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2861. U.S. Interests and Options in Colombia: An Alternative Framework

Author:
Cynthia J. Arnson
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Over the last several months, and beginning most decisively in the spring of 2002, U.S. policy toward Colombia has gone through a significant shift. Traditionally defined in terms of counter-narcotics, and then expanded under Plan Colombia to include areas of democratic and economic strengthening and peace, U.S. policy is now focused squarely on security issues: improving the capacity of the Colombian government to combat left-wing guerrillas and right-wing paramilitaries; establishing an effective military presence throughout the national territory on which other state programs depend; and fighting the drug trade that finances all illegal armed groups. To illustrate the shift, consider the statements of two high- ranking U.S. officials. In August 2001, Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman told a Bogotá press conference that “we support Plan Colombia because...Plan Colombia recognizes that a negotiated settlement is the only way to achieve peace.” By March 2002, Secretary of State Colin Powell told a House subcommittee that “we have to help Colombia save its democracy from narcotraffickers and from terrorists.” The following discussion aims to understand how and why this shift came about, as well as its implications for U.S. interests and policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

2862. Russian Health and Social Welfare: Limited Progress

Author:
Judyth L. Twigg
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
It has become routine for Russian policy makers to characterize their various health and social problems—rising male mortality, HIV/AIDS, illegal drug use, even pension system reform—as threats to the stability and national security of their country. Russia's importance to American national interests was thrown in sharp relief by the events of September 11 and their aftermath. A stable, prosperous Russia is a crucial partner in the war on terrorism. The fact that so many of Russia's health and social indicators remain stagnant or in decline, despite limited improvement along some dimensions, should therefore be troubling to the United States.
Topic:
Government, Health, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

2863. The State of the Natural World

Author:
Kathryn S. Fuller
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The sad truth is that the natural world is everywhere disappearing before our eyes. More than 6 billion people fill the world, with a predicted 9 billion in the decades ahead. We are simply too many—the large numbers of poor struggling to raise the quality of their lives in any way they can and the fewer affluent who nonetheless consume so much of nature's bounty.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Government, and Science and Technology

2864. Plant Biotechnology and the Environment

Author:
Gordon Conway
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Many people who worry about the environmental effects of plant biotechnology fear that we are dealing with some new threat. I would argue that this is not the case. It is not plant biotechnology that is new and unknown, it is the combination of biotechnology and globalization, and the incredibly fast pace at which the two spread and interact, that should concern us.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Government, and Science and Technology

2865. Threats to Democracy: Prevention and Response

Author:
Elizabeth Frawley Bagley and Morton H. Halperin
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Threats to democracy—erosions of democracy and democratic institutions and unconstitutional interruptions to the democratic process—continue to plague countries on the path to democracy. Democratic governments, both individually and in their capacity as members of the Community of Democracies, regional and international organizations, and international financial institutions, must secure more effective international action against threats to democracy in states that have chosen the democratic path.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Globalization, and Government

2866. Enhancing U.S. Leadership at the United Nations

Author:
Lee Feinstein, David Dreier, Lee Hamilton, and Adrian Karatnycky
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Enhanced American leadership at the United Nations is beneficial for U.S. interests and can help strengthen the UN and the international system. For many years, however, the United States has not been nearly as effective at the UN as it can or should be.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States and America

2867. How Shareholder Reforms Can Pay Foreign Policy Dividends

Author:
James J. Shinn and Peter Gourevitch
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Corporate governance—the rules that govern the relationship between managers and shareholders—belongs on the foreign policy agenda of American decision-makers. The vigorous debates underway about corporate governance, both at home and abroad, present an opportunity for the United States to advance its foreign policy goals of enhancing free trade and financial stability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2868. Monetary Policy Rules and the International Monetary Transmission

Author:
Leonor Coutinho
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper analyses alternative monetary policy rules for the ECB, using a two "country" model of the euro area and the US, that assumes monopolistic competition, sticky prices and optimizing agents. The alternative rules analyzed for the ECB are ranked by their ability to stabilize consumption, output, and inflation and maximize consumers' welfare. The analysis contributes toward understanding the trade-offs faced by policymakers in open economies and provides some support for the current design of the ECB's operational framework. The results suggest that stabilizing money-growth, in addition to inflation, gives an additional degree of freedom to stabilize output. Although price stability is likely to remain the primary objective of the ECB, monetary policy must "without prejudice of price stability (...) support the general economic policies in the Community..." (Article 2). Hence monitoring money, under certain assumptions about the shocks hitting the economy, may deliver a better outcome in terms of output stabilization which should allow the ECB to fulfill its secondary but nonetheless important commitment.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2869. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries

Author:
Roberto Perotti
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on GDP, prices and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows:1 ) The estimated effects of fiscal policy on GDP tend to be small: positive government spending multipliers larger than 1 tend to be the exception; 2) The effects of fiscal policy on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; 3) Under plausible values of the price elasticity, government spending has positive effects on the price level, although usually small; 4) Government spending shocks have significant effects on the nominal and real short interest rate, but of varying signs; 5) In the post-1980 period, net tax shocks have positive short run effects on the nominal interest rate, and typically negative or zero effects on prices; 6) The US is an outlier in many dimensions; responses to fiscal shocks estimated on US data are often not representative of the average OECD country included in this sample.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2870. Making EU Trade Agreements Work: The Role of Rules of Origin

Author:
Paul Brenton and Miriam Manchin
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
A key element of the EU's free trade and preferential trade agreements is the extent to which they deliver improved market access and so contribute to the EUs foreign policy objectives towards developing countries and neighbouring countries in Europe, including the countries of the Balkans. Previous preferential trade schemes have been ineffective in delivering improved access to the EU market. The main reason for this is probably the very restrictive rules of origin that the EU imposes, coupled with the costs of proving consistency with these rules. If the EU wants the 'Everything but Arms' agreement and free trade agreements with countries in the Balkans to generate substantial improvements in access to the EU market for products from these countries then it will have to reconsider the current rules of origin and implement less restrictive rules backed upon by a careful safeguards policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans