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2. The equity market will climb a wall of worry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The equity market has had a tough few months due to a combination of concerns, including fears that a US-led attack on Syria might lead to a wider Middle East conflict and threaten oil supplies. Of greater concern for equities are worries that a turn in the US monetary policy cycle could eventually kill off the US recovery. However with valuation not looking like a barrier to further gains, this four-and-a-half year equity bull market will in all likelihood climb the wall of worry and set another new high before the year is out.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
3. Attack on Syria: the danger is in escalation
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- It is now looking all but certain that the United States will launch some form of attack on Syria. What is unclear is the severity and duration of the attack. Leaving aside the political ramifications, the immediate economic effects are likely to be limited (and are mostly already factored in). Opposing impacts on inflation and activity means that changes to central bank policy could be postponed. A prolonged campaign could have wider ramifications, not least if there is a risk of a geographical widening of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
4. Fighting the Fed
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Since the US Federal Reserve signalled that a turn in the interest rate cycle may be on the horizon, UK and to a lesser extent Eurozone interest rates have tracked US rates higher. But the UK and Eurozone economies are less well placed than the US to cope with higher interest rates. Simulations carried out on our Global Economic Model show that higher rates would be particularly harmful to the UK economy's embryonic recovery. In an attempt to stem the rise in interest rates, the Bank of England and the ECB have introduce forward guidance but with little, if any, success. Markets do not seem convinced by the Bank of England's commitment to forward guidance and are testing its resolve. It seems likely that over time both central banks may have to strengthen their forward guidance, in the case of the Bank of England by augmenting it with further quantitative easing.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, and Europe
5. If the Fed threshold changes
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- At the end of last week, there were rumours that the Fed may change its unemployment threshold from 6.5% to 6%, either at its 30-31 July meeting or, perhaps more likely, at its 17-18 September meeting. Such a move would confirm that the Fed funds rate is likely to remain in its current 0-0.25% range until 2015, which is in line with our baseline scenario. But while the change would be an acknowledgement that the US labour market has performed more strongly than expected, the change – if implemented – could still be a mistake as it may erode the value of forward guidance by moving the goalposts.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
6. US recovery on track
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent US data have been uneven. An improving manufacturing ISM survey was offset by non-manufacturing data being worse than expected. Last week a strong consumer credit number was balanced by weaker small business confidence. The US economy almost certainly went through a soft patch in Q2. However, on balance the recovery–unexciting as it has been–remains on track, with some possible further mileage to be had from equities. This is consistent with the recent dovish statement by Fed Chairman Bernanke, suggesting that the tapering of quantitative easing is still some way off.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
7. Our bond market, your problem?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Comments from the US Federal Reserve aimed at signalling that monetary policy cannot stay at historically low levels indefinitely have caused bond yields and credit spreads to rise both in the US and abroad. Higher borrowing rates are particularly inappropriate for the Eurozone which, unlike the US, is still struggling to emerge from recession. This tightening of financial conditions will place pressure on the ECB to act. Although surveys show that investors' bearishness on US government bonds is at an extreme level, suggesting that in the coming weeks bond yields are more likely to fall than rise, the longer-term trend in bond yields is now upwards. But we do not expect the rise in yields over the next two or three years to kill off the US recovery. Consequently, we believe that the US equity market is still on an upward uptrend, albeit one that will experience regular spikes in volatility as the Fed gradually moves away from its ultra-loose policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
8. Faster taper – limited impact
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Markets took fright after Ben Bernanke's press conference on 19 June at the prospect of an early end to QE. Bond purchases might be tapered off sooner, as the Fed now expects unemployment to fall to its target of 6.5% next year rather than in 2015. It is not yet clear whether any of the bonds bought as part of QE will eventually be sold off. While it is obvious that an end to the Fed's purchases will have an impact on output growth and asset prices, our Global Economic Model shows that the effects will be limited.
- Topic:
- Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
9. UK housing market: bellows to a bubble?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The housing market is recovering, according to recent price and activity data. Post-crisis price corrections were smaller in the UK than in the US and much of Europe, and demand is now being bolstered by the government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. This has given rise to some worries that the UK is in danger of inflating another house price bubble. While housing supply is very tight, we are not convinced that these schemes will have enough impact on demand to cause prices to take off.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, and Europe
10. The case for rising US corporate capex
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Shifts in financial balances between sectors of the economy are worth watching because they can signal broader cyclical changes. The US household financial balance turned negative in Q1. But that was mainly due to distortions in income related to tax increases in 2013. Taking the average of Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, households still have a positive balance. More importantly, the conditions are in place for a rise in capital expenditure (capex) by the corporate sector. This would allow both household and public sector savings to increase. It would also mean an upside risk to our main scenario for the US economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States