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  • Author: Benoit Gagnon
  • Publication Date: 12-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Abstract: In the wake of September 11, the U.S. Superpower once again became a target. This time, the attack was carried out by means of the Internet. How effective is American cyberstrategy? Examining the hacking scene in the last couple of years, it is clear that it is not an adequate response to present – and future – cyberthreats. Therefore, it is fair to say that the United States has a national security problem rather than a cybersecurity problem and to conclude that as things stand at present the American government is steering the United States toward a cyber-9/11.
  • Topic: International Relations, Science and Technology, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Séastien Barthe, Charles-Philippe David
  • Publication Date: 12-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Abstract: The conflict that ravaged Bosnia-Herzegovina from 1992 to 1995 was one of the central international problems that the Clinton White House had to face during its first term. The “issue from hell”, as Warren Christopher famously dubbed it in 19933, was emblematic of the Clinton administration's failure, during the period of January 1993 to late summer 1995, to formulate foreign policies that could produce the results desired by the policy-makers in the West Wing.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development
  • Political Geography: United States, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Séastien Barthe, Charles-Philippe David
  • Publication Date: 12-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
  • Abstract: Some presidents fit a pattern. But though Clinton does bear comparison with some of his predecessors, he combines elements of several types and defies (for now) definitive categorization.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development
  • Political Geography: United States, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Joseph M. Grieco
  • Publication Date: 11-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
  • Abstract: The war in Iraq continues; its wisdom and consequences for the United States and the Middle East cannot yet be fully assessed. Still, it may be said that the lead-up to the war largely put to rest the view that an American president can readily respond to external threats with unilateral military force, and need not take into account the views of allies and the United Nations. Presidents, even those with unilateralist inclinations, such as that at present, are constrained to remain committed to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the UN Security Council because large majorities of the American public want their government to have allies and UN authorization when the United States goes to war. Americans are likely to want allies and international authorization because their possession increases the chances of pre-war coercive diplomatic success and, if war is necessary, success during and after it at lower cost. They may also want allies and international authorization for another reason, namely, to obtain a "second opinion" on the wisdom and the intentions of their leaders in taking them down a path that may end in war.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, NATO, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Matthew Oresman, Drew Thompson, John C.k. Daly, Harvey Stockwin
  • Publication Date: 12-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Jamestown Foundation
  • Abstract: While much of the world is fixated on China's booming economic growth and its ravenous appetite for energy, untidy diplomatic loose ends in the form of territorial disputes with neighbors have many of the countries bordering the Asian giant nervous. Though Beijing's claims over Taiwan remain the focus of world attention, China is embroiled in unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with no less than thirteen of its neighbors. Given that China's military capability is growing apace with its economy, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is similarly on the rise. While China up to now has attempted to address these issues diplomatically, the fact that many of the unresolved border disputes involve potential energy reserves might prompt China to use military force to resolve issues of strategic economic interest.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia
  • Author: Willy Lam, Lionel Martin, John Tkacik, Toby Lincoln
  • Publication Date: 10-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Jamestown Foundation
  • Abstract: Beijing is flashing the North Korean (DPRK) card at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership feels increasingly threatened by an anti-China “containment policy” that Washington is supposedly spearheading with the help of Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries and regions.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, Dennis J. Blasko, Eric Teo
  • Publication Date: 10-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Jamestown Foundation
  • Abstract: The year is 2008. The setting is the vast West Pacific region. To break the US-Japan- Taiwan military containment of China, the combined air, navy and armed forces of the Chinese Liberation Army (PLA), equipped with newly established carrier battle groups, have destroyed all U.S. military bases in the region, taken control of all strategic sea routes from the Strait of Malacca to the Persian Gulf, and imposed an oil embargo to choke the U.S., Japan, Taiwan and their allies.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Israel, Taiwan
  • Author: Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Dennis J. Blasko, Zhu Feng
  • Publication Date: 09-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Jamestown Foundation
  • Abstract: President and Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman Hu Jintao has moved swiftly to tighten his grip over the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The emphasis that the new commander-in-chief has put on flexing the nation's fast-growing military muscle has fed speculation that he will be taking a more hard-line stance on relations with the U.S. and with Taiwan. However, it is unlikely that the predominant Hu-Wen Faction – a reference to the leadership team under Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao – will unveil too many major initiatives until it has consolidated its control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the government and the army.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, Taiwan
  • Author: Christine Loh, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, Zhenzhen Chen
  • Publication Date: 09-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Jamestown Foundation
  • Abstract: The 1.784 million voters that participated in Hong Kong's 2004 Legislative Council Election gave a clear signal that they want democracy sooner rather than later. Whereas until now Hong Kongers have only been able to select the opposition, the recent elections indicated the people's desire to elect their city government. However, herein lies the uniqueness of Hong Kong's political system. Despite the city's many achievements in education standards, economic vibrancy, and social stability, its seven million people have yet to be allowed to freely choose their municipal political leaders.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: China, Israel
  • Author: Christine Loh, Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Zhu Feng
  • Publication Date: 09-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Jamestown Foundation
  • Abstract: The soon-to-be-announced appointment of former Vice-Foreign Minister Wang Yi as Chinese Ambassador to Japan is emblematic of efforts by the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao leadership to improve Sino-Japanese relationship. In the past year, bilateral ties have deteriorated due to a host of issues ranging from “the question of history” – and compensation for World War II-related damages – to altercations over rights to oil and gas under the East China Sea. Protests by nationalistic Chinese groupings outside the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, banned until about two years ago, have become almost routine. Ugly scenes at a recent soccer match between the two national teams in the Chinese capital demonstrated the hostility with which many Chinese regard their nextdoor neighbor. And in Japan, the “China threat” theory is fast gaining ground owing to the perception that an economically and militarily strong China is throwing its weight around and threatening Japanese interests everywhere.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Israel