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201. Palestinian Authority Minister of Economy Tied to Hamas?

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 24, 2005, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the new cabinet proposed by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei. Often described as technocratic and progressive, the cabinet is widely seen as fitting the Bush administration's requirement of being "untainted by terror." Indeed, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice highlighted the new cabinet as one of the "important steps" the Palestinian Authority (PA) had taken toward reform and described this week's London conference, held in support of the PA, as an opportunity to express "international support for their extremely important reform movement." Yet, one cabinet appointment gives reason for concern: the new minister of economy, Mazen Sunuqrut, has close, longstanding ties to Hamas.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

202. Israel's Newly Approved Security Fence Route: Geography and Demography

Author:
David Makovsky and Anna Hartman
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week, the Israeli cabinet approved modified routing of the security fence, the first officially sanctioned changes since the cabinet approved construction in October 2003. The modifications, prompted by an Israeli supreme court decision last summer made to avert Palestinian hardship, are characterized by four major adjustments: (1) revised routing in several areas that will bring the fence closer to the Green Line (pre-1967 boundaries); (2) the elimination of all fence routes that create Palestinian enclaves or "double fences" (areas where Palestinians would have been completely encircled by the security fence); (3) the addition—for the first time on any official Israeli map—of fence around the Maale Adumim settlement bloc; and (4) final authorization of fence routing and construction near the Etzion bloc.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

203. Supporting the Palestinian Authority: Will the Oil-Rich Arabs Pay Up?

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 1, British prime minister Tony Blair will host a conference in London dedicated to garnering support for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The summit is intended to help the new Palestinian leadership strengthen PA institutions, with a special focus on facilitating economic development, encouraging donor pledges, and identifying investment opportunities. Israel will not be participating, but Saudi Arabia and several other oil-rich Arab countries will attend. These countries reaped unexpectedly high government revenues in 2004 due to increased oil prices—excluding Iraq, the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw $45 billion in additional revenue compared to 2003. How much of this windfall is offered to bolster the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be seen, at least in Washington, as a key indicator of the willingness of the Arab world to secure a settlement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

204. Consolidating the Palestinian-Israeli Ceasefire

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The February 8 Sharm al-Shaykh summit may have marked the definitive end of the Arafat era. Both Israeli and Palestinian leaders issued orchestrated parallel statements declaring cessation of hostilities and highlighted the resumption of bilateral engagement after almost four and a half years of armed confrontation. Within hours, however, militant Palestinian groups challenged these commitments through attacks on Israeli targets. To take full advantage of the opportunities now available will require active effort to consolidate the fledgling ceasefire. This includes imposing the full force of the Palestinian central authority against rejectionists, clarifying the ambiguities in the parallel commitments, and enlisting key states and international actors in the campaign to combat Iranian and Hizballah designs to undermine this fragile process.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

205. Sustaining an Israeli-Palestinian Ceasefire

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire announced on February 8 in Sharm al-Sheikh created a window of opportunity that will slam shut quickly if terrorists resume attacks against Israel. After four-and-half years of incessant terrorist activity, Israeli tolerance for negotiating peace in the face of ongoing attacks is nil. The entire project, therefore, is premised on the assumption that the ceasefire will hold. But will it? Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have so far dismissed it, and previously negotiated ceasefires have all failed. Moreover, Iran and Hizballah are more proactively involved in recruiting, training, and financing Palestinian suicide bombers than ever before.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

206. No Grace Period for Newly Elected Abbas

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The newly announced ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, especially with the newly elected Palestinian leadership and the new Israeli coalition government. The time has come for both Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) to roll up their sleeves and, with international support, get down to the formidable tasks facing them in the coming months: stabilization of the security situation, Palestinian institution-building, Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank, and Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

207. Analyzing the Thaw in Egyptian-Israeli Relations

Author:
Ben Fishman
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The announcement Sunday that Israel would release 170 Palestinian prisoners as a "gesture of goodwill, friendship, and gratitude" to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is the latest in a series of events, statements, and diplomatic activity over the past several weeks that has signaled a warming in Egyptian-Israeli relations. While it is too early to tell whether this thaw can be transformed into a fully constructive relationship, after the death of Yasser Arafat both sides are attempting to work together more closely, at least for now.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Egypt

208. Inside Hizballah's al-Manar Television

Author:
Avi Jorisch and Salamech Nematt
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Al-Manar, the official television station of Hizballah, is cited in public opinion polling in some Arab countries as one of the most widely used sources of news on the Arab-Israeli conflict. With ground stations in Lebanon and programming broadcast on seven satellites worldwide, al-Manar is watched by fifteen million viewers daily and has the look of an advanced television network. The professional appearance, however, is not at all complemented by professional, fair, and balanced journalism.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

209. Islam, Islamists, and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
Martin Kramer and Gilles Kepel
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During the Cold War, Washington reached out to some Islamists in order to counter the Soviet threat. Some claim that engaging so-called "moderate" Islamists would serve U.S. interests today. But in any U.S.-Islamist dialogue, the Islamists are certain to demand concessions from the United States, including visas, freedom to raise money for their organizations, U.S. support for their participation in the politics of their home countries, and a reassessment of U.S. policy in the Middle East, including support for Israel. In return, Islamists would propose to condemn terrorist attacks against the United States, and discourage new attacks on American soil.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Soviet Union, and Arab Countries

210. European Union Suggests Turkey Is Not Quite Ready: A Window of Opportunity for the United States

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Nazli Gencsoy, and Beril Unver
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, issued its report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria, the union's membership rules that mandate "rule of law, institutions guaranteeing democracy, and respect for minorities." Although the commission praised Turkey's dramatic reform efforts since 1999, it stopped short of suggesting a date for accession negotiations with Ankara. This represents a departure from established traditions -- apparently only for Turkey, since the commission also reviewed Croatia's candidacy, suggesting a 2005 date for accession talks with that country. In another departure from tradition -- accession talks are normally only close-ended -- the report stated that any negotiations with Ankara "would be open-ended" and that their "outcome cannot be guaranteed." Finally, the report suggested that Turkey further improve its democracy, leaving the final decision on Ankara's membership to the December 17 meeting of the EU Council of Ministers, the union's highest decisionmaking body.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

211. Lessons from the Front Line in the Battle for 'Hearts and Minds': My Two Years in Morocco

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Morocco is a nation of nearly 30 million people, part Arab, part Berber, and overwhelmingly Muslim, yet distant enough from Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian arena so that those issues, while relevant, are not all-consuming. Hence, it provides an excellent vantage point from which to assess the ideological battle between radical Islamists, on the one hand, and non- and anti-Islamists on the other.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Morocco

212. Bush and Blair: Friends Indeed

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow's meeting in Washington, D.C., between President George W. Bush and visiting British prime minister Tony Blair was scheduled before the recent outbreaks of violence in Iraq and before Wednesday's announcement of U.S. support for Israel's plan to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza. But both subjects will top the agenda of talks between the two leaders, and decisions emerging from the meeting could shape international affairs for years to come. Despite the fact that both men need each other's support at the moment, significant political and policy differences between the two persist.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

213. Preventing a Boom-to-Bust in Jordan's QIZs: Implications for Middle East Free Trade

Author:
Benjamin Orbach
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Egyptian officials and businessmen are visiting Israel this week to discuss the creation of Egyptian-Israeli qualified industrial zones (QIZs), which would give them free trade access to U.S. markets. They seek to emulate Jordan's QIZs, the most successful example to date of U.S.-Arab free trade. Indeed, these zones have given Jordan -- a relatively poor and resource-scarce country -- its most substantial "peace dividend" from its 1994 treaty with Israel. Yet, the Jordan QIZ experiment is in danger of failure, a situation that has important implications for U.S. efforts to promote regional free trade.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Egypt

214. Are All Politics Local? A Look at Palestinian Municipal Elections Results

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The first round of West Bank municipal balloting occurred on Thursday, December 23. Voting was held in twenty-six locations, ranging from Jericho to smaller towns and villages. This was the first round of local voting since 1976. The results—a Fatah victory but Hamas gains—have important implications for the next Palestinian elections.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

215. Hizballah, Iran, and the Prospects for a New Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and Neri Zilber
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The death of Yasser Arafat and the approach of Palestinian elections on January 9 have rekindled hopes for the peace process. However, if history is a guide, Hizballah and Iran—which worked tirelessly to undermine the Oslo Process—will try to sabotage such efforts. (Indeed, Israeli intelligence reports cited in the Israeli press indicate that they are preparing to do so.) Having emerged from the al-Aqsa Intifada as the principal outside actors in Palestinian politics and emboldened by what they see as recent successes, Hizballah and Iran could pose major obstacles to efforts to defuse the conflict and promote Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Czech Republic

216. Beyond Arafat: Palestinian Politics in the New Era

Author:
Ehud Ya'ari
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 6, 2004, Ehud Ya'ari addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Ya'ari is chief Middle East commentator for Israel's Channel 2 Television News, Middle East editor of the Jerusalem Report, and an associate of the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

217. Deciphering Palestinian Politics Post-Arafat

Author:
Khaled Abu Toameh
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 29, 2004, Khaled Abu Toameh addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Toameh, the West Bank correspondent for the Jerusalem Post and a special correspondent for U.S. News World Report, is the 2004 Ira and Betty Weiner visiting fellow at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

218. Promoting a Ceasefire on the Palestinian-Israeli Front

Author:
David Makovsky and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Common wisdom holds that Arafat's departure from the scene opens promising new horizons to the future of the Palestinian people as well as to Palestinian-Israeli relations. But horizons, by definition, have the tricky nature of distancing themselves from you as you approach them, leaving you with the gloom of day-to-day reality. How, then, should the parties involved go about the mission of making the promises inherent in the new situation a reality rather than a Fata Morgana? The two first steps are: empowering the emerging new-old moderate Palestinian leadership through free democratic elections and creating a significantly improved security environment, free of the devastating effects of terror. Indeed, the security and political challenges need to be addressed simultaneously since they are intertwined. This article will discuss in detail the latter challenge and will suggest a phased approach toward a stable calm. Securing a violence-free environment (in relative, Middle Eastern terms) is essential. We have witnessed time and again how violence cripples Palestinian politics and undermines the prospects of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. A violence-heavy environment puts tremendous pressure on both Palestinian and Israeli decisionmaking, narrowing the leeway for any compromise, and forcing short-term, emotionally-driven decisions over long-term, rationally-driven ones. Holding free, fair Palestinian elections, enabling smooth Israeli disengagement from Gaza and northern West Bank, and giving a chance to Israeli-Palestinian re-engagement and future relations all require a violence-free environment.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

219. Post-Arafat Transition: Upcoming Palestinian Elections

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the Palestinians seek to sort out the post-Arafat succession, ostensibly the first order of business is presidential elections. The Palestinian Authority (PA) has said it would hold presidential elections on January 9, 2005. However, making the election successful may require prior commitment to a cease fire, which in turn requires understandings among Palestinian factions accepted by Israel; this would be necessary to ensure peaceful conditions on the ground and the absence of Israeli military interruption during the election itself and the preceding campaign. According to the London-based Arab daily al-sharq al-Awsat, Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen), former Palestinian premier and newly named chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization drove home this point in two rounds of talks with Palestinian rejectionist groups over the last week. Abu Mazen is quoted as saying, "We need a safe, secure and calm internal situation, so we can hold elections. There is no possibility of holding elections while we are in a state of war and violent struggle. Elections need a secure environment that will allow for it to be done in a free and fair manner. Elections require freedom of movement and transportation to reach the ballot boxes and ensuring the participation of citizens." Indeed, there have been a variety of quotes from rejectionist leaders saying they may be willing to adhere to a unilateral ceasefire, but so far, there has been no definitive word from the main rejectionist group, Hamas. There have been a variety of reports that Hamas would agree to a ceasefire, but it seems that it will only if Israel accepts it as well. Israel may respect a truce brokered by Egypt among the Palestinian factions just as it consented to one during the summer of 2003. At the same time, it will be concerned that its acceptance not be exploited by undisciplined radicals in a way that ties Israel's hands and makes it vulnerable to attack. The last ceasefire fell apart because of differing understandings of its terms among the key protagonists. Unless that lesson is learned another truce is likely to fall apart, too. Another prerequisite for elections is that Abu Mazen needs to receive the nomination of the dominant Fatah party. Abu Mazen's nomination could easily be a formality, since so far, there is no real opposition. Yet, Fatah elections, while recognized by many as necessary, might be resisted by an Old Guard seeking to preserve its power. The issue of Fatah elections has been a dominant motif of the Young Guard. They believe that a combination of elections on all levels will have the cleansing effect of ridding the PA of old cronies of Yasser Arafat, who were beneficiaries of corruption. Moreover, it will inject new blood into a calcified system.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Czech Republic

220. In the Wake of Arafat: Palestinian Politics, Disengagement, and U.S. Policy

Author:
David Makovsky, Aaron David Miller, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A transfer of power within the Palestinian Authority, coupled with the Israeli disengagement from Gaza, presents both challenges and opportunities for reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The preconditions of past peace treaties between Israel and its Arab neighbors have demonstrated the necessity for calm on the ground and strong leaders who can force their constituents to accept peace. Unfortunately, the past four years of fighting, the lack of strong leadership, and the asymmetry of power between the Israelis and Palestinians all act as bulwarks against necessary change. The situation is complicated by the need to prevent Hamas and local warlords from expanding their power. Nevertheless, from the Israeli perspective, there are some opportunities for change. The disengagement plan proves that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon understands that Israel cannot sustain the settlements, while the continued construction of the West Bank fence presents opportunities for new negotiations.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

221. After Arafat: Challenges Ahead

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The convergence of Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene after four decades of domination and the imminent Israeli disengagement from Gaza (which will include the removal of settlements for the first time since 1967) represents a unique opportunity for Israeli-Palestinian relations. Arafat leaves behind a huge leadership void. With such prolonged centralized control over Palestinian affairs, he was everything in one man. He was the glue holding together all strata of Palestinian society—those living inside and outside the territories, Gazans and West Bankers, older and younger generations of activists, Islamists and leftists. He was the head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Palestinian Authority, and the Fatah movement, and he personally controlled political, security, and economic decisionmaking as well as enormous funds. Many forces are likely to attempt to fill the vacuum and share in the inheritance. There are already signs of the emergence of a collective leadership composed of the veteran Fatah leadership, headed by Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) and Ahmad Qurei (a.k.a. Abu Ala) and supported by Fatah activists of the intermediate generation. They will divide Arafat's powers and responsibilities among themselves and seek to stabilize their rule based on the collective desire to preserve national unity. Over time, however, the internal contest over spoils and policies is likely to surface and threaten the new leadership. The imminent Israeli disengagement from Gaza, which is deeply dividing Palestinian society, will only add to the challenge.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

222. Domestic Political Challenges in the Israel-Palestinian Arena: Options for Sharon

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Two major developments have occurred within the past week in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. First, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon achieved an initial victory on October 26, when the Knesset voted in favor of disengagement from GazaNa significant step that has already created both opportunities and challenges. The vote was the first of many to come on the subject of Gaza withdrawal; the next such item on the parliament's agenda will be addressed on November 3, with a preliminary reading of a bill regarding compensation for Gaza settlers. Second, Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat's sudden hospitalization in Paris has raised new questions about Palestinian succession.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

223. A Decade of Israeli-Jordanian Peace: An Untold Economic Success Story

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ten years on, the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan has weathered a number of storms, including the passing away of King Hussein, four years of Israeli-Palestinian armed struggle, and war in Iraq. Despite considerable domestic anti-peace pressure on the Jordanian regime (nurtured by Islamist elements) and strained Israeli-Jordanian political relations, the two countries have developed impressive security and economic relations. The economic field in particular offers a ray of hope for the future, exemplifying how things could and should be done to enhance peace.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

224. Between Amman and Jerusalem: Reflections on Making Peace . . . And Making Peace Work

Author:
Efraim Halevy and Fayiz Tarawneh
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Jordan's ultimate strategic objective is peace in the Middle East. While the Jordan-Israel treaty remains seminal in importance for the Middle East and beyond, the continued bloodshed in the region sobers the anniversary celebration. The Jordan-Israel treaty reflected the courage and vision of King Hussein and Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. Reaching agreement on this treaty was not always an easy process. The initial talks between the two countries in September 1993 resulted in a stalemate. The second round of talks in April 1994 was more successful, but when the United States was invited to serve as a guarantor, Washington balked at the idea of a Jordan-Israel treaty. Nevertheless, throughout the negotiations, Hussein and Rabin both demonstrated farsighted leadership and deep convictions about the absolute necessity of peace. They understood that they had to view each other as partners, not adversaries, and deal with each other directly. There is a place for third-party mediation and negotiation, but only when all other options have been exhausted and talks are at a standstill. The Jordan-Israel treaty and the Oslo negotiations are good examples of the efficacy of direct communication in peace talks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

225. The Palestinian Intifada: Lessons and Prospects (Part II)

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In late October 2004, the Israeli parliament will debate Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for "disengagement" from Gaza and the northern West Bank. This plan was born of Israel's experience over the course of the four-year-old Palestinian intifada. Understanding the rationale for disengagement requires a review of the lessons that Israel has learned from this conflict.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

226. Terror on the UN Payroll?

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On October 4, 2004, Commissioner-General of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) Peter Hansen unapologetically admitted to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) that the UN employs members of Hamas. "Oh, I am sure that there are Hamas members on the UNRWA payroll," Hansen stated, "and I don't see that as a crime." The fact that Palestinian terrorist groups have increasingly used civilian cover to facilitate their activities remains undisputed (notwithstanding the recent spat between Israel and the UN over drone reconnaissance pictures depicting what Israeli officials claimed were Hamas operatives transporting Qassam missiles in a UN ambulance, but which now appear to have been merely stretchers). In several documented cases, Palestinian terrorists have exploited employment with UN and other agencies to support their groups' activities.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

227. The Palestinian Intifada (Part I): Palestinian Lessons and Prospects

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Palestinian intifada against Israel, this week entering its fifth year, has wreaked havoc on both Israelis and Palestinians. In Palestinian quarters, it has provoked considerable soul-searching about the wisdom of resorting to terrorism as a tool in the confrontation with Israel. Yasser Arafat remains the Palestinians' paramount political leader, though his standing is diminished at home and abroad. Israel managed to considerably reduce the level and volume of terror against it, but also decided to disengage from Gaza.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

228. Despite Party Setbacks, Sharon Accelerates Disengagement Strategy

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite being rebuffed again by the Likud Party two weeks ago, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon has been undeterred in pursuing disengagement. In publicly broadcast remarks, he informed his fractious parliamentary faction that he was planning to accelerate the timing of his plan for withdrawal from Gaza and four West Bank settlements by holding a cabinet vote not in March 2005, as had been expected, but on October 24 of this year. The actual removal of settlements would follow once the measure passed the Knesset. Having just returned from Israel and the West Bank, I came away with a distinct set of impressions regarding Sharon's motivations, the political levers he believes he has at his disposal in dealing with opponents inside and outside Likud, and the coalition configurations that he is weighing as he pursues his strategy to make disengagement a reality.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

229. The Threat of Jewish Terror in Israel and the West Bank

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Julie Sawyer
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In 1995, Jewish extremist Yigal Amir caught Israeli society off guard when he assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in an effort to derail the Labor government's pursuit of a peace accord with the Palestinian Authority (PA). Today, Israeli society is coming to terms with a similarly acute Jewish extremist threat to the life of a prime minister; this time, however, the target is the Likud Party's hawkish Ariel Sharon. Although the prospect of right-wing Jewish elements targeting a right-wing politician may surprise some, Jewish extremist violence has actually been on the rise over the past several years.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

230. Prospects of Israeli Disengagement: A Status Report

Author:
Dennis Ross and Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is absolutely determined to carry out disengagement despite the political problems within his own party. The demographic issue of ensuring a long-term Jewish democratic majority in Israel and the associated political pressure has fueled his determination to proceed with disengagement.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

231. Unilaterally Constructed Barriers in Contested Areas

Author:
David Makovsky and Ben Thein
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague is expected to issue an advisory opinion this Friday, July 9, on the international legality of Israel's security fence. Although advisory opinions are often sought from the ICJ before an international body has made up its mind on an issue, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly referred the matter to the ICJ after it had already condemned the Israeli move. Given the UN General Assembly vote on December 8, 2003, by a ninety-to-eight margin with seventy-four abstentions, a comparable number of states were expected to offer briefs to the ICJ. However, this was not the case.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

232. Israel's Security Fence: Effective in Reducing Suicide Attacks from the Northern West Bank

Author:
Zohar Palti
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The International Court of Justice is expected to rule this Friday, July 9, on the legality of Israel's security fence. The Palestinians strongly oppose the security fence, claiming that the fence negatively affects them. Israel is now seeking to address their concerns through a variety of means relating to the route of the fence and to the creation of a humanitarian office to minimize the impact of the fence on the Palestinians. At the same time, it is indisputable that the fence is succeeding in its main objective of minimizing the risk of infiltration to Israel by suicide bombers in the northern West Bank. The entire fence is expected to be completed by the end of next year.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

233. Assessing Hizballah's West Bank Foothold

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Zohar Palti
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When the IDF withdrew from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Hizballah realized that it had to change direction somewhat, primarily because it had lost its avowed justification (and any hint of international legitimacy) for carrying out attacks from Lebanon. Accordingly, Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, the group's secretary-general, instantly changed his rhetoric, focusing less on Lebanon and more on Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. In one speech, for example, he told Palestinians that it took Hizballah eighteen years to force Israel out of Lebanon, and that they could accomplish the same feat in even less time through armed struggle and suicide bombings.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

234. Sharon's Disengagement Plan: A Likud Perspective

Author:
Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 6, the Israeli government approved a plan for unilateral separation by a 14 to 7 vote. The plan includes complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip (with the exception of the so-called "Philadelphi Corridor" on the Egypt-Gaza border) and from certain West Bank settlements. It is scheduled to be implemented beginning in March 2005 and should be completed by the end of that year.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

235. After the Likud Referendum: The Future of the Sharon Government

Author:
Yosef (Tommy) Lapid
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 17, 2004, Israeli justice minister Yosef (Tommy) Lapid addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Lapid became head of the Shinui Party in 2000. Under his leadership, Shinui has rapidly grown in popularity and is now the third-largest faction in the 120-member Knesset and the second-largest in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's coalition. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Recent polls show that 70 to 80 percent of Israelis support Sharon's Gaza withdrawal initiative. Therefore, they are unlikely to accept the Likud Party referendum of May 2, 2004, rejecting this initiative. At the same time, Israel cannot afford to allow a post-withdrawal vacuum to emerge in the territories, which the Iranians could potentially fill (Tehran supports Hizballah, which in turn supplies Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad [PIJ]). Therefore, the withdrawal initiative must be altered somewhat from its original concept. Such a change would allow Sharon to say that he is accepting the ruling of his party while nevertheless moving forward with disengagement. His Gaza plan may turn out to be a three-stage process that is acceptable to Shinui. In any case, if an alternative formula is not proposed soon, Shinui will be forced to reconsider its participation in the government. We cannot sit idly and hope that Washington holds out on Israel's behalf against the interventionist tendencies—or so-called "goodwill"—of the Quartet. Shinui's formula for conflict management differs from that of both Sharon and the Israeli left, coming as it does from the center of the Israeli political spectrum. Shinui is well aware of the Roadmap's stipulation that measures must be taken against terrorism. Although Israel should indeed resume the reciprocal processes outlined in the Roadmap, it must also recognize that Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Abu Ala cannot dismantle Hamas and PIJ under the current circumstances without causing a civil war. Yasir Arafat does not want to make peace. Hence, Abu Ala must unite the PA's sixteen security organizations under one entity, which he should then head rather than allowing these forces to remain under Arafat's leadership. In the past, Shinui opposed talking to Abu Ala until he put a stop to terrorism, but the party has changed its stance for the time being. When Likud rejected Sharon's initiative, Shinui realized that the right was attempting to create a stalemate. Shinui cannot subscribe to any such policy. If these delay tactics continue, international parties may attempt to enter the arena both politically and physically. Israelis must therefore take the initiative to speak with Abu Ala based on the acknowledgment that he is unable to wage a comprehensive fight against terrorist organizations. If Likud does manage to move forward with disengagement in the near term, however, Shinui will rethink its policy toward Abu Ala.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza

236. Political Troubles between Turkey and Israel? Implications of Booming Bilateral Trade for the Two Countries and the Middle East

Author:
Pemra Hazbay
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following Israel's recent raid in Rafah, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel's actions as "state terrorism" while Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul hinted that strains had emerged in the Turkish-Israeli relationship. In general, Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) has lately adopted an alarmingly critical attitude toward Israel. Will Turkey seek to alter its ties with Israel? From an economic point of view, such a development would seem highly unlikely; Turkey ranks thirteenth on Israel's list of trading partners, while Israel ranks ninth among Turkey's trading partners. Yet, the question remains: do the deep economic ties between Turkey and Israel (which also share close political and military relations) provide a reason for optimism that economic initiatives can help improve political relations elsewhere in the region?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

237. Learning from Past Experience: Sinai to Gaza

Author:
Ben Thein
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Amid anticipation that Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon will soon get his Gaza withdrawal plan back on track, it is important to examine the only other instance of Israeli settlement evacuation—namely, Israel's withdrawal from Sinai in the wake of the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt. How was evacuation handled at that time? Where did the settlers go? What were their options? Moreover, in light of the Sinai withdrawal, what role, if any, might the international community play in a Gaza withdrawal? What legal factors will the Israeli government face in its efforts to move settlers from their homes?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

238. A Roadmap for Revived Palestinian Reform?

Author:
Nabil Amr
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 13, 2004, Nabil Amr addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Amr, an elected member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, served in previous Palestinian Authority cabinets as minister of information and minister for parliamentary affairs. A former member of the Palestinian delegation to peace talks with Israel, he is currently a visiting fellow at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Norway, Palestine, and Arabia

239. Security, Peace, and Israel's Strategy of Disengagement

Author:
Giora Eiland
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 7, 2004, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland of the Israel Defense Forces addressed The Washington Institute's Nineteenth Annual Soref Symposium. General Eiland is Israel's national security advisor. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

240. Hamas Ceasefire Proposal: Peace or Pause?

Author:
Jeff Cary
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Has the radical Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas adopted a new, more moderate view on peace with Israel? In recent months, elite news organizations -- from the Economist to National Public Radio -- have highlighted interviews by Hamas leaders such as founder Shaykh Ahmed Yassin suggesting a willingness on the part of the organization to negotiate a "long-term truce" with Israel. On December 1, 2003, Yassin declared that Hamas was "ready to reach or to go with this enemy [Israel] into a long-term . . . truce. But the enemy . . . must pull out from all the Palestinian territories and . . . remove all shapes and kinds of occupation."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

241. Terror At the Hajj

Author:
Anna Robinowitz
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Among the two million Muslims participating in this year's Hajj in Mecca were a relatively small number of Palestinians and Israeli Arabs. While the vast majority of these pilgrims devoted all of their time in Mecca to religious purposes, others participated in meetings with terrorist operatives as well. Indeed, Hamas, Hizballah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have all attempted to recruit future terrorists -- particularly from the coveted Israeli Arab pool -- during the Hajj and lesser pilgrimages to Mecca (or 'umrah). For example, over the past two-and-a-half years, Israeli security forces have arrested two Hizballah terrorists recruited during the Hajj and seven other terrorists recruited while making 'umrah. The fact that terrorist groups of any sort are operating at the Hajj has dangerous implications for the United States. Indeed, it would be naive to assume that al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations targeting U.S. interests are not using Mecca as a convenient and secure location for their own meetings, recruitment, and fundraising.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Mecca

242. Special Policy Forum Report: Will Israel Withdraw From Gaza? A Labor Perspective

Author:
Matan Vilnai
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 11, 2004, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Matan Vilnai addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Vilnai is former deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). From 1989 to 1994, he served as head of the IDF Southern Command, with responsibility for deploying Israeli forces out of Gaza in accordance with the 1994 Gaza-Jericho accord. As a leading member of the Labor Party, he has also served as a senior cabinet minister and member of the Knesset since 1999. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries

243. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects of Israeli Disengagement-- A View From the Opposition

Author:
Shimon Peres
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 23, 2004, Shimon Peres addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Current chairman of Israel's Labor Party, Mr. Peres previously served as that country's prime minister, foreign minister, and defense minister, as well as in numerous other positions during a career that has spanned six decades. For his contributions to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, he received the 1994 Nobel Peace Prize along with the late Yitzhak Rabin and Yasir Arafat. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

244. Is All Quiet on Israel's Northern Front?

Author:
Zohar Palti
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For much of the upcoming presidential election season, the United States will no doubt be preoccupied with domestic affairs on the one hand, and the postwar transition in Iraq on the other. Although Washington undoubtedly hopes for a quiet year in the Middle East, reality might bring less desirable results. In the Arab-Israeli arena, the most significant threat to regional stability (beyond Palestinian terrorism) is the Syria-Hizballah-Iran triangle. Hizballah and Syria appear to be reverting to their traditional pattern of ratcheting up terrorist activity whenever they feel they are being ignored. Unless an effort of some sort is made to halt such escalation, Israel's northern front will become the site of a broader conflict in which neither Israel nor the United States wants to become enmeshed at the moment.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria

245. Assessing Sharon's Gaza Settlement Evacuation Proposal

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Less than a year ago, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon rejected the idea of a unilateral pullback from Gaza, telling Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna that isolated settlements such as Netzarim were equal to Tel Aviv in his eyes. Last week, however, Sharon -- a leading architect of Israel's settlement movement -- declared his intention to authorize plans for a unilateral evacuation of at least seventeen of the twenty Israeli settlements in Gaza. Although some remain unsure whether the prime minister will follow through on this pledge, skepticism regarding Sharon's intentions should be balanced by other considerations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries

246. Arrows for India?

Author:
Richard Speier
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon visits India on September 9-11, he is likely to explore the possible sale of Israeli Arrow antiballistic missiles to New Delhi. The United States, which has provided funds and technology for the Arrow since 1986, has a veto right over sales to third parties. U.S. approval of a sale to India would offer both advantages and disadvantages.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, India, Israel, New Delhi, and Arabia

247. Turkish Water to Israel?

Author:
Ayca Ariyoruk
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A Turkish delegation is expected to be in Israel within the next few weeks, perhaps as early as August 20, to sign an agreement committing Israel to buy 50 million cubic meters (mcm) of water annually from Turkey for the next twenty years. Once the operational details -- price, timeline, and transportation methods -- are worked out, Turkish water will flow to Israel via purpose-built supertankers.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

248. Reading Between the Lines of the Sharm Al-Shaykh Summit

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host, President Hosni Mubarak, offers a revealing look into where U.S. and Arab leaders agree, disagree, and choose to remain ambiguous on critical issues facing the region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

249. Hizballah on the Defensive

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought to Arabs by forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. Now, however, the coalition forces have trampled on this pride: the Iraqi regime collapsed, and Baghdad fell without offering much resistance. Speaking on April 24, Nasrallah warned that "the most dangerous challenge now facing Arabs is the sense of hopelessness and stupor that has followed in the wake of Iraqi occupation." Indeed, on a variety of fronts, Hizballah is suddenly facing a new regional landscape that is inimical to its interests.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Baghdad, Arabia, and Lebanon

250. Trying to Walk a Fine Line? Hizballah's Stakes in the Current War

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Amidst the war in Iraq, the Lebanese group Hizballah has decided not to open up what could have been a "second front" by attacking Israel. This decision should not be mistaken for passivity, however. With the world paying scant attention, Hizballah is seeking to shape Arab public opinion against the United States. It is important to understand the underlying forces that drive Hizballah's campaign against the United States so as to better comprehend the organization's stakes in the Iraq war and its aftermath.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia