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  • Author: Christopher Chase-Dunn, Thomas D. Hall, Susan Manning
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: All world–systems with at least a chiefdom level of political organization exhibit a pattern of the rise and fall of large polities. Among chiefdoms this pattern has been referred to as "cycling". In state–based systems it is known as the rise and fall of empires. And in the modern system it is called the "power cycle" or the "hegemonic sequence." This paper reexamines the question of synchronicities of rise and fall in systems linked only by very long distance prestige goods trade. Earlier research found that increases and decreases in the territorial sizes of empires and the population sizes of cities were highly correlated in East Asia and West Asia/Mediterranean regions from about 600 BCE to 1500 CE. Though data were somewhat scarce for South Asia, it appeared that Indic civilization did not rise and fall in tandem with the East and the West. In this paper we report an improved test of the synchronicity of empire sizes and the different pattern found in India
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: South Asia, East Asia
  • Author: Young Jong Choi
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Japan's preference toward regional institutions has received a great attention in recent years in relation to the development of regional institutions in Asia (exclusively East Asia) and the Pacific (the broader Asia-Pacific region). Japan's policy toward Asia and the Pacific has often been characterized by "hegemonic defection" and Japan as a "reactive state". The former indicates the absence of Japan's leadership in regional institution building (Mack and Ravenhill 1995: 8). The latter portrays Japan as incapable of pursuing pro-active policies in regional affairs because of its consensus-oriented culture, historical legacy of colonialism, domestic political gridlock and most of all extreme dependence upon the U.S. security umbrella (Calder 1988; Hellmann 1988; Pyle 1992; Curtis 1993).
  • Topic: Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Jack E. Holmes, Kevin Joldersma, Aaron Keck
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: The author has studied U.S. foreign policy long cycles for two decades and has an extensive database covering 1776-1990. A good deal of attention has been paid to U.S. foreign policy in the post-1945 setting where the U.S. is a world superpower. Now that the U.S. has been freed from the immediate demands of the Cold War, it is important to study American policy over the long run, especially the period before 1945. This paper uses conclusions from the author's previous work to raise issues which have implications for the study of world long cycles. Particular attention is given to consensus (societal/governmental) variables since the U.S. is one of the few countries with a long history under the same written constitution. The American experience indicates that the U.S. is inclined toward independent action as sometimes dictated by domestic considerations. While it is clear that the U.S. will act as a superpower in part due to the nature of the international system, it is important to consider some uniquely American features which also have an important impact on policy. The author's work includes two books on long-term American foreign policy trends. The first one, The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy, was published in 1985. It presented a general theory regarding how and why introvert and extrovert foreign policy moods alternate every two decades. This theory, as well as the dates of the cycles, is based on the work of Frank L. Klingberg (1952). Klingberg elaborates on his cycles in later works (1983 and 1996). Since the 1985 work contained a good deal of theory, it was thought that a more empirical study of these trends would be in order. Toward this end, the author created over 150 variables which have been given annual values for at least 150 years. These variables were based on the work of other authors and compilations of data. The resulting work, Ambivalent America, which has been the basis for several convention papers and is nearing completion as a book, raises a second set of conclusions which supplement those of the first book. At the same time, several authors have investigated world long cycles and raised a number of important issues. Most of these authors emphasize the period since the start of major European influence on the world while others go back prior to that period. With the exceptions of works by Klingberg and this author, however, similar attention has not been given to American trends. Pollins and Schweller (1997) do explore some issues relating to interactions of American and world cycles. The author believes that a conceptual comparison of American long cycles with world long cycles will raise some important issues, and that is the purpose of this paper.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Erik Melander
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper presents a simple and straightforward model of the security dilemma in settings in which the parties lack secure second–strike capabilities with weapons of mass destruction. The model includes first–strike advantages and incomplete information as to the antagonist's preference ordering. Imperfect information is used to simulate mutual fear of surprise attack.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Author: Layna Mosley
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: A central research problem in comparative and international political economy concerns the implications of economic globalization - and more specifically, of international capital mobility - for national economic policy choice. A large body of recent literature suggests that governments are, at least to some extent, constrained by relatively high levels of international capital mobility (Garrett, 1998; O'Brien, 1992). At the very least, the asset allocation decisions of financial market participants affect interest rate levels, and, therefore, the cost of borrowing for governments and private actors.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Tong Whan Park
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Though a half century has passed since the creation of a modern nation-state, Korea lags far behind Western European nations in the development of a civil society. It may be due to a number of factors, the most important of which could be the different path to modernization Korea has taken and the forced imposition of the nation-state system on a Confucian social structure. As such, the Seoul government's decision-making in general and foreign policymaking in particular have often lacked sensitivity to what the citizens may think and desire.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Israel, Korea, Western Europe
  • Author: James C. Roberts
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: In 1969, Johan Galtung proposed that physical violence be measured as the difference between actual and potential life expectancy. Structural violence occurs when the cause of this difference is caused by the economic structure of society. Measuring actual life expectancy is not difficult but potential life expectancy cannot be observed, it can only be projected.
  • Topic: International Relations, Peace Studies
  • Author: Gerald M. Steinberg
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Since the beginning of the atomic age in 1945, the possession and deployment of nuclear weapons has become the dominant factor in the international system. Those countries that acquired nuclear weapons have become (or maintained their status as) primary world powers, but as the number of such countries grew, the potential for the use of nuclear weapons also increased. In the early 1960s, President Kennedy warned that unless immediate and significant action was taken, within a decade there would be as many as 20 nuclear powers. The process of proliferation was seen as one of the most dangerous and destabilizing aspects of the nuclear era.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India
  • Author: William Stueck
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: "Transition" is surely the most hackneyed concept among commentators on Korea over the last decade. In this post-modern world of increasingly rapid change, it is fair to say that the Republic of Korea (ROK) is in a constant state of transition from one thing to something else. The two broad areas that most frequently appear in discussions of Korea's transition are economic and political development. In the first case, analysts trace the transition of the ROK from a backward, largely agrarian economy to an industrial and now even post-industrial powerhouse that competes at a high level in the world marketplace. In the latter case, scholars examine the transition from an authoritarian system to a democratic one. Until the economic slide of last fall and the subsequent election to and assumption of the presidency by former opposition leader Kim Dae Jung, most observers would have conceded that the political transition is at an earlier and more precarious stage than the economic. Kim's smooth rise to the ROK's highest office demonstrated powerfully that the way Koreans in the south conduct themselves politically has changed fundamentally over the last generation.
  • Political Geography: Korea
  • Author: Ilpyong J. Kim
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The visit of Jiang Zemin, president of the People's Republic of China (PRC), to the United States to meet with President Bill Clinton in October 1997, and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's meetings with Russian President BorisYeltsin and Chinese President Jiang, on November 10, changed the international environment. Hostilities among the major powers surrounding the Korean peninsula are being transformed by an atmosphere of reconciliation and confidence building.
  • Political Geography: Korea