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1. Ariel Sharon: From Warrior to Man of Peace at Last

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli leader showed himself capable of making bold policy reversals when he felt the country's welfare as a democratic Jewish state was at stake. Former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, at death's door today at age eighty-five after eight years in a stroke-induced coma, incarnated many of the contradictory dimensions of his entire country: courageous, and so unavoidably controversial; steadfast in his core convictions, yet flexible, impulsive, and even unpredictable in carrying them out; supremely self-confident, yet always acutely concerned about his country's security.
Topic:
Armed Struggle and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

2. Salafists Are the Wild Card of Egypt's Referendum

Author:
Eric Trager
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Low Salafist turnout for this week's constitutional referendum could signal a broad base of support for growing jihadist violence against the post-Morsi government. The January 14-15 referendum on Egypt's draft constitution is being billed as a referendum on the military's July 3 ouster of Muslim Brotherhood president Muhammad Morsi. Yet the vote is unlikely to alter the country's short-term political trajectory: no matter the results, the military-backed government will continue repressing pro-Morsi forces, who will in turn continue resisting a process they view as illegitimate. The extent to which Salafists participate in the referendum may have longer-term implications, however. High Salafist turnout would suggest an embrace of the Nour Party's decision to participate in the post-Morsi process, whereas low turnout would reflect strong feelings of disenfranchisement that could lead more Salafists to embrace jihadism.
Topic:
Religion, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Reform
Political Geography:
Arabia and Egypt

3. Avoiding Assad's Forced Solution to the Syria Crisis

Author:
Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given that Assad and his backers want to gut the transition process called for in the Geneva Communique, Washington should plan to take other steps in parallel to the Geneva process.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Armed Struggle, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Geneva, Britain, United States, Iran, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, France, London, Germany, Saudi Arabia, United Nations, Italy, Syria, Switzerland, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

4. Assad's Indispensable Foreign Legions

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Assad is still standing, but he is not standing alone -- and he likely no longer makes decisions alone either.
Topic:
Armed Struggle and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

5. Quiet Partnerships for a New Era: Emerging Opportunities for Arab-Israeli Cooperation

Author:
Alon Paz
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Regional circumstances point to both the possibility and the need for enhanced Arab-Israeli efforts to address challenges in the security, energy, food/water scarcity, and public-health domains.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Maghreb

6. Indecisive Inter-Rebel Fighting in Syria Benefits the Regime

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The ongoing clashes between rival rebel factions will likely be protracted and indecisive, and the resultant diversion of effort is already working to the regime's advantage.
Topic:
Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Syria

7. Israel's Growing Role in Southern Syria

Author:
Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Concerned about the possible drift of al-Qaeda affiliates to areas adjacent to the Golan Heights border, Israel finds itself obliged to increase its assistance to local rebel militias in southern Syria.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Armed Struggle, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Syria

8. Jordan Not Out of the Woods Yet

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Obama's reaffirmed pledges of assistance to Jordan are helpful, but they may not be enough to safeguard the country if the situation in Syria continues to fester. On February 14, President Obama met with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Rancho Mirage, California. In the year since their previous summit, tens of thousands of Syrians have been killed and over 400,000 have registered as refugees in Jordan, bringing the total number of exiles from across the northern border to nearly 1 million. Despite the deterioration next door and the 16 percent increase in the kingdom's population, Jordan is paradoxically more stable today than when the two leaders met in March 2013. Yet the refugees still constitute a threat that will likely increase, especially given President Obama's assessment that "we don't expect to solve [the Syria crisis] anytime in the short term."
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Syria

9. Salafism as a National Security Threat for Iran

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although Tehran worries about internal threats from Salafi jihadists, it may well cooperate with such groups if they attack Western interests.
Topic:
Security, Religion, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Iran and North America

10. The Key to Pressuring Assad Is UNSCR 2118

Author:
Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
By focusing on the Syrian regime's faltering commitment to eliminate its chemical weapons, Washington can decisively push Damascus and Russia toward real progress on larger issues -- and also set the table for limited military strikes if they prove necessary.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Russia, Washington, Middle East, and Syria

11. The Assad Regime Winning by Inches?

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The regime's recent military successes are by no means sweeping, but its incremental gains in Aleppo and Damascus belie perceptions of stalemate and could shift the war's direction in its favor. The fighting in Syria is frequently described as either a stalemate or a war of attrition -- there are few dramatic movements and no decisive actions, even though both sides repeatedly declare that they are winning and the other side is losing. And some have suggested that there is "no military solution."
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

12. Iranian Aid to Fighters in the Gulf Peninsula

Author:
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A number of U.S. interests could be served by expanding support to strategic Gulf partners in their efforts to curb Iranian aid to local fighters. On March 6, Bahrain's foreign minister told the UN Human Rights Council that the ongoing violence in his country "is directly supported by elements of the Islamic Republic of Iran." The statement does not accurately explain all political violence in Bahrain, but not every claim of Iranian support for violence should be assumed to represent part of a government propaganda campaign. U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran is in fact providing arms and more to Bahraini and other fighters in the Arabian Peninsula, and Washington should increase support to important Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners to curb it.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and United Nations

13. Rebels Worth Supporting: Syria's Harakat Hazm

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A close look at the group's military and ideological credentials seems to reveal a model candidate for greater U.S. and allied support, including lethal military assistance. In mid-April, web videos began to surface showing Syrian rebel unit Harakat Hazm (Steadfastness Movement) employing U.S.-designed antitank guided missiles in Idlib province. The use of these TOW (tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided) missiles indicates that the United States and/or one of its TOW-equipped allies have provided lethal aid to the group. Videos of two other groups with TOWs have appeared, but Harakat Hazm seems to have received the most, or at least posted the most videos of them in action. Harakat Hazm has many qualities that make it a good candidate for such assistance. It appears secular in orientation, is well organized from a military perspective, has a significant inventory of heavy weapons, operates across an important area of Syria, and has an established combat record in fighting Bashar al-Assad's regime. In short, the group seems to provide at least a partial answer to longstanding questions about which rebel groups Washington should arm.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
United States, Syria, and North America

14. Salafi Jihadists on the Rise in Jordan

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The longer the war in Syria continues, the greater the threat these fighters will likely pose. Last week, ten Jordanian Islamists who were apprehended while attempting to join the jihad in Syria were sentenced by the State Security Court to five years of hard labor. And last month, Jordanian F-16 fighter jets destroyed a convoy purportedly carrying al-Qaeda-affiliated anti-Assad-regime rebels traversing the border from Syria. These "spillover" incidents are only the latest in a disturbing trend. Over the past year, reports of Jordanian Salafi jihadists have become routine, raising the specter of terrorism returning to the kingdom.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan

15. Israel vs. al-Qaeda: Emerging Challenges on Two Fronts

Author:
Ehud Yaari and Michael Morell
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A CIA veteran and an Israeli security expert discuss the growing presence of al-Qaeda affiliates in Sinai and Syria.
Topic:
Terrorism, International Security, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

16. Shabab al-Tawhid: The Rebranding of Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia?

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Security crackdowns will not be enough to eradicate jihadist networks in Tunisia and Libya, which have the patience and ideological conviction to weather drastic reorganization. Eight months ago, the Tunisian government officially designated Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) as a terrorist organization. Since then, Tunis has cracked down on the group's activities, going after both its dawa campaign (i.e., proselytization and social-welfare efforts) and any links members have to terrorist plots. On the whole, AST's public response has been to keep relatively quiet. Yet recent developments indicate that the group may be rebranding itself as Shabab al-Tawhid (ST; the Youth of Pure Monotheism), a shift that would have important implications for efforts to counter Tunisian jihadists and their associates in Libya.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Tunisia

17. The Battle for Southern Syria Heating Up

Author:
Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recent developments indicate a credible, previously unseen rebel threat to Damascus. While rebel militias have lately suffered serious setbacks in central and northern Syria, they are now recording significant successes in the south -- the region lying between Damascus and the Israeli and Jordanian borders. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are on the defensive on all related fronts, risking the loss of this strategically important sector. It is becoming increasingly evident that a rebel push toward the capital from the south may be more promising militarily than an offensive from the so-far-stalemated front lines north of Damascus. The next few weeks may witness further major rebel gains on the southern front, which may ultimately pose the main threat to Assad's control.
Topic:
Terrorism and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

18. Morocco's Approach to Countering Violent Extremism

Author:
Mohamed Salah Tamek
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Morocco has had a largely successful record of countering violent extremism within its borders, including the dismantling of numerous cells linked to al-Qaeda core or its North African offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Thousands of suspects have been arrested for perpetrating assassinations, assaults, and robberies; huge caches of heavy weapons have been confiscated; and authorities have foiled many attempts to attack security services, tourist attractions, diplomatic delegations, and places of worship for Christians and Jews. In addition, two channels of recruitment for jihadists in Mali were dismantled in late 2012, and two months ago, Moroccan and Spanish security forces jointly dismantled a transnational cell recruiting fighters for Syria and Mali.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Syria, Morocco, and Northern Mali

19. Libya's Growing Risk of Civil War

Author:
Andrew Engel
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Long-simmering tensions between non-Islamist and Islamist forces have boiled over into military actions centered around Benghazi and Tripoli, entrenching the country's rival alliances and bringing them ever closer to civil war. On May 16, former Libyan army general Khalifa Haftar launched "Operation Dignity of Libya" in Benghazi, aiming to "cleanse the city of terrorists." The move came three months after he announced the overthrow of the government but failed to act on his proclamation. Since Friday, however, army units loyal to Haftar have actively defied armed forces chief of staff Maj. Gen. Salem al-Obeidi, who called the operation "a coup." And on Monday, sympathetic forces based in Zintan extended the operation to Tripoli. These and other developments are edging the country closer to civil war, complicating U.S. efforts to stabilize post-Qadhafi Libya.
Topic:
Political Violence, Religion, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Libya, and Tripoli

20. With the Peace Process on Hold, Washington Still Faces Key Israeli-Palestinian Tests

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the coming days, the Obama administration faces key decisions on how to respond to a Palestinian government "backed by Hamas," whether to condone Hamas participation in Palestinian elections, and what strategy to adopt in response to another effort by Palestinians to enhance their status in the UN.
Topic:
Armed Struggle and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Nations

21. Jordan and the Syria Crisis: Mitigating the 'Known Unknowns'

Author:
Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As extremists continue to move into southern Syria, growing security and humanitarian problems may soon outstrip Jordan's ability to handle spillover from the war.
Topic:
Human Rights, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

22. Iran's Afghan Shiite Fighters in Syria

Author:
Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Afghan Shiite militants have been fighting on the Assad regime's side for some time, and the scope and strategic purpose of Iran's involvement is becoming increasingly clear.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, and Middle East

23. Hamas Opts for the Hezbollah Model

Author:
Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Hamas seems intent on using Hezbollah's "bullets plus ballots" approach to gain a military and political foothold in the West Bank, the PA, and the PLO.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East

24. Mosul Security Crisis: A Chance to Break Iraq's Political Logjam

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The loss of government control in a major city may be just the wakeup call Iraqi politicians need to embrace a more ambitious reconciliation agenda.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

25. Lebanon Unstable and Insecure

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Military coordination with Hezbollah may be providing a quick fix, but the country's long-term strength can only be achieved with a reconstituted March 14 coalition.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

26. The Return of Sunni Foreign Fighters in Iraq

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Mosul crisis highlights how ISIS has established a potent cadre of foreign jihadists who freely operate across the rapidly disappearing Iraq-Syria border.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

27. Iranian Proxies Step Up Their Role in Iraq

Author:
Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iran's proxy groups have been working closely with Iraqi government forces for some time and will likely become more important to Baghdad in light of recent events.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

28. Building a Base for Iraq's Counteroffensive: The Role of U.S. Security Cooperation

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Encouraging signs have emerged that the collapse of federal government control in Iraq may have slowed and that Baghdad is beginning the transition to counteroffensive operations to regain ground. Massive mobilization of largely Shiite volunteers has given Baghdad an untrained but motivated "reserve army" that can be used to swamp cross-sectarian areas around the Iraqi capital. All available formed military units have been pulled out of reserve and brought toward Baghdad to defend the capital. In this effort, all Department of Border Enforcement units have been relocated from the country's borders, and Iraqi army and Federal Police units have been redeployed from southern Iraq. Isolated federal government units are scattered across northern Iraq, in some cases hanging on against Sunni militants with the support of adjacent Kurdish forces.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, Law Enforcement, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

29. ISIS, Iraq, and the War in Syria: Military Outlook

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Events on the battlefield will reveal the true effects of the crisis, but the ISIS campaign in Iraq could ultimately help the Syrian opposition and hurt the Assad regime.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria