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1. CTC Sentinel: March 2023 Issue

Author:
Emilia Columbo, Kristina Hummel, Madeleine Biscaichipy, Alexander Ritzmann, and Francesco Marone
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This month’s feature article focuses on the challenge posed by the evolving Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique. Emilia Columbo writes: “The deployment of regional military and police forces to Cabo Delgado Province in northern Mozambique to assist the Mozambican government against what was then a growing jihadi insurgency nearly two years ago has introduced new dynamics into the conflict, expanding the insurgency’s presence in the region and increasing the importance of the information space as each side works to persuade its constituencies that the conflict is proceeding in its favor.” She assesses that the sustainability of security gains along the coast “will depend largely on the government’s willingness to develop and implement a more balanced counterterrorism approach that addresses the underlying grievances driving this conflict.” Our interview is with Jessica White and Galen Lamphere-Englund, co-conveners of the Extremism and Gaming Research Network, which started a little over two years ago as a practitioner- and researcher-led initiative to try and unpack concerning developments in the online space. Alexander Ritzmann writes that “the alleged plot against the German government by the Reichsbürger group Patriotic Union, whose key members were arrested on December 7, 2022, is best understood as a thwarted, possible early-stage terrorist plot, rather than a preempted imminent violent coup attempt. The Reichsbürger, who are comprised of different groups and networks, claim that the German state of today does not legally exist. Many Reichsbürger ascribe to a version of the anti-Semitic ‘New World Order,’ others believe in ‘QAnon.’” He notes that “although the vast majority of Reichsbürger are neither considered violent nor right-wing extremists by German security agencies, the threat posed by a minority of violent and extremist Reichsbürger persists, with German security agencies continuing to thwart alleged violent activity linked to different Reichsbürger groups.” Francesco Marone examines how an ongoing hunger strike by the imprisoned insurrectionary anarchist terrorist Alfredo Cospito has amplified the threat in and beyond Italy posed by “a transnational extremist tendency that promotes ‘self-organized’ illegal and violent actions, even against people.”
Topic:
Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Italy, and Mozambique

2. Democracy and the Politics of Ethnicity and Language in Pakistan During the Bhutto Regime: A Case Study of Balochistan

Author:
Changiz Ahmed, Mohammad Ali, and Adnan Riaz
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The article studies the dynamics of ethnic conflict in Balochistan and its relation to the paradigm of democracy in Pakistan during the first elected government in the Bhutto Era. Like many third-world countries, the language controversies in Pakistan have provoked ethnic and political conflicts. Due to disagreements over the national language, the government was unable to develop a constitution for nearly 9 years after independence. Though the dispute was theoretically resolved in 1956, it continues to haunt the state. Although Bhutto was an elected leader, his rule was not immune to ethnic conflicts. Ethnic sentiments garnered attention in Balochistan, triggering confrontations and secessionist tendencies. An insurgency began in Balochistan, causing harm to both the Baloch and the state, and it still exists. The article affirms that in this context, ethnic conflicts have political objectives; the main causes of such conflicts are political, such as under-representation in state institutions, unequal distribution of resources, economic disparities, and, in many cases, the state elite's reluctance to recognise the identity of a particular ethnic minority.
Topic:
Politics, Insurgency, Democracy, Ethnicity, Language, Federalism, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Balochistan

3. Mirroring its British masters: state and outsourced terrorism against the Maoist insurgency

Author:
Felipe Costa Lima
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
The Indian state has been adopting controversial policies for countering the Maoist insurgency. Even worse, this behaviour seems to mirror British colonial attitudes against India’s population at some level. Consequently, this article attempts to understand this probable ‘paradoxical’ conduct. With the support of the post-structuralist theory, I discuss state and outsourced terrorist practices of the Indian state apparatus against this insurgency. To reach this goal, first, I try to explicate the concept of state terrorism and its application in India. Then, I analyse the historical development of the Maoist movement and India’s concrete policies of state and outsourced terrorism against this counter-hegemonic movement. I believe the British Raj’s colonial practices have had a deep dialectical influence on India’s state apparatus and major political parties to date. So, this inquiry may clarify the persistence of colonial practices within India.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Colonialism, State Sponsored Terrorism, and Maoism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, South Asia, and India

4. Al-Shabab in Mozambique: Taking Stock of an Insurgency Under Cover

Author:
Tom Van Rentergem
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Since the first attack in October 2017, Mozambique has been confronted with an extremist insurgency called Ansar Al-Sunna Wa Jamma (ASWJ), also known as Al-Shabab (not to be confused with Al-Shabab in Somalia). The alleged Jihadists targeted the Mozambican coastline and have carried out indiscriminate attacks in the Northern province of Cabo Delgado, with the capture of coastal towns Mocimboa Da Praia in 2020 and Palma in 2021 being important markers for the insurgents. The intense five-year conflict has resulted in 4,000 people dead and 800,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), roughly half of the province. The identity of the insurgents has become subject for debate among policy makers and researchers, raising questions about whether the group is primarily a local insurgency or whether there are tangible links to Jihadism in other areas of Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

5. January 2022 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Don Rassler, Brian Fishman, and Amira Jadoon
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Notwithstanding a night attack that killed 11 Iraqi soldiers on an army base in the Iraqi province of Diyala earlier this month, the Islamic State is at its lowest ebb in Iraq in many years, according to new data published by Michael Knights and Alex Almeida in this month’s feature article. They write that “a comprehensive analysis of attack metrics shows an insurgency that has deteriorated in both the quality of its operations and overall volume of attack activity, which has fallen to its lowest point since 2003. The Islamic State is increasingly isolated from the population, confined to remote rural backwaters controlled by Iraq’s less effective armed forces and militias, and lacks reach into urban centers.” They note that “the key analytical quandary that emerges from this picture is whether the downtrend marks the onset of an enduring decline for the group, or if the Islamic State is merely lying low while laying the groundwork for its survival as a generational insurgency.” In this month’s interview, Amy Zegart speaks to Brian Fishman and Don Rassler about her soon-to-be published book Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In the interview, she calls for the creation in the United States of a dedicated open-source intelligence agency because “OSINT will never get the priority or resources the nation needs without its own agency.” Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, and Andrew Mines assess the threat trajectory of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They assess that “given the absence of multilateral counterterrorism pressure, the Taliban’s limited capacity to govern, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, ISK now finds itself perhaps in the most permissive environment yet to rebuild, rally, and expand.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork, including interviews with bandits and jihadi defectors, James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz examine the nexus between Nigeria’s bandits and jihadi organizations in northwestern Nigeria. They find that despite widespread fears bandits and jihadis would find common cause, there has been infrequent cooperation between them because they have conflicting approaches in their treatment of local inhabitants and because the more powerful bandits feel they have little to gain from working with the jihadis.
Topic:
Crime, Insurgency, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Nigeria

6. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war with Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency has dragged on for fifteen years. As it reviews its options, Somalia’s new government should look into what room there might be for dialogue with the group. The alternative is more fighting with no end in sight.
Topic:
Insurgency, Governance, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

7. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin

Author:
Leif Brottem
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Insurgency, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Benin

8. Rethinking Military Responses to Terrorism and Insurgency in Nigeria

Author:
Maurice Ogbonnaya
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Since 2003, terrorist insurgency in Nigeria has occasioned complex security and humanitarian crises, especially in the northeast region of the country. Boko Haram, a radical Islamist group from the region, has killed over 30,000 people and caused the displacement of more than 3 million others within the Lake Chad Basin region. Military responses by the Nigerian state and in collaboration with multilateral security agencies have achieved limited success. This paper not only questions the adequacy of military responses to terrorism, as a standalone approach, but it also advances the argument in the extant literature on the obsolescence of excessive militarization of counterterrorism operations as a security management strategy. It suggests the adoption of a more comprehensive and broad-based strategic approach. This is predicated on the limitations of purely military operations in counterterrorism, noting that military responses alone are structurally not designed to deal with the fundamental root causes of terrorism. In this regard, the paper advocates for a combination of military and other non-military counterterrorism approaches that seek to address the fundamental factors that give rise to terrorism.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Economic Inequality, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

9. Naxal-Maoist Insurgency Trends in India During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Author:
Aastha Kaul
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
As countries continue to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that its impact extends far beyond public health and safety, with the ability to shape political behavior and conflict. The interplay between disease and disorder is perhaps most visible in India, which has been one of the nations worst affected by the coronavirus. Following the onset of the pandemic, ACLED records an escalation of conflict in Jammu & Kashmir (for more see this spotlight infographic from ACLED’s COVID-19 Disorder Tracker) as well as a new wave of political unrest in the northeast (for more see this ACLED report on political violence in northeast India). In contrast, ACLED data show a decline in events in 2020 related to the Naxal-Maoist insurgency, one of India’s oldest post-independence conflicts. The restrictions surrounding the coronavirus pandemic impacted the Naxal-Maoist insurgency in two significant ways. First, the lockdown worsened already strained supply chains, preventing cadres from accessing vital resources such as rations and weaponry. Second, dwindling supplies subsequently affected operational capacity as insurgents were unable to effectively carry out their annual tactical counter-offensive campaign (TCOC). The combination of these factors has led to an overall decline of Naxal-Maoist activity in 2020, compared to the year prior. A comparative analysis of ACLED data for 2019 and 2020 reveals these trends and offer insights into the changing nature of the conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence, Insurgency, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

10. The Rise of Insurgent Europeanism

Author:
Luke Cooper, Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz, Mary Kaldor, Niccolò Milanese, and Iavor Rangelov
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Civil society in Europe and its attitudes towards the European project have changed dramatically in the past decade of multiple crises. This study mapped, tracked and monitored developments in European civil society from 2018 to 2020, revealing the nature and implications of these changes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, Insurgency, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe

11. Dealing with Violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:
Herman J. Cohen
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Editor’s Note: American Diplomacy Journal asked several foreign policy commentators to address the significance of growing chaos in many parts of the world, as failed and failing states are increasingly unable to perform the fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state. This is one of five articles looking at those concerns. Because of its vast size, about equal to the U.S. east of the Mississippi, and its large deposits of strategic minerals, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is of special interest to American and western national security. In the current rush to develop renewable energy, for example, the minerals cobalt and lithium are essential. The DRC is the most important source of these minerals outside of Russia. The DRC is also one of the few countries that produces columbite and tantalum that are necessary for the world’s portable phones. The DRC is also host to the second largest tropical rain forest in the world after the Amazon. Preservation of this carbon sink is essential to the worldwide effort to limit global warming. The maintenance of stability in the DRC, a country that has seen long periods of instability in its sixty-year history, is therefore an international priority. With the end of the Kabila regime in the Democratic Republic of the Congo came new hopes for peace and progress in one of Africa’s most historically violent and corrupt nations. Yet since President Felix Tshisekedi’s administration formally assumed power in January 2019, the eastern DRC has seen thousands of murders and kidnappings, in a dramatic escalation of violence. The second quarter of 2021 was the deadliest in recent history, according to the nonprofit Kivu Security Tracker: 564 killings over just the past three months. Hundreds of discrete militias and insurgencies operate in the area – rendering a negotiated settlement unlikely – but the single worst offender is the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a decades-old Ugandan group responsible for 37% of civilian killings, far more than any other faction. President Tshisekedi pledged to “definitively exterminate” the ADF during a “final offensive” shortly after his inauguration, but so far this initiative has been met with failure, while massacres and other human rights abuses increase in frequency and brutality. With international aid dwindling under pandemic pressures, how can the Tshisekedi administration rein in the ADF and other militant groups, and get the violence under control? Insurgencies can be intractable even for the world’s largest and best equipped militaries. But Congo’s militants have three unique advantages: a steady source of finance, infighting in Congo’s civilian government, and corrupt allies in the Congolese armed forces (FARDC).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, Insurgency, Natural Resources, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and United States of America

12. Baluch Nationalist-Separatist Militant Alliance Threatens Pakistani Security Forces

Author:
Farhan Zahid
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Pakistan’s restive Baluchistan province has experienced a fresh wave of nationalist-separatist terrorist attacks since 2019, with new targets indicating shifting trends. Baluch nationalist–separatist militant groups have not only ramped up their attacks, but also have changed strategy and formed a new alliance. The implications of this are a steep incline in attacks against the Pakistani security forces.
Topic:
Security, Nationalism, Insurgency, Non State Actors, Islamism, and Separatism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

13. Inside Duterte’s Failed Response to the Philippines’ Communist Insurgency and the Appeal of New People’s Army among Indigenous Peoples

Author:
Jack Broome
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On December 7, 2020, following speculation in the news, the Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte finally announced that the government would not offer a holiday ceasefire—as is tradition for this time of year—to the New People’s Army (NPA), the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). Duterte’s announcement came during his weekly address to the nation on the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but Duterte went one step further by declaring that peace talks are “dead” and there would no longer be any ceasefires for the remainder of his presidency (abs-cbn.com, December 8, 2020).
Topic:
Communism, Terrorism, Insurgency, Non State Actors, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

14. Conflict Dynamics in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province

Author:
Theo Neethling
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The ongoing militant insurgency and conflict in the upper north-eastern Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique has been brewing since 2017. However, it only gained the attention of the international community in mid-August 2020 when the Islamist extremist movement, Al Sunnah wa Jama’ah (or Ansar al-Sunna), captured the port town of Mocimboa da Praia in the north-eastern part of the country. This was not the first capturing of the town, as the insurgents – many of whom reportedly are originally from Mocimboa da Praia – earlier also briefly took control of the town in March 2020. At the same time, the town of Quissanga, approximately 180 km further south, then became the most targeted area in 2020, although the insurgents focused attacks on several other towns and districts. The insurgents further specifically targeted military and police forces, while the population in Cabo Delgado experienced horrific brutality in the form of killings, including beheadings, and other forms of violence that led to internal displacements and food shortages in the affected areas.[1] What followed were harsh security responses from the Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique (Mozambican Defence and Security Forces) (FDS),[2] similar to indiscriminate responses elsewhere in conflict zones in Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel, and the Maghreb. The escalating attacks and heavy-handed responses have only heightened distrust among local residents and are alleged to have enhanced recruitment by the insurgents.[3] Currently, Cabo Delgado province is caught up in a security challenge with national, regional and international implications. The situation not only endangers the lives of tens of thousands of Mozambicans, but is also destabilising the upper north-eastern parts of Mozambique and certainly poses a threat to foreign direct investment pertaining to large-scale infrastructure, mining, exploration (especially natural gas), and other projects in Mozambique and the region.[4]
Topic:
Security, Insurgency, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

15. South Sudan’s Civil War: Violence, Insurgency and Failed Peacemaking

Author:
Stephen Arrno
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This scholarly contribution by John Young offers an insightful critique and evaluation of liberal peacemaking and internationalism that has shaped post-cold war approaches to Africa. Examining South Sudan’s peacemaking process, the book refutes modernist and liberal peace epistemologies that deficiency in governance, underdevelopment, and failed peace are caused by internal factors. The main argument is that failed peacemaking in South Sudan, and previously in Sudan, has been induced by external forces. Organised into eight chapters, South Sudan’s Civil War: Violence, Insurgency and Failed Peacemaking outlines missed opportunities to resolving the Sudan conflict. The author takes the Turco-Egyptian empire that exposed South Sudan to a global economy of slavery as the starting point. The British who came to the Sudan to avenge the death of Gordon Pasha established an administration of ‘benign neglect’ that ended in the integration of South Sudan into an asymmetrical economy and polity. After two civil wars, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) enabled the birth of an independent South Sudan, with the Agreement providing a trade-off between self-determination and democratic transformation (p. 10). The ruling party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), manufactured shallow political unity to promote the referendum for independence. All promises for an elaborate transformative agenda and successful post-independence transitional period were abandoned and neglected. The book criticises the liberation movement (SPLM) and the United States (US) administration for causing conflict. The central thesis of the book considers the independence of South Sudan as the root cause of conflict by endorsing the SPLM’s tyranny (p. 65).
Topic:
Civil War, Insurgency, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan