Political Geography: Africa / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 25 Years

151. Evaluating The Social and Economic Consequences of Global Warming On African Women

Author:: Eyesiere-Hope Essien
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: By Eyesiere-Hope Essien of the Climate Change Working Group Global warming is significantly impacting developing countries and the effects are far-reaching which is having a devastating impact on African women and their communities, leading to adverse social and economic consequences. Climate change has resulted in an increase in temperature, more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and a decrease in water availability. As a result, African women are facing a growing number of challenges related to food insecurity, water scarcity, and healthcare access. They are at greater risk of poverty, displacement, and exploitation. These issues can be further exacerbated by a lack of access to education and employment opportunities. It is essential to understand the nature of these impacts and to take action to mitigate them and ensure African women have the resources and skills to adapt to the changing environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Health, Water, Women, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Africa

152. Climate Change in Africa: What we know, what we don't, and where we should go from here

Author:: Eyesiere-Hope Essien and Lisa Jené
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: Climate change is taking a toll across the African continent. While the world is increasingly recognizing the various ways in which climate change is negatively impacting African communities—from decreased agricultural productivity to increased incidence of natural disasters and even to heightened conflict—there remains much we as a global community do not fully understand.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Africa

153. Giorgia Meloni’s Foreign Policy and the Mattei Plan for Africa: Balancing Development and Migration Concerns

Author:: Karim Mezran and Alissa Pavia
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Despite Italy’s economic significance as the Eurozone’s third-largest economy and founding member of the G7 and NATO, the country has struggled to translate its economic power into political influence. Yet, with Giorgia Meloni’s ascent to power, Italy’s approach to foreign policy appears to be evolving. In fact, since the very beginning of her term, Meloni displayed a rather bold approach towards reshaping Italy’s international status. As the President of the Council of Ministers – analogous to the post of Prime Minister in other countries – Meloni has adopted a distinct posture in addressing issues related to the Southern Mediterranean. Since taking office in October 2022, Meloni has made numerous visits to North Africa, engaging in a diplomatic offensive aimed at reinvigorating Italian policies. In January this year, following in the footsteps of former Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Meloni travelled to Algeria on her first bilateral visit abroad. Algeria is an instrumental country for Italy due to its vast hydrocarbon reserves and geographical proximity.[1] In 2022, Draghi paved the way for Algeria to become Italy’s top energy supplier, replacing Russia and thus allowing for a swift decoupling from Moscow as the Ukraine war rages on and energy prices continue to soar. Meloni’s posture in Algeria seeks to evidence her willingness to move beyond a mere set of energy memorandums and broaden Italy’s foreign policy to include strategic diplomacy with long-term goals. She described Algeria as Italy’s “most stable, strategic and long-standing” partner in North Africa,[2] and reassured President Tebboune that Italy stands by Algeria. The country has recently felt cornered following Morocco’s joining of the Abraham Accords, a feeling few other countries aside from Italy had the courage to assuage and which had pushed Algeria further towards Russia and China as a result. Meloni’s activism in North Africa did not end there. The prime minister and her cabinet promoted high-level missions and diplomatic efforts with Libyan government officials, allowing Italy to reap diplomatic wins in the energy field. In January, a few weeks after visiting Algeria, Meloni flew to Tripoli for a meeting with Libya’s UN-backed Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. The visit led to the signing of an 8 billion US dollars gas deal between Italian energy company Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).[3]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Migration, and Giorgia Meloni
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, Algeria, and Italy

154. Unknown gunmen and insecurity in Nigeria: Dancing on the brink of state fragility

Author:: Tope Shola Akinyetun, Victor Chukwugekwu Ebonine, and Iyase Osariyekemwen Ambrose
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: There is a compelling need to address the protracted and recurring multidimensional insecurity in Nigeria. The prevalence of insecurity in the country is multipronged and caught in a cyclic web. Insecurity in Nigeria comprises insurgency, killer herdsmen, extrajudicial killings, ethnoreligious conflict, armed robbery, militancy, banditry, cybercrime and attacks by unknown gunmen, among other things. The incidence of attacks by unknown gunmen is pervasive and symptomatic of a fragile state where the government’s monopoly of force is challenged and where marginalisation, crises and contested spaces are ubiquitous. The thrust of this paper is that the menace of unknown gunmen is pervasive and threatens to plunge Nigeria into a cesspit of fragility. The argument is predicated on the conceptual and theoretical suppositions of a fragile state. To this end, the paper adopts the documentary method of data collection and uses qualitative descriptive analysis to expound on the phenomenon. The findings reveal that the words unknown gunmen – terminology that is used to describe the spate of insecurity in the country – are a bane to peaceful coexistence. The paper also shows that the insecurity caused by these armed attacks and other forms of threat is emblematic of a fragile state. Consequently, policy recommendations – state-building and peace-building – are proffered.
Topic:: Security, International Security, Conflict, Legitimacy, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

155. Maximising the impact of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP)

Author:: Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: This briefing assesses South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). It acknowledges programme achievements while addressing challenges, including delays to the procurement process and financial issues facing REIPPPP projects. It underscores the necessity for electricity industry reform and more cohesive energy policies. It proposes changes to how investment decisions are made, and collaboration occurs alongside the REIPPPP process to promote private sector investment, develop localisation within the REIPPPP and reduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Lastly, it provides a thorough analysis to inform recommendations that will maximise REIPPPP’s role in realising South Africa’s energy objectives.
Topic:: Reform, Finance, Investment, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

156. Strategies to future-proof Zambia: Debt relief and beyond

Author:: Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Debt relief negotiations are currently taking place, with Zambia expected to be the first country to receive debt relief under the newly created G20 Common Framework. However, the process faces challenges, with China and the United States trading accusations of impeding the process. Some of Zambia's creditors have also been unwilling to agree to write off some of the country's debt. Positively, innovative approaches to debt relief have been proposed that would support Zambia's net-zero ambitions and promote sustainable development, such as debt for nature swaps. The integration of Zambia into the European Union's Critical Minerals framework could further support and assist Zambia in attaining a deal. Without a deal, Zambia risks being plunged into further macroeconomic uncertainty at a time when the country needs investment to capitalise on opportunities presented by political stability and structurally higher prices for copper and other critical minerals with which Zambi a is endowed.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Natural Resources, Political stability, Mining, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

157. Enhancing political accountability in South Africa

Author:: Pranish Desai and Mxolisi Zondo
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Enshrined in the founding provisions of South Africa’s democratic constitution is the commitment to a “multi-party system of democratic government, to ensure accountability, responsiveness and openness”.1 Today, South Africa is entering a new form of multiparty governance through the emergence of coalition governments in municipalities across the country. Following the Constitutional Court’s June 2020 decision to strike down parts of the Electoral Act of 1998, there have also been critical discussions about whether our national and provincial electoral framework of proportional representation fosters the accountability and responsiveness to which our constitution aspires.2 Both the nascent era of widespread coalition governance and the debate over electoral reform occur while the confidence that citizens have in our democracy is depreciating. In order to revive South Africans’ belief in our democratic system, we must renew that system to improve accountability. Many of the policy proposals that Good Governance Africa (GGA) considers in this briefing already exist,3 but we evaluate them in specific relation to how they can deepen political accountability in South Africa. The upshot is that a shift in approach from our institutions, political parties, civil society and citizens themselves is required.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Accountability, Social Contract, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

158. Investing in inclusive governance yields dividends in Africa

Author:: Pranish Desai, Monique Bennett, Nnaemeka Ohamadike, and Chrissy Dube
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Over the long term, there is a clear association between accountable and inclusive governance on the one hand and broad-based economic development on the other.1 We find empirical support for this assessment at the global, African, and regional levels within Africa across both shorter and more extended periods of time. The explanation is that a long-term governance environment which embraces accountability is also more politically stable, enabling consistent policymaking, which can sustain economic dynamism and meet citizens’ needs. Concerningly, there are African countries, including Angola, which have recently sought to repress rather than encourage participation. This has been one contributing factor to the recent stagnation and reversals which Angola has experienced in critical measures of human development pertaining to education, health and economic outcomes. This intelligence report identifies the critical implications that this finding has for companies with committed financial interests in African countries: • The importance of inclusive governance is that a more participatory, accountable and nondiscriminatory society will also see corresponding improvements in broad-based economic development, which benefits businesses and citizens in tandem. • The private sector has both an incentive and a responsibility to actively invest in mechanisms that encourage accountable governance in African countries where they operate. Investing in these mechanisms minimises the reputational risk companies open themselves up to by engaging in opportunistic behaviour which bolsters rather than blocks repressive behaviour by African governments. • Through supporting inclusive governance initiatives emanating from African civil society and local communities, companies can demonstrate that they have a long-term commitment to fostering economic development in the world’s fastest-growing continent.
Topic:: Governance, Investment, Economic Development, Private Sector, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa

159. The state of the renewable energy independent power producer procurement programme: Where to from here?

Author:: Busisipho Siyobi
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, recently briefed South Africa on the progress of the Energy Action Plan and the challenges associated with its implementation. Minister Ramokgopa further remarked on the positive socio-economic impact that the Renewable Energy Independent Power Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) has had on the industry and economy. Over R300 billion has been attracted for infrastructure investment and over 120 independent power producers have been selected as preferred bidders. These success factors indicate great potential for an optimal energy mix, led by renewable energy sources, to be attained. They also highlight opportunities for more private-sector investment. For this potential to be fully maximised, programme design, programme management and market dynamics will be critical to factor in. This report assesses the abovementioned overarching categories and illustrates mechanisms that will be integral to facilitating increased private sector investment into grid-connected renewable energy generation. This will yield efficient management of REIPPPP and further enable improved economic growth and sustainable development.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

160. Gold in Ghana: A Story of Unbalanced Exchange

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana and William Godfred Cantah
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: his paper presents the historical and institutional context of the development of the gold sector in Ghana, which sets the stage for examining the contribution of the sector to the economy and its exposure to capital flight. The analysis sheds light on the important role that the regulatory framework and the fiscal regime that govern the gold sector have played in perpetuating a system of unequal distribution of gains from gold exploitation in terms of tax revenue and foreign exchange earnings in favour of foreign gold companies. The statistical analysis of gold export statistics reveals substantial discrepancies between Ghana’s gold exports and the recorded value of imports by its trading partners. These differences point to export underinvoicing as a conduit of capital flight, while also exhibiting a systematic lack of transparency and inconsistencies vis-a-vis established international conventions governing the recording of trade transactions, especially in the case of gold destined for South Africa which does not show up in the latter’s import statistics. Overall, the analysis suggests that the gains from the gold sector remain much below potential, but that at the same time there may be room for reforms that can improve the benefits from gold exploitation for the country.
Topic:: Development, Regulation, Capital Flight, Exchange Rates, and Gold
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Ghana

161. Cocoa in Ghana, the ‘Political Crop’: Does State Control Shield the Cocoa Sector from Exposure to Capital Flight?

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana and Kwame Adjai-Mantey
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Since its introduction into Ghana in the 19th century, cocoa has been considered a strategic crop, over which the post-independence governments have maintained substantial control. Cocoa is indeed referred to as a ‘political crop.’ The cocoa sector is closely regulated by the government through the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). This paper aims to investigate whether this special industrial organization structure and the strict regulation help minimize the sector’s exposure to capital flight that would otherwise occur through export misinvoicing and leakage of foreign exchange earnings from cocoa exports. Indeed, compared to the gold sector in Ghana and the cocoa sector in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire, both of which are fully liberalized and dominated by foreign corporations, the cocoa sector in Ghana exhibits relatively little evidence of export misinvoicing. Moreover, cocoa export earnings are fully repatriated as they are in the hands of COCOBOD. The analysis, however, indicates that the gains from the cocoa sector in terms of contributions to GDP, tax revenue, and poverty reduction remain sub-optimal. This suggests that there is substantial room for improvement of these outcomes through targeted reforms and policy interventions at the sectoral level.
Topic:: Political Economy, Reform, Exports, Capital Flight, and Cocoa
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

162. Capital Flight from Natural Resource-Dependent African Countries: Updated Estimates and Analysis for the Cases of Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, 1970-2021

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper is part of a project that investigates domestic and global drivers and enablers of capital flight from Cameroon, Ghana, and Zambia, three countries that are significantly endowed in natural resources. It presents estimates of capital flight from these three countries and discusses the key drivers of the phenomenon. The results show that as of 2021, estimated total capital flight stood at $71.1 billion for Cameroon, $50 billion for Ghana, and $71.5 billion for Zambia. External borrowing and, in the cases of Zambia and Cameroon, trade misinvoicing, are key correlates of capital flight. While external borrowing directly and indirectly drives capital flight, trade misinvoicing constitutes an important mechanism of unrecorded cross-border capital flows. This study contributes to the efforts to uncover the mechanisms and enablers of capital flight from Africa, with the aim of shedding light on possible strategies to curb further capital outflows in the context of efforts to scale up and diversify development financing to support recovery from global crises, the transition to green growth, and sustainable development in Africa.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Capital Flight, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Zambia, Ghana, and Cameroon

163. Policy Responses to COVID-19: Why Social Cohesion and Social Protection Matter in Africa

Author:: Julia Leininger, Armin von Schiller, Christoph Strupat, and Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This empirical analysis investigates whether and to what extent social cohesion and the coverage of social protection schemes influence governments’ decisions about the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies during the first and second waves in 2020 in Africa. Our results indicate that societal and social factors influenced the stringency of containment policies. Social cohesion has a negative effect on the stringency of containment policies in response to COVID-19 over time. Social protection coverage has a positive effect on the stringency of containment policies in response to COVID-19 over time. States implemented more stringent containment policies in less cohesive societies if they already had social protection schemes in place before the pandemic. Contextual factors mediated these effects. While stringency of containment policies softened over time where levels of democracy, poverty, and inequality were higher, social protection made a mediating difference only in autocratic states and societies with higher poverty. Three contributions of the empirical analysis stand out. First, the conceptual integration of societal and social factors (“societal triangle”) provides a novel basis from which to analyse policy responses during external shocks like a global pandemic. Second, to overcome the limitations of current measurements of social cohesion, we use a novel measurement to determine pre-pandemic levels of social cohesion. Third, this is the first cross-national study that addresses a world region, Africa, which has gained little attention in the study of policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Topic:: Public Health, Social Cohesion, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:: Africa

164. The Effects of a Private-Sector-Driven Smallholder Support Programme on Productivity, Market Participation and Food and Nutrition Security: Evidence of a Nucleus-Outgrower Scheme from Zambia

Author:: Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Raoul Herrmann, Chewe Nkonde, Mwelwa Lukonde, and Michael Brüntrup
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Nucleus-outgrower schemes (NOSs) are supposed to be a particularly effective private-sector mechanism to support smallholder farmers and contribute towards mitigating the problematic aspects of pure large-scale agricultural investments. This discussion paper uses panel household survey data collected in two rounds in Zambia to analyse some agro-ecological and socio-economic impacts of the outgrower programme of one of the largest agricultural investments in Zambia: Amatheon Agri Zambia (AAZ) Limited. The descriptive results show that the type of participation in the programme varies across participants and components, with most participating in trainings. Econometric results suggest the following key findings. First, although the overall impact of the AAZ outgrower programme on the uptake of conservation agriculture practices is robust and promising, impacts on the adoption of other agricultural technologies is less obvious and the effect depends on the type of support provided. Second, the programme has had a significant impact on maize productivity promoted in the initial phase but not on the other crops – mainly oilseeds – promoted later. Third, the initially less productive farmers seem to benefit slightly more than already better performing ones. Fourth, although the impact on overall household security was insignificant, there is some suggestive evidence (although the effect is weak) that the programme has a positive effect on improving women’s uptake of micronutrients. Finally, our findings show that the three components of the programme (trainings, seed loans and output purchases) have different effects on the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices and productivity, and to some extent on food security. Overall, the results suggest that NOSs, with all their risks, can play a role in the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, improving farm-level agricultural technologies, providing input credit, and thereby improving productivity and smallholder livelihoods. However, this is not automatically the case, as it crucially depends on the design and management of the project; the availability of good policies and institutions governing the rules of operation; the types of crops promoted; the duration of the project; and the political commitment of host countries, among others.
Topic:: Markets, Food Security, Participation, Farming, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

165. Inequality and Social Cohesion in Africa: Theoretical Insights and an Exploratory Empirical Investigation

Author:: Francesco Burchi and Gabriela Zapata-Román
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Inequality is bad per se and has adverse effects, among other things, on economic development and the environment. It is also often argued that high and increasing inequalities put societies under stress, which increases the likelihood of social conflicts. However, the literature on this topic is scarce and some of the conclusions are not adequately supported by empirical evidence. This is mainly because there are different definitions and measurements of social cohesion. Moreover, some definitions of social cohesion incorporate inequality, thus making it impossible to examine how these two phenomena interact with one another. This paper analyses both theoretically and empirically, the relationship between inequality and social cohesion. To do so, it employs a recent definition of social cohesion provided by Leininger et al. (2021). According to this definition, social cohesion is composed of three core attributes, namely trust, inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good. These attributes are examined in two dimensions, namely the horizontal (relationship among individuals) and vertical (relationship between individuals and state institutions) dimensions of social cohesion. This paper provides an overview of the empirical evidence regarding the relationship between inequality and the three attributes of social cohesion. We find that while inequality is likely to have a negative effect on all three attributes, the intensity of the relationship may depend on some key mediating factors. Moreover, we highlight the main pathways through which inequality could affect each of the three key attributes. The empirical analysis focuses on Africa. While there is some work in this field in Europe and Asia, to the best of our knowledge, there has not been any related empirical work thus far that has focused on African countries. To measure the three attributes of social cohesion, we use a database generated by Leininger et al. (2021), which is based on data from Afrobarometer and the V-Dem Institute. Inequality is mainly measured by the Gini coefficient and data are sourced from the World Income Distribution dataset. As expected, our analysis shows that countries with higher inequality usually have lower levels of social cohesion, which is measured by an aggregate index. This negative correlation holds when we analyse the relationship between the Gini coefficient and the three attributes separately; however, the intensity varies. It is stronger for trust (rho=0.25) compared with the other two attributes (both of which have a rho equal to approximately 0.1). Additional investigations point to substantially different results for the horizontal and vertical dimensions of social cohesion. Higher levels of inequality are associated with lower levels of horizontal trust and horizontal cooperation. On the other hand, higher levels of inequality are associated with higher levels of vertical trust and are essentially uncorrelated with vertical cooperation. These relationships remain substantially unchanged when we use measures of income inequality other than the Gini coefficient. Further analyses that aim to explain the puzzling results for the vertical dimension of social cohesion reveal that our findings are not clearly driven by trust in a specific institution and are also not an artefact of the specific data we used. Indeed, we obtain similar results using data from the World Values Survey. At the same time, it appears that the positive relationship between inequality and vertical trust is visible only among African countries, whereas it is not observed at the global level or for other regions. Further research is needed to confirm whether Africa is truly exceptional in this regard, and if so, why that may be the case.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Economy, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Africa

166. Social Cohesion and Firms’ Access to Finance in Africa

Author:: Yabibal M. Walle
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Social cohesion has recently gained increasing attention in academic and policy circles. Apart from being a necessary feature of stable societies per se, social cohesion is also a key factor for sustainable economic development. One potential means through which social cohesion could foster economic development is by enhancing financial development. In this paper, we examine whether social cohesion is significantly associated with firms’ access to finance in Africa. To this end, we use a recently constructed dataset on social cohesion in Africa, which is based on the Afrobarometer survey and the Varieties of Democracy database. The dataset contains indices for the three pillars of social cohesion – trust, inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good. Combining this dataset with that of the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we build a sample which covers more than 12,500 firms and 27 African countries. Our results show that all three components of social cohesion are positively associated with at least one measure of firms’ access to external finance. In particular, trust – but not inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good – is significantly associated with the likelihood that firms have a checking or savings account, or are financially constrained. When we measure access to finance with respect to having a line of credit or a loan from a financial institution, all the three pillars of social cohesion, including inclusive identity and cooperation for the common good, are related to access to finance. The results are robust to addressing endogeneity concerns using a heteroskedasticity-based identification strategy. Overall, our results suggest that improving social cohesion (e.g. through social protection, education, strengthening civil society organisations) could do more than hold society together; it could also promote access to finance, growth of firms, and thus economic development and job creation.
Topic:: Finance, Business, Economic Development, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Africa

167. Green Jobs in Cities: Challenges and Opportunities in African and Asian Intermediary Cities

Author:: Wolfgang Scholz and Michael Fink
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Cities account for approximately 70 per cent of global energy consumption and about 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions due to the density of economic activities and infrastructure and their often path-dependent development patterns. Cities adopting a green transformation process can minimise their environmental impact and maximise opportunities to improve and support the natural environment. Topics to address are energy efficiency and reduction of non-renewable energy sources to reduce their carbon footprint; actively support waste reduction and management; establish green and resilient infrastructure; encourage nature-based solutions; enhance the efficiency of new buildings; encourage low-carbon transport; and improve water cycle management. Also, these fields will lead to a greener urban economy, create more green jobs – or respectively change jobs towards becoming green – and deliver improved quality of life outcomes for residents. The aim of this discussion paper is to address the challenges, opportunities and fields of actions – respectively interventions – of these economic, but also social transformations on the job market on the level of cities. The regional focus is on African and Asian cities in developing countries. A special focus is on intermediary cities with between 1 to 5 million inhabitants since they constitute the fastest-growing urban areas today and more importantly, they have both the capacity and expertise to guide an economic transformation while still being, at the same time, not too large to be managed effectively, as outlined above. The fields of action for cities in a transformation towards a green economy, thereby creating green jobs, can be clustered into: • land use planning • green buildings and construction • sustainable mobility and urban transport • green and blue urban infrastructure services with nature-based solutions (NBSs) as a cross-cutting issue • renewable energy and energy efficiency The employment effects of a transformation towards a green economy play an important role. The opportunities for cities in Africa and Asia to create green jobs under their own local mandates of decision-making in urban planning and within their own service providers, and/or to support the “greening” of the private sector, will obviously create more green jobs, and respectively shift current jobs into green jobs.
Topic:: Development, Cities, Carbon Emissions, Opportunity, Energy, and Green Jobs
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

168. Urbanisation and Rural Development in Developing Countries: A Review of Pathways and Impacts

Author:: Tekalign Gutu Sakketa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper reviews the current state of literature on the impacts of urbanisation on rural development in developing countries, with an emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Assessments of these effects diverge greatly. While some authors see urbanisation as strongly benefitting rural areas, for instance, through increased demand for agricultural goods and services, others highlight negative effects, for example, through the loss of livelihoods emanating from displacements and the conversion of agricultural land. Given this complexity, a review that thoroughly analyses the causal relationships between urbanisation and rural development is warranted. To do this, this Discussion Paper identifies seven channels through which urbanisation affects rural development: i) production and consumption linkages; ii) employment linkages; iii) financial linkages; iv) land market linkages; v) information and public service linkages; vi) social interactions linkages; and vii) environmental externalities. As to the first channel, production and consumption linkages, the review suggests that urbanisation has increased demand for agricultural products and services; natural resources; commercialisation and modernisation of agricultural technologies; and smallholders’ participation in modern agricultural value chains. The employment channel suggests that rapid urbanisation is enabling the diversification of rural livelihoods by bringing new economic opportunities to rural areas, but the effects have not been uniform across countries and communities. With regard to financial linkages, flows from cities have increased in many developing countries, benefitting rural areas; yet some studies point to no or to negative effects due to reduced agricultural productivity from the loss of labour and technology, and the crowding out of investment. Land market effects are particularly heterogeneous. While urbanisation tends to drive land value up and encourages investments, there are also negative developments in terms of crowding out and speculation. As to information and public service linkages, the review suggests that urbanisation has fostered information and knowledge flows from urban areas to rural areas which have improved income, innovation, and employment. Social interactions among urban and rural citizens more generally may bridge cultural gaps, improve the flow of information, knowledge, and resources pertinent for rural economic transformation, and thereby enhance social cohesion; yet little empirical evidence exists so far in terms of effects and causalities. Finally, urbanisation affects rural development through the environmental externalities it generates: waste disposal, environmental degradation, and loss of biodiversity. If appropriate technologies are put in place, urbanisation can also improve waste management and soil fertility, thus reducing the cost of agricultural production. To this end, the review has identified research gaps that have important policy implications. First, although effective rural-urban planning, monitoring and evaluation of rural-urban development policies require better data, there is lack of data collection systems or their quality is poor. In this respect, investing in emerging data sources such as satellites data can help countries improve their data collection systems and measures. Second, research is needed to revise and reformulate better theoretical frameworks that take into account the uniqueness of African urban cities. Third, empirical evidence which documents to what extent and how rural-urban linkages provide an important arena for improving social interactions among neighbours, societies, and communities is needed. Finally, as many African countries continue to experience rapid urbanisation (mostly urban sprawl), a thorough study of the impacts of urban externalities on agricultural productivity, food security, biodiversity, and the health of rural communities is necessary.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Urbanization, Employment, Finance, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

169. Only game in town? Inequality and demand for democracy in Africa – a micro perspective

Author:: Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In this paper, the author explores whether perceived inequality is associated with demand for democracy among Africans. Past research has diverged on whether macro-level inequality should increase or decrease support for democracy, with some arguing that people might see democracy as a solution to inequality, and others that people might see it as a cause. I advance this literature by using a perceptual measure of inequality from Afrobarometer: how people feel their living situation compares to others’ in their country. I find that perceived equality is significantly associated with greater demand for democracy, while perceptions of relative deprivation and relative advantage are both associated with lower democratic demand. These effects are largely significant above and beyond the effect of absolute poverty and known predictors of support for democracy, such as free and fair elections and level of education.
Topic:: Education, Elections, Democracy, Inequality, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Africa

170. Measuring the impact of self-censorship on political party support in Afrobarometer data using machine learning

Author:: Paul Friesen
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Measures of political party support are viewed suspiciously in hybrid and authoritarian regimes where the two core indicators of political support – elections and public opinion polling – cannot be readily trusted. More accurately, the degree of measurement error is unknown, though scholars presume support for incumbent leaders and parties is exaggerated. This paper scrutinizes the degree to which political opinions on Afrobarometer surveys can be trusted by re-estimating voting preferences for 34 African countries. First, a range of demographic and interview metadata are regressed upon vote choice to see if they systematically influence vote-preference responses. Next, key markers of potential self-censorship are identified and used to create pools of “clean” and “polluted” data. Clean data are used to train a machine learning model to predict voting intentions, and then all data with self-censorship markers are recalculated. The results show that ruling party support is broadly similar in most countries but exaggerated by more than 10 percentage points in Sudan and Uganda and by between 5 and 10 points in Burundi, Tanzania, Togo, and Zimbabwe. Declines in ruling party support due to self-censorship are concurrent with increases in both non-responses and opposition party support.
Topic:: Politics, Censorship, Party System, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa

171. Population density and governance in Africa

Author:: Pranish Desai
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Across Africa, denser populations are associated with less confidence in institutions and the rule of law. What does that mean for the world’s fastest-urbanising continent?
Topic:: Governance, Population, Urbanization, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Africa

172. Declining poverty level in Ghana: Exploring the role of migrants’ remittances

Author:: Daniel Armah-Attoh
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Ghana has a long history of citizens migrating to other countries. Many of these migrants send remittances to relations and acquaintances back home, often to help recipients experiencing poverty and a lack of employment and economic opportunities. Empirical studies have established the poverty-alleviation impact of remittances in Africa, including Ghana. This study uses pooled Afrobarometer survey data collected between 2002 and 2017 to assess the relationship between migrants’ remittances and lived poverty in Ghana. Multiple statistical approaches suggest that remittances have a negative and statistically significant impact on lived poverty. We therefore recommend that the government institute policy measures to encourage the use of formal channels for such transfers to enable the country to harness the full development potential, including the poverty-reduction benefits, of migrants’ remittances.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Migrants, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

173. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Party System, Multi Party System, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

174. Rising concern, falling performance: Health-sector challenges evident before and after onset of COVID-19 pandemic

Author:: Carolyn Logan and Tosin Salau
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: As Africa and the world begin to regroup now that the worst ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic appear to be past, it is an opportune time to take stock of the state of health care systems on the continent. The pandemic is not over – South Africa is just coming out of its fifth wave of infection (Al Jazeera, 2022), and there may be more to come (Landman, Irfan, & Resnick, 2022). In the meantime, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (2022) and national governments continue to scale up their vaccination campaigns. But the war in Ukraine and global economic deterioration have finally supplanted COVID-19 at the top of the news cycle. In the early stages of the pandemic, many assessments warned of the possibly extreme vulnerability of Africans to the pandemic based in part on the many challenges already facing health care systems across much of the continent (Mattes, Logan, Gyimah-Boadi, & Ellison, 2020). While the direst predictions did not come to pass in most countries – South Africa being a notable exception – the pandemic has highlighted gaps in health systems amid the recognition that the next global health crisis could hit harder if improvements and preparations are not made. Taking a longer-term view, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) also highlight the need to strengthen health systems (United Nations, 2018). SDG#3 focuses on good health and well-being. But Afrobarometer’s SDG Scorecards, based on our most recent data from 34 countries surveyed in Round 8 (2019/2021), show that from the perspective of citizens, only a handful of countries have been making significant progress toward achieving this SDG (Afrobarometer, 2021). Instead, a growing number of Africans report going without medical care, and the share who cite health as one of their country’s most important problems is also on the rise. Even among those who do get care, increasing proportions report finding it difficult, and having to pay bribes, to obtain the medical services they need. Not surprisingly, citizens are also increasingly critical of their governments’ performance in this sector: For the first time in two decades of Afrobarometer polling, a majority of respondents say their governments are performing badly on improving basic health services. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the challenges wrought by the pandemic were not the cause of these increasingly negative reviews: The downward trends were already under way before COVID-19 entered the picture, and in fact, in some cases the trends appear to be somewhat less negative since the onset of the pandemic.
Topic:: Health, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

175. Unresponsive and corrupt? Ugandan MPs hold key to how citizens perceive them

Author:: Matthias Krönke and Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Uganda’s legislature is made up of 556 members of Parliament (MPs) who are meant to represent and serve their constituents and oversee the government’s actions. Since President Yoweri Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party came to power in 1986 and appointed all members of Parliament, the country’s legislature has changed in several important ways (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009). First, today all MPs are either directly elected via a first-past-the-post system or indirectly elected via special electoral colleges. Second, the number of parliamentarians has almost doubled over 25 years, from 295 in the 6th Parliament (1996-2001) to 556 in the current 11th Parliament (Inter-Parliamentary Union, 1996; Parliament of Uganda, 2022).1 This drastic increase can be attributed to the continued creation of new constituencies and the allocation of parliamentary seats for special-interest groups. Proponents of this development say it reflects citizens’ demands, but critics describe it as part of a political strategy to protect and grow the ruling party’s seat share in Parliament by increasing the number of constituencies in NRM strongholds (Nakatudde, 2020; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). This debate has now entered a new phase with the recent ruling by the country’s Constitutional Court that Parliament and the Electoral Commission violated articles 51 and 63 of the Constitution by creating new constituencies that do not meet the population quota, based on data from the 2002 and 2014 census counts. The upshot of this ruling are proposals to downsize Uganda’s Parliament and redraw constituency boundaries (Barigaba, 2022). Third, the operating costs of the growing Parliament (MP and staff salaries, allowances, etc.) have increased drastically over the past two decades. Today Ugandan MPs’ salaries (35 million Uganda shillings, or about USD 9,700, per month) surpass those of most MPs elsewhere in Africa and in the European Union (BusinessTech, 2017; Olukya, 2021; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). The cost of running Uganda’s 11th Parliament was expected to increase by more than 50 billion Ugandan shillings (USD 14.1 million), a substantial increase compared to the previous Parliament (Mufumba, 2021). Fourth, the share of MPs who return to Parliament after their first term in office continues to decrease. While about 50% of MPs did not return for a second term in the 6th (1996-2001) and 7th (2001-2006) Parliaments, this rate has increased to 53% (2006-2011), 55% (2011-2016), and 58% (2016-2021) in subsequent Parliaments. Most recently, of the 457 MPs in the 10th Parliament, 319 were not voted back to the 11th Parliament (2021-2026), while 31 did not contest or chose to run for other offices, and only 107 MPs returned (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009; Forum for Women in Democracy, 2016; Independent, 2021). How do these changes affect 1) how citizens relate to their elected representatives and 2) how MPs address the needs of ordinary citizens? More broadly, are citizens being served by their MPs? To answer these questions, this policy paper begins by clarifying the foundations of the citizen-MP relationship and outlining the four key roles that MPs are generally expected to fulfil. The subsequent sections assess their performance in these roles against citizen expectations and other indicators. We find that Ugandans are becoming increasingly aware of their role in holding their MPs accountable. Most citizens are dissatisfied with how their MPs are doing their jobs, perceive them as corrupt, and say MPs don’t listen to constituents’ concerns. Residents of the Central region and Kampala are particularly critical of their MPs’ performance, probably due at least in part to high constituent-to-MP ratios in those areas. Citizens’ assessments of MP performance are associated with MPs’ perceived responsiveness and corruption as well as whether citizens have had contact with their MPs. In contrast, citizens’ demographic characteristics and views about democracy do not seem to drive their views of their elected representatives. There are two clear policy implications of these findings. First, at the institutional level, it is important to even out the citizen-to-MP ratios across the country. This is in line with the recent constitutional court ruling to base the creation of constituencies on census data. The second policy implication of our findings is that MPs have it in their own hands to change how citizens view their performance by improving on how they engage with them.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

176. Profile and determinants of lived poverty in Benin

Author:: Romaric Samson and Richard Houessou
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, launched in 2015, outlines global aspirations and priorities through the end of this decade. Prominently, the first two Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for ending poverty “in all its forms everywhere” and for “zero hunger” (United Nations, 2021a). The proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty decreased from 36% in 1990 to 16% in 2010 and to 10% in 2015, but the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have reversed this trend (Sumner, Hoy, & Ortiz-Juarez, 2020). Benin has had one of the fastest-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years (Adegoke, 2019), with per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging 3.6% between 2017 and 2019 (World Bank, 2020). But the most recent household survey led by the Institut National de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Economique (2018) estimated that 38.5% of citizens still live in poverty. Are GDP gains translating into better lives for ordinary Beninese? According to Afrobarometer survey findings, “lived poverty” – the experience of going without basic life necessities – has worsened significantly over the past decade in Benin. More than three out of four Beninese face moderate or high levels of lived poverty. Many of these citizens continue to have limited access to the electricity grid, water and sanitation services, and other essential development infrastructure. Most importantly, our analysis shows they often lack the education and employment needed to break the poverty cycle.
Topic:: Education, Poverty, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Job Creation
Political Geography:: Africa and Benin

177. Financing Pledges and Managing Expectations

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The aim of Egypt’s chairmanship of the latest climate change conference was on the implementation of financing pledges to realise specific goals for mitigating the climate crisis. Yet, limited success was achieved. Going forward, it is necessary to manage expectations and to redirect efforts into what is deliverable.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Finance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Egypt, and MENA

178. Justice Options for Ethiopia: Eight Options to Provide Redress for Ethiopia's Victims

Author:: Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The most recent conflict in Ethiopia has claimed thousands of lives and perpetrators have enjoyed almost complete impunity for their crimes. Ɣ Justice and accountability for perpetrators on all sides are desperately needed to demonstrate that perpetrators will not escape punishment, to provide recognition and repair to victims, and to promote social healing and reconciliation. Ɣ Ethiopian civil society representatives have called for the full spectrum of transitional justice mechanisms including criminal accountability, reparations, truth telling, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, East Africa, and Tigray

179. The Emergence of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and Lessons from the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement

Author:: Samuel Igbatayo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Africa’s regional integration agenda arrived at a cross roads in 2019, with the adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA framework came into force on 30th May, 2019, with its ratification by The Gambia, which brought the total number of African Union (AU) member state ratifications to twenty-two, the minimum threshold for AfCFTA implementation (Baker McKenzie 2019). As of May; 2022, forty-three of the 55 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement (African Union 2018). The 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in Niamey on 7th July; 2019, witnessed the launching of AfCFTA’s operational phase, which is governed by five instruments, namely: the rules of origin, the online negotiating forum, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; a digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory. In addition, the beginning of trade under the terms of the agreement was set for July 1, 2020 (TRALAC 2020). A free trade agreement (FTA) can be aptly described as a pact between two or more countries on areas in which they agree to lift most or all tariffs, and other barriers to imports and exports among them (Barone 2019). Under a free trade framework, goods and services can be traded across international borders, with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange. The theory of free trade Agreements is rooted in classical economics, dating back to the era of Adam Smith. During this period, David Ricardo (1772-1823), a British political economist, was acknowledged with pioneering thoughts on free trade as a key instrument for wealth accumulation. The evolution of preferential trade agreements is traceable to the rise of European countries after World War II, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, a development that eventually culminated in the creation of the European Union (EU) (Johnston 2019). Spurred by the success of regional bodies with free trade agreements and Africa’s poor trading performance; estimated at a paltry 3% of annual global trade, the African Union embarked upon the creation of the AfCFTA agreement as a tool for Intra-Africa trade and regional integration.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia-Pacific

180. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Munsu Kang
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study investigates the climate change impacts on agriculture and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA is the most vulnerable region responding to the weather shocks such as drought and flood. Furthermore, more than half of population in SSA are engaged in agricultural production that is highly affected by the rainfall pattern and temperature increases. For this reason, disruption of agriculture caused by the weather shock also can increase the probability of conflict such as demonstration and riot. This study focuses on 43 SSA countries after excluded small islands. Using scenario analysis, we find that temperature increases rather than precipitation might affect maize and sorghum production negatively while it is unclear for the rice production. We also find that increases in average temperature and maximum temperature might increase the probability of conflicts even if the effects of climate on riot and demonstration are U-shape pattern while it is reverse U-shape for battle and civilian conflicts.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

181. Localizing Humanitarian Action in Africa

Author:: Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Kurtzer Jacob D., and Hareem Fatima Abdullah
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The international humanitarian community is increasingly focusing on the need for local and national actors to lead humanitarian response and recovery efforts in conflict-affected or disaster-prone regions, especially in the Global South. Local and national actors responding to crises remain severely underfunded, particularly in Africa, where civil society organizations (CSOs) receive insufficient funding from African and international actors alike. African funders reportedly directed 9 percent of large gifts to African CSOs between 2010 and 2019, while non-African philanthropists provided 14 percent of their funding to these groups. The United States is the world’s largest foreign assistance donor, having contributed $35.5 billion in overseas development assistance (ODA) in 2020. Much of this aid goes to sub-Saharan Africa, including $8.5 billion to 47 countries and 8 regional programs in 2020. Yet national and local organizations receive little of this funding directly. At the same time, Washington has repeatedly signaled a commitment to the “localization” of humanitarian aid, or the shift of decisionmaking power, program implementation, and resources to local and national actors. Yet localized humanitarian assistance in Africa has failed to materialize. Bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles, as well as geostrategic calculations, pose a challenge to localization efforts. African voices are excluded from the decisionmaking landscape—in donor discussions and localization efforts themselves—resulting in a gap in cultural competency. The conversation on localization in Africa cannot be limited to the African continent; it must occur in donor capitals, with African voices leading the dialogue. To achieve sustainable localization, the U.S. and African policy landscapes should resolve bureaucratic obstacles and shift an exclusionary aid paradigm to one that is inclusive and builds on existing successes.
Topic:: Security, Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Intervention, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa

182. CCP Inc. in West Africa: How Chinese Party-State Actors Secured Critical Minerals in Guinea

Author:: Briana Boland, Lauren Maranto, and Jude Blanchette
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This CCP Inc. case study explores how Chinese diplomatic, regulatory, financial, and commercial actors work in concert to secure critical minerals in the West African nation of Guinea. Efforts in Guinea to mine bauxite and iron ore, the primary inputs for aluminum and steel, illuminate Beijing’s conduits for influencing and supporting its geo-economic objectives. Examining one key Chinese player in Guinea’s mining sector, this study highlights state actors’ connections with nominally private Chinese companies and the importance of partnerships with state-owned enterprises for building costly infrastructure. Across multiple bauxite and iron ore mining ventures, Chinese diplomatic support and state financing provided conduits to help further favored projects and increase Chinese companies’ access to Guinea’s mining industries.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Mining, and Superpower
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Guinea

183. Concurrent Crises in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Kurtzer Jacob D., Sierra Ballard, and Hareem Fatima Abdullah
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: The greater Horn of Africa, stretching from southern Ethiopia to northern Kenya and Somalia, is experiencing its worst drought in four decades. A fourth consecutive failed rainy season caused by the La Niña weather phenomenon has generated extreme drought conditions that have curtailed agricultural production, destroyed crops, and killed more than 3 million livestock, threatening the livelihoods and lives of millions of farmers and pastoralists. Across the region, more than 20 million people currently face starvation, and nearly 6 million children under the age of five are acutely malnourished. The number of individuals impacted by acute food insecurity will likely increase to over 25 million by mid-2022, hitting conflict-affected Ethiopia and Somalia the hardest, potentially leading to widespread malnutrition and starvation. Droughts in the region are not new, but they are becoming more frequent and severe, resulting in longer-term impacts. Climate models forecast the upcoming October–December rains to underperform, meaning the region will likely see an unprecedented five-season drought. Rangelands are unable to recover from increasing drought cycles and pastoralist livelihoods may no longer be viable in many areas. The current drought is the latest of many crises afflicting the Horn, including the Covid-19 pandemic, devastating floods, and locust outbreaks. The Horn is also one of the most conflict-affected regions of the world. Each country in the Horn has experienced some measure of political strife for decades. Conflict and violence have compounded the effects of climatic shocks on affected populations by creating additional needs and barriers for international humanitarian organizations and frontline local actors. Women and girls are bearing the brunt of these concurrent crises due to prevailing gender inequalities, which hinder their participation in decisionmaking mechanisms and humanitarian response and recovery efforts, undermining the integration of local actors in humanitarian action. While resilience-building efforts have made some progress in mitigating impacts from drought, they are not yet scaled to the overwhelming need. The combined effects of the climatic and political crises necessitate both an emergency humanitarian response and the implementation of long-term climate adaptation and resilience strategies.
Topic:: Environment, Water, Disaster Management, and Drought
Political Geography:: Africa

184. Finding a Path through Quagmire

Author:: Will Brown
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: n the Central Sahelian nations of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, a decade of violent instability has left 18 million individuals in need of humanitarian assistance. Climate change, underdevelopment, ethnic violence, corruption, and state decay have left civilians in need of peacebuilding, humanitarian, and development support. The deterioration of security conditions, however, has limited civilian access to essential services and impacted humanitarian response capabilities. Donors have promoted the “triple nexus” approach aimed at enhancing the coordination and effectiveness of humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding interventions. Yet, implementation in the Sahel has been hamstrung by a lack of common understanding among partners and a disconnect between the interests and operations of humanitarian and security actors. For the triple nexus approach to effectively improve conditions in the Sahel, humanitarian, development, and security partners must improve collaboration. Actors in the region should develop operational frameworks that ensure they enhance complementary objectives.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Intervention, Humanitarian Crisis, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

185. Supporting Water Programming in the Sahel

Author:: Conor M. Savoy and Alexandra Norris
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Sahel region of Africa is one of the most climate-affected regions in the world. Temperatures are rising 1.5 percent faster than the global average rate. Increasing temperatures and irregular rainfall have resulted in regular droughts and floods that disrupt traditional agropastoral patterns and contribute to broader instability and fragility. Lake Chad, a crucial water and livelihood source for 30 million people in the Sahel, has shrunk by 90 percent since 1960, displacing 2.3 million people and creating a humanitarian crisis. Periods of prolonged and intense drought and improper land use have degraded much of the soil in the Sahel. In Burkina Faso, over one-third of farmland is degraded, meaning some land cannot sustain agriculture even when there is enough rainfall. A rapidly increasing population, coupled with the impact of climate change, means more people are competing for diminishing water resources. This results in a vicious cycle of population growth, land degradation, and food instability. The greater the population, the greater the demand for food and the greater the use of unsustainable farming practices, exacerbating food scarcity and demand for additional farmland. As the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) updates its water strategy, it is important to examine the interplay of economic and conflict fragility, irregular migration, climate change, and water availability in the Sahel to identify interventions for greater resilience. In a region like the Sahel, water is critical to resilience and adaptation to the effects of climate change. While water strategy is not a cure-all, it can improve outcomes for other challenges. The Biden administration recently announced the new Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), an initiative to mobilize private capital investment in infrastructure. The four pillars of this initiative—climate and energy security, digital connectivity, health and health security, and gender equality and equity—could support additional investments in water infrastructure.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Health, Water, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

186. CAN DEBT RELIEF CONSTRAIN REPRESSIVE GOVERNMENTS?

Author:: Brett L. Carter
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The African continent is confronting the prospect of a new debt crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on government finances. The Russian government’s war against Ukraine has increased the cost of food and energy, and compelled investors to sell off government bonds in emerging markets. Rising interest rates in the United States will increase the cost of borrowing. The Chinese economy is struggling under the weight of Xi Jinping’s “Zero COVID” policy and accumulated real estate debt. In 2015, the International Monetary Fund announced that eight countries were in debt distress. By March 2022, 23 were. In June, public debt ratios reached a 20-year high. Africa’s debt-distressed governments “are unlikely to default” in 2022,” The Economist observed, “but face trouble by 2024.” There is some evidence that the debt crisis is especially acute for Africa’s non-democracies. The impending debt crisis coincides with a general sense that Africa is experiencing a democratic recession. Voters are increasingly subject to intimidation and violence. Incumbent presidents are removing term limits. The longstanding norm against military coups is fading.
Topic:: Cold War, Debt, World Bank, GDP, Repression, and IMF
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and United States of America

187. DOES THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS ON APARTHEID IN SOUTH AFRICA HOLD CLUES FOR THE UYGHURS?

Author:: Maria Lotito
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: A new report from the United Nations finds that China may have committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and that human rights violations are ongoing. The abuse flows from China’s “Strike Hard” campaign, executed to counter separatism and extremism, subjecting Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities to mass detentions, forced labor and sterilizations, cultural suppression, and surveillance. The report comes months after the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, before which some governments sympathetic to the Uyghurs’ plight staged diplomatic boycotts, to little avail. The UN report, much like the Olympic boycotts, will change few minds. What does it take to generate intergovernmental consensus around broad-scale human rights violations? Such convergence, even upon opposition to egregious human rights abuse, is rare and difficult to achieve. This is because violating governments are skilled at subverting international human rights norms and onlooking states have many reasons to avoid acting. Abusive practices might be reframed as responsible policy, or covered up. Meanwhile, supposedly compliant governments contend with a panoply of bilateral interests, some incompatible with international norms.
Topic:: Apartheid, Human Rights, Arab Spring, Color Revolutions, Soviet Union, and Consensus
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Iceland

188. How Innovative Financing Models Can Support the Scaling of Supply Chain Innovations

Author:: Allie Dichiara and John Simon
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Substantial progress has been made toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3: Health and Well-Being for All. However, progress is plateauing as global health development funding decelerates, and much of the remaining gaps are among the hardest to address, especially for the most vulnerable and hardest-to-reach communities. A key element to reigniting progress toward SDG 3 is significantly improving the effectiveness of the current fragmented health commodity supply chain, through which billions in spending—approximately $6 billion in donor funds in 2015 and $50 billion in overall spending in 2017—flow each year to low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). Fortunately, there is a growing number of innovative supply chain solutions available across sub-Saharan Africa that could have the potential to dramatically improve the underperforming status quo.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Africa

189. One world, many knowledges: Epistemological pluralism and African scholarship (Full Issue)

Author:: Moliehi Ramonate, Nnaemeka Ohamadike, Helen Acton, Malvern Kudakwashe Marewo, Senzo Ncube, Nene-Lomotey Kuditchar, Ross Harvey, Terence Corrigan, Kendra Connock, Jordan McLean, and Laura Rubidge
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Africa Governance Papers (TAGP)
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: This issue reflects something of the journal’s multi- and interdisciplinary ambitions, with articles employing a range of research methodologies and looking at very different topics in Lesotho, Zimbabwe and South Africa, as well as broader-ranging issues in West Africa and the continent.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Research, Populism, Maritime, Accountability, Innovation, Oversight, Pluralism, Epistemology, and Traditional Leaders
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

190. Roadmap to Zero-Carbon Electrification of Africa by 2050: The Green Energy Transition and the Role of the Natural Resource Sector (Minerals, Fossil Fuels, and Land)

Author:: Jeffrey D. Sachs, Perrine Toledano, and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: All Africans—whether living in urban or rural areas—need access to affordable, clean, efficient, reliable, climateproof, and renewable energy for both residential and productive uses to achieve sustainable development objectives. This report sets out a comprehensive and actionable roadmap for Africa’s zero-carbon energy transformation by 2050, with most advances achieved by 2030. Natural resource management in minerals, fossil fuels, and land sits at the core of the strategy. The world is moving to decarbonization by 2050. This was the dominant geopolitical message of 2021, appearing, for example, in U.S. President Joe Biden’s online summit with world leaders in April 2021 and in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Report on Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, which stated that there was “no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply” in a pathway to net zero by 2050. Africa will be part of this global trend. The UNFCCC COP 26 evidenced the continued commitment to the world to this agenda, with the Global Methane Pledge and the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use, holding strong promises to respectively reduce methane by 2030 by 30% relatively to 2020 levels and end all deforestation by 2030 while strongly investing in reforestation. Prospective oil and gas projects in Africa will no longer be pursued as overseas markets and financing will shrink. The Russian war on Ukraine in 2022 has reinforced the determination of Europeans and Americans to wean off Russian gas in the short term and off all gas in the medium to long term, seeing in the energy transition an opportunity to meet parallel goals of decarbonization and energy independence. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 notes that, even under a relatively conservative “stated policies” scenario, global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak or plateau in the coming years and subsequently fall. The report also notes that the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though leading to a short-term increase in fossil fuel demand, has consolidated the global long-term shift toward renewable energy, energy efficiency, and electrification. In parallel to this reality, Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, in the solar and hydropower sectors especially, will engage increasingly bankable and highly attractive investments. In net terms, Africa has a huge amount to gain from a decisive buildup of renewable energy and the capacity to produce the minerals, hardware, and software of the new zero-carbon energy economy.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Africa

191. Return and Recuperation Strategies on Returnees to Nigeria: The Libya Episode

Author:: A.J. Aluko, D.O. Apeloko, and Bello M. Ayodele
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The paper examined the strategies put in place by the governmental agencies for the reintegration of returnees. Primary and secondary data were utilized for the study. Preliminary data were collected through the administration of questionnaires and interviews. The study population (10,369) comprised the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA, 34), National Agency against Trafficking in Persons and other related crime (NAPTIP, 108), International Organisation for Migration (IOM, 34), Nigeria in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM, 15) and Nigeria returnees (10,180) from Libya. The sample for the study was made up of 399 respondents. The distribution is as follows: NEMA (17), NAPTIP (54), IOM (16), NiDCOM (15), and returnees (297). Secondary data will be obtained from decision extracts of the agencies on matters relating to the subject matter, conciliation meetings, and internet sources. Data collected were analyzed using frequency, distribution, percentage, and Chi-square. The study showed the effect of strategies put in place by governmental agencies, which have enhanced the economic development of the returnees; reduced irregular or illegal migration to Europe through the Libya route; returnees’ psychological rehabilitation of returnees in Nigeria. Furthermore, the Chisquare analysis showed that the x2 cal (9.2) is greater than x2 tab (5.99); hence, the rejection of the null hypothesis and it founds a significant relationship between government agencies and the returnees’ reintegration. The study concluded that governmental agencies' strategies have an effect on the reintegration of the returnees.
Topic:: Crime, Development, Migration, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

192. New Paradigm for Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Are Decentralized Hybrid Systems Changing the Game?

Author:: Hugo Le Picard
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: After several decades of reforms, the situation in centralized power sectors has hardly changed. The sub-Saharan power sector remains underdeveloped, and power sectors are experiencing significant financial difficulties that have been further exacerbated first by the effects of the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine. The operating losses of all African power sectors exceeded $150 billion in 2020. In view of the region’s population growth, centralized grids cannot fully meet their electricity needs, even in areas with access. Consequently, individuals and businesses are motivated to become more independent from the centralized grid to meet their electricity consumption needs. Market mechanisms are at work to fill the gaps created by the weakness of the centralized grid. The market for decentralized systems is experiencing strong growth in the region and has enormous potential in light of the grid's weakness: in addition to 600 million sub-Saharans without access to electricity, there are 500 million with access but who are coping with an unreliable or expensive grid. On a continent-wide basis, this is an opportunity worth more than $350 billion by 2030. The large-scale expansion of the market for decentralized systems in areas covered by the grid is significant for the development of the sector. In view of the significant increase in urban population and the increasing attractiveness of decentralized systems, it cannot be excluded that the existing, yet weak, centralized grid may become partly redundant. However, a power sector that develops around decentralized systems can also have advantages, if these new uses are designed and integrated into the development policies of power grids. These systems can provide faster access to electricity than the centralized grid for people without access. Similarly, the high modularity of these systems allows consumers with existing access to electricity to climb the energy ladder, enabling them to access new electrical services depending on their budget and needs. The lower cost of decentralized, renewable systems can also reduce the cost of electricity for commercial and industrial consumers, promoting their economic competitiveness and the penetration of renewable technologies across the continent. Decentralized generation capacity can also increase grid resilience, making consumers less dependent on centralized infrastructure. Finally, in the longer term, if electricity is generated primarily where it is consumed, it does not need to transit through transmission lines. It would also prevent electricity losses along transmission lines, that are high in many countries in the region. It would also limit the need for substantial investment in grid infrastructure which is difficult to raise private funds for and for which the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates an average of $40 billion per year is needed in the coming years. While the region’s centralized power sectors are experiencing increasing difficulties due to Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, decentralized systems will be called upon to play a key role in expanding access to electricity on the continent now more than ever. With the availability of capital dwindling in emerging countries, development finance institutions (DFI) could further support investment in the ecosystem of businesses trading in green decentralized solutions to facilitate access to clean electricity on the continent.
Topic:: Business, Electricity, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

193. Africa’s Infrastructure-Led Growth Experiment Is Faltering. It Is Time to Focus on Agriculture

Author:: David Ndii
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Over the past few decades, several low- and middle-income economies in Africa and elsewhere have sought to turbocharge growth by adopting an export-led economic model premised on heavy investments in infrastructure and building up domestic manufacturing capacity. But this strategy has often not produced the economic gains that have been promised for a variety of reasons. The continued emphasis on infrastructure investment fails to account for the fact that even those African countries that have invested a great deal in infrastructure continue to lag other countries in Asia (like Bangladesh) in key manufacturing sectors like textiles regardless of infrastructure quality. In addition, this approach overlooks the fact that African countries do not have the same comparative advantages as the Asian Tigers that perfected and popularized the export-led growth model: while those Asian countries had an abundance of low-wage labor, wages in Africa are typically higher than those of other countries at comparable development levels. Instead of fixating on infrastructure, African countries should look to the experience of Latin American countries with similar resource endowments: a greater relative abundance of land than low-cost labor. As this experience shows, countries can make far more durable, sustainable economic gains by focusing on improving agricultural productivity with relatively low-cost improvements targeted at smallholder farmers for whom a boost in productivity would have the largest impact.
Topic:: Agriculture, Infrastructure, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Africa

194. Will France’s Africa Policy Hold Up?

Author:: Corentin Cohen
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: During his first term, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to revitalize his country’s diplomatic outreach to countries throughout Africa. Some aspects of this pivot were designed to more directly address the legacy of French colonialism in Francophone countries. He also sensed that the growing stature of non-Western powers like China has given African counterparts greater latitude to pursue ties amid heightened diplomatic competition among a host of other countries both in Europe and elsewhere. In pursuing this strategy, Macron has sought to promote a vision of French diplomacy with Africa through greater foreign aid and more robust people-to-people ties grounded in a spirit of partnerships between equals. While Macron’s efforts have created an opening for renewed relationships, this pivot has not been as seamless as he had hoped. Bureaucratic inertia and stovepiping in French foreign policy circles have at times meant that implementation of these policies has lagged. In certain cases, Macron’s own nationalistic appeals during his recent reelection bid have appeared to undercut his attempts to make amends for France’s troubling colonial history. Meanwhile the French president’s attempts to deepen economic, people-to-people, and security ties in more equitable ways have fallen short of lofty expectations, with past practices proving harder than expected to jettison. For Macron’s ambitions for French relations with African countries to keep their momentum, the president and his team must take an earnest look at what has worked well and what can still be improved.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Diplomacy, Partnerships, Emmanuel Macron, and Degrowth
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and France

195. Halting the Kleptocratic Capture of Local Government in Nigeria

Author:: Matthew T. Page and Abdul H. Wando
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Too often viewed as a monolithic state, Nigeria has complex subnational governance systems that can have outsized impacts on its trajectory. The state is covered with a vibrant but frayed political quilt, consisting of three layers: the federal government in Abuja, thirty-six state governments, and 774 local governments. Frequently overlooked, Nigeria’s local governments are disproportionately important; if they functioned well, they would be best positioned to meet people’s basic needs and to build their resilience to cope with everyday challenges. Matthew T. Page Matthew T. Page is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In reality, however, “no local government [in Nigeria] works for the people.”1 Instead, “every household is its own local government,” sourcing its basic needs—water, electricity, education, and healthcare—however it can.2 Exhausted by local government kleptocracy—a system in which those who govern steal from the governed—Nigerians understand that they must fend for themselves. While local government corruption is a global problem not unique to Nigeria, it is nevertheless crucial to address. It fuels democratic backsliding, communal conflict, and poverty. By hurting governance outcomes at the subnational level, local government corruption is quietly hobbling Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Domestic Politics, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

196. What China Is Learning From West African Managerial Practices

Author:: Abdoulkadre Ado
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Joint ventures have enabled Chinese companies to cultivate a presence in three West African countries—Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Investing in joint ventures has enabled Chinese cultural adaptation by emphasizing training programs in languages commonly spoken in West Africa, embracing local management styles, and assimilating some local practices. This has been especially true in three key economic sectors: free trade zone promotion and related services, transportation and aviation, and oil and gas. Chinese firms are also complementing these growing business arrangements with the use of local languages, social media outreach, and other forms of local engagement with West Africans. In doing so, Chinese organizations have responded to some of the demands of their African partners in local, state, and central government posts. It would be beneficial for African governments, businesses, and corporate managers to explore further ways to incentivize Chinese government decisionmakers and Chinese businesses to use joint ventures more often as the vehicle for their investments in Africa. To deepen the impact of such efforts, they should also encourage Chinese organizations active in West Africa, and across the continent in general, to embrace the use of local languages, especially for conducting business, and to train more Chinese expatriates to use African managerial philosophies that have proven to respect local values while being effective in African markets. Research on China’s engagement abroad and Chinese firms’ business operations in foreign countries often argues that Chinese organizations are not keen to adapt to local contexts. As a result, some analysts of China-Africa relations argue, or at least imply, that China does things as it wishes in Africa and that African countries have little agency in shaping how Chinese governmental and commercial players operate in their countries. Some analysts have even characterized African countries’ relationships with Beijing as the “Chinisation of Africa.”1 This line of thinking tends to assume that local contexts have mattered little for Chinese economic activities in Africa so far. But Chinese commercial engagement in Africa is increasingly adaptative to local contexts, conditions, and complexities. In Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria, Chinese actors are adjusting their ways of doing business to consider local realities with respect to both formal and informal institutions. For one thing, the Chinese players who are active in these three countries are acknowledging and mobilizing African practices and cultural traditions to support their own business goals and sometimes those of their local partners. The level of Chinese economic engagement tends to differ from one African country to another, with some places being more welcoming of a Chinese commercial presence than others. The specific patterns of Chinese adaptation also tend to vary between different parts of Africa. For instance, these adaptations may look different in a Francophone country like Niger than they would in a country like Nigeria. Niger is a nation where China’s adaptation differs from its adaptation in Ghana or Nigeria since language and managerial practices partly are derived from various French and British cultural traditions and colonial imprints in those three African countries.
Topic:: Business, Engagement, Management, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and West Africa

197. Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections

Author:: Clionadh Raleigh and Caleb Wafula
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle, marking the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010. This represents the end of the second and final term of the Jubilee Alliance party government under President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, a current presidential contender. The presidential campaign between Raila Odinga — another ‘legacy’ candidate who has previously run four unsuccessful presidential campaigns — and Ruto has experienced some local troubles, but the focus during this campaign is whether the Kenyan electoral landscape has really shifted to emphasize class, demographic, and elite divisions.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

198. Wagner Group Operations in Africa: Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mal

Author:: Ladd Serwat, Heni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone, and Timothy Lay
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 30 March 2022, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament launched an inquiry into states’ use of private military contractors (PMC), drawing particular attention to the prominent Russian PMC known as the Wagner Group (UK Parliament, 30 March 2022). The decision to launch the inquiry came as Wagner Group forces deployed to Ukraine, and a series of reports emerged implicating Wagner mercenaries in human rights violations in Mali. This was only one of the latest efforts to investigate the Wagner Group’s activities. Past initiatives came amid heightened international concern over Wagner Group operations in the Central African Republic (CAR). Multiple UN bodies have previously tabled concerns or opened investigations into alleged abuses perpetrated by Wagner mercenaries (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021; UN Info, 31 March 2021). In June 2021, the UN Panel of Experts on CAR tabled reports of “indiscriminate killings” and violence against civilians at the hands of “Russian instructors” to the UN Security Council (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021). The UN peacekeeping mission in CAR (MINUSCA) and Rwandan special forces have also expressed concerns about joint operations with Wagner over alleged human rights violations (UN Info, 31 March 2021; Corbeau News, 13 June 2021). Moreover, the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group and Wagner-linked individuals in December 2021 (European Council, 13 December 2021). In light of growing concerns about Wagner’s activities in Mali and their deployment in Ukraine, this report analyzes ACLED data on the group’s engagement in political violence in recent years. It focuses on civilian targeting by the Wagner Group in CAR and Mali, where they have operated alongside state forces since 2018 and 2021, respectively. Analysis of the data reveals several clear trends:
Topic:: Human Rights, Armed Forces, Civilians, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and Central African Republic

199. No Time to Waste: Governing Cobalt Amid the Energy Transition

Author:: David Manley, Patrick Heller, and William Davis
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Cobalt is critical. Along with other critical minerals, cobalt has important economic uses and currently few viable substitutes, yet its supply faces a high risk of disruption. Manufacturers of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) want the metal. EV sales—and likewise, cobalt demand— could grow a lot more. Yet, cobalt may not remain critical for decades to come. EV buyers, battery manufacturers and miners fear the high prices and disrupted supply, as well as human right abuses, environmental destruction, corruption, and political risk. As with other critical minerals, industries are seeking to use less of the metal. The time available for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and other countries to benefit from mining the metal may be short-lived. Good governance is therefore important both for people in mining countries and for humanity to meet the Paris Climate Agreement. This report aims to help governments and their advisors in mining countries, such as the DRC, derive value from mining cobalt, develop industry along the battery-supply chains and address a host of problems from human rights abuses to corruption. The report is also for policy-makers working to ensure that the world delivers enough cobalt in time for the global energy transition.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Energy, Green Transition, and Cobalt
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

200. Triple Win: How Mining Can Benefit Africa’s Citizens, Their Environment and the Energy Transition

Author:: Papa Daouda Diene, David Manley, Silas Olan'g, and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Africa’s mineral wealth is essential for the energy transition and for the hundreds of millions of people currently living in poverty in African mining countries. Whether and how governments and companies move to further extract this mineral wealth is not only economically and environmentally important for Africa, but also for the vital importance of protecting the world’s rapidly diminishing forests. The world therefore needs a mining triple win: policies that can benefit Africa’s citizens, their environment, and the energy transition. These policies need to work for all if they are to work for any of them. But mining in Africa has been riddled with injustice. Humanity cannot afford to repeat the mistakes that have beset Africa’s mining in the past. To achieve a triple win, this time must be different. There are a whole host of policies available, and many ideas from experts. NRGI has brought these together and considered how they may work to truly achieve a triple win.
Topic:: Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Mining, Minerals, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa

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