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2. EU-South Korea Extend Cooperation Beyond the Economy
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The 10th EU-Republic of Korea Summit, held on 22 May in Seoul, reaffirmed the importance of South Korea as a critical Asian partner of the Union. The meeting also signalled the growing importance of security issues in bilateral relations. South Korea shares the EU’s assessment of Russian aggression against Ukraine and intends to continue to support the invaded country, but not with supplies of military equipment for now. The announcement of a “green” partnership indicates both sides’ willingness to engage in other areas of cooperation, which also will benefit the development of Polish-South Korean relations.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Korea, and Poland
3. Examining Changes in Regional Cooperation in Central Europe from a Polish Perspective
- Author:
- Tomasz Żornaczuk
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Visegrad Group (V4), until recently the most active and multidimensional cooperation platform in Central Europe, does not serve currently to strengthen the voice of the region on the most essential issues concerning its security. This is because Hungary’s stance on Russia’s attack on Ukraine is different than that of its partners. That is why Poland is tightening relations with the other Visegrad countries—Czechia and Slovakia. At the same time, Poland is also intensifying cooperation with the Baltic states, which has its source in joint actions on security and eastern affairs in the years preceding the war.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Visegrad Group, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Central Europe, Slovakia, and Czechia
4. What is the Significance of Prigozhin's Revolt for Russian Security Policy?
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On the night of 23-24 June, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group private military company, which has been fighting in Ukraine and operating elsewhere, stood up to the Russian Ministry of Defence and began an armed march on Moscow. However, in the end he and his forces did not storm the capital, officially as a result of negotiations led by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenka. Prigozhin’s actions will worsen the morale of Russian soldiers and mercenaries fighting in Ukraine but will not change Russia’s hostile actions towards NATO countries.
- Topic:
- NATO, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Yevgeny Prigozhin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
5. EU Development Cooperation Policy Shifts from Charity to Self-interest
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the EU’s development cooperation policy has evolved, moving away from an approach based on poverty eradication and the needs of partner countries to focusing more on its own interests. This change is supported by the majority of EU members. This gives the EU the opportunity to exert strategic influence in the world but risks the loss of its unique identity as an altruistic donor and attractive partner in development cooperation. The change in the Union’s approach is consistent with the position of Poland, which can use it to reform and strengthen its development aid system.
- Topic:
- Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Development Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
6. Syria returns to the Arab League
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The decision to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League (AL) is aimed at Arab states gaining greater control over the situation in the region and reducing external influence, including that of the West. Although the AL imposed a number of obligations on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, such as holding elections, it is doubtful whether the League can enforce them. The organisation’s decision to normalise relations with Syria will be used to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions in counteracting violations of international law, also in the context of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
- Topic:
- International Law, Sanctions, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, Arab League, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
7. Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU
- Author:
- Elzbieta Kaca
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Reconstruction, European Union, Assets, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
8. Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
9. West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- New technologies are an increasingly important element of the Sino-American rivalry in the Persian Gulf. China has become the preferred partner in this area due to, for example, the dominant role of government (vs. private) investment in the technology sector in both China and the Gulf states. The intensification of cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China in the field of new technologies may increase the influence of authoritarian states in setting technological standards.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Investment, Rivalry, and Gulf Cooperation Council
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
10. China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific
11. Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains
- Author:
- Piotr Dzierżanowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Over the past three years, global supply chains have experienced problems on an unprecedented scale. Given the rising political tensions and changes in the perception of the role of the economy in international rivalries, a return to international economic relations based on globalisation and trade liberalisation is highly unlikely. Instead, we will witness a necessary strengthening of supply chains, both at the individual business and national levels. For Western economies, the main challenge will be the reduction of related costs.
- Topic:
- Globalization, European Union, Economy, Business, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
12. Building a Coalition - the U.S. Faces Down Competition with China in the Chip Sector
- Author:
- Damian Wnukowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent months, the U.S. has intensified its international efforts to limit China’s ability to produce the most advanced chips. The result includes the introduction by Japan and the Netherlands of restrictions on the export of modern machines for chip production. In response, China is trying to attract foreign investment and develop its own potential in this sector. The U.S. actions may significantly slow the pace of China’s technological development and economic growth and limit its potential to further strengthen its military capabilities. This may make it difficult for China to support Russia with dual-use products and render possible offensive actions against Taiwan harder.
- Topic:
- Economy, Production, Semiconductors, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
13. South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, BRICS, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and South Africa
14. Lavrov Visits Latin America to Try to Lure It to Russia's Side
- Author:
- Bartłomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 17-21 April, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. During his trip, he argued that the goals and interests of Russia and most Latin American countries coincide. He also repeated false Russian narratives, for example, about the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine, portraying Russia as a victim of the policy of the West. While he used his stay in Brazil to legitimise the Russian narratives, in other countries, it was mainly about consolidating Russia’s ties with their authoritarian regimes, including cooperation on evading sanctions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Narrative, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Latin America
15. U.S. Re-Focuses Arctic Policy-The Consequences for Its Allies
- Author:
- Paweł Markiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration is increasing the U.S. capabilities in countering the effects of climate change in the Arctic, an aim overlapping the rivalry with Russia and China in this region. The U.S. announced increasing investments in infrastructure projects and defence, for example, modernising the Coast Guard’s Arctic fleet. The planned measures provide an opportunity for closer American cooperation with their allies and may mark the beginning of a regional division of labour in the area of shared defence.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Infrastructure, Investment, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America
16. Triggering the Rule-of-Law Conditionality Mechanism against Hungary
- Author:
- Veronika Jóźwiak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The mechanism that makes the payment of funds from the EU budget conditional on compliance with the principles of the rule of law is the newest instrument for protecting the Union’s financial and political interests. The tool allows the European Commission and the EU Council (Council) to exert influence on Member States that violate the fundamental principles of the Community. Triggering it against Hungary might result in a reduction of EU funds to the country as a consequence of rule-of-law violations for the first time in EU history. It is doubtful, however, that this will lead to systemic changes in Hungary.
- Topic:
- European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
17. Refugees from Ukraine Adapting to the European Labour Market
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Due to the length of the war in Ukraine, more and more refugees from this country have decided to take up employment in the EU. Preliminary data indicate that they are integrating into European labour markets faster than refugees from other regions. However, the mismatch between their jobs and qualifications remains a challenge. Despite the refugees’ inclusion, the deteriorating economic situation in Europe may lead to negative perceptions in host countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, European Union, Refugees, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
18. China Adapts Policy in Response to Russia's Aggression Against Ukraine
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China perceives the Russian aggression against Ukraine as an expression of resistance to the U.S. and NATO hegemony and an important element of building a new international order that marginalises the West. Based on this, China is strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia, striving to weaken the international position of the U.S., the EU, and their partners, while testing reactions to a possible escalation of Chinese actions towards Taiwan, for example. President Xi Jinping expressed this policy course during his March visit to Russia. At the same time, China is trying to gain support from the countries of the Global South. This approach means a continuation of China’s assertive policy towards the European Union, among others.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
19. With Charisma, Stick, and Carrot: Reviewing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Diplomacy
- Author:
- Zuzanna Nowak and Stefania Kolarz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, European Union, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Europe
20. Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise
- Author:
- Szymon Zaręba
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Human Rights, International Law, Courts, and Litigation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Global Focus
21. Implications of the Incursions into U.S. and Canadian Airspace
- Author:
- Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In the first half of February, a series of serious incidents happened in the airspace of the U.S. and Canada involving shootdowns of four objects, with at least one confirmed as a Chinese balloon, likely used for intelligence. The U.S. administration is conducting an investigation to explain the various platforms, the equipment onboard, and their mission. Because further incidents cannot be excluded, some changes in the rhetoric of the Chinese government should be expected, as well as a higher readiness of air defence networks of the powers.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Territory, and Airspace
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, North America, and United States of America
22. EU Seeks Greater Transparency in Wake of EP Corruption Scandal
- Author:
- Tomasz Zając
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The European Parliament (EP) corruption scandal, which began with the arrests of then current or former MEPs last December, showed that the mechanisms in place to ensure institutional transparency do not sufficiently protect against the influence of non-EU countries. In addition, the parliament’s internal standards are of limited effectiveness as penalties for non-compliance are not very severe and rarely applied. The effect of the scandal will most likely be to further increase the transparency of EP conduct. The probability of a new body to monitor ethical issues in EU institutions has also increased.
- Topic:
- Corruption, European Union, Transparency, and European Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe
23. EU Member States Take a Position on the Emigration of Russians
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł and Stefania Kolarz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Hundreds of thousands of Russians have decided to emigrate as Vladimir Putin’s regime has increased repression of citizens with dissenting views of the government or unwilling to participate in the war in Ukraine. Some of them are trying to enter the EU, justifying it with humanitarian reasons. However, the Member States, which decide the granting of visas and residence permits, have different practices. Elaborating a unified approach remains a major challenge for the EU.
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, Civilians, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
24. Member States Seek to Unmask Russian Espionage in the EU
- Author:
- Elzbieta Kaca
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russian intelligence services are actively developing their networks of spies in the EU. While Member States are trying to counteract this and are undertaking coordinated action, many of them have limited operational capacities. Their cooperation at the EU level is hampered by differences in threat perceptions and a lack of mutual trust. With the aim of developing common competences, EU diplomacy can inform Member State societies about the growing scale of espionage threats by publishing regular reports on this subject.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, European Union, Espionage, and Threat Perception
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
25. Evolution, not Revolution: Japan Revises Security Policy
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In December last year, the government of Kishida Fumio adopted three documents adapting Japan’s security policy to the deteriorating international situation. Its security and national defence strategies highlight challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea, as well as an increase in non-military threats. A third document specifies the need for a record increase in defence spending. Japan’s readiness to deepen cooperation with the U.S. and European countries and its criticism in its assessment of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine create the conditions for the further development of Japan’s cooperation with NATO and the Polish-Japanese dialogue on security.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Asia, and North Korea
26. Iceland Makes Changes to Foreign Policy after Russia's Aggression against Ukraine
- Author:
- Veronika Jóźwiak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine forced Iceland to adjust its foreign policy. As a small country without armed forces but covered by security guarantees as a NATO member, it wants to strengthen ties with its allies while resigning from contacts with Russia. Its partnership with the U.S. and the Nordic countries, as well as activity in international organisations and relations with Central European EU Member States, including Poland, have become even more important to the country.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Iceland
27. The Impact of Finland's and Sweden's Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance
- Author:
- Wojciech Lorenz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Finland, North America, and Sweden
28. Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The inability of local and international forces to defeat the jihadists in the Sahel region has led to grassroots initiatives to reach an understanding with them. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, preparations are also underway for similar talks by governments, with the hope of including some extremists in the political mainstream. This may help with stabilising the volatile situation, but it carries the risk of strengthening the influence of the radicals.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Negotiation, Islamism, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso
29. Difficult Debate on an Intellectual Property Protection Waiver to Fight COVID-19
- Author:
- Szymon Zaręba
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The negotiations currently taking place at the WTO on the suspension of, among others, patent protection for vaccines and medicines against COVID-19, are at a standstill. This creates a risk of widening the rift between developing countries, which mostly support the idea, and some developed countries, which oppose it. It also makes it more difficult to increase the supply of patented items, particularly of vaccines, to an extent undermining other efforts by countries and international organisations to contain the pandemic. It is in the interest of Poland and the EU to overcome this impasse.
- Topic:
- Intellectual Property/Copyright, European Union, Vaccine, COVID-19, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Global Focus
30. Humanitarian Catastrophe in Afghanistan: A Crisis by Choice
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- One of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises is taking place in Afghanistan and it is largely the result of flawed assumptions of Western policy following the Taliban’s seizure of power. The West’s suspension of development aid has led to the collapse of the economy and to hunger for millions of Afghans. Instead of forcing the Taliban to respect human rights, the actions will have the opposite effect—a humanitarian catastrophe, mass migration, and a failed state. The European Union may soon face these effects directly, so it should take steps to resume development cooperation and avert the worst-case scenario.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Taliban, Economy, Development Aid, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
31. Prospects for the Launch of the Digital Yuan
- Author:
- Oskar Szydłowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Among the digital currency projects developed by major economies, the Chinese digital yuan (e-CNY) is the most advanced. After pilot projects in selected Chinese regions, the biggest test was to be at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The spread of the digital yuan will enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to expand its digital authoritarianism through increased surveillance of citizens’ finances. It may also increase the Chinese currency’s share of international transactions in the region. The success of the e-CNY should accelerate the ECB’s work on a privacy-preserving digital euro.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Digital Currency, and Yuan
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
32. Before the Invasion: The Russian-Belarusian Allied Resolve Exercises
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 10-20 February, Belarus hosted the active phase of the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres Allied Resolve, after which Russian troops remained in the country. The drills preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February. The scenario was an extension of last year’s Zapad exercises and simulated actions against the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank and Ukraine. The manoeuvres showed Russia’s ability to deploy units over long distances (more than 10,000 km) and the high interoperability of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. The growing military integration of Belarus and Russia, along with the decision to leave Russian military units in Belarus, is a challenge for NATO in the context of defending its Eastern Flank and its policy towards Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Conflict, and Military Exercises
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus
33. Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, and Eritrea
34. The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU's Arab Neighbourhood
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Algeria, and Mediterranean
35. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine
36. Determinants of China's Policy Towards the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s position on the war in Ukraine depends mainly on the stabilisation of China’s internal situation before the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress planned for autumn this year. By holding NATO responsible for the conflict, the CCP reinforces its rhetoric about the legitimacy of the rivalry with the U.S. China’s signals on supporting peace negotiations and not helping Russia to circumvent sanctions are intended to protect China from possible Western secondary sanctions. The prospect of further Sino-Russian cooperation should induce the EU to reduce its economic interdependence with China.
- Topic:
- War, Sanctions, European Union, Rivalry, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
37. The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the past several years, Russia has been strengthening ties with the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has developed cooperation with other Latin American countries as an investor in the energy sector, a supplier of weapons and Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine, and in other areas. Most Latin American governments have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but they have not imposed sanctions on Russia. It is in the EU’s interest to persuade its Latin American partners of the validity of the restrictions and to work together to mitigate the negative economic effects of the war.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, War, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Vaccine
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Latin America, Nicaragua, and Venezuela
38. The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption
- Author:
- Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
39. A New Rapprochement in Romanian-Moldovan Relations
- Author:
- Jakub Pieńkowski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since Maia Sandu became president of Moldova in December 2020, Romanian-Moldovan relations have steadily improved. In November 2021 she met for a fourth time with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, signing a “roadmap” of cooperation. Both countries recognise that a linguistic, historical, and cultural community binds them, however the challenge is to move from declarations to the implementation of projects, especially in infrastructure. Romania’s effective involvement in such projects, given its special ties with Moldova, may contribute to the success of its pro-European transformation, which is also supported by Poland.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Rapprochement
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Moldova, and Romania
40. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus
- Author:
- Łukasz Ogrodnik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus
41. Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The presidential election in South Korea will be held on 9 March. The main candidates are representatives of the largest political parties: Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition conservative People Power Party. A Lee victory would largely mean the continuation of the current government’s foreign policy—striving for dialogue with North Korea, maintaining a strong alliance with the U.S., and stable relations with China. If Yoon wins, it would increase the likelihood of stronger support of South Korea for the U.S. in its rivalry with China and increased tensions in relations with North Korea. Both candidates condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but draw different conclusions from the war.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Presidential Elections, and Campaigning
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
42. The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU's Economy
- Author:
- Melchior Szczepanik
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, War, European Union, Economy, and Inflation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
43. Belarus's Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, War, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus
44. Deficiency and Elusion: Relations between Israel and Ukraine
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014 broadened the political dimension of Israeli-Ukrainian relations. However, Israel’s cautious attitude towards Russia remains a burden for mutual relations with Ukraine. Since the renewed Russian aggression in February, Ukraine has diplomatically engaged Israel, but the limited nature of the latter’s support has led to criticism from Ukraine. The scale of the current assistance and pledged aid for the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as Israel’s policy towards further tightening of sanctions against Russia, will be key to future relations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
45. Lebanon after the Elections
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
46. The UK's First Comprehensive Space Strategy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The development of a comprehensive space strategy that encompasses civil and military aspects is in line with the British global strategy adopted last year. Its main goal is to strengthen the domestic space sector in the face of increasing competition on world markets and to make the United Kingdom one of the leaders in this field. The implementation of the strategy will be supported by increased funding, but without setting investment priorities and establishing closer cooperation with allies, including European countries, it will be difficult to achieve the objectives.
- Topic:
- Markets, Space, Strategic Competition, and Military
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
47. The EU's Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Gas, and Energy Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, and Bulgaria
48. New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz and Zuzanna Nowak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and Austria
49. Russia's Wartime Censorship and Propaganda
- Author:
- Agnieszka Legucka
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.
- Topic:
- War, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Censorship
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
50. French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Amanda Dziubińska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell well short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 required of the chamber’s 577 seats). For both radical right-wing and left-wing voters, the limitation of the president’s power was of more importance than ideological differences. As a result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw an unprecedented result, becoming the main opposition party. In the most likely scenario of a coalition with Republicans or moderate left and right politicians, the presidential camp, as the greatest political force in the Assembly, will seek to continue the current foreign policy and retain its representatives in key ministries.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Emmanuel Macron, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
51. Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government
- Author:
- Łukasz Jasiński
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.
- Topic:
- Government, War, Domestic Politics, Inflation, and Olaf Scholz
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
52. Cyberattacks Integral to Russia's Political and Military Strategies
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- To destabilise democratic countries that support Ukraine, Russia employs cyberattacks on the target state’s public institutions and critical infrastructure. These activities have clearly intensified since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 and is in line with the implementation of Russian military strategy. In this context, it would be beneficial within the EU and NATO to develop joint action plans to respond to future threats in cyberspace.
- Topic:
- NATO, Infrastructure, European Union, Cybersecurity, Cyberspace, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
53. The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Bombing
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
54. The Schengen Zone: While Croatia Joins, Further Enlargement Faces Challenges
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In December, EU interior ministers unanimously supported the expansion of the Schengen zone to include Croatia. At the same time, the Council did not agree on the membership of Romania and Bulgaria. The former was opposed by Austria, and the latter by both Austria and the Netherlands. Although Croatia’s smooth integration into Schengen may weaken the arguments of sceptics of further enlargement, without deep reforms of the entire system and the EU’s migration policy, it will be very difficult to obtain consent for membership of other candidates.
- Topic:
- Reform, European Union, Regional Integration, Schengen, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Croatia
55. Russian Attacks May Prompt Increased Refugee Flows from Ukraine
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia is continuing its intensive attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. These are deliberate actions that violate international humanitarian law and are aimed at breaking the morale of Ukrainian society. Power outages mean that many towns and villages are not only without heating but also without water. Further devastation and the difficulty of repairs could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. Most of the population will try to survive the winter in their current residences or by resettling in smaller towns. Increased refugee movement across borders, especially to Poland, is also possible.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
56. Microchips and Semiconductors: The U.S. Seeks Autonomy
- Author:
- Andrzej Dąbrowski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The United States has turned to support of the domestic microchip industry in response to the increased risk of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, one of the leading producers, as well as to address disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A law on this passed with bipartisan consent and is intended to help finance a more resilient American sector towards global changes in manufacturing these components. Thanks to the CHIPS Act, the U.S. can reduce its dependence on microchip imports and undermine China’s ability to dominate the market.
- Topic:
- Markets, Science and Technology, Autonomy, Industry, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Microchips
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
57. The Waning India-Russia Partnership is an Unexpected Effect of the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- twitter The Waning India-Russia Partnership is an Unexpected Effect of the War in Ukraine 174 08.11.2022 India has not condemned Russia for its aggression against Ukraine, which stems from historical ideological ties, as well as their strategic and military cooperation. However, the war has led to unfavourable changes from India’s point of view—the weakening of Russia, the collapse of its cooperation with the West, and a growing dependence on China. As a result, Russia is diminishing in importance as a key partner of India, including a supplier of weapons and technology. In the long run, closer cooperation between India and the U.S. and EU countries in the field of security and energy will help to move India away from Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, South Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and India
58. Cooperation and Peril: Germany Attempts a Policy Balance with China
- Author:
- Łukasz Jasiński
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the resulting disruption of supply chains have intensified the ongoing debate in Germany over the preferred shape of German-Chinese relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government sees China as both a partner and rival. Reducing dependence on China is challenging due to its scale and the strength of the pro-China business lobby. This unsteady position will cause tensions in relations with partners, including the U.S., and conflicts within the governing coalition. Germany will continue to develop trade relations with China while blocking Chinese investment in critical sectors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Trade, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Germany
59. North Korea Continues to Develop Its Nuclear Forces
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- North Korea is conducting further missile tests to check new types of weapons and increase the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The adoption of a new nuclear doctrine that allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes also serves this purpose. North Korea is taking advantage of the period of tension between the U.S., Russia, and China, which prevent the UN Security Council from adopting further sanctions. In this situation, the U.S. and its allies should strengthen defence and deterrence capabilities against North Korea and set achievable goals to reduce the risk of escalation of tensions before possible negotiations.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
60. Japan Focuses Policy on Economic Security
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Japan is stepping up efforts to increase its economic security. In August, some new regulations came into force aimed at strengthening, among others, the resilience of supply chains and developing technological potential. Japan is thus responding to the challenges of China’s policy, the U.S.-China rivalry, and global technological progress. Improving economic security will require the government to cooperate with both Japanese business and international partners, including the U.S. and the EU.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Regulation, Supply Chains, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
61. GCC Countries, Seeking Food Security, Eye Agricultural Investments
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The growing consumption of food in the Gulf states is leading to the acquisition of foreign farmlands. This practice increases the Gulf states’ influence in African countries and the European neighbourhood. The competitiveness of their agricultural sector is also growing in relation to the less innovative European agriculture thanks to the development of technologies responding to difficult climatic conditions.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Food Security, Investment, Innovation, and Gulf Cooperation Council
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
62. Sub-Saharan Africa May Be a New Source of Gas for the EU
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In order to become independent from supplies of energy resources from Russia, EU countries are intensively looking for alternative gas import opportunities, including from Sub-Saharan Africa. This direction may become an important element of European diversification, but its development requires external investments and improvement and expansion of the existing infrastructure. European companies and the EU itself can play a key role in this regard.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, European Union, Gas, and Diversification
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa
63. Israel and Lebanon Conclude Maritime Agreement
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka and Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 27 October, Israel and Lebanon, which do not have official relations, concluded an agreement with U.S. mediation on the maritime border of the two states and the exploitation of gas deposits. The agreement will serve to increase stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, although the direct benefits for Lebanon’s economy depend on an improvement in the political situation.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Gas, Economy, Political stability, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
64. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?
- Author:
- Przemysław Biskup
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth
65. Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The ongoing crisis in the Turkish economy poses a risk of destabilisation in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The intensification of the pauperisation of the society and brain drain may have an impact on the results of next year’s elections. The long-lasting economic difficulties are also prompting Türkiye to normalise relations with Arab states and Israel.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
66. India Emerges as a Key Power and Important Partner for the EU in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- India’s commissioning of its second aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, in September this year reaffirms the country’s aim to play a leading role in the Indo-Pacific. The country’s importance in the region will depend mainly on the course of the India-China rivalry, an increase in its economic potential, and the support provided to it by foreign partners. The convergence of goals in the Indo-Pacific strengthens India’s partnership with the U.S. and opens up opportunities for intensifying cooperation with the EU, especially in terms of connectivity, climate change, and the development of capacity in maritime domain awareness.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific
67. Right-Wing Coalition Wins Parliamentary Elections in Italy
- Author:
- Łukasz Maślanka
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The elections to Italy’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate on 25 September were won by the Centre-Right coalition led by the Brothers of Italy (FdI) party headed by Giorgia Meloni. The winning party’s won over voters by its decision to remain in opposition to the government of Mario Draghi, which was supported by all other parties. The right-wing’s victory was also facilitated by the inability of the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5 Star Movement (M5S) to form a coalition, which split the votes of left-wing voters. The biggest challenge for the FdI-led coalition will be to simultaneously maintain the support of the voters, good relations with the EU, and the confidence of the financial markets.
- Topic:
- European Union, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
68. Taliban Tightening Grip on Afghanistan One Year after Taking Power
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since the seizure of Kabul on 15 August 2021, the Taliban have been consolidating power by recreating the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan of the 1990s. The Taliban government’s limiting of human rights, especially of women, and constant ties to terrorist organisations reduce the chances of international recognition. Afghanistan has not yet become a centre of global terrorism or a source of mass migration, but the suspension of economic support has deepened the humanitarian crisis. Western partners, including the EU and the U.S., should pursue humanitarian aid and consider unfreezing Afghan currency reserves.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Taliban, Domestic Politics, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
69. China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
70. Space Technologies Key to the EU's Fight Against Climate Change
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Launched in March 2022, the Destination Earth initiative to create a digital model of the Earth confirms the importance of space technologies in the EU’s green and digital transformations. The consequences of climate change, such as droughts, fires, and floods, reduce the security of citizens and cause economic losses. The dissemination of applications using satellite data will increase the effectiveness of climate action and sustainable development in the EU.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
71. Egypt Faces Severe Economic Problems
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In August, a year before the end of his term of office, Tarek Amer, head of the Egyptian Central Bank, resigned. This was a consequence of the deepening economic crisis caused by a decline in the country’s currency reserves and the impact of global problems on Egypt, which is dependent on food imports. Capital-intensive investments, mainly in the energy and real estate sectors, will exacerbate Egypt’s situation. Given the size of its population, economic collapse would have a significant destabilising impact on the EU’s southern neighbourhood.
- Topic:
- Economics, Currency, Economic Stability, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
72. The Political and Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- After months of mass protests over the drastic deterioration of living conditions in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country on 13 July and resigned . This marks the end of almost two decades of rule by the Rajapaksa clan, but it does not end the political crisis that will complicate the way to economic recovery. The change of power on the island will limit China’s influence and open up opportunities for India and Western countries.
- Topic:
- Politics, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
73. What Next for Georgia's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Arkadiusz Legieć
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- During the European Council summit on 23 June, Georgia was not granted EU candidate status, unlike Ukraine and Moldova, and received only the prospect of EU accession. Georgia is the most pro-European state in the South Caucasus. The effectiveness of its Euro-Atlantic foreign policy course is hampered by internal political polarisation and Russia’s policies towards the region. Georgia’s continued cooperation with the EU and NATO will depend primarily on its willingness to implement reforms and the development of an internal consensus between the government and opposition.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Domestic Politics, Polarization, Russia-Ukraine War, and European Council
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia and Georgia
74. Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
75. States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution
- Author:
- Szymon Zaręba
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Pollution, and Plastic
- Political Geography:
- Poland and Global Focus
76. Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey—after the EU and the U.S.—one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East
77. Acceleration of Climate Policy and the Energy Transformation in Slovakia
- Author:
- Łukasz Ogrodnik
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Eduard Heger government wants to increase the production of energy from renewable sources and nuclear energy. This is evidenced among others by the preparations for the commissioning of two new units of the Mochovce nuclear power plant. Although Visegrad Group states include pronouncements they plan to use nuclear power in their national energy mixes, the difference in those mixes limits the possibilities of formulating regional climate policy and results in a lack of coherence on the EU forum. Hydrogen fuel, the use of which is growing in Slovakia, also remains an untapped potential for regional cooperation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Government, Nuclear Power, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Central Europe and Slovakia
78. Germany-U.S. Relations: A Return to the Strategic Partnership
- Author:
- Lidia Gibadło and Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Nord Stream 2
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America
79. The Specificity of Hungarian-Israeli Relations
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz and Veronika Jóźwiak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s premiership has become one of Israel’s most important European partners. This is reflected in the diplomatic support for Israel by Hungary, mainly at the EU level. Close relations with Israel serve Hungary’s foreign and domestic policy goals and at the same time weaken the effectiveness of the EU’s Middle East policy. However, the new Israeli government may be less open to political cooperation with this country because of earlier criticism of Hungary on, for example, historical issues.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Hungary
80. The Ukrainian Energy Sector at a Crossroads: Opportunities for Poland
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ukraine’s orientation towards the synchronisation of its energy system with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area (CESA) and the need to determine the future of nuclear energy has forced it to settle on an energy transformation strategy. One model may involve replacing nuclear and coal with renewable energy sources (RES), as advocated by Germany. However, a solution assuming the simultaneous development of nuclear, gas, and renewable energy would be more beneficial for Ukraine, and for Poland’s energy security. Poland may promote this solution in Ukraine in cooperation with France, the U.S., and the UK.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Poland
81. Reform of the European Court of Human Rights
- Author:
- Stefania Kolarz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Protocol No. 15 to the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR), which entered into force on 1 August, was to improve the functioning of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), including by accelerating the examination of cases. However, some of the changes made by it may have the opposite effect. The protocol does not solve the problem of overloading the ECtHR with incoming complaints. The reform should be thus continued by, for example, more effective resolution by states of systemic problems identified by the ECtHR.
- Topic:
- Reform, Courts, Jurisdiction, and European Court of Human Rights (ECHR)
- Political Geography:
- Europe
82. EU Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: Needs and Challenges
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł and Elzbieta Kaca
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Taliban offensive in Afghanistan has deepened the humanitarian crisis in the country. Afghans are struggling now with forced displacement as well as a food and health crisis. The EU will increase its humanitarian aid, but its effectiveness will be limited by dangerous working conditions for NGOs. This requires an agreement with the Taliban to respect humanitarian law.
- Topic:
- Health, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Taliban, NGOs, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, and South Asia
83. The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia
- Author:
- Arkadiusz Legieć
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Destabilization, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
84. The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida-affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Violent Extremism, Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Military
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, Mali, and Sahel
85. Arab Gulf States and the Situation in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Arab state authorities are refraining from making unequivocal declarations about the future of relations with Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. The priority of the Arab leadership in the Persian Gulf will be to prevent the destabilisation of Afghanistan and to influence the Afghan government policy towards terrorist organisations. Given the convergence of EU and Arab state goals related to countering the threat of terrorism in the country, the Union could include them in the announced regional platform for cooperation on Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Terrorism, Taliban, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
86. Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Latin America, and United States of America
87. A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries
88. The EU's Plans to Reduce Methane Emissions in the Energy Sector
- Author:
- Zuzanna Nowack
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Later this year, the European Commission (EC) will present draft legislation aimed at increasing the standards of monitoring ,reporting, and leak detection of methane emissions. Although there is a consensus in the EU regarding the need to reduce emissions of this second-most-harmful greenhouse gas after CO2, the implementation of the EC’s methane strategy and its expected costs are of concern to energy companies, including Polish ones. The EC will have to consider implementing a system of compensation and incentives to mitigate the effects of the proposed reforms.
- Topic:
- European Union, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
89. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations
- Author:
- Arkadiusz Legieć and Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, and Mediterranean
90. Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO
- Author:
- Wojciech Lorenz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighbourhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Taliban, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, and South Asia
91. Ambitious Plans and Economic Pragmatism - China in the Face of Climate Change
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s policy on climate change mainly serves to improve its international image, increase the competitiveness of its economy, and strengthen the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s (CPC) power. China’s activities include the development of green technologies and the announcement of a plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2030. However, the plans are unevenly implemented, sometimes even contrary to expectations, as evidenced by the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The problem of satisfying the country’s energy needs while protecting the environment means that the EU and the U.S. should treat China’s pro-climate declarations with caution.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Green Technology, and Pragmatism
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
92. The Fall of Afghanistan: The Biden Administration's First Crisis
- Author:
- Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan sparked the first major crisis of confidence in President Joe Biden and his administration, both in the U.S. and internationally. It has affected the administration’s relations with Democrats in Congress, whose confidence in the president has weakened. This narrows the president’s freedom to conduct foreign policy. At the same time, the way the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan will be used by its rivals to undermine American guarantees to Allies and the U.S. standing in the international arena.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
93. Progress of the Debate on Sustainable Farming in the EU
- Author:
- Melchior Szczepanik
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In October, the European Parliament approved the goals set by the European Commission (EC) in the Farm to Fork Strategy. This boosted the effort to reduce the negative effects of agriculture on the climate and environment. The details of the strategy must, however, still be negotiated, with the majority of Member States less enthusiastic about the planned reforms than MEPs. Certain sectors of the agri-food industry are striving to slow the transformation. In October, the European Parliament approved the goals set by the European Commission (EC) in the Farm to Fork Strategy. This boosted the effort to reduce the negative effects of agriculture on the climate and environment. The details of the strategy must, however, still be negotiated, with the majority of Member States less enthusiastic about the planned reforms than MEPs. Certain sectors of the agri-food industry are striving to slow the transformation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Sustainability, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Europe
94. North Korea's Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
95. Ukraine's Foreign Policy Strategy
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved in August this year the first Foreign Policy Strategy in the country’s history. According to the document, Ukraine’s main goal is membership in the EU and NATO and an end to the conflict with Russia. Like in the National Security Strategy, Ukraine included Poland in the second group of strategic partners. Cooperation with Poland is to be deepened and developed, not only bilaterally but also as part of multilateral formats in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, European Union, and Volodymyr Zelensky
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
96. Belarus in Turkey's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Poland, and Belarus
97. Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis
- Author:
- Agnieszka Legucka and Filip Bryjka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia and Belarus are consistent in their narrative regarding the recent border crisis. They accuse EU and NATO members, mainly Poland and Lithuania, of failing to respect international law and lacking humanity. This is aimed at discrediting Euro-Atlantic structures and weakening Polish and Lithuanian influence on NATO and EU eastern policy. The Belarusian-Russian propaganda particularly invokes charges of hypocrisy and “double standards” on the part of the EU, which challenges the management and resolution of the border crisis.
- Topic:
- NATO, Migration, Borders, Propaganda, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Belarus
98. The Course of the Energy Transition in Latin America
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek and Zuzanna Nowak
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The energy transition in Latin American countries is increasingly important for their economic development and the fight against climate change. These states want to use their potential of renewable energy sources (RES) and raw materials such as lithium deposits to attract investments and increase their participation in global supply chains building the low-carbon economy. The EU and its Member States—Germany in particular—have been more and more involved in cooperation with the region in these areas. Poland can also benefit, for example, through the exchange of experience and the engagement of Polish companies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Renewable Energy, Economic Development, Supply Chains, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, and Latin America
99. Japan's Foreign Policy Under Kishida
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The government of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, formed on 10 November, will continue the foreign policy of his predecessors Abe Shinzō and Suga Yoshihide. In response to China’s regional policy, Japan intends to develop its military potential and deepen cooperation with the U.S. and other partners, including European, in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, Kishida will strive for stable relations with China and trade liberalisation in the region out of Japan’s own economic interest. The new government’s focus on the country’s internal socioeconomic problems will be conducive to maintaining the current course in foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Economy, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
100. Protection of Digital Platform Workers in the EU
- Author:
- Marta Makowska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The European Commission (EC) has proposed a directive that provides protection of people performing work for digital platforms, especially in professions that do not require specialist qualifications. If the proposal is accepted in the shape presented by the EC, it will be a breakthrough solution on a global scale that adjusts labour law to the challenges of the digital economy. It will also strengthen the EU’s position in relations with platforms.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, European Union, European Commission, and Digital Platform Workers
- Political Geography:
- Europe