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2. The Impact of Finland's and Sweden's Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance
- Author:
- Wojciech Lorenz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Finland, North America, and Sweden
3. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine
4. The Kurdish Question Dominates Turkish Policy in the Wake of the Istanbul Bombing
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 13 November, a bomb exploded in Istanbul. In retaliation, Türkiye carried out air strikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The public’s sense of a renewed internal threat resulted in a drop in support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Possible Turkish ground operations in northern Syria may complicate the continuing fight against ISIS.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Domestic Politics, Kurds, and Bombing
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
5. Türkiye Struggling with Economic Problems and Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The ongoing crisis in the Turkish economy poses a risk of destabilisation in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The intensification of the pauperisation of the society and brain drain may have an impact on the results of next year’s elections. The long-lasting economic difficulties are also prompting Türkiye to normalise relations with Arab states and Israel.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
6. Turkish Opposition Focuses on Foreign Policy Corrections
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
7. Turkey: The European Union’s Adversarial Partner
- Author:
- Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU intends to implement a new model of relations with Turkey based on phased, proportional, and reversible engagement. The Union’s plans are a consequence of a dilemma: although Turkey often acts like an adversary, EU members want to maintain close relations with it due to the convergence of interests in areas such as migration and the economy. The Union’s new approach creates the opportunity to strengthen its influence on Turkey. Yet, different expectations about the future shape of relations will keep EU-Turkey relations tense.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Migration, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
8. Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey
- Author:
- Maria Piechowska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey—after the EU and the U.S.—one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East
9. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations
- Author:
- Arkadiusz Legieć and Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, and Mediterranean
10. Belarus in Turkey's Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Poland, and Belarus