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3001. Crises, Hegemony and Change in the International System: A Conceptual Framework

Author:
Dirk Nabers
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper tries to shed light on the conceptual link between international crises like the one following September 11, 2001, the Asian financial crisis of 1997/1998, the end of the Cold War or major international conflicts, and processes of change in the international system. It argues that cultural structures rest on their continuous instantiation through social practices, thereby making them coterminous with process. Process is constituted by meaningful acts of social agents, and can thus only be grasped by analysing meaning. Meaning is transmitted by language. Meaningful language is never reducible to individual speakers; it is a social act. In the paper, I call this process discourse. Linking Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) with the theory of hegemony developed by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe, I will finally be able to show how hegemonic discourses serve as the nexus between crises and cultural structures and how they make cultural change possible.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:
Asia

3002. Political Party and Party System Institutionalisation in Southeast Asia: A Comparison of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand

Author:
Andreas Ufen
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
It is generally acknowledged that a higher degree of party and party systems institutionalisation is positively correlated with the consolidation of democracy. It is, thus, useful to compare different levels and types of institutionalisation. In this article the distinction made by Levitsky ("value infusion' vs.'behavioural infusion') with reference to party institutionalisation will be employed. Moreover, institutionalised party systems are characterized, according to Mainwaring and Torcal, by 'stability of interpary competition'. The empirical research of this paper finds that the early organisational consolidaton of social cleavages, such as in Indonesia, enhances institutionalisation. Furthermore, the relation between central and local elites appears to be essential strong bosses or cliques undermine institutionalisation in the Philippines and in Thailand respectively. Most Indonesian parties are better institutionalised than those in the Philippines and Thailand with reference to 'value infusion'. In addition, the party system in Indonesia is better institutionalised in terms of 'stability of interpary competition'.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

3003. Crafting Political Institutions in Africa. Electoral Systems and Systems of Government in Rwanda and Zambia Compared

Author:
Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Scholars of institutional design attribute large importance to the choice of new institutions. The comparative analysis of how Rwanda and Zambia crafted their new electoral systems and the systems of government regards procedural, structural and rational choice variables which may influence the option for particular solutions. External influences and the type of transition are determinants that can decide which actors make their interests prevail. The degree of innovation or conservatism of new institutions is mainly a result of the speed of the process and the kind of actors involved. However, rational reflections on how to produce legitimacy and minimize personal risks which take into consideration the state of conflict in the country decide on the speed and on innovative outcomes. The structured analysis of only two cases uncovers already that it is rather difficult to realise the transfer of design recommendations into reality.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, and Holland

3004. Free Distribution Or Cost-Sharing? Evidence From A Randomized Malaria Prevention Experiment

Author:
Jessica Cohen
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
It is widely believed that cost-sharing—charging a subsidized, positive price—for a health product is necessary to avoid wasting resources on those who will not use or do not need the product. We explore this argument in the context of a field experiment in Kenya, in which we randomized the price at which pregnant women could buy long lasting anti-malarial insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) at prenatal clinics. We find no evidence that cost-sharing reduces wastage on those that will not use the product: women who received free ITNs are not less likely to use them than those who paid subsidized positive prices. We also find no evidence that cost-sharing induces selection of women who need the net more: those who pay higher prices appear no sicker than the prenatal clients in the control group in terms of measured anemia (an important indicator of malaria). Cost-sharing does, however, considerably dampen demand. We find that uptake drops by 75 percent when the price of ITNs increases from 0 to $0.75, the price at which ITNs are currently sold to pregnant women in Kenya. We combine our estimates in a cost-effectiveness analysis of ITN prices on infant mortality that incorporates both private and social returns to ITN usage. Overall, given the large positive externality associated with widespread usage of insecticide-treated nets, our results suggest that free distribution to pregnant women is both more effective and more cost-effective than cost-sharing.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Health, and World Health Organization
Political Geography:
Kenya

3005. Utility Payments as Alternative Credit Data: A Reality Check

Author:
Sara Burr and Virginia Carlson
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Access to credit is one of the cornerstones of wealth-building in the United States. Yet, between 35 million and 54 million persons are not participating in the credit market. Many individuals outside the credit mainstream are unable to access credit, or credit at competitive rates, because of the lack of traditional information, such as mortgage and credit card payments, available on their credit files. However, there is evidence that the inclusion of alternative data on credit-like payments, such as utility payments, in credit reporting can help bridge this information gap. The first step toward filling this gap requires utility companies to systematically report these data to the major credit bureaus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

3006. The Third California: The Golden State's New Frontier

Author:
Joel Kotkin and William H. Frey
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
For most Americans, California evokes coastal images, the sunny beaches of south or the spectacular urban vistas of San Francisco Bay. Yet within California itself, the state's focus is shifting increasingly beyond the narrow strip of land between the coast- line and its first line of mountain ranges.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, America, and California

3007. Committing to Prosperity: Moving Forward on the Agenda to Renew Pennsylvania

Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Pennsylvania is at once the same and different, three years after the release of the 2003 Brookings Institution report “Back to Prosperity,” which proposed a new vision for how Pennsylvania might revitalize its cities, towns, and regions in order to compete more energetically in today's global economy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and Pennsylvania

3008. A Pathway to the Middle Class: Migration and Demographic Change in Prince George's County

Author:
Alice M. Rivlin and Brooke DeRenzis
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The Washington area is growing and decentralizing. From 1990 to 2000, the District of Columbia's population declined while the number of people living in surrounding suburbs increased. Prince George's County was among the suburban jurisdictions that experienced population growth, increasing by 10 percent from about 729,000 residents in 1990 to over 800,000 in 2000. Prince George's continues to grow, with an estimated 840,000 residents in 2005.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Migration
Political Geography:
Washington

3009. A Local Ladder for Low-Income Workers: Recent Trends in the Earned Income Tax Credit

Author:
Elizabeth Kneebone
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The first half of this decade brought with it a range of economic challenges, including increased unemployment, stagnant family incomes, and rising poverty.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Government

3010. Data DNA: The Next Generation of Statistical Metadata

Author:
Cynthia M. Taeuber, Daniel W. Gillman, and Laura Smith
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Statistical metadata is commonly defined as data about data. Metadata documents information about a statistical dataset's background, purpose, content, collection, processing, quality, and related information that an analyst needs to find, understand, and manipulate statistical data. As such, the metadata for a statistical dataset broadens the number and diversity of people who can successfully use a data source once it is released. It is the purpose of this paper to discuss issues related to the development and use of statistical metadata and to describe resources to standardize and automate statistical metadata. While there are many types of metadata – this paper is concerned only with statistical metadata.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

3011. Katrina Index: Tracking Recovery of New Orleans and the Metro Area

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
On the eve of its second Mardi Gras since Katrina, New Orleans stands poised to gain a larger economic benefit from the event than in did in 2006. Twenty additional hotels have opened since last year's Mardi Gras, and the New Orleans airport is now accommodating 100,000 more arriving passengers each month.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States

3012. Restoring Prosperity: The State Role in Revitalizing America's Older Industrial Cities

Author:
Jennifer S. Vey
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The evidence is clear. On the whole, America's central cities are coming back. Employment is up, populations are growing, and many urban real estate markets are hotter than ever, with increasing numbers of young people, empty-nesters, and others choosing city life over the suburbs.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and Government
Political Geography:
America

3013. Saluting Urban Market Pathfinders

Author:
Alyssa Stewart Lee
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
While many developers and investors intuitively believe in the potential for profitable returns in American cities, there is a lack of visibility into what works and what does not work in urban markets. This week the Urban Markets Initiative at the Brookings Institution honors Urban Market Pathfinders who have demonstrated excellence capturing market potential by investing in communities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, Development, and Markets
Political Geography:
America

3014. Nigeria's Economic Reforms Progress and Challenges

Author:
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Philip Osafo-Kwaako
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Following years of economic stagnation, Nigeria embarked on a comprehensive reform program during the second term of the Obasanjo administration. The program was based on the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS) and focused on four main areas: improving the macroeconomic environment, pursuing structural reforms, strengthening public expenditure management, and implementing institutional and governance reforms. This paper reviews Nigeria's recent experience with economic reforms and outlines major policy measures that have been implemented. Although there have been notable achievements under the program, significant challenges exist, particularly in translating the benefits of reforms into welfare improvements for citizens, in improving the domestic business environment, and in extending reform policies to states and local governments. Consequently, we argue that the recent reform program must be viewed as the initial steps of a much longer journey of economic recovery and sustained growth. This paper concludes by outlining a number of outstanding issues that future Nigerian administrations must address.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3015. Making Trade Agreements Relevant for Poor Countries: Why Dispute Settlement Is Not Enough

Author:
Bernard Hoekman and Chad Brown
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Poor countries are rarely challenged in formal WTO trade disputes for failing to live up to commitments, reducing the benefits of their participation in international trade agreements. This paper examines the political-economic causes of the failure to challenge poor countries and discusses the static and dynamic costs and externality implications of this failure. Given the weak incentives to enforce WTO rules and disciplines against small and poor members, bolstering the transparency function of the WTO is important to make trade agreements more relevant to trade constituencies in developing countries. While our focus is on the WTO system, our arguments also apply to reciprocal North-South trade agreements.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

3016. Reducing Poverty in Washington, D.C. and Rebuilding the Middle Class from Within

Author:
Brooke DeRenzis and Martha Ross
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Washington's future as a vibrant, inclusive city depends on its commitment to rebuilding the middle class from within. The District has experienced job growth, big increases in city revenues, and remarkable commercial and residential development over the past several years. Still, one out of every three DC residents is low-income, and many residents live in areas of concentrated poverty. More than most cities, Washington is a city of high and low incomes, with a small and declining middle class.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

3017. Reconnecting Massachusetts Gateway Cities: Lessons Learned and an Agenda for Renewal

Author:
Benjamin Forman, Rebecca Sohmer, Eric McLean-Shinaman, David Warren, John Schneider, and Mark Muro
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Could it be? Could it be that at least some of Massachusetts' long-suffering “Gateway Cities”—the state's once-humming mill and manufacturing towns—are ready to rejoin the state's economic mainstream? Yes, it could. Despite the latest blows of deindustrialization, signs of life are animating parts of the state's faded urban hubs beyond Boston.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets

3018. Back to the Future: The Need for Patient Equity in Real Estate Development Finance

Author:
Christopher B. Leinberger
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the real estate field has begun applying many of the development strategies employed by a number of iconic developers active before 1940. J.C. Nichols (Country Club Plaza in Kansas City), George Merrick (Coral Gables, Florida), the Rockefeller family (Rockefeller Center), and others have become role models, their major developments emulated in recently revived downtowns, suburban town centers, New Urbanism projects, and transit oriented developments. But while nearly all of the attention today has been on the urban design lessons of these developers and their projects, there are financing lessons they can teach us as well.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Florida

3019. How to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Now

Author:
Mary Graham and Elena Fagotto
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Support is growing in the 110th Congress for legislation to counter climate change. Yet action on any of the major cap-and-trade proposals will leave a critical policy gap. None of the proposed systems would take full effect for at least five years. Meanwhile, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and company executives are locking in future emissions as they finalize plans for new power plants, factories and cars. The Administration's latest climate action report, circulated in draft in March 2007, estimates that a 19 percent increase in U.S. emissions between 2000 and 2020 will contribute to persistent drought, coastal flooding and water shortages in many parts of the country and around the world. This policy brief proposes that Congress legislate product-by-product and factory-by-factory disclosure of greenhouse gas emissions to create immediate incentives for companies to cut those emissions. Labeling products and disclosing factory emissions would provide market benefits now by exposing inefficiencies and informing the choices of investors, business partners, employees and consumers and would give companies the information base they need to prepare for cap-and-trade regulation.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

3020. Beyond Microfinance: Getting Capital to Small and Medium Enterprises to Fuel Faster Development

Author:
David de Ferranti and Anthony J. Ody
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), typically employing between 10 and 250 workers, form the backbone of modern economies and can be crucial engines of development through their role as seedbeds of innovation. In much of the developing world, though, SMEs are under-represented, stifled by perverse regulatory climates and poor access to inputs. A critical missing ingredient is often capital.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

3021. More COPS

Author:
John J. Donohue III and Jens Ludwig
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
It would be unrealistic to expect crime to continue dropping sharply as it did in the 1990s, but that is no reason to undermine the progress brought by successful policies. With recent FBI data showing crime on the rise, it is time to reconsider the massive de-funding of one of the most successful federal anti-crime measures of the 1990s: the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of Community Policing Services (COPS) program. The program, authorized by the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, provides grants to state and local police to hire additional officers and adopt aspects of "community policing."
Topic:
Civil Society, Crime, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

3022. Incumbent Regimes and the "King's Dilemma" in the Arab World: Promise and Threat of Managed Reform

Author:
Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Incumbent regimes in the Arab world, monarchical and republican alike, have weathered the period of intense, worldwide political change that has followed the end of the Cold War without giving up much of their power. Though not completely untouched by events that have shaken the rest of the world, most Arab regimes have survived the wave of political transformation that has engulfed the rest of the world relatively intact. Many regimes have carried out reforms, but the reforms have been directed at modernizing the economy and addressing social issues rather than redistributing power in the political system. Indeed, most regimes that talk of political reform are in reality avoiding it. To be sure, there have been some political changes: For example, more political parties exist today in most Arab countries than fifteen years ago, and more countries hold elections of varying quality. Access to information and the quality of political debate have increased in many countries as well. Power, however, remains firmly where it was: in the hands of kings and presidents.
Topic:
Cold War, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

3023. Rethinking Economic Reform in Jordan: Confronting Socioeconomic Realities

Author:
Sufyan Alissa
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since 1989, Jordan has passed through several phases of economic reform aimed at stabilizing the economy and managing the transition from a state-dominated model to one that is private export led. Initiated under severe economic crisis conditions, the reform process in Jordan has been slow, selective, and uncoordinated. Thus far Jordan has succeeded in stabilizing its economy and engaging in a process of trade and financial liberalization and privatization, but it has failed to find long-lasting solutions to major social and economic challenges facing the country.
Topic:
Development and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

3024. The Challenge of Economic Reform in the Arab World: Toward More Productive Economies

Author:
Sufyan Alissa
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The issue of economic reform in the Arab world is surrounded by many key questions. How do we define meaningful economic reform and what does it entail? To what extent has such economic reform advanced in the region? What is needed to accelerate the process? Are ruling elites motivated to undertake real economic reform and are they capable of doing so? Are state institutions able to implement economic reform and handle its consequences? Is it possible to have economic transformation without political reform? Furthermore, in individual countries, what can we say about the timing of reform-has it been planned out and phased in or pushed through quickly in response to crises? Who have been the winners and losers? What has been the interplay between economic and political reform-have they proceeded independently or can we detect a direct connection? What has been the role of external rents-whether oil revenues, remittances, or bilateral aid-in the speed or slowness, the depth or shallowness, of the process?
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Arabia

3025. China's Economic Prospects 2006-2020

Author:
Sandra Polaski, Jianwu He, and Li Shantong
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China's economic growth during the past twenty-five years has been remarkable, averaging more than 9 percent a year. While there have been earlier episodes of comparable growth rates in countries such as Japan and South Korea, there is no precedent for such rapid growth in a country the size of China, whose population of 1.3 billion is thirteen times that of Japan when that nation began its rapid growth. The impact on the rest of the world of economic dynamism on this scale is already being felt. If China continues its rapid growth in the coming decades, it will take the global economy into uncharted terrain.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and South Korea

3026. Evaluating Political Reform in Yemen

Author:
Sarah Phillips
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the Republic of Yemen was created in 1990 through the unification of the northern and southern states, the Yemeni regime has very consciously framed its policies in the language of democracy, while simultaneously muzzling initiatives that might help facilitate democratic consolidation. There has been a marked increase in the level of popular political activity, but the country's power structures have proven resilient to political reform.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

3027. Pushing Toward Party Politics: Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), founded in 1991, is a relatively new political actor in Kuwait. Yet by the standards of regional Islamist movements, it is one of the most experienced in parliamentary and electoral politics. The ICM can claim some real electoral and programmatic successes, but any move beyond marginal or incremental achievements rests largely on its ability to build on the success of an ad hoc and diverse coalition of Islamist, liberal, and populist political forces. In short, if the ICM navigates difficult waters, it may be able to achieve many of its goals while demonstrating the broader potential of an Islamist electoral movement as part of a coalition pressing for liberalizing political reform. Kuwaiti political history suggests strong reasons for skepticism-the opposition has never been able to maintain a united front for long, and the Kuwaiti government has tools at its disposal to disperse, placate, and even exclude dissenters. But the opportunities beckoning the movement and other opposition political forces are stronger than they have ever been.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

3028. Roots of Radical Islam in Central Asia

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The history of the development of Islamic radicalism in Uzbekistan, and in Central Asia more generally, is a potentially contentious one. There is very little agreement either within the policy community in the United States or in Central Asia itself as to what Islamic radicalism is and who among devout Muslims should be considered as posing a threat to the secular regimes.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

3029. Has U.S. Income Inequality Really Increased?

Author:
Alan Reynolds
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
There are frequent complaints that U.S. income inequality has increased in recent decades. Estimates of rising inequality that are widely cited in the media are often based on federal income tax return data. Those data appear to show that the share of U.S. income going to the top 1 percent (those people with the highest incomes) has increased substantially since the 1970s.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

3030. A Short Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The “difference” and “system” generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models are growing steadily in popularity. The estimators are designed for panels with short time dimensions (T), and by default they generate instruments sets whose number grows quadratically in T. The dangers associated with having many instruments relative to observations are documented in the applied literature. The instruments can overfit endogenous variables, failing to expunge their endogenous components and biasing coefficient estimates. Mean while they can vitiate the Hansen J test for joint validity of those instruments, as well as the difference-in-Sargan/Hansen test for subsets of instruments. The weakness of these specification tests is a particular concern for system GMM, whose distinctive instruments are only valid under a non-trivial assumption. Judging by current practice, many researchers do not fully appreciate that popular implementations of these estimators can by default generate results that simultaneously are invalid yet appear valid. The potential for type I errors—false positives—is therefore substantial, especially after amplification by publication bias. This paper explains the risks and illustrates them with reference to two early applications of the estimators to economic growth, Forbes (2000) on income inequality and Levine, Loayza, and Beck (LLB, 2000) on financial sector development. Endogenous causation proves hard to rule out in both papers. Going forward, for results from these GMM estimators to be credible, researchers must report the instrument count and aggressively test estimates and specification test results for robustness to reductions in that count.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World

3031. Pathways Out of Poverty During an Economic Crisis: An Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia

Author:
Peter Timmer and Neil McCulloch
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

3032. What Have IMF Programs With Low-Income Countries Assumed About Aid Flows?

Author:
David Goldsbrough and Ben Elberger
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper examines the nature of aid projections in IMF programs with low-income countries. On average, IMF projections of net aid increased sharply in the first year of programs but tapered off in subsequent years. Projections were also significantly more optimistic in countries with low initial levels of aid but differed little across regions. Most notably, projections of net aid to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa following the Gleneagles Summit are significantly more pessimistic than the path implied by commitments to double aid to Africa by 2010. This pattern is strong throughout the group with only two Sub-Saharan African countries showing increases in net aid consistent with the Gleneagles commitments.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Poverty, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Africa

3033. Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficient of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China

3034. Performance-based Incentives for Health: Demand- and Supply-Side Incentives in the Nicaraguan Red de Protección Social

Author:
Ferdinando Regalía and Leslie Castro
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Nicaragua's Red de Protección Social (RPS) is one of the first conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs implemented in a low-income country. Demand-side incentives, in the form of monetary transfers, are provided to poor households on condition that their children attend school and visit preventive health care providers. The design of the program is unique among CCT programs because these demand-side incentives are complemented by supply-side incentives aimed at improving the provision of health care. Health care providers are paid on the basis of their performance against predetermined targets. Both private and nonprofit health care providers contracted by the government extend the coverage of services to previously underserved areas.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Latin America

3035. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jessica Todd, and Marie Gaarder
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In order to support poor families in the developing world to seek and use health care, a multi-pronged strategy is needed on both the supply and the demand side of health care. A demand-side program called Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) strives to reduce poverty and also increase food consumption, school attendance, and use of preventive health care. Since 1997, seven countries in Latin America have implemented and evaluated CCT programs with health and nutrition components. The core of the program is based on encouraging poor mothers to seek preventive health services and attend health education talks by providing a cash incentive for their healthy behavior (with healthy behavior representing performance). Evaluations of these programs measured outputs in the utilization of services; health knowledge, attitudes, and practice; food consumption; the supply and quality of services; as well as outcomes in vaccination rates; nutritional status; morbidity; mortality; and fertility.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Latin America

3036. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Six Years of Results from Supply-Side Programs in Haiti

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jessica Todd, and Marie Gaarder
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
USAID launched a project in 1995 to deliver basic health services in Haiti. The project began by reimbursing contracted NGOs for documented expenditures or inputs. In 1999, payment was changed to being based partly on attaining performance targets or outputs. The project also provided technical assistance to the NGOs, along with opportunities to participate in an NGO network and other cross-fertilization activities. Remarkable improvements in key health indicators have been achieved in the six years since payment for performance was phased in. Although it is difficult to isolate the effects of performance-based payment on these improved indicators from the efforts aimed at strengthening NGOs and other factors, panel regression results suggest that the new payment incentives were responsible for considerable improvements in both immunization coverage and attended deliveries. Results for prenatal and postnatal care were less significant, perhaps suggesting a strong patient behavioral element that is not under the influence of provider actions.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

3037. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: A Way to Improve Tuberculosis Detection and Treatment Completion?

Author:
Rena Eichler, Diana Weil, and Alexandra Beith
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Tuberculosis is a public health emergency in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Of the estimated 1.7 million deaths from TB, 98 percent are in the developing world, the majority being among the poor. In order to reach the MDG and the Stop TB partnership targets for 2015, TB detection rates need to double, treatment success rates must increase to more than 7075 percent, and strategies to address HIV-associated TB and multi-drug resistant TB must be aggressively expanded. DOTS, the internationally-recommended TB control strategy is the foundation of TB control efforts worldwide. A standard recording and monitoring system built on routine service-based data allows nearly all countries in the world to track progress in case detection and treatment completion through routine monitoring. This provides a good base for measuring the impact of different strategies for improving TB control outcomes.
Topic:
Development, Health, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe

3038. Do No Harm: Aid, Weak Institutions, and the Missing Middle in Africa

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The implicit assumption of the donor community is that Africa is trapped by its poverty, and that aid is necessary if Africa is to escape the trap. In this note I suggest an alternative assumption: that Africa is caught in an institutional trap, signaled and reinforced by the small share of income of its independent middle-income population. Theory and historical experience elsewhere suggest that a robust middle-income group contributes critically to the creation and sustenance of healthy institutions, particularly healthy institutions of the state. I propose that if external aid is to be helpful for institution-building in Africa's weak and fragile states, donors need to emphasize not providing more aid but minimizing the risks more aid poses for this group in Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

3039. Credit Elasticities in Less-Developed Economies: Implications for Microcredit

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Policymakers often prescribe that microfinance institutions increase interest rates to eliminate reliance on subsidies. This strategy makes sense if the poor are rate insensitive: then microlenders increase profitability (or achieve sustainability) without reducing the poor's access to credit. We test the assumption of price inelastic demand using randomized trials conducted by a consumer lender in South Africa. The demand curves are downward-sloping, and steep for price increases relative to the lender's standard rates. We also find that loan size is far more responsive to changes in loan maturity than to changes in interest rates, which is consistent with binding liquidity constraints.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

3040. Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries with a Consumer Credit Field Experiment

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Information asymmetries are important in theory but difficult to identify in practice. We estimate the presence and importance of adverse selection and moral hazard in a consumer credit market using a new field experiment methodology. We randomized 58,000 direct mail offers issued by a major South African lender along three dimensions: 1) an initial "offer interest rate" featured on a direct mail solicitation; 2) a "contract interest rate" that was revealed only after a borrower agreed to the initial offer rate; and 3) a dynamic repayment incentive that extended preferential pricing on future loans to borrowers who remained in good standing. These three randomizations, combined with complete knowledge of the Lender's information set, permit identification of specific types of private information problems. Our setup distinguishes adverse selection from moral hazard effects on repayment, and thereby generates unique evidence on the existence and magnitudes of specific credit market frictions. We find evidence of moral hazard and weaker evidence for adverse selection. A rough calibration suggests that perhaps 7% to 16% of default is due to asymmetric information problems. Asymmetric information may help explain the prevalence of credit constraints even in a market that specializes in financing high-risk borrowers at very high rates.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
South Africa

3041. Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Expanding credit access is a key ingredient of development strategies worldwide. Microfinance practitioners, policymakers, and donors have ambitious goals for expanding access, and seek efficient methods for implementing and evaluating expansion. There is less consensus on the role of consumer credit in expansion initiatives. Some microfinance institutions are moving beyond entrepreneurial credit and offering consumer loans. But many practitioners and policymakers are skeptical about “unproductive” lending. These concerns are fueled by academic work highlighting behavioral biases that may induce consumers to overborrow. We estimate the impacts of a consumer credit supply expansion using a field experiment and follow-up data collection. A South African lender relaxed its risk assessment criteria by encouraging its loan officers to approve randomly selected marginal rejected applications. We estimate the resulting impacts using new survey data on borrower behavior and well-being, and administrative data on loan repayment. We find that the marginal loans increased credit access and produced measurable benefits in the form of increased employment, reduced hunger, and reduced poverty. The marginal loans also appear to have been profitable for the lender. The results must be interpreted with caution but suggest that consumer credit expansions can be welfare-improving.
Topic:
Development, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

3042. Female Empowerment: Impact of a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines

Author:
Dean Karlan, Wesley Yin, and Nava Ashraf
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Female “empowerment” has increasingly become a policy goal, both as an end to itself and as a means to achieving other development goals. Microfinance in particular has often been argued, but not without controversy, to be a tool for empowering women. Here, using a randomized controlled trial, we examine whether access to an individually-held commitment savings product leads to an increase in female decision-making power within the household. We find positive impacts, particularly for women who have below median decision-making power in the baseline, and we find this leads to a shift towards female-oriented durables goods purchased in the household.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

3043. Why Are There So Few Black-Owned Firms in Africa? Preliminary Results from Enterprise Survey Data

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran and Manju Kedia Shah
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Much of the growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade has come from extractive industries, rather than from private, entrepreneurial activity. Furthermore, non-extractive activity in the private sector is often dominated by firms owned by ethnic minorities. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the formal private sector in five countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular emphasis on Black African-owned (indigenous) firms. We find that indigenous firms start smaller and grow more slowly; however their rate of growth is positively influenced by whether the owner-entrepreneur has a university degree. We do not find overwhelming evidence that credit is the binding constraint but we do find that indigenous firms get less access to trade credit than firms owned by minority entrepreneurs. Finally, we discuss policy solutions that might enable a larger number of indigenous entrepreneurs to enter and survive in a vibrant, multi-ethnic private sector.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

3044. Georgia: Sliding towards Authoritarianism?

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The government's repressive and disproportionate response to peaceful protests in November 2007 shocked Western capitals, which had viewed Georgia as a beacon of democracy in a region of illiberal regimes. Since the Rose Revolution, however, President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration has become increasingly intolerant of dissent as it has sought to reform inefficient post-Soviet institutions, stimulate a deeply dysfunctional economy, regain the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and deal with its meddling Russian neighbour. In an attempt to restore his democratic credentials, Saakashvili has called an early presidential election for 5 January 2008, which he is expected to win, but a free and fair election will not be enough to repair the damage. The West should press the government to abandon its increasingly authoritarian behaviour, engage in a genuine dialogue with political opponents and make the ongoing reform process transparent and accountable.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Corruption, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

3045. Inside Gaza: The Challenge of Clans and Families

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Throughout Gaza's history, its powerful clans and families have played a part whose importance has fluctuated with the nature of central authority but never disappeared. As the Palestinian Authority (PA) gradually collapsed under the weight of almost a decade of renewed confrontation with Israel, they, along with political movements and militias, filled the void. Today they are one of the most significant obstacles Hamas faces in trying to consolidate its authority and reinstate stability in the territory it seized control of in June 2007. Although they probably lack the unity or motivation to become a consistent and effective opposition, either on their own or in alliance with Fatah, they could become more effective should popular dissatisfaction with the situation in Gaza grow. There are some, as yet inconclusive, indications that Hamas understands this and is moderating its approach in an attempt to reach an accommodation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Haiti

3046. Peacebuilding in Haiti: Including Haitians from Abroad

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The UN mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) will not stay forever and, in any case, cannot be made responsible for solving Haiti's manifold and deep-seated problems. The absence of adequate professional staff, sufficient financial resources and efficient management at all levels of government has delayed structural reforms and economic and social programs. The country needs institutional strengthening prior to its transition from President René Préval to his successor after the elections in 2011 – also the likely outside limit for MINUSTAH's mandate. Otherwise, political polarisation along traditional cleavages will reappear, as will the risk of conflict. Training civil servants and increasing their salaries are important but insufficient to produce the advances Haitians are demanding. A serious and sustained initiative to include three million Haitians living abroad could overcome historic nationalistic mistrust of outsiders, bring a missing middle class within reach and help Haiti escape its “fragile state” status.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Haiti

3047. Kosovo Countdown: A Blueprint for Transition

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's transition to the status of conditional, or supervised, independence has been greatly complicated by Russia's firm support of Serbia's refusal to accept that it has lost its one-time province. Recognition of conditional independence has broad international, and certainly European Union (EU) and American, support. Under threat of Moscow's veto, the Security Council will not revoke its Resolution 1244 of 1999 that acknowledged Serbian sovereignty while setting up the UN Mission (UNMIK) to prepare Kosovo for self-government pending a political settlement on its future status. Nor will the Council be allowed to approve the plan for a conditionally independent Kosovo devised by the Secretary-General's special representative, Martti Ahtisaari, earlier this year and authorise the EU-led missions meant to implement that plan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Kosovo, Moscow, and Serbia

3048. Nigeria: Ending Unrest in the Niger Delta

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Niger Delta is again at risk of sliding into chaos. The 29 May 2007 inauguration of new federal and state governments offered an opportunity to resolve longstanding conflicts afflicting the oil-rich, deeply impoverished region. Six months later, the opportunity is unravelling amid new violence and criminality. Decisive action is necessary to stop militant violence and criminal hostage-taking, initiate quick-impact development projects that can build public confidence in President Umaru Yar'Adua's administration and tackle constitutional and legal issues that have fuelled unrest in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3049. ECUADOR: OVERCOMING INSTABILITY?

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ecuador has been Latin America's most unstable democracy for a decade. Starting with the ousting of President Abdalá Bucaram by Congress and street protests in 1997, weak, temporary governments have been the rule. In 2000, Jamil Mahuad was toppled by a civilian-military coup, and in 2005, protests brought down Lucio Gutiérrez, who had helped oust Mahuad. The government of Rafael Correa of the Alianza País(AP) movement, who took office in January and enjoys record-high approval ratings, is applying "shock therapy" to overwhelm the discredited opposition and pave the way for a constituent assembly (CA) intended to produce "profound, radical and fast change". This triggered one of the sharpest clashes between branches of government since the return to democracy in 1979, including the Electoral Court's firing of 57 opposition members of Congress in March, accompanied by street violence. To restore stability to the troubled country, Correa will need to pay more attention to upholding the rule of law, ensuring a level CA playing field and building consensus for fundamental reforms.
Topic:
Development and Politics
Political Geography:
South America

3050. CONSOLIDATING STABILITY IN HAITI

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Haiti's security and stability remain fragile. President René Préval has endorsed national policies for security, police, justice and prison reform, but a weak state and decades, if not centuries, of institutional abandonment, make implementation slow, difficult and uneven. His first real success has been the dismantling of the toughest gangs in Port-au-Prince, but for this to be sustainable a community-friendly Haitian National Police (HNP) needs to be built under the security umbrella provided by the UN peacekeepers (MINUSTAH), infrastructure and economic opportunity must appear in the capital's poor neighbourhoods, and comparable recovery and reconstruction have to be extended across the country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Haiti

3051. Nigeria: Failed Elections, Failing State?

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's democracy is in crisis. The April 2007 elections were supposed to move the country to a higher rung on the democratisation ladder, create a more conducive environment to resolve its many internal conflicts and strengthen its credentials as a leading peacemaker, but instead generated serious new problems that may be pushing it further towards the status of a failed state. The declared winner, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, assumed the presidency on 29 May with less legitimacy than any previously elected president and so with less capacity to moderate and resolve its violent domestic conflicts. He must act urgently to heal wounds, redress electoral injustice and punish the most grievous voting frauds, including those by officials of the agencies directly involved in administering the elections. To salvage his government's legitimacy, he needs to pursue policies of inclusiveness and restraint in relation to the opposition, accept the decisions of the tribunals (including the Supreme Court if need be) reviewing the petitions of defeated candidates, and embark on a vigorous electoral reform program.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

3052. Central Asia's Energy Risks

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Oil and gas are proving as much a burden as a benefit to Central Asia. The three oil and gas producers in the region – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are showing signs of the “resource curse” under which energy rich nations fail to thrive or develop distorted, unstable economies. Geography and their history in the Soviet Union have bound them to Russia, through which most of their energy exports must be transported. Moscow is proving to be an unreliable partner for foreign consumers as it has been willing to cut off pipelines to apply commercial or political pressure. Low investment, corruption and gross mismanagement in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may mean that their supplies run low before they can diversify their links to markets or their economies. Central Asia is likely to see energy create instability within the region; the chances are low that it will be a factor in improving European energy security any time soon.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Moscow, and Turkmenistan

3053. Indonesia: Decentralisation and Local Power Struggles in Maluku

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
South East Maluku (Maluku Tenggara, commonly abbreviated Malra), a district in a remote corner of the Indonesian archipelago, is about to be divided in two, and many residents are worried about the possibility of conflict. Attention by provincial and national officials to latent communal tensions, equitable distribution of development funds and even-handed prosecution of corruption, as well as dissemination by neutral parties of information about the division, would help ensure that all remains peaceful.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

3054. Nepal's Maoists: Purists or Pragmatists?

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's Maoists have changed their strategy and tactics but not yet their goals. In 1996 they launched a “people's war” to establish a communist republic but ten years later ended it by accepting multiparty democracy; their armed struggle targeted the parliamentary system but they are now working alongside their former enemies, the mainstream parties, in an interim legislature and coalition government. Their commitment to pluralistic politics and society is far from definitive, and their future course will depend on both internal and external factors. While they have signed up to a peaceful, multiparty transition, they continue to hone alternative plans for more revolutionary change.
Topic:
Communism, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

3055. Kosovo: No Good Alternatives to the Ahtisaari Plan

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The debate on Kosovo's future status has reached a crucial point. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has begun to consider elements of a draft resolution to determine the entity's future, which could be put to a vote in the coming weeks. The best way of ensuring regional peace and stability and lifting Kosovo out of an eight-year-long limbo, with a tired, temporary UN administration and an undeveloped, low-growth economy, is a resolution based squarely on the plan of UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari. This would supersede UNSC Resolution 1244 (1999), define Kosovo's internal settlement and minority-protection mechanisms, mandate a new international presence and allow for supervised independence.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

3056. Northern Uganda: Seizing the Opportunity for Peace

Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With peace negotiations due to restart in the southern Sudanese town of Juba on 26 April, the ten-month-old peace process between the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and the Ugandan government still has a chance of ending one of Africa's longest, most brutal conflicts. The present process is more structured and inclusive than previous efforts to end the twenty-year-old conflict, benefits from greater – if still inadequate – external involvement, and has made some significant gains, notably removing most LRA fighters from northern Uganda. And the implementation of the agreement to end Sudan's north-south civil war has reduced both the LRA's and the Ugandan army's room for manoeuvre.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Sudan

3057. Zimbabwe: An End to the Stalemate?

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After years of political deadlock and continued economic and humanitarian decline, a realistic chance has at last begun to appear in the past few months to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis, by retirement of President Robert Mugabe, a power-sharing transitional government, a new constitution and elections. Both factions of the divided Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) opposition and powerful elements of the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party support the concept in outline. Although many of his party's leaders are pressing him to retire in twelve months, when his term expires, Mugabe seeks to extend his tenure to 2010 by a constitutional amendment to harmonise presidential and legislative elections in that year. Increased pressure and intervention including from the regional organisation, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the West, in the run-up to the mid-year parliamentary session, could lead to a new political order, but concessions to ZANU-PF should only be made in exchange for true restoration of democracy.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

3058. After Mecca: Engaging Hamas

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It has been a year since Hamas formed its government – and what a dismal year it has been. The Islamists thought they could govern without paying an ideological price, Fatah that it could swiftly push them aside and regain power. By imposing sanctions and boycotting the government, the Quartet (U.S., European Union (EU), Russia and UN) and Israel hoped to force Hamas to change or persuade the Palestinians to oust it. Washington promised security and economic aid to encourage Fatah to confront Hamas and help defeat it. The illusions have brought only grief. The 8 February 2007 Saudi-brokered Mecca Agreement between the Palestinian rivals offers the chance of a fresh start: for Hamas and Fatah to restore law and order and rein in militias; for Israelis and Palestinians to establish a comprehensive ceasefire and start a credible peace process; and for the Quartet (or at least those of its members inclined to do so) to adopt a more pragmatic attitude that judges a government of national unity by deeds, not rhetoric. The adjustment will not be comfortable for anyone. But the alternative is much worse.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Washington, Middle East, and Israel

3059. Venezuela: Hugo Chá¡vez's Revolution

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After eight years in power, President Hugo Chávez won an overwhelming re-election in December 2006. Flush with oil revenues, bolstered by high approval ratings and at the start of a six-year term, he expresses confidence about advancing what he calls his Bolivarian Revolution, named after Simón Bolívar, the country's independence hero, and installing his still only vaguely defined “Socialism of the 21st Century”. There are concerns in Venezuela and much of the hemisphere, however, that to do so the ex-colonel and one-time coup leader may be willing to sacrifice democratic principles. He is not yet a dictator and for the most part has not tried to act in a dictatorial manner, but the trend toward autocracy is strong. If he continues to build personal power at the expense of other institutions and militarise much of the government and political life, there will be serious risks for internal conflict, especially if the oil boom that cushions the economy falters.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America and Tanzania

3060. Correlates of Public Support for Terrorism in the Muslim World

Author:
Ethan Beuno de Mesquita
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This report examines the correlates of individual-level support for terrorism in fourteen Muslim countries. I identify a variety of factors that are correlated with support for terrorism. These factors can be divided into a several categories: attitudes toward Islam, attitudes toward the United States, attitudes toward politics and economics in the home countries, and demographic factors.
Topic:
Development, Peace Studies, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

3061. Employment Generation and Economic Development in Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

Author:
Merriam Mashatt and Johanna Mendelson-Forman
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
It seems logical that improving the lives of those who have suffered from conflict would include a program to generate economic well-being in the immediate period after hostilities subside. Yet livelihood creation, the root of potential economic success and security, has often become a secondary objective in the transformation from war to peace. An obvious reason for this relegation to a lower priority is that security, humanitarian needs, and restoring the rule of law often overtake the economic development priorities of any peace-building mission. Even in Iraq, the largest stabilization and reconstruction effort undertaken by the U.S. government, restoring livelihoods and getting people back to work remains an unresolved challenge and an unmet agenda. Of the nearly $20 billion of U.S.-appropriated funds to reconstruct Iraq, only $805 million was directed toward jump-starting the private sector. Although employment generation is not a new subject in “postwar” literature, lessons about implementation vary from one country to the next. Current knowledge about “golden hour” job creation, which is creating jobs within one year of the cessation of hostilities, is culled more from specific pilot studies than from a coherent overview of what tools exist and how they can be applied. This report advances current research by providing such an overview for U.S. government policymakers. It seeks to help the U.S. government work through the lessons learned about the processes needed to generate employment. Moreover, it explores the U.S. government strategy toward golden hour job creation, the existing civilian and military tools, and how these tools can be better incorporated into larger transformation efforts. The report also notes the limitations of U.S. civilian capacity in a nonpermissive environment.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States

3062. Developing Media in Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

Author:
Emily Hsu and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In war-torn societies, the development of independent, pluralistic, and sustainable media is critical to fostering long-term peace and stability. Post-conflict civilian populations are particularly vulnerable to manipulation by mass media as tensions run high and the possibility of violent relapse remains strong. Many civilians harbor deep skepticism and mistrust of the media, being accustomed to platforms that are controlled either by the state or by political groups looking to further their political agendas. An effective media strategy can mitigate postwar tensions by elevating moderate voices and dampening extremist ones. It can create peaceful channels through which differences can be resolved without resort to violence. The creation of a robust media culture will also allow citizens to begin holding their government accountable for its actions and ensuring its commitment to democracy. Efforts to develop local media institutions should be undertaken separately from attempts to develop strategic communications. In an increasing number of non-permissive envi¬ronments (i.e., environments where security is not fully established), the distinction between these two endeavors is blurred because of a mistaken assumption among some players that both activities share the same purpose and goal. A poorly developed media strategy can be detrimental in a war-ravaged country still rife with violence. A hastily conceived plan may reinforce divisions between warring parties or create a weak media sector that is vulnerable to exploitation by warlords, political patrons, and spoilers. Media development efforts also fail when the public does not trust them to establish a credible source of information. Ideally, given the media's capacity to shape war-torn countries, interveners should apply a coherent strategy in the pursuit of media development. Unfortunately, no such strategy yet exists and thus interveners have little guidance as to what tools and methods work best in the development of media institutions. In fact, media development is still conducted on an ad hoc basis from conflict to conflict. This report seeks to fill this strategic gap. More particularly, it recommends that interveners take the following series of steps as they generate a strategy for media development in post-conflict zones.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Education, and War

3063. Personal Transformations: Moving from Violence to Peace

Author:
Renee Garfinkel
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Just as people become religious extremists, some of them abandon extremism and embrace peace. For some this change is a spiritual transformation, similar to religious conversion. Under certain circumstances stress, crisis, and trauma appear to play an important role in the process of change. Geographic relocation may be important for some. Migration involves novelty, insecurity, and instability, conditions that enhance vulnerability and, perhaps, openness to change. The transformation experienced by religious extremists involves a reorientation in outlook and direction but does not necessarily imply an alteration in basic personality structure. A key factor in the transition is personal relationships. Change often hinges on a relationship with a mentor or friend who supports and affirms peaceful behavior.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Peace Studies, and Religion

3064. Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq

Author:
Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) are small civilian-military units that assist provincial and local governments in Iraq to govern effectively and deliver essential services. In January 2007 President Bush announced that the United States would double the number of PRTs as part of his plan for a “New Way Forward.” Ten new PRTs will be embedded with Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs) in Baghdad, Anbar, and Babil. The new PRTs will differ significantly from the ten original PRTs set up in Iraq in November 2005. Led by the State Department, most of the original PRTs are located on U.S. military bases and rely on the military for security and logistical support. Both types of PRTs in Iraq differ in staffing and organization from PRTs in Afghanistan. Start-up of the PRT program in Iraq has been troubled by interagency differences over funding, staffing, and administrative support and by the overriding challenge of providing security. Embedding the new PRTs with BCTs should help overcome many of these problems. Despite the problems, PRTs provide a U.S. civilian presence in areas that would not be served otherwise. Participants in PRTs believe they are having a positive effect.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

3065. "The Whole World Is In Uproar": Discourses of Fear, Instability, and Global Change in West German Media, 1977-1980

Author:
Maria Stehle
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
German Politics and Society
Institution:
German Politics and Society Journal
Abstract:
After presenting a brief summary of the events leading up to the German Autumn, this article offers a close analysis of media responses in major German newspapers and magazines in the months following these violent and confusing political developments. It compares these responses to reports in January 1980, where the events of the late 1970s serve as a catalyst for fears of global change. Media articulate these fears about the stability and identity of the West German nation state in increasingly vague and generalized terms and relate them to a global situation that is “out of control.” The discussions in this article suggest that these expressed fears reveal tensions, interruptions, and gaps in the conservative fantasy of the secure and prosperous Western nation state.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Germany

3066. The Future of Palestinian Politics

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi, Wafa' Abdel Rahman, and Owen Kirby
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Democratic development in the Palestinian Authority (PA) is at the top of the Bush administration's priorities. While the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections of January 2006 were democratic, democratic elections by themselves do not constitute a democratic system. The current situation in the West Bank and Gaza cannot be called democratic by international norms. Respect for the rule of law and human rights and observation of individual rights and freedoms do not currently prevail in the PA.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

3067. The Role of Finance in Combating National Security Threats

Author:
Robert Kimmitt
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
What are the relative constraints of a multilateral approach versus a bilateral approach to the use of financial tools against illicit activity? Anytime we see a threat to the country through the financial system, we are going to take action immediately using the domestic authorities we have. We try to be careful, however, to make sure that those are carefully targeted to conduct and are not extra territorial. That provides a good basis for entering into discussion with friends and allies throughout the world, both on a bilateral basis with others and then on a multilateral basis.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East

3068. PolicyWatch #1241: Special Forum Report: The Future of Syria: Challenges and Prospects

Author:
Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 30, 2007, Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Professor Rubin, a visiting fellow at the Institute, is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), and author of the just-released book The Truth about Syria (Palgrave). Mr. Kattouf, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates, is president and CEO of AMIDEAST, a nonprofit group dedicated to enhancing educational links between the United States and the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

3069. Turkey's Economic Future and the AKP

Author:
Meral Varis Kiefer
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 30, 2007, the Turkish stock market slumped and the value of the lira dropped following a massive demonstration in Istanbul against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, coupled with a statement by the military voicing support for secularism. Previously, the comparatively healthy Turkish economy had boosted the chances that the AKP, rooted in the country's Islamist movement, would achieve further electoral victories this year. On April 24, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan named Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as his party's candidate for president -- a legislatively elected post. In the April 27 parliamentary session, however, the secular opposition boycotted the vote, and the AKP failed to muster the required two-thirds majority. The Turkish constitutional court subsequently annulled the vote, and the status of the presidential election is now uncertain. In the meantime, the parliament has moved legislative elections up from November to July 22.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3070. Brazilian Counterterrorism Efforts: Legislative Progress, But Little Action on the Ground

Author:
David Jacobson and Matther Levitt
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In March, Brazilian authorities drafted a new antiterrorism law instituting stiff penalties for a variety of violent acts committed by both individuals and organizations. The new legislation, expected to pass Brazil's congress in a modified form, will likely be used to target criminal gangs from Brazil's indigent favela neighborhoods, not Middle Eastern terrorist groups operating in the Argentina-Brazil-Paraguay Tri-Border Area (TBA). Brazil denies that illegal terrorist activities are being conducted in the TBA, and it does not regard groups like Hizballah or Hamas as terrorist organizations. Much of the legal foundation needed to successfully combat international terrorism is already in place in Brazil, but the government has not demonstrated the will to confront the problem.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

3071. Iraqi Reconciliation: Prospects for Peace at Home and Progress with Neighbors

Author:
David Satterfield
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 27, 2007, Ambassador David Satterfield addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Satterfield's public service career has included tours as ambassador to Lebanon as well as key Middle East affairs positions with both the State Department and the National Security Council. Formerly deputy chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, he now coordinates Iraq policy at the State Department, serving as a senior advisor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Lebanon

3072. The Riyadh Arab Summit: Multiple Issues and High Expectations

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 28, the Arab League will convene the annual summit of its twenty-two member states in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Despite a record of disunity and inconclusiveness, this annual meeting of Arab leaders remains the subject of intense interest in the region. Rising Sunni-Shiite tensions, talk of a peace opening with Israel, and developments in Iraq, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and Lebanon have generated more attention for this year's summit than usual.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq, Palestine, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Riyadh

3073. Assessing the New Palestinian Unity Government: A Step Forward or Back?

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 17, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the formation of a Hamas-Fatah national unity government by an 83–3 margin. This culminated a process that began in early February with the Mecca accord facilitated by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah. Many governments have withheld comment since that accord. One reason for their relative silence is reluctance to criticize a project associated with King Abdullah, who is emerging as a leading force in the Arab world and a linchpin of U.S. efforts to isolate Iran. Another is bated hope that the new government guidelines will be a marked improvement over those of the current Hamas government. Since Hamas's victory in January 2006 parliamentary elections, the focus has been on three principles proposed by the Quartet (the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the UN): (1) recognition of Israel, (2) disavowal of violence, and (3) adherence to past written commitments.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

3074. Follow the Money: Challenges and Opportunities in the Campaign to Combat Terrorism Financing

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The U.S. government's much-discussed but little-understood effort to combat terrorism financing faces both challenges and opportunities. Terrorist groups continue to evolve, proactively working to evade existing sanctions and minimize the impact of future ones. Meanwhile, interagency efforts are being called upon to meet some of the most pressing national security threats through targeted financial measures.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

3075. Meeting with Iraq's Neighbors: A Confidence-Building Measure, or Much More?

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Does this week's surprise U.S. declaration of a new international conference on Iraq, scheduled for March 10, represent a major shift in U.S. policy or just a minor shuffle? Why is it happening now? And will it have any more of an impact than other recent international meetings on Iraq?
Topic:
Development and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

3076. Next Steps in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli-Palestinian political landscape has been rather bleak over the last several years. Between 2000-2004, the second intifada brought almost unremitting terror and violence. Despite Israel's pullout from Gaza in the summer of 2005, the parliamentary victory of the rejectionist Hamas party in January 2006 contributed to this downward trend.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

3077. Palestinian Public Opinion a Year after Hamas\'s Victory

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
One year after Hamas\'s sweeping electoral victory, Palestinian politics is not only locked in a dysfunctional stalemate, but also marred by increasingly deadly factional violence in Gaza. Since a roadside bomb exploded on January 25—targeting a vehicle carrying members of Hamas\'s Executive Force—more than thirty-two people have been killed, seventy-five injured, and dozens kidnapped in the deadliest wave of fighting between Hamas and Fatah to date. Despite a truce that was supposed to have gone into effect this morning, fighting persists in Gaza.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:
Gaza

3078. Are U.S. Military Academies Preparing Graduates for Today's Wars?

Author:
Andrew Exum
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For the past five years, U.S. Army and Marine Corps officers have been operating in highly complex combat environments in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Uniformed decisionmakers realized early on that these wars required a wide array of skill sets and areas of expertise beyond those traditionally taught to junior officers. Army chief of staff Gen. Peter Schoomaker has stressed the need for a new kind of Army leader skilled in governance, statesmanship, and diplomacy and able to understand and work within different cultural contexts. The question, then, is to what extent the education given to future ground component officers at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and the U.S. Naval Academy at Annapolis is working to produce such leaders. Specifically, to what extent are the traditional engineering-based curricula at the nations service academies producing leaders with the requisite language and cultural skills necessary to be effective officers on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan?
Topic:
Development, Education, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

3079. Lebanon Goes to Paris III: High Stakes in France and Beirut

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 25, Lebanon will participate in Paris III, the third international donor conference for Lebanon convened by French president Jacques Chirac since February 2001. The top agenda items are grants and soft loans for Lebanon and the economic reform plan of Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora. For Siniora and his "March 14" ruling coalition, the success of the conference -- i.e., international commitments to provide billions to Lebanon -- is exceedingly important, as the government is coming under increasing pressure from the Hizballah-led opposition. Indeed, this week, the opposition upped the ante in its continuing effort to topple the Siniora government, closing key Lebanese arteries, including the highways into Beirut and the airport road. If Paris III is broadly perceived as "successful," it will strengthen Siniora and demonstrate that the March 14 coalition can govern and advance key Lebanese interests without Hizballah participation in government. Should international donors not prove particularly generous, the momentum will shift toward the opposition.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East and France

3080. Iran Feels the Heat: International Pressure Emboldens Tehran's Domestic Critics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As international pressure on the Iranian government toughens, the Iranian regime is facing more fragmentation at home. In an unprecedented action against a sitting president, 150 of the 290 members of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) signed a letter blaming President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad for raging inflation and high unemployment, and criticizing his travel to Latin America at a time when he has not sent the Majlis a draft budget for the fiscal year that starts March 21. Under Iranian law, this letter constitutes the first step required if the Majlis wants to remove the president from office.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Latin America

3081. Housing Privatization and Household Wealth in Transition

Author:
Ruslan Yemtsov
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
All countries in transition experienced increases in inequality. They have also undertaken massive privatization of key asset housing, often on give-away terms. Are these two phenomena related? Has transfer of ownership rights to residents slowed down the inequality increases or it pushed it up? Surprisingly little is known in this area. This paper attempts to provide empirical evidence to start answering these questions. It shows how housing privatization affected the distribution of personal wealth and inequality in current consumption based on recent representative household surveys from three transition countries: Poland, Russia and Serbia. Survey data are compared with figures derived from national accounts and housing statistics. Contrary to common belief and some earlier evidence of strong equalizing effect of housing distribution in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, the paper finds that the contribution of housing to the overall inequality levels is not strong, and is not universally progressive. There is also a significant variation across countries. In Russia and Serbia progressive. There is also a significant variation across countries. In Russia and Serbia features of privatization programmes resulted in better off households capturing more valuable housing assets on extremely beneficial terms, while in Poland privatization and housing reform led to more equitable outcomes. When owner occupied housing rents and durables are properly accounted for, the effects of housing ownership on inequality in current consumption are mildly progressive in Russia and Poland and regressive in Serbia. The paper argues that the information collected by regular household surveys provides only a starting point to study housing wealth distribution, and there are a number of gaps which should be addressed through improved data collection.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Poland, and Serbia

3082. Global Inequality: Recent Evidence and Trends

Author:
Vicar Valencia, William E. Griffiths, D.S. Prasada Rao, and Duangkamon Chotikapanich
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the nature and extent of global and regional income distribution and inequality using the most recent country level data on income distribution drawn from World Bank and UNU-WIDER studies for the period 1993–2000. The methodology used is a recently developed technique to fit flexible income distributions to limited aggregated data. Empirical results show a very high degree of global inequality, but with some evidence of inequality decreasing between the two years.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Globalization

3083. How to Capture Non-Western Forms of Governance: In Favour of an Equivalence Functionalist Observation of Governance in Areas of Limited Statehood

Author:
Draude Anke
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
This article problematises the idea of the Western concept of governance being applied to areas outside the OECD world. The aim of this article is to develop a research approach which is appropriate for these areas. To this end the article first of all casts light on Eurocentric premises of the concept of governance. It deals with the central dichotomy between state and private actors. The omnipresence of this differentiation is then explained with the help of Foucault's, Luhmann's and Derrida's (de-)constructivist theories. Assuming that Eurocentrism is inevitable, but that it has a varying degree of influence on the observer, the author then outlines an equivalence functionalist approach to governance research, which poses questions about the nature of a task performed, about the “way” in which it is performed and by “whom”. In this way, European dichotomies with regard to actors and modes of action in governance can be avoided.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, International Cooperation, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

3084. Der Governance-Raum als Analysefaktor

Author:
Matthias Kötter
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
The paper, composed for the Research Center (SFB) 700 „Governance in Areas of Limited Statehood: New Modes of Governance?” shall develop standards for the comparison of governance under different socio-cultural and historical settings. First, the governance concept is narrowed down to empirically determinable factors such as the governance output, the factual actors and their modes of production and coordination. The lack of normativity deriving from this practice shall be overcome by adding the concept of „governance space” to the proposed mapping. The governance space covers all those circumstances that are characteristic for governance in a society at a certain point of time. Thus, the concept of governance gains high potential for comparative governance analysis without having to let go normative standards. The research programme of SFB 700 already tends to this solution when it explicitly analyzes „governance in areas of limited statehood” and not only „under the circumstances of limited statehood“.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, International Cooperation, Third World, and Governance

3085. Governance, Normativität und begrenzte Staatlichkeit

Author:
Bernd Ladwig, Tamara Jugov, and Cord Schmelzle
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
This article views “governance” as a special perspective on collective binding decision-making among a plurality of actors. The surplus value of this concept (as debated in the German scientific community) consists in accentuating the contingency of its modes and actors. We argue that “governance” is conceptually normative in a weak sense. Governance is a “thick term” referring to rule-guided distribution of public goods in contrast to public bads. It must guarantee security of expectations regarding basic goods for a defined entirety of addressees. Transferring this concept to areas of limited statehood poses two problems: Firstly, those are-as lack an authority that is ultimately responsible for including all persons concerned in the benefits of governance. Secondly, in divided societies it is contested who is part of the community of addressees. This causes normative problems and dilemmas of collective action.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Third World, and Governance

3086. Transnational Public-Private Partnerships in International Relations

Author:
Marco Schäferhoff, Sabine Campe, and Christopher Kaan
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
Transnational public-private partnerships have become a popular theme in International Relations (IR) research. Such partnerships constitute a hybrid type of governance, in which non-state actors co-govern along with state actors for the provision of public goods, and thereby adopt governance functions that have formerly been the sole authority of sovereign states. Their recent proliferation is an expression of the contemporary reconfiguration of authority in world politics that poses essential questions on the effectiveness and the legitimacy of global governance. Significant issues are at stake concerning whether transnational public-private partnerships can in fact deliver public goods in an effective and legitimate way. This article surveys the literature with regard to three central issues: It addresses the questions why transnational public-private partnerships emerge, under which conditions they are effective, and under which conditions they are legitimate governance instruments. The article demonstrates that, at present, research on transnational public-private partnerships is theoretically under-informed and suffers from poor research designs. As is pointed out in the course of the article, future research on transnational public-private partnerships could benefit from well-known IR theories on international institutions, from compliance theories in particular. Applying these IR theories to partnerships opens up the possibility for the systematic comparative research that is necessary to obtain conclusive knowledge about transnational public-private partnerships.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, International Organization, Third World, and Governance

3087. PolicyWatch #1319: Aid to the Palestinians: The Role of Oil-Rich Arab States

Author:
Simon Henderson, David Makovsky, and Michael Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 17, a donor conference will convene in Paris with the goal of bolstering Palestinian governance in the West Bank -- the first such meeting since the 2006 Stockholm conference. Current Middle East envoy Tony Blair has expressed optimism that the international community will support President Mahmoud Abbas and technocratic prime minister Salam Fayad. A sum of $5.6 billion is needed for the 2008-2010 period, and with the price of oil close to $100 per barrel, that target could be reached easily with contributions from the Gulf. But how much are the Gulf Arab states actually prepared to contribute to an issue that would seem to rank as one of their great political priorities?
Topic:
Development and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

3088. PolicyWatch #1277: Better Late than Never: Keeping USAID Funds out of Terrorist Hands

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Foreign aid is an important and effective tool for buttressing allies, alleviating poverty and suffering, supporting key foreign policy objectives, and promoting the image and ideals of the United States abroad. Indeed, as its own website attests, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) "plays a vital role in promoting U.S. national security, foreign policy, and the War on Terrorism." Toward these goals -- and considering that several agency-approved aid recipients have been linked to terrorist groups in recent years -- USAID's proposed new partner-vetting system (PVS) is a welcome and overdue development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

3089. Angolan Progress and Prospects: A Conference on Development and Reconstruction

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
On May 9, 2007, a conference and celebration were held honoring Angola Day. The organizers and supporters were the Africa Program of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (WWICS), the Angolan Embassy, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.S.-Angola Chamber of Commerce, with further sponsorship by an array of Angolan and international companies. The conference sought to share progress, challenges and opportunities facing Angola, now in its fifth year of peace following a brutal 27-year civil war. The celebratory nature of the event was not limited to the reception and cultural entertainment which took place at the WWICS that day, but also reflected the social, economic and political progress in Angola over these five years. For example, panelists in the conference shared information regarding an ambitious rehabilitation program of social infrastructure, steady economic growth, stabilizing political institutions and improved security conditions. They further cited specific opportunities for partnership with the United States, through international cooperation, private investment and increased trade. Scheduled to hold their first legislative and presidential elections since the end of the civil war in 2002, Angola is poised to become “a model of post-conflict democratic transition, and has the resources—human capital and natural endowments—to be a regional and global leader in world affairs” (Jendayi Frazer, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Angola, and Khartoum

3090. Digital Poverty: Concept and Measurement, with an Application to Peru

Author:
Roxana Barrantes Cáceres
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper discusses the notions of demand, poverty, information needs, and information and communication technologies (ICTs) to offer a concept of digital poverty, which may be useful to estimate the digital poverty level in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper is composed of two sections. The first section contains a conceptual discussion of digital poverty, its types and possible levels, and the underlying economic foundations. ICTs are defined based on their use and the conditions for such use. Digital poverty is therefore defined as a lack of ICTs and might be a feature of any population segment, whether or not economically poor. The second section of this paper is an empirical attempt to validate the classification, using data from a household survey (ENAHO) carried out in Peru. The limitations in measuring digital poverty at the household level instead of at the individual level are acknowledged. Lastly, the conclusions reached, possible implications for public policy, and the avenues open for further research are presented.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Caribbean, and Peru

3091. Development Ethics: A Road to Peace

Author:
Adela Cortina
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Peace has to be sought through development, but not through just any form of development. From the practice of working for development an ethical reflection has gradually come about, which stresses the ethical aspects of development, without which there is no human development strictly speaking. The paper puts forward a model of development ethics which has two roots: the development ethics of Denis Goulet, who was a pioneer in this field, and the author's conception of applied ethics, which stems from a Kantian tradition and an Aristotelian tradition. The paper attempts to reveal the ethical elements of development and their significance for human development.
Topic:
Development and Peace Studies

3092. Six Months Since 1706: The International Failure to Protect Darfur

Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
Six months ago, at the end of August 2006, the United Nations (UN) Security Council passed a critical resolution, authorizing a robust UN peacekeeping force for Darfur, western Sudan. This act was the result of years of advocacy and international political wrangling, against the backdrop of escalating violence in Darfur. The resolution expressed the will and intent of the international community to send a 22,000-strong UN force to Darfur, to supplement the African Union (AU) mission and to provide protection to civilians and humanitarian operations on the ground.
Topic:
Development, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

3093. Investing in China's Rural Infrastructure and Environment

Author:
Scott Rozelle
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The purpose of this executive summary is to provide a concise statement about what we have learned about investment into China's rural environment. The overall purpose is to help the Bank understand what is happening in rural China, what farmer's are thinking about the current trends and what they are hoping will happen in the future (if they had a say). One of the most important questions is answer what should the role of the state be.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3094. China's March on the 21st Century

Author:
Kurt M. Campbell and Willow Darsie
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
After a protracted period of uncertainty concerning the nature of the foreign policy challenges that are likely to confront the nation over the course of first half of the 21st century, twin challenges are now coming into sharper relief. For the next generation or more, Americans will be confronted by two overriding (and possibly overwhelming) challenges in the conduct of American foreign policy: how to more effectively wage a long, twilight struggle against violent Islamic fundamentalists, and at the same time cope with the almost certain rise to great power status of China.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia

3095. Minds on Fire: Enhancing India's Knowledge Workforce

Author:
Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
India's economy continues to grow at a remarkable pace. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) has been expanding an average of nearly 8 percent per year since 2002. In the fiscal year ending March 2007, India's economy grew at 9.4 percent. This performance means that the Indian economy met its own national five-year growth goal for the first time since the first five-year plan was issued by the government in 1950. At its current rate of growth, India will become a trillion-dollar economy by 2007–2008 and will overtake South Korea to become Asia's third-largest economy, after China and Japan.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Asia, and South Korea

3096. Policy Options Paper: Pakistan

Author:
Daniel Markey
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
How should the United States respond to Pakistan's ongoing political crisis? In particular, what position should the Bush administration take with regard to Pakistan's national elections?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and Asia

3097. Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action

Author:
Joshua W. Busby
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
When Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, Americans witnessed on their own soil what looked like an overseas humanitarian-relief operation. The storm destroyed much of the city, causing more than $80 billion in damages, killing more than 1,800 people, and displacing in excess of 270,000. More than 70,000 soldiers were mobilized, including 22,000 active duty troops and 50,000-plus members of the National Guard (about 10 percent of the total Guard strength). Katrina also had severe effects on critical infrastructure, taking crude oil production and refinery capacity off-line for an unprecedented length of time. At a time when the United States was conducting military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the country suddenly had to divert its attention and military resources to respond to a domestic emergency.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and America

3098. Planning for Post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

Author:
Michelle D. Gavin
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the refusal of President Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) ruling party to tolerate challenges to their power has led them to systematically dismantle the most effective workings of Zimbabwe's economic and political systems, replacing these with structures of corruption, patronage, and repression. The resulting 80 percent unemployment rate, hyperinflation, and severe food, fuel, and power shortages have created a national climate of desperation and instability. Meanwhile, often-violent repression has left the opposition divided and eroded public confidence in mechanisms to effect peaceful political change.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

3099. The Economic Logic of Illegal Immigration

Author:
Gordon H. Hanson
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Illegal immigration is a source of mounting concern for politicians in the United States. In the past ten years, the U.S. population of illegal immigrants has risen from five million to nearly twelve million, prompting angry charges that the country has lost control over its borders. Congress approved measures last year that have significantly tightened enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border in an effort to stop the flow of unauthorized migrants, and it is expected to make another effort this year at the first comprehensive reform of immigration laws in more than twenty years.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Mexico

3100. Reform of the International Monetary Fund

Author:
Peter B. Kenen
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is undertaking a wide-ranging reform of its governance and operations within a framework proposed by Rodrigo de Rato, its managing director. The proposed reform is inspired in large part by the emergence of large middle-income developing countries such as China and India, which now play a major role in the world economy but are underrepresented in the Fund as the low-income developing countries. The proposed reform is also inspired by the need to simplify the Fund's internal practices and focus more intensively on its basic mandate: to “oversee the development of the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation.”
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and India