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1. The internet of things: China’s rise and Australia’s choices

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Internet of Things (IoT) is connecting a growing range of economic and social activity across national borders, while simultaneously expanding the security challenges implied by these connections, including to Chinese state power. Despite US-led efforts to exclude Chinese actors from digital networks worldwide, the economies of East and Southeast Asia are becoming more densely integrated with China through evolving IoT ecosystems and supply chains. These trends threaten to disadvantage Australia and require policies to build up the country’s own technological capacities while devising innovative ways to manage, rather than avoid, the risks entailed in growing digital connections with China.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Science and Technology, Internet of Things, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, and United States of America

2. Emerging from COVID: Policy Responses to the Pandemic

Author:
Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Herve Lemahieu, Alyssa Leng, Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, and Sam Scott
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The fight against COVID-19 has been the greatest challenge the world has faced since the middle of last century. As countries have fought to control the disease, they have closed borders, quarantined their citizens, and shut down economies almost entirely. The ramifications will reverberate for years, if not decades, to come. In April 2020, the Lowy Institute published a digital feature in which twelve Institute experts examined the ways in which the COVID crisis would affect Australia, the region and the world. In this new feature, Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation’s — and the world’s — successful emergence from the pandemic. Countries have turned inwards in an attempt to fend off the threat of an infection that is oblivious to borders. Some have seen globalisation as the cause of the crisis, and have focused on solving problems without recourse to the international institutions of global security and prosperity, including the United Nations, the World Health Organization, and the G20. Yet global problems require international solutions. As the world emerges from the crisis, cooperation between nations will be more important than ever. Nation states cannot revive their economies purely through national solutions. They cannot address global threats, including the possibility of further pandemics, alone. Australia’s achievements in managing the COVID crisis have been exemplary. It has handled the health and economic emergency with great competence. But this is just the beginning of our crisis recovery. The challenges in our region, and the global problems that existed before COVID, have only been exacerbated by the pandemic. Australia has already done much to address the domestic economic and health issues from the COVID crisis. But to shape a prosperous and secure future, it will also need to work in cooperation with other nations, large and small, allies and partners, on a much broader array of international issues ranging from the economic disruption across the region, pressure from China on trade, and development challenges in the Pacific, to increasingly competitive relations between the United States and China, the weakening of the World Health Organization, and the declining utility of the G20.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Health, World Health Organization, G20, Geopolitics, COVID-19, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Australia, and United States of America

3. East Asia's Decoupling

Author:
Roland Rajah
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
East Asia is no longer reliant on US or Western markets to fuel its growth, giving it more room to manage amid global trade tensions. Heightened global trade tensions and the US desire to ‘decouple’ from the Chinese economy for national security reasons pose significant risks to East Asia’s export-driven growth model. However, the latest data suggests East Asia is no longer so dependent on exporting to the West, with China in particular eclipsing the United States as the leading source of ‘final demand’ for the rest of the region’s exports. This gives East Asia much greater room to manoeuvre, as regional integration is now a more viable platform for growth while US decoupling efforts will likely struggle to find traction in the region.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4. Northeast Asia's Turbulent Triangle: Korea-China-Japan Relations

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Northeast Asia is one of the most important crucibles of global economic and strategic change, and it is far from a stable one. The modern histories of China, Japan and South Korea were forged by Japan's colonisation of China and Korea and the Korean War that divided the peninsula and saw China on the side of North Korea and Japan on the side of South Korea. This recent history has left the bilateral relations on each side of this turbulent triangle strained by a lack of trust, popular antipathy and unresolved territorial disputes. As noted in the project's Beijing workshop, the stalled trilateral free trade agreement negotiations between the three Northeast Asian neighbours, launched with great hope in 1997, have been the victim of this turbulence and strain.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and North America

5. Trade and the G20

Author:
John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

6. Australia - China ties: in search of political trust

Author:
Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
How Canberra should manage its relations with Beijing, given the importance of China economically, politically and militarily, is a question which divides Australians. There is general agreement that the rise of China will have a profound effect on the well - being and security of Australia. The consensus ends there.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia

7. China in the Pacific: the new banker in town

Author:
Fergus Hanson and Mary Fifita
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? China is now one of the Pacific\'s major donors. An analysis of its aid program in the region from 2005 to 2009 suggests it is reducing the grant component of its aid and increasing the soft loan proportion. China has pledged over $US 600 million to the Pacific since 2005 and debt burdening will become increasingly pressing as Chinese loans accumulate and the five-year grace periods expire. There appears to have been limited progress improving transparency.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

8. External imbalances and the G20

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
International external imbalances have been blamed for playing a central role in the Global Financial Crisis. China's large external surplus usually figures prominently in these explanations. While a more balanced account of the causes of the crisis would give only a modest role to external imbalances there seems little doubt that some adjustment of these imbalances over the next few years is both inevitable and desirable, not because external imbalances in themselves are inherently undesirable, but because some of the specific components of today's current balances are unsustainable. Markets could bring about these necessary adjustments over time. History, however, tells us that market-driven adjustments are often accompanied by exchange-rate overshooting and trade- threatening protectionist responses.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

9. Building on Kyoto: towards a realistic global climate agreement

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As a mechanism for controlling climate change, the Kyoto Protocol has not been a success. Over the decade from its signing in 1997 to the beginning of its first commitment period in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial countries subject to targets under the protocol did not fall as the protocol intended. Instead, emissions in many countries rose rapidly. It is now abundantly clear that as a group, the countries bound by the protocol have little chance of achieving their Kyoto targets by the end of the first commitment period in 2012. Moreover, emissions have increased substantially as well in countries such as China, which were not bound by the protocol but which will eventually have to be part of any serious climate change regime.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China

10. China can grow and still help prevent the tragedy of the carbon dioxide commons

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Wing Thye Woo
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world might increase concentration of atmospheric to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of CO2 emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia