model for those who hope to usher the region through the difficult transition to a more democratic order.
- Topic:
- NATO, Democratization, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
116. Challenges of Egypt's Economic Transition
- Author:
- Ibrahim Saif
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian economy is going through a critical period as the country transitions to democracy. While the shift from authoritarianism is certainly welcome, it has inevitably incited instability unknown to Egypt for the past thirty years. The implementation of economic reform amid this uncertainty is particularly challenging as political demands take precedence. The state attempted several times to revive the Egyptian economy since the Infitah, or “open door,” policy initiated by President Anwar Sadat in the mid-1970s. Successive, though unsuccessful, reform programs during the 1990s contributed to the pervasive poverty that served as a central driver of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and persists today. Past experiences can provide useful lessons for what to avoid in the future, even if they are unable to impart what exactly should be done.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
117. Education for Citizenship in the Arab World: Key to the Future
- Author:
- Marwan Muasher and Muhammad Faour
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders are already shattering. In the absence of strong political parties and viable civil society structures in most of the Arab world, these uprisings are proving to be only the first step in a process that will not follow a clear path and will take years to unfold. Much trial and error will take place and the region will experience multiple ups and downs before stable political and economic systems take hold.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
118. Power to the People? Reactions to the EU's response to the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Jamie Balfour-Paul
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The EU has a long history of co-operation with the Arab region. Its economic and security interests in the region are considerable. In line with the European Consensus on Development, respect for human rights and democracy have been explicit values within EU development policies. Past EU co-operation in the region, especially in health and education, has achieved successes and enabled people to claim certain rights.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
119. Iraq's Uncertain Future: Elections and Beyond
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As a rule, Iraq's post-Saddam elections have tended to magnify pre-existing negative trends. The parliamentary polls to be held on 7 March are no exception. The focus on electoral politics is good, no doubt, but the run-up has highlighted deep-seated problems that threaten the fragile recovery: recurring election-related violence; ethnic tensions over Kirkuk; the re-emergence of sectarianism; and blatant political manipulation of state institutions. The most egregious development was the decision to disqualify over 500 candidates, a dangerous, arbitrary step lacking due process, yet endorsed by the Shiite ruling parties. Under normal circumstances, that alone might have sufficed to discredit the elections. But these are not normal circumstances, and for the sake of Iraq's stability, the elections must go on. At a minimum, however, the international community should ramp up its electoral monitoring and define clear red lines that need to be respected if the results are to be considered legitimate. And it should press the next government to seriously tackle the issue – long-neglected yet never more critical – of national reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
120. Iraqi Voices Entering 2010
- Author:
- Rusty Barber and William B. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Successful attacks on key government buildings underscore worries about whether Iraqis can manage their own security. They mask, however, something new in Iraqi society: an emerging vox populi that found potent expression in provincial elections last January, despite the odds. As national elections approach in March, political leaders are realizing that they ignore this growing voice at their peril. Aware that American attention is shifting towards other problems at home and abroad, Iraqis are nervously contemplating how much U.S. support they can expect going forward in their fragile experiment in democratic governance. The U.S. role in helping Iraqis prepare for national elections has been crucial and largely welcome—it should continue through the transition to a new government. Successful complete withdrawal by 2012 depends on an Iraqi government that is responsive to its people’s basic needs and capable of evolving peacefully via fair elections. Longer term, there are several critical areas on which a distracted and resource stretched America should focus. These include intensifying efforts to help Arabs and Kurds resolve disputes and forestall the need for an extended U.S. military presence in northern Iraq. Helping Iraq protect its borders – a vulnerability highlighted by Iran’s recent incursion—and nudging the Gulf Arab states to more actively engage Iraq as an emerging partner in regional security and economic structures will also be key to stability inside and beyond Iraq’s borders. If water is the “new oil” in terms of its resource value and potential to create conflict, that future is now playing out in Iraq. Shortages and poor quality are already causing serious health and economic problems, displacement and raising tensions with Iraq’s neighbors. The U.S. can help here on both the diplomatic and technical sides of the issue.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
121. Promise, Peril for Iraq's New Government: Interview with Joost Hiltermann
- Author:
- Bernard Gwertzman (interviewer)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- After nine months of political wrangling, Iraq's parliament confirmed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's new coalition government December 21. Though the government is "a good basis for setting out," says Iraq expert Joost Hiltermann, there's much uncertainty about how cohesive it will be and whether the inclusive government formed can govern. Hiltermann says there are questions about who will head the three major security ministries, whether a new National Council for Strategic Policy--designed as a "real check" against Maliki's power--will be approved by parliament, and whether Ayad Allawi, who headed the Iraqiya bloc that won the most seats in the election, will want to head that council. The United States pushed a power-sharing agreement "that went beyond the sharing of ministerial positions," says Hiltermann, but it remains to be seen whether various factions, including the prime minister and his allies, will allow that to happen.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Government, Politics, Governance, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
122. Deciphering Egypt's Transition: What do Egypt's botched elections mean for the EU?
- Author:
- Timo Behr
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Egypt has arrived at a crossroads. After almost three decades in power, the Mubarak era is coming to an end. With President Hosni Mubarak's health reportedly deteriorating, the stage is set for an uncertain transition. Egypt's botched parliamentary elections have been the first act in this succession drama, paving the way for next year's decisive presidential elections. As the Middle East's traditional powerhouse, the outcome of this transition process is going to have important repercussions that will be felt far beyond Egypt's borders.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
123. Patterns of Power. The EU's External Steering Techniques at Work - The Case of Democratization Policies in Morocco
- Author:
- David Budde and Mathias Großklaus
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- This paper conceptualizes a framework of political steering that includes modern conceptions of power as formulated by Foucault, Habermas, Bourdieu and others and applies it to the empirical analysis of the EU neighborhood policies. Analyzing the promotion of human rights and democracy as part of a comprehensive security strategy in Morocco since 2003, the authors scrutinize the use and the resonance of hierarchic, indirect and soft steering modes in EU external governance in the Southern Mediterranean. The findings suggest that Europe employs a complex strategy that targets governing officials, civil society actors and society at large, each with a respective mix of steering modes. Whereas classic incentives failed to initiate reforms at the government level, they proved effective in empowering Moroccan civil society actors. Soft modes are shown to play a decisive role in shaping the self-image of the administration officials vis-à-vis the EU and the parameters of public discourse on human rights and democracy, thus allowing for non-governmental actors to encroach on the government and demand democratic reforms. The integrated perspective on steering mechanisms in EU neighborhood policies thereby reveals the need to further explore micro-techniques of power in external governance analysis.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Morocco
124. Summer Heats Up in Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Six weeks after the pro-West March 14 coalition defeated the Hizballah-led alliance in Lebanon's parliamentary elections, no new government has been formed in Beirut. Although March 14 leader Saad Hariri was given a mandate back in early June to become prime minister and form a cabinet, he has still not completed the sensitive and contentious negotiations with the opposition. Hariri's difficulties in allocating seats among his coalition allies and political adversaries were anticipated, and to a certain extent are routine for Lebanon. But the calm that followed the free and fair elections is eroding, as Hizballah and its allies in Damascus press for more political concessions from Hariri. These developments, coupled with the apparent failure of Saudi-Syrian reconciliation efforts, are elevating tensions, threatening a banner tourism season, and raising the possibility of a return to violence in Beirut.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
125. Iraqi Kurds Go to the Polls: Is Change Possible?
- Author:
- J. Scott Carpenter and Ahmed Ali
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 25, Iraqi Kurds go to the polls to vote in a joint parliamentary and presidential election. Although a heated competition in January produced massive change at the provincial level throughout the rest of Iraq, the electoral system produced by the incumbent Iraqi Kurdistan parliament prevents such sweeping changes in the north. Both the current coalition governing the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the current KRG president, Masoud Barzani, will most likely be reelected. Despite the lack of change, the postelection period will create an opportunity for Baghdad, Washington, and the KRG to resolve outstanding issues that cause increased tension between Arabs and Kurds. Resolution can occur only if all parties take advantage of new political openings, however narrow.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
126. Justice Interrupted: Historical Perspectives on Promoting Democracy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Elizabeth F. Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Foreign affairs experts routinely use historical analogy to develop and justify policy. However, as professional historians have long noted, attractive analogies often lead to bad policies. Officials regularly choose analogies that neglect or distort the historical case they aim to illuminate. Nonetheless, history can be used effectively in international relations. To do so, practitioners must first recognize the difference between historical analogy and precedent. Historical precedent, drawn from the past of the region in question, is a safer guide to policy than historical analogy, which is based on comparisons to events in other regions. Because historical precedent is a self-limiting form of analogy restricted to a certain place, people, and time, it provides a better indication of how a certain society understands and responds to a given situation. The recent U.S. intervention in Iraq highlights the misuses of history: American leaders employed analogies to World War II to justify the invasion and to predict success in establishing a democratic regime after. These analogies proved to be a poor guide to nation building in the short term. In the long term, they have deeply aggravated U.S. relations with Iraqis and the rest of the Arab world. A more effective use of history would have been to refer to the precedent of World War I, a crucial moment when American policy could have supported indigenous Arab constitutional democracy—but, fatefully, did not. For the new administration, the Arabs' experience of “justice interrupted” after World War I can still be a useful touchstone for promoting democracy in the region. This precedent alerts us that foreign intervention can spark a deep-seated and negative political reaction in the postcolonial Arab world and that reform in Arab politics must begin with respect for national sovereignty. It also reminds us that constitutionalism and the desire to participate in the community of international law are enduring values in Arab politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
127. The Kurds in Syria: Fueling Separatist Movements in the Region?
- Author:
- Radwan Ziadeh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Kurds in Syria have been denied basic social, cultural, and political rights, in many cases stemming from the Syrian state's refusal to grant citizenship.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Arabia
128. "Fixing Broken Windows": Security Sector Reform in Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen
- Author:
- Yezid Sayigh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As they emerge from conflict, states can rarely commence the arduous task of reconstruction and consolidate their governments until they undertake extensive restructuring of their security forces. Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen are all fractured, quasi-democratic states with divided societies, and deep disagreement over what constitutes the national interest. Successful reform in each will require security institutions that answer to democratically-elected civilian leaders, but the U.S. and European approach has thus far focused largely on providing military training and equipment, targeted toward counterterrorist capabilities.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Lebanon
129. Yemen: Avoiding a Downward Spiral
- Author:
- Christopher Boucek
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Yemen faces a great and growing number of challenges that endanger its political future and threaten its neighbors on the Arabian Peninsula. War, terror- ism, a deepening secessionist movement, and interconnected economic and demographic trends have the potential to overwhelm the Yemeni government, jeopardizing domestic stability and security across the region. Yemen's oil—the source of over 75 percent of its income—is quickly running out, and the country has no apparent way to transition to a post-oil economy. The dire economic situation makes it increasingly difficult for the government to deliver the funds needed to hold the country together.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Development, Oil, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Arabia
130. Lebanon's Unstable Equilibrium
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanon's recently announced national unity government has eased fears that the country would once again be mired in a dangerous political stalemate. Yet, despite the recent breakthrough, Lebanon's unstable equilibrium -- marked by both internal and regional tensions -- could still devolve into serious violence. Deep seated sectarian animosities persist, raising the prospects for political instability and civil strife if unaddressed. Regionally, mounting tensions with Israel raise the worrisome possibility of isolated border incidents spiraling into more serious conflict. Taken together these two underlying challenges to stability -- internal civil unrest and regional conflict with Israel -- could undermine Lebanon's fragile peace. This paper will examine internal challenges to Lebanon's stability.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon
131. Between Government and Opposition: The Case of the Yemeni Congregation for Reform
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Like Islamist parties across the Arab world, Yemen's Islamist Congregation for Reform (Islah) has a religious ideology and platform. Islah participates in legal politics in hopes of accomplishing constitutional and socioeconomic reforms, and over time it has committed itself to upholding democratic procedures internally as well as externally.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia
132. Bush, Clausewitz, and the Grand Strategic Imperative: Keeping Political Ends Primary
- Author:
- Bryan Groves
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
- Abstract:
- As President George W. Bush relinquishes the reigns as Commander-in-Chief to President Barak Obama, it is fitting to reflect on how the country will remember President Bush in years to come. Whether or not one agrees with his decision to commit U.S. forces to military action against Saddam Hussein and his Ba'ath Party regime in Iraq, it is clear that Bush's legacy will largly be determined by how Iraq turns out--whether as a stable, free, and peace-loving democracy or something short of that. There is certainly plenty of room for continued improvement in the conditions on the ground and ample time for the political, security, and economic situation to yet deteriorate. Yet, since "The Surge" and the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq, developments in Iraq have taken a fundamentally and undeniably positive turn.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
133. Iraq's Provincial Elections: The Stakes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 31 January, Iraqis will head to the polls in fourteen of eighteen governorates to elect new provincial councils. The stakes are considerable. Whereas the January 2005 elections helped put Iraq on the path to all-out civil war, these polls could represent another, far more peaceful turning point. They will serve several important objectives: refreshing local governance; testing the strength of various parties; and serving as a bellwether for nationwide political trends. In several governorates, new parties or parties that failed to run four years ago may oust, or at least reduce the dominance of, a handful of dominant parties whose rule has been marred by pervasive mismanagement and corruption. This in itself would be a positive change with far-reaching consequences as the nation braces for parliamentary elections later in 2009.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Civil War, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
134. EU Democracy Promotion in the Mediterranean. Cooperation against All Odds?
- Author:
- Vera van Hüllen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- Focusing on the Euro-Mediterranean relations since the early 1990s, this paper investigates in how far the EU has been able to shape its relations with third countries according to its democracy promotion policy. The paper traces the evolution of the EU's provisions for democracy promotion and compares the implementation of political dialogue and democracy assistance with seven (semi-)authoritarian regimes (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia) since the early 1990s. A clear regional trend to more intensive cooperation lends credibility to the claim that the EU possesses a certain agenda setting power in international relations. A systematic comparison across countries and over time explores the explanatory power of interdependence, political liberalisation, and statehood for the remaining country variation. The paper finds that the degree of political liberalisation in target countries is the most important scope condition for cooperation in the field of democracy promotion and points to the need of further investigating (domestic) factors to account for the EU's differential 'normative power' in international relations.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Arabia, Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia
135. Maliki's Iraq between Two Elections
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer and Sam Parker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In meetings conducted in Baghdad in May 2009, senior Iraqi leaders indicated how they interpret January's provincial election results, expressed concerns about the recent downturn in security, lamented the tremendous financial pressure the government is feeling due to the decline in oil prices, and projected their hopes for national elections slated for 30 January 2010. The Iraq is, numbering about 20, represented the highest level of nearly all of the main Iraqi political factions, including leaders in the Council of Representatives (COR), members of the presidency, and top officials in the government.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia
136. Democratic Talk and the Democratic Walk: Superficial Versus Sincere Support for Illiterate Voting Rights in Lebanon
- Author:
- Daniel Corstange
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Who supports illiterate voting rights? In the diverse societies of the developing world, suffrage restrictions on illiterate people can have both class and ethnic ramifications because illiteracy correlates with poverty and often with ethnic group membership. I demonstrate how examining the overlap of ethnic population distributions helps to identify individuals for whom satisfying material interests comes at the expense of identity interests and vice-versa. The salience of ethnicity in public discourse requires people to articulate identity demands that may be inconsistent with their material interests, opening up the possibility that what they say and what they think will diverge systematically. Empirically, I use an augmented list experiment in Lebanon to distinguish between superficial and sincere support for illiterate voting rights. I show that a direct question yields a sectarian answer in which Shiites are more supportive of those rights than are Sunnis or Christians, whereas an unobtrusive question produces an answer about material deprivation in which poor people are more supportive of illiterate voting than rich people.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon
137. The Draft Party Platform of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Foray Into Political Integration or Retreat Into Old Positions?
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy and Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In the late summer 2007, amid great anticipation from Egypt's ruling elite and opposition movements, the Muslim Brotherhood distributed the first draft of a party platform to a group of intellectuals and analysts. The platform was not to serve as a document for an existing political party or even one about to be founded: the Brotherhood remains without legal recognition in Egypt and Egypt's rulers and the laws they have enacted make the prospect of legal recognition for a Brotherhood-founded party seem distant. But the Brotherhood's leadership clearly wished to signal what sort of party they would found if allowed to do so.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
138. Islamists in Politics: The Dynamics of Participation
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Islamist parties and movements in Arab countries that have strategically chosen to participate in the legal political process, acknowledging the legitimacy of the existing constitutional framework, have gained great political importance. Their participation raises two major questions: are they truly committed to democracy? And will participation have a positive, moderating influence on their positions, pushing them to focus on public policy platforms rather than ideological debates?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
139. Don't Give Up on Democracy Promotion
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown, Amr Hamzawy, and Michele Dunne
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Even as the United States is preoccupied with how to stabilize and withdraw from Iraq, it risks missing another important opportunity to promote democracy in the Middle East. Among Arab countries Egypt is uniquely positioned to make a transition from authoritarian rule to a more liberal system and eventually to democracy. A looming presidential succession in Egypt makes such changes more feasible. But after several years of modest reforms, the Egyptian government is now backtracking and enshrining illiberal measures in its revised constitution. The United States faces a critical decision about whether to pursue reform seriously with Egypt or to abandon the project of promoting Arab democracy, at least for now.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil Society, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
140. Incumbent Regimes and the "King's Dilemma" in the Arab World: Promise and Threat of Managed Reform
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Incumbent regimes in the Arab world, monarchical and republican alike, have weathered the period of intense, worldwide political change that has followed the end of the Cold War without giving up much of their power. Though not completely untouched by events that have shaken the rest of the world, most Arab regimes have survived the wave of political transformation that has engulfed the rest of the world relatively intact. Many regimes have carried out reforms, but the reforms have been directed at modernizing the economy and addressing social issues rather than redistributing power in the political system. Indeed, most regimes that talk of political reform are in reality avoiding it. To be sure, there have been some political changes: For example, more political parties exist today in most Arab countries than fifteen years ago, and more countries hold elections of varying quality. Access to information and the quality of political debate have increased in many countries as well. Power, however, remains firmly where it was: in the hands of kings and presidents.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
141. The Draft Party Platform of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Foray Into Political Integration or Retreat Into Old Positions?
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In the late summer 2007, amid great anticipation from Egypt's ruling elite and opposition movements, the Muslim Brotherhood distributed the first draft of a party platform to a group of intellectuals and analysts. The platform was not to serve as a document for an existing political party or even one about to be founded: the Brotherhood remains without legal recognition in Egypt and Egypt's rulers and the laws they have enacted make the prospect of legal recognition for a Brotherhood-founded party seem distant. But the Brotherhood's leadership clearly wished to signal what sort of party they would found if allowed to do so.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
142. Requiem for Palestinian Reform: Clear Lessons from a Troubled Record
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Never has the cause of political reform in the Arab world received as strong verbal support— on both the international and domestic political levels—as it did in Palestine between 2002 and 2006. And while much of the Palestinian reform agenda remained unrealized, Palestinian governance changed in fundamental ways during the reform wave. But international backers of reform in particular had a remarkably short-term focus, a highly personalized view of the process, and a very instrumental view of reform, leading them to turn harshly against the achievements of the Palestinian reform movement when it brought unexpected results. What can this combination of success and disillusioned failure teach us about the cause of Arab political reform?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
143. PolicyWatch #1298: Democracy in Slow Motion: Oman Goes to the Polls
- Author:
- J. Scott Carpenter and Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, around 400,000 Omani men and women are expected to vote in elections for eighty-five seats on the nation\'s Majlis al-Shura, or Consultative Council. Among the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf region, Oman -- a key U.S. ally and exporter of oil and gas, strategically positioned opposite Iran -- is often considered to be the most politically progressive, perhaps even evolving slowly toward a constitutional monarchy. But the country remains dominated by its ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, and for now, the council is limited to advice on public services and infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Politics, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Oman
144. Electing the Lebanese President
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- The meeting of the Lebanese Parliament on Tuesday 23 October 2007 to elect a new President of the Republic has been adjourned to 21 November. After earlier attempts to hold the vote failed to take place and without any parliamentary consensus on procedures or candidates, this IFES Lebanon briefing paper outlines some of the key constitutional and procedural issues that may arise.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon
145. Falling In Line on Israel
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The election of a Democratic majority in the House and Senate is unlikely to result in any serious challenge to the Bush administration's support for Israeli attacks against the civilian populations of its Arab neighbors and the Israeli government's ongoing violations of international humanitarian law.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Humanitarian Aid, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
146. Lebanon: Finding a Path from Deadlock to Democracy
- Author:
- Julia Choucair
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is arguably the most democratic Arab state. Under parliamentary rule since becoming independent in 1943, it has regular elections, numerous political parties, and relatively free and lively news media. Lebanon also has one of the most complex political systems in the Middle East, based on the premise that a careful balance in all aspects of political life must be maintained among the seventeen recognized religious communities. While this confessional system has spared Lebanon the authoritarianism experienced by many Arab regimes in the twentieth century, paradoxically it has also prevented the transition to a truly democratic state. Nor has the confessional system eliminated the factional strife it was designed to avoid.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon
147. Reflections on Vietnam and the Iraq War
- Author:
- Daniel Ellsberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- I'm often asked whether there aren't big differences between the Iraq War and Vietnam. And I'm always quick to say, of course, there are differences. In Iraq, it's a dry heat. And the language that none of our troops or diplomats speak is Arabic rather than Vietnamese.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Human Rights, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Vietnam, and Arabia
148. Final Report: National Democratic Institute Final Report on the Palestinian Presidential Election, Jan. 9, 2005
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- At the invitation of the Palestinian Central Election Commission (CEC), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), in partnership with The Carter Center (TCC), organized a 76- member international delegation to monitor the January 2005 Palestinian presidential election. The delegation was led by former United States President Jimmy Carter, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt and former New Jersey Governor and United States Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christine Todd Whitman, and supported by a grant from the United States Agency for International Development.
- Topic:
- Civil Society and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
149. Masque of Democracy: Iraqi Election System Still Disfavors Sunni Arabs, Favors Kurds
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- In its National Strategy for Victory in Iraq the Bush administration recognizes that the key to defusing the insurgency is drawing the Sunni Arab community into the political process. And it correctly sees that this requires "inclusive institutions that offer power-sharing mechanisms and minority protections." As the strategy notes: such institutions would "demonstrate to disaffected Sunnis that they have influence and the ability to protect their interests in a democratic Iraq." Unfortunately, the administration finds it difficult to apply this precept where it would matter most: in the election process.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan
150. Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible. Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect. The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
151. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
152. Greater Middle East Initiative Off to a False Start
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration is preparing to launch a “Greater Middle East Initiative” at the G-8 summit meeting in June. The plan is to bring the United States, Europe, and the Middle East together around a set of commitments to help transform the region politically and economically. The time is indeed opportune for engagement on regional reform, but as planned, the initiative fails to establish a basis for genuine partnership and does little to address the real challenges of Arab democratization. The administration should rethink its approach and start a new process of genuine consultations to come to an agreement on how all three sides can work cooperatively to address the regional problems that threaten the security of Arab societies and the West.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
153. Middle Eastern Democracy: Is Civil Society the Answer?
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Iraq is obviously the overwhelming focus of the Bush administration's policy of attempting to transform the Middle East into a zone of liberal democracies. The United States is also trying to formulate a second, more gradual track of democracy promotion for the authoritarian and semiauthoritarian Arab states that make up the rest of the region. Strengthening civil society is often proposed as a key element of a U.S. strategy for this second track of Middle Eastern democracy promotion.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
154. Women's Rights and Democracy in the Arab World
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- THE U.S. GOVERNMENT HAS MADE THE PROMOTION OF WOMEN'S RIGHTS and the empowerment of women a central element of its new campaign to modernize and democratize the Arab world. The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), the major program through which the United States seeks to facilitate the transformation of the Arab world, makes women's rights one of its priorities. No official U.S. speech about reform in the Middle East fails to mention the cause of women's rights. And the issue of women is sure to be raised at meetings where Middle East affairs are discussed, regardless of the main purpose of the gathering.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
155. Political Reform in the Arab World: A New Ferment?
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- IN THE THREE YEARS SINCE THE TERRORIST ATTACKS of September 11, 2001, the question of Arab reform not only has become closely linked in the minds of Western policy makers to the fight against Al Qaeda, but also has become a dominant theme of discussion in the region itself. Arab satellite television stations broadcast talk shows featuring vigorous discussions about the persistence of authoritarian rule in Arab countries and the incompetence of incumbent regimes. The opinion pages of Arab newspapers are replete with articles championing democratic reform as the only way to strengthen the region against Western control, or, conversely, to connect it with globalization and “modernity.” Civil society groups, political parties, and even business organizations are promulgating reform manifestos with increasing regularity. Political reform is also the focus of heated debates in unexpected circles such as the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and the Saudi royal family. All Arab governments have acknowledged the need for reform in principle (some have even talked of democracy), and many have announced their own reform initiatives.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Arab Countries, and Egypt
156. Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The removal of the Ba'ath regime in 2003 opened a Pandora's box of long-suppressed aspirations, none as potentially explosive as the Kurds' demand, expressed publicly and with growing impatience, for wide-ranging autonomy in a region of their own, including the oil- rich governorate of Kirkuk. If mismanaged, the Kurdish question could fatally undermine the political transition and lead to renewed violence. Kurdish leaders need to speak more candidly with their followers about the compromises they privately acknowledge are required, and the international community needs to work more proactively to help seal the historic deal.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Arabia, and Kirkuk
157. Establishing a Stable Democratic Constitutional Structure in Iraq: Some Basic Considerations
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- As the situation in Iraq continues to stabilize, the people of Iraq will turn to the task of reconstituting an Iraqi state. One of the first steps in this process will be to design, agree upon, and implement a new constitutional structure. While drafting a new constitution is a difficult and contentious process for any country, the challenges are substantially magnified for Iraq given its complex mosaic of ethnic and religious identities, the history of repression under Saddam Hussein, the necessary presence of American forces, and Iraq's complex relations with its neighboring states.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
158. Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform
- Author:
- Daniel Brumberg
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- No American administration has talked more about democracy in the Middle East than the Bush administration. The president and his advisors have spoken optimistically about a post-Saddam democracy in Iraq, one that might eventually become a veritable light to other Arab nations. This grand vision assumes that sooner or later, advocates of democracy throughout the Middle East will demand the same freedoms and rights that Iraqis are now claiming. Yet, however inspiring this vision appears, the actual reform plan that the administration has thus far set out is unlikely to produce radical changes in the Arab world. Regardless of how dramatic the change in Baghdad is, when it comes to our friends in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Yemen, the administration's reform plan points to evolution rather than revolution.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Egypt
159. Promoting Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since early last year, the Bush administration has paid unaccustomed attention to the issue of democracy in the Middle East. Following September 11, many U. S. officials have worried that the authoritarianism of most Arab regimes has bred frustration in their countries, and this frustration has in turn favored the growth of terrorist organizations. U.S. discussions about the need for democracy in the Middle East have triggered a strong negative reaction by Arab commentators and journalists, including in discussions of democracy in the Arab press. However, very little of this writing has dealt with the problem of democracy in the real sense—that is, with the issue of how Arab governments relate to their citizens now and how they should relate to their citizens in the future. Instead, Arab commentators have treated democracy as a foreign policy issue, asking why the United States is suddenly discussing democracy in the Arab world and what true intentions it is trying to hide behind the smoke screen of democracy talk. The debate in the Arab press reveals some of the obstacles that the United States faces as it attempts to define its new pro-democracy role in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
160. The Challenge of Political Reform: Jordanian Democratisation and Regional Instability
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Navigating the treacherous shoals of the Iraq conflict with a steady hand, Jordan appears to have emerged unscathed from the turbulent months just past. The Hashemite Kingdom adjusted its rhetoric to fit the public mood while backing U.S. policy in Iraq and in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, managed to overcome its principal weaknesses and now faces the post-war world with renewed confidence and authority.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Demographics, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan
161. Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, and Arab Countries
162. The European Union and Democracy in the Arab-Muslim World
- Author:
- Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Democracy should be conceived as an important element of European strategic policy towards North Africa and the Middle East, but the complex prerequisites to its stability- enhancing potentiality also recognised. While EU policy has come to incorporate such a perspective, its approach to democracy promotion in the Arab-Muslim world has remained tentative and nebulous in its conceptualisation of how stable and sustainable political change can best be encouraged. A summary of European democracy and human rights aid projects reveals the notable extent to which these have expanded, but also raises concerns over imbalances in the profile of EU political aid. In sum, this calls for a number of changes to EU policy that broaden the understanding of how different levels of policy instruments can dovetail together in a more comprehensive and sophisticated approach to democracy promotion.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
163. For a State of Peace: Conflict and the Future of Democracy in Sudan
- Author:
- Abdelwahab El-Affendi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
- Abstract:
- Sudan – Africa's largest country (area: 2.5 million square kilometres; population: 36 million) – has been described as a microcosm of the continent, as it embodies the continent's characteristic ethnic and religious diversity. The majority of its inhabitants (70 per cent) are Muslim. The rest adhere to traditional African beliefs (25 per cent) or various Christian denominations (5 per cent). The majority of Muslims are Arabic speaking (though not all are ethnically Arab), and Arabic is both the official language and the lingua franca. However, over 500 ethnic groups live in Sudan, and some 75 languages are spoken in the country. The bulk of the Arabic-speaking Muslims live in the north, while the south is inhabited by a predominantly non-Arab and non-Muslim population.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Sudan, Middle East, and Arabia