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39392. Egypt's Media in the Midst of Revolution
- Author:
- Rasha Abdulla
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- More than three years after the January 25 revolution toppled then Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, Egypt continues to struggle with an authoritarian media sector and constraints on freedom of expression. Postrevolution regimes have not capitalized on opportunities to reform state and private media, and critical voices have been harassed and marginalized by state and nonstate actors. As long as Egypt continues to be governed by rulers who believe controlling the media is in their best interest, reform will only come about through the few dissident voices in the media backed up by support from civil society and the masses.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Communications, and Social Movement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt
39393. Exploring Uzbekistan's Potential Political Transition
- Author:
- Alexey Malashenko
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Islam Karimov has essentially been in power in Uzbekistan since 1989. Rumors abound that Karimov will not take part in the country's next presidential election in 2015, but it seems likely that he will participate. If he does, he is guaranteed to win. Though it is still too early to talk about the chances specific candidates have of replacing Karimov, it is important to look closely at the current ruling elite and the president's possible successors to see where the country might be heading.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Regime Change, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Uzbekistan
39394. In India, Election Season Is Never Over
- Author:
- Richard M. Rossow
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) historic victory in the spring 2014 Lok Sabha1 election was a tremendous accomplishment—yet it still leaves the party with impartial control, at best. Weakness in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP only holds 43 out of 243 seats, may limit the party's ability to enact legislative reforms. And the fact that the BJP only controls 5 of India's 29 states will also blunt the impact of any policy measures adopted at the center. In order to enact a true economic transformation, the BJP will either need the support of a wide range of unaligned parties—which would be a historical abnormality—or to consolidate its power at the state level by winning upcoming state elections. With the BJP's powerful show of force across India in the Lok Sabha election, winning state elections appears to be a viable path.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- India and Southeast Asia
39395. Economic Statecraft Redux: Improving the U.S. State Department's Effectiveness in International Economic Policy
- Author:
- Robert A. Pollard and Gregory N. Hicks
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- At a time when economics has become a more central feature of international relations, the United States needs to raise its game in international economic policy to sustain global leadership. Yet the U.S. government is not well organized at present to meet this challenge.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States
39396. Recent Trends in the South China Sea and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Gregory B. Poling
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Tensions in the South China Sea have continued to build over the last year, with the Philippines submitting its evidence against Chinese claims to an arbitration tribunal, Beijing parking an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam, and Malaysia growing increasingly anxious about Chinese displays of sovereignty at the disputed James Shoal. These and other developments underscore just how critical managing tensions in the South China Sea are, for the region and for the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Malaysia, Beijing, and Asia
39397. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe – that led to war and not yet to peace
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine, the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues. The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiations currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Asia, and Georgia
39398. Flexibility clauses in the Stability and Growth Pact: No need for revision
- Author:
- Stefano Micossi and Fabrizia Peirce
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The policy debate about how best to restore growth in the flagging eurozone economy has been plagued by demands from some highly indebted member countries that the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) be loosened to leave greater room to support the economy with budgetary instruments. These demands have been met with an instant rebuff from the Commission and other financially solid members who argue that loosening the Pact would do little to restore sound growth. This question has also hindered the broader discussion on the need for and content of a renewed growth strategy for the eurozone and the European Union, no least by fuelling fresh mistrust among their member states.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe
39399. Ukraine, Russia and the need for more flexibility in EU foreign policy-making
- Author:
- Steven Blockmans
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine has unleashed a storm of grief and anger in the EU and around the world. Heads of state and government have joined the public outcry and called for tough action against those directly and indirectly responsible for this heinous crime. The EU's reaction, however, has been lame so far by comparison.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
39400. Global Cybercrime: The Interplay of Politics and Law
- Author:
- Aaron Shull
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Examining global cybercrime as solely a legal issue misses an important facet of the problem. Understanding the applicable legal rules, both domestically and internationally, is important. However, major state actors are using concerted efforts to engage in nefarious cyber activities with the intention of advancing their economic and geostrategic interests. This attempt to advance a narrow set of economic interests through cybercrime and economic cyber espionage holds to the potential to erode the trust in the digital economy that has been a necessary condition for the success of the Internet as an economic engine for innovation and growth. By pursuing these efforts, states are prioritizing short-term interests over long-term stability and a responsibly governed, safe and secure Internet platform. This paper explores the recent unsealing of a 31-count indictment against five Chinese government officials and a significant cyber breach, perpetrated by Chinese actors against Western oil, energy and petrochemical companies. The paper concludes by noting that increased cooperation among governments is necessary, but unlikely to occur as long as the discourse surrounding cybercrime remains so heavily politicized and securitized. If governments coalesced around the notion of trying to prevent the long-term degradation of trust in the online economy, they may profitably advance the dialogue away from mutual suspicion and toward mutual cooperation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Crime, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia