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2. Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Islamabad must tread carefully with its long-time Taliban allies back in power in Kabul. Pitfalls lie ahead for Pakistan’s domestic security and its foreign relations. The Pakistani government should encourage Afghanistan’s new authorities down the path of compromise with international demands regarding rights and counter-terrorism.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia
3. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Greece
4. Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia, the two countries remain mired in mutual non-recognition, with deleterious effects on both. The parties need to move past technicalities to tackle the main issues at stake: Pristina’s independence and Belgrade’s influence over Kosovo’s Serbian minority.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Minorities, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
5. The Urgent Need for a U.S.-Iran Hotline
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Naval incidents in the Gulf have spotlighted the danger that a U.S.-Iranian skirmish could blow up into war. The two sides have little ability to communicate at present. They should hasten to design a military-to-military channel to lower the chances of inadvertent conflagration. What’s new? Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have repeatedly brought the two sides to the brink of open conflict. While neither government seeks a full-fledged war, a string of dangerous tit-for-tat exchanges amid mounting hostile rhetoric underscores the potential for a bigger military clash. Why does it matter? Due to limited communication channels between Tehran and Washington, an inadvertent or accidental interaction between the two sides could quickly escalate into a broader confrontation. The risk is especially high in the Gulf, where U.S. and Iranian military vessels operate close to one another. What should be done? The U.S. and Iran should open a military de-escalation channel that fills the gap between ad hoc naval communications and high-level diplomacy at moments of acute crisis. A mechanism facilitated by a third party might contain the risk of conflict due to misread signals and miscalculation.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
6. Commerce and Conflict: Navigating Myanmar’s China Relationship
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Isolated from the international community, Myanmar is deepening its dependence on China. But closer ties, Beijing-backed megaprojects and private Chinese investment carry both risks and opportunities. Both states should proceed carefully to ensure local communities benefit and avoid inflaming deadly armed conflicts. What’s new? The Rohingya crisis has strained Myanmar’s relations with the West and much of the Global South, pushing it to rely more on diplomatic and economic support from China. With a China-Myanmar Economic Corridor proceeding, and smaller private-sector projects proliferating, China’s investments in Myanmar are poised to shift into higher gear. Why does it matter? Many of these projects are located in or near areas of active armed conflict, and are often implemented without sufficient transparency, consultation with local communities or awareness of the local context. They risk empowering armed actors, heightening local grievances and amplifying anti-Chinese sentiment, which could lead to a popular backlash. What should be done? China needs to take more responsibility for ensuring that its projects benefit local communities and Myanmar’s economy, and do not exacerbate conflict. The Myanmar government should enhance its China expertise to negotiate and regulate projects more effectively. Both sides need to practice greater transparency and meaningful community consultation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
7. The Case for Kaesong: Fostering Korean Peace through Economic Ties
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Kaesong Industrial Complex, closed since 2016, was the most successful joint economic venture undertaken by North and South Korea. Reopening the manufacturing zone, with improvements to efficiency and worker protections, could help broker wider cooperation and sustain peace talks on the peninsula. What’s new? In 2016, South Korea shuttered the Kaesong Industrial Complex, breaking a modest but productive connection between the two Koreas. Crisis Group’s analysis sheds new light on the economic performance of firms operating at the Complex, demonstrating that the benefits for the South were greater than previously understood. Why does it matter? Beyond helping restart the stalled peace process, a deal to reopen the Complex in exchange for a proportionate step toward denuclearisation by North Korea could produce mutual economic benefits that help sustain South Korean support for talks and encourage Pyongyang’s commitment to peaceful relations. What should be done? As part of any deal to reopen the Complex, Seoul and Pyongyang should take steps to address problems that previously kept it from reaching its potential. The more efficiently, profitably and fairly it works, the better the Complex can help foster and maintain stable, peaceful relations between the Koreas.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
8. Resetting Pakistan's Relations with Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan have been largely characterised by mutual mistrust and devised through a narrow security prism. While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society. Yet, military-devised interventionist policies, based on perceived national security interests, including support for Afghan, mainly Pashtun, proxies, have marred the relationship. The incoming Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership's preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan's transition draws closer. By recalibrating relations toward economic ties and seeking solutions to the presence of millions of Afghan refugees on its soil, Pakistan could engage more constructively with its neighbour.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia
9. Old Scores and New Grudges: Evolving Sino-Japanese Tensions
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Enmity between China and Japan is hardening into a confrontation that appears increasingly difficult to untangle by diplomacy. Positions on the dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku island group are wide apart, and politically viable options to bridge the gap remain elusive. New frictions have arisen. China's announcement in November 2013 of an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), overlapping that of Japan's and covering the disputed islands, deepened Tokyo's anxiety that Beijing desires both territory and to alter the regional order. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's provocative visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in December 2013 triggered a bitter argument as to whether Japan has fully atoned for its Second World War aggression, a still vivid sore in the region. Amid heightened suspicion and militarisation of the East China Sea and its air space, the risks of miscalculation grow. Leadership in both countries needs to set a tone that prioritises diplomacy to calm the troubled waters: November's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit might provide such an opportunity.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, Tokyo, and Island
10. Water Pressures in Central Asia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Water has long been a major cause of conflict in Central Asia. Two states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have a surplus; the other three say they do not get their share from the region's great rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, which slice across it from the Tien Shan, Pamir Mountains, and the Hindu Kush to the Aral Sea's remains. Pressures are mounting, especially in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The population in Central Asia has increased by almost ten million since 2000, and limited arable land is being depleted by over-use and outdated farming methods. Extensive corruption and failing infrastructure take further toll, while climate change is likely to have long-term negative consequences. As economies become weaker and states more fragile, heightened nationalism, border disputes, and regional tensions complicate the search for a mutually acceptable solution to the region's water needs. A new approach that addresses water and related issues through an interlocking set of individually more modest bilateral agreements instead of the chimera of a single comprehensive one is urgently needed.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Water
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
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