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  • Author: Leighton Ku, Bethany Kessler
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Urban Institute
  • Abstract: This work was conducted under Subtask 2.2.12 of HHS Contract HHS-100-94-1009. Many constructive comments were provided by staff of the Department of Health and Human Services, including Linda Sanches, David Nielsen, Penelope Pine and Bob Tomlinson. We gratefully acknowledge data and advice made available by Ron North and Roger Buchanan of the Health Care Financing Administration and Charles Scott of the Social Security Administration. Many colleagues at the Urban Institute offered useful advice or data, including Brian Bruen, Rebecca Clark, Teresa Coughlin, Linda Giannarelli, Jeff Passel, Karen Tumlin and Wendy Zimmerman. All opinions expressed are the authors' and should not be interpreted as opinions of the Urban Institute or the Department of Health and Human Services.
  • Topic: Government, Migration
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Matti Pohjola
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: There is substantial evidence that new information technologies are in many ways transforming the operations of modern economies. More than half of employees use a computer at work in the most advanced industrial countries. About 10 per cent of the value of all private investment in fixed non-residential capital is devoted to computers and peripheral equipment in the United States and some other economies. This share goes up to 25 per cent when investment in information processing equipment is included. Nevertheless, all spending on information technology, including hardware, software and services, does not amount to more than 3-4 per cent of nominal GDP in these countries. The share is, however, increasing rapidly, indicating that a steady state has not yet been reached.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Francis Kramarz
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Tony Addison
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Reconstructing Africa's war damaged economies is an urgent task. This is especially so in a group of countries - Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique - which must also complete their economic and political transition from state socialism. Somalia, which shares their common history, must eventually be rebuilt. All of these countries must address their deep problems of underdevelopment and poverty. The challenges are therefore three-fold: to overcome underdevelopment, to make the transition from state socialism, and to reconstruct economies and societies.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau
  • Author: Richard M. Auty
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Since the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable resource-rich development. It argues that structural change in the resource-rich countries causes the tradeable sector to shrink vis-à-vis the nontradeables sector (that includes protected manufacturing) in a manner that is not sustainable. This adverse trend in the production structure is associated with policies to close the economy and create discretionary rents behind protective barriers that result in the cumulative misallocation of resources. The build-up of produced capital and skills is slower than in the successful resource-deficient countries. Overall, the inherently slower and less egalitarian economic growth trajectory of the resource-rich countries is intensified and the end result is usually a growth collapse. The collapse causes all forms of capital, including institutional, social and natural capital, to run down. Economic reform is therefore protracted and it may take in excess of one generation to restore sustainable rapid growth. The adverse features of resource-rich development tend to be more pronounced in the smaller countries. They are also heightened where the resource rents accrue mainly to the central government, as in the mineral economies and in the slow-reforming transition economies. Successful reform requires not only appropriate macro and micro policies, but also the construction of institutions to limit the scope for governments to misallocate resources. Part of the explanation for the superior performance of the resource-deficient countries is that their spartan endowment of natural capital acts as a constraint on government failure by placing a premium on the need to nurture scarce resources, including skills, institutions and social capital, and to achieve an efficient allocation of capital.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, Government, International Political Economy
  • Author: Sergio Rebelo
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Starting from the celebrated neoclassical (Solow) model of economic growth, this paper discusses new ideas in growth theory focussing on how to make sustained growth feasible. It first reviews models that broadened the notion of capital to include human capital and the state of technology. These extensions of the neoclassical theory are not very satisfying at a descriptive level because productivity growth is associated with either human or physical capital accumulation in a way that does not interact with the invention of new technologies.
  • Topic: Economics, Science and Technology
  • Author: Jonathan Krueger
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The international community is increasingly turning to the use of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) to solve problems of global environmental degradation and transboundary pollution. One of the most important of these MEAs is the 1989 Basel Convention dealing with transboundary movements of hazardous waste. The Convention has been instrumental in helping to eliminate the dumping of industrialized countries' hazardous wastes on developing countries. However, the development of the regime has been slow and it is now tackling the more controversial issue of regulating 'recyclable' hazardous wastes. This briefing paper provides a short guide to the development and current status of the international effort to manage transboundary movements of hazardous wastes.
  • Topic: Environment, Globalization
  • Author: Peter I. Hajnal
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: As the next millennium approaches, the international community faces the fundamental challenge of devising at the global level mechanisms for governance to reinforce, and at times replace, those that have operated effectively for several centuries at the national level. The end of the cold war has substantially eliminated a world divided among a democratic west, communist east and non-aligned south, highlighted a host of new transnational, human security priorities and led to the demise of the self-contained "national security" state. The advent of globalization in finance, investment, trade, production and communication has led many national economies to be integrated into a single global economy, whose healthy functioning is increasingly vital to the well being of citizens even in large, advanced industrial economies such as the United States and Japan. Finally, new openness and technology have meant that many issues once dealt with primarily as a part of domestic politics - supervising banking systems, protecting the environment, combating organized crime, drugs and disease, ensuring nuclear safety, and creating employment, have now come to require collective international action for their effective accomplishment.
  • Topic: International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe
  • Author: Ariel Dinar, Senai Alemu
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: Treaty-making, or negotiation/consultation processes on international water are guided usually by formal and informal rules, including international law, and accumulated experience, and are also affected by domestic politics. Generating a base-line agreement is a difficult task, which combines scientific uncertainty with political, economic, cultural and ideological issues.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Dennis C. Blair, Robert L. Gallucci, John M. Shalikashvili, John J. Hamre, Sam Nunn, Paula Scalingi, Richard E. Combs, Janne E. Nolan, Henry G. Chiles, Theodore S. Gold, John D. Holum, Richard C. Macke, Joerg H. Menzel
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: The changing nature of technology and the proliferation of advanced commercialized technology are causing a transformation in the nature of threat and security issues and perceptions. The role of technology within the security environment has greatly enhanced the capabilities of both state and non-state actors. Concurrently, the use of technology has increased the vulnerabilities of states to the point where actors with a minimal amount of resources, such as transnational groups or terrorist organizations, can inflict significant harm on their victims. Although these actors are not capable of attacking the United States or its allies head-on, they may be able to exploit technology or use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to present the United States or its allies with asymmetric threats and attacks. As a consequence, the traditional objectives and methods surrounding arms control and threat reduction must be adapted to in incorporate these new threats and to inject some certainty into an uncertain situation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Les Bissell, Johanna Hjerthen, Balachandar Jayaraman, Elizabeth Karkus, John Leahy, Gerald Mulder, Pamela Chasek, David Leonard Downie, Kevin Baumert, Sean Clark, Joshua Tosteson
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: In December 1997, the Third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) met in Kyoto, Japan to negotiate a protocol to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Two of the main features of the Kyoto Protocol are (1) legally binding requirements for Annex I countries to reduce collectively their emissions of six greenhouse gases by at least 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012; and (2) flexibility measures, including joint implementation (Article 6), a Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12) and emissions trading (Article 17, which appeared as Article 16bis in the draft Protocol text adopted in Kyoto) to encourage countries to meet their obligations at the lowest cost. Although emissions trading (ET) provisions were included in the Kyoto Protocol, the Parties did not establish rules and guidelines for the trading system. Instead, Governments have been asked to address these issues at COP-4, to be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina on 2-13 November 1998.
  • Topic: Environment, International Cooperation, International Law
  • Political Geography: Europe, United Nations
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper is introduced by an analysis of the concept of region, followed by an application of this analytical framework to the Persian Gulf region. Several problems in this region are identified, including a seemingly open-ended arms race and a significant risk of war. As a possible remedy to these problems, the author proposes a policy of Common Security, intended to satisfy the legitimate security problems of all states in the region. As a consequence, he recommends efforts to ensure the strictly defensive nature of the military postures of regional states, to be implemented unilaterally as well as by means of arms control negotiations and regulations of the international arms trade. The paper concludes with a Postscript on the Iraqi crisis of 1997/98.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Persia
  • Author: Pirjo Jukarainen
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Spatial politics is 'alive and kicking'. Human aspiration to define, represent and master spaces has not ended. Claim about 'the end of the geography', due to the decreasing importance of spatial distance or location, is thus misleading. Albeit the mode of spatial politics is obviously changing, it does not mean that it would completely loose its significance. Northern hemisphere makes no exception in this respect. An analysis of the Nordic journal, 'Nord Revy' (later called 'North') shows that spaces are actively constructed and spatial development strategies are extensively formulated also in the name of 'northernness'. 'Northernness' gets multiple meanings and becomes 'real' within various spatial representations. This analysis covers about seven years of spatial development starting from the year 1990, thus somewhat revealing the overall spatial politics of the 90's.
  • Topic: Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Marta Martinelli
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In 1993 Bouthros Bouthros-Ghali expressed his admiration for the methods performed by a group of Catholic peace-lovers, called Community of Sant'Egidio, in their attempts at mediating a deep rooted conflict like the one in Mozambique. He said: " The Community of Sant'Egidio has developed techniques which are different but at the same time complementary to those performed by professional peace-makers. The Community has discreetly worked in Mozambique for years, towards a peaceful adjustment to the situation...It has practised its techniques characterised by confidentiality and informality, together and in harmony with the official work of international governments and inter-governmental organisations. Starting from the Mozambican experience the term "Italian formula" is used to explain this mixture, unique in its kind, of commitment to peace, governmental and not. Respect for the parties to the conflict and all those involved in the field is fundamental for these initiatives to be successful"
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa, Italy, Mozambique
  • Author: Béla Greskovits
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: While reviewing various interpretations of the postcommunist transformation it is demonstrated that the manner social scientists think about postcommunism has much in common with the ideas of their predecessors who faced the emergence of capitalism over the past centuries. What explains the continuity of the major views? Why did the debate on the perspectives of capitalism and on the nature of its strengths and weaknesses reappear in the new historical case of postcommunist market society? This author argues that neither the specific historical nor the systemic context of capitalist expansion can account for the prevalence of competing interpretations. Rather the latter is the standard way social scientists think about systems and systemic change in general. But the trench-war between rival views of postcommunist market society also reflects the impact of new psychological, political, and institutional factors specific to the mass-production of social science ideas towards the end of the XXth century.
  • Topic: Communism, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Sidney Tarrow
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: While much research has focussed on the interest group process growing up around the institutions of European union, far less attention has been given to the contentious forms of politics appearing at the base of the process of European integration. Part of the problem lies in models of integration that either focus on single levels of the European Union — states or supranational entities — or on vertical policy networks and domains. But another important part results from the difficulty of systematically analyzing the reactions of ordinary people to EU directives. This paper both reports on a new, computer-assisted method of studying European contentious politics and draws on a case study of recent industrial conflict to demonstrate how supranational actors, national political elites, domestic social actors and the press are beginning to interact to produce a composite — and contentious — European polity.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Pierre Pestieau, Claudine Gouyette
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: In general, when the concepts of efficiency and of welfare state are coupled, one first thinks of the effects of the welfare state, notably including the taxes it implies and the benefits it generates, on the efficiency of the economy. This topic has been widely discussed in recent works. One of the main charges addressed to modern welfare states is, indeed, that they would hurt economic performance and international competitiveness. Another charge just as widespread is that they would be inefficient in the provision of social services, and be responsible for the proliferation of transfer programs that are costly and miss their target populations. This charge is thus different from the first one, though not totally unrelated. It concerns the economic efficiency of the welfare state per se, and this is the topic of this paper.
  • Topic: Government, Political Economy
  • Author: Stefan Troebst
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: Not too much of inside knowledge of the Balkans was needed to realise that the winter of 1997/98 turned the formerly autonomous Yugoslav province of Kosovo inhabited predominantly by Albanians into one of the most violent-prone crisis zones in Europe. In September 1997, a massive protest movement of Albanian students gained momentum; from November 1997 on, an underground "Liberation Army of Kosovo" (UÇK)) with an estimated strength of several hundred fighters increased the number of attacks on and assassinations of Serbian officials and police officers; and the regime retaliated first by police violence, show trials, long-term sentences, and nationalist tirades, then by bringing more and more security forces into the central part of Kosovo. In January 1998, The Economist depicted Kosovo as "Europe's roughest neighbourhood”.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania
  • Author: Pal Dunay
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The story of post-World War 2 European integration had started before integration theory gained popularity. One has to bear in mind, however, that the idea of European integration was launched with modest objectives in the 1950s. Except for some visionary statesmen, like Jean Monnet and some others, both the subject matters to be covered by integration and the geographical scope was limited. Six countries aimed at establishing a free trade zone and not much else was on their "plate" when they signed the Rome Treaty on 25 March 1957.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: John Lewis Gaddis
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The single most striking feature of the post-Cold War environment is the diffusion, not the disappearance, of threats. The half-century extending from 1941 to 1991 was, for the United States, one in which threats were both focused and obvious. From the time of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor until the final collapse of the Soviet Union exactly fifty years later, we knew who our enemies were, or at least might be. As a consequence, we abandoned the isolationism that had characterized most of our history in favor of an unaccustomed but - as it turned out - highly effective internationalism.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: William I. Hitchcock
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: Ever since the end of the Cold War, analysts have engaged in long discussions about what sort of international order would replace it. Though these discussions have ranged widely in their assessments, they usually took as their starting point a common assumption: that the Cold War order and the basic structure of international relations it represented, was over and done for. From 1989 until about 1995, this assessment seemed accurate: the alliance was falling apart, war broke out in Europe, the western economies were in a tailspin, and the delicate architecture that bound Germany to the states of Western Europe seemed to be in jeopardy, overburdened by the arrival of a united, powerful Germany. Whatever order we had, it didn't seem like anything we had seen before.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Yuri Nazarkin
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The starting point for this paper is the National Security Blueprint of the Russian Federation approved by Presidential Decree No. 1300 dated 17 December 1997. As the Blueprint itself clarifies, it is "a political document reflecting the aggregate of officially accepted views regarding goals and state strategy in the sphere of ensuring the security of the individual, society and the state from external and internal threats of a political, economic, social, military, man-made (technogennyy), ecological, information or other nature, in the light of existing resources and potential." It is a conceptual document of a general nature which is intended to be the basis for the elaboration of specific programmes and organisational documents in the sphere of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Fred Tanner
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The dynamics of European security has become considerably more difficult to comprehend in recent years. This is due primarily to two sets of developments. First an "amorphous threat-free post-Cold War security setting" has replaced the distinct Alliance-wide threat from the Soviet Union. Second, new risks and threats have increasingly affected European security from regions immediately adjoining Western Europe. Conflicts and notorious instability loom in the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Balkans and the Mediterranean region, including North Africa and the Middle East. As a consequence, security cooperation in Europe currently struggles to cope with these risks of non-military nature and ambiguous threat scenarios from the "out-of-area".
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: William C. Wohlforth
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The most important security threat Russia faces, and the main threat it poses to the rest of the world, is its own implosion. If traditional security has to do with the manipulation and managment of the use of military force by states, then Russia's major contemporary problems must be understood under the "new security" rubric. Because the world has never before had to deal with the breakdown of a nuclear superpower, the security challenges Russia presents are certainly novel. But if "new security" is supposed to encompass problems that are transnational in nature and challenge state-centric analysis, then it too does not capture today's Russian question. For at the root of Russia's security problems is the absence of an effective government. To be sure, all of these problems are made more complicated by globalization. Many of them would continue to pester world politics even if Moscow had a capable government. But the root of these problems and the reason they present such great potential dangers is the absence of a capable state in Russia.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Thomas Risse, Sarah Mendelson, Neil Fligstein, Jan Kubik, Jeffrey T. Checkel, Consuelo Cruz, Kathleen McNamara, Sheri Berman, Frank Dobbin, Mark Blyth, Ken Pollack, George Steinmetz, Daniel Philpott, Gideon Rose, Martha Finnemore, Kathryn Skikkink, Marie Gottschalk, John Kurt Jacobsen, Anna Seleny
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The last decade or so has witnessed a resurgence in scholarship employing ideational and cultural factors in the analysis of political life. This scholarship has addressed political phenomena across a variety of national and international settings, with studies of European politics being particularly well represented. For example, the work of scholars like Peter Hall (1993), Peter Katzenstein (1996), Ronald Inglehart (1997), Robert Putnam (1994) and Daniel Jonah Goldhagen (1995) has improved our understandings of European polities, societies and economies. Yet despite a recent rise in interest, ideational and cultural explanations still meet with skepticism in many quarters of the discipline. Some scholars doubt whether non-material factors like ideas or culture have independent causal effects, and others, who accept that such factors might matter, despair of devising viable ways of analyzing their impact on political life.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Democratization, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, France, Latin America
  • Author: Kenneth Prewitt
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: Networking is ubiquitous, Networks are not. By networks we have in mind professional and scientific collaborations unrestricted by geography—a group of scholars taking advantage of improved mobility and communication to work across institutional and national boundaries. This report draws from a conference that inquired into the role of networks in research, training and institution-strengthening in sub-Saharan Africa—terms commonly, if loosely, associated with "capacity building." Although the conference focused on networks that were making headway toward their declared goals, the purpose was not to celebrate success stories. It was to be analytic, with the intention of identifying generic questions and preliminary answers, particularly lessons of use to those involved in building, maintaining, strengthening and funding professional networks.
  • Topic: Development, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Richard T. Carson, Donald R. McCubbin
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: Concerns about the sustainability of resource use have no doubt been raised since civilization began. The most famous proponent of these concerns is Thomas Malthus (1976), who, in 1798, predicted that population growth would outstrip the ability of agriculture to supply food, and mass starvation would ensue. More recently, the widely read Limits to Growth report, by Meadows et al. (1974), presented a model of resource use and development that predicted humans would face unprecedented pollution and starvation, if current resource use patterns continued into the future. Of course, both reports' most dire predictions have not come true for several reasons. They failed to account for improvements in technology, the power of market prices to ration scarce resources, and the public's demand for environmental preservation when confronted with a perceived scarcity of environmental goods. Although the dire predictions failed to materialize, many believe that environmental quality will deteriorate as the world's economies grow, unless there are significant changes in human behavior. In this paper we make a modest attempt, using air pollution data, to examine the linkage between economic growth, human behavior, and environmental quality.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Rebecca Johnson, Fraser Cameron, Alberto Navarro, Thierry Tardy, Sophia Clement, Glenys Kinnock, Tom Spencer, John Palmer, Joao de Deus Pinheiro, Christian Kudlich, Paolo Foresti, Hubert Heiss, Peter Ricketts, Elie Marcuse, Johannes Swoboda, Patricia Chilton, Maj Theorin, Stelios Stavrides, Thomas Eckert, Karen Smith, Krister Bringeus, Alexandra Laignel-Lavastine, Ognyan Minchev, Janos Vandor, Eric Remacle, Pauline Neville-Jones, Vasilij Likhachev, Peter Truscott, Jannis Sakellariou, Jesus Nunez, Claire Spencer, Birchara Khader, Alain Gresh, Lotte Leicht, Tim Hancock, David Nyheim, Francisco Rey, Bronwyn Brady, Geraldine O'Callaghan, Peter Saveiys, Brian Wood, Kiflemariam Gebrewold, Bernd Hemingway, Alyson J. K. Bailes
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: In his opening remarks as Chair of the conference, Tom Spencer, Chair of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, congratulated the organisers on their excellent timing. The European Union was now in a phase of 'pragmatic' evolution of CFSP and he believed the next nine months presented opportunities for progress.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Ali Carkoglu
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Conflict and cooperation constitute the basis of much interest in political analysis. Nevertheless, political theory abounds in disagreement as to which predominates, which constitutes the norm and as to the reasons for their occurrence. Game theoretical models have been applied to these problems with some success. The proposed article aims to contribute to our understanding of the phenomena of creating cooperation, and thus regulating a situation of conflict between two actors by a third party. A third party will be introduced to a prisoners' dilemma game and conditions for its cooperation creating regulatory strategies will be derived. The impact of informational and institutional structures on the prospects for cooperative outcomes will be discussed. Applications to governments' policies in regulating domestic conflict and to a hegemon's problem of maintaining order in the international arena will be shortly discussed.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Law
  • Author: Christopher Chase-Dunn, Thomas D. Hall, Susan Manning
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: All world–systems with at least a chiefdom level of political organization exhibit a pattern of the rise and fall of large polities. Among chiefdoms this pattern has been referred to as "cycling". In state–based systems it is known as the rise and fall of empires. And in the modern system it is called the "power cycle" or the "hegemonic sequence." This paper reexamines the question of synchronicities of rise and fall in systems linked only by very long distance prestige goods trade. Earlier research found that increases and decreases in the territorial sizes of empires and the population sizes of cities were highly correlated in East Asia and West Asia/Mediterranean regions from about 600 BCE to 1500 CE. Though data were somewhat scarce for South Asia, it appeared that Indic civilization did not rise and fall in tandem with the East and the West. In this paper we report an improved test of the synchronicity of empire sizes and the different pattern found in India
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: South Asia, East Asia
  • Author: Young Jong Choi
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Japan's preference toward regional institutions has received a great attention in recent years in relation to the development of regional institutions in Asia (exclusively East Asia) and the Pacific (the broader Asia-Pacific region). Japan's policy toward Asia and the Pacific has often been characterized by "hegemonic defection" and Japan as a "reactive state". The former indicates the absence of Japan's leadership in regional institution building (Mack and Ravenhill 1995: 8). The latter portrays Japan as incapable of pursuing pro-active policies in regional affairs because of its consensus-oriented culture, historical legacy of colonialism, domestic political gridlock and most of all extreme dependence upon the U.S. security umbrella (Calder 1988; Hellmann 1988; Pyle 1992; Curtis 1993).
  • Topic: Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Jack E. Holmes, Kevin Joldersma, Aaron Keck
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: The author has studied U.S. foreign policy long cycles for two decades and has an extensive database covering 1776-1990. A good deal of attention has been paid to U.S. foreign policy in the post-1945 setting where the U.S. is a world superpower. Now that the U.S. has been freed from the immediate demands of the Cold War, it is important to study American policy over the long run, especially the period before 1945. This paper uses conclusions from the author's previous work to raise issues which have implications for the study of world long cycles. Particular attention is given to consensus (societal/governmental) variables since the U.S. is one of the few countries with a long history under the same written constitution. The American experience indicates that the U.S. is inclined toward independent action as sometimes dictated by domestic considerations. While it is clear that the U.S. will act as a superpower in part due to the nature of the international system, it is important to consider some uniquely American features which also have an important impact on policy. The author's work includes two books on long-term American foreign policy trends. The first one, The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy, was published in 1985. It presented a general theory regarding how and why introvert and extrovert foreign policy moods alternate every two decades. This theory, as well as the dates of the cycles, is based on the work of Frank L. Klingberg (1952). Klingberg elaborates on his cycles in later works (1983 and 1996). Since the 1985 work contained a good deal of theory, it was thought that a more empirical study of these trends would be in order. Toward this end, the author created over 150 variables which have been given annual values for at least 150 years. These variables were based on the work of other authors and compilations of data. The resulting work, Ambivalent America, which has been the basis for several convention papers and is nearing completion as a book, raises a second set of conclusions which supplement those of the first book. At the same time, several authors have investigated world long cycles and raised a number of important issues. Most of these authors emphasize the period since the start of major European influence on the world while others go back prior to that period. With the exceptions of works by Klingberg and this author, however, similar attention has not been given to American trends. Pollins and Schweller (1997) do explore some issues relating to interactions of American and world cycles. The author believes that a conceptual comparison of American long cycles with world long cycles will raise some important issues, and that is the purpose of this paper.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Erik Melander
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper presents a simple and straightforward model of the security dilemma in settings in which the parties lack secure second–strike capabilities with weapons of mass destruction. The model includes first–strike advantages and incomplete information as to the antagonist's preference ordering. Imperfect information is used to simulate mutual fear of surprise attack.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Author: Layna Mosley
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: A central research problem in comparative and international political economy concerns the implications of economic globalization - and more specifically, of international capital mobility - for national economic policy choice. A large body of recent literature suggests that governments are, at least to some extent, constrained by relatively high levels of international capital mobility (Garrett, 1998; O'Brien, 1992). At the very least, the asset allocation decisions of financial market participants affect interest rate levels, and, therefore, the cost of borrowing for governments and private actors.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Tong Whan Park
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: Though a half century has passed since the creation of a modern nation-state, Korea lags far behind Western European nations in the development of a civil society. It may be due to a number of factors, the most important of which could be the different path to modernization Korea has taken and the forced imposition of the nation-state system on a Confucian social structure. As such, the Seoul government's decision-making in general and foreign policymaking in particular have often lacked sensitivity to what the citizens may think and desire.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Israel, Korea, Western Europe
  • Author: James C. Roberts
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: In 1969, Johan Galtung proposed that physical violence be measured as the difference between actual and potential life expectancy. Structural violence occurs when the cause of this difference is caused by the economic structure of society. Measuring actual life expectancy is not difficult but potential life expectancy cannot be observed, it can only be projected.
  • Topic: International Relations, Peace Studies
  • Author: Gerald M. Steinberg
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Since the beginning of the atomic age in 1945, the possession and deployment of nuclear weapons has become the dominant factor in the international system. Those countries that acquired nuclear weapons have become (or maintained their status as) primary world powers, but as the number of such countries grew, the potential for the use of nuclear weapons also increased. In the early 1960s, President Kennedy warned that unless immediate and significant action was taken, within a decade there would be as many as 20 nuclear powers. The process of proliferation was seen as one of the most dangerous and destabilizing aspects of the nuclear era.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India
  • Author: Charles Tilly
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: November 1830 brought London to one of its greatest nineteenth-century peaks of visible, vigorous, and often violent popular contention. When King William IV rode in state through Westminster from St. James to the opening of Parliament on 2 November, people who gathered along the streets cheered the king but jeered prime minister Wellington. Onlookers roared “Down with the New Police! No martial law!” (MC [ Morning Chronicle] 3 November 1830). Near Parliament, two people waved tricolor flags, ten or a dozen men wore tricolor cockades, and members of the crowd cried out “No police” or “Vote by ballot” (LT [ Timesof London], 3 November 1830).
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, London
  • Author: Charles Tilly
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: How do diverse forms of political contention—revolutions, strikes, wars, social movements, coups d'état, and others—interact with shifts from one kind of regime to another? To what extent, and how, do alterations of contentious politics and transformations of regimes cause each other? These questions loom behind current inquiries into democratization, with their debate between theorists who consider agreements among elites to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for democracy and those who insist that democracy only emerges from interactions between ruling-class actions and popular struggle. They arise when political analysts ask whether (or under what conditions) social movements promote democracy, and whether stable democracy extinguishes or tames social movements. They appear from another angle in investigations of whether democracies tend to avoid war with each other.
  • Topic: Democratization, Politics
  • Author: Rodney W. Nichols, Susan U. Raymond, Margaret Catley-Carlson, Allan Rosenfield, Michael E. Kafrissen
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: Surely one of the oddest of all recent debates is well underway in the United States. At issue is whether, in the year 2000 the population of the nation should be counted nose-by-nose, on foot, by an phalanx of freshly minted, part-time, house visiting census-takers (who evidently missed 8.4 million residents the last time they tried in 1990) or whether a technique should be used that would employ statistical sampling methods to reach census conclusions. The majority of those most heatedly engaged in the public debate probably did not even like math in school; many would not be able to explain the likely accuracy of either method. But debate they do, in the time-honored tradition of policy making in democracies—largely because the coveted prize is not merely an accurate count of the number of individuals, but more importantly an advantageous decision on the number of voters in electoral districts.
  • Topic: Government, Health, Politics, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Peter Huber, Susan Raymond, Rodney W. Nichols, Kenneth Dam, Kenneth R. Foster, George Ehrlich, Debra Miller, Alan Charles Raul, Ronald Bailey, Alex Kozinski
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: As science and technology push the edges of understanding, innovation makes the once unimaginable merely quotidian. The flow—the torrent—of change inevitably meets the stock of laws and regulations that structure society. And, often, the legal system and the judiciary must cope with the resulting swirls, eddies, and, at times, whirlpools of ethical controversy and economic and societal choice.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Law, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, New York, America
  • Author: Soodursun Jugessur, Susan U. Raymond, Stephen Chandiwana, Clive Shiff, Pieter J.D. Drenth, D. N. Tarpeh, Iba Kone, Jacques Gaillard, Roland Waast
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: This paper examines the eureka factor in science based development and underscores the increasing concern that Africa lags behind in S due to political and social instability coupled by low investments in technologies. The paper emphasises that African science should come up with a decisive policy for investment in new style education and capacity building for S that is relevant to the African experience and addresses problems of real concern to the community. Science led development in Africa should reduce replication of foreign technologies and invest in social capital of its scientists and its R institutions for sustainable economic development. The aim of the paper is not to offer prescriptive solutions but to highlight areas which should stimulate debate in small working groups examining how Africa can learn from its own experience as well as that of other nations in developing an appropriate system of innovation for science led development.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Richard Danzig, John D. Holum, Rodney W. Nichols, Susan U. Raymond, Joshua Lederberg, Stephen S. Morse
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: New York Academy of Sciences
  • Abstract: Having lived through, and indeed taken a leadership part in, the American Revolutionary War and the War of 1812, Thomas Jefferson wrote to Noah Worcester in 1817, "You have not been mistaken in supposing my views and feeling to be in favor of the abolition of war. Of my disposition to maintain peace until its condition shall be made less tolerable than that of war itself, the world has had proofs, and more, perhaps, than it has approved. I hope it is practicable, by improving the mind and morals of society, to lesson the disposition to war; but of its abolition I despair."
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Helen I. Safa
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: What are the social consequences of export-led industrialization, and are they a deterrent to sustainable development? This paper explores these questions by examining the link between export-led industrialization, the feminization of labor, and the growth of female-headed households in the Dominican Republic in a community that has undergone a marked shift in economic base from sugar production, employing mostly men, to export manufacturing, employing mostly women. Employment in export manufacturing gives women greater economic autonomy and greater leverage in the household, which, combined with deterioration in male employment, raises women's resistance to marriage and weakens the role of the male breadwinner. While female-headed households have increased in number, the economic and emotional support provided by consanguineal kin, often living in extended families, has enabled these households to function quite adequately. Under these circumstances, the female-headed household should not be seen as a deterrent to sustainability.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Gender Issues
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Anthony T. Bryan, Roget V. Bryan
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Regionalism in the Caribbean has emerged as a response to overcoming the development constraints of small size. The theories and strategies that helped to advance the process of Caribbean integration are undergoing a revision because of the process of globalization and the momentum toward free trade in the Western Hemisphere. The Caribbean countries now have to adapt rapidly to the new global liberalization process, based on reciprocal commitments. The way forward is not easy. The road map for the new regionalism in the Caribbean reflects a paradigm shift in the earlier theory and practice of integration. This paper explores the new face of regionalism within the context of second generation regional integration theories and smaller economies' agendas. The dynamic is much more complicated than originally conceived by Caribbean theorists and economists.
  • Topic: Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Anthony P. Maingot
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This study focuses on the complex interaction between local political, social, and economic exigencies and the imperatives of the global economy in Trinidad. Local systems operate according to the perceived needs of their elites and the moral codes and biases of the political culture. In Trinidad, the dominant biases have to do with racial competition. For more than five decades, efforts have been made to use the state to extend economic rights to underprivileged Afro-Trinidadians. In the mid-1980s, however, a shift in macroeconomic thinking led to liberalization and a growing gap between the traditional nationalist/statist ideology and the actual decisions of political elites. This paper explores this unresolved incongruity through a case study of Petrotrin, the national petroleum company that oversees the fast-growing oil and gas sector.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Willian C. Smith, Nizar Messari
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper explores President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's record and his attempt to seek reelection on October 4 over the challenge of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and the left. These events are examined in the context of a central, inescapable dilemma of contemporary Brazilian politics: how to reconcile the exigencies of the market and globalization with the equally compelling needs to promote democracy while combating poverty, violence, and social exclusion. The paper concludes with analyses of various alternative politico-economic scenarios for Brazil following the October elections.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Brazil
  • Author: Alberto Cardelle
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The increasingly diminished role of the state in Latin America has been accompanied by decentralization of health care delivery and an enhanced role of the private sector in delivery of services. Simultaneously, in the process of regional democratization, the number of organized civil society groups, NGOs, has expanded, increasing the alliances formed between NGOs and governments in the process of state reform. This paper examines the experiences of 20 NGO-government collaborative health care reform projects undertaken in Guatemala, Chile, and Ecuador. Assessments are made as to how factors, such as civil society-state relations, democratization, state reform, and international pressure, have catalyzed or constrained policies promoting the collaborations. The projects' implementation processes are analyzed with an emphasis on determining their sustainability, and various aspects of the collaborations — for example, funding, coordinated planning, and training — are evaluated. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations for future implementation of similar projects.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Manuel Pastor, Carol Wise
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Even as multilateral officials adamantly oppose the implementation of currency boards as a way of stabilizing exchange rates and inflation in the wake of the recent Asian financial crisis, Argentina remains committed to such an arrangement. This paper explores the political and economic conditions that prompted Argentine policymakers to adopt an economic management model in 1991 that is generally considered to be less flexible than other approaches now prevailing in Latin America. Short-term outcomes as well as longer-term patterns of economic restructuring now underway in Argentina are analyzed. The authors argue that, despite considerable success on the macro-stabilization front, policymakers still have their work cut out in terms of designing a set of second-phase measures to facilitate smoother adjustment at the microeconomic level.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Stephen Lander, Ambler Moss
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) was the bold centerpiece of the Summit of the Americas held in Miami in December 1994, and the FTAA recently received further impetus at the Summit of the Americas II in Santiago, Chile. This Agenda Paper, comprises two essays, one an overview of the process by Ambler Moss, “Moving Toward a Free Trade Area of the Americas,” and the other a look forward by Stephen Lande, “Launching Negotiations and Concrete Progress by the Millennium,” which assesses the progress made to date in working toward the FTAA and particularly examines the subject of “business facilitation” or measures designed to enhancethe flows of trade even as the FTAA is being negotiated.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Latin America
  • Author: Gisela Salomón
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: In June 1992, 172 governments meeting at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, agreed to work together to promote sustainable development. Five years later, in 1997, environmental problems continued to deteriorate. In this article, Gisela Salomón analyzes the difficulties faced by Latin American countries in implementing Agenda 21 and points to areas where progress has been made in sustainable development. The author expresses the need for governments to strengthen their political will to implement environmental strategies and to consider not only the economic aspects of development but social and ecological as well, emphasizing the importance of conscience-building, especially through education.
  • Topic: Development, Environment
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: T.V. Paul
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
  • Abstract: In this paper, I explore the impact of globalization on one of the fundamental functions of nation-states—national security. Contrary to the polar positions of the proponents and the opponents of globalization, I argue that national security still remains a core function of the nation-state, but the extent of security behavior varies depending on the particular situations of states. Largely under the influence of systemic changes propelled by the end of the Cold War, rapid technological changes in both the civilian and military spheres, and the resurgence of the American hegemonic power, the nature of security competition has altered somewhat, but it is premature to bury the nation-state or its role as the key provider of national security.
  • Topic: Security, Globalization, Government
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: David Satterthwaite
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: In considering how the Istanbul Declaration on Human Settlements and the Habitat Agenda, the two key documents agreed upon at the Habitat II Conference, deal with poverty (and with other important issues, such as sustainable development1), it is easy to point to a lack of precision in some of the language used, the repetition, and the tendency toward long lists of "problems" with little consideration of their linkages (and often their underlying causes). But this might also be an inevitable result of any document that had to be endorsed by representatives of so many different governments. Where the wording on some controversial issue appears unclear or imprecise, this may be because any greater clarity or precision prevented agreement by some representative of a government or some group of countries, such as the Group of 77 or the European Union.
  • Topic: Security, Industrial Policy, Poverty, United Nations
  • Author: Andrew Moravcsik
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Formal international human rights regimes differ from most other forms of international cooperation in that their primary purpose is to hold governments accountable to their own citizens for purely domestic activities. Many establish international committees, courts, and procedures for this purpose. Why would governments establish an arrangement that invades domestic sovereignty in this way? Current scholarship suggests two explanations. A realist view asserts that the most powerful democracies seek to externalize their values, coercing or enticing weaker and less democratic governments to accept human rights regimes. A ideational view argues that the most established democracies externalize their values, setting in motion a transnational process of diffusion and persuasion that socializes less democratic governments to accept such regimes.
  • Topic: Democratization, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Andrew Moravcsik
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Studies of international regimes, law, and negotiation, as well as regional integration, near universally conclude that political entrepreneurship by high officials of international organizations—“supranational entrepreneurship”—decisively influences the outcomes of multilateral negotiations. Studies of the European Community (EC) have long stressed their informal agenda-setting, mediation, and mobilization. Yet the studies underlying this interdisciplinary consensus tend to be anecdotal, atheoretical, and uncontrolled. The study reported here derives and tests explicit hypotheses from general theories of political entrepreneurship and tests them across multiple cases (the five most important EC negotiations) while controlling for the actions of national governments. Two findings emerge: First, supranational entrepreneurship is generally redundant or futile; governments can almost always efficiently act as their own entrepreneurs. Second, rare cases of entrepreneurial success arise not when officials intervene to help overcome interstate collective action problems, as current theories presume, but when they help overcome domestic(or transnational) collective action problems. This suggests fundamental refinements in the core assumptions about transaction costs underlying general theories of international regimes, law, and negotiation.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: J. Lawrence Broz
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Prevailing approaches to the politics of monetary policy in the United States are based on closed economy assumptions, which is appropriate for analyzing the period before about 1980. However, the opening of U.S. and foreign financial markets since the early 1980s has had a profound effect on domestic monetary policy and domestic monetary politics. The major policy effect is that the transmission channels of monetary policy now include the exchange rate. The major political effect is that the exchange rate has become a focus of concern for well-organized industries in the traded goods sector and, by extension, for Congress. This paper presents statistical evidence showing that the forces driving congressional activity on monetary policy have changed dramatically with the international financial integration of the U.S. economy. Exchange rates, as opposed to interest rates, now largely determine congressional attentiveness to monetary policy and the Federal Reserve.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Frances Hagopian
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: How do governments struggling to consolidate new democracies enact effective stabilization and adjustment policies, reform the public sector, and deregulate markets? And what has been the impact of economic liberalization on political institutions and systems of political representation? Treating economic and political transitions as mutually interdependent, this paper couples these questions to suggest a reformulation of the conventional wisdom about how economic liberalization proceeds and how political interests are determined. It challenges the assumption that neoliberal reform is most readily achieved in liberalizing polities when visionary political leaders surrounded by coherent economic teams with comprehensive programs in place act with a wide margin of autonomy from society. It also questions the contention that structures of political representation are the outgrowth of either economic organization or the product of state engineering. The paper makes two arguments. Its central argument is that economic reform is accomplished most readily when government reformers, acting through available clientelistic, corporatist, and party-based networks of mediation, negotiate the compliance of public and private sector representatives of social actors for the introduction of market-oriented reforms. They trade public resources or legislation favoring the representational status of political or social actors in the present for the agreement of those actors to accept diminished state resources for their organizations or constituents in the future. The use of specific networks of negotiation, moreover, influences the design of liberalization policies and helps to account for national differences in the pace and sequence of economic reform measures. The paper's second argument is that those systems of political representation that are strengthened as a result of the temporary advantages that accrue to them during the process of state retreat will endure even when they are incompatible with economic liberalism. This is so because the politicians and group leaders who manage these networks have the opportunity to design institutions that will allow them to accommodate themselves and adapt their power bases to economies in which the market plays a larger role.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Central America, North America
  • Author: Kellee S. Tsai
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Our country does not permit the establishment of private banks. We must continue to investigate and impose discipline on non-banking financial institutions and other creditors that charge high interest rates. This is clearly one of the most important measures for ensuring order in the entire financial system.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Devesh Kapur
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: In recent years, the World Bank has been at the vanguard in pressing for a circumscribed role for the State in developing countries. It therefore comes as somewhat of a surprise that the 1997 World Development Report (WDR - the World Bank's annual flagship publication), The State in a Changing World, underscores the continuing significance of the State in LDCs.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Organization, Third World
  • Author: Christina R. Sevilla
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Multilateral trade complaints are significant for politics because they serve as a stimulus for the targeted state to alter its status quo trade policy. This paper seeks to explain and predict patterns of multilateral trade complaints filed by states under the dispute settlement mechanism of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor as of 1995, the World Trade Organization (WTO). A two-level model of complaint-raising is proposed, which argues that variation in the design of GATT and WTO institutions affects the costs to governments of filing complaints -- such as bureaucratic costs, information costs, and opportunity costs -- and these costs in turn affect state strategies for domestic oversight of treaty compliance by one's trading partners. Specific hypotheses drawn from the model are tested against a data set of over 300 multilateral trade complaints, from 1948-1994 under the GATT and 1995-96 under the WTO.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $14.2 billion in October, from $14.4 billion (revised) in September as exports increased more than imports.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $14.0 billion in September, from $15.9 billion (revised) in August as exports increased and imports decreased.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: The Division of Science Resources Studies (SRS) of the National Science Foundation publishes the biennial report, National Patterns of R Resources. This report describes and analyzes current patterns of research and development (R) in the United States, in relation to the historical record and the reported R levels of other industrialized countries. For years in which the full report is not produced, current, annual statistics on national and international R trends are released in data updates like this one.
  • Topic: Economics, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government Statistics, Economic Statistics Briefing Room
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Economics, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: William H. Lewis, Edward Marks
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: So declared Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali in 1994. Indeed, peacekeeping emerged in the post-Cold War period as the "most prominent U.N. activity." The organization was freed of the shackles placed upon it by superpower rivalry, that heretofore had rendered U.N. machinery inoperative in coping with local crises and was suddenly becoming "the center of international efforts to deal with unresolved problems of the past decades as well as the array of present and future issues." Between 1988 and 1993, more than a dozen new peacekeeping operations were launched, involving more than 70,000 military and civilian personnel for field operations, at an annual cost to the United Nations in excess of $3 billion.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, International Organization
  • Author: David C. Gompert
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: China's emergence begs a fresh look at power in world affairs—more precisely, at how the spread of freedom and the integration of the global economy, due to the information revolution, are affecting the nature, concentration, and purpose of power. Perhaps such a look could improve the odds of responding wisely to China's rise.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Soviet Union
  • Author: Greg Hansen
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: Humanitarian action in the Caucasus is shaped by the political, social, and security contexts of the region which, in many ways, constitute a case study in the lasting legacies of forced migration and social engineering. Without discounting the historical underpinnings of conflict that often date back several centuries, fears of persecution and deeply-rooted feelings of injustice are contemporary sources of tension and have been overlaid and complicated in the past decade by profound upheaval in the economic, social, and political spheres. The collapse of the Soviet system left the economies of the region in tatters.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Russia, Soviet Union
  • Author: David Cortright, Larry Minear, Thomas G. Weiss, George A. Lopez, Julia Wagler
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: Increased concerns about the negative humanitarian consequences of multilateral sanctions have prompted calls for reform. Drawing upon expertise in both humanitarian activities and sanctions scholarship, the report by independent analysts offers a series of recommendations to the United Nations system for ameliorating the adverse humanitarian consequences of sanctions and making their implementation more effective and accountable. The authors call for greater transparency in the functioning of UN sanctions committees and urge that the present ad hoc policy be replaced by a more regime-like system characterized by agreed principles, rules, and procedures.
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Ian Smillie
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: This occasional paper explores the relationships between emergency and development assistance. These relationships are important because the development community has seen much of its investment eroded or negated in recent years by war and governmental collapse and because relief agencies have recognized the need for sustainable peace if their work is to have long-term significance. Understanding the connections is also important because of evidence that emergency assistance can be inappropriate or even dangerous and that development aid, like emergency assistance itself, has in some cases contributed to fueling and igniting conflict.
  • Political Geography: Kenya, United Nations
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: At the invitation of the government of the People's Republic of China, The Carter Center sent a delegation to observe village elections in China from March 2-15, 1998. In addition to evaluating nine village elections in Jilin and Liaoning provinces, the nine-person team, led by Carter Center Fellow Dr. Robert Pastor, reached a long-term agreement with the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) on election-related projects.
  • Topic: Civil War, Democratization, International Organization
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: William Stueck
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: "Transition" is surely the most hackneyed concept among commentators on Korea over the last decade. In this post-modern world of increasingly rapid change, it is fair to say that the Republic of Korea (ROK) is in a constant state of transition from one thing to something else. The two broad areas that most frequently appear in discussions of Korea's transition are economic and political development. In the first case, analysts trace the transition of the ROK from a backward, largely agrarian economy to an industrial and now even post-industrial powerhouse that competes at a high level in the world marketplace. In the latter case, scholars examine the transition from an authoritarian system to a democratic one. Until the economic slide of last fall and the subsequent election to and assumption of the presidency by former opposition leader Kim Dae Jung, most observers would have conceded that the political transition is at an earlier and more precarious stage than the economic. Kim's smooth rise to the ROK's highest office demonstrated powerfully that the way Koreans in the south conduct themselves politically has changed fundamentally over the last generation.
  • Political Geography: Korea
  • Author: Ilpyong J. Kim
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The visit of Jiang Zemin, president of the People's Republic of China (PRC), to the United States to meet with President Bill Clinton in October 1997, and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's meetings with Russian President BorisYeltsin and Chinese President Jiang, on November 10, changed the international environment. Hostilities among the major powers surrounding the Korean peninsula are being transformed by an atmosphere of reconciliation and confidence building.
  • Political Geography: Korea
  • Author: C. Kenneth Quinones
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: Sensational stories in the American and international press since mid-August have abruptly transformed North Korea from a feeble, impoverished nation on the verge of famine and political collapse into an awesome, secretive, irrational nuclear power. The New York Times on August 17 reported that "spy satellites have extensively photographed a huge work site 25 miles northeast of Yongbyon," North Korea's nuclear research facility. "Thousands of North Korean workers are swarming around the new site, burrowing into the mountainside, American officials said," the report continued. "Other intelligence," according to the same story, cites unidentified officials as saying that U.S. intelligence analysts told them "they believed that the North intended to build a new (nuclear) reactor and reprocessing center under the mountain."
  • Political Geography: New York, America, North Korea
  • Author: David I. Steinberg
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: Since 1987 presidential elections have been the defining political moments in Korea. Although local elections may be more illustrative of the democratic process, for it is that level at which citizens are in intimate contact with their government and gauge its effectiveness, presidential elections command more attention because of the nature of Korean political culture. The Korean president has been half king, half chief executive. The cabinet has been his plaything, changeable at his whim; the legislature to date at most a modest thorn in his side. His phalanx of staff in the Blue House (the presidential residence) rarely questions his decisions. In his society he is far more powerful than the president of the United States is in his. There is no vice president in Korea.
  • Political Geography: United States, Korea
  • Author: Hugo Wheegook Kim
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The South Korean economy has been highly praised by foreign economists as a successful model of development and proudly joined OECD in late 1996 as the world's eleventh-largest economy, with per capita annual income of over $10,000. Since then, a series of business bankruptcies and a financial crisis resulting in the imposition of IMF supervision on December 3,1997, has caused a shift in political power. The new administration began to work for systemic reforms, which have been interrupted by the political opposition, the entrenched chaebols, and labor unions.
  • Political Geography: South Korea
  • Author: Hong Nack Kim
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The South Korean political system has undergone drastic changes since the establishment of the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 1948. Following the authoritarian Syngman Rhee regime (1948-1960), South Korea had to endure over a quarter-century of military rule, from 1961 to 1987. In the wake of massive student demonstrations against the Chun Doo Hwan regime in 1987, the historic June 29th declaration was issued to accommodate popular demands for the democratization of the political system. It promised drastic democratic reforms, including popular direct election of the president. Following the presidential election of 1987, South Korea embarked on a new era of democratic politics.
  • Political Geography: South Korea, Korea
  • Author: Ilpyong J. Kim, Dong Suh Bark
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: After three decades of military rule in South Korea, civilian democratic government was inaugurated in 1992 with direct election of the president. The political culture in South Korea, therefore, is still in the process of developing; and the transformation from authoritarian to democratic politics may take a long time.
  • Political Geography: South Korea
  • Author: Hang Yul Rhee
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: The spectacular performance, until recently, of East Asia's emerging economies, popularly known as the Asian tigers, has fueled wild speculation in the West about the so-called "Asian Century." "Never before in world history," noted the Economist in March 1997, "has any region sustained such rapid growth for so long." The GDP per capita of Taiwan ($13,200) and South Korea ($11,900) were already impressive enough in 1997 to place them at the gate of the advanced industrialized nations of the world. Japan, of course, has long been an acknowledged super-economy, often said to have led the flock of economic "flying geese" before they turned into what Chung-In Moon ten years ago called the "swarming sparrows" in Asia. Then suddenly last summer, seemingly as if from the blue, came the financial crisis in Pacific Asia. In reality, however, it followed what had been a decade-long period of sclerosis in the Japanese economy.
  • Political Geography: Japan, East Asia, Asia, South Korea
  • Author: Gon Namkung
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: International Journal of Korean Studies
  • Institution: International Council on Korean Studies
  • Abstract: To provide a better picture of Korean-American attitudes toward the unification of the two Koreas in this essay, I have employed a more definitive assessment of the generation gap in Korean-Americans' attitudes toward Korean unification issues. By using a regression analysis of survey data, this study reports and explores the intergenerational gap in perceptions of Korean unification among Korean-Americans. In operational terms, I seek to understand the generation gap by employing a multi-regression analysis of Korean- American postures on various issues concerning Korean unification. A regression analysis permits analysis of age groups without the need for panel data. It is proposed that intergenerational contrasts emerge on a number of Korean unification issues. I assume that the younger Korean-American generation tends to hold different views from those of their elders about the two Koreas and their unification. The purposes of this study are: (1) to identify socioeconomic characteristics of the younger Korean-American age groups by comparing their responses on various social values to those of their elders, (2) to develop and to test some hypotheses concerning plausible impacts that this intergenerational population replacement in the Korean-American community has on its members' postures toward the unification of their motherland, and (3) to present major findings and suggest some policy implications.
  • Political Geography: America, Korea
  • Author: Francesca di Mauro
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Karel Lannoo
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The agreement reached in the Council of EU Finance Ministers (Ecofin) on 1 December 1997 on taxation policy can be considered as a landmark in EU direct tax harmonisation. The Council agreed on a package of measures to combat harmful tax competition in the EU, including a code of conduct on corporate taxation and elements which should enable the Commission to draft a new proposal for a directive on the taxation of income from savings. The Council invited the Taxation Policy Group to continue its work and instituted a Review Group to assess harmful tax competition. The first and, until now, last EU measures in the area of direct taxation date back to 1990. These abolished double taxation between enterprises of the same group.
  • Topic: Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Michael E. OHanlon, Jerre Wilson
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Today's U.S. military is about one-third smaller and one-third less expensive than it was at the end of the Cold War. Even so, on a unit-by-unit basis it is as good as the U.S. armed forces of Ronald Reagan's presidency. It is far from hollow; its readiness to carry out a wide range of operations from warfighting to peacekeeping to deterrence remains quite good on the whole.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Toby F. Dalton
  • Publication Date: 04-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: In a front-page story on April 21, 1998, The New York Times broke the news of Auburn Endeavor, a secret U.S.-British operation to airlift fissile material from a nuclear research facility in Tbilisi, Georgia. This operation seems to be another success for the U.S. Departments of Defense and Energy in preventing the transfer of nuclear weapons, material or technology to nuclear weapons aspirants.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: New York
  • Author: Ivan Eland
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: According to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, terrorism is the most important threat the United States and the world face as the 21st century begins. High-level U.S. officials have acknowledged that terrorists are now more likely to be able to obtain and use nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons than ever before.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Steve H. Hanke
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The devaluation of the Russian ruble this year was predictable, especially considering Russia's poor monetary history. State-manipulated money has been a Russian hallmark since the time of Peter the Great and shows that the country's money problems are endemic and do not depend on who controls the central bank. Czarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet governments have used the central bank printing press to finance deficit spending, resulting in high inflation, confiscation of savings, capital controls, or a combination of the three.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Anna J. Schwartz
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund are undemocratic institutions unaccountable for their actions. Their current functions have little to do with their original missions. The ESF is used by the executive branch to circumvent Congress in the provision of foreign aid. Its foreign exchange interventions have, in any event, always been wasteful and ineffective at controlling the relative price of the U.S. dollar. The IMF has also been used to provide massive bailouts in the cases of Mexico in 1995 and of Asian countries since 1997. Defenders of the IMF as an international lender of last resort are misinformed since the IMF does not and cannot serve that purpose. Both institutions should be abolished, not reformed, because they are not needed to resolve currency crises and they preclude superior solutions.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, Mexico
  • Author: John D. Macomber, Charles McC. Mathias
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Can the United States collaborate with foreign nations in armaments development and production without jeopardizing US national security? This question - in light of America's global security obligations - demands a satisfactory answer. The economic and political advantages of greater international cooperation are significant. Benefits from cooperation include improved interoperability of weapons and equipment used by US allies and partners in operations with the United States, reduction in production costs, and preservation of a defense industrial base among US allies. Yet, considerations of national security are equally cogent.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The provided an overview of the Indian economy. This issue will focus on three key sectors: industry, the financial sector, and agriculture. The three sectors, while seemingly unrelated, are key to India's future. Indian industry is undergoing unprecedented change as a result of the deregulation process begun in 1991, the recent downturn in the domestic economy, and the crisis in Asia. Established industries are being challenged and new ones are emerging.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Tim Forsyth
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: This workshop was arranged by the RIIA under the sponsorship of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) of Japan to explore ways of increasing international investment in renewable energy technology in Asia. Enhancing renewable energy investment is clearly relevant to global strategies to mitigate climate change. However, the two debates on climate change policy and renewable energy investment have largely remained separate, and characterized by tendencies to discuss large-scale global flows of energy and investment on the one hand, and local development-oriented practice on the other. The workshop attempted to integrate these two debates, and therefore form part of a growing body of knowledge to inform the current climate change negotiations with practical options available to small and large businesses. The workshop had three main aims: to identify the implications of the Kyoto Protocol for international renewable energy investment; to define technology transfer and identify how it may be increased for renewable energy in South and Southeast Asia; to assess what public and private forms of finance could be sought to ensure the success of renewable energy businesses in South and Southeast Asia. The workshop was attended by some 30 industrialists, financiers and renewable energy specialists from around the world. This paper is a summary of the proceedings. In order to encourage frank exchange, the workshop was held under Chatham House Rule of confidentiality and anonymity, so individual speakers are not named.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Jesmond Blumenfeld
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: As South Africa approaches its second inclusive elections in 1999, the government's economic record will come under increasing scrutiny. Against widespread expectations of a post-apartheid transformation in economic performance, the country's achievements in output, investment and employment have been profoundly disappointing. The adoption of a new, and more market- and investor-friendly, macroeconomic strategy in 1996 boosted confidence by promising major structural and policy reforms, but this has since been undermined by failure to meet most of the strategy's targets. In this Briefing Paper, Jesmond Blumenfeld analyses the origins, content and outcomes of the strategy as well as the economic and political dilemmas that it has created.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: South Africa, New Delhi
  • Author: Ralph Negrine
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The last decade of the 20th century has apparently seen a profound change in the way in which European media handle their reporting of the political process. It is a process which marks an end to the formality and sense of obligation with which parliamentary debates and the activities of individual politicians have traditionally been treated. It has been paralleled by far-reaching changes in the ways in which politicians seek to influence their electorate. This briefing paper summarizes the findings of a comprehensive study that attempts to quantify what these changes in presentation of news and information might really mean.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Abiodun Alao
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Prior to the recent controversy over the transfer of arms, little international attention was devoted to Sierra Leone. Even its civil war, which is at the root of the matter, did not attract any significant attention outside West Africa, despite the fact that it had claimed nearly 50,000 lives. Although its enormous diamond deposits have always attracted some interest, this has been limited to private companies and individual entrepreneurs. Many Sierra Leoneans believe that had there been sustained concern about the predicament of their country, the entire arms controversy might have been avoided. This briefing paper does not, however, attempt to delve into the complexities surrounding the sale of arms to Sierra Leone and deals only tangentially with the role of mercenaries that has been the subject of so much scrutiny. Rather, it traces the major events leading to the civil war that began in March 1991, bringing with it immense suffering for this impoverished nation. This is a tale of intrigue and power struggles that has involved most of the West African region, and has allowed unscrupulous actors from as far afield as South Africa, Britain and the United States to dabble in the affairs of this country. It is a salutary lesson in the lack of concern about the fate of small nations in the post-Cold War era.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, South America
  • Author: George Joffé
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The current situation in Algeria is the direct result of a crisis that developed in the wake of the country-wide riots in 1988 and appeared to have been resolved by political and economic reform up to 1992. Despite a brief period of political liberalization — which, in reality was unsuccessfully manipulated by the regime in power to guarantee its own survival — Algeria has been in the grip of a virtual civil war for the past five years. In these circumstances, the behaviour of the regime and of its clandestine opposition have become parallel experiences, despite the gestures towards renewed democratization made in the past two years. The reality for the vast majority of Algerians — with figures for civilian deaths to date ranging from 50,000 to 120,000— is one of constant fear, both of arbitrary arrest and worse from the authorities and of summary and terminal justice from the clandestine opposition. For these circumstances to be properly appreciated, therefore, some knowledge of the events leading up to the contemporary situation is necessary.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Algeria, Hiroshima
  • Author: Jonathan Krueger
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The international community is increasingly turning to the use of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) to solve problems of global environmental degradation and transboundary pollution. One of the most important of these MEAs is the 1989 Basel Convention dealing with transboundary movements of hazardous waste. The Convention has been instrumental in helping to eliminate the dumping of industrialized countries' hazardous wastes on developing countries. However, the development of the regime has been slow and it is now tackling the more controversial issue of regulating 'recyclable' hazardous wastes. This briefing paper provides a short guide to the development and current status of the international effort to manage transboundary movements of hazardous wastes.
  • Topic: Environment, International Organization, Science and Technology
  • Author: Haruko Satoh
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Among the now G–8 countries, perhaps the most stable political relationship in the past decade or so has been between Britain and Japan. While the two countries do not necessarily rank high in each other's foreign policy priorities, their leaders have always made sure publicly to endorse the growing ties in strong and positive language. Prime Minister Tony Blair used the occasion of his official visit to Tokyo this January to echo Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto's own positive views of the relationship, expressed to Blair at the G–8 summit in Denver. To Hashimoto's 'Britain is a special partner to Japan', Blair confirmed that UK–Japan relations were 'as strong as ever', in line with the remarks of his predecessors, which had ranged from a 'dynamic, plain-speaking partnership', 'strategic partnership' in the post-Cold War era, to 'natural partnership'. Furthermore, compared with Japan's relations with other major European states, specifically France and Germany, the contours of UK–Japan relations seem to stand out more. There is a strong economic relationship between the two. The UK–Japan Action Agenda of September 1996 was the first of its kind to be agreed between Japan and a European state, reflecting Britain's resolve to be the 'outward looking' member in the EU, and to keep ahead in the primarily economic competition for Japanese interest in Europe. Cooperation between the two countries has been credited as the key to success in some post-Cold War multilateral agreements, such as the UN arms register or the recent Kyoto conference on global warming, here reflecting the scope of official cooperation between the two governments. This track record supports the leaders' claims that Britain and Japan are special partners. Nevertheless, there is a sense that the relationship is still bound in the realm of political rhetoric. Neither the positive language nor the track record of achievements can dispel the perception that Europe—Japan relations are the weakest in the trilateral world of Europe, Japan and the United States. The Hague Declaration of 1991 — a document outlining further commitment to cooperation between Japan and the EU — the UK–Japan Action agenda, and the subsequent similar documents between Japan and France or Germany, have only received cursory attention. 2 While UK–Japan relations may be the key to genuinely strengthening Europe—Japan ties, there are issues that need to be addressed to promote further progress.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Japan, United Kingdom, Malaysia, Netherlands
  • Author: Volker Perthes
  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: In the early months of 1998, the outlook for relations between Iraq and the West looked distinctly bleak. The crisis over UN inspections of Iraq's potential to create weapons of mass destruction began in November 1997 with the Iraqi government's attempt to control the make-up of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspection teams on the grounds that the Anglo-American components of them were, in effect, spies came to a head in February 1998 when the United States and Britain insisted on full, unrestricted compliance with all UN sanctions under the threat of military action. Even though Iraq reluctantly acquiesced in Western demands, little thought appeared to be given in American and British planning to what the consequence of such action would be on Iraqis themselves and on Iraqi public opinion.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, International Law, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Keun-Wook Paik, Jae-Yong Choi
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The lack of indigenous oil and gas resources in Northeast Asia is a real obstacle to the region's economic development, and the region has paid the price. The importance of the introduction of pipeline gas into Northeast Asia lies not only in diversifying supply sources but also in providing price leverage for the region's consumers. Despite many implementation problems, the Sino-Russian agreement on East Siberian gas and pipeline development laid a firm basis for the introduction of pipeline gas into the region, and this could fundamentally affect the region's energy supply balance in the coming decades. The introduction of pipeline gas will open a new era of multilateral cooperation in the region. It is now no longer a matter of whether but when and how this gas will be introduced. Northeast Asia — comprising China, Russian Asia (Siberia and the Far East), Korea and Japan — forms the world's biggest market for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Out of world trade totalling just over 100 bcm in 1996, 63.8 bcm was imported by Japan and 13 bcm by Korea, together representing 75% of the world total. Given that China is set to import both LNG and pipeline gas in the next decade, there will be further rapid growth in the region's demand for gas. Many questions about the scale of expansion, the introduction of pipeline gas as a part of the expansion, the role of natural gas in power generation, and the establishment of multilateral cooperation for the pipeline development remain unresolved. Nevertheless, recent announcements by CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) of two contracts signed with the Kazakstan government for the development of oilfields for transport via pipeline to western China are a strong signal that the Northeast Asian region is set to witness the introduction of long-distance pipeline oil. In the longer term, these developments may be eclipsed by the development of pipeline gas. This paper briefly reviews the potential gas and oil supply sources to the Northeast Asian region and recent developments, together with the problems that need to be tackled for early implementation of pipeline gas. After presenting the results of a unique survey on the views of both Japanese and Korean companies on the Northeast Asian natural gas market and the development of long-distance pipelines, the paper discusses the implications of such developments.
  • Topic: Development, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, East Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Publication Date: 12-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-1998
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States