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1. Syrian Uprising: Looking In, Looking Out

Author:
Amr al-Azm
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Syrian regime was initially able to count on its neighbors in two key areas: ensuring that their territories do not become a safe haven for Syrian dissidents and continuing to receive their support on the regional and international level. This support has since eroded as a result of the regime's inability to contain the ever-escalating level of violence being perpetrated against the protesters. The gravest concern for the regime is the emergence of a Benghazi scenario in a city like Aleppo as a result of Turkish military intervention. The Syrian regime now finds itself in an ever-increasing cycle of isolation and increased internal repression.
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

2. From Endearment to Estrangement: Turkey's Interests and Concerns in Syria

Author:
Yigal Schleifer
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Turkish relations with the Syrian regime have developed at a dizzying pace over the last 15 years, going from outright hostility to close cooperation and back to estrangement. Prior to the current uprising, Turkey looked at Syria as a cornerstone in its plans to become a political, economic and “moral” leader in the Middle East. Ankara has deep concerns regarding developments in Syria, particularly in terms of the domestic repercussions of any Syrian political instability or social upheaval. These concerns shaped Ankara's initial caution in completely breaking with Damascus and could still limit the scope of Turkish action against the Assad regime.
Topic:
Regime Change and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Arabia, and Syria

3. Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising: The Impact on Lebanon and Hezbollah

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Lebanese society is starkly divided on Syria, but all sides fear the country's potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its fallout. Lebanon's key political actors hold vastly different views on their definitions of interests, threat perceptions and desirable outcomes in Syria. Lebanon has already witnessed some negative Syrian spillover. Going forward, key concerns will center on both directed threats and uncontrolled fallout from worsening instability inside Syria. Lebanon's ability to influence the conflict dynamics inside Syria is limited.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

4. The Gulf States and Syria

Author:
Emile Hokayem
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The unrest in Syria offers the Gulf States an opportunity to weaken or even dislodge an Assad regime aligned with Iran, but their ability to project power or shape events in Syria is limited. Dislike of the Assad regime doesn't necessarily align Gulf interests and long-term vision for Syria. Moreover, cooperation on diplomacy and strategy is lacking. Sectarianism, most evidenced in media commentary and clerical statements, is already a major feature of Gulf discourse on Syria. Parts of the Syrian opposition have approached and have been courted by Gulf governments. Still, a degree of unease and mistrust continues to define their relations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

5. Watching from the Sidelines: Israel and the Syrian Uprising

Author:
Ehud Eiran
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Israel has been generally quiet regarding the recent turmoil in Syria, a reflection of the issue\'s relative low priority, as well as Israel\'s limited influence on internal Syrian matters. Israel\'s preferred outcome would be a stable Syrian regime that disassociates itself from the “axis of resistance,” poses no bilateral threats, and controls the border area—though Israel sees no clear path for achieving these aims. The view in Israel is that the basic structure of deterrence still holds vis-à-vis Syria and the regime—even in its desperate circumstances—is unlikely to provoke Israel in dramatic ways.
Topic:
Security and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria

6. Jordan and the Current Unrest in Syria

Author:
Edward W. Gnehm Jr
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Government of Jordan is deeply concerned about the turmoil in Syria, fearing the spillover effect and knowing Syria's historic capacity to undermine Jordanian internal stability. Initial official Jordanian reaction has been cautious, to avoid antagonizing Syria and provoking retaliation. There is great anxiety over what may follow the collapse of the Assad regime. Jordan is under increased pressure from both internal elements and external powers to toughen its public posture toward Damascus. Ultimately, Amman will react carefully to events in Syria, taking actions that best ensure the security of the state and the survival of the monarchy.
Topic:
Security, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria