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2. China’s Impact on Conflict Dynamics in the Red Sea Arena
- Author:
- USIP China-Red Sea Arena Senior Study Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Red Sea arena—which this report defines as the eastern and western shores of the Red Sea, from the Arabian Peninsula to Egypt and the Horn of Africa, and the strategic waterways that run between, including the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal—has long been a center of political turbulence, regional rivalries, and geopolitical interest. Historic political transitions currently underway in Sudan and Ethiopia, burgeoning economic investments amid fragility and debt in the Horn, continued conflict and humanitarian crisis in Yemen, Middle Eastern rivalries and their impact on regional conflict dynamics, and the growing presence of China have further heightened geopolitical interest in this arena. This report focuses on China’s influence and activities in the region and its relationships with twelve Red Sea arena states: Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Red Sea
3. Myanmar’s Casino Cities: The Role of China and Transnational Criminal Networks
- Author:
- Jason Tower and Priscilla Clapp
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Seeking to profit from China's lucrative but illegal gambling market, a shady web of actors has begun building resort cities in Myanmar’s Karen State to cater to Chinese gamblers. This report casts light on the actors behind Myanmar’s illegal gambling sector, their linkages to Chinese government entities and to Myanmar's armed groups and military, and how their actions could upend Myanmar’s prospects for peace.
- Topic:
- Crime, Economics, Transnational Actors, Gambling, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
4. Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies
- Author:
- David Michel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- No modern states have ever declared war over water. In fact, nations dependent on shared water sources have collaborated far more frequently than they have clashed. Nevertheless, global surveys have counted over forty hostile, militarized international actions over water—from riots to border skirmishes to larger battles—in the first six decades after World War II. This report reviews the pathways that link water resource pressures to conflict risks and describes how peacebuilding strategies such as water diplomacy can help mitigate these risks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. Strategic Implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
- Author:
- James Schwemlein
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Great power politics is resurgent in South Asia today. China’s growing military ambition in the region is matched in financial terms by its Belt and Road Initiative, the largest and most advanced component of which is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. What remains unclear is how the United States should navigate the new dynamic. This report, which is based on research and consultations with experts worldwide, addresses the question of how the India-Pakistan rivalry will play into the emerging great power competition.
- Topic:
- Economics, Power Politics, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America
6. Nigeria’s Movement for Transparency and Accountability: Bringing the Pieces Together
- Author:
- Samson Itodo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Since the demise of its military dictatorship in the late 1990s, Nigeria has made remarkable democratic progress. Still, widespread corruption bedevils the country—which in many respects presents its biggest policy challenge and its biggest threat to stability and development. Drawing on a workshop held in Abuja as well as on in-depth interviews with civil society leaders and others, this report analyzes the undercelebrated but unique contributions of an emerging movement for transparency and accountability, the scope of international funding and training, and how this support affects the effectiveness of civil society efforts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Environment, Governance, Social Movement, Democracy, Accountability, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
7. The Conflict Resource Economy and Pathways to Peace in Burma
- Author:
- Kevin M. Woods
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Burma’s natural resource economy is inextricably tied to the ongoing armed conflict within the country. Questions of who has what ownership rights over what resources and how these resources can be more equitably shared with the wider population loom large. This report focuses on Burma’s resource-rich ethnic states and territories near the borders with China and Thailand and suggests that a more robust, accountable, and equitable system for managing the country’s resource wealth can help lay down the pathways to peace.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- China, Burma, Thailand, and Southeast Asia
8. Afghanistan's Continuing Fiscal Crisis: No End In Sight
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- For several years, Afghanistan’s economy and public finances have worsened, culminating in a full-blown fiscal crisis in 2014. Political uncertainties, the weakening Afghan economy, corruption in tax collection, stagnant government revenues, and increasing expenditures have contributed to the current fiscal impasse. In the absence of bold actions by the Afghan government along with proactive international support to turn around the fiscal situation, the fiscal crisis and its insidious effects will continue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
9. The Future of Afghanistan-Pakistan Trade Relations
- Author:
- Ishrat Husain and Muhammad Ather Elahi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Pakistan and Afghanistan are among each other’s largest trading partners. Though an agreement was signed in 2010 to strengthen trade relations and facilitate Afghan transit trade through Pakistan, implementation has been mixed, with many on both sides of the border complaining of continued barriers to exchange. Both nations need to improve trade facilitation through streamlined payments settlement and improved insurance mechanisms, the use of bonded carriers, visa issuance, trade financing, tax collection, and documentation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Afghanistan
10. Reviving Afghanistan's Economy
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Some say reviving the Afghan economy in a time of intensifying violent conflict and declining external financial inflows will be impossible. Expectations need to be kept modest, and measures must go beyond conventional economic approaches in order to be effective. This brief puts forward some outside-the-box ideas, which, combined with greater government effectiveness and, hopefully, reductions in violent conflict, may help turn the economy around.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
11. Afghan Economic Policy, Institutions and Society Since 2001
- Author:
- Paul Fishstein and Murtaza Edries Amiryar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The general expectation among Afghans after the fall of the Taliban was that the state, equipped with financial resources and technical assistance from the international community, would once again take the lead in the economic sphere. Instead, Kabul adopted a market economy. The move remains controversial in some quarters. This report, derived from interviews conducted in 2015 and 2010, takes stock of the competing ideologies in Afghanistan today with respect to the economy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
12. Maximizing the Impact of Aid to Pakistan: Leverage Reform and Local Capacity
- Author:
- Richard Albright
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The effectiveness of U.S. civilian assistance to Pakistan depends on sustained funding commitments from the United States and sustained commitment to economic and institutional reform from Pakistan. Weak public institutions and poor governance have greatly impeded Pakistan's development. U.S. assistance should focus on strengthening institutions systemically. Direct assistance to the Pakistani government—through financing that supports specific reform programs and policy initiatives and cash-on-delivery mechanisms that offer assistance after agreed performance criteria are met—could incentivize Pakistani public institutions to improve service delivery. Pakistan's devolution of authority to the provinces offers an opportunity for well-targeted and cost-effective initiatives to incentivize improvements in provincial public service delivery in such areas as basic education, health and policing.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
13. Afghanistan's Looming Fiscal Crisis: What Can Be Done?
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan faces a fiscal crisis that reflects worsening domestic revenue shortfalls since 2011, which could reach $1 billion in 2014 compared with the 2011 outlook. The massive theft and fraud at Kabul Bank, failure of mining activities to pay taxes and royalties, and mislabeling of some commercial imports as duty-free are among other contributing factors. Turning the fiscal crisis around will take time, but a legitimate, credible new Afghan government coming into office is essential. Quality leadership and management teams in the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will be crucial for success. Urgent measures are needed to turn around poor revenue performance, including strong signals from the top, possible exploitation of limited new revenue sources, and cooperation among different agencies to reduce smuggling and contain revenue leakages. Accelerated recovery of stolen and lost Kabul Bank assets should be a priority, which could provide over $100 million per year of extra fiscal space for the budget. Reforms of the revenue system need to be initiated, including introduction of a value-added tax, and possibly reform of the revenue and customs services. Expenditures will need to be cut. This requires the elimination of unnecessary and wasteful expenditures as well as the meaningful prioritization of programs within a tight resource envelope. Additional international fiscal support will be needed to help stabilize the budget in the short run. Linking aid for the Afghan discretionary budget to increases in domestic revenues and Kabul Bank recoveries would make sense.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
14. Exploitation of Mineral Resources in Afghanistan Without Government Revenues or Development Benefits
- Author:
- William A. Byrd and Javed Noorani
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Case studies of five ongoing mining operations show that Afghan mining companies are wantonly exploiting easily extractable mineral resources with little or no taxes and royalties going to the government. Revenue losses from just two sources —royalties and land rent —at the five mines are more than US$50 million per year. Total revenue losses from all sources for the hundreds of mines contracted to different companies easily could be hundreds of millions of dollars annually. The tendering processes, awards, and contents of contracts issued, contract implementation, and actual operations at the mines all showed clear signs of political interference, favoring bidders that often had no prior mining experience. Companies usually began extracting resources soon after mining contracts were awarded, without paying any taxes and royalties —even though the contract called for an initial exploration period. Companies did not provide the legally and contractually required documents, such as exploration reports and environmental and social impact assessments. Effective inspections of mines were not conducted, and companies were not held accountable for payments due. Sometimes mining activities precipitated local conflicts, resulting in violence and deaths; weaker local communities called on Taliban elements for support in one such dispute. Serious reforms are needed to ensure that mining activities are developmentally beneficial and that revenues generated are paid to the government.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Taliban
15. Rethinking Afghan Local Governance Aid After Transition
- Author:
- Frances Z. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The conclusion of the U.S.-led "surge" of 2009 onward and the closure of provincial recon¬struction teams and other local civil-military installations have affected how aid is delivered in Afghanistan's more remote and contested areas. The time is ripe for a recalibration of donor approaches to local governance and development in areas previously targeted by the surge. Specifically, foreign stakeholders should reexamine three central principles of their previous subnational governance strategy. First, donors should revise their conception of assisting service delivery from the previous approach, which often emphasized providing maximal inputs in a fragmented way, to a more restrained vision that stresses predictability and reliability and acknowledges the interlinked nature of politics, justice, and sectoral services in the eyes of the local population. Second, donors should reframe their goal of establishing linkages between the Afghan govern¬ment and population by acknowledging that the main obstacles to improving center-periph¬ery communication and execution are often political and structural rather than technical. Third, donors should revise the way they define, discuss, and measure local governance prog¬ress in contested areas, away from favoring snapshots of inputs and perceptions and toward capturing longer-term changes on the ground in processes, structures, and incentives. The coming political and development aid transition provides an overdue opportunity for Afghan governance priorities to come to the fore. At the same time, the ever growing chasm between Kabul's deliberations on the one hand and local governance as experienced in more remote, insurgency-wracked areas on the other presents renewed risks. In the short term, donors let the air out of the aid bubble carefully. In the long term, resolving Afghanistan's local governance challenges continues to demand sustained commitment and systematic execution.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
16. Pathway to National Dialogue in Sudan
- Author:
- Jon Temin and Princeton N. Lyman, Ph.D.
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Sudan urgently needs to embark on a national dialogue and reform process that is led by Sudanese and supported by the international community. The process should be broadly inclusive, involving elements of the current regime, Islamists, and all armed and unarmed opposition groups. Any meaningful process will be lengthy, likely requiring years to complete. If a genuine, inclusive process is underway, elections in 2015 may need to be delayed. The African Union High-Level Implementation Panel has a critical role to play in advocating for and guiding such a process.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
17. Changing Financial Flows During Afghanistan's Transition: The Political Economy Fallout
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Massive amounts of money flowing into Afghanistan since 2001 (foreign military spending, aid, domestic revenues, opium profits, land takeovers and development, informal mineral exploitation, theft of funds such as at Kabul Bank) have had profound political economy impacts, not least by further entrenching factionalized politics and fragmented patronage networks. The ongoing transition involving the drawdown of international troops and Afghan takeover of security responsibilities will be accompanied by drastic declines in international military expenditures and aid. Total resources for patronage will fall sharply; the Afghan government's share in remaining funds will increase; declines will be greatest at local levels, especially in insecure areas in the south/east which had heavy international military presence and high aid; and drug money will become increasingly important. At lower levels of patronage, competition over declining resources may intensify, so even in the absence of major armed conflict at the national level, localized conflicts may continue and even proliferate, aggravated by taking revenge and “settling accounts” by currently excluded and marginalized groups.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Economics, Islam, Foreign Aid, Narcotics Trafficking, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
18. Common Strategies for Women in Transition Countries
- Author:
- Steven E. Steiner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Ongoing dialogues and forums on nations in transition reinforce the commonality of challenges related to women's rights and roles in society, especially leadership in government. Women leaders in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Arab Spring countries face major challenges, including heightened insecurity and the risk of women's rights being rolled back significantly. Steps to address these challenges are to build coalitions across internal divides, engage male religious leaders and other men to support women's rights, reach out to youth, develop gender-based budgeting, and underscore the importance of women's economic empowerment. Keys to progress in these areas include obtaining grassroots support and taking a long-term strategic focus in international programs.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Government, Labor Issues, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Arabia
19. Extractive Industries and Peacebuilding in Afghanistan: The Role of Social Accountability
- Author:
- Sadaf Lakhani
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- While Afghanistan's economy has experienced strong growth in the past decade, declining levels of overseas development assistance beginning in 2014 are expected to substantially reduce the country's economic growth rate, with attendant political implications.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Natural Resources, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
20. Political Economy and Conflict Dimensions of Afghanistan's Mineral Resources: A Preliminary Exploration
- Author:
- William Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan has sizable underground mineral resources, which have potential positive economic impacts but also possible downsides—the so-called “resource curse” often involving negative macroeconomic, developmental, fiscal, governance, political and conflict effects. The success of the broader political transition in coming years as well as regional geopolitical factors will have a major influence on prospects for Afghanistan's underground resources. For “mega-resources” such as the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron deposits, the Afghan government has conducted credible tendering to ensure that contracts with foreign companies are on favorable terms for Afghanistan. Good-practice approaches for mega-resources should continue and be further strengthened, but there will probably be further delays in exploitation, and realization of potential will take much time. Exploitation of other largish and medium-sized resources may involve joint ventures with politically-connected Afghan firms and deals with local strongmen, or sometimes criminal networks with linkages to corrupt officials and insurgents. Spreading patronage can reduce short-run conflict risks, but there are risks of corruption, and conflicts could arise over time. For these resources, priorities include transparent contracting and clarity about ownership of companies; setting basic financial parameters for different resources (e.g. royalty rates) to reduce the risk of overly favorable arrangements for extracting entities; and addressing criminal elements and associated corruption. For smaller, concentrated, high-value resources (notably gemstones), informal exploitation using crude techniques is typically combined with illicit export trade, and local strongmen are involved, which can mean periods of stability but also conflicts when bargains are reopened or new actors get involved. The way forward for these resources includes gradually improving and regularizing the framework; setting low royalty rates to encourage formalization of existing activities rather than leasing resources to outsiders; technical assistance to promote more effective extraction; and encouraging processing and value addition within Afghanistan. Finally, further analytical work is required to better understand the political economy and conflict ramifications of mining in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
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