Publishing Institution: United States Institute of Peace / Journal:

501. Media and Conflict: Afghanistan as a Relative Success Story

Author:: Yll Bajraktari and Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The development of media in post-Taliban Afghanistan has been relatively successful (compared with both the Taliban regime and other countries subject to international intervention) in establishing free and responsible expression despite the lack of electricity, harsh terrain, absence of viable media outlets during the Taliban regime, and a conservative religious society that subordinates women. However, Afghanistan's media development remains incomplete. Since it still faces many challenges, the international community must continue to assist and support it.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Education
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban

502. Conflict-Sensitive Approach to Infrastructure Development

Author:: Merriam Mashatt, Major General Daniel Long, and James Crum
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Infrastructure development is the foundation of a sustainable economy and a means to achieving broader nation-building goals. Providing basic services is critical to security, governance, economic development, and social well-being. U.S. military forces have improved planning and coordination mechanisms and have created doctrine, planning processes, and training exercises that are shared by all branches of the military. This type and level of coordination mechanism is necessary for civilian and military coordination, as well, and progress is starting to be made in this important area. The complexity of the Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) often results in missed opportunities to act quickly in restoring essential services. Contracting officers are often reluctant to take chances in expediting infrastructure contracts due to concerns about violating the FAR. Simplified contracting, use of smaller projects, and reach - back support are three ways to ensure fleeting opportunities are not lost. In conflict-sensitive environments, the condition of infrastructure is often a barometer of whether a society will slip further into violence or make a peaceful transition out of the conflict cycle. The rapid restoration of essential services, such as water, sanitation, and electricity, assists in the perception of a return to normalcy and contributes to the peace process. According to James I. Wasserstrom, head of the Office for Oversight of Publicly- Owned Enterprises (utilities) in the United Nations Mission in Kosovo, infrastructure adds “arms and legs” to strategies aimed at winning “hearts and minds.” Infrastructure is fundamental to moving popular support away from prewar or during-conflict loyalties and to moving spoilers in favor of postwar political objectives. This U.S. Institute of Peace Special Report presents a model that links the infrastructure cycle with conflict analysis. This model is helpful to focus the attention of the infrastructure program planners and implementers on the conflict cycle. In many instances, infrastructure experts approach problems from an engineering perspective. While this view is important, it must be married with an appreciation of the conflict dynamic. Indeed, traditional engineering concerns, such as efficiency, are secondary in a conflict-sensitive approach.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: United States and Kosovo

503. Higher Education and the Future of Iraq

Author:: Imad K. Harb
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Iraq's higher education sector has the potential to play an important role in overcoming the country's widening sectarian divides and fostering long-term peace and stability. As a leading actor within Iraq's civil society, it could offer an institutional venue for resolving the country's political, social, and economic problems while promoting respect for human rights and democratic principles both on campus and in the wider society. Iraq's universities flourished in the 1960s and 1970s. However, after the rise of Saddam Hussein to power in 1979, they gradually lost their intellectual dynamism and became increasingly politicized in the service of the regime. UN sanctions imposed after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 helped to isolate and impoverish the higher education sector. Universities, many of which were already in poor physical shape, were looted in the chaos that accompanied the invasion of 2003. Hundreds of millions of dollars are needed to rehabilitate campuses, but the budget for higher education is meager and most is earmarked for wages and salaries. Universities have also been hit hard by the violence that has followed the invasion. Hundreds of university professors and administrators have been killed and thousands have fled abroad. Meanwhile, sectarianism has begun to cast a dark shadow over student life. Campuses are highly politicized with student organizations vying, sometimes violently, for influence. There also has been an increase in religiosity and in efforts, especially in the south, to enforce veiling of women and separation of the sexes. The dismal situation is made worse by the fact that curriculum materials in all fields are in short supply, textbooks are outdated, administrative authority is overcentralized, new students are poorly prepared, and the teaching staff is inadequately trained. The international community has made a variety of efforts to support the rejuvenation of Iraq's universities by donating funds, providing expertise, and launching cooperative initiatives. International assistance has been helpful, but if the higher education sector is to reclaim its earlier dynamism and play a leading role in national reconstruction, it needs a comprehensive program of reform. Any package of reforms must emphasize the need to update and expand the curriculum. Universities should embrace new disciplines that will instruct students in conflict resolution, reconciliation, intercommunal tolerance, institution building, civil society development, women's studies, democracy, and human rights. Another pressing requirement is to give academics and students access to foreign scholars and publications through a series of international seminars and workshops and via a large-scale program of translating foreign-language books and journals into Arabic. Efforts must also be made to train faculty in new technologies and subjects and to increase the number of faculty who hold doctoral degrees. Foreign donors and governments should also offer scholarships abroad to Iraqi students and professors to help alleviate the burden of training a new class of university personnel. Like other public-sector institutions, higher education institutions are overcentralized and need more freedom to determine their own policies, procedures, and curricula. Iraqis cannot accomplish these reforms by themselves. They need the sustained support of foreign governments, international bodies, and non-governmental organizations if they are to demonstrate how universities in a divided society can play a leading role in promoting civic peace.
Topic:: Democratization, Education, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

504. Special Report No. 204: Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability

Author:: Jack A. Goldstone
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Preventing violent conflict requires early warning of likely crises so that preventive actions can be planned and taken before the onset of mass violence. For most of the post–World War II period, policymakers and intelligence agencies have relied on experts to make qualitative judgments regarding the risk of instability or violent changes in their areas of study. Yet the inability of such experts to adequately predict major events has led to efforts to use social and analytical tools to create more “scientific” forecasts of political crises. The advent of quantitative forecasting models that give early warning of the onset of political instability offers the prospect of major advances in the accuracy of forecasting over traditional qualitative methods. Because certain models have a demonstrated accuracy of over 80 percent in early identification of political crises, some have questioned whether such models should replace traditional qualitative analysis. While these quantitative forecasting methods should move to the foreground and play a key role in developing early warning tools, this does not mean that traditional qualitative analysis is dispensable. The best results for early warning are most likely obtained by the judicious combination of quantitative analysis based on forecasting models with qualitative analysis that rests on explicit causal relationships and precise forecasts of its own. Policymakers and analysts should insist on a multiple-method approach, which has greater forecasting power than either the quantitative or qualitative method alone. In this way, political instability forecasting is likely to make its largest advance over earlier practices.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and International Political Economy

505. Special Report No. 205: Why We Should Still Study the Cuban Missile Crisis

Author:: Michael Dobbs
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Some scholars have questioned the utility of studying the Cuban missile crisis as a model for executive decision making during times of crisis, arguing that it offers little guidance for policymakers today. Many accounts of the missile crisis are incomplete, inaccurate, and too narrowly focused on the “rational actors” at the center of the drama while overlooking the “irrational actors.” Nonetheless, the Cuban missile crisis remains the best-documented study of presidential decision making at a time of supreme national danger. It offers policymakers and students of history unique insights into the interplay between the debates in the Oval Office and fast-moving events in the rest of the world. For decades, the Cuban missile crisis has been studied and analyzed as a case study in presidential power and crisis management. It is better understood as an example of the limits of presidential power and the haphazard returns of crisis management. The missile crisis illustrates the sometimes pivotal role of personality in politics. Had someone else been president in October 1962, the outcome could have been very different.
Topic:: Cold War, International Political Economy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and Cuba

506. Special Report No. 206: Mullahs, Money, and Militias: How Iran Exerts Its Influence in the Middle East

Author:: Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Iran has been a significant player in the Middle East, influencing and being influenced by its neighbors since long before the advent of the petrodollar or the Islamic revolution of 1979. But in the past five years, Iran's regional power has expanded considerably. Benefit - ing from Bush administration policies—especially the toppling of Saddam Hussein—as well as record oil prices, Iran has deepened its relationships with militant factions in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine and accelerated a nuclear program that could give it the ability to make atomic weapons within the next few years. President Bush, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and other administration officials have repeatedly labeled Iran a major, if not the major, threat to U.S. interests and U.S. allies in the Middle East. Yet Iran's reach remains constrained by an open-ended U.S. military presence in the region, domestic weakness, and historic divisions between Arabs and Persians, Sunnis and Shiites, and among Shiites. Though happy to take advantage of power vacuums, Iran neither wants nor is able to recreate the Persian Empire, nor is it about to become a second Soviet Union. As Mohammad Atrianfar, a veteran publisher of Iranian reformist newspapers, said in a March interview in Tehran, “We are not going to stretch our legs beyond the capacity of our carpets.”
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

507. Special Report No. 207: Integrated Security Assistance: The 1207 Program

Author:: Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Section 1207 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of FY 2006 and FY 2007 authorized the Defense Department (DOD) to provide up to $200 million over two years in funds, services, and defense articles to the State Department (DOS) for security, reconstruction, and stabilization. The DOD transferred over $99 million in Section 1207 assistance to the DOS to fund projects in Haiti ($20m), Somalia ($25m), Nepal ($10m), Colombia ($4m), trans- Sahara Africa ($15m), Yemen ($8.8m), and Southeast Asia ($16.9m). Congress's intent in authorizing this program was to jump start the new State Department Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization. It was also to promote a “whole of government” approach to security-assistance programs. After two years' experience, publication of principles and guidelines for 1207 project applications should solve problems resulting from a lack of awareness of the program and confusion over leadership and application procedures. Adding USAID to the decision-making Technical Advisory Committee should remove the largest source of interagency tension that has troubled the program. Greater clarity is needed concerning the relative weight of the program's priorities, which include security, counterterrorism, stabilization, and reconstruction and avoiding the need to deploy U.S. military forces. There is a need for the DOD and DOS to provide additional resources to embassies that are expected to complete a relatively complicated application form. There is also a need for the DOD to streamline the provision of funds so the money arrives in real time before circumstances change and projects cannot be implemented. Ultimately, the DOS and DOD need to honor the intent of Congress and request that Congress appropriate funds directly to the DOS for these projects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Middle East, and Central America

508. Domestic Agencies in Reconstruction and Stabilization: The "4th D"

Author:: Merriam Mashatt and Bob Polk
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The “3 D's,” defense, diplomacy and development, have been pillars of U.S. government reconstruction and stabilization programs. Recently, however, the “4th D” – the domestic interagency community – has come into the picture. This USIPeace Briefing describes the distinct value the “4th D” adds to reconstruction and stabilization initiatives and how it can be integrated into the larger U.S. government community.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:: United States

509. Iraq After the Surge: Options and Questions

Author:: Daniel Serwer and Sam Parker
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Iraq remains a critical problem for the United States. Security has improved to roughly 2005 levels, and tentative political progress has been made, but there is no visible end to the U.S. commitment required to prevent Iraq from spinning out of control and threatening a widening war in the region. The Bush Administration and the Congress face difficult choices: How can the relative success during the period of the surge be prolonged and solidified? Should the drawdown continue? When will the Iraqi security forces be ready to take over? What can be done to accelerate political progress?
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

510. Resurrecting the Wall of Fear: The Human Rights Situation in Syria

Author:: Robert Grace
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Over the past several months, Syrian authorities have engaged in a harsh campaign of repression against leading dissidents and human rights activists. The crackdown, overshadowed by developments elsewhere in the region, has received scant media coverage in the U.S. and Europe. To shed light on recent developments in the Syrian political scene, USIP recently convened a public discussion on human rights in Syria, featuring the Institute's Radwan Ziadeh, Mona Yacoubian, and Steven Heydemann, and Joe Stork of Human Rights Watch. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes their presentations and the subsequent discussion.
Topic:: Human Rights and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

511. Kenya: Setting the Stage for Durable Peace?

Author:: Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The botched results from the December 27, 2007 presidential elections in Kenya sparked a wave of violence across the country that left more than 1,000 dead and 600,000 displaced. Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki, representing the ruling Party of National Unity (PNU), was declared the winner of the presidential polls over Raila Odinga, of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Supporters of the ODM, which had won 99 parliamentary seats against PNU's 43 (out of 210 elected seats), charged that the election had been rigged. The chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya has since stated that the PNU and the ODM-K (an allied party) forced him to call the election, even with irregularities in the tallying.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Politics
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

512. Is Liberia's Governance and Economic Management Assistance Program a "Necessary Intrusion?"

Author:: Raymond Gilpin and Emily Hsu
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Improving economic management after almost two decades of violent conflict and civil unrest has been a top priority of Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf's reform agenda since her January 2006 inauguration. In April 2008, her administration could point to appreciable improvements in fiscal performance and economic progress, signs that the desired enhancements in economic management may have started to materialize. Many observers speculate whether these developments could be attributed to the country's multi-stakeholder Governance and Economic Management Assistance Program (GEMAP). If so, what lessons could be learned for other post-conflict countries? At an April 9, 2008 USIP event on the subject, the Liberian Finance Minister, the Honorable Antoinette Sayeh, reflected on GEMAP's impact, highlighted some challenges and discussed its applicability as a model for other countries. While recognizing the program's contributions, she emphasized that it is only one component of a much broader framework of reforms initiated since 2006. Sayeh also underscored the vital leadership role that President Sirleaf has played in the design and implementation of Liberia's public expenditure reform program.
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: Africa and Liberia

513. Analyzing Iran's Domestic Political Landscape

Author:: Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The results of Iran's March 14, 2008 parliamentary elections-a 70 percent victory for conservatives within Iran-came as little surprise. The ruling elite disqualified approximately 1,700 reformist candidates before the elections, minimizing the risk of a conservative defeat. However, the results revealed a growing divide between conservatives allied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a "third way" movement led by pragmatic conservatives who, though loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, are critical of Ahmadinejad's economic policies and confrontational rhetoric with the West. The surprising electoral success of these pragmatic conservatives may pose a significant challenge to Ahmadinejad in Iran's 2009 presidential elections.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

514. Iraq's Interior Ministry: Frustrating Reform

Author:: Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In December 2006, the Iraq Study Group reported that the Iraqi Interior Ministry (MOI) was confronted by corruption, infiltrated by militia and unable to control the Iraqi police. In July 2007, the Los Angeles Times reported that Iraq's MOI had become a "federation of oligarchs" where various floors of the building were controlled by rival militia groups and organized criminal gangs. The report described the MOI as an eleven-story powder keg of factions where power struggles were settled by assassinations in the parking lot. In its September 2007 report, the congressionally mandated Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq described Iraq's MOI as a ministry in name only, dysfunctional, sectarian and suffering from ineffective leadership. Even Iraq's Interior Minister, Jawad al-Boulani, has called for the comprehensive reform of his ministry.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

515. Half Full or Half Empty: Assessing Prospects for Peace in Lebanon

Author:: Alistair Harris
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On the surface, peace has broken out in Lebanon, bringing to an end the 18-month political impasse between the governing March 14th coalition and opposition March 8th parties. Following a week of sectarian violence in Beirut, Tripoli and the Chouf mountains—the worst since the end of Lebanon's 15-year civil war in 1990—the opposing sides agreed to undertake talks in Qatar to resolve their longstanding political stalemate. The Qatari-sponsored Doha Accord that broke the logjam paved the way for the May 25 election of former Army Commander Michel Suleiman as a consensus president, to be closely followed by the formation of a national unity government and the adoption of a revised election law. The re-invigoration of Lebanon's political institutions, the opening of parliament and ending of the presidential vacuum are welcome signs of a return to what passes for normalcy among Lebanon's confessional elites; they are not however a return to the status quo ante. For many months Arab League Chairman Amr Moussa, like French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, had tried to cajole the Lebanese belligerents into a compromise deal based on the much-vaunted concept of "no victor, no vanquished". These efforts failed. The fact that Doha succeeded where others did not is a clear indicator that there were indeed winners and losers. Therein lies the potential for future conflict.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

516. Bringing Peace to the Niger Delta

Author:: Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The conflict in the Niger Delta has posed a fundamental domestic challenge to Nigerian security for more than a decade. Despite pledges to address continued instability in the Delta, the administration of Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua has not yet initiated a process to resolve the political, economic and security problems in the region. Oil production continues to diminish as a result of militant attacks, and is currently 20 to 25 percent below capacity. Meanwhile, militia members in the Niger Delta continue to engage in criminal activities such as kidnapping and oil bunkering1 to maximize profits for themselves and their political patrons.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Oil
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

517. Making Bosnia Work: Why EU Accession is Not Enough

Author:: Edward P. Joseph and R. Bruce Hitchner
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: More than twelve years after the Dayton Agreement ended the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the stagnant, divided country is about to enter a potentially transformative process. On June 16, Bosnia will sign a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union, cementing the country's relationship and identifying it as a prospective EU member. The SAA not only launches a process of sweeping institutional reform, but also makes Bosnia eligible for new categories of financial assistance and imposes new responsibilities on Bosnia's leaders. Advocates believe that the "sink or swim" approach of the European Commission (EC, the EU entity that traditionally leads SAA implementation) will finally wean Bosnia from dependence on international authority toward genuine cross-ethnic cooperation over a shared goal.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

518. Colombia's Crossroads: The FARC and the Future of the Hostages

Author:: Virginia M. Bouvier
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This USIPeace Briefing discusses the condition of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), their hostages and the potential direction of this situation. The briefing stresses insights that key figures in the issue raised in recent visits to Washington, DC.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Central America

519. Opposition Alliances and Democratization in Egypt

Author:: Hesham Sallam
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: What is the future of democracy in Egypt? What are the prospects for cooperation between the country's Islamist and non-Islamist political opposition groups? How can such cooperation be strengthened? These questions were at the forefront of discussions at the Second Annual Wasat Generation Dialogue, held in Cairo Egypt May 27-29, 2008 and hosted by USIP, the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, and Georgetown University's Center for Democracy and Civil Society. An outgrowth of USIP's Arab Political Oppositions Project (APOP), this not-for-attribution dialogue brought together a select group of Egyptian political leaders, American academics and U.S. democracy-promoters. The conference provided a unique venue to explore the prospects for enhancing political cooperation across the ideological/religious divide in the Egyptian political arena. It also highlighted the potential to build bridges of cooperation among a new generation of political activists.
Topic:: Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Egypt

520. Killing Friends, Making Enemies: The Impact and Avoidance of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

Author:: J Alexander Thier and Azita Ranjbar
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This USIPeace Briefing discusses the enormous problem of civilian casualties in Afghanistan; the “troops-in-contact” dilemma regarding air power; challenges in intelligence gathering; losses in the information war with Taliban forces; and policy recommendations to mitigate this trend.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

521. Iraq: Positive Change in the Detention System

Author:: Elizabeth Detwiler
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This USIPeace Briefing, summarizing remarks from a former commander for detainee operations in Iraq, discusses recent successes in improving the conditions of insurgent detainees in the country.
Topic:: Government and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

522. Moving Beyond Relief: The Challenges of Settling Kenya's Internally Displaced

Author:: Sheila Mwiandi
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Kenya's post-election violence has displaced more than 600,000 persons within the country since December 2007. Although violence-induced displacement is not a new phenomenon in Kenya, the magnitude, speed and intensity of this displacement were unprecedented. Clashes in the 1990s, also around general elections, displaced hundreds of thousands of Kenyans, many of whom remain displaced today. The new coalition government has made the resettlement of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) a top priority, launching "Operation Return Home" in May.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

523. Coming Soon to a Country Near You: Kosova Sovereignty

Author:: Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Why does the United States support Kosovo's independence, even putting at risk its relations not only with Serbia but also with Russia? And how does Washington plan to contain the consequences? It is often assumed that Washington's position is based on a sense of moral obligation, deriving not only from the mistreatment of Albanians under the Milosevic regime but also from American promises since. While this fact or unquestionably weighs on the side of the Kosovars, it is not I think decisive. Understanding Washington's support for Kosovo's independence requires an analysis of the consequences of further delay as well as the consequences of moving ahead, even in the absence of a UN Security Council resolution.
Topic:: Government and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, America, and Balkans

524. Côte d'Ivoire: Ensuring a Peaceful Political Transition

Author:: Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The March 2007 Ouagadougou Political Accord (OPA), signed by Laurent Gbagbo, president of Côte d'Ivoire, and Guillaume Soro, leader of the Forces Nouvelles (FN) rebel movement, holds great promise for ending the current political stalemate and reuniting the country. The political crisis began in September 2002 with an attack by military officers protesting the government's decision to demobilize them; according to some, it was also, an attempted coup d'état. The uprising generated other rebel groups, which took control over the northern part of the country and ignited a civil war. Even after the brunt of the fighting ceased, the country remained divided, with northern Côte d'Ivoire devoid of public services and the state's administration. The OPA is the sixth peace agreement directed at ending the political crisis; the previous five were never fully implemented due to, among other factors, disagreements about the selection of the mediator, the absence of political will among the signatories, and the tense relationship between the government of Côte d'Ivoire and the United Nations. Blaise Compaoré, president of Burkina Faso, mediated the negotiations leading to the signing of the OPA. Burkina Faso remains the facilitator of the agreement's implementation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Africa and United Nations

525. Afghanistan's Economy: On the Right Road, But Still a Long Way to Go

Author:: Beth Ellen Cole
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan has now laid the foundation for a market-based economy. A new economic system, based on the state as a regulator, not a producer, of goods, with a clear separation between the public and private sectors, stands in place of the centralized economy of the past. An independent central bank, a liberalized foreign exchange system, and laws permitting foreigners to wholly own property characterize the new economic landscape. A doubling of the gross national product and per capita income, a 13 percent growth rate in 2007, and modest inflation paint a vibrant picture.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

526. Behind the Numbers: Assessing Indices of Peace, Conflict and Instability

Author:: Sarah Bessell
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Can peace and stability be measured? If so, what are some of the most helpful indicators for determining at-risk countries and regions? What is the significance of resulting rankings and changes from year to year? On September 17, 2007, USIP hosted a public event to explore these and related questions. The panel featured three indices that attempt to quantify aspects of countries' peacefulness, conflict, and instability: the Failed States Index, the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger, and the Global Peace Index. The panel examined the meaning, methodologies, and utility for policymakers and researchers of these and other indices. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion at this event.
Topic:: Security, Demographics, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Somalia

527. The Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement: Taking Stock and Moving Forward

Author:: Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Eastern Sudan, comprising the three states of Kassala, Red Sea, and Gedarif, is, according to many accounts, among the most marginalized regions in Sudan. There are few international humanitarian agencies in the region, and information on social and economic conditions is scarce. The extent of eastern Sudan's marginalization led to the creation of the Beja Congress, an armed and political movement, in 1958 and the development of a low-intensity conflict in 1997. In 2005, the Beja Congress joined forces with the Rashaida Free Lions, a rebel group, and other small groups to form the Eastern Front.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

528. Bridging Modernity and Tradition: Rule of Law and Search for Justice in Afghanistan

Author:: J Alexander Thier and Leigh Toomey
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: A legitimate, functioning and coherent justice system is urgently needed to establish peace and stability in post-Taliban Afghanistan. After three decades of war, continued insecurity, endemic corruption, and lack of resources hobble the formal justice system. Informal, community-based dispute resolution mechanisms—which are more readily accessible and understood than formal courts by most Afghans, particularly outside urban areas—are widely used to resolve both civil and criminal matters. These mechanisms are critical to maintaining stability within communities, and at present handle over 80 percent of disputes in Afghanistan. At the same time, informal or traditional practices may fall short of due process and human rights standards.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

529. Building Blocks, Stumbling Blocks: Prospects for Peace in Kashmir

Author:: Heather Coyne
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The U.S. Institute of Peace recently hosted Farooq Kathwari, head of the Kashmir Study Group, to discuss the prospects for peace in Kashmir. Kathwari's personal involvement and commitment to the peace process give him a unique ability to see potential for a way around the obstacles in this seemingly intractable conflict. During the session, Chester Crocker, a member of the Kashmir Study Group and a USIP board member, described those obstacles in more depth, providing a framework for analyzing what peacemaking efforts like Kathwari's have been able to achieve and which aspects of the process remain fragile. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the central points made during that discussion and does not represent the views of the Institute, which does not advocate specific policies.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, India, and Kashmir

530. Inside North Korea: A Joint U.S.-Chinese Dialogue

Author:: Bonnie Glaser and Chietigj Bajpaee
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: To better understand perspectives in the United States and China on internal developments in North Korea, the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in partnership with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, convened a daylong conference on December 5, 2006. The conference took place on the eve of the resumption of the Six-Party Talks in Beijing, which subsequently ended without tangible progress. The participants discussed North Korea's economy, the role of external actors on North Korea's decision-making, and Chinese and U.S. visions for the future of the Korean Peninsula. The seminar also included a simulation based on a scenario of an explosion at Yongbyon that creates a radioactive plume that moves across the Sea of Japan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Asia, and North Korea

531. British Counter-Terrorism After the July 2005 Attacks: Adapting Community-Policing to the Fight Against Domestic Terrorism

Author:: Jytte Klausen
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: British security officials have announced their conclusion that Britain is now al-Qaeda's "number one" target. Over 1,000 individuals have been arrested on terrorism charges since September 11, 2001, and about two hundred individuals currently await trial. Twenty-three have been convicted on terrorism charges. In November 2006, MI5's head, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, estimated that there were 30 major plots under way, and that an attack in the UK was "highly likely."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

532. Reforming the Iraqi Interior Ministry, Police, and Facilities Protection Service

Author:: Robert Perito
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In December 2006, Iraq's “Year of the Police” ended with the completion of several milestones. The Multi-National Security Transition Command's (MNSTC-I) program trained and equipped 135,000 members of the Iraq Police Service. Training and equipment was also provided to the 24,400 members of the Iraq National Police (constabulary) and 28,360 members of the Border Police. Nearly 180 American Police Transition Teams and 39 National Police Transition Teams were embedded with Iraqi forces, while a 100-member Ministry Transition Team was assigned to the Ministry of Interior to improve its operations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

533. Civilians Will Make the Difference in Iraq

Author:: Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: As vice president for peace and stability operations at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Daniel Serwer has for three years supervised a Congressionally-funded peacebuilding effort in Iraq, after a decade spent on Balkans peacebuilding efforts both at the State Department and USIP. This USIPeace Briefing, prepared as testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in early January 2007, presents his personal views, not those of the Institute, which does not take positions on specific policies.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Balkans

534. The Future of Democracy in Bangladesh

Author:: Pavithra Banavar and Nicholas Howenstein
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In early January, in a surprising turn of events, the head of Bangladesh's caretaker government, Iajuddin Ahmed, stepped down under military pressure. As he did so, he declared a state of emergency, suspended civil liberties, and indefinitely postponed Bangladesh's elections, which had been scheduled for January 22, 2007. Fakhruddin Ahmed replaced him as head of the caretaker government. Most of these events have taken place with relatively little attention from the international community.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and Asia

535. Nigeria 2007: Building Blocks for a Peaceful Transition Workshop Report

Author:: Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Nigeria has had a grim history of electoral violence since its return to democratic rule in 1999, and with its next elections eight weeks away, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), in partnership with the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding - Nigeria (WANEP-Nigeria), held a workshop on the prevention of electoral violence. The workshop entitled, "Nigeria 2007: Building Blocks for a Peaceful Transition," took place in Abuja, Nigeria, from February 13 to February 15, 2007. Thirty-one participants from civil society organizations representing all six of Nigeria's geo-political zones attended the workshop.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Nigeria

536. Public Health and Conflict in North Korea

Author:: Sarah Dye
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: During the mid-1990s, North Korea experienced a famine that killed millions of people, mostly in rural areas. Despite the severity of that famine and the ensuing deterioration of public health, the political leadership in North Korea has obstinately blocked the effective delivery of humanitarian aid to its citizens. On November 16, 2006, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHSPH) Task Force on Public Health and Conflict held its first symposium, which selected North Korea as a case study. The Task Force is committed to raising the profile of conflict analysis and resolution in the field of public health education through a year-long series of events. The speakers at this first symposium included Scott Snyder of the Asia Foundation; Sophie Richardson of Human Rights Watch; two South Korean physicians, Kim Jin-Yong and Lee Yun-Hwan; Courtland Robinson, a Johns Hopkins faculty member and researcher; and one North Korean refugee who addressed the symposium under a pseudonym. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the symposium's discussion on public health and conflict in North Korea.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and North Korea

537. The Crisis in Interfaith Relations in the Middle East

Author:: Paul Wee
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The interfaith peace movement in the Middle East has foundered recently, a casualty of major geo-political events, among them the war in Iraq, the increase in hostility between Iran and the West, the Israel-Hezbollah war, and the failure of efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In addition, fallout continues from the Danish cartoon controversy and the remarks of Pope Benedict XVI in 2006. These and related factors have contributed to undermine interfaith efforts and limit opportunities for meaningful dialogue and common action.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Israel

538. Kosovo: What Can Go Wrong?

Author:: Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: At the end of the NATO/Yugoslavia war almost eight years ago, the Albanian-majority Serbian province of Kosovo was removed from Serbia's governance and placed temporarily under a United Nations protectorate, administered by the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Last summer, UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari was tasked by the Security Council with resolving the question of Kosovo's future status, with support from U.S. and European Union envoys (Frank Wisner and Stefan Lehne respectively). Ahtisaari's effort is now drawing to a close. He has delivered to both Pristina and Belgrade a plan that explicitly allows a great deal of protection for Serbs and their religious monuments in Kosovo but implicitly ends Belgrade's sovereignty. His plan opens the prospect of a sovereign and independent Kosovo under continuing international supervision. It is anticipated that Ahtisaari will take his plan, with some revisions, to the UN Security Council this month. This USIPeace Briefing discusses potential drivers of conflict in Kosovo during the status decision and in the period thereafter. These drivers of conflict arise from the international community, the Kosovo Albanians, Serbia and the Kosovo Serbs. They have the potential not only to make Kosovo dysfunctional but also to destabilize the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

539. State-Owned Enterprises: Post-Conflict Political Economy Considerations

Author:: Zoë Cooprider and James Wasserstrom
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Participants at a recent USIP working group meeting on infrastructure development in conflict environments discussed the viability of revitalizing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Iraq. The meeting, held on February 1, 2007, focused specifically on Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Business Transformation (BTA) Paul Brinkley's effort to revitalize a selection of the nearly 200 SOEs that once produced consumer and durable goods, but which have been shut down since the beginning of the stabilization and reconstruction (S) effort in 2003. Brinkley is attempting to rescue what is salvageable through this controversial SOE revitalization project. In January 2007, after eight months of research and investigation, Brinkley announced that ten factories had been selected to initiate his SOE revitalization project and would be open within two to three months.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq

540. Nation Building: We CAN Do Better

Author:: Beth Cole and Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: How can the international community increase the likelihood of success in societies emerging from conflict? This question was discussed at a public Institute event, Nation Building in the 21st Century: Prescriptions for Success, on March 9, 2007. The panel of speakers included Representative Sam Farr (D-CA); Ambassador James Dobbins, director of International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND National Security Research Division; Ambassador John Herbst, coordinator for the Office of Reconstruction and Stabilization; and Beth Cole, senior program officer at the Institute. Daniel Serwer, Institute vice president for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations, moderated. The discussion drew on a new RAND book, The Beginner's Guide to Nation Building, whose authors include Dobbins and Cole, a “Framework for Success for Societies Emerging from Conflict” developed by USIP, and new operating models nearing approval by the U.S. government for the deployment of civilians to missions abroad. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the main points made during the discussion and does not represent the views of the Institute, which does not advocate specific policies. Drawing on past experience, the panel emphasized that the success of future nation building missions depends on acquiring support from policymakers in Congress and the Administration, applying lessons learned in the past, using common frameworks and doctrine for the future, and increasing civilian capacity, which is sorely lacking.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States

541. Security Sector Reform in Liberia: Domestic Considerations and the Way Forward

Author:: Dorina Bekoe and Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Security Sector Reform (SSR) is one of the four major objectives pursued by the Liberian government as it rebuilds after the fifteen-year civil war. The innovative approaches and framework employed by the government of Liberia and the international community to reform the Liberian security sector after the civil war were discussed at a meeting of the Liberia Working Group, an initiative of the United States Institute of Peace. The meeting, which took place on February 21, 2007 featured Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein, former United Nations special representative of the secretary general in Liberia (UNSRSG), and Andy Michels and Sean McFate, co-founders of Interlocutor Group. The panelists provided an overview of the policy framework used for security reform in post-conflict Liberia and the challenges facing Liberia in rebuilding its security services. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the central points of the meeting and summarizes recommendations for the way forward. Most of the discussion during the working group meeting centered on the reform of the army, although key points on police reform are also noted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Communism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Liberia

542. Syria's Relations with Iraq

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This is the fourth in a series of USIPeace Briefings on Syria published by the Institute's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention. Written by Mona Yacoubian, director of the Institute's Syria Working Group and special adviser to the Muslim World Initiative, it is based on discussions at a recent seminar held at the Institute. The views expressed do not reflect those of the Institute which does not take policy positions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

543. Who Rules Ahmadinejad's Iran?

Author:: Hesham Sallam
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Iran's recent detention of 15 British sailors and marines, captured in the contested waters of the Shatt al-Arab near the Iranian coast, has exacerbated tensions between the United States and Iran. The incident also underscored the opacity of the Iranian political system; it is unclear on whose directive the Iranian navy acted. With U.S.–Iranian relations already strained due to the Islamic Republic's activities in Iraq and its nuclear ambitions, understanding the Islamic Republic's power structure and decision-making processes has become increasingly important. To answer the question "Who rules Ahmadinejad's Iran?" USIP's Iran Policy Forum convened an off-the-record discussion with leading specialists on Iranian politics. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the main points made during the discussion and does not represent the views of USIP, which does not advocate specific policies.
Topic:: Government and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

544. New Strategies for Darfur

Author:: David Smock
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On April 4, the U.S. Institute of Peace convened its Sudan Peace Forum to discuss new strategies for dealing with the ongoing crisis in Darfur. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion, which was conducted on a not-for-attribution basis. It was written by David Smock, the vice president of USIP's Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution. It does not represent the views of USIP, which does not advocate specific policies.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:: Africa and United States

545. Prospects for a Successful Peace Process in Nepal: Internal and International Perspectives

Author:: Lynn Tesser
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On November 21, 2006, Nepal's government and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) signed a comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) to formally end their ten-year conflict, which has resulted in an estimated 13,000 deaths. The agreement has been widely hailed as historic and many observers feel cautiously optimistic, in spite of the hurdles that lie ahead. On January 22, 2007, the U.S. Institute of Peace sponsored a one-day program in Washington, D.C., to address the challenges Nepal now faces. It brought together a broad spectrum of attendees, from representatives of academia and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to the U.S. Departments of State and Justice. Presenters were asked to comment on particular challenges that Nepal faces during the peace process. This USIPeace Briefing provides an overview of the presentations given at the conference, and includes remarks from Ambassador Julia Chang Bloch (former U.S. ambassador to Nepal and president of the U.S.–China Education Trust); Dr. Chitra K. Tiwari (journalist, The Washington Times); Dr. Jaya Raj Acharya (senior fellow, USIP); and Kul Chandra Gautam (assistant secretary-general of the UN and deputy executive director of UNICEF). It was prepared by Lynn Tesser, program officer in USIP's Jennings Randolph Fellowship program.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Asia, and Nepal

546. The Situation in Afghanistan: A Re-evaluation Needed

Author:: Beth Cole and Catherine Morris
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Taliban fighters have re-emerged in full force in Afghanistan and insurgency-related violence has increased to record levels, resulting in 2,732 fatalities between September 1, 2006, and February 25, 2007. According to the United Nations, the 35,460-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), along with the 8,000 troops deployed under the United States-led coalition command, has begun its own offensive against the insurgency in the south, targeting opium growing regions and Taliban safe zones. From safe havens in the Pakistan border areas, the Taliban are now pursuing a long-term strategy of exploiting their control of remote villages to gain control of districts and then regions. Thus, a conflict that had been pushed down on the U.S. and international agendas is now reemerging. As the Taliban regroups and continues its insurgency, the international community is faced with the need to re-evaluate and strengthen its own plan of action.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban

547. Public Health and Conflict Series: Rebuilding a Nation's Health in Afghanistan

Author:: Sarah Dye
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Since the Soviet invasion of 1979, Afghanistan's health system has been decimated by over 27 years of near constant conflict. The ensuing civil war between warlords and rebel groups, including the Taliban, led many Afghan doctors and other intellectuals to flee to Pakistan, Iran, and elsewhere. Under Taliban rule in the 1990s, women were forbidden to attend school, and university teaching hospitals had no equipment, no training materials, and few books. While there have been advances over the past five years through the assistance of United Nations organizations and the international NGO community, Afghanistan's health indicators remain among the lowest in the world.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Health
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

548. Is Iran Facing an Economic Crisis?

Author:: Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Western policy toward Iran relies heavily on economic pressure, and Iran's political trajectory is shaped in large part by its economic prospects and constraints. A toughened regime of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran and uncertainties about the viability of its petroleum sector—compounded by deep structural distortions caused by a history of economic mismanagement—raise real questions about the state of the Iranian economy. The Iran Policy Forum at the United States Institute of Peace convened a meeting to discuss the status of Iran's economy and energy sector; the effect of Iran's uncertain political climate and concerns over its nuclear program on the economy; and actions the government should take to avoid future economic troubles. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

549. Options for Police in a U.S. Civilian Reserve Corps

Author:: Robert Perito and Beth Cole
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In the State of the Union address this year, President Bush joined calls for a U.S. civilian reserve corps that could rapidly deploy to restore public order and begin reconstituting the institutions of governance so desperately needed in states emerging from conflict. The Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization (S/CRS) at the U.S. Department of State was created in part for this purpose, but it has never received adequate resources. The current challenge of locating qualified and willing civilians to join Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq and Afghanistan has given renewed impetus to initiatives aimed at overcoming this chronic shortcoming.
Topic:: Civil Society, Political Economy, War, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

550. Nepal in Transition: Developing Security and Rule of Law Strategies

Author:: Karon Cochran-Budhathoki and Colette Rausch
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In February 2007, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) facilitated a series of dialogues in Kathmandu, Nepal between civil society, the Nepal police, and representatives of political parties. The aim was to identify those areas of mutual concern related to security and the rule of law in Nepal. Civil society representatives from development organizations, media, human rights groups, the legal community, and Dalit and Janajati rights groups participated. The representatives from the Nepal police included deputy inspector generals, senior superintendents, superintendents, and deputy superintendents of police. The dialogue sessions were conducted over the course of four days. On day one, civil society representatives met to discuss the challenges and possible solutions to security and the rule of law. The next day, the police discussed the same issues. On day three, the two groups came together to develop a joint list of high-priority issues. On the final day, the police and civil society representatives presented this joint list to political party representatives.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

551. Zimbabwe's Latest Crackdown: Responses and Consequences

Author:: Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The socio-economic and political conditions in Zimbabwe have been declining for years, but on March 11, 2007, they seemed to take a dramatic turn for the worse. Following months of protests, the Zimbabwean security forces embarked on a political crackdown that resulted in the arrest and assault of opposition leaders, including Morgan Tsvangirai, head of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), the main opposition party. Against these worsening conditions, the United States Institute of Peace convened a public meeting on April 25, 2007, led by Michael Bratton, Adrienne LeBas, and Martha Mutisi, to discuss the triggers leading to the March 2007 crackdown, the changes within the political parties in Zimbabwe, the challenges facing civil society organizations (CSOs), and the public's response to past political violence. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the meeting's discussions and highlights recommendations for the way forward.
Topic:: Security and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

552. Western Sahara - How to Create a Stalemate

Author:: Anna Theofilopoulou
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The conflict over Western Sahara between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front, a rebel movement striving for the independence of Western Sahara from Morocco, has been on the agenda of the UN Security Council since 1991. The settlement plan that came into effect that year envisaged a referendum on self-determination for the people of Western Sahara with the choice of either integration with Morocco or independence. This "win or lose" approach is responsible for the "take no prisoners," zero-sum attitude adopted by both sides ever since. It has caused both parties to miss opportunities for a solution that would have allowed each to get some of what it wanted while allowing the other to save face. It has also paralyzed the UN from taking decisive action that could have resolved the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Morocco

553. Women's Role in Liberia's Reconstruction

Author:: Dorina Bekoe and Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Women were crucial in bringing peace to Liberia and are also a critical part of the rebuilding process. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has made it a priority to include women in Liberia's reconstruction: women head the ministries of commerce, justice, finance, youth and sports, and gender and development. They also comprise five of the 15 county superintendents. Still, more must be done to increase the capacity of women to take part in Liberia's peacebuilding. On April 23, 2007, the United States Institute of Peace and the Initiative for Inclusive Security co-organized a meeting of the Liberia Working Group to discuss the role that women have played in achieving and maintaining peace in Liberia and the challenges and opportunities of participating in the reconstruction of the country. Panelists included Leymah Roberta Gbowee, executive director of the Women Peace and Security Network Africa and founder of the Women in Peacebuilding Network (WIPNET), Juanita Jarrett, founding member of the Mano River Women's Peace Network (MARWOPNET), and Waafas Ofosu-Amaah, senior gender specialist at the World Bank. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the meeting's central points and recommendations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Liberia

554. Is Serbia Moving Toward Europe?

Author:: Yll Bajraktari and Greg Maly
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Since the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in October 2000, Serbia has struggled to find its way. Is the country shifting toward the West or East? What will happen with Kosovo? Does Serbia need Europe? Does Europe need Serbia? These issues were discussed at a May 7, 2007 event at USIP featuring James Lyon, special Balkans advisor for the International Crisis Group; Boris Stefanovic, deputy chief of mission at the Embassy of Serbia; and Martin Sletzinger, director of East European Studies at the Wilson Center for Scholars. Daniel Serwer, vice president for Post-Conflict Peace and Stability Operations at USIP, moderated the discussion. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the main views expressed by the panelists and participants. It does not represent the views of USIP, which does not take positions on policy issues.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Mongolia, Kosovo, and Balkans

555. Armed Conflict as a Public Health Problem: Current Realities and Future Directions

Author:: Sarah Dye and Linda Bishai
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On April 20, 2007, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHSPH) Task Force on Public Health and Conflict wrapped up its 2006-2007 activities with a public event featuring Dr. Christopher Murray of Harvard University School of Public Health. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes Dr. Murray's presentation and the discussion that followed on armed conflict as a public health problem.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Health, and War
Political Geography:: United States

556. Syria's Alliance with Iran

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This is the fifth in a series of USIPeace Briefings on Syria published by the Institute's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention. Written by Mona Yacoubian, director of the Institute's Syria Working Group and special adviser to the Muslim World Initiative, it is based on discussions at a recent seminar held at the Institute. The views expressed do not reflect those of USIP, which does not take policy positions
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

557. The Iraq Hydrocarbon Law: How and When?

Author:: Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The much-discussed and often delayed Iraqi hydrocarbon law, approved by the Iraqi cabinet in February, is a bellwether for the future of the Iraqi state. Successful passage and implementation of the law would reflect a strong spirit of compromise and help to calm violence. If, on the other hand, the proposed law fails to pass, it will have negative repercussions for Iraq's social, economic and political stability.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

558. International Intervention in Gaza: Options and Obstacles

Author:: Scott Lasensky
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The international response to the Hamas takeover of Gaza has largely focused on building support for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, including announcements by the United States and the EU that the 15-month aid embargo was ending, with assistance to be channeled through the "emergency" government led by Salam Fayyad. But the Hamas takeover has also led to a variety of calls for greater international intervention in Gaza, well beyond the work of the UN and other aid agencies, the Egyptian mediation team, and the European Union monitoring force at the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and International Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

559. Haiti's Drug Problems

Author:: Robert Perito and Greg Maly
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: At their White House meeting on May 8, 2007, President Bush promised Haitian President René Préval that the United States would do more to help Haiti fight drugs and drug traffickers. Préval agreed that drugs threaten Haiti's government, which lacks the capacity to fight international narcotics trafficking alone. The two presidents were right to emphasize this issue. The nearly unimpeded flow of narcotics through Haiti undermines the rule of law and the legitimacy of Haiti's government. It fosters corruption in the police, courts, and customs; fuels weapons trafficking; finances armed gangs; breeds insecurity; and hampers economic development by discouraging investment and tourism. Haiti is an important transshipment point for cocaine reaching the United States and a major concern for American authorities.
Topic:: International Relations and Health
Political Geography:: United States, America, and Haiti

560. The Role of the Media in Conflict

Author:: Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: While a considerable amount of analysis has focused on the media's potential to support democracy efforts and build sustainable peace, no similar effort has been given to analyze the role media can play in conflict prevention. Nor has the media's capacity to incite conflict been sufficiently analyzed and the lessons learned.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and War

561. No Silver Bullets for Afghanistan's Drug Crisis

Author:: Beth Cole and Catherine Morris
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan supplies more than 90 percent of the world's opium. Despite concerted efforts to tackle the drug problem in Afghanistan, the industry continues to grow at an alarming rate, particularly in the south, where reconstruction efforts lag amidst poor security. Afghanistan's opium crop grew 59 percent from 2005 to 2006, according to UN reports, and officials expect a crop equal to if not greater than the 2006 crop in 2007. Overall, the industry accounts for nearly one-third of the country's economy and remains one of the chief threats to Afghanistan's security and development, as it becomes increasingly linked to corrupt Afghan officials and the Taliban.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban

562. Developing and Managing Congo's Natural Resources

Author:: Dorina Bekoe and Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is among the most mineral-rich countries in Africa. During the war, those natural resources fueled the conflict, and provided illegal sources of wealth for some. Now, as the DRC undertakes the rebuilding of its economy, the management of natural resources serves as a key component in its development strategy. Properly and profitably managing natural resources in the DRC is a complex task that must take into account security issues, regulatory reform, the structure and legality of past contracts, and the political environment for change. To address these issues, the U.S. Institute of Peace organized a meeting of the Congo Peacebuilding Forum on May 17, 2007. Panelists included Rico Carisch, of the United Nations Group of Experts for the DRC, and Peter Rosenblum, of Columbia University School of Law. This briefing summarizes the main points discussed by participants at the meeting.
Topic:: International Relations and Development
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

563. Rebuilding Civil Society in Afghanistan: Fragile Progress and Formidable Obstacles

Author:: Scott Worden and Christina Caan
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Nearly six years after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, efforts to develop civil society are showing tentative signs of progress. Advances are especially evident in the increasing capacity of Afghan non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Kabul. But the effectiveness of civil society in influencing development in the provinces remains low, and rising insecurity in many regions threatens the future prospects of the nascent Afghan civil society.
Topic:: International Relations and Civil Society
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

564. Healing and Reintegrating the Victims of Congo's War

Author:: Dorina Bekoe and Christina Parajon
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Child soldiers and women are among the most vulnerable victims of Congo's war. Attending to their needs for reintegration, counseling, and medical attention are critical components for consolidating peace. The two groups face somewhat different problems. Whereas women often do not have sufficient resources to heal the social and physical wounds they have endured, child soldiers face greater difficulties in reintegrating with their families and communities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

565. Public Health and Conflict in Iraq: Rebuilding a Nation's Health

Author:: Linda Bishai and Sara Dye
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On March 22, 2007, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (JHSPH) Task Force on Public Health and Conflict held its third symposium, "Iraq: Rebuilding a Nation's Health." The Task Force is committed to raising the profile of conflict analysis and resolution in the field of public health education.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Health
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

566. Journey of Death: Suicide Bombers in Iraq

Author:: Christina Caan
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Over the past four years, suicide bombings have become a choice weapon of the insurgency in Iraq. Today, terrorists and insurgents perpetrate suicide attacks regularly, taking a profound physical and psychological toll on the local population and the multinational forces serving in the country. Curbing the incidence of these attacks depends in part on understanding the motivations that trigger them. In his latest book on this challenging topic, Mohammed Hafez offers trenchant insights into the deadly phenomenon of suicide bombing, shedding much needed light on the strategy and ideology behind what often appears to be an inexplicable act of terror.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

567. Violence in the Terai Region and the Madhesi Movement: Prospects for Peace in Nepal

Author:: Emily Wann
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Nepal is in a period of transition to peace and democracy, progressing on many fronts but encountering some challenges and threats to sustainable peace along the way. King Gyanendra relinquished absolute control and reinstated the House of Representatives on April 24, 2006, underscoring the movement toward democracy. The Maoists and the government of Nepal signed a peace agreement on November 21, 2006, and then a ceasefire agreement on December 8, 2006, ending the ten-year insurgency. An Interim Constitution was adopted on January 15, 2007, and the Maoists joined the government. Despite these positive steps, the Terai region, located in the southern lowlands of Nepal near the border of India, has experienced a surge in violence from the last six months.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

568. Hearts and Minds: Afghan Opinion on the Taliban, the Government and the International Forces

Author:: Rachel Steele
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Since the election of new leaders and the establishment of a new constitution, the government of Afghanistan has been trying to prove its legitimacy and ability to foster stability, security, and the rule of law. The Taliban resurgence is playing a major role in public perception of the government's competence and the role of the international forces. Understanding current trends in public opinion can aid in tailoring the international intervention to ensure that prior progress is not lost and that elements corroding the strength of the state are diminished.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban

569. Double Alienation and Muslim Youth In Europe

Author:: Adi Greif
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: From the controversy raging in London over Muslim women wearing the niqab to the upsurge in violent crime in Paris, Muslims in Europe are at the center of a storm of disagreement. Although many Muslim youth are comfortable as Muslim and European, others feel estranged from society. A tiny minority of these youth are drawn to violence, in part as a solution to their alienation. USIP's Muslim World Initiative helped sponsor a conference hosted by the British organization Wilton Park that discussed a wide variety of problems confronting Muslim youth in Europe. A theme that ran through the conference was how to combat the alienation of Muslim youth and encourage responsible citizenship. The conference brought together a wide range of Muslims, scholars and government representatives from countries around the world.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Islam
Political Geography:: Europe

570. Constituent Assembly Elections and Security in Nepal

Author:: Karon Cochran-Budhathoki
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This USIPeace Briefing highlights the findings regarding the security situation in Nepal in the run up to constituent assembly elections scheduled for November 22, 2007. Since February 2007 the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has held individual meetings and group dialogue sessions on strengthening security and the rule of law in Nepal. These events have taken place in Washington, D.C., Kathmandu, Banke, Siraha, Kailali, Jhapa, Chitwan and Rupandehi Districts. During the sessions and meetings, including with members of the security sector, challenges and solutions to strengthening security and the rule of law were identified and discussed. While election security for the upcoming Constituent Assembly Election was not the primary subject of the discussions, various participants offered a number of recommendations and raised several concerns. Additionally, general security issues, many of which are related to election security, were discussed and can be included in a broader long-term security strategy.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Asia, and Nepal

571. Special Court of Sierra Leone Briefing: The Taylor Trial and Lessons from Capacity-Building and Outreach

Author:: Scott Worden
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Against a backdrop of halting progress by many international courts, the Special Court of Sierra Leone (SCSL) has quietly had significant success in accomplishing its mission to provide justice for the perpetrators most responsible for the horrific crimes committed against the people of Sierra Leone. Three years into the Court's operation, it has achieved guilty verdicts in cases against five defendants—with two verdicts in the past two months—that have set several important precedents in international law. The SCSL has just begun its last and most prominent case with the trial in The Hague of Charles Taylor for his role in fueling the violence in Sierra Leone while he was President of neighboring Liberia. The Taylor trial is expected to end in the fall of 2008, and with that, the Court will begin its wrap-up phase.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Africa and Liberia

572. Child Soldiers: New Evidence, New Advocacy Approaches

Author:: Sara Dye
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In over 30 conflict zones today there are estimated to be upwards of 300,000 children used to support military activities as porters, sentries, sex slaves, spies, and combatants. On June 1, 2007, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) hosted an event on the use, prevention, and reintegration of child soldiers around the world. The event featured experts working in the field, each of whom approached the issue of child soldiers from a different perspective. These differing perspectives underscored the complexities inherent to the child soldier problem, as attempts to curb the use of child soldiers, to prevent their recruitment, and to successfully reintegrate ex-combatants into their communities continue to challenge practitioners and advocates.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and War
Political Geography:: United States

573. The U.S., Iraq and the Middle East

Author:: Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The United States faces a set of unparalleled challenges in the Middle East at a moment when its capacity to respond is circumscribed and the regional and global situations are deteriorating. It is far more likely that things will get worse before they get better, though there are ways of trying to improve the odds.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

574. Sudan's 2009 Elections: Critical Issues and Timelines

Author:: Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Sudan's elections, scheduled to take place by July 2009, are a major milestone of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Domestic and international institutions are already planning for the elections, although many legal and logistical issues must be resolved before they take place. The U.S. Institute of Peace convened a meeting of the Sudan Peace Forum on July 13, 2007 to discuss the major tasks remaining in the organization of elections. The following USIPeace Briefing summarizes the status of electoral preparations and identifies critical conditions to ensure their timely organization.
Topic:: Political Economy and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Middle East

575. Constitutional Reform in Iraq: Improving Prospects, Political Decisions Needed

Author:: Neil Kritz
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: U.S. and Iraqi politicians and analysts consistently agree on one central point concerning Iraq: serious political reconciliation amongst Iraqi groups is needed to reduce the violence and create a viable government. Centrifugal forces fueled by armed conflict, competition for power and resources, and the intervention of foreign powers and neighbors has stalemated the political process in Baghdad for months.
Topic:: Democratization and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

576. Transitional Justice in Nepal: A Look at the International Experience of Truth Commissions

Author:: Karon Cochran-Budhathoki
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Amid the run-up to the Constituent Assembly elections scheduled for November, Nepal's government has prepared a Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act, as required by the November 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the government and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M). The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) is the most prominent of several commitments made during the peace process to promote transitional justice following Nepal's more than ten-year civil war—along with a committee to investigate disappeared persons and a commission to investigate abuses of the armed forces and police during democracy protests in 2006. But transitional justice—or the process of fairly confronting the legacy of past crimes committed during the armed conflict—is only beginning to be discussed in the general public in Nepal. Consequently, there is little understanding outside a small circle in the capital of what options there are to provide truth and accountability for atrocities and rights abuse that occurred during Nepal's conflict or what other countries have done to cope with similar issues.
Topic:: Democratization, International Law, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

577. Iraq: Time for a Change

Author:: Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: War in Iraq has lasted more than four years. It has required far greater resources than anticipated. The longer-term goals are still far from realization. The price the United States and Iraq are paying in blood and treasure continues to mount. The time has come to chart a clearer path forward, taking into account the regional and global contexts. Americans want an approach that protects U.S. vital interests and can therefore be supported across a wide range of the political spectrum. As Washington prepares for a critical debate in Congress this fall on what should be done in Iraq, the United States Institute of Peace convened over the summer a group of experts with many different political affiliations to consider next steps over a three-year time horizon. This USIPeace Briefing, prepared by Daniel Serwer, USIP vice president for peace and stability operations, describes their main conclusions. Areas of serious disagreement are noted. Those participants in the discussions wishing to be identified are listed at the end. This USIPeace Briefing does not represent the views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not take positions on policy issues.
Topic:: Democratization and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

578. The Central African Republic: Worsening Crisis in a Troubled Region

Author:: Jacqueline Woodfork
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Central African Republic (CAR) is one of the least known countries in Africa and the world. Because of its relative obscurity, it is often overshadowed by its better-known neighbors such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan. Recently, however, internal conflicts stemming from its historical past and its present realities, as well as the spillover of political unrest and violence from Sudan and Chad, have given the CAR more prominence on the international map. This USIPeace Briefing highlights some key elements in the CAR's political and social history and provides some insights to the current civil unrest and humanitarian crisis.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Central African Republic

579. Kosovo: Breaking the Deadlock

Author:: Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Kosovo was left at the end of the NATO/Yugoslavia war in 1999 in limbo. It is still there, despite Security Council Resolution 1244, which foresaw a process for deciding its status. That process has occurred, but because of a threatened Russian veto, the Security Council failed to approve the plan prepared under the leadership of former Finnish President Marti Ahtisaari, which provides for Kosovo's independence under international supervision with extensive protection for its Serb population. The UN Secretary General invited the Contact Group—France, Germany, Italy, Russia, the UK and the U.S.—to pursue further, direct negotiations between Pristina and Belgrade, but with little prospect of movement on either side. Belgrade continues to insist on maintenance of its sovereignty over Kosovo, and Pristina continues to insist on independence. On December 10, the Contact Group will report to the UN Secretary General, who in turn will report to the Security Council (UNSC). A small group of experts with long Balkans experience met at USIP September 5 to discuss the situation and suggest ways forward. Others (consulted electronically) join in associating their names with this paper. Listed at the end, all believe that Kosovo's independence must happen without further delay, in order to prevent regional instability. This USIPeace Briefing does not reflect the views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not take positions on policy issues.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, France, Kosovo, Germany, and Balkans

580. Disabling DPRK Nuclear Facilities

Author:: David Albright and Paul Brannan
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: During the February 2007 Six-Party Talks in Beijing, negotiators reached agreement on a series of actions aimed at starting the process of verifiably dismantling the nuclear weapons program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). A key part of this agreement stipulated that after the DPRK shuts down its nuclear facilities, it would “disable” them. The February agreement did not state which facilities would be disabled or how they would be disabled, except to imply that these issues would be subject to further negotiations.
Topic:: International Relations and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Beijing, North Korea, and Korea

581. New Hopes for Negotiated Solutions in Colombia

Author:: Virginia M. Bouvier
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This working paper analyzes recent peacemaking efforts between the Colombian government and two of the remaining armed guerrilla groups—the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces- Popular Army (FARC-EP) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). It evaluates the demobilization process with the paramilitary umbrella organization known as the United Self- Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), and current efforts to implement the Justice and Peace law that regulates the paramilitary process. The paper analyzes the roles of third-party actors— primarily the church, civil society more broadly, and the international community—in peace initiatives. In Colombia, these roles include pressuring for peace, setting the stage for peace accords, establishing spaces for dialogue and democratic discussion, creating the mechanisms for conflict resolution necessary for a sustainable peace, facilitating or mediating peace processes themselves, and implementing and monitoring peace agreements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

582. Seven Months Into the Surge: What Does it Mean For Iraqis?

Author:: Rend Al-Rahim Francke
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: People who live in the red zone have mixed experiences of the security situation. Residents of some “hot” neighborhoods of Baghdad say that the presence of Americans has a deterrent effect on militias, gangs and snipers—and thus gives comfort to citizens- - whereas Iraqi forces, including the police, army units, or pesh merga sent down from Kurdistan, do little to confront trouble-makers. For example, some neighborhoods within the larger Amiriya district have benefited from U.S. intervention, while others, such as Furat and Jihad, are still in conflict because U.S. forces have not intervened and Iraqi police and army do a poor job of stopping violence and intimidation. The higher U.S. profile is also credited for a decline in the number of suicide bombings and a decrease in mass sectarian killings and kidnappings in the city. Another factor contributing to a sense of greater safety in Baghdad is the success of U.S.-Iraqi force in the area south of Baghdad (the so-called Triangle of Death), where Sunni tribes have recently cooperated with U.S. forces. Residents of some neighborhoods said that for the first time in over a year they have been able to shop in their area in relative peace and stay out after dark.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Baghdad

583. Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 09-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Parliamentary elections across the Middle East have led to a wave of Islamist victories. Islamist parties typically boast leaders who are young and dynamic, with strong ties to the community; their party organizations brim with energy and ideas, attracting those who seek change. The U.S. government has quietly engaged moderate Islamist parties for several years. U.S. engagement has been most successful where democratic reform is already underway and where the government is genuinely committed to political opening. Other factors include the Islamist parties' political sophistication, popular credibility, and openness to working with U.S. organizations. A successful Islamist engagement strategy both empowers individuals and strengthens institutions to yield greater transparency, more accountability, and shifts toward greater moderation. Of the three cases addressed in this paper—Morocco, Jordan, and Yemen—Morocco appears to hold the greatest promise for U.S. engagement with moderate Islamists. Meanwhile, Jordan and Yemen offer important though limited instances of success. U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East affects the ability of U.S. organizations to promote democracy there. At times, Islamist parties have cut off contact with U.S. democracy promoters to protest specific aspects of U.S. foreign policy, such as the war in Iraq. Ultimately, U.S. engagement of moderate Islamists must be understood within the broader political context of the ideological battle in the Muslim world over the place of Islam in public life. Moderate Islamist parties that reject violence and practice democratic ideals are an important counterweight to Islamist extremism, and their work should be encouraged.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Jordan, and Morocco

584. Iraq and the Gulf States: The Balance of Fear

Author:: Jon B. Alterman
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Iraq's Persian Gulf neighbors supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq in order to preserve the status quo—a weak and self-absorbed Iraq—rather than to impose a new one. However, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and its aftermath have not brought stability to the Gulf States as much as they have shifted the most serious challenges from external threats (of a hostile Baghdad) to internal threats (the threat of conflict spillover from Iraq). Kuwait fears the growth of Iranian influence in Iraq and the possibility that Iraqi Shia unrest will spill across its own borders. Although many Kuwaitis question the wisdom and capacity of the United States in managing Iraq's internal problems, Kuwait has provided significant support to U.S. military action in Iraq and the country's reconstruction efforts. Qatar has supported U.S. military actions in Iraq by hosting the U.S. Central Command but still maintains the perception of nonalignment. For example, Doha hosts prominent former Iraqi Baathists, not to mention Saddam's own family members. The interest of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Iraq is secondary to its concern over Iran, with which it has a long-standing dispute over ownership of three islands in the Gulf. The unresolved dispute with Tehran over the islands heightens the UAE's concerns about the rising Iranian influence in Iraq. To bolster its relationship with the United States, the UAE offered training to hundreds of Iraqi troops and police recruits in 2004–2005, hosted the first Preparatory Group Meeting for the International Compact with Iraq in September 2006, and funded reconstruction efforts in Iraq through the United Nations and the World Bank. On post-Saddam regional security issues, member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) seem to be more “market takers” than “market makers,” showing little inclination to shape the nature of a larger and potentially more powerful neighbor. Instead, they are focused on immediate choices for calibrating a proper relationship with Washington in a way that accommodates many other important relationships.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Kuwait, Tehran, Baghdad, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Persia

585. Political Violence and Democratic Uncertainty in Ethiopia

Author:: Lahra Smith
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Assistant professor at Georgetown University, where she teaches courses on African politics, civil society and democracy in Africa, and peace and conflict in East Africa. The pardon and release of thirty-eight political detainees, mostly from the leadership of the main opposition party, may give impetus to political negotiations in Ethiopia after more than two years' crisis and stalemate. Contentious and previously unresolved national issues, such as land and economic development; the institutional and constitutional structure of the Ethiopian state; and the best way to ensure equality of ethnic and religious communities, were brought to the fore during the past election cycle. However, after the election, much- needed national dialogue on these matters ended. It must be reinvigorated now that the political opposition's leaders have been freed. Citizen discontent has grown with the caretaker administration in Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa and repressive local administrations. Elections for city and local government must be held. Further delays will undermine any democratic progress. The current Parliament includes members of several opposition political parties, though not the leaders who were imprisoned. Both the ruling party and the main opposition parties should make as many visible and meaningful concessions as possible to their political opponents. Ethiopia's military intervention in Somalia in December 2006, its ongoing military presence in that conflict, and its unchanged, tense border stalemate with Eritrea have contributed to growing violence in the Horn of Africa and stymied domestic democratization.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and East Africa

586. Building Democracy in Burma

Author:: Priscilla Clapp
Publication Date:: 07-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Noted observers of trends in democratic transition reckon that the last quarter of the twentieth century may prove to be “the greatest period of democratic ferment in the history of modern civilization. ”The disintegration of the Soviet Union and dissipation of the East-West divide gave dramatic impetus to this trend, providing us with a wide perspective on the process of political transition and the many pitfalls faced when striving to replace entrenched autocracies with pluralistic liberal democracy. Eastern European states under the sway of Soviet communism represent an example of relatively stable and orderly transition in which political and economic development were supported by a wealth of underlying institutions and encouraged by the prospect of joining the European Union. On the other hand, former Soviet republics that became independent states have, with the exception of the Baltics, experienced more difficulty shedding the Soviet heritage of authoritarian government, centralized economic controls, the culture of corruption, and unfamiliarity with individual rights and responsibilities inherent in democracy to develop effective political and economic institutions. While they have all experienced political transition, it has not necessarily brought these new countries closer to liberal democratic governance.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, and Burma

587. Ayatollah Sistani and the Democratization of Post-Ba'athist Iraq

Author:: Babak Rahimi
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Since spring 2003, Sistani has become the preeminent and best financed of the grand ayatollahs remaining in the city of Najaf—and by extension, in Iraq. He remains one of the most powerful figures in Iraq and he brings the Shi'is closer together across the greater Middle East. Since 1997, the Internet has increased the size and the prestige of Sistani's social organization to an astonishing degree on a global basis. Like his father, Sistani is an adherent of a democratic Shi'i tradition that dates back to the Persian Constitutional Revolution of 1906 to 1911 and continued with the Khatami reformist movement (1997–2005). As the general representative of the Hidden Imam, quietist Sistani can remain totally aloof from all political matters, while at times of perceived moral decadence, political corruption, great injustice, or foreign occupation, he can become more active in political affairs by engaging in activities such as consultation, guidance, and even the promotion of sacred norms in public life. Sistani's religious network is increasingly becoming an important source of local governance in southern Iraq, where many Iraqis are hired and at times agree to conduct duties that are usually carried out by the state. Sistani's insistence on recognizing Islam as a fundamental component of the Iraqi constitution is not intended to make Iraq an Islamist state based on juridical sharia strictures, but rather to limit the total secularization of the constitution, which would deprive a Muslim country of an “authentic” national identity based on its Islamic heritage. Sistani could contribute to reducing sectarian tensions by working with other Sunni and Shi'i religious leaders (including tribal leaders) to organize a National Reconciliation Initiative in order to display a united, powerful Sunni-Shi'i front with an emphasis on common Islamic ideals; to express condemnation of anti-Shi'i Wahabi extremism and anti-Sunni Shi'i radicalism; and to form communal solidarity through the ceremonial process of intersectarian group gatherings. Sistani remains a key religious figure who has influence as a peacemaker and mediator among various Shi'i factions and ethnic groups in Basra and Kirkuk that are competing for economic and territorial dominance in the northern and southern regions of the country. As long as the state army is unable to independently fight off the Sunni insurgency and Shi'i militias, it is highly unlikely that Sistani will call for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Sistani is mainly concerned with maintaining stability in the region while rejecting any form of U.S. military adventurism that could seriously endanger the integrity and autonomy of Muslim countries in the greater Middle East. Although Sistani is still a powerful figure within Iraq, his influence has diminished since the bombing of the Shi'i shrine in Samarra in February 2006 and the ensuing increase in Sunni–Shi'i violence. Washington should recognize that until the sectarian warfare subsides, there is no effective way for Sistani to become involved in the Iraqi political process. However, Washington should engage Sistani now, because of the positive role he would have in the democratization of Iraq if the sectarian tensions subside.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Kirkuk, and Basra

588. Haiti: Hope for the Future

Author:: Robert Perito
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: After one year in office, Haiti's democratically elected government enjoys broad international and domestic support. Donors have pledged more than $1.5 billion in economic assistance. The mandate of the United Nations peacekeeping mission has been extended. Haitians seem generally pleased with their new leadership. UN military forces have cracked down on armed groups, arresting more than four hundred gang members, including prominent gang leaders. Security in Port-au-Prince has improved as a consequence. U.S. congressional passage of trade preferences and new Haitian incentives for foreign investors should give a boost to Haiti's textile industry. U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) assistance programs should help create jobs in slums and conflicted communities. The sense of guarded optimism emerging from recent successes has done little, however, to alter the grim living conditions experienced by most citizens. Haiti remains the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere; 80 percent of its people live in poverty. Kidnapping, drug trafficking, and organized crime are beyond the control of Haiti's dysfunctional police force and judicial system. Comprehensive international assistance programs are needed to establish and maintain the rule of law. The success of Haiti's new government is vital to the United States and the international community. Fortunately, the United States and other donors appear to have learned from past mistakes and are committed to assisting Haitians to improve governance and promote development over the long term.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:: United States, Caribbean, and Haiti

589. Correlates of Public Support for Terrorism in the Muslim World

Author:: Ethan Beuno de Mesquita
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This report examines the correlates of individual-level support for terrorism in fourteen Muslim countries. I identify a variety of factors that are correlated with support for terrorism. These factors can be divided into a several categories: attitudes toward Islam, attitudes toward the United States, attitudes toward politics and economics in the home countries, and demographic factors.
Topic:: Development, Peace Studies, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

590. Kashmir: A Problem in Search of a Solution

Author:: Shahid Javed Burki
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The ongoing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over the status of the contested areas of Jammu and Kashmir (henceforth Kashmir) is well known and well documented. This study acknowledges that any resolution of this dispute may be many years in the making. Thus, rather than proposing solutions to the territorial conflict, the study explores the utility of forging enhanced economic opportunities for the people of the region and argues that doing so may prepare the ground for the eventual resolution of the dispute. Many of the proposals advanced here will require all the parties to the dispute—India, Pakistan, and the people of the divided state of Kashmir—to agree on a suite of programs that would bring about positive economic change from which there cannot be any turning back. I believe that such positive change would create vested interests and beneficiaries that would resist any retrenchment from continued progress.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, and Kashmir

591. Employment Generation and Economic Development in Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

Author:: Merriam Mashatt and Johanna Mendelson-Forman
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: It seems logical that improving the lives of those who have suffered from conflict would include a program to generate economic well-being in the immediate period after hostilities subside. Yet livelihood creation, the root of potential economic success and security, has often become a secondary objective in the transformation from war to peace. An obvious reason for this relegation to a lower priority is that security, humanitarian needs, and restoring the rule of law often overtake the economic development priorities of any peace-building mission. Even in Iraq, the largest stabilization and reconstruction effort undertaken by the U.S. government, restoring livelihoods and getting people back to work remains an unresolved challenge and an unmet agenda. Of the nearly $20 billion of U.S.-appropriated funds to reconstruct Iraq, only $805 million was directed toward jump-starting the private sector. Although employment generation is not a new subject in “postwar” literature, lessons about implementation vary from one country to the next. Current knowledge about “golden hour” job creation, which is creating jobs within one year of the cessation of hostilities, is culled more from specific pilot studies than from a coherent overview of what tools exist and how they can be applied. This report advances current research by providing such an overview for U.S. government policymakers. It seeks to help the U.S. government work through the lessons learned about the processes needed to generate employment. Moreover, it explores the U.S. government strategy toward golden hour job creation, the existing civilian and military tools, and how these tools can be better incorporated into larger transformation efforts. The report also notes the limitations of U.S. civilian capacity in a nonpermissive environment.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States

592. Political Progress in Iraq During the Surge

Author:: Timothy Carney
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The military surge that was launched in February 2007 has improved the security situation in Baghdad and adjacent regions. It has curbed sectarian violence in the capital and reduced the freedom of action and the support base of insurgents and terrorists in the central governorates. The rationale for the surge was to provide an opportunity for political agreements to be negotiated among Iraqis, but political progress has been stalled and has not matched the security improvements. A political settlement is essential for sustaining the security gains and for longer- term stability. Despite the declaration of a national reconciliation plan by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in June 2006, by the fall of 2007 only limited progress had been made toward reconciling the differences between the political groups and forging a national agenda. The dominance of sectarian political groups has fueled polarization, and the inability of the government and Parliament to adopt crucial legislation is a measure of continuing distrust between the groups. Serious political dialogue between the sect- based parties has proved difficult and the results are limited. At the same time intra-sectarian rivalries are increasing, particularly in the southern governorates, where the Sadris and the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq vie for political and economic control of the region. Iraqi institutions have lost ground in the past year. Iraqi ministers from Sunni, Shia, and secular groups have withdrawn from the cabinet, adversely affecting the performance of the government. The sectarian blocs that entered Parliament in December 2005 have lost their cohesiveness. The Shia United Iraqi Alliance has unraveled, and the Sunni Tawafuq coalition is strained. The emergence of tribal forces in Anbar governorate presents opportunities and challenges to the Sunnis and the Shia alike. As the sectarian blocs weaken and the Anbar tribes seek a political role, new alliances are beginning to emerge, and some may succeed in crossing sectarian and regional divides. The debate in Washington has been restricted to the level and duration of U.S. troop presence in Iraq. In the coming months, the debate should turn to means of supporting the political process and strengthening governance in Iraq as a path to stability. Bottom-up approaches to reconciliation and accommodation do not obviate the need for a broader political settlement. The United States should support a sustained international mediation effort led by the UN Security Council resulting in an Iraqi compact endorsed by Iraq's neighbors and the international comm unity. Iraqi efforts to develop cross-sectarian political alliances and national platforms need to be encouraged. The incorporation of the Anbar tribes into national politics is important to sustaining security gains. A competent national government in Baghdad is essential to the long-term stability of Iraq. A weak government will be unable to ensure the internal and external security of the country or manage revenues. More effort and resources are needed to strengthen the competence and effectiveness of the Iraqi government.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

593. Some Assembly Required: Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement

Author:: Timothy Carney
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Regional mediators and international facilitators helped the two main opposing forces in Sudan's fifty-year civil war, the National Congress Party (NCP) of the North and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement and Army (SPLM/A) of the South, to reach a detailed Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) after two-and-a-half years of negotiation, from 2002 to 2005. The United States served as the catalyst for the peace process and then became part of a group of facilitators including the United Kingdom, Norway, and Italy. At different points during negotiations, each of these countries exerted influence on the Sudanese parties. Kenya took the lead in mediating the negotiations under General Lazaro Sumbeiywo. Sudan Vice President Ali Osman Taha, representing the North, and Dr. John Garang, representing the South, spent fifteen months negotiating the final agreement in Naivasha, Kenya. Implementation of the CPA requires continuing good security with minimal fighting, agreement on the boundaries of North and South that affect the distribution of Sudan's oil wealth, completion of midterm elections, and a referendum in the South. Slow implementation of key provisions of the CPA is causing Sudanese to question the political will and even the good faith of the northern government. Failure to provide an immediate peace dividend, lack of competence in managing southern expectations, and corruption have led to public criticism of the southern authorities. Hope is waning that the CPA will pave the way to a modern, united Sudan with a government responsive to all its peoples. The SPLM/A leadership is focusing on developing the South rather than creating a national political movement. The crisis in Darfur has diverted the international community's attention. Implementing the CPA will require sustained international pressure and imagination to help resolve numerous political, economic, and social problems.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Sudan, Norway, and Italy

594. Burma's Long Road to Democracy

Author:: Priscilla Clapp
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In August and September 2007, nearly twenty years after the 1988 popular uprising in Burma, public anger at the government's economic policies once again spilled into the country's city streets in the form of mass protests. When tens of thousands of Buddhist monks joined the protests, the military regime reacted with brute force, beating, killing, and jailing thousands of people. Although the Saffron Revolution was put down, the regime still faces serious opposition and unrest. Burma's forty-five years of military rule have seen periodic popular uprisings and lingering ethnic insurgencies, which invariably provoke harsh military responses and thereby serve to perpetuate and strengthen military rule. The recent attack on the monks, however, was ill considered and left Burma's devoutly religious population deeply resentful toward the ruling generals. Despite the widespread resentment against the generals, a successful transition to democracy will have to include the military. Positive change is likely to start with the regime's current (though imperfect) plan for return to military-dominated parliamentary government, and achieving real democracy may take many years. When Than Shwe, the current top general, is replaced, prospects for working with more moderate military leaders may improve. In the end, however, only comprehensive political and economic reform will release the military's grip on the country. Creating the conditions for stable, effective democracy in Burma will require decades of political and economic restructuring and reform, including comprehensive macroeconomic reform, developing a democratic constitution and political culture, reestablishing rule of law, rebuilding government structures at national and state levels, and building adequate health and educational institutions. The international community must give its sustained attention to Burma, continuing to press the regime for dialogue with the forces of democracy, beginning with popular democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and insisting on an inclusive constitutional process. International players should also urge the regime immediately to establish a national commission of experts to begin studying and making recommendation economic restructuring to address the underlying concerns that brought about the Saffron Revolution. Though China is concerned about the Burmese regime's incompetence, it has only limited sway with the generals, who are fiercely anticommunist and nationalistic. Nonetheless, Beijing will cautiously support and contribute to an international effort to bring transition, realizing that Burma will be seen as a test of China's responsibility as a world power. The United States should restrain its tendency to reach simply for more unilateral sanctions whenever it focuses on Burma. Because a transition negotiated with opposition parties is still likely to produce an elected government with heavy military influence, the United States must prepare to engage with an imperfect Burmese democracy and participate fully in reconstruction and reform efforts, which will require easing some existing sanction.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Democratization
Political Geography:: United States, China, Beijing, Burma, and Southeast Asia

595. Developing Media in Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations

Author:: Emily Hsu and Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In war-torn societies, the development of independent, pluralistic, and sustainable media is critical to fostering long-term peace and stability. Post-conflict civilian populations are particularly vulnerable to manipulation by mass media as tensions run high and the possibility of violent relapse remains strong. Many civilians harbor deep skepticism and mistrust of the media, being accustomed to platforms that are controlled either by the state or by political groups looking to further their political agendas. An effective media strategy can mitigate postwar tensions by elevating moderate voices and dampening extremist ones. It can create peaceful channels through which differences can be resolved without resort to violence. The creation of a robust media culture will also allow citizens to begin holding their government accountable for its actions and ensuring its commitment to democracy. Efforts to develop local media institutions should be undertaken separately from attempts to develop strategic communications. In an increasing number of non-permissive envi¬ronments (i.e., environments where security is not fully established), the distinction between these two endeavors is blurred because of a mistaken assumption among some players that both activities share the same purpose and goal. A poorly developed media strategy can be detrimental in a war-ravaged country still rife with violence. A hastily conceived plan may reinforce divisions between warring parties or create a weak media sector that is vulnerable to exploitation by warlords, political patrons, and spoilers. Media development efforts also fail when the public does not trust them to establish a credible source of information. Ideally, given the media's capacity to shape war-torn countries, interveners should apply a coherent strategy in the pursuit of media development. Unfortunately, no such strategy yet exists and thus interveners have little guidance as to what tools and methods work best in the development of media institutions. In fact, media development is still conducted on an ad hoc basis from conflict to conflict. This report seeks to fill this strategic gap. More particularly, it recommends that interveners take the following series of steps as they generate a strategy for media development in post-conflict zones.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Education, and War

596. U.S. Police in Peace and Stability Operations

Author:: Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:: 08-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The first obligation of an international intervention force in a peace or stability operation is to provide security for the civilian population. Inevitably the arrival of foreign military forces is followed by a breakdown of public order. Historically U.S. military forces have been unable or unwilling to perform police functions to control large-scale civil unrest. This was true in Iraq, where looters destroyed government buildings, cultural centers, and commercial areas. The United States lacks civilian constabulary (gendarmes) or other national police forces specially trained for crowd and riot control. Instead the U.S. relies on civil police provided by commercial contractors that do not perform this function. Fortunately the U.S. government is taking steps to address this deficiency. Current State Department plans call for creation of a Civilian Reserve Corps that would have a police component. There is no agreement on the ultimate size and character of this police capacity. However, the history of U.S. interventions from Panama to Iraq argues for a robust capability. A review of U.S. interventions in post-conflict environments demonstrates that the United States has repeatedly needed highly capable police forces but has lacked the capacity to respond effectively. The case studies in this report provide lessons applicable to future operations. The State Department's current efforts are a useful first step that will give an opportunity to create the basic infrastructure for expansion of U.S. capabilities in peace and stability operations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

597. Personal Transformations: Moving from Violence to Peace

Author:: Renee Garfinkel
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Just as people become religious extremists, some of them abandon extremism and embrace peace. For some this change is a spiritual transformation, similar to religious conversion. Under certain circumstances stress, crisis, and trauma appear to play an important role in the process of change. Geographic relocation may be important for some. Migration involves novelty, insecurity, and instability, conditions that enhance vulnerability and, perhaps, openness to change. The transformation experienced by religious extremists involves a reorientation in outlook and direction but does not necessarily imply an alteration in basic personality structure. A key factor in the transition is personal relationships. Change often hinges on a relationship with a mentor or friend who supports and affirms peaceful behavior.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Peace Studies, and Religion

598. The Aceh Peace Process: Nothing Less than Success

Author:: Pieter Feith
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Even though the first contacts between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) had already taken place before the December 2004 tsunami struck, the disaster consolidated the political will to leave old grievances behind and join forces in the reconstruction process and the creation of a sustainable future for the people of Aceh. The determination of both parties, considerable pressure from Aceh's people, and significant support from the international community helped ensure a solution to the thirty-year armed conflict with dignity for all. The Aceh Monitoring Mission was the first European Security and Defence Policy operation in Asia and was conducted with five participating states from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The European Union (EU) and ASEAN are now in a position to build on this experience and use AMM as a model for future cooperation in crisis management between regional actors. Parallels may be drawn to the root causes and possible solutions of other, somewhat similar conflicts in the region. The EU will stand by the people of Aceh in the ongoing peace and reconciliation and post-conflict reconstruction processes and is determined to develop a lasting and comprehensive partnership with Indonesia.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Europe, Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

599. Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq

Author:: Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) are small civilian-military units that assist provincial and local governments in Iraq to govern effectively and deliver essential services. In January 2007 President Bush announced that the United States would double the number of PRTs as part of his plan for a “New Way Forward.” Ten new PRTs will be embedded with Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs) in Baghdad, Anbar, and Babil. The new PRTs will differ significantly from the ten original PRTs set up in Iraq in November 2005. Led by the State Department, most of the original PRTs are located on U.S. military bases and rely on the military for security and logistical support. Both types of PRTs in Iraq differ in staffing and organization from PRTs in Afghanistan. Start-up of the PRT program in Iraq has been troubled by interagency differences over funding, staffing, and administrative support and by the overriding challenge of providing security. Embedding the new PRTs with BCTs should help overcome many of these problems. Despite the problems, PRTs provide a U.S. civilian presence in areas that would not be served otherwise. Participants in PRTs believe they are having a positive effect.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

600. From Rejection to Acceptance: Israeli National Security Thinking and Palestinian Statehood

Author:: Shlomo Brom
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Despite the current stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians, the issue of Palestinian statehood is sure to reemerge. Israeli national security thinking on Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution has undergone a revolutionary change in the past two decades from total rejection to broad acceptance. After the 1967 war, Israeli thinking was characterized by the denial of the existence of a Palestinian national identity, and the perception that a Palestinian state would pose an existential threat to Israel. The first intifada, which broke out at the end of 1987, convinced the Israeli security community that the denial of Palestinian national identity was pointless and that only a political solution could resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although security measures alone may have contained the conflict, they simultaneously perpetuated it. At the same time, Israel's regional threat perceptions began to change as the conventional balance of power tilted in Israel's favor, and the likelihood of large-scale ground war was gradually replaced by the threats of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles on one hand, and terrorism and guerrilla warfare on the other. These new perceptions led Israel's political leadership to initiate the Oslo process, which enjoyed wide support among the security community. This process led to mutual recognition between the state of Israel and the Palestinian people, and implicitly to Israel's recognition of the Palestinian right to statehood. The collapse of the Oslo process in 2000 and the outbreak of the second intifada had a conflicting impact on Israeli national security thinking. On one hand it had a moderating effect on Israeli thinking about the terms of the resolution of the conflict and led to broad acceptance of Palestinian statehood, while on the other it deepened Israel's mistrust of the Palestinians and shook its belief in the feasibility of negotiating a permanent status agreement with the Palestinians. The most salient facet of present Israeli national security thinking is the growing importance of demography over geography because current population trends threaten Israel's Jewish and democratic character. As the acquisition of territory has become less important, national security is being defined in broader terms to include threats to the character of the state. The wide acceptance of Palestinian statehood has not precluded an intense debate on the nature of this state and its relationship with Israel. Those who assume that it will be a dysfunctional state hostile to Israel favor unilateral separation, while those who believe in the feasibility of a Palestinian state living in peace with Israel continue to argue for a negotiated settlement.
Topic:: International Relations and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Oslo

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS