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42142. The Three Versions of Al Qaeda: A Primer
- Author:
- Clint Watts
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Al Qaeda today only slightly resembles the al Qaeda of yesteryear. Al Qaeda operatives or "al Qaeda-like" organizations stretch throughout North Africa, across the Middle East and into South Asia. This disparate string of organizations hosts a handful of al Qaeda's original Afghanistan and Pakistan veterans but mostly consist of newcomers inspired by al Qaeda's message -- disenfranchised young men seeking an adventurous fight in the wake of a tumultuous Arab Spring. Al Qaeda, or more appropriately jihadism pursued under al Qaeda's banner, has morphed in several waves over the course of more than two decades.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Canada, and Arabia
42143. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 2012
- Author:
- Dan Fichtler and Andrew Shaver
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The European sovereign debt crisis is surprisingly persistent in defying any solution. Germany would be a natural candidate to lead the implementation of measures to stop the crisis. However, Germany has shown only limited effort in doing so, although it benefits significantly from the Euro. Germany is often accused of weak leadership and questionable economic assumptions by the media. Instead, this paper will argue that Germany has acted rationally and benefits from a delay of the crisis. The analysis of the current situation, which is based on a game-theoretic model, offers evidence that some countries maximize their benefits by delaying the crisis. The crisis stimulates exports due to an undervalued Euro and significantly decreases interest rates for safe sovereign bonds. The delay of the crisis introduces a high risk that the monetary union will break up, even if all countries would individually prefer to keep the monetary union. This risk is created by the structure of the decision making process, which has an inherent tendency towards the delaying of a solution. A different decision making process based on majority rule would increase the likelihood that a solution to the crisis would be developed more quickly. Alternatively, concessions by countries suffering from a delay of the crisis to countries like Germany can compensate for any foregone benefits.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
42144. Nuclear Developments in North Korea
- Author:
- Siegfried S. Hecker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Three years ago, Pyongyang expelled the international inspectors from its Yongbyon nuclear complex and abandoned the Six - Party talks. The crisis atmosphere on the Korean peninsula sparked by Pyongyang's military actions in 2010 turned into diplomatic calm in 2011, but Pyongyang continued to expand its nuclear program. It conducted a second nuclear test in 2009, unveiled a modern, sophisticated uranium centrifuge facility, and rolled out a road - mobile intermediate - range ballistic missile in 2010. Its coopera tion in missile technologies with Iran continued and nuclear cooperation is suspected. Beijing protected Pyongyang from crippling sanctions while Washington and Seoul remained reluctant to engage having been burned by Pyongyang's unveiling of its clandestine uranium enrichment program. Prospects for resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis looked grim. Then, surprisingly in December 2011, just before the death of Kim Jong - il, American and North Korean diplomats nearly reached a deal to return to the negotiating table. Even more surprisingly, the new Kim regime agreed to take initial steps with Washington in February. In this paper, I describe the troubling nuclear developments in 2011 and suggest targets for the upcoming negotiations to further reduce the nuclear risks while the parties resume the long road toward eventual denuclearization and normalization of relations on the Korean peninsula.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
42145. A Winning Gambit
- Author:
- Siegfried S. Hecker
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- CISAC Co-Director Siegfried Hecker explains why nuclear arms states stand to gain more than they lose by ratifying the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). He explains why it is crucial to prevent states from testing nuclear weapons, with the strongest barrier to testing being the CTBT.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States
42146. Table of Contents
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- 2005'ten beri yayınlanmakta olan Ortadoğu Yıllığı bu sayısıyla birlikte sekizinci kez okuyucularıyla buluşmuş oldu. Son dönemde içeride demokrasisini sağlamlaştıran ve bunun getirmiş olduğu istikrar ortamı sayesinde belirgin bir şekilde ekonomik, siyasi ve askeri kapasitesini artıran Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu'daki bölgesel güç konumuna uygun politikalar izleyebilmesi için bu bölgenin daha iyi tanınması giderek daha önemli hale gelmektedir. Hem siyasi karar vericiler hem de araştırmacılar ve akademik dünya için Ortadoğu bölgesindeki ülkelerin siyasal, ekonomik ve toplumsal yapılarının detaylı bir şekilde bilinmesi ve bu yapılara dair yaşanan süreçlerin sağlıklı bir şekilde analiz edilebilmesini kolaylaştırmayı amaçlayan Ortadoğu Yıllığı “doğru bilgi ve sağlıklı analiz” sloganıyla yola çıkmıştı. Bu yolda kararlı bir şekilde ilerlemenin ve bir kesinti olmadan sekizinci sayıya ulaşmanın mutluluğunu yaşıyoruz.
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Ecuador
42147. Türkiye'nin Ortadoğu Politikası
- Author:
- Kemal İnat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- Turkish foreign policy toward the Middle East has confronted with more and novel security challenges in 2012. The problematic issues related to Arab revolutions of 2011 have already had negative repercussions for Ankara. As a result of diverging policy choices toward the Arab revolutions, these conflicting issues caused more strained relations between Turkey and its neighbors in the region. Regional actors divided over how to respond to political deadlocks in the Middle East. While Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have sided together, Iran, Syria and the central government of Iraq have made their policies jointly. This very division between the regional actors has increased the security risks within the Middle East. These two camps have particularly conflicting policy agendas and as a result, they have become part of a “proxy war” in Syria which constitutes the biggest security threat to the whole region. Despite the deteriorating situation in Syria and its own tense political environment domestically, Turkey, has continued to strengthen its economic relations with the Middle Eastern capitals except Damascus. It was partly a result of this policy that Turkey's export toward the Middle East increased significantly.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Damascus, and Ankara
42148. Irak 2012
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- Termination of the US military presence in Iraq at the end of 2011, bring some problems for Iraq on military, domestic politics and economic area. Just a few months later US military withdrawal, escalating political tension began to delimitate coalition government built on a fragile structure and at the same time has led to emergence of some struggles with in the country. Discourses or expectations of many Iraqi leaders that Iraq will be saved from the problems which he faced and even new independent era will start with the year of 2012 have been turned upside down because of violence and political instability occurring at the beginning of this new independent era. Bombings, political and military strife between ethnic groups, struggle between national government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and particularly worsening of Iraq-Turkey relations forced Baghdad government to waste large part of its energy on these issues. In addition to this, natural resources having strategic importance for economic developments and Iraq's future stand out as a shaping factor of Iraq's foreign and domestic politics.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
42149. İran 2012
- Author:
- Murat Yeşiltaş
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring has resulted in a shift in the nature of Iran's regional foreign policy from a traditional 'resistance' strategy to a 'new engagement' approach. The new approach aims to strike a balance between strengthening cooperation with states in the region such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia and containing threats through maintaining traditional relations with ideological movements. In addition to the new strategic engagement policy, however, the nuclear issue has been constrained Iran's real economic and foreign policy capacity during 2012. The deepening economic crisis and rising inflation rates have also negatively affect Iran's domestic affairs and caused a new fragmentation among the conservative block. The legislative election held on March 2012 was the best example to understand this separation in Iranian domestic politics. In this article, it is analysed Iranian bilateral and regional relations by particularly focusing on its position regarding Arab Spring, nuclear issue and regional developments during 2012.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Arabia, and Egypt
42150. Filistin 2012
- Author:
- M. Cüneyt Özşahin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- Fundamental issues such as the conflict between Hamas and Israel and the rift between Hamas and Fatah, shaped the Palestinian politics in 2012 as in previous years. Israel opted for military intervention against Hamas once more with the Operation Pillar of Defense. The outcome of negotiations that took place throughout 2012 between Hamas and Fatah over the disagreements between the two sides was far from being satisfactory. The impact of Arab Spring, on the other hand, opened new avenues for a set of new developments in Palestinian politics. Egypt, Turkey and Qatar have formed a new alliance as supportive forces in both Palestinian domestic and foreign policy. In addition to all these, the Palestinian authority's international attempts through United Nations started with the UNESCO membership in 2011 and ended up with obtaining the UN observatory non-membership status in 2012. It was underlined that upgrade in Palestinian UN status would open new avenues for Israel-Palestine relations in the long run. Apart from all these, Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails protested the severe prison conditions by hunger strikes.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar