Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 5 Years

15901. Germany’s Funding to the UNDS: Towards a Better Mix for Stronger Multilateralism

Author:: Silke Weinlich, Max Otto Baumann, and Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Germany has become the second-largest funder of UN humanitarian and development work, but its funding is rather fragmented and restricted. To be an effective supporter of multilateralism, the German Government should adopt a coordinated, strategically informed approach to funding UN organizations.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

15902. Strengthening Coordination in River Basin Governance in Southern Spain – Cooperation, Incentives and Persuasion

Author:: Nora Schütze, Andreas Thiel, Pilar Paneque, Jesús Vargas, and Rodrigo Vidaurre
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Guadalquivir basin in Spain struggles with reducing agricultural water consumption to comply with water quantity provisions of the European Water Framework Directive. Improved cross-sectoral exchange, transparency, monitoring and revision of water rights are needed to address this challenge.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Water, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

15903. Reviving the Dying Giant: Addressing the Political Causes of Water Shortage in the Zayandeh Rud River, Iran

Author:: Ali Yousefi, Christian Knieper, and Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Zayandeh Rud, one of the main rivers in Iran, suffers from severe water scarcity caused by competition among different water users. Overcoming the dominance of supply-oriented water management, strengthening transparency and more collaborative governance would help address the water crisis.
Topic:: Politics, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

15904. Forums, Fees and Data Flows: Coordinating Mining and Water Policy in Mongolia

Author:: Mirja Schoderer and Ines Dombrowsky
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Mineral and metal extraction threatens water quantity and quality in Mongolia. While good legal provisions for coordination exist, a lack of stakeholder involvement, data availability, human and financial capacity, and general transparency and accountability hinder their implementation.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Accountability, Mining, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

15905. Coordination and Cooperation of Water Management, Nature Conservation and Open Space Development in the Emscher Restoration

Author:: Jenny Tröltzsch, Nadine Gerner, Franziska Meergans, Ulf Stein, and Robynne Sutcliffe
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: South Africa’s water legislation is recognised for its ambitious adoption of Integrated Water Resource Management. However, implementation is hindered by conflicting hierarchical and network-based governance styles and lack of coordination between western administration and traditional authority.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

15906. Towards More Policy Advice: Maximising the UN’s Assets to Build Back Better

Author:: John Hendra and Max Baumann
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In order to effectively assist countries in building back better from the COVID-19 pandemic and return to a path towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the UN and its development organizations will need to focus more than in recent times on high-level policy advice.
Topic:: United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15907. Overcoming Coordination Gaps Between Water, Energy and Agriculture: Future Paths to Water Protection in Weser-Ems

Author:: Franziska Meergans, Christina Aue, Christian Knieper, Sascha Kochendörfer, Andrea Lenschow, and Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Intensive agriculture is characteristic for the region of Weser-Ems and the major source of nitrate pollution in groundwater. The analysis of coordination and cooperation shows that incoherent policies in the water, (bio)energy and agricultural sector have exacerbated the problem situation at hand.
Topic:: Agriculture, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

15908. Systemic Challenges and Opportunities of Franco-German Development Cooperation

Author:: Lennart Kaplan
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: How can France and Germany develop a vision for an improved collaboration towards the 2030 agenda for sustainable development? This paper compares the French and German development systems to identify barriers and opportunities for a closer cooperation with partner countries.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Germany

15909. The future of European development banking: what role and place for the European Investment Bank?

Author:: Benedikt Erforth
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The paper takes stock of the European development finance landscape and the EIB’s role as part of this landscape. It looks at the interactions between different European development stakeholders and assesses the proposed reform and its potential impact on European development policy.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Banks, and Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

15910. Transnational Cooperation in Times of Rapid Global Changes: The Arctic Council as a Success Case?

Author:: Dorothea Wehrmann
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Global agreements, such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Climate Agreement, illustrate the need for transnational cooperation to solve complex and interrelated challenges that affect humanity at large. But how can transnational cooperation be more successful in times of rapid global changes? This Discussion Paper shows that many of the premises discussed in the literature on transnational cooperation and on multi-stakeholder partnerships mirror the praise and concerns brought forward with regard to the Arctic Council as a case of success. At the same time, it would be possible under the auspices of the Arctic Council to further transnational cooperation, in particular by advancing its process management. This study proceeds as follows: It introduces and compares various different approaches in global governance research that are thought to strengthen transnational cooperation and critically explores in how far the Arctic Council can be considered an example to learn from in encouraging transnational cooperation. Moving on from the case of the Arctic Council, the study then expands further on the premises brought forward in the literature and suggests that more attention be paid to the dimension of knowledge as particularly in times of rapid global changes a shared understanding of challenges is an important basis for transnational cooperation.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Arctic Council
Political Geography:: Arctic

15911. Carbon Consumption Patterns of Emerging Middle Classes

Author:: Babette Never, Jose Ramon Albert, Hanna Fuhrmann, Sebastian Gsell, Miguel Jaramillo, Sascha Kuhn, and Bernardin Senadza
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: As households move out of poverty, spending patterns change. This is good news from a development perspective, but changing consumer behaviour may imply substantially more carbon emissions. The lifestyle choices of the emerging middle classes are key, now and in the future. This paper explores the consumption patterns of the emerging middle classes and their carbon intensity, using unique micro data from household surveys conducted in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. We find that carbon-intensive consumption increases with wealth in all three countries, and most sharply from the fourth to the fifth middle-class quintile due to changes in travel behaviour, asset ownership and use. In Peru, this shift in the upper-middleclass quintiles translates to annual incomes of roughly USD 11,000-17,000 purchasing power parity. Environmental knowledge and concern are fairly evenly spread at mid- to high levels and do lead to more easy-entry sustainable behaviours, but they do not decrease the level of carbon emissions. To some extent, a knowledge/concern–action gap exists. In our study, social status matters less than the literature claims. Our results have two implications. First, the differentiations between developing/developed countries in the global climate debate may be outdated: It is about being part of the global middle classes or not. Second, a positive spillover from existing easy-entry sustainable behaviours to a change in carbon-intensive consumption patterns needs policy support.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Class, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15912. What the EU Should Do for Democracy Support in Africa: Ten Proposals for a New Strategic Initiative in Times of Polarisation

Author:: Christine Hackenesch, Julia Leininger, and Karina Mross
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper reflects on the strategic importance of EU democracy support in sub-Saharan Africa and makes 10 proposals for reform to be better able to address new challenges in a changing global context.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

15913. Information and Communication Technology in the Lives of Forcibly Displaced Persons in Kenya

Author:: Mirko Eppler, Stella Gaetani, Patrick Köllner, Jana Kuhnt, Charles Martin-Shields, Nyat Mebrahtu, Antonia Peters, and Carlotta Preiß
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: There is a great deal of potential for digital tools to help refugees, but there are still major economic and infrastructure hurdles before all refugees are online. Evidence from three sites in Kenya provide evidence that can guide future digitalization efforts for working with refugees.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Communications, Infrastructure, Refugees, Displacement, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

15914. Never-Ending Reformism from Above and Dissatisfaction from Below: The Paradox of Moroccan Post-Spring Politics

Author:: Francesco Cavatorta and Fabio Merone
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In recent years, Morocco has implemented far-reaching political reforms of modernisation and liberalisation but these have never reached the stage of a systemic change. The country's political regime is still authoritarian in nature.
Topic:: Politics, Authoritarianism, Reform, Arab Spring, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

15915. Corporate Tax Revenue and Foreign Direct Investment: Potential Trade-Offs and How to Address Them

Author:: Sabine Laudage
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Corporate tax revenue and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are two key development finance sources. This paper discusses potential trade-offs faced by developing countries, when mobilizing corporate tax revenue and FDI jointly, and provides policy recommendations how to address these trade-offs.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Direct Investment, Finance, and Corporate Tax
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15916. Monitoring in German Bilateral Development Cooperation: A Case Study of Agricultural, Rural Development and Food Security Projects

Author:: Sarah Holzapfel and Cornelia Römling
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Monitoring and evaluation to increase evidence and thus aid effectiveness remains a challenge in the development community. This analysis of German bilateral development cooperation projects highlights quality challenges in German reporting and recommends adjustments for a more effective M&E system.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Development, International Cooperation, and Rural
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

15917. How the G7 Reviews its Work on Development: A Case Study of Internal Accountability

Author:: Roger A. Fischer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper suggests ways to improve G7 accountability practice so that it better capture learning effects. Better designed commitments and improved follow up would also support G7 legitimacy, because this would make it easier for external stakeholders to check G7 action against its words.
Topic:: Development, Accountability, and G7
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15918. Digitalising the Fiscal Contract: An Interdisciplinary Framework for Empirical Inquiry

Author:: Christian van Haldenwang
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Taxation is above all a political rather than a technical issue. But what happens if new digital technologies cause profound power shifts in the relationship between revenue authorities and taxpayers? The paper seeks to lay the conceptual groundwork for the analysis of this interplay.
Topic:: Economy, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15919. Cling Together, Swing Together: The Contagious Effects of COVID-19 on Developing Countries through Global Value Chains

Author:: Stefan Pahl, Clara Brandi, Jakob Schwab, and Frederik Stender
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper estimates the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains due to the COVID-19 pandemic and reveals that adverse demand-side effects reduce GDP up to 5.4 percent, and collapsing foreign supply generates a drop in GDP of a similar magnitude.
Topic:: Developing World, GDP, Economy, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15920. The LFDD – Human Mobility Nexus in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean: A Review of National Policy and Legal Frameworks

Author:: Diogo Andreola Serraglio
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Addressing human mobility in the context of land and forest degradation and desertification (LFDD) in global and national policy and legal frameworks remains essential for improved management of population movements related to slow onset processes.
Topic:: Environment, Population, Mobility, Land, and Forest
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean

15921. How Sustainable is Recycling? Reconciling the Social, Ecological, and Economic Dimensions in Argentina

Author:: Anna Pegels, Stefanie Heyer, David Ohlig, Felix Kurz, Lena Laux, and Prescott Morley
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: How can recycling in developing countries be shaped to be socially, environmentally, and economically sustainable? Our research synthesizes the ideas and expectations of a diverse set of actors in the recycling sector of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Topic:: Development, Economy, and Recycling
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

15922. Multi-annual financial framework and Next Generation EU, Review of an unprecedented, tumultuous European budgetary chapter

Author:: Anne Vitrey and Sébastien Lumet
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Negotiations on the adoption of the multi-annual financial framework 2021-2027 and the "Next Generation EU" recovery fund continue. Although hope of an agreement allowing deployment from 1 January 2021 has not yet been lost, there are still many sticking points. This is illustrated by the strong tensions that have recently emerged between the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, but also between Member States, themselves reluctant to question the precarious balance of the 21 July agreement.
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Finance, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe

15923. Creation of a European Solidarity Funds: Directing Europeans’ savings towards their growth companies

Author:: Emmanuel Sales
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Europe has an excess of savings and its companies lack equity capital. This diagnosis was made a long time ago and the crises the continent has been going through over the last 10 years have accentuated this gap. European growth companies are rapidly falling prey to large non-European firms that benefit from a deep and liquid stock market. Thus, despite the existing arrangements, Europe is unable to impose world champions that would allow it to build its sovereignty against the United States and China. The creation of a new category of UCITS funds open to all EU savers, the European Sovereign Funds, would help us respond to this challenge by providing medium-sized companies with the fresh capital they need to ensure their development and independence.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, European Union, Economic Growth, and Capital
Political Geography:: Europe

15924. The European Union and its model to regulate international trade relations

Author:: Danièle Hervieu-Léger
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The European Union is one of the main promoters of free trade agreements (FTAs). This position is not new: since the mid-2000s, and even more so in the decade now ending, the Commission, supported by the Council and the European Parliament, has constantly sought to negotiate and conclude new trade agreements. This strategy has paid off. In 2018, almost a third of trade between Europe and the rest of the world was covered by the preferential provisions of an FTA, a figure that is expected to increase significantly in 2020, following the entry into force of the agreement with Vietnam, and to rise in the coming years to more than 40% if the agreements currently being negotiated with Mercosur, the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and possibly the United Kingdom come into force.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

15925. Relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom: a final agreement in view?

Author:: Christian Lequesne
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The United Kingdom officially left the European Union on 31 January 2020 following the signing of the exit agreement. This departure went hand in hand with the opening of a transitional period until 31 December 2020, during which the rules of the internal market continue to govern relations between the two sides. However, negotiations have not yet been completed, since the framework for the future relationship between the United Kingdom – which has now become a third country – and the 27 Member States of the European Union has yet to be established. The joint political declaration of 30 January 2020 accompanying the exit Agreement provides for : "an ambitious, broad, deep, flexible partnership in trade and economic cooperation – with a comprehensive and balanced free trade agreement at its centre –, law enforcement and criminal justice, foreign, security and defence policy, as well as broader areas of cooperation"[1]. Initiated in February 2020 the negotiations on the future Agreement have been hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic. The 27 Member States decided that the defence of their positions would, as with the exit Agreement, be entrusted to the European Commission represented by a single negotiator, the Frenchman Michel Barnier. On the British side, former diplomat, David Frost, is in charge of defending the positions of the British government led by Boris Johnson, however the former will be called to another post as Government Adviser for National Security from September 2020. Although face-to-face negotiations resumed in Brussels at the end of June 2020, in substance they have made very modest progress. Hence a legitimate question: can an agreement on the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union be reached by 31 December 2020, while Boris Johnson's government has refused to make use of the possibility offered of extending the transition period and thus the negotiations until 30 June 2020? Is there a risk of ending the year 2020 without a no deal and to have economic relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union governed by the common law of the World Trade Organisation?
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

15926. Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus: with or without the intervention of external actors?

Author:: Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The protests against Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, which have continued beyond the August 9 presidential election, have been surprising in terms of their scale and level of politicization. The protest promises to be long-lasting bringing together people of all ages and professions, but the authorities are refusing to recognize it and are not satisfying any of its demands: to organize new this time democratic elections, to stop repression, to release detainees and political prisoners, to investigate crimes committed by the representatives of law enforcement agencies. Quite the opposite is happening: the crackdown orchestrated by Lukashenka’s regime, after a certain lull between August 12 and 16, is intensifying with hundreds of arrests per day, the repression against the emerging leaders and journalists (from the private media) who report the facts. What are the scenarios of the development of this crisis which seems to have reached an impasse? Can Belarus emerge from it without resorting to foreign mediation? What role could the European Union play?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Protests
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Belarus

15927. Challenges facing the CAP over the next decade

Author:: Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will enter the next decade relieved by Brexit of its fiercest opponent but weakened by the external pressures to which it has been subjected, and disrupted by the enlargement of the European Union. In the 2020s, it will have to take full account, in conjunction with the European Commission's Green Deal, of the environmental and climate issues that are so important for agriculture. It will also have to improve the management of climate, health and market risks, which global warming could aggravate, and strengthen the negotiating capacity of producer organisations with their powerful buyers in the food industry and supermarkets. Budgetary pressure may lead the European Union to distribute direct payments, (which account for three quarters of CAP expenditure), more fairly by placing the burden rather more on large farms, in order to spare the medium-sized family farms, which are still numerous in the western part of the continent. Finally, the CAP should be coordinated with other European policies, particularly trade policy.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Budget, European Union, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

15928. Mediterranean Sea: a paradigm of contemporary conflicts

Author:: Admiral Jean Casabianca
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Looking back at my military career, during which I sailed and battled above and below so many oceans, I am struck by the duality of the Mediterranean Sea. It is indeed for me as well a familiar environment as an area of perpetual uncertainty, which contributed to define me as a man, a sailor and a military leader. Predicators say that the Mediterranean, stage of the first major clashes between civilizations, will not be anymore the international centre of gravity and that the Pacific Ocean will take over this role. It remains however a major hub for the interactions of key strategic competitors.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Mediterranean

15929. European solidarity in times of crisis: a legacy to develop in the face of COVID-19

Author:: Yves Bertoncini
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: Now more than ever, the fight against coronavirus encourages an analysis of the foundations and limits of solidarity between the Member States of the European Union, just as the 70th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration, often cited for its call for "concrete achievements that first create a de facto solidarity".
Topic:: Development, European Union, Solidarity, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

15930. Coronavirus: globalisation is not the cause but the remedy

Author:: Blaise Wilfert
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: While the Covid-19 pandemic is unfolding in all its violence, "globalisation", to read more than one, is said to be the great culprit for what is happening to us, whether it has been the lightning speed of the virus' spread, the impotence of States to stop its progression, the inability of "capitalism" to produce medical equipment or the madness of stock market speculation. The logical consequence of this has been the repeated call, with some pathos, urgently to invent the time “after”, after the follies of globalisation. The magnitude of the shock that Covid-19 represents provides an ideal sounding board to replay a tune that is in fact an old one, familiar to us since the 1990s at least, or even the 1980s, but with an incomparable and therefore particularly disturbing echo. Defined both as liberalization - the triumph of the borderless market economy - and as planetarisation - the unification of the planet through flows of all kinds, information, migrants, ideas and representations, tourists, religious practices - globalisation is said to have become a form of disease fatal to the world. Hence to deglobalise[ 1]. Yet, it has to be said again, more than twenty years after Paul Krugman, globalisation is not to blame, and those who currently claim the opposite, with a communicative passion, pretending to draw conclusions from a lucid analysis of the recent past, rely on biased historical narratives to impose a political agenda, whether explicit or implicit. So, let a historian try to say a word about it, since understanding the times we are in requires understanding the times from whence we have come.
Topic:: Globalization, Markets, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15931. Convergence in Media and Telecom in the face of COVID-19: Europe in a Transatlantic and International Perspective

Author:: Gérard Pogorel and Augusto Preta
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic is tragically affecting our societies worldwide. As we are forced under these extraordinary circumstances to spend more time indoors, severely limiting our movements and journeys, telecommunications networks, communications services and the media are standing in to play a major role in economic and social resilience. They are providing the required tools for a transformed virtual workplace; making entertainment at home possible, at a time when theatres, and sports venues are at a standstill. More than ever before, the transformative nature of digital innovation in the media and telecommunications industries is moving along with the way we are living and working today.
Topic:: International Relations, Communications, Media, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

15932. Challenges and constraints facing a “Geopolitical Commission” in the achievement of European sovereignty

Author:: Pierre Mirel and Xavier Mirel
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: “What we do at home will affect our place in the world and shape relationships with our strategic partners and competitors. That is why we must be a Geopolitical Commission”. To achieve this, "the internal and external dimensions of our work should be harmonised (...) to ensure that our external action becomes more strategic and coherent". This is the essence of the mission entrusted by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on 10 September 2019, to Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission.
Topic:: Sovereignty, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe

15933. Italy and the Libyan Crisis: What Lessons for Foreign Policy?

Author:: Camellia Mahjoubi
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since 2011 the Libyan crisis has never stopped posing questions to the Italian political class and public opinion, showing all its relevance for the definition of the external action – either at the multilateral or bilateral level – of our country. From political mediation to the use of force, from the terrorist threat to the current COVID-19 crisis, from the management of irregular migration to the issue of human rights, Libya continues to represent an important test for Italy’s foreign policy. In recent months, the Libyan conflict has undergone important changes. International mediation under the lead of the United Nations and with the involvement of the regional actors seems to have lost steam and a new intensification of military operations has produced rapid changes in the balance of power on the ground. What have been Italy’s responses to the crisis? What are the objectives and the tools put in place? What lessons can we learn about the strengths and weaknesses of our foreign policy?
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Libya, North Africa, Italy, and North America

15934. Could a Bridge between the EU and Latin America Boost Innovation “Sovereignty” in a Multipolar World?

Author:: Nicola Bilotta and Alissa Siara
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The economic ramifications of COVID-19 will accentuate the technological innovation gap between Latin America and the rest of the world. In a region already suffering from chronic underinvestment in research and development, the strain placed on government budgets by the pandemic-induced economic crisis will push innovation further back down the agenda. The region has compensated for a lack of domestic resources with foreign capital and technology imports from China and the United States. As the US–China relationship becomes more adversarial in the face of COVID, however, Latin America will emerge as a geopolitical battleground whose countries may be forced to choose sides and potentially lose out on capital inflows or technology imports. Navigating this potential storm will involve the region in a search for other options. Public–private partnerships with European Union firms represent one valuable possibility, but Europe and Latin America should first align their innovation agendas.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Institutions, Coronavirus, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China, South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

15935. China and Middle East Security Issues: Challenges, Perceptions and Positions

Author:: Jin Liangxiang
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Middle East and Gulf region face three drivers of tension and instability: those caused by the US’s erratic and unilateral policies, those tied to economic underdevelopment and those linked to growing competition among regional actors. China is and will be facing economic challenges stemming from the Middle East and will face growing calls to assume more active roles in the region, roles which however often go beyond its capabilities or interests. China’s approach to regional security can be categorised as promoting political solutions to disputes, contributing to economic development and providing security resources within the UN framework. China backs regional efforts to achieve peace and security via dialogue, also including extra-regional actors involved in the Middle East. China is sympathetic to Russia’s vision for regional security cooperation, and would support the convening of an international conference on Middle East security issues that includes specific roles for regional and external actors.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Gulf Nations
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

15936. Framing Russia’s Mediterranean Return: Stages, Roots and Logics

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Russia’s return as a major geostrategic actor in the Mediterranean is one of the most significant trends characterising this area over the past few years. Part of a broader geopolitical pluralization of this space, Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria marked a new phase in Moscow’s Mediterranean engagement. Based on a stringent logic of intervening where other powers leave strategic vacuums, Russia has succeeded to carve out an increasingly central role in Mediterranean equilibria, despite its limited resources. Russian diplomatic and economic support for the Syrian regime in Damascus had steadily increased since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Yet, it was Moscow’s direct military intervention in September 2015 that signalled a decisive upgrade in engagement. Moscow’s military involvement shifted the tide of the conflict, proving decisive in avoiding the collapse of the Syrian regime, which is also backed by Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Topic:: Civil War, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Economy, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

15937. COVID-19 in Palestine: A Pandemic in the Face of “Settler Colonial Erasure”

Author:: Yara Hawari
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As of early September 2020 more than 27 million cases of COVID-19 have been recorded worldwide, along with approximately 890,000 deaths. After many months of lockdown, countries are having to re-open despite growing infection rates and fears of a second wave while people adapt to a “new normal” which includes restrictions, social distancing and limited travel. At the start of the lockdowns, many Palestinians commented that the world now finally understood what life was like for them. Particularly in the West Bank and Gaza, the curfews, the closure of public spaces, the inability or difficulty to travel, lingering anxiety and perpetual uncertainty are features common to Palestinian life. However, this new global reality reflects only a fraction of the Palestinian experience of suffering from nearly a century of ongoing settler colonialism.
Topic:: Health, Settler Colonialism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15938. The European Commission’s Mission to Reform EU Migration Policy: Will Member States Play Ball?

Author:: Asli Selin Okyay and Luca Barana
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe’s institutional landscape and political context have evolved considerably over the past year, with implications spanning numerous policy domains, including migration. The formation of the new European Commission, its commitment to deliver a New Pact on Migration and Asylum and the negotiations for the next Multi-Annual Financial Framework (MFF) have set the stage for much needed reforms in the migration field, a policy area still largely driven by the emergency mindset inherited from the 2015–16 “crisis”.
Topic:: Migration, Reform, European Union, Refugees, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Europe

15939. Religion vs. Secularism in Contemporary World Politics

Author:: Cesare Merlini
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As mail-in voting begins for the US November elections, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced plans to visit Pope Francis in Rome. The intent was anticipated in a critical article penned by Pompeo himself in First Things, the authoritative US journal of conservative Catholics. In it, Pompeo explained his visit as aimed at pressing the Vatican to halt its entente with China about the naming of bishops in that country, leading to angry rebukes and a warning that the Pope may in fact refuse to meet the incoming Secretary of State. A couple of weeks earlier, two normalisation agreements involving Israel and the Middle Eastern states of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates were signed with much pomp and fanfare at the White House. The name given to the agreements: The Abraham Accords. This follows Trump’s transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem in 2018. Donald Trump’s efforts to consolidate electoral support from religious groups is not surprising or new. This tactic was instrumental in his previous election in 2016. More recently, one can recall the photo-op at Christ Church, near the White House, with the Holy Bible in his right hand after having ordered the police to dispel Black-Lives-Matter protesters from the area. Or Trump’s decision to be the first sitting president to address the annual anti-abortion March for Life rally earlier this year.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, Elections, and Secularism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15940. The Lebanese Crisis and the Mirage of Natural Gas

Author:: Benedetta Brossa
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Lebanon is teetering on the brink of collapse as mounting economic, political and geopolitical pressures put unprecedented stress on the country’s institutional – and deeply sectarianised – setup. In October 2019, when large scale anti-establishment protests erupted across the country, what has been described as the Lebanese “Ponzi scheme”,[1] a shady mechanism through which the country was able to attract continuous injections of foreign currency to sustain Lebanon’s financial system with artificially inflated interest rates, came to a breaking point. The value of the Lebanese lira dropped significantly, as have socio-economic conditions for large parts of the population. Then came the massive explosion in Beirut, the latest, severe blow to the country’s economy, already suffering from a dysfunctional political apparatus, the recent default on the state’s debt in March 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The tragic explosion reignited popular anger. Lebanese citizens renovated their grievances against the pervasive corruption and sectarianism that has dominated Lebanon’s confessional system, leading the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Mediterranean

15941. War and COVID-19 in Yemen

Author:: Afrah Nasser
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: After Yemen’s 2011 uprising broke out, the country went through a series of political upheavals and cycles of violence that tore the country apart, including the start of a full-scale civil war in 2014 and the Saudi- and UAE-led intervention in 2015. In a context where civilians have been deliberately attacked by all sides, COVID-19 has added a new layer to the unspeakable suffering for millions of civilians in Yemen, whilst Europe has reacted with development aid but has thus far failed to support need for accountability in the conflict.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Health, War, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

15942. “Irregular” Migration and Divergent Understandings of Security in the Sahel

Author:: Kari M. Osland and Henriette U. Erstad
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 September 2020, the EU launched its new Pact on Migration and Asylum. In a refreshingly blunt press-release accompanying the Pact one could read: “The current system no longer works. And for the past five years, the EU has not been able to fix it”. The stated aim of the Pact is a fairer sharing of responsibility and solidarity between member states while providing certainty for individual asylum applicants. This is intended to rebuild trust between EU members as well as improve the capacity to better manage migration. However, whether the Pact will be implemented and have an effect on EU external migration policy in the Sahel remains to be seen.
Topic:: Security, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Sahel

15943. Libya and the COVID-19 Lifecycle: From Distraction to Dissidence

Author:: Anas El Gomati
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: COVID-19 has changed the world and the way we live it, establishing something of a “new normal” as states and societies battle the pandemic and learn to accommodate its multidimensional effects. For Libyans’ living in the midst of conflict, normality and a new normal are difficult to determine. The economy, healthcare system and everyday lives of Libyans’ have been far from normal as a result of the 18-month conflict sparked by General Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to overthrow the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. However, the pandemic and its dynamism has had an impact far beyond the everyday lives of citizens. The lifecycle of the pandemic has had a major impact on the conflict itself. It first served to distract international powers from their diplomatic obligations and peace building in Libya, acting as a cover for local factions and their foreign sponsors to intensify the conflict during the initial global shockwave of the pandemic at the beginning of 2020. Towards the end of 2020, however, the pandemic compounded socio-economic and political pressures in Libya, sparking national demonstrations and dissidence towards the rival factions, leading to political resignations and renewed diplomatic negotiations in the process.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

15944. The Quest to Launch Regional Integration Processes in West Asia and the Arabian Peninsula

Author:: Christian Koch and Adnan Tabatabai
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Given the consequences that security issues yield for the Middle East and beyond and in spite of the failures to date, a regional security process where stakeholders can engage with one another remains a relevant and timely approach, which would be needed to move out of the region’s current cycle of instability. Based on the ongoing Tafahum project, a first step is to establish a shared understanding of regional security issues and what they entail before taking steps towards building a security “architecture” or “system”. In addition, regional cooperation must be framed around both conceptual and operational baskets. A broad agreement on principles of conduct, a focus on regional economic development and the development of civil society interactions are seen as essential elements around which such baskets can be put together.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Political stability, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Middle East, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

15945. Ending the EU’s Ambivalence to Free Movement in Africa

Author:: Roderick Parkes and Mark McQuay
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: When the October 2020 summit between the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU) was postponed, leaders blamed the pandemic. Yet, there was a sense that the issue went deeper. Both sides still resent the other’s handling of what Europeans refer to as the “migration crisis” of 2015. AU officials complain about the EU’s divide-and-rule approach to managing migration, while their European counterparts allege that AU officials encouraged African states to leverage migration flows to extort cash. Yet migration remains an area where the EU and AU policy agendas are in fact broadly aligned, on paper and in political rhetoric at least. The AU has adopted a free movement protocol and is looking at mobility to strengthen the continental labour market and promote intra-African capital flows. The EU has lent its support to the project, keen to build bridges with Africa on a traditionally divisive issue.
Topic:: European Union, Mobility, African Union, and Freedom of Movement
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

15946. The Aftermath: American Power after COVID-19

Author:: Emma Ashford
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: America has been hit hard by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. A combination of poor public health response, differing state guidelines, and lack of political leadership are leading the country into a third, deadly wave of the virus. Yet while the immediate prognosis is pretty dire, the long-term implications of COVID for America’s power potential – and its role in the world – are less clear, and likely less severe than initial assessments suggested. There have been no significant impacts to American military readiness, and while the economic impacts of COVID-19 could potentially undermine the long-term health of the American economy, this is far from a foregone conclusion. However, it is clear that the COVID crisis has largely served to highlight existing trends with the potential to undermine American power, notably political polarisation and domestic underinvestment.
Topic:: Investment, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Polarization
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15947. A Ceasefire with Feet of Clay: The Potential Spoilers of Peace in Libya

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 October 2020, negotiators from the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, the dialogue format between the forces of the UN-recognised Government of the National Accord (GNA) and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), signed a ceasefire in Geneva. Two days later, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced the launch of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), whose first round took place in Tunis between 9-15 November, after virtual sessions started on 28 October. Delegates agreed on a date for elections (24 December 2021) but not a new government, and will reconvene to continue negotiating at the end of November. While the announcement of the ceasefire and the political dialogue held in Tunis is obviously good news, the road ahead remains rife with challenges. The acting UNSMIL head, Stephanie Williams, has warned that many will seek, “for narrow personal and purposes, to corrupt and disrupt” the process. Looking ahead, four dynamics can spoil the process, undermining the prospects for a more sustainable political settlement in Libya: Haftar’s role; the situation of the global oil market; Turkey’s regional ambitions; and the economic interests of militia groups in Tripoli.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Libya and North America

15948. Learning from COVID-19: Implications for the EU Response to Human Smuggling

Author:: Lucia Bird
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic set the backdrop to the EU’s new framework for addressing irregular migration. Yet, this emergency mindset should not dictate that future responses to human smuggling remain focussed on border control, as they have done during the pandemic. We are at a pivotal moment in EU policy-making, following the release of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum[1] and preceding the publication of additional plans for legal migration and improved responses to human smuggling. This is therefore a key time to take stock of how state responses to the pandemic have impacted human smuggling dynamics, in order to build sustainable and humane response frameworks going forward.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Smuggling, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

15949. Lebanon as a Test Case for the EU’s Logic of Governmentality in Refugee Challenges

Author:: Tamirace Fakhoury
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Prior to 2011, Lebanon was no traditional gatekeeper in managing migrant and refugee flows to the EU. Following mass refugee influx from Syria, the small Middle Eastern state acquired key importance in the EU’s architecture of externalisation, alternatively framed as the set of norms and practices that the EU crafts to govern migration from a distance. Lebanon currently hosts more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees and since 2012 the EU has been the key funding power seeking to help the refugee-hosting state cope with the spillover effects that mass displacement brought about on the country. The EU’s recently published New Pact on Migration and Asylum reiterates support to refugees and refugee-hosting countries – including those in Syria’s neighbourhood – as one of the central elements of cooperation with third countries on migration and displacement. After nearly a decade of cooperation between the EU and Lebanon in this area, and ahead of the EU’s new budgetary and policy-planning cycle (2021–27), now is a key moment to critically assess EU-Lebanon cooperation on displacement from Syria.
Topic:: Government, Foreign Aid, European Union, Refugees, Economy, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

15950. Expanding Legal Labour Migration Pathways to the EU: Will This Time Be Different?

Author:: Martin Ruhs
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The European Commission’s recently published “New Pact on Migration and Asylum” calls on EU member states to increase legal labour migration pathways, including for lower-skilled workers. To help achieve this goal, the Pact proposes greater and more effective cooperation with non-EU countries through so-called “Talent Partnerships”. These proposals are not new. The idea of partnerships with non-EU countries that include expanded labour migration programmes was at the heart of the EU’s “Global Approach to Migration” launched in 2005, and this approach has been further discussed and developed over the past 15 years. These ideas, however, have never led to a significant opening of European labour markets to lower-skilled non-EU workers. An obvious question therefore arises: Will this time be different? Will EU member states (which have primary competence in regulating labour immigration from outside the EU) engage with non-EU countries to develop new policies that expand legal labour migration opportunities in meaningful ways? Will these opportunities be inclusive of low- and medium-skilled workers?
Topic:: Migration, Politics, Labor Issues, European Union, Institutions, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe

15951. Why Europe Should Care about Energy Poverty in its Green Transition

Author:: Marta Massera
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In mid-October, the European Commission issued a communication on energy poverty to member states[1] that was published jointly with the Renovation Wave initiative[2] for the building sector under the European Green Deal. The document gave further impetus to the long-standing discussion on energy poverty in Europe and can be related to renewed references to the need for a “just transition” in EU policy. Energy poverty is an important issue in Europe today and a number of recent factors risk exacerbating the problem. Action by member states has thus far been limited and differences persist regarding national definitions and approaches. Addressing energy poverty is urgent and the next months will be a test for Europe’s ability to protect the poorest segment of the society while pursuing increasingly ambitious goals of decarbonisation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

15952. Broadening the Transatlantic Partnership to Address the China Challenge

Author:: Carisa Nietsche
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has been a turning point in Europe’s calculus regarding China. Beijing’s ham-fisted mask diplomacy, attempt to rewrite the pandemic’s origins and use of the World Health Organisation to advance the objectives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) underscored for Europe the nature of Beijing’s objectives. Europe has grown more attuned to the “strategic challenge” China poses in the economic, technology and global governance realms as a result. The growing convergence between US and European perspectives on China provides a solid foundation for future cooperation between the transatlantic partners. Yet, addressing the China challenge will require broadening beyond the transatlantic partnership and bringing Indo-Pacific partners to the table.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Communications, Partnerships, Cybersecurity, Transatlantic Relations, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

15953. Italy, Atlanticism and the Biden Administration: Greater Convergence to Defuse Ambiguity on China

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In September 2019, the once anti-establishment Five Star Movement (Movimento Cinque Stelle – M5S) agreed to enter a ruling alliance with the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico – PD).[1] By establishing this “yellow-red” coalition government with what was considered its political nemesis, the M5S managed to preserve its presence in power and avoid early elections. However, its influence gradually weakened, as attested to by poor performances in local elections. The M5S’s declining political fortunes and the changing composition of the government have a significant foreign policy dimension, especially if addressed through the lens of Italy–US relations. The PD is a solidly pro-Atlanticist party in Italy. The M5S, despite its evolution towards greater pragmatism over the years, remains a source of concern, being still perceived as the most pro-China actor within the Italian political landscape.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Italy, and United States of America

15954. Nuclear Risk Reduction: Looking Back, Moving Forward, and the Role of NATO

Author:: Wilfred Wan
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In a difficult geopolitical environment marked by increased tensions among nuclear-armed and nuclear-allied states, there has emerged an urgent and widespread call for the implementation of practical measures to reduce the risk of nuclear-weapon use – whether intentional or inadvertent. A concerted effort to take risk reduction forward must address the spectrum of use scenarios by drawing on past activities, building on existing agreements and considering innovative approaches. NATO will have a key role to play, given the nuclear nature of the Alliance and the involvement of its members in strategic and regional competition. Alliance activities past and present can provide insight relevant to the development of multilateral risk-reduction measures. At the same time, in highlighting the dynamism and multi-faceted nature of risk, they underline the scale of the challenge ahead.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Risk, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

15955. NATO’s Current and Future Support for Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-proliferation

Author:: Rose Gottemoeller and Steven Hill
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Times may be tough in the field of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation (ADN). But ADN is by no means dead. This is a moment of opportunity, a chance to look to the future and consider what we should be doing differently to improve the international architecture for ADN in the future. NATO is in the process of considering how it can adapt to continue to be relevant in the changing global security environment. The time is therefore ripe for the Alliance to take on an enhanced role in preserving and strengthening more effective ADN. There are a number of areas in which it can support these efforts. These include specific steps to preserve and implement the Non-Proliferation Treaty, modernise the Vienna Document, adapt nuclear arms control regimes and deal with emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs). NATO should position itself as a focal point for innovation in the ADN area, including promoting advances in verification, improving the multinational sharing and use of data, and advancing dialogue related to outer space.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nonproliferation, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

15956. Russia's Foreign and Security Policy in the Middle East: Entering the 2020s

Author:: Ekaterina Stepanova
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: As Russia has become a major external player in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to its military engagement in Syria since 2015, it has acted as a balancer and mediator in several regional controversies and has continued to serve as a security guarantor for the Syrian state. This course has brought Moscow some practical dividends, such as growing economic and military-technical cooperation with select MENA countries, and has spurred its broader international profile. However, entering the 2020s, the risks of more active engagement in the Middle East have also mounted, making Russia’s balancing act more difficult. In three cases where Russia’s involvement has been visible (Syria, Libya and the Israeli-Palestinian problem), evolving developments challenge Moscow’s acquired influence and multi-vector approach, but also create new opportunities for its engagement and mediation. Above all, the 2020 US–Iran crisis catalysed the urgent need for structured regional dialogue, especially across the Persian Gulf. While this requires direct interaction between the region’s main antagonists, the initial impulse to unlock the trans-Gulf impasse might need to come from the outside. A process-oriented blueprint for inclusive multilateral security in the Gulf proposed by Russia in 2019 is a step in the right direction, but to be activated it may need to come as part of some broader international initiative.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, North Africa, and Syria

15957. Emergency Powers, COVID-19 and the New Challenge for Human Rights

Author:: Michele Collazzo and Alexandra Tyan
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: “A human crisis that is fast becoming a human rights crisis”. UN Secretary General António Guterres was among the first to raise the alarm about possible human rights implications of government measures to fight COVID-19. Since its outbreak, 87 states – both authoritarian and established democracies – have declared a state of emergency to curb the spread of the virus, which implies certain derogations from international human rights conventions. Protecting the right to life and physical integrity are fundamental duties facing government authorities, commitments enshrined in law – specifically Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). Derogations from human rights conventions are permissible under certain circumstances, but any limitation must be motivated by absolute necessity, must not be disproportionate and must be limited in time.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Democracy, Media, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15958. Global Financial Imbalance: Firm-level Evidence from Korea

Author:: Tae Soo Kang, Kyunghun Kim, and Yuri Kim
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the global financial crisis, low interest rates have continued throughout the world. However, financial imbalance has deepened as much of the expanded investment during low interest rates did not lead to increased productivity. This study focused on the increase of marginal firms as a result of the adverse effects of financial imbalances on firms. The marginal firms were identified based on the company's financial statement, and the share of marginal firms by country was compared and analyzed using Worldscope data. As a detailed analysis on the marginal firms, the impact of borrowing interest rate on the possibility of becoming a marginal company was analyzed in the case of Korea with KED data. According to the international comparison, East Asia including Korea, China and Japan has shown a lower share of marginal companies than Europe, South Asia and Latin America. Empirical results through Panel Logit with Sector Fixed Effect Model show that the borrowing rate has a negative correlation with the probability the company will become a marginal company in the case of Korea. However, the impact of an increase in borrowing rates on the likelihood of becoming a marginal company depends on the degree of financial vulnerability. Specifically, an increase in the borrowing rate has a greater impact on the possibility to become ICR<1 in the companies with higher financial vulnerability indexes.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Business, and Business Management
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

15959. Defined Contribution Funded Social Security and Labor Supply: Focus on Mexican Social Security Reform in 1997

Author:: Sungwoo Hong
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Countries adopting a defined benefit pay-as-you-go (DB PAYG) regime have two options to solve the issue of financial unsustainability: (1) a parametric reform, which alters policies within DB PAYG regime, and (2) a structural reform, which changes the regime from DB PAYG to a defined contribution funded (DC) system. In this study, focusing on the structural reform of Mexico in 1997, I investigate whether structural social security reform affects labor supply. The findings suggest that the change in the social security regime increased both labor force participation and work hours per week. However, in the case of the elderly, the intensive margin effect on labor supply was not statistically significant.
Topic:: Reform, Tax Systems, Social Security, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and Mexico

15960. Bargaining and War: On the Communication Equilibrium in Conflict Games

Author:: Youngseok Park and Colin Campbell
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We present a version of Baliga and Sjostrom’s (2012a) conflict games with two asymmetric players. The players contemplate whether to take an active engagement action to compel the leader of a neighboring state (an extremist) to give up his risky weapons. We show that a player with greater damage from the extremist is more likely to choose an active engagement action than a player with lesser damage. Furthermore, we examine cheap-talk communication equilibria with the extremist. The likelihood of both players choosing the active engagement action decreases by a hawkish extremist who can send a provocative message, if both players are coordination types. If both players are opportunistic types, a dovish extremist can send an appeasement message that causes one player to be more active while another to be more inactive. Lastly, we show that there does not exist any other communication equilibrium for either kind of extremist, for any other combination of player types.
Topic:: Political Economy, International Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Asia, Korea, and Global Focus

15961. Determinants of Korean Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Do Korean Firms Respond to the Labor Costs of Host Countries?

Author:: Hanbyul Ryu and Young Sik Jeong
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Low cost of labor has been one of the major incentives that foreign firms invest in many developing countries. Yet, many developing countries including China and ASEAN have recently experienced a rapid increase in labor costs. Using the wage information provided by JETRO, this study examines how Korean FDI outflow is affected by the increase in labor costs of the manufacturing industry in host countries. The results indicate that the worker’s and engineer’s wages in Asian developing countries, who accumulated at least 3 and 5 years of work experience, have generally a negative impact on Korean FDI outflow. However, there exist positive relationships between the wages and FDI when the wages stay at very low levels. We do not find evidence that labor costs make a significant impact on Korean FDI outflow to European or Developed countries.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Korea

15962. Development of the Russian Far East in 20 Years of the Putin Era: Seeking New Directions for Deepening Cooperation between Korea and Russia

Author:: Joungho Park, Seok Hwan Kim, Boogyun Kang, Pavel A. Minakir, Artem G. Isaev, Anna B. Bardal, and Denis V. Suslov
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study is the outcome of a joint research project commemorating the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the cooperative relationship between the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and the Institute for Economic Research of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI). As is well known, the year 2020 marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Korea and Russia. Therefore, it is time for the two countries to prepare for the “2.0 Era of Korea-Russia Cooperation” while comprehensively evaluating existing achievements and tasks. In particular, in order to build a sustainable relationship between the two countries, it is necessary to establish a strategic contact point between Korea’s New Northern Policy and Russia’s New Eastern Policy, which can be realized through bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the Far East. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to understand the main directions, key objectives, and political and economic implications of Russia’s policies in the Far East, which have been strategically pursued since the launch of Putin’s fourth term, and to explore new opportunities and possibilities for development cooperation in the Far East. We hope that this book will serve as a useful guide to open a new path for Far East development cooperation marking the 30th anniversary of Korea-Russia diplomatic relations.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Asia, and Korea

15963. The Components of Free Trade Agreements and Their Effects on International Trade

Author:: Moonhee Cho, Young Gui Kim, Kyong Hyun Koo, Hyeri Park, and Hyeyoon Keum
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We analyzes the effects that the components of FTA have on international trade. According to the empirical results, the more free trade agreements contain WTO+ and WTO-X provisions and the more legally enforceable these provisions are, the more bilateral trade increases. We also find that the effects of FTA's provisions on trade depend on the economic level of FTA partner countries.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Free Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15964. Chinaʹs Startup Ecosystem Policy and Implications

Author:: Sangbaek Hyun, Hyojin Lee, Yunmi Oh, and Koun Cho
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The Chinese government is moving toward a qualitative growth model in the era of “New Normal,” transitioning from the existing quantitative growth model. In line with the transition, since 2015 the Chinese government has been implementing a strategy of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation,” which involves building a startup ecosystem in order to solve youth unemployment and create new growth engines. Thanks to the success story of China’s BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) and these new policies by the Chinese government, the startup entrepreneurship boom in China has grown rapidly, together with an explosive expansion of infrastructure and platforms for startups. To determine whether China’s economy can be transformed into an innovative economy, we need to carefully examine and evaluate China’s strategy and status of developing the startup ecosystem.
Topic:: Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth, Unemployment, and Startup
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15965. The Networking Strategy of Contemporary Chinese Diplomacy

Author:: Jai Chul Heo
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: China is actively building Network Power in economic and traditional security and non-traditional security areas, while in some cases maximizing its own interests by using the Network Power already formed. In particular, China is building Collective Power at a rapid pace in significant areas. China also actively participated in existing networks and established Positional Power by preoccupying important positions. However, China’s Network Power still seems to have a long way to go in terms of Programming Power to build new systems, unlike Collective or Positional Power. What is notable in the process of analyzing China’s Network Power is that competition between the U.S. and China is fierce over Network Power.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

15966. Approaches to Labor Demand Forecast in Developing Economies and Their Implications for Korea's ODA

Author:: Young Ho Park, Yejin Kim, and Minji Jeong
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study aims to develop systematic labor forecast methods, thereby contributing to increasing the efficiency of TVET ODA. This study suggests a new labor demand forecast methodology that combines quantitative and qualitative analyses and applies it to Vietnam, estimating labor demand by occupations in the country’s wireless communication equipment industry. This methodology starts with a statistical projection of Vietnam’s future labor market and industry. Subsequently, this study uses an enterprise survey and stakeholder interviews to complement missing information, as Vietnam's statistical system, like that of many other emerging economies, lacks some detailed data. Currently, the “element occupations” group takes the largest portion in the labor demand by industry and occupation. According to our results, however, the “plant and machine operators and assemblers” group is expected to gradually increase, thus becoming the largest occupation group in the wireless communication equipment industry in the near future. Given the various circumstances surrounding the labor market in developing countries, other alternatives in addition to our hybrid method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis can also produce well-founded labor force projections. This study suggests analytical methodologies using global value chain (GVC) and big data as innovative alternatives, which can complement the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods. ODA implementing agencies would benefit from paying attention to the labor forecasting methods presented in this research, and devising policies supporting these methods in order to properly apply them in reality.
Topic:: Communications, Labor Issues, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia, Vietnam, and Korea

15967. Integrating Climate Change into Development Cooperation – Korea's Experience

Author:: Jione Jung and Jihei Song
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea has reached milestones in development cooperation over the past two decades. At the same time, it has sought for various measures to better incorporate climate consideration in its cooperation activities. However, a number of challenges remain and further action is required in improving the system and practices to better integrate climate change into Korea’s development cooperation. We aim at providing an overview of Korea’s progress in integrating climate change into its development cooperation to share the experiences and to highlight some achievements. In doing so, we first review how other developed countries have promoted climate change integration. Through comparison with Germany, the United States, and Switzerland, we summarized several achievements made by Korea in the area of development cooperation. In addition, we identified areas for further improvement to better integrate climate change into development cooperation, as well as projections for the next phase of Korea’s development cooperation to begin in 2021.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

15968. Foreign Aid to Fragile States: How Effective Does It Work?

Author:: Yul Kwon, Jisun Jeong, Yoon Sun Hur, Jihei Song, Aila Yoo, and Mi Lim Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Korea has put much effort into providing aid for fragile states in efficient and effective ways. As a part of such efforts, Korea established the Fragile States Assistance Strategy in 2017. However, there is still room for improvement in terms of the effectiveness of Korea’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) implementation under fragile and conflict-affected situations. Accordingly, the study aims to suggest policy suggestions for Korea’s development cooperation in fragile states by comparing and analyzing the current status, policies, and characteristics of aid to fragile states in major donor countries, including Germany, Australia, Denmark, and Japan. In addition, we review Korea’s case and draw following policy implications to tackle the remaining challenges. First, it is requisite for Korea to consolidate the whole-of-government approach and reciprocal coordination mechanisms to support for fragile states for overcoming fundamental causes of fragilites. Second, Korea should choose proper types of aid and sectoral aid allocation suitable for overcoming vulnerabilities and development challenges efficiently and effectively in fragile and conflict-affected states. Lastly, the Korean government should conduct a fragility analysis and manage projects systematically.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, Fragile States, and Donors
Political Geography:: Asia and Korea

15969. The Way Forward for WTO Reform: Agricultural Subsidies and Special and Differential Treatments

Author:: Jin Kyo Suh, Ji Hyun Park, and Min-Sung Kim
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The multilateral trading system has been in crisis. The world economy has changed significantly since the WTO replaced the previous GATT system and new challenges are quickly piling on top of the old ones. The rising emerging countries and the relative decline of traditional economic members, together with the need to deal with complex new issues such as climate change and e-commerce and digital trade, are shaking the foundations on which the WTO was built some 25 years ago. There is also growing momentum among many WTO members to ‘modernize’ the WTO, including the Appellate Body although the details and feasibility of reform are unclear at this stage. In this perspective, we suggest some ideas on both trade-distorting farm subsidies and S&DT which are the two important issues in the WTO negotiations.
Topic:: Agriculture, Reform, Economy, Multilateralism, WTO, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15970. How Chinese Local Governments are Expanding Foreign Economic Cooperation

Author:: Sanghun Lee, Hongwon Kim, Joohye Kim, Jiwon Choi, and Jaehee Choi
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As the Chinese economy becomes more advanced and the internal and external economic environment surrounding China changes, so too does China’s strategy for external openness and economic cooperation. Accordingly, specific policies are diversifying from the past focus on manufacturing and foreign direct investment to services, overseas investment, bilateral and multilateral FTAs, and bilateral investment treaties (BITs). As the central government’s policy stance changes, China’s local governments are also promoting external openness and cooperation based on regional development stages, industrial structure, and regional development policies, reflecting the central government’s strategy. In particular, after the 19th Party Congress, the central government showed a strategic stance expanding external openness. In response, local governments have moved away from the traditional method of cooperation in the manufacturing sector centered on industrial complexes, and in recent years various cooperative methods have been promoted, including regional economic integration, service and investment, the use of FTAs, and innovations in institutions to expand external openness. Along with the shift in China’s foreign economic strategy, the economic cooperation environment surrounding Korea and China is changing as well, including the strengthening of protectionism, structural changes in the Chinese economy, the Korea-China FTA coming into effect, and the launch of follow-up negotiations. Therefore Korea needs to find new strategies and measures for economic cooperation with China, making it time to find new ways to expand cooperation with China’s central and local governments. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyze the strategies, detailed policies and major cases of China’s central and local governments’ external openness and economic cooperation, and to draw policy implications for strengthening economic cooperation between Korea and China in the future.
Topic:: Government, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

15971. Determinants of FDI in Transition Economies and Implications for North Korea

Author:: Cheol-won Lee, Hyung-gon Jeong, and Min-suk Park
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: North Korean authorities have been seeking changes in North Korea’s economic policy since the Kim Jong Un regime took power. Along with decentralization, the government is trying to increase efficiency and productivity within the socialist economic system, and as part of this policy it has designated 27 economic development zones to attract foreign investment. Foreign direct investment plays a crucial role in economic growth for low-income countries such as North Korea, which lacks capital and technology. This study discusses North Korea's foreign investment policy and tasks ahead of its government to revitalize the economy, based on the premise that nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the US proceed smoothly. First of all, in order to derive policy tasks, we compared and analyzed the achievements and policies of transition countries in Asia and Eastern Europe in terms of attracting FDI, also analyzing the determinants of FDI inflows, after which we present policy tasks for North Korean authorities. As South Korea may very well become the largest investor in North Korea, our study also discusses tasks for the Korean government to pursue in order for Korean companies to successfully invest in North Korea.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Transition
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

15972. U.S.-China Technological Rivalry and Its Implications for Korea

Author:: Wonho Yeon
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Recent developments in advanced technology are changing the concept of hegemonic competition. The key feature of technologies in the 4th Industrial Revolution is dual-use. Emerging technologies such as 5G, AI, big data, robotics, aerospace, supercomputers, and quantum computer-related technologies can be used for both civilian and military purposes. The more you invest in the development of advanced technologies, the closer you will be to economic and military hegemony. Therefore, it is no wonder that the U.S. harbors great concerns facing the rise of China in these advanced technologies. To estimate and compare the innovation productivity of the U.S. and that of China, this study constructs a structural estimation model in which each country produces international patents using R&D expenditures and R&D researchers. Empirical results have presented novel findings indicating that China’s innovation productivity has surpassed that of the U.S. since 2015. At the same time we can observe that the U.S. has the world’s largest intellectual property surplus and keeps expanding it, while China’s intellectual property deficit has been growing every year. Given the two contradictory facts - China’s high innovation productivity and low intellectual property balance - we can conclude that China is strong at “innovation” but weak at “invention.” Knowing this, the U.S. eventually began to target this vulnerability. This is the U.S.’ Tech-Decoupling strategy. To achieve U.S.-China tech decoupling, the U.S. has been strengthening trade and investment sanctions against China. In specific, the U.S. has been utilizing the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), Section 889 of the 2019 National Defense Authority Act, and the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA). In return, China is responding to the U.S. sanctions with the new “Long March” strategy rather than a tit-for-tat strategy. In other words, China has been setting long-term aims and responding to the U.S. sanctions by improving institutional arrangements, refining industrial policies, and developing its own technologies such as “Dual-circulation strategy” and “New Infrastructure Plan.” Ironically, increasing pressure from the U.S. is expected to further strengthen China’s R&D capabilities in advanced technology and accelerate its competitiveness in emerging industries. With the onset of the 4th Industrial Revolution, China is rapidly closing the quality gap and technology gap in major industries where Korea has a comparative advantage. If Korea does not adequately respond to changes, it may be difficult to maintain a comparative advantage over China. Thus, now that U.S.-China tensions are intensifying, Korea is facing a pivotal moment in determining the future path of its economy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Sanctions, Investment, Innovation, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America

15973. Belt and Road Initiatives: China and South Korea's Economic Ties with South Asia and Nepal

Author:: Bama Dev Sigdel
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The main objective of this article is to assess the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in terms of economic interrelations between Asian countries mainly China, Korea, India and Nepal. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the most ambitious economic strategies in modern times that alters the economic, political and social relationship between Eastern and Western societies. It not only improves transport networks and facilitates trade, but also raises GDP of many economies. For China, BRI manifests its intention to become the next global power through bigger market access and economic opportunities. Although South Asia is less developed economically, it has high strategic utility for the BRI, which has drawn attention from China to deepen its relations in the region. On the other hand, South Korea has also emerged as a soft power in Asia. It has been playing a significant role in Asia by contributing the majority of its aid, i.e., 35 per cent in Asian economies and a major share of its FDI, i.e., 34.1 per cent. With the rapidly increasing growth of South Korea, it also has a growing relationship with ASEAN and other South Asian economies such as India to reduce its dependence on traditional trade allies. Moreover, for least developed economies like Nepal, the BRI can bring improved infrastructure, needed technology, managerial talents and greater connectivity to the world. South Korea can yield higher benefits through its relation with South Asia and especially Nepal through expansion of export and market access, access to cheap workable manpower to cope with its rising aging population, and less dependence on traditional allies through its investment in South Asian region.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Nepal

15974. The Value-added Creation Effect of Global Value Chain Participation: Industry-level Evidence from APEC Member Economies

Author:: Innwon Park and Soonchan Park
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We analyze the value-added creation effect of GVC participation by applying a standard fixed effects regression model analysis with economy-wide country-industry data. We use OECD Inter-country Input-Output Tables covering 64 countries (21 APEC members and 43 non-APEC members) and 35 industries (1 Agriculture, forestry and fishing, 3 Mining, 16 Manufacturing, and 15 Service) between 2005 and 2015. We find that APEC member economies’ participation in GVC activities is not distinct from non-APEC member economies but the causal relationship between GVC participation and created domestic value-added is much stronger in APEC member economies. More specifically, from the qualitative evaluation on statistical data, we find that backward linkage has been stronger than forward linkage and both have been recently decreasing. The APEC industries’ upstream positions in production line have been slightly more distinguished than non-APEC industries. From the econometric regression analysis, we find that forward participation in GVCs is more desirable than backward participation in terms of creating domestic value-added. We also find that the industry position in middle stages of production line in contrast to earlier and later stages creates higher domestic value-added per output unit. This implies that the firm-specific conventional U-shaped “Smile Curve Hypothesis” is not applicable at the economy-wide country-industry level, especially in APEC member economies. This finding supports that manufacturing industries are still a major driving force for less developed APEC member economies to move up the development ladder. Considering that gains from GVC participation are diversified across industries and upgrading country-industry positions in GVCs is competitive among the interconnected countries, we strongly recommend for APEC member economies to construct effective domestic value chains and coordinate with other members during their process of upgrading GVC participation.
Topic:: Economies, Global Value Chains, and APEC
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15975. Measuring Convergences and Divergences in APEC RTAs/FTAs: a text-mining approach

Author:: Jeongmeen Suh
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In this paper, I suggest that text mining analysis of regional trade agreements (RTAs) can be a suitable methodology to develop a tangible measure of convergence between RTAs. By utilizing well-established text similarity concepts in related literatures, I attempt to investigate how much RTAs in APEC are converging in terms of how much similar RTA texts are. Furthermore, which areas of RTA converge more or less will be examined. The main results of the study are as follows. The RTAs signed by APEC members are gradually converging over time, and they converged (in terms of 5-gram Jaccard similarity) at an annual average of 8% for all RTAs (both inter- and intra-regional) while 9.7% for intra-regional RTAs only. The areas that converged the most are service and transparency chapters, which show 2.2 times and 1.6 times higher level of convergence than the average, respectively. The objective and intuitive indicators of regional norm convergence are expected to provide a common understanding for setting goals and strategies for regional economic integration in the future.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, Trade, Economic Integration, Regional Economy, and APEC
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15976. Financial Inclusion Through Fintech in the Digital Economy

Author:: Eunsook Seo and Kyeongwon Yoo
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Since the 2008 global financial crisis, including the recent COVID 19 pandemic, low interest rates and low economic growth have continued around the world. In spite of this low interest rate trend, as the economic downturn prolongs, there is a situation of concern called the “new normal” of low interest rates and low economic growth, and low prices. In this new normal economic structure, the rapid progress of aging is increasing the necessity and desire for asset accumulation. In addition, digital finance such as Fin-tech with the evolution of the underlying technologies and the emergence of new technologies has replaced or improved many functions of existing finance in the advent of the 4th industrial revolution era. These changes are expected to bring benefits to the individual and corporate finance sectors, which have been subject to financial inclusion. On the other hand, digital finance, which is changing at such a rapid pace, may further isolate some individuals who were in the blind spot of finance, such as the elderly, and a support system for this is an issue that should be included in the policy of financial inclusion in each country. In this paper we find that Asian countries like other regions have achieved tangible results in financial inclusion while achieving financial deepening. When looking through various financial inclusion indicators such as holding accounts and loans, ATMs, and bank branches, the Asian region has achieved similar or superior performance to other regions. Compared to the income level, the growth of financial inclusion in Asia was found to be attributable to better performance in middle-income countries than in other similar regions. High-income countries in Asia are performing somewhat lower than similar peer groups in other regions, but this seems to be due to stagnation of growth. More seriously, financial inclusion in low-income countries in Asia is not appearing faster than in other income groups. In Asian countries there appears to be a wide variation in regional financial inclusion. However, Asian countries are expanding around the younger generation in the use of ICT technology that is helpful in spreading financial inclusion so if digital inclusive finance centered on Fintech is properly applied, Asian countries will become a new model for digital financial inclusion. However, since the gap in the use of Fintech in the region is large, how to fill this gap is being raised as an important policy task for each country as well as the whole region. We also tentatively examined the effects of financial inclusion and digital financial inclusion in the Asian region using the Asian country panel data collected from WDI and Global Findex data. Looking at the implications of the empirical analysis results even though it is very cautious to interpret the results of this analysis due to the lack of data of inclusive finance in Asia., first, the expansion of financial inclusion(such as ATM) in Asia seems to have some relationship with the reduction of poverty rates and income inequality which is measured with Gini coefficient. And the expansion of internet usage in Asia seems to have some relationship with the reduction of poverty rates and income inequality although we use it as the proxy variables instead of the digital financial inclusion variables. Lastly, the higher share of rural population which is used as a proxy for digital divide, which may occur due to the expansion of digital inclusive finance in Asia, has the potential to erode some of these achievements, but there is still a possibility that the expansion of inclusive finance will be effective. Despite the likelihood of success in digital inclusive finance in the future, digital divide spreads due to various gaps such as between urban and rural areas, between young and old, between low and high income, and between men and women, occurring in Asian countries and may worsen the performance of inclusive finance. Thus the governments in the region need to actively intervene to resolve these gaps. In addition, it is necessary to close the digital gaps that is occurring between countries through policy cooperation among APEC members. Considering the situation that the degree of development of Fintech in each member is expanding financial inclusion, it is necessary for Korean financial companies to set up an advancement strategy that focuses on the financially marginalized class based on the advanced system strategy of credit rating based on big data. Our analysis results will give some implications for the New Southern Policy. Personal and SME finance are very important business areas when financial companies currently enter the ASEAN region, and accurate analysis of each member' current status for Fintech or digital finance and financial inclusion should be given priority in terms of business expansion.
Topic:: Poverty, Financial Crisis, Finance, Income Inequality, COVID-19, Inclusion, and Digital Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

15977. An Uneven Welcome: Latin American and Caribbean Responses to Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migration

Author:: Andrew Selee and Jessica Bolter
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The sudden mass movement of people fleeing political and economic crises in Venezuela and political unrest in Nicaragua has transformed the migration landscape in Latin America and the Caribbean. Approximately 4.8 million Venezuelans had emigrated by December 2019, the vast majority remaining in the region, and as many as 100,000 Nicaraguans have moved to neighboring Costa Rica since early 2018. This report examines how 11 countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guyana, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay—are responding to the mass outflows. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and interviews with government officials and representatives of nongovernmental organizations, migrant-led groups, and international actors, the study analyzes efforts to provide newcomers with legal status and to integrate them into schools, health-care systems, and local labor markets—measures that are important for both migrants and the communities in which they are settling. Overall, receiving countries have shown openness and even creativity, providing legal status to many and access to basic education and emergency health care to most. But as the exodus continues and it becomes clear that large numbers of Venezuelans are likely to remain in their host countries in the mid- to long term, the initially warm welcome has begun to cool in places. Capacity constraints in many education and health-care systems, which existed prior to the arrival of large numbers of newcomers, have also become more acute. Looking ahead, the report sets out a range of recommendations for both receiving countries and the international community. Among them: balancing security and flexibility in entry requirements; strengthening asylum systems and other, more nimble legal pathways; and streamlining credential recognition so migrants’ skills can benefit local communities and economies.
Topic:: Education, Health, Immigration, Employment, Economy, Welfare, and Skills
Political Geography:: Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, and Venezuela

15978. The Patchy Landscape of State English Learner Policies under ESSA

Author:: Leslie Villegas and Delia Pompa
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: When the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) was signed into law in 2015, it was hailed as a significant step forward for English Learner (EL) students. The law aimed to raise the profile of accountability for ELs, including in terms of their progress towards English proficiency and their performance in academic subjects. More than four years on, all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have submitted plans to the U.S. Department of Education describing how they intend to meet their commitments under ESSA. But despite anticipation of a clear vision for the future of EL education policy, these plans offer a rather fractured picture and considerable variation. This report provides a detailed breakdown of key aspects of EL education outlined in these state plans. It examines policies governing how students are identified as ELs, assessed, and eventually exited from EL status once they reach proficiency; how their academic achievement is tracked; and the extent to which they are included in state accountability systems. On the whole, the authors conclude, ESSA has fostered more consistency within (though not between) states on matters such as EL identification and reclassification procedures. However, the law has significant shortcomings in other critical areas. For example, it provides no guidance to states on how to address cases involving ELs who do not reach proficiency within the state-determined timeline. The complexity of ESSA’s state accountability framework—with elements pertaining to ELs scattered across it—can also make it difficult to understand how and how much ELs’ performance counts in school accountability ratings. While it is too soon to understand the full impact of ESSA on EL students' academic outcomes and English acquisition, the report points to a number of key areas that merit careful attention from education policymakers and researchers in the coming years.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Law, Language, and ESL
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15979. Chasing Efficiency: Can Operational Changes Fix European Asylum Systems?

Author:: Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: With new EU leadership having taken office in late 2019, Brussels is hungry for fresh ideas that will either revive or reform the Common European Asylum System. The scale and pace of asylum-seeker arrivals on European shores in 2015–16 pushed many Member State systems to a breaking point and brought into glaring focus problems—such as incomplete registration of new arrivals and lengthy case processing backlogs—that existed even before the crisis. Several years on, proposals to address these and other issues through reforms to the EU legal framework for asylum have stalled. Yet, this has also been a period of intense innovation at the national level. Member States have tested new or revamped old ideas to improve the operation of their asylum systems—how they register those seeking protection, offer them reception and material assistance, investigate their protection claims, and then, if their cases are rejected, return them to their origin countries. This MPI Europe-Bertelsmann Stiftung report examines these Member State responses and the wealth of lessons, as well as some cautionary tales, they offer as European leaders contemplate future changes. Among the innovative approaches are the creation in Germany and France of “first-arrival centers” to swiftly register and secure accommodation for newcomers, Swiss “processing centers” that bring together all stakeholders involved in the asylum procedure to make high-quality decisions more quickly, and the Dutch and Swedish “triage” or “track” systems that assign incoming cases to tailored asylum procedures. Understanding this operational dimension—the nuts and bolts of EU asylum systems—is essential for efforts to secure durable improvements. As the author writes, “The era of using (purely) legislative reform to attempt to fix European asylum systems and preserve the integrity of protection regimes has come to an end; the future lies with policy-making approaches, such as a strategic roadmap, that mobilize the full set of tools available.” This is the final report for the Making Asylum Systems Work in Europe initiative, which aims to contribute to efforts to build the capacity of national asylum systems and improve cooperation between EU Member States.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe

15980. Immigration and U.S. National Security: The State of Play Since 9/11

Author:: Amy Pope
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The wide-ranging reforms that followed the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States significantly strengthened the national security capabilities of immigration agencies. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was created to bridge gaps between the intelligence community and immigration functions. Yet, the restructuring was not comprehensive, and threats to national security continue to evolve. In addition, while the tendency to frame immigration policy through a security lens predates the Trump administration, this now routine practice clouds the picture of who and what pose a threat. This report takes a critical look at the increasingly complex security threats U.S. immigration policy must manage—from public-health emergencies, such as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, to the activities of transnational criminal organizations. It assesses the tools available to respond to these threats, and the successes and challenges to date in innovating as risks evolve. To do so, it traces the evolution of the country’s immigration and border control system, with a focus on how institutions and processes have developed since 9/11. While the U.S. government has made important progress in shoring up weaknesses in its defenses at the nexus of immigration processes and national security, this analysis identifies a number of critical gaps that remain—from a need to more clearly define mission space, to effectively sharing information and transitioning to electronic-based systems. Under the Trump administration, resources and political will have also been steered away from core DHS national security missions, including disaster response, cyber security, and general policy and planning in favor of immigration enforcement measures focused on low-risk unauthorized migrants and asylum seekers. The challenge ahead, the author writes, is to “rebuild the department’s credibility at home and with foreign partners, while recalibrating resource allocations and strengthening its capacity to respond to and manage the most pressing national security threats.” This report is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative's home page.
Topic:: International Cooperation, National Security, Immigration, Infrastructure, Governance, Border Control, Refugees, Resettlement, and Asylum
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15981. Using Evidence to Improve Refugee Resettlement: A Monitoring and Evaluation Road Map

Author:: Aliyyah Ahad, Camille Le Coz, and Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The refugee resettlement landscape has shifted considerably in recent years. A number of countries in Europe and elsewhere have launched or expanded their resettlement programs, and some have experimented with new models such as community-based or private sponsorship. At the same time, the United States—long the world’s largest resettlement country—has significantly cut its refugee admissions, leaving other countries to take the lead in global efforts to address displacement. For new and longstanding resettlement programs alike, it is vital that policymakers and program designers have the tools to gauge whether resettlement is meeting its objectives, to facilitate continuous learning, and to ensure that funding is being well spent. Robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) holds the key. Yet many resettlement programs do not have a strong M&E culture. This report examines the added value that M&E can bring to refugee resettlement programs and identifies common obstacles that have kept countries from creating or expanding their M&E operations to date. It then lays out a road map for kickstarting this process—from finding the right “champion” to drive change, to identifying which of a program’s strategic and operational goals to monitor and evaluate, to identifying existing sources of information and designing new data collection tools. These insights are drawn in part from a pilot M&E project conducted by MPI Europe in partnership with resettlement authorities in Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands under the framework of the European Union Action on Facilitating Resettlement and Refugee Admission through New Knowledge (EU-FRANK) project. This report was written as part of the EU-FRANK project, which is financed by the European Asylum, Migration, and Integration Fund (AMIF) and led by Sweden. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are partner countries. More MPI Europe research for the EU-FRANK project can be found on this series page.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Law, Refugees, Immigrants, Resettlement, Asylum, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

15982. A Rockier Road to U.S. Citizenship? Findings of a Survey on Changing Naturalization Procedures

Author:: Randy Capps and Carlos Echeverría-Estrada
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Becoming a citizen benefits immigrants and U.S. communities in a variety of ways, including by promoting integration and enabling immigrants to vote and run for public office, sponsor close relatives for immigration, and travel visa free to many countries. Citizens also earn more than noncitizens with similar characteristics, and these higher earnings lead to greater economic activity and higher tax payments. For the approximately 9 million immigrants eligible to naturalize, however, the hurdles to becoming a U.S. citizen appear to be growing. This report presents the Migration Policy Institute’s analysis of a 2019 national survey conducted by the Immigrant Legal Resource Center of 110 naturalization assistance providers. The study aims to understand how U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) naturalization procedures have changed during the Trump administration. USCIS continues to approve the vast majority of citizenship applications, with an approval rate that has hovered around the 90-percent mark since fiscal year 2010, but the time it takes to process an application has grown considerably. This appears to be due at least in part to changing adjudication policies and practices, including those described by the surveyed organizations: About one-quarter of survey respondents reported their clients missed interviews when USCIS sent notices to incorrect addresses, sent them too late, or sent them to the attorney but not the applicant. Interviews had doubled in length, from 20–30 minutes to 45–60 minutes, according to one-quarter of respondents. More than one-third reported USCIS more often issued requests for evidence to support applications, especially for documents related to tax compliance and income, continuous residency and physical presence, marriage and child support, and criminal history. USCIS officers asked detailed questions not directly related to citizenship eligibility, and administered the English and civics tests differently, often more strictly, according to 10 percent of respondents. These changes were underway before a trio of new 2020 developments that threaten to further increase the application backlog and make it more difficult for eligible immigrants to access citizenship: a COVID-19-related suspension of USCIS operations for three months, the likely furlough of two-thirds of the agency’s staff due to a major budget shortfall, and a planned increase in the cost of filing a citizenship application alongside new restrictions on eligibility for fee waivers for low-income applicants.
Topic:: Immigration, Law, Citizenship, Naturalization, and Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15983. Dismantling and Reconstructing the U.S. Immigration System: A Catalog of Changes under the Trump Presidency

Author:: Sarah Pierce and Jessica Bolter
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Through bold, sweeping changes as well as less-noted technical adjustments, the Trump administration has dramatically reshaped the U.S. immigration system since entering office in January 2017. Now well into its fourth year, the administration has undertaken more than 400 executive actions on immigration, spanning everything from border and interior enforcement, to refugee resettlement and the asylum system, Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), the immigration courts, and vetting and visa processes. This reports offers a comprehensive catalog, by topic, of those actions, including their dates and the underlying source materials. The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 gave the administration new openings to push forward many of its remaining immigration policy aims. This period has seen bans on travel and a pause on visa issuance for certain groups of foreign nationals and a further closing off of the U.S.-Mexico border that has effectively ended asylum there. Much of the White House's immigration agenda has been realized in the form of interlocking measures, with regulatory, policy, and programmatic changes driving towards shared policy goals. Though these largely administrative actions could, in theory, be undone by a future administration, this layered approach, coupled with the rapid-fire pace of change, makes it likely that the Trump presidency will have long-lasting effects on the U.S. immigration system.
Topic:: Immigration, Refugees, Citizenship, Borders, Donald Trump, and Asylum
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15984. Immigration Enforcement and the Mental Health of Latino High School Students

Author:: Randy Capps, Jodi Berger Cardoso, Kalina Brabeck, Michael Fix, and Ariel G. Ruiz Soto
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: As public discourse around immigration has become more highly charged and immigration policies have seen sweeping changes in the United States, immigration enforcement has generated fear in immigrant communities across the country—fears that extend beyond the unauthorized immigrant population to immigrant families with U.S.-born children and legal immigrants. This report explores how fear of immigration enforcement is related to the mental health and school engagement of young Latinos, the fastest-growing group of high school students nationwide. It also considers the role of other stressors, including discrimination and economic hardship, and factors that may support students’ resilience, such as spirituality and strong family relationships. This analysis draws its findings from a study that was conducted by researchers from the Migration Policy Institute, University of Houston, and Rhode Island College during the 2018–19 school year and that had two components: self-assessments completed by hundreds of Latino students in 11 high schools, and semistructured interviews with dozens of education professionals and community experts. The two study sites—Harris County, TX and Rhode Island—offer contrasting immigration-enforcement contexts. Among the study’s findings are: A majority of the students in both Harris County and Rhode Island (67 percent versus 52 percent) feared that someone close to them would be arrested and deported. While fears were more common among youth in Harris County, which has a higher level of immigration enforcement, these findings suggest deportation fears are not limited to places where enforcement is widespread. More than half of the students reported symptoms of mental-health conditions such as anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or depression at levels high enough to warrant treatment. Students who feared immigration enforcement most acutely—and who changed their behaviors as a result—had the worst mental-health outcomes. Almost one-third of students in the study had changed their behavior as a result of enforcement fears. In interviews, educators also described school and community strategies for supporting Latino students’ mental health, including approaches to establishing a welcoming environment, reforming disciplinary practices, and connecting students with in-house and external mental-health resources.
Topic:: Education, Immigration, Law Enforcement, Mental Health, Deportation, and Latino Issues
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15985. Driving Migrant Inclusion through Social Innovation: Lessons for Cities in a Pandemic

Author:: Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The rapid arrival of millions of asylum seekers and migrants in Europe in 2015–16 forced cities both large and small to rethink their approach to immigrant inclusion. Many localities, recognizing the newcomers’ diverse backgrounds and at times complex needs, began to experiment with innovative models of service provision, including by working with nongovernmental actors and involving community members more directly in the design and implementation of projects. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced European cities to confront a whole new set of challenges. Among them, how to support residents—including refugees and other migrants—amid social-distancing orders, all while public services operate at reduced capacity and in the face of likely budget cuts. This MPI Europe-International Organization for Migration (IOM) report explores key lessons cities can draw from the social innovation that accompanied the 2015–16 arrivals to help them weather the challenges brought by the pandemic. The study’s findings come in part from interviews conducted with representatives of municipalities and civil-society organizations in Austria, Greece, Italy, Malta, Poland, Romania, and Spain.
Topic:: Migration, Employment, Immigrants, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

15986. Navigating the Future of Work: The Role of Immigrant-Origin Workers in the Changing U.S. Economy

Author:: Julia Gelatt, Jeanne Batalova, and Randy Capps
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Immigrant-origin workers—that is, immigrants and their U.S.-born children—have been the main drivers of U.S. workforce growth in recent years. They were responsible for 83 percent of labor force growth between 2010 and 2018, at which point they made up 28 percent of all U.S. workers. Looking ahead, all growth in the working-age population is projected to come from immigrant-origin adults through 2035. Yet research on the future of work in the United States has largely overlooked this important segment of the workforce. This report examines the jobs held by immigrant-origin workers and third/higher-generation workers (those born in the United States to U.S.-born parents), and which of these jobs are likely to grow versus decline due to automation, offshoring, and other trends. It also considers the implications of the changing mix of jobs in the U.S. economy for both workforce development and immigration policy. Among the findings of this data analysis: Similar shares of Immigrant-origin and third/higher-generation workers held “jobs of the future” (22 percent versus 24 percent) and declining jobs (26 percent versus 29 percent) in 2018. Latinos—both those of immigrant origins and the third/higher generation—were less likely than workers in other major racial or ethnic groups to hold jobs of the future and more likely to hold declining jobs. Black immigrant-origin workers were overrepresented in jobs of the future in 2018, particularly in health care and health-care support, while third/higher-generation Black workers were more likely to hold declining jobs, such as office and administrative support occupations. This report is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative’s home page.
Topic:: Education, Employment, Economy, Immigrants, Labor Market, and Workforce
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15987. Managing the Pandemic and Its Aftermath: Economies, Jobs, and International Migration in the Age of COVID-19

Author:: Demetrios G. Papademetriou
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic’s immediate costs, measured in lives lost and damaged, have been appalling and continue to rise. In addition, its effects on individuals’ livelihoods and economies around the world have been deep and are likely to be long lasting. While saving lives was the near-exclusive focus during the first phase of the crisis, governments are now trying to strike a delicate balance between preventing further economic damage by reopening parts of their economies, while managing the obvious health risks of doing so. In the international mobility and migration arenas—policy areas enormously affected by the health and economic effects of the pandemic—this reflection considers both how these fields have fared thus far and the challenges that lay ahead. It first examines how measures put in place to stop the spread of the virus have affected family, labor, and humanitarian migration. It then highlights the thorny questions, as well as some opportunities, policymakers will face going forward. Among the critical questions: How will countries protect those most vulnerable to the disease and to economic precariousness? Will this become a moment in which governments seek to recalibrate the global trading system, aiming to increase economic self-reliance without falling into protectionism? And will the pandemic prompt countries to rethink aspects of their immigration systems, including how they screen arrivals, the number and types of foreign workers admitted, and the strategies for helping newcomers integrate into a new society?
Topic:: Migration, Border Control, Refugees, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

15988. Building Welcome from the Ground up: European Small and Rural Communities Engaging in Refugee Resettlement

Author:: Liam Patuzzi, Monica Andriescu, and Antonio Pietropolli
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Immigration to EU countries is largely an urban phenomenon, but small and rural communities have in recent years been more active in welcoming newcomers—including resettled refugees. This has sparked considerable interest in the idea of “rural welcoming,” but gaps remain in understanding how to make the most of resettlement to such localities, to the benefit of both refugees and receiving communities. While Europe’s small and rural areas vary considerably in their economic and social characteristics, shaping the context in which resettlement occurs, this study identifies some important commonalities. It draws its findings from interviews with resettled refugees, local officials, public service providers, and representatives of civil society in receiving communities that were selected for their small size, rural nature, and because they are situated within countries with varying levels of resettlement experience (Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden). This research sheds light on both opportunities and challenges for small receiving communities and the refugees who are resettled there. For refugees, these can include receiving more individualized support, though specialized services may not always be available, and the potential to form strong relationships with neighbors in what are often tight-knit communities, though these same community networks can sometimes be challenging to become part of. For receiving communities, resettlement may be able to support local businesses and social revitalization, but as the number of refugees they receive is often modest, they may need to fold resettlement into a broader approach to local development to have the desired impact. A number of policy approaches can help countries and communities seize these opportunities and overcome the challenges. These include adjusting the predeparture orientation refugees receive before resettlement to include discussion of what life is like in the destination country's small towns and rural areas as well as its cities; supporting receiving communities as they prepare for refugees’ arrival and refugees as they work toward long-term integration; and weaving resettlement into local development strategies. This report was written as part of the European Union Action on Facilitating Resettlement and Refugee Admission through New Knowledge (EU-FRANK) project, which is financed by the European Asylum, Migration, and Integration Fund (AMIF) and led by Sweden. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are partner countries. More MPI Europe research for the EU-FRANK project can be found on this series page.
Topic:: Immigration, Employment, Refugees, Resettlement, and Rural
Political Geography:: Europe

15989. Building a New Regional Migration System: Redefining U.S. Cooperation with Mexico and Central America

Author:: Andrew Selee and Ariel G. Ruiz Soto
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Migration between the United States and neighboring countries to the south is an enduring if ever-shifting phenomenon. While the COVID-19 pandemic and measures put in place to stop the spread of the virus have severely limited mobility, longer-standing questions about how best to manage regional migration remain as important as ever. These include how to address the mixed movement of unauthorized economic migrants and those fleeing persecution, with many families and unaccompanied children among them, and how to facilitate the legal movement of workers to meet labor demand and make the most of the region’s human capital. The Trump administration has largely focused on enhancing border controls and sharply narrowing access to asylum at the border, with the aim of deterring migration and turning back those who arrive without authorization to enter. Yet this heavily enforcement-focused strategy is unlikely to be sustainable in the long run. This report puts forward another approach, one that reflect the many faces of migration through the region and that is rooted in closer cooperation with Mexico and Central American countries. Its key element are: expanding opportunities for legal movement by extending seasonal work visas to nationals of countries in Central America that have the greatest migration pressures; re-establishing asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, but streamlining processes to ensure fair and timely decisions; professionalizing border enforcement in Mexico and the United States to make it both more effective and more humane; and investing in economic and institutional development in Central America to address the forces driving people to leave their homes. While a transition from one approach to another cannot happen overnight—and indeed careful sequencing of policy changes will be essential to avoid triggering a surge in migration throughout the region—it is essential if the United States and its partners are to move the needle towards safer, more orderly, and legal migration.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Border Control, Refugees, and Economy
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

15990. The Next Generation of Refugee Resettlement in Europe: Ambitions for the Future and How to Realize Them

Author:: Susan Fratzke and Lena Kainz
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Europe’s role within the global refugee resettlement landscape has changed significantly in recent years. Some EU Member States, such as Germany and Sweden, have expanded their resettlement programs, while others, including Romania and Lithuania, have launched new ones. This growth, coupled with the United States’ dramatic cuts to its refugee admissions, has meant that more than 40 percent of all refugees resettled through the UN High Commissioner for Refugees since 2017 have found a new home in Europe—up from 8 percent in 2007. This report looks at how investments in shared infrastructure at the EU level and growing resettlement experience among Member States offer a strong foundation upon which European resettlement efforts can build. It also explores what ambitious European resettlement policy could accomplish and what steps EU and national leaders would need to take to realize this vision. Among the many questions this report examines are: How can engagement in resettlement be motivated and sustained at the national level? And what elements are needed to build world-class resettlement systems in Europe—from improvements in selection and departure operations, to commitments to robust monitoring and evaluation, to investments in partnerships with first-asylum countries and between central governments and receiving communities in destination countries. This is the final report by the Migration Policy Institute Europe in a multiyear series of studies produced as part of the European Union Action on Facilitating Resettlement and Refugee Admission through New Knowledge (EU-FRANK) project. The EU-FRANK project is financed by the European Asylum, Migration, and Integration Fund (AMIF) and led by Sweden. Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are partner countries.
Topic:: International Cooperation, European Union, Refugees, and Resettlement
Political Geography:: Europe

15991. New Approaches to Climate Change and Migration: Building the Adaptive Capacity of Mobile Populations

Author:: Carol Farbotko
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: It is often assumed that there is a direct link between climate change and human mobility, and that mobility is evidence of a failure to adapt to changing conditions. The reality is much more complex. Worsening climate conditions can lead to a variety of mobility outcomes: some individuals or communities may be trapped in place, while others may choose to stay and develop local adaptation strategies; some may choose to move to mitigate risks or diversify household incomes, while others may be forced to leave. And all of this is occurring against a backdrop of globalization and urbanization, in which mobility and translocal networks are already significant parts of many people’s lives. This report examines the concept of “adaptive capacity” and how it can be useful in understand the relationship between climate change and migration, as well as the ways mobility can be a strategic choice—or a source of greater vulnerability. Drawing on examples from the Pacific Islands, Asia, and other regions, the report analyzes the limitations of existing responses to climate change and outlines an alternative, adaptation pathways model that is flexible and emphasizes the involvement of affected communities. Adopting an adaptation pathways approach, the author writes, could help avoid a common pitfall of climate change adaptation measures: that they are often top down and do not integrate local knowledge, cultures, and other important contextual factors. Failure to consult local communities can lead measures to backfire or create greater vulnerabilities elsewhere, while a more participatory, flexible approach can bring to light important local insights and yield stronger solutions that are able to respond to future developments.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15992. How Will International Migration Policy and Sustainable Development Affect Future Climate-Related Migration?

Author:: Robert McLeman
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Extreme-weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and intense heat, are shaping migration and displacement in countries around the world, and climate change is likely to make events like these more intense and more frequent. The effects of such conditions vary across regions and can spark a range of migration outcomes—both increases and decrease in movement along existing routes, the creation of new routes, and growth in the number of people who may want or need to move but who are unable to do so. But while the potential of climate change to affect human mobility is widely recognized, estimating future climate-related migration and displacement is made difficult by uncertainty surrounding the future of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and of sustainable development and migration policies. This Transatlantic Council on Migration report describes the findings of a first-of-its-kind exercise to explore how future climatic conditions under standardized greenhouse gas concentration scenarios may affect climate-related drivers of migration and displacement, and how international development and migration policies may mediate (or exacerbate) migration outcomes. It considers how this may play out in two periods (2020–50 and 2050–2100), and in top source regions for international migration: East and Southeast Asia, South and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Law, Refugees, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15993. Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Promising Practices and Ongoing Challenges

Author:: Kate Hooper and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Seasonal worker programs represent one of the few ways in which low-skilled workers can migrate legally to the European Union, enabling them to work in sectors such as agriculture, hospitality, and tourism. Countries have taken different approaches to selecting seasonal workers, with some recruiting from within the European Union and others soliciting workers from third countries. But while some of these programs are long-established, they can struggle to meet labor demands swiftly while ensuring that workers are treated fairly and will return home when their permits expire. The European Commission has aimed to create common standards for seasonal workers’ admission, residence, and rights across Europe and to address longstanding issues such as worker exploitation, visa overstays, and hiring through the informal economy. As European policymakers take stock of these Commission-driven harmonization efforts to date, this brief by MPI Europe and the Research Unit of the Expert Council of German Foundations on Integration and Migration (SVR) explores some of the challenges common to these programs, drawing on examples in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. It also highlights practices that can help maximize the benefits for migrants, employers, and countries of destination and origin alike. The authors sketch a number of principles to guide future reforms. Among them: prioritizing more transparent and standardized recruitment procedures, greater monitoring and outreach to protect seasonal workers, and strategies to help deliver on the thus far limited investments to support economic and social development in sending countries.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Economy, Recruitment, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Europe

15994. Which English Learners Count When? Understanding State EL Subgroup Definitions in ESSA Reporting

Author:: Julie Sugarman
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Data about English Learner (EL) students in the United States are more plentiful than ever. Under the federal Every Student Succeeds Act of 2015 (ESSA), states must report a wide range of information about their students’ English language arts and math standardized test scores, graduation rates, and more. They must also break these data down to show how students with certain characteristics—subgroups including racial/ethnic groups, students with disabilities, and ELs—are doing. This wealth of data is meant to help policymakers, practitioners, and community members identify schools that need to do a better job of helping ELs learn. But for this to be possible, it must be clear who states are including in the EL subgroup—something that varies across types of data and that is not always clearly marked on state student performance reports or online dashboards. This brief aims to help data users understand how the composition of the EL subgroup varies, and why understanding these technical differences matters when making decisions about how ELs and schools are faring. It also discusses how breaking data out further for certain groups of ELs such as newcomers, students with interrupted formal education, and long-term ELs could benefit decision-making.
Topic:: Education, Immigrants, Language, and Integration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15995. One Year after the U.S.-Mexico Agreement: Reshaping Mexico’s Migration Policies

Author:: Ariel G. Ruiz Soto
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: On June 7, 2019, after months of heightened Central American migration through Mexico to the United States, the Mexican and U.S. governments signed an agreement to work together to manage the migration of Central American asylum seekers and other migrants. This ushered in an intense period of policy and institutional change that is reshaping Mexico’s immigration enforcement and humanitarian protection systems. After being threatened with steep tariffs on Mexican goods, Mexico agreed to step up enforcement efforts, accepted the expansion of the U.S. Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP, also known as Remain in Mexico) along the U.S.-Mexico border, and promised to increase collaboration with the United States to disrupt migrant-smuggling networks. In turn, the United States pledged to expedite the asylum cases of migrants waiting in Mexico under MPP and invest in economic development efforts in southern Mexico and Central America to address the drivers of migration. While the full impact of the deal will likely take years to unfold, this policy brief takes stock of what has changed in the first year since its signing. It charts trends in migrant apprehensions and returns by Mexican authorities, and the volume of asylum applications filed in Mexico. The brief also examines challenges that have intensified during this time, including the precarious conditions many migrants face while waiting in Mexican border communities for their U.S. asylum cases to be heard and the COVID-19 pandemic that hit in early 2020. Looking ahead, the brief highlights opportunities for further policy development.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, Border Control, Refugees, Asylum, Deportation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

15996. Native Language Assessments for K-12 English Learners: Policy Considerations and State Practices

Author:: Julie Sugarman and Leslie Villegas
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Standardized tests play a central role in the U.S. education system, shaping how states hold schools accountable for ensuring that all students have equitable access to a quality education. Schools and districts sometimes also use testing data for high-stakes decisions about teacher pay and whether students can move on to the next grade. It is thus crucial that standardized assessments are able to accurately capture what students know and can do. But for English Learner (EL) students, test scores may not fully reflect how much they have learned in a subject if they cannot demonstrate their knowledge in English. The federal Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) encourages states to consider offering native language assessments as a test accommodation for ELs. Yet official guidance and research are limited on how to use such assessments effectively, and only 31 states and the District of Columbia use such tests. Depending on factors such as students’ English proficiency levels and the language(s) in which they receive instruction, these tests may be a good fit for some ELs but not others. This policy brief explores key policy and practical questions for states considering implementing or expanding their use of native language assessments. It also provides an overview of the choices made by the jurisdictions that already use them—including the subjects and languages in which native language assessments are offered and how they were created. Finally, the brief offers recommendations for the federal government, states, and local actors that could help build understanding of when these tests work well and how to make them more widely available.
Topic:: Education, Immigrants, Language, Integration, and ESL
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

15997. Measuring Up? Using Monitoring and Evaluation to Make Good on the Promise of Refugee Sponsorship

Author:: Hanne Beirens and Aliyyah Ahad
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Interest in refugee sponsorship has taken root in a growing number of European countries since the 2015–16 migration crisis. Also called community or private sponsorship, or humanitarian corridors in certain contexts, proponents of engaging private individuals and civil-society groups in refugee resettlement tout this model’s ability to provide refugees with a warm, supportive welcome and to give sponsors a rejuvenated sense of community and purpose. Yet even as sponsorship programs are piloted and implemented in more countries, there is relatively limited evidence of whether they are living up to these high expectations and what program elements are most effective. This issue brief examines how building a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system into sponsorship programs can help answer these and other important questions. It highlights the value M&E can bring—from strengthening political commitment to sponsorship, to increasing accountability and facilitating improvements within a program. It also lays out key challenges policymakers and program designers will need to tackle to get an M&E system off the ground. The pause in humanitarian protection programs forced by the coronavirus pandemic comes at a critical time in the development of many sponsorship schemes. Their relative youth could leave them more fragile as uncertainty looms over whether and when countries will resume their protection operations. Stronger M&E can help give decisionmakers the confidence—and evidence—they need to make smart decisions about launching, managing, or expanding a sponsorship scheme.
Topic:: Refugees, Immigrants, Resettlement, Asylum, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

15998. Venezuelan Migration, Crime, and Misperceptions: A Review of Data from Colombia, Peru, and Chile

Author:: Dany Bahar, Brian Dooley, and Andrew Selee
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: More than 5 million Venezuelans have left their country, and the majority—more than 4 million—have moved elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean. While some politicians and pundits have claimed the new arrivals are leading to an uptick in crime, few studies conducted in the region have examined whether and what type of relationship exists between immigration and crime. This issue brief explores these questions by looking at migration and crime data from the three countries with the largest number of Venezuelan migrants: Colombia, Peru, and Chile. To do so, it draws on a mix of national and subnational datasets, some publicly available and others obtained by the authors through requests to government agencies. Analysis of data from 2019 suggests that, for the most part, Venezuelan migrants commit substantially fewer crimes—and certainly fewer violent crimes—than the native born, relative to their share in the overall population. This signals that public perceptions that immigration is driving up crime rates are misplaced. In discussing the policy implications of this analysis, the authors point to areas for further research and policy discussion, including the need to pay special attention to border regions, in which migration and crime dynamics often differ from those elsewhere in the country, and the value of actively addressing newcomers’ legal status and labor market integration.
Topic:: Crime, Migration, Border Control, Employment, Trafficking, Immigrants, and Integration
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, Venezuela, Chile, and Peru

15999. Brexit on the Backburner: Citizens’ Rights and the Implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement in a Pandemic

Author:: Aliyyah Ahad and Monica Andriescu
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Just weeks after the United Kingdom’s formal departure from the European Union on January 31, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe with full force. The outbreak drew public and political attention away from the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, while also straining many public administrations, including agencies responsible for residency applications. With the clock ticking down on the transition period, set to end on December 31, 2020, many EU countries have yet to announce the details of the systems that will govern the future status and rights of their UK-national residents. The United Kingdom is further along, having rolled out its pilot EU Settlement Scheme to resident EU nationals in 2019. But of the 26 EU countries with responsibilities for citizens’ rights, only Italy, Malta, and the Netherlands had launched registration schemes before the pandemic began. And even where implementation had begun, many systems faced setbacks as in-person government services were suspended by lockdown measures. This has created considerable uncertainty for UK nationals in EU countries, and EU nationals in the United Kingdom—as well as their families—who will have six months after the transition period ends to acquire a new post-Brexit status. As this policy brief details, the pandemic has put some in an even more precarious position, including families with third-country-national members that have been separated by travel restrictions, and the newly unemployed, who may no longer meet the conditions of the EU Free Movement Directive (the foundation of the withdrawal agreement). This brief sets out steps governments on both sides of the Channel can take in the coming months to “pandemic-proof” their implementation plans. These include: investing in smart outreach to would-be applicants, streamlining status-adjustment processes, and supporting civil-society groups that can help applicants through the process.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

16000. Educating English Learners during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Policy Ideas for States and School Districts

Author:: Julie Sugarman and Melissa Lazarín
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: As schools closed their physical classrooms in March 2020 due to COVID-19, educators across the United States reported that English Learners (ELs), immigrant students, and students in low-income families were particularly difficult to reach with online instruction. The pandemic and the sudden, forced transition to remote learning have brought into sharp relief the inequities that many of these students face in often under-resourced schools. Despite significant effort on the part of educators to support their students’ continued learning through Spring 2020, these efforts fell short for many ELs and students in immigrant families. Among the most notable barriers: a lack of access to digital devices and broadband, school–family communication gaps, parents’ limited capacity to support home learning, and inadequate remote learning resources and training for teachers on how to use them effectively. With the 2020–21 school year underway, and many schools continuing to operate partly or entirely remotely, this policy brief takes stock of the impact schools’ response to the pandemic is having on ELs and immigrant-background students. It identifies key challenges states and school districts must overcome, and outlines policy recommendations to help them ensure these students are adequately supported in this academic year and beyond. These include prioritizing ELs for in-person instruction when schools buildings begin to reopen, professional development on digital instruction that includes a focus on working with ELs, strategies for strengthening parental engagement, and funding mechanisms to shield high-needs students from the brunt of expected budget cuts. As the authors note, “depending on how states and districts adapt in the coming year, schools could emerge from this crisis having built stronger and more resilient systems on a foundation of equity for ELs and immigrant-background students.”
Topic:: Education, Science and Technology, Immigration, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS