Political Geography: Arabia / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Democratization

1. In the Crossfire: Islamists' Travails in Tunisia

Author:: Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Tunisia is struggling with insecurity, social tensions, and ideological divisions three years after President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali was ousted during a popular uprising. But the country is making progress on the path to democracy. Islamist and secular politicians have struck a potentially landmark agreement that could get Tunisia's democratic transition back on track. To solidify gains and ensure that a successful Tunisian experiment reverberates across the Arab world, socioeconomic struggles that fuel protests and radicalism must be confronted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

2. Process Lessons Learned in Yemen's National Dialogue

Author:: Erica Gaston
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On January 25, Yemen's National Dialogue Conference (NDC) closed after more than ten months of deliberation. The flagship process within Yemen's post-Arab Spring transition, the NDC has been lauded as a positive model of inclusive and constructive negotiation. In Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain, and Sudan, similar national dialogue processes have been mooted or are under way. The NDC made significant progress on a daunting range of governance, structural, and social contract issues. It broke through political and social barriers to engage a broader scope of political parties, actors, and civil society–a precedent that will be difficult to roll back. Despite these achievements, the NDC missed its concluding deadline because of a deadlock over the fundamental dilemma: the future status for southern Yemen and the structure of the Yemeni state. A partial solution was brokered, but only by extending the transition process and leaving tough issues to be resolved later. Meanwhile, other challenges, from unemployment to serious humanitarian shortfalls to rampant insecurity, also remain unresolved. The public has grown increasingly skeptical that either the NDC or the transition process will result in a government that responds to their needs. The verdict is out on the ultimate legacy of the NDC. Even at this early stage, however, the hurdles the NDC has faced may provide lessons for other countries considering such processes. At a minimum, exploring how certain process elements may have contributed to achieving the NDC's goals or not might suggest further areas for research, reflection, or continued engagement in the next stages of transition. Other countries considering a national dialogue should streamline the agenda to the extent possible, weighing carefully which political issues do or do not lend themselves to a large-scale public forum, and ensure an appropriate balance between the national dialogue and other transitional processes.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Insurgency, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Yemen and Arabia

3. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

4. Promoting Inclusive Growth in Arab Countries: Rural and Regional Development and Inequality in Tunisia

Author:: Mongi Boughzala and Mohamed Tlili Hamdi
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Regional disparities and inequality between the rural and the urban areas in Tunisia have been persistently large and perceived as a big injustice. The main regions that did not receive an equitable share from the country's economic growth, as compared to the coastal regions that are highly urbanized, are the predominantly rural western regions. Their youth often have to migrate to the cities to look for work and most of them end up with low-paying and frustrating jobs in the informal sector. The more educated among them face a very uncertain outlook and the highest rate of unemployment. This bias is strongest for female workers and university graduates living in the poor rural regions. The purpose of this paper is to study the underlying causes and factors of these disparities and to discuss policies and measures that may allow these regions to benefit from faster and more inclusive growth.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:: Africa, Arabia, and Tunisia

5. Jordan: The Geopolitical Service Provider

Author:: Emmanuel Comolet
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Jordan is in the eye of the Arab cyclone. It remains stable while surrounded by chaotic political situations in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the Sinai Peninsula. Jordan has not experienced the massive demonstrations aimed at regime change that have been seen elsewhere in the region, and its relative stability has enabled it to cash in on the geo-political services it provides. These services include: hosting refugees from Palestine, Iraq or Syria; remaining a reliable ally for many international powers; featuring a strong army that plays a stabilizing role in the region; serving as an intermediary when neighboring countries need a host or a dealmaker; and providing qualified Jordanian workers to fill open vacancies for companies and countries, especially in the Gulf. The current stability in Jordan matches well its historic capacity to resist and adapt to shocks. However, the contemporary situation of the labor market reveals that the weaknesses observed in the countries having experienced revolutions (e.g., Tunisia and Egypt) are also present in Jordan; labor market participation is low with very few women active, and the unemployment rate of educated young people is worrisome. Both the number of Jordanians working abroad and the number of migrant workers in Jordan show the discrepancy between demand and supply of labor in Jordan. This could become problematic, since the economic situation has been worsening, notably with fewer public jobs available. Hence there is a need for international donors to keep supporting Jordan in a difficult regional environment, for the government of Jordan to wittily manage the balance between Transjordanians and West Bankers in the near future and for new workers to alter their expectations in searching for opportunities outside the public sector.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia

6. Egypt's Difficult Transition: Why the International Community Must Stay Economically Engaged

Author:: Hafez Ghanem
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This paper presents a political-economy analysis of the Egyptian transition experience from the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 until the end of 2013, and considers options for the future. Establishing a stable democracy in a country with weak institutions and no democratic culture will take years or even decades. With the benefit of hindsight, most observers were too optimistic in 2011 when they predicted that the “Arab Spring” would quickly lead to democracy. They are probably too pessimistic today when they declare the failure of Egypt's democratic transition. The millions of Egyptians who swarmed into Tahrir Square in January 2011 demanding that Mubarak step down, and then again in June 2013 asking for the overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi, have learned how to use “people power.” A wall of fear has been broken, and it would be difficult for another autocratic regime to succeed in ruling Egypt for an extended period of time.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Islam, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

7. Mediating Transition in Yemen: Achievements and Lessons

Author:: Steven A. Zyck
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Yemen remains the only site of an Arab Spring uprising that has ended in a negotiated agreement and a structured, internationally supported transition process. As Jamal Benomar, the United Nations Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen, stated, “Yemen was definitely heading towards a Syria-type scenario” before international actors, including the United Nations (UN), helped to shepherd a complex transition process, which continues at the time of writing. Benomar, with support from a wide array of stakeholders, helped avert an escalating conflict in Yemen by stepping in to offer the good offices of the UN secretarygeneral without waiting for the UN Security Council or the embattled Yemeni regime to demand UN action. Benomar's interventions— including bringing Yemen's major political parties together amid the uprising—helped ensure that the country did not devolve into civil war when President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down after thirty-three years in power. That is, the UN opened a space for dialogue where none had previously been considered possible.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Treaties and Agreements, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

8. After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Arab Spring had a military dimension in both its targets—regimes with a military background—and its outcomes. Where the armed forces in their entirety or partially sided with the protesters regime change succeeded; where they did not, it failed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

9. Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond

Author:: Mohammed El-Katiri
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

10. The EU's Democracy Promotion and the Mediterranean Neighbors Orientation, Ownership and Dialogue in Jordan and Turkey, Ann-Kristin Jonasson

Author:: Suna Gülfer Ihlamur-öner
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The EU has been involved in democracy promotion in the Mediterranean for many years. However, it is facing criticism from its members and partners for prioritizing security and stability over democracy. Particularly following the Arab uprisings, the effectiveness of the EU's efforts have increasingly been called into question and demands for a new approach towards democratization in the Mediterranean are growing. Ann-Kristin Jonasson's book, The EU's Democracy Promotion and the Mediterranean Neighbors: Orientation, Ownership and Dialogue in Jordan and Turkey, systematically evaluates the EU's democratization efforts by focusing on democracy promotion in two Mediterranean countries, Jordan and Turkey, and effectively addresses the major pitfalls in the EU's strategy. Therefore, it is a timely contribution as the Arab revolutions have forced us to reconsider the prospects for democratization in the region.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Turkey, Arabia, and Jordan

11. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Future of Political Islam in Egypt

Author:: Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The current turmoil in Egypt—including social strife, polarization, and violence—has cast shadows on the potential for Islamist integration as well as the regime's ability to achieve political stability. Shifting external and internal dynamics of Islamist organizations indicate five possible scenarios for the future of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its path will have far-reaching implications for political Islam and democratization in Egypt.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, and Islam
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

12. Qatar and the Arab Spring: Policy Drivers and Regional Implications

Author:: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: During the Arab Spring, Qatar moved away from its traditional foreign policy role as diplomatic mediator to embrace change in the Middle East and North Africa and support transitioning states. Regional actors viewed Qatar's approach as overreaching, and skepticism of Doha's policy motivations increased. Qatar's new leadership, which came to power in June 2013, is adapting by reverting to a more pragmatic foreign policy and addressing the fallout from its support for Islamist movements in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar

13. Elections en Tunisie: vieilles blessures, nouvelles craintes

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Le duel qui oppose le président sortant Moncef Marzouki à l'ancien chef de gouvernement Béji Caïd Essebsi dans le cadre du second tour de la présidentielle, prévu le 21 décembre 2014, révèle les lignes de fracture de la société tunisienne que les élites politiques croyaient avoir résorbées grâce à leur sens du consensus et du compromis. La cartographie électorale des législatives et du premier tour montre une Tunisie divisée entre un Nord en grande partie pro-Essebsi et son parti Nida Tounes, et un Sud majoritairement pro-Marzouki et favorable au parti islamiste An-Nahda. Afin d'éviter que les craintes réciproques finissent par conduire à des violences, le vainqueur de ce premier scrutin présidentiel libre et concurrentiel devra d'abord reconnaitre les inquiétudes de l'électorat du vaincu. Pouvoir exécutif et législatif devront s'engager de concert à traiter la question du déséquilibre régional et prévenir les risques de blocage institutionnel ou de répression des oppositions.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Arabia

14. No Arab Spring for Algeria

Author:: Karim Mezran and Mohsin Khan
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in 2011 passed Algeria by. While there were sporadic street demonstrations calling for political change, principally in the country's capital Algiers, they quickly petered out due to lack of support from the general public. Unlike in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, the political power system in Algeria remained intact. The autocratic government of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has been the president since 1999, retained complete control, culminating in his reelection on April 17 for a fourth term despite his obviously failing health.
Topic:: Democratization, Governance, Social Movement, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia

15. The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region. Political dynamics and the current levels of, however, are only part of the story.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

16. Talking to Arab Youth: Revolution and Counterrevolution in Egypt and Tunisia

Author:: Nur Laiq
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The political landscape of the Arab world has undergone dramatic changes since 2011, the effects of which will continue to reverberate into the foreseeable future. The overthrow of authoritarian rule in Tunisia by popular protest was followed by the collapse of longstanding regimes in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, leading many to celebrate a new dynamic between citizen and state in the Arab world. In late 2013, the situation looks quite different. The first democratically elected president in Egypt has been deposed, hundreds of his supporters killed, and the Muslim Brotherhood banned. In Tunisia, parliament has been suspended; two politicians have been assassinated; and a campaign calling for the ouster of the Islamist-led government has gained momentum. In both countries, the population is divided and the anciens régimes fight to restore the old order. Will the ideals that sparked revolution be subsumed by counterrevolution? Or will the trajectories of revolution bend toward democratic consolidation?
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Youth Culture, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, and Egypt

17. Debating the Merits of the "Turkish Model" for Democratization in the Middle East

Author:: Paul Kubicek
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:: Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:: The “Turkish model” has been upheld as a positive example for Middle Eastern countries, particularly in light of the Arab Spring. While Turkey is, in many respects, successful—it has a dynamic economy and in recent years has made great strides toward political liberalization— and the current Turkish government has high standing in the Arab world, this paper will argue that the applicability of a “Turkish model” to other settings is limited. In part, this is due to confusion over what the “Turkish model” precisely is or should be. For many years, the “Turkish model” was taken to be Kemalism, or a statist, authoritarian, secular order imposed “from above” with the goals of modernization and Westernization. More recently, the “Turkish model” would mean embracing a more moderate-type of political Islam, exemplified by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). While the AKP has proven to be successful in Turkey, it came to power in conditions very different than those that prevail in the Arab world at present. In particular, the AKP has evolved to reconcile itself to secularism in Turkey and embraced a program of Europeanization through accession talks with the European Union, an option not on the table in Arab states. Finally, a comparison of the political culture of Turkey with that in much of the Arab world reveals significant differences in values and priorities between the two cases.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

18. Arab Spring à l'algérienne

Author:: Rachid Tlemçani and Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Even though many of the socioeconomic conditions that have driven the popular Arab Spring uprisings and toppled several regimes across the Middle East have been present in Algeria as well, the Algerian regime has thus far been able to weather the winds of change. This policy brief takes a closer look at the "Algerian exception" by examining the protest movement in Algeria and why it has been more limited than elsewhere, as well as recent political "reforms" adopted in response to the protests. It argues that in addition to the experiences of the bloody decade of the 1990s, a number of factors account for the more limited protest movement in Algeria, such as the regime's larger spending power and its experience in dealing with large-scale protests. While the Algerian regime has introduced reforms over the last two years, these have been mainly cosmetic, largely consolidating the political status quo. The policy brief also briefly discusses the threat of Islamist terrorism in the Sahel region, with particular reference to the recent In Amenas hostage crisis in Algeria. As for Algeria's future evolution and prospects for political reform, fundamental change seems unlikely, at least in the short to medium term.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

19. Tunisia after Ben Ali: retooling the tools of oppression?

Author:: Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Tunisia under Ben Ali was a police state par excellence and reforming the country's internal security apparatus has thus been one of the major challenges since the long-standing autocrat's fall. This policy brief examines the various efforts to reform Tunisia's internal security system in the post-Ben Ali period and the challenges this process faces. It argues that reforms in this area have been limited so far, focusing mainly on purges rather than on broader structural or institutional reform of the country's police force. Moreover, not only have human rights violations committed by the police – despite important improvements – continued on a significant scale, but there are also concerns that the police will once again be instrumentalised for political purposes, this time by the Ennahda-led government. Indications to this effect have included in particular the seeming complacency of the police vis-à-vis the growth in religiously inspired violence. The recent killing of opposition leader Chokri Belaid in the first political assassination in Tunisia since Ben Ali's fall has further underscored the need to reform the country's internal security system.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Arabia and North Africa

20. Reforming Arab security sectors

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 2011, Arab security forces, long suspected to be inextricably linked to their respective regimes, once again became decisive political agents in their own right: agents of change, agents of repression and, in some cases, both. Their facilitation or suppression of democratic transitions has sparked a long-overdue debate on security sector reform in the Arab world. What are the main features of security sectors in the region? What are the main obstacles to reform? And why is this debate taking place only now?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia

21. Towards The Syrian Nightmare? The Critical Situation in Syria and Possible Scenarios

Author:: Ali Hussein Bakeer
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:: This report seeks to evaluate the current situation of Syria through a carefully considered analysis. It aims to navigate safely through at times a conflicting myriad of information disseminated on the media and the Internet and make a projection about the future of the Syrian state as well as describing the various scenarios that may result.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

22. Bringing Back Transitology: Democratisation in the 21st Century

Author:: Timothy D. Sisk and Dr. Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Can political and socioeconomic transitions be systematised beyond their own contexts and specificities? In examining political liberalisation attempts taking place in the early twenty-first century, notably those leading up to and in the wake of the Arab Spring, dominant perspectives have featured a conspicuous absence of the literature on transitions to democracy of the past forty or so years. For all its insights and shortcomings, the framework of transitology (a body of literature that has comparatively and through case-study analysis examined common patterns, sequences, crises and outcomes of transitional periods) has been largely eschewed. The combined effect of the emphasis on regional narratives and immediate political dynamics has stripped the understanding of a new generation of political transitions of a deeper background of transitology which carries much relevance, albeit one in need of updating in light of recent experiences.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Politics, Sociology, and Social Movement
Political Geography:: Arabia

23. Conference Report: The Maghreb in Transition

Publication Date:: 01-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Maghreb is in motion. Political changes underway across North Africa have created opportunities for more representative and transparent governance. Debates over the nature of authority and the role of the state that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago now shape political discourse. And yet, doubts remain.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa, Arabia, and North Africa

24. You Say You Want a Revolution...Then What? The Challenges of Media Training in Post-Qaddafi Libya: A First-Person Essay

Author:: Carolyn Robinson
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: CIMA announces the release of a special report, You Say You Want a Revolution … Then What?, a first-person account by veteran journalist and media trainer Carolyn Robinson of her experiences training broadcast journalists in Libya after the death of leader Moammar Qaddafi. Robinson outlines some of the unusual obstacles and challenges she faced in managing two USAID/OTI grants in Libya for Internews in the very early days after the revolution, and how her team came up with novel approaches to overcome the special circumstances they faced on the ground. Her essay is not so much about what can and should be done for media development in Libya today, but about how to structure training in chaotic post-conflict environments.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Oil, Mass Media, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

25. Stability through Change: Toward a New Political Economy in Jordan

Author:: Faysal Itani
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Although it appears Jordan has survived the Arab uprisings thus far, all is not well in the Hashemite Kingdom. Over the past twenty years, its political economy has changed profoundly, putting pressure on the foundations of regime stability. The state in Jordan has been retreating from many citizens' economic lives, shrinking its circle of privilege and patronage, and leaving the population to fend for itself in a dysfunctional economy. Worryingly, the segment of the population most affected is the monarchy's base, which sees the Palestinian-Jordanian population as benefiting from the new status quo. Today, Jordan is also coping with hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, many of whom may remain in the country long term. Yet the real danger to the monarchy's stability is not the immediate cost of refugee care but the alienation of its traditional power base.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan

26. Social Movements in the Middle East: A Sociological Analysis

Author:: Khalilollah Sardarnia
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:: The prevailing outlook among analysts before the advent of the recent social movements in North Africa and a number of Arab Middle Eastern countries indicated that the region will continue to resist the wave of democratization. The fall of several authoritarian regimes and continuity of social movements has generated serious doubts in this outlook, leading to the appearance of promising horizons for democratization. This paper argues that these social movements originate from the exacerbating legitimacy crisis of authoritarian governments and rising political, social and economic dissatisfaction of the general public, including the youth and the modern middle class. This work seeks to answer the question: what are the major sociological origins and precipitating factors influencing the advent of social movements in the Middle East and North Africa? In response, it can be argued that the advent of social movements in a number of Middle East and North African countries is rooted in the legitimacy crisis, as well as rising political, social and economic dissatisfaction of the general public, the youth and the modern middle class in recent decades. The web-based social networks and cell phones acted as precipitating factors in the massive mobilization and integration of mass protests and those of the modern middle class and the fall of a number of authoritarian regimes. These movements are notably characterized by being comprehensive, Islamic, democratic, anti-despotic, independence-seeking, and highly reliant on new information and communications technologies. The web-based social networks served as a precipitating factor in massive mobilization of the aforementioned strata within the context of an exacerbated legitimacy crisis and the gap between the state and the society rather than as a structural deep-rooted factor.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Government, Islam, and Social Movement
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

27. The Holy Trinity of Democracy, Economic Development, and Security. EU Democratization Efforts Beyond its Borders - The Case of Tunisia

Author:: Assem Dandashly
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:: The EU has been engaged in democracy promotion, human rights, and civil liberties in the Mediterranean countries for over two decades with results ranging from very limited success to total failure. The revolutions in the Arab world – that have caught the EU and Western countries by surprise – provide a window of opportunity for real democratic reforms in the region. The successful democratization in Tunisia will send positive messages to the neighboring countries. Why should the EU be more involved in supporting Tunisia's democratic transition? And what can the EU do to support Tunisia's efforts to build and reform its institutions and to move towards a consolidated democracy with a functioning market economy? Answering these research questions requires understanding the major failures of the EU in the Mediterranean region – the Union of the Mediterranean is on hold and conditionality (at least political conditionality) is problematic and questionable. Prior to the Dignity Revolution, security and stability were moving in the opposite direction to democracy –leading the EU to focus more on the former. Now, consolidating democracy, economic development, stability, and security on the EU's Southern borders are moving in the same direction. This paper argues that, first, supporting democracy is a necessary condition for guaranteeing stable and secure southern borders and, secondly, economic growth is a necessary condition for consolidating democracy and political reforms in Tunisia.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

28. The International Role in Libya's Transition

Author:: Richard L. Garwin and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Following the death of Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011, the situation in Libya fell largely out of the headlines, with the majority of reports focused on the fragile security environment there. Meanwhile, international attention has been fixed on the crisis in Syria.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria

29. The Use of Force, Crisis Diplomacy and the Responsibilities of States

Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The papers included in this report relate to a conference co-hosted by the New York University Abu Dhabi Institute, the NYU Center on International Cooperation (CIC) and the Brookings Institution on 21-22 February in Abu Dhabi on “The Use of Force, Crisis Diplomacy and the Responsibilities of States.”
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

30. The Uprisings and the Future of North Africa and the Middle East: The Vienna Seminar 2012

Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: "Seldom in the history of the Middle East and North Africa have so many changes taken place so dramatically, so quickly, and at the same time." This observation, made by a participant at the International Peace Institute's 2012 Vienna Seminar, helps explain the world's current focus on the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. The purpose of the forty-second annual Vienna Seminar was to make sense of these changes and see what steps can be taken to encourage the positive trends, and to promote peace and security in the region.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Vienna

31. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:: Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

32. Peacebuilding Efforts of Women from Afghanistan and Iraq: Lessons in Transition

Author:: Kathleen Kuehnast, Hodei Sultan, Manal Omar, and Steven E. Steiner
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In transitioning countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, women are increasingly finding their rights limited by state and religious leaders. Cultural and national stereotypes can be quickly overcome by the shared backgrounds, accomplishments, obstacles, and aspirations of women in transitioning countries. Women living in countries in transition value opportunities to network with women from other countries in similar situations. Women leaders from Afghanistan and Iraq have genuine concerns about the challenges facing women in the Arab Spring. Their valuable opinions are based on their own experiences of overcoming those challenges. It is essential that women work together and with men to further women's rights. Women must plan for a transition before it happens and have a strategy of work going into the transition process. Laws empowering and protecting women do not work if they are not enforced. International donors need a long-term view of women's programming, as much of the required work will take time. Donors should consider nonurban areas when working with women, and when possible nonelite partners, as these leaders understand the limitations of local conditions. It is possible for women's groups to find common ground with religious leaders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

33. Human rights in the smaller Gulf states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE

Author:: Joe Stork
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Human rights conditions in the five smaller Gulf states are quite poor overall. Political and economic power is the monopoly of hereditary ruling families. There is little respect for core civil and political rights such as freedom of expression, assembly and association. Peaceful dissent typically faces harsh repression. The administration of justice is highly personalised, with limited due process protections, especially in political and security-related cases. The right to participate in public affairs by way of election to offices with some authority is extremely limited; the only exception is Kuwait.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

34. Regional security co-operation in the smaller Gulf states

Author:: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This overview paper examines the challenges facing regional security co-operation in the five smaller Gulf States. It demonstrates the resilience and durability of intra-regional differences, particularly scepticism of Saudi Arabia's greater size and regional objectives. With the notable exception of Bahrain, differences of outlook have continued into the post-Arab Spring period as Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman hold significant reservations about moving toward a closer Gulf union. The Arab Spring has injected urgent new domestic considerations into a regional security complex hitherto marked by external instability. Yet the bold political action and longer-term planning that is needed to address these issues is lacking, because ruling elites prioritise short-term policies designed to ensure regime security in a narrower sense. This means that security remains defined in hard, “traditional” terms and has not evolved to include the security of individuals and communities rather than rulers and states. The future of regional security co-operation is therefore uncertain and bleak, and the closing of ranks may yet herald a closer Gulf union as rulers come together to deal with the pressures generated by the Arab Spring.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

35. Arab Spring, Turkish "Summer"? The trajectory of a pro-Western "moderate Islam"

Author:: ees van der Pijl
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The “moderate Islam” that has developed in Turkey could play a role in shaping the outcome of the Arab revolt that began in 2011. The modern Turkish state established by Atatürk after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had to find ways to integrate Islam politically. Turkey was a late-industrialising country and the Islamic political current tended to have an anti-Western, antiliberal profile on this account. Two tendencies within Turkish political Islam are distinguished: one connecting religion to economic nationalism, the other primarily cultural and willing to accommodate to neoliberalism. The 1980 military coup geared the country to neoliberalism and cleared the way for this second tendency to rise to power through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of R.T. Erdo Ë˜gan. For the West and the Gulf Arab states the export of this model to the Arab countries destabilised in the popular revolt would amount to a very favourable outcome. Gulf Arab capital was already involved in the opening up of state-controlled Arab economies, including Syria. Although the situation is still in flux, by following the Turkish model Muslim Brotherhood governments could potentially embrace political loyalty to the West and neoliberal capitalism.
Topic:: Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

36. The reshaping of West Africa after Mu'ammar Qaddafi's fall

Author:: Roland Marchal
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Muammar Qaddafi's overthrow was interpreted in the West as the removal of a tyranny and an expression of regional democratisation dynamics. Concerned with their own interests, Western powers have not paid attention to key factors affecting political developments in the wider region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Democratization, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Arabia and North Africa

37. Patterns of Violence in Iraq

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Iraq is in an ongoing struggle to establish a new national identity, and one that can bridge across the deep sectarian divisions between its Shi'ites and Sunnis as well as the ethnic divisions between its Arabs and its Kurds and other minorities. At the same time, Iraq's leaders must try to build a new structure of governance, economics, and social order after a mix of dictatorship, war, sanctions, occupation, and civil conflict that began in the 1970s and have continued ever since.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Post Colonialism, Regime Change, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

38. Monarchical Pluralism or De-democratization: Actors and Choices in Jordan

Author:: Nur Köprülü
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: This paper argues that the purpose of democratization in Jordanian politics is not only a political co-optation policy to cope with the negative effects of the country's economic recession, but also to ensure the survival of the Hashemite monarchy. The process of democratization in the region has been closely tied with the notions of inclusiveness and exclusiveness. This is due to 'incomplete' national identity building formation in most parts of the Middle East. For that particular purpose, the main objective of this paper is not to re-assert the uniqueness of politics in the Arab world, but rather to engage in how politics of regime survival in the case of Jordan shape the process of democratization in the post – 1989 era. Thus this paper will examine the period following the normalization of relations with Israel in 1994, the Palestinian question, the repercussions of current social upheavals in the Arab world, and how these specific circumstances affect Jordan's democratic opening.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan

39. The Arab World's Education Report Card: School Climate and Citizenship Skills

Author:: Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The youth of the Arab world have driven much of the popular upheaval that has overtaken the region in the last year. Calling for fundamental political and economic change, they seek to remake their societies into more open, global players. But if that grassroots momentum is to be solidified, real societal reform must take place.
Topic:: Democratization, Demographics, Economics, Education, Globalization, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

40. When Victory Becomes an Option: Egypt\'s Muslim Brotherhood Confronts Success

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Egypt\'s Muslim Brotherhood stands on the brink of an impressive electoral victory. After several months of suggesting it would check its own electoral ambitions, the Brotherhood plunged into politics with unprecedented enthusiasm, focusing all of its energies and impressive organizational heft on the parliamentary vote. Now, with the electoral list of its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, likely to gain close to (and maybe even more than) half the seats and perhaps cabinet positions as well, the movement is entering uncharted waters.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, Syria, and Egypt

41. Egypt's Judges in a Revolutionary Age

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Egypt's tumultuous uprising of 2011 was about many things, but among the most central was a demand by legions of political activists and large crowds of mobilized citizens that public authority in the country be reconstructed to operate in a clearly accountable manner, fully governed by the rule of law. Egyptian judges might therefore be expected to look upon the post-uprising environment as a time when they can finally realize a vision that they have been articulating for a generation in the face of an imperious and impervious presidency: A state ruled by law in which they will be insulated from political pressures and private interests, providing full autonomy to individual judges and to the judiciary as a body to issue decisions that will be respected and implemented by all the agencies of the Egyptian state.
Topic:: Democratization, Regime Change, and Law
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

42. The State of Iraq

Author:: Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Within days of the official ceremonies marking the end of the U.S. mission in Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki moved to indict Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges and sought to remove Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq from his position, triggering a major political crisis that fully revealed Iraq as an unstable, undemocratic country governed by raw competition for power and barely affected by institutional arrangements. Large-scale violence immediately flared up again, with a series of terrorist attacks against mostly Shi'i targets reminiscent of the worst days of 2006.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, War, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

43. Digital Media in the Arab World One Year After the Revolutions

Author:: Jeffrey Ghannam
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: The Arab region is experiencing a profound media shift. The year following the start of the Arab revolutions–in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and violent uprisings in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain–was followed by continued repression and threats to the exercise of free expression online and offline. But the year also saw great strides in the numbers of Arabs across the region turning to social media platforms and the ascendancy of online engagement. This report traces and analyzes the enabling of tens of millions of individuals–as well as established news outlets–to attract wide global followings with Facebook and Twitter updates and YouTube videos about rapidly changing events. The widely diverse and pluralistic online communities in the Arab world are creating and sharing content, calling into question the future of the many state-owned or self-censored media that provide less in the way of engagement that Arab audiences have come to expect.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

44. Dallying with Reform in a Divided Jordan

Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Something is brewing in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. It is not so much that protests have been spreading since 2011; the country has experienced these before and so far they remain relatively small. It is, rather, who is behind them and from where dissatisfaction stems. East Bankers – Jordanians who inhabited the area before the arrival of the first Palestinian refugees in 1948 – have long formed the pillar of support for a regime that played on their fears concerning the Palestinian-origin majority. That pillar is showing cracks. The authorities retain several assets: popular anxiety about instability; U.S. and Gulf Arab political and material support; and persistent intercommunal divisions within the opposition. But in a fast-changing region, they would be reckless to assume they can avoid both far-reaching change and turmoil. Ultimately, they must either undertake the former one or experience the latter.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Democratization, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan

45. Security Sector Reform in Tunisia

Author:: Querine Hanlon
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In the year since its revolution, Tunisia has achieved what no other Arab Spring country has managed: peaceful transition to democratic rule through national elections widely viewed to be free and fair. The legacy of the previous regime remains, however: a complete lack of transparency, no real parliamentary or government oversight, and unchanged rules of engagement and training. Reorienting the mandate and institutional culture of security institutions is imperative. Most in need of reform are the police and gendarme and the Ministry of Interior. Tunisia's internal security services are feared by the population and are themselves fearful of fulfilling their basic police tasks. How the ministry and its forces engage with citizens and with the executive and the legislature is also in urgent need of reform. Restoration of police services will help restore the confidence of the police and the public trust in the government. Tunisia needs no lessons about subordinating the military to civilian control. Security sector reform is critical if Tunisia's transition to democracy is to succeed in the long term.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

46. Lost in Transition: The World according to Egypt's SCAF

Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since it assumed power after Hosni Mubarak's ouster, the performance of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been, at times, head-scratching. Extolled in the wake of the uprising as the revolution's protector, many have come to view it as an agent of the counter-revolution. It often has been obstinate, before abruptly yielding to pressure. It values its long ties with Washington, from which it receives much assistance, but seemed willing to jeopardise them by targeting U.S.-funded NGOs. Suspected by Islamists of seeking to deprive them of opportunity to govern and by non-Islamists of entering a secret pact with the Muslim Brotherhood, it finds itself in the worst of both worlds: an angry tug-of-war with liberal protesters and a high-wire contest with Islamists. It displays little interest in governing, wishing instead to protect privileges, but erratic behaviour threatens even that. On the eve of presidential elections that have become a high-stakes free-for-all, the SCAF should take a step back and, with the full range of political actors, agree on principles for a genuine and safe political transition.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

47. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia

48. Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen

Author:: Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The power-sharing deal signed by Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in November 2011 mentioned presidential elections, the formation of a national unity government, and a military commission to reform the armed forces. It was at best the first step in Yemen's recovery from the protracted turmoil and instability that wracked the country for months.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Democratization, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

49. Tunisie : lutter contre l'impunité, restaurer la sécurité

Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Dans un contexte arabe marqué par des transitions bâclées ou sanglantes, la Tunisie fait encore figure d'exception. Depuis le 14 janvier 2011, ce n'est pas seulement la tête de l'ancien régime, symbolisé par l'ancien président Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, qui est tombée. C'est tout un système qui se trouve bouleversé, principalement dans le cadre d'un consensus relativement large. Mais les défis qui pourraient menacer ces progrès existent. Parmi ceux-ci, deux en particulier sont étroitement liés : restaurer la sécurité et mener une véritable lutte contre l'impunité. Pour le nouveau gouvernement d'union, dénommé Troïka et emmené par le mouvement islamiste An-Nahda, la clé demeure dans un dialogue large, permettant de réformer les forces de sécurité sans trop les provoquer, rendre justice aux victimes de la dictature sans céder à la chasse aux sorcières, et garantir une justice efficace tout en tenant compte des limites du système judiciaire en place.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Government, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia and North Africa

50. "Mixed Signals" Still? The EU's Democracy and Human Rights Policy Since the Outbreak of the Arab Spring

Author:: Daniela Huber
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: For the last two decades, the EU has sent mixed signals concerning democracy and human rights to its Mediterranean neighbourhood. Has this changed since the outbreak of the Arab Spring? After observing the EU's response to the revolutions in two key countries, Tunisia and Egypt, this paper finds that signalling to Tunisia has become more coherent, while it remains ambiguous towards Egypt - a trend reinforced by US foreign policy in the region. In order to send a coherent message, the EU has to outline more concretely, what are the benchmarks and rewards for progress. For signalling to be effective, bilateral and multilateral dialogues are key. While bilateral dialogue platforms do exist, they should meet more frequently and at the highest levels. A multilateral dimension is conspicuously missing in the array of instruments set up by the EU in response to the Arab Spring, but would be crucial not only in order to understand the different democracy languages spoken, but notably also to anchor reform and set regional standards for it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Human Rights, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Europe, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

51. Tunisie : relever les défis économiques et sociaux

Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Dans un contexte arabe marqué par des transitions bâclées ou sanglantes, la Tunisie fait encore figure d'exception. Depuis le 14 janvier 2011, ce n'est pas seulement la tête de l'ancien régime, symbolisé par l'ancien président Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, qui est tombée. C'est tout un système qui se trouve bouleversé, principalement dans le cadre d'un consensus relativement large. Mais les défis qui pourraient menacer ces progrès existent. Parmi ceux-ci, deux en particulier sont étroitement liés : restaurer la sécurité et mener une véritable lutte contre l'impunité. Pour le nouveau gouvernement d'union, dénommé Troïka et emmené par le mouvement islamiste An-Nahda, la clé demeure dans un dialogue large, permettant de réformer les forces de sécurité sans trop les provoquer, rendre justice aux victimes de la dictature sans céder à la chasse aux sorcières, et garantir une justice efficace tout en tenant compte des limites du système judiciaire en place.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Regime Change, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Arabia and North Africa

52. The Emerging Order in the Middle East

Author:: Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Nathan J. Brown, and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: After more than a year of Arab uprisings, the emerging political order in the Middle East is marked by considerable shifts within individual countries as well as at the regional level. Domestically and internationally, new actors are emerging in strong positions and others are fading in importance. Islamist parties are on the rise with many secular forces losing power. And across the region, economic concerns have risen to the fore. These domestic changes have implications for both regional and international actors. There are a number of more ambitious economic and political steps the West should take to respond to these power shifts and engage with these new players.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

53. Libya's Troubled Transition

Author:: Paul Salem and Amanda Kadlec
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: More than a year after the outbreak of the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi's rule, Libya is in the midst of a challenging transition. Qaddafi is dead, his forty-two-year-old regime overthrown, and the country liberated. And now Libyans are laying the groundwork for elections that will start their country on the path to a new constitution.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, and Arabia

54. Gaza Five Years On: Hamas Settles In

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: As political upheavals spread over much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, regimes throughout the region were shaken and a few fell. But in both the West Bank and Gaza, a soft authoritarianism that has provoked uprisings elsewhere has only been further entrenching itself.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Education, and Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Gaza, and Cameroon

55. The Economic Agenda of the Islamist Parties

Author:: Ibrahim Saif and Muhammad Abu Rumman
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Islamist parties have gained newfound political power across the Arab world. Four parties in particular—Tunisia's Ennahda, Egypt's Freedom and Justice Party, Morocco's Justice and Development Party, and Jordan's Islamic Action Front—have either made a strong showing at the ballot box or are expected to in upcoming elections. Their successes have dredged up fears about their political and social ambitions, with worries ranging from the enforcement of sharia law to the implications for Western tourists on these countries' beaches. Meanwhile, the parties' economic platforms have largely been overlooked, despite the serious challenges that lie ahead for the economies of the Arab world.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Islam, Political Economy, Regime Change, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

56. Moving the EU from a Laggard to a Leader in Democracy Assistance: The Potential Role of the European Endowment for Democracy

Author:: Hrant Kostanyan and Magdalena Nasieniak
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU has consistently stressed the primacy of democracy assistance in its pronouncements on EU external policy, but its actions have noticeably lagged behind. At the heart of the problem are the absence of available appropriate instruments, incoherent external action and convoluted decision-making procedures that require the mobilisation of unanimity and the political backing of all 27 EU member states. The Arab Spring once again highlighted the EU's inability to react swiftly and decisively to the extraordinary events unfolding in its neighbourhood.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Europe and Arabia

57. The Rise of Egypt's Workers

Author:: Joel Beinin
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Workers have long sought to bring change to the Egyptian system, yet the independent labor movement has only recently begun to find a nationwide voice. As Egypt's sole legal trade union organization and an arm of the state for nearly sixty years, the Egyptian Trade Union Federation (ETUF) has had a monopoly on representing workers. Though its mission is to control workers as much as it is to represent them, ETUF has been unable to prevent the militant labor dissidence that has escalated since the late 1990s. Workers were by far the largest component of the burgeoning culture of protest in the 2000s that undermined the legitimacy of the Mubarak regime.
Topic:: Democratization, Regime Change, Insurgency, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

58. Tunisian Media in Transition

Author:: Fatima el-Issawi
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The media in Tunisia has undergone drastic changes since the country's 2011 revolution. From content that was once uniform and restricted in the extreme, Tunisian media outlets have moved away from echoing the state line and are now providing diverse output. A host of new media outlets have cropped up. The legal framework and state institutions governing the industry are undergoing reform. And most importantly, journalists are now able to experience political journalism firsthand.
Topic:: Democratization, Mass Media, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

59. Iraq After US Withdrawal: US Policy and the Iraqi Search for Security and Stability

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Iraq is in an ongoing struggle to establish a new national identity, and one that can bridge across the deep sectarian divisions between its Shi'ite s and Sunnis and the ethnic division s between its Arabs and its Kurds and other minorities. At the same time, it must build a new structure of governance, economic, and social order after a period of dictatorship, war, sanctions, occupation and civil conflict that began in 1979 and has continued ever since. It must cope with a steadily growing population, and diversify an economy that is so dependent on petroleum exports that they provide some 95% of its government revenues. This struggle can still end in a new round of serious civil conflict and even in the division of the country. At the same time, Iraq does have great potential and its political divisions and ongoing low - level violence do not mean it cannot succeed in establishing stability, security, and a better life for its people.
Topic:: Democratization, Peace Studies, War, Counterinsurgency, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

60. Syria's Mutating Conflict

Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: At a distance, Syria's conflict can resemble a slow, painful slog, punctuated by intermittent accelerations and apparent tipping points, influenced by international activity. Zoom in, and one can cast such impressions aside. Diplomatic manoeuvrings have ended up being little more than inertia masquerading as motion. The West used them to pretend it was doing more than it was; Russia exploited them to feign it backed the Syrian regime less than it actually did. Meanwhile, in Syria, one sees neither deadlock nor abrupt transformation; virtually everything has been changing but at a steady pace: the shape of the conflict; civil society dynamics; sectarian relations; and the very nature of the regime the opposition seeks to depose.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

61. Egypt: The Marriage of Islamism and the System

Author:: Dr. Cengi Günay
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The “January 25 Revolution” was not a classic revolution. President Mubarak's fall did not entail the overthrow of the regime, neither alter the elites or destroy their institutions, nor reverse the social situation. Although power structures and economic patterns were not removed, Mubarak's fall set an end to exclusive authoritarian despotism and initiated a process of power sharing; a so called passive revolution characterised by the absorption of the “enemies' elites” into the system. From this perspective, legalisation has been only a further step in the Islamists' long and rocky road of integration through moderation. Initially based on tactical considerations, shifts in methods and behaviour usually also evoke a shift in emphasis from ideological conceptions to political pragmatism. The absorption of the Islamist elites supported a process of embourgeoisement and de-â€ ideologization. This did not entail a departure from Islamic tenets, but rather from ideological conceptions which seemed more and more unrealistic in a globalized world. The integration of de-â€radicalised and moderated socially conservative Islamist groups with market economy and parliamentary democracy promises not only the prevention of political and economic turmoil, but also guarantees the reinforcement of the existing patterns of domination.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Africa and Arabia

62. Arab Muslim women after the uprisings: the encounter between the liberalisation of Islamist politics and the feminisation of Islamic interpretation

Author:: Aitemad Muhanna
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Women's participation in the Arab uprisings has been inspired by the expansion of an Islamist-based model of Arab women's activism and a gradual shrinking of secular liberal women's activism. The uprisings have provided outcomes that prove the possibility of combining Islam with democracy through the political success of Islamist parties in the post-uprisings era, like in Tunisia and Egypt. Although this new de facto political map of the region has largely frightened liberal women, the victory of moderate Islamist voices may also be promising, especially when they are in a position to provide a state governance model. The determining factor in combining Islam with democracy is the willingness of the two major players – Islamist parties and the international community – to ensure that the main debatable issues – religion, gender and human rights – are not discriminated against in the name of either religion or Western democracy. However, the actual practice and outcomes of moderate Islamist discourse remains under experimentation, and it is a space for Islamist and secular women's and human rights organisations to co-operate, monitor, negotiate and strategise, to ensure that gender issues are engaged in policy discussions and formulations as a substantial issue for real democratisation.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, and Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

63. Hamas's leadership struggle and the prospects for Palestinian reconciliation

Author:: Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: When the West Bank and Gaza first split between two rival Palestinian governments in 2007, Western governments promised to turn the West Bank under President Mahmoud Abbas, their Fatah protégé, into a model state and reduce Gaza under its Islamist rulers, Hamas, to a pariah. Almost five years on, the tables have turned. While the West Bank slips into economic and political crisis, Gaza is fast reviving. Abbas finds himself bereft of a political horizon for achieving a two-state settlement and the state-building experiment of his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, has reached an impasse. Gaza's economy, by contrast, has grown strongly under Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, who is experiencing a wave of increasing popularity, as Hamas looks to tie the enclave ever more closely to the political economies of North Africa, where the Arab awakening is bringing affiliated Islamist movements to power. A recent agreement signed in the Qatari capital, Doha, between Abbas and Hamas's exiled leader, Khalid Meshal, is intended to heal the split between Palestine's two halves. Under the agreement, the separate governments governing Gaza and the West Bank would be replaced by a single technocratic government under Abbas, which is a radical about-turn on the part of the exiled Hamas leadership that Hamas politicians in Gaza find difficult to swallow. For its own reasons, Israel too rejects the agreement. With so many previous attempts at intra-Palestinian reconciliation ending in failure and so many obstacles dogging this latest round, the prospects for the Doha agreement remain bleak, but not beyond the realm of the possible.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and North Africa

64. Political Change in the Middle East: An Attempt to Analyze the "Arab Spring"

Author:: Martin Beck and Simone Hüser
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: This article deals with the Arab Spring as a process of deep political change in the Arab world, previously the only major world area where authoritarianism persisted unchallenged for decades. While in various countries of the Arab world mass protests in 2011 forced rulers to resign, other authoritarian regimes have – despite political and economic pressure – so far been able to remain in power, or have even been only insignificantly affected. This paper applies central social science approaches in order to analyze recent developments in the region – a major task of theoretically oriented social sciences in the coming years. In addition to providing an overview of the existing literature on the Arab Spring, the article examines the empirical results of political diversification in the Arab world. A two ‐ by ‐ two matrix of political rule that differentiates according to the type of rule and the degree of stability is presented and discussed. Although the analysis draws heavily on rent theory, it also applies findings from transition theory and revolution theory to illuminate the current political dynamics in the Middle East.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

65. Freedom and Reform at Egypt's Universities

Author:: Ursula Lindsey
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Underfunded, understaffed, and suffering from opaque governance and political repression, the public higher education system that Egypt's new civilian government inherited from the Mubarak era is deeply flawed. Yet change in this area has stopped far short of a revolution.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Education, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Arabia and Egypt

66. Religious Education and Pluralism in Egypt and Tunisia

Author:: Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Religion occupies a prominent position in the education systems of all Arab countries. With the rise of Islamists across the Arab world, especially in Egypt and Tunisia, there is a possibility that the new parties in power will update education curricula to reflect conservative Islamic beliefs.
Topic:: Democratization, Education, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

67. Above the State: The Officers' Republic in Egypt

Author:: Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Egypt's new, democratically elected officials are struggling with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) for control of the country's post-Mubarak future. The SCAF, which has ruled over Egypt since early 2011, is attempting to enshrine its custodianship of the country in the constitution. The civilian authorities are trying to wrest control from a military institution that has been the mainstay of authoritarian power for decades, and that now seeks to remain above the law. No less than the fate of Egypt's transition is at stake.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: Arabia and Egypt

68. The Struggle for Security in Eastern Libya

Author:: Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Despite successful parliamentary elections in early July, localized clashes over identity, power, and resources persist in Libya, straining the capacity of the weak government, deterring foreign investment, and possibly stunting the emergence of democratic institutions. The most pressing of these conflicts— growing insecurity in Libya's eastern region of Barqa, where Benghazi is located—is fueled by longstanding neglect, Salafi militancy, and fighting between ethnic Tabu and Arab tribes. Lacking an effective police and national army, the state is struggling for legitimacy and control of the east. It must act to restore the periphery's confidence in the center.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Libya and Arabia

69. Furthering Democracy in Libya with Information Technology: Opportunities for the International Donor Community

Author:: Chris Jones, Sharon Kennedy, Siobhan Kerr, Joseph Mitchell, and Daniel Safayeni
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Social media played a central and celebrated role in the uprisings that took place in the Arab world in 2011, facilitating the organization and coordination of popular resistance to dictatorial regimes in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. The use of social media channels to popularize and concentrate resistance was made possible, in part, by the recent growth of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector in the region. While the lack of economic growth, job opportunities and political agency were fundamental driving forces behind the Arab revolutions, ICT and social media were critical tools that helped transform the deep-seated discontent into a widespread social movement.
Topic:: Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Libya, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

70. The Politics of Security Sector Reform in Egypt

Author:: Hesham Sallam and Daniel Brumberg
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In Egypt, security sector reform (SSR) hinges on achieving democratic reforms, particularly the reconstitution of an elected parliament and preparation of a new constitution that defines the roles and responsibilities of military and security institutions based on transparency, accountability, and respect for civilian authorities. In this highly political process, arranging the disengagement of Egypt's military from government and the economy will be essential. Democratically elected leaders will need to consult widely while keeping an open door to reformists in the security sector. At the same time, the police and security establishments must be transformed into effective, accountable, and politically neutral law-enforcement bodies that deliver human security and protect human rights. Downsizing the security services to a number consonant with its professional mission is vital. Egypt's new president will play a central—although not exclusive—role in advancing the above aims. He will have to forge a wide societal consensus on the boundaries of SSR. He will also have to reach an accommodation with military leaders to ensure that SSR initiatives receive their support. The responsibility for advancing SSR lies with Egypt's political community. The international community can help by supporting elected officials and providing technical expertise and economic support.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

71. Security Sector Transformation in the Arab Awakening

Author:: Donald J. Planty
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Arab Awakening opened the door to democratic political change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Security sector reform (SSR) is an integral component of the nascent democratic process in the region. While SSR is a long-term process, it should be a key part of institution building in the new democracies. Democracy requires security institutions that are open, professional, and responsive to public needs. The transitions to democracy are varied in nature and scope. SSR will differ by country and must be tailored to the political realities and specific circumstances of each state. The international community can foster successful SSR processes by calibrating its assistance according to the reform efforts in each country. A general or “one-size-fits-all” approach to SSR will not be successful. A sense of political powerlessness, an unresponsive bureaucracy, a general lack of opportunity, economic stagnation (including high unemployment), and repressive security forces all contributed to the Arab Awakening. As a result of the upheaval, democratic forces in several of the MENA countries are pushing for transparency and accountability in the security services. SSR must be undertaken in a holistic manner, couched within the framework of overall democratic reform and linked to other broad policies such as justice sector reform, evolution of the political process, and economic development. SSR will only be achieved if it is integrated and pursued in unison with these larger processes of democratic change. The international community, especially the United States and the European Union, need to foster democratic developments and, in particular, to support and coordinate SSR.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Economics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

72. Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations

Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of "big-man" politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa's governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semi-authoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Governance, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Africa, Arabia, and Nigeria

73. Between conditionality and engagement: Revisiting the EU's democracy promotion in the Eastern neighbourhood

Author:: Kristi Raik
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The EU needs to place a stronger emphasis on promoting democracy in its Eastern neighbourhood. A new approach should combine limited, focused conditionality with increased openness and multi-level linkages. Conditionality is often effective in promoting faster and better reforms where the home-grown will to democratise is present (as in Moldova, for example). It is not likely to work as a transformative policy, bringing about change from authoritarianism to democracy in the neighbourhood. The goal of tying neighbours to Europe should prevail over the principle of political conditionality. Economic integration and visa freedom have to be pursued with all neighbouring countries. This makes democratisation more likely to occur in the longer term. Engagement, providing it is not limited to political leaders, can be a successful strategy to push for democratic change. Cooperation with (semi-)authoritarian governments has to be accompanied by strong support for civil society and multiple links with the populations. Ukraine is a test case of the EU's ability to use association agreements as a tool for democracy promotion. The involvement of neighbours in the negotiation process offers a possibility to shape their domestic agendas. At the same time, there must be 'red lines': the EU should emphasize that it will not sign the agreements with countries having major problems with democracy.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe and Arabia

74. Strategic Pretence or Strategic Defence? Britain, France and the Common Security and Defence Policy after Libya

Author:: Julian Lindley-French
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: With British and French aircraft undertaking most of the air operations over Libya and some fiftyfive years on from the Suez debacle, historical irony abounds. On November 2 2010, London and Paris agreed the Defence and Security Cooperation Treaty1 (see box below). On the face of it the accord is by and large military-technical: to develop co-operation between British and French Armed Forces, to promote the sharing and pooling of materials and equipment including through mutual interdependence, and leading to the building of joint facilities. This it is hoped will promote mutual access to each other's defence markets, through the promotion of industrial and technological co-operation. But what has the treaty to do with the European Union (EU) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)? Does the treaty mark the first step on the road to regalvanising Europe's strategic defence or is it simply the strategic pretence of two aging, failing powers unable to accept a world that has moved on?
Topic:: NATO, Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Britain, France, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

75. Transition in Arab States: Time for an "EU-Master Plan"

Author:: Walter Feichtinger
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The revolts in Tunisia and Egypt were effective in ousting the regimes of Ben Ali and Mubarak, bringing rumor and protests to Yemen, Syria and other places and starting a violent revolution against Muammar Gaddafi – but it remains to be seen whether the abrupt achieved cohesion among the protesters will overcome the political transformation and bridge long existing gaps between the various groups and factions in these countries. Demonstrations in Tunisia, and also in Egypt, indicate that there is limited cohesion and tolerance within politics and civil society when it comes to tackling daily problems and finding lasting solutions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia

76. The Great Arab Revolution: Challenges, Dilemmas and Opportunities?

Author:: Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Beyond noting the fluidity, ambiguity and ambivalence associated with the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, there is little consensus on causes and likely consequences. Do these geopolitical earthquakes constitute an “Arab Spring” leading to transition democratization, akin to 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe? Or should we look to 1979 in Iran, and the prospect of Sunni rather than Shia theocracy taking hold? Might the wider Muslim world – Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Turkey – provide alternative potential governance models for the MENA region, given indigenous variants appear exhausted and no longer able to self-reproduce? What are the lessons which other MENA incumbent regimes and the international community will identify? How might those lessons be learned?
Topic:: Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

77. Spring Tide: Will the Arab risings yield democracy, dictatorship or disorder?

Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: Five months after the Arab uprising started in Tunisia, it has become possible to glimpse the likely outcomes for the region. The first section of this report traces the main political scenarios.
Topic:: Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Oman

78. The Syrian People's Slow-motion Revolution

Publication Date:: 07-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Syrian uprising has defied conventional expectations and patterns established elsewhere in the region from the outset. It happened, first of all, and to many that in itself was surprising enough. The regime was not alone in believing in a form of Syrian exceptionalism that would shield it from serious popular unrest. Once the uprising began, it did not develop quickly, as in Egypt or Tunisia. Although it did not remain peaceful, it did not descend into a violent civil war, as in Libya, or sectarian affair, as in Bahrain. To this day, the outcome remains in doubt. Demonstrations have been growing in impressive fashion but have yet to attain critical mass. Regime support has been declining as the security services' brutality has intensified, but many constituents still prefer the status quo to an uncertain and potentially chaotic future. What is clear, however, is the degree to which a wide array of social groups, many once pillars of the regime, have turned against it and how relations between state and society have been forever altered.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

79. Extending Libya's Transitional Period: Capitalizing on the Constitutional Moment

Author:: Jason Gluck
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The National Transitional Council (NTC) new Constitutional Declaration is a critical development in Libya's transition to democracy. But while most features of the document are very positive, the relatively short timeline for the transition may create significant challenges.
Topic:: Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia and North Africa

80. Security Sector Transformation in North Africa and the Middle East

Author:: Mark Sedra
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The events of the Arab Spring are a unique and unprecedented opportunity for democratic political change for the Middle East and North Africa, but the political transitions in that region remain fragile. The United States and other external actors can help the new democratic regimes by supporting their efforts at security sector reform (SSR).
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

81. Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations

Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of “big-man” politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa's governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semi-authoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.
Topic:: Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Africa, Arabia, Nigeria, and Zambia

82. Arab Monarchies: Chance for Reform, Yet Unmet

Author:: Marina Ottaway and Marwan Muasher
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Contrary to what ongoing protests across the Middle East and North Africa might imply, monarchs and ruling families in the Arab world still enjoy an extraordinary degree of legitimacy in the eyes of their people. Most citizens of Arab monarchies want to see changes within their ruling governments, not complete regime change. This in turn affords those rulers an opportunity to embark on a path of far-reaching political reform without losing their thrones—all the while gaining acclaim at home and abroad.
Topic:: Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

83. From Inspiration to Aspiration: Turkey in the New Middle East

Author:: Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: With democratic change struggling to take root in the Arab world even after the fall of several autocratic regimes, the question naturally arises whether Turkey can serve as a model for those who hope to usher the region through the difficult transition to a more democratic order.
Topic:: NATO, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

84. Challenges of Egypt's Economic Transition

Author:: Ibrahim Saif
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Egyptian economy is going through a critical period as the country transitions to democracy. While the shift from authoritarianism is certainly welcome, it has inevitably incited instability unknown to Egypt for the past thirty years. The implementation of economic reform amid this uncertainty is particularly challenging as political demands take precedence. The state attempted several times to revive the Egyptian economy since the Infitah, or “open door,” policy initiated by President Anwar Sadat in the mid-1970s. Successive, though unsuccessful, reform programs during the 1990s contributed to the pervasive poverty that served as a central driver of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and persists today. Past experiences can provide useful lessons for what to avoid in the future, even if they are unable to impart what exactly should be done.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

85. Education for Citizenship in the Arab World: Key to the Future

Author:: Marwan Muasher and Muhammad Faour
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders are already shattering. In the absence of strong political parties and viable civil society structures in most of the Arab world, these uprisings are proving to be only the first step in a process that will not follow a clear path and will take years to unfold. Much trial and error will take place and the region will experience multiple ups and downs before stable political and economic systems take hold.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

86. Power to the People? Reactions to the EU's response to the Arab Spring

Author:: Jamie Balfour-Paul
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The EU has a long history of co-operation with the Arab region. Its economic and security interests in the region are considerable. In line with the European Consensus on Development, respect for human rights and democracy have been explicit values within EU development policies. Past EU co-operation in the region, especially in health and education, has achieved successes and enabled people to claim certain rights.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

87. Is There an Islamist Alternative in Egypt?

Author:: Daniela Pioppi
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: It is a common place in the literature that the Muslim Brotherhood (jama'a al-ikhwan al-muslimin) is - after its re-emergence on the political scene back in the seventies - the main (if not the only) real, organised and mass-based opposition force in Egypt. Events in Egypt in January 2011 have recast attention on this question. This paper aims to evaluate, inasmuch as it is possible, the state of health of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) today, after forty years of coexistence with the Egyptian (neo)-authoritarian regime. Has the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood represented a real alternative to the incumbent regime? Or it is more correct to speak today in terms of an almost 'functional' opposition, tamed by recurring political repression and limited freedom of action? To what extent has the Muslim Brotherhood been able to shape or at least to influence the Egyptian political and social agenda, both with respect to the regime and to other opposition forces?
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

88. The Tunisian Revolution: An Opportunity for Democratic Transition

Author:: Nathalie Tocci, Rym Ayadi, Maria Cristina Paciello, and Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Owing to its macroeconomic achievements, for decades Tunisia projected an image of stability to the world and distinguished itself from other Arab countries for its progress in the areas of economic growth, health, education and women's rights. This widely held view of apparent stability was shattered on January 14, when President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country after high levels of unemployment and inequalities resulted in widespread chaos and social unrest. Events in Tunisia raise sharp questions regarding the country's current situation and its future prospects and, more generally, the often taken-forgranted sustainability of many regimes of the Middle East and the policies of the European Union towards the region.
Topic:: Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

89. Egypt: before and after

Author:: Virginie Collombier
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Even before the current uprising began in Egypt, major changes in the political system had begun to threaten the stability of the Mubarak regime as the presidential succession became imminent. Constitutional reforms and electoral fraud could have resulted in a political deadlock in 2011. At the same time, the relative openness and freedom of expression that has emerged in Egypt since 2005 had laid the ground for new political movements to emerge and develop. Events in Tunisia, combined with a severe degradation of economic and social conditions in Egypt, and the growing perception that its citizens would have no say in the coming presidential succession, have created a favourable context for the unprecedented mobilization in Tahrir square.
Topic:: Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

90. The Muslim Brotherhood: On the Record

Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following sampling of comments by Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt explains the group's position in the current crisis and its attitudes towards the United States, Israel, and the rest of the Arab world.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

91. The Egyptian Military and the Fate of the Regime

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Egyptian Armed Forces (EAF) is perhaps the key actor in the current crisis. Although it has largely remained aloof from the struggle in the streets and has yet to show its hand regarding the fate of the regime, many are counting on it to act in the nation's interest, force President Hosni Mubarak from power, and facilitate a smooth transition to a successor government. This places a great deal of responsibility on the EAF and makes understanding its role in the process essential. Observers inside and outside Egypt should not take for granted that the military will either do "the right thing" or act monolithically. It is an actor with many faces and capacities, and one whose internal motivations and processes can be seen only dimly at the moment.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Arabia and Egypt

92. From Caution to Boldness: U.S. Policy toward Egypt

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the situation in Egypt continues to unfold, U.S. policy has evolved with breathtaking speed. Just last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the Mubarak regime was stable, but by Tuesday evening, President Obama was making the remarkable statement that Egypt's transition needs to begin "now." This is not only the most serious foreign policy challenge to this U.S. administration, but also one in a list of unforeseen and improbable challenges. Unlike scenarios involving, for example, a North Korean provocation against the South or even a catastrophic terrorist attack -- for which the United States plans and prepares -- the swift demise of Hosni Mubarak's presidency, along with the virtual disappearance of the ruling National Democratic Party and the potential fall of a regime that has been a pillar of U.S. standing in the Middle East for thirty-five years, is an unimagined challenge.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

93. Protests in Yemen: President Saleh Promises Change

Author:: Daniel Green
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 2, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power since 1978, declared that he would not press for a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek another term during the next election, currently scheduled for 2013. He also pledged that he would not pass power to his son, Ahmed, head of the country's Republican Guard. His remarks were apparently intended to preempt a "day of rage" in the capital, Sana, scheduled by opposition groups for February 3. In addition to parallels with Tunisia and Egypt, Washington will be watching with great attention given Yemen's reputation as a sanctuary for al-Qaeda and its supporters.
Topic:: Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

94. On the Record

Author:: Mohammed ElBaradei
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "For years, the West has bought Mr. Mubarak's demonization of the Muslim Brotherhood lock, stock and barrel, the idea that the only alternative here are these demons called the Muslim Brotherhood who are the equivalent of Al Qaeda's... I am pretty sure that any freely and fairly elected government in Egypt will be a moderate one, but America is really pushing Egypt and pushing the whole Arab world into radicalization with this inept policy of supporting repression."
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Vienna

95. Egypt's Security Forces: A Key Factor in the Crisis

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The current wave of protests in Egypt has pitted thousands of demonstrators against the police and Central Security Forces (CSF). The performance of these forces is key to the outcome of the crisis. If they can contain the demonstrations without excessive violence, the protests will likely burn themselves out over time. But if the demonstrations continue or escalate into greater violence, the police and CSF could break down, either dissolving entirely or engaging in undisciplined violence that further exacerbates the situation. Such a scenario, or even the likelihood of it, would probably spur the government to deploy army personnel to support the security forces, deter further demonstrations, and, if necessary, put down the protests through force. That would be a true crisis for the government, one with an uncertain outcome.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Arabia and Egypt

96. Will Egypt's 'Day of Rage' Become a Revolution?

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Inspired by events in Tunisia, tens of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets on January 25 in major cities from Alexandria to Cairo, the largest demonstrations to hit the country since the bread riots of the 1970s. The government, which did not initially confront demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square, finally took forceful action to remove them late last night. Today, January 26, the Interior Ministry announced that public gatherings and protests will no longer be tolerated; there were further clashes in Cairo and Suez. More protests are anticipated after Friday prayers (January 28). Will the government's tactics quell the demonstrations or cause them to spread? And what approach should Washington take?
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Washington, Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, and Cairo

97. Military Holds Key to Egypt's Future: Interview with Bernard Gwertzman

Author:: Bruce K. Rutherford
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: As protests continued in Cairo, questions intensified about when and how President Hosni Mubarak would step aside and what kind of transitional government might replace him. The "key actor" at this time is Egypt's military leadership, which is concerned about growing violence, economic damage, and continued instability, says Bruce K. Rutherford, author of Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World. "If they want these demonstrations to end, they can either intervene and use force to disperse the demonstrators or they can ask President Mubarak to leave," he says, which would indicate the army's belief that Mubarak's continued presence is destabilizing. Rutherford says the opposition has organized a ten-person leadership group headed by Mohamed ElBaradei, but that Egyptians are skeptical about the government's offer to open discussions with the opposition because in the past, such dialogues haven't led to any change. He says a possible successor to Mubarak may be former foreign minister Amr Moussa, currently head of the Arab League.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

98. Social Media in the Arab World: Leading up to the Uprisings of 2011

Author:: Jeffrey Ghannam
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This paper was commissioned and largely reported in the period leading up to the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere in the region in early 2011. It is published as a stage-setter for the events that are rapidly unfolding in the Arab world.
Topic:: Democratization, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia

99. The dynamics of Egypt's protest: an inside view

Author:: Moaaz Elzoughby
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Egyptian protest movement eventually won a historic victory with the achievement of its main demand, the resignation of Hosni Mubarak from Egypt's presidency. But the seventeen tumultuous days from the start of the demonstrations on 25 January until the president's departure on 11 February were far from straightforward in their course. In this eyewitness report, a researcher who was present during the crucial days when Cairo's Tahrir Square became the centre of the revolt reveals how the social composition and the moods of the movement fluctuated throughout the protest. Nothing was predetermined; even the events that led to the occupation of the square itself had elements of contingency about them. The interplay between a minority of politicised participants and a much larger group of non-political young people from Cairo's neighbourhoods was at the heart of the shifts that took place, which were in turn influenced by the tactics of security forces and the character of official media coverage. These factors, critical to the evolution of the movement and the outcome of the protest, may continue to be important in shaping the aftermath of Egypt's revolt.
Topic:: Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

100. Tunisia's democratic revolution and its actors

Author:: Bassma Kodmani
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The recent democratic revolution in Tunisia swept away the authoritarian regime of President Zein el Abidin Ben Ali who had long held a tight grip on power in the country. He used the police to spread fear among the population, appointed loyalists to the head of the national union and ensured the ruling party was the only real player in the political system. His family were a hive of corruption. When the population revolted, it was therefore swift and decisive.
Topic:: Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

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