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1. Bracing for Cold Peace. US-Russia Relations after Ukraine

Author:
Ondrej Ditrych
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The crisis in Ukraine has turned the tables of the post-Cold War relationship between the United States and Russia. The ongoing transformation can result in a number of outcomes, which can be conceived in terms of scenarios of normalisation, escalation and 'cold peace' - the latter two scenarios being much more probable than the first. NATO ought to shore up its defences in Central and Eastern Europe while Washington and its allies engage in a comprehensive political strategy of 'new containment'. This means combining political and economic stabilisation of the transatlantic area with credible offers of benefits to partners in the East and pragmatic relations with Russia which are neither instrumentalised (as was the case with the 'reset') nor naïvely conceived as a 'partnership'.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Cold War, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, and Ukraine

2. Ukraine's Crisis and Russia's Closest Allies: A Reinforced Intra-Alliance Security Dilemma at Work

Author:
Alena Vysotskaya Guedes Vieira
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia's actions towards Ukraine in 2013-14, which inaugurated a new Cold War in its relations with the West, presented a dilemma to Russia's allies: whether to align themselves with Russia's choices or pursue a more independent course of action. The leadership of Belarus, Russia's closest ally, chose the latter option both by establishing dialogue with the interim government and President of Ukraine, Oleksandr Turchinov, considered illegitimate in Russia and, later, by being present at the inauguration of Petro Poroshenko on 7 June 2014 and downplaying Russia's position on the 'federalisation' of Ukraine as the only way out of the country's instability. The perspective of the intra-alliance security dilemma helps explain the divergence of views between Russia and Belarus, while pointing to the changing position of the parties towards the Eurasian integration project.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

3. Transforming the Italian Armed Forces, 2001-13

Author:
Francesco N. Moro and Fabrizio Coticchia
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italian armed forces have undergone important transformations since the end of the Cold War. Exogenous changes in the strategic and operational environment have driven a reshaping of armed forces in all NATO countries, but the differences between the national responses that have emerged has not always been thoroughly analysed. Deep restructuring in military doctrine, field experience linked to intense force deployment and budgetary constraints interact in shaping the direction of transformation, sometimes in ways that deviate from classic hypotheses on what drives change in the military. The picture that emerges is a complex one, where relevant innovations co-exist with the persistence of problems that call into question the sustainability of the Italian defence model.
Topic:
NATO and Cold War
Political Geography:
Italy

4. North and South Korea: A Frozen Conflict on the Verge of Unfreezing?

Author:
Stefano Felician
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Korean Peninsula, despite its size, is one of the most critical areas of the world. A land that bears a bitter legacy of the Cold War, and that is still heavily militarized, Korea shows a striking contrast from North to South. These two opposite political systems cohabit under a fragile peace that could be broken at any moment. This has led to a massive military development and the deployment of a wide array of troops on both sides. The future of North Korea is crucial for the entire region and could affect the EU's economy as well. Many issues remain to be solved in order to achieve a durable peace in the region or, at the very least, to avoid the resumption of war. The European Union could play a role in this unfolding crisis in a manner that could also help its ailing economy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Cold War, Peace Studies, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, South Korea, and North Korea

5. Whither the Arab Spring? 1989 or 1848?

Author:
Robert Springborg
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The dramatic thawing of the Cold War at the end of the 1980s accompanied by the rapid democratisation of Eastern Europe served as inspiration and model for political transitions in other settings. Now the Arab world, the securitisation of which has kept it frozen in what amounts to a regional cold war long after the global prototype ended, may be entering its springtime of political freedom. Tunisia's 'Jasmine' and Egypt's 'Midan al Tahrir' Revolutions chased established autocrats from power, thus making possible new domestic political orders and substantial reorientations of foreign policies. Imitative uprisings in Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Syria have thus far resulted in widespread violence, regime retrenchments and even foreign interventions, although prospects do remain for more positive outcomes. Intermittent demonstrations in various other Arab countries, including Morocco, Algeria, Oman, Jordan and Iraq, have typically been met with limited political reforms and promises of more to come. So the region is definitely in political ferment, but whether that presages transitions to democracy à la Eastern Europe in 1989, or revanchist reconsolidations reminiscent of those that overwhelmed the 1848 liberal nationalist movements in Western Europe, remains to be seen.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Algeria, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain, and Oman

6. Turkey's New Foreign Policy and the Future of Turkey-EU Relations

Author:
Emiliano Alessandri
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Turkey is not 'drifting' towards the east. It is in search of a new place and a new identity, given the many changes that have taken place in the domestic and international contexts, particularly since the end of the Cold War. This complex process of transformation does not in itself challenge Turkey's Western orientation, but it certainly puts it to the test. It is time for the debate on Turkey's drift to be replaced by a more serious and fruitful one on the reasons why Turkey is still important for the EU and the West and what Europe and the West mean for and can offer contemporary Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Cold War
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

7. To Be or Not To Be: South Korea's East Asia Security Strategy and the Unification Quandary

Author:
Seongho Sheen
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since its division following independence from Japanese colonialism in 1945, the reunification of the Korean peninsula has been the ultimate national mission for the Republic of South Korea (ROK). Unification became the most important redemptive mission for Koreans to recover the national pride and unity lost during Japanese colonialism. Yet, it also became a practical imperative to address the most serious national security threat posed by North Korean military aggression. Memories are still vivid of the Korean War which North Korea's Communist leader, Kim Il-sung, started in 1950 in an effort to unify Korea by force, and which killed almost four million Koreans on both sides (since the 1953 armistice, the two Koreas have remained technically at war). Additionally, unification is understood as a way to enhance Korea's geostrategic leverage over its big neighbours, China and Japan, which seem to have taken advantage of the division. In fact, the Chinese and Japanese views on Korean unification can be likened to the way former French President Mitterrand spoke of the prospects of German unification: they like Korea so much that they prefer to have two of them as their neighbours rather than just one. Koreans had every reason to believe that reunification was their national mission and in Korea's interests. Indeed, as much as the South Koreans feared military aggression from the North, they also wanted to achieve unification badly enough to risk war, causing the United States to keep a close eye on each South Korean government throughout the Cold War for any intent to launch a pre-emptive attack on North Korea.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Korea

8. Effectiveness and Ineffectiveness of the UN Security Council in the Last Twenty Years: A European Perspective

Author:
David Hannay
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War struck the UN, as it struck the governments of its member states, like a bolt from the blue. It had not been predicted, nor anticipated; and no thought had been given to its possible consequences for the UN, which had been, since its establishment forty-five years before, a victim of the frozen certainties of bi-polar international diplomacy. There had been no consideration of what the post-Cold War world would look like and of what role the UN might be expected to play in it. It truly was a watershed moment, and therefore a sensible one to take as the start of any analysis of the Security Council in the twenty year period that has since followed.
Topic:
International Relations, Cold War, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, Kuwait, and Berlin

9. European and American Roles in Nation-Building

Author:
James Dobbins
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Contrary to popular belief, the number of conflicts and the number of casualties, refugees and displaced persons resulting from them has fallen dramatically since the end of the Cold War. Previously, with neither superpower wanting a dispute to be settled to its disadvantage, conflicts dragged on indefinitely or were permanently frozen. After 1989, dynamics changed and international interventions began to pursue more far-reaching objectives: to disarm combatants, promote civil society, restore the economy, etc. Nation-building thus replaced inter-positional peacekeeping as the dominant form of international intervention with such missions becoming larger, longer and more frequent. The UN's success rate, as measured in enhanced security, economic growth, return of refugees and installation of representative governments meets or exceeds that of NATO- and EU-led missions in almost every category. It is time, therefore, for Western governments, militaries and populations to get over their disappointment at the UN's early failures and begin once again to do their fair share in these efforts.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, and Government
Political Geography:
America and Europe

10. A Global Response to Terrorism

Author:
Ian Shapiro
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Bush administration has been too quick to dismiss containment as an obsolete hangover of the Cold War. Appropriately modified to operate through international institutions and regional alliances, containment provides the most viable available basis for responding to terrorist threats emanating from rogue regimes and weak states.
Topic:
Cold War and Terrorism

11. Redefining Sovereignty . The Use of Force After the End of the Cold War. New Options, Lawful and Legitimate?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The conference was organised by the Institute for International Affairs (IAI) with the support of the Centre for High Defence Studies (CASD), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the NATO Office for Information and Press and the Thyssen Foundation. It was held in Rome, at the Centre for High Defence Studies, on 24 and 25 November 2000.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Cold War, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Germany, and Rome