Political Geography: Africa / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 25 Years

1001. African Union: Mbeki’s South Africa Policy for Africa

Author:: Luiza Bizzo Affonso and Vitor Ferreira Lengruber
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Marked by tragedies that reinforce stereotypes about itself, especially those that portray it as dependent on developed countries and unable to solve its own dilemmas, the African continent still presents itself in the 21st century with challenges related to hunger and humanitarian calamities, more recurrent in some regions than others. The initiatives to deal with theses issues arise right at the beginning of the second millennium primarily from South Africa. In this sense, it is possible to ask the following question: what political and economic measures were adopted by the African continent in order to combat these problems? Based on the bibliographic review of qualitative secondary sources relevant to the theme and on the analysis of primary sources, such as speeches and official documents of the Organization of African Unity, the purpose of this article is to demonstrate changes in the political and economic dynamics. Those changes were materialized in the different principles incorporated by the Organization of African Unity (1963) and the African Union (2001), the two main organizations for political, economic and social cooperation at the continental level, which took place in Africa at the beginning of the 21st century. The specific objective of this article is to present the change of guidelines, politically and economically, adopted by the African Union at the time of the transition to the new millennium and the role of South Africa, during the administration of Thabo Mbeki (1999-2008) during the process. The historical period being analysed, therefore, dates from the mid-1990s to the end of Mbeki’s presidential term in September 2008.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Brazil

1002. Elections and Democratic Deficits in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: A Commentary

Author:: Al-Chukwuma Okoli, Chigozie Joseph Nebeife, and Markus Arum Izang
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This study examines elections and democratic deficit in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The essence is to interrogate the seemingly ironic reversals of democratic tenets in the processes of politics and governance, even as the country democratizes. The paper contends that Nigeria’s experience with democracy has largely amounted to nominal civilianizing, in view of the fact that what is on course has not fulfilled minimal requirements of the democratic order
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1003. Trust in Political Power and Government Institutions in Mozambique: 2014-2018

Author:: Kátia Sara Henriques Xavier Zeca
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to understand voters’ confidence in the institutions of political power in Mozambique. The question that arises is what is the level of voter confidence in the institutions of political power? For the purposes of this research, the following political institutions were considered: Assembly of the Republic, National Election Commission (CNE, in Portuguese), Police, Army and Judicial Courts. Throughout the text, the CNE is emphasized because it is the institution responsible for managing the entire electoral process. And because the article is based around the issues of trust and democratization, some concepts will be discussed here that will support the conclusions presented: institutions, democratization, consolidated democracy.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

1004. The Dominance of Terrorism: Aspects of the Socio-Political Challenges in Post-Independence West AfricA: Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali

Author:: Osiomheyalo O. Idaewor
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The West African countries, namely, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali, all gained independence in 1960. Since the attainment of independence, these countries have continued to witness peculiar socio-political and economic challenges. These include the contemporary menace of terrorist groups such as the Boko Haram, ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province), and their local and international affiliates. These challenges had been precipitated by both local and external socio-political and economic dynamics in the sub-region. Apparently, the challenge of terrorism has intensified in a way that it has overshadowed and compounded existing challenges in West Africa in the contemporary period. [...] Placed in perspectives, this paper gives an overview of the linkage between the post-colonial and post-independence periods, thereby under-scoring the contemporary intensification of terrorism. It further examines the contributions of the UN, ECOWAS, MINUSMA, G5-Sahel and other interventionists’ initiatives towards the development of the sub-region. It concludes by proffering some prospects for development.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, Nigeria, Mali, and Burkina Faso

1005. Main Trends of Terrorism in Africa Towards 2025

Author:: Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The article is divided in: a methodological and theoretical framework to explain the prospective method used and some ideas about the discussion of terrorism and how to understand it. The second part of the paper focuses on the scenarios, taking into account the development of organizations such as: Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its related groups, Boko Haram (BH) in the area surrounding the Lake Chad, as well as Al-Shabaab (ALS) in southern Somalia and the border with Kenya. We finalized with a generalization of terrorism in Africa – conclusions – and the possible recommendation to solve this problem.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Terrorism, History, Violent Extremism, Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab, and Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sahel

1006. African Marxist Military Regimes, Rise and Fall: Internal Conditioners and International Dimensions

Author:: Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The historical dimension is used in a limited or selective way in the analysis of contemporary international relations, and it needs to be developed. Recovering the theme and the period from 1970-1980 means, therefore, both a historical and a theoretical matter. International Relations, as an area dominated by political science, has been a field of study marked by theorizations with little empirical basis and instrumental character. Without the State building, of ruling elites and social transformations promoted by revolutionary processes, the situation of Angola, Mozambique and Ethiopia, for example, would not have allowed their current international prominence.
Topic:: International Relations, Socialism/Marxism, Authoritarianism, and History
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Angola

1007. Brazil-Africa Relations: From the Slave Nexus to the Construction of Strategic Partnerships

Author:: Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: ontinent overcame rhetoric and gained new force with the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva government. The particular attention payed to these relations reflects an old aspiration of Brazil, that until then had not been pursued with determination. The historical bonds, the country’s large population of afro-descendants and the internal debate on racial equality, are elements in the Brazilian view regarding the need for rapprochement and cooperation. Even though Africa is a continent with alarming poverty indexes, it is not a stagnant one. The dynamism and development of “African” alternatives for its own problems define the stance of many of its leaderships.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Diplomacy, History, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Africa and Brazil

1008. The Gender-Based Violence as an Instrument of Warfare in Armed Conflicts

Author:: Collins G. Adeyanju
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The gender-based violence in recent times has become an integral part of the on-going Boko Haram Insurgency in North-East Nigeria. Since the full-scale declaration of combat between the Nigerian state and the insurgent group, the asymmetrical tactics of the group have been evolving, based on its capabilities. The recent spike in the targeted raid and attack on female schools, markets, and female institutions purposely for abduction and kidnapping of women and girls indicated this assertion. Due to the depletion of its fighters and loss of territories, there is a surge in mass deployment of ‘women and young girls’ as material instruments of warfare: fighters, suicide bombers, human shields, bargaining tools, sex slaves, informants, and so on. This article appraises the gender push-pull factors responsible, motivation behind the current behavior, and proffers some policy guidance.
Topic:: Women, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, Boko Haram, Abductions, Armed Conflict, and Suicide Bombing
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1009. Land Tenure Security, Credit Access and Agricultural Productivity in Cameroon

Author:: Tchinda Kamdem Eric Joel and Kamdem Cyrille Bergaly
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: Cameroonian farmers face two tenure systems: a modern regime and a customary regime. These two regimes are perpetually confronting each other, putting farmers in a total uncertainty as to the regime to adopt to ensure the sustainability of their ventures. This study aims to assess the influence of land tenure security on agricultural productivity through credit access. To achieve this goal, a two-stage sampling technique was applied to data from the third Cameroon Household Survey (ECAM 3). The number of farmers selected for the analysis was 602. These data were analysed using descriptive and three-step recursive regression models. The results of the analysis reveal that land tenure security improves agricultural productivity through the credit access it allows. A proof of the robustness of this result has been provided through discussion of the effects of land tenure security in different agro-ecological zones and through a distinction between cash crops and food crops. The overall results confirm that land tenure security positively and significantly influences agricultural productivity. The regression has also shown that the size of the farm defined in one way or another, the perception of farmers on their level of land tenure security and therefore indicates the intensity with which land tenure security influences agricultural productivity. The recorded productivity differential indicates that smallholder farmers, because they keep small farms, feel safer and produce more than those who keep medium-sized farms. The results also show that land tenure security significantly improves the value of production per hectare of food products that are globally imported into Cameroon. Therefore, we recommend that the public authorities promote land tenure security by reinforcing the unassailable and irrevocable nature of land title, but also by easing the conditions of access to it.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Economic structure, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1010. Political Instability, FDI and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Modelling Dynamic Simultaneous Equations

Author:: Lewis Landry Gakpa
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to examine the consequences of interaction between political instability and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth of 31 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in order to analyse one of the channels through which political instability affects economic growth. To achieve this objective, the study relies on a dynamic panel procedure and the Three Stage Least Squares Method to estimate a model of simultaneous equations over the period 1984-2015. The empirical results indicate that political instability affects economic growth directly and indirectly through its impact on foreign direct investment. We also highlight the simultaneous character of the relationship between political instability and the level of economic development in Sub-Saharan African countries. The results of the study then corroborate the idea that political instability hinders growth and thus calls for measures to improve the quality of political climate, which is one of the conditions necessary for a country’s economy to benefit from foreign direct investment.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Political stability, Economic Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, Angola, Namibia, and Botswana

1011. Twin Deficits Phenomenon in the West African Economic and Monetary Union Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Author:: Kouassi Yeboua
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: For a long time, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries have been experiencing persistently high budget and current deficits. This study was undertaken to empirically test the “Twin Deficits Hypothesis” in these countries. The analysis was conducted within the framework of the Panel Vector autoregressive (VAR) approach over the period 1975–2013. In contrast to the conventional view which claims a one-way relationship between budget and current account deficits, the results show that budget deficits lead to a deterioration in the current account balance, and vice versa (bilateral relationship). We also found that budget deficits have an impact on current account balance mainly through imports.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Budget, Economic Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

1012. Explaining Wellbeing and Inequality in Cameroon: A Regression-Based Decomposition

Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: This study sets out to estimate the determinants of household economic wellbeing and to evaluate the relative contributions of regressed-income sources in explaining measured inequality. In particular, a regression-based decomposition approach informed by the Shapley value, the instrumental variables econometric method, and the 2007 Cameroon household consumption survey, was used. This approach provides a flexible way to accommodate variables in a multivariate context. The results indicate that the household stock of education, age, credit, being bilingual, radio and electricity influence wellbeing positively, while rural, land and dependency had a negative impact on wellbeing. Results also show that rural, credit, bilingualism, education, age, dependency and land, in that order, are the main contributors to measured income inequality, meanwhile, the constant term, media and electricity are inequality reducing. These findings have policy implications for the ongoing drive to scale down both inequality and poverty in Cameroon.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Poverty, Inequality, Economic Inequality, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1013. The Impact of E-Wallet Fertilizer Subsidy Scheme and its Implication on Food Security in Nigeria

Author:: Reuben Adeolu Alabi and Oshobugie Ojor Adams
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: This study examined the impacts of the e-wallet fertilizer subsidy scheme on quantity of fertilizer use, crop output and yield in Nigeria. The study made use of the Nigeria General Household Survey (GHS)-Panel Datasets of 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 which contain 5,000 farming households in each of the panel. We applied relevant evaluation techniques to analyse the data. The results of the impact analysis demonstrate that the scheme has generally increased the yield, crop output and quantity of fertilizer purchase of the participating farmers by 38%, 47%, and 16%, respectively. The study concludes that increased productivity, which the scheme engenders, can help to reduce food insecurity in Nigeria. Provision of rural infrastructure, such as good road network, accessibility to mobile phones, radio, etc., will increase accessibility of the small-scale farmers to the scheme or any other similar agricultural schemes in Nigeria.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, and Rural
Political Geography:: Africa and Niger

1014. Determinants of Child Malnutrition in Mauritania

Author:: Yahya Abou Ly
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The empirical context of this research is in an environment where malnutrition is a real public health concern. The objective of this study was to identify the determinants of the nutritional state of children under the age of five years in Mauritania. Using data obtained from multiple indicators cluster surveys (MICS) in Mauritania in 2007 and 2015, we undertook fixed-effects clusters techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The empirical results demonstrate that the age and sex of a child, level of education of the mother, the standards of living of the household, the area of residence, the availability and use of health care services and access to drinking water are all important factors for the good health of children in Mauritania. These findings suggests improvements in nutritional health, for example, by education of girls until completion of secondary school; an improvement in the conditions of households that are headed by women and an expansion in the coverage rate of multi-purpose health centres.
Topic:: Health, Food, Children, Food Security, and Child Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa and Mauritania

1015. The Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Cameroon and Kenya

Author:: Dongue Ndongo Patrick Revelli
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: Understanding how domestic prices adjust to the exchange rate enables us to anticipate the effects on inflation and monetary policy responses. This study examines the extent of the exchange rate pass-through to the Consumer Price Index in Cameroon and Kenya over the 1991-2013 period. The results of its econometric analysis shows that the degree of the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete and varied between 0.18 and 0.58 over one year in Kenya, while it varied between 0.53 and 0.89 over the same period in Cameroon. For the long term, it was found to be equal to 1.06 in Kenya and to 0.28 in Cameroon. A structural VAR analysis using impulse-response functions supported the results for the short term but found a lower degree of pass-through for the exchange rate shocks: 0.3125 for Kenya and 0.4510 for Cameroon. It follows from these results that the exchange rate movements remain a potentially important source of inflation in the two countries. Variance decomposition shows that the contribution of the exchange rate shocks is modest in the case of Kenya but significant in that of Cameroon.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Economic Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, and Cameroon

1016. The Impact of Regulations on Investment in Mobile Telephone Infrastructure in Southern African Development Community Countries

Author:: Albert Makochekanwa
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The main objective of the study was to investigate the impact of policy regulations on investments in mobile telecommunications network infrastructure in all the 15 member countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The research employed panel data econometrics to achieve its stated objective. Estimated results shows that the coefficient of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is positive and statistically significant, implying that an increase in this variable results in increase in demand and this in turn motivates infrastructure investment in mobile telephone. The coefficient on the previous level of mobile telephone infrastructure investment variable (Invkt-1) was found to be positive and statistically significant. This means that there is a systematic positive association between the previous level of mobile telephone infrastructure investment and the current. The coefficient of the main variable of interest representing mandatory unbundling (Regkt) was found to be positive and statistically significant. This implies that, overall, mandatory unbundling access regulation boost infrastructure investment in mobile telecommunication. Regression estimates shows that the coefficient on one of the variable of interest, political constraint (POLCON) has a negative and statistically significant impact on determining the level of mobile telephone infrastructure investment in SADC countries. Whilst this result is against expectations, one possible explanation may be presence of high level of rent seeking behaviour.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Regulation, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

1017. Birth Order and Demand for Immunization for Children under the Age of Five in Cameroon

Author:: Negou Kamga Vincent de Paul and Nda’chi Deffo Rodrigue
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: Despite free basic vaccines administered by the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), there is still a fairly high death rate of children aged 0-5 worldwide due to vaccine-preventable diseases. Sub-Saharan Africa is the most affected region due to low levels of vaccination. This study analyses the effect of birth order on the immunization status of children in Cameroon, considering the contribution of cultural, economic and community factors. To do this, it uses data from the Demographic and Health Surveys of 1991, 1998, 2004 and 2011 produced by the National Institute of Statistics with the support of UNFPA, UNICEF, the World Bank and USAID. The EPI module was administered to 3,350, 2,317, 8,125 and 25,524 children under five in 1991, 1998, 2004 and 2011, respectively. The multinomial probit model makes it possible to find that birth order has a negative and highly significant effect on the full and timely immunization of children under five and the impact increases with birth order. Moreover, the impact of birth order increases after adjusting for cultural factors. This increase indicates that, beyond the effect of birth order, cultural factors are at the root of prejudices leading to the abandonment of children. Considering children under two years of age, and vaccines taken during the first four months, the corresponding birth order effect points to the benefits of routine immunization and response campaigns in promoting immunization of children under five.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Health Care Policy, and Children
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1018. Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa

Author:: Wendy Kessman and Tahila Pimental
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Other Foundation
Abstract:: The role that families play in advocating for the human rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) people in communities in southern Africa has not received as much attention as it deserves. Our new publication is called Roots, because of the powerful comments from some of the parents of LGBTI people that their LGBTI children are “from the same tree branch” as them, and because families enable LGBTI people to find an authentic “sense of belonging that is true to their roots.” The paper Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa, reports on the experiences of LGBTI people and their families in Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. It highlights the role that the involvement of parents and families can play in the advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in our region including suggestions on ways to empower families to promote LGBTI acceptance in their homes, communities, and countries. For LGBTI people, the family can be the first place of rejection and damaging homophobia, transphobia and interphobia. Yet families can also be the best form of love and support that an LGBTI person can receive. Even initially hostile family members can grow to accept their LGBTI children, grandchildren and siblings. It may take time, emotional labour, vulnerability and courage for parents and family to accept their LGBTI child, however once parents and the family accept a LGBTI child, wanting the state to do the same is a natural next step.
Topic:: Discrimination, LGBT+, Family, Parenting, Homophobia, Transphobia, and Interphobia
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, and Botswana

1019. The Role of China in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Beyond Economic Interests?

Author:: Katarzyna Sidlo
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: China is a relative newcomer to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Indeed, as it is not in China’s immediate neighbourhood, for a long time its importance to Beijing remained low. This began to change in the early 2000s. Due to its impressive economic expansion, marked by joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s energy consumption growth rate accelerated, making the energy-rich region increasingly crucial to China’s energy security. Thus, the destabilization that came to the MENA with the Global War on Terror declared by the United States as a result of the 9/11 terrorist attack, endangered its interests. At the same time, however, having significant Muslim minorities of its own, China was keen to maintain the security of its Muslim-majority provinces and used the GWOT as justification for curbing the threat of its internal, separatist “Islamic terrorism”. Eventually, then, to accommodate its growing interest in the region, China expanded its “greater neighbourhood” to include the MENA as well (currently, a good part of Europe has also been declared a part of it). Presently, while still not a key partner for Beijing, the region is one of the main suppliers of China’s gas and oil, an increasingly important export destination, a territory of continuous construction activity of Chinese companies under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and an object of a large-scale Chinese charm offensive. Slowly, it is becoming an object of Beijing’s security interests as well.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Influence
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, North Africa, and MENA

1020. Infrastructures and Power in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Silvia Clombo and Eduard Soler I Lecha
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Geopolitics is back. A more aggressive great power competition and the disruptive effects of new technologies have given new impetus to the analysis of the impact of geography on political decisions. Over the last decade, the Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have experienced profound and far-reaching social, political and economic transformations that have contributed to unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty. Some of these shifts have reshaped many of the traditional features of the geopolitical order in place in the region for decades, while others might have the potential to do so in the near future. Increased competition among regional actors but also new stakes by emerging global powers are redefining the contours of regional geopolitics and the way in which this region relates to broader global trends. Infrastructures is one of the areas where the effects of those global and regional dynamics are more visible and this is why a good grasp of the geopolitics of infrastructures can help us understand the broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and North Africa better. This is the main goal of this Joint Policy Study that ultimately aims to fill a gap in the scholarly work on the Mediterranean and the MENA region by delving into issues of geopolitical competition, conflict and cooperation from the point of view of the use of strategic infrastructures. This exercise continues and complements other collective endeavours, namely the MENARA project, which have sought to make sense of the acceleration of changes in the region since 2011 and have analysed them as a continuation of pre-existing trends and as part of larger transformations at a global scale. The geopolitical relevance of infrastructures is nothing new, as evidenced by the centuries-old competition for control of some strategic passageways such as the Strait of Gibraltar, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, the Strait of Hormuz, the Straits of Tiran or the Suez Canal. While acknowledging some constant features, our analysis also takes into consideration the impact of new trends at the global and regional levels. Moreover, while the study of infrastructures has been a key feature in classical geopolitics, there are aspects often associated with critical geopolitics – the geopolitics of cooperation and the relevance of actors other than states such as transnational corporations, cities or civil society groups to provide a few examples that stand at the core of our analytical approach to the topic.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

1021. Fragile States Index 2020

Author:: Fund for Peace
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Democracy, Fragile States, Brexit, COVID-19, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, South Asia, Sudan, Central Asia, Middle East, India, Uzbekistan, Libya, Colombia, South America, Lebanon, Mozambique, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, and Burkina Faso

1022. Building peace from the grassroots: Learning from women peacebuilders to advance the WPS agenda

Author:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:: To ensure that voices of local and national women peacebuilders are meaningfully included in the processes leading up to the 20th Anniversary of UNSCR 1325, the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders, in partnership with UN Women and the Government of Ireland, conducted a series of in-country consultations and follow-up interviews on WPS and Sustaining Peace with women from the civil society in Colombia, Northern Ireland, Uganda and South Africa.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Women, Peace, Grassroots Organizing, and Gender
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Europe, South Africa, Colombia, South America, and Northern Ireland

1023. From Optimism to Disillusionment: Examining Civil Society Perceptions of Police Vetting in Kenya

Author:: Daniel Blocq, Mary Mwikali, and Agatha Ndonga
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: In 2013, a police vetting process began in Kenya in response to the 2007-2008 post-election violence. Some reports suggested that the police had failed to stop that violence, others that the police had actively contributed to it. For decades, the police force had been notorious for its corruption, extrajudicial killings, and torture. This was the context in which a comprehensive police reform program was set up, one that included a vetting component and was led by the newly established National Police Service Commission (NPSC). The NPSC was mandated to screen every officer inside the Kenyan police. Civil society organizations (CSOs) initially expressed a great deal of optimism about the vetting plans. Indeed, political will for the process seemed to be present. The vetting of the judiciary, which had started shortly before the police vetting and was considered to be quite successful, also strengthened CSOs’ beliefs that serious and genuine police vetting was possible. Unfortunately, their optimism quickly turned to disillusionment and their confidence in the process crumbled. Six years after the commencement of the police vetting process, CSO representatives commonly agreed that it had failed. From Optimism to Disillusionment: Examining Civil Society Perceptions of Police Vetting in Kenya, the report from ICTJ and the Van Vollenhoven Institute at the Leiden Law School, offers an account of the police vetting process in Kenya. Drawing on interviews with CSO representatives, former NPSC commissioners, staff, and panelists, and victims of police violence, the report focuses specifically on the causes underlying civil society’s disillusionment. One of these causes was the outcome of the vetting. Out of the estimated 80,000 officers in service, the commission vetted only 5,993, of whom 445 were found unsuitable and dismissed. While the program did subject the very top police commanders to vetting, and the early hearings occurred in public, which was groundbreaking, in the end less than 7.5 percent of all police officers were subjected to vetting. But the more important cause may have been the process. The commission was certainly not simply engaged in a whitewashing exercise, and was at times, at least initially, quite committed to the vetting process. But the NPSC was also seen by civil society as a commission that, crucially, did not always take the CSOs seriously, culminating in a lack of responsiveness, sensitivity, and transparency on the commission’s part. While the commission’s approach seems to have also resulted at least partially from external pressures, it seriously hurt the overall assessment of the vetting exercise by the CSOs. The report is accompanied by two additional publications. The briefing paper Hearings and Decision Making During Transitional Vetting Processes: Insights from Kenya focuses on micro-level decision making within the commission, illustrating how a combination of factors—discretion, decision makers’ experience, and social tensions—can affect the outcomes, perceptions, and legitimacy of a vetting process. The policy brief Reflections and Recommendations for Transitional Vetting draws on the research conducted in Kenya to highlight the importance of strategy, coherence, information gathering, communication, expertise, and political and material support in vetting processes more generally.
Topic:: Civil Society, Reform, Institutions, Police, and Vetting
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

1024. Truth, Accountability, and Asset Recovery: How Transitional Justice Can Fight Corruption

Author:: Ruben Carranza
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: On March 2 and 3, 2020, two weeks before the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a COVID-19 global pandemic, transitional justice and anti-corruption policymakers, experts, and activists from the Gambia, Kenya, South Africa and Armenia met with their counterparts in Tunisia for a two-day conference entitled, “Truth, Accountability and Asset Recovery: How Transitional Justice Can Fight Corruption,” organized by ICTJ with the support of Tunisia’s National Anti-Corruption Commission (INLUCC) and the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany. This diverse group of leaders came together to share solutions to a common problem: How can countries emerging from dictatorship, war, or political transitions hold corrupt ex-rulers accountable, recover their ill-gotten assets, and ensure that those harmed the most by human rights violations and large-scale corruption can achieve justice, obtain reparations, and overcome marginalization? For many countries pursuing transitional justice, including those represented by participants in the conference, the health and economic impact of the pandemic has made it more urgent to find and design solutions that advance accountability for both human rights violations and corruption. In Kenya, for example, citizens questioned the government’s use of $12 million in COVID-19-related aid from the World Bank, “amid reports that the lockdown intended to curb the spread of the virus had worsened poverty, even forcing a mother to cook stones to make her eight children believe she was preparing food for them.” In Tunisia, INLUCC “identified 11 instances of suspected corruption and conflicts of interest” related to a government deal to acquire millions of facemasks. At the conference, participants brought up the role of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in enabling corruption during dictatorship or in facilitating state capture through privatization. Ninety-seven human rights and anti-corruption groups have jointly reminded the IMF, which has offered loans to pandemic-hit countries even as it continues to set austerity as a condition, that “transparency and accountability are key to making sure the money the IMF is disbursing actually goes to protecting lives and livelihoods.” This report gives an overview of the conference and its five panel discussions. It presents the thematic questions posed in each panel and summarizes the panelists’ statements and the comments and questions from moderators, other panelists, and participants in the audience. By design, the premise of the conference was clear: The practice by mainly global South countries of including accountability for corruption in their transitional justice processes has settled the debate over whether accountability for corruption should be part of transitional justice. In 2008, the Kenya Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission began investigating land-grabbing, large-scale corruption, and violations of economic and social rights. Soon after the Arab Spring in 2011-2012, Tunisia took the most significant steps when it established the Truth and Dignity Commission (TDC) with a mandate that covered violent political repression as well as corruption under former President Ben Ali. In its recently released final report, the commission examines the extent of the corruption and how the development policies and austerity measures imposed by international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF enabled it. In 2016, the post-dictatorship government in the Gambia created a truth commission to examine human rights violations as well as a separate commission of inquiry to investigate ex-dictator Yahya Jammeh’s corruption and identify his ill-gotten wealth. The latter commission is now considering using part of those assets to fund reparations. Although corruption was excluded from the mandate of South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission, activists in 2017 created the People’s Tribunal on Economic Crime that linked the continuity of post-apartheid corruption to the failure to address it in earlier transitional justice processes. In 2018, the South African government then created the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture to investigate specific economic crimes during and after apartheid. After the 2018 revolution in Armenia that ended a decade of authoritarian rule in the post-Soviet state, the new government embarked on prosecutions for corruption and human rights violations and is now considering a truth commission that would examine specific cases of corruption and human rights violations since 1991. These processes informed the conference, and the panelists who were directly involved in them discussed the challenges, successes, and lessons learned. This report’s original intent was to highlight the most important lessons from these experiences and promote South-South exchanges on transitional justice and accountability for corruption. However, the unprecedented global pandemic during which the conference took place has given it another equally relevant purpose. As ICTJ pointed out in a recent special report on COVID-19, “The pandemic is bringing to the surface underlying inequalities, including the unequal access to health care.” With this in mind, the author hopes this report will also offer policymakers practical approaches to transitional justice that can help address those underlying inequalities, such as measures aimed at improving access to health care for the most vulnerable, and initiatives to use recovered ill-gotten assets to fund reparations for victims.
Topic:: Corruption, Reform, Criminal Justice, Institutions, Reparations, COVID-19, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Kenya, Europe, Armenia, North Africa, Tunisia, Gambia, and Africa

1025. Building Blocks for Reparations: Providing Interim Relief to Victims Through Targeted Development Assistance

Author:: Sarah Kasande Kihika and Eva Kallweit
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: The armed conflict in Northern Uganda, stretching across more than two decades, greatly affected the populations of Northern Uganda, which suffered multiple forms of war crimes and gross abuses of human rights. Violations included forced displacement, pillaging, looting and destruction of property, abduction, forced recruitment, slavery, forced marriage, sexual violence, psychological harms, mutilation, killings, torture, and cruel, inhumane, and degrading treatment. These violations have had long-term social and economic consequences for victims, affecting and impairing their functionality, livelihoods, schooling, physical and mental health, social skills, self-esteem, and interpersonal relations in the post-conflict period, with differential impacts on men, women, boys, and girls. This study assesses the opportunities for providing interim relief to victims of conflict-related human rights violations through targeted development programs, pending the establishment of a comprehensive reparations program. Reparations are a response to gross human rights violations, meant to provide redress in its many forms, including compensation to victims. Development assistance differs from reparations in that it is aimed at improving the general socioeconomic conditions of citizens more broadly. This report acknowledges the distinctions between reparations and development, while exploring intersections between the two that could be optimized to address the urgent needs of victims of human rights violations. It identifies substantive and practical considerations that government authorities at the national and local levels should take into account when designing and implementing reconstruction and development programs, and it proposes ways to maximize the potential of ongoing programs to address the immediate needs of victims and mitigate the effects of the abuses they endured. Finally, the study explains how existing recovery and development programs could increase victims’ access, improve their implementation modalities, and address the various challenges and gaps that limit programs’ effectiveness. If they are appropriately designed, local recovery and reconstruction programs can form a foundation upon which reparative approaches can be based and built in the future.
Topic:: Human Rights, Reform, Transitional Justice, and Reparations
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

1026. Advancing Global Accountability: The Role of Universal Jurisdiction in Prosecuting International Crimes

Author:: Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: Recourse to universal jurisdiction as a justice mechanism for victims of international crimes has become increasingly popular in recent years. This is especially so given the small appetite for criminal accountability in countries where violations take place and the considerable shortfalls of the international justice system. Although universal jurisdiction faces serious challenges at the conceptual, legal, political, and practical levels, it often remains the only avenue for victims to pursue justice and address the “impunity gap.” This study considers the rationale for universal jurisdiction and describes the challenges and controversies it faces today. It explores similarities and differences between domestic laws that give effect to universal jurisdiction and considers the leading role played by nongovernmental organizations in generating such cases at the domestic level. In particular, the study focuses on the use of universal jurisdiction with respect to serious crimes committed in Syria and provides examples of cases brought before various domestic courts. It also explores the relationship between accountability initiatives for Syria at the international level. The future of universal jurisdiction as a viable mechanism of global justice is also considered. While this form of justice has made significant advances in recent years, it still faces considerable headwinds. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at entrenching universal jurisdiction as a globally recognized means of justice. The pursuit of universal jurisdiction has opened the door to the possibility of justice in contexts where it was previously thought impossible. A sufficiently high number of countries have introduced universal jurisdiction into their domestic systems. While there is no turning back, this approach to justice is far from generally accepted and has suffered setbacks. This is particularly the case at the political level, with the reach of universal jurisdiction being clawed back. Much work remains to be done to establish universal jurisdiction as a recognized and viable means of global justice.
Topic:: Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, Universal Jurisdiction, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, South Africa, and Syria

1027. Defeating Exclusion, Confronting Populism - Lessons from the Anti Apartheid Struggle

Author:: Ebrahim Rasool
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This keynote was part of the "Global Islamophobia in an Era of Populism" conference.
Topic:: Apartheid, Populism, Discrimination, Islamophobia, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

1028. A Question of Delivery

Author:: Ahmed Taher
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The success of Egyptian higher education depends on far more than reforming content and curricula. Cherry-picking the best from the American model is one place to start.
Topic:: Education, Reform, Higher Education, and Models
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

1029. A Surplus of Deficits

Author:: Amr Adly
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: From a political economy perspective, there are four key forces working against the peace and prosperity of Middle Eastern and North African states. To defeat them robust institutions are essential.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Economic Growth, Peace, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

1030. Enhancing Mediterranean Integration

Author:: Blanca Moreno-Dodson
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trade liberalization, human capital development, and sectoral reforms can bring Mediterranean countries closer together.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Reform, Human Capital, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1031. The Disrupting Stabilizer

Author:: Samuel Ramani
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: How Russia’s military, diplomatic, and economic roles in the Mediterranean have developed in recent years
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1032. Strategizing Toward Irrelevance in Libya

Author:: Alessia Melcangi
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The Libyan conflict is marred by competing interests, and is where the Mediterranean’s major players all hope to come out on top.
Topic:: Conflict, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

1033. Gas Finds for the People?

Author:: Jason Beckett
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Public international law—tied as it is to existent western-centric neo-colonial structures—will likely block the natural gas finds in the Eastern Mediterranean from benefiting regional states.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, International Law, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1034. The Prospects for Conflict or Cooperation

Author:: Henri J. Barkey and Ellen Laipson
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Will the Eastern Mediterranean natural gas discoveries lead to regional transformation?
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1035. Reluctant Power Europe

Author:: Kevin Koehler
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Will Europe’s approach of principled pragmatism toward the Mediterranean succeed in creating stability where previous approaches have failed?
Topic:: International Cooperation, European Union, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1036. Re-Engineering Regional Security

Author:: Sydney Wise
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In the last half-century, Egypt has had to negotiate its way through the Arab–Israeli peace process, regional nuclear proliferation, and domestic political transition. What has it taught us?
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

1037. Egypt’s Most Vulnerable and COVID-19

Author:: Elena Habersky
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Are refugees and asylum seekers protected by its strong domestic laws and international commitments?
Topic:: Refugees, Asylum, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

1038. Israel-Africa Relations: What Can We Learn from the Netanyahu Decade?

Author:: Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Since he came to power in 2009, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not made Israeli-African relations a priority in his foreign policy. After they broke off diplomatic relations with Israel following the Yom Kippur War in 1973, most African states – besides Malawi, South Africa (apart from between 1975 and 1979), Swaziland and Lesotho – finally resumed relations with the Jewish state during the 1980s and 1990s and more recently for some others. The resumption of diplomatic ties was gradual, as peace efforts were initiated regarding Palestine. Israel now enjoys diplomatic relations with more than 40 sub-Saharan African states, but only has 12 embassies throughout the entire continent, including in Cairo. The last ones to be opened were in Kigali (Rwanda) in 2019 and Accra (Ghana) in 2011. The Israeli government today views Africa either as a longstanding sphere of influence (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Uganda and for the last two decades Rwanda) that needs to be strengthened, or as a new sphere of influence to be developed (the Sahel countries, central Africa, etc.) These relations operate through various conventional channels, including some that have been significantly weakened by Benjamin Netanyahu when he was Israeli prime minister between 1996 and 1999 and since 2009. This is particularly true for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its counterpart, Mashav, responsible for development cooperation. However, the security and intelligence sectors (Mossad), controlled by the Prime Minister’s Office, are strong drivers of Israeli foreign policy, hence Benjamin Netanyahu’s dominance over foreign affairs in general, and Africa in particular. The objective of this paper is to explain how political, economic and security relationships between Africa and Israel have developed in practice during the decade 2009-2020. The aim here is to go beyond a mere account of the history of these relationships. Since 2009, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – still in power at the time of writing – has frequently talked about his country’s return to the African stage, without necessarily providing his government with the financial resources to achieve this.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Israel

1039. African agency in the new Cold War: Traditional power competition in the post-COVID-19 African landscape

Author:: Bronwyn Bruton
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War, a handful of powers have been able to exert influence across the whole of the African continent: the United States, China, the European Union (EU), and India. These external powers have rarely competed directly against each other, as they have exercised influence in well-defined, separate spheres: The United States has held the soft power advantage for its aid and security assistance; China in infrastructure and increasing trade; India in the mercantilist activities of its diaspora; and Europe as an ally of the United States focused on countering irregular migration. The resource-scarce post-COVID environment will accelerate competition between these powers and lead them into intersecting spheres of influence. Even with an incoming Joseph Biden administration, the United States is set for declining influence on the continent, creating a vacuum for Europe and China to either willingly or begrudgingly fill. Budget constraints on aid and defense, complemented by a shifting strategic emphasis toward great power competition, will lead the United States to scale down its security and development assistance in nonstrategic nations, instead urging American businesses to compete head on with Chinese firms in the marketplace. China, in turn, will be faced with an opportunity to ramp up its security assistance and will try to forge a new soft power advantage. This will be meant to overcome growing reputational concerns over debt relief and as a means to maintain the support of the African voting bloc in the United Nations as China faces enhanced global scrutiny. Europe may diverge more from the United States as it, too, is forced to carry a greater counterterrorism burden and seeks to combat a new surge of irregular migration, possibly nudging NATO to expand its footprint as well. And India will emerge from COVID-19 with a compelling value proposition for African nations seeking new economic partnerships. Some African nations will find themselves in the crosshairs of a new Cold War mentality that could threaten regionalization and the blooming ethos of pan-Africanism. Key countries that will be implicated include Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Their pursuit of bilateral versus pan-African interests will be decisive in setting the continent’s trajectory—toward a new African Century, or another period of thwarted ambitions. This paper explores the shifting roles of Africa’s traditional external powers: China, the United States, the EU, and India. Section 1 introduces the evolving postures and colliding interests of these powers. Section 2 maps out the competitive post-COVID landscape and outlines economic and security flashpoints. Finally, Section 3 identifies opportunities for African nations to pursue their own ambitions while resisting the imposition of a new Cold War–style competition on the continent.
Topic:: Cold War, Strategic Competition, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

1040. The Future of Migration to Europe

Author:: Matteo Villa
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Even as migration pressure at the Greek border is on the rise, the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past. Yet, EU countries still struggle to come up with solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways. Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror. This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practices to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Regional Integration, and Borders
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

1041. Quest for Growth and Resilience in the Face of Mounting Economic Headwinds

Author:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: Zambia has experienced weakening macroeconomic conditions in the past 10 years, with falling real GDP and per capita GDP growth, a depreciating kwacha and rising inflation… Against this backdrop, the 2021 National Budget is themed: “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable”. Many sub-functional big winners are expected in 2021 in terms of allocation increases (e.g. FISP, Voter Registration and Social Cash Transfer), and some critical losers are also expected, particularly Empowerment Funds.
Topic:: Budget, GDP, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

1042. A Review of the Performance of the 2020 National Budget

Author:: Mbewe Kalikeka
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: This briefing note provides a review of the performance of the 2020 National Budget. It also provides contexts of the macroeconomic fundamentals with bearing on the revenue and expenditure trends. The brief is based on an analysis of the fiscal tables of Government; it compares the 2020 approved budget allocations with the preliminary outturns for 2020, as well as the preliminary and actual outturns for 2019. The layout of this brief is as follows: Section 2 gives a brief overview of the macroeconomic performance in 2020. Section 3 and Section 4 shed light on the revenue and expenditure performance respectively. Section 5 concludes the brief and provides recommendations.
Topic:: Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

1043. Recalibrating US-Africa Policy

Author:: James Barnett
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: For better or worse, US-Africa policy will not be an urgent priority for the Biden-Harris administration when it takes office in January. Domestic challenges, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and attendant economic crisis, will dominate the administration’s focus from day one. In the realm of foreign affairs, issues ranging from transatlantic relations to East Asian security are likely to command the attention of administration officials during its first months in office. Nevertheless, the day-to-day demands of the executive branch should hopefully not distract the new administration from the many challenges and opportunities Africa presents to US foreign policy. Some of these challenges are already being discussed in Washington, at least in broad terms. China’s continued efforts to build influence across Africa and the expansion of Salafi-jihadi insurgencies in various parts of the continent have been on the radar of US policymakers for several years. However, an exclusive focus on easily identifiable enemies and competitors misses the situation’s big picture and carries significant risks. Many of the impediments to US foreign policy in Africa are rooted in larger structural and ideological issues that Washington has little ability to affect in the short-term. Similarly, a black-and-white view of international politics elides the many ways external interventions impact Africa. For example, several of Washington’s Middle Eastern partners have waged proxy conflicts in East Africa that are detrimental to regional stability and, by extension, US interests. A better approach to US-Africa relations must begin, first and foremost, with a deeper understanding of the continent’s complex politics and its role within the wider international system.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and United States of America

1044. Exploring Women’s Participation in Political Life in Tunisia With a Focus on the 2019 Elections

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: This report details the research methodology and approach in assessing the status of women and barriers to their participation in various aspects of the electoral process and as stakeholders. It presents key findings and offers recommendations to all stakeholders to increase women’s full political participation in future elections.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Democracy, Transition, Equality, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

1045. All That Glitters is Not Gold: Turmoil in Zimbabwe’s Mining Sector

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In 2019, killings by machete-wielding gangs at Zimbabwe’s gold mines jogged the government into preventive action. But police sweeps alone cannot make the sector safe. Harare should adopt reforms that allow more citizens to mine legally and head off disputes over the country’s mineral wealth.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Inequality, Mining, Organized Crime, and Wealth
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

1046. Easing Cameroon’s Ethno-political Tensions, On and Offline

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Two years after Cameroon’s contested presidential election, political rivalry has taken a worrying direction as the incumbent’s supporters trade ethnic slurs with backers of his main challenger. The government should undertake electoral reforms, bar discrimination and work with social media platforms to curtail hate speech.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Social Media, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1047. Socio-economic implications of Covid-19 in Cameroon and proposals to reduce the economic fallout

Author:: Henri Kouam and Dr. Fuein Vera Kum
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The economic impact of COVID-19 will be broad-based, causing wages to fall due to social distancing and quarantine measures on the service sector. While communications and ICT-related sectors will be less affected, transport, entertainment and leisure sectors will be adversely affected, together with exports and domestic demand. Policymakers should utilise the $164 billion availed by international institutions to support SMEs and wages in the informal sector, whilst the 90 billion should be used in other to invest in the physical and digital infrastructure to support educational outcomes and employment over the medium term. Such actionable policies should accompany broader quarantine and social distancing measures.
Topic:: Economics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1048. Report On The Effects Of BEAC’s Monetary Policy In Cameroon

Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: With an estimated population of about 26,709,663 in 2020, Cameroon is a Central African country bordering Nigeria, Chad, Central African Republic (CAR), Republic of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Gulf of Guinea. The country has 10 Regions, 58 Divisions and is populated by 283 ethnic groups. Because of its great climatological, mining, geographical, cultural, and human diversity, Cameroon is described as Africa in miniature. The economy of Cameroon accounts for more than 40% of CEMAC’s GDP and is the most diversified in the region. It is essentially based on the exploitation of various export products – oil, tropical woods, Arabica and Robusta coffee, cocoa, rubber, cotton, bananas, aluminum, palm oil, etc. Oil revenues represent, on an annual average, about 12% of the country’s total revenues (LFR, 2020). However, since 2009, the country has been facing a major security crisis caused by incursions by the Boko Haram terrorist sect in the Far North. They have also been facing socio-political unrest in the English-speaking regions of the North West and South West, whose security situation has deteriorated since the end of 2016. The situation remains volatile in these regions despite the holding of the first-ever regional elections. After a deceleration phase following the 2014 commodity crisis, growth in the economy of Cameroon slightly strengthened in 2018 (4.1 percent compared to 3.5 percent in 2017) before decreasing in 2019 (3.7 percent).
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1049. The Terrorist Threat Assessment 2020

Author:: Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Islamic State (IS) centric threat has spread to Africa and Asia. In Sub Saharan Africa, the threat is growing in the Sahel and, in Asia, the threat is growing in South Asia. The IS influence in Africa is growing, with attacks in Congo, Mozambique, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Somalia. The IS suffered very serious setbacks in Iraq and Syria throughout 2019 but expanded to other parts of the Middle East, Africa and Asia. All indications are that Afghanistan is likely to emerge as an alternative IS headquarters. Regarding the relations between al Qaeda and IS, the two movements, that are ideological akin, are likely to merge if not work together at least in some theatres. If so, the global threat to governments and communities will increase exponentially.
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, Al Qaeda, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, and Asia

1050. Constraints to Enhanced Revenue Mobilization and Spending Quality in Kenya

Author:: Nelson H.W. Wawire
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This study addresses constraints to enhanced revenue mobilization and spending quality in Kenya. The structure and growth of Kenya’s economy and spending quality have a bearing on its taxable capacity. Constraints to enhancement of revenue mobilization and spending quality include the existence of a large informal sector; inadequate information on property ownership; perceived corruption; inefficient use of public resources; political interference; volatile election cycles; abuse of tax incentives; uneven transfer pricing; illicit financial flows; and untaxed online businesses, coupled with poor administrative capacity and tax policy design. Policy implications on revenue performance are (1) the National Treasury and Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) should focus on property taxes and capital gains taxes to expand the tax base; (2) development partners are needed to direct technical assistance to the informal sector, to aid with transfer pricing, to monitor illicit financial flows, and to properly tax online businesses; (3) greater use of technology is needed to increase efficiency; (4) intervention by the Geospatial Information System is needed to link data on land and property ownership with tax information in the existing database; (5) a pay-for-results model needs to be deployed; (6) need to reduce tax expenditures; and policy reforms to be initiated in the agricultural sector. The policy implications on expenditure are (1) the need for efficient utilization of tax revenues; (2) the need for implementation of digital technologies; (3) the need to revisit an integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) configuration; (4) the need to adhere to long-term planning; and (5) adoption of the GFS 2014 reporting standard. Overall, an independent entity needs to be established that will set budget ceilings, monitor budget implementation, and carry out audits.
Topic:: Governance, Revenue Management, Public Spending, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

1051. Senegal: Making Domestic Resource Mobilization Work to Sustain Growth and Improve Service Delivery

Author:: Birahim Bouna Niang and Ahmadoi Aly Mbaye
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Senegal’s recent economic performance is impressive. For the first time, Senegal has achieved a GDP growth rate of more than 6 percent for three consecutive years (2015–2017), and per capita GDP has increased at an annual average of 4.1 percent. In parallel, progress in fiscal revenues has been recorded, with the ratio of average revenues to GDP increasing by 5.7 percentage points between 2000-2002 and 2014-2017, placing Senegal above the regional average of 15 percent. Notwithstanding, the performance of the Senegalese tax system is limited by the country’s narrow tax base, largely attributable to a sizable informal sector. Despite accounting for more than half of GDP, Senegal’s informal sector makes up less than 3 percent of total tax collection. Revenue collection is also limited by the fast-growing array of exemptions, and by tax expenditures. These special dispensations mainly went to multinationals with local branches in Senegal. Tax expenditure more than doubled between 2010 and 2014, from18.4 percent of tax revenues and 3.4 percent of GDP to 40 percent of tax revenues and 7.8 percent of GDP. According to some estimates, the cumulative costs are close to 18 percent of annual GDP. Other factors deterring effective domestic resource mobilization include poor governance and the limited technical capacity of the tax administration, failures of the information system, and weak system transparency. Expenditures are often ineffective, particularly in the education and health sectors. Improving the state of public finances requires reforms to strengthen technical and institutional capacities and to adapt the management framework in view of Senegal’s entry into the hydrocarbon era. This might include setting up a public finance monitoring committee, adopting new budgetary rules consistent with those set by the West African Economic and Monetary Union, building relevant tax administration capacities. On the expenditure front, actions are needed to improve the targeting of support programs for vulnerable groups, and to implement capacity-building programs for government officials in charge of project evaluation, including in the Planning Directorate and in technical ministries. Lastly, a systematic ex ante and ex post evaluation of public investments is needed.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Services, Mobilization, and Domestic Work
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

1052. A Post-Brexit Trade Policy for Development and a More Integrated Africa

Author:: Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The United Kingdom will confirm its departure from the European Union on 31st January 2020. As part of its independent trade policy, the government has committed to improve access to UK mar- kets for the poorest countries. This note sets out three ways it can do so: expanding duty-free market access while avoiding piecemeal trade agreements that undermine Africa’s own trade integration ef- forts; using an alternative framework for those trade agreements it does negotiate with developing countries; and supporting a “back-to-basics” multilateral negotiation at the World Trade Organiza- tion that could help to rebuild confidence in that institution and thus protect the interests of small and vulnerable countries. After a brief review of the background and context, it sets out specific pro- posals in each of these areas.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe

1053. Implementing the Mop Barrier Assessment Methodology With the Zambia Police Service

Author:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: In the context of the Canadian-led Elsie Initiative aiming to reduce barriers for uniformed women in UN Peace Operations, DCAF has developed the Measuring Opportunities for Women in Peace Operations (MOWIP) methodology, in partnership with Cornell University and research institutions in eight troop- and police contributing countries across the world. The MOWIP methodology aims to provide institutions with the evidence base necessary to design effective interventions which substantially increase the number of women who deploy. While it is currently being piloted in 7 other countries, the MOWIP methodology was successfully implemented in Zambia with the Zambia Police Service (ZPS) between May 2019 and March 2020, in partnership with the Southern African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (SACCORD). This resource highlights the key takeaways from the process of implementing the MOWIP methodology in Zambia along with good practices and lessons learned at each stage, including the preparation phase, the data collection phase, the data analysis phase and the validation phase. It aims to provide guidance to TPCCs or security institutions interested in implementing the MOWIP methodology themselves regarding the resources and time commitment required, and outlines the outcomes and benefits of undergoing the Barrier Assessment for the ZPS.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Police, and Models
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

1054. Applying Human Rights Principles to the Liberian Security Sector

Author:: Jean Conte and Aloysius Toe
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Comprehensive and practical, these guidelines are designed to support Liberian lawmakers in applying human rights principles to their work in security sector reform and governance. In their capacity as the peoples’ representatives, parliamentarians have a critical role to play in promoting respect for human rights. This is even more relevant in Liberia, where security institutions are often reported as the most prominent violators of human rights, notably among vulnerable groups, such as women and LGBTI persons. Therefore, it is essential to reassert that respect for human rights is an obligation deriving from both international instruments and the Liberian Constitution, and to strengthen the security sector’s compliance with these legally binding instruments. Through their core functions of oversight, law-making and representation, Liberian legislators possess an array of tools to help them achieve this objective. However, their lack of basic human rights knowledge and key reform and governance concepts hampers their effective use of these tools. These guidelines aim to bridge this knowledge gap and suggest concrete steps to help Liberian Legislators succeed in this endeavour. Following a brief discussion on why Liberian lawmakers must actively promote respect for human rights in the security sector (Chapter 1), these guidelines lay out what the main international human rights standards and instruments are (Chapters 2 and 3), and make suggestions on how legislators can integrate them in their daily practice (Chapter 4).
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Governance, Legislation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Liberia

1055. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:

Author:: Emadeddin Badi
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

1056. Between Nation-Building and Contestation for Power: The Place of Party Politics in Nigeria, 1923-2019

Author:: Adetunji Ojo Ogunyemi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: By May 29, 2019, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic and democracy had achieved an unprecedented 20 unbroken years of active partisan politics and representative democracy. The First Republic had lasted barely three years (1963-1966); the Second Republic and its democratic institutions lasted just four years (1979-1983) while the Third Republic (19921993) could barely hold its head for one year. Hence, by mid-2019, not many analysts have congratulated Nigeria for its longest democratic experience since its independence from Britain in 1960, but hardly did any of them identify the core reasons for such a sustained rule of democratic ethos for two decades. In this paper, we show the origin and practice of political parties in Nigeria. We argue that the country had succeeded in its Fourth Republic as a democratic country because its law and constitution together with the political culture of the people had permitted multiparty democracy by which governments had been formed, political inclusion and popular participation ensured, and public policies initiated. We also present an analysis of party politicking in the country from its beginning in 1923 and conclude that Nigeria has achieved meaningful and sustainable dividends of democracy in her Fourth Republic because of a maturing culture of partisan politics.
Topic:: Nationalism, State Building, Party System, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1057. Campaigns and Electioneering: Reflecting on the 2015 General Elections in Nigeria

Author:: Emmanuel Osewe Akubor
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Historically, campaigns are recognized as a vital part of electioneering since it contains the ideas that the candidate wants to share with the voters, especially regarding policy issues and the administration’s focus. It aims to get those who agree with their ideas to support them when running for a political position. The message often consists of several talking points about policy issues. However, a study of Nigeria’s situation, with specific reference to the 2015 Campaigns and Electioneering, revealed that the main content of campaigns was hate speeches. Therefore, this paper seeks to bring out the main issues of campaigns in Nigeria’s electoral system and why it has often led to electoral violence over the years. The qualitative method is used for this particular research. Data obtained from primary and secondary sources were deployed to carry out the study with an analytical and narrative historical approach. It includes historical, descriptive, and analytical approaches based on gathered evidence. This research’s primary source is based on field investigations conducted in the Nigerian area and surrounding territories. Among other things, the data collection process includes semi-structured interviews with selected individuals. The research also uses historical documents from the national archives, relying on previous research conducted on society, administrative development, and documentary data taken from newspaper accounts, diaries, letters, and verbal reports. This research’s position is that campaigns over the years in Nigeria, unlike what is obtainable in some parts of the world where policy issues form the backbone of campaign message have basically on persons, character assassination, violence, and abusive (hate) speeches. The paper argues that this campaign strategy often leads to electoral violence before, during, and after elections. The paper, therefore, concludes that only issue-based campaigns can guarantee peaceful and credible elections in Nigeria.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

1058. Worsening Women Trafficking, Multidimensional Poverty and Gender Inequality: The Vulnerabilities, Playouts and Governmental Responses in West Africa

Author:: Tunde Abioro and Omolara Akinyemi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Modern governments in modern states in third world countries are overwhelmed with social circumstances that have forced citizens to resort to self-help. Also, prevalent unclear demographic and globalization issues are sometimes neutral lines of justification for either transit or destination posture of the West African states. Concisely, poverty issues have continuously permeated the West Africa region’s fabric, and the challenges seem protracting. It has implications for mobility, (women) trafficking, and human security, among others. The quantitative approach adopted profiled index while evaluating and descriptive methods explained the content. Among other findings, lack of national data and proper immigration service is obvious. Thus, adequate data for national planning is recommended. Further, ongoing regional and national initiatives for possible integration and collaboration to address challenges are advocated.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Poverty, Sex Trafficking, Governance, Inequality, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

1059. Africa and the Middle East: Beyond the Divides

Author:: Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Nisrin El-Amin, Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, Noah Salomon, Samar Al-Bulushi, Wolfram Lacher, Federico Donelli, Lina Benabdallah, Ezgi Guner, Afifa Ltifi, Zekeria Ould Ahmed Salem, Alex Thurston, and Alex de Waal
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: The papers, published in this collection, ranged widely over issues connecting West Africa, the Horn, the Sahel and North Africa thematically, politically, militarily and culturally. The goal of this volume is to get American political science to break down the barriers between academic subfields defined by regions and open the fields to new questions raised by scholars from and across Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:: Islam, War, Regime Change, Media, Conflict, Political Science, Revolution, and Capital
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Sudan, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, West Africa, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, East Africa, Sahel, and Horn of Africa

1060. Political Vigilante Groups in Ghana's Democratic Governance: Some Policy Options

Author:: Justice Richard Kwabena Owusu Kyei
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief explores the activities of political vigilante groups in Ghana in relation to the Vigilantism and Related Offenses Law, 2019. It notes that contrary to the widespread perception of political vigilante groups as violent political actors, they contribute to Ghana’s stability and democratic peace. It therefore comes up with recommendations for inte- grating them into Ghana’s political and democratic architecture. Political vigilantism1 in Ghana dates back to the struggle for indepen- dence and the First Republic. The earliest of such groups, the Veranda Boys, was formed by Osagyefo Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s first prime minister and president. Political vigilante groups2 have featured in Ghana’s Four Republics (1960-1966; 1969-1972; 1979-1981 and 1993-Present). However, due to the short-lived nature of the first three Republics, their impact on the governance system could not be fully examined. Since the Fourth Republic has endured for over two decades, its longevity has provided adequate time for political vigilante groups to evolve and sit- uate themselves firmly in the political process. In the Fourth Republic these groups have coalesced around the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National Democratic Congress (NDC). This policy brief argues that political vigilante groups cannot be branded only as violent and disruptive groups and disbanded on that basis. Rather they should be recognized as political actors with certain interests that are compatible with democratic gover- nance in Ghana. Their activities are pertinent to the enhancement of peace and democratic growth espe- cially at the local government level.
Topic:: Political Activism, Political stability, Peace, Independence, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

1061. Promoting Reconciliation Among Post-genocide Second Generation Rwandans

Author:: Marie Grace Kagoyire
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: More than two decades after the genocide in Rwanda, the trauma is still haunt- ing some families and being transmitted from survivor parents to the next gen- eration. Within this time period, there have been interventions addressing the mental health needs of those traumatized by the genocide. Policies aimed at promoting reconciliation, while reducing tensions among former enemies to prevent future collective violence among citizens have also been implemented.1 This policy brief is based on the findings of a research project conducted in eastern Rwanda between July and November 2019. It involved interviews with genocide survivors who are now parents, descendants of genocide survivors aged between 18-25 years old, and staff from psycho-social and peacebuild- ing organizations. The study explored intergenerational trauma transmission from genocide survivor parents to their descendants born after the 1994 geno- cide and its implications for reconciliation.
Topic:: Genocide, Trauma, Reconciliation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

1062. Deployment of Soldiers to Communities experiencing Gang Violence in South Africa: Policy Perspectives

Author:: Godfrey Maringira and Diana Gibson
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The point of departure of this policy brief is the failure by the police to effec- tively deal with gang-related violence in the Western Cape and the deploy- ment of soldiers to the affected communities. It examines challenges linked to the deployment of soldiers in response to spiralling levels of urban violence and crime, which should normally fall within the purview of the police. The brief identifies the challenge of perception in black townships where soldiers are viewed as ‘strangers’ or outsiders, particularly by community leaders who are more knowledgeable and experienced in dealing with gang-related violence. Data collected during fieldwork in black townships point to the limitations of the military approach. In this regard, a case is made to the government to direct more resources towards community and non-governmental structures for combating gang-related violence. While we do not seek to over-romanticize the capacity of grassroots and non-governmental structures, there is sufficient evidence that the government and the police can tap into local knowledge, provide resources, and build capacities to effectively address gang-related violence. Community based and non-governmental organizations, which are active at the grassroots level, are often well placed to assist with social and economic interventions that can ameliorate circumstances which contribute to gang violence.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Violence, Local, and Gangs
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

1063. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa

Author:: Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
Topic:: Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

1064. Conflict and Cooperation in the Eastern Nile: The Role of Business

Author:: Rawia Tawfik
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The discussion of the role of business in resource-based conflicts in Afri- ca in general and the Nile basin in particular, has been dominated by two approaches. The first approach emphasizes the role of business in exacer- bating domestic and transboundary conflicts by engaging in land and wa- ter grabs.1 In the Nile basin, large-scale land acquisitions by foreign cor- porations have often been considered as a means of exploiting land and water resources, and a factor that increases uncertainty and complexity in hydropolitical relations in the basin.2 This investigation of foreign invest- ments can be linked to a broader literature on promoting good governance of natural resources. This literature focuses on increasing transparency and accountability of all stakeholders, including non-state actors involved in the use of natural resources and ensuring the sustainable management of these resources.3 In contrast, the second approach, which focuses more on transboundary business cooperation, argues that economic cooperation, not only between state actors, but also between corporations could de-escalate conflicts over shared water resources. According to this approach, the private sector can act as ‘an agent of change’ by creating shared interests across borders and engaging in confidence-building activities.4 International organizations and funding institutions have supported multi-stakeholder forums to strength- en transnational cooperation between non-state actors and pushed for public-private partnerships to implement projects at transboundary levels.5 In the Nile basin, inter-riparian investments have been suggested as a po- tential means of reducing tensions through trading virtual water (i.e. the volume of water used in the production of commodities, goods, or services) from water-rich upstream countries, especially Ethiopia to water-scarce downstream countries, especially Egypt.6 It has been suggested that the more Egypt invests in upstream countries (and Sudan) for domestic agri- cultural production, the less likely it would resort to military means against these countries to secure access to the Nile waters to feed its own popula- tion. This assumption indicates that while inter-riparian investments may increase conflict within receiving countries, it may reduce conflicts between these countries.7 This paper contributes to this debate by examining the actual roles played by Egyptian businesses in the hydro-political and hydro-economic relations between the three Eastern Nile countries and the factors that affect these roles. It argues that the two approaches criticizing business's contribution to conflict or applauding its contribution to cooperation have not adequately captured the complexity and variety of roles played by business. It also does not adequately summarize the possible contradictory impacts of these roles on conflict and cooperation between riparian states. These approaches also downplay the impact of state-business relations and of the basin context, especially the history of hydro-political relations, on these roles. The paper will also address four main questions: what are the motivations of Egyptian businesses investing in Ethiopia and Sudan? To what extent do tensions over the utilization of the Nile waters factor into risk assessment of investments in the two countries? What roles do Egyptian public and pri- vate corporations play in promoting economic cooperation and reducing the potential of conflict, or increasing tensions between Egypt on the one hand, and Ethiopia and Sudan on the other hand? What factors affect these roles and how? And how can the business community better contribute to reduc- ing tensions over the utilization of water resources and promoting wider economic cooperation between Eastern Nile countries?
Topic:: Privatization, Water, Business, Conflict, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

1065. ECOWAS Mediation in Togo's 2017/2018 Political Crisis: Feats, Deadlocks, and Lessons

Author:: Brown Odigie
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: On August 18, 2017, opposition1 figures in the Republic of Togo, a member-state of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), took to the streets to protest the continued rule of Faure Gnassingbé, the incum- bent president of the country who has spent 14 years in power. They demand- ed constitutional reforms, and in particular, a return to the 1992 constitu- tion, which would, bring back a constitutional provision limiting presidential tenure to two-terms of five years only. Other reforms demanded included a demand for a two-round system2 for presidential elections, reform of elec- toral laws and the election management body, review of the voters’ register, as well as voting rights for Togolese nationals in the diaspora. In a quick progression of events, the protesters made additional demands including one for an immediate end3 to the regime of Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has been accused of institutionalizing dynastic rule starting with his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who ruled the country from 1967 till his death in of- fice on February 5, 2005. For several months, on regular intervals, leaders of the opposition and civil society groups mobilized different social groups including youths and women to continue to make these demands on the government. occasionally in violent demonstrations that led to public disor- der, looting ofOccasionally these protests degenerated into violent demon- strations that led to public disorder, looting of private and public goods, and loss of lives. The initial reaction of the government was to crack down on the protesters, using state apparatuses of force to shut down the internet, which was crucial for mobilization, arresting4 a number of activists on the streets of Lomé, the country's capital. The protests, however, continued as protesters were undeterred,5 and soon spread to the country’s second larg- est city of Sokodé in the central region. Following persistent demonstra- tions and calls by the international community, notably, ECOWAS, France, the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the African Union Commission (AUC) for an immediate dialogue in resolving the impasses, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé finally accepted to dialogue and negotiate with the opposition. Leveraging on a preventive diplomacy conceptual framework of analysis, this paper highlights the nuances and the herculean task of mediating po- litical conflicts by regional organizations such as ECOWAS. It does so es- pecially in relation to preventing protests from escalating into violent con- flict, navigating deadlocks, and achieving concessions on important political and constitutional matters that might alter the existing power equation. It analyses the spate of criticism that trailed ECOWAS’ mediation of the cri- sis during a period the Togolese president, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé, was the Chair of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS (June 2017 to July 2018) as well as the efforts to maintain impartiality by the Fa- cilitators appointed by ECOWAS to assist the government and opposition stakeholders to negotiate a political settlement and implement constitu- tional reforms. The paper also raises questions about the rationality of the decision of the coalition of fourteen opposition parties (C14) to boycott the December 20, 2018 legislative elections, noting that the election boycott hardly achieved its intended purpose of delegitimizing the government. It, however, com- mends the ability of the opposition to learn key lessons from the boycott, and emphasizes the imperative for both the government and the opposition parties to continue exploring avenues for inclusive dialogue in addressing unresolved contentious issues, not only with respect to the immediate 2020 presidential elections, but more importantly, efforts at expanding the polit- ical and civic space and strengthening the role of civil society organizations in democratic processes in the country. The paper concludes by extolling the steadiness and the resilience of West African citizens in demanding for, and, or defending constitutional provisions that limit presidential tenures. It also notes that such vigilance and resilience are needed if democratic cul- ture and good governance are to be deepened in the region.
Topic:: Civil Society, Diplomacy, Governance, Peace, Mediation, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Togo

1066. Higher Education as a Pathway toward Peace in Burkina Faso: New Policy Perspectives

Author:: Dagan Rossini and Felicity Burgess
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Higher education plays an important role in promoting inclusive democracies and driving social and economic change. Many African universities, however, face key structural challenges including limited Internet, outdated curricula, overburdened faculty, and archaic infrastructure. These systemic issues have been exacerbated by rising enrollment rates in the wake of global pressures to expand access and ensure quality of education for all. As governments and multilateral institutions look to capitalize on the continent’s demographic dividend, it is important to rethink, revitalize, and restructure African university systems, particularly in (post-)conflict settings. This policy brief is based on a report prepared for the Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research, and Innovation in Burkina Faso. It identifies a mismatch between the supply of skilled graduates and labor market demands, bearing in mind Burkina Faso’s ambition to become one of three main knowl- edge hubs in West Africa and the ongoing crisis in the Sahel region. Research was conducted between September 2019 and April 2020 and included three weeks of qualitative research in the capital city, Ouagadougou, involving focus groups and semi-structured interviews with 67 individuals. Findings suggest that increased collaboration between the education and economic sectors will enhance both student learning experiences and professional practices, thereby enabling more peaceful and democratic futures
Topic:: Education, Governance, Democracy, Peace, Higher Education, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

1067. Contemporary Investigations on Academic Freedom and Conflict in Africa: A Metaphorical Linguistic Analysis

Author:: Abdul Karim Bangura
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: That transgression against academic freedom is a major human fault line that leads to conflict in Africa is hardly a matter of dispute. Yet, this topic has not received its deserved attention in the study of peace and conflict on the continent. By arguing that one factor that is employed to contravene academic freedom in Africa comprises the metaphors that are employed in discussing the issue, this paper offers a linguistic analysis of the metaphors that have appeared in contemporary works on the topic, beginning with the one commissioned by CODESRIA, edited by Mamadou Diouf and Mah- moud Mamdani, and published in 1993 to that written by John Higgins and published in 2014. This is essential because metaphors are not just “more picturesque speech.” The power of metaphors hinges upon their ability to assimilate new experiences so as to allow the newer and abstract domain of experience to be understood in terms of the former and more concrete, and to serve as a basis and justification for policy making. We should there- fore be horrified by the metaphors that have become the currency in our discourses within the academy, as some of these lead to the loss of lives, employment, gender equity, benefits, prestige, etc.
Topic:: Linguistics, Academia, Domestic Policy, and Free Speech
Political Geography:: Africa

1068. Youth Patronage: Violence, Intimidation, and Political Mobilization in Zimbabwe

Author:: Godfrey Maringira and Simbarashe Gukurume
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The Zimbabwean political terrain has been inundated with deep seated youth violence and neopatrimonial politics, mediated through Pres- ident Robert Mugabe and his political party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and its patronage networks. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork research with youth in Harare, this paper focuses on the dynamics of youth patronage and violence as a tool of political mobiliza- tion by ZANU-PF in urban spaces. This paper shows that one of the remark- able ways in which Mugabe has been able to remain in power is through his ability to transform his political position into a source of opportunities for his political clients. It examines the ways in which Mugabe’s political party mobilizes political violence in return for political benefits within the city of Harare. We examine this political patronage system and the ways in which it influences the ordinary lives of youth in the city. We argue that Mugabe should be construed as a political ‘Big Man’ patron with a huge network of political clients, the youth included. We show how ZANU-PF creates paral- lel structures that mediate the exchange of resources in return for political loyalty and mobilization of violence by ZANU-PF against its real or perceived political nemesis.
Topic:: Youth, Violence, Political Parties, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

1069. Local Water Conflicts in Uganda: Options for Peacebuilding Policy and Practice

Author:: Resty Naiga
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief draws on the results of field-based research on water-related conflicts in Western Uganda to analyze the governance and institutional build- ing aspects of conflict prevention and peacebuilding. The brief provides policy and practical options on how to address governance aspects of peacebuild- ing in relation to local water conflicts.
Topic:: Water, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

1070. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Author:: Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

1071. Regional Developmentalism in West Africa: The Case for Commodity-Based Industrialisation through Regional Cooperation in the Cocoa-Chocolate Sector

Author:: Jonathan Bashi Rudahindwa and Sophie van Huellen
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Regional integration occupies a prominent place in the economic policies of most Sub- Saharan African countries. However, despite different waves of initiatives across the African continent, the majority of African regional schemes have not managed to achieve their ambitious goal of promoting sustainable development through trade integration in Africa. In light of this observation, using the West African cocoa- chocolate sector as a case study, we propose the regional developmentalism paradigm as an alternative approach to regionalism in Africa, placing a particular emphasis on the use of regional and sub-regional approaches to development. Instead of full-fledged trade liberalisation and indiscriminate economic integration, the regional developmentalism paradigm advocates for state-led trade facilitation, regulatory convergence and capacity-building through the adoption of policies directed at strategic sectors. We evaluate the potential of the regional developmentalism paradigm to promote economic transformation and commodity-based industrialisation against the shortcomings of the current regional integration approach embodied in the institutional framework of ECOWAS.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Commodities, Regionalism, and Industrialization
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

1072. Paris, Algiers Concerned over Mali’s Transitional Regime

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses the regional and international challenges facing Mali's new transitional government, and its precarious security situation. Can Mali’s new government regain territorial control and restore personal security? For the past four months, Mali has been governed by a transition government that was set up after a military coup d’état in the summer of 2020. The international community initially condemned the coup, but it has since been forced to accept this reality, and has been encouraging Mali’s military and the transition government to advance the implementation of the 2015 Algiers peace accords. Yet actions taken so far by the military and the new regime do not bode well for the future of the country, and are showing signs of weakness vis-à-vis a multitude of armed groups, including several jihadi militant organizations.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali

1073. From Bad To Worse? The Impact(s) of Covid-19 On Conflict Dynamics

Author:: Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In December 2019, when the novel strain of coronavirus first hit the headlines, 12 countries in the world were experiencing organised violence on an extensive scale, with more than 100 incidents of violence and attacks against civilians recorded in that month. To most of these countries, the virus seemed a distant threat at the time. Yet, a few months and over 7 million recorded Covid-19 cases later, it has evolved from a distant threat to a stark reality. The global crisis – which has unleashed an emergency in the world’s public health, political, and economic systems simultaneously – has subjected even the most stable societies to unprecedented disruption. In conflict-affected countries, i.e. countries with ongoing conflicts or a high risk of relapse into conflict, and countries emerging from conflicts, the pandemic has added another layer on top of often multiple existing layers of crisis. Against the backdrop of expert warnings over the particular vulnerabilities of conflict-affected countries to Covid-19, this Brief analyses key emerging dynamics and repercussions in conflict-affected countries in general, and in five countries in particular: Colombia, Libya, Sudan, Ukraine and Yemen. The focus here is especially on conflicts and countries previously covered by our Conflict Series, so as to build on already accumulated analysis. The Brief identifies three main ways in which the global crisis impacts conflict-affected countries. First, the pandemic itself risks exacerbating inequalities and further burdening already vulnerable groups within conflict-affected societies. Second, local and external conflict parties are quick to capitalise on various opportunities arising from the policy responses to the crisis which also complicate peace and crisis management efforts. Third, the economic fallout puts severe strain on already weak state institutions and undermines governance outcomes (thus increasing the risk of conflict). Of these three dimensions, the policy responses and distraction created by the pandemic have thus far had the most significant repercussions for conflict dynamics, unfortunately often for the worse. The global scale of the crisis and its continuing evolution complicate efforts to seize momentum for peace and set the pandemic apart from previous catastrophic/disruptive events, such as the tsunami in 2004, that in some cases led to a positive shift in local conflict dynamics. The Brief is structured as follows: the main text analyses the emerging trends catalysed by the pandemic crisis in conflict-affected contexts, while the case study boxes discuss the unfolding processes in specific countries. The last section discusses the policy options for preventing further escalatory repercussions.
Topic:: War, Inequality, Conflict, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Asia, South America, North Africa, North America, and Africa

1074. Sahel Climate Conflicts? When (fighting) climate change fuels terrorism

Author:: Luca Raineri
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Levels of armed violence in the Sahel are skyrocketing. Conflict metrics show that the region is caught in a spiral of insecurity.1 Communal violence and jihadist insurgencies have significantly undermined local states’ grip over large parts of their territories, particularly in the three-border area straddling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Amidst the proliferation of non-state armed groups, attacks by terrorist groups linked to al-Qaeda or the Islamic State networks have risen sharply since 2015. Policy and media discourses suggest that soaring terrorist violence is linked to, if not driven by, climatic and environmental factors. In the Sahelian context – the argument goes – in a region characterised by environmental degradation and sustained population growth, climate change has the potential to exacerbate competition over dwindling resources, fuelling conflict escalation and radicalisation. This narrative draws on global discourses about resource conflicts and climate wars, and contributes to shaping security and development policies targeting the Sahel. Climate change mitigation and environmental protection measures are thus seen as structural preconditions to tackle the root causes of the Sahel’s insecurity and rising (jihadist) violence. The idea that terrorism and climate change are somehow connected is a seductive one. It offers international donors the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone by addressing jointly what are arguably the most pressing issues facing the international community, thereby overcoming political divides. And it provides local governments with a narrative that depoliticises conflicts and downplays their own responsibilities. However, such simplistic Malthusian arguments that connect terrorism in the Sahel to climatic and environmental factors do not stand up to empirical scrutiny. Whether and how natural resources are associated with conflicts’ onsets and dynamics, and to what extent climate change has the potential to exacerbate these trends, are questions that remain highly contested. Just as much as with other issue-areas of climate change, there is no shortage of unsubstantiated misconceptions about climate and conflict, and environment and security more broadly. This Conflict Series Brief sets out to illustrate that misconceived environmental security policymaking, especially when based on rhetorical shortcuts that overlook and contradict the most recent evidence, is not only ineffective, but can have radically adverse impacts. Even if well-intentioned, climate change mitigation and environmental protection measures based on false premises may result in conflict exacerbation, rather than resolution: a situation that violent jihadist entrepreneurs exploit. To this end, the Brief scrutinises three programmes rolled out in the Sahel to fight desertification, prevent food crises, and preserve wildlife which have ended up contributing to the encroachment of terrorist groups in the region. The lessons learnt from these cases helps highlight the policy implications for existing and future efforts to fight violent extremism and promote sustainable development sponsored by the Sahel’s international partners, including the EU.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

1075. Russia's Forays into Sub-Saharan Africa: Do you want to be my friend, again?

Author:: Giovanni Faleg and Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 1977, the Soviet Union’s leadership was in a jubilant mood as Ethiopia had just switched sides to the socialist camp. By the time of this event, the Kremlin had been conducting a renewed offensive on the continent for several years, propping up socialist regimes and ‘liberation movements’ in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe) and South Africa. Yet contrary to warnings that the Soviets might eventually ‘swallow’ all of sub-Saharan Africa, by 1990 the offensive had fizzled out: ideologically and financially broken, Moscow cut military aid, suspended credit lines, wound down diplomatic representations, closed cultural centres and ultimately withdrew political support. When rebel forces advanced towards Addis Ababa in 1991, Moscow stood idly by as the Derg regime – its former poster child – disintegrated. Over the course of the next two decades, post-Soviet Russia showed little interest in the sub-continent and only in the late 2010s did the Kremlin once again display the ambition to play a greater geopolitical role: sub-Saharan Africa remerged in Russian political discourse and trade and diplomatic traffic picked up. Simultaneously, Moscow revived alumni associations of Africans who studied in the Soviet Union and launched initiatives to lure more students to Russia. The Wagner Group – a military enterprise connected to the Russian state – also expanded its radius of action south of the Sahara. But what is driving Moscow’s renewed activism? How different it is from its previous diplomatic thrusts? Can a coherent strategy be discerned behind this push? Finally, how is sub-Saharan Africa reacting to Russia’s overtures and what does it mean for the EU?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

1076. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations

Author:: John Young
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The Nile River bears considerably on inter-state relations among the countries through which it flows; with struggles over control of its waters driving the political undercurrents of the region. Ethiopia and Sudan exemplify such relations, shaped as much by the ebb and flow of the Nile as the rise and fall of the regimes that have governed them. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project analyzes this relationship and its place in a politically dynamic and evolving region. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian–Sudanese Relations finds that the cold war both shaped and was itself shaped by the conflicts within and between the two countries. Following the end of the cold war, relations considerably improved under President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia. However, the recent emergence of new governments in both countries does not guarantee a cordial relationship in the future as on-going political reforms, internal threats, and external influences from powerful states weigh heavily on both countries.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia

1077. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Hana Salama
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: UN peace operations are uniquely positioned—and mandated—to collect and monitor data on conflict-related casualties. Through the collection and analysis of this type of data, UN missions can both improve the effectiveness of peace operations and assist the international effort among UN Member States to achieve progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16—particularly Indicator 16.1.2 on conflict-related deaths. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) and Human Security Baseline Assessment in Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) projects examines the current capacity of UN peace operations as data providers. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations reviews current practices of data collection in UN operational settings and provides case studies through three UN peace operations in the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan. The paper, authored by casualty recording expert Hana Salama, concludes that UN missions already do much of the work required but lack the effectual mandate, resources, and coordination to ensure that the information is useful for the purpose of the SDGs.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sustainable Development Goals, Conflict, Peace, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan

1078. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria

Author:: Flora McCrone
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In 2018, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoSS), the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As part of the transitional security arrangements within the R-ARCSS framework, all warring parties agreed to assemble combatants in designated cantonment sites to facilitate their training, and later, integration into a new ‘unity’ army or other national security services. A Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the process of cantonment and the challenges in operationalizing the Agreement. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria describes the transitional security arrangements of the R-ARCSS and the scope of force sizes to be cantoned. It follows with a case study of Western Equatoria’s Arrow Boys, demonstrating how their involvement exposes some of the fault-lines within the broader integration process. The Briefing Paper finds that the implementation of the R-ARCSS is leading to deteriorating local security, community cohesion, and stability.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

1079. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region

Author:: Roberto Sollazzo and Matthias Nowak
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The tri-border area between Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mali has long been an important zone of commerce for West Africa, and a key transit route for the trade flowing between the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahara, Sahel, and Mediterranean. In recent years, however, smuggling and trafficking has risen in the subregion because of the growing demand for illicit goods and firearms. This demand is fueled by communities’ need for self-defense due to banditry and the increased presence of jihadist groups; needs of traditional hunters and non-state security providers; and the ecosystem around artisanal and small-scale gold mining in which criminals seek weapons to target the miners who in turn equip themselves with firearms for protection against attacks. These dynamics heighten the risk of insecurity and instability. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region, by the Survey's Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project, takes a detailed look at the actors enabling smuggling and arms trafficking in the region, identifies the drivers of this traffic, and analyzes the impacts on local communities. The paper finds that there are three key trafficking axes in the area and that states are largely unable to control their borders and prevent these activities. The study also shows that illicit firearms are often trafficked together with other smuggled goods such as gold or drugs, using the ant trade method.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Political stability, Trafficking, and Smuggling
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso

1080. Spilling Over: Conflict Dynamics in and around Sudan's Blue Nile State, 2015–19

Author:: Khalid Ammar Hassan
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-North (SPLM/A-N) in Sudan’s Blue Nile state erupted in September 2011—extending from ongoing combat in South Kordofan, in Jibal El Nouba state. Fighting continued until mid-2016 when both parties declared unilateral cessations of hostilities. Although the Blue Nile conflict has been deemed ‘inactive’ since 2016, tensions in the area continue as a result of the SPLM/A-N split into two factions and the state’s proximity to South Sudan. A report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the developments in Blue Nile from 2015 onwards. Spilling Over: Conflict Dynamics in and around Sudan’s Blue Nile State, 2015–19 takes its basis in previous HSBA studies on the topic from 2011 to 2015, and provides an analysis of the military and political dynamics that followed. It assesses the evolution of the SPLM/A-N’s war with the Government of Sudan (GoS); the split within the SPLM/A-N itself; the dire humanitarian situation; as well as the failed—more than 15 since 2011—peace talks.
Topic:: Conflict, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

1081. Sudan Uprising: Popular Struggles, Elite Compromises, and Revolution Betrayed

Author:: John Young
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In response to wider economic decline and uneven development, youth-led protests broke out in Khartoum in December 2018. Following this, the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) brought together political parties and armed groups to form the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), committed to removing Omar al-Bashir from power. A report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, Sudan Uprising: Popular Struggles, Elite Compromises, and Revolution Betrayed, analyzes the 2018–19 uprising in the country, what led up to it, and what happened next. Trailing the history of rebellion in Sudan, the reign of the National Islamist Front (NIF)/ National Congress Party (NCP), the dynamics of the uprising, the attack on the sit-in outside the military headquarters in Khartoum, and the power-sharing agreement, the report finds that since the primary grievances underlying the uprising were not resolved, instability is likely to continue.
Topic:: Social Movement, Political stability, Protests, Revolution, and Elites
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

1082. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement

Author:: Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin, and Mahamat Saleh Mangare
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Darfur’s fade-out from international headlines and Western interests over the past several years has fostered a false narrative that the conflict there is over, despite stark evidence to the contrary. Linked to this narrative, the paralysis of internal and international engagement on Darfur has compelled Darfurians—civilians and combatants alike—to increase their outward mobility in search of safety and livelihood opportunities in neighbouring African countries or further afield into Europe. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement, a new joint report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) and Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) projects analyzes several components and consequences of this increased mobility. The report finds that highly mobile Darfurian rebel groups have found fertile ground for lucrative activities such as cross-border smuggling in neighbouring countries—particularly Libya. The study also notes that the harsh conditions encountered in Libya by non-Arab Darfurian civilians have compelled many to seek asylum across the Mediterranean in Europe.
Topic:: Conflict, Smuggling, and Disengagement
Political Geography:: Africa, Darfur, and Libya

1083. Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa

Author:: Nicolas Florquin, Elodie Hainard, and Benjamin Jongleux
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Even though states may not intentionally supply materiel to armed groups, a lack of stringent risk assessments on weapons and ammunition exports destined for areas prone to diversion can hamper efforts to curtail the broader illicit arms trade. The 2020 edition of the Small Arms Survey’s annual Trade Update, Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa, delves into cases of authorized small arms ammunition transfers to Africa through exploring the potential of beyond-the-norm data sources. Relying on peacekeeping operations, national customs, and civil society research, the case studies highlight ammunition imports from opaque exporters to countries affected by armed conflict, states subject to arms embargoes, and other areas on the continent equally prone to seeing arms and ammunition diverted from the licit to illicit markets. Ammunition accounted for 42 per cent of all authorized African small arms imports in 2017. Since countries with low transparency records do export ammunition to government forces in conflict-affected regions and such regions are prone to diversion, there is a gap in risk identification. Therefore, findings from the case studies emphasize the importance of exporters improving their reporting practices and carrying out stringent risk assessments. In addition, the leveraging of multiple data sources can enhance the monitoring of the authorized ammunition trade and help curb unauthorized activities.
Topic:: Civil Society, Crime, Markets, Peacekeeping, Arms Trade, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Africa

1084. Democratic Change and Urbanisation in the Aftermath of the Arab Revolts: Euro-Mediterranean Cultural Cooperation in Local Urban Development in Morocco and Tunisia

Author:: Hannah Abdullah
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The so-called “Arab Spring” of 2011 emerged from societies that had been suffering the negative consequences of rapid and unplanned urbanisation for over two decades. The political and socioeconomic discontent that spurred the revolts was closely related to the increase in urban poverty and high levels of inequality that came with these developments. In its response to the Arab revolts, the European Union (EU) only engaged marginally with their urban causes, and above all from a technical rather than political perspective. This focus on technical urban solutions was in line with the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) South and its prioritisation of security and stabilisation concerns over democracy promotion. This article analyses how Euro-Mediterranean cultural cooperation programmes, which form an integral part of the EU’s civil society agenda in the region, was an exception by offering a more political response to the urban discontent that spurred the revolts. The focus is on a programme that supported civil society organizations (CSOs) in Tunisia and Morocco in their effort to assert their “right to the city” by formulating cultural solutions to promote democratic and sustainable local urban development. The article examines how the programme sought to strike a balance between the ENP’s stabilisation and democratisation concerns by fostering collaborative relations between CSOs and public authorities, especially at local level. While the two country case studies are not reflective of EU cultural relations with the region as a whole, the analysis points towards possible ways in which cultural cooperation can engage with the complex relationship between democratic change and urbanisation, and how CSOs can become effective partners in this endeavour. At a more theoretical level, the article examines what role the EU’s strategy for cultural relations has played in its wider civil society agenda in the Southern Neighbourhood, and how urban issues have featured in this overlapping policy space.
Topic:: Culture, Social Movement, Urbanization, Democracy, Inequality, Arab Spring, and Urban
Political Geography:: Africa, Morocco, and Tunisia

1085. How Tunisia’s En-Nahda crafts Islamist politics: From programmatic failure to neo-Islamist framing

Author:: Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: En-Nahda’s participation in Tunisia’s post-revolutionary politics triggered an adaptive process, refecting a transition from theoretical elaborations to political practice. Switching from clandestine regime opposition to engagement in an emerging pluralistic system also puts to the test the grand narrative that defnes the movement’s rationale and intends to captivate the party’s potential constituency. After fve years in the game, assuming a tainted Islamist label and somehow acknowl- edging programmatic failure, the party’s leadership proposed a neo-Islamist framing, ‘Muslim democracy’, in 2016. Tis semantic operation aims to fuse two schools of thought, a confessional and a political one, with historically distinct governance systems and polit- ical cultures. Hence, despite this twist in rhetoric, a major challenge for En-Nahda remains the rec- onciliation of its utilitarian take on democratic procedures with its deep-rooted reference to Islamic principles. Yet while continuing to stress its readiness for concessions, suppos- edly in order to save Tunisia’s democratic transition, En-Nahda’s political programme, practice and narrative remain fawed, fuid and unconvincing respectively, eroding its credibility and incrementally reducing its mobilisation capacity.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Democracy, Leadership, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

1086. THE SIDAMA’S QUEST FOR SELF-RULE: A STUDY OF THE REFERENDUM ON REGIONAL STATEHOOD

Author:: Kjetil Tronvoll, Filata Boroje, and Kairedin Tezera
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: On 14 and 15 January 2020, the European Institute of Peace presented a report entitled “Sidama’s quest for self-rule: a study of the referendum on regional statehood” in Addis Ababa, to an audience of politicians, policy makers, activists, academics and researchers, civil society organisations, and interested citizens of Ethiopia. This study, conducted by Professor Kjetil Tronvoll with Filata Boroje and Kairedin Tezera on behalf of the Institute, assesses the referendum that was held among inhabitants of the Sidama zone Ethiopia on 20 November 2019.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Nation-State, Autonomy, Independence, and Statehood
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

1087. Consumer Expenditure Inequality in Botswana

Author:: Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: For over three decades, Botswana has achieved a fast growing economy, with an annual growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaging 10.9 percent in the period 1981- 90, faster even than the East Asian Tigers or China (Good and Hughes, 2002). Between 2000 and 2001 financial year, Botswana’s economy recorded higher growth rates of 9.1 percent, an increase from 8.1 percent recorded between 1999 and 2000, which was mainly attributed to the growth in the mining sector (BIDPA Briefing, 2002). To emphasise on the desire to continue growing, Botswana has adopted Vision 2036, and other development strategies and policies to improve the implementation of interventions tackling unsatisfactory social indicators. Botswana has also subscribed to both continental and international frameworks, such as the Africa Agenda 2063 and United Nations (UN) Millennium Declaration and its Eight Millennium Development Goals, and further signed up for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of 2030. Regardless of the afore-mentioned positive growth, and immense efforts, the country has not achieved the desirable results it sought with regard to some of the social indicators, such as employment, unemployment, inequality and poverty.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Poverty, Labor Issues, Inequality, Demand, Unemployment, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

1088. Burundi’s Institutional Landscape after the 2020 Elections

Author:: Stef Vandeginste
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Burundi’s forthcoming elections mark the next stage in the implementation of the Constitution of 7 June 2018. Four key institutional innovations, situated mostly at the level of the executive branch, will take effect after the elections. Contrary to the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of August 2000 and the Constitution of 18 March 2005, the 2018 Constitution no longer requires the establishment of a coalition government. While re- introducing a prime minister, the new constitution also enhances presidential powers. Furthermore, the 2018 Constitution has an immediate and longer-term impact on the use of ethnic quotas
Topic:: Elections, Constitution, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

1089. Context matters – Why Africa should Tailor its own Measures to fight COVID-19

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: African governments have been faster than most of their European counterparts in imposing measures to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak despite dealing with numerous other challenges. However, context matters, and for Africa, the political and socioeconomic consequences of the lockdown measures may cause more havoc than the actual virus. This brief identifies political, economic and social risks related to coronavirus responses in Africa and emphasises the disproportionate burden carried by women. It argues that localised measures, which include dialogue, transparency and flexibility, may be the only realistic way forward, while underlining the need for wealthier states to provide generous aid packages, debt cancellations and continued investments, in spite of current challenges, in order for Africa to pull through yet another challenge.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

1090. Going the Extra Mile for the 2020 Elections in the Central African Republic

Author:: Peter Knoope, Stephen Buchanan-Clarke, and Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The upcoming 2020 presidential election in the Central African Republic (CAR) has the potential to derail the implementation of the 2019 Khartoum Peace Agreement and bring about a return to widespread conflict. This calls for immediate and collaborative action to be taken by those national, regional, and international actors working for peace in the country. This policy brief aims to outline some of the key risks posed by the upcoming elections and provide recommendations to mitigate their potential to negatively impact on ongoing peace and reconciliation efforts.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Peace, Voting, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and Central African Republic

1091. Ghana’s Oil Sales: Using Commodity Trading Data for Accountability

Author:: Alexander Malden and Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted the Ghanaian economy, with the IMF projecting that growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in 2020 compared to December 2019’s projection of 5.8 percent. The country, like many oil-rich states, is facing the challenge of responding to the pandemic with reduced government revenues resulting from the oil price crash. The coronavirus has also exacerbated the country’s debt sustainability issues, which were already on the rise prior to the pandemic. Ghana is still a relatively new oil producer, with first production from its Jubilee field occurring in November 2010 and the first cargo sold in early 2011. However, the sector represents a significant source of revenue. Ghana’s oil revenues totaled USD 938 million in 2019. Around USD 802 million of this amount, or 86 percent, came from cargos of oil sold by the Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC). This oil represents the state’s share of production that it derives from in-kind royalty payments and GNPC’s carried and participating interest (CAPI) in the three oil-producing projects in the country. GNPC oil sales equaled a full nine percent of Ghana’s government revenue in 2019. Responding to the pandemic with reduced government revenues makes it more important than ever that citizens are able to analyze GNPC’s oil sales activities. In this context, in this report the authors demonstrate how publicly available data on the state’s oil sales activities can be used by civil society organizations (CSOs), government, media and other oversight actors to hold the government, GNPC and trading companies accountable for how they sell and manage Ghana’s oil and its revenues. Commodity trading activities are often opaque and do not receive the same level of scrutiny as a state’s upstream operations. This opacity can create opportunities for governance and corruption risks that result in the loss and mismanagement of potential revenues. However, Ghana is one of the most transparent countries in reporting on its commodity trading activities. GNPC, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Ghana, the Public Interest and Accountability Committee and Ghana Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (GHEITI) all disclose information on the state’s oil sales activities. As one example, the MoF has disclosed information on the volume, unit price, date of sale and value for every cargo sold by GNPC to date.
Topic:: Debt, Oil, Accountability, Commodities, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

1092. DRC’s Mining Revenues: Increasing Accountability by Analyzing Payments to Governments Reports

Author:: Kaisa Toroskainen, Alexander Malden, and Jean Pierre Okenda
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: This report explores the payments made by ten international mining companies to Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) government entities since 2015. These payments, amounting to $2 billion, have been disclosed under European Union (EU), Canadian and United Kingdom (U.K.) laws. DRC government agencies can use this data to report on revenues as the country’s mining code requires. Civil society actors, auditors and international partners, notably the International Monetary Fund, can also benefit from using payments data to monitor critical policy and governance issues in the DRC.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Accountability, Mining, and IMF
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

1093. Decentralisation: The Search for New Development Solutions in the Arab World’s Peripheries

Author:: Intissar Kherigi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: An account of the Arab uprisings of the last decade would be incomplete without an understanding of regional inequalities. While each country’s protests were driven by a distinct combination of grievances, a common factor has been the marginalisation of “peripheries”. The Sidi Bouzid region of Tunisia from which the Arab Spring started is a region rich in agricultural resources yet poor in infrastructure and economic opportunities. Its connection rate to running water is half the national average. A similar story can be seen across the flashpoints of unrest in the Arab world, a story of widening urban-rural divides, uneven regional development and political and economic exclusion of entire regions. Can decentralisation address these grievances? Since the 1980s, decentralisation has been championed as a driver for both democratisation and development, promising to empower regions, granting them political representation and enabling them to create their own economic strategies. However, a key fear among many, from politicians and bureaucrats to ordinary citizens, is that decentralisation is a means for the central state to withdraw from its traditional functions and transfer responsibility for service provision to under-resourced and over-burdened local government. Yet, the demands for freedom, dignity and social justice voiced by the Arab uprisings require the central state to be more present in peripheries, not less. Can decentralisation help achieve greater local development in peripheral regions without allowing the central state to withdraw from its obligations to citizens? Is it even possible to envisage new forms of local development within the framework of highly centralised Arab states? How can Arab states reconfigure their relations with local communities in the context of severe political and economic crises? This article explores these questions in the Tunisian context, where a major decentralisation process is taking place in response to demands for inclusion and development. It argues that in order to produce new modes of local development in peripheries, central state institutions need to fundamentally reform the way they function.
Topic:: Inequality, Arab Spring, Decentralization, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis

1094. Urban Rights and Local Politics in Egypt: The Case of the Maspero Triangle

Author:: Dina Wahba
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In my visit to Egypt in late March 2018, two things were happening simultaneously: the demolition of Maspero Triangle, the neighbourhood I have been working on for my case study, and the re-election of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi for his second term. There was a big campaign banner, one of many engulfing Cairo, with El Sisi’s face and the slogan “You are the hope”. This banner on 6th of October bridge was overlooking the neighbourhood as the bulldozers were hard at work demolishing what was for years the homes of over 4000 families spanning generations. I was in a taxi trying inconspicuously to take pictures of the banner and wondering what my interlocutors would say when I ask them about how they view this promise of hope overlooking the destruction of their homes. I was also marvelling at the almost nonsensical sequence of events. In 2011 Maspero was one of the most militant neighbourhoods, among many in downtown and old Cairo (Ismail 2013), that defended the occupation of Tahrir Square. As it was adjacent to Tahrir, it played a crucial role in sustaining the square during the first 18 days of the uprising. Seven years after the revolution, the neighbourhood was faced with complete erasure. How did we get here? I argue for the productivity of looking at Egyptian politics through the lens of affect as a possible way to answer this question. As Laszczkowski and Reeves argue in their edited book Affective States (2017) “Affect is at the heart of those moments when the political catches us off guard or when it leaves us feeling catatonically suspended, wondering where we are, how we even go there, and when this became so ordinary”. In this paper, I examine one such moment: the demolition of Maspero neighbourhood that coincided with the re-election of Abd El Fattah El Sisi in early 2018. I investigate state-society relations and the shifts throughout those moments by looking at how one neighbourhood negotiated their survival that culminated in their removal. Much like the wider socio-political context in Egypt and the story of the Egyptian revolution itself, Maspero is a story of a negotiated failure. A youth-led movement that demanded basic rights, exhausted various political tactics to lobby the government and failed the bigger fight, but scored some victories, such as the ability of some 900 families to come back to Maspero after the development project is over. I argue that Maspero can uncover much about the wider political tribulations since 2011. The case offers a lens through which we can see political openings and opportunities, clampdowns and closures as well as the current regime’s agenda for ensuring that what happened on 25 January 2011 does not happen again. I claim that one of the tactics of the regime is to systematically deconstruct the politics of the urban subaltern that played a major role in the revolution (Ismail 2013) through urban reconfiguration as well as new and old methods of affective co-optation and coercion. In her analysis of state-society relations, Cilja Harders argues that “political science tends to privilege macro-level perspectives” rendering the urban subaltern as only passive subjects of political transformations (Harders 2003). I argue that this has not changed in analysing the aftermath of the revolution. Few studies discussed the role of the urban poor in the revolution; however, many scholars neglected the politicisation of the urban subaltern when analysing transformation (or lack thereof) in Egyptian politics in the last few years. After eight years, the situation seems bleak and the task futile. To argue for any kind of change, let alone transformation, one must be blind to the strong backlash against any attempt to capitalise on the temporary gains of the revolution. The only story left to be told seems to be one of failure. The utter failure of a reformist movement to impose even partially its agenda for change (Bayat 2017). However, the case of Maspero neighbourhood and its youth alliance allow me to trace the revolution back into the everyday politics of citizens in a crushing struggle with the regime to examine whether the revolution disrupted informal traditional ways of doing politics. Rather than examine radical or even reformist regime or legal changes in national politics, I am interested in informal politics and its disruption. “It is in the local scale that power relations become tangible and abstract concepts such as ‘state’ and ‘politics’ observable” (Hoffmann, Bouziane & Harders 2013, 3). Building on the work of scholars of everyday politics, street politics and politics from below, I focus, therefore, on the street and, more specifically, Maspero, a neighbourhood adjacent to Tahrir Square that lived the revolution with all its tribulations, a neighbourhood that affected and was affected by the revolution. I find Salwa Ismail’s work on the role of the urban subaltern in the revolution productive in unpacking and tracing the “everyday” in the Egyptian revolution. “The infrastructures of mobilisation and protest lay in the microprocesses of everyday life at the quarter level, in their forms of governance and in the structure of feelings that developed in relation to state government” (Ismail 2012, 450). Ismail’s argument highlights the quarters or neighbourhoods as spatial political laboratories where the urban subaltern, through rigorous negotiations and “every day” encounters with the different arms of the state, accumulates knowledge about modes of governance and how to resist them. This was obvious in the role that the urban subaltern played in the revolution and was reflected in the narratives of my interlocutors and highlighted in some of the scholar’s accounts of the revolution. In Ismail’s (2012) account of the “backstreets of Tahrir”, she narrates several important “battles” in informal neighbourhoods that she believes were vital to the success of the revolution. These “battles” manifest the moment of convergence between locally grounded grievances and national revolutionary politics. “The account of the battles serves to draw attention to the place of popular quarters in the geography of resistance, and to the spatial inscription of popular modes of activism”. (Ismail 2012, 446) The importance of Ismail’s account is in linking popular resistance to the spatial characteristics of the quarter, which brings up the question of what will happen to popular resistance when the neighbourhood is gone. I argue that the removal of entire neighbourhoods has a political purpose, that of dismantling the political laboratories and crushing street politics. In discussing the battles in Tahrir, Bulaq Abu Al-Ila features prominently in sheltering activists, defending the occupation of the square and engaging in prolonged street fights that exhausted the police and kept it from reclaiming the square. Ismail (2012, 448) links the neighbourhood’s repertoire of contention to a history of patriotism that goes back to the resistance of the French colonial conquest, again highlighting a spatially bounded accumulation of generational knowledge and affective register of popular resistance. The aim of my endeavour is not just to highlight the role of the urban subaltern in the revolution and the subsequent politicisation and depoliticization and what one may learn from it. It is also to link this to what the state has been learning about countering any possible future mobilisation in order to foresee state strategies of radically altering the “every day” modes of governance and with it modes of resistance and to connect this to the urgency of urban restructuring processes happening in Cairo on an unprecedented scale since the 1990s. Asef Bayat (2012) explores the politics of the urban subaltern in “neoliberal cities” in an authoritarian regime. Bayat offers the concept of “social non-movements” to analyse street politics (2012, 119). According to him, the streets are vital to the urban subaltern: he writes that “[t]he centrality of streets goes beyond merely the expression of contention. Rather, streets may actually serve as an indispensable asset/capital for them to subsist and reproduce economic as well as cultural life” (2012, 119). Bayat describes the ongoing conflict over the public space between the state and the urban subaltern as “street politics” (Bayat 2009). These ongoing processes consequently create the “political street”, hence, politicising ordinary citizens through their struggles over urban space. Some of the questions that arise here and reflect the limitations of Bayat’s arguments in this point of history relate to what happens to “street politics” when the urban subaltern loses the “political street”. Reflecting on the case of Maspero neighbourhood, what happens to the politicisation and cultural and economic appropriation when they are relocated to Asmarat, a far-off gated community out of central Cairo? What happens to the politics of the urban poor when they lose their “capital”? And, what kind of political and spatial affects are tied to this dispossession? One of the challenges of studying Maspero was to understand the affective attachments that people had to the neighbourhood. Drawing from the literature on street politics and Asef Bayat’s notion of encroachment (2009), I could understand materially the reasons why forcefully displacing people from their homes could be traumatic. However, as I witnessed them mourn the neighbourhood it became clear to me that there are reasons beyond what this literature can offer. Here, affect theories can be helpful. Yael Navaro Yashin calls for “a reconceptualization of the relation between human beings and space” (2012, 16). Yashin critiques what she calls “the social-constructionist imagination” in its focus on conceptualising space only through what humans project on it. Building on Teresa Brennan’s work on the transmission of affect, Yashin argues for affective relationality between humans and their environment. However, she does not take an object-centred approach but combines the human subjective approach with one that explores that “excess” in the environment that she studies through the lens of affect. Yashin’s work on the collision of the phantasmatic and the material is essential in understanding the “affect” of the neighbourhood. According to Yashin, “the make-believe is real” (2012, 10). Reflecting on the case of Maspero, the affective attachments that the inhabitants of the neighbourhood developed was built around the material, the encroachment, and the social networks but moved beyond this. To them, Maspero is their country and their home. Below one of my research interlocutors, a male resident of Maspero in his 30s explains to me the attachment of the people to Maspero Triangle. “We belong to this place; it is part of us, and we are a part of it. This place holds our memories and childhood. This is something that officials never understood. But we felt it. In this place I used to play, when I am upset, I like to sit in this place and talk to my friends. We are attached to this place not just because it is close to our work. We are linked spiritually to this place; our hearts are attached to this place. I do not want to go out. I do not want to live even in Zamalek, which is very close to us. I do not want to live there. We are attached to this place.” Nigel Thrift (2007) argues that for the political importance of studying affect in cities and affective cities to trace how affect and cities interact to produce politics. The interactions between space, bodies and affect are linked to political consequences. Thrift goes further to point to the political engineering of affect in urban everyday life and what might seem to us as aesthetic is politically instrumentalised. This engineering of affect can have various political aims. To erase emotional histories, create new affective registers or mobilise old ones in urban settings through urban restructuring (Thrift 2007, 172). Thus, it is not farfetched to argue that the urban restructuring of cities is linked to eliciting or inhibiting political responses. The massive plan of the Egyptian government to drastically change downtown Cairo, a space that witnessed a revolution has interlinked political and affective goals. It aims at erasing the affective register of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and inhibits the politics of the urban poor.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, Revolution, Urban, and Youth Movement
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Egypt, and Maspero

1095. What Has Changed in Policing since the Arab Uprisings of 2011? Surveying Policing Concepts and Modes of Contestation

Author:: Alex Walsh
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The 2011 Egyptian protests started in earnest nine years ago on National Police Day on 25 January, a holiday that Hosni Mubarak had introduced to commemorate Egyptian police officers killed and wounded by British colonial forces in 1952. Protesters upended the original meaning of the holiday to turn it into a symbol of police brutality and corruption under Mubarak. In the drama of the 18 days that followed, Egypt’s internal security apparatus fought the protesters in the streets, delivering one shocking provocation after another, galvanizing the protest movement and ultimately contributing to the removal of Mubarak. Since 2011, the police and internal security forces of many countries in the Arab world have been at the centre of the conflicts and struggles that shape the region for better and for worse. Recent and ongoing encounters between protestors and police in the streets of Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria and Sudan are a stark reminder that the police are more than just a proxy target for a protestation of the state. They are also the object of much anger both as a grouping, and in terms of the concept of policing and social control they embody. The impact of this sustained contestation of police behaviour and doctrine in the region deserves reflection. Has the police and policing changed in the Arab world? And if so, in what ways? This paper maps out some of the main modes in which the police and policing have been contested since 2011, and provides a preliminary assessment of its impact. It argues that mass mobilised contestation has only been successful in the instance where institutional reform followed. It notes that hybridisation of policing – where informal security actors cooperate and challenge formal security actors – has spread in many countries but that the concept of state security – with its emphasis on the state over citizens – continues to prevail across the region. Indeed, almost a decade after that fateful 25 January 2011, many of the aspirations of citizens protesting the police are far from realised, even while there are some promising developments.
Topic:: Protests, Repression, Police, and Police State
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Egypt, and Cairo

1096. Joint NGO Letter: The UN Human Rights Council should extend the mandate of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: A letter to the UN Human Rights Council from a number of NGOs (African Centre for Democracy and Human Rights Studies (ACDHRS); AfricanDefenders (Pan-African Human Rights Defenders Network); Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS); Center for Reproductive Rights; Central African Network of Human Rights Defenders (REDHAC) CIVICUS; Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO) – South Sudan; Crown The Woman – South Sudan; DefendDefenders (the East and Horn of Africa Human Rights Defenders Project); Dominicans for Justice and Peace; Geneva for Human Rights / Genève pour les Droits de l’Homme; Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GCR2P); Human Rights Watch; International Commission of Jurists; FIDH (International Federation for Human Rights); International Movement Against All Forms of Discrimination and Racism (IMADR); International Service for Human Rights; Lawyers’ Rights Watch Canada; Legal Action Worldwide (LAW); National Alliance for Women Lawyers – South Sudan; Southern Africa Human Rights Defenders Network (SAHRDN); South Sudan Human Rights Defenders Network (SSHRDN); World Organisation Against Torture (OMCT)).
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, United Nations, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Africa, United Nations, and South Sudan

1097. Threat from African Militant Islamist Groups Expanding, Diversifying

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Militant Islamist groups in Africa set a record pace of activity in 2019, reflecting a doubling of militant Islamist activity from 2013. Expanded activity in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin underscores diversification of threat from Somalia.
Topic:: United Nations, Violent Extremism, ISIS, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Mozambique, Somalia, Sahel, and Lake Chad Basin

1098. Civilians Versus Their Governments: China, the United States, and the Changing Nature of Conflict and Security in Africa

Author:: Obert Hodzi
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: With a few exceptions, armed civil wars are no longer commonplace in Africa, but anti-government protests are. Instead of armed rebels, unarmed civilians are challenging regimes across Africa to reconsider their governance practices and deliver both political and economic change. In their responses, regimes in countries like Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Rwanda, and Burundi have favored the combat mode—responding to dissent with military and repressive means. With few options, civilian movements look to the United States for protection and support while their governments look to China for reinforcement. If the United States seeks to reassert its influence in Africa and strengthen its democratic influence, its strategy needs to go beyond counterterrorism and respond to Africa’s pressing needs while supporting the African people in their quest for democracy and human rights.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, State Violence, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1099. Local Activism in post-2011 Egypt

Author:: Nadine Abdalla
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Various forms of local activism in Egypt are challenging the shortcomings in local governance and the lack of any developmental urban vision. This paper examines three examples from different neighbourhoods in Giza and Cairo. All three share the goal of resisting exclusionary policies while trying to overcome the absence of political means to register their frustrations given the absence of local councils since 2011.
Topic:: Social Movement, Arab Spring, Urban, and Local
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Egypt, Cairo, and Giza

1100. EUROPEAN INTERESTS AND EXTERNAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY OF THE EU TOWARD EGYPT

Author:: Defne Günay
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: According to the International Panel on Climate Change, climate change will affect the rivers leading to the Mediterranean, desertification will increase, rise in sea level will affect coastal settlements, and crop productivity will decrease in the region. Therefore, climate change is an important issue for the Mediterranean region. The European Union (EU) is a frontrunner in climate change policy, committing itself to a decarbonized economy by 2050. The EU also promotes climate action in the world through its climate diplomacy. Such EU action in promoting the norm of climate action can be explained with reference to EU’s economic interests. In this paper, I analyse whether the EU serves its economic interests by promoting climate action in its neighbourhood policy towards Egypt. Based on documentary analysis, this paper argues that European companies benefitted from the market-based solutions adopted by the Kyoto Protocol in Egypt, exported renewable energy technologies to Egypt and face a level-playing field in terms of regulations promoted for them by the EU in Egypt.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Regulation, Economy, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Egypt, and Mediterranean

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