Number of results to display per page
Search Results
52. Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments of North Korea's Transition
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard, Marcus Noland, and Yoonok Chang
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Results from a survey of more than 1,300 North Korean refugees in China provide insight into changing economic conditions in North Korea. There is modest evidence of slightly more positive assessments among those who exited the country following the initiation of reforms in 2002. Education breeds skepticism; higher levels of education were associated with more negative perceptions of economic conditions and reform efforts. Other demographic markers such as gender or provincial origin are not robustly correlated with attitudes. Instead, personal experiences appear to be central: A significant number of the respondents were unaware of the humanitarian aid program and the ones who knew of it almost universally did not believe that they were beneficiaries. This group's evaluation of the regime, its intentions, and accomplishments is overwhelmingly negative—even more so than those of respondents who report having had experienced incarceration in political detention facilities—and attests to the powerful role that the famine experience continues to play in the political economy of the country.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, North Korea, and Korea
53. Congress, Treasury, and the Accountability of Exchange Rate Policy: How the 1988 Trade Act Should Be Reformed
- Author:
- Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The controversy within the United States over Chinese exchange rate policy has generated a series of legislative proposals to restrict the discretion of the Treasury Department in determining currency manipulation and to reform the department's accountability to Congress. This paper reviews Treasury's reports to Congress on exchange rate policy—introduced by the 1988 Trade Act—and Congress's treatment of them. It finds that the accountability process has often not worked well in practice: The reports provide only a partial basis for effective congressional oversight. For its part, Congress held hearings on less than half of the reports and overlooked some important substantive issues. Several recommendations can improve guidance to the Treasury, standards for assessment, and congressional oversight. These include (1) refining the criteria used to determine currency manipulation and writing them into law, (2) explicitly harnessing US decisions on manipulation to the International Monetary Fund's rules on exchange rates, (3) clarifying the general objectives of US exchange rate policy, (4) reaffirming the mandate to seek international macroeconomic and currency cooperation, (5) requiring Treasury to lead an executivewide policy review, and (6) institutionalizing multicommittee oversight of exchange rate policy by Congress. Legislators should strengthen reporting and oversight of broader exchange rate policy in addition to strengthening the provisions targeting manipulation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
54. A (Lack of) Progress Report on China's Exchange Rate Policies
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This working paper assesses the progress made in improving China's exchange rate policies over the past five years (that is, since 2002). I first discuss four indicators of progress on China's external imbalance and its exchange rate policies—namely, the change in (and level of) China's global current account position, movements in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB), the role of market forces in the determination of the RMB, and China's compliance with its obligations on exchange rate policy as a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I then discuss why the lack of progress in improving China's exchange rate policies matters for the economies of the China and the United States and for the international monetary and trading system. I also argue that several popular arguments and excuses for why more cannot be accomplished on removing the large undervaluation of the RMB are unpersuasive. Finally, I consider what can and should be done by China, the United States, and the IMF to accelerate progress over the next year or two.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Foreign Exchange
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
55. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
56. Prospects for Regional Free Trade in Asia
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Frustrated with lackluster momentum in the WTO Doha Round and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and mindful of free trade agreement (FTA) networks centered on the United States and Europe, Asian countries have joined the FTA game. By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and had negotiated but not implemented another seven. Asian nations are also actively negotiating some 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners, including Australia, Canada, Chile, the European Union, India, and Qatar. China has been particularly active since 2000. It has completed three bilateral FTAs—Thailand in 2003 and Hong Kong and Macao in 2004—and is initiating another 17 bilateral and regional FTAs. However, a regional Asian economic bloc led by China seems distant, even though China accounts for about 30 percent of regional GDP. As in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, many Asian countries are pursuing FTAs with countries outside the region. On present evidence, the FTA process embraced with some enthusiasm in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere more closely resembles fingers reaching idiosycratically around the globe rather than politico-economic blocs centered respectively on Beijing, Brussels, and Washington.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, Washington, Canada, India, Beijing, Asia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Hong Kong, Brussels, and Macao
57. What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein and Anna Wong
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
58. The Chinese Economy: Prospects and Key Policy Issues
- Author:
- Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
59. Global Economic Prospects: Slower But Still Solid Growth in 2005; Worries About Growth and Inflation for 2006
- Author:
- Michael Mussa
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- After surging to the highest growth rate in a generation, world real GDP is set to slow from a rate of just over 5 percent for 2004 to about 4 percent for 2005 and a tad slower for 2006. The economic slowdowns in several important economies in the second half of last year, including much of continental Europe and Japan, already make it clear that year-over-year growth will slow for 2005. But the continued strong growth of domestic demand in other countries, most notably the United States and China, virtually assures that global growth this year will not fall below potential.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and East Asia
60. China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- According to a popular argument put forward by three Deutsche Bank economists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber, here after DFG), one needn't worry about the sustainability of either the large US current account deficit or the undervalued exchange rates of a group of Asian economies (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; Folkerts-Landau 2004). In their view, the United States and the Asian economies have entered into an implicit contract—the so-called revived Bretton Woods system (hereafter BW2)—that can comfortably carry on for another decade or two, with significant net benefits to both parties.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia