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16101. The Brexit parenthesis: Three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics

Author:
Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The shock of covid-19 in Britain may end the culture-wars politics set off by the Brexit referendum – which split the country between Leave and Remain, town and city, old and young. Many people had lent their votes to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives for cultural reasons, in spite of the fact that they were closer to the opposition Labour Party on economic issues. Covid-19 might cause a rethink, as voters expect competence from the government. Counterintuitively, both Leavers and Remainers are open to a leftist domestic agenda and greater cooperation with international partners – issues on which Labour is normally strong. Covid-19 has caused voters to take a dimmer view of previously touted post-Brexit trade partners like the US and China. They think more highly of countries such as Germany. The battleground will be ‘Red Wall defectors’ – voters who gave Johnson his 2019 general election landslide but who are reassessing what matters to them after Brexit. A politics divided along the lines of Leavers and Remainers could disappear as quickly as it appeared – but the Conservatives may nevertheless attempt to stoke the divisions of 2016 that secured them Brexit.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

16102. Demonstration effects: How the Hirak protest movement is reshaping Algerian politics

Author:
Amel Boubekeur
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The Hirak protest movement has revealed flaws in Algeria’s ruling system, which lacks the tools to reinvent itself or negotiate a new social contract with the people. The army has been unable to restore the “civilian president” narrative it used for two decades, while the current president has been unable to disguise his dependence on the military leadership. The regime can no longer use rigged elections as a substitute for negotiations with citizens. The regime is trying to promote a narrative on the removal of mafias connected with the former president as a guarantee of a new era. The Hirak has created a political culture of popular empowerment, but it still has to agree on a road map for a political transition.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Social Movement, Elections, Protests, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

16103. Networks of impunity: Corruption and European foreign policy

Author:
Chris Raggett
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
European governments have failed to prevent corrupt actors from laundering hundreds of billions of dollars through the international financial system and their own economies. This breakdown in the rule of law empowers kleptocratic regimes across the globe, which capitalise on the political culture underpinning Europe’s approach to globalisation. Western governments create a negative feedback loop that hinders their foreign policy initiatives when they treat corruption in other countries as an inherent part of the local culture. European policymakers should aim to catch up with, and overtake, their US counterparts on anti-money laundering regulation and enforcement. European countries should create national institutions – and an international coalition of Western states – that are dedicated to countering kleptocrats.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, European Union, Rule of Law, Financial Crimes, and Impunity
Political Geography:
Europe

16104. Digital stability: How technology can empower future generations in the Middle East

Author:
Manuel Langendorf
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The growth of the digital economy in the Middle East and North Africa could become one of the key solutions to the region’s youth unemployment crisis. Governments in the region have taken steps to create an environment in which technology startups can thrive. However, they need to overcome challenges such as flaws in their education systems, bureaucratic inefficiency, and a lack of funding for new businesses. Digitisation not only creates new opportunities for employment and political participation but also enables digital authoritarianism in the region. Europeans must help construct the region’s digital infrastructure, to prevent China from popularising its internet governance model there. The European Union should support the digitisation drive in the Middle East and North Africa through regulation, capacity-building, and funding.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Political stability, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

16105. Society max: How Europe can help Syrians survive Assad and coronavirus

Author:
Julien Barnes-Dacey
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
After nine years of conflict, the US is mounting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Syria, seeking the regime’s demise. But, with Assad having effectively won the war, he is unlikely to succumb to US economic pressure. Assad bears responsibility for the country’s freefall but this strategy will further accelerate societal collapse, especially as coronavirus looms, and will not deliver a transition. European governments should pivot to a longer-term strategy focused on protecting those societal forces that are still standing and that can help salvage a better future aligned with European interests. This should include increased – and cautious – support to them within government-controlled Syria. The unpredictability of the Trump administration means persuading the US down this track is not impossible – Europeans should seek to influence Washington to widen space for societal support.
Topic:
Sanctions, Conflict, Syrian War, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

16106. A problem shared: Russia and the transformation of Europe’s eastern neighbourhood

Author:
Dumitru Minzarari and Vadim Pistrinciuc
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The EU’s Eastern Partnership policy is set to receive an update rather than an upgrade consummate with current geopolitical pressures. The Eastern Partnership’s central flaw is its design, which allows local political elites to build ‘facade democracy’. Core to democratic transformation are genuine rule of law reform and strong security against external threats. Adopting a new ‘shared sovereignty’ model would allow the EU into Eastern Partnership states to push through reform, guarantee the rule of law, and expose evasive local elites. Failure to strengthen Eastern Partnership states in this way could strengthen Russia and allow authoritarianism to diffuse westward into the EU. The EU should make shared sovereignty the basis for future Eastern Partnership relations, building on the momentum of the new accession process secured by France.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Partnerships, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

16107. The post-coronavirus world is already here

Author:
Josep Borrell
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The pandemic will likely magnify existing geopolitical dynamics and test the strength of Europe’s democratic systems. Europe needs a new kind of globalisation capable of striking a balance between the advantages of open markets and interdependence, and between the sovereignty and security of countries. Europe should work to prevent the US-China rivalry from having negative repercussions in certain regions of the world – particularly Africa. European leaders need to focus on meeting the immediate needs of healthcare systems, providing an income for people who cannot work, and giving businesses guarantees. The European model will only mean something in the eyes of the world if we can successfully promote solidarity among EU member states.
Topic:
Globalization, Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, and United States of America

16108. The meaning of systemic rivalry: Europe and China beyond the pandemic

Author:
Andrew Small
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Beijing’s handling of the pandemic has changed long-standing European assumptions about its reliability as a crisis actor and its approach to the European project. Europe’s immediate medical-supply needs and dire economic situation will limit the scope of shifts in its China policy – for now. But, on issues ranging from supply chains to ideological competition, European governments have rebalanced their view of what dynamics with China should look like in the aftermath. The crisis is also intensifying demands from European parliaments, media outlets, and citizens for Europe to puts its China policy on a more open, accountable, and values-based footing. Governments’ pursuit of a “business as usual” approach to Beijing is growing harder to sustain.
Topic:
Ideology, Strategic Competition, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China and Europe

16109. A new Gaza: Turkey’s border policy in northern Syria

Author:
Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Turkey now controls a long stretch of Syrian territory along its southern border that hosts nearly four million people, most of them Sunni Arabs. The challenges for Turkey there include a difficult balancing act with Russia, the huge financial costs of direct rule, the presence of radical Islamist factions, and the lack of a modus vivendi with the Kurds. Turkey faces the risk of the “Gazafication” of the area – the emergence of a militarily controlled territory that is perennially poverty-stricken and unstable. EU member states can find ways to cooperate with Turkey to support stabilisation in parts of the safe zone, without violating their interests and core principles. They should single out the Euphrates Shield Zone for stabilisation work, on the understanding that other areas captured from the Kurds are politically sensitive for European governments and voters alike. Europe should aim to strike a grand bargain with Turkey: in return for targeted European reconstruction aid to the safe zone, the country would lift its veto on stabilisation in Kurdish-controlled areas, allow trade between these zones, or agree to Kurdish participation in the UN-led political process on Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Border Control, Geopolitics, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Gaza, Syria, and Idlib

16110. Bad company: How dark money threatens Sudan’s transition

Author:
Jean-Baptiste Gallopin
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Sudan’s transition to constitutional rule is failing: the reform of political institutions has not begun, while the country faces an intensifying economic crisis, a dramatic decline in living conditions, and a flare-up in localised violence. The civilian wing of the Sudanese state is bankrupt but unwilling to confront powerful generals, who control a sprawling network of companies and keep the central bank and the Ministry of Finance on life support to gain political power. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia appear to be positioning a paramilitary leader known as Hemedti as Sudan’s next ruler, but the military is fiercely hostile towards him. Western countries and international institutions have let the civilian wing of the government down: they failed to provide the financial and political support that would allow Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to hold his own against the generals. The transition will only succeed if the government stabilises the economy and civilians work hard to tilt the balance of power away from the military and towards themselves. Europeans should use their relationships with Hamdok, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to establish civilian control of the generals’ networks of companies.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Reform, Finance, and Transition
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

16111. Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics

Author:
Ellie Geranmayeh
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europeans wish to persuade Iran to compromise on strategic issues – but, unless they understand the dynamics of domestic Iranian politics, they will not get far. Three main power blocs compete to influence Iran’s supreme leader, including the ‘modernisers’, who were instrumental in building the case internally for the nuclear deal. The US ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has placed them on the back foot. Improving the economy remains the most pressing issue in Iran. Without a Western economic offer, the other two power blocs – the conservative ‘Principlists’ and IRGC-linked ‘securocrats’ – will continue their recent ascendancy and press for a confrontational ‘maximum resistance’ response. Immediately after the US presidential election, Europeans should embark on shuttle diplomacy with Washington and Tehran to agree an interim deal on the nuclear issue. This could also strengthen modernisers ahead of Iran’s own presidential race in 2021.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

16112. The power of perspective: Why EU membership still matters in the Western Balkans

Author:
Beáta Huszka
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Aspiring EU members must resolve outstanding disputes as part of the membership process. This has proved a powerful tool over the years. Resolving bilateral problems, including border disputes, is especially crucial in the Western Balkans, where they are numerous. France’s October 2019 veto of accession talks for North Macedonia and Albania has already weakened Western Balkans publics’ trust in the EU. Should the EU’s influence wane, nationalist leaders will exacerbate tensions with neighbouring countries. The future of North Macedonia’s Prespa Agreement with Greece is under threat, and the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo and Montenegro could also prove a potential flashpoint. The EU should demonstrate its commitment to the Western Balkans by encouraging countries there to resolve their outstanding disputes, both to make them better candidates and to strengthen security in the region.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

16113. War and pieces: Political divides in southern Yemen

Author:
Raiman Al-Hamdani and Helen Lackner
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Since the 2010s, a wide range of separatist movements have represented the main political demands in southern Yemen. These groups are motivated by their geographical and historical origins, backed by various foreign powers, and divided by their demands for independence or autonomy. The Southern Transitional Council, the most prominent separatist group, claims to represent the south as a whole but it has limited control over parts of western governorates. The 2019 clash between the council and the internationally recognised government poses the most serious threat to the anti-Houthi coalition since the start of the Yemen conflict. The implementation of the Riyadh Agreement is far behind schedule and it is unclear whether Saudi Arabia will be able to enforce the deal, given the UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen. The European Union should continue to support development and state-building in Yemen, increase its efforts to mediate between Yemenis, and develop institutional and democratic platforms on which southerners can achieve self-determination.
Topic:
Development, Conflict, Separatism, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

16114. A Gulf apart: How Europe can gain influence with the Gulf Cooperation Council

Author:
Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Since 2011, members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have become increasingly assertive players across the Middle East and north Africa, particularly given the shifting US role in the region. European countries, long used to working under a US umbrella in the Gulf, have struggled to recalibrate their relationships with Gulf states and have been increasingly marginalised as relevant actors. Europeans urgently need to strengthen their geopolitical role in the Gulf, overcoming competition between one another to shape a more autonomous, strategic, and forceful role in defence of their key interests. Europeans can shift the balance of power in the Gulf in their favour and help address key crises by approaching the Gulf through flexible new frameworks based on core coalitions that address specific issues.
Topic:
International Relations, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

16115. Rebuilding the Transatlantic Relationship – Transatlantic Policy Forum in Review

Author:
Danielle Piatkiewicz and Miroslava Pisklová
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
It was noted that the pandemic has not brought about systemic change but has instead accelerated and exacerbated existing trends. Both the US and the EU see the pandemic furthering disagreements and on both sides of the Atlantic by causing rise to internal political divisions on how to tackle the pandemic. One of the big lessons of this global crisis is that collaboration is crucial. Not even powerful countries, such as the US, can tackle it on their own. Now more than ever, it is time to move beyond competition and focus on strengthening international cooperation, otherwise we risk a success of non-democratic actors seeking to undermine democracy and rule of law.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Crisis Management, Transatlantic Relations, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

16116. EU MONITOR: The new Slovak government: An exemplary to the rest of the V4 amidst global crises?

Author:
Miroslava Pěčková
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The results of Slovak presidential and European elections in 2019 indicated a political change in Slovakia, distancing itself from a twelve year-long dominance of ruling party SMER, which got embroiled in many corruption scandals throughout its reign. Firstly, the presidential elections in March 2019 appointed Zuzana Čaputová to President, defeating SMER´s candidate Maroš Šefčovič. She took hold of the office as an explicit advocate for multilateralism, anticorruption and a more liberal direction for the country, stating that her “main focus is to bring about change in Slovakia, and for Slovakia to be a reliable and predictable partner of the European Union”, while having an “inspirational effect” to other European countries in this regard1. Secondly, two months later, the coalition PS-SPOLU (whose former vice-president is Čaputová) noticeably won the elections to the European Parliament, with its programme promising a “real European Slovakia” and an intention to actively participate in the EU´s development and unity2. The coalition´s success marked another election lost by SMER in a row and subsequently offered the possibility of further political upheaval in the upcoming elections. The composition of the new government coalition arising from the 2020 Slovak parliamentary elections confirmed the change of political leadership in the country, thus bringing a potential for change as it consists of the parties of previous opposition and defined itself against its predecessor. This paper will analyse the new government´s programme and policies specifically pertaining to rule of law and green transformation vis-à-vis their feasibility in the context of contemporary developments. The COVID-19 pandemic influenced the beginning of the rule of the new government and is going to affect the real shape of its original political plans and reforms due to significant impact on Slovak economy. Moreover, the paper will reflect if these developments are likely to be significant in the Visegrad 4 context.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, Rule of Law, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, and Slovakia

16117. Conference on the Future of Europe – another victim of the COVID-19?

Author:
Zuzana Stuchlíková
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
EUROPEUM's associate research fellow Zuzana Stuchlíková describes the impact of COVID-19 on the Conference on the Future of Europe in her EU Monitor. The Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE) is one of the flagship projects of Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission, introduced the aftermath of the 2019 EP election and aimed at connecting citizens with various EU stakeholders and empowering them in the European project. However, the COVID-19 pandemic delayed it and preparations are restarting only now. A closer look shows that one year into the project, it lacks a clear vision. Key questions remain unanswered – what will be the format? Who will lead the negotiations? What should be the role of European institutions? And is the question of a treaty change completely off the table? The EU needs to open the essential questions and continue the dialogue on the future of Europe, despite the ongoing obstacles in the form of a global pandemic. However, only with a deep consensus on what the stated objectives of the conference is, how do they are achivable, how it is financed and how it is ensured that the implementation of the conclusions of it can be implemented can it mature from an ambitious idea to a viable project. It is essential that the CoFoE’s launch is not rushed at the expense of readiness - good will on its own is not enough and a rushed start could lead to a PR disaster that could further hamper European citizens’ trust in the EU institutions.
Topic:
European Union, Institutions, Conference, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

16118. Czech perception of EU’s Reaction to COVID-19

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
This text deals with the topic of the European Union's response to COVID-19 and how it is perceived by Czech society. As of 13th August 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has claimed more than 179 000 European lives out of 1,8 million who contracted with the virus1 . Most of the European states issued lockdowns, significantly curtailing economic activity. This resulted in the deepest recorded recession in the EU, reaching negative 11,9% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020. . ▪ As a reaction to the ongoing economic crisis, the European Council decided to create a joint €750 billion recovery fund called Next Generation EU that should be financed by loans and repaid after 2027, a significant step that might mitigate the poor perception of the EU actions during the initial weeks of the health crisis. Significant EU criticism appeared in Italy; leading international outlets started discussing whether Europe had lost Italy.
Topic:
Governance, Public Opinion, European Union, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16119. Czech Perception of the EU Climate Policy

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The latest article from Vít Havelka aims to explain how the Czech population perceives the EU Climate Policy and especially the European Green Deal. Czechs are sceptical about European ability to influence global emissions. The common sentiment is that there is China, the US and India who produce larger amounts of global pollution, and thus even if Europe transformed into a climate-neutral economy, the process of climate change would continue more or less unabated.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16120. COMMENTARIES: State of the European Union address 2020

Author:
Katerina Davidova, Vít Havelka, Jana Juzová, Christian Kvorning Lassen, Danielle Piatkiewicz, and Zuzana Stuchlíková
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Experts from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy comment on the State of the Union address (SOTEU) given by the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on 16 September 2020. Topics of the commentaries: Christian Kvorning Lassen: General Impressions – A Visionary Speech Challenged by Political Reality; Christian Kvorning Lassen: A Stronger European Health Union is Needed; Christian Kvorning Lassen: Migration – Ambitious rhetoric, dubious feasibility; Danielle Piatkiewicz: Multilateralism: Europe’s Call to Global Action – Taking the Lead; Kateřina Davidová: EU’s climate momentum not quashed by the pandemic as new target is presented; Jana Juzová: European Neighbourhoods – Vague Reassurances, Economy First; Zuzana Stuchlíková: Next Generation EU, Rule of Law and Conference on the Future of Europe; Vít Havelka: The EU and the UK fights over blame for Brexit fiasco
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Migration, European Union, Multilateralism, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Europe

16121. The post pandemic future of the transatlantic relations – time to rebuild or repair?

Author:
Danielle Piatkiewicz and Miroslava Pisklová
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
After already enduring a 4-year term under United States’ President Trump, the future of the transatlantic relationship is at a critical junction. The US faces an upcoming election where the next administration can either further deteriorate relations or seek to rebuild and strengthen them. No matter the outcome, the future path will be intrinsically tied to how the transatlantic partners cope with the political, economic and security fallout of the global pandemic. Will the US return to the fold of multilateralism and restore an equitable world order in cooperation with the EU, or does the EU stand alone and will have to rapidly grow into a more influential geopolitical player? Or will relations continue their downward trajectories current and spur an accelerated retreat towards isolationist policies, creating space for external challengers like China and Russia to reassert their global positions and challenge the established order? This analysis will examine the current and upcoming challenges on the transatlantic horizon in regard to post-COVID economic recovery. Each region has proposed policies to tackle the current and upcoming economic aftermath of the pandemic, but as Europe outlines strong policies, the Trump administration’s approach has had dire consequences. The Biden campaign’s approach, on the other hand, shows similarities to that of Europe, evoking hope for a more harmonized approach that has proven successful in the past. This analysis will examine the US and EU’s diverging approaches to global issues, challenges and external challengers, such as Russia and China. As demonstrated by the Trump administration, the US is retreating on many of its multilateral and international commitments – how will the Transatlantic relationship look like if there is a second Trump term as opposed to if Biden takes over? Is the relationship irreparably damaged or can it be repaired? Finally, this paper will examine the future of transatlantic security under the framework of NATO’s 2030 reflection process and appraise how the new security landscape will look like post-COVID, especially as external threats mount and impact the Central and Eastern European front.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Multilateralism, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

16122. Identifying the EU’s weaknesses in foreign and defence policy: the struggle to become a more effective global actor

Author:
Adrian Blazquez
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Adrian Blazquez's latest policy paper deals with the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). More precisely, he focuses on the aspects of unanimous and qualified majority voting, international security commitments, and common strategic culture of the EU. When analysing the influence of the European Union in world politics, some voices argue that the EU often fails to position itself as a relevant and credible player on the international system. This lack of effectiveness in foreign policy stems from two main factors: conflicting national interests and strategic assessments, and the unanimity rule required in Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) decisions. The first one is a mantra that reaches its maximum expression with the assumption that Southern countries are concerned about Africa and the Middle East while Eastern countries’ main focus is Russia. Unanimity is a principle that governs decision-making processes in CFSP. While foreign and security policy in the European Union remain an “area of intergovernmental bargaining” instead of one under the control of the supranational model, the forging of an EU strategic culture will be difficult to achieve. The state of play is more that of 27 differentiated strategic cultures with diverging approaches.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

16123. US Elections - The optimistic worst-case scenario

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Christian Kvorning Lassen, Deputy Director of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, comments on the US presidential election. The US elections will come down to the wire, and will be determined by mail-in votes. While this was fully expected during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also the worst-case scenario given Trump’s persistent attempts to delegitimize mail-in votes, despite lack of clear evidence of their fraudulence. Much like 2016, the key battleground states are Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), with mail-in votes deciding their outcome. As of this writing, Pennsylvania has counted 700.000 out of 2.5 million mail-in votes, of which Biden has won 71.7% of them to Trump’s 21.3%. Michigan has counted 425.000 out of 2.48 million, with Biden winning 65% to Trump’s 33%. Finally, Wisconsin still needs to count 1.3 million mail-in votes. Should the trend of Biden winning 2/3 of all mail-in votes, Biden will be a clear election winner, giving the Biden camp cause for optimism.
Topic:
Elections, Donald Trump, Pandemic, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

16124. Backsliding of democracy in Slovenia under right-wing populist Janez Janša

Author:
Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Žiga Faktor examines the backsliding of democracy in Slovenia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid the escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, Slovenia experienced a major political shift, as Janez Janša, leader of conservative SDS party, was appointed as a new Prime minister of Slovenia, filling the political vacuum created after a resignation of a former PM Marjan Šarec earlier this year. With Janša’s strong ties to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, his endorsement of right-wing populist rhetoric and ferocious verbal attacks on journalists and established media, many fear that Slovenia’s democratic principles are at stake, while the situation can be further exacerbated by the current state of coronavirus emergency in which the new government can entrench its power.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Populism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Slovenia

16125. European Green Deal: will it bring structural change?

Author:
Lucie Vinařská
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Lucie Vinařská authored a policy paper for the 12th debate of the Prague Climate Talks series titled "European Green Deal: will it bring structural change?", which will take place online on EUROPEUM's Facebook. The European Union is now taking the lead on climate action when striving to transform Europe into the first climate-neutral continent. This aim is at the core of the European Green Deal, a new strategy introduced by the Commission in December 2019. While the European Union and the rest of the world’s community is mobilizing, the climate change and environmental degradation are reaching unprecedented heights and posing an existential threat to the whole world. Climate change is by its nature a trans-boundary issue that requires a coordinated action. The EU’s ambitious plan was introduced during a time of a “green boom”, when environmental issues were among top political priorities. But is this Deal really going to turn the tables?
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Public Policy, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

16126. EU – Western Balkans summit - More reforms, more money

Author:
Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Wednesday’s Summit of EU and Western Balkans leaders was long-anticipated following the efforts aimed at reviving the EU enlargement process. The Summit was originally planned to be organized in Zagreb, under the Croatian EU presidency, however, due to the coronavirus pandemic, it was held as a videoconference. Nevertheless, the fact that the Summit was realized despite the current global situation, even on the scheduled date, demonstrates that the Western Balkan region represents a priority for Croatia as well as the rest of the EU, and that the EU genuinely wants to revitalize the enlargement process. It was expected that the Summit in Zagreb would follow up on the positive developments in the past months, those being the positive decision of the European Council on opening the accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, and the adoption of a new enlargement methodology (i.e. set of rules leading the accession process). However, the Summit’s agenda was naturally influenced by the current COVID-19 pandemic and the central topic was eventually the assistance provided by the EU to the Western Balkan countries and a larger plan for their economic recovery.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

16127. Brief on COVID-19: COVID-19 EU Response: The Subsidiarity Principle has been Working, but now it is Time for Adjustments

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Ih his latest brief, our Vít Havelka discusses the topic of limits of the COVID-19 EU response and the subsidiarity principle. The subsidiarity principle is an often-debated topic among Czech Eurosceptic politicians. They usually argue that the European Union does not need more responsibility as the EU Member States can sufficiently substitute a joint EU approach, or that the new competences might threaten the national sovereignty. Paradoxically, Eurosceptics often accuse the EU of incompetence once a problem emerges that the EU has next to no power to tackle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

16128. European Elections: A Year In Review

Author:
Katerina Davidova, Vít Havelka, Jana Juzová, Christian Kvorning Lassen, and Danielle Piatkiewicz
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
On the occasion of the anniversary of the ninth European Parliament elections, which took place from 23 to 26 May 2019, experts of EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy prepared five analyses reflecting on the past year in the key areas: climate, multiannual financial framework, migration, geopolitics and European Union enlargement. The experts of EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy weigh in with analyses in their respective fields – climate, multi-annual financial framework, migration, geopolitics and EU enlargement – of the first year since the European elections. It is our hope that this review of the first year of unprecedented upheaval will be an opportunity to reflect both on the past year, but also the challenges of tomorrow.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, European Union, Geopolitics, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

16129. Sustainable finance: the road to greater energy security in the Visegrad region

Author:
Linda Zeilina
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Linda Zeilina wrote a policy paper as a part of the Think Visegrad platform on the topic of sustainable finance and energy security of the Visegrád group countries. The coronavirus outbreak has made the unthinkable happen, with major economies grinding to a halt and international travel coming to a standstill. Now, it is time to think what is often seen as unthinkable: to reimagine economic models and energy systems, and to position the Visegrad countries well for the economic models of the future. By doing so, the region will also make itself much more secure and prosperous.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Finance, Coronavirus, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe

16130. EU Council Commentary: No progress in MFF and recovery fund

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
On Friday, EU leaders met online to discuss the newest proposal by the European Commission on the future MFF and Next Generation EU recovery fund. As expected, the meeting was devoted to a mere assessment of Member States’ starting negotiation positions, meaning no significant progress has been made. The leaders only agreed to finalize the negotiations as soon as possible, targeting at mid-July during the German presidency. The introduction of Next Generation EU fund rewrote the dividing lines in the EU manifesting during the previous MFF negotiations. Some groupings, such as Frugal Four remain more or less intact, whereas the group of “Friends of Cohesion” disintegrated into several blocks, which makes the negotiations less lucid. Southern Europe supports the new Commission proposals; Czech Republic, Hungary and several Baltic State express reservations. Nevertheless, the good news is that no country vetoed the Commissions proposal and there is a good chance to reach an agreement. Whether this will happen before the summer break remains to be seen. The member states positions are now far away from each other, and the leaders will have to manifest good negotiation skills in order to conclude the negotiations within one month.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Economy, Recovery, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe

16131. "Coronationalism" vs a geopolitical Europe? EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Christian Kvorning Lassen from EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy together with Jan Kovář from Institute of International Relations Prague wrote a commentary "Czechia: This Covid-19 environment is not conducive to external solidarity" for the EPIN Report publication, concerned with EU external solidarity at the time of Covid-19. EU member states have been discussing how to collectively deal with the socioeconomic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. As major debates continue to take place about internal solidarity, the question arises how the EU and its member states wish to support third countries, outside the EU, in tackling their health and economic emergencies. On the one and, the EU wishes to become a geopolitical power, which requires that the Union and its member states step up their role and support on the global scene. On the other hand, there are signs of ‘coronationalism’ with some national political parties questioning EU external aid at a time when member states themselves are struggling. Based on expert contributions from a representative cross-section of thirteen member states, this report delves into the question of whether and how external solidarity has been part of the political or public debates in Covid-struck Europe. It finds that, for now, neither ‘coronationalist’ nor geopolitical ambitions dominate the relatively little politicized debates about international cooperation and development aid.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

16132. Member states’ expectations towards the German Council Presidency

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
As Germany assumes the presidency of the Council of the EU, the Union is facing the “biggest test of its history” according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic and a severe economic recession could not be more extraordinary. The weight of expectations on Berlin to assume a European leadership role during the presidency are as extraordinary as those challenges. What exactly do other member states expect from Germany and how do they set their policy priorities? To answer this, the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN) has compiled an analysis of 15 different national perspectives. Czechia hopes that Germany will forge a compromise that ensures more funding for the cohesion policy and more flexibility to use those funds, including those allocated to the European Green Deal. Czechs look towards the German presidency in hope that the salience of the Green Deal will fall, arguing instead that the pandemic requires a delay – or even abandonment – of a principally green-based restructuring of the economy. The fact that studies based on the previous financial crisis indicate that green investments are ideally positioned to spur economic recovery is ignored; the resistance towards climate neutrality in Czechia is ideological rather than empirical.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Recovery, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

16133. Brief on COVID-19: Do Czechs Want a Stronger EU or a Convenient Scapegoat ?

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his brief, our Christian Kvorning Lassen outlines the image of the European Union's actions during the COVID-19 outbreak, which are often misinterpreted or forgotten by Member States, with a focus on the Czech Republic. As a preface, it must be noted that this is not intended to be a critique of the Czech COVID-19 measures, which have been timely and so far reasonably efficient, nor is it an absolution of EU’s actions during the crisis. The old adage of “everything you do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything you did will seem inadequate afterwards” holds as much true to the EU as it does to Member States. However, once the crisis ends, the political struggle for the future of Europe and European democracy will erupt, which in turn will affect all citizens. The COVID-19 pandemic is already shaping up to become a deeper crisis of democracy, and the European Union. Some V4 leaders were swift to suggest sacrificing the European Green Deal and thereby future generations’ existential living conditions in the name of short-term economic recovery. Domestically, V4 political elites show no qualms about deceiving the public by claiming credit at home for EU initiatives or misrepresenting them, while at the same time decrying the EU as inactive and dysfunctional, conveniently forgetting to mention the numerous initiatives that the EU is launching within its competencies.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Democracy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16134. EU MONITOR: Czech Perception of the EU Defence Policy

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
On May 28th 2017, the German Chancellor surprised the world with a statement calling on Europe to ‘take its fate into own hand’, adding “the era in which we could fully rely on others is over to some extent”. Pundits perceived her speech as a landmark change in a long-term European defence paradigm. Since the end of the WWII, the European security depended on the United States, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the American defence shield was further broadened to former soviet satellites in Central Europe. However, the last years were marked by a growing rift between the EU and the US. The departure of the UK from the European Union underlined the crisis of European defence structures as the EU would lose a member state with the strongest European army, a seat in Security Council, and large part of its nuclear arsenal. As a result, the European leaders gathered shortly after the Brexit vote in Bratislava and decided they would launch PESCO, a voluntary defence cooperation on project basis. The aim was not only to renew the integrational process after the Brexit blow, but also to strengthen European defence research and provide the EU with missing hard power.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Migration, Public Opinion, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16135. EU MONITOR: Czechs and the Post-2020 Multiannual Financial Framework

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his latest EU monitor, Vít Havelka examines the attitude of the general Czech public towards the new EU Multiannual Financial Framework. At the beginning of May 2018, the European Commission introduced its proposal of the new Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-27. Since then, the EU member states as well as the European Parliament have been intensively negotiating about each aspect of the Commission´s draft without being able to reach an agreement. Consequently, the talks will slip into 2020, probably being finalized no earlier than summer 2020 during the German presidency of the European Council. The following article is therefore meant to provide the reader with an understanding of what ordinary Czechs think of the MFF negotiations and what should the EU budget finance. The text is predominantly based on standard public opinion poll conducted by STEM Agency in cooperation with EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy in October 2019. The sample consisted of 1002 respondents, combining PAPI and CAPI questioning. The quantitative research was supplemented with qualitative questioning in form of focus groups conducted at the beginning of November 2019.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16136. Brief on COVID-19: National governments, not the EU, sleepwalked into the corona crisis

Author:
Christian Kvorning Lassen
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his brief, Christian Kvorning Lassen writes that on January 26, the EU’s Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) warned Member States that Covid-19 infection spread in Europe would be probable and considerable. The EU offered in January to support Member States with purchasing of medical equipment, test kits, protective gear, and general support. Member States refused the EU’s help in January, stating that their health care systems were adequately prepared for the Virus.
Topic:
Government, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

16137. Brief on COVID-19: Eurozone in Agreement over the first COVID19-Response

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his brief, Vít Havelka writes about the Eurozone ministers first agreement on the response against the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. After several Eurogroup meetings, the finance ministers of the EU19 finally managed to agree on their first COVID-19-crisis response. They sign up to a package worth of 540 billion €, consisting of 200 billion € loans from the European Investment Bank, 240 billion € from the European Stability Mechanism, and 100 billion € kurzarbeit package proposed by the European Commission. The coronabonds fiercely wanted by Italy, Spain and Portugal have not been approved, leaving the discussion to EU leaders who are due to convene on the 24th April.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

16138. EU MONITOR: French lessons in Africa: An assessment of three key military capabilities for European defence

Author:
Adrian Blazquez
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his latest EU monitor, Adrian Blazquez examines the the European cooperation in the Sahel strip. The Sahel region is often known as the European southern border. This area is a hotbed of violence and instability where weak states are overwhelmed by a myriad of ethnic conflicts and the proliferation of extremist groups. Local governments are largely unable to control their borders.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Sahel

16139. Brief on COVID-19: European integration continues on several fronts as the COVID-19 crisis escalates. Without the Czech Republic

Author:
Jiří Lacina
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In his brief, Jiří Lacina explores the impact of COVID-19 on the future development of European integration and the role of Czechia in this development. The EU, its institutions and the Member States are working together to withstand the current pandemic and prepare for the economic crisis to follow. Simultaneously, ideas on the future arrangement of the EU are appearing. Two emerged on 9 April: one of monetary and the other of environmental nature – and both dealing with region’s economic recovery. For now, the Czech Republic is not engaging in any of them, and once again risks being left behind.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16140. Brief on COVID-19: WHO under threat? Maintaining multilateralism and global cooperation in times of COVID-19

Author:
Danielle Piatkiewicz
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In her brief, Danielle Piatkiewicz writes about the need of multilateral and international cooperation when the COVID-19 crisis ends. If the COVID-19 crisis will teach us anything, is that today’s society has never been more interconnected. The need for multilateral and international cooperation has proven to be vital for the communication and exchange of information, support and resources.
Topic:
International Cooperation, World Health Organization, European Union, Multilateralism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, and Global Markets

16141. EASTERN MONITOR: Western Balkans in the fight against the COVID-19: Another cause for democratic backsliding?

Author:
Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In her latest Eastern Monitor, Jana Juzová examines the fight of western Balkans countries against the COVID-19. The COVID-19 global pandemic represents an unprecedented challenge for humanity. Across the globe, countries are facing a historical dilemma of stricter security measures aimed to ensure safety of the populations at the cost of fundamental human rights and freedoms. The affected countries across the globe has adopted a wide scale of measures, and as there is no central mechanism for coordination in the health policies even inside the EU, each country approaches the crisis in a different way. Consequently, the policies range from opting for relatively loose ones relying on building up of natural immunity in the population, i.e. in Sweden, to extreme restrictive measures adopted in Hungary, diminishing human rights as well as democracy in the country. The Western Balkan countries’ approach, although differing significantly in each country, belongs among the most restrictive ones. The countries with the highest number of infected persons (relative to the population size) are Serbia, North Macedonia and Montenegro.1 In Montenegro, the situation has worsened in the past few weeks, as the country reported only a very small number at the beginning of the pandemic, and the government started introducing stricter measures, similarly to its neighbours.
Topic:
International Cooperation, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Balkans and European Union

16142. EU MONITOR: The EU invests very little in culture but the results are visible

Author:
Karel Barták
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The European Commission proposed in May 2018 to continue implementing the Creative Europe programme even more in the next budgetary period 2021-2027. This problematics is the main topic of Karel Barták's latest EU Monitor. The European Commission proposed in May 2018 to continue implementing the Creative Europe programme in the next budgetary period 2021-2027 with an envelope of 1,85 billion euros. Should the Member States agree, it would mean an increase of 26,5 percent compared to the current budget (2014-2020). Most of the money should go as usual to the audiovisual part of the programme (MEDIA), with emphasis on distribution of European films outside their country of origin. In the „culture“ part of the programme the draft mentions as priorities music, publishing, cultural heritage and architecture.
Topic:
Culture, Budget, European Union, and Investment
Political Geography:
Europe

16143. Challenges in the Transatlantic Partnership: Are We Drifting Apart?

Author:
Martin Michelot
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
During November 2019, EUROPEUM co-organized the second Transatlantic Policy Forum along with CEPA, a leading US think-tank. The private roundtable provided a unique opportunity for candid and open discussion about the issues that are at the heart of transatlantic cooperation. Our research fellow Martin Michelot concluded a debrief and analysis of these debates. 2019 will certainly go down as a year when the political unity of the Alliance was tested - and when NATO held together strong. The year ended with a NATO Leaders Summit that centered around the comments made by French President Emmanuel Macron a month prior, where he declared NATO to be in a state of “brain death” and cast a shadow on whether the collective security guarantee would still hold strong in the near future. That was not the only moment of transatlantic tension: tensions flared over European 5G markets, which may be built by Chinese companies, and trade has become an inflamed issue between Europe, the U.S. and China. The debrief includes analysis of NATO, U.S.-EU Trading Relations and a to-do list for transatlantic cooperation.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and North America

16144. Czechs and the EU Brand: How do Czechs feel about the EU and what could change their mind?

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
This study is mainly based on a series of 12 brief surveys by Behavio research agency and on longitudinal research by STEM Institute for Empirical Research. The expert’s inputs were provided by EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy. The Czech Republic could serve as a kind of laboratory for investigating anti-EU sentiments. Czechs’ perception of the EU membership is the poorest of all the EU citizens, (mere 33 % view it as a good thing). Not even half of the adult Czech population (47 %) would vote to stay in the EU, despite having a booming economy and bearing almost no impact of the migration crisis. Moreover, the Czech economy is strongly export-oriented and benefits from the EU budget. Thus these negative sentiments seem to be very much about emotions and image. Czechs’ feelings toward the EU are similar to other Visegrad (V4) countries in many ways, but these similarities are less prominent than one would expect – especially in the case of Slovakia, where attitudes towards NATO and the EU are reversed. In many aspects, Czech Eurosceptics have been more influenced by British and Italian politicians than by their counterparts in Slovakia, Hungary or Poland. The popularity of the EU in the Czech Republic has been very volatile over the past 15 years. It was even modest at the beginning and the first disillusion came soon after the country’s accession, but was quickly countered by the Czech presidency of EU in 2009. EU’s image dropped again during the global economic downturn and the Eurozone crisis, which played a relatively strong role in the 2010 national election campaign. The migration crisis worsened negative sentiments even further, despite having little direct effect on the country. The recently observed increase in popularity can be mostly attributed to the country’s economic growth.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, and Survey
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16145. EU MONITOR: Has the time come for a Czech Regional Policy?

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Over the past 5 years, the Czech Republic has experienced unprecedented GDP growth, moving the country from 83% of EU average GDP in 2013 to 91% of the EU average GDP in 2019. At the same time, the Czech wage increased by more than 7% in 2013 in the last three years. This phenomenon is addressed by our Vít Havelka in the latest issue of the EU Monitor. The following decade will likely be determining for the future success of the Czech Republic. The global economy and its supply chains are undergoing a significant shift; Asian states are slowly becoming innovative leaders rather than being a cheap labour pool. Furthermore, the Czech Republic is heavily dependent on the automotive industry3, which is under pressure not only by stricter emission regulation, but also disruptive market change such as autonomous systems, digitalization and electrification. It is likely that old market strategies will prove obsolete as it happened in case of cell phones. Along with the changing global economy, the Czech Republic is nearing to a point where it will not be fully able to rely on the EU Cohesion Policy anymore. The country has reached the threshold of 90% EU ́s average GDP, and if the current economic development remains the same, the Czech Republic will not have access to Cohesion Funds after the coming MFF, and it will receive significantly less money from the EU budget. The problem is that regional disparities within the Czech Republic remain high, especially between the capital city Prague and the rest of the country. Simultaneously, since the EU accession in 2004, the Czech Republic relied mainly on the EU Cohesion Policy in terms of providing funding for regions, supplementing the EU ́s activity only with minor national contributions. As a result, the country does not have a well-developed culture of regional policy that would be nationally funded, and there is not even a discussion in the media about national solidarity with disadvantaged regions. The following paper aims at discussing a possible way forward for the Czech Republic, especially in the context of expected changes in global economy and simultaneous decrease of EU Funding that could help mitigate the impact of economic disruptions. The focus will be laid on possible If the whole automotive left the Czech Republic, Deloitte estimates that the Czech GDP would decrease by 25% and 1,4 million Czechs would lose their reaction to lower income from the EU, as it is presumed that a solid regional policy is crucial in maintaining internal cohesion and contributes to mitigation of economic turbulences.
Topic:
European Union, GDP, Global Political Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16146. EU MONITOR: Brexit, now what? Examining the future of Central and Eastern European security post-Brexit

Author:
Danielle Piatkiewicz
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
In her latest EU monitor, Danielle Piatkiewicz explores the future of Central and Eastern European security after Brexit. January 31st will begin the long-awaited legal withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. As the UK disengages politically, Europe’s existing security structure will undergo reconstruction as EU Member States reevaluate their future without the UK as active members established security including CSDP, NATO, PESCO, among others. As the UK seeks bilateral partnerships post-Brexit, steadfast security consumers like Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) should gauge how Brexit will affect their security region. With external threats mounting in the East, the CEE region relies heavily on the existing security blanket that Europe and NATO have provided. As one of the strongest European militaries, an engaged or disengaged UK will certainly affect the security environment, but it will be up to how the EU and CEE countries react and adapt, that will impact the future security of their region once Brexit takes effect.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, and Central Europe

16147. Chinese investments in India

Author:
Amit Bhandari, Aashna Agarwal, and Blaise Fernandes
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Over the last five years, China has quietly created a significant place for itself in India – in the technology domain. While India has refused to sign on to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this map shows India's positioning in the virtual BRI to be strategically invaluable for China. Nearly $4 billion in venture investments in start-ups, the online ecosystem and apps have been made by Chinese entities. This is just the beginning; there is much more to come.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Business, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

16148. AI & Machine Learning for the Indian Navy

Author:
Amrut Godbole
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The Indian Navy needs to develop and assimilate new Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies that are being used by the Indian military and industry. The Navy's goals of transforming into a 200-ship force and maintaining optimal combat capability, are being put to test by diminishing capital and manpower shortages. It needs to leverage the benefits of AI and Machine Learning (ML) to improve organisational efficiencies at various levels. This paper focuses on four Use Cases, viz., Inventory Management, Training, Prescriptive Maintenance, and Security & Surveillance, for implementation in the Indian Navy.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Navy, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16149. Devising an Indian policy on Sanctions for Pakistan

Author:
Ambika Khanna
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
India must consider new strategies that can be put in place to manage Pakistan's ongoing military aggression and security threat. One policy tool that has been used effectively by many countries but remains unexplored by India is the imposition of sanctions. This paper analyses the feasibility of imposing sanctions on Pakistan and the strategies India should consider to execute this effectively. It makes recommendations on how to establish a legal framework, amend existing laws, include Indian stakeholders with business interests in Pakistan, get government departments to collaborate on implementation, and considers diplomatic measures India can undertake.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

16150. A space exploration industry for India

Author:
Chaitanya Giri
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
On 16 May, the government introduced a huge reform that liberalised India's space sector, leveling the field and propelling the space ambitions of private players. Corporations such as L&T and Godrej Aerospace, can now compete and collaborate with the Indian Space Research Organisation, to build an indigenous Boeing or Lockheed Martin, and be part of global, private, space industry syndicates. The timing is significant, as the space race has accelerated with the U.S. and China marking their space territories through Accords and SEZs. India now is much better equipped to launch its space agenda. This paper analyses India's future potential.
Topic:
Space, Private Sector, and Industry
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16151. Cooperation in Trade in Services

Author:
Akshay Mathur and Purvaja Modak
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The shift in the global trend from trade in goods to trade in services, especially digital services has focused attention on the necessity of a modern and robust regulatory framework for it. The bilateral steps by India and Canada outlined in this paper can feed into current efforts by multilateral institutions to develop a universal framework for capturing services trade data.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Regulation, Institutions, Services, and Trade
Political Geography:
South Asia, Canada, India, and North America

16152. Fostering Growth in Digital Trade

Author:
Don Stephenson
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The shifting trends in trade, especially given the growth in communications capacity and reduced cost of computing have altered traditional economic development. India and Canada have a shared commercial interest in E-trade. Both countries need to align their resources to frame trade rules of the new digital economy, to mutual benefit.
Topic:
Communications, Economic Growth, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
South Asia, Canada, India, and North America

16153. India-Canada energy cooperation

Author:
Amit Bhandari
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Canada has been one of the biggest success stories in oil over the past few years. India should consider financial investments in Canadian energy assets as a means to secure its energy supplies. This paper studies the feasibility and prospects for Indian investment in Canada's petroleum sector.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Oil, and Investment
Political Geography:
South Asia, Canada, India, and North America

16154. Sustainable Energy through Green bonds in India

Author:
Olaf Weber and Vasundhara Saravade
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
India’s energy future needs to be low-carbon, climate-resilient and protected against price fluctuation. It can meet these needs by investing in Canadian oil companies, given the country’s political stability and rule of law. India can also attract greater foreign direct investment at home through the issuance of green bonds, a climate finance debt instrument that addresses environmental and climate-related challenges. This paper explores the regulatory perspective of the green bond market.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Rule of Law, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
South Asia, Canada, India, and North America

16155. A Defence Industrial Agenda for India

Author:
Sameer Patil
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The delivery of five Rafale fighter jets this week demonstrates the continued upgrading of India’s military capabilities. A key part of this process has been the building of a domestic defence-industrial base by promoting participation of the private sector. Bringing certainty to defence procurement, monitoring emerging technologies and joining hands with like-minded countries, will play a critical role in taking this forward.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Affairs, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16156. India and the SCO in the 21st Century

Author:
Rajiv Bhatia, Sifra Lentin, and Ambika Khanna
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
The 20th meeting of the Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Heads of States was held virtually on 10th November, 2020. The meeting precedes the SCO Summit to be hosted by India at the end of this month, and for which preparations have been on through the year. In this compendium of three essays, Gateway House assesses the potential for deepening economic cooperation between India & SCO, asks whether the SCO Charter needs dynamism and revision, and traces the roots of the regions's Buddhist presence, back to India.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16157. The pandemic and the military: towards total defence?

Author:
Antonio Missiroli and Michael Ruhle
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, which broke out in December 2019 in the Chinese city of Wuhan and quickly spread across the globe, will have a lasting impact on worldwide economic, political and strategic developments. Some observers question whether the different approaches by nations to the pandemic may benefit or hinder global economic competition. Others worry that some states may exploit the pandemic as a pretext to curtail individual freedoms. Still others note the emergence of an outright "battle of narratives" on the origins of the virus and the correct approach to bringing it under control, adding fuel to an already lingering "systemic" contest.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Global Focus

16158. China in the COVID world: continued challenges for a rising power

Author:
Bates Gill
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
It is frequently noted that the Chinese word for "crisis" combines characters connoting "threat" on the one hand and "opportunity" on the other. This bit of linguistic trivia can be overdrawn. For China and the COVID-19 crisis, however, it rings true: the pandemic and its aftermath have generated dangerous problems for the Chinese leadership while also opening enticing opportunities.
Topic:
International Relations, Power Politics, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16159. The interstate conflict potential of the information domain

Author:
Dumitru Minzarari
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic has not only triggered a crisis in public health and safety that engendered a significant economic fallout. The pandemic has also triggered an infodemic, one that sets the context for a significant spike in anti-NATO and anti-Western propaganda. Unless countermeasures are taken, the already deteriorating public opinion vis-a-vis the Alliance can be expected to worsen. Viewed individually, these two pandemic's outcomes have not critically threatened the Alliance; however, their combined effect could become a formidable challenge for NATO. Despite the measures taken, the pandemic is likely to continue exacerbating the frustrations among member states, further fraying the Alliance's unity. This, arguably, is the most immediate and concerning challenge facing NATO today.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, NATO, Public Health, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

16160. COVID-19 and the defence policies of European states

Author:
Alice Billon-Galland
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
At the time of writing, the COVID-19 pandemic still wreaks havoc around the world. Its scale and duration, as well as the full social and economic impact of lockdowns and social distancing measures, are yet to be seen. Exactly how the pandemic and its aftermath will impact the defence policies of European states in the long-term remains uncertain for a while yet. However, some Europe-wide trends--economic strategic, and geopolitical--are already visible. These will impact how Europeans (re)think their security after the pandemic, and therefore have implications for defence planners, decision-makers and armed forces throughout the continent.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

16161. Catalyst or crisis? COVID-19 and European Security

Author:
Claudia Major
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The COVID-19 crisis is teaching European countries that a pandemic can destabilize societies, the economy and political institutions to the same extent that military or hybrid threats do. However, while the pandemic's impact on European security seems massive, it is difficult to isolate the COVID-19 factor: what is uniquely pandemic-driven, and what is the result of other elements, such as the lack of US leadership, is not always easy to determine.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Institutions, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

16162. A renewed collective defense bargain? NATO in COVID’s shadow

Author:
Sten Rynning
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed a tectonic shift in world politics: China's rise and an erosion, if not a decline, of Western power. Where Western Allies squabble, China acts with confidence. NATO's timorous decision of December 2019 to discuss China's "growing influence" now seems quaint one year on, or at best a preamble to the preeminent question of our era: is NATO sufficiently cohesive to confront change?
Topic:
NATO, Power Politics, and Alliance
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and North America

16163. NATO and the COVID-19 emergency: actions and lessons

Author:
Olivier Rittimann
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
At the height of the COVID-19 crisis, a number of voices criticized NATO's absence in the fight against the pandemic. As expected, many of these critics came from Russia and China, exploiting a highly effective STRATCOM to allege an apparent lack of NATO involvement. However, criticism also emerged from within the Alliance, urging that NATO should wake up to the situation. Russian propaganda, backed by the actual deployment of planes and trucks to Italy, and domestic condemnation fueled a sense of discontent in people as regards the usefulness and effectiveness of international organizations at large, and more specifically NATO and the European Union (EU). This impression of inaction persisted for a couple of weeks after the outbreak of the COVID crisis in most Allied nations, until eventually an aggressive counter messaging strategy was put forward by NATO HQ, SHAPE and individual nations themselves.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Alliance, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

16164. Revitalizing NATO’s once robust standardization programme

Author:
Paul Beckley
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War and after the 9/11 attacks, globalization has not replaced Great Powers' competition as some predicted but, progressively, it has accelerated it. Such competition has been driven by advanced technology, which potentially preludes the next revolution in military affairs. Competition among nations is nothing new, but in contrast to the industrial era, in the digital age it is not just about the number of tanks, ships, aircraft and brigades. It is also about the control of networks, platforms and software. This represents an important transformation: norm-setting in these technical domains will yield significant geopolitical returns. In the realm of technology, standards are tantamount to the rules of the game.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, and Standardization
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

16165. NATO and 5G: what strategic lessons?

Author:
Andrea Gilli
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Thanks to their higher speed, larger data volume, lower latency, and capacity to sustain very high density connections (including machine-to-machine communications), 5G networks are set to unleash a major economic revolution, potentially adding trillions of dollars to the global economy (at least according to recent forecasts). From smart cities to Artificial Intelligence (AI); telemedicine to driverless cars; virtual reality to the Internet of Things (IoT); Industry 4.0 to all manner of applications that will comprise this new ecosystem, 5G ushers in enormous opportunities. 5G communications still require significant investments, both for research and development of key technologies, and for building the supporting infrastructure. Moreover, the next generation of telecommunications raises several important questions about the political economy of spectrum allocation and standard definition, their military applications, the role of Chinese companies and the attendant cybersecurity risks. These are all relevant topics for NATO from which the Alliance can draw some strategic lessons.
Topic:
NATO, Military Strategy, Data, 5G, and Internet of Things
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and Global Focus

16166. NATO’s strategic redirection to the South

Author:
Stephen J. Mariano
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO created the Strategic Direction South--the "Hub"--in 2017, in response to illegal migration into Europe from war-torn Libya, Syria, and Iraq, highlighting humanitarian and internal security concerns. As evidence began to emerge that criminal organizations and terrorist groups were leveraging migration flows, these fears coalesced with other security concerns, not only disrupting the stability of European societies but also threatening the security of European societies but also threatening the security of the Alliance. Eventually, NATO recognized that the situation was connected to deeper sources of instability and that solutions would require a comprehensive approach to the southernmost parts of "the South".
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Migration
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

16167. NATO’s needed offensive cyber capabilities

Author:
Ion A. Iftimie
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
At the 2016 NATO Summit in Warsaw, cyberspace was recognized as an operational domain in which NATO military forces must be able to maneuver as effectively as they do on land, at sea and in the air. Since then, Allies have conducted several successful offensive cyber operations against non-state adversaries, such as Daesh. Due to technological transformations in recent years, cyber is no longer viewed by NATO and its member states only as a hybrid threat, but also as a weapon in its own right and as a force multiplier in current military operations. Over the next two decades, NATO will look for new ways to integrate cyber weapons (or offensive cyber capabilities) into its operations and missions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Non State Actors, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and Global Focus

16168. Projecting Stability to the South: NATO’s other challenge

Author:
Chloe Berger
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
In the spring of 2020, the Atlantic Alliance's "large periphery" to the South, which extends from the Sahel to the Asian borders of the Arabian Gulf, remains in a state of dangerous instability. The health and containment measures taken by the authorities against the COVID-19 crisis have put popular claims to rest. The case of Lebanon shows, however, that the urgency of the pandemic has not made the demands of the population disappear. Beyond managing the health crisis, there is no doubt that the future of the region's leaderships will largely depend on their ability to mitigate both the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as the political ones.
Topic:
NATO, Political stability, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

16169. The NATO Pipeline System: a forgotten defence asset

Author:
Dominik P. Jankowski
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Over the last decade, energy security has become a permanent element of NATO's strategic thinking, integrated into numerous NATO policies and activities. In fact, restoring the prominence of energy security within the Alliance was not easy, especially as this policy was considered primarily a question of national security in the post-Cold War era. It was only at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that NATO was given a dedicated, yet limited, mandate to work in this field. The mandate--based on a set of principles and guidelines--included information and intelligence sharing, cooperation on consequence management, and support for the protection of critical energy infrastructure.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Energy Policy, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

16170. Time for a NATO strategy on North Korea?

Author:
Tina J. Park
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg puts it, North Korea remains a "global threat that requires a global rsponse". The threats posed by North Korea are arguably imminent, with the potential to cause serious harm to the security of NATO member states. Since 2006, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in clear defiance of the Treaty on Non -Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that the regime withdrew from in 2003. To date, the international community has failed to tame North Korea's nuclear ambitions, despite various diplomatic and political efforts. In addition to its nuclear capabilities, Pyongyang has made significant advances with conventional weapons, both chemical and biological, as well as with its cyber capabilities. North Korea's substantive linkages to China and Russia, and non-state terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas in the Middle East, amplify their threats beyond the borders of the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Diplomacy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

16171. Scoping NATO's environmental security agenda

Author:
Michael Ruhle
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Environmental change is increasingly recognized as one of the major factors that will shape the global security environment. According to most experts, rising global temperatures will lead to rising sea levels and cause more extreme weather events, such as storms, flooding, droughts and wildfires. The firestorms that engulfed parts of Australia in late 2019 and early 2020, burning an area the size of Belgium and Denmark combined, and severely decimating that continent's wildlife, were a stark reminder of the force of these changes.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Climate Change, and Environment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16172. It’s that time of the decade again: some considerations for NATO’s eighth Strategic Concept

Author:
Jeffrey H. Michaels
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
In the Declaration that emerged from teh December 2019 London Leaders Meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was tasked to present Foreign Ministers with "a forward-looking reflection process under his auspices, drawing on relevant expertise, to further strengthen NATO's political dimension including consultation.". This new tasking has been largely attributed to French President Emmanuel Macron's remark the previous month that the Alliance was suffering from "brain death". Speaking at a press conference alongside Stoltenberg, Macron elaborated on his comment, complaining the Alliance was overly focused on "cost-sharing or burden-sharing" whereas too little attention was being placed on major policy issues such as "peace in Europe, the post-INF, the relationship with Russia, the issue of Turkey, who is the enemy?"
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

16173. Resource-Backed Loans: Pitfalls and Potentialloan

Author:
David Mihalyi, Aisha Adam, and Jyhjong Hwang
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Through “resource-backed loans” (RBLs) countries access finance in exchange for, or collateralized by, future streams of income from their natural resource wealth. The authors of this report reviewed countries’ past experiences with RBLs across sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America from 2004 to 2018. They identify risks and opportunities RBLs pose and provide recommendations for countries considering taking RBLs in the future. The researchers identified 52 RBLs, 30 of which were taken by countries in in sub-Saharan Africa and 22 in Latin America. They are distributed across 14 countries in the two regions. Thirty-eight were lent by Chinese policy banks, seven are from commodity traders, four are from other Chinese state-owned enterprises, one is from Korea Exim, one is from Nigeria and one is from Russia's Rosneft. Forty-three of the loans are backed by oil, six by various minerals, two by cocoa, and one by tobacco. The total loan amount represented in the dataset is $164 billion, of which $66 billion went to Africa and $98 billion to Latin America.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Finance, Resource-Backed Loans, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Ecuador, Guinea, South Sudan, and Congo

16174. Tangled Web: The Role of Oil, Gas and Mining in Funding Regional Governments in Indonesia

Author:
David Manley, Rani Febrianti, and Hari Subhash
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Indonesia’s system of funding provincial, district and city governments is one of the most complex in the world, and has undergone substantial expansion over the last two decades. While the system allows thousands of authorities to function, it is failing in three respects: inequality of funding between regions persists, funding for some governments is unpredictable and volatile and some oil- and gas-rich regions have not sufficiently prepared for a possible future with much lower revenues. Indonesia’s planning ministry, Bappenas, should investigate these issues further focusing particularly on clarifying policy objectives, ensuring more reliable funding, supporting oil- and gas-rich regions in becoming more resilient to a long-term decline in prices and clarifying the published rules around the funding system.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Oil, Gas, Media, Mining, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

16175. Sustainable Drive, Sustainable Supply: Priorities to Improve the Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain

Author:
Patrick Heller, Ethan Elkind, and Ted Lamm
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The global transition from fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) will require hundreds of millions of batteries. The need for such massive production raises questions from the general public and critics alike about the sustainability of the battery supply chain, from mining impacts to vehicle carbon emissions. Growing demand for the mineral inputs for battery production can provide an opportunity for mineral-rich countries to generate fiscal revenues and other economic opportunities. But where extraction takes place in countries with weak governance, the benefits expected by citizens and leaders may not materialize; in some cases extraction can exacerbate corruption, human rights abuses and environmental risks. To address these questions, the Center for Law, Energy & the Environment at U.C.-Berkeley and NRGI are conducting a stakeholder-led research initiative focused on identifying strategies to improve sustainability and governance across the EV battery supply chain. CLEE and NRGI convened leaders from across the mining, battery manufacturing, automaker, and governance observer/advocate sectors, to develop policy and industry responses to human rights, governance, environmental, and other risks facing the supply chain. This report "Sustainable Drive, Sustainable Supply: Priorities to Improve the Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain" shares the major conclusions of this multi-stakeholder convening and accompanying outreach to experts in the field: Lack of coordinated action, accountability, and access to information across the supply chain hinder sustainability efforts Inadequate coordination and data sharing across multiple supply chain standards limit adherence Regulatory and logistical barriers inhibit battery life extension, reuse, and recycling The report recommends the following priorities as industry, government and nonprofit leaders respond to these challenges: Industry leaders, governments and civil society could strengthen mechanisms to improve data transparency and promote neutral and reliable information-sharing to level the playing field between actors across the supply chain and between governments and companies Industry leaders, governments and civil society could ensure greater application of supply chain sustainability best practices by defining and categorizing existing standards and initiatives to develop essential criteria, facilitate comparison and equivalency, and streamline adherence for each segment of the supply chain Governments and industry leaders could create new incentives for supply chain actors to participate in and adhere to existing standards and initiatives, which may include sustainability labeling and certification initiatives Industry leaders could design batteries proactively for disassembly (enabling recycling and reuse), and industry leaders and governments could collaborate to build regional infrastructure for battery recycling and transportation and create regulatory certainty for recycling
Topic:
Energy Policy, Sustainability, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16176. Beneath the Surface: The Case for Oversight of Extractive Industry Suppliers

Author:
Robert Pitman and Kaisa Toroskainen
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Large oil, gas and mining projects are usually associated with a few big names such as Shell, Exxon, Rio Tinto, Gazprom and Codelco. These are rights holders—companies that receive licenses from host governments to extract resources. Typically, however, lower-profile companies do much of the work to take natural resources out of the ground. These are suppliers—companies that provide the goods and services that make extraction happen. They range in size from multibillion-dollar international conglomerates to specialized or local firms that may only have a handful of employees. This report makes the case for greater oversight of extractive industry suppliers. It explains the economic significance of extractive industry suppliers and identifies the main stakeholders involved in supplier governance. It considers policy areas where the impacts of poor supplier governance play out and reviews how governments, rights holders, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and suppliers are beginning to share information on the economic impacts of suppliers, how these disclosures feature in global transparency and reporting initiatives and what more can be done.
Topic:
Corruption, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Coronavirus, Industry, COVID-19, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16177. The Practice and Potential of Blockchain Technologies for Extractive Sector Governance

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Important questions are being raised about whether blockchain technologies can contribute to solving governance challenges in the mining, oil and gas sectors. This report seeks to begin addressing such questions, with particular reference to current blockchain applications and transparency efforts in the extractive sector. It summarizes analysis by The Governance Lab (GovLab) at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering and the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI). The study focused in particular on three activity areas: licensing and contracting, corporate registers and beneficial ownership, and commodity trading and supply chains.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Currency, and Blockchain
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16178. Holding to Account: How Publishing Facts about Foreign Corruption Creates Accountability

Author:
Aaron Sayne and Melanie D. Reed
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The complex, secretive nature of foreign corruption calls for a collaborative, all-hands-on-deck approach. Corrupt actors go to great lengths to hide their wrongdoing, using layers of legal entities, transactions, secrecy jurisdictions and middlemen. No one response can detect and prevent every bad act, and different anticorruption actors have their own unique interests, mandates and abilities. In many cases, they may struggle even to learn the facts of what went wrong. Prosecuting a corruption crime generates reams of valuable information. This can include the names of bribe takers and payers; the industries, countries and public institutions involved; how the proceeds of crime changed hands; and who facilitated or turned a blind eye. Who should get to see this information? Thought leaders on anticorruption, from Transparency International (TI) to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Working Group on Bribery (OECD WGB), have long endorsed greater transparency in foreign corruption cases. They argue, for example, that access to information raises awareness, gives guidance to anticorruption practitioners, encourages cooperation with prosecutors and boosts confidence in law enforcement. Conversely, opacity in corruption cases can weaken the deterrent value of prosecutions, open doors for prosecutorial misconduct and thwart efforts to make victims whole. These concerns are particularly keen in cases that settle via tools like deferred prosecution agreements (DPAs) or plea bargains. Many governments share evidence from corruption cases confidentially, through formal legal instruments and close working relationships. But how does public disclosure of facts from corruption cases, whether by courts or other law enforcement bodies, aid the broader fight against corruption? Put differently: At a time when enforcement of anticorruption laws remains low in many countries, could more transparency help anticorruption efforts by regulators, companies, the media, civil society and others? To answer this question, the authors of this briefing analyzed materials from foreign corruption cases that have arisen since the inception of laws banning foreign bribery. During the past four years, they also conducted over two dozen interviews with experts government, the private sector, civil society and the press. From this work, they found instances in which other anticorruption actors used published facts from court cases to do their jobs more effectively. Although they undertook this research as part of the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s (NRGI’s) programming aimed at reducing corruption risks in the oil, gas and mining sectors, they did not limit themselves to cases in the extractive industries. Accordingly, their findings and recommendations apply broadly to corruption in other sectors.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16179. Building a Sustainable Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain: Frequently Asked Questions

Author:
Patrick Heller, Ethan Elkind, and Ted Lamm
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The global transition from fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) will require the production of hundreds of millions of batteries. The need for such a massive deployment raises questions from the general public and critics alike about the sustainability of the battery supply chain, from mining impacts to vehicle carbon emissions. Growing demand for the mineral inputs for battery production can provide an opportunity for mineral-rich countries to generate fiscal revenues and other economic opportunities. But where extraction takes place in countries with weak governance, the benefits expected by citizens and leaders may not materialize; in some cases extraction might even exacerbate corruption, human rights abuses and environmental risks. Many EV proponents and suppliers are aware that supply chain governance problems pose a challenge to the evolution of the EV industry, but outstanding questions remain about how these challenges materialize. This brief, jointly published by UC Berkeley School of Law’s Center for Law, Energy & the Environment (CLEE) and the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) provides basic information on the EV battery supply chain and key battery minerals, such as cobalt and lithium, and addresses the following questions: What does the supply chain for EV batteries comprise? How do carbon emissions from EVs compare to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles? What are the most significant challenges in managing the mineral extraction necessary for the EV supply chain, and what sustainability and human rights initiatives apply?
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Government, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Governance, Regulation, Legislation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16180. Coronavirus, Oil and Latin America: The Urgency of Economic Diversification and Energy Transition

Author:
Carlos Monge
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Key messages: Companies are demanding temporary bailouts, requesting that governments subsidize them with breakeven prices over sale prices, and allow them to postpone tax and royalty payments and agreed investments. Such actions may be necessary to preserve jobs and ensure domestic energy supplies. Governments are considering lowering social and environmental standards, fast tracking procedures and providing long-term subsidies to support ongoing projects and to attract new investments. For an industry already facing its twilight, these actions are not justified. Governments must urgently move ahead with economic diversification and energy transitions to ensure the availability of jobs, energy and fiscal incomes that the oil industry currently provides.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Diversification, Renewable Energy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, Central America, Mexico, and Peru

16181. Coronavirus, Mining and Latin America: A Baseless “Race to the Bottom”

Author:
Carlos Monge
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Mining companies are asking governments to make consultation and environmental procedures more flexible to mitigate production risks and attract new investments. However, there is no real reason to slacken regulations in order to promote mining in Latin America. Conversely, the region should strengthen these standards to prepare for a possible new mining cycle fueled by the transition to clean energy. In the event of a new mining cycle, governments should safeguard against overreliance on commodity exports and the use of fossil fuels. Instead, governments and companies should explore ways in which the mining sector can contribute to economic diversifications and energy transitions. Demand and prices for minerals produced in the region have fallen as a result of the global recession. Logistical issues resultant from pandemic-related lockdowns have slowed internal production. Consequently, mining taxes and royalties will likely fall this year. Prices have not fallen enough to threaten the commercial feasibility of current projects, the global investment budget remains robust, and the region is attractive to mining investors. Furthermore, the global transition to clean and sustainable energies will most probably increase the demand and prices for the critical minerals (copper, silver, lithium and others) produced in the region.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Commodities, Mining, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Latin America

16182. A Race to the Bottom and Back to the Top: Taxing Oil and Gas During and After the Pandemic

Author:
David Manley, David Mihalyi, and Colin Fleming
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Earlier this year as people around the world responded to the coronavirus pandemic, their demand for oil tumbled. At the same time, OPEC and Russia initially failed to agree to coordinate supply cuts. Consequently, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell from $60 in December 2019 to $20 in April 2020. As of this publication, the price is $43. If the price stays low, and if oil executives expect the price to remain low, companies may lobby governments to reduce taxes and other costly regulations. Payments to governments are often larger than costs for a company, so there is pressure on governments to reduce taxes to keep projects viable. This briefing considers the following key questions: Where will the oil price go next? What is the impact on currently operating projects, undeveloped projects, and those that are yet to be discovered? How should governments respond in changing oil and gas taxes? Will governments try to “race to the bottom,” but then lose a race back to the top? Key messages: There’s no certainty over future prices. Some rise is likely in the next few years, even if an energy transition results in a structural decline in the oil price in the longer-term. Governments must consider this uncertainty and probable rise when taxing oil and gas. Tax breaks on most currently operating projects are likely a waste of public money. Some governments may be pressured into reducing tax on projects awaiting development. But they must identify which projects would become viable with lower taxes, and which do not need a tax break. If in doubt, governments should consider whether a project that needs a tax incentive really will provide value for the country. For most countries, relative to total oil and gas produced, the production from projects that could be delayed or cancelled is small. But not so for the “new producer” countries like Senegal and Guyana. Changing taxes to make a country more attractive has the most impact before companies have invested – e.g., in attracting investment in licensing rounds. But setting low taxes now could force a government to raise taxes later if prices rise again. If a tax break is unavoidable, governments could use a “sunset clause” to limit the duration of the tax break. Ideally, governments should set progressive tax regimes that respond to changes in profit. But as many taxing authorities struggle to measure profit, governments could set simpler tax regimes based on sales revenue or prices – but must prepare to change tax rates in the future, and be prepared for the repercussion for a government’s credibility with investors. Governments should disclose contract terms detailing tax changes, tax exemptions, incentives and estimated break-even prices of projects to help government auditors, local think tanks, and the public check and support tax policy decisions.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Tax Systems, Commodities, Coronavirus, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16183. What next for NATO? Views from the North-East Flank on Alliance Adaptation

Author:
Michal Baranowski, Linas Kojala, Toms Rostoks, Kalev Stoicescu, and Tony Lawrence
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
NATO leaders have invited Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to present proposals at their next Summit for measures to reinforce Alliance unity, increase political consultation and coordination between Allies, and strengthen NATO’s political role. To support his reflection process, the Secretary General has appointed a group of ten experts. Only one of these represents the 14 of 30 Allies who have joined NATO since 1999. In this policy paper we set out issues, concerns and expectations about NATO’s future adaptation from the perspective of the three Baltic states and Poland, based on a series of interviews with several senior officials and members of the expert community in each of the four states. While not identical, the views of our interviewees were close. They broadly agreed that while NATO faces a multitude of threats, Russia is by far the most serious. In response, NATO should prioritise—and enhance—its core task of collective defence. However, they recognised, it is essential for NATO to maintain a balance between the security interests of all Allies. They support the 360-degree approach and are ready to back and participate in efforts to deal with threats from other regions too. NATO should also retain its core tasks of crisis management and cooperative security. The Covid-19 pandemic suggests that NATO should re-calibrate the crisis management task to better reflect the need for collective support to the civilian authorities in large-scale efforts to deal with crises on Alliance territory. Our interviewees were generally cautious about otherwise expanding NATO’s roles and responsibilities, arguing that the Alliance should consider where it can add value, while avoiding overreach. They saw, for example, only a modest role for NATO in dealing with the challenge from China. They were, however, supportive of the Alliance developing further its global network of partnerships, both with states such as Australia, Japan and South Korea, and with other international organisations, notably the EU. NATO should also continue its cooperative security efforts with a focus on states in the immediate neighbourhood. And while further NATO enlargement is unlikely at present, the door should certainly remain open. Interviewees in all four states expressed concerns about the tensions within the Alliance and the lack of US leadership. While these tensions persist, it is probably unwise to consider drafting a new strategic concept. Nonetheless, the internal challenges might be eased if the Allies are prepared to use NATO to a greater extent as forum for consultation on a wide range of security issues.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Alliance, Deterrence, and Interview
Political Geography:
Poland and Baltic States

16184. Volunteers in Estonia’s Security Sector: Opportunities for Enhancing Societal Resilience

Author:
Ramon Loik
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
This policy paper assesses the involvement of volunteers acting in the public interest under Estonian law in the development of key characteristics of a broad security concept and reflects the main ongoing discussion points for widening their potential for ensuring collective security and public safety.
Topic:
Security, National Security, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Estonia

16185. Stabilising the Sahel. The Role of International Military Operations

Author:
Kalev Stoicescu
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The key question of this analysis is whether EU and/or NATO allies, including Estonia, would be willing and able to continue to support international efforts in Sahel (including military operations and missions – MINUSMA, EUTM and Barkhane), in particular following the Covid-19 pandemic. It is addressed to civilian and military decision makers and experts, especially in the countries that contribute to international military operations and missions in the Sahel.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Affairs, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

16186. Nothing New Under the Sun? Continuity and Change in Russian Policy Towards Ukraine

Author:
James Sherr
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The aims of this report are to explain Ukraine’s consolidation, resilience and determination to make its own decisions despite great asymmetries of power and Russia’s exploitation of its vulnerabilities and divisions; to describe why President Volodymyr Zelensky represents an opportunity as well as a challenge to Russia; and to set out necessary and realistic goals for the West.
Topic:
Security, History, Resilience, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

16187. Between the Chinese Dragon and American Eagle: 5G Development in the Baltic States

Author:
Maya Guzdar and Tomas Jermalavicius
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In the course of 2018-20, development of Fifth Generation (5G) communication networks has been increasingly influenced by the considerations of national security and geopolitics. The largest provider of 5G equipment, the Chinese mobile telecom giant Huawei, has come under fire from the U.S., Czechia, Poland, and other nations in recent years for attempted espionage, theft of intellectual property and other nefarious activities; in the past month, UK decided to ban Huawei technology from its networks. All this comes into sharp focus as the geopolitical confrontation between Washington and Beijing reaches new heights. However, China is one of the EU’s largest trading partners and has worked to establish its economic, political, and cultural influence in various Member States. The EU and NATO have both released standards for member states must use when gauging the security of potential 5G networks. Yet, the EU in particular has not enacted a blanket ban or sweeping restrictions on the Chinese 5G equipment providers, leaving the tradeoffs between national security, technological progress and cost-efficiency to individual states. Although the Baltic states are well-versed in dealing with cybersecurity challenges, their road to 5G development is going to be complex. Whole-of-society awareness, political diligence, technical competence, regional cooperation, and resilience to Beijing’s influence operations are needed in forging a clear path to 5G that is aligned with their key geopolitical interest—maintaining their close strategic alliance with the United States. This brief aims to explore the geopolitical factors at play in determining the Baltic states’ 5G policy and regulations, with a particular focus on the EU, U.S., and China’s influence. It also provides a short of overview of the state of current 5G networks and regulations in the Baltic states while identifying challenges that the region will face in the coming years.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Science and Technology, European Union, Cybersecurity, Resilience, and 5G
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Baltic States

16188. The Bronze Soldier Crisis of 2007: Revisiting an Early Case of Hybrid Conflict

Author:
Ivo Juurvee and Anna-Mariita Mattiisen
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
This report revisits the spring 2007 crisis in Estonia, centred on the World War II memorial known as the Bronze Soldier statue. The crisis is well-known both in Estonia and abroad. It was one of the first wake-up calls to the cooling of relations between Russia and the West. It also involved the first use of wide-ranging cyber-attacks against a state.
Topic:
Security, History, Cybersecurity, Resilience, Hybrid Warfare, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Estonia

16189. China’s Influence Activities in Estonia

Author:
Frank Jüris
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
China’s influence activities aim to create a positive image of China and to counter any kind of criticism. Influence activities in countries with big Chinese communities can mobilise the Chinese diaspora for the party’s benefit—there are plenty of examples from Finland and Sweden. But where this is not possible, propaganda work may fall to the CPC Central Committee’s International Liaison Department, which is responsible for exchanges with foreign parties. The International Liaison Department has been active in its interactions with Estonian politicians. Today, three former government ministers work for Powerhouse, which offers lobbying services for the Chinese company, Huawei. To a large extent, China’s influence activities in Estonia have so far gone unnoticed. This article aims to fill this gap.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and 5G
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Estonia, and Baltic States

16190. Democracy, ‘Alternative Reality’ and Estonia’s Resilience

Author:
Dmitri Teperik
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The brief explores reasons why the concerns, grievances and perceptions of all vulnerable societal groups should receive adequate attention if further harm inflicted by fact-free and/or fact-twisting ‘alternative realities’ is to be averted. As some intergroup differences fall notably along the lines related to age, levels of educational attainment, overall welfare and life satisfaction, perceptions of inclusion, and geography, the pervasiveness of misconceptions and social myths as well as their impact on the attitudes, perceptions, and behaviour of citizens can be considered as reliable indicators of societal resilience in Estonia.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Democracy, Resilience, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
Estonia and Baltic States

16191. Strengthening NATO’s Cohesion Through Consultation

Author:
Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In the first of a new series of policy briefs intended to shed light on some of the issues related to the Alliance’s further adaptation and their possible impacts in the Baltic region, Wojciech Lorenz of the Polish Institute of International Affairs examines how NATO’s mechanisms for consultation among Allies have evolved in response to shifts in the security environment, and offers suggestions as to how these mechanisms might be strengthened as a means of mitigating tensions in NATO today.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Baltic States

16192. China in Europe and Transatlantic Security

Author:
Andrew A. Michta
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Andrew A. Michta argues that the governments of Central and Eastern European countries will need to weigh the benefit to them of continued economic engagement with China, especially in the area of 5G.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Economy, Transatlantic Relations, and 5G
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16193. Capability and Resolve: Deterrence, Security and Stability in the Baltic Region

Author:
Heinrich Brauss, Kalev Stoicescu, and Tony Lawrence
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014, NATO has revitalised its core business of deterrence and defence and adapted it to today’s political and geostrategic circumstances. In the Baltic region, the most visible expression of this effort has been the deployment of the enhanced Forward Presence battlegroups in Poland and the three Baltic states. These are, in turn, backed up by a readiness and reinforcement strategy, which NATO has also strengthened through the adoption of a number of measures agreed by the Allies. But deterrence is a complex matter that involves political, diplomatic, military, economic, cyber, information-related, and other aspects. In the Baltic region, the constraints of geography coupled with the proximity of the region to Russia pose particular challenges to NATO’s approach. The region remains a focus of tensions between Russia and the West and the three Baltic states are still NATO’s most vulnerable members. Moscow, meanwhile, pretends that it is particularly threatened in the Baltic region, where it regards the territory of the Baltic states as a potential bridgehead of American power projection and presents NATO’s deterrence measures as a deliberate, unprovoked and unjustified build-up of forces around its periphery. Two interdependent developments in the period since 2014 have pointed to a particular need to re-examine the credibility of NATO’s posture as it pertains to the Baltic region: first, Russia’s continued programme to achieve conventional military superiority in its western direction; and second, its recent deployment of new mobile, land-based, intermediate-range, nuclear-capable missiles. The former has given Russia has a substantial numerical advantage in ground forces in the Baltic region which give Moscow the option of executing a rapid land-grab attack before NATO could react. The latter could be used to try to decouple Europe from the extended nuclear deterrence provided by the US, paralysing NATO decision making and undermining the Allies’ resolve. Full and expeditious implementation of all decisions taken at Warsaw and Brussels to strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defence posture is therefore imperative. In this policy paper, we recommend some steps that NATO should take in order to strengthen the deterrent effect of NATO forces and to ensure that timely reinforcement of its peripheries is feasible. In the light of a US Congressional request for a detailed assessment from the Pentagon on whether to expand US military presence in the Baltic states, we pay particular attention to the role of US forces in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Political stability, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia and Baltic States

16194. Preparing for Crises in Estonia: Improvement Options for Civilian Food and Emergency Goods Supplies

Author:
Ivo Juurvee and Ramon Loik
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Estonian Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications and the Estonian Ministry of Rural Affairs commissioned the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) to compile a list of civilian food and emergency goods supplies, estimated average amounts of supplies at home and in stores, and calculations for the price of national emergency goods supplies and logistics. In addition to the quantities of food and industrial goods, the contracting authorities were interested in the legal issues of stockpiling and the possibilities of storage and distribution. Water, fuel, and drug supplies were not covered by the studies. In the course of the research, the experts also reviewed the solutions of Finland, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Lithuania and other countries and took into account the recommendations of international organisations. The experience of other countries suggests that involving businesses and maintaining the operation of trading networks in the event of a crisis are of key importance. It is reasonable to organise logistics centrally, as crisis transport cannot be ordered separately by ministries and local authorities. Recommendations for the division of tasks between the state and local governments: State-level tasks: Ensure that the goods required in a crisis situation exist through purchases or pre-contracts. Ensure the timely delivery of required food products and emergency goods to distribution points in municipalities (e.g. through pre-contracts with logistics companies). Support local authorities in planning the distribution of goods and test their preparedness by organising special exercises. Local government-level tasks (preparations for distribution of goods): Have an overview of the population and where people are. Coordinate with the state-level to identify the locations of existing and potential additional distribution points that should be situated in the vicinity of shopping centres or other locations people are familiar with visiting. Plan the local distribution of supplies and find relevant partners.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Food, Crisis Management, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Estonia and Baltic States

16195. Until Something Moves: Reinforcing the Baltic Region in Crisis and War

Author:
Ben Hodges, Tony Lawrence, and Ray Wojcik
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
NATO’s ability to efficiently move large and heavy armed forces into and across Europe is a key aspect of its deterrence and defence posture. In establishing the enhanced Forward Presence in Poland and the three Baltic states, NATO leaders acknowledged that credible deterrence would also require these small multinational forces to be underpinned by a robust reinforcement strategy. In this report, we examine this key aspect of NATO’s defence and deterrence posture as it relates to the Baltic region. In a crisis, military movement in Europe is likely to be confronted by legal and procedural obstacles, by the limited capacity of infrastructure, and by issues related to coordination, command and control. The severity of these problems would vary according to the type of crisis. For an operation to restore Alliance territory following an armed attack, the sheer scale and breadth of NATO’s requirements for military movement would present a major challenge to Europe’s transport infrastructure, and to prioritisation and coordination efforts. NATO has had little practice in reinforcing Allies at scale since the end of the Cold War. A preventative deployment to respond to a potential crisis, meanwhile, would put a premium on speed of movement. In this case, legal and procedural obstacles may be more problematic as timescales for dealing with the bureaucracy would be similar to the timescales for the movement itself. NATO and the EU have cooperated widely to mitigate the legal and procedural challenges of moving armed forces across the European continent, but the processes in place remain numerous and complex. NATO and the EU have also collaborated on the harder task of ensuring that transport infrastructure is suited to military needs. Movement would be challenged by both physical constraints, such as weight limits on roads and bridges and traffic volume restrictions for rail transport, and procedural ones, such as the limitations of the contractual arrangements necessary to enable the use of civilian railway wagons and heavy equipment transporters for military purposes. Such constraints, while manageable in peacetime, may make it difficult to meet the armed forces’ requirements for large-scale movement during crisis. Furthermore, the Baltic region also lacks supporting logistics infrastructure, for example for receiving and staging (and sustaining for extended periods) forces that have arrived in the region. A third set of challenges arises from the need for coordination among the multiple agencies involved in the movement of armed forces. Even amongst movement specialists there is no clear picture of how these agencies would work together during crises or of how movements would be prioritised to serve the operational needs of the Joint Force Commander.
Topic:
NATO, War, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Poland and Baltic States

16196. Dilemmas of Arms Control: Meeting the Interests of NATO’s North-Eastern Flank

Author:
Artur Kacprzyk and Lukasz Kulesa
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
While the countries of NATO’s north-eastern flank—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland—are correctly putting emphasis in their security policy on strengthening deterrence, they need to take a more proactive stance on arms control. Although current prospects are not promising in the light of Russian violations and circumventions of existing treaties, demand for greater engagement with Russia on arms control is growing among NATO nations. Without a constructive input from the flank countries, NATO’s arms-control agenda and the actions of individual European Allies could become detached from deterrence efforts and weaken NATO cohesion. The north-eastern countries should thus identify and promote balanced solutions that can be used to increase the region’s security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia

16197. Estonia in the UN Security Council: The Importance and Limits of European Cooperation

Author:
Kristi Raik
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In January 2020, Estonia became a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for a two-year term. The international environment, meanwhile, is becoming increasingly challenging for multilateral cooperation and a rules-based global order. The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the lack of global leadership, previously provided by the US, and inability of the UNSC to mobilise international cooperation. In recent years, European cooperation in the UNSC has increased, while transatlantic tensions and great-power rivalry have grown. Estonia has taken an active role in shaping the joint positions of EU states in the UNSC, for example on issues related to the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP), Ukraine and Syria. The case of the MEPP in particular illustrates that it has become more difficult to reconcile good transatlantic relations with a consistent commitment to the EU, multilateralism and international law. It is in Estonia’s interest to work towards as much consensus as possible between Europe and the US and, on issues where this is not feasible, to avoid exacerbating the tensions. At the same time, Estonia has a strong interest in being consistent on international law, even if at times this means disagreeing with its most important security ally. The dilemma for Estonia and the EU as a whole is how to work to maintain the rules-based order while simultaneously adapting to its erosion and change. The EU should move on from joint statements to more action and the generation of a real ability to enforce international law and resolve conflicts, especially in its own neighbourhood. The need for Europe’s active role in tackling global problems has also been evident during the COVID-19 crisis.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, United Nations, European Union, UN Security Council, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and Estonia

16198. Academic Co-operation with the People’s Republic of China: Dangers and Temptations

Author:
Märt Läänemets
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Critical Article from University of Tartu’s magazine was not published at first due to pressure coming from university’s the administration, that was afraid of the negative impact to its collaboration with Huawei. Members from the Estonian Oriental Society condemned university’s reaction, because they saw it as threat to freedom of speech and academic freedom. Besides the silencing effect of Chinese funding, this brief addresses other potential threats from scientific espionage to soft power based influencing activities.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Academia
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16199. Winds of Change, or More of the Same?

Author:
Tomas Jermalavicius, Priit Mändmaa, Emma Hakala, Tomas Janeliūnas, Juris Ozoliņš, and Krystian Kowalewski
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
By coincidence perhaps more than design, the ‘winds of change’ in the twelve months between autumn 2018 and 2019 ushered in new governments—whether through national elections or through coalition reshuffling—in five Baltic Sea littoral states: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Yet, amidst sometimes rather turbulent domestic political debates, one key cluster of topics was virtually absent: energy security and climate policy. With the vital exception of Finland—a state with a relatively strong Green movement and long tradition of climate and environmental activism—no country saw climate or energy security targets raised as key campaign issues. To the extent that energy security and climate topics were mentioned at all, they either were minimized due to parties’ fear of alienating key voting blocs (as with the coal mining sector in Poland), confined to energy stakeholders and technical audiences due their complexity (as with electricity desynchronisation in the Baltic countries) or completely assimilated into a cross-party foreign policy consensus (as in the universal opposition in Lithuania to the Astravyets nuclear power plant project in Belarus). While domestic factors—including perceived national interests in ensuring energy self-sufficiency—contributed to a serious case of policy inertia, small and interconnected countries do not of course exist in a vacuum. Accordingly, international factors—from the continuing use of energy policy as an instrument of geopolitical power by Russia, to the growing consensus in the EU in favor of more ambitious climate targets—have done more to raise the salience of these issues, especially after the von der Leyen Commission took office in Brussels at the end of 2019 and put forward the so-called European Green Deal. These exogenous factors have finally, for instance, triggered a broader reassessment in Estonia of that country’s rather leisurely planned phase-out of oil shale power generation, while pushing political leaders in all five countries at least rhetorically to embrace the goal of a carbon-neutral future (albeit with considerable differences in timelines and methodology). Amidst a volatile international economic and geopolitical context that—since the time work began on this report—now includes a major global pandemic and a dramatic fall in fossil fuel demand and prices, the region’s political and economic leaders clearly cannot count on being able to make their policy selections in a vacuum. While the goal of an integrated regional energy market is closer than ever to being achieved, regional cooperation still has much to be desired; differing attitudes to issues both technical (e.g. harmonising natural gas regulations, which has left Lithuania outside a new regional market) or fundamental (importing third-country electricity generated without regard to EU climate or pollution standards) leave all five countries less able to respond to challenges ahead. While the region’s countries have largely relied on Brussels to broker compromises (often with the help of considerable funding), in a post-pandemic world, both the political bandwidth and financial resources will likely be constrained. In its country sections, this report captures a valuable snapshot of the relative inertia as well as the degree of evolution of the energy and climate policies of the five countries in the face of that year’s fairly calm international context. Given the significant economic, human, and political changes underway as a result of the pandemic, however, it is an open question to what extent the region can weather the far more turbulent times ahead. The political and societal willingness to pursue the energy transition to a carbon-neutral future through new—more ambitious and certainly more expensive—energy and climate policies as a response to the climate emergency will very much depend on how the impact of the pandemic plays out globally, in Europe and in the Baltic area. It will also require strong leadership from a new generation of political, business and societal leaders able to see green recovery as a major opportunity for their nations in terms of economic development, social welfare and national security.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Environment, Politics, Governance, European Union, Economy, Sustainability, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Baltic States

16200. China’s Sovereignty and Internet Governance

Author:
Kadri Kaska and Maria Tolppa
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Increasingly, China’s expanding role in the evolution and development of both the global economy and digital technologies must be acknowledged. A vivid example of this is the active debate over the development of 5G networks over the past few years, in which countries increasingly understand that the impact of new technologies on national security interests must be taken into account when they are implemented. Recent amendments to the Electronic Communications Act in Estonia will create a basis for managing such security risks in our country. Major conceptual difference is that China treats the internet above all as an information space that, to be protected from “subverting state power, undermining national unity [or] infringing upon national honour and interests”, must be strictly organised and controlled by the government.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia