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241. Change in the Offing: The Shifting Political Scene in Croatia

Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) has dominated Croatian political life since multi-party elections in April 1990 brought an end to communist rule. The HDZ has been a broad movement rather than a modern political party, representing a wide range of political views and interests, united behind its leader, President Franjo Tudjman, in the aim of achieving Croatian sovereignty and independence. In 1990-91, large areas of the country were taken over by rebellious Croatian Serbs, with support from Belgrade. Thus for most of the period of HDZ rule in Croatia, large chunks of the country remained outside Zagreb's control, and the overriding priority was to restore Croatia's territorial integrity, a goal which was finally achieved in January 1998. Croatia also became enmeshed in the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) as, supported by Croatia, the Bosnian Croats fought their erstwhile Bosniac allies in 1993-94. The obsession of Tudjman and the hard-line Herzegovina lobby in the HDZ with the dream of eventually detaching chunks of Bosnian territory and joining them with Croatia has been a persistent cause of international pressure on Croatia, as well as of division within Croatian politics.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

242. Breaking the Logjam: Refugee Returns to Croatia

Publication Date:
11-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As winter approaches in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), conditions for refugee returns to that country become increasingly difficult. In neighbouring Croatia, by contrast, the weather is generally milder so that, given political will, refugees should be able to return to their homes throughout the winter months. Moreover, the Croatian government is organising a reconstruction conference next month, at which it hopes to obtain pledges of international support to help rebuild its war-damaged country. Many refugees from Croatia are Serbs – of whom some 300,000 now reside in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Republika Srpska – who fled previously Serb-held regions of Croatia in the wake of the Croatian Army's 1995 military offensives.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia

243. Sandzak: Calm For Now

Publication Date:
11-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sandzak is an area within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that borders Serbia and Montenegro. It has a multicultural, multiethnic history and a majority population that is Muslim. Since the rise of Serbian strong-man Slobodan Milosevic to political power the majority Muslims have been the targets of coercion. For the time being, the major issue is Milosevic's continuing repression of human and political rights. Stating that, however, is not concluding that the area is entirely immune from the effects of a serious and full-blown military crisis.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

244. Intermediate Sovereignty As A Basis For Resolving The Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:
11-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The International Crisis Group has decided to publish the report, prepared by the Public International Law and Policy Group, as a contribution to the debate on the future status of Kosovo. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the International Crisis Group.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

245. 1998 Elections In Macedonia

Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonians go to the polls on 18 October 1998 in the first of two rounds of voting to elect 120 members of the country's parliament. The forthcoming poll is Macedonia's third general election since the disintegration of one-party communist rule. Moreover, it takes place in the shadow of ethnic violence between Serbs and ethnic Albanians in the neighbouring Serbian province of Kosovo and political instability in neighbouring Albania. Although Macedonia has managed to avoid the violent conflict which has afflicted the rest of the former Yugoslavia, its experience of democracy has so far been mixed. Politics is divided along ethnic lines and the last multi-party elections in 1994 were marred by accusations of fraud with two major parties boycotting the second round of voting.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania

246. Doing Democracy A Disservice: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The stakes in Bosnia's forthcoming elections, the fifth internationally-supervised poll since the end of the war, could not be higher, for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) and also for the international community. Having invested enormous financial and political capital in the peace process, the international community expects a return on its investment. That is why leading international figures including US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have entered the Bosnian political fray, urging Bosnians to back parties which "support Dayton" and threatening to withdraw aid if they do not. The elections will bring some changes so the event will be hailed as a triumph. However, they will not lay the ground for a self-sustaining peace process. That can only be achieved by political reform and, in particular, a redesign of the electoral system to guarantee Bosnians ethnic security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

247. Whither Bosnia?

Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite considerable progress since the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) in November 1995 in consolidating the peace and rebuilding normal life in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), international efforts do not appear to be achieving the goal of establishing Bosnia as a stable, functioning state, able at some point to run its own affairs without the need for continued international help. Peace, in the narrow sense of an absence of war, has been maintained; progress has been made in establishing freedom of movement throughout the country; joint institutions, including the state presidency, parliamentary assemblies and ministries, as well as a joint command for the armed forces of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation), have been established.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

248. Kosovo's Long Hot Summer: Briefing on military, humanitarian and political developments in Kosovo

Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
During the past six months, Serbia's southern, predominantly Albanian province of Kosovo has emerged from international obscurity to become the world's most reported conflict zone. That said, the history of ethnic animosity in this contested land, the complexity of competing Serb and Albanian claims and the speed with which the fighting has escalated make it difficult to keep up with the events, let alone analyse and try to understand them. What had, on 1 January 1998, been a long-standing ethnic Albanian political aspiration, namely an independent Kosovo, had evolved, by 1 March 1998, into the military objective of a popular insurrection and had by, 1 July 1998, become part of the cause of an impending humanitarian catastrophe with hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the fighting.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

249. Impunity In Drvar

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Croat extremists put Drvar into the spotlight in April 1998 with murders and riots against returning Serbs and the international community. It was the most serious outbreak of violence in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) for more than a year. Before the riots, Drvar – whose pre-war population was 97 per cent Serb – offered some cause for optimism: more Serbs had returned there than to any other region of the Federation outside of Sarajevo, and Serbs were looking to Drvar to help them assess the possibilities and risks for further return to the Federation and Croatia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

250. Changing Course?: Implications of the divide in Bosnian Croat politics

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The reintegration of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has been consistently obstructed by the main Bosnian Croat party, the Croat Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH). The HDZBiH is dominated by hard-liners who emphasise the consolidation of a pure Croat-inhabited territory centred on western Herzegovina, with the eventual aim of seceding and joining Croatia. This policy has received support from hard-line elements in Croatia, including the president, Franjo Tudjman.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

251. The Albanian Question In Macedonia: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country's very existence may be imperilled.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

252. A View from Tirana: The Albanian Dimension of Kosovo Crisis

Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Relations between Albanians from Albania proper and their ethnic kin over the border in Kosovo are complex. Despite obvious linguistic and cultural ties, the political division of the past 80 years and Albania's isolation during the communist period have caused the two communities to evolve in a very different fashion. Moreover, the arrival of Kosovo Albanians in Albania in recent years and their influence in some unsavoury spheres of the economy have caused resentment among Albanians from Albania proper, most of whom are too preoccupied with the daily struggle for existence to devote much time or thought to national questions. The upsurge in violence in Kosovo and the influx of several thousand Kosovo Albanian refugees have, nevertheless, reminded Albanians of the links between the communities and sympathy for their ethnic kin in Kosovo is especially strong in the border areas among the Ghegs, the northern Albanians.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Albania, and Tirana

253. The Konjic Conundrum: Why Minorities have Failed to Return to Model Open City

Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR's approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

254. A Tale of Two Cities: Return of Displaced Persons to Jajce and Travnik

Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Croat-controlled Jajce and Bosniac-controlled Travnik are both municipalities to which displaced persons who do not belong to the majority ethnic group have been returning in substantial numbers. Some 5,000 Bosniacs have returned to Jajce (prewar population, 44,900) and 2,500 Croats have returned to Travnik (pre-war population, 70,400) since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) came into force. These 7,500 “minority returns” constitute nearly 20 per cent of the total estimated 40,000 minority returns throughout the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), although the combined current populations of Jajce and Travnik (less than 75,000) account for less than 3 percent of the Federation's current population. These two municipalities in the Middle Bosnia Canton thus may be considered successful examples of minority return, if not yet reintegration. Nevertheless, at different times and to varying degrees, the authorities in Jajce and Travnik have obstructed return movements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

255. Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic's Gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo's Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

256. Again, the Visible Hand: Slobodan Milosevic's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo, an impoverished region at the southern tip of Serbia, is drawing ineluctably closer to war with each passing day. By night, men smuggle guns and ammunition from Albania to an Albanian militia determined to wrest Kosovo away from Serbia. The militia's fighters, angered by years of Serbian police violence against Kosovo's 90-percent Albanian majority, have killed Serbian police officers and murdered Albanians deemed to be loyal to the Serbian state.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

257. A Hollow Promise? Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar

Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In Bosnia's local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe