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31. Haiti 2009: Stability at Risk

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A series of crises in 2008 have increased the potential for serious trouble in Haiti this year. The politically motivated, violent April riots against high living costs caused widespread disruption and suffering, toppled the government of Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard Alexis and forced postponement of a donor conference. In August and September, four tropical storms and hurricanes killed 800, affected nearly one million, exacerbated food shortages and pushed yet more Haitians into poverty. Extensive damage was caused to infrastructure and agriculture. The global financial crisis is making it difficult for donors to meet commitments and reducing diaspora remittances. President René Préval and Prime Minister Michèle Pierre-Louis, who took office in September 2008, need to secure the support of donors and parliament quickly for a wide-ranging stabilisation strategy or risk political instability and violence. These are major challenges in a year in which parliamentary elections will be held and constitutional reform is on the agenda.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, Disaster Relief, Economics, Politics, Post Colonialism, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

32. Israel's Religious Right and the Question of Settlements

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Benjamin Netanyahu is in a bind. Israel is facing arguably unprecedented pressure to halt all settlement activity, led by a new and surprisingly determined U.S. administration. But the prime minister also heads a distinctly right-wing coalition and faces intense domestic pressure from settlers and their allies. However important, what will emerge from current discussions between Washington and Jerusalem will only be step one in a long process designed to achieve a settlement freeze, settlement evacuation and a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinians. Understanding how Israel might deal with these challenges requires understanding a key yet often ignored constituency - its growing and increasingly powerful religious right.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East

33. Bosnia: A Test of Political Maturity in Mostar

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The administration of Mostar is collapsing, a warning sign for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). There has been no mayor, budget or functioning city council since an October 2008 election; tension threatens to poison relations between the leading Bosniak and Croat parties, which are coalition partners throughout BiH. The crisis is rooted in ethnic demographics, recent conflict history and a city statute that replicates many of the power-sharing rules that govern the state. Mostar's Croat majority, much like the state's Bosniak majority, chafes against these rules, considering them illegitimate and foreign-imposed, and seeks to force the Office of the High Representative (OHR – the international community's peace implementation body) to impose a solution on its behalf. Yet, a fair solution is within the council's competence and, like the city's chronic grievances, can best be handled without the High Representative using his extraordinary (Bonn) powers. The international community should deliver the message that fourteen years after the end of their war, it is time for the Bosnians to take responsibility for their own futures.
Topic:
Politics and Governance
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

34. Reforming the Judiciary in Pakistan

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pakistan's return to civilian government after eight years of military rule and the sidelining of the military's religious allies in the February 2008 elections offer an opportunity to restore the rule of law and to review and repeal discriminatory religious laws that restrict fundamental rights, fuel extremism and destabilise the country. Judicial reforms would remove the legal cover under which extremists target their rivals and exploit a culture of violence and impunity. Ensuring judicial independence would also strengthen the transition to democracy at a time when it is being undermined by worsening violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

35. Côte D'ivoire : Garantir Un Processus Électoral Crédible

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La Côte d'Ivoire reste sur la voie de la paix un an après la désignation du chef de l'ex-rébellion des Forces nouvelles (FN) Guillaume Soro au poste de Premier ministre par son adversaire d'alors, le président Laurent Gbagbo, mais on ne peut nullement exclure un retour à la violence. Tous les efforts doivent viser à créer les conditions politiques et sécuritaires pour des élections présidentielles et législatives qui, pour la première fois depuis le début du long proc essus de paix ivoirien, paraissent envisageables en moins d'un an. La convoitise du fauteuil présidentiel, pour lequel certains acteurs semblent prêts à tout, combinée à la présence de groupes armés et à l'impunité qui a pros péré au cours des dernières années, constituent un environnement potentiellement explosif. Le président du Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaoré, facilitateur et arbitre du processus de paix, ainsi que le Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU, doivent assumer leurs responsabilités pour préserver ce pays clé d'Afrique de l'ouest d'une grave rechute.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Politics
Political Geography:
France

36. Colombia: Making Military Progress Pay Off

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Almost six years of intense security operations against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) by the administration of President Álvaro Uribe are beginning to produce tangible results. Government forces killed several important rebel field commanders in 2007 and two members of the central command in March 2008, including second-in-command Raúl Reyes, and have severely disrupted insurgent communications, prompting a loss of internal cohesion and decreasing illegal revenues. However, this progress has come at the cost of severely deteriorating relations with Ecuador and Venezuela and increased risk of political isolation after the controversial bombing raid on Reyes's camp inside Ecuador. Military gains can pay off only if combined with a political strategy that consistently pursues a swap of imprisoned insurgents for hostages in FARC captivity, reestablishes much needed working relations with neighbours along borders and strongly advances integrated rural development to consolidate security and broaden Colombia's international support.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, Central America, and Venezuela

37. Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 29 March 2008 elections have dramatically changed Zimbabwe's political landscape. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe ran second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. The MDC went to the polls deeply divided, but Morgan Tsvangirai and his party regained their authority by winning despite an uneven playing field. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a countrywide crackdown. Zimbabwe is in constitutional limbo: it has no elected president or legally constituted cabinet, parliament has not been convened, and ZANU-PF and the MDC are challenging half the parliamentary results in court. African leaders, with support from the wider international community, must step in to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by facilitating an agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government that avoids the need for the run-off now scheduled for 27 June.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

38. Russia's Dagestan: Conflict Causes - Europe Report N°192

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Caucasus (Russian) Republic of Dagestan has avoided large-scale violence despite its proximity to Chechnya but is now suffering from escalating street warfare. Several hundred local and federal security forces, administrators, politicians, ministers and journalists have been killed since 2003. The militant Islamist organisation Shariat Jamaat is responsible for much of the violence. Some of its leaders fought in Chechnya, but its extremist propaganda is also attracting unemployed Dagestani youth. This home-grown extremism, espousing jihadi theology and employing terrorist methods, is a new phenomenon. Police efforts to end the street war have been ineffective and in some instances counter-productive. While supporting loyal local elites, Moscow can help halt the increase in violence if it implements an efficient anti-corruption policy and reintegrates youth into the economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Corruption, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

39. Egypt's Muslim Brothers: Confrontation or Integration?

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Society of Muslim Brothers' success in the November-December 2005 elections for the People's Assembly sent shockwaves through Egypt's political system. In response, the regime cracked down on the movement, harassed other potential rivals and reversed its fledging reform process. This is dangerously short-sighted. There is reason to be concerned about the Muslim Brothers' political program, and they owe the people genuine clarifications about several of its aspects. But the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) refusal to loosen its grip risks exacerbating tensions at a time of both political uncertainty surrounding the presidential succession and serious socio-economic unrest. Though this likely will be a prolonged, gradual process, the regime should take preliminary steps to normalise the Muslim Brothers' participation in political life.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

40. Bolivia: Rescuing the New Constitution and Democratic Stability -- Latin America Briefing N°18

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Evo Morales's efforts to consolidate sweeping reforms on the basis of a controversial new constitution have steered Bolivia into a cul-de-sac. On 8 December 2007, his supporters in the Constituent Assembly (CA) provisionally passed the text by running roughshod over procedures and virtually excluding opposition delegates. Weak attempts to bridge the deepening divide have failed, increasing potential for a violent confrontation both sides still seem to wish to avoid. Openly defying Morales in May 2008, however, Santa Cruz massively approved the department's autonomy statutes by referendum. Two other eastern lowland departments followed suit, with the fourth expected to do so on 22 June. Morales is pushing for final adoption of the constitution by referendum and a popular vote of confidence. The Organization of American States (OAS), the European Union (EU) and several European countries, and the Group of Friends (Argentina, Brazil and Colombia) should provide good offices to help the government and opposition reach urgent agreement on a revised constitution that can keep the country together.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America