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2. Driving sustainable development through better infrastructure: Key elements of a transformation program
- Author:
- Lord Nicholas Stern, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Amar Bhattacharya
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The agendas of accelerating sustainable development and eradicating poverty and that of climate change are deeply intertwined. Growth strategies that fail to tackle poverty and/or climate change will prove to be unsustainable, and vice versa. A common denominator to the success of both agendas is infrastructure development. Infrastructure is an essential component of growth, development, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, Poverty, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Trading Up: The Case for an International Carbon Market Reserve to Reduce Volatility at the Limits in 2020 and Beyond
- Author:
- Nigel Purvis, Abigail Jones, and Cecilia Springer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Climate policymakers face major challenges when designing future global carbon markets—those involving carbon transactions between “buyers” (predominantly developed countries to date) and “sellers” (mainly developing countries, particularly least developed nations). On one hand, domestic carbon markets are currently spreading and linking rapidly around the world. By 2015, based on already announced policies, carbon markets will cover almost 3 billion people and the lion's share of the world's economy. Because carbon markets, and carbon pricing instruments in general, present the most flexible mechanism to create low-carbon economies, carbon markets are likely to play a major role in future efforts to confront climate change—perhaps on the order of shouldering 50 percent of the solution.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, Oil, and Natural Resources
4. Decarbonization Strategies: How Much, How, Where and Who Pays for Δ ≤ 2 ̊ C?
- Author:
- Urjit R. Patel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- At a panel discussion at the London School of Economics (LSE) in early October, I said in my concluding remarks that while I was not optimistic about the likelihood of a robust global climate deal at Copenhagen, “there seemed to be a strong consensus in world capitals for a weak agreement.” Well, I was more or less right. We ended up with something rather ineffectual: a less than unanimous declaratory announcement (of feeble aims), although they call it an accord; and, in any case, it is neither a treaty nor even a binding commitment underpinned in law. In fact, domestic politics and the recession have probably put paid to hopes for a precise emissions quota-focused treaty in the near term. At any rate, a legally binding multilateral document is hardly sufficient: emission outcomes even under the formally binding Kyoto Protocol with a built-in enforcement mechanism are widely perceived to have been inadequate.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- London
5. Expecting the Unexpected: Macroeconomic Volatility and Climate Policy
- Author:
- Warwick J. McKibbin, Adele Morris, and Peter J. Wilcoxen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change, and non-climate policies like taxes. The results are only reliable to the extent that the future turns out to be reasonably close to the assumptions that went into the model.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, and Energy Policy
6. Technological Scarcity, Compliance Flexibility and the Optimal Time Path of Emissions Abatement
- Author:
- Bryan K. Mignone
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The overall economic efficiency of a quantity-based approach to greenhouse gas mitigation depends strongly on the extent to which such a program provides opportunities for compliance flexibility, particularly with regard to the timing of emissions abatement. Here I consider a program in which annual targets are determined by choosing the optimal time path of reductions consistent with an exogenously prescribed cumulative reduction target and fixed technology set. I then show that if the availability of low-carbon technology is initially more constrained than anticipated, the optimal reduction path shifts abatement toward later compliance periods. For this reason, a rigid policy in which fixed annual targets are strictly enforced in every year yields a cumulative environmental outcome identical to the optimal policy but an economic outcome worse than the optimal policy. On the other hand, a policy that aligns actual prices (or equivalently, costs) with expected prices by simply imposing an explicit price ceiling (often referred to as a "safety valve") yields the opposite result. Comparison among these multiple scenarios implies that there are significant gains to realizing the optimal path but that further refinement of the actual regulatory instrument will be necessary to achieve that goal in a real cap-and-trade system.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, and Environment
7. Prices in Emissions Permit Markets: The Role of Investor Foresight and Capital Durability
- Author:
- Bryan K. Mignone
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Of the many regulatory responses to climate change, cap-and-trade is the only one currently endorsed by large segments of the scientific, economic and political establishments. Under this type of system, regulators set the overall path of carbon dioxide (CO2) reductions, allocate or auction the appropriate number of emissions allowances to regulated entities and – through trading – allow the market to converge upon the least expensive set of abatement opportunities. As a result, the trading price of allowances is not set by the regulator as it would be under a tax system, but instead evolves over time to reflect the underlying supply and demand for allowances. In this paper, I develop a simple theory that relates the initial clearing price of CO2 allowances to the marginal cost premium of carbon-free technology, the maximum rate of energy capital replacement and the market interest rate. This theory suggests that the initial clearing price may be lower than the canonical range of CO2 prices found in static technology assessments. Consequently, these results have broad implications for the design of a comprehensive regulatory solution to the climate problem, providing, for example, some intuition about the proper value of a possible CO2 price trigger in a future cap-and-trade system.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Environment, and Markets
8. The Geopolitics of Energy: From Security to Survival
- Author:
- Carlos Pascual
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Since the industrial revolution the geopolitics of energy – who supplies it, and securing reliable access to those supplies – have been a driving factor in global prosperity and security. Over the coming decades, energy politics will determine the survival of the planet.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
9. Preventing the Tragedy of the CO2 Commons: Exploring China's Growth and the International Climate Framework
- Author:
- Peter J. Wilcoxen, Warwick J. McKibbin, and Wing Thye Woo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world economy might increase concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, India, and Asia
10. Making Sense of Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Displacement: A Work in Progress
- Author:
- Elizabeth Ferris
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- There has been a lot of talk lately about climate change and displacement. Predictions have been made that millions of people – perhaps a billion people – will be displaced because of climate change in the coming years The terms being used for those displaced by environmental factors vary. Some scholars and policy-makers refer to 'environmental refugees' which is in turn criticized by others (particularly by those coming from a refugee background.) Anke Strauss of the International Organization for Migration predicts that by 2010 – 3 years from now – we'll see an additional 50 million 'environmental migrants' which she defines as “persons or groups of persons who, because of sudden or progressive changes in the environment affecting adversely their livelihoods, have to move from their habitual homes to temporary or durable new homes, either within their country or abroad.” The 2006 Stern Review by the UK government refers to permanently displaced “climate refugees” while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change refers to “climate change refugees” or just “refugees.” The issue of climate change and displacement has become a popular issue in the public debates with major conferences organized on the issue, including this year's International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent in November 2007. More will certainly be written about these connections in the coming years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom