Political Geography: - CIAO Search Results

42601. Introduction

Author:: Raj M. Desai
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The best hope for the world's poor lies in the ability of private aid givers to transform the current system of foreign aid, and to develop partnerships with the public sector, to advance common good.

42602. Global Institutions and Partnerships: The Future of International Development?

Author:: Carol Lancaster and Thomas Pogge
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Touching on various tiers of the global structure-from individual donors to public-private partnerships to multilateral aid agencies-these two thinkers share their perspectives on what can be changed and initiated in the years ahead to alleviate the plight of the world's poor.

42603. Presidential Power and the Internationalization of Domestic Policy Theory

Author:: Eric P. Schwartz and Lawrence R. Jacobs
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The upcoming American presidential election will overlap with a changing political schema. The United States has begun to witness an “internationalization” of its domestic policy. How the next administration adapts to this paradigm shift will have profound implications upon the future of U.S. prominence on the world's stage.
Political Geography:: United States and America

42604. China in Sudan: The Challenge of Non-Interference in a Failed State

Author:: Andrew W. Natsios
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: China has encountered increasing difficulty maintaining its foreign policy directive of 'non-interference' in Sudan, as complex internal conflicts lend an inescapably political dimension to the superpower's economic activities within the developing African country.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Sudan

42605. India-Latin America Relations A Work in Progress

Author:: Shashi Tharoor
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Examining the increasing interconnectedness of India and Latin America's economic and diplomatic interests, a more robust tie between the two seems likely to emerge. Nevertheless, political and trade-related reform needs to take place before this partnership can reach fruition.
Political Geography:: America, India, and Latin America

42606. The Future of Terrorist De-Radicalization

Author:: John Horgan and Mary Beth Altier
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: A number of countries run programs aimed at rehabilitating and reintegrating captured members of terrorist organizations. Yet recidivism of "rehabilitated" terrorists has called into question the effectiveness of these initiatives. In a quickly changing landscape of security threats, counterterrorism and counterinsurgency expert Bruce Hoffman discusses U.S. security policy in combating non-state actors across the world.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

42607. Abu Dhabi and What it Means to be a Global Cultural Capital

Author:: Cynthia P. Schneider
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Some groups within Nepal have advocated for a federal system of governance based on ethnic divisions. The authors argue that ethnic federalism is not a suitable solution for the country. Instead, they recommend a model of federalism based on inclusiveness and cooperation that would guarantee the mutually beneficial coexistence of Nepalis.
Political Geography:: Nepal and Abu Dhabi

42608. The Piracy Prosecution Paradox Political and Procedural Problems with Enforcing Order on the High Seas

Author:: Eugene Kontorovich
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Nations release pirates upon capture in order to avoid the increasingly stultifying hazards of legal bureaucracy and liability. Perhaps a more direct approach to combating the threats posed by these criminals would solve the piracy prosecution paradox once and for all.

42609. From Retribution to Reconciliation Transitional Justice in Rwanda, 1994-2011

Author:: David Rawson
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The process of post-genocide transitional justice begins to come to a close in Rwanda. Vital operational lessons can be learned from the international blunders and local triumphs of the past two decades to create a more rapid, meaningful, and reconciliatory global response system.
Political Geography:: Rwanda

42610. Strange Bedfellows The Convergence of Sovereignty-Limiting Doctrines in Counterterrorist and Human Rights Discourse

Author:: Rosa Brooks
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: A fragile ideological coalition has emerged with members of both the human rights and hard security communities advocating for more robust sovereignty-limiting doctrines. Perhaps it is best to simply embrace the organized hypocrisy that surrounds this case of strange bedfellows.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Sovereignty

42611. Doping, Gambling, and the Decline of the IOC

Author:: John Hoberman
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: The International Olympic Committee has struggled to address the dual problems of illegal drug use among elite athletes and gambling. It has now turned to policing mechanisms to solve these challenges—criminalizing doping and focusing on the supply chain rather the end user.

42612. Banking on Legitimacy The ECB and the Euro Zone Crisis

Author:: Kathleen McNamara
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: During the euro zone crisis of 2008-2009, the European Central Bank was held responsible for maintaining economic stability throughout the EU, without necessary support from political institutions. Several policy reforms are needed within the EU and the European Commission itself to prepare Europe for internal and external economic shocks in the future.
Political Geography:: Europe

42613. Playing Hard to Get

Author:: Minxin Pei
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Political divisions within Europe and domestic considerations within China have prevented China from providing substantial financial aid to Europe during its ongoing debt crisis, and are likely to prohibit it from doing so in the foreseeable future.
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

42614. Mobile Phones: Challenges of Capability Building

Author:: Robin Mansell
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: While use of mobile phones has been increasing in developing countries, the capabilities of using this technology to its full potential have lagged. If fully developed, such capabilities would strengthen the potential for profiting from mobile networks and for coordinating wealth-generating activities in developing countries.

42615. Missing Links: Crime-Prevention, IT, and the Case for Trilateral Collaboration

Author:: Jeffrey Avina
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Public-private partnerships on crime prevention have not truly affected sustained global change. Championing academia as the operational panacea, a proposed four-step program targeting IT firms and other viable partners seeks to streamline corporate social responsibility-related endeavors.

42616. Whither Arab Awakening?

Author:: Joshua W. Walker
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: A review of The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East by Kenneth M. Pollack and others.
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Arabia

42617. Engaging with Youth, Engaging with War

Author:: Helen Brocklehurst
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Youth and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Agents of Change has been written with great precision, focus, and clarity. It is short but powerful, much like the lives and experiences it documents. As such it makes an extremely erudite and important contribution to our understanding of the role that youth can play in countries emerging from conflict.
Topic:: War

42618. Business and Knowledge Opportunities for Africa's Rise

Author:: Uzoechi Nwagbara
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Fareed Zakaria's insightful and fascinating book, The Post-American World (2008) deals with the gradual demise of America's power and global dominance and the consequent rise of marginal or regional powers, which include Africa. Zakaria's hypothesis about the ''post- American world'' resides principally in America's weakening domestic and international prowess associated with her fighting prolonged wars in recent time, dwindling manufacturing scale, weakening domestic economy and the rise of Asian Tigers as well as China. This postulation also deals with the gradual manifestation of periphery countries' potential or ability to lead the global economy with their natural endowments, rapid wave of industrialisation in regional economies and the impact of globalization, which has significantly shifted global power loci, by taking jobs away from the United States through foreign direct investment (FDI). More than all of this, Zakaria's '' post-American world'' thesis has brought to the fore an unprecedented way of re-thinking development of Africa's resources (human capital) given the pressures of this phenomenon in determining growth in the contemporary global power equation.
Political Geography:: Africa, China, America, and Asia

42619. Artificial Intelligence Reform Social Amnesia and the Intelligence Community

Author:: Paul R. Pillar
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Examining the organizational and methodological restructurings of the last few decades, a twenty-eight year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency and National Intelligence Council explains to those calling for intelligence reform why they might be suffering from a case of intelligence déjà vu.

42620. My Time on the Line Examining the Afghan–Pakistan Border as a Factor in Counterinsurgency

Author:: Robert Kemp
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: A Foreign Service Officer looks back on the lessons learned from his time posted on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area between 2004 and 2009. Continued international assistance will be necessary to sustain the border-area's fragile ecosystem as troop levels are reduced.
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

42621. Fighting a Pandemic: The World's Effort to Control Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

Author:: Alex Bozzette
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: "Sitienes el dinero, puedas hacer maravillas." If you have the money, you can do wonders. Those were some of the first words Dr. Clara Friele, coordinator of Ecuador's National Tuberculosis (TB) Control Program, said to me last summer. The disease she and so many others are fighting is fully curable. It has been documented for millennia-recorded in the bones of Egyptian mummies, the pages of the Hindu Vedas, and the scenes of countless films, plays, and operas (from Tombstone to La Traviata).TB claimed 1.4 million lives in 2010 and is the leading killer of people with AIDS. It infects the lungs before spreading throughout the body and, if untreated, kills almost two-thirds of those with the severe active disease. Supported by a generous travel-study grant, I spent June through August 2011 in South America, East Africa, and Southeast Asia learning from those who fight this TB pandemic firsthand.
Political Geography:: Africa, South America, Egypt, and Southeast Asia

42622. Kazakhstan's New Capital Its Importance and Implications

Author:: Dena Sholk
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: When I arrived in Astana at 7:30 AM, still half-asleep, on a rainy August morning, I was relieved to have survived the train ride. Three weeks earlier, I had visited Turkestan, a city in southern Kazakhstan that is home to the mausoleum of Sufi scholar Ahmed Yasawi. The Almaty-Turkestan train lasted some twenty-two hours. I shared a four-person sleeping compartment with my travel companion Roberto and two Kazakh men, a retired eighty-nine-year-old school principal from Turkestan and a forty-year-old Kazakh from Shymkent, another southern city. When the Shymkent gentleman entered the cabin, he was wearing a pistol on his belt to "scare people." Fortunately, he removed the belt at night.
Political Geography:: Turkey and Kazakhstan

42623. Securing the Olympic City

Author:: Christopher Gaffney
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: In anticipation of the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Olympics, the implementation of Police Pacification Units (UPP) in select favelas of Rio de Janeiro has transformed the city's security dynamics. Is this security effort bringing benefits for some at the expense of others?
Topic:: Security

42624. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:: Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

42625. Political Economy and Conflict Dimensions of Afghanistan's Mineral Resources: A Preliminary Exploration

Author:: William Byrd
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan has sizable underground mineral resources, which have potential positive economic impacts but also possible downsides—the so-called “resource curse” often involving negative macroeconomic, developmental, fiscal, governance, political and conflict effects. The success of the broader political transition in coming years as well as regional geopolitical factors will have a major influence on prospects for Afghanistan's underground resources. For “mega-resources” such as the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron deposits, the Afghan government has conducted credible tendering to ensure that contracts with foreign companies are on favorable terms for Afghanistan. Good-practice approaches for mega-resources should continue and be further strengthened, but there will probably be further delays in exploitation, and realization of potential will take much time. Exploitation of other largish and medium-sized resources may involve joint ventures with politically-connected Afghan firms and deals with local strongmen, or sometimes criminal networks with linkages to corrupt officials and insurgents. Spreading patronage can reduce short-run conflict risks, but there are risks of corruption, and conflicts could arise over time. For these resources, priorities include transparent contracting and clarity about ownership of companies; setting basic financial parameters for different resources (e.g. royalty rates) to reduce the risk of overly favorable arrangements for extracting entities; and addressing criminal elements and associated corruption. For smaller, concentrated, high-value resources (notably gemstones), informal exploitation using crude techniques is typically combined with illicit export trade, and local strongmen are involved, which can mean periods of stability but also conflicts when bargains are reopened or new actors get involved. The way forward for these resources includes gradually improving and regularizing the framework; setting low royalty rates to encourage formalization of existing activities rather than leasing resources to outsiders; technical assistance to promote more effective extraction; and encouraging processing and value addition within Afghanistan. Finally, further analytical work is required to better understand the political economy and conflict ramifications of mining in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

42626. A Diplomatic Milestone for Mindanao?

Author:: Jennifer M. Keister
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: A recent framework agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leaves much yet to do in building peace in Mindanao, but does offer an opportunity for careful progress. Many of the problems that have plagued previous agreements in Mindanao's 40-year conflict still exist. The international community has an opportunity to support progress and avoid a repeat of previous agreements' disappointments. Careful foreign aid policies that empower locals and do not foster competition can be critical in building peace in Mindanao.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Israel and Philippines

42627. Enabling Agricultural Extension for Peacebuilding

Author:: Andrew Robertson
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: For many of the one and half billion people living in fragile states, violent conflict is the principal impediment to development, disrupting food production and destroying agricultural investments. Extension systems have improved agricultural productivity, profitability, and sustainability by providing technical and commercial information that changes farmer practice and could help farming communities struggling to deal with the consequences of war. Extension systems are, however, under substantial pressure, and most national budgets for extension are in long-term decline. Given such pressures, managers of extension systems will likely insist they are hard pressed to develop the competencies needed to support sustainable growth in agriculture, let alone accept additional responsibilities for peacebuilding. Decentralized, participatory market-driven extension systems have been successful in augmenting farmer capabilities with additional competencies, such as financial and market knowledge. Offering access to expertise (rather than expertise itself), agents in decentralized systems can respond quickly and effectively to varied farmer needs. Agents could use these same approaches to connect farmers to the experts and resources they need to manage conflict in their communities. Information technology can provide the capacity to match agricultural and conflict management expertise to farmer need. It can improve the reach and productivity of extension agents as it reduces the risk of inappropriate use of system resources. Training and technical support are necessary to improve transparency and accountability.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Markets, Post Colonialism, and Fragile/Failed State

42628. Peacebuilding Efforts of Women from Afghanistan and Iraq: Lessons in Transition

Author:: Kathleen Kuehnast, Hodei Sultan, Manal Omar, and Steven E. Steiner
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In transitioning countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, women are increasingly finding their rights limited by state and religious leaders. Cultural and national stereotypes can be quickly overcome by the shared backgrounds, accomplishments, obstacles, and aspirations of women in transitioning countries. Women living in countries in transition value opportunities to network with women from other countries in similar situations. Women leaders from Afghanistan and Iraq have genuine concerns about the challenges facing women in the Arab Spring. Their valuable opinions are based on their own experiences of overcoming those challenges. It is essential that women work together and with men to further women's rights. Women must plan for a transition before it happens and have a strategy of work going into the transition process. Laws empowering and protecting women do not work if they are not enforced. International donors need a long-term view of women's programming, as much of the required work will take time. Donors should consider nonurban areas when working with women, and when possible nonelite partners, as these leaders understand the limitations of local conditions. It is possible for women's groups to find common ground with religious leaders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

42629. Europe Beyond Aid: Assessing Europe's Commitment to Development

Author:: David Roodman, Owen Barder, Julia Clark, Alice Lépissier, and Liza Reynolds
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: European countries pride themselves on being leaders in spurring development within poor countries. We find that Europe's approach to development could be characterised as energetically tackling the symptoms of poor economic opportunities for developing countries by providing effective aid, while doing relatively little to tackle the underlying structural causes of poverty. We use the Center for Global Development Commitment to Development Index (CDI) as a tool to examine Europe's performance overall. We combine the scores for the twenty-one European countries which are included in the 2012 edition of the Commitment to Development Index to calculate the single score they would have obtained if they had been a single country. This represents the combined commitment to development of these countries, by giving appropriate weight to the larger, more populous countries in Europe, which tend to have less development-friendly policies than the Nordic countries and the Netherlands. Our calculations show that compared to the other countries in the CDI, Europe as a whole performs better than most CDI countries on aid and environment, but less well in other dimensions such as trade and security. This paper provides the background to a series of more detailed studies of the policies of European countries, individually and collectively through the European Union, in each dimension of the CDI, which the Center for Global Development in Europe is coordinating.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Europe

42630. Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination instead of separation

Author:: Daniel Gros and Thorsten Beck
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The June 2012 European Council decided that the legal basis for the 'Single Supervisory Mechanism' should be Article 127(6) of the Treaty, and that the SSM should 'involve' the ECB. This implies only that supervision should be concentrated within the ECB. In the policy discussion it is, however, generally taken for granted that there should be 'Chinese walls' between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal is explicit on this account.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Europe

42631. Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup of official assets—mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets—keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year as a result. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs due to this foreign currency manipulation.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: United States

42632. Europe's Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Long Journey Towards Banking Union

Author:: Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On June 29, 2012, the heads of state and government of the 17 euro area countries issued a landmark statement that started with the sentences “We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. The Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 127(6) for a single supervisory mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB [European Central Bank] for banks in the euro area the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly” (Euro Area Summit Statement 2012). This statement was received by the investor community and the European public as marking the initial step towards a European banking union, i.e., a shift of the key instruments of banking policy from the national to the European level to enable the formation and maintenance of an integrated European banking system.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

42633. Southern Europe Ignores Lessons from Latvia at Its Peril

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In the current financial crisis plaguing Europe, Latvia stands out for resolving its financial problems quickly and resolutely. After contracting 24 percent in 2008 and 2009, it grew at the rate of 5.5 percent in 2011. The speed and determination. with which the government carried out austerity measures in 2009 and restored confidence after suffering the worst output decline is a crucial lesson for the ailing South European countries—Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Many policy observers and economists have dismissed Latvia's crisis resolution as irrelevant to the situation in Southern Europe. The Latvian orange, they say, cannot be compared with the South European apples. I argue otherwise.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Latvia

42634. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: Policy Implications

Author:: Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), currently at an advanced stage of negotiation, began as a small agreement but now has big implications. The TPP would strengthen ties between Asia and the Americas, create a new template for the conduct of international trade and investment, and potentially lead to a comprehensive free trade area (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific. It could generate large benefits—greater than those expected from the World Trade Organization's (WTO) global Doha Development Agenda. This Policy Brief reports on our ongoing quantitative assessment (with FanZhai) of the TPP and other Asia-Pacific integration efforts.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: America, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

42635. Restoring Fiscal Equilibrium in the United States

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Halfway through this presidential election year, there is great uncertainty about how, when, and even whether the United States will restore fiscal sustainability. As shown by the near-default because of the impasse over the debt ceiling in July 2011, the two parties have been in sharp opposition on this issue. The Republicans have insisted that adjustment be accomplished by spending cuts rather than tax increases. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican congressmen and 41 Republican senators have signed the Grover Norquist pledge to oppose any attempt to raise marginal tax rates or reduce deductions without implementing offsetting tax reductions. In contrast, Democratic lawmakers have tended to emphasize the maintenance of social and entitlement programs and expressed a willingness to restore higher tax rates if necessary.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Law
Political Geography:: United States

42636. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2012

Author:: William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This Policy Brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data. For exchange rates, we apply the average rates of April 2012, while for the International Monetary Fund's balance of payments forecasts, we use the April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook (henceforth WEO; see IMF 2012a). This study is the fifth in an annual series, begun in 2008, in which we have used the spring WEO as the basis for drawing out implications for exchange rate changes needed if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. In addition, in semiannual updates (most recently in November 2011), we have tracked interim changes in exchange rates but not reestimated the underlying FEERs for the year in question.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis

42637. Right Idea, Wrong Direction: Obama's Corporate Tax Reform Proposals

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The need for US corporate tax reform is blindingly obvious. Conservatives contend that the top corporate tax rate— whether measured in statutory or effective terms—is the second highest in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Liberals argue that the US corporate tax system is riddled with complex “loopholes,” enabling many firms—whether incorporated or not—to pay less than their fair share.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States

42638. Japan Post: Anti-Reform Law Clouds Japan's Entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Our last policy brief on this long-running saga recounted political machinations, late in 2011, to reverse the Koizumi era reforms of Japan Post, a giant among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). As a brief background: Japan Post is a conglomerate of five companies: the parent, Japan Post Holdings; two subsidiaries concerned with operating post offices and delivering mail, namely Japan Post Network and Japan Post Services; and two giant financial arms, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Law
Political Geography:: Japan and Israel

42639. Will the World Trade Organization Enjoy a Bright Future?

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Our answer is a resounding “yes.” This answer does not rest simply on the World Trade Organization's proven competence as a judicial body nor its acknowledged expertise in gathering statistics and analyzing trends. Crowning these strengths, we see the dawn of a new era of trade and investment negotiations within the halls of the WTO.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization

42640. Framework for the International Services Agreement

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Services trade continues to be the most dynamic part of world trade, and service sectors have long been the largest destination of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Higher GDP growth goes hand-in-hand with service sector growth. Yet, despite these positive attributes, little progress has been achieved in multilateral talks to liberalize services trade and investment. There is something very wrong about this picture—the disjuncture between stalled service negotiations in Geneva, the excessive focus on other components of the Doha Round to the neglect of services, and the rapid expansion of services trade and investment across borders. The time has come for an International Services Agreement (ISA) in which self-selected World Trade Organization (WTO) members voluntarily agree to new rules and market access commitments. The ISA would be distinct from a multilateral undertaking, like the Doha Round, that must gain the consent of all WTO members. Instead, it would be akin to the Agreement on Government Procurement, in which the market access benefits are confined to the agreement's members, but the agreement itself is open to all WTO members that are willing to accept its disciplines and commitments.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and World Trade Organization

42641. US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In his 2012 State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that "over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires." The tire tariff case, decided by the president in September 2009, exemplifies his efforts to get China to "play by the rules" and serves as a plank in his larger platform of insourcing jobs to America.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and America

42642. Does Monetary Cooperation or Confrontation Lead to Successful Fiscal Consolidation?

Author:: Adam S. Posen, Tomas Hellebrandt, and Marilyne Tolle
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Active accommodation of fiscal consolidations by monetary policy is controversial, as can be seen in current euro area discussions. While many observers acknowledge that there is usually a place for monetary accommodation in response to fiscal consolidation, a sequencing argument is often heard today that fiscal commitment must precede any loosening. Some analysts go further to suggest that toughness by central banks taking a hard line on adjustment is critical to inducing sustained fiscal stabilization. This policy brief looks at the recent historical record of central bank behavior vis-à-vis fiscal authorities, at least until the current crisis period, and whether accommodative approaches ahead of consolidations have proven dangerous or helpful. The authors also try to assess the market credibility of fiscal consolidations as a function of the central banks' monetary stance prior to fiscal consolidation. They find clear evidence of positive associations between the degree of monetary ease in advance of fiscal consolidation programs and both those programs' success and their market credibility.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance

42643. Projecting China's Current Account Surplus

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Israel

42644. Overlooked Opportunity: Tradable Business Services, Developing Asia, and Growth

Author:: J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper argues that developing Asia is overlooking an opportunity for increased growth and development through trade in business services. Developing Asia would benefit from liberalizing services trade as it has benefited from liberalizing goods trade. This argument rests on these key findings: business services are important for growth, developing Asia is relatively under-endowed with business services, many business services are tradable, and developing Asia has relatively high barriers to services trade.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Israel and Asia

42645. Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences of QE after Financial Crises

Author:: Samuel Reynard
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Financial crises have been followed by different inflation paths which are related to monetary policy and money creation by the banking sector during those crises. Accounting for equilibrium changes and non-linearity issues, the empirical relationship between money and subsequent inflation developments has remained stable and similar in crisis and normal times. This analysis can explain why the financial crisis in Argentina in the early 2000s was followed by increasing inflation, whereas Japan experienced deflation in the 1990s and 2000s despite quantitative easing. Current quantitative easing policies should lead to increasing and persistent inflation over the next years.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America

42646. The Services Sector in Asia: Is It an Engine of Growth?

Author:: Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The underdeveloped services sector in Asia has the potential to become a new engine of economic growth in developing Asia, which has traditionally relied on export-oriented manufacturing to power its growth. In this paper, Park and Shin empirically analyze the prospects for the services sector in Asia. Their analysis of 12 Asian countries indicates that the services sector has already contributed substantially to the region's growth in the past. Somewhat surprisingly, in light of the difficulty of achieving productivity gains in services, they also find that services labor productivity grew at a healthy pace in much of the region. Overall their analysis provides substantial cause for optimism about the role of the services sector as an engine of growth in Asia. However, they caution that some Asian countries where the services sector is currently struggling, such as Korea and Thailand, will find it more challenging to develop the sector.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Asia

42647. Performance of the Services Sector in Korea: An Empirical Investigation

Author:: Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: There is a widespread perception that Korea's services sector lags behind its dynamic world-class manufacturing sector. This paper empirically analyzes the past performance of Korea's services sector in order to assess its prospects as an engine of growth. The analysis resoundingly confirms the conventional wisdom of an underperforming service sector. In light of Korea's high income and development level, the poor performance of modern services is of particular concern. The authors identify a number of factors underlying the poor performance and set forth policy recommendations for addressing them. Overall, Korea faces a challenging but navigable road ahead in developing a high value-added services sector.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Israel and Korea

42648. The Renminbi Bloc Is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: A country's rise to economic dominance tends to be accompanied by its currency becoming a reference point, with other currencies tracking it implicitly or explicitly. For a sample comprising emerging market economies, we show that in the last two years, the renminbi has increasingly become a reference currency which we define as one which exhibits a high degree of co-movement (CMC) with other currencies. In East Asia, there is already a renminbi bloc, because the renminbi has become the dominant reference currency, eclipsing the dollar, which is a historic development. In this region, 7 currencies out of 10 co-move more closely with the renminbi than with the dollar, with the average value of the CMC relative to the renminbi being 40 percent greater than that for the dollar. We find that co-movements with a reference currency, especially for the renminbi, are associated with trade integration. We draw some lessons for the prospects for the renminbi bloc to move beyond Asia based on a comparison of the renminbi's situation today and that of the Japanese yen in the early 1990s. If trade were the sole driver, a more global renminbi bloc could emerge by the mid-2030s but complementary reforms of the financial and external sector could considerably expedite the process.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

42649. Developing the Services Sector as Engine of Growth for Asia: An Overview

Author:: Marcus Noland and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The maturing of the manufacturing sector in many Asian countries, combined with the relative backwardness of its services sector, has made services sector development a top priority for developing Asia. The authors' central objective is to broadly survey and analyze the current landscape of the region's services sector so as to assess its potential to serve as an engine for inclusive economic growth. Their analysis indicates that services are already an important source of output, growth, and jobs in the region. However, its productivity greatly lags that of the advanced economies, which implies ample room for further growth. The impact of the services sector on poverty reduction is less clear but the authors do find some limited evidence of a poverty reduction effect. One key challenge for all Asian countries is to improve the quality of services sector data. Overall, while services sector development is a long and challenging process, creating more competitive services markets by removing a wide range of internal and external policy distortions is vital for improving services sector productivity. As important as such policy reforms are, complementary investments in physical infrastructure and human capital will also be necessary to achieve a strong services sector.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Israel and Asia

42650. Prospects for Services Trade Negotiations

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott, Julia Muir, and Minsoo Lee
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Trade and investment in services are difficult to measure, and the regulatory barriers that inhibit the free flow of services are hard to quantify. As a result, very little attention has been paid to dismantling barriers to services trade and investment. Rather, free trade negotiations tend to focus on liberalizing merchandise trade. This paper examines what has been achieved in both regional and multilateral compacts by surveying international precedents involving Asian countries in which services reforms have been included in bilateral and regional trade pacts. The authors then assess the prospects for services trade negotiations and explore how services trade negotiations could be pursued over the next decade through two distinct channels: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and a plurilateral approach among groups of WTO countries. The authors find that in the case of developing Asia, free trade agreements have largely excluded services or have only committed to "lock in" current practices in a narrow subset of service sectors. This is also the case in agreements negotiated between developing countries, which have produced less substantial commitments to liberalize services than those negotiated between developing and developed countries. Multilateral negotiations on services have also underperformed, as substantive negotiations on services in the Doha Round never really got underway. To that end, the authors advocate a stronger effort by developing Asian countries to prioritize services negotiations in their regional arrangements and to expand coverage of services in those pacts to a broad range of infrastructure services that are included in other FTAs in force or under construction in the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Asia

42651. Transactions: A New Look at Services Sector Foreign Direct Investment in Asia

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In this paper Kirkegaard presents new micro-level data consisting of individual greenfield investment projects and mergers and acquisitions as a source for detailed analysis of services sector cross-border investment flows among the Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional membership in Asia. The new transactional foreign direct investment (FDI) data are methodologically distinct from traditional BPM5-compliant FDI data but found to yield generally comparable aggregates, when compared with the latest available International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from the Comprehensive Direct Investment Survey for the ADB regional membership. The services sectors are found to receive considerably larger amounts of foreign investment, when compared with the Asian region's manufacturing and raw materials sectors. OECD countries account for roughly three-quarters of total recorded inward services sector FDI of about $2 trillion, relatively evenly split between the United States, the EU-27, and regional OECD-level-income countries. The presence of sizable regional "upward flowing" services sector investments into OECD-level-income economies is verified. Kirkegaard draws preliminary policy conclusions based on the new transactional FDI data results concerning prospects for regional services sector liberalization, threshold income levels for inward services sector FDI, upward-flowing regional services FDI, and preferred modes of services sector investments.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and Asia

42652. Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:: C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries since the initial shift by China to a controlled appreciation in July 2005, testing econometrically the weights of key currencies in the implicit baskets that appear to be targeted by East Asian monetary authorities. It finds, first, that Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines have formed a loose but effective “renminbi bloc” with China, and that South Korea has participated tentatively since the global financial crisis. Second, the emergence of the renminbi bloc in terms of the exchange rate has been facilitated by the continued dominance of the US dollar as a trade, investment, and reserve currency. Third, exchange rate stabilization is explained by the economic strategies of these countries, which rely heavily on export development and financial repression, and the economic rise of China. Fourth, analysts should specify the exchange rate preferences of these emerging market countries carefully before drawing inferences about Chinese influence within the region.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

42653. Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate

Author:: Olivier Jeanne
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper presents a simple model of how a small open economy can undervalue its real exchange rate using its capital account policies. The paper presents several properties of such policies, and proposes a rule of thumb to assess their welfare cost. The model is applied to an analysis of Chinese capital account policies.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

42654. John Williamson and the Evolution of the International Monetary System

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Throughout his brilliant career, John Williamson has frequently focused his considerable analytical skills and powers of persuasion on reform of the international monetary system. This paper examines two principal areas of his concern: (1) exchange rates and the adjustment process, and (2) international liquidity, seigniorage, and the stability of the system. With respect to exchange rates, I find that there has been a moderate reduction in variability, but over the past 40 years external imbalances have, if anything, worsened. The adjustment process has malfunctioned. With respect to international liquidity, reserves have expanded rapidly, but their expansion has been demand-determined, has not involved a remonetization of gold or an increase in inflation. I find that concerns about the size and maldistribution of seigniorage are misplaced. Moreover, we are seeing a steady evolution toward a multicurrency international monetary and financial system. However, reserve diversification does not appear to have adversely affected exchange rate volatility to date. I conclude that the principal benefits of the Bretton Woods international monetary system remain and the principal weaknesses remain. But the system is evolving. It could be improved with respect to the adjustment process and the role of the International Monetary Fund as the international lender of last resort.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

42655. Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Italy and Spain: A Probabilistic Approach

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper introduces a new probabilistic approach to sovereign debt projections and presents new estimates of debt ratios through 2020 for Italy and Spain. The new approach takes account of likely correlations across 243 alternative scenarios with three states (good, baseline, bad) for five key variables (growth, interest rate, primary surplus, bank recapitalization, and privatization). The 25th and 75th percentile scenarios are reported, as are the baseline and probability-weighted outcomes. The results suggest sovereign debt is sustainable in both Italy (where debt ratios are likely to decline because of a high primary surplus) and Spain (where the ratios rise but at a decelerating pace and from relatively low levels).
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Spain and Italy

42656. Gender in Transition: The Case of North Korea

Author:: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper uses a survey of 300 North Korean refugees to examine the experience of women in North Korea's fitful economic transition. Like other socialist states, North Korea has maintained a de jure commitment to women's rights. However, the authors find that women have been disproportionately shed from state-affiliated employment and thrust into a market environment characterized by weak institutions and corruption. As a result, the state and its affiliated institutions are increasingly populated by males, and the market, particularly in its retail aspects, is dominated by women. Among the most recent cohort of refugees to leave North Korea, more than one-third of male respondents indicate that criminality and corruption is the best way to make money, and 95 percent of female traders report paying bribes to avoid the penal system. In short, the increasingly male-dominated state preys on the increasingly female-dominated market. These results paint a picture of a vulnerable group that has been disadvantaged in North Korea's transition. Energies are directed toward survival, mass civil disobedience is reactive, and as a group, this population appears to lack the tools or social capital to act collectively to improve their status.
Topic:: Corruption, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:: Israel and North Korea

42657. The Dollar and Its Discontents

Author:: Olivier Jeanne
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Has the US dollar delivered the benefit that the rest of the world is expecting from its holdings of international liquidity? US government debt has been liquid and safe, and it is supplied in sufficient quantity. But it has given a low return to the countries that accumulated the most reserves, especially when those returns are measured in terms of the countries' own consumption. Jeanne argues that countries that accumulate the most reserves should expect a low return in terms of their own consumption and that international monetary reform can do little to change that fact.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States

42658. The Microeconomics of North–South Korean Cross-Border Integration

Author:: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Economic integration between North and South Korea occurs through three modalities: traditional arm's-length trade and investment, processing on commission (POC) trade, and operations within the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). In order, these three modalities are characterized by decreasing exposure of South Korean firms to North Korean policy and infrastructure. Through a survey of 200 South Korean firms operating in North Korea, the authors find that these modalities of exchange matter greatly in terms of implied risk. For example, firms operating in the KIC are able to transact on significantly looser financial terms than those outside it. The authors find that direct and indirect South Korean public policy interventions influence these different modalities of exchange and thus impact entry, profitability, and sustainability of South Korean business activities in the North. In effect, the South Korean government has substituted relatively strong South Korean institutions for the relatively weak Northern ones in the KIC, thus socializing risk. As a result, the level and type of cross-border integration observed in the survey is very much a product of South Korean public policy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: South Korea and North Korea

42659. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration

Author:: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and North Korea

42660. Lessons from Reforms in Central and Eastern Europe in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The response of the ten new eastern members of the European Union to the global financial crisis has valuable lessons of crisis resolution for the euro area. These countries were severely hit by the crisis in the fall of 2008 and responded with extensive reforms. Crisis made the unthinkable possible. This paper outlines the main reform measures that the ten Central and East European (CEE) countries carried out. It then quantifies to what extent the CEE countries resolved the macroeconomic crisis and explores the effects of the reforms on future growth prospects. The fourth and major section discusses how the political economy of the crisis resolution actually worked. Finally, the author examines what lessons euro area countries can learn from the crisis resolution of the newest members of the European Union.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

42661. A China – US bilateral investment treaty: A template for a multilateral framework for investment?

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant and Huiping Chen
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China is the largest foreign direct investment (FDI) host and home country among emerging markets, the United States among developed countries. As host countries, both seek to maintain policy space to pursue their own legitimate public policy objectives; as home countries, both seek to protect their investors' outward FDI. The development of their bilateral investment treaties (BITs) over the past decade reflects this: Chinese BITs have become more protective of investors, US ones more respectful of host country interests. If agreement is reached between both, it would provide a template for future investment agreements.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Treaties and Agreements, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States and China

42662. Inward foreign direct investment: Does it enable or constrain domestic technology entrepreneurship?

Author:: Saurav Pathak, André Laplume, and Emanuel Xavier-Oliveira
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Whether or not foreign direct investment (FDI) is essential for domestic technological and economic development remains a contentious question. The controversy is illustrated by comparing the Celtic and Asian Tigers experiences from 1995 to 2000. Based on IMF and World Bank data in constant prices, Ireland and China averaged an annual growth rate of 8% in GDP per capita. However, FDI per capita grew at an average pace of 98% per year in Ireland, while in China it decreased by 1% -- absolute values averaged US$ 3,397 versus US$ 144, respectively. This suggests that, rather than a one-policy-fits-all approach, customized policies are more appropriate; and, if any generalization can be made, it should be based on a country's stage of economic development.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Israel and Asia

42663. Untying the land knot: Turning investment challenges into opportunities for all citizens

Author:: Xiaofang Shen
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China, 1980s. Newly embarked on its economic transformation, China opened to foreign direct investment (FDI) to obtain capital, technology and access to world markets. Investors hesitated, however, since national law prohibited access to state-owned land. In reaction, the government introduced a long-term lease system, first tested in special economic zones and later applied across the country. This approach enabled China's phenomenal success in attracting FDI in the years to come; it also paved the way for 500 million urban citizens to gain property rights, which in turn inspired the rural population to ask for the same rights today.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

42664. Evaluate Sustainable FDI to Promote Sustainable Development

Author:: John M. Kline
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Prescriptions to increase the role of FDI in promoting sustainable development generally focus on the macro level -- getting policies right and otherwise improving the investment climate. These steps are necessary but not sufficient. Effective implementation processes, especially at the micro project level, are also essential to encourage FDI that matches host country development needs and priorities.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

42665. Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict

Author:: Alexander De Juan
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The rationale is straightforward and persuasive: intrastate conflicts are by definition subnational phenomena. If we want to understand them fully, it may be wise to refocus our attention from the country level to the subnational level. Where violence is located might inform us as to why it erupts and how it is linked to various political, economic or social factors. The number of statistical geospatial analyses undertaken at the subnational level has been increasing constantly in recent years. Even though such studies have contributed greatly to peace and conflict research, they have come with their own challenges. Most importantly, they often do not adequately consider the theoretical and conceptual implications of switching from conventional cross‐country to subnational analysis; this has led to dubious theoretical arguments and conclusions. Moreover, operationalization and measurement issues often limit these analyses' explanatory power. The paper reviews several geospatial analyses of violent conflict, points out the limitations of the previous research and proposes some potential avenues for improvement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Political Violence, Economics, and War

42666. Subjective Risk and Participation in Micro Life Insurance in Ghana

Author:: Lena Giesbert
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the determinants of households' decisions to purchase micro life insurance, the most common but least investigated type of microinsurance. It uses household survey data collected in southern Ghana in 2009. Insurance participation and extent of coverage are examined against a standard benchmark model, which argues that life insurance uptake increases with risk aversion, the probability of risk, initial wealth, and the “intensity for bequests.” Many of these predictions indeed hold in the case of micro life insurance. However, the results of probit and tobit models show that nonstandard factors also explain the participation decision. Unlike the case with other available types of insurance, there is a significant negative association between households' subjective idiosyncratic risk perception and the uptake of micro life insurance. Additionally, households' micro life insurance participation is strongly related to their relationships with formal financial services providers and their membership in social networks. These findings suggest that poorer households view microinsurance as a risky option.
Topic:: Health, Poverty, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

42667. China Reinterprets the Liberal Peace

Author:: Silvia Menegazzi
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China's assertiveness is growing. While in the past China's foreign policy kept a low profile in international affairs, global developments, prime amongst which in the Middle East, highlight China's growing influence in world politics and its ensuing role in shaping global norms. Within the liberal peace discourse, China's reinterpretation of international norms can be seen as the result of a mixture of prior local norms - sovereignty and non-interference - and changes within the international environment - namely conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East. Particularly, in terms of intervention and peace-building practices, China insists that a number of preconditions - which are encapsulated in the notion of Responsible Protection (RP) - have to be met in order to consider intervention in sovereign states. This paper argues that in order to achieve a full picture of Chinese foreign policy and its normative underpinnings, it is necessary to explore the debate within non-state actors beyond the government apparatus, such as think tanks and research institutions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Emerging Markets, International Affairs, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

42668. Transatlantic cybersecurity: The only winning move is to play with others

Author:: Charly Salonius-Pasternak and Jarno limnéll
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Cybersecurity concerns everyone, and is everyone's responsibility. It is a genuine example of a society-wide security issue. The United States is ahead of Europe in discussing and integrating (military) cybersecurity into its foreign and security policies. For the US, the biggest challenges at the moment are: updating legal frameworks, creating cyber rules of engagement for the military, building cyber deterrence and clarifying the cybersecurity roles and responsibilities of government and private sector actors. Cooperation at national and international levels is integral to improving cybersecurity. This includes updating international and domestic legal frameworks to ensure that state actions are accountable, and to protect citizens from wanton strikes at critical infrastructure. Governments must hold private sector partners accountable, and through partnerships ensure that societal cybersecurity is not overshadowed by private interests – public-private partnerships have a crucial role to play in this.
Topic:: Security, Government, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

42669. Building on Complimentary Assets in a Unified TCP/IP World

Author:: Martin Kenney and Timo Seppälä
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: The contemporary competition in the smartphone industry is an ideal setting for studying Schumpeterian creative destruction, the role of the complementary assets, and the strategic use of technology platforms. This current creative destruction is particularly interesting because the current convergence from previously separate industries is pitting firms with differing business models from the old telecommunications world against the operating system winners of the old personal computer, and competitors from the new internet world. This paper utilizes insights from the literature on complementary assets and technology platforms to understand the completion in smartphones. This paper contributes a broadened understanding of the contemporary industry convergence occurring with Internet and cloud computing at its unifying center, and with intelligent communications devices at its edges. Furthermore, this paper extends the current academic discussion of the changes in the mobile telecommunications industry to consider the possibility that cloud computing will integrate a plethora of new devices that will include personal computers, smartphones, the internet-enabled television, and a nearly infinite number of other devices that will provide data to the cloud.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Science and Technology

42670. Public procurement and organized crime – illustrated with examples from Bulgaria, Italy and Norway

Author:: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The paper provides a semi-popular exposition of the formulation of public procurement and privatization mechanisms and how they may be influenced by organized crime units. A number of possibilities are outlined using examples from Bulgaria, Italy and Norway.
Topic:: Civil Society, Crime, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Europe, Norway, Bulgaria, and Italy

42671. Innovative and absorptive capacity effects of education in a small, open economy

Author:: Taran Fæhn and Brita Bye
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Evidence points to relatively low supply elasticities for workers skilled for research and development (R), which can hamper innovation and growth. Increasing the supply of R skills will expand an economy's innovative capacity. A simultaneous effect of increased education, which is particularly important for small, open economies, is to raise final goods producers' capacity to absorb cross-border knowledge spillovers. In a calibrated endogenous growth model for Norway, we find that increasing the share of highly educated workers has pronounced absorptive capacity effects that partially crowd out R innovation. Both innovative and absorptive capacity expansions contribute to higher growth and welfare.
Topic:: Development, Education, Human Welfare, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Europe

42672. Revising COIN: The Stakeholder Centric Approach

Author:: Karsten Friis, Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud, and Harald Håvoll
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With the apparent lack of progress and success in Afghanistan, counter- insurgency (COIN), both as a theory and practice, is falling out of favor within the political and military establishment in the US. This comes at a time when the US is redirecting its geopolitical focus away from global instability towards the Asia-Pacific and the 'New Great Power Game'.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Australia/Pacific

42673. Financial markets in GCC countries: recent crises and structural weaknesses

Author:: Steffen Hertog
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries' financial sectors are solid, but not very sophisticated: business is mostly financed through bank lending rather than bonds or stock issues, and banks continue to rely on state support and, in many cases, are directly state owned.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

42674. Foreign labour and labour migration in the small GCC states

Author:: Andrew Gardner
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Although large-scale migration to the Arabian Peninsula is often framed as a new or novel situation, an examination of historical accounts reveals cities, ports and peoples intricately connected with the greater Indian Ocean world for more than a millennium. For much of the past century, however, migration to the region has been organised through the kafala , or sponsorship system, which is almost ubiquitously posited as the causal force behind current labour-related problems. The right to work in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states has been globally commodified, and low-skilled workers often pay $2,000 or more for the right to work in Arabia for a year or more. Low-skilled workers in the GCC states are best conceptualised as emissaries of a larger household livelihood and investment strategy. Living quarters for such workers in Arabia are often substandard, and the enforcement of existing laws, regulations and policies is often poor to inadequate. Youthful and worldly local populations have a demonstrably different attitude to labour rights and issues than their predecessors and elders, and these growing trends should be broadly supported through policy planning in the region. The enforcement of existing regulations and labour laws should also be supported where possible. Finally, the overall number of international organisations now focused on labour rights in Arabia provides ample opportunity for policy planners to seek collaborative relationships that might strategically yield significant benefits.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, Migration, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

42675. Human rights in the smaller Gulf states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE

Author:: Joe Stork
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Human rights conditions in the five smaller Gulf states are quite poor overall. Political and economic power is the monopoly of hereditary ruling families. There is little respect for core civil and political rights such as freedom of expression, assembly and association. Peaceful dissent typically faces harsh repression. The administration of justice is highly personalised, with limited due process protections, especially in political and security-related cases. The right to participate in public affairs by way of election to offices with some authority is extremely limited; the only exception is Kuwait.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

42676. United Arab Emirates

Author:: Christopher Davidson
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Formed in 1971 following Britain's departure from the Gulf, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a federation made up of seven monarchies, each of which retains traditional powers alongside more formal emirate-level and federal governments. With the bulk of the UAE's hydrocarbon reserves in the largest emirate of Abu Dhabi, the latter's ruling family continues to dominate UAE politics. Although a semi-elected consultative council exists, this is far from being an effective parliament, and since the 2011 “Arab Spring” there have been strong calls for greater democracy, which have led to the imprisonment of more than 50 activists. Externally, Iran remains the most significant threat to the UAE regime, having occupied three UAE islands since 1971 and continuing to alarm the UAE with its nuclear programme. Although the UAE is a wealthy country, often suffering from “voluntary unemployment” among its nationals, there is a serious wealth distribution problem, with poorer parts of the country experiencing poverty. Hydrocarbons remain the mainstay of the UAE's economy, although there have been some spirited attempts to diversify into other sectors, especially in Dubai, which is the UAE's most business-friendly emirate.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Britain and Dubai

42677. Regional security co-operation in the smaller Gulf states

Author:: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This overview paper examines the challenges facing regional security co-operation in the five smaller Gulf States. It demonstrates the resilience and durability of intra-regional differences, particularly scepticism of Saudi Arabia's greater size and regional objectives. With the notable exception of Bahrain, differences of outlook have continued into the post-Arab Spring period as Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman hold significant reservations about moving toward a closer Gulf union. The Arab Spring has injected urgent new domestic considerations into a regional security complex hitherto marked by external instability. Yet the bold political action and longer-term planning that is needed to address these issues is lacking, because ruling elites prioritise short-term policies designed to ensure regime security in a narrower sense. This means that security remains defined in hard, “traditional” terms and has not evolved to include the security of individuals and communities rather than rulers and states. The future of regional security co-operation is therefore uncertain and bleak, and the closing of ranks may yet herald a closer Gulf union as rulers come together to deal with the pressures generated by the Arab Spring.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

42678. The threat of growing extremism in Punjab

Author:: David Hansen
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: During the last few years Punjab has experienced a deep social crisis in which Islamist organisations have been able to challenge the Pakistani authorities' power – as certain Islamist organisations, including extremist ones, increasingly are filling the role of welfare providers to the people. Punjab is experiencing a shift from the traditional Barelvi (Sufi) Islam towards more orthodox interpretations of the faith – often in quite radical variants. Some of the most important extremist Islamist organisations instrumental in this reorientation have become involved in criminal activity and in settling scores between competing bodies at the local level. Local judiciary, police and politicians often function as enablers for the extremists. This is not only troublesome for Pakistan: rising radical Islamist tendencies can be witnessed in Norway among certain Norwegian-Pakistanis. This policy brief describes some initial findings regarding the potential consequences of Punjab's social crisis, its patterns of extremism and the reorientation of religion in the province. It argues that in addition to being problematic for Pakistan, this development may have an adverse effect on diaspora communities living in the West.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

42679. China's regional security relations and interaction with the U.S.: trends, challenges and possible scenarios

Author:: Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This paper provides a brief overview of current developments relevant to Sino-U.S. security relations, and to China's involvement in regional security issues, in East and South-East Asia. The most fundamental challenge with regard to regional stability is how the roles of China and the United States in the Asia Pacific can be reconciled. While the U.S. is concerned that a rising China will eventually push American influence out of East and South-East Asia, China in turn fears that the U.S. will try to retain its leadership role by exploiting and amplifying tensions between the Chinese and their neighbours. Currently the Sino-U.S. rivalry is threatening unity within ASEAN, which poses an immediate risk for regional stability. A substantial improvement in regional stability – whether in South-East or in East Asia – is unlikely unless the U.S. and China manage to stabilise their bilateral relationship. It is important for all interested parties, inside Asia but also outside (including in Europe), to contribute to a move away from a scenario in which regional stability continues to deteriorate, and in the direction of a scenario that involves a cooperative arrangement between China and the U.S. in a stable multilateral setting.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

42680. Negotiating disarmament and demobilisation in peace processes: what is the state of the evidence?

Author:: Robert Muggah and Matthias Rieger
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This report considers the extent to which disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) and related concepts are accounted for in peace processes and peace agreements. It focuses on the scale and scope of provisions for disarmament and demobilisation in peace agreements, the nature of their sequencing and inclusion in such agreements, and the types of security mechanisms intended to promote confidence among parties. It finds that key provisions for DDR are present in over half of all comprehensive peace agreements (numbering 37 in total) and fewer than 5% of all related peace accords, protocols and resolutions (numbering 640 in total). This review does not discern clear patterns of where key concepts are located or distributed in peace agreements. In reviewing negotiating experiences, however, it finds that “disarmament” and “demobilisation” are often relegated to the end of talks and/or left ambiguous in peace agreements themselves. Mediators or parties to a conflict thus seldom regard disarmament and demobilisation as preconditions for negotiations. They are nevertheless central to wider questions of security sector transformation and transitional justice in the aftermath of war.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, and War

42681. Arab Spring, Turkish "Summer"? The trajectory of a pro-Western "moderate Islam"

Author:: ees van der Pijl
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The “moderate Islam” that has developed in Turkey could play a role in shaping the outcome of the Arab revolt that began in 2011. The modern Turkish state established by Atatürk after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had to find ways to integrate Islam politically. Turkey was a late-industrialising country and the Islamic political current tended to have an anti-Western, antiliberal profile on this account. Two tendencies within Turkish political Islam are distinguished: one connecting religion to economic nationalism, the other primarily cultural and willing to accommodate to neoliberalism. The 1980 military coup geared the country to neoliberalism and cleared the way for this second tendency to rise to power through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of R.T. Erdo Ë˜gan. For the West and the Gulf Arab states the export of this model to the Arab countries destabilised in the popular revolt would amount to a very favourable outcome. Gulf Arab capital was already involved in the opening up of state-controlled Arab economies, including Syria. Although the situation is still in flux, by following the Turkish model Muslim Brotherhood governments could potentially embrace political loyalty to the West and neoliberal capitalism.
Topic:: Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

42682. Brazil: an emerging peacekeeping actor

Author:: Per M. Norheim-Martinsen
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: As the presence of Western states in UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) has gradually decreased, new states have been filling the resultant void, although these operations remain wedded to Western ideas and standards of how such interventions should be carried out. However, as emerging powers like Brazil are now taking the lead on the ground, the question that this report seeks to shed light on is how this is starting to affect the way in which the UN carries out its PKOs. It assesses the Brazilian military lead in MINUSTAH in Haiti against the backdrop of the so-called “pacification” strategy currently employed in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. It shows that rather than being a “transmission belt” for a traditional Western model of military intervention, Brazil's lead in MINUSTAH has had an added value, building on Brazilian experience with urban conflict, which is an area with which the UN and Western states are unfamiliar. In fact, several states, including the U.S., have started to look to Brazil when developing and adapting concepts for urban and anti-crime operations. This shows that as Brazil has become a more active participant in UN PKOs, it has also gradually begun to set the agenda for how the UN runs such operations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

42683. Disarmament and demobilisation in comparative perspective: patterns and policy recommendations

Author:: Madhav Joshi and J. Michael Quinn
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Disarmament and demobilisation (DD) programmes are vital components of strategic peacebuilding. DD provisions govern the collection and disposal of arms and ammunition, and oversee the discharge of active-duty combatants from the state's armed forces, rebel groups, or both. Using data from the Peace Accords Matrix database, this report compares the five most recent cases of DD implementation: Nepal (2006), Liberia (2003), Macedonia (2001), Indonesia-Aceh (2005) and South Sudan (2005). A comparative analysis reveals several common patterns in the kinds of provisional and operational choices associated with efficient DD implementation. Having a definite timeline and largely completing the process prior to the first elections creates an incentivised environment for a timely DD process while diminishing the risks of election-related violence. Economic incentives associated with the process of cantonment can increase the duration of DD programmes. External actors with a strong mandate can solve problems faster and have been instrumental in achieving a swift DD progression. Disarmament programmes must be realistically matched to conflict settings. This can include the use of mobile collection units, which have proved to be successful in cases where a primary centralised site is not sufficient.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Nepal, Macedonia, Liberia, and South Sudan

42684. Who rules Nigeria?

Author:: Inge Amundsen
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Nigeria has experienced military coups, a civil war and very poor economic development, and its population is more impoverished today than at independence. Behind this lies the “oil curse”. The ruling elite has captured the rents generated from oil for personal enrichment and power purposes. Nigeria's elite formation has three distinct characteristics. It is based on a fusion of elites, with the military dominating. It is consolidated through power diversification (with the conversion of political power into economic power as the most important), and it is enriched through economic extraction (where the usurpation of the country's oil wealth is pivotal).
Topic:: Civil War, Corruption, Democratization, Oil, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

42685. Ending 50 years of military rule? Prospects for peace, democracy and development in Burma

Author:: Tom Kramer
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Burma has been under military rule since 1962. However, in 2011 a new political system was introduced and a new military-backed government inaugurated that has reached out to the democratic opposition and armed ethnic opposition groups seeking more autonomy. Both of these groups reject the new constitution, which seeks to entrench the army's power.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Political Economy, Poverty, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: South Asia and Burma

42686. Salvaging Sinai

Author:: Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The August 5th 2012 attack that killed 16 Egyptian soldiers in the nexus where Gaza, Egypt and Israel meet has spurred Egypt's greatest effort to reassert its authority over the Sinai since recovering the territory from Israel in 1982. Nevertheless, armed Bedouin groups backed by jihadi allies continue to confound their efforts. Only the integration of Sinai's Bedouin into Egypt's security, political and economic fabric will restore the buy-in of the indigenous population that is vital for both the success of the country's military campaign and the stabilisation of this strategic corridor linking Asia to Africa – and of post-revolutionary Egypt itself. The identities of the attackers have yet to be made public. Most were likely Sinai Bedouin, with perhaps some Palestinian support. But the fact that this attack is not an isolated incident and has been succeeded and preceded by many others suggests that North Sinai has become an environment for the killing of Egyptian soldiers and the destruction of Egyptian installations. This report examines the causes of the prevailing anti-government temperament in North Sinai, which is home to approximately 75% of Sinai's half a million people; tracks the development of quasi self-rule since the fall of Mubarak; and offers a few suggestions for the stabilisation of Sinai within a future regional economic and security framework.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

42687. Is a military intervention in Mali unavoidable?

Author:: Roland Marchal
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: No clear settlement of the crisis in Mali seems possible in the short term, despite a UN Security Council resolution on October 12th paving the way for a military intervention by ECOWAS countries. The crisis is fed by various dynamics that need to be reconciled for peace to prevail. Firstly, the transition in Bamako is going nowhere, and further divisions in the government and the resurgence of the coup makers undermine the fragile progress witnessed in July. Unable to agree on a solution in Bamako, most political actors have developed a militaristic approach to any solution for the north. Secondly, Islamist and jihadist movements were able to gain control of northern Mali (two-thirds of the country) in a few months and have enforced new rules inspired by their understanding of Islam. Although protests erupted in several cities, the militants deepened their control over the region and its local and transnational economy and may have a constituency among the population. ECOWAS, supported by France, is willing to intervene militarily, but the fragmentation of the Malian army is a key weakness. Moreover, ECOWAS has not spelled out the actual aims of its intervention: mere territorial gains without addressing local and national grievances may mean the return of the status quo ante, which would be unacceptable to most people in northern Mali. As usual, the long-term political dimensions of the ECOWAS intervention are dismissed in favour of an immediate military victory that would be very fragile as a result.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Africa, France, and Northern Mali

42688. The reshaping of West Africa after Mu'ammar Qaddafi's fall

Author:: Roland Marchal
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Muammar Qaddafi's overthrow was interpreted in the West as the removal of a tyranny and an expression of regional democratisation dynamics. Concerned with their own interests, Western powers have not paid attention to key factors affecting political developments in the wider region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Democratization, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Arabia and North Africa

42689. The rule of law in peacebuilding contexts: lessons from Somalia

Author:: Alejandro Bendaña
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Rule of law (RoL) programming is caught in the middle of the peacebuilding/tatebuilding discussion. Twenty-first century post-conflict RoL programming seems to have become more statist in character and highly focused on the criminal justice chain. A key question, however, is how external RoL/statebuilding assistance can address the gap between society and the central state so as to in effect give the RoL a greater peacebuilding function. Southern Somalia provides an example of failed RoL/statebuilding, but in Somaliland the existence of an inclusive political settlement has allowed United Nations RoL assistance to contribute not only to core state capacities, but also to engagement with civil society and arriving at innovative programming modalities, which in practice signifies an expanded interpretation of the concept of the RoL and thus of its social impact. Examples are given of engagement with “informal” customary systems and other sectors so as to contribute to the construction of more socially embedded police and justice practices capable of providing greater legitimacy to the state.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Somalia

42690. Oil sanctions on Iran: Cracking under pressure?

Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: In 2012 Western sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran's oil and gas industry, aimed at putting economic pressure on it to change its nuclear policy, have reached an unprecedented level. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Iran has been in a state of hostility with the US, and has had cool relations, at best, with most European states. Sanctions against official Iranian financial institutions, individuals associated with the Islamic Republic and organisations suspected of being involved in nuclear proliferation activities have been mounting for some time. However, it is only recently that Iran's oil and gas sector has been specifically targeted by both the US and the EU in such a co-ordinated manner. Importantly, this marks the first time since the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the EU member states have collectively put in place sanctions on the export of Iranian crude oil—until now an action that, with a few exceptions, had only been taken by the US. The stakes have therefore been raised in Iran's confrontation with Western powers over the nuclear issue.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Oil, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

42691. After Sandy: Climate and Our Coastal Future

Author:: Jeffrey D. Sachs (moderator)
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, Columbia faculty from schools, institutes and centers from across the university have provided a key source of insight to the media, general public and policy-makers about the related issues of climate change and sustainable development in the face of rising sea levels around the globe. This university-wide conversation, co-sponsored by The Earth Institute, Office of the Executive Vice President for Research, and World Leaders Forum, brings together just a few of the many Columbia researchers whose interdisciplinary work is adding to our understanding of the risks facing coastal communities, including New York City and its suburbs.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: United States and New York

42692. Deciphering the Linkages between Organized Crime and Transnational Crime

Author:: Jay S. Albanese
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Over the last twenty years, traditional depictions of organized crime as an ethnic, neighborhood phenomenon have given way to discoveries of emerging transnational criminal enterprises involving trafficking, fraud, and corruption on an international scale. The available evidence suggests that these are not two distinct types of criminal conduct. Instead they are overlapping in nature in terms of the crimes committed, the offenders involved, and in how criminal opportunities are exploited for profit. This article analyzes the similarities and differences between organized crime and transnational crime, concluding that they are in fact manifestations of the same underlying conduct and the same pool of criminal offenders. They involve exploitation of similar criminal opportunities, which have changed in form over time. Recommendations for more effective international prevention and responses are made in the context of assessing the remarkable transnational organized crime control efforts of the last decade.

42693. The Diverse Facilitators of Counterfeiting: A Regional Perspective

Author:: Louise I. Shelley
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Counterfeits may be the least policed form of transnational crime, although the profits from their sale total in the billions of dollars annually. The counterfeits traded by transnational criminals can be subdivided into two categories: those that merely represent copyright infringement and those that cause harm to life and society. In the first category are such counterfeits as clothing, purses, other consumer goods, and DVDs and other forms of intellectual property. In the second category are counterfeit pharmaceuticals, food, wine, cigarettes, and spare parts. Both forms of counterfeit, however, can be exploited by terrorists because of the low risk and high profits associated with this commerce that makes this trade more dangerous. The article will focus on the actors associated with this illicit trade, as well as the supply, the demand, and the limited law enforcement response. Particular focus will be paid to the counterfeits that cause harm to human life.

42694. States, Frauds, and the Threat of Transnational Organized Crime

Author:: Michael Levi
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Fraud and corruption are very serious threats to some states and are harmful to all; however, this threat is seldom connected to transnational organized crime (TOC). We cannot examine social problems in a vacuum; we have to construct images of threats through the lens of the social and political threats posed by different aspects of crime and its organization. Harm and threat are not just about their economic cost, but also about how different phenomena hurt our confidence that we can control our surroundings and our future expectations. This anxiety can affect entities such as nation states or even trans-state entities such as “Ummah Wahidah”—the Islamic global community. The aim of this article is threefold: to disentangle the real and imagined threats of fraud, detail the involvement of transnational organized crime groups in fraud, and determine who or what can be reasonably described as threatened by these phenomena. This article rejects the implicit binary view that states are either threatened or not threatened, referring rather to a scale of threat to both states and different sectors within the state. This article critiques the value of Moisés Naím's concept of 'mafia state' to explaining and understanding fraud.
Topic:: Islam

42695. Central American Gangs: Changing Nature and New Partners

Author:: Douglas Farah
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This article will examine the changing roles of Central American gangs within the drug trafficking structures, particularly the Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), operating in the region. This will include the emerging political role of the gangs (Mara Salvatrucha or MS-13 as well as Barrio 18), the negotiations between the gangs and Mexican DTOs for joint operational capacity, the interactions between the two sides, and the significant repercussions all this will likely have across the region as the gangs become both better financed and more politically aware and active. This article is based on field research in San Salvador, where the author was able to spend time with some members of the MS-13. It is also informed by his examination of the truce between the gangs and the Salvadoran government, as well as the talks between the gangs and the Sinaloa cartel.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: America and Mexico

42696. The Twenty-first Century Expansion of the Transnational Drug Trade in Africa

Author:: Ashley Neese Bybee
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: In the last decade, West Africa emerged as a major transit hub for Latin American Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) transporting cocaine to Western Europe. Since that time, there has been cause for hope and despair. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and an array of international donors have made great strides in acknowledging the growing problem of drug trafficking and have implemented practical measures to stem this flow. All the while, the fears of many observers have been confirmed as the insidious effects of the drug trade have begun to take effect in many West African states. Consumption is on the rise and narco-corruption now undermines the rule of law and legitimate economic growth necessary for development and stability. One of the most alarming trends that place Africa and Africans on the radar of policy makers, law enforcement, and researchers alike is the number of new fronts on which the illicit drug trade is growing. Its geographic expansion beyond the relatively confined region of West Africa is now endangering East and Southern Africa. The arrival of new drugs to the region—heroin and Amphetamine-Type Stimulants (ATS, commonly referred to as synthetic drugs)—has been accompanied by the discovery of local manufacturing facilities to process them. Lastly, the growing level of involvement by Africans—who initially served as facilitators but now appear to be taking a more proactive role—raises concerns that a new generation of African DTOs is rising in the ranks. This paper examines how each of these trends are contributing to the twenty-first century expansion of the drug trade in Africa and summarizes some of the impacts they are having on the states and their populations.
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Western Europe

42697. Fighting Transnational Environmental Crime

Author:: Lorraine Elliott
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: Transnational environmental crime (TEC) is often not taken seriously within the broader policy and enforcement community. It is one of the fastest growing areas of cross-border criminal enterprise involving high profits and low risk for those involved in timber trafficking, wildlife smuggling, the black market in ozone-depleting substances, and the illegal trade in hazardous and toxic waste. TEC is increasingly characterized by commodity-specific smuggling networks, the intrusion of criminal groups involved in other forms of illegal trade and, in some cases, politically motivated organizations for whom this generates income to support other activities. But unlike other forms of transnational crime, there is no international treaty to prevent, suppress, and punish the kinds of trafficking and smuggling that constitute transnational environmental crime. The global regulatory and enforcement community has therefore developed innovative collaborative mechanisms to meet both the criminal and environmental challenges associated with this increasingly serious form of cross-border crime. Despite their successes, their efforts remain under-resourced. This article examines the challenges of TEC and efforts to respond to those challenges in the face of uncertain resources and limited awareness.
Topic:: Environment

42698. Corporate Criminal Liability: Article 10 of the Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime

Author:: Mohamed Mattar
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: The UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNCTOC) establishes criminal liability of the corporation as a legal entity in addition to the individual liability of persons who may be acting on behalf of the corporation. The purpose of this article is to address corporate criminal liability for illicit business practices that may be committed by a corporation in violation of international human rights law. This article will discuss corporate criminal liability under international conventional law and will discuss the extent to which U.S. domestic laws recognize corporate criminal liability. The article will highlight new trends in international law related to corporate liability, as well as instances where the legitimacy of corporate liability has been legally denied. Using Article 10 and domestic precedent, this article will argue that the role corporations play in international trade and development warrants their accountability and responsibility once they are involved in illicit business practices.
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: United States

42699. International Narcotics Law Enforcement: A Study in Irrationality

Author:: Frank G. Madsen
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This year sees the celebration of the first century of international legal provisions against the illicit production and trade of narcotics substances. Accordingly, this is an appropriate moment to evaluate the results obtained. The following essay considers how the international prohibition regime created the crime of drug trafficking. The ensuing function of denied demand is the inescapable basis for the development of organized crime. Second, costs of the regime are critically assessed. The former include institutional costs of law enforcement and of the incarceration of individuals sentenced for drug trafficking and related offences, e.g., violence and financial crimes. The indirect costs are difficult to gauge and impossible to monetize. They include the immense suffering caused by drug trafficking as well as the deterioration of public services due to corruption. The present situation on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border is sufficiently eloquent evidence. Also, narcotics legislation leads to racial tension since the incarceration rates for non-whites for these offences is considerably higher than for whites in the United State and the United Kingdom. Third, political premises are briefly analyzed, namely the implementation of narcotics liaison offices in foreign jurisdictions and the linking of foreign aid and trade privileges to a certification of trade partners' adherence to U.S. antinarcotic drugs law enforcement. One might claim, somewhat counterintuitively, that decriminalization of drug trafficking is not necessary. Drug trafficking has already been decriminalized de facto, if not de jure, by the sheer, constant saturation of the market place.
Topic:: International Law
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

42700. Organized Crime in a Network Society

Author:: Misha Glenny and Ronald Davis
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: The very benefits of the Internet make it susceptible to being used against individuals, organizations, and states. The changing role of organized crime in a networked society demands understanding the risks involved when using new technologies. Misha Glenny, author of McMafia: Journey through the Global Criminal Underworld, explores the transitions and rapid expansion of what he calls the "global shadow economy," which today accounts for approximately 15 to 20 percent of the world's GDP. According to Glenny, the great danger of cybercrime is the high risk of potentially affecting a large part of the world that is linked to the web and that finds significant value in its interconnectedness. In this interview, conducted by Ronald Davis of the Journal, Misha Glenny exposes the inherent problems associated with the nature of the Internet with respect to organized crime.

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