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1. Seeing Tunisia’s Civil Society During Un-civil Times

Author:
Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia’s dramatic democratic reversals since July 2021 warrant an in-depth reflection on how and where its once-promising democratisation momentum went wrong. Much attention is given to the top-down demolition of democratic institutions by the country’s (democratically) elected President Kais Saied. However, just as the popular revolution that ousted the dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and the subsequent democratic transition was to a great extent a bottom-up process, so civil society too is an important piece of the de-democratisation puzzle. In a bid to compare and contrast trajectories of degeneration and regeneration, the paper explores the contributions and constraints of Tunisian civil society vis-à-vis Tunisia’s difficult experiment with democratisation.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and NGOs
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

2. Towards European Electoral and Party Systems

Author:
Enrico Calossi
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Although much progress has been achieved in the last sixty years, the European Union still lacks a unique electoral system and a proper party system. Recently some changes have been proposed or introduced in order to homogenise the national electoral systems of the EP and to strengthen political parties at the EU level. Andrew Duff’s proposal for a transnational party list; the establishment of European political foundations in 2007; the updating of the Statute of the European political parties in 2014; the designation of the Spitzekandidaten by Europarties were all useful attempts. More could be done. National democracies can become sources of inspiration for new proposals. Some suggestions may require new formal regulations. Others are more informal or political, and would give political actors new opportunities on voluntary bases.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-72-9
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

3. Authoritarian Stability through Perpetual Democratisation

Author:
Francesco Cavatorta
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The survival of the Moroccan monarchy during the Arab revolts did not come as a surprise. Once the King reclaimed political leadership through the launch of a constitutional reform, the protest movement faded and whatever challenge to the pre-eminence of the monarchy in the political system might have existed ended quickly. A number of different and interlinked explanations have been advanced for the survival of authoritarianism in Morocco, but they generally rehash conventional wisdoms about Moroccan politics that may not be as valid as they were in the past. This paper looks beyond such traditional explanations, focusing on less obvious factors that contributed to the survival of the monarchy. A more sophisticated explanation for the survival of the regime can serve as a more insightful guide to what Morocco might look like in the future and what are the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, Authoritarianism, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-67-5
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

4. Social, Economic and Political Dynamics in Tunisia and the Related Short- to Medium-Term Scenarios

Author:
Maryam Ben Salem
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia is the only Arab Spring country which has succeeded so far in its democratic transition. Now that all the democratic institutions have been put in place, and after the legislative and presidential elections of 2014, the chances of democratic consolidation remain to be seen. Yet the regime faces serious challenges that cast doubt on its survival capacity. The political dynamics at play after the 2014 elections, which allowed Nidaa Tounes to come to power, cannot be understood without taking into account the conditions surrounding the political transition itself. The National Dialogue, hosted by the Quartet who were recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, is key to understanding the ongoing process of democracy consolidation. Taking into account both contingent and structural factors, this paper analyses how the current context is likely to shape the choices of the presidency of the Republic and of the Essid government, as well as the implications in terms of their legitimacy.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-65-1
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

5. Burma Before the Elections

Author:
Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Burma’s upcoming elections will be a test of how much the country’s political scene has changed since the generals’ tentative liberalisation programme began five years ago. The National League for Democracy, led by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, is likely to win big. Still, it may not get the two-thirds of the parliamentary seats open for competition that it needs to form a government. If it does not, it ought to blame itself, for the NLD has been unwilling to enter into coalitions either with much-respected civic organisations or with the increasingly vocal and well-organised ethnic parties. At the same time, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has led a smart campaign just short of breaking the electoral laws. Both the USDP and ethnic parties might do better than expected and cost the NLD – dominated and controlled by Suu Kyi – a crucial opportunity to advance democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, Authoritarianism, and Reform
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-63-7
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

6. India 2014: Return of the One-Party Dominant System

Author:
Neera Chandhoke
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The current elections, which gave to the BJP a majority in Parliament, have brought back the one-party dominant system that was once used to describe the hegemony of the Congress party, and the lack of an opposition. The "new" one-party dominant system is however dramatically different from the original one. The BJP unlike the Congress is a cadre based party and subscribes to a distinct ideology. It is also headed by the powerful figure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose image looms larger than the party and his colleagues. India will witness a qualitatively different style of governance in the next five years.
Topic:
Democratization, Power Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
India and Southeast Asia

7. Moroccan Exceptionalism Examined: Constitutional Insights pre- and post-2011

Author:
Mohammed Hashas
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Compared to Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, Morocco's political development looks like an oasis of tranquillity. "Moroccan exceptionalism" is often drawn on as a positive status, the result of at least one decade of reforms implemented by the monarchy, long before the Arab Spring events. An alternative view is offered by some civil society movements inside the country and by the 20 February Movement, born amidst the waves of the Arab Spring, which are critical of this exceptionalism and call for more reforms. By making reference to the constitutional reforms undertaken by the country since 1908 and by assessing the most recent reform efforts, this paper argues that "Moroccan exceptionalism" is yet to go through the test of the implementation of what is often referred to as a "promising constitution" that should in its intentions pave the way for a genuine constitutional monarchy in Morocco. "Moroccan exceptionalism," as the paper concludes, is not the description of a "final" political situation; rather, it is merely "a phase" in the political life of a country undergoing transition. It is then the outcome of this "phase" that will determine whether "exceptionalism" takes on a positive or a negative meaning and whether the two contrasting narratives about "exceptionalism" can ultimately be reconciled.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

8. Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Ebru Oğurlu
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Over the last few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been increasingly fraught with growing competition between regional players, most notably Turkey, Cyprus, and Israel, signalling an apparent return of power politics in regional relations. Of all actors involved, Turkey stands out for being both an ever more influential power and a source of serious concern to other countries in the region due to its greater assertiveness and perceived hegemonic ambitions. Against the backdrop of recent regional developments and their international implications, including the dispute over drilling rights off Cyprus' coasts, Turkey's image as a constructive and dialogue-oriented country, a critical achievement pursued by a generation of Turkish politicians, diplomats and officials, risks being replaced by one of an antagonistic/assertive power. Facing the first serious challenge to its claim to embody a benign model as a secular Muslim democracy and a responsible international actor, Turkey should not indulge in emotional reactions. It should opt instead for a more moderate and balanced approach based on the assumption that only cooperation and constructive dialogue, even with rival countries, can help it realize its ambition of being the regional pivot.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, Colombia, and Cyprus

9. The EU's Conditionality Policy: A New Strategy to Achieve Compliance

Author:
Fabienne Zwagemakers
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Through the inclusion of human rights and democracy clauses in the trade and association agreements of its common external trade policy, the European Union seeks to promote and transmit the values of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law globally. However, trade partners from the developing world often feel that these clauses offend their national sovereignty, and sometimes resort to alternative agreements offered by countries notorious for cutting corners. This working paper offers an assessment of the motives for non-compliance and sketches out how the EU could engender compliance. The paper concludes that there is a pivotal role to be played by education, civil society, business, and political parties in the nexus between economic growth, democracy, and the respect for human rights. The EU must target these factors directly, as they largely determine the domestic enforcement of HR clauses. In addition, the EU should develop a human rights strategy coordinated with global, regional, and local actors.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Sri Lanka

10. "Mixed Signals" Still? The EU's Democracy and Human Rights Policy Since the Outbreak of the Arab Spring

Author:
Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
For the last two decades, the EU has sent mixed signals concerning democracy and human rights to its Mediterranean neighbourhood. Has this changed since the outbreak of the Arab Spring? After observing the EU's response to the revolutions in two key countries, Tunisia and Egypt, this paper finds that signalling to Tunisia has become more coherent, while it remains ambiguous towards Egypt - a trend reinforced by US foreign policy in the region. In order to send a coherent message, the EU has to outline more concretely, what are the benchmarks and rewards for progress. For signalling to be effective, bilateral and multilateral dialogues are key. While bilateral dialogue platforms do exist, they should meet more frequently and at the highest levels. A multilateral dimension is conspicuously missing in the array of instruments set up by the EU in response to the Arab Spring, but would be crucial not only in order to understand the different democracy languages spoken, but notably also to anchor reform and set regional standards for it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Human Rights, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

11. The Quest for Political Reform in Azerbaijan: What Role for the Transatlantic Community?

Author:
Anar Valiyev
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As Azerbaijan celebrates its 20th anniversary of independence, democratic development remains a key challenge facing the country. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan successfully coped with immediate problems such as poverty reduction and economic and political stability, the need to reform the public administration and decentralize governance has become particularly urgent. The main problems, however, remain the same: low public trust in institutions, the absence of a democratic political culture and the lack of bridging social capital. In this regard, the assistance of the Transatlantic Community is necessary. The European Union and the United States should pursue a developmental approach to democracy promotion in Azerbaijan, which has higher chances to succeed than a more explicitly political approach, considering the weak institutional capacity in the country.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Azerbaijan

12. The 2012 Armenian Parliamentary Elections: Implications for Armenian Foreign Policy

Author:
Marilisa Lorusso
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Armenian parliamentary elections were held on 6 May 2012. Five parties and a coalition won seats in Parliament. Three of them are opposition parties, two in the previous legislature were allies of the presidency party, the Republican Party. The latter comfortably won the elections. With 45% votes through the proportional system and 29 seats through the majoritarian one, the Republican Party has the absolute majority of seats, 69 out of 131. So the two main issues in Armenian foreign policy - the protracted conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and relations with Turkey - will be addressed in continuity with the policy expressed so far by President Serzh Sargsyan, unless the regional counterparts change their strategies. With the party he chairs being confirmed as the leading political force of the country, Sargsyan will run for his second term in the upcoming presidential elections.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Caucasus

13. François Hollande's Presidency:A New Era in French Foreign Policy?

Author:
Jean-Pierre Darnis
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
François Hollande's election as president of the French republic seems to mark a political rupture, interrupting 17 years of right wing presidencies (under Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy) and a decade of conservative government. Hollande claims that he will be a “normal” president, in contrast with Sarkozy's flamboyant style. This paper assesses whether Hollande's presidency truly represents a turning point in France's trajectory by gauging its impact on French foreign policy. The argument elaborated below is that French foreign policy is and will continue to be driven by strong continuities, although differences in style are likely to impinge upon France's role in the world and in the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

14. Is There an Islamist Alternative in Egypt?

Author:
Daniela Pioppi
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
It is a common place in the literature that the Muslim Brotherhood (jama'a al-ikhwan al-muslimin) is - after its re-emergence on the political scene back in the seventies - the main (if not the only) real, organised and mass-based opposition force in Egypt. Events in Egypt in January 2011 have recast attention on this question. This paper aims to evaluate, inasmuch as it is possible, the state of health of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) today, after forty years of coexistence with the Egyptian (neo)-authoritarian regime. Has the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood represented a real alternative to the incumbent regime? Or it is more correct to speak today in terms of an almost 'functional' opposition, tamed by recurring political repression and limited freedom of action? To what extent has the Muslim Brotherhood been able to shape or at least to influence the Egyptian political and social agenda, both with respect to the regime and to other opposition forces?
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

15. The Tunisian Revolution: An Opportunity for Democratic Transition

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Rym Ayadi, Maria Cristina Paciello, and Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Owing to its macroeconomic achievements, for decades Tunisia projected an image of stability to the world and distinguished itself from other Arab countries for its progress in the areas of economic growth, health, education and women's rights. This widely held view of apparent stability was shattered on January 14, when President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country after high levels of unemployment and inequalities resulted in widespread chaos and social unrest. Events in Tunisia raise sharp questions regarding the country's current situation and its future prospects and, more generally, the often taken-forgranted sustainability of many regimes of the Middle East and the policies of the European Union towards the region.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

16. Confidence-building in Tunisia after the Popular Uprising: Strategies and Dilemmas of the Interim Government

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cassarino
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the fall of Ben Ali on 14th January 2011, Tunisia has been going through a process of transformation and reconfiguration of the manifold relationships between the state and society. So far, a series of legal amendments and policy provisions have been considered to respond to immediate political demands in the run-up to the next elections. However, the numerous policy steps that have been achieved so far should not conceal resilient challenges pertaining, among others, to the structure of the economy and to its capacity to tackle youth unemployment, poverty in depressed areas, unfair competition, and corruption. The interim government will need to address these deeper challenges lest its credibility be jeopardised and the overall reform process compromised.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

17. The 2012 Presidential Elections in Russia: What Future for the Medvedev-Putin Tandem?

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The 2012 Russian presidential election and the future of the Medvedev-Putin tandem have started to dominate political debate inside and outside the country. Several developments in Russia's domestic politics have made predictions on the future president particularly arduous. These include Russia's so-called modernization initiative; Mikhail Prokhorov's debut on the Russian political scene, and the new presidential decree on the "Security Council Questions". Yet, analysing these developments suggests that whether Putin will return to the presidency or whether he will remain the de facto leader is unlikely to have major repercussions on Russian domestic policy. For Russia, the priority today is the need to maintain internal stability and formal democracy, necessary to attract foreign technologies and thus advance the modernization initiative as well as to guarantee elite continuity through an internal balance between the siloviki faction and the liberals. Both a renewed Medvedev-Putin tandem and a return of Putin to the presidency fulfil these goals. While much debated, the personality of the future Russian president is unlikely to represent a major game changer in Russia today.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia

18. Democracy in Europe: Politicizing Champions for the European Public Sphere

Author:
Matteo Garavoglia
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The democratic deficit in the relationship between European institutions and citizens stems from the lack of a pan-European public sphere where supranational policy-making and national politics can be reconciled. One of the key reasons for the absence of a pan-European public sphere is the extremely limited politicization of European policy-making in the eyes of European citizens in a context whereby Europe is perceived as an entity of "policy without politics". The aim of this paper is to highlight how a politicization of the European policy-making process through a dialectical engagement of progressive and liberal forces with conservative and nationalistic ones can contribute to the development of a pan-European public sphere.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

19. A European Strategy for Democracy, Development and Security for the Mediterranean

Author:
Stefano Silvestri
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union urgently has to work out a new strategy towards the Mediterranean and the Middle East. It has to back the democratic transformations of Arab societies, but also assert the need for new cooperation in the field of security so that the inevitable changes do not produce new international crises and do not generate new threats. The EU can take advantage of a favourable situation which, however, may not last long. This is a crucial test for the Union's common foreign and security policy after Lisbon.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Lisbon

20. Iran's Presidential Elections: What Impact on External Relations?

Author:
Shireen T. Hunter
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In June 2009, Iran will hold its 10th presidential elections since the establishment of the Islamic regime in 1979. As a rule, in past elections the incumbent president was elected to a second term. Even Muhammad Khatami, despite his problems with the conservative elements and disagreements with the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was reelected in 2001.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Democratization, Islam, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Iran

21. Security Governance

Author:
Fred Tanner
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The common language on security governance remains a mid-to long-term objective for the Euro-Med community. But, the conceptualisation of security governance is a possible way to problematise security sector reform and democratic control of armed forces in the Euro-Med context. The EU as a civilian power had in the past little authority to deal with politico-military matters. This is now changing with the operationalisation of ESDP. From a EU perspective there are three motivations to promote security governance in the Mediterranean.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, and International Law